Cooler US inflation data boosts markets

大家早上好，欢迎收听嘉能可移动市场播客。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets Podcast.

今天是7月15日，星期三，我是露琪娅·察库洛维奇。

It is Wednesday, July 15, and my name is Lucija Caculovic.

今天由我来担任主持人。

I am your host today.

昨天市场可是发生了不少大事。

So yesterday brought plenty of market moving news.

我们刚收到了最新的美国通胀数据，同时主要的美国银行也正式拉开了财报季的序幕。

We received fresh US inflation data, while the major US banks officially kicked off the earnings season.

接下来我会和贝娜黛特·安德科一起聊聊这些动态，她会带我们梳理最新的市场情况。

I'll be discussing all of that and more with Bernadette Anderko, who will take us through the latest market developments.

之后我们会邀请达里奥·梅西，带来固定收益市场的最新进展。

We will then be joined by Dario Messi for an update on fixed income markets.

最后，内纳德·迪尼克会做客节目，深入解读本季的财报表现。

And finally, Nenad Dinic will be on the show to delve deeper into the earnings season.

不过首先，Bernadette，早上好。

But first, Bernadette, good morning.

很高兴你今天能来。

Great to have you with us.

早上好，Lucija。

Good morning, Lucija.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

昨天，美国股市上涨了，因为公布的通胀数据低于预期，这让市场相信美联储今年可能不需要像之前担心的那样激进地加息。

So US equities rallied yesterday after a cooler than expected inflation report bolstered hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates as aggressively as had been feared this year.

你能给我们详细说说吗？

Can you fill us in on some of the details?

是的。

Yes.

六月份，美国消费者价格指数环比下降了0.4%，使年通胀率降至3.5%。

The US consumer price index fell 0.4 on the month in June, bringing the annual inflation rate to three and a half percent.

经济学家原本预计月度降幅只有0.2%，年通胀率会维持在3.8%。

Economists had expected only a 0.2 monthly decline and for annual inflation to come in at 3.8%.

你说得对，卢吉娅，这份报告确实让交易员们降低了对美联储短期内加息的预期。

And you're right, Lucija, that the report definitely prompted traders to scale back expectations for near term Fed tightening.

因此，央行七月加息的概率从周一的42%骤降至昨天的17%。

So the probability of a rate hike at the central bank's July meeting fell from 42 on Monday to just 17% yesterday.

不过市场仍预期今年晚些时候会加息，交易员们认为九月会议后利率上调25或50个基点的概率有63%。

Markets still pricing in an increase later this year with traders assigning a 63% probability rates will be a quarter or half a percentage point higher following the September meeting.

但要提醒一下，我们的经济学家并不认为美联储今年会加息。

But a reminder, our economists do not expect the Fed to hike this year.

半导体股票在周一暴跌后反弹，标普500指数收盘上涨，接近0.4%。

In the market, semiconductor stocks rebounded after Monday's sell off, and the S and P five hundred closed higher, up just shy of naught point 4%.

纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数则勉强收涨0.02%。

The Nasdaq Composite rose naught point 9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out a gain of naught point naught 2%.

IBM的股价拖累了该指数，下跌了25%。

Shares of IBM weighing heavily on that index with the stock down 25%.

这是自1987年以来该公司单日最大跌幅，此前该公司警告称，由于软件和基础设施业务需求疲软，第二季度利润将低于预期。

That's the biggest one day drop since 1987 after the company warned second quarter profits will be lower than expected due to soft demand in its software and infrastructure businesses.

昨天，油价从高位回落，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普放弃了要求船只通过霍尔木兹海峡时缴纳20%费用的主张。

Oil prices were off their highs yesterday after president Donald Trump abandoned his demand that ships must pay a 20% fee to move through the key strait Of Hormuz Waterway.

不过，由于美国对伊朗发动了新的空袭，当天油价仍保持上涨。

They did remain higher on the day as The US launched fresh strikes on Iran.

国际基准布伦特原油期货上涨1.7%，突破每桶84美元。

International benchmark Brent crude futures added 1.7%, to above $84 a barrel.

明白了。

Okay.

财报季开局强劲，也推动了股市上涨。

And the earnings season has gotten off to a solid start boosting equity gains too.

对吧？

Right?

确实如此。

Indeed.

是的

Yeah.

五大银行昨天公布财报时，全都超过了分析师的预期。

The big five banks all topped analysts' expectations when they reported results yesterday.

