SpaceX 准备就绪，即将发射。2026 年 6 月 12 日

也许我们下一步就做这个。

Maybe that will do that next.

咱们走着瞧吧。

We'll see how we go.

老兄，咱们先来谈一谈

Mate, so let's let's take the

现在正好可以转个话题，因为我们刚才聊着聊着就扯到埃隆和SpaceX还有别的事情上了。

opportunity now to pivot because we kinda started talking about talking about Elon and SpaceX and other things.

当然，我们之所以这么聊，一部分是因为我们本来就喜欢跑题，另一部分是因为等你听到这段的时候——具体取决于你什么时候听——我觉得那家公司周五就要在美国上市了。

And of course, we're doing that in part because we just like tangents, also in part because the by the time this is being listened to, depending on when you're listening to it, I believe the company's going public Friday US time.

所以如果你是在节目刚发布时听的，那正好赶在上市前。

Which means if you're listening to this when it gets released, it's just before.

如果你是刚上市后听的，那就像往常一样，你比我们多一个优势：你知道接下来几天发生了什么。

If you're listening to it just after, as always, you have the benefit we don't have, which is the ability to know what happened in the next couple of days.

我们是在6月11日星期四早上录的这个。

We're recording this Thursday morning, the June 11.

所以我不会对股价走势做任何预测。

So I am gonna make no predictions on the share price movement.

不过拉姆要是想大胆预测一番，看看自己对不对，他随便。

Though Ram's welcome to make reckless outstanding predictions and see if he's right, if he wants to.

我倾向于摩根大通的看法。

I'll go with the JPMorgan.

股价会

It will

波动很大，这个预测挺准的。

be volatile prediction.

股价肯定会起伏不定。

It will fluctuate.

不过聊一聊还是有道理的，兄弟。

So so but it's worth it's worth talking about for a few reasons, mate.

这个公司本身就很值得聊聊。

The business itself is worth talking about.

今天早上我刚跟你说过，财经圈里有个新闻，说澳大利亚的NBN要和亚马逊的新低轨卫星业务合作，这可是直接跟星链竞争。

I mentioned to you only this morning that there's a story in the fin about the NBN partnering with Amazon's new low earth orbit satellite business direct competition of Starlink.

那边现在真是热闹得很。

So there's there's kind of lots going on there.

SpaceX当然也算人工智能领域的一环，这事儿也别忘了。

SpaceX, of course, part AI, so you got that going on as well.

埃隆还是老样子，一如既往地疯狂。

You got Elon being Elon.

你听这段的时候，他有可能已经变成万亿富翁了，这想法简直让人难以置信，说到加码，他可真是越加越猛。

The chance he might be a trillionaire by the time you listen to this is just mind blowing speaking of doubling down and doubling down.

到目前为止，他确实干得相当出色。

He certainly certainly done a good job with that so far.

现在澳大利亚公众能拿到专门为本地投资者准备的正式招股文件，这事儿真不简单。

There's a there's a heap that the fact that's now available to the Australian public as a specific prospectus for Australian investors is a hell of a thing.

我觉得这还是头一回发生。

It's the first time I think it's been done.

这意味着澳大利亚投资者会更积极地参与国际投资，这方面的话题可太广了。

Means international investing is going to be more embraced by Australian investors, so that angles all over the place there.

SpaceX入局对ETF也会产生影响。

There is the impact on ETFs of of SpaceX going in.

相关的事情太多了。

There's lots of stuff.

顺便说一句，我们之前也讨论过ETF的影响。

We've asked about it before too, by the way, the ETF impact.

我先随便说点想法吧，兄弟，你接着聊，咱们再好好聊聊。

I I I'll I'll start with some random thoughts, mate, and just I'll I'll invite you to follow-up and then we can have a have a chat.

这名字其实挺适合做播客的，就叫‘随机想法’吧。

That's actually a good name for a podcast, Random Thoughts.

这倒是个重新 branding 的好机会。

There's a rebrand right

我本来想说，他们大概也只能拿这个来聊点随想，反过来也一样，至少目前是这样。

I was gonna say, well, they can only effectively just use it for random thoughts and vice versa, I suspect, at this point anyway.

目前给出的估值是17700亿美元，这是根据流通股价格和IPO价格算出来的。

1,770,000,000,000 US dollar valuation is the number that's being given based on the float price, the IPO price.

他们上市的定价简直离谱。

They are listing some stupidly

只是稍微高了一点吗？

just a little bit?

那会怎么样呢？

How would

我能不能赶紧插一句？

you mind if I do just quickly?

当然可以。

Yeah.

说吧。

Go.

好的。

Yeah.

这些数字到底是从哪儿来的？

Because these like, where does this number come from?

对。

Yeah.

嗯，有家公司叫SpaceX。

Well, you know, there's a company, SpaceX.

你拿总估值除以总股数，再乘以向公众发行的IPO价格。

You divide it by the number of shares and you multiply it by the issue price that you're offering it to the public, the initial public offering to the public.

这里要注意的是，他们并没有把所有股份都拿出来上市。

The thing to remember here is they're not listing all of the shares.

其实流通股的数量挺小的，你刚才提到‘流通股’这个词，用得挺频繁的。

It's a pretty small, that's when you said the word float, gets thrown around a lot.

我前几天提了一嘴，后来有人盯着我看，我才意识到，哎呀，我又在说那些让人听不懂的行话了。

I mentioned it the other day and someone looked at me finally, I realized, Oh, I'm doing that horrible jargon thing.

谢谢。

Thank you.

对。

Yeah.

所以流通股就是市场上可以交易的那部分股份。

So float is just that proportion that is on the market that you can trade.

并不是所有SpaceX的股票都会在纳斯达克上市供你买卖。

So not all of the SpaceX shares are gonna be on the Nasdaq that that you can you you can trade.

只有其中一小部分会流通。

There's only a small proportion of them.

但一旦你有了……

But once you've yeah.

