公司如何为股东创造财富？2026年7月24日

其实有非常多这类公司的例子，我一直都……怎么说呢，我能数出一大堆这类案例拿来吐槽。

And so and there's so there's there's there's a lot of examples of companies like that, which actually I mean, I've always I love to what do I I've got a thousand whipping boys.

你懂吧？

Know?

AMP就是个很典型的例子

AMP is a good one.

你明白吗？

You know?

就像这样，对。

It's just like Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这对股东来说简直糟透了，但你知道，这是一个非常大的组织，它让很多人以及他们的孩子都上了学，而且它自力更生，为社会创造了价值。

It's been absolutely terrible for for shareholders, but there's you know, it's a very big organization that has put a lot of people and their children through school and, you know, and it has it has it has it has stood on its own feet and provided value for society.

好吧，即便这样，我们说的可是AMP啊。

Well, even that's we are talking AMP.

至少在名义上，它为社会创造了价值，尽管股东自己并没有从中获益。

At least notionally taken created value for society even if shareholders themselves haven't created value.

不过呢，我其实是个特别注重细节的人。

So but but I I I I've very, very quick detailer.

我们显然在讨论股东的视角。

We're obviously talking about shareholder perspectives.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Yes.

我再给你举个金融公司的例子，那就是先锋集团。

I'll also tell you about another great example of finance companies is Vanguard.

对。

Right.

这是一家非营利机构，却创造了非凡的价值。

This this is a not for profit company that has created extraordinary value.

没错。

Exactly.

像招聘员工这些我做过的事，你知道，沃伦·巴菲特和杰克·博格尔，他可能是为美国人赚钱最多的人，或者至少是这种说法。

Provision, hiring people, all the things I've done have been you know, Warren Buffett to Jack Bogle is probably the man who made more money for Americans than anyone else or some some version of that quote.

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

它没给股东赚过一分钱，因为根本没有股东。我们都以为基金持有人拥有基金，但实际上它是一家非营利公司。

It it it and and made not a dollar for shareholders because there aren't any we all thought that the fund holders own the own the funds, but effectively, it's a not for profit company.

所以是的。

So it's Yeah.

你完全可以为社会、客户、员工和供应商创造巨大的财富，而不一定非要给股东创造金钱或财富。

You can absolutely create massive wealth for society, for your customers, for your employees, for your suppliers, and not necessarily create money, create wealth for shareholders.

这在社会层面上并不是一件悲剧。

That's not a tragedy at a social level.

但如果你是投资者，你肯定会在意这些。

But if you're an investor, you kinda care.

所以就像你说的，当我们回到

So that's, as you say, when we get back to

这个点的时候。

this one.

它也可以被非常功利地利用。

It can be used very cynically as well.

我的意思是，我并不是要全盘否定整个行业，但确实有一些非营利机构喜欢一走了之。

There are I mean, I'm not putting a blight on the entire sector industry, but there are sort of not for profits out there that love to walk away.

我不是非营利机构。

I'm not for profit.

我不是非营利机构。

I'm not for profit.

我就想问问，你和CEO的薪水到底是多少？

It's like, how much are you and the CEO pay again?

感觉你们从中赚了不少钱，是吧？

Feels like you guys are profiting quite a lot for that, you know?

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

总之，

Anyway,

我们来聊聊这个。

let's talk about that.

好的。

Alright.

那咱们接着聊聊再投资。

So let's go to reinvestment.

说白了，再投资就是想办法把现有的业务做得更红火。

Reinvestment really comes down to basically juicing the current operation in as many words.

你可以稍微换种方式来做。

You can do things slightly differently.

这不是去买别的东西，也不是硬加个什么东西。

This is not buying something else or bolting it on.

我们花了10块，收回了20块。

This is saying, right, we we we spent 10, we got 20 back.

有了这多出来的10块，明年我们就不花10块了，直接花20块。

With that extra $10, one of the things we can do is next year, than spending 10, we're gonna spend 20.

这样一来，希望我们能收回40块、30块，或者其他数字，具体要看其他各种因素，我大概意思是……

And in doing so, hopefully, we're gonna get 40 back or 30 back or whatever other number you come up with, depending on your whole of other things, I'll sort get

至少比我们一开始投的多，还得够抵消通胀。

the More than we started with at very minimum and enough to account for inflation.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

资金成本。

The cost of capital.

对。

Yeah.

利息成本。

Cost of interest.

所以这就是我们现在要做的。

So that's what we wanna do now.

那具体是什么意思呢？

Now, what does that mean?

这得看公司具体情况。

It depends on the company.

它可以指给员工做培训，也可以指为品牌投入广告和营销费用。

It can mean everything from training your staff, investing in advertising and marketing for your brand.

甚至可以是建一座新的钢铁厂。

It can mean building a new steel mill.

它也可能意味着那个‘是的’。

It can mean the Yep.

研发和招聘。

Research, develop, hiring.

所有这些事情，你都是在下注，心里想着：嘿。

All of the things that you kind of make a bet and say, hey.

我手头多了一笔钱。

I got this extra money.

我以前总说，如果我有更多钱，我就去干这件事，因为我觉得这么做能带来远超投入的回报。

And I'd always said if I had more money, I would go and do this because I think doing that would create, you know, a disproportionate amount of money, I.

嗯。

E.

比单纯解决问题更重要的是，我们要把这些回报回馈给股东。

More than an issue, so we put back in for shareholders.

这听起来其实再自然不过了。

And it kind of feels really obvious.

对吧？

Right?

但这很重要，因为说到再投资，Xero 是个很好的例子，别管股价了。

But it's an important one because when you think about Xero is a great example here when it comes to reinvestment in in the context of, again, putting the share the share price aside.

作为一家公司，他们心想：

As a business, they kinda went, hey.

我们现在本可以赚更多，但我们把所有利润甚至更多都重新投入了。

We could make more money now, but we're reinvest all that profit and more.

我们暂时会亏钱。

We're lose money for a bit.

花钱去获取客户，这么说听起来有点功利，但确实如此。

Buying, effectively creating of course, buying buying customers sounds a little cynical.

