Winners and losers of Q2 2026

欢迎收听本周三7月1日的《Moving Markets》播客，我是主持人贝纳黛特·安德科。

Welcome to the Moving Markets podcast on Wednesday, July 1, with me, Bernadette Anderko.

今天早上，我很高兴邀请到我们的固定收益研究分析师艾琳妮·特塞基杜，来和我们聊聊当前债券收益率的走势及其背后的原因。

This morning, I'm delighted to welcome our Fixed Income Research Analyst, Eirini Tsekeridou, to the podcast to talk about the direction of bond yields and what's driving them now.

不过在那之前，和往常一样，我们先来回顾一下过去24小时最新的金融市场动态。

But first, as ever, we'll get up to speed on the latest financial markets news from the last twenty four hours.

今天，我的同事卢贾·察库洛维奇会和我一起在演播室做这期播报。

And today, my colleague, Lucija Caculovic, joins me in the studio for that.

早上好，卢贾。

Good morning, Lucija.

早上好，贝纳黛特。

Good morning, Bernadette.

昨天标志着一个波动剧烈但非常有意思的季度结束了。

Now yesterday marked the end of a very volatile but interesting quarter.

我们不妨深入看看各个资产类别表现如何，先从大宗商品和石油说起。

Why don't we dive a bit into the different asset classes and see how they fared, starting with commodities and oil?

我注意到油价在本季度末大幅下跌，你能详细说说吗？

I saw oil prices ending the quarter with substantial losses, so perhaps you could elaborate on that.

是的。

Yeah.

这是自2020年初以来最严重的月度和季度跌幅，即便此前几个月还因伊朗局势动荡而备受干扰。

Also, its deepest monthly and quarterly decline since early twenty twenty, even after months of disruption linked to the Iran conflict.

如今油价已回落至冲突升级前的水平，表明市场对供应中断的担忧正在缓解。

Prices have now drifted back to pre escalation levels, suggesting supply fears have eased.

投资者显然在考虑外交进展的可能性，尤其是当前正在进行的谈判，不过报道称，这些谈判尚未升级到高层会晤阶段。

Investors are clearly factoring in the possibility of diplomatic progress, specifically the currently ongoing talks, though as reports indicate those talks aren't progressing to high level meetings just yet.

此外，摩根士丹利的分析师预测，到2027年，全球石油市场将出现每日近500万桶的过剩。

But adding to this news, analysts at Morgan Stanley are now forecasting a global oil market surplus of nearly 5,000,000 barrels per day in 2027.

昨天的数据还显示，美国石油产量创下历史新高，进一步压低了油价。

And data yesterday showed that US oil production reached record highs, further contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

所以，地缘政治紧张缓解加上供应增加，这倒也说得通。

So easing geopolitical anxieties coupled with increased supply, I guess that makes sense.

不过我们来看看贵金属，黄金这个季度表现特别糟糕。

Turning to precious metals though, gold had a particularly rough quarter.

是什么导致了这种下跌呢？

What drove that decline?

你说得对，伯纳黛特。

Well, you're right, Bernadette.

黄金经历了十三年来最差的一个季度。

Gold had its worst quarterly performance in thirteen years.

虽然地缘政治紧张局势持续存在，这看起来可能有点反直觉，但真正主导走势的是货币政策。

That might seem counterintuitive given ongoing geopolitical tensions, but monetary policy has been the key driver.

市场预期美国联邦储备系统会将利率维持在高位更长时间，甚至可能进一步加息。

Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, possibly even raising them further.

由于黄金不产生收益，利率上升会让它相比有利息的资产失去吸引力。

And since gold doesn't yield income, higher rates make it less attractive compared to interest bearing assets.

因此，仅在六月一个月内，金价就下跌了超过百分之十一，其他贵金属如白银、铂金和钯金也表现低迷。

As a result, prices fell more than 11% in June alone, and other precious metals like silver, platinum and palladium also struggled.

好的。

Alright.

那我们来看看股市吧，情绪明显更乐观，尤其是在欧洲。

Why don't we turn our attention to equities where the mood seems far more upbeat, especially in Europe?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Absolutely.

欧洲股市这个季度表现非常突出。

So European equities had a standout quarter.