一旦股价在招股书中确定，再由二级市场形成实际价格，就可以用总股本来计算了。

But once you've got a market price either set in the prospectus and then set by the secondary market itself, you just take the full number of shares and do it.

没人会投入一万七千七百亿美金。

So no one's putting in $1,770,000,000,000.

这部分股票根本不出售，但那个数字就是这么来的。

That much is not for sale, but that's where the number comes from.

我来稍微展开说一下。

Just just to flesh that out a little bit.

接着说。

Continue.

不用了。

No.

我喜欢这个说法。

I like it.

反过来讲，你的股价就是市场估值除以总股数。

And goes the other way, by way, your share price is the the market value divided by the number of shares.

两种理解都可以，你说得对。

You can look at it either way but you're right.

谢谢你帮我梳理清楚，我随便算了一下，估值是1.8万亿美元。

Thank you for thank you for So unpacking it's it's I've got 1,800,000,000,000 US dollars for the fun of it.

这个数字挺合理，也很清晰，很有帮助。

That's very, very comfortably and nicely and helpfully.

这问题你心里有数，老兄。

You you know the answer to this, mate.

你知道这个收入倍数大概是多少吗？

Do you know how what proportion or what multiple of revenue that is?

我觉得是一百倍。

I'm gonna say a 100.

正好是一百倍的收入。

It's exactly a 100 times revenue.

SpaceX去年的收入是180亿美元。

$18,000,000,000 was the revenue of SpaceX last year.

你知道他们去年亏了多少钱吗？

And do you know how much money they lost last year?

很多吗？

A lot?

50亿美元。

$5,000,000,000.

所以他们得有钱来

So they money to

赚钱啊，朋友。

make money, my friend.

没错。

Right.

你居然要花一万八千亿去买一家去年营收才一百八十亿、还亏了五百亿的公司。

You're gonna be paying $1,800,000,000,000 for a business with $18,000,000,000 of sales that lost $5,000,000,000 last year.

我可不是说它以后赚不了钱。

Now, I'm not saying for a second it can't make money.

我也不是说它不可能盈利。

I'm not saying it can't be profitable.

我甚至没说你从现在的股价里赚不到钱。

I'm not even saying that you can't make money from this current share price.

我只是想让你看清，这家公司要爬的这座山有多高多陡——更准确地说，是股东们如果决定买入，就要一起爬这座山。

I'm just highlighting the size and slope of the mountain it's choosing to climb or, more importantly, shareholders are choosing to climb if they choose to buy the shares.

也许这笔生意能成。

Now maybe it works.

顺便说一下，短期的供需关系我们一会儿就讲。

And by the way, in the short term, we'll get the supply and demand in a minute.

短期内股价可能涨也可能跌。

Shares could go anywhere in the short term.

真正关键的是长期：它能不能把销售额和利润提升到足以支撑当前股价的水平？而且得快到能跟上市场，甚至将来能超越市场，因为你最终得在十年内证明这个价格是合理的。

The long term question is, can it grow its sales and profit to a point where it can justify this price and quickly enough that you can keep up with the market or eventually catch up with the market and overtake it at some future point because you just have to justify the price in ten years.

十年后，市场可能已经涨了——希望吧，我不知道——涨了150%。

In ten years on the market might be up, hopefully, I don't know, a 150%.

如果真是这样，咱们就当玩儿个假设：SpaceX得值3.645万亿美元，才勉强能跟上市场步伐。

So if if that if that's true, just for the fun of it, if that's true, right, SpaceX would have to be worth $3.64500000000000 dollars just to kept up with the market.

所以你不仅得让利润增长快到匹配现在的估值，

So not only do you

如果还想让估值不被市场甩开，它还得再加速增长，因为那时候市场本身又更高了。

have to have profit growth fast enough just by the current valuation, but if that valuation is gonna keep up with the market, at least keep up with the market, it needs to grow faster again because the market needs to be higher again at that point.

所以，我们目前就处在这个位置上。

So that's kinda where we that's where we find ourselves.

这个业务大致可以分为三个主要部分。

The business is rather in three broad parts.

可回收火箭技术，其实也不是那么回事。

It is the re landable rocket source, not really.

就是整个航天火箭业务，所有它在做的事情。

It's just the the space, the rocket business generally, right, all the stuff it does.

把卫星和载荷送入轨道，谢谢。

Putting satellites in Payloads into Payloads, thank you.

对。

Yep.

所有这些方面都很不错。

All that kind of good stuff.

还有星链那套低地球轨道卫星系统。

It is the Starlink low earth orbit satellite stuff.

我现在用Starlink在录音，作为用户，我真的很看好这家公司。

I'm literally recording using Starlink right now, so I'm a big fan of the company as a user.

还有就是x AI。

And it is x AI.

今年AI肯定会特别火，因为很可能又有几家AI公司要上市。

And again, AI is gonna be super sexy this year because there's another couple of IPOs likely to come from AI businesses.

所以，这就是公司的三个业务板块。

So those are the three bits of the business.

如果你买股票，那就是在赌它能快速增长，从而配得上现在的估值，也许你真能赢。

If you are buying shares, you are betting that it can grow fast enough to justify the valuation and maybe you can.

市场得足够大，才能支撑起当前的估值。

The market big enough, justify the current valuation.

说白了，你要么觉得自己特别聪明，要么就是甘愿亏钱——行啊，你随意，不过我也能卖你一座桥。

That's that by definition you're better or you're or you're happy to take a loss which, know, if you that's you knock yourself out but also, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

没人觉得没问题，因为他们都预期……

It No one's fine because they expect that

你会亏钱。

you make a loss.

对吧？

Right?

对，或者

Rightly or

不管对错，确实如此。

wrongly, that's Exactly.

不是

Not the

这就是人们要攀登的这座山有多高。

So that's the size of the mountain people are climbing.

我再快速说一句，老兄，别插话。

I also will say very quickly and passing on the throat of you, mate.

我觉得这种心理现象特别有意思。

I find it incredibly I find the psychology of this really fascinating.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

哎，看起来是个挺酷的公司。

Say, oh, it looks like a cool company.