我们主动走出去拉更多客户，因为我们相信，现在花的钱将来会回本。

But literally, going out there and grabbing more customers because we figure if we spend money now getting them, that'll pay us back over time.

我们是在为未来的利润投资。

We're investing in our future profits.

现在虽然亏钱，但我们这么做是为了确保能最大化客户数量，进而提升未来的收入，最终实现利润最大化。

're lose money now, but we're doing that to make sure we can maximize the number of customers, therefore, future revenue, therefore, maximizing future profits.

这并不影响你关于现金流折现的观点。

They're not withstanding your point at discounting cash flow.

我就不往那个方向深入讨论了，但只要回报来得够快，让这一切变得值得，那就值得去做。

Not gonna go back down that path, but as long as you get it soon enough to make it worthwhile, then that's worth doing.

亚马逊，我持有他们的股票。

Amazon, I own shares.

再举个例子。

Another example.

亏了好多年，才建立起全球最大的零售公司，而且现在还在疯狂扩张。

Lost money for ages, building the world's largest retail company and still growing it absolute like the clappers.

比如投资亚马逊云服务。

Investing in Amazon Web Services.

他们当时心想，嘿，咱们得搞搞数据中心业务。

When they come out, hey, we should do some data center stuff.

那就这么办。

Let's do that.

零售业的利润被拿去收购或建设这项业务了。

The retail profits went into buying or building that business.

所以再投资往往是在同一个行业里，亚马逊就是个很好的例子，Jira 也是。

And so reinvestment is often in the same industry, and Amazon's a great example here Jira's great example.

我们把赚到的利润重新投进去，加大研发投入，增加编程力量，多做营销来吸引客户。

We're take the profits we make and throw it back into more r and d, back into more programming, back into more marketing to grab customers.

或者我们可以像亚马逊那样，在不同领域对同一家公司进行投资，比如他们总是需要额外的计算能力。

Or can we investing in the same company with a different area like Amazon saying, we'd always extra compute capacity.

我们只要多建几个数据中心就行，因为我们可以把这种计算能力卖出去，这样肯定没问题。

We're just gonna build more data centers because we can we we can sell this compute capacity, and we should be fine.

这种再投资的组合，理论上如果做得好，就能起到乘数效应。

And that combination of reinvestment is how, in theory, if they do it well, it's it's it's a multiplier.

你实际上就是在试图让资金成倍增长。

You literally are trying to multiply the money.

对吧？

Right?

这就是复利的效果。

It's compounding

复利就是这么运作的。

That's how compounding

没错。

Right.

这会让我们的努力产生复利效应。

It's compounding our work.

对。

Yeah.

对的

Yep.

其实确实是这样，所有环节都是围绕这个逻辑来的

I mean, it's everything.

我们常说再投资，但其实你刚才说的所有情况，对普通投资也完全适用。

We we say reinvestment, but it's this everything you said is true of investment.

哪怕在公司刚成立的时候也是这样。

Even like when the company was Yes.

刚成立的时候。

Formed

对。

Yes.

没错就是这样。

That's right.

你懂的吧？

You know?

贝佐斯当时说，他就要做这件事。

Bezos said, I'm gonna do this thing.

说起来啊，总得有人先投一笔钱进去才行。

And it's like, well, someone had to put some money in.

那当时的考量是什么？

And what was the calculus?

我觉得会有更多的资金流入。

Well, I think more money will come out.

现在的情况是事后诸葛亮，公司自身已经在内部产生现金流了，但背后的逻辑其实是一样的。

Now we're now talking after the fact where the company is itself generating money internally, but the calculus is the same.

事实上，这也正是为什么董事会和高层管理者的职责始终是关键所在。

In fact, it's the only it's why it always comes back to what the job of board and senior management is.

其实说白了就是资金配置。

It's really just capital allocation.

我们只是换了个高大上的说法，意思是你现在手里握着主动权。

We just have fancy way of saying, look, you've got your hands on the strings here.

这听起来很简单，但你要用这个视角去审视经手的每一个决定：核心问题就是，我该怎么分配有限的资源？

All you have to do is if it's easy, but all you have to do or the lens in which any decision that comes across your desk, the only thing that really matters is what do I do with my finite resources?

如果我承担的风险换来的回报不够好，还不如市场上的其他选择，那我就不该继续投入，而应该把利润分给股东。

If I can't get a good return relative to the risks that I'm taking and better than alternatives out there in the market, I don't wanna jump to point three, but I've should pay dividend.

就像那样。对。

Like that Mhmm.

就像。是的。

Like Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

除了这些，你还有其他工作要做吗？

What else are you you're not paid to do other things, right, other than that.

再说一次，这不算什么大事，我也不想把道德层面扯进来，但这就是你被雇用的原因。

And, again, not big I don't wanna bring the moral dimension into this, but that's that's why you were employed.

股东们聚在一起。

The the shareholders got together.

他们选出了董事会，然后说，找个能最好地经营这家公司的人，这就是他们该做的事。

They elected a board, and they said, hire someone who's gonna run this business in the most that that's that's what they do.

这种事经常发生。

Happens.

感觉特别像那种冷冰冰的大公司作风，之类的。

And it feels really evil and corporate y and stuff.

你懂的？

You know?

但要是爸妈在摆个柠檬水摊子，那感觉就不一样了，对吧。

Yet if mom and dad were running a lemonade stand somewhere, it's like, yeah.

对。

Yeah.

要是没人买柠檬水，就别再进柠檬了。

Not buying more lemons if no one's buying any lemonade.

对吧？

Right?

就是那种特别特别特别明显的事儿。

Like, it's it's just it's very, very, very obvious kind of stuff.

完全同意。

So absolutely.

没错。

Absolutely.

还有，我们得把这些荒谬的观念也彻底摒弃掉。

And and the other thing we've got to get rid of here too is the silly notions.

顺便说一句，对于在座的各位长期投资者来说，千万别对特定的财报周期过于痴迷，这其实是个巨大的优势。

By the way, it's a huge edge for any long term investor that's out there of getting too obsessed over particular reporting periods.

毕竟当我们提到盈亏时，总得有个界限，对吧？

Because when we say profit or loss, I mean, have to draw the line somewhere, right?

