AI jitters, Big Tech earnings & the Fed decision

大家早上好，欢迎收听瑞银集团《市场动态》播客。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets Podcast.

今天是7月29日，星期三，我是露西娅·察库洛维奇。

It is Wednesday, July 29, and my name is Lucija Caculovic.

今天由我来主持这期节目。

I am your host today.

今天的内容安排得非常充实。

So we have a packed agenda for you today.

首先，我的同事扬·博普会和大家聊聊最新的市场动态。

Starting off, we will be joined by my colleague Jan Bopp, who will take us through the latest market developments.

接着，我会采访达里奥·梅西，提前解读今晚美联储的决策。

And then I'll be speaking to Dario Messi for a preview on tonight's Fed decision.

最后，马蒂厄·拉谢特也会做客节目，深入聊聊财报季的情况。

And finally, Mathieu Racheter will be on the show with us to delve deeper into the earnings season.

不过在那之前，扬，早上好。

But first, Jan, good morning.

很高兴你加入我们。

Great to have you with us.

早上好，露吉娅。

Good morning, Lucija.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

那我们先聊聊股市吧，扬。

So let's start with equities, Jan.

表面上看，昨天美国市场还挺坚挺的。

At first glance, US markets looked fairly resilient yesterday.

但深入一看，情况其实大不相同。

But beneath the surface, the picture was quite different.

没错，露吉娅。

Exactly, Lucija.

表面数据掩盖了明显的分化。

The headline numbers really masked a sharp divergence.

纳斯达克指数在交易时段大部分时间下跌超过2%，进入了回调区间。

The Nasdaq spent much of the session down more than 2% entering correction territory.

从六月高点算起，跌幅超过10%，但收盘时只跌了0.2%。

So down more than 10% from its June high before finishing just point 2% lower.

不过，标普500指数微涨0.2%，道琼斯指数则上涨了整整1%。

The broader S and P five hundred, however, rose point 2%, and the Dow Jones gained a full 1%.

所以现在的情况是，资金明显从科技股撤出，转向了更传统的行业。

So what we are seeing here is a clear rotation away from technology and into more, let's say, traditional sectors.

而且一月份，半导体股票确实承受了抛售的主要压力。

And January Semiconductor stocks really seem to be carrying the burden of the sell off.

Zendesk继续下跌，继前一天跌了11%之后，今天又跌了14%。

Zendesk extended its losses, falling another 14% after an 11% decline the previous day.

美光、AMD和英特尔的股价也都下跌了大约8%。

Micron, AMD and Intel were also down around 8%.

是的，露琪娅。

Yes, Lucija.

我的意思是，那些跌幅可真够剧烈的。

I mean, those were violent moves.

但其他市场板块，如我所说，表现相当不错。

But other parts of the market, as I said, performed very well.

消费防御类和医疗保健等防御性板块表现突出。

Defensive sectors such as consumer defensives and health care outperformed.

事实上，追踪医疗和金融股的基准指数昨天还创下了历史新高。

In fact, benchmark indices tracking health care and financial stocks even reached fresh all time highs yesterday.

这尤其带动了欧洲市场的表现。

And that helped European markets in particular.

医疗股权重较高的瑞士SMI指数上涨了1%，跑赢了大多数地区。

The health care heavy Swiss SMI gained 1%, outperforming most regions.

欧洲斯托克600指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数都上涨了约0.5%。

The Euro Stox 600, Germany Stacks, and France's Caculovic all added around half a percent.

不过，亚洲交易时段，芯片股的压力又卷土重来了，对吧？

But the pressure on chipmakers intensified again in Asian trading overnight, didn't it?

是的，很遗憾，确实如此，露西娅。

Yeah, unfortunately, yes, Lucija.

SK海力士发布财报后，投资者继续抛售半导体股票，尽管其营业利润同比飙升了六倍多——也就是557%，营收也增长了257%，但这两项数据还是没能达到此前极高的预期。

Investors continued selling semiconductor shares after SK Hynix published results, although operating profits, soared more than sixfold, that's 557% if you prefer percentages from a year earlier, and sales jumped 257%, Both figures fell short of very elevated expectations.