做得还不错。

It's done pretty well.

我就随便投点钱，跟着凑个热闹吧。

I'll just I'll just throw some money out and just go for the ride.

对。

Mhmm.

我就说吧，假设投一千块。

I'm like, let let's say it's a thousand bucks.

除非你真觉得那些马背上的花纹特别吸引人，非得在罗斯希尔周末赛上押一千块在第五匹马身上。

Unless you're gonna say, oh, I like the I like the look of horses with their with their colors on their backs, I just gotta throw throw a thousand bucks on number 5 at Rosehill on the weekend.

就随它去吧，看看会怎样。

Just let it ride and see what happens.

对。

Mhmm.

你就是在这么做。

That that's what you're doing.

你真真切切就是在这么做。

That's literally what you're doing.

对吧？

Right?

这也没关系。

And that's okay.

你想这么做，完全可以。

You can do it if you want to.

你得明白，你现在的做法本质上就是在赌博，而且赌注比去赛马场还高，你却在说服自己，这不算赌博，而是所谓的投资，或者所谓的商业行为，或者所谓的正经事，诸如此类。

Just recognize that what you are doing is effectively gambling with more zeros than you would take to the track, and you're convincing yourself that maybe somehow it's justified because it's air quotes investing or something air quotes business or air quotes productive or something else.

SpaceX的效率可比赛马高多了。

Now, SpaceX is more productive than a horse going around a track.

给那些赛马爱好者道个歉，但事实就是如此。

Apologies to the horse racing fans out there, it just is.

但当你用这种说法、采取这种态度时——除非你真打算去兰威克赌第五场，否则别这么投资。

But when you when you use that language, you take that approach, again, unless you would throw it in the fifth at Randwick, don't don't don't invest that way.

别这么做，别这么做，就算我说了别这么做，你还是得自己拿主意。

Don't don't or or or if you are again, because I say don't.

我真的是认真的：如果你不听我的，那就干脆随你便吧。

I literally do mean don't in the sense that, otherwise, just do it anyway.

这正是我想说的重点。

That that's that's the point.

如果你真要拿马去赌，那就去吧。

If you're gonna throw throw the horse if you go to that.

如果你就只会这一招，那随便你，玩得开心就好。

If that that's all if that's the only approach you're taking, knock yourself out.

你可以把马放出去赌一把。

You can throw the horses.

如果你说，我不会这么干。

If you say, I wouldn't do that.

为什么不行？

Why not?

走一步看一步吧，毕竟也不太确定。

Walk because don't know exactly right.

这纯粹是赌博。

That's gambling.

是啊，确实如此。

Yeah, it is.

不过，这话说远了，老兄。

Anyway, that's a little aside, mate.

该你聊聊SpaceX了。

Over to you on SpaceX.

有太多话想说了。

So much to say.

你得记住，对于一次IPO来说，成功总是有两重解读。

So the the you gotta remember too that the the there's always two ways of looking at success for an IPO.

他们说谢谢。

They Thank you.

我老觉得自己在替投资银行家说话，但其实我真的不是这个意思。

And I I always it feels like I'm like I'm I'm making a case for investment bankers, and so I'm I'm really not.

但你知道，视角很重要，确实有些私人投资者希望尽可能最大化他们的回报。

But, you know, perspectives matter, and and there are people who private investors in the company who want to get as much of value as as they can.

在他们看来，成功的IPO就是能以营收百倍的估值全额募满。

They a successful IPO from their perspective is getting a fully subscribed IPO offer at a 100 time revenue valuation.

这才叫成功。

That's that's that's success.

如果你是自家街角小店的股东，突然听说……你会怎么想？

What would you want if you own shares in, you know, your local corner shop and it said, hey.

我们要在澳洲证交所上市，结果只想压到最低价卖出去。

We're listing on the ASX and go, oh, see if can get away for the lowest price possible.

不对。

No.

你应该争取最高的定价。

You want the highest price possible.

就算上市后股价暴跌80%，那也可能是更成功的IPO，因为你成功让足够多的人相信，这家公司值这个价，而且持续相信了足够久。

So even if it crashes and burns afterwards and the shares drop 80%, that's still a that's it's actually arguably an even more successful IPO because you managed to convince enough people for a long enough time that this was that this was actually worth it.

听起来有点消极，但事实就是这么消极。

It sounds a little bit negative, but it is really negative.

假设Nasty是其中一个

Suppose nasty is one of the

最好的秘诀，所有这些因素都是。

best secrets, all those things.

对，没错。

Yeah, yeah.

所以我只是想强调这一点。

So I just make that point.

对吧？

Right?

而且说实话，这根本就是另一回事。

And that and you can well, that's outright.

别买这些股票。

Don't buy the shares.

关键是这么回事。

Here's the thing.

价格真的合适吗？

Is it the right price?

作为一个自由市场支持者，我觉得如果公司公开发售，公众真的说‘我们要，越多越好’，

I would say as a free market enthusiast that if if if they offered it to the public and the public said, yes, please.

那我们就拿多少都行。

We'll take as much as you can.

那么价格就是合理的，因为人们完全是出于自愿，自己决定要买的。

Then then the price was fair because people, you know, of their own volition and free will just decided to do it.

而且

And

不过正如我们之前聊过的，这背后需要做大量工作，我很快也会在接下来的播客里专门讲一讲。

There is a lot of work though as we've talked about before and probably I think I gotta talk about soon in in the uploading upcoming podcast as well.

这本身就是市场价格。

It's it's a market price.

是的。

Yes.

没错，就是这样。

That's well, exactly.

但这就是市场。

But that that's the market.

我们说的市场，指的就是这个。

That's all we mean with the market.

你懂的。

You know?

就是那些拥有东西的人，和那些想拥有东西的人达成一致的那个点。

It's just like that point at which people who own something and those who would like to own something agree.

市场就是这么回事。

That that's that's what a market is.

每当我看到这些估值，我都惊得合不拢嘴。

I'm also I'm also my jaw is on the floor when I look at those valuations.