对。

Yes.

所以我经常遇到这种情况，因为我投资了很多亏损的公司，对吧？

So I get it all the time because I invest in a lot of loss making companies, Right?

那他们是在亏损吗？

Well, are they making a loss?

我当时就想，是啊。

I was like, yeah.

但我觉得，等最终盖棺定论的时候，大家会说，是啊，前几年一直在烧钱，之后几十年却源源不断地产生现金流。

But I don't think I think when the final obituary is written, it will be, yeah, they bled money for a few years and then they gush cash for many decades afterwards.

你懂的吧？

That's, you know?

说到这儿，你刚才提到了亚马逊。

And so, like, oh, but you you mentioned Amazon.

亚马逊就是这里最典型的标杆案例，没错。

The the the gold standard of of examples here is like, yeah.

结果怎么样？

How did that work out?

结果好得不得了。

Worked out incredibly well.

确实。

Mhmm.

但那些只投盈利公司的人，就错过了这类机会。

But the person who went, I only invest in profit making companies, you miss out on those kind of opportunity.

而且，再说一遍，我并不是想嘲笑那些只投资盈利公司的投资者。

And, again, I'm not trying to make fun of people who only invest in in profitable companies.

如果你风险厌恶，这样做其实有非常充分的理由，毕竟……

There's actually a very good reason to do that if you're risk averse and and rah rah rah rah.

但我的重点就是想强调你刚才说的那一点，我要尽可能用力地强调这一点。

But but the the the the point is just to hit what you said really hard or as hard as I as I possibly can.

我手里有这笔钱。

I've got this money.

这是一种完全可替代、流动性极强的资本形式，我可以通过多种方式将其转化为实际投入，比如购置资本设备、投入人力资本，或者直接以现金分红的形式发给股东。

It's a completely fungible liquid form of capital that I can crystallise in any number of ways, in capital equipment, in human capital, or just a cash dividend to shareholders.

关键是要看哪种方式能让企业所有者获得最高的投资回报。

What's gonna give the owners of the business the best bang for the buck.

这是我的职责，这也是给所有在任的CEO和董事会成员的一点提醒，对吧？

And my job, and this is note to all CEOs and boards that are out there, right?

你们的工作是专注于那些只有你们才有机会去执行的投资项目。

Your job is to only prosecute investments that you uniquely have the opportunity to prosecute.

如果我发现我旗下的某家公司，哪怕它盈利状况非常好，却说要转型做私募股权或风投，开始去收购其他公司的股份，我会非常不满。

I would be very upset if one of the companies I had, even if it was a very profitable company said, you know what, we're going to start we're going to start acting as a private equity venture company and we're to start buying shares of other companies.

乍一听，你可能会想，干嘛不行呢？

Now on one hand you go, well, why not?

我们的目标不就是把资本效益最大化吗？

Isn't the goal to multiply your capital as best you can?

也许他们觉得这才是最好的做法。

Maybe they think that's the best way of doing it.

也许吧，但如果他们本身就不是私募股权公司，那你可就真的超出自己的专业领域了。

It's like, maybe, but if they're not a private equity company in the first place, you're really getting outside of your wheelhouse.

我会希望得到一些非常有力的保证，证明你确实具备某种能力，能让你比我，或者比那些专门做这行的人做得更好的信心。

I would wanna have some very strong assurances that you have some ability that gives you confidence in being able to do that better than I could or better than the people who focus purely on that could do.

也许你可以，也许你真的可以。

Maybe you can, maybe you can.

但跟你说实话，当我当初买下那家在线零售商的时候，我压根没想过会有人替我去做中国的私募股权投资。

But I tell you what, when I rocked up and bought a online retailer, I really wasn't thinking about someone making private equity investments in China on my behalf.

也许吧，你确实有可能做得成。

That's, you know so so maybe you maybe you can do it.

但你得给我一个足够充分的理由才行。

But gosh, give me a bloody good reason to do it.

如果你说不出个所以然，那我要么自己干，要么就交给专业私募公司。

And and that is in fact, if you can't give it to me and then I will either do it myself or then I will give it to the private equity.

我也不太明白为啥非得拿私募举例子，但事实就是如此。

I mean, I don't know why I'm going with the private equity example, but that but but that's just it.

真正有意思的是，当一家公司只专注于某一领域时——我得想想具体例子。

Where it gets very interesting is when you have companies only, I'm trying to think of an example.

就说亚马逊吧，我们就拿它当例子。

I mean, Amazon, let's just stick with that.

亚马逊在投资数据中心方面，成功的机会比我和行业新人要大得多。

Amazon has a really wonderful it has a it has a higher degree of success chance of success than I do or people new to the industry doing investing in data centers.

为什么呢？

Why?

是的

Yeah.

因为它有规模，有经验，有知识产权，已经积累起来了。

Because it's got scale, it's got experiences, it's got IP, it's built up.

它有人才，有专业知识。

It's got the people, it's got the know how.

还有客户。

Customers.

成为挑战者。

Become a challenger.

当然可以。

Absolutely they can.

幸好还有这样的公司，对吧？

And thank God there are, right?

但关键就在这里，我希望你能把资本配置到这里，或者把资金再投入进来，这跟我们之前说的是一致的，因为你更贴近这个领域。

But it's sort of like, that's where I want you to to allocate capital or to reinvest that capital to stick to our point because you're you're closer to it.

你是这方面的专家。

You're an expert in it.

这就是你的专长所在。

That's your that's your thing.

这正是我需要你去做的事。

That's that's what I need you to do.

这里还有另一个层面的抽象，非常值得提一下，因为这是 Motley Fool 的金钱播客，我们按约定俗成必须提到那个以 B 开头的词。

One other level of abstraction here, which is very much worth mentioning because this is the Motley for money podcast and we are contractually obliged to mention the b word.

那我们就提一下。

So let's mention it.

不是那个以B开头的词，是巴菲特的那个B开头的词。

Not that b word, the Buffett b word.

哦。

Oh.

那个B让你紧张了吧？我猜到了。

The the b had you worried, didn't I?

不是。

No.

