My First Million - 我的投资组合中有25%是被高估的一只股票,以下是原因 封面

我的投资组合中有25%是被高估的一只股票,以下是原因

25% Of My Portfolio Is One Overvalued Stock, Here's Why

本集简介

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双语字幕

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Speaker 0

现在这个世界发生的事简直太疯狂了。

There's something insane going on in the world right now.

Speaker 0

这简直就是《黑镜》。

This is Black Mirror.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

这是亚马逊Prime推出的新剧,讲的是科技如何掌控世界,然后一切都再也回不去了。

This is like Amazon Prime's original new series about how tech, like, you know, takes over the world and then the world's never the same again.

Speaker 1

你知道吗

Do you

Speaker 0

Hal Finney是谁吗?

know who Hal Finney is?

Speaker 1

在《纽约时报》那篇文章出来之前,我一直以为他是比特币的创造者,但他已经去世了。

The man who, up until the New York Times article, I thought was the guy who created Bitcoin, but he's dead.

Speaker 0

所以,也许他就是中本聪,比特币的发明者;但就算不是,他也绝对是第一个收到比特币的人——而且是直接从比特币创造者那里收到的。

So may, you know, he may have been Satoshi Nakamoto, the guy who created Bitcoin, but if he even if he wasn't, he was definitely the first person to ever receive Bitcoin from the creator of Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

他还是个元老级的密码学家,等等。

And he's a OG cryptographer, etcetera.

Speaker 1

比特币的奠基人之一。

A a founding father.

Speaker 0

比特币的奠基人。

Founding father of Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

这么说真好,我很认同。

Love that's a great way to put it.

Speaker 0

昨晚我看了他的旧博客,他去世了,具体多久我也不太记得了。

So I was on his old blog last night, and he died I don't know.

Speaker 0

他十年前就因渐冻症去世了。

He died, like, ten plus years ago of ALS.

Speaker 0

就是那种特别可怕的卢·格里克病。

You know, this, like, terrible Lou Gehrig's disease.

Speaker 0

我去找了他宣布确诊渐冻症时写的那篇博客,读了一遍。

I went and read the blog post when he announced when he was just like sharing that he got diagnosed with ALS.

Speaker 0

那时候他看起来状态特别好。

And he was feeling totally fine at the time.

Speaker 0

我后来在评论区看到一件事。

And I just saw this thing in the comments.

Speaker 1

真是挺奇怪的。

It was so weird.

Speaker 0

就像现在看那些名人,但回看他们年轻时上迪士尼节目那时候的样子。

It was like watching, you know, famous people today, but in some like, when they were, like, on the Disney show and they're, like, young or whatever.

Speaker 0

你懂我的意思吧。

You know what I mean?

Speaker 0

那时候他还不是名人。

It's like, he wasn't famous at this time.

Speaker 0

他只是在自己一个小个人网站上写博客。

He's blogging on his own little personal website.

Speaker 0

第一条评论是个 guy,现在他可是 AI 领域最悲观的人了。

And then the first comment is from this guy, whatever, who today is really famous for basically he's the biggest doomer on AI.

Speaker 0

所以他第一个留言,说:你有没有了解过低温冷冻?

So he he's the first comment, and he's like, have you looked into cryogenics?

Speaker 0

然后哈尔回复:有啊。

And then Hal responds, yes.

Speaker 0

我其实早就开始和阿尔科公司合作,准备冷冻我的身体了。

I actually have already I'm I'm I'm working with Alcor to freeze my body.

Speaker 0

你知道这事儿真有人在做,而且整个流程是怎么回事吗?

Did you know that this is actually a thing that happens and how this all works?

Speaker 1

对啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我知道是因为《恶搞之家》拿这个开过玩笑。

I knew it because Family Guy made fun of it.

Speaker 1

你知道泰德·威廉姆斯是谁吗?

Isn't Ted will do you know who Ted Williams is?

Speaker 1

就是那位著名的棒球选手。

The famous, basically.

Speaker 0

泰德·威廉姆斯。

Ted Williams.

Speaker 0

泰德·威廉姆斯是最早做这件事的人之一。

Ted Williams was one of the first people to do this.