股价一度下跌了17%，也就是百分之十七，继前一天两位数的跌幅之后又进一步承压。

The stock dropped as much as 17%, one seven, adding to a double digit decline the day before.

露西娅，自六月见顶以来，SK海力士的市值已经跌去了一半以上。

Since its June peak, Lucija, SK Hynix has now lost more than half its value.

这确实挺有意思的。

That's really interesting.

而且因为它在韩国市场举足轻重，根本无处可避，对吧？

And because of its importance to the Korean market, there is nowhere to hide, right?

没错。

Exactly.

今天早盘，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅超过10%，芯片股的疲软也拖累了日本日经指数，下跌了大约2%。

The KOSPI fell more than 10% this morning, and chip related weakness also pulled Japan's Nikkei down, roughly 2%.

不过目前亚洲大多数市场已经从低点回升，尤其是中国，股市上涨了大约1%。

But most markets in Asia are off their lows as we speak, And China is a standout with markets up roughly 1%.

明白了。

Alright.

简，接下来大家还是会紧盯财报数据。

And, Jan, the focus will remain on earnings.

事实上，这可能是本季财报发布最密集的一周，共有177家标普500公司要公布业绩。

In fact, this is arguably the busiest week of the reporting season with a total of 177 S and P 500 companies due to report.

投资者特别关注微软、Meta和亚马逊这几家。

Investors are particularly focused on Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon.

下周SpaceX也将首次公布财报。

And SpaceX will also report earnings for the first time next week.

最近这家公司压力很大，不过昨天收盘时股价还是收涨的。

The company came under massive pressure lately, although the stock ended yesterday's trading in positive territory.

对。

Yes.

自上市以来，股价已经下跌了约20%，从上市后的高点算起更是跌了近50%。

The shares have now fallen roughly 20% from their IPO price and almost 50% from the post listing peak.

你说得对，昨天股价是收高了，但自上市以来，公司的市值已经蒸发了超过1.2万亿美元。

The stock closed higher yesterday, as you said, but more than 1,200,000,000,000 US dollars in market value has been wiped out since the IPO.

投资者正在关注即将到期的禁售期，这可能会大幅增加可交易的股票数量。

Investors are watching upcoming lockup expirations, which could significantly increase the number of tradable shares.

到下周四，就有超过9亿股可能进入流通，到年底，自由流通股预计将从目前的约6.4亿股增至53.3亿股。

More than 900,000,000 shares could become tradable already next Thursday, with the free float expected to increase from roughly 640,000,000 shares today to 5,330,000,000 by year end.

是的，这确实是个不小的数字。

Yeah, that is substantial indeed.

不过，简，并不是所有企业的消息都这么悲观。

However, Jan, not every corporate story was negative.

当然不是，露琪娅。

No, certainly not, Lucija.

可口可乐在公布好于预期的业绩并上调全年盈利预期后，股价上涨了5%以上。

Coca Cola rose more than 5% after reporting better than expected results and raising full year earnings outlook.

公司指出，各个地区的消费者需求依然强劲。

The company pointed to resilient consumer demand across all regions.

管理层还提到了世界杯，你大概还记得国际足联在世界杯上推出的补水暂停机制，这为Powerade等品牌带来了更多曝光，助力了销售。

Management also highlighted the FIFA World Cup, where hydration breaks, you probably remember that invention by the FIFA in the World Cup, provided additional visibility for brands such as Powerade and helped support sales.

明白了。

Okay.

我们转到大宗商品和债券吧，简。

Let's move to commodities and bonds, Jan.

油价在传出伊朗、沙特和阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡展开对话的消息后大幅下跌，市场担忧因此缓解。

Oil prices fell sharply after news about discussions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman regarding the Strait Of Hormuz helped ease concerns.

