Hot US inflation, AI under pressure and iron ore's price divide

大家早上好，欢迎收听瑞士宝盛的《市场动态》播客。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets podcast.

今天是10月15日，星期四，我是海伦·弗里尔。

It's Thursday, October 15, and my name is Helen Freer.

今天早上我的第一位嘉宾是迈克·劳伯，他将为我们带来金融市场的最新消息汇总。

My first guest this morning is Mike Rauber, and he'll be giving us a roundup of the latest news in financial markets.

另外，今天我也很高兴邀请到卡斯滕·门克来到节目，稍后我会请他谈谈对铁矿石的最新看法。

And then I'm delighted to also have Carsten Menke on the show today as well, and I'll be getting his latest thoughts this morning on iron ore.

那就在几分钟之后。

That's in just a few minutes.

但首先，由迈克带来市场新闻。

But first up with the market news, it is Mike.

早上好，迈克。

Good morning, Mike.

感谢你参加我们的节目。

Thanks for joining me.

早上好，海伦。

Good morning, Helen.

那我们聊聊昨天市场的关键动态吧。

Let's talk about the key market action yesterday then.

美国通胀数据高于预期，市场对此做出了反应。

US inflation came in higher than expected, and markets reacted to this.

具体发生了什么，迈克？

So what happened, Mike?

海伦，正如你所说，九月份美国通胀数据高于预期。

September US inflation came in above expectations, as you said, Helen.

没错，这主要是能源价格上涨推动的。

Sure, it was driven by higher energy prices.

整体通胀率目前是3.7%。

The headline inflation rate sits at 3.7.

这是年化数据。

That's the annual rate.

但核心通胀，也就是剔除食品和能源价格后的通胀，也上升到了2.6%。

But core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, also rose to 2.6%.

这比预期的要高。

That was higher than anticipated.

这种顽固的通胀让交易员提高了对美联储加息的预期，明年三月前两次加息的可能性已经被充分定价。

Now, this sticky inflation meant traders raise the probability of a Fed rate hike with two hikes by March next year firmly priced in.

所以现在大家会非常关注美联储的表态。

So there will be now plenty of focus on Fed shares.

凯文·摩尔预计明天，也就是周五，在曼谷发表讲话。

Kevin Moore's expected remarks tomorrow, Friday, in Bangkok.

好的。

Okay.

回到市场行情。

And back to the market action.

我看到国债收益率经历了一次过山车式的波动。

I saw treasury yields had quite a rollercoaster ride.

美国的通胀报告一开始让国债收益率飙升。

The US inflation report initially sent treasury yields soaring.

我们来看看两年期国债收益率。

Let's take the two year yield.

它一度跳涨了14个基点，触及4.94%。

It briefly jumped 14 basis points, touching 4.94%.

但随后科技股的大规模抛售很快占据了主导，把投资者又推回了美国国债这个避险资产。

But then a broad tech sell off soon took over, driving investors back into safe haven US treasuries.

所以这意味着两年期收益率收盘时持平。

So this meant the two year yield finished the day flat.

今天早上在亚洲，我看到它又下跌了7个基点，到了4.72%。

And this morning in Asia, I'm seeing it down another seven basis points to 4.72%.

说到科技股抛售，主要股指表现如何？

And speaking of the tech sell off, how did the major equity indices perform?

以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌了近2%，标普500指数下跌了1.1%，两者都创下了自7月以来的最大单日跌幅。

The tech heavy NASDAQ Composites slid nearly 2% and the S and P five hundred dropped 1.1%, both logging their biggest one day decline since July.

小盘股罗素两千指数下跌了1.3%。

The small cap Russell two thousand slid 1.3%.

这意味着它从高点下跌了11%，进入了回调区间。

That means it's down 11% from its peak, entering correction territory.

不过，你知道吗，海伦，昨天标普五百指数的市场压力总体上是均衡的。

But you know, Helen, market press in the S and P five hundred was broadly balanced yesterday.

防御性板块，比如必需消费品、烟草和医疗保健，都上涨了。

Defensives like consumer staples, tobacco and healthcare rose.

就拿礼来来说，它上涨了近4%。

Take Eli Lilly, it was up nearly 4%.

我们再多聊聊昨天AI交易的平仓情况吧。

Let's talk a bit more about the AI trade unwinding yesterday.

有没有哪些具体的公司成为焦点？

Were there specific companies in the spotlight?

这次抛售是由AI基础设施供应商领跌的，也就是所谓的“新云”，比如Nebios和CoreWeave，它们向AI开发者出租计算能力。

The sell off was led by AI infrastructure providers, the so called neo cloud such as Nebios and CoreWeave, which rent computing power to AI developers.

投资者越来越担心他们扩张所用的债务。

Investors are increasingly concerned about the debt used to finance their expansion.

