超越视野：中国2026年的反弹是否重现2015年？

大家好。

Hello, everyone.

欢迎收听珠宝熊播客。

Welcome to the Jewelers' Bear podcast.

我是唐理德，中国策略师兼珠宝熊银行香港研究主管。

This is Richard Tang, the China strategist and head of research Hong Kong for Bank Jewelers' Bear.

我们刚进入2026年新年，很高兴再次邀请哈尔与我们讨论中国市场的前景。

We just got into the New Year, 2026, and it's great to have Hal with us again to discuss the outlook for the Chinese market.

哈尔是一位著名的经济学家，同时也是莲花资产管理公司的管理合伙人兼首席投资官。

Hal is a renowned economist, and he's also the managing partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management.

嗨，理德。

Hi, Hal.

非常感谢你今天抽出时间与我们交谈。

Thank you very much for your time speaking with us today.

嘿，理德。

Hey, Richard.

新年快乐。

Happy New Year.

哈尔，在我们深入讨论中国市场之前，我们先聊聊美国总统唐纳德·特朗普最近的举动。

Hal, before we dive into the China market, let's first talk about the recent moves of The US President Donald Trump.

我觉得他最近的一些举措相当大胆。

He's been making some pretty bold moves lately, I would say.

正如我们所知，他的决定往往对世界上许多国家产生重大影响。

And as we know, his decisions tend to really have a lot of influence on many countries in the world.

而现在，围绕格陵兰的问题，他突然威胁要对欧盟国家加征新关税。

And now with this whole Greenland situation, he's suddenly threatening to slap new tariffs on the EU countries.

他甚至提到了对法国香槟征收200%的关税。

And he even mentioned the 200 tariff on French champagne.

所以关键问题是，我们该如何看待这一切？

So the big question is, how should we look at all this?

这仅仅是特朗普谈判策略的一个例子——他总是先施加最大压力来达成目标，然后再做出一些让步？还是你觉得这次的情况有点不一样？

Is it just an example of the Trump's negotiation tactics, which is first, he always started with maximum pressure to get what he wants, and then there may be some concessions in between, or does it feel a little bit different to you this time?

我觉得这次真的不一样。

I think it's quite different this time.

显然，格陵兰资源丰富，尤其是稀土，还有一些未来人工智能发展可能需要的其他能源。

Obviously, Greenland is rich in resource, especially in rare earths and also in some other forms of additional energy that is probably required for AI development in the future.

所以我认为美国非常认真地想要夺取格陵兰领土。

So I think The US is very serious about snatching the Greenland territory.

斯科特·贝松在市场上的信誉非常好。

Scott Besson, he has a very good credibility with the market.

他真的出来表示：天啊。

He actually come out and say, wow.

我们认真考虑购买格陵兰，并使其成为美国领土的一部分。

We're serious about buying greenerness and become part of The US territory.

所以我认为，现在特朗普想做什么越来越清晰了，因为去年他通过对欧洲贸易伙伴征收高额关税来施压，把初始价格抬得很高。

So I think right now what Trump is trying to do is becoming clearer because last year imposing exorbitant tariff on European trading partners to shake them up so that he raised the initial price very high.

因此，随着谈判的进行，他会不断提出更多要求。

So then as the negotiation goes on, he will raise more and more demands.

但这个要求似乎比原价稍微好一点。

But then this demand seems to be a little bit better than the original price.

因此，在谈判过程中，你会先提出很高的要求，然后逐步给出相对较低的价格。

And therefore, in a negotiation process, you aim very high but then offer a relatively low price as you go on.

这往往会让交易更容易达成。

It tends to make the deal easier to be agreed.

所以我认为，由于格陵兰与美国之间有着悠久而复杂的关系，我认为这并不是美国第一次试图从丹麦手中夺取格陵兰。

So I think right now, because there's a very long history of The Greenland and the complicated relationship of Greenland and The US, so I would say that this is not the first time The US trying to snatch Greenland from Denmark.

希望这也不是最后一次。

And let's hope that is not the last time.

所以基本上意味着，美国这次不会成功侵犯其他主权领土。

So basically means The US won't be successful this time to infringe on other sovereign territory.

这些评论确实非常有趣。

These are very interesting comments indeed.

