超越视野：央行对能源危机的应对

大家好，欢迎收听本期《视野之外》，这是一档深入探讨投资者关注话题的播客系列。

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this edition of The View Beyond, a series of podcasts in which we delve a little deeper into the topics on investors' minds.

中东局势持续占据新闻头条，导致风险偏好出现明显脆弱性。

The situation in The Middle East continues to dominate headlines, creating palpable fragility in risk appetite.

我们看到市场将这一局势解读为既是一种通胀推动力，又是一种对潜在经济增长的拖累。

We're seeing markets interpreting the situation as both an inflationary impulse and a drag on potential economic growth.

在这一切发生的同时，央行们正在经历一个超级周，G10国家中有八家的政策委员会召开了会议。

And amidst all of this, central banks have been meeting in a super week with eight of the G10's policy committees meeting.

他们做出了什么决定？

What have they decided?

他们下一步可能走向何方？

Where are they likely to go next?

这对全球债券市场的投资者意味着什么？

And what might this mean for investors in the world's bond markets?

现在是3月19日，星期四。

Well, it's Thursday, March 19.

我是伯纳黛特·安德科，今天上午11点在这里与瑞银集团固定收益研究主管达里奥·梅西对话，来解答这些问题。

My name is Bernadette Anderko, and I'm sitting here at 11:00 in the morning with Julius Baer's Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, to answer these questions.

早上好，达里奥。

Good morning to you, Dario.

你好，伯纳黛特，早上好。

Hello, good morning, Bernadette.

在我们深入今天的主要话题——即央行和债券市场的未来走向之前，我们先快速回顾一下本周央行的行动吧。

Before we go into the bigger topic of today, which is, of course, central banks and bond markets going forwards, why don't we quickly recap this week's central bank action?

我们刚刚刚刚公布了日本央行和瑞士国家银行的决议。

We've literally just had the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank decisions.

今天下午晚些时候，我们将迎来欧洲央行的决定。

Later this afternoon, we'll have the European Central Bank.

但首先，达里奥，让我们先回溯到昨天，当时美国联邦储备系统公布了决议，你觉得如何？

But but first, Dario, let's just rewind to yesterday, shall we, when we had the decision from the US Federal Reserve.

你从中得出哪些主要结论？

What are your takeaways there?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是，正如大家普遍预期的那样，昨天政策利率并没有任何调整。

And I mean, there I mean, first, as really broadly expected here, we didn't really have a change in in in policy rates yesterday.

市场上所有人都在寻找指引。

And everyone in the market was really looking for guidance.

那么，我们未来应该期待什么？

And so what should we expect going forward?

在这方面，我必须说，我们听到美联储主席鲍威尔明确承认，战争已经改变了局面。

In that regard, I have to say what we heard is a is a clear acknowledgment from from chair Powell that things have changed with the war.

我们基本上听到的是现在采取观望态度，因为我们面临的是双重目标两侧的风险。

And what we basically hear is really this kind of wait and see approach now, because what we have is risks on both side of the dual mandate that they have.

别忘了，美联储的双重目标是经济增长和通胀。

Remember, the Fed has a dual mandate, growth and inflation.

鲍威尔明确告诉我们，目前两侧都存在风险，尤其是通胀方面，由于战争的影响更加明显。

And and Powell basically clearly told us we have risks on both sides now, and obviously on the inflation side, even more with the war.

当你看美联储自身的预测时，他们通常会以季度方式向我们提供对未来走势的预期。

When you look at the Fed outlook itself, so they also always give us in a quarterly manner what they expect going forward there.

他们仍然预计今年剩余时间会降息一次。

They still have one cut from here for the rest of the year.

但目前这非常不确定。

But certainly, this is very uncertain at the moment.

我认为，从鲍威尔的讲话中，另一个非常明显且关键的结论是，我们可能完全不降息的风险已经上升。

I think also very obvious and also very key takeaway from when you listen to Powell that the the risk that we might get actually no rate cut going forward have increased.

而这在很大程度上也取决于中东局势的发展变化。

And it pretty much also depends on how the developments are are evolving in The Middle East.

好的。

Okay.

今天瑞士国家银行的情况，你最初的判断是什么？

And the Swiss National Bank today, your first take there.

