视野之外：伊朗战争对亚洲市场的影响

大家好。

Hello, everyone.

欢迎收听嘉能可播客。

Welcome to the Julius Baer podcast.

我是Richard Tang，中国策略师兼巴克莱银行香港研究主管。

This is Richard Tang, the China strategist and head of research Hong Kong for Ban Julius Baer.

很高兴再次邀请Hong Hao与我们讨论中国市场的前景。

It's great to have Hong Hao again with us to discuss the outlook for the Chinese market.

Hao是一位著名的经济学家，同时也是莲花资产管理公司的管理合伙人兼首席投资官。

Hao is a renowned economist, and he's also the managing partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management.

嗨，Hao。

Hi, Hao.

非常感谢你今天抽出时间与我们交谈。

Thank you very much for your time speaking with us today.

嘿，Richard。

Hey, Richard.

很高兴能来这里。

Good to be here.

哈尔，我想你会同意，三月对大多数投资者来说都是非常繁忙的月份，包括我们两人在内，因为世界上正在发生多件大事。

Hal, I think you would agree that March is really a busy month for most of the investors, including both of us, because there are multiple things going on in the world.

我们刚刚结束了中国的两会。

We just concluded the two sessions in China.

但显然，资本市场目前更关注中东的局势。

But, clearly, the capital market is paying more attention to the situation in The Middle East right now.

我们看到原油期货价格已回升至每桶90至100美元区间，而中国和美国的股市目前都陷入盘整。

We've seen that the crude oil futures have got back to the 90 to $100 levels, and both the Chinese and US equity markets are now stuck in a trading range.

它们并没有大幅下跌，但至少美国市场的上升趋势已经停滞。

They did not fall a lot, but at least they stopped the uptrend for The US market in particular.

当然，我们不是军事专家，因此不会预测地缘政治的发展。

And, of course, we are not military experts, so we will avoid predicting the geopolitical developments.

但郝，我想听听你对经济影响的看法。

But, Hao, I do want to hear from you regarding your views on the economic impact.

假设最坏情况稍微恶化一些，如果油价在几个月内保持在高位，这会对中国市场产生什么影响？

Let's say, for a slightly worst case scenario, if oil prices stay at elevated levels for a few months, what impact will that have on the Chinese market?

这仅仅是市场情绪和流动性的问题，还是会对中国实体经济产生实际影响？

Is it just a matter of market sentiment and liquidity, or would there also be a tangible impact on the Chinese economy?

我认为这次中国准备得更好了。

I think China is better prepared this time.

我认为在过去几年里，中国大力推动新能源转型以促进经济增长。

I think in the past couple of years, China made a very sufficient effort to change to new energy to drive economic growth.

所以现在，每卖出三辆车，就有一辆甚至更多是电动汽车。

So I think for now, every three cars sold in China, there's one or even more than one EVs.

而且在装机容量方面，新增发电能力中超过50%来自新能源。

And also for installed capacity, electricity generation capacity, over 50% of the newly installed capacity is in new energy.

比如太阳能、风能等等。

For example, the solar power, wind power and all that.

因此，从对石油能源的依赖来看，中国比以前好太多了。

So I think in terms of petrol energy dependency, China is a lot better than before.

此外，如果你看看中国一直囤积的战略石油储备，广泛流传的说法是，中国已经积累了相当于六个月用量的战略储备。

And also, if you look at the strategic oil reserve that China has been stocking up, there's widely circulated a number of up to six months worth of strategic reserve that China has accumulated.

而且，还有许多满载石油的油轮正在海上航行，目的地是中国。

And plus, there are many oil tankers full of oil still traveling on the sea and they are traveling towards China.

这些油轮中的海上库存加起来也达到了三个月的量。

The sea inventory in all of these tankers add up to another three months as well.

所以我认为，如果伊朗战争不持续拖延，中国将处于相对有利的位置来应对这场风暴。

So I think if the Iranian war doesn't drag on, then China is in a relatively strong position to weather the storm.

但我认为，对于许多其他亚洲国家和地区，比如日本，情况就不同了。

But I think for many other Asian countries and regions, for example, Japan.

日本的能源完全依赖进口，韩国也是如此。

Japan's energy is all reliant on import and also South Korea as well.

如果是这样，那么这些经济体将面临特别严峻的挑战。

So if that's the case, then it will be particularly harsh for these kind of economies.

事实上，我们已经看到韩国市场多次崩盘，而今年年初以来表现优异的日本市场最近也承受了不小的压力。

Already, you know, we're seeing multiple times of meltdown in the Korean market and also the Japanese market, which has been doing exceedingly well since the beginning of this year, is under undue pressure recently.