高盛带领银行股走强，其股价在业绩超预期后飙升了9%。

Goldman Sachs led a notable bank stocks higher that popped 9% after the bank posted an earnings beat.

摩根大通和美国银行等大型银行在公布财报后，股价也上涨了约2%。

And the big banks, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also saw gains in the region of 2% after their results.

好的

Okay.

那昨晚亚洲市场的情况如何？

And what's been the story in Asia overnight?

中国内地股市基本持平，尽管五月零售额意外增长了16%。

Well, shares in Mainland China were little changed after retail sales unexpectedly grew 16% drop in May.

工业产出也超出预期，增长了5.3%。

Industrial production beat forecasts to rise 5.3%.

此外，调查的城镇失业率从五月的5.1%下降到了5%。

And the surveyed urban jobless rate eased to 5% from 5.1% in May.

尽管如此，中国第二季度的GDP增速还是放缓到了4.3%。

Even so the country's GDP growth slowed coming in at 4.3% in the April to June period.

这比第一季度的5%有所回落。

That's down from 5% in the first quarter.

再来看看中国，AI领域的先驱公司DeepSeq已经开始筹备首次公开募股。

Staying with China a minute, Chinese AI pioneer DeepSeq has begun preparations for an initial public offering.

它可能在今年就提交申请，为中国的科技行业带来一次具有里程碑意义的上市。

It may file as soon as this year, setting the stage for what could be a landmark debut for the country's technology industry.

MSCI亚太地区股票指数昨晚上涨了2%，其中科技股表现尤为突出。

MSCI's Asia Pacific equities gauge climbed 2% overnight with technology shares among the best performers.

韩国Kospi指数飙升了7%，重新夺回今年全球表现最佳主要股指的头衔。

South Korea's Kospi jumped 7%, regaining the top spot as the world's best performing major stock market benchmark this year.

此外，SK海力士的股价昨晚在亚洲市场上涨了11%。

And SK Hynix shares rose 11% in Asia overnight.

隔夜交易中，彭博美元指数继续下跌，而美国国债收益率在周二大幅下挫后趋于平稳。

Also in the overnight session, a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar extended its losses while US Treasury steadied after Tuesday's rally sent yields sharply lower.

这显然反映出交易员正在平仓，不再押注美联储会在本月就启动加息。

This is obviously as traders were unwinding bets that the Fed would begin raising interest rates as soon as this month.

隔夜，日本和澳大利亚的国债价格也都出现了上涨。

And we saw sovereign debt gaining in Japan and Australia overnight.

当天晚些时候，科技板块进一步走强，因为荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦当天早些时候宣布，预计全年销售额将在430亿至450亿欧元之间。

And the tech sector got a further lift later in the session after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML this morning announced that it expects full year sales to be between 43 and €45,000,000,000.

这一数字远超此前预期，反映出客户们仍在持续扩大人工智能芯片的产能。

That's significantly up from previous guidance with its customers continuing to ramp up production capacity of AI chips.

那我们接着聊聊欧洲吧。

Let's stick with Europe then.

在欧洲这边，昨天的市场有哪些地方吸引了你的注意？

What caught your eye in yesterday's session on this side of the pond?

昨天欧洲股市整体收高，不过中东局势紧张以及原油价格高企，多少限制了涨幅。

European shares ended higher yesterday, although Middle East tensions and elevated crude oil prices did somewhat keep a lid on the gains.

泛欧斯托克600指数最终收涨0.2%，收复了盘中一度高达0.9%的跌幅。

The pan European STOXX 600 index closed 0.2% higher, recovering losses from earlier in the session of as much as 0.9%.

交易员们目前认为，欧洲央行最早可能在九月加息，因为通胀压力依然存在。

Traders currently see the European Central Bank hiking rates as early as September amid lingering inflation concerns.

我刚才提到了美国银行，所以也得说一下，欧洲银行昨天整体持平，金融服务业则上涨了1.2%，露西娅。

I talked about US banks earlier, so I should also mention European banks ended 0% higher on the day and financial services climbed 1.2% yesterday, Lucija.

好的，贝纳黛特。

Okay, Bernadette.

当然，我们得聊聊新任美联储主席凯文·沃尔什，对吧？

And of course, we need to talk about the new Fed chairman, Kevin Walsh, don't we?

他昨天在国会听证会上发表了讲话。

He delivered comments to a congressional panel yesterday.

是的。

Yes.