你得先放下那些合同。

You gotta reject contracts for a second.

巴菲特有一个很特别的做法，他的律师们正在起草新版的方案。

Buffett has a very the the lawyers are drafting up a new version of it.

你别担心。

Don't you worry.

巴菲特有一个特别有意思的模式：他跟旗下所有公司说，只要你们经营完业务后还有多余的资金，就全部转给我。

Buffett has this really interesting model where what he does is he basically says to all of the businesses in that conglomerate is if you've got any spare money after running your business, send it my way.

除非你们能找到特别优质的再投资机会，并且得说服我。

Unless you can you've got an incredibly high quality reinvestment opportunity and you have to make the case to me.

如果你们找不到，那我就来处理。

If you don't, I'll do it.

伯克希尔之所以能成为这么强大的力量，是因为它能说：这边是糖果业务

And what makes what makes Berkshire such a force of, you know, a a powerhouse is that it can say, candy business over here

对。

Yep.

非常好。

Is is great.

现金流源源不断。

Gushes cash.

其实没什么增长机会。

It's just not a lot of growth opportunities.

我们当然可以再投资，但高质量的项目实在不多。

Actually, we could reinvest it, but there's not really a lot of high quality things.

我为什么不把这笔钱拿过来，投到铁路这类业务里呢？

Why don't I take the cash from that and put it over here in a railway business or something like that?

这就是一个精明资本配置者掌舵的多元化集团的威力——能把不同业务的现金流灵活调配。

And that's there is the power of a conglomerate with a very savvy capital allocator at the helm because they can now use cash flows from disparate entities and direct.

而且这不只是看内部，比如问：糖果公司能不能再开一条生产线？

And then it's not just a question of looking internally to sort of say, well, gosh, can Seas Candy open up another production line somewhere?

而是要从我手里所有的企业里，看看有没有值得再投资的机会，对不对？

It's like, can I have reinvestment opportunity in my broader stable of enterprises?

所以还是那句话，核心就是得有一个懂行的人来掌舵，做好资金分配。

And and again, the key thing here is having a competent capital allocator at at the helm.

没错。

Correct.

就是这样。

Correct.

说到这我得提一提西农集团，他们就是很好的例子。

You've got and what what shout out to Wesfarmers.

我说的这种模式，和他们的情况其实差不了太远。

I mean, not not mile away.

这里要提一下索尔·帕茨，他的思路和这个逻辑完全一致。

Shout out to Sol Patz, not mile away whatsoever.

在这方面，伯克希尔·哈撒韦可不是独一份的。

And there's there's they're not they're not Robinson Crusoe on on this, Berkshire Hathaway.

他们就是最擅长做这件事的。

They're just they're just the best best at doing it.

所以说了这么多，希望大概能说明为什么再投资这么重要，以及为了让再投资变得合理，重点应该放在哪里。

So that's a long ramble, but hopefully, it sort of makes the case as to why reinvestment is so important and and and where that reinvestment needs to be focused for it to be sensible, I guess.

对。

Yeah.

我喜欢这个观点。

I like that.

我觉得这真的非常重要。

I think it's really important.

是的，我也这么认为。

I think yeah.

我觉得你说得太对了，伙计。

And I think you I think you've nailed it, mate.

我觉得企业集团如果运营得当，其讽刺之处在于……

I think conglomerates the irony of the irony of conglomerates is run well.

这些东西真的很棒。

These things are great.

七十年代和八十年代的时候，我们经历过一个阶段，那时候每家公司都搞多元化经营。

The the we went through a stage in the seventies and eighties where every company was a conglomerate.

对吧？

Right?

我早些年曾在亨氏工作过。

I I used work for Heinz way back in the day.

那在斯坦利葡萄酒公司的时候，他们具体是做什么的？

And what were they in Stanley wines?

事后大家纷纷质疑，说亨氏怎么跑去经营葡萄酒公司了？

And it's kind of in the event or after the fact it was poo pooed is what was Heinz doing running a wine company?

说实话，他们完全有能力，也没有理由不去经营这块业务。

And the honest answer is there's no reason they couldn't or shouldn't run that.

毕竟亨氏这个品牌早就跨足多个品类了，比如烤豆、冷冻蔬菜、番茄酱、番茄沙司等等。

I mean, they're already running Heinz is a brand across multiple categories already, baked beans and and frozen vegetables and tomato sauce and ketchup and whatever else.

他们为什么就不能把斯坦利葡萄酒经营得很好呢？

Why couldn't they own and run Stanley Wines really well?

根本没有理由不行。

There's no reason why not.

事实上，正如你所说，如果某个业务有盈余资金，而另一个业务有好的投资机会，把钱挪过去再合适不过了。

In fact, to your point, taking money from one and putting it the other if there's if there's excess cash makes perfect sense if there's a great reinvestment opportunity.

问题在于，这些 conglomerates 是被当成帝国来打造的，而不是真正能产生现金流、或者需要大量资本支持的业务。

The problem was that conglomerates got built as empires rather than as genuinely, you know, cash generating businesses or businesses that could use a heap of capital.

你举的例子特别好，Rem。

And you make a great example, Rem.

我再进一步说一点。

I'm gonna take it a step further.

不只是 Seas Candy 能产生大量现金，他们还试过向美国东海岸扩张，但没成功。

Not only is Seas Candy throw off a lot of cash, they tried to expand at the East Coast Of The US, didn't work.

这本来是个加州本地的生意，不管怎么试，就是出不了加州，别人也不感兴趣，可加州人却特别爱它。那这笔钱他们该怎么用呢？

It's a it's a California business that seems to be always stuck there no matter every time they try to expand it, no one else wants it, but the Californians love the hell out of So what do they do with the money?

他们买了一家铁路公司。

Well, they bought a railroad.

他们收购了伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路公司，也就是BNSF，这生意本质上就需要持续不断的资本投入。

They bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe, BNSF, and that business is literally needs ongoing capital reinvestment.

巴菲特当时就想：等等。

And Buffett's going, well, hang on.

我有个生意一直在源源不断地产生现金。

I got a business that throws off cash.