对。

Right.

正如你所说，有趣的是，当局势紧张时，日本和韩国市场在几天内大幅下跌。

And as you mentioned, the interesting situation is that the Japan and Korea markets have fallen quite significantly over a few days when the situation is intense.

但对于香港和中国来说，即使中东局势如此，香港和亚洲其他地区在我看来仍相对有韧性。

But for Hong Kong, China, even with the Middle East situation, both Hong Kong and Asians were, I would say, relatively resilient.

它们确实下跌了，但跌幅远小于日本、韩国以及一些其他东南亚市场。

They have fallen, but fallen much less compared to Japan and Korea and a couple of other Southeast Asian markets as well.

我想，正如你提到的，这背后有一些根本性原因，比如你所说的石油储备和石油依赖度等因素。

And I guess, as you mentioned, that's because of some of the fundamental reasons that you articulated related to the oil reserves and also the oil intensity, etcetera.

从市场角度来看，可能是因为中国市场的表现今年到目前为止一直疲软。

From a market perspective, it may be because simply China market has lacked year to date.

所以如果问题是赢家被抛售，那么中国市场的这种疲软反而让它幸免于难。

So if it's about winners being sold, then I think China market is saved in this way.

而且，过去一周左右，我们还看到了类似AI Open Claw这样的事件，可能也在一定程度上提振了科技板块。

And, also, we've seen over past week or so, you have this AI Open Claw thing that's probably helped lifted the tech part of the market a little bit as well.

但无论如何，浩，你之前提到过，香港股票通常对全球流动性更为敏感。

But in any case, Hao, you mentioned in the early episodes that Hong Kong equities generally are more sensitive to global liquidity.

嗯。

Mhmm.

如果油价上涨，导致期货市场预期未来降息幅度减少，那么这自然也会对香港市场造成一定压力，尤其是与亚洲本土市场相比，在短期内更是如此。

And if oil prices go up and that cause the futures market to price in fewer fat cuts in the future, then naturally, that might also weigh on the Hong Kong market a little bit more, especially if we compare to the Asia domestic market, particularly in the short term.

你现在还持这种观点吗？对于中国整体市场，我们是否仍应保持乐观预期，比如在六到九个月的投资周期内？

Do you still hold this view now, and should we still keep an optimistic expectation for the broader China market, let's say, for six to nine months investment horizon?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为作为股票投资者，我们注定会持更积极的看法。

I think as equity investors, we bound to be having a more positive view.

好的。

Alright.

否则的话，你知道，股票毕竟是高风险资产。

Otherwise, you know, you know, because yeah, stocks are gross asset.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你持悲观态度，那还不如干脆放弃股市，转投债券。

So if if you are pessimistic, then you might as well just finish up and do bond investments.

但即便在当前时点，我也认为债券并不是一个好的避险资产，因为显然通胀预期正在上升，而市场押注美联储今年晚些时候仅降息一次的预期已不再确定。

And even at this juncture, I don't think bond is a good safe haven either because clearly inflation expectation is rising and the bets on the Fed cutting interest rate once later on this year is not a sure bet anymore.

是的。

Yep.

如果伊朗战争持续拖延，我认为美联储的行动将受到限制。

I think the Fed's hands would be bound if the Iranian war drags on.

所以我认为，我们必须保持乐观态度。

So I think, you know, we have to maintain positivity.

我们必须对未来保持乐观。

We have to be optimistic about the future.

话虽如此，你刚才提到的时间框架是六到九个月，也就是今年年底左右。

Now having said that, just now you mentioned that time frame is about six to nine months, which is towards the end of this year.

我会说，是的，我认为有相当的信心，到那时战争将出现一个转折点。

I will say that, yeah, I think with reasonable confidence, you know, an inflection point of the war would have emerged by that.

所以尽管没人知道具体何时，但给足时间，我们应该能看到战争的明确转折点。

So even though nobody knows when, but think given enough time, then, you know, we should see a clear inflection point in the war.

一旦我们看到这个转折点，甚至不需要等到战争结束，就能判断市场底部。

And once we see the inflection point, we don't even have to wait for the war to be over to pick a market bottom.

但目前，我担心这还为时过早。

But right now, I am afraid that it is still way too early in the days.

我认为随着战争的推进，我们会看到更多迹象。

I think as the war progress, you know, we will see a lot more sign.

我认为现在双方都还在强硬对峙，尤其是伊朗在面对美国猛烈打击时表现得非常 defiant。

And I think right now, the two sides are still being very tough at each other, especially Iran is being very defiant in the face of heavy US assault.

所以让我们拭目以待。

So let's wait and see.