而目前，当我们与投资者交谈时，发现他们的意见非常分歧。

And right now, as we speak to investors, it looks like the opinions are very divergent.

在嘉能可银行，我们倾向于认为，特朗普在中期选举年提高关税是一个棘手的时刻，因为我们的观察显示，他的支持率实际上一直在下滑，而其中一个明显的原因是他至今未能解决美国民众高昂的生活成本问题。

At Julius Baer, we tend to think that this is a tricky moment for Trump to raise tariffs especially in the midterm election year because we note that his approval ratings actually have been sliding and one of this reason is clearly that so far he has failed to solve the problem of high living costs for the Americans.

那么，他为何要加征关税，让价格变得更高呢？

So why would he want to impose tariffs to make the prices even higher?

但当然，也有一些投资者告诉我们完全相反的观点，他们认为这次整个问题非常严重。

But, of course, there are also investors who are telling us the completely opposite that they think this time the entire issue is serious.

无论如何，如果我们超越政治来看，我认为对投资者而言，更重要的问题是：这将如何影响全球资产？

In any case, if we look beyond the politics, I think for investors, the more important question, how does that affect global assets?

因为从过去几天的市场动向来看，黄金价格显然已经飙升，一些分析师认为，这可能会进一步强化这种贵金属的上涨势头，同时可能进一步削弱美元。

Because as we can see from the past few days of actions, definitely, the gold prices have gone through the roof and some analysts think that it could strengthen the momentum for this shiny metal even more and at the same time, it could further weaken the dollar.

你同意这种观点吗？

How would you agree to that view?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，作为投资者，我们可能更关心市场将如何对这种不确定性进行定价。

Well, I think, you know, as investors, we are probably more interested in how the market is going to price in this kind of uncertainties.

我认为，无论特朗普是否成功，推动向更绿色领域的延伸，对贵金属价格和基础金属价格都有好处。

I think in my view, no matter Trump is successful or not, stretching the greener territory, I think it's still beneficial to the precious metals price and also the furious metals price.

原因在于，即使他不成功，人们也知道他早已规划好了下一步行动。

The reason being if he's not successful, but then people know that he's gonna have next step planned already.

他知道这是一步非常冒险的举措，同时也在冒险破坏美国与欧洲之间长达百年以上的联系。

He knows that this is a very risky move and then also he's risking the lines between US and Europe and the lines that is more than a 100 years old.

他正在玩一场高风险的游戏。

He's playing a very high stake game.

我认为，如果他不成功，他会计划其他手段，试图获取他所需的资源。

And I think if he's not successful, then he will plan other things, trying to get the resources that he needs.

这就是他战略的核心。

So this is the core of his strategy.

所以，如果他得不到格陵兰，他就会从其他地方下手。

So if he doesn't get it from Greenland, he's gonna get it from somewhere else.

如果美国未能从丹麦手中获取格陵兰，那么不确定性将进一步加剧，因为他正在筹划下一步行动，但没人知道他口袋里还有什么牌。

Now if The US is not successful snaring Greenland from Denmark, then uncertainties would actually increase further from here because he's planning the next move, but nobody knows what he has in his pocket.

在这种情况下，这对贵金属和其他金属来说更是刺激。

In that case then, it's even more stimulating for precious metals and other metals.

现在，如果他成功获得了他想要的一切资源和矿物，那么他很可能会遭到欧洲伙伴的强烈反击。

Now if he is successful getting what he wants and getting all the resources and minerals, now the thing is that he probably would encounter very strong counteroffense from the European partners.

所以，我认为欧洲各国，相关国家已经在联合起来，考虑应对特朗普威胁的方法。

So already, I think the European countries, relevant countries actually grouping together, thinking of ways to deal with Trump's threat.

例如，他们正在考虑抛售美元资产，这些资产由欧洲机构持有，总额高达一万亿美元或更多。

For example, they're thinking of dumping the US dollar assets and all that, which amount to 10,000,000,000,000 US dollars or more being held in European institutions.

如果是这样，那你想象一下。

So if that's the case, then just imagine.

对吧？

Right?

