邮件袋，包括：人工智能是否对比特币构成风险？2026年7月26日

如果排队领面包的人丢了工作，那就彻底完了。

If the bloke on the bread line loses his job, he's screwed.

他连饭都吃不上了。

He can't eat.

数字上的差异真的非常大，但实际影响也是天壤之别。

The numbers are really, really, really, really, really different, but the impacts are huge and hugely different.

所以，在考虑投资组合、人生阶段，或者你愿意为了潜在的收益承担多大风险时，一定要好好想想这一点。

And so that's the kind of just just think about at at a portfolio level, at a life stage level, at a at a at a you know, how much how much are you prepared to risk for the upside you want?

这就是所有投资组合的常态。

And that's that's every portfolio ever.

对吧？

Right?

所以有钱人赚了钱之后，通常会去买房产，或者做其他投资。

But it's that's why it's why wealthy people tend to make their money, and they go and buy property, or whatever they're gonna buy.

我不是要讨论房产本身，而是说，他们觉得现在的钱已经够多了。

Not to not to have the property conversation, but it's like, I've got enough now.

我现在只是想守住现有的东西。

I'm just I'm in preservation mode.

对我来说，这已经不重要了。

It no longer matters to me.

我并不是说这笔钱一定能改变人生，詹姆斯，虽然对你来说可能真的能，那当然很好。

Now I'm not saying this is life changing money necessarily, James, although it might be for you, and that's great.

我也没打算对任何一方做出价值判断。

I'm not I I I'm not making a value judgment either way.

我并不是想表达那个意思。

I don't I don't intend to imply that.

我只是觉得，到了某个阶段，你该问问自己：潜在的收益值不值得承担相应的风险？

Other than I think at some point, it's worth asking yourself, is the upside potential worth the downside risk?

要按实际金额来算，不是按百分比。

In in in dollar terms, not not percentages.

百分比其实没什么用。

Percentage aren't really useful.

涨跌百分之二十，其实都只是个抽象的概念。

Up or down 20%, it's it's kind of a an extraction abstraction.

不好意思。

Sorry.

对吧？

Right?

多出或少掉两三百、五百块，到底在哪个点上才真正算数？

Plus or minus $200, $300, $500, at what point does it start to matter?

从长期财务规划的角度想想这个问题，这大概是我唯一剩下的建议了。

And just think about that from a a long term financial planning perspective as probably my only other piece of advice.

你说得真到位，老兄。

I I think you said that well, mate.

我想说点别的。

I'm I'm gonna say something.

听起来好像跟刚才说的有点矛盾，其实不然。我注意到，我相信你也一样，咱们都到了一定年纪，干这行的时间早就不止几十年了。

Feels a bit contradictory to that but it's really not but it's something that I have found, I'm sure you have found too is that we're both gentlemen of a certain age and we've been doing this for more decades than we might care to admit.

我觉得真正的挑战之一，也是需要明白的，就是随着财富增长，你的管理能力也要跟上。

I think one of the real challenges and it's important to know this is to be able to scale up as your wealth scales.

那我这里说的是什么意思呢？

So what am I talking about here?

我23岁的时候，记不清具体多大了，刚进二十岁出头，买第一只股票，大概花了上千块。

So when I was 23, I don't know how old I was, early twenties, when I bought my first share, I think I bought a thousand bucks of something.

那笔钱不少了。

It was a lot.

我觉得那真是一笔不小的数目。

I think it was a lot.

我的意思是，这在当时可是一大笔钱。

I mean, that was huge.

对吧？

Right?

相对于我当时的收入和资产规模，这笔投资简直太庞大了。

And and relative to my wealth and and relative to my portfolio, it it was massive.

然后，我是说，我感觉我其实没怎么刻意去……那个词怎么说来着？

And then, I mean, I I I I feels like I'm really not trying to what's the word?

我就直接说吧。

I I I'm just gonna say.

就像，复利效应是很实在的。

Like, compounding's a thing.

你懂的？

You know?

只要你坚持得够久，哪怕你觉得自己没什么天赋，离天才还远着呢，你也肯定能攒下一些积蓄。

If you do this for long enough, you're just gonna really gonna struggle not to to to build a bit of capital over you know, as long as you just not because I mean, special kind of genius, far from it.

说实话，我这些年干了不少蠢事，本来应该比现在更有钱的。

I I arguably should have a lot more money than I do because I've done a lot of dumb things over the years.

但只要你把基础的事情做对，而且不是只坚持几年，而是长期坚持下去，你的投资组合肯定会慢慢增值。

But if you're just doing the basic things right and I'm not talking about doing it in a few years, I mean you're just doing it over a very long period of time, you're going to find your portfolio grows.

我常看到的情况是，大家很难让自己的投资组合随着资产规模一起扩大。

And what I see all the time is that people struggle to scale with their portfolio.

三十年后，一千美元的交易根本算不了什么。

So they might be thirty years later and a thousand dollar trade is nothing.

这连零头都算不上。

It's a rounding error.

连日常的波动都算不上。

It's a daily fluctuation, not even a daily fluctuation.

这有什么意义呢？

It's like, what's the point?

你到底在忙什么？

What are you doing?

根本没什么影响。

It doesn't make any difference.

你应该做的是十万美金的交易。

You should be making a $100,000 trade.

对吧？

Right?

你也应该用同样的思路来看待，或者随便你怎么想，我只是在给出一些数字参考。

And you should be viewing it in the same way or whatever then I'm just putting numbers out there.

我之所以这么说，是因为那些你能看到长期复利增长的人，他们确实把这件事做得很好。

And the reason I say that is because the people that you see really compounding their wealth over long periods of time, they manage to do that well.