欧洲斯托克600指数在三个月内上涨了约10%，创下五年多来的最佳表现。

The stock 600 rose about 10% over the three months, marking its best performance in over five years.

这场涨势主要得益于市场对人工智能的热切期待。

The rally has been largely powered by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

科技股无疑是领涨板块。

And so technology stocks were the clear leaders.

它们实现了自2001年以来最强劲的季度涨幅，充分说明了人工智能这一主题的影响力有多强。

They posted their strongest quarterly gains since 2001, which really underlines just how powerful the AI theme has become.

此外，伯纳黛特，中东局势缓和以及随之而来的油价下跌，也带动了旅游和休闲等行业。

But furthermore, Bernadette, the easing of tensions in The Middle East and the subsequent fall in oil prices benefited sectors like travel and leisure.

那美国市场呢，卢奇娅？

So what about The US market, Lucija?

我们听说‘七巨头’最近有些回落。

We heard about the Magnificent Seven losing some ground.

是的，这个月投资者开始质疑人工智能的巨额投入何时能带来回报，‘七巨头’的总市值因此缩水了约2.3万亿美元。

Yeah, the Magnificent Seven have lost around 2,300,000,000,000 in value this month as investors question the heavy spending on AI and when it will translate into returns.

虽然微软和英伟达等公司的股价明显下跌，但半导体行业整体依然表现得非常坚韧。

While some names like Microsoft and NVIDIA have declined notably, the semiconductor industry itself remains remarkably resilient.

事实上，费城半导体指数这个月的表现反而超过了‘七巨头’，今年迄今涨幅已经超过100%。

In fact, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has actually outperformed the MAX seven this month, and it has rallied over 100% year to date.

这说明投资者更倾向于选择那些直接从人工智能基础设施建设中受益的公司，而不仅仅是盯着那几家大型科技平台。

This suggests investors are favoring companies directly benefiting from the AI build out rather than solely focusing on the large tech platforms themselves.

明白了。

Okay.

那除了科技股之外，美国整体市场怎么样？

So what about the broader US market beyond tech?

是的，整体市场表现相当稳健。

Yeah, the wider market has been quite resilient.

标普500和道琼斯指数今年上半年都涨了8%以上，而纳斯达克综合指数更是上涨了12%多。

Major indices like the S and P five hundred and Dow Jones are up more than 8% for the first half of the year, while the NASDAQ Composite has advanced over 12%.

不过表现最突出的还是小盘股板块。

The standout performer, though, is the small cap space.

罗素2000指数今年迄今已上涨超过21%，创下自1991年以来上半年的最佳表现。

The Russell two thousand has gained more than 21% so far this year, marking its best first half performance since 1991.

同样，人工智能在这里也发挥了作用。

And again, AI plays a role here.

这波涨势已经蔓延到更广泛的中小型供应商和基础设施公司。

The rally has spread to a wider ecosystem of smaller suppliers and infrastructure players.

好的，那我们来聊聊宏观形势吧，卢贾？

Okay, why don't we bring in the macro picture then, Lucija?

在美国，昨天的数据表明职位空缺升至两年来最高水平，说明劳动力需求依然强劲，加上最近就业人数有所增加。

So in The US, data yesterday showed job openings rising to a two year high, suggesting that labour demand remains resilient alongside a recent pickup in payroll growth.

但看看欧洲，最新的通胀数据似乎正在为央行的决策定调，对吧？

But looking at Europe, fresh inflation data appears to be setting the tone for central banks, right?

没错。

Indeed.

欧元区的最新数据相当令人鼓舞。

And the latest figures from the Eurozone are quite encouraging.

在德国、法国和意大利等主要经济体，通胀回落的幅度超过了预期。

Inflation slowed more than expected in key economies like Germany, France and Italy.

比如法国，通胀率直接降到了欧洲央行2%的目标水平。

France, for instance, saw inflation drop right to the European Central Bank's 2% target.

这种降温趋势减轻了欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策的压力。

And this cooling trend reduces the pressure on the ECB to tighten monetary policy further.

不过话说回来，西班牙的通胀仍然偏高，是个例外，但整体趋势很清楚——通胀正在缓解。

Now that said, Spain remains an outlier with inflation still relatively elevated, but overall the direction of travel is clear, inflation is easing.