但我觉得作为股票投资者，我们始终应该保持乐观。

But I think as equity investors, we should always stay positive.

在A和H之间，你是否仍然认为，我想你会说，香港市场对全球流动性以及美联储和其他央行利率预期的变化更为脆弱或敏感？

And between A and H, would you still say that, I guess you will, that Hong Kong market is still more vulnerable or sensitive to all these global liquidity and changes in the rate expectations, especially by the Fed and other central banks?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，与内地市场相比，香港市场一直遭受了更严重的冲击。

I think Hong Kong has been under the weather substantially more than the onshore market.

自战争开始以来，我认为香港市场的跌幅超过了亚洲市场。

Since the beginning of the war, I think Hong Kong market is down more than the Asian market.

我认为作为一个小型开放经济体，优势在于你确实享有经济自由和市场驱动的经济体系，因此一切更加透明。

I think being a small open economy, so, you know, the advantage is that you really enjoy the economic freedom and also a market driven economy, so everything is more transparent.

但香港没有资本流动限制，这意味着在这样的时期，资本会迅速外流。

But then not having any limits on capital flow in Hong Kong, basically, also mean that at times like this, capital will fly away from you.

因此，我们最近看到，美元汇率从一个关键支撑位大幅飙升，现已接近100。

So we're seeing, for example, recently the US dollar exchange rate has been surging from a key support level, and now it's close to a 100.

汇率上升意味着市场对美元现金的需求巨大。

With the exchange rate rising, what that means is that there's a huge demand for US dollar cash.

由于这种需求，短期内可能超过了供应，这就是美元强劲上涨的原因。

And because of this demand, probably in the short run outstripping supply, and that is the reason why, you know, the US dollar is rising strongly.

所以我认为，香港的下跌趋势尚未结束。

So I think Hong Kong, the downtrend is not finished just yet.

但我认为，一旦我们看到战争的转折点，就能确定香港市场的底部。

But I think, you know, once we see an inflection point of the war, then we'll be able to pick a bottom in the Hong Kong market.

对。

Right.

既然我们谈到了香港和A股，我认为我们应该回到国内因素上。

Since we talk about Hong Kong and A shares, I think we should go back to the domestic factors.

最近刚刚结束了一个非常重要的事件，那就是中国的两会。

One very important event just concluded, which is the two sessions in China.

让我们花些时间解读一下政府工作报告中的各项经济政策。

So let us take some time to interpret all those economic policies from the work report.

我认为媒体尤其关注将GDP增长目标下调至4.5%至5%。

I think the media has been especially focused on that lower GDP growth target to 4.5 to 5%.

坦率地说，我们认为这大致符合预期。

Frankly, we actually think this is broadly in line with expectations.

我假设许多投资者本来就已经预期增长目标会略低一些，但显然，媒体有时会以另一种方式解读。

I would assume that a lot of investors are expecting slightly lower growth target anyway, but, obviously, sometimes the media will spin things in another way.

我不知道这是否是巧合，但我注意到一个有趣的现象：在政府工作报告发布当天，也就是3月5日，沪深港通南向资金创下了历史最大流出纪录。

I don't know if this is a coincidence or not, but I think the interesting observation that I make is that on the day that the government work report was delivered, I think that was March 5, the stock connect actually recorded the largest southbound outflow in history.

我可能对单一数据过度解读了，但 Hao，我的问题是，你认为市场反应过度了吗？还是你认为这两者之间存在因果关系？

I may be reading too much into just one number, but Hao, my question is, do you think the market overreacted, or do you see a relationship causality of these two at all?

更重要的是，从货币政策委员会的工作报告中，有哪些值得关注的要点？

And I guess more importantly, what are the noteworthy takeaways from the MPC work report?

我认为，在两会期间发生的伊朗战争是这一现象的主要驱动因素。

I would say that the Iranian war, which happened during the twin sessions, is the key driver of this development.

基本上，资金正在寻求避险，因此正在从香港市场撤出。

Basically, funds are looking for safe haven and therefore they're withdrawing from the Hong Kong market.

我认为这并不令人意外，也与我们之前关于香港作为小型开放经济体如何应对此次风暴的讨论一致。

I don't think that's surprising and also it's consistent with our earlier discussion about how Hong Kong as a small open economy could weather the storm this time.

这也是为什么亚洲其他地区目前比香港股市更具韧性的原因。

And also it is the reason why the Asia is a lot more resilient than the Hong Kong share at this juncture.

我认为两会为市场设定了非常积极的基调。

I think the twin session is setting a very positive tone.