你能详细说说这个情况吗？

Can you tell us more about this?

当然可以。

Sure.

WTI原油价格下跌了约4%，跌至每桶80美元以下。

So, WTI fell around 4% to below $80 per barrel.

油价下跌也带动了各地区债券收益率走低。

Lower oil prices also contributed to falling bond yields across regions.

不过，美国中央司令部报告拦截了伊朗的弹道导弹后，油价隔夜大幅上涨。

However, oil prices jumped overnight after US Central Command reported the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles.

所以中东局势依然很脆弱。

So it remains a fragile situation in The Middle East.

但这并没有给黄金带来多少利好。

But that's not really benefiting gold.

昨天交易中，黄金价格有所下跌。

The precious metal moved lower in yesterday's trading.

是的。

Yes.

黄金跌幅超过1%。

Gold fell more than 1%.

美元走强，加上市场对今天晚些时候美联储利率决议的谨慎情绪，给黄金带来了压力。

A stronger US dollar and caution ahead of the Fed rate decision later today put pressure on the metal.

白银、铂金和钯金也出现了下跌。

Silver, platinum, and palladium also declined.

但对黄金来说，4000美元至少目前还是一个坚实的支撑位。

But for gold, $4,000 seems to be a solid support at least for now.

你刚才提到了。

So you mentioned it.

今天晚些时候的美联储会议显然是当前最重要的宏观经济事件。

The Fed meeting later today is clearly the main macroeconomic event.

我稍后会和达里奥聊聊市场预期。

I will talk with Dario about expectations in a minute.

不过在你走之前，简，投资者今天还在关注什么？

But before you go, Jan, what else are investors watching today?

毫无疑问，美联储的决定，没错。

Without question, the Fed, yes.

然后微软和Meta将在美国收盘后公布财报。

Then Microsoft and Meta will report results after US close.

所以焦点还是放在财报上。

So the focus remains on earnings.

微软、空客和高通也会发布业绩，当然还有很多其他公司。

MS, Airbus and Qualcomm will also report and many more, of course.

哦，我刚看到瑞银第二季度利润飙升了17%。

Oh, and I just see UBS booked a 17% jump in second quarter profits.

这个数字超过了预期。

That's above expectations.

他们还宣布了30亿美元的股票回购计划。

And they announced a 3,000,000,000 US dollar share buyback program.

今天的信息量已经足够丰富了。

So enough news for a busy day.

那我们就先说到这里，卢吉娅。

And with that, back to you, Lucija.

好的。

Great.

非常有趣。

Very interesting.

非常感谢你做这个全面的介绍。

Thank you very much for this nice overview.

谢谢你能来。

Thanks for having me.

每次都特别愉快。

Always a pleasure.

现在我们来看看今天晚些时候美联储的利率决定。

Now let's turn to the Fed's rate decision later today.

早上好，达里奥。

Good morning, Dario.

你好。

Hello.

早上好，卢贾。

Good morning, Lucija.

上周我们聊了欧洲央行，这周大家的目光都集中在美联储身上。

So last week, we talked about the ECB, and this week, all eyes are on the Fed.

在讨论你的预期之前，美联储目前面临的大环境是怎样的？

Before we discuss your expectations, what's the broader backdrop that the Fed is facing?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得在讨论会议之前，这一点非常关键。

I think that's that's quite a crucial bit here to look at before we go into the meeting.

我可以从两个方面来说明。

I will put it into two different dimensions.

一个是经济层面，另一个是市场层面。

So the kind of the economic perspective and then the market side.

从经济角度看，当前的背景依然是通胀担忧重新抬头，同时经济表现依然强劲。

On an economic perspective, the backdrop is basically a combination, again, of of these renewed inflation concerns and continued economic resilience.

至于通胀方面，主要是油价上涨的问题。

On the inflation side, well, it's it's about the higher oil price.

我们收到了一些好消息。

We got some good news.

上周末，简就提到过这一点。

We heard it before from Jan over the weekend.