Speaker 0

他现在被冷冻着。

He's frozen right now.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他被冷冻了。

He's frozen.

Speaker 1

而且我记得好像有个笑话,说华特·迪士尼也搞过这个。

And so and I think that there was a joke that Walt Disney was into it as well.

Speaker 1

基本思路是,人在去世后立即冷冻,指望有一天科技能解决这个问题,让人复活。

But, basically, the idea is you freeze someone when they're dead in hopes that one day we'll solve this, and you can come back to life.

Speaker 0

我们刚才聊到了这家叫Alcor的公司。

So we talked about this company, Alcor.

Speaker 0

所以就是Alcor这家公司。

And so was like, Alcor.

Speaker 0

我本来以为这会是个特别邪恶的大型企业。

And I I was really ready for this to be, like, super evil mega corp.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你付一大笔钱,他们帮你冷冻遗体,然后就不管你了。

Like, free you pay them tons of money and they freeze your body and they're like whatever.

Speaker 0

但结果发现,情况没那么糟,反而更单纯一些。

But it turns out, I think it's a little more innocent than that.

Speaker 0

它是个非营利组织,由一对夫妻创办的,他们读过一本很有影响的书。

It's nonprofit that was started by this this husband and wife couple who they read this book.

Speaker 0

那本书在这一领域影响很大。

There was a book that was published that was very influential in this space.

Speaker 0

书里主要讲,其实现在就能做到一件事——就在人刚去世的那一刻。

It was basically a book that argued that today, you could do this thing, which is right when you die.

Speaker 0

如果你反应够快,就可以在身上直接涂抹类似防冻剂的东西,让身体直接冷冻起来。

If you're very fast acting, you can essentially do put, like, antifreeze on your body so you could freeze your body as is.

Speaker 1

我觉得用的是液氮。

I think it's liquid nitrogen.

Speaker 1

对,就是液氮。

Not it's liquid nitrogen.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

但他们其实还会往血管里注射某种物质,防止细胞受损或者血管塌陷。

But it it functions almost like they they basically inject something in your veins also because they need your cells to not like or like your veins not collapse or something.

Speaker 0

所以他们会这么做。

So they do so.

Speaker 0

先往血管里注入药剂,再用液氮慢慢降温。

Put something in your vein, and then they use liquid nitrogen to cool you down.

Speaker 0

然后你就被低温冷冻, indefinitely 地保存下去。

And then you are cryogenically frozen for indefinitely.

Speaker 0

我一直觉得我好像听说过这个概念。

And I've always thought I had heard of the concept.

Speaker 0

但我真没意识到,这背后竟然是个生意。

I didn't actually fully realize that there's a business behind this.

Speaker 0

你得付二十万美元,然后他们就把你冷冻起来,据我所知,已经有两百多人这么做了。

You pay $200,000 and you're frozen and that, you know, they've frozen I think 200 people have done it.

Speaker 0

两百多人吧,已经这么做了。

200 something people have done it.

Speaker 0

有一千五百多人跟Alcor公司签了协议,说等我死了就把我冷冻。

1,500 people have are working with Alcor saying freeze me when I die.

Speaker 0

只不过他们现在还活着,还没死呢。

They just haven't died yet.

Speaker 0

所以我之前根本没想到,这事儿居然真有人在做。

So I didn't realize, like, it's a thing.

Speaker 0

这简直是个正经生意,人们得花钱才能参与,光是冷冻脑袋就要八万美元,全身冷冻则要二十万。

It's like a a business that exists that people pay for, and, you know, it's it's $80,000 just to freeze the head, and it's $200 to freeze the whole body.

Speaker 0

而且在你去世前,每年还得交一百美元来保留名额,背后还真有一整套运作体系。

And then you, you know, before you die, you pick up a $100 a year to save your spot, and there's, like, this whole operation behind it.

Speaker 0

所以这已经是第一个让我觉得特别有意思的事了。

So that was, like, already fascinating thing number one.

Speaker 0

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 0

这让我忍不住深入去了解了一番,毕竟我就是个再普通不过的人。

So this kinda led me down a little bit of a rabbit hole of, like, I'm like a hyper normal guy.