有些人表示失望，因为经济增长目标设定在4.5%至5%之间，略低于正常年份的水平。

Some people claim that they are disappointed because the growth target is four and a half to 5%, which is slightly lower than a normal year.

现在的问题是，今年我们可能会真正认真地推进消费转型。

Now the thing is, this is probably the year we're gonna really be serious about consumption transformation.

因此，中国希望转型为一个以消费驱动增长的经济体。

So China wants to transform into an economy that is growing by consumption drive.

如果是这样，那么消费长期以来一直是整体GDP结构中增长较慢的组成部分。

If so, then consumption basically has been a slower growth component in the overall GDP structure.

所以，如果我们现在想依靠一个增长较慢的组成部分来推动经济增长，那么整体增速就必须放缓。

So if now we want to rely on a slower growth component to drive economic growth, then the overall growth has to slow down.

但与此同时，人们必须认识到，这一较低的增长目标恰恰体现了中国政府推进消费转型的决心。

But then at the same time, people have to realize that this slower growth target actually testify the result of the Chinese government to do this consumption transformation.

所以我认为这是一个非常强烈的信号。

So I think that's a very strong sign.

从两会的其他收获来看，人大代表们就社会福利、教育以及如何改善农村人口福祉等方面提出了许多良好建议。

Now other takeaway from the twin sessions, so there are many good proposal raised by the people's representatives in terms of social welfare, education, and also for the rural population how to improve their welfare as well.

因此，两会期间提出了许多值得重视的建议。

So there are many worthwhile valuable proposals during the twin sessions.

此外，在财政政策方面，我认为基调非常积极。

And also in terms of physical policy, I think the tone is very positive.

因此，他们希望在运用财政政策时更加积极主动。

So they want to be more proactive when using the physical policy.

同时，货币政策将保持适度宽松。

And also monetary policy would remain moderately loose.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，无论是从财政方面还是货币方面，我们都看到了对经济增长的强力支持。

So I think both from a physical side and from the monetary side, we're seeing strong support for the economy growth.

同时，增长目标也反映了政府推动经济向消费驱动型模式转型的决心。

And then at the same time, the growth target is a reflection of the government's resolve trying to transform into a consumption driven economic growth model.

所以我认为总体而言，这是积极的。

So I think overall, it is positive.

另外，请记住，这是五年规划的第一年。

And also remember, this is the first year of the five year plan.

还有很多工作要做，也有很多值得期待的地方。

There's much to be done and much to be looking forward to.

我认为就增长目标而言，虽然增长率略有下调，但增长的质量在提升，经济结构也更加平衡，这表明中国经济转型正在朝着积极的方向发展。

I think in terms of the growth target, we think that the growth, yes, they came down a little bit, but the quality of the growth is improving, and the structure of the economy is also becoming more balanced, which we do read that into a positive sign of the transition of the Chinese economy.

对于投资者而言，他们仍在等待各政府部门出台更详细的政策，以明确如何具体实施‘十五五’规划，投资者仍期待各行业能得到支持性政策。

For investors, I think they are still waiting for more detailed policies coming from the different government departments related to how exactly they are going to implement the fifteen five year plan, and investors are still keeping the hope that there would be supported policies in the different sectors.

目前，中国股市显然还需要一些时间才能反弹，正如你提到的，哈尔，我们确实需要等待阴霾稍稍散去。

Now the Chinese equity market, obviously, still needs a little bit of time before it may rebound, as you mentioned, Hal, that we really need to wait for the fog of war to clear out a bit.

但我认为一个有趣的观察是，人民币的升值实际上更加稳健。

But I think one interesting observation is that the RMB appreciation has actually been more steady.

人民币一直走强，直到二月，换句话说，直到中东战争爆发。

It's been strengthening all the way until the February or, in other words, until the Middle East war began.

我们之前已经多次讨论过人民币升值的原因。

And we've discussed the rationale for expanding RMB appreciation a few times already in the past.

其中一个因素显然是美元贬值，而人民币则会相应升值。

One factor, obviously, is the dollar depreciation and on forward side, RMB on the other side will appreciate.

另一个原因是中国的出口表现强劲，最近一个月的数据仍显示出中国出口的强势。

And then the other reason is a fairly strong export in China, and we're still seeing the strength in Chinese exports, in the most recent month of data.

我有两个问题想问你，哈尔。

I have two questions for you, Hal.

首先，我们看到了人民币。

First, we've seen the RMB.

它跌破了7，随后又跌破了6.9。

It broke below 7, and then it broke below 6.9.

这标志着一个新趋势的开始，还是存在汇率很快失去动力的风险？

Does this mark the beginning of a new trend, or is there a risk that the currency may run out of steam very soon?