我觉得最好的思考方式，就是别盯着具体的美元和美分。

And the and the best way to think about it, I would say, is don't think in dollars and cents.

要去看百分比。

Think in percentages.

你懂吧？

You know?

哎，比如说，假设我跟你说，嘿，斯科特。

Well well, just because because it let's say if I said to you, hey, Scott.

顺便说一句，我刚才买了。这完全不是实际情况。

I just bought by the way, this is nowhere near reality.

所以这只是一个例子。

So just it's just it's just an example.

当然。

Sure.

斯科特。

Scott.

来吧。

Here we go.

我刚买了一百万美元的仙股，就是那个X、Y和Z。

I just bought a million dollars of penny dreadful x y and z.

然后说：天啊。

And be like, gosh.

这简直太鲁莽了。

That is super reckless.

你这是在干嘛？

What are you doing?

对啊。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但我可是身家十亿美元的人，老兄。

But I'm worth a billion dollars, dude.

为什么不行呢？

Like, why not?

这同样是种假设而已。

Like, it's the same way hypothetical.

不对。

No.

没错。

Right.

话说回来，所有的假设都多多少少基于现实。

Well, you know, all all hypotheticals are based in reality at some degree.

但你明白我的意思吧？

But do know what I'm saying?

你听懂我刚才说的了吗？

Do you know what I'm saying here?

这话说得真有道理。

It's like That's a great point.

对。

Yeah.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

这就感觉特别鲁莽似的。

It it it's it's sort of like it feels really reckless.

对我来说，一百万美元和

Million dollars is, yeah, different to me than

是不同的一年了。

different year.

这没什么大不了的。

It's nothing.

这真没什么。

It's nothing.

你也不能只盯着可能的损失，还得想想潜在的收益。

It's also you you gotta stop thinking about it in terms of the downside but also the upside as well.

就好比你有一百万的投资，翻了三倍，可对你的整体资产影响微乎其微，这时候你难免会想：这到底图个啥？

It's kinda like if if you've got a million dollar investment and it triples and it doesn't actually really do much to move your overall portfolio, you can make the point, well, what's the point?

这属于那种在生活和投资里你可能遇到的所有问题中，最顶级、最体面的一种烦恼。

So this is one of these, of all the problems that you will find in life and investing, this is the gold plated grade A kind of problem to have.

但我确实看到很多人被这个问题困扰，就像那句话说的，习惯的锁链轻得感觉不到，直到它变得牢不可破。

But it is something that I do see people struggling with and you know, it's that whole idea of the the chains of habit are too lightly felt until they're too hard to be broken.

你经常会看到一些特别有钱的人，小气得让你难以置信。

You you see it with a lot of people who are very wealthy, who are the just biggest tight asses you've ever met in your life.

对。

Yep.

这原因总让我有点烦，但仔细想想也合理。毕竟，这是长年累月养成的习惯，某种程度上

And the reason it's kind of makes it always just frustrate me, but it makes sense because, like, well, the reason it it's a lifetime of habit that's that's that's sort of

是的。

Mhmm.

我倒不说是它直接导致的，但肯定是个必要前提。

I wouldn't say responsible for that, but it's certainly, like, a necessary precondition for it.

现在你身价大增，想关掉都难，但你其实得学会这么做。

Now that you're worth a lot more, you can't turn it off, but you kind of need to be able to.

我脑子有点乱。

And and so I'm my head's too foggy.

我觉得自己没表达清楚。

I'm not I really think I'm probably articulating it well.

不过我

But I

我觉得你做得不错。

I guess done a good job.

你做得很好。

You've done a

好极了。

good job.

换个角度想，用百分比来看。

Think think of it in percentage terms.

别光看具体金额。

Don't think of it in dollar.

哦，持有了五十万美元的英伟达股票。

Oh, $500,000 worth of Nvidia.

如果你的投资组合总共六十万美元，那确实值得留意。

It's like, well, if your portfolio is $600,000, that's something to think about.

要是你的投资组合有五百万美元，那情况就完全不一样了。

You know, if it's $5,000,000 portfolio, it's entirely different proposition.

所以光看具体金额可能会让人产生误解。

And and that and that's why the dollars and cents can be can be misleading.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意。

I agree.

我也这么觉得。

I agree with that.

我就是觉得。

I just yeah.

我觉得这样再好不过了。

I think it's perfect.

没错。

Yeah.

我觉得我们已经做到了。

I think we've done that.

我们来听一下热内维耶夫的问题，她是我们一直很喜欢的提问者，也是一位很棒的女性听众——当然，现在我说什么得看场合了。

Let's go to a question from Genevieve, one of our favorite ongoing questioners and a lovely female listener, as we know, woman listener, depending on what I'm allowed to say these days.

向我最喜欢的两位1975年出生的金融男同胞问个好。

G'day to my two favorite 1975 vintage finance bros.

说得好。

There you go.

嘿。

Hey.

这个回答挺不错的。

It's a nice response.

一般人这时候都会说，热内维耶夫该停一停了，但我已经提前看过了。

Rather than generic kissing of the ring see, normally, this point, I would say Genevieve should stop, but I've read ahead.

我想先恭喜斯科特，他的新书《一页投资计划》即将出版。

I wanna start by congratulating Scott on the upcoming publication of his book, The One Page Investment Plan.

谢谢你，热内维耶夫。

Gee, thanks, Genevieve.

谢谢你提到这个。

It's nice you to

说得好。

mention it.

干得漂亮。

Well done.

作为前兼职小说家，我深知写作、修改和出版一路走来的艰辛与付出。

As an ex side hustle novelist, I know the blood, sweat, and tears that go into the writing, editing, and publishing journey.

谢谢你，老兄。

Thank you, mate.