Speaker 0

我平时根本不会碰这些边缘话题,压根没想过自己会去干这种事。

Like, I don't really do that much fringe stuff, and I would have never considered doing this.

Speaker 0

但我最近看了很多关于人工智能的这类故事。

But I've been reading a lot of these stories with AI.

Speaker 0

我们在这档播客里聊过一些,比如那个治好了自己狗狗癌症的人。

We talked about some of them on this podcast about like the guy who cured his dog's cancer.

Speaker 0

然后你提到GitLab的创始人,他用人工智能和高度个性化的靶向治疗治好了自己的癌症。

And then you brought up the founder of GitLab who cured his own cancer using AI in hyper personalized targeted medicine.

Speaker 1

他正在尝试。

He's trying to.

Speaker 1

他正在尝试。

He's trying to.

Speaker 0

不,他已经治好了。

No, he did.

Speaker 0

现在病情已经缓解了。

It's in remission.

Speaker 1

真的吗?他治好了?

Oh, he did?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

他确实做到了。

He did it.

Speaker 0

对了,我这边已经掌握了全部最新进展。

Oh, by way, I have, like, the whole whole update on it.

Speaker 0

这事儿太惊人了。

It's crazy.

Speaker 0

我真想请他来做个访谈。

I really wanna have him on.

Speaker 0

咱们先别急着聊这个,等会儿再说。

It's a it's a let's go to that in a second.

Speaker 0

这简直太离谱了。

This is it's wild.

Speaker 0

我最近一头扎进去了,深挖了一番。

I just, like, went down the rabbit hole.

Speaker 0

我一直在关注这事,说白了,就是这样。

So I've been seeing this, and it's like, okay.

Speaker 0

未来三十年,AI完全有可能找到治愈多种疾病的方法,甚至让冷冻保存的人复活,或者把人的意识上传到某种大型语言模型里——这其实一点都不荒谬。

Like, it's not crazy that in the next thirty years that AI is gonna figure out how to, like, cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive or to, like, upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of, like, LLM.

Speaker 0

对我来说,这已经不觉得离谱了。

Like, that's not like crazy to me now.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

不过呢,我总收到这类视频。

Don't Well, so the I always get these videos.

Speaker 1

我经常在Instagram上看到特别感人的视频。

I get like emotional videos on Instagram all the time.

Speaker 1

我最喜欢的一个视频,是家属见到心脏移植受赠者的场景——比如,如果我的孩子、丈夫或妻子去世了,

And like one of my favorite videos is when a family meets the recipient of the heart of like, for example, if my,

Speaker 0

捐赠者。

like Donor.

Speaker 1

然后我能把耳朵贴在那颗心脏上听它跳动,每次我都感动得不行。

Kid or husband or, wife died, and I get to and I get to put my ear on the heart and hear, it always makes me emotional.

Speaker 1

所以我就想,天啊。

And so I'm like, oh, man.

Speaker 1

在这么糟糕的情况下,这真是最大的馈赠了。

That's like the greatest gift in a bad situation.

Speaker 1

我很喜欢这一点,但我更希望自己能健健康康地活着,而不是经历这样的事。

So I do love that, but I'd much rather be alive than that situation.

Speaker 1

是的。

So yeah.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

确实如此。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

不是的。

No.

Speaker 0

但话说回来,好吧。

But like, okay.

Speaker 0

你的意思是,是啊,但你从来没想过这一点。

You're saying, yeah, but you've never thought about this.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你其实根本没往这个方向迈出过一步。

You're not actually you've never taken a step in this direction.

Speaker 0

你真有想过,嗯,

Have you actually been like, yeah.

Speaker 0

那我会打算去做。

That would be something I plan to do.

Speaker 0

就是,你知道的,我不想

Like, you know, I don't wanna

Speaker 1

我唯一做过的就是之前读过这篇维基百科。

The only step that I've made is I've read this Wikipedia before.

Speaker 0

好吧。

Okay.

Speaker 0

所以,门是开着的。

So, like The door's open.

Speaker 2

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

不远。

Not far.

Speaker 1

就是这扇门。

It's the door.