我的第二个问题是，对于将资金（可能是美元或欧元）兑换成人民币的全球投资者来说，他们是简单地存入存款，还是认为有更好的选择，比如股票、债券等？

And then my second question is, for global investors who convert their money, maybe dollar, maybe euro, to the Chinese currency, the Chinese yuan, do they simply put it in a deposit, or you think there are better options, for example, stocks or bonds, etcetera?

回顾我们在十一月为今年做展望时，人民币升值是我们今年最强烈、最主要的预测之一。

Record back in November when we are doing outlook for this year, RMB appreciation has been one of our strongest and major call for this year.

我们正在见证人民币的重估，这推动了中国资产的重估，我们认为人民币是全球最被低估的货币。

We're seeing the revaluation of the yuan, which drive the revaluation of the Chinese asset, and we believe that the Chinese yuan is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world.

我认为它是最被低估的，而不仅仅是其中之一。

I think it is the most, not one of the most.

我认为这种信念源于多年累积的贸易顺差。

So I think this belief stemmed from years and years of trade surplus accumulation.

甚至一直到二月，我们再次看到了创纪录的历史新高贸易顺差。

Even until all the way until February, we're once again seeing a record breaking all time high trade surplus.

因此，每年从中国经济中，你都会产生1.2万亿、1.3万亿美元的顺差。

So each year from the Chinese economy, you're generating 1.2, 1,300,000,000,000.0 US dollars worth of surpluses.

这规模巨大。

And it's just huge.

如此庞大的累积顺差，你的货币却仍交易在历史区间较弱的一侧，这根本说不通。

And there's no way that with such accumulated significant surplus, your currency is still trading towards the weaker side of the historical range.

从购买力平价的角度来看，人民币至少被低估了40%，有时甚至更多。

And also from a PPP perspective, you're undervalued at least by 40% or sometimes more.

这些都充分说明了今年人民币升值的理由。

This is all sorts of reasons for the Chinese yuan to appreciate this year.

同时，请记住我们对美元的另一个观点：美元已经进入了一个17年周期的消耗阶段。

And also recall that we have another view for the US dollar, which is the US dollar has entered into a depletion phase in seventeen year cycle.

在这个17年的美元周期中，前十年美元通常走强，而后七年左右则倾向于走弱。

In this seventeen year US dollar cycle, for the first ten years, the US dollar tend to appreciate and then the last seven years or so, the US dollar tend to depreciate.

尽管当前伊朗战争爆发，美元正在升值，但这只是因为美元仍充当着避险资产，人们在这样的时刻会抛售投资组合、套现并持有美元，因为美元被视为避险货币。

So even though during the Iran war now broke out, the US dollar is appreciating, but it's really because the dollar is still acting as a risk saving and people at times like this trying to sell their portfolio and raise cash and hold US dollar because it's seen as a haven currency.

尽管存在这种短期升值，我们仍相信，在这场战争的转折点之后，美元将在未来几年坚定地维持下行趋势。

So despite this short term appreciation, we continue to believe that after the inflection of this war, that we will see the US dollar firmly remain in a downtrend for the coming years.

如果是这样，那么这又是人民币从当前水平进一步升值的另一个理由。

So if so, then it's another reason for the yuan to appreciate from here.

所以我认为从去年开始，自从我们做出这个判断时，汇率大约是7.2。

So I think since last year, since we made this call, back then it was 7.2 ish.

现在大约是6.8。

So now it's 6.8 ish.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，人民币已经升值了约8%。

So the RMB has appreciated about 8%.

但我认为我们连一半都还没走到。

But I think we're not even halfway there.

我认为今年人民币的升值空间还会更大。

I think this year, the room for appreciation would be more.

而且在这样的时期，随着不确定性上升，由于中国没有开放资本账户。

And also at times like this and uncertainty rising then because China doesn't have an open capital account.

因此，尽管外部市场波动剧烈，中国人民银行更容易管理人民币汇率。

So it's easier for the PPOC to manage the Chinese currency rate despite the volatility in the external market.

所以有太多理由看好人民币了。

So there's so many reasons to like the Chinese yuan.

我刚刚总结了几点，但我相信国际投资者已经开始重新审视人民币，因为过去几年它至少被低估了40%。

I think just now I summarized a few, but I'm pretty sure that international investors has started to take a second look at the Chinese yuan, which has been underappreciated by at least 40% in the past couple of years.

对。

Right.

哦，40%是个很大的数字。

Oh, 40% is a large number.

我同意。

And I agree.

美元的反弹可能包含很多自我实现的成分，尤其是在战争发生时出现的本能反应。

The dollar rebound probably has a lot of reflexivity in it when there's, you know, knee jerk reaction towards the war happening.