Core Weave的股价一度下跌了17%。

Core Weave's share fell as much as 17%.

信贷市场现在预计未来五年内违约的可能性为50%。

Credit markets are now pricing in a 50% chance of a default in the next five years.

Core Weave四个月前发行的2032年债券跌至面值的78美分以下，连埃隆·马斯克都在X上评论说“哎呀”。

Core Weave's 2,032 bond issued only four months ago fell to below 78¢ on the dollar, prompting even Elon Musk to comment yikes on X.

是的。

Yes.

那真是情绪的巨大转变。

That was quite a massive shift in sentiment.

AI方面有什么好消息吗？

Was there any positive news on the AI front?

Tropic告诉投资者，他们现金流为正，盈利，第三季度营收增长了近50%，达到168亿美元。

And Tropic told investors that it's cash flow positive, profitable, and that third quarter revenue jumped nearly 50% to $16,800,000,000.

不过，这还是在算力价格战的情况下取得的。

Now that's even as there's a price war for compute.

但值得注意的是，这种快速增长比年初那种迅猛的势头要慢一些。

But it is worth noting that this rapid growth is slower than the blistering pace set earlier in the year.

说到财报季，美国主要银行的表现怎么样？

And moving to the earnings season, how did the major US banks fare?

业绩参差不齐。

Results were mixed.

摩根士丹利超出预期，得益于强劲的股票交易和创纪录的财富管理资金流入，但固定收益交易疲软拖累了股价。

Morgan Stanley beat expectations supported by strong equity trading and record wealth management inflows, but weaker fixed income trading weighed on the shares.

美国银行，即使不计入12亿美元的罚款，营收和盈利也都未达预期。

Bank of America, they missed both revenue and earnings forecasts, even excluding a $1,200,000,000 fine.

当天股价下跌了5%。

Its shares were down 5% on the day.

所以大型银行的疲软持续了第二天，但好消息是，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德交出了强劲的成绩单。

So weakness in major banks continued for a second day, but on the positive, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager posted strong results.

它的股价上涨了将近1%。

Its shares rose nearly 1%.

再看欧洲股市，今天早上期货跟随华尔街走低，但昨天股市表现不错，上涨了大约0.5%。

And on European equity markets, futures are in the red this morning following Wall Street, but stocks held up well yesterday, up about half a percent.

迈克，这方面你能给我们讲讲吗？

What can you tell us here, Mike?

欧洲大多数指数收盘时都处于上涨区间，尽管国际能源署警告说，由于全球供应紧张可能持续到2027年，柴油价格可能会上涨。

Most indices in Europe ended in positive territory even as the International Energy Agency warned diesel prices could rise as the global crunch lasts into 2027.

瑞士的SMI指数表现突出，上涨了1.5%。

The Swiss SMI outperformed, rising 1.5%.

其中医疗保健板块占比超过40%，所以昨天该板块的强势确实起到了很大的推动作用。

You know, it is over 40% in healthcare, so strength in the sector yesterday truly helped.

而意大利是个例外，下跌了0.6%。

While Italy was the exception, down 0.6%.

ASML的业绩也给欧洲股市带来了支撑。

ASML results also provided support to European equities.

欧洲市值最大的公司公布了创纪录的季度营收后，股价上涨了超过1%。

The continent's biggest company by market cap gained over 1% after reporting record quarterly revenues.

由于通胀高企，美联储可能再次加息，我们看到了货币和大宗商品的显著波动。

With inflation running hot and the Fed potentially hiking again, we saw notable moves in currencies and commodities.

贵金属价格下跌，美元上涨。

Precious metals dropped and the US dollar rose.

具体细节是怎样的？

What were the details here?

黄金下跌了1%，白银暴跌了6%，而美元则走强。

So gold fell 1%, silver plunged 6%, while the US dollar strengthened.

欧元兑美元一度达到1.1120，这是今年美元对欧元的最强水平。

Euro US dollar at 1.1120 at one point marks the dollar's strongest level against the euro this year.

不过，今天早上有趣的是，部分走势正在逆转，贵金属价格回升，美元走弱。

This morning, however, interestingly, some of those moves are reversing with precious metals firmer and the dollar weaker.

所以，尽管面临阻力，黄金的表现仍然相对坚挺。

So gold continues to hold up relatively well considering the headwinds.

那今天早上亚洲股市表现怎么样？

And in Asian equities this morning, how are they doing?

你提到了避险情绪。

You mentioned the risk off tone.

MSCI亚太指数下跌了近3%，可能创下7月以来的最低收盘点位。

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down nearly 3%, heading for its lowest close since July.