感谢你们最近两次坦诚地讨论投资组合表现，并承认了淘金者股票顾问近期的短期表现不佳。

Thank you both for your two recent candid conversations about portfolio performance and acknowledging the recent short term underperformance of Motley Fools' share adviser.

对我而言也很有帮助，也很安慰，因为我的投资组合最近也表现不佳，主要是因为持有比特币、CSL、Catapult和Pro Medicus，而且成本价很高。

It was also helpful and comforting to me as someone whose portfolio has also been underperforming recently, mainly due to holding bitcoin, CSL, Catapult, and Pro Medicus with high cost basis.

我想澄清一件事。

I wanted to clarify something.

安德鲁祝贺莫利 Fool 公开发布了业绩数据。

Andrew congratulated Scott on the Motley Fool's public release of performance figures.

你能告诉我具体在哪里能看到这些数据吗？

Could you point me to where these are?

几年前我考虑过加入 ShareAdvisor，但网站上没有公开的业绩数据，也没有像 ETF 和共同基金那样展示长期跑赢基准的表现，这让我打消了念头。

A few years ago, I considered joining ShareAdvisor, but the lack of published performance figures, long term performance compared to benchmark on the website, like you see for ETFs and managed funds, turned me off.

听到你们最近的谈话，得知情况有所改善，我挺高兴的，但我再次去网站查看时，还是没找到相关信息。

I was delighted to hear this had changed when I heard your recent conversation, but still could not find it on the website when I looked again.

我觉得你们得先加入并付费才行。

It seemed to me you needed to join and pay first.

你能帮我理清这个矛盾吗？

Could you please square this circle for me?

我简单说一下，Ram。我不想过多谈论我们的服务，但Jennifer确实问了这个问题。

I'll go over this on quickly, Ram, and I don't wanna talk about our services much, but Jennifer asked the question.

这个问题提得很合理，因为我们之前确实讨论过。

It's a fair it's a fair one because we did talk about it.

这些内容只有会员才能看到。

They're not publicly available to nonmembers.

所有推荐记录，以及我们对这些推荐的最新评估——无论是买入还是持有——都设在付费墙后面。

They are available to members every single recommendation ever, and our current view of those recommendations, whether they're still buys or holds, are all behind the paywall.

这问题问得好，Genevieve，我给你说实话，这事儿有点行内人的细节。

And a bit of inside baseball, because it's a good question, Genevieve, and I'll give you the honest answer.

以前我们是公开的，但ASIC对我们的做法提出了异议。

We used to, and ASIC took exception to the way we did it.

这事儿听起来有点枯燥，但值得简单说一下。

And the challenge with it's it's kind of boring, but it's worth talking about really quickly.

ShareAdvisor 不是一个投资组合。

Share advice is not a portfolio.

我们并没有固定的资金分配给各个公司。

We don't have a fixed amount of money that we allocate across companies.

我们每个月只新增一条推荐。

We add one new recommendation every month.

我说的‘新’，可能是重新推荐之前提过的标的，也可能是评分卡上全新的公司。

When I say new, it could be re recommendation, something we've previously recommended, or it could be a new company at the scorecard.

这么做，就相当于给投资组合追加资金。

When you do that, it's the equivalent of adding more money to a to a portfolio.

对吧？

Right?

因为我们并没有卖出任何东西来腾出资金。

Because we're not selling anything to fund it.

然后就会出现一种奇怪的情况：你得算时间加权收益率和资金加权收益率，数学上变得特别复杂。

And then you get in this weird circumstance where you start doing time value time weighted rates of return and money money weighted rates of return, and the math gets really messy.

后来ASIC要求我们把数据年化，但你根本没法合理年化，比如昨天刚发布的记录，假设它昨天涨了1%，可它其实是前天发布的。

And then we were asked by ASIC to annualize the numbers, but you can't annualize well, you can't annualize a number for a record that was released yesterday, except to do that, Let's say it was up 1% yesterday, it was released the day before.

那岂不是成了365%的年化回报？

That's a 365% annual return.

对吧？

Right?

这明显说不通。

Which is clearly nonsense.

在付费内容里，我们给会员提供了每项推荐的绝对回报率。

So behind the paywall, we have given our members the absolute return of each individual recommendation.

我们也提供了从同一时间点起的市场回报，方便逐项对比。

We've given them the market return since the same date, so you can compare recommendation by recommendation.

我们还为每项推荐计算了年化数字，市场和差距部分也一并提供了。

We've also put an annualized number per recommendation, and again, for the same for the market and the gap on that one.

每家公司的情况，你都能看到这些完整数据。

So per company, you can see all of that information.

一旦开始把这些数据平均化，就会变得特别混乱。说实话，ASIC的问题在于，我们过去用的是总回报，而不是年化平均回报，他们担心这样会让数字显得太大。

When you start averaging that stuff, it gets really messy, and I gotta say so ASIC's issue was we used to do total return, not average annual return, and their concern was that it makes the numbers look really big.

对吧？

Right?

比如我十年前推荐过某只股票，现在涨了十倍，我们就说公司X上涨了1000%。

If I'd recommended something ten years ago and it's tenfold, for example, we say, company x is up a thousand percent.

ASIC的看法是，这可不是年化数据，而且看起来数字太大了，存在一些问题。

And ASIC's view was, well, that's not an annualized number, and it seems too big, and it's problematic.

对此，我其实并不完全反对。

And I I don't I don't necessarily disagree.

而且他们都能保持冷静。

That's and they all stay cool.

我也没法反驳。

I I don't get to disagree.

事情可不是这么运作的。

It's not not the way this works.

我能理解他们的出发点，因为如果我在150年里赚了1000%，或者在两年里赚了1000%，那完全是两个概念。

I get where they're coming from because if I'd made a thousand percent over a hundred and fifty years or a thousand percent over two years, it's a very different number.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们认为，把收益年化之后，数据才具有可比性。

And so the annual annualizing something in their view makes it comparable.