Speaker 1

我之前做过一些初步了解,就是我搜了你提到的内容,结果链接是紫色的。

There's been some prelim like, when I went when I googled what you said, the link was purple.

Speaker 1

我点过了。

I'd clicked it.

Speaker 1

在这档节目里,我们花了好几个小时,采访了当今一些最顶尖的投资者。

On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive.

Speaker 1

对你来说幸运的是,HubSpot 的团队把最重要的原则提炼出来,做成了一份简单易读的财富指南。

Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easy to read wealth guide.

Speaker 1

这是来自顶尖投资者的35条原则。

It's 35 principles from the top investors.

Speaker 1

我们聊的都是上过节目的人,比如霍华德·马克斯、马尼什·帕尔·布雷、摩根·豪塞尔、凯西·伍德,还有好多其他大牛。

We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard Marks, Manish Parr Bray, Morgan Housel, Kathy Wood, and a ton others.

Speaker 1

这些全是他们的思维框架、认知模型和准则,说白了就是怎么玩转长期游戏,怎么避开毁灭性错误。

So these are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules, basically how to play the long game and how to avoid ruin.

Speaker 1

你可以在下面的链接里获取这份指南。

You can get it in the link below.

Speaker 0

这让我忍不住深挖了一下。

So this led me down a little bit of rabbit hole.

Speaker 0

然后我就看到了那段埃隆的视频。

Then I saw this Elon clip.

Speaker 3

我觉得这个问题其实完全可以解决。

I I do think it is a very solvable problem.

Speaker 3

一旦我们搞清楚了衰老的根源,我相信答案会简单得让人惊讶。

When we find figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious.

Speaker 3

不是。

No.

Speaker 3

这可不是什么微妙的事。

It's not a subtle thing.

Speaker 3

我说这不是微妙的事,是因为你身体里的所有细胞几乎都是以同样的速度衰老。

The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate.

Speaker 3

那这是为什么呢?

So why is that?

Speaker 3

这说明一定有一个时钟,一个同步的时钟,对吧?

It it it that that means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock Right.

Speaker 3

它在你身体里三百亿亿个细胞之间同步运作。

That is synchronizing across 35,000,000,000,000 cells in your body.

Speaker 0

你以前看过这个片段吗?

So have you ever seen this clip before?

Speaker 1

没有。

No.

Speaker 1

我没想到他居然在意这个。

I didn't know that he cared about that.

Speaker 0

那人就只是问他一个问题。

The guy just asked him a question.

Speaker 0

他说,我从来没花时间去仔细研究过这个。

He's like, well, I've never I haven't spent time, like, looking into it.

Speaker 0

这并不是我目前在关注的重点。

It's not, like, it's not one of my missions I'm on right now.

Speaker 0

但他后来说了这么一句:你知道的,只要埃隆说了什么,大家多多少少都会留意一下。

But then he said this thing, which is like, you know, if Elon says something, you sort of pay a little bit of attention.

Speaker 0

所以他意思是,我觉得这问题应该是能解决的,那个难题其实很明显。

So he's saying, you know, I suspect it's solvable that the salute that, you know, the problem is obvious.

Speaker 0

这种想法挺根本的——既然你全身的细胞都差不多同时老化,那肯定有个时钟在同步着。

And the reason why that was, like, a pretty first principle way of thinking about it, which is, like, there's gotta be a clock because your entire body is aging at this, you know, roughly the same rate.

Speaker 0

如果身体是同步运作的,那就意味着这个时钟也许是可以被调整的。

And if your body's synchronized, that means if there's a clock, maybe the clock can be changed.

Speaker 0

也许你可以拨动时钟的指针,减缓衰老,甚至逆转衰老,或者调到另一个时间点。

Maybe you could turn turn the the hands of the clock and slow down the aging or reverse the aging or set it to a different time.

Speaker 0

而且,你也看到了,干细胞治疗和多肽领域已经有了不少进展。

And, you know, we've seen this with, stem cell treatment and peptide.

Speaker 0

现在这方面的研究可不少。

There's all this stuff going on.