好的，但说到昨晚的动态，日元兑美元跌到了创40年新低，尽管一项调查显示，大型制造企业的景气情绪已升至六年多来的最高水平。

Okay, but turning to overnight developments, Japan's yen slid to a fresh forty year low against the dollar, even as a survey showed sentiment among large manufacturers improving to its highest level in more than six years.

那还有什么其他让你注意的吗？

But what else caught your eye?

嗯，今天的信息量挺大的。

Well, there was quite a bit to digest.

在中国，最新的制造业PMI显示，工厂刚经历了近六年来的最佳季度，不过改善的速度已经开始放缓。

In China, the latest manufacturing PMI showed that factories just wrapped up their best quarter in nearly six years, although the pace of improvement is starting to pull slightly.

另外，韩国也公布了一些引人注目的数据。

And then we had some eye catching numbers out of South Korea.

六月份，韩国出口同比飙升超过70%，创下1978年以来最快增速。

Exports surged by more than 70% year on year in June, marking the fastest growth since 1978.

所以，是的，今天的数据确实相当亮眼，伯纳黛特。

So, yes, some really striking figures in today's show, Bernadette.

是的

Yeah.

确实如此

Indeed.

事情可真不少

Plenty going on.

再看看市场，今天早上亚太地区的股市涨跌不一

And looking at the markets, stocks across Asia Pacific are trading mixed this morning.

日本和印度上涨，中国走势分化，韩国和澳大利亚则承压

Japan and India higher, China more mixed, and South Korea and Australia are under pressure.

不过不管怎样，投资者今天该关注什么？

But looking ahead anyway, what should investors focus on today?

是啊，今天内容很满

Yeah, today is packed.

我们会有瑞士零售销售数据和制造业PMI，还有英国和欧元区的制造业PMI

We have Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMIs alongside UK and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs.

关键的是，我们将公布欧元区的初步消费者价格指数数据，这能进一步反映通胀压力。

Crucially, we will get the preliminary Eurozone CPI reading, providing further insight into inflationary pressures.

而在美国方面，我们将看到ADP就业报告和ISI制造业PMI，这些数据能揭示美国经济的健康状况。

But on The US side, we will get the ADP employment report and ISI manufacturing PMI, which will offer clues about the health of The US economy.

此外，欧洲央行论坛上还有几位发言者，包括克里斯蒂娜·拉加德和凯文·沃尔什。

And finally, we have several speakers at the ECB Forum, including Christine Lagarde and Kevin Walsh.

再看期货市场，美国股指期货目前处于下跌区间。

And looking at the futures board, US futures are currently trading in the red.

咱们就看看这个新季度开局会怎么样。

So let's see how we will start this new quarter.

是的。

Yeah.

明天的节目肯定有不少内容可以聊。

And we'll certainly have a lot to talk about in tomorrow's show.

非常感谢你今天早上带来的新闻更新，卢吉娅。

Thank you very much for the news update this morning, Lucija.

谢谢您邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

正如我一开始在播客里答应你的，现在我们来聊聊债券市场。

And now, as I promised you at the start of the podcast, it's time to turn the talk to bond markets.

早上好，Eirini，很高兴你今天能来参加。

Good morning to you, Eirini, and thank you for joining me today.

早上好，Bernadette。

Good morning, Bernadette.

谢谢您邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

油价又回到了每桶70美元以下，接近今年二月底伊朗战争爆发前的水平。

So oil prices back below $70 a barrel, very close to levels that prevailed at the end of February prior to the start of the war in Iran.

但十年期美国国债收益率仍比那时高出约40个基点。

However, ten year US treasury yields remain some 40 basis points above the levels that prevailed back then.

那为什么收益率没有跟着回落呢？

So why haven't yields come down too?

是的

Yeah.

原因在于，利率市场已经不再关注油价，而是回归到更大的宏观经济问题上。

The reason for this is that rate markets have stopped trading oil, and they have returned to the bigger macroeconomic question.

人工智能对经济增长、通胀和美联储意味着什么？

What does AI mean for growth, for inflation, for the Fed?

在

At the

二月底的时候，大家普遍认为人工智能会导致就业减少，从而促使美联储降息。

end of February, the narrative was that we would have AI driven labor displacement and Fed easing.