关于人民币的趋势，我想到了一点，那就是现在和两年前有很大不同：全球股市，尤其是美国市场，过去一直被视为非常受欢迎、预期非常乐观的市场。

One thing that I can think of regarding the trend of RMB, and there's a major difference between now and, let's say, two years ago, which is that the global equity market, especially The US market, previously was seen as a very popular market with very optimistic expectations.

因此，对于出口赚取的美元或欧元，人们有动力将它们留在全球市场中。

So for the dollar or the euro you earned from exports, there's incentive for people to keep those in the global markets.

但现在我认为中国市场或亚洲市场的吸引力也增强了，因此人们可能更有动力将资金汇回中国或附近地区。

But now I think the Chinese market attractiveness or the Asian market attractiveness has also increased, so there might be more incentive for them to repatriate to China or somewhere close.

所以，这可能也会支持人民币升值。

So, that probably will support RMB appreciation as well.

在我们结束之前，我想转到讨论一个我觉得非常有趣的话题，因为我知道你最近和理查德·库尔进行了一次非常精彩的对话。

And before we close, I think let's move on to discuss something I would regard very interesting because I know how you recently had a very great conversation with Richard Cool.

我假设大多数观众都知道理查德·库尔，因为他提出了资产负债表衰退理论。

I assume most of the audience know Richard Kuhl for his theory of balance sheet recession.

我看了那场对话。

I watched the conversation.

我觉得那是一场非常出色的对话。

I would say it was a really great conversation.

但为了观众的利益，您能否简要总结一下库尔先生关于中国如何避免资产负债表衰退所提出的建议？

But for the interest of our audience, how would you help summarize some of the recommendations that mister Ku gave regarding how China will be able to avoid a balance sheet recession?

而您本人也是一位非常著名的经济学家。

And you yourself is also a very renowned economist.

您是否完全同意或完全不同意他提出的任何观点？

Are there any things from him that you strongly agree with or you strongly disagree?

您能跟我们分享一下吗？

Would you share with us on this?

谢谢理查德，感谢您如此友善的评价。

Thanks, Richard, for your very kind words.

是的。

Yes.

我们有幸与理查德·库进行了长达一个多小时的对话。

We did have the honor to have a dialogue for well over an hour with Richard Ku.

我想大家都熟悉理查德·库提出的资产负债表衰退框架。

And I think everybody knows Richard Ku by his framework of balance sheet recession.

他基本认为，在当前这种房价暴跌的时期，房地产作为中国家庭资产负债表上最主要、最大的资产，其价格下跌会使家庭债务保持不变，但家庭净资产却不断缩水。

Basically, he's saying at times like this when property price is plunging and also property is one of the major asset, the biggest asset on Chinese households balance sheet, and therefore falling property price would make the Chinese households debt constant, but then the equity of the household balance sheet would be dwindling.

目前，许多中国家庭的房产实际上已经处于负资产状态。

Basically, for many Chinese households now, they would have negative equity on their homes.

因此，近年来，我们在现实中看到利率持续走低。

Because of this, in recent years, what we've seen in real life is that interest rate continue to trend down.

例如，去年中国十年期国债收益率创下了历史新低，而如今中国三十年期收益率甚至低于日本。

For example, last year, the Chinese ten year yield has made the all time low, and now the thirty year Chinese yield is actually lower than that of Japan.

但借贷并未激增。

But then borrowing is not surging.

对吧？

Right?

尽管市场上资金极其便宜，却没有人借贷。

So despite very cheap money that is available in the market, nobody is borrowing.

明白吗？

Alright?

这就是流动性陷阱，因为许多家庭的净资产为负，因此他们不愿再借贷，反而专注于偿还债务。

So that is a liquidity trap because many households is having negative equities, so they're reluctant to borrow more and instead they focus on paying down debt.

正因为如此，人们的消费减少，从而给经济带来压力，这也正是所谓资产负债表衰退的说法。

And because of that, people are consuming less and therefore creating pressure on the economy and thus the saying of a balance sheet recession.

这就是主要观点。

And so that's the main idea.

因为目前中国经济面临的许多挑战，与日本三四十年前所遭遇的问题非常相似。

Because right now many of the challenges that Chinese economy is facing is very similar to the ones that Japan was confronted with thirty, forty years ago.

而且日本的房地产泡沫是人类历史上最大的泡沫之一，人口老龄化问题也与中国的状况非常相似。

And also the Japanese property bubble is one of the biggest in human history and also the population aging problem is very similar to China.