我觉得这完全合理。

And that makes perfect sense to me.

只要你在比较这两者的时候，把它们放在同一个基础上。

As long as you're comparing the two there.

对吧？

Right?

比如说，如果你把PITREC年化，却把市场数据也年化，那就不太严谨了。

Like, if you annualize if you if you didn't annualize the PITREC, but you annualize the market, then that's a little bit dodgy.

但如果是对比同类项，比如，那个

But if if it's apples with apples, like, what's the

对。

Yeah.

以前我们就是这么做的，但ASIC说希望两者都年化。

And that's what we used to do, and ASIC said we want both to be annualized.

所以，总之，看起来

So, anyway, it looks

挺不错的，ASIC。

like good fight, ASIC.

我们很欣赏你们的工作。

We love your work.

继续加油吧。

Well, you know, keep keep keep up with it.

我能理解他们的立场。

I get where they're coming from.

我们喜欢

We love

英国人，实际上。

the British, actually.

谢谢。

Thank you.

他们以前是负责推荐和监管基金的。

Well, they used to rec they used to recommend they used to managing regulating funds.

于是他们一看，别人都这么干，觉得也该这样。

And so they and then they kinda look at this and going, everyone else does it this way.

你也该照着做。

You should too.

我其实能理解这种想法。

And so I kinda get it.

对吧？

Right?

我不会去批评ASIC。

And I'm not gonna I'm not gonna bag ASIC.

他们只是在做自己的工作。

That's you know, they're doing their thing.

他们有他们的做法。

They can do it.

简而言之，吉娜薇芙，我们觉得不能分享具体数字，这是不允许的。

So long story short, Genevieve, we don't we don't think it's re we we can't we we're not allowed to share absolute numbers.

只要我们在旁边标注年化数字，我们就可以这么做，但对那些推荐时间不到十二个月的股票，我们没法心安理得地这么做，原因我刚才说了，跟那1%有关。

We can do it as long as we put the annualized number beside it, but we can't do that with in good faith for a stock that's been recommended less than twelve months for the reason I just mentioned about the 1%.

哪怕超过六个月也一样，对吧？回报直接翻倍。

Or even even over six months, right, you double the return.

如果我六个月赚了10%，年化就是20%，这数字根本站不住脚。

If I have 10% in six months, I'm up 20% annualized, it's just not a reasonable number.

我真不觉得这么做合适。

And I don't feel good about doing that.

所以出于这个原因，我们已经把所有营销材料里的业绩数字都撤掉了。

So we've actually pulled all of our performance mount numbers from our marketing for that reason.

我觉得这可能影响了我们的业务，也可能让潜在用户错过了机会——如果我们长期跑赢市场，却因为不展示数据而让人望而却步，那其实是在害人。

And I think it's probably hurt our business, and I think it's probably hurt members potential members, because if we keep beating the market over time, over the long term, then, you know, we're probably hurting people not bringing them in.

但你看。

But look.

再说一遍，我并不打算抱怨。

Again, I'm not gonna complain.

ASIC有他们该做的事。

ASIC's got a job to do.

他们尽力做好自己的工作。

They do their job the best they can.

我们确实和他们有过一次沟通。

We did have a conversation with them.

那次沟通非常顺利。

Very good conversation.

所以，各位，

So look, guys.

这就是我们这么做的理由。

Here's why we're doing it.

这也是我们的想法。

Here's what we think.

他们听了之后说，挺好。

And they said, cool.

我们认为你不该这么做。

We don't think you should.

我们没问题。

And we're okay.

没问题。

Fine.

这样挺好。

That's cool.

这由你决定。

That's your call.

你是监管方。

You're the regulator.

我们会做我们该做的事，这就是我们这么做的原因。

We'll do what we're And so that's that's what we did and why we did it.

你喜欢这样表达，真好。

Love how you framed

把它当作一场谈判。

it as a negotiation.

我知道。

I know.

其实不是。

It was was no.

只是一场谈判性质的对话。

It just a negotiation conversation.

我们

We

需要你们按这种方式来做。

need you to do it this way.

没错。

Correct.

好的，没问题。

Sure off.

所以，好的。

So yeah.

我们来谈谈条件吧。

Let's negotiate.

没问题。

Absolutely.

我这边没有提出任何要求。

I didn't come back with any this.

你不能来参加拍卖。

You can't you can't come to the sale.

真的，我跟你讲。

You do, I tell you.

对。

Yeah.

我没事。

I'm I'm good.

你说我做，我就做。

I'll do it you say.

我同意你的建议。

I'll go with your suggestion.

总之，是这样。

Anyway, so yeah.

不好意思。

Sorry.

比我想的还要长。

It's even longer than I wanted that to be.

抱歉。

Apologies.

但如果我们说它是公开的，其实它并不公开。

But if we did say publicly available, it's not publicly available.

这就是我们撤掉市场推广的原因。

That's the reason why we've taken off our marketing.

我们不把它放在网站首页，就是因为没法直接比较，在我看来，这种比较根本没意义。

It's the reason why we don't put it on the front page of the website, because you can't compare it's just not it's not a reasonable compare in my view, it's not a reasonable comparison.

顺便说一句，Genevieve，这可不是广告。

You can this is not an ad, by the way, Genevieve.

你可以加入 ShareAdvisor。

You can join ShareAdvisor.

我们提供三十天无条件退款保障。

We have a thirty day money back guarantee.

如果觉得不合适，头三十天内，我们会给你会员反馈。

If you don't like it, first thirty days, we give you membership feedback.

我不是让你因为这个才加入。

I'm not saying join for that reason.