但最近又传来一些坏消息。

Now again, some bad news more recently.

这本来就没打算一路顺遂，说实话，美联储也会考虑到这一点。

So, I mean, this was never meant to be a a smooth process, unfortunately, and I think this is also one element that the Fed will be taking up.

与此同时，美国劳动力市场依然表现强劲。

At the same time, we also have The US labor market that continues to show remarkable strength.

看看最近公布的失业救济申请数据，已经跌到了极低水平。

Just look at jobless claims that we got recently falling to very quite or falling to very low levels.

这就是经济状况。

So that's the economy.

非常稳健，表现不错。

Quite resilient, quite well.

情况不错，基础稳固，从通胀角度看，美联储肯定也不想放弃这种鹰派立场。

It's quite good, on a good footing, and and and definitely something where the Fed doesn't want to give up on on the hawkish tilt also from the inflation angle.

对我来说，更有趣的是今晚决议前市场预期的背景。

I think what's more interesting, at least for me, it's the backdrop in terms of market expectations going into this evening's decision.

所以，市场认为加息的可能性现在已经降到30%了。

So the change that the the possibility or the likelihood for a hike according to markets is now 30%.

这说明市场还很犹豫。

That's a very undecided market.

如果你还记得，这正是美联储新主席沃尔什想要的局面。

If you remember, that's exactly what what the Fed chair, the new Fed chair, Walsh, wanted.

更多讨论，少点前瞻指引，结果就是最后更容易出现意外。

More debate, less forward guidance, and with that, more surprises at the end.

所以眼下这场会议相当有变数。

So we are having here a pretty live meeting at this point in time.

有意思。

Interesting.

那你觉得今天会怎样，达里奥？

And what do you expect from today, Dario?

从我们机构的整体观点来看，我们倾向于按兵不动。

Well, we, as a house view, we are in a in the camp of a hold.

我们认为，美联储更愿意先观望，看看最近的发展——包括能源价格上涨——如何影响通胀和经济活动。

We believe the Fed will prefer to wait and assess how recent developments, including also the higher energy prices, really flow through the inflation picture and the economic activity.

对我来说，感觉FOMC内部支持加息的声音还没形成共识。

For me, it also felt like the support among the FOMC for a hike is not fully here.

可能有些人已经准备好了，但还没到非得立刻行动不可的地步。

Probably some of them are ready for a hike, but not this kind of necessary mess to really go for it already.

最终，经济确实还算稳健，但劳动力市场也没那么紧张，反而趋于平衡。

At the end, yes, the economy remains resilient, but the labor market also doesn't look like very hot, rather balanced.

而且，幸运的是，上个月的CPI数据缓解了一些迫切采取行动的压力。

And, also, on top of this, the last CPI reading that we had luckily removed some of this urgency for action.

所以总的来说，目前我还没看到足够充分的理由来支持立即收紧政策。

So in summary, I don't see enough evidence at this stage at least to justify immediate policy tightening.

在这之后，或者过了明天，我们也认为美联储更应该继续保持观望。

And after that or beyond tomorrow, we also think that the Fed should rather stay on hold, actually.

明白了。

Okay.

如果您的判断是对的，这对投资意味着什么？

And what are the investment implications if you're right?

这其实很简单。

Well, that's quite simple.

我认为，如果美联储按兵不动，债券收益率应该会从当前水平小幅回落。

I think if the Fed stays on hold, bond yields should edge lower from current levels.

这对固定收益投资者来说无疑是个好消息，毕竟过去几周收益率已经涨了不少。

That would definitely be a welcome development for fixed income investors after the the rise in yields that we had over the last couple of weeks.

基于这个前提，不出所料，我们也不会调整现有的持仓，还是会继续保持固定收益组合中较长的久期。

And with that working assumption, unsurprisingly, we also wouldn't change anything on our positioning, and we'll definitely keep some old weight duration in in fixed income portfolios.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢你今天早上抽空参加我们的节目，达里奥。

Thanks a lot for being with us this morning, Dario.