不过呢，我现在比以前更成熟、更清醒了。

Nevertheless, I'm a little older and wiser than I have been.

是的。

Yes.

我不会再觉得这太荒谬了，因为我以前就这么想过。

And I am not going to go, that's so silly because I did that in the past.

你还记得吧，2012年。

You'll remember, mate, 2012.

我觉得我们最近一期播客也聊过这个。

I think we talked about this on a recent pod as well.

我想我知道我这是

I guess I know I'm

不管怎么说，这也不是什么丢人的错误。

not a shame mistake anyway.

接着说。

Go on.

是的。

Yeah.

请继续。

Go, please.

2012年，Facebook上市时股价是每股32美元。

So Facebook listed at $32 a share in 2012.

对。

Yes.

那也是一百倍了。

That was also a 100 times.

其实那可能是市盈率一百倍，连市销率都还没算上。

Actually, that might have been a PE of a 100 times, not even a price to sales.

我边聊你边去查一下。

I'll get you to look that up while I chat.

不管怎样，想想看，股市平均市盈率一般也就十五、十六、十七左右。

Either way, when you consider that the average PE on the market is usually around fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, something like that.

那时候已经高到那个份上了。

It was sort of up there.

市盈率八十五？

P of eighty five, mate?

市盈率八十五，没错。

P of eighty five, there

每股股价这么高，公司估值超过一千亿美元，现在想想，真是挺吓人的。

you dollars a share and the company was valued over a $100,000,000,000, which sounds quite now if you think about it.

在现代这个年代，八十五的市盈率确实有点离谱。

In in the in the modern era, it's kind of like, yeah, that's what's wrong with P of eighty five.

但这其实很正常。

That's perfectly normal.

不过我说真的，孩子们，这种高市盈率在过去很长一段时间里都极其罕见。

But but trust me, kids, that that was very unusual for a very long period of time.

我甚至敢说，就连现在这种情况也并不常见。

And and and I would dare say probably even at this period of time.

但到底发生了什么？

But but what happened?

他们上市了。

They floated.

他们挂牌了。

They listed.

没错。

Mhmm.

股价崩盘了。

The share price crashed.

对啊。

Yep.

确实如此。

Did.

像你我这样的人还觉得自己特别聪明。

People like you and me went, we're so clever.

我就知道会这样。

I knew that was gonna happen.

我跟你说过。

I you.

我早就告诉过你。

I told you.

对有眼光的人来说，这事儿太明显了。

It was so obvious to someone with such Yep.

你懂的，这种对资本市场运作的深刻洞察力。

You know, such wise deep understanding of of how capital markets work.

连瞎子都能看出来的事，大家还互相击掌庆祝。

It was Blind Freddy could have seen it, you know, high fives all around.

他倒是说，哦。

He's like, oh.

我能讲个故事让你明白吗？

Can I tell you the story just to call it out?

从那以后，股价涨了整整一千万百分比。

It's up 10000000% since then.

所以你是在听的。

So you're listening.

哪怕你是在最初发行时买的。

Even if you bought on the float.

对吧？

Right?

上市时的发行价是38美元。

$38 at at float was the IPO price.

当天收盘价是38.23美元。

It closed at that price, $38.23.

那是2012年5月的事。

That was in May 2012.

三个月后，到了2012年8月，股价跌到了19.05美元。

Three months later at well, I'm gonna here's a pro $19.05 in August 2012.

百分比。

Percent.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

从19美元涨到了现在的571美元。

Went from $19 to you sit down, $571 now.

当初市值一千亿美元，现在涨到一万四千五百亿美元了。

The $100,000,000,000 market cap, $1,450,000,000,000 today.

顺便说一下，

Now, by the way

这并不仅仅是估值倍数的提升。

wasn't a story of just multiple expense.

换句话说，市场愿意为每股收益支付越来越高的价格。

In other words, the the market paying a higher and higher multiple of earnings.

利润增长得非常快。

Earnings grew like the clappings.

实际上，现在的市盈率是20。

In fact, the p is now 20.

市盈率已经下降了四分之一，对，

Janet, the p has fallen by a quarter Mhmm.

但股价还是涨了14倍。

And the share price is still up 14 times.

是的。

It's yeah.

这真是一个了不起的故事。

It is a remarkable story.

当时的问题是，他们能把这个商业化吗？

And the question was, can they commercialize this?

他们能把用户流量转化为收入或利润吗？

Can they turn a turn eyeballs into revenue or revenue or profits?

答案是显而易见且肯定的：能。

The answer is an astoundingly obvious and positive yes.

它已经做到了，现在能做到，将来也一定能做到。

It absolutely has, can, will, and still is.

这才是真正了不起的地方。

And that was was kind of the huge story.

前几天我提到这一点时，有人跟我说：‘哦，我现在可不会买。’

I made the point the other day about that and someone said, oh, yeah, I wouldn't buy it now.

这根本无关紧要。

It's like irrelevant.

完全无关。

Irrelevant.

重点就是这么个道理。

The point the point stands.

都十四年了。

Like, is fourteen years later.

谁知道呢。

Who knows?

我没说它对还是不对。

I'm not saying it is or isn't.

我对Meta和Facebook的事儿没有立场。

I I don't have a dog in the fight when it comes to Meta and and Facebook.

但我可以肯定地说，从历史事实来看，当时那些数据看起来荒唐透顶，却是个无比精彩的上市机会。

But but but I can say definitively as a as an empirical fact of history that that was an incredible IPO to to buy in on when all of the headline figures looked looked, you know, nonsensical.

所以啊，去碰一下热炉子，这其实是个挺好的经历。

And and and that's that is touching the stove is a really good thing to do.

你懂的。

You know?

你得真被烫一下才行。

You you kind of need to burn your fingers.

你跟孩子说话的时候，老是这么说。

You always say it with the kids.

就像我跟我老婆一样。

It's like with my wife.

就让他们去碰碰炉子吧。

It's like, let them touch the stove.