韩国综合股价指数作为AI交易的晴雨表，下跌了多达8%，一度触发短暂停牌，芯片巨头三星电子和SK海力士的跌幅都达到或超过10%。

South Korea's COSPI, a bellwether for the AI trade, is down as much as 8%, triggering a brief trading halt with chip heavyweight Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both thinking back 10% or more.

这是本周这两只股票第二次大幅下跌。

That's the second time this week these two shares are sharply down.

日本股市也因AI相关股票走弱而下跌。

Japan is following with AI weakness.

日经225指数，我上次看的时候，下跌了5%，尽管核心机械订单数据其实相当不错。

The Nikkei two twenty five index, when I last looked, was down 5% despite core machinery order numbers actually being quite good.

中国股市下跌了1%到2%。

And China is down between 12%.

好的。

Alright.

最后再问一下，今天有什么值得关注的事情？

And just finally then, what's coming up today?

在欧洲这边，英国八月份的数据刚刚公布，从我看到的情况来看，大部分都好于预期。

So in Europe, UK figures for August were just released, mostly better than expected, what I could see.

稍后，瑞士的生产者价格和进口价格数据会提供新的通胀信号。

Later on, Swiss producer and import prices will offer fresh inflation signals.

昨天美国CPI数据偏热，所以今天公布的PPI肯定会受到关注，同时美国零售销售数据也能让我们了解美国消费者的消费实力。

After yesterday's hot US CPI, today's producer price inflation will be for sure in focus, but also US retail sales will offer insights into the strength of The US consumer.

财报方面，法国公司道达尔能源刚刚在整点发布了财报，我快速看了一眼。

And in earnings, the French company Total Energy, I just quickly saw they released at the top of the hour.

从目前看到的情况来看，业绩表现相当强劲。

It looks like a strong set of figure of what I could gauge.

晚些时候，美国这边嘉信理财也会公布财报，不过这只是众多发布财报的公司中的几家而已。

And later in The US, Charles Schwab will report, but that is just a few of the many names reporting.

我这边就这些了。

And that's all for me.

非常好。

Very good.

非常感谢你，迈克。

Thank you very much, Mike.

今天能再次和你聊，真是太好了。

Great to speak to you again today.

谢谢你今天邀请我，海伦。

Thank you very much for having me today, Helen.

现在把时间交给卡斯滕。

And now over to you, Carsten.

欢迎来到播客。

Welcome to the podcast.

早上好。

Good morning.

你好，海伦。

Hello, Helen.

早上好。

Good morning.

今天我们聊的是铁矿石，这个话题已经有一阵子没怎么被关注了。

And we're talking about iron ore today, which hasn't really been in focus for a while.

对。

No.

确实是这样。

That's absolutely true.

铁矿石基本上没怎么受到今年影响市场的主要因素波及，比如中东战争或者AI基础设施的扩张。

Iron ore has largely been unaffected by the major themes driving markets this year, such as the war in the Middle East or the AI infrastructure expansion.

相比之下，它当然和中国钢铁行业关系非常密切，而钢铁行业因为国内建筑业的疲软，日子不太好过。

In contrast, of course, it is very much exposed to China's steel industry, which is having a tough time due to the weakness in domestic construction.

然而，今年早些时候，价格还是涨到了每吨110美元以上。

And yet, prices rallied to more than a $110 per ton earlier in the year.

是的。

Yes.

这波上涨确实出乎意料。

That rally was very much unexpected.

我觉得主要是因为中国铁矿石进口量出人意料地强劲。

I think it was due to surprisingly strong Chinese iron ore imports.

其中很大一部分被囤积起来，还有一些弥补了国内矿山产量的下降。

Much of this was stockpiled, while some of it offset weaker domestic mine production.

所以，我觉得总得有个说法，而到现在，铁矿石价格已经从高点下跌了大约20%，并且有跌破每吨90美元的风险。

So, I think something had to give, and by now, iron ore prices are down around 20% from their peak, and they are at risk of breaking below $90 per ton.

那么，中国钢铁行业的基本面到底有多疲软呢？

So how weak is the backdrop for steel in China?

嗯，我觉得首先得说，中国的钢铁产量占全球总产量的一半以上。

Well, I think, firstly, we have to say that China's steel production accounts for more than half of global output.

所以他们在铁矿石市场中也扮演着举足轻重的角色。

So they play an outsized role in the iron ore market as well.

不过，今年以来，中国的钢铁产量已经降到了2018年以来的最低水平。

Year to date, Chinese steel production is, however, down to the lowest levels since 2018.

在消费方面，尽管我们看到房地产建设多年来一直在下滑，但建筑和基础设施仍然占国内钢铁消费的50%以上。

In terms of consumption, buildings and infrastructure still account for more than 50% of domestic steel consumption despite this multi year decline in property construction, which we've seen.