我只是想说，那时候你能看到所有内部内容，要是觉得不满意，随时可以取消，钱全退给你。

I'm just saying you can see everything on the inside at that point, and if you don't like it, then or you don't you're happy with it or whatever, then you can cancel and we'll give you the money back.

好了，不扯这个了，不过这确实是个好问题。

So, anyway, enough about that, but it's it's a good question.

我提出来，只是因为我没法直接回应吉妮维芙。

I raised it only because I couldn't respond to Genevieve directly.

我提出来，是因为我们之前说过这些信息是公开可查的，她问得完全合理，这就是答案。

I raised it because we had said it was publicly available and she was right to ask and that's the that's the answer.

对。

Yeah.

还有，吉妮维芙，你根本不够聪明，没法根据现有的事实做出明智的判断。

And, Genevieve, you're just not smart enough to be able to make an informed decision based on the facts as presented.

所以幸好有个监管机构在那儿帮你把信息藏起来，不然我猜咱们都会同意，经过这番操作后，你反而更有能力做出明智的决定。

So thank goodness we have a regulator there to hide the information now for you because I would think we all agree that you're in a better position to make an informed decision after that.

我刚才那句话可完全没有讽刺的意思。

There was zero sarcasm in that at all.

好的。

Asik.

谢谢你的服务。

Thank you for your thank you for your service.

下一个问题。

Next next question.

斯科特。

Scott.

安德鲁·佩奇，P-A-G。

Andrew Page, p a g.

顺便说一下，我特别欣赏Asik。

For the record, I'm a very big fan of Asik.

你做得非常好。

I think you did a wonderful job.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

干得漂亮，各位。

Great work, guys.

摩根士丹利财富电台。

Motley Fool Money.

更多内容，请访问 fool.com.au/listener 订阅免费通讯。

For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au/listener.

我们有个问题。

We have a question.

我只是不太确定。

I'm just no.

没关系。

It's okay.

这是来自亚伦的。

It's from Aaron.

问题写得有点乱，我本来以为是亚伦想匿名，但下个问题才是匿名的。

The way the question was spelled out, thought it was gonna couldn't work it with Aaron wanna be anonymous, the next question's anonymous for the next one.

那我们就按这个来吧。

So we'll go with that.

亚伦说，嘿，斯科特和拉姆。

Aaron says, hey, Scott and Ram.

我今年25岁。

I am 25.

咱们一起说一遍，团队。

Let's all say it together, team.

混蛋。

Bastard.

我一直在琢磨，要是真能退休的话，我得攒多少钱才够用，前提是运气够好能等到那天。

And I was trying to have a guess at how much money I should aim for or will need to retire, presuming I'm lucky enough for that to ever happen.

我是个简单的人，这感觉我懂，虽然我老婆可能没我这么简单。

I'm a simple man, I know the feeling, although my wife may not be as simple as me.

天哪。

Oh, man.

亚伦，你该在问题里署上名字的。

You should have put your name on that, Aaron.

我们也不指望开兰博基尼，就是想过得舒服点，多陪陪家人。

As we don't we don't aspire to be driving a Lambo, but simply wanna live comfortably and have time to spend with our family.

但到底多少钱才算够呢？

But how much is enough?

我猜等我75岁的时候，一杯啤酒可能就得150块了。

I'm guessing by the time I'm 75, a schooner of beer could cost me around a $150.

一套像样的房子可能要3200万。

A decent house could cost 32,000,000.

天哪。

Jeez.

通货膨胀简直是纯粹的邪恶，Aaron是这么说的，Andrew也表示赞同。

Inflation is pure evil, says Aaron, and Andrew says, amen.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我想出了一个替代方案。

I came up with an alternative.

天哪。

Oh, no.

在我这疯狂的想法里，我觉得现在拥有一枚比特币就足够了。

In my crazy head, I think that 1 bitcoin today will be all I'll need.

我很想听听你的看法。

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

哎呀。

Oh, man.

现在说我的问题。

Now to my question.

人工智能会不会

Does AI pose

等一下。

Wait.

等一下。

Wait.

等一下。

Wait.

不行。

No.

不是。

No.

我很确定他刚才是在问我们的想法，伙计。

I'm pretty sure he asked for our thoughts there, mate.

我特别确定。

I'm really sure.

问题在这儿。

Here's the question.

问题就在这儿。

Here's the question.

问题就在这儿。

Here's the question.

不对。

No.

别跟任何人说话，伙计。

Don't speak to anyone, mate.

这两件事你可以同时做。

You can do both.

现在说我的问题。

Now to my question.

人工智能对比特币有风险吗？

Does AI pose any risk to bitcoin?

谢谢，亚伦。

Thanks, Aaron.

咱们先说最后一个吧，这个挺快的，说完再聊我们需要多少。

Let's do the last one first, mate, because it's a pretty quick one and then we'll go back to how much we need.

我就是开个玩笑。

I was just joking.

不是的。

No.

没什么好说的。

There's nothing to say.

没有。

No.

你说吧。

Go for it.

其实吧，你看。

Well, it's actually look.

不是的。

No.

我的意思是，这关乎货币。别只盯着比特币，而是货币本身。货币是抗颠覆的。

I mean, this is it's money is as a general not make it about bitcoin, just money, right, is is disruption proof.

我们永远需要价值储藏、记账单位和交换媒介。

We we will always need a a store of value, unit of account, medium of exchange.

我们肯定离不开它。

It's it's it we will need it.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我是说，我真的想不通，经济到底还能出什么幺蛾子。

So it it's just it it I don't I don't know what could possibly happen to an economy

我想你是想说，抱歉。

I think you mean sorry.

先说个快的。

Just quickly.

我想你指的是扰乱整个体系。

I think you mean disrupting the system.