我可以买下这个公司，然后以比任何人都低的成本把钱再投回去。

I can buy this business, and I can reinvest in that business cheaper than anybody else can.

这么做我能赚更多钱。

I can make more money doing it.

为什么？

Why?

因为我有取之不尽的资本来源。

Because I've an eternal source of capital.

所以你就慢慢明白了，不仅能够根据需求和意愿来分配资源，你简直就是个神射手。

And so you start to see how not only can you allocate according to need and desire and kind of, you know, the the you're the the sharpshooter.

对吧？

Right?

盯着四处的目标，挑出最合适的那一个。

Looking at different targets all over the place and choosing one.

你还能真正打造出一个需要资金投入、又能产生回报的生意，这正是内部再投资的核心理念。

You can actually genuinely create a business that needs that capital and and can then generate returns on that capital, which is the very idea of reinvestment and funded internally.

我的意思是，管理得好的政府确实很棒。

I mean, well run governments are wonderful things.

因为都在同一个公司架构内，还能享受税收优惠。

There's tax advantages in them because it's all inside the same corporate structure.

更多公司理应这么做，但问题是，能像这样高效配置资本的人实在太少了——这也是个短板，不过我们马上会谈到收购。

More more companies should have them except that there aren't as many great capital allocators as you'd need to do and this is the this is the downside, by the We'll get to acquisitions.

咱们就趁这个机会，顺理成章地转入这个话题吧。

Let's let's do it because this is a great way to segue into it.

并购这门艺术非常棒，前提是你得找到那种明显被低估的资产，或者你能通过收购来发挥自身独特优势的标的。

The art of acquisitions is fantastic if you can find an asset that's just straight out cheap or an asset that you can buy and add something you mentioned you things you can do uniquely well.

你完成了一笔收购。

You make an acquisition.

那这笔收购对我的业务有什么意义呢？

Why would that acquisition make sense for my business?

结果发现，我已经服务着那些客户，或者我已经在那片区域有了布局。

Well, it turns out I already service those customers or I'm already in that geography.

或者反过来想，我还没进入那个地区的市场，所以我可以同时兼顾两地。

Or the flip side might be, I'm not in that other geography yet, and so I can be in both places.

我可以把两边的机会都抓住。

I can harness the opportunity for both.

我可以利用这种规模和广度。

I can use that scale and that breadth.

我可以带来特定的制造能力。

I can bring a particular manufacturing capability.

我可以实现垂直整合。

I can vertically integrate.

我们之前跟很多人聊过这个话题，有人觉得必和必拓应该自己生产钢材。

We've had a lot of conversation about that with people saying BHP should make its own steel.

不过后来必和必拓决定，做钢材的回报率不高，所以就把这块业务剥离了。

Now BHP has decided we can't get a good return on steel, so they divested it.

顺便提一下，另一种创造价值的方式其实是出售资产。

That's the other way, by the way, you can create value is actually selling assets.

我们可能不会花太多时间聊这个，但你完全可以一边做收购，一边做拆分、或是出售业务，这些操作可以同步推进。

We're gonna probably touch too much on that, but you could do acquisitions and and demerge or or or sales at the same time.

但核心思路其实是想清楚：我们到底要怎么创造价值？

But the idea of being able to say, what is it that we how can we create value?

坦白说，巴菲特现在做的生意大部分都是收购。

Now, Buffett is largely, frankly, he's doing acquisitions.

这些被收购的公司之间基本没什么协同效应，甚至可以说几乎没法互相助力。

Most of them don't have any or many at all opportunities to help each other.

他持有

He owns

他还拥有铁路公司。

he owns railroads.

这话说得还挺有意思的。

Are the cool things that say.

他掌握的都是能产生协同效应的资产。

He owns synergies.

对。

Yes.

他拥有一家铁路公司。

Owns a railroad.

他还拥有一家巧克力公司。

He owns a chocolate company.

他做贸易生意。

He owns a trading business.

他拥有保险公司。

He owns Insurance.

保险公司。

Insurance.

这根本没有任何协同效应。

There there is no synergy at all.

对吧？

Right?

所以，巴菲特就是在直白地说，有一块钱的东西，我只要九毛就能买到。

So, Buffett is just literally saying, there's a dollar I can buy for 90¢.

而且因为我的业务能产生现金流，它给我的钱越多，我就越去买那些九毛块的东西，毕竟为什么不买呢？

And because my business are throwing off cash, the more dollars it throws me, the more 90¢ dollars I'm gonna go and buy because why the hell wouldn't I?

所以这纯粹是一种投资回报，至少在收购方看来，这东西便宜得客观。

So there's there's just purely an investment return that is just objectively cheap, at least according to the businesses buying it.

不过，大多数非投资控股类的贸易公司，通常应该去寻找那些对自己有意义、能发挥自身优势的收购机会。

More often than not, though, most trading businesses that aren't investment conglomerates should be looking for acquisitions that make sense for them, that they have a particular opportunity to utilize.

别忘了，别人也能买下这个收购标的。

Because don't forget, everyone else can buy that acquisition as well.

如果那个稻草人公司挂牌出售，而The Motley Fool出价太低，我们就会说：对，没错。

If if straw man's on the block and the Motley Fool decides to buy it and and he goes, he goes nowhere near enough money, we go, yeah.

不好意思。

Sorry.

这话说得对。

That's a good

但咱们就假设它确实是吧。

But let's Let's assume it was.

The Motley Fool也好，其他人也好，谁都能买。

The monthly fool anyone else can buy it.

你知道的，任何一只短期股票，谁都能买，随时都能买。

You know, a short one can be bought by anybody, anywhere.

但在这个情况下，关键是他们并不打算多出钱，或者运气好的话，他们是唯一知道这标的在出售的人。

But in this case, they're you know, the idea is not so I will pay more for it, or if they're lucky, we're the only buyer who knows it's for sale.

我们先开个优厚的条件，看看能不能把这事儿谈下来。

We're make a sweet offer and see if we can buy this thing.

但我们只在划算的时候才做，别盲目出手。

But we're only gonna we should only do it if and when it makes sense.

对RAM也是一样。

And the same for RAM.

你懂的，连拖把和食品一起买下来。

You know, buy mop and food as well.