Speaker 0

所以你会觉得,这挺有意思的。

And so you're like, that's interesting.

Speaker 0

说不定真有什么门道。

Maybe there's something there.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,他解释了为什么没怎么关注这个问题——在他看来,衰老和死亡根本不是缺陷,而是一种设计。

And so by the way, the reason he does say why he hasn't spent much time on this, and it's pretty he's he's basically like, aging slash death is like a feature, not a bug.

Speaker 0

他说,如果人能长生不老,社会就会僵化。

So he's like, if people live forever, society will, like, ossify.

Speaker 0

因为掌权的都是年纪最大的人,而年纪最大的人最不愿意改变。

Because, like, the people in charge will be the oldest people, and the oldest people want the least change.

Speaker 0

进步和变革往往来自一种新陈代谢的思维,也就是淘汰旧的、迎来新的,这种理念本身就带着一种实实在在的更替感。

And like progress and change comes from some like an out with the old, in with the new mentality, which comes like with a with a physicality of out with the old, in with the new.

Speaker 1

你确实可以笑话我,我承认我活该。

So I I you make fun of me a little bit, and it's deserving.

Speaker 1

因为我老是吹嘘,说Brian告诉我,我们是他第一次接受的媒体采访。

I because I brag about how I think that we when Brian he told me, we were the first media appearance Brian Johnson has ever done.

Speaker 1

我为此特别自豪,因为如果你抛开这件事表面的荒唐,不只看别人怎么取笑他。

And I take a lot of pride in that because if you go and get past like the silliness of the whole thing and how easy it is to like tease him for what he's doing.

Speaker 1

如果你真去读他的博客,就会发现他做的事简直不可思议。

If you actually go and read his blog, it is like pretty miraculous, some of the stuff that he's doing.

Speaker 1

他现在的样子确实容易让人笑话。

And the way that he looks, it's to, I mean, it's easy to make fun of him.

Speaker 1

但只要你稍微认真看看他做的那些事,就能意识到其中可能蕴含着巨大的好处。

Like, seems quite amazing that if you just take a little bit of what he's doing, there could be benefits.

Speaker 1

我刚预约了一位高端医生,去见了面——这是我第一次遇到一位医生,没对他的做法嗤之以鼻。

I just signed up for a fancy doctor and I went, and this was the first time that I've met a doctor where they didn't not laugh at him.

Speaker 1

我以前跟每个医生聊起他,他们都会说,这人疯了。

Every doctor that I've ever talked to, they'll been like, oh, that guy's crazy.

Speaker 1

觉得这事儿太荒唐了。

Like, know, this is stupid.

Speaker 1

就像你我之前做的那些预防性核磁共振检查一样。

Same with like the the things that you and I did where you the the preventative MRIs.

Speaker 1

叫什么来着,预防性核磁。

Prenuclear.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

是啊,别人听了都会笑。

Yeah, they like laugh at them.

Speaker 1

他们说,这容易引发太多假阳性结果。

They're like, well, it just sets off so many potentially false alarms.

Speaker 1

我说,这确实是缺点,但也正因如此,才更显得了不起。

I'm like, that's the downside and that's why you don't wanna That's do incredible.

Speaker 1

这有点傻。

That's kind of silly.

Speaker 1

但我想说的是,越来越多的人开始接受这个观点,确实挺有意思的。

But my point being is I do think that a lot of people are coming around to this and it is quite interesting.

Speaker 1

当别人说疾病和衰老是可以解决的,我觉得这就像一句空话,完全超出了我的理解范围。

It's way out of my IQ level to, when people say disease and aging is solvable, I think that's like a platitude.

Speaker 1

听着是挺酷的,但我实在搞不懂,因为我对这东西一无所知。

That sounds cool, but it's too hard for me to understand because I just don't know anything about it.

Speaker 1

不过确实挺让人感兴趣的。

But it is like interesting.

Speaker 1

我想知道,在历史上,有没有哪一回,地球上最富有的人——现在他们比以往任何时候都更富有——有这么多人把这当成自己的使命。

I wonder if in the history of the world has the richest people on Earth, which now they are richer than potentially ever before, that many of them have made this their cause.