但现在这个说法完全反转了。

And now this narrative has flipped.

我们现在讨论的是人工智能推动的企业资本支出、持续高通胀，以及中期加息的风险。

We are talking about AI led CapEx, sticky inflation and the risk of mid cycle hikes.

我们并不完全认同这种市场重新定价的观点。

We do not fully subscribe to this repricing.

更广泛的劳动力市场指标，其实没有最近的就业数据表现得那么强劲。

Broader labour market measures look less strong than recent payroll prints are suggesting.

如果我们判断正确，市场开始消化美联储不再加息的预期，那么整个收益率曲线都该下行。

And if our view comes to fruition and markets start pricing out the risk of Fed hikes, then Treasury yields should drop along the curve.

所以，这一轮变动跟国债供需关系其实没关系？

So this move has not been about Treasury supply demand factors then?

没错。

Exactly.

每当收益率没有像预期那样下降时，人们就容易归因于国债的供需平衡问题。

So whenever yields fail to drop, when we would otherwise expect them to do so, it's tempting to tell a story about the supply demand equilibrium for Treasuries.

毕竟，美国现在还有6%的财政赤字需要融资。

After all, The US still has a 6% deficit to finance.

但在当前环境下，我们没看到任何这方面的迹象。

But we see no evidence of this in the current environment.

我们看到的是十年期国债的期限溢价正在回落。

We are seeing the ten year ten premium falling.

我们看到收益率曲线变平了。

We are seeing curve flattening.

同时，短期波动率仍然偏高，但长期来看，波动范围非常狭窄。

We are also seeing volatility remaining higher, but at the front end, while further out, it is extremely range bound.

这一切都表明，市场定价的主要是美联储的不确定性，而不是国债本身的不确定性。

And this all means that markets are pricing in Fed uncertainty, not so much Treasury uncertainty.

这一观点的关键在于，凯文·沃尔什在FOMC会议后的首次新闻发布会，缓解了人们对美联储独立性的担忧，这动摇了美元贬值论的一个重要支柱。

And key to this story is, of course, Kevin Walsh's inaugural press conference at the FOMC meeting that rested the Fed independence concern, and this removes a key pillar for the dollar debasement argument.

所以总的来说，市场对国债发行并不太担心。

So, overall, markets are not that worried about Treasury issuance.

好的，那接下来我们怎么看呢，艾琳妮？

Okay, so where do we go from here then, Eirini?

关于人工智能对劳动力市场和通胀影响的讨论，仍将继续决定美联储政策和国债收益率的走向。

The evolution of the thinking on the AI impact on labour market and inflation indeed will continue to determine the path for Fed policy and Treasury yields.

这是一个非常复杂的议题。

It's a highly complex debate.

随着新信息的出现，我们的看法还会继续调整。

Our thinking will continue to evolve as we get new information.

但目前来看，虽然人工智能建设在今后几年可能推高通胀，但从长远看，这项技术最终会降低整体经济的通胀压力，提升生产率，同时导致部分劳动力被取代。

But at this stage, we think that while the inflationary impact of the AI build out might dominate in the next couple of years, this technology ultimately should prove deflationary to the broader economy in the longer term, raise productivity and lead to some labour market displacement.

综合这些因素，我们依然保持对长期债券的超配，并更倾向于五年到十年期的收益率曲线部分。

So putting all these pieces together, we keep our overweight duration and we have a preference for the five to ten year part of the curve.

非常好。

Super.

非常感谢你今天的分享，Eirini。

Thank you very much for the update today, Eirini.

很高兴你能来参加节目。

Lovely to have you on the show.

谢谢你的邀请，Bernadette。

Thank you for having me, Bernadette.

嗯，

Well,

今天的播客就到这里了。

that concludes today's podcast.

感谢Eirini和Lucija今天做客，也感谢各位的收听。

My thanks to Eirini and Lucija for joining me today and of course to you for listening.

别忘了明天再来听我们聊聊影响市场的最新动态。

Please do tune in again tomorrow to catch up with what's moving markets then.

meanwhile，祝你今天顺利，我们暂时再见。

And meanwhile, good luck today, and goodbye for now.

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The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

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