我这边有个稳定的客户群，还有一个很棒的网站，再加上我正在做的编程项目——剧透一下，马上就要发布了。

Guys, I've got this customer base, and I've got this great website, and I've got this great programming work that I'm doing, spoiler alert, that's coming out soon.

所以，我确实有些方面特别在行。

And so, there's always things I'm really good at this.

我从多燃料项目里想要的，就是那些额外的客户，或者类似的人群。

What I want from the multi fuel is those extra customers or those people or whatever it is.

所以我有理由出更高的价格，或者能比别人用同样的钱赚得更多。

And I can justify either paying more for it or I can generate more returns from it than somebody else can for the same price.

所以这事值得我去做。

So it's worth me doing.

因此，在这种情况下，只要花一美元能换来超过一美元的价值，这就会成为这四个领域里最核心的理念——收购确实能为股东创造价值。

So acquisitions in that case, as long as you're putting down a dollar and getting more than a dollar back in value, that's gonna be the the seminal kind of idea across all four categories here, then acquisitions can absolutely create value for shareholders.

如果你从自己的角度想想，这其实显而易见。

I mean, it's so obvious if you think about it from your own perspective.

没错。

True.

如果我们把每个人看作一个小公司，我通过工作赚了点钱，或者投资运气好，现在手头有了一些积蓄。

We're all little corporations, if you want to think of it that way and I've earned some money by doing a job or maybe I've had some luck with some investments and now it's like, oh, I've got some money.

那这笔钱我该怎么用？

What do I do with it?

我可以现在就花掉。

I can consume it right now.

这没什么不对。

Nothing wrong with that.

人总得生活，得好好享受人生。

You've got to live, got to enjoy your life.

或者我可以把它重新投入到我自己的小投资计划里。

Or I can reinvest it in my own little investment enterprise.

没错。

Right.

那你打算怎么做呢？

And so what are you going to do?

我会审视自己手头的各种机会，然后做出选择。至少，如果我保持理性，我会把资源分配给我能判断出的风险收益比最好的项目。

I'm going to look around at my opportunity set and I'm going to go with the, well, at least if I'm rational, I'm going to allocate to the best risk reward proposition as I can discern it.

这就是你作为个人在做的事情。

Now that's what you're doing as a person.

公司也应该这么做。

It's also what a company should do as well.

坦白说，政府也应该这样做。

Frankly, it's what a government should do.

说实话，这是唯一合乎理性的做法。

Frankly, it's the only rational thing to do.

我的意思是，

I mean,

这是唯一合乎理性的做法。

it's the only rational thing to do it.

我刚才那话说得有点绝对了，收回一点。

I'll walk that back a little bit.

有些东西根本没法用金钱来衡量。

There are some things that just don't show up in monetary unit.

我们还有一些更宏观的社会目标。

There's some broader societal goals that we can have.

我绝对不是想低估这些目标。

I definitely don't want to diminish that.

但总的来说，为了保持思路清晰，事情就该这么办。

But generally speaking, just to keep things clean, that's exactly what it has to be.

因为我觉得，那些在这方面成功的人，之所以能再次成功，是因为他们真的创造了大量价值。

Because I think about it, those who were successful at it were successful again, because you created a lot of value.

换句话说，你希望谁来分配资本？

It's like, and do you want who do you want allocating capital?

说得更简单点，你希望谁来决定未来会创造什么样的价值？

Or let's put it more simply, who do you want deciding what future value will be created?

是选那个屡次创造巨大机会和财富的人，还是选那个每次给一百块都把它搞砸的人？

It's like the person who has had an incredible track record of creating incredible opportunity and wealth for people or the person who every time you give them a $100, they they screw it up against the wall.

哦，明白了。

Like, oh, okay.

我当然选前者。

I'll take it to other.

这其实有种达尔文式的筛选机制，不过这是好事。

And and that's and that's and that's there's there's a Darwinian sort of degree to kind of In a good way though.

就像羚羊想跑得更快，它就得朝着某个方向进化一样。

It's sort of like if we want to if the gazelle wants to get faster and faster, you know, it's got to evolve in a certain direction.

换句话说，如果企业想参与其中，如果我们想要创造越来越多的价值和繁荣，我们就需要朝着特定的方向进化，让那些擅长创造价值并将这些价值再投资以创造更多价值的人脱颖而出。

If businesses want in in other words, if we want to have more and more value and more and more prosperity, we need to evolve in a certain direction where those that are really good at creating value and then reinvesting that created value for more value.

这会形成一个美妙的飞轮效应。老天爷啊，千万别打断它，因为这样做会让每个人都过得更好。

There's a wonderful flywheel that just don't for goodness sake, do not interrupt That because because that that's gonna make everyone sort of better off.

所以，我想我们已经完成了第一个部分。

So, I think we've done the first one.

再投资是创造股东价值的好方法，因为这样做意味着每股的收益会增加。

Reinvestment is the a great way to create shareholder value because if you do that, it just means more money on a per share basis.

其实，也许我们还没把这点讲清楚。

Well, actually, maybe we didn't unpick that.

咱们先不谈股份稀释这类事情。

Let's stay away share dilutions and that kind of stuff.

不过，是的，其他条件不变的话，确实如此。如果你这么做了，每股赚得更多，市盈率就会回归均值。

But, yeah, all else being equal, that's like, yeah, if you do that, make more money on a per share basis, PEs are mean reverting.

也就是说，市盈率不可能一直涨下去。

Like, they they will never go up forever.

它们不会永远下跌，但理论上盈利是可以永远增长的。

They're like just they will never go down forever, but earnings can go up forever in theory.

对吧？

Right?

所以归根结底，简单地说“是的”有点过于简化了。

And it's sort of like so ultimately, it's it's simplistic to say, yeah.

股价上涨，但股价上涨。

Share price go up, but share price go up.

所以，到底是什么让股价上涨呢？

So so therefore, what makes share price go up?

每股收益增加，股价就会涨。

Profit per share increasing makes share price go up.

所以，每股收益越高，而且越快实现，股价就涨得越多。

Therefore, the more profit per share, the sooner that comes, the more share price go up.