另外35%到40%用于制造业，比如汽车、卡车和其他机械设备，剩下的约10%用于出口。

Another thirty five to forty percent is used in manufacturing for autos, trucks, and other kinds of machinery, and the remainder, which is around 10%, is exported.

所以，如果没有出口，中国的产量还会更低。

So production in China would even be lower if not for exports.

而且，年化产量超过1.1亿吨，这比大多数国家全年的产量还要多。

And the annualized run rate, which is more than 110,000,000 tons, is more than most other countries produce in a year.

这个观点很有意思。

That's a very interesting point.

钢铁难道不是保护主义最严重的市场之一吗？

Isn't steel one of the most protectionist markets?

是的，确实如此。

Yes, it is.

所以这些出口……

So these exports...

中国的出口主要流向邻近的亚洲国家，这些国家仍然相对开放，愿意与中国进行贸易。

China's exports are primarily reaching neighboring Asian countries, which are still comparably open to trading with China.

但在那里，这当然正在挤占当地的国内钢铁生产。

But there, it is crowding out domestic steel production now, of course.

尽管如此，保护主义措施仍在增加，导致全球钢铁价格出现分化。

That said, protectionist measures remain on the rise, resulting in globally dispersed steel prices.

例如，基准产品热轧卷板在美国的售价约为每吨1250美元，在欧洲为每吨830美元，在日本为每吨550美元，而在中国仅为每吨490美元。

For example, hot rolled coil, a benchmark product, is trading at around $1,250 per ton in The US, $830 per ton in Europe, $550 per ton in Japan, and only $490 per ton in China.

所以美国和欧洲的价格受到贸易壁垒的严重扭曲，而我认为日本的价格最接近自由市场价格。

So prices in The US and Europe are heavily distorted by trade barriers, and Japan, I would say, is closest to a free market price.

所以同样的钢材在美国的价格是日本的两倍多。

So the same steel costs more than twice as much in The US than it does in Japan.

是的。

Yes.

这很大程度上要归功于特朗普总统的50%进口关税。

And that's largely thanks to president Trump's 50% import tariffs.

卡斯滕，你觉得钢铁市场接下来会怎么发展？

How do you see the steel market evolving from here, Carsten?

嗯，我觉得结构性失衡还会持续下去，中国出口过剩和贸易壁垒增加是主要和次要的表现。

Well, I would say that structural imbalances are set to persist with China's outsized exports and increasing trade barriers as the primary and secondary symptoms of that.

我们预计全球钢铁产量会趋于平稳，印度的增长会抵消中国的疲软。

We project a plateau in global steel production with strength in India offsetting weakness in China.

另外，生产正在从高炉转向电弧炉，这会减少对铁矿石的需求。

Furthermore, production is increasingly shifting from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, which reduces the demand for iron ore.

那这对铁矿石意味着什么呢？

And what does this mean for iron ore then?

海运铁矿石供应可能已经见顶，这会拉大高品位低成本生产商和低品位高成本生产商之间的差距。

Seaborne iron ore supplies have likely peaked, driving greater differentiation between high grade low cost and low grade high cost producers.

价格会保持在低位，主要受每吨八九十美元的生产成本支撑。

Prices are set to stay low, anchored by production costs in the high eighties and low nineties per ton.

我们现在就处于这个位置，所以价格已经回到了合理的水平。

This is where we are now, so prices are back to fair levels.

而且，取决于中国交易商的支付意愿，以及可能对金属密集型刺激措施的投机，价格可能会高达每吨110美元，但那时很可能就是上限了。

And depending on the Chinese traders' willingness to pay and, say, potential speculation about metals intensive stimulus measures in the country, prices could reach as high as a $110 per ton, but that's where they are very likely to top out then.

这种价格飙升很可能非常短暂，因为海运市场供应仍然充足，而且中国钢铁行业的盈利能力受限。

Such spikes are very likely very short lived amid still sufficient supplies in the seaborne market and the constrained profitability of China's steel industry.

非常好。

Very good.

谢谢你，卡斯滕。

Thank you, Carsten.

和你聊天总是很愉快。

Really good to speak to you as always.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

再见。

Bye bye.

那今天的内容就到这里。

So that is all for today.

再次感谢今天早上的各位嘉宾，也感谢大家的收听。

Thank you again to my guests this morning, and thank you all for tuning in.

如果你喜欢我们的节目，请订阅，当然也可以在你喜欢的任何平台上给我们留下评论。

Please subscribe to our show if you enjoy it, and you can, of course, also leave us a review on whichever platform you like to listen on.

明天早上请继续收听，我会和更多同事一起，为大家解读市场动态。

Do join us again tomorrow morning when I will be back joined by more of my colleagues to talk us through what is moving markets.

在那之前，祝大家今天过得愉快，我们下次再见。

But until then, have a great day everybody, and bye for now.

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The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

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