当然不是真去碰，意思是，不管爸妈怎么说，孩子该想干的事儿，还是非干不可。

Like, not literally, but it's like, there's no amount of commentary from mom and dad that's gonna stop you wanting to do that thing.

当然得有底线，但有些事就是，行吧，你去试试，看看结果会怎样。

Obviously there are limits, but this is certain things is like, all right, go and do that and see how that works out for you.

那时候我就想，哦，这是一次成长的经历。

It was like, oh, that's a learning experience.

对吧？

Right?

这对我来说也是个教训，像这样的公司，你得留个心眼。

And that was a learning experience for me and what these kinds of companies you have to be careful of.

再说一遍，看来我得小心点。

And again, sounds like I gotta be careful here.

你刚才听起来好像觉得这事儿挺负面的，现在我听起来又好像在说正面的。

You've kind of sounded like, oh, it's negative and now I'm sounding like, oh, now it's positive.

我们俩都没说错。

Neither of us Correct.

我们只是想把整个观点慢慢理清楚。

We're trying to sort of flesh out the full full argument here.

对。

Mhmm.

但这是一家同时在忙很多事的公司。

But this is a business that has a lot of irons in the fire.

我们刚又启动了一项新业务，那个是……

And we just started the Different a a fire, you That's

另一件事。

the other thing.

就是说，现在有好几件事在同时进行。

It's like there's there's multiple things going on.

我们本来没打算这样，但仔细想想，这其实正好自然地引出了播客的主题——大量尝试、多线并行。

Which and we didn't plan it, but now that I think about it, actually a a lovely lead into the to the podcast was was that idea of lots of experimentation, lots of different things.

而这也是马斯林擅长的地方。

And that's what that's what Elon is good at.

你可能因为喜欢火箭，才买了SpaceX的股票。

It might well be that you buy shares in SpaceX thinking, I love rockets.

对。

Yes.

但十年后，人们才发现，哦，原来是这样。

But in ten years time, it was like, oh, yeah.

一切都围绕着人工智能。

Was all about the AI.

你懂的。

You know?

那时候，重点全在他们资产负债表上那一万六千枚比特币之类的东西上。

It it it it was all it was all about the 16,000 Bitcoin on their balance sheet or whatever it happens to be.

对吧？

Right?

我不是在否认，这事儿已经板上钉钉了。

And it's kind of like, I'm not arguing that it is a fait accompli.

它已经注定会发生，但可能性依然存在。

It is done and it is written in the stars and destined to be, but it's possible.

而且这根本不是什么天方夜谭。

And it's not even like impossibly possible.

是的，这种情况完全可能发生。

It's, yes, it could easily happen.

但也可能不会。

It could not.

但也可能不会。

It could not.

而这里正是赌注所在。

And therein lies the bet.

但面对这种极其庞大的数字和倍数时，你得格外小心。

But you've got to be careful of these very, very large numbers and large multiples.

当你在看一家公司，它的潜在市场 literally 是九十亿人的时候，而且分析师们常犯的另一个错误是——

When you are looking at a company that whose total addressable market is literally 9,000,000,000 people, and and and when you and these are the other mistake analysts make.

他们会说，这个市场的规模这么大。

They go, the size of the market is this.

但即便他们能拿下80%的份额，这市场也还是太小了。

It's a tiny market even if they captured 80% of it.

这就像是亨利·福特当初推出T型车时说，汽车市场太小了。

It's like me going, you know, when Henry Ford rolled off the the model t and said, well, you know, the automobile market is tiny.

结果发现，只有少数贵族才拥有这些该死的玩意儿。

It turns out that only a few aristocrats have these have these damned contraptions.

市场太小了。

It's it's a tiny market.

这有什么大不了的。

A whoop de doo.

你可能只服务得起社会里最富有的那2%。

You're gonna get the top 2% of of society wealth wise might be your customer.

要是增长十倍呢？

What if they 10 x?

那还是很小。

Will be small.

对，没错。

It's yeah.

即使翻十倍，也不过就是那样。

Even if they 10 x is like, yeah.

但如果每个人都有车呢？

But what if what if everyone has a car?

对吧？

Right?

如果每个人都在用某种形式的AI助手呢？

What if everyone is using an AI assistant in some form?

这些才是真正让人想破头的事情。

These are the things that really sort of break your brain.

我马上就不说了，只是想再强调一下你的观点：没损失，就没失败。

Now, I'll shut up in a minute and just sort of say, this is to your just to, I guess double down on your point here is that no harm, no fail.

我绝对不是那种会批评想入手的人。

I'm the last person to criticize anyone who wants to buy in this.

但正如你很好地指出的，价格里确实带点预期成分。

But just know that as you've nicely laid out, there is a bit of expectation in the price.

你得想想这种可能性有多大，就算它们真能像市场预期的那样成功，你的回报也只会是平均水平，因为这本来就是

You want to have a little bit of a view as to how likely that is and know that even if they are as successful as the market deems them to be, you will get an average return because that's kind of what

没错。

it That's right.

对吧？

Right?

意思是，想从这么高的估值里赚到像样的回报，它们就得增长得特别特别快。

Like in the sense that to get a decent return on such a high multiple means they just grew very, very fast.

如果你想获得远超平均的回报，那它们的增长就得远远超过市场已经预期的水平——更快、更大、更强，这当然有可能。

If you want an outsized return, it needs to grow even higher than or faster and bigger and larger than what the market is already expecting, which is possible.

完全有可能。

Absolutely possible.

但至少你得有个清晰的判断。

But at least have a thesis.

我管这叫靠感觉投资。

I call it vibe investing.

就像你说的，这跟赌博没什么区别。

Like you said, it's gambling.

想玩就玩吧，但这算不上正经的投资。

Have fun if you want to do it, it's not really a proper investing.

至少你得能说清楚，反正你只对自己负责。

At least be able to explain to no one else because you're only accountable to yourself.

跟未来的自己解释，为什么当初做了这个决定。

Explain to your future self why I did the thing.