想让股价涨，就得提高每股收益。

I want share price go up, make more money per share.

不断提高每股收益，还要把赚来的钱拿去复利再投资，毕竟复利永远是最好的增值方式。

Make more money per share, Reinvest the money that you make in a compounding fashion because compounding is always the best form of growth.

而且要做到这一点，投资的时候就得明智审慎。

And to do that, reinvest sensibly.

那我觉得这个逻辑咱们先讲清楚了

So I think we got that one.

应该没问题了

Maybe we're good.

我觉得这个我们搞清楚了。

Think we got that one.

不过我确实考虑过收购的事。

I did go acquisitions though, mate.

这其实又回到了再投资的问题上。

You kinda go go back to reinvestment.

那你对于收购有没有什么特别的看法？

So did you have other thoughts on acquisitions in particular?

对。

Yeah.

就是跟我之前说的一样，性质差不多，只是稍微偏向外部的投资。

Only that only that they are the same as I said before, the same kind of thing, just a little bit external.

但本质上还是一样的，都是再投资。

But the same but it's the same Reinvestments

业务和运营模式都保持不变。

just the same business, same operations.

如果是做收购的话，我会买下一家公司，要么把它并入现有业务，要么作为独立的业务板块单独运营。

Acquisitions, I buy something bolted on or run it separately as a as an additional piece of my business.

不过除此之外，核心逻辑是一样的。

But, yes, otherwise, it's the same idea.

从数据来看，大部分并购项目其实都做不成。

So, statistically, most acquisitions don't work out.

业内有个大概的经验法则：三分之一能成功，三分之一会失败，剩下三分之一基本不赚不亏。

The rough rule of thumb here is that a third work out, a third don't, and a third are just a wash.

换句话说，你只有三分之一的机会能创造股东价值。

So in other words, you know, you've got a one in three chance of creating shareholder wealth.

人嘛，都是这样。经营公司的人，都倾向于把公司做得更大。

Humans are human, you know, we're all and and and people, running corporations prefer to run bigger corporations.

为什么呢？

Why?

因为那样感觉更好。

Because it's better.

为什么这样更好？

Why is it better?

需要我解释一下吗？

Do I need to explain it?

比如，你是做什么的？

Like, what do you do?

哦，我是一家公司的首席执行官。

Oh, I'm the CEO of a company.

哇。

Wow.

你们公司叫什么名字？

What's your company called?

哦，叫马帕市中心杂货店。

Oh, it's Mar and Pa's Corner Store in Downtown Barrel.

好的。

Okay.

我经营着一家跨国集团，员工有一万人，年收入达到四千亿美元。

I run an international conglomerate that employs 10,000 people and generates $400,000,000,000 of revenue.

你看，这里衡量的是某种规模指标，这其实挺荒谬的。

Like, there's a certain there's a certain appendage being measured here, and and it's all stupid.

我并不是想把这种荒谬的情况变得更合理。

I'm not trying to I'm not trying to I'm not trying to make it less stupid than it is.

但我敢打赌，大多数人肯定更愿意经营一家规模更大的企业。

But I would put a lot of money on the fact that most people would prefer to run a bigger business.

而且我们知道这是事实。

And and when and we know that that's true.

所以你会看到很多高管都在说，好吧，这 partly 是我们自己的错，还有股东和代表我们的董事会，他们制定的薪酬政策和长期激励措施非常糟糕。

And so you get a lot of you get a lot of executives who's just like, well, partly it's our fault for shareholders and the board that we that represents us in setting very, very poor remuneration policy and long term incentives.

比如，只要你让 EBITDA 增长，我们就给你发一大笔奖金。

Like, we'll give you a big fat bonus if you grow EBITDA.

他们听了就说，好吧。

They're like, okay.

我打算买下这十家公司，因为这样能推高EBITDA，我就能拿到一笔丰厚的奖金，至于股东们，等我在某个地方喝着莫吉托度假时，让他们自己去面对后果吧。

I'm gonna go buy these 10 businesses because that's gonna boost EBITDA, and I'm gonna get a big fat check, and shareholders can just deal with the consequences when I'm on an island sipping a mojito somewhere.

确实。

Yeah.

顺便

By the

说一句，董事会和谢尔都想要同样的结果。

way, the board and Shells want the same thing.

没错。

Right.

他们甚至经常不惜牺牲自己的利益。

They even even at their own cost often.

心想，好吧，是的，我想当一家大公司的董事。

It's like, well, yeah, I wanna be I wanna be the director of a big company.

壳牌那边想，我觉得壳牌应该做得更好，所以行吧。

Shell's like, well, I think big m should be better, so yes.

去扩张，去增长。

Go and grow.

你说得对。

You're right.

我是说，这确实是个大问题。我挺高兴你提到这一点，因为这是整个丑闻里非常关键的一环。

I mean, it's it's a huge I mean, I I love that you brought it up because this is a huge part of that whole debacle.

对吧？

Right?

没错，就是这样。那些东西纯粹就是为了增长，我不好说是不是为了增长而增长。

It's it's exactly that, and it's all that stuff which is just straight out, you know, growth for I won't say its own sake.

没人觉得增长是目的本身，但我们好像从来就没停下来过。

No one thinks it's for its own sake, but we never kinda stop.

你提到了每股指标。

You mentioned per share.

今天咱们先不展开聊这个。

We're not gonna get into that today.

不过，为了增长而增长，这本身就有问题。

But, yeah, growth for its own sake.

从来没有人说过，要不计一切代价盲目扩张。

None of this says just grow regardless of the cost.

对不对？

Right?

这些举措最终只会给股东创造更多价值。

This is all this will generate more value for shareholders.

这和盲目扩张根本不是一回事。

That is not the same thing as growing.

然后这么说可能听起来有点...

And and it sounds like I've

那完全没有意义。

been meaningless.

盲目扩张反而会给股东创造更少的价值。

Grow and create less value for shareholders.

或者收缩规模，创造更多价值。

Or shrink and create more value.

对。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，我常跟我老婆这么说，因为这样让我感觉更好，听起来也更有道理。

I mean, I like to I say this a lot to my wife because it makes me feel better and sound better.