他进一步强化了近期关于通胀的强硬立场，同时强调了美国经济的韧性，以及企业投资——尤其是人工智能领域——带来的积极影响。

And he ramped up his recent tough talk on inflation while also touting the strength of The US economy and the benefits coming from business investment, particularly involving artificial intelligence.

他称通胀是一种不公平的负担，并再次呼吁对美国央行进行根本性改革。

He called inflation an unfair burden, and he reiterated his call for regime change at the US Central Bank.

他特别提到了自己组建的五个专项小组，全面审查美联储的运作方式，并表示将在货币政策的五个方面推行改革，以彻底扭转过去五年通胀飙升的局面。

He highlighted these five task forces that he's created to look at all aspects of how the Fed conducts its business and has said that reforms are going to be put in place across five dimensions in monetary policy in order to make the inflation surge of the last five years be a thing of the past.

在你走之前，伯纳黛特，今天还有什么值得关注的重点吗？

Now before I let you go, Bernadette, what should we be looking out for in the day ahead?

今天财报发布依然很密集。

Well, we've got another busy day of earnings.

联合航空、摩根士丹利、强生和贝莱德等公司都将公布业绩。

We've got United Airlines, Morgan Stanley, Johnson and Johnson, and BlackRock amongst others set to report.

我们还会再次听到美联储主席沃尔什的发言。

We'll be hearing from Fed chair Walsh again.

加拿大央行将公布最新政策决定，美联储也将发布褐皮书。

Bank of Canada announcing its latest policy decision, the Fed is going to be releasing the beige book.

今日还将公布6月美国PPI通胀数据和7月纽约州制造业调查报告。

Data releases include US PPI inflation for June and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July.

目前期货市场预示着开盘将上涨。

And currently, futures are pointing to a positive open.

希望情况能继续保持下去，露琪娅。

So let's hope it stays that way, Lucija.

是的。

Yeah.

但愿如此。

Let's hope so.

非常感谢你提供这么全面的介绍，贝纳黛特。

So thank you very much for this nice overview, Bernadette.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

接下来我们转向固定收益市场。

Let's now turn to the world of fixed income.

早上好，达里奥。

Good morning, Dario.

早上好，露吉娅。

Good morning, Lucija.

我们刚刚看到最新的美国通胀数据低于预期。

So we've seen the latest US inflation data come in softer than expected.

你觉得最值得注意的是什么？

What stood out to you?

是的。

Yeah.

正如我们刚才听到的，六月份美国通胀下降幅度超出预期，这对市场来说显然是个积极信号。

I mean, as we already just heard, US inflation declined more than expected in June, which is at the end clearly encouraging for markets.

我认为一个关键因素是汽油价格明显大幅下跌，这有效拉低了整体通胀水平。

A key driver, I think, really was this obvious sharp fall in gasoline prices, which helped to bring overall inflation lower.

但这一点其实很明显。

But this was kind of clear.

对吧？

Right?

与此同时，对我来说更重要的是，服务业通胀，包括住房相关部分，也明显放缓了。

So at the same time, and for me much more important, service inflation, including also housing related components, they also slowed quite noticeable.

这一点尤其关键，因为服务业通胀一直是通胀整体走势中更顽固的部分，也通常让政策制定者更头疼。

And that's particularly important because service inflation has been one of these stickier parts of the whole inflation story and also one that typically varies policymakers much more.

因此，整体核心通胀率随之下降了。

So overall, core inflation moved lower as a result.

总的来说，趋势显然是朝着正确方向走的。

At the end, definitely moving in the right direction.

但同时，就像沃尔什昨天说的，一个月的数据不能说明趋势，这仅仅是一份报告而已。

At the same time, and this is something that even Walsh said yesterday, one month never makes a trend, so this is kind of just one report.

不过它仍然传递了一个信号，对短期货币政策前景无疑是有帮助的。

But still, it sends a signal and is certainly helpful for a short term monetary policy outlook.

这一点在市场中也很明显，我们之前已经看到定价反应了。

That's also quite visible in market as we heard before in the pricing there.

现在要指望七月就降息，门槛已经高得多了。

A much higher bar now for a step already in July.

所以，美联储这边还有点时间可以慢慢斟酌。

So, basically, a bit more time to think about for the Fed.

明白了。

Alright.

说到这个，你觉得美联储现在会怎么应对？

And talking of which, how do you see the Fed reacting now?

嗯，这份报告确实不错，但他也说了，情况还没定。

Well, again, I mean, it's a a good report, but stated it.