就算结果错了，只要你有合理的理由，那也完全说得过去。

Even if you were wrong, if you had a reasonable rationalization, it was like that's perfectly decent.

如果只是像你说的，因为我喜欢火箭。

If it was just like, as you say, I like rockets.

火箭挺酷的。

Rockets are cool.

那可就真让人无语了。

Then it's like, oh my goodness.

就算你成功了，我照样会吐槽你。

Even if you're successful, I will still throw shade at you.

这可能纯粹是运气好。

This could be something that's dumb luck.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

是啊。

Yep.

顺便说一下，老兄，我们聊的是Facebook，我也挺喜欢的。

Just for for context, mate, we're about Facebook and I do like it.

我不会去买SpaceX的股票。

I I'm I wouldn't I'm not buying SpaceX shares.

让我直说吧。

Let me I'll put it out there.

我觉得风险实在太高，而潜在回报却相对太低。

I think they I think they I think the risk is way too big and the potential return is way too small relatively.

并不是说这件事概率上完全不可能发生。

Not that it doesn't probabilistically, doesn't mean it can't happen.

我只是想说，从你提到的结果分布和不对称性来看，我是不会买的。

I'm just saying if you range of outcomes, asymmetry to your point, mate, I'm not buying them.

不过话又说回来，这话题确实值得聊聊，所以我们来谈谈Meta或者Facebook，对吧？

That being said, it is worth talking about so we talk about Meta or Facebook, right?

它现在的年收入已经达到10亿美元了，明白吗？

It now has revenues of $2.00 $1,000,000,000 a year, Okay?

我提这个只是为了对比一下SpaceX，你可能会觉得180亿美元的收入已经很惊人了。

And that's worth pointing out only because you look at SpaceX and say, well, $18,000,000,000 of revenue feels like a big number.

对吧？

Right?

那它还能再增长多少？能变得多大？

So how much more how much bigger could it get?

答案是，还能大上好几倍。

And the answer is truckload's bigger.

Meta 和 SpaceX 完全没法比，无论是公司性质还是业务内容，根本不在一个维度上。

Now, Meta and and SpaceX are absolutely not comparable at all in any way shape or form in terms of the companies they are or the things they do.

但它们的市值可能并不会差得太远。

Their market caps are not gonna be that far apart potentially.

市值，也就是市场价值，就像你之前说的那样。

The market capitalization, market value, as you rightly explained earlier, mate.

所以你想想，如果 SpaceX 真能吸引到那将近九十亿人中的很大一部分，收入能接近 Meta 的水平，会怎么样？

And so that's that's it's just it's worth just thinking about if you were able to if SpaceX is able to capture your point, mate, some of the 9,000,000,000 people, and they get anywhere close to Meta's revenue.

如果它们还能拿到差不多的利润率——毕竟现在做火箭的，除了 SpaceX，就剩波音这些公司，但 NASA 的活儿基本都是 SpaceX 在干。

And if they get anything anything close to margins that they might be able to get as a single player, I mean, there's them and there's a Boeing, someone else doing doing rockets, but it's pretty much SpaceX doing most of NASA's rocket work now.

对吧？

Right?

还有大量独立卫星不断被发射升空。

Plus a whole of independent satellites being launched.

你想听个有趣的事实吗？

Do do you want do you want an interesting factoid?

目前所有环绕地球的人造卫星中，是的，

Of all of the satellites orbiting planet Earth Mhmm.

无论是俄罗斯、中国、欧洲航天局，还是其他任何国家或机构，

From the Russians, to the Chinese, the European Space Agency, everyone.

其中有三分之二都是SpaceX发射的。

Anyone who's ever put anything up there, SpaceX owns two thirds of them.

你看，就是这样。

There you go.

对吧？

Right?

还有另一个有趣的事实。

Here's the other little interesting factoid.

每年有两千颗卫星从轨道上坠落。

2,000 satellites drop out of orbit every year.

是的。

Yeah.

毕竟太空中还是有一点点空气阻力的。

Like, you know, there is a tiny amount of drag up there.

所以为了维持现有的卫星网络，他们每天得发射五颗卫星。

Anyway, so they have just to maintain the network that they have, they have to launch five satellites a day.

没错。

That's correct.

他们得频繁地发射火箭。

They lot of takeoffs got to do.

对。

Yeah.

正是如此。

Exactly.

他们可有得忙了。

They're gonna be busy.

你不妨想想这一点。

And so you kind of think about that.

我不是在贬低自行车行业。

So I'm not bike shit.

我不是说别的，但总觉得不对劲——两千亿美元的估值，五百亿美元的亏损，销售额的百倍增长，这到底怎么了？

I don't, you know, but I think it's just worth it feels like, you know, hang on, $2,000,000,000,000 valuation, $5,000,000,000 loss, you know, a 100 times sales, what the hell is going on?

当时我就觉得，这事儿真有意思。

Now, will say at the time, this is fascinating, right?

说到过去的上市机会，朋友，Facebook上市时市销率是24倍。

So just speaking of past opportunity, mate, when Facebook listed, it was 24 times sales.

Google上市时是5倍。

When Google listed, it was five times sales.

Apple上市时才3倍。

When Apple listed, it was three times sales.

而且当时它们都被认为是……

And they were all they were all considered Now,

我的意思是，当年那些所谓的估值错误——比如谷歌能有多大、苹果能有多大、脸书能有多大——随着每一家上市，人们逐渐明白了。

my point though is that a lot of the mistaken, in air quotes, valuation that was done at the time, how big could Google possibly be, how big could Apple possibly be, how big could Facebook possibly be, with each sequential listing, that's been learned.

换句话说，苹果从三倍市销率起步，那涨幅真是惊人。

In other words, the upside from Apple from three wow.

三倍市销率算便宜，对吧？

Three times is cheap, wasn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

确实便宜。

Was.

谷歌五倍市销率，那也便宜。

Five times Google, that's cheap.

脸书二十四倍市销率，那更是便宜。

Facebook, 24 times, that was cheap.