甚至可以说，中国面临的人口危机比日本更为严重。

And one could even say that China is facing a even more severe demographic crisis than Japan.

鉴于如此多的相似之处，人们自然认为可以借鉴这一经验，从而更好地应对这一挑战。

With so much similarities, naturally, people think that you can actually borrow and learn from this lesson and so that we can handle this challenge better.

这就是这个想法。

That's the idea.

所以我认为他的建议其实是需要放宽货币政策，而我们确实因为流动性陷阱这么做了。

So I think his prescription really is that you really need to loosen up the military policy, which we did because of the liquidity trap.

宽松的货币政策并不会自动转化为信贷增长和经济活动。

Easy money policy doesn't automatically translate into credit growth and economic activities.

所以他建议，我们为什么不尝试扩大实际赤字呢？

So then he said, why don't we try expanding the physical deficit?

但我们知道，目前中国的广义实际赤字已达到约10%，并将在2026年前持续上升。

But we know that the broad physical deficit in China now is about 10% going into 2026.

看到更大的名义预算赤字并不令人意外。

One shouldn't be surprised to see even bigger nominal budget deficit.

如果是这样，那么中国政府实际上已经在实体扩张方面做了大量工作，同时也采取了大量货币宽松措施。

If so, then, you know, the Chinese government actually has done a lot on the physical expansion and also has done a lot on monetary easing.

那么，界限在哪里呢？

So, you know, where is the limit?

因此，这是一个属于定性问题，而非可以量化的提问。

So then this is a qualifying questions rather than a question that can be quantified.

我认为理查德并没有给出明确的答案。

I think Richard didn't give a definitive answer.

所以他表示，你只需尽可能多地印钞，通过这种方式改变市场的预期，让人们开始形成再通胀的预期，从而促使信贷再次增长，经济复苏也将再度加速。

So he said you just have to print as much as possible and in so doing you change the expectation of the market and so people start to have a reflation expectation and therefore then credit will grow again and the economic growth will be accelerating again.

记得去年七月左右，我们其实做过一期关于再通胀的播客。

Now remember last year around July, we actually had a podcast about reflation.

当时中国宣布了在雅鲁藏布江上新建的水电项目，这条河拥有世界上最重要的水电资源之一。

So back then China announced the new hydroelectric power project that is supposed to be at the Yaram Zambo River, which is a river that is holding one of the most significant hydropower in the world.

该项目宣布后，大宗商品价格开始飙升。

Back then, after the announcement of the project, the commodity price started to shoot up.

我们将那个时刻视为中国再通胀的转折点。

We identified that moment as a moment for Chinese reflation.

直到今天，如果你回看，PPI即上游通胀正在回升，而下游通缩情况也好于预期。

And all the way to today, if you look back, so PPI, the upstream inflation is now picking up and also downstream disinflation is actually better than expected.

对吧？

Right?

这意味着中国可能已经启动了一轮通胀，但并非通过更多货币宽松，而是通过实物支出。

So what that means is that China may has already initiated a period of inflation, but not by more monetary easing, but for physical spending.

因为建设一个项目实际上需要大量资金，至少需要几万亿元人民币。

Because to build a project, you actually need quite a bit of money, couple of trillion yuan at least.

中国正在做很多这方面的工作，但我认为中国经济中与房地产相关的领域仍然表现不佳。

China is doing much of this, but then I think the property related sectors in the Chinese economy is still not doing well.

还有待观察。

It remains to be seen.

我认为经济学更像是一门艺术，而不是科学。

I think economics is more than art than science.

这是一个领域，你只有通过亲身实践才能获得成果。

It's a field, a steady field that you only get the result by actually doing it.

没有人知道正确的答案。

Nobody knows the right answer.

例如，在2008年次贷危机期间，美国实际上是历史上首个启动量化宽松的国家。

For example, in 2008, during the subprime mortgage crisis, the Yankee actually was the first to initiate quantitative easing in The US history.

此后，美国进行了多轮量化宽松，如今美国市场和经济才达到现在的状态。

So then after that, you have multiple rounds of quantitative easing, and now The US market and US economy get to where it is right now.

但这些做法在中国都尚未经过检验。

But none of this sort of has been tested in China.

我认为日本也经历了多轮量化宽松。

I think Japan went through multiple rounds of quantitative easing as well.

所以我认为让中国来检验经济理论是合适的。

So I think it's up to the Chinese to experiment economic theory.

这在日本有效，但可能不适合中国。

It works in Japan, but it may not work for China.

而且中国一直在探索自己刺激经济的方式。

And also the Chinese has been coming up with its own way to inflate the economy.