因此，金融市场将陷入混乱，不确定性将急剧上升，贵金属价格也会随之飙升。

So there will be chaos in financial markets and therefore uncertainties will surge and and therefore precious metals price will surge as well.

所以我认为，无论从哪个角度来看，这都对贵金属有利，这也是为什么我们最近看到黄金、白银和其他贵金属出现史诗级上涨的原因。

So I think whichever scenario you look at, I think it's just beneficiary to precious metal and that's the reason why we're seeing gold and silver and other precious metals having epic run-in recent days.

现在关于美元，我想我们之前也已经向客户分享过这一点。

Now I think as regard to the US dollar, I think we had already shared as well with our clients.

目前，我们认为美元已经进入了美元周期的贬值阶段。

Now basically, we think the US dollar has entered a depreciation phase of the US dollar cycle.

美元周期大约持续十七年。

The US dollar cycle lasts for about seventeen years.

在这十七年中，前十年左右美元汇率会上升，而后十年则会下降。

Now in the seventeen years, the first ten years or so, the US dollar exchange rate rise up and then the last ten years it comes down.

所以我认为，美国实际上正开始进入美元周期的贬值阶段。

So I think, you know, The US is actually sort of starting the depreciating phase of the US cycle.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是十七年周期的最后七年。

So the last seven years of the seventeen year cycle.

因此，我认为更有可能的是，美元将继续下跌。

So I think more likely than not, we're gonna see US dollar continue to decline.

现在具体来看，昨晚的交易情况，美国科技股在盘中下跌超过2%，几乎抹去了今年年初以来的所有涨幅。

Now, specifically, if you look at the trading situation last night, The US tech stocks tanked more than 2% last night in the day, basically wiped out all the gains that they was able to make since beginning of the year.

即便如此，你仍看到美国长期债券走强，美元也进一步走弱。

So even so, you're seeing long bond US actually surging and also the US dollar weakened as well.

因此，昨晚所有美元资产都在被抛售。

So you're seeing all the US dollar assets being sold off last night.

这意味着投资者将美元资产视为投资组合中的风险，并将继续推进去美元化过程，将部分美元资产重新配置到世界其他地区。

Now what that means is that investors are seeing US dollar assets as a risk in their portfolio, and they're gonna continue to do this dedollarization process and reallocate some of the dollar assessed money into other parts of the world.

例如，新兴市场一直表现良好。

For example, emerging market has been performing well.

欧洲市场其实并不疲软，今年贵金属和原材料的表现也极为出色。

European is actually not weak and also precious metal and the materials are doing exceedingly well this year.

而且，尽管去年遭遇了严重抛售，但如今在亚洲市场，包括中国大陆和香港，股市表现相当坚韧。

And also, like, despite a very severe sell off last year, today in Asia market, in Mainland Asia and also in Hong Kong, stocks has been quite resilient.

我们开盘时走低，但很快逆转了所有跌幅，目前实际上已经转涨。

We opened lower, but then quickly we reversed all the losses, and now we're actually up.

对吧？

Right?

这意味着资金正开始从美国市场流出，转向亚洲，特别是与中国相关的资产。

So what that means is that you're seeing money starting to rotate out of The US market and go into Asia, in particular Chinese related assets.

我认为，这一过程很可能在今年余下的时间里持续下去。

And I think, you know, this process will likely to continue for the rest of the year.

哈尔，你提到一个非常有趣的观点，即传统上，当美国市场下跌时，通常会对亚洲交易时段的亚洲市场产生负面连锁影响。

Hal, you mentioned something really interesting, which is that traditionally when The US market went down, usually, it will have a negative ripple effect into the Asian hours of Asian markets.

但正如你所说，这次中国市场非常坚韧，我不禁想到，中国市场可能实际上是资金从美国市场重新配置的受益者，当投资者寻找新的资金存放地时，中国可能会从中获益。

But as you mentioned, this time, the Chinese market is very resilient, so I just can't help by thinking that the Chinese market may be actually a beneficiary of market being reallocated out of The US and as they find destination to park the money, China may benefit from that.

但显然，中国也有自己的立场和关注重点。

But, obviously, China has its own arguments and has its own focus.