他短期内大概还是会保持这种偏紧的语气。

He would probably keep this hawkish tone for the moment.

这毕竟只是单月的数据。

It was just one reading.

通胀确实在下降，但还是高于美联储的目标，政策制定者们得确保这种改善是持久的，才不会轻易说胜利在望。

Inflation is falling, but still above the Fed's target, and and policymakers will want to make sure that progress is durable before declaring any victory here.

我觉得这在当前这个阶段，其实是很自然的。

I think this is just natural specifically at this point in time.

所以我预计，他们的措辞仍会聚焦于物价稳定。

So I would expect the rhetoric to to remain focused on price stability.

到目前为止，我们听到的也是这一点，就是要确保通胀预期牢牢锚定。

This is what we hear so far also, really making sure that inflation expectations stay well anchored.

这一点在他们的证词里也说得非常清楚。

And that's really also what we heard in the testimony.

不过，正如伯纳黛特之前提到的，我们这边的经济学家并不预期加息，所以目前没有加息的打算。

That said, we, as Bernadette mentioned also before, in our books, our economists, they don't go for a hike, so we have no hike there.

主要原因在于，工资和劳动力市场传导的二次效应存在滞后，这一点非常关键，有助于我们保持现状。

And that's mostly because there seems to be, and that's important, a lag of second round effects through the wage channel, through labor market, and that's very helpful to to remain put.

换句话说，在我们看来，美联储在沟通上会继续保持强硬，但政策利率仍将维持不变。

So in other words, the Fed will remain hawkish in communication while still keeping policy rates unchanged in our view.

所以债券市场的头寸也不会有变化，我猜是这样？

So no change for bond market positioning, I assume?

没错。

Exactly.

这没什么意外的。

No surprise here.

从投资组合的角度来看，没必要做任何调整。

No need to change anything from a portfolio perspective.

我们依然认为这里很有优势，正在逐步增加久期敞口。

We really continue to see the merits here and gradually adding duration exposure.

非常有意思。

Very interesting.

感谢你今天早上抽空参加我们的讨论，达里奥。

Thanks a lot for being with us this morning, Dario.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

卢吉亚。

Lucija.

接下来交给您了，内纳德。

And now over to you, Nenad.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好，露琪娅。

Good morning, Lucija.

我们刚刚听伯纳黛特提到，昨天美国主要银行集中发布了财报。

So we've heard from Bernadette that yesterday we've seen a wave of earnings reports from major US banks.

总体来看，您怎么评价整个银行业的表现？

Overall, how would you characterize the results of the sector?

是的。

Yes.

总的来说，昨天所有华尔街银行公布的季度业绩都出奇地好。

So generally, it's been a remarkably positive quarter for US banks across all reporting Wall Street banks yesterday.

每股收益和营收都大幅超出市场预期，整体趋势也印证了我们对这一行业的积极看法。

We saw EPS and revenue did beat consensus estimates by a wide margin, and the general development also supports our constructive outlook for the sector.

我们观察到的第一个趋势是，投行部门表现特别强劲，尤其是股票交易业务，多家银行创下了历史最高纪录。交易量激增主要受地缘政治引发的市场波动、人工智能股票大幅波动，以及过去一个季度大量IPO上市推动，这些都带来了强劲的客户活动。

So, the first theme that we're seeing is that they have seen a particular strength in the Investment Banking division, particularly within the equities trading business, where multiple banks actually posted all time records, and these higher trading volumes were strongly driven by the elevated market volatility from geopolitics, but also from the major moves in AI stocks and also the IPO listings over the past quarter which basically generated a strong client activity.

第二个趋势是，信贷和贷款增长依然强劲，而且还在加速。

Then for the second theme, we've also seen resilient credit and loan growth acceleration.

消费者和企业信贷质量同比都有提升，违约和逾期贷款数量也在下降。

So consumer and commercial credit quality improved year over year, and we have seen that charge offs and delinquencies were declining.

这可是个很强的信号，尤其是结合本季度贷款增速比上季度更快，整体反映出经济信心正在回暖。

So this is a very strong signal, especially in combination with loan growth accelerating this quarter compared to the previous quarter and generally signals an improving economic confidence.

我们观察到的最后一个趋势，是这些银行资本实力的进一步确认。

And then the last theme that we have observed is the confirmation of the capital strength of these banks.

这为它们最近宣布的大规模股东回报计划提供了支撑。

So basically, this enables the large shareholder payouts that they have announced recently.