那我们该如何看待今天晚些时候欧洲央行的举动呢？

And and how should we also think about the European Central Bank later today?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为关于瑞士国家银行，也许他们的首次行动，嗯，我们刚刚才经历过。

I I think on the SMB, maybe their first, well, just we just had them.

他们显然没有任何动力做出任何反应。

They have clearly no incentive to react in any way.

事实上，他们也有自己的条件性通胀预测。

In fact, they have also their conditional inflation forecast.

他们看到的是，目前短期通胀确实会暂时升高，但明年通胀会下降。

And and what they see is, yes, temporary higher inflation now short term, but then lower inflation for next year.

鉴于我们目前看到的瑞士法郎走势，他们也因此极为谨慎。

And with that, they're also extremely cautious given the Swiss franc dynamics that we are seeing now.

所以我认为，他们在这里不太可能以任何显著方式调整政策利率。

So I think here, quite confident that they will not shift policy rate in a very meaningful way here.

关于欧洲央行，我的意思是，在这段录音中，我们刚刚处于这次会议之前。

On the ECB, I mean, here in the recording, we we are just ahead of this meeting.

我必须说，这次会议可能是本周最值得关注的一次。

And I have to say, this time around, this is probably the most interesting meeting of of this week.

这将是一次非常有趣的会议。

It will be a very interesting one.

在这次会议之前，我们看到了极为明显的鹰派转向。

We we had extremely pronounced hawkish shift ahead of this meeting.

市场对此也做出了强烈反应。

Markets also really reacted to it.

因此，我们从原本的宽松预期转向了今年欧洲央行的加息预期。

So from an easing bias, we went into hikes this year for the ECB.

所以我认为，这绝对是一个非常值得关注的时刻。

And so I think here, definitely a very interesting one to watch.

好的。

Alright.

如果我们退一步看，年初时我们预计美国政策利率将呈下行趋势，欧洲央行也可能进一步降息。

Then if we take a step back, at the start of the year, we were expecting a downward trajectory in US policy rates and some possibilities of the ECB cutting further.

那么现在这一切都被彻底打乱了吗？

Has this been totally derailed now then?

我的意思是，看看市场，确实有很多预期已经被重新定价了。

I mean, you look at markets, certainly a lot here has been priced back.

这些地缘政治发展，我们最初看到的其实是主导市场的通胀叙事。

These geopolitical developments, what we saw first is really this inflationary narrative that was the dominant driver.

同时，我认为更广泛地说，我们现在面临的是一个供给冲击。

At the same time, I think more broadly, what what we have now is really a supply driven shock.

这意味着，通常来说，我们正经历由成本推动带来的更高通胀，同时增长前景也更黯淡。

So it's typically, what it means is we have higher inflation through a cost push shock, at the same time, a lower growth outlook.

通常情况下，如果仅从现代货币政策的教科书角度来看，央行应该选择忽视这种冲击。

And what this normally means, so if you just look at modern monetary policy textbook style, that central banks should actually rather look through.

你说通常央行应该忽视，但现在不是这样。

You say typically central bankers should look through, but not now.

是的

Yeah.

这可能是问题所在，这也可能是为什么市场对短期政策利率预期进行了如此剧烈重新定价的原因。

This is probably the issue, this is also probably why we had this quite aggressive repricing on the front end or at at the policy rate outlook from markets.

现在，中央银行要这样做可能要困难得多。

It's much harder probably for the central banks to do so now.

我的意思是，我们可能需要考虑过去几年发生的事情的先后顺序。

I mean, we what what we probably need to take into account here is the sequence also what happened over the last couple of years.

所以在经历了我们刚刚提到的这些通胀时期之后，你可能不能再简单地说这只是暂时的。

So after these inflationary periods that that we just had, you can probably not just come here and say, this is just transitory.

我不会做出反应。

I don't react.

我的意思是，'暂时性'这个词在过去几年里已经让央行官员付出了代价，即使对他们来说这仍然是供给驱动的，他们可能也不愿再使用这个词。

I mean, this word transitory was already one that was very penalized for central bankers over the last couple of years, and they probably don't want to do this even if it's for them still supply driven.

因此，他们需要表现出强硬的态度。

And so what they need is they really need to sound hawkish.

从这个角度来看，另一个非常重要的观察点是，中央银行与经济互动的方式更多地体现在周期性层面。

And from that perspective, what's very important to look at as well is if you think about central banks, they have their way of interacting with the economy is more the cyclical part.