如果我们回到中国本身，我认为可以说，在去年经历了一段短暂的盘整后，如今A股和港股又开始上涨了。

If we come back to China itself, I think it's fair to say that after some short period of consolidation last year, we're now seeing both A shares and Hong Kong stocks going up again.

而且这一次很明显，A股表现稍强一些，我们还看到了不同投资主题之间的轮动。

And this time, it's very clear that A shares are a little bit stronger, and we're also seeing some rotations of different investment themes.

我认为两周前在香港和上海，我们曾讨论过今年年初表现不错的商用航空领域。

I think two weeks ago in Hong Kong and Shanghai, we discussed the commercial aerospace in the beginning of this year which had done pretty well.

我们还注意到，几个中国终端市场的指标正在回升。

We also note that several Chinese end market indicators are picking up.

例如，市场成交额和融资融券余额都显著上升，或许正因如此，监管机构最近采取了一些措施，包括提高融资融券要求。

For example, the market turnover and the margin financing balances have both increased meaningfully and maybe because of that, regulators have recently taken some action including raising the margin financing requirements.

所以我想问你，我们该如何看待这些举措？因为你也记得，十年前的2015年市场崩盘，也是从收紧融资融券开始的。

So here is my question to you how should we be worried about these moves because you may also recall that the market crash in 2015, which is ten years ago, also began with the tightening of margin financing.

你认为这两种情况是相似的，还是完全不同的？

Do you think the two situations are similar or you think they are entirely different?

我认为情况很不一样。

I think it's quite different.

我们还处于这场牛市的早期阶段。

We're still in the early stage of this bull market.

明白吗？

Alright?

所以我认为最近几周股市表现相当不错。

So I think stock has been doing rather well in recent weeks.

上证综合指数已经涨到了4200点。

We are up to 4,200 for the Shanghai Composite.

今年年初以来市场持续上涨，投资者表现极为出色。

The market rally right into the open of this year, and people has been doing exceedingly well.

我认为监管机构可能试图给市场降温，因为监管机构一直表示希望看到一个缓慢的牛市。

So I think that the regulators probably trying to calm down the market because the regulators keep saying that it wants a slow bull market.

现在，这种官方说法的悖论在于，如果你真的希望有一个缓慢的牛市，比如说你希望市场在未来三年持续上涨。

Now the paradox of such official statement is that if you really want a slow bull market, let's say you want the market continue to rise in the next three years.

如果我是投资者，知道你作为监管者希望市场在未来三年持续上涨，那我就会现在买入。

If I were an investor, know that you as a regulator try to make the market continue to rise for the next three years, then I'll buy now.

所以你越说希望有缓慢的牛市，就越可能引发当前的疯狂上涨，因为每个人都明白你正在试图推动一个缓慢的牛市，因此我会提前行动，抢在你真正行动之前布局。

So the more you say I want a slow bull market, the more likely you're gonna end up with a crazy rally right now because everybody knows that you're trying to engineer a slow bull, and therefore, I'm gonna game you and gonna front run you before you can actually move.

所以我认为，这正是今年年初市场迅速上涨的原因之一。

So I think that is actually one of the reasons why we're seeing the market rally out of the gate beginning of the year.

其次，我认为尽管融资余额处于历史高位，但如今的市场规模与十年前已完全不同。

Secondly, I think even though margin financing balance is at all time high, but the market size now is entirely different from what it was ten years ago.

十年前，我认为中国股票的总市值甚至不到现在峰值时的一半。

So ten years ago, I think the market cap of Chinese stocks is probably not even half of what it is now even at the peak of its index peak ten years ago.

这个市值可能还不到目前130万亿日元市值的一半。

This market cap is probably less than half of the 130,000,000,000,000 yen market cap that we're seeing right now.

因此，如果将未偿还的融资余额与总市值进行比较，我会说杠杆率实际上比十年前显著更低。

So if you compare the outstanding margin financing balance to the total market cap, then I would say that the leverage ratio is actually relatively substantially lower than ten years ago.

此外，如果你留意监管机构正在做的，就会发现他们正试图有序地去杠杆。

And also, if you notice what the regulator is trying to do is deleverage in an orderly manner.

十年前，你知道，我当时正好身处这场风波的中心。

So ten years ago, you know, it just happened that I was right in the middle of the action ten years ago.