这是在试图为本可能很糟糕的情况加上一层积极的解读。

It's trying to put a positive spin on what might otherwise been.

实际上，Straumann 比 ISX 上大多数公司都要成功得多。

Was like, Straumann is actually far more successful than most companies on the ISX.

我特别喜欢提这一点。

I love to throw that out there.

对吧？

Right?

我们就像大象身上的蚊子身上的一颗痘痘。

It was just like, we're like, so a pimple like, we're we're a pimple on a gnat on an elephant.

我们实在太渺小了，但至少我们能自己站稳脚跟。

Like, we're just so irrelevant and tiny, but we make we we, you know, we stand on our own feet.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

而且大部分ASIC公司的情况都有所好转。

And most of ASICs got better.

你说得对。

You're right.

不过其实我刚才说的有点夸张了。

Now there's you know, I'm being a little spurious here.

但话说回来，这种想法也确实有它的道理。

But then nevertheless, there is there is truth to that kind of thinking.

所以收购绝对是为股东创造价值的绝佳机会，但说到底，还是绕不开那个老生常谈的算账逻辑。

So acquisitions are absolutely an incredible, incredible opportunity to create shareholder value, but it still comes back to the same boring calculus.

不管你投入了多少，都得把成本收回来，还要多赚一笔才行。

Whatever you paid, you must get more you must get that back and then some.

不然的话，做这件事还有什么意义呢？

Otherwise, what's the point?

我们做了一笔一千亿美元的收购，你知道的，这个例子其实不太合适。

We made a $100,000,000,000 acquisition and, you know, it it boosted our that example doesn't work.

你懂我的意思吧？

You know?

我们的市值确实增加了一千亿美元，但每股收益完全没变。

We got a $100,000,000,000 bigger in terms of market cap but the per share profit is exactly the same.

没错。

That's right.

好，太好了。

Well, great.

这对我来说其实完全没区别。

That does actually make zero difference to me whatsoever.

所以没错，收购这事儿我是挺喜欢的，大概分两种类型。

So yes, acquisitions, you know, I like and there's two types of acquisitions.

一种是那种能从根本上改变格局的大动作，对。

There's the big game changing structurally Yeah.

像这种能带来差异化优势的收购，好吧，咱们先不聊这个了。

Differentiating acquisitions like well, let's go back to to no.

不了。

No.

咱们还是别扯远了。

Let's not go.

这种例外情况实在太多了。

So many exceptions.

例外情况太多了。

So many exceptions to the rule.

你知道的，这完全出乎意料，但我们还是得这么做。

You know, it's like completely out of left field, but we're gonna do that thing.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

好的。

Okay.

我想这说得通。

Make makes I guess it makes sense.

而且从统计上看，它们成功的概率往往更低。

And they tend to be statistically more unlikely to work.

我很喜欢他们所谓的‘附加型收购’。

I love what they call bolt on acquisitions.

对。

On.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，就是那种，哦，我们打算做件事。

You know, it's just like, oh, we're doing a thing.

而那边那家公司已经造出了其中的一部分

And that other company over there has built a part of a thing that

天哪，

we've gosh,

我现在真希望我们能花十年时间自己在实验室里研发，或者干脆直接买下来算了。

I wish now we could go spend ten years in the lab trying to develop it ourselves and get off the or we just go buy that.

或者天哪，我们的产品或服务明明那么棒。

Or gosh, we've got such a great product or service.

要是能在爱沙尼亚也占有一席之地，那该多好啊？

Wouldn't it be great to have a presence in Estonia?

这就好比说，我们可以从零开始建一个新基地，然后努力说服大家我们有多棒。

It's like, well, we could set up a greenfield site and try and convince everyone how great we are.

或者，我们直接买下那个领域里已经有客户的那些公司。

Or we could just buy a a player over in that space that has the customers already.

这就是所有这些做法背后的逻辑。

This is a rationale for all of these things.

再说一遍，如果最后结果是好的，那就没问题了。

Again, if it comes back where it's like, okay, cool.

只要每股收益因此增长，那就放手去做，并且把规模扩大到超过其他同等风险机会所能达到的程度。

As long as my per share profit is growing as a consequence of that, then absolutely do it and grow to an extent that's greater than other opportunities that may have presented themselves with an equivalent risk.

这里有很多需要填补的空缺。

There's lots of there's lots of backfilling.

每次聊到这些，你都得说，哦，这个，哦，对。

Every time you talk about this stuff, you gotta, oh, this oh, yeah.

只要这个成立，并且这是事实。

As long as this this is and this is true.

我知道我一下子说了很多，但希望这些内容本身是讲得通的。

So I I I know I'm I know I'm throwing a lot at you here, but hopefully that in and of itself makes sense.

再投资也是一样的道理。

It is the same with reinvestment.

收购也是同样的逻辑。

It's the same with acquisitions.

我手头有资金。

I've got money.

这笔钱我能用在哪儿？

Where can I spend it?

如果我把钱花在这上面，能比别处获得多得多的回报吗？

Will I if I spend it on this, will I get much more back than I otherwise would or otherwise could elsewhere?

当然了。

Absolutely.

没错。

Yes.

我简单提一下资产剥离，因为我们之前稍微提到过。

I will very quickly mention divestments because we kind of alluded to it before.

这其实不算是我们主要讨论的内容。

It's not really part of what we would talk about.

说到收购，剥离正好相反，道理是一样的。

Given about acquisitions, divestments are exactly the same for all the opposite It is exactly.

因为当你出售的时候，你是在

Because when sell it, you're

会拿到钱。

gonna get money.

没错。

Correct.

没错。

Correct.

我可以拿这笔钱分红，也可以内部再投资，或者拿去买别的公司。

And I can pay a dividend with that or I can reinvest it internally or I can buy another business with it.

对。

Correct.

只要你换回来的价值比你付出的高，那就该出手。

And as long as you're getting more for it that it's worth you, then you should get rid of it.

还有另一点，哦，是的。

This is the other thing Oh, yeah.

我们之前提到过，个别股东的情况。

Which we mentioned individual shareholders, mate.