但对此至关重要的是，要确保长期通胀预期的锚定保持稳定。

But very important for this is to have the inflation anchor for long term inflation expectations really stable.

一旦这一点受到质疑，中央银行就会进入全面的风险管理模式，不再过多关注增长前景，而是更强调必须释放鹰派信号，以防止这一锚定消失。

The moment that this is put in question, the central banks go in full risk management mode, and they really look much less in terms of what's the growth outlook, but much more kind of we need to sound hawkish so that this anchor doesn't disappear.

因为一旦我们失去了通胀预期的锚定，货币政策无论如何都将失效。

Because the moment we don't have this inflation expectations anchor, monetary policy anyway doesn't work anymore.

这正是货币政策有效运作的核心支柱。

This is a core pillar of of monetary policy to really work.

所以我认为，目前我们看到的是，央行暂时转向极度谨慎的态度，通过保持鹰派语气，确保这一通胀锚定不被破坏。

So I think here, what we see now for the time being is really this shift towards being very cautious, what they say, having this hawkish tone to really make sure that this inflation anchor is not jeopardised.

好的。

Okay.

所以你说他们需要释放鹰派信号，但你的意思是，最终你并不真的预期他们会大幅加息？

So you said they need to sound hawkish, but you mean at the end you don't actually expect them to really raise rates?

我的意思是，至少目前我们的基线预测是这样的，是的。

I mean, this is at least our baseline for the time being, yes.

但这也基于一个假设，即这次石油冲击虽然可能会持续更久一些，但还不至于长到严重影响今年下半年的货币政策。

But this also is based on the working assumption that we have that this oil shock, yes, might last a bit longer now, but not for as long that it really takes a major input for for monetary policy in the second half of this year.

在这里，我认为我们绝对不能忽视其他正在发生的动态。

And here, I think we we should also definitely not forget all the other dynamics that are going on.

我的意思是，回顾今年头两个月，我们看到的是，人们担心美国因人工智能的影响，劳动力市场可能会迅速降温。

I mean, when you think about the the first two months of this year, what we saw there is a lot of labor market fears that in The US, we might see a much faster cooling because of AI.

当时，我们确实进行了很多讨论，认为我们面临的是增长前景问题，可能需要宽松政策。

And there, we actually had a lot of discussions more into going we have a growth outlook problem, and we might need to have easing.

请记住，美联储在大多数标准或预测中，仍处于限制性立场。

And remember, the Fed is still, for most standards or estimates, still in in a restrictive stance.

所以我认为，总体而言，我们确实需要承认，战争让情况发生了变化。

So I think here, overall, I think, yes, we definitely need to acknowledge things change with the war.

这在很大程度上取决于这场石油冲击将持续多久，以及它将如何冲击市场。

It depends a lot on how this oil shock will last and and and rattle through the markets.

但我们核心的假设是，在下半年，我们可能仍会看到美联储的一些降息，以及欧洲央行无需加息、可以维持现状的情况。

But our core assumption is that in the second half, we might still see some cuts, for example, from the Fed and an ECB that doesn't need to hike, but can stay on hold.

好的。

Okay.

我们为什么不把这一点更广泛地延伸到债券市场呢，达里奥？

Why don't we translate this more broadly into bond markets now, Dario?

我们谈到了央行的政策反应，但长期债券收益率呢？

We talked about the Central Bank's policy reaction, but what about the longer term bond yields?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，到目前为止，我们看到的，首先可以回顾一下，实际上是一轮抛售。

I mean, so far, what we saw, maybe first to recap, is actually quite a sell off.

债券被抛售，收益率上升。

So bonds sold off with yields going higher.

包括我在内，战争初期并没有预料到会发展成这样。

And some and including me at the beginning of the war, they didn't I didn't expect it to to have this kind of development.

是的。

Yes.

虽然存在通胀叙事，但我原本认为也会有增长担忧和避险资金流入，这些因素应该会抑制影响。

There is the inflationary narrative, but I thought there will also be some growth concerns and the safe to haven flows that should here dampen the impact.

所以我也感到有点意外。

So I was also a bit surprised.