你知道，我因为发布了一份报告而被市场痛击，那份报告在泡沫破裂当天称泡沫即将破裂。

You know, I was slaughtered as the man who call the bubble burst because I published a report on the day of the bubble burst saying the bubble is going to burst.

所以十年前，我们实际上是在没有向市场充分预警的情况下试图去杠杆。

So what happened was that ten years ago, we're actually trying to deleverage without much notice to the market.

所以我们实际上是以极其残酷、暴力和强制的方式去杠杆化市场。

So we basically literally brutally, violently, forcefully deleveraged the market.

当这种情况发生时，市场开始暴跌，人们不得不满足保证金追缴要求，而当时杠杆率如此之高，人们几乎借到了极限，因此他们不得不抛售股票组合来满足保证金追缴。

So when that happened because the market is starting to plunge then people has to meet their market margin call and back then because the leverage was so high and people leveraged up to their eyeballs and therefore they had to sell down their stock portfolio to meet margin calls.

有时，中国的券商也不得不清算其投资组合以满足保证金追缴要求。

And sometimes the Chinese brokers had to liquidate their investment portfolio so as to meet the margin call.

因此，这是一次无序的去杠杆过程。

So there was a disorderly deleveraging process.

它完全出乎意料，没有人对此做好准备。

It came all out of the blue and nobody was prepared for it.

但这次情况完全不同。

Now this time it's entirely different.

监管机构正以有条不紊的步伐进行操作，同时在国家队的帮助下，也在逐步减持部分投资组合。

The regulators doing it at a measured place and also with the help of the national team, they are selling down some of the portfolio as well.

因此，我认为监管机构将能够掌控市场在最初几周的疯狂上涨。

And so I think the regulator is going to get a handle of the market's crazy rally in the first few weeks.

我认为一旦市场回落，我们就会推出各种支持经济的政策。

And I think once the market come down, then, you know, we'll come up with all sorts of supportive policy for the economy.

所以市场将重新恢复上涨趋势。

So then the market will resume its upward trend.

因此，我认为现在的情况与2015年不可同日而语，我觉得监管层这次做对了，因为他们正试图有序地去杠杆。

So I think for now it's not comparable with 2015 and I think the regulator is doing something right this time because it's trying to deleverage orderly.

但由于监管层希望看到一个缓慢的牛市，因此我认为在近期内，市场很可能会再次开始反弹。

But then since the regulator is looking for a slow bull market and therefore I think more likely than not in the near term you will see the market start to rally again.

有道理，但愿最终我们真的能迎来一个缓慢的牛市。

Fair enough And let's just hope that eventually we indeed get a slow pull in a share side.

不过对于香港市场而言，显然市场并不太关注政策变化。

For the Hong Kong market though, obviously, the market is not watching so much about policy changes.

但目前，我认为焦点非常明确，那就是观察IPO活动如何影响市场动能。

But for now, I think the focus laser focus, I would say, is to see how the IPO activity might have influenced the market momentum.

我们以前做过一些历史研究。

We've done some historical study before.

看起来，IPO金额与后续回报之间并没有明确的证据或关系，但从心理层面来说，这一直是人们如果想担忧的话会关注的因素之一。

It doesn't look like there's any clear evidence or clear relationship between the IPO amount and the subsequent returns, but psychologically, that has always been one of the factors that people worry about if they want to worry about something.

去年，香港通过IPO筹集了近3000亿港元，尤其是在12月上市之后，我们现在可以购买到在香港上市的中国GPU公司、AI模型公司以及许多科技领域的公司股票。

And Hong Kong raised close to 300,000,000,000 Hong Kong dollars through IPOs last year and especially after the listings in December, we can now buy Hong Kong listed stocks of Chinese GPU and also AI model companies and many companies that are in the technology sector.

唯一的问题是，这些上市的一些公司甚至都不太可能成功。

The only thing is that some of these companies that that got listed are not even probable.

无论如何，我想问哈尔的是：我们现在是不是上市太多了？

By any case, my question to Hal is are we having too many listings now?