想想最近一些报道，说某些AI工具能够利用银行系统的漏洞，比如。

So think about some some of the recent reports about some the AI tools being able to exploit vulnerabilities in banking systems, for example.

我猜，如果真出了问题，比特币会不会派上用场？但比特币系统、区块链，整个生态，如果AI能渗透或利用系统的弱点，它会不会受到威胁？

I suspect in the case of in case the will bitcoin be needed, but will the bitcoin system, the blockchain, the whole ecosystem, is that is that under threat if AI is able to somehow subvert or, you know, exploit weaknesses in the system?

理论上，是的。

Theoretically, yes.

我的意思是，任何系统都有漏洞，总有些我们根本想不到的风险，所以要说‘绝对不可能’就太天真了。但你得明白，这东西到底是什么，对吧？

I mean any system has vulnerabilities and there's always the unknown unknown so it would be silly to say that no, no, definitely not that's impossible but you've got to understand what this thing is, right?

归根结底，它其实是一种社会共识。

It's really at the end of the day it's a social construct.

这是一种共同的信念：应该存在一个开放、自由、去中心化的协议，谁也控制不了，而且总量上限固定在两千一百万个。就这么简单。

You know, it's a shared view that there should be a, you know, open free, decentralised protocol that no one can control which is hard capped at $21,000,000 That's all it is.

至于它是怎么实现的、用什么代码，这些其实都没那么重要。

Now how that is instantiated and what kind of code, know, it's kind of beside the point.

真的不关键。

It doesn't really matter.

我可以帮你用 React 做前端网站，也可以用别的框架，其实都无所谓。

I can build you a website using React as the code front end or I can use another kind of framework, doesn't really matter.

归根结底，所有这些都不过是机器代码而已。

It's all machine code at end of the day.

这其实是很多人刚接触这个话题时都会经历的一个阶段。

So it's sort of it's one of the things that I think every person goes through when they start looking at this thing.

尤其是如果你有理工背景，很容易被技术本身迷住，被计算机科学的美感吸引，毕竟它确实优雅、漂亮。

Particularly if you're from a STEM kind of mindset, it's very easy to get enamored the technology, by the computer science because it's, well, it's elegant, it's beautiful.

这确实是个了不起的成果。

It's a wonderful piece.

这是一次了不起的发现，但假如出现了漏洞，咱们不妨假设一下，如果……

It's a wonderful discovery and, but if there was a vulnerable let's let's just play it through and ask yourself what if.

好吧。

Okay.

有人利用 AI 攻击了某个漏洞。

Someone exploits an AI exploits some kind of vulnerability.

全球各地的区块链副本多得数不清。

Well, there's a gazillion copies of the blockchain around the planet.

我们能清楚地看到问题发生的那一刻。

We can see the point at which it's happened.

如果足够多的人意识到：等等，不对劲。

If enough people go, well, wait a second.

我们得赶紧打个补丁。

We need to patch this.

这种事以前也发生过，虽然不是通过AI，但在早期确实出过不少补丁。

And this has happened before, not through AI, but in the early days, were a number of patches.

直到今天，还是有人在维护，因为计算机系统不断更新，代码也得跟着升级调整。

There's still people that work on it today that as computer systems change, things need to be upgraded and updated and all the time.

我觉得现在比特币核心已经迭代到第30个版本了。

You know, I think we're up to version 30 of bitcoin core at the moment.

所以它总会被打上补丁的。

So it'll be patched.

大家会下载新软件，然后继续用下去。

People will download the new software and we'll carry on.

这东西是杀不死的。

It can't be killed.

它杀不死，因为它是个理念。

It can't be killed because it's an idea.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得这也是大家比较难理解的地方。

And I I think that's a thing that people struggle with.

所以呢，他们往往只盯着那一段特定的代码，也就是那些代码行来看。

And so, like, they look at it in this particular set of code you know, lines of code.

虽然看起来是这样，但其实并不完全是这样。

And it's like, yeah, but but not not really.

它可能确实……

It may be

换个方式吧，老兄。

different way, mate.

账户价值有风险吗？

Is is the is the account value at risk?

比特币可能因为这个理念而存在，我觉得你说得对。

Bitcoin could be because of concept, I think you're right.

如果我持有比特币，我该担心它会因为AI攻击区块链漏洞而消失吗？

If I had some Bitcoin, should I be worried that they that could go away if AI was to somehow hack a vulnerability in the blockchain.

嗯，关键是。

Well, what it yeah.

它真正会做的，是动摇信任，而信任才是根本。

What it would do what it would do would it would undermine confidence, and that's the base layer here.

信任才是根本。

Confidence is the base layer.

信任是任何人类机构的基础。

Confidence is the base of any human institution.

信任和对整个体系的信心，这适用于澳元、日元，本质上都是信心问题。

Trust and confidence in in the system, And that's true of the Australian dollar or the Japanese yen, like it's confidence.

如果真出了什么事，严重打击了这种信心——我虽然是最坚定的支持者，但现实一点说，价格肯定会暴跌，短期内会非常可怕，重建信任得花上很久。

So if something was to happen and that very seriously short confidence, I mean, I'm the biggest advocate there is, but I mean, let's be real, the price is gonna collapse and it'd be very scary for a while and it would take a long time to rebuild trust.

所以没错，别否认这一点，但你也得明白，这确实是事实。

So yeah, don't deny it, but just remember that that is true.

任何体系都是这样。

That is true of any system.

对吧？

Right?

这事儿常有人拿出来讲，比如他们会说：‘哎，你的INZ账户不是挺安全的吗？’

So it's it's it's something that people like to point out, you know, it's like, ah, it's like, well but but your INZ account is just safe, is it, mate?