但我认为，如果我们真的持续看到央行的鹰派转向——不仅停留在言辞上，而且真正付诸行动，比如美联储不再降息，或欧洲央行开始加息，那么我们迄今为止看到的收益率上升走势，恐怕不会是持久的。

But I think at the same time, if we really continue to see this hawkish shift of central banks, not just in rhetoric, but also materializing, so if they really start for the Fed not cutting or the for the for the ECB hiking, I don't think so that the move that we saw so far, so yields going higher, should really be a lasting one.

我认为，这里的信号其实是央行再次进入了风险管理模式，专注于对抗通胀，即使通常它们本应像我们之前讨论的那样，对通胀采取容忍态度，而这将牺牲增长前景。

I think here, what the signal would be is really central banks are again in in risk management mode, in inflation fighting, even if typically they would need to look through as we discussed before, and end this at the cost of the growth outlook.

我认为，在这种环境下，我有很强的信念：长期收益率最终会停止上升，甚至在某个时点再次回落。

And I think here I have quite a strong conviction that in such an environment, longer term yields would would actually stop going higher or even fall again at some point.

好的，那么在所有这些背景之下，您会给试图应对这一动荡环境的固定收益投资者什么建议？

Alright, so then with all of this as a background area, what advice would you offer to fixed income investors trying to navigate this turbulent environment?

是的，说到底，当前的环境显然非常复杂。

Yeah, look, mean, at the end, it's obviously a very tricky landscape.

我们不知道这些地缘政治事态将如何发展，而这对于任何策略都至关重要。

We don't know how these geopolitical developments will evolve from here, and this is very crucial for any kind of strategy.

我认为，就目前而言，我们确信的一点是，在考虑久期敞口时，我们不会卖出。

I think what we do now at this point in time and where I would say we we have part of our conviction is when you think about your duration exposure, we would not sell it.

事实上，如果你还没有配置，我们建议在当前环境下适当增加投资组合中的久期超配。

In fact, if you don't have it yet, some slight overweight duration in your portfolios, we would actually use this environment at the moment to to increase that one.

通常来说，我们现在更青睐收益率曲线中五到十年的中期部分。

And by that, we typically have now the five to ten year intermediate part of the curve, which we like.

我认为，是的，目前的势头对此不利。

And I think here, yes, the momentum is against this.

我们看到收益率正在上升。

We have yields going up.

因此，这一部分收益率曲线也显示出一些疲软。

So this part of the curve is also showing some weakness.

但到了某个时点，我们确实认为会出现一个转折点。

But at some point, we really think that there will be a turning point.

而且在两种情况下，无论中东局势迅速缓和，还是通胀叙事和风险溢价都会回落。

And and with that, I mean, in both scenarios, either we have the developments in The Middle East calming quickly, then the whole narrative on inflation and this premium will come back down.

因此，收益率会下降。

So we have yields coming lower.

或者央行继续表现出如此强硬的立场，导致长期收益率实际上下降。

Or central banks will continue to sound so hawkish that we actually have longer end yields coming lower.

这就形成了收益率曲线的这种扭曲。

So this kind of twist in the curve.

即使短期利率上升，长期收益率也应下降。

So even if short end rates go higher, long term yields should come down.

而这时，你正好能从曲线的这一中间部分获利。

And then you profit exactly or benefit exactly with this intermediate part of the curve.

非常好。

Excellent.

信息非常清晰。

Very clear message.

非常感谢您今天加入我的节目，达里奥。

Thank you very much for joining me today, Dario.

这是一个非常有趣的话题，我相信我们很快就会再次讨论它。

It's a really interesting topic, and I'm very sure we'll be revisiting it pretty soon.

当然。

Sure.

一如既往，谢谢您的邀请。

Thank you for inviting me, as always.

这也就结束了今天《视野之外》播客的全部内容。

So that brings us to the end of today's View Beyond podcast.

再次感谢达里奥，也感谢您的收听。

Thanks again to Dario, and thank you for listening.

请持续关注每日动态，收听我们的《市场动态》播客，并下周再次收听《视野之外》，我们将带来更深入的探讨。

Do keep up to date with what's happening on a daily basis by tuning in to our Moving Markets podcast, and join us again for a deep dive next week when we'll be back again with The View Beyond.

本播客中表达的信息和观点属于营销材料，并非独立金融或投资研究的结果。

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

如需了解更多重要的法律信息，请访问 www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts。

Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for further other important legal information.