我们是否应该担心，如果IPO管道过于拥挤，会拖累香港市场的表现？

And should we be concerned that if we have heavy IPO pipeline, will that drag down the market performance in Hong Kong?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为去年第四季度，香港市场的涨势实际上放缓了。

I think towards the fourth quarter last year, the rally of the Hong Kong market actually slowed down.

有些人将此归因于大量中国公司在香港进行IPO。

Some people attributed to lots of Chinese companies going IPO in Hong Kong.

我觉得现在IPO市场非常火热。

I think these days, the IPO market is really heated.

如果你想在香港交易所敲钟，就得排队，因为每天都有三到四家甚至更多的公司在香港交易所上市。

If you want to ring the gong in this Hong Kong Stock Exchange, you have to line up in the queue because every day we have three, four companies or even more sometimes that get listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

所以我觉得这有好有坏。

So I think it's good and bad.

在牛市中，通常会看到更多IPO，因为这一年这个时候，许多公司都想上市以高价出售。

It's good that normally during a bull market, you see a lot more IPO because this time of the year, many of the companies will want to list itself to sell for a higher price.

但这是一种牛市行为。

But then there's a bull market behavior.

这是牛市的特征。

It's a feature of the bull market.

但与此同时，由于流动性被分流，大量流动性被锁定在IPO抽签中。

But at the same time, because of the liquidity diversion, much of the liquidity is being locked up in the IPO lottery.

如今，中签率非常低，当一家优质公司进行IPO时，会锁定高达一万亿港元的流动性在银行账户中。

Nowadays, the lottery winning ratio is so low that when a good company come in for IPO, then it will lock up a trillion Hong Kong dollars of liquidity in the banking account.

所以我认为这是典型的牛市特征，但与此同时，它确实将部分市场流动性分流到了IPO过程中，而不是用于二级市场。

So I think it's a a typical bull market characteristic, but then at the same time, it does diverge some of the liquidity in the market into the IPO process rather than use it for the secondary market.

我认为总体而言，这种大量IPO带来的好处一定超过了其弊端。

I think all in all, the benefits of such heavy IPO volume must have outweighed the drawbacks.

如果你看看香港的金融行业，去年我们实际上看到许多大型投行，甚至一些小型投行都在招聘新人。

If you look at the Hong Kong financial industry, last year, we're actually seeing many of the big I banks, even the smaller I banks are actually recruiting for new hires.

这种情况已经很久没有发生了。

It hasn't happened for a long time.

所以这座城市里一些较小的中国券商也在招聘，他们去年业绩不错。

So even some of the smaller Chinese brokers in the city is recruiting as well, and they had a good year last year.

而今年，赚钱的势头似乎仍在持续。

And this year, the money making process seems to be continuing.

我听说今年银行家们的奖金又创下了新高。

And I heard that bankers are getting record bonus again this year.

如果是这样，那么我会说IPO实际上也在帮助城市的经济发展，使人们的消费能力提升，从而带动零售业的更多经济增长。

If so, then I would say that the IPO is actually helping the city's economy as well so that people's consumption money would increase, and therefore, there will be more economic growth from retail.

所以我认为IPO带来的收益一定超过了其弊端。

So I think the benefits from IPOs must have outweighed the drawbacks.

因此，我认为总体而言，IPO对香港经济和市场是有利的。

And so therefore, I would say that IPO in general is good for the Hong Kong economy and the market.

有道理。

Fair enough.

我的看法是类似的：是的，如果IPO公司太多，可能会抽走流动性，但正如我们刚才讨论的，现在有很多资金正从美国或其他地方流入香港。

And the way I would think about it is similar in which, yes, if there are too many IPO companies that it could drain the liquidity, but as we just discussed, a lot of money are now coming into Hong Kong from US or somewhere else.

所以希望这些资金能够被很好地吸收。

So hopefully, that will be well absorbed.

此外，从市场结构来看，过去香港市场主要集中在互联网和金融公司。

And also from a market structure perspective, in the past, Hong Kong market is all about Internet and also financial companies.

其他行业都太小了，我们几乎没有多少硬科技公司，而随着这一波IPO潮，我们终于迎来了一些半导体公司、人工智能公司、机器人零部件公司等，我认为这使得香港市场更能真实反映中国实体经济的行业结构。

All other sectors are too small and we really don't have a lot of the hard technology companies and now with these waves of IPOs, we now finally have some of these semiconductor companies, AI companies, robotic component companies, etcetera, and I would say that it actually makes Hong Kong market more representative of what the Chinese economy is really doing from a sector perspective.