我的意思是，这东西其实有个终极的漏洞悬赏机制。

Like, I mean, this thing has the ultimate bug bounty program on it.

十七年了，从来没被攻破过。

Seventeen years, you know, it's never been hacked.

如果有人能黑进系统，那就有上万亿美元的悬赏等着他。

There's a trillion dollar bounty at stake if you manage to hack it.

很多人都试过，你知道的。

A lot of people have tried, you know?

但相比澳 Commonwealth Bank 用的系统代码，这段代码被更多人仔细检查过。

And those are possible, but I mean, there have been more eyeballs on this code than there has been on the code that CBA uses, you know, for its systems.

所以，这事儿没问题。

So Where's okay.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

我确实听到这种说法，但我觉得我们太纠结于细节了，反而忽略了整体的概念。

I I I just I I I hear it, but I I think we get we get too wedded on under the the on the specifics of things rather than the general concept of things.

你知道的。

You know?

要是你我和我都在Chess.com下棋，那是其中一个挺流行的平台。

If if if you and I were playing chess, chess.com, that was our shared platforms, one of the more popular ones.

这个平台其实挺不错的。

It's a good little platform, actually.

平台就算没了，也没关系。

That was to go down.

下棋这个概念本身还在，而且永远都在，随时都能在别的地方继续下。

The the concept of chess still exists and will always exist and can be played on

很多不同的平台都能下。

a number of different platforms.

要是我输掉了棋局，也赔了钱，但我还是说：咱们再下一盘？

I'm pretty happy if I lost my lost my game and my money, and I said, you play chess again?

就是这样。

It's like, yeah.

但我一个棋子都没了，全被偷光了。

But I've got no pieces left because I just all got stolen.

我觉得还剩两个棋子。

So I I I think there's two pieces.

我对你的观点表示赞同。

I I agree with you on the concept.

没错。

Yep.

我想问的是，比特币这个理念能挺得住吗？

I think the the question about, is bitcoin survive as an idea?

能。

Yes.

我的比特币会消失吗？

Do my bitcoins disappear?

这是一个合理且不同的问题。

That's a that's a valid and different question.

答案可能是一样的，但我认为系统本身或这个概念，和我在这个系统中的资产是否安全，这两者是有区别的。

It might the answer may be the same, but I I just I think I I think there's diff difference between the system itself or the idea and whether my value is safe within that

系统。

system.

没错。

Absolutely.

不过，你真正该做的是问问自己：有没有足够多的人处于那种情况？说实话，比特币最民主、最迷人的地方就在于，它不属于任何人。无论个人或机构多么富有或有权势，都无法对它产生决定性影响。

Now you'd what you would what you would wanna do though is you'd ask yourself, are enough people in that situation that, I mean, here's the thing that's so democratic, it's so beautiful about it is that they can own no one person or institution, no matter how rich or powerful can have any impact on it.

要想改变它，你需要非常、非常强大的共识。

Change to be affected, you need a very, very strong consensus.

我不敢打包票，因为我没法保证任何事情。

Now I wouldn't guarantee it because I can't guarantee anything.

但如果真的发生了那种严重的黑客攻击，导致你、我，以及网络上的每个参与者都丢了币，我很有信心，我们大家会站出来说：嘿。

But if such a serious hack happened that you lost it, I lost it, and like every participant on the network lost it, I'd be pretty confident that we as a group would go, hey.

嘿。

Hey.

其他人手里都攥着不少钱。

Everyone else has got a sizable amount of money.

有人觉得把系统回滚到第943,000个区块，然后从那儿重新开始是个好主意吗？

Does anyone else think it's a good idea to wind back to block height 943,000 and just like restart the system from there?

就像现在这样，肯定有人会提出方案，也有人会提出稍微不同的修复办法，最后会有成千上万种提议，但共识最终会集中在其中一个上。

It's like now again, someone will propose that and someone will propose a slightly different fix and there'll be a thousand different proposals that are out there, but consensus will form around one.

然后，然后，然后那就会成为新的比特币。

And, and, and that will be the new bitcoin.

顺便提一下，现在有比特币现金，还有萨塔希愿景比特币。

By the way, there's bitcoin cash, there's bitcoin, Satoshi vision.

还有各种各样的，有成千上万种不同的分叉版本。

There's all these, there's a thousand different forks of this.

狗狗币。

Doge.

狗狗币是比特币的一个分叉。

Doge is a fork of bitcoin.

它有上百万个分叉版本。

It's a million different fork.

这些版本都没能成功，因为没人达成共识。

None of them have got any success behind it because no consensus formed around it.

但我想说的是，在足够严重的状况下，人们重新达成共识，选择回到某个节点重启系统，这其实并不离谱。

But my my what I'm saying here is that I think in a severe enough situation that that it's it's not unreasonable to expect that that people would would find a new consensus to go, well, let's just let's just go back to this point and go and go forward.

这肯定会造成巨大震荡。

And it'd be very disruptive.

对。

Yeah.

但我认为这

But I think that's a

是个关键点。

key point.

我还要提一下，这周。

I will say too this week.

我们录制这段时正值六月的最后一周，澳大利亚审慎监管局确实表示，人工智能可能对金融体系构成威胁，原因跟你刚才说的一模一样：我们早已习惯了现有的货币体系，而你提出的问题非常合理。不过我得说，我远没有你那么看好比特币。

We're recording this in the last week of June, and APRA has actually said they reckon AI is a threat to the financial system, potentially, for for exactly the same same reason you're talking about, which is we're we're kind of used to we're used to money as we know it, and I I think the question for our is very reasonable, but it and I'm not I'm nowhere near as big a bitcoin bull as you are.

当然，听众们都清楚这一点。

I'm obviously listeners know that.