Speaker 0

你听说过奥布里·德·格雷这个人吗?

Have you ever heard of this guy Aubrey De Grey?

Speaker 1

听说过。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他就是做这个研究的人。

He's like the researcher who does this.

Speaker 1

他是个学者。

He's like an academic.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

他已经干这个几十年了。

So he's been doing this for, like, decades.

Speaker 0

我觉得他后来被抵制了,好像因为他对实验室助手有不当举动之类的。

And he kinda got canceled, I think, because he was, like, hitting on his, like, lab assistants or something.

Speaker 0

我不太清楚具体怎么回事。

I don't know what was going on.

Speaker 0

我没说这个人有多好,但他确实是个特别有意思的人。

So I'm not saying this guy's a great guy or whatever, but he's this very fascinating guy.

Speaker 0

他长得像邓布利多。

He looks like Dumbledore.

Speaker 0

他留着一大把灰白胡子,都垂到肚子那儿了。

He's got a huge gray beard, like, you know, down to his belly.

Speaker 1

一看就是个研究员。

Looks like a researcher.

Speaker 0

他就像个看起来特别苍老的抗衰老研究者。

He's like a longevity researcher who looks ancient, essentially.

Speaker 0

他有个理论,如果你曾经深挖过这类话题——我五年前有天晚上就深挖过。

And he's got this theory, which is like his theory, if you've ever gone down the rabbit hole, which I did one night, like, I don't know, five years ago.

Speaker 0

他说死亡根本不是什么谜,人体里有大约十二种因素会导致细胞损伤。

What he said is basically that death is not a mystery, that there's these, like, 12 things that basically cause cell damage.

Speaker 0

说白了就是正常使用造成的磨损。

It's just wear and tear.

Speaker 0

你身体里的细胞就像一辆车,用得越多,积累的损伤就越多,最后损伤够多了,细胞就撑不住了。

Like, your your cells in your body are like a car, and the more you use them, the more they accumulate damage and eventually enough damage, they they die.

Speaker 0

明白吗?

K?

Speaker 0

这可不是什么神的旨意。

It's not like some mandate from God.

Speaker 0

也不是那种我们完全搞不懂的东西。

It's not like, you know, something that we don't understand at all.

Speaker 0

他的观点是,我们其实能看清跟这有关的各种因素。

His his belief is like, actually, we could see the factors that relate to it.

Speaker 0

只要能逆转这些因素,我们就不至于死。

If we could just reverse those factors, then we we wouldn't die.

Speaker 0

他提到的第二点是所谓的‘长寿逃逸速度’,也就是LEV。

The second thing he talks about is like this idea of like longevity longevity escape velocity, L E V.

Speaker 0

你听说过这个说法吗?

Ever heard of this?

Speaker 1

我从来没听过,不过我的理解是,生物年龄的增长速度比实际年龄慢,对吧?

I I've never heard of that, but was that as simple as basically your biological age grows slower than your or sorry, your chronological age grows slower than your biological age.

Speaker 1

我这么解释对吗?

Am I explaining that correctly?

Speaker 0

我觉得你第一次说对了,不过不对,这是个完全不同的概念。

I think you had it right the first time, but no no, this is a different concept.

Speaker 0

他说的有点像那个谈人工智能的雷·库兹韦尔。

But what he says, it's sort of like the that guy Ray Kurzweil who talked about AI.

Speaker 0

他讲过‘奇点’这个概念。

He talked about the singularity.

Speaker 0

他的意思是,总有一天,不再是人类在编程AI,而是AI会自己设计出更智能的下一代AI。

What he meant by that was like, at some point, it won't be the humans that are programming AI, but the AI will program the next AI to be better.

Speaker 0

然后这个更聪明的AI又会设计出下下一代,如此不断迭代,最终引发智能的爆炸式增长。

And then that smart AI will program the next AI to be better, and it'll just keep and then that's when you get this explosion of intelligence.

Speaker 0

但他却说,不是这样的。

And he's like, no.

Speaker 0

你根本无法预测奇点之后会发生什么。

You can't see beyond the singularity.