总之，我觉得我们继续下一个问题吧，因为过去两周，保罗，我认为你分享了一些关于中国市场的非常重要的见解。

Anyway, I think we move on to the next question because over the past two weeks, Paul, you shared some really important insights in my view about the China market.

我认为你提到，中国经济可能正接近当前周期的顶峰，但考虑到整体流动性状况，市场估值仍处于区间底部附近。

I think you mentioned that the Chinese economy may be getting closer to the peak in the current cycle, but the market valuations are still near the bottom of the range as you take into account the overall liquidity conditions.

对于我们播客的广大听众来说，您能否更详细地阐述一下这些观点？

For the broader audience here of our podcast, could you walk us through the arguments in more detail?

而且我认为更重要的是，这些看法将如何影响中国市场的前景？

And I think more importantly, how will these thinking affect the outlook of the Chinese market?

是的。

Yes.

我开发的量化经济周期模型是我市场分析中的一个非常重要的组成部分，因为市场几乎总是反映经济的走向。

The quantitative economic cycle model that I developed to track the movement in the Chinese economy is one of the very important elements in my market course, know, because market almost always reflect the direction of the economy.

因此，如果我们能判断经济的走向，那么我们也就应该能够预测市场下一步的动向。

And so if we can tell where the economy is going then, you know, we should be able to tell where the market is going next.

对吧？

Right?

所以这个模型非常重要。

So that's why the model is very important.

现在我认为一个常见的误解是，当经济周期达到高位时，市场就不再有上涨空间了，但这并不完全正确。

Now I think a common misconception is that when the economic cycle reaches high then there's no more gains to be had in the market, which is not exactly true.

所以可能发生两种情况。

So two things can happen.

一种是，一旦经济周期达到顶峰，经济增长的动能就会放缓。

One is that, you know, once the economic cycle is reached then the economic growth momentum is gonna slow down.

对吧？

Right?

因为这个模型实际上是在衡量经济的动能。

So because the model is actually measuring the momentum in the economy.

当动能放缓时，市场价格往往会反映这一点，因为市场是按边际定价的。

Now when the momentum slows down, then the market price tend to reflect that because the market is priced on margin.

在这个反映过程中，市场价格可能会面临压力。

Then in this reflection process, then market price could be under some pressure.

尤其是当有催化剂出现时，比如利率上调、贸易战或其他市场风险因素，市场往往会承受压力。

Especially when there's catalysts, for example, interest rate hike or trade war or other risk factors that is in the market, then the market tend to be under pressure.

现在另一个情况是，即使经济增长的边际动能正在放缓，且市场已达到相对高位，市场的收益也可能放缓，但不一定崩盘。

Now another thing is that even though the growth momentum is slowing on the margin and the market has reached a relatively high level, then the gain in the market can also slow but not necessarily crash.

对吧？

Right?

因此，市场可能会在一段时间内横盘整理，或者由于系统中流动性充足而继续大幅上涨。

So the market can go sideways for a certain period of time, or the market can surge further because there's plenty of liquidity in the system.

在这种情况下，市场不再反映经济增长动能的疲软，而是反映了市场价格中的流动性增长动能。

So in this case, the market stopped reflecting the weakness in momentum in economic growth, but rather the liquidity growth momentum in the market price.

现在，认识到这种可能性非常重要。

Now that's very, very important to recognize this possibility.

2015年，如果你看图表，会发现市场实际上在经济动能减弱的情况下仍强劲上涨。

In 2015, now what happened is that if you look at the chart, you can see the market actually rally away from a weakening economic momentum.

这就是我们定义泡沫的方式。

Now that's how we define a bubble.

当市场价格在经济增长动能或基本面减弱的情况下仍上涨时，这就被称为泡沫。

Market price rally away from weakening momentum or weakening fundamental and therefore it's called a bubble.

所以2015年的情况就是这样。

So that was the situation in 2015.