例如，刚才我们提到了正在建设的‘十大项目’。

For example, just now we mentioned the Big 10 project that is being built.

所以让我们拭目以待。

So let's wait and see.

我认为理查德提出的第二个关键观点是汇率调整，他也认为人民币被严重低估。

I think the second key point that Richard made a currency adjustment, he also believed that the Chinese currency is substantially undervalued.

因此，借鉴广场协议的经验，他认为将人民币升值约10%，有助于解决贸易顺差问题。

And so borrowing from the Plaza Accord experience, he believed that by appreciating the Chinese yuan by, let's say, 10%, it could help solve the trade surplus problem.

因此，一旦你开始减少贸易顺差，贸易摩擦就会变得更加可控，因为现在中国正在努力购买外国商品，试图通过进口来减少贸易顺差。

And therefore, once you start to reduce your trade surplus, then the trade friction will become more manageable, you know, because now that the Chinese are trying to buy foreign goods, are trying to import foreign goods to decrease the trace surplus.

所以我认为这有一定道理，但你知道，我们现在已经看到了差不多10%的升值，然而中国在二月份再次创下创纪录的贸易顺差这一事实并未改变。

So I think it does have a point, but I think, you know, 10% appreciation, which we now have already seen, more or less, has not changed the fact that China is once again making record breaking three surplus in February.

所以我认为10%的升值是不够的。

So I think 10% is not gonna do it.

刚才我提到，人民币至少被低估了40%。

Just now, I mentioned that the Chinese yen is at least 40% undervalued.

明白吗？

Alright?

所以我们现在是6.8，再上涨40%，就会降到五以下。

So let's say we're now at 6.8, another 40%, so it would get us to below five.

同时别忘了，很多年前，在八十年代，美元对人民币的汇率是1比1.6或1.8。

And also keep in mind that many years ago, back in the eighties, the US dollar to Chinese exchange rate is one to 1.6 or 1.8.

对吧？

Right?

所以那时的汇率远低于现在，或者人民币要强得多。

So that was substantially lower than what it is now, or the Chinese yen is substantially stronger.

所以我认为中国现在有能力这么做，因为我们已经积累了大量储蓄。

So I think China has the luxury to do it now because now we have saved so much.

我们有着巨大的贸易顺差，同时中国出口商也积累了大量的海外美元储蓄。

We have a tremendous trade surplus, And also there's a tremendous offshore US dollar saving by the Chinese exporter as well.

一旦出口商开始将这些海外美元汇回境内账户，你可以想象人民币升值的压力将会非常大。

And once the exporters start to remit those offshore dollars back to onshore accounts, then you can imagine the pressure on the yuan appreciation would be quite significant.

所以我认为，是的，我们非常希望看到人民币大幅升值。

So I think, yeah, we would love to see a strong yuan appreciation.

我们认为这在一定程度上支持了人民币的重估。

We believe that it served as a sort of a support for the Chinese revaluation.

但我觉得现在人民币能以多快的速度升值，实际上取决于中国人民银行如何把握节奏。

But I think right now, you know, how fast the yuan can appreciate really depends on how the p b o z is gonna pace it.

对吧？

Right?

因为中国人民银行是市场上人民币汇率的关键主导因素。

Because p b o z is the key dominant factor for the Chinese yuan currency in the market.

我认为中国人民银行试图管理升值的速度，而不是方向。

I would say that the p b o z is trying to manage the pace of appreciation rather than the direction.

所以我认为到目前为止，中国人民银行对人民币升值一直持宽容态度，如果今年人民币汇率达到6.5的水平，也不应感到意外。

So I think p b o z has been very tolerant on the yuan appreciation so far, and one should be too surprised to see if the yuan gets to 6.5 level sometime this year.

有意思。

Interesting.

非常有意思。

Very interesting.

我们都同意，金融投资者，包括我们自己，对人民币升值的方向有很高的信心。

We both agree that the direction of the yuan appreciation has pretty high confidence from financial investors, including us.

但我猜我们会观察升值速度如何调整，而这显然也会受到市场情绪和风险规避的影响，尤其是中东战争仍在持续。

But I guess we will observe how the pace will be adjusted, and, obviously, that would be subject to the market sentiment risk aversion as well, especially that the war is still going in The Middle East.

总之，今天我们讨论的内容就这些，非常感谢郝先生的分享。

Anyway, that's pretty much all we have to discuss today, and thank you very much, Hao, for your sharing.

女士们、先生们，感谢收听，敬请关注我们的下一期播客。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for listening, and stay tuned for our next podcast.

再见，我们很快再聊。

Goodbye, and speak soon.

谢谢，理查德。

Thanks, Richard.

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