谢谢你邀请我，卢贾。

Thank you for inviting me, Lucija.

先给大家剧透一下明天的节目，我们会深入分析美联储的利率决定。

And just as a quick sneak peek for tomorrow's show, we'll be taking a closer look at the Fed's rate decision.

记得明天继续收看。

So make sure to join us again.

接下来把时间交给马蒂厄。

And now over to you, Mathieu.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好，卢贾。

Good morning, Lucija.

现在我们已经进入第二季度的财报季了。

So we are now well into the second quarter earnings season.

到目前为止，你怎么评价这些业绩表现？

How would you assess the results so far?

总体来看，财报季表现非常强劲，尤其是在美国。

So overall, the earnings season has been very strong, particularly in The US.

目前大约三分之一的公司已经发布了财报，其中86%的公司盈利超过了预期。

So roughly one third of the companies have now reported and around 86% have beaten earnings expectations.

这明显高于76%的长期平均水平，说明企业盈利能力依然相当稳健。

That's well above the long term average of 76% and kind of indicates that corporate profitability remains quite resilient.

欧洲这边的财报季也表现稳健，整体与历史均值基本持平，特别是银行和半导体公司表现尤为突出。

Europe has also delivered a solid reporting season so far, broadly in line with historical averages and especially banks and semiconductor companies have been on the strong side there.

结合最新数据，市场普遍预期标普500指数在第二季度的盈利同比增长将达到38%。

So with the latest results in, consensus is looking now at 38% of earnings growth for the S and P for Q2 year over year.

乍一看，这个整体盈利增长数字显得格外亮眼。

And at first glance, this headline earnings growth number looks exceptionally strong.

但需要注意的是，这个数字受到了阿尔法贝特公司一次性投资重估收益的显著影响，这与其在私营企业中的持股有关。

However, it's important to recognize that the number is impacted by a large onetime investment revaluation gain at Alphabet, which is kind of related to its stake in private companies.

如果剔除这一影响，标普指数第二季度的调整后盈利增速实际上从约38%回落到了26%左右。

So if you exclude that effect, S and P funded earnings for the second quarter actually come down from the roughly 38% to around 26%.

但即便扣除这一一次性因素，这仍然是近年来最强劲的盈利季之一，凸显出企业基本面依然非常健康。

But even if you adjust that for this one off game, it remains one of the strongest earnings season we've seen in recent years, highlighting that the underlying corporate backdrop continues to be very healthy.

好的，尽管业绩表现强劲，但股价反应却相当平淡。

All right, and despite these strong results, share price reactions have been rather muted.

这是为什么呢？

Why is that?

这可能是本季盈利报告中最有趣的一个特点。

That's probably one of the most interesting features of this earning season.

虽然企业普遍交出了亮眼的业绩，但投资者在奖励它们时变得谨慎多了。

While companies have generally delivered strong results, investors have become much more selective in how they reward them.

过去，那些同时超出盈利和营收预期的公司，发布当天的股价通常会跑赢大盘约1.4个百分点。

So historically, companies beating both earnings and revenue expectations tend to outperform the market by around 1.4 percentage points on the day of the release.

但这一季度，这个数字已经降到了大约1.2个百分点。

But this quarter, that figure is closer to 1.2 percentage points.

另一方面，没达到预期的公司受到的惩罚也比往常更严厉，股价表现比大盘低了三个百分点以上。

And then on the other hand, companies missing expectations have been punished more severely than usual, underperforming by more than three percentage points.

所以市场反应变得越来越不对称了。

So the market reaction has become increasingly asymmetric.

好的业绩现在往往不足以带来明显上涨，因为预期本来就很高，尤其是在科技行业；但一旦表现不佳，就会遭到严厉打压。

So good results are often no longer enough to drive meaningful upside because expectations were already very high, particularly in the technology sector, but disappointments continue to be penalized heavily.