现在我想说的是，尽管我们很可能在未来继续察觉到增长动能的减弱，就像我们在过去两个月已经观察到的那样。

Now what I'm trying to say is that even though we're probably going to detect a weakening momentum going forward as we have already detected such happening in the past two months.

不过在2025年，由于国家消费补贴以及中国出口持续强劲，我认为上半年中国的经济增长实际上超过了预期。

Now basically, in the 2025 because of the national consumption subsidy and also Chinese exports has been going strong, I think the first half, the Chinese growth is actually beating expectation.

进入下半年，尤其是第四季度，我们看到消费又开始放缓。

Now going to the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, then we're seeing consumption start to slow again.

房地产价格继续下跌。

Property price continue to fall.

房地产销售持续下滑。

Property sales continue to fall.

房地产投资仍处于两位数下降。

Property investment is still down double digit.

因此，增长动能确实在放缓。

So the momentum is indeed slowing.

但我认为市场还是会继续上涨。

But I think market rally away regardless.

所以我认为，无论这是否是泡沫情景，还是需要更多政策支持的情景，有一点我们可以肯定：在新五年计划的第一年，当局极不可能不使用支持性政策来提振市场和经济。

So I would say that whether it's a bubbly scenario or whether it's a scenario that call for more policy support, one thing we can be sure is that in the first year of the new five year plan, it's highly unlikely that this authority is not gonna use supportive policies to support the market and the economy.

因此，我更有可能看到在三月的两会期间出台更多支持性政策。

So I think more likely than not, we're gonna see more supportive policies coming out in the two sessions in March.

如果真是这样，那么我认为，在这段暂停之后，尤其是当监管机构让市场以稳健的步伐上涨后，市场将在未来几个月重新启动。

If so, then I would say that, you know, after this pause, especially after regulators get its hands on the market rising at a measured pace, then I would say that the market will resume really in the coming months.

是的。

Yeah.

我们从Jewel Spare那里也对中国市场抱有类似的信心。

And we do have similar confidence in the Chinese market from Jewel Spare as well.

我们许多投资者的最后一个问题是，我们应该关注哪些行业？

The last question from a lot of our investors is what are the sectors that we should pay attention to?

显然，在牛市中，大多数行业都会上涨。

Obviously, in a bull market, most of those sectors should rise.

但如果我们必须挑选几个，你会选择哪些呢？

But if we have to pick a few, what would be your choice?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为我们一直推荐贵金属、有色金属和资源板块。

I think we've been recommending precious metal, nonferrous metal, and the resource sectors.

我认为它们表现非常好，极为出色。

I think they're doing very well, exceedingly well.

即使我们对这些板块和个股已有非常强烈的推荐，它们的表现仍远超我们的预期。

It's well above our expectations even though we have a very strong recommendation of these sectors and these names.

其次，我们也正在把握人工智能的机会。

I think secondly, we are either getting the AI opportunities as well.

因此，我们在半导体行业以及许多与人工智能相关的主题上都有布局。

So, you know, we're getting exposure in the semiconductor industry and many of the AI related themes.

例如，新能源发电，以及任何与人工智能和技术发展相关的公司和板块。

For example, new energy generation and any companies and the sectors that is related to AI and technology development.

最后，我想说的是，香港仍有股票提供高达7%的股息收益率。

Lastly, I would say that high dividend yield stocks, which is still paying 7% dividend yield in Hong Kong.

我认为这可以作为长期配置，成为人们基础投资组合的一部分，以便在美联储可能再次降息的世界中持续获得7%的收益。

I think this can be a longer term allocation as people's base portfolio allocation so that you continue to enjoy a 7% yield in a world that probably the Fed interest rate is gonna be cut again.

所以，总结起来有三点：金属、人工智能与科技，以及高股息收益率股票。

So three things, metals, AI, and tech, and also high dividend yield stocks.

说得非常好。

Very well said.

非常感谢你，哈尔，与我们分享这些见解。

And thank you very much, Hal, for sharing.

今天我们要讨论的内容基本上就这些了。

And that's pretty much all we have to discuss today.

各位听众，感谢收听，敬请关注我们的下一期播客。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for listening, and stay tuned for our next podcast.

再见，我们很快再聊。

Goodbye, and speak soon.

谢谢，理查德。

Thanks, Richard.

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The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

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