总有一天你会意识到，市场已经追上来了，机会也就没了。

At some point, you you realize the market's caught up, and the opportunity is no longer there.

过去三四十年，对科技投资者来说最了不起的一点就是，当初谁都没料到这些公司能长成这么大的体量，觉得它们现在还小得可怜。

And I think one of the things that have been amazing for tech investors over the past thirty, forty, forty, yeah, forty years has been the guess or forecast or lack or smarts behind this thing could be massive, it's only really small right now.

我愿意为未来能看到的增长多付钱。

I'm gonna pay up for the future growth I see.

这事儿我们聊亚马逊的时候已经说过无数次了。

That's the Amazon story we talked about a million times.

不过要是亚马逊今天才上市，价格肯定不会跟九月份那时候一样了。

At some point though, if Amazon lists today, it doesn't list at the same price listed in September.

对吧？

Right?

因为大家会反应过来：哦，原来它干的是这个。

Because people go, hang on, get I what it does.

原来它能做成这样。

I get what it can do.

我现在很清楚互联网能做什么。

I know what the Internet's capable of now.

所以我对它寄予了更高的期待。

I'm gonna ask for a lot more from that.

如果亚马逊今天上市，它的估值会远低于过去三十年给早期和持续投资者带来的回报，因为我们已经明白了。

And so the story of Amazon, if it listed today, would be far, far, far less value credit for IPO investors and for ongoing share investors than was delivered over the past thirty years because we know.

我们知道事情会怎么发展。

We we know how this plays out.

不是说我们能预知亚马逊下一步会做什么，而是我们更清楚它的商业模式、强大的扩展能力、轻资产运营带来的巨大机会，还有网络效应。

Not not that we know what Amazon's going to do, we are more cognizant of the business model, of the immense ability to scale, of the the amazing opportunity of a capital light business that can just grow like Topsy, of network effects.

这些年我们学到的很多东西，其实经常在说，没什么新鲜的，真的没什么新东西。

Some of the things that we've learned over that period of time, we say out regularly, it's nothing new under the sun, and there really isn't.

但科技能扩张的规模和速度，尤其是那种惊人的体量和节奏，是我们过去才慢慢学会或意识到的——有些东西扩张得快，有些慢，而亚马逊就是那个飞速扩张的典型。

But the the the scale, the capacity for tech to scale, in terms of just the sheer size and pace, that was something we had to learn maybe in you or maybe just recognize that something scaled fast, some don't, and this was one that scaled incredibly quickly.

但不管怎样，我不会说这有什么极限，因为‘历史的终结’这种说法，早就被喊过太多次了。

But either way, I'm not gonna say there's a limit to it, mate, because, you know, the the end of history has been forecast way too many times.

不过我要说，每一次这样的上市，市场都愿意出更高的价格，因为我看到了更光明的未来。

I will say though that each of those sequential listings, the market's gone, I will pay more for this because I see a brighter future.

理论上，总有一天我们能聪明到在上市时就给出一个合理的价格，就像你提到的公平定价，但这样一来，就没什么空间留给未来让人惊叹‘这公司成长得比我想象的还快’了。

And at some point, in theory, you should be able to say, we will get clever enough to pay a fair price, to your point about fair, at listing, which doesn't leave much for the future of, wow, this grew faster than I thought it could.

因为实际上，这些预期已经全被定价进去了。

Because effectively, that's already in the price.

价格本身就在说：这公司必须飞速成长，否则上市价就严重高估了，严重到离谱。

The price says, this thing will grow super fast because it has to, otherwise otherwise, the listing price is gonna be horribly, horribly, horribly overvalued.

所以总有一天，我们会跟上这个节奏。我不确定具体是什么时候，可能不是现在，也不是二十年后，甚至可能三年前就已经到了。但总有一天，我们会明白这个道理——技术投资者靠仅仅识别出‘增长能这么快’来赚钱的机会，会大大缩水。

So at some point, we just catch up with that, and I think there is, I don't know where it is, it might not be now, it might not be for twenty years or it might have been three years ago, but at some point, we learn that lesson and the opportunity for tech investors to make money from effectively just recognizing that growth can happen as fast as other people realize, that opportunity shrinks, I think, pretty meaningfully.

是的。

Yeah.

这真是个很有趣的观察。

It is a fascinating observation.

前几天我跟人聊到这个，他说：欢迎来到晚期资本主义。

I was actually talking about that with someone the other day and they said, welcome to late stage capitalism.

我不确定

I don't if

他们当时在场。

they were there.

我只是觉得

I just

他们都觉得是这样。

say they're all think it's that.

我觉得这一点早就被意识到了。

I just think I think it was recognized.

就像分类广告刚出现的时候，有人就说了：等等，这不对劲。

Like, when classified businesses were invented, someone went, hey, hang on.

这确实是个现象。

This is a thing.

当时我们还没用‘网络效应’这个词，但很明显，读者越多，广告商也越多。

And we didn't call network effects at the time, but it was obviously the case that more readers meant more more advertisers.

大概抓到重点了。

Kinda got the idea right.

后来某个人愿意出更高的价钱买它。

And so I just and at some point, someone paid more for it.

等等，这事儿可能真能做大。

So, hang on, this could actually be really big.

可口可乐，对吧？

And Coke, right?

可口可乐在国际上扩张。

Coke growing internationally.

我觉得全球化算是最后一个大阶段。

The globalization was the last version, so I reckon.

上一个重大转折点大概在七八十年代，可口可乐进军欧洲，那时候就意识到，这市场能比美国还大。

The last big kind of moment was probably in the seventies and eighties when Coke went to Europe and just took it's like, this can be bigger than just America.

要是这东西也能这么广泛地增长呢？

What if this could grow this, you know, this broadly?

我觉得SaaS和互联网企业就像是面向全球用户、不需要重资产、能实现巨大规模的类型，赢家通吃，你懂的。

I think the SaaS slash Internet businesses are kind of like global audience, capital light, massive scale, you know, winner takes most.