这说明投资者对企业的基本面依然看好，但对估值和未来增长的期望也变得苛刻多了。

That really tells us that investors remain constructive on the fundamentals, but they are also becoming much more demanding when it comes to valuations and future growth expectations.

马蒂厄，这一季财报期间，投资者最关注的是什么？

And Mathieu, what has been the main focus for investors during this earnings season?

毫无疑问，投资者最关注的还是大型超大规模云服务商和他们的AI投资计划。

So without question, the biggest focus remains the large hyperscalers and the AI investment plans.

投资者一直在追问两个关键问题。

Investors continue to ask two key questions.

第一，微软、Meta、亚马逊和谷歌这些公司还会在AI基础设施上投入多少？

First, how much more will companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet invest in AI infrastructure?

其次，我们是否已经开始看到明确迹象，表明这些巨额投资能带来可观的回报？

And secondly, are we starting to see clear evidence that these massive investments can generate attractive returns?

这就形成了一种微妙的平衡。

And that creates a kind of delicate balancing act.

一方面，持续的资本支出对整个AI生态系统有利，因为它推动了半导体、网络设备和数据中心基础设施的需求。

On one hand, continued capital spending is positive for the broader AI ecosystem because it supports demand across semiconductors, network equipment, and and also data center infrastructure.

但另一方面，更高的支出也给这些超大规模云服务商的自由现金流带来了压力。

Then the other hand, even higher spending also puts pressure on free cash flow of those hyperscaler companies.

许多投资者越来越希望看到这些投资最终能实现盈利的证据。

Many investors increasingly want proof that these investments can eventually be monetized.

Alphabet 在这里就是一个很好的例子，展现了这种动态。

And Alphabet provides quite a good example here of this dynamic.

该公司公布了强劲的云业务业绩，并上调了资本支出指引。

The company reported very solid cloud results and raised its capital expenditure guidance.

但如果你看股价，它还是下跌了，因为投资者更关注支出增加，而不是基本面的改善。

Yet if you look at the share price, it still declined because investors focus more on the higher spending than on the stronger fundamentals.

AI投资回报这个问题，依然是本季财报的核心主题。

This question around AI returns remains the key theme of the reporting season.

明白了。

Okay.

展望未来，投资者接下来几天最该关注什么？

Looking ahead, what should investors pay most attention to over the coming days?

本季财报最关键的一周，其实就是这一周。

The biggest week of this earnings season is actually the current week, this week.

好几家对市场影响最大的公司，都将在这一周公布业绩。

So we have several of the market's most influential biggest companies reporting results.

比如微软和Meta周三发布财报，苹果和亚马逊则安排在周四。

For example, Microsoft and Meta are due to report results on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

这正是美国科技巨头们最受关注的焦点。

And this is what would really the focus for the big tech companies in The US.

这些公司的报告，应该能让我们更清楚地看到，AI投资周期接下来会往哪个方向走，以及它们的支出计划是继续加速还是开始放缓。

So together, this company should provide a much clearer picture of where the AI investment cycle is heading and also where their spending plans continue to accelerate or slow down from here.

太好了。

Super.

非常感谢您今天做客我们的节目，马蒂厄。

Thanks a lot for coming on to our show today, Mathieu.

谢谢您，露吉娅。

Thank you, Lucija.

总是很愉快。

Always a pleasure.

所以

So

那今天就到这里了。

that is all for today then.

再次感谢我的嘉宾，也感谢各位的收听。

Thanks again to my guests, and thank you all for tuning in.

请明天继续收听，我们会带来更多影响市场的新闻。

Please join us again tomorrow when we will be back with more news moving the markets.

大家今天过得愉快，我们先到这里了。

Have a great day, everyone, and bye for now.

本播客中表达的信息和观点属于营销材料，并非独立的金融或投资研究结果。

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

如需了解更多重要的法律信息，请访问 www.juliusbair.com/legal/podcasts。

Please refer to www.juliusbair.com/legal/podcasts for further other important legal information.