但说到底，我们讨论的是一种账本，比特币的账本和澳新银行的账本虽然不同，但核心理念是一样的——都是为了记录账户信息。

But the reality is we're talking about a ledger, and and the the bitcoin ledger or the ANZ ledger are different but similar in concept in terms of what they are there for, which is to keep a record a in theory, I'd say Record of accounts.

记录，或者随便你怎么叫它。

Record or a or whatever record.

用‘官方’来形容比特币是不对的，因为它本来就是去信任的。

Official is the wrong word for Bitcoin because it's trustless.

但你的账户信息、余额，本质上也是一种记录，你信任澳新银行会准确维护这些数据，并在你需要时让你动用资金。

But, know, the the your account details, your account balance is a record, and you trust ANZ to keep that record as it is and make those funds available should you want them.

而这种机制，恰恰可能被人工智能利用而变得脆弱。

And that that can be vulnerable to AI.

我不确定是比比特币更多还是更少，因为我既不是编程专家，也不是AI专家，而且全面的AI肯定会找到不同的方式来做不同的事情。

I don't know whether as much as less than more than bitcoin, because I'm no I'm no coding expert, no AI expert, and full on AI is gonna find different ways of doing different things.

我只想说它们都是这样。

I would simply say they are both that.

所以，在多大程度上AI对比特币构成威胁，

And so to whatever extent, AI is a threat to bitcoin.

它就构成威胁。

It's a threat.

再说一次，我不是说情况完全一样，但它对其他银行账本构成的威胁，原因也是类似的。

And, again, I'm not saying more or less all the same, but it's a threat in the same way to other bank ledgers for exactly the same sorts of reasons.

我觉得这才是关键点。

I think that's that's probably the key.

说到比特币，奇怪的是，我到现在还没买。

AI, the weird thing about bitcoin, I still don't have it.

我对它的了解还没到百分之百透彻。

I'm not still, like, 100% across it.

全面理解，我还没做到

Across it, I don't have a

百分之百。

100%.

你从来都没彻底搞懂过。

You never reached the bottom.

没人能完全理解比特币，这没关系。

No one no one understands bitcoin, and that's okay.

没错。

That's right.

不过我的看法是，我更信任像比特币这样无须信任的系统，还是更信赖像澳元或者我的澳新银行账户这样的权威机构？

My my view, though, do I feel better about a trustless system like bitcoin or a an appeal to a higher authority like the Australian dollar slash my ANZ bank account?

说实话，我不知道答案。

I don't know the answer to that, honestly.

它们不一样，两种方式都有可能发展出不同的结果，取决于记录如何被修正、回滚、保存或备份。

They're different, and there are different ways that either could play out depending on how the records were resolved or or rolled back or kept or backed up.

所以我也说不准。

And so I don't I don't know.

但我觉得，从执行方式上看它们不同，可风险类型、风险根源以及可能的结果形态，AI 都可能带来同样的问题。

But I would say they're different in terms of execution, but the same sorts of risks, the same cause of the risk and same potential style of outcome can be the result of AI.

所以，我个人对比特币的担忧，并不会比对我的澳新银行账户更多或更少。

And so I wouldn't personally be any more or less concerned about bitcoin than I am about my ANZ bank account.

关键在于，一旦出事，到底该怎么解决。

The question is how either would get resolved.

但愿上帝保佑，我们永远不用在任何一方上真刀真枪地硬碰硬。

And and good lord willing, we never have to fight out on either front.

澳新银行那边该怎么解决，其实很清楚。

There is a there there is a clear way the ANZ thing will be resolved.

比特币该怎么解决，也有一条明确的路。

There's a clear way the bitcoin thing will be resolved.

可现实中，这些事到底会怎么发生呢？

How would it actually happen in in reality?

我们永远都不会知道。

We'll never know.

那么，在我看来，这算是一种风险吗？

And and so is it a risk in my view?

算。

Yes.

它比主权货币或者商业银行的账户风险更大吗？

Is it a bigger risk than, you know, sovereign currency slash bank accounts with a commercial bank?

我不这么认为。

I don't tend to think so.

它可能会更大，也可能会更小，但在我看来，两种情况都存在风险。

It may end up being a bigger risk or a smaller risk, but the risk is there in both cases in my view.

是的。

Yeah.

挺有意思的。

It's funny.

对吧？

Right?

真的，这概念挺难理解的。但就像外界那些批评一样，很多批评者其实自己也没做到位。

Like, it's just it's very it's very hard thing to wrap your head around, but it's like so many of the criticisms that are out there, it really is people in glass houses.

我是说，前两天我和一个朋友聊得挺好，他一直在说这些都是虚构的。我就问他，你知道什么是债券吗？

I mean, I had a really good chat to a friend the other day and he was, you know, talking about how it's all made up and it's like, well, have you do you know what a bond is?

你能具体指出哪一张是债券吗？

Point can you point to this bond?

对。

Yeah.

现在房间里有人拿着债券吗？

Is the bond in the room with us right now?

这完全是个虚构的法律合同。

It's completely made up legal contract.

它不过是个协议而已。

It's just it's an agreement.

它好不好用，全看能不能落实执行。

It's only as good as how well it can be enforced.

它在现实世界里根本不存在，摸不着也看不见。

It doesn't exist in the real tangible universe.

就连那些死磕黄金的人也会说，哎呀，我买了黄金ETF，那是真的，有实物支撑的。

Even even the gold bugs are like, well, I've got a gold ETF and that's real and it's physical and touches it.

但你根本摸不到你的ETF啊。

You can't touch your ETF.

你去过金库吗？

Do you have you have you gone to the vault?

你检查过黄金吗？有没有做过审计？

Have you looked at have you done an audit of the gold?

没有。

Like, no.

信我，从头到尾都是信任问题。

It's it's trust me, bro, all the way down.