我的意思是，这点我们其实都知道。

Mean, just somewhere we know that.

我也不确定，也许你有不同看法。

I don't I don't I mean, you may a different view.

我不觉得这跟搜索资本有什么关系。

I don't think it is like search capital necessarily.

就算真是这样，我也不会把这当作证据。

I don't think it's I wouldn't say this is evidence of that if it is.

要说的话，我们只是刚意识到，当初第一座钢铁厂建起来的时候，有人就想过：要是这个能做成什么样呢？

Other than I think we just we just learned we just learned that there's not the first steel mill that was built, someone went, what if this could be whatever?

你这才反应过来：哎呀，我错过了这个机会。

You go, oh, I missed that.

等到第五座钢铁厂出现时，我才真正明白了。

By the fifth steel mill, I was like, I get it now.

理解这背后的经济逻辑就是，我愿意为一座钢厂出个公道的价格。

Understand the economics is I'll pay a fair price for the steel mill.

所以你拿不到那种现象级的回报。

And that's why you don't get blockbuster Yeah.

制造业公司上市，对吧？

Manufacturing businesses IPO ing, right?

因为我们能比较准确地评估它们的价值。

Because we can we can we can value them pretty well.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我可能说错了。

I could be wrong.

我不清楚这波热潮是不是已经到了顶点，还是说我们已经错过了，但我觉得，科技投资者创造的那些惊人财富，其实只是市场其他参与者还在学习的过程而已。

I just I I I don't know if this is it or we passed it, but I think at some point, the what has seemed to be amazing wealth creation by tech investors was just the learning curve the rest of the market was on.

一旦你走过了这个学习阶段，机会就变得显而易见了——因为当所有人都同时意识到这一点时，机会也就不再稀缺了。

And and once you're through that learning curve, that simple, I was there earlier, recognize it for anybody else, opportunities appeared because everyone else recognizes it at the same time.

我的意思是，作为人类，我们的思维方式本来就不容易理解这些数字。

I mean, I I think part of the problem is as a human, like the wet way we're running, it's just it's hard to wrap your head around the numbers.

确实如此。

It really is.

你就想想，我要成为悉尼最大的企业，嗯，这确实是个大企业，但再往上，是整个澳大利亚，或者南半球，每往上一步，你就会想，90亿人到底是个什么概念？

You know, it's just like, I'm gonna be the biggest business in Sydney, you know, like, well, it's a really big business, oh, in Australia or the Southern Hemisphere or the like, at every step you go up, like it's just what even is a 9,000,000,000 people?

这到底是什么景象？

What does that look like?

我说这话的时候，有人肯定在想：老兄，你拿个计算器算一下不就得了。

You know, I'm saying it and there are people going, dude, just get a calculator.

你完全可以算出来。

You can do it.

但你要想象它，就像你说的，想象这些事情是怎么规模化的——比如，脸书明天就能新增十亿用户，而他们的固定成本根本不会因此增加多少。

But I mean, to conceive of it and to as you say to conceive of how those things scale in the sense that you can add it, yeah Facebook could add a billion users tomorrow and their fixed costs don't go up that much.

没错。

Exactly.

服务器那边确实得多准备一点资源，但说到底也没多大差别。

It's a bit of extra provisioning from the servers and whatever but it's all much and muchness.

所以我们得好好吸取这个教训。

So yeah, we to sort of learn that lesson.

说实话，我也没打算买，但这不是因为我对它有偏见。

Look, I'm not buying it either but it's not because I'm negative on it.

我早就说过很多次了。

I'm really I've made the point many times.

我手上大部分东西，最后都扔进‘太难搞’那一堆了。

There's most of the things that come across my desk just go into the too hard basket.

我这个人就是不够聪明。

I'm just not a smart man.

我对这事真拿不定主意。

I just can't I'm really on the fence with this.

也从来没认真去研究过它。

And haven't actually given it the look deserves.

作为个人，我天生对那些人人都喜欢的东西保持警惕。

I'm always as an individual, I'm naturally cautious of things that everyone likes.

我心里总有个反叛分子，结果常常害了我自己。

There's a there's an inner contrarian to my own detriment.

万一大家都喜欢，而我不喜欢呢？

There is, like, what if everyone likes it, I don't.

对。

Yeah.

要是没人喜欢，我反而会喜欢。

If no one likes it, I do.

对吧？

Right?

几乎是本能反应，有时候这对我有帮助，但更多时候反而适得其反。

Like, Like almost almost instinctively and it's sometimes serves me well, oftentimes doesn't serve me well.

但确实有这么一点，因为这东西太普遍了，几乎渗透到了整个时代氛围里。

But but I've but there is an element of that because it is such a thing, you know, it's all pervasive in the zeitgeist.

就是，这有点太火了。

Just like, I that's a little bit too hot.

但还不止这样。

But but but it's more than that.

我实在没法预测。

It's just I can't handicap it.

五年后我们可能坐在一起聊天，那时候所有早早就入场的人都涨了十倍。

I I we we could be having a chat in five years time and this has just been like everyone who bought in on the float is is up a thousand percent.

而我真不会说，天哪。

And I and I honestly wouldn't go, oh my god.

我根本想不到会这样。

I could never have envisaged.

是啊。

Like, yeah.

这事完全可能发生。

Totally could see that happening.

但我也能想象，五年后它可能跌掉百分之八十。

But but I could also totally see it being down 80% in five years time.

所以啊，你根本没必要硬逼着自己进场。

So and this is so it's just like, you don't have to force a position.

这不就是巴菲特说的那个什么来着？

This is a beautiful, what does Buffett call it?

这就像打棒球里的‘不叫好球’。

It's a no strike game in referring to baseball.

完全不叫好球，也不算坏球。

No called No called strikes.

你只要

You just

坐在那儿等，等到球又慢又正好落在好打的位置，再挥棒就行。

sit there and just wait until the pitch is nice and slow and right in the middle of your swing and then you go for it.

对吧？

Right?