监管资本比率远高于最低要求，总体来看，我们认为，行业范围内股息上调、数百亿美元的股票回购计划，以及资产负债表的持续扩张，都将得益于这份资本实力的确认。

So the regulatory capital ratios held comfortably above the minimums required, and in general, we would believe that the sector wide unlocking of dividend increases, multibillion buyback programs, and also the ongoing balance sheet growth will be supported from this confirmation in capital strength.

明白了。

Okay.

欧洲的财报季也在慢慢升温，这周已经有几家公司率先公布了业绩。

And the earnings season in Europe is also picking up slowly with some early reporters this week.

你能给我们做个大致的概述，再讲讲几个重点行业吗？

Could you give us a broad overview and some sector highlights?

当然可以。

Yes.

欧洲第二季度的盈利增长数据非常亮眼，同比接近12%，这是三年来首次实现两位数的每股收益增长。

So the headline number for q two earnings growth in Europe looks very promising with around 12% year on year, and this is actually the first double digit EPS growth in three years for Europe.

不过，这其中很大一部分来自石油和天然气行业。

However, a large part is coming from the oil and gas sector.

如果把这一块剔除掉，实际的内生增长就温和多了，只有4.5%。

So, if we strip the sector away, the underlying growth actually looks more modest with just 4.5%.

但与此同时，周期性行业的复苏仍在持续。

Nevertheless, we are seeing a continuation of the recovery in cyclical sectors.

比如汽车行业就是一个很好的例子。

Automotive, for example, is a very good example.

这是自2023年以来首次出现正增长，相当令人鼓舞。

It is showing positive growth for the first time since 2023, which is quite encouraging.

此外，工业板块表现也很强劲，实现了两位数的每股收益增长。

Also, industrials are performing well with double digit EPS growth.

另一个积极信号是，整体来看，盈利预期正在向上修正。

And another positive aspect is that earnings revisions are trending upwards on aggregate.

即使剔除石油和天然气板块，全年每股收益的预测值依然高于战前水平。

So even if we exclude the oil and gas sector, full year EPS growth estimates remain actually above prewar levels.

过去两个月里，分析师上调评级的数量已经超过了下调的数量。

And over the past two months, we are seeing analyst upgrades outpacing downgrades.

但在过去两年的大部分时间里，情况恰恰相反。

And for much of the past two years, it's actually been the opposite.

欧洲盈利季最后一个值得注意的点是，从第二季度开始，欧洲斯托克600指数与标普500之间的盈利差距预计会收窄，到第四季度甚至可能完全弥合。

And the last important observation for the European earnings season is maybe that the earnings gap between the stock 600 and the S and P 500 is expected to narrow from q two onwards and potentially even close by q four.

总体而言，我们并不认为即将到来的欧洲盈利季本身就能成为支撑强烈看涨欧洲观点的强劲催化剂，尤其是中东局势再度紧张之际。

So overall, we don't believe that this upcoming earnings season in Europe will on its own provide a strong catalyst to justify a high conviction bullish view on Europe, particularly with the tension in The Middle East flaring up again.

布伦特原油价格又回到了每桶80美元以上，但我们仍保持谨慎乐观，认为一些支撑因素可能推动投资者逐步从过于集中的美国持仓中撤离，转向更分散的区域资产，比如欧洲，或者过去一年半表现落后的其他板块。

Brent crude is again trading above $80, but we are cautiously optimistic, and we see some supporting drivers that may underpin a broadening thesis in where investors may be continue to rotate away from crowded US positioning into more regional diversified equities, whether that's Europe or or other sectors that have been underperforming the past one and a half years.

但这需要欧洲周期性行业强劲指引的确认，以及欧洲目前所面临的滞胀压力进一步缓解。

But, this would require a confirmation of the strong guidance, in the cyclical sectors in Europe and also a more easing of the stagflationary pressure we have seen in Europe so far.

太好了。

Super.

非常感谢您今天做客我们的节目，内纳德。

Thanks a lot for coming on to our show today, Nenad.

谢谢你的邀请，卢贾。

Thanks for having me, Lucija.

那今天就到这里了。

So that is all for today then.

再次感谢我的嘉宾，也感谢各位的收听。

Thanks again to my guests, and thank you all for tuning in.

欢迎明天继续收听，我们会带来最新影响市场的消息。

Please join us again tomorrow when we will be back with more news moving the markets.

祝大家今天愉快，我们下次再见。

Have a great day, everyone, and bye for now.