Speaker 0

因为一旦发生,一切就都失控了——而这,恰恰正是我们正在逼近的局面。

Because once that happens, all bets are off, which is, like, kind of what we're getting close to doing.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,在这些研究实验室里,写模型代码的不只是OpenAI、Claude或者Anthropic那些高薪雇员。

Know, inside these research labs, it's not just the the highly paid people at OpenAI or Claude or whatever, Anthropic, who are coding the models.

Speaker 0

模型自己已经开始提出想法、做实验,甚至编写下一代模型了,这其实已经在部分发生了。

The models are coming up with ideas and running experiments and coding the next models soon, and that's, like, partially happening.

Speaker 0

但一旦完全实现,进步的速度就会呈指数级飙升。

But once that fully happens, the progress the rate of progress will, like, go exponential.

Speaker 0

那增长曲线会像 hockey stick 一样直冲云霄。

It'll hockey stick in a crazy way.

Speaker 1

Claude 做过最牛的一次公关,说这个模型太强大了,我们不能发布。

Claude did the greatest PR release ever, or PR thing where they said, This model is so powerful.

Speaker 1

我们不能发布它。

We can't release it.

Speaker 0

太危险了。

Too dangerous.

Speaker 1

我当时就想,行,我一定要搞到手。

I was like, Okay, I want it.

Speaker 1

是啊,算我一个。

Yeah, like sign me up.

Speaker 1

这简直就是AI界的四洛科酒。

It's like the four locos of AI.

Speaker 1

我听说田纳西州生产的酒精度是11%,但我们俄亥俄州只能买到7%的。

I heard in Tennessee that they make them at 11% alcohol, but we in Ohio, we can only get 7%.

Speaker 1

这个

This

Speaker 0

那个孩子人生中第一次见到如此耀眼的光,心都炸了。

kid had the greatest light of his life and his heart exploded.

Speaker 0

对了,我们做播客也该这么干。

We should do that with a podcast by the way.

Speaker 0

我们就该直接说:这个太危险了,不能放出来。

We should just be like, this one is too dangerous.

Speaker 1

这个我们可以发布。

We can release that.

Speaker 0

我们真的做不到。

We simply cannot.

Speaker 0

抱歉,话说回来,未来会出现这样一个阶段:长寿领域的医学研究能让人寿命延长的速度,超过每年只增加一岁。

Sorry, anyways, the idea of being, gonna be a point where medical research on longevity is adding years to your life faster, like adding more than one year to your lifespan than one year.

Speaker 0

也就是说,关于延长寿命的研究、干预手段、方案以及相关知识的进展速度,会快过你实际年龄增长的速度。

So the research and the interventions and the protocols and the knowledge around extending your life is going faster than your actual chronological age.

Speaker 0

一旦到了那个阶段,你至少能活到几百岁,甚至可能实现永生,这想法听起来挺疯狂的。

And when that happens, then you sort of get at least like multi hundred year lives, if not like, you know, indefinite life, which is like a pretty crazy idea.

Speaker 0

不过我读到那些关于长寿的研究时,总会联想到现在AI的发展轨迹。

But when I read about this longevity stuff, it reminds me of basically what's been going on with AI.

Speaker 0

就像AI这个话题,大家讨论它已经五十多年了。

Like AI was something that had been talked about for fifty plus years.

Speaker 0

早就有人提出理论、一直在讨论、也在研究,但一直感觉挺小众的,从来不像是什么重大突破,总让人觉得这行业就像个‘狼来了’的故事,始终没什么实质性的进展。

Theorized, talked about, worked on, always seemed niche, never seemed like a breakthrough, always seemed like a boy who cried wolf type of industry where never really made enough progress.

Speaker 0

结果突然之间,你看,先是AlexNet,接着又是ChatGPT,各种突破接连出现,从那以后,世界就彻底变了。

And then suddenly you get, you know, AlexNet, and then then you get ChatGPT, you get these, like, breakthroughs, and then the world's never the same again.

Speaker 0

我觉得再过个十五年左右,生命延长领域也会迎来一个属于自己的ChatGPT时刻。

And I kind of my prediction is that in the next, I don't know, fifteen years, we're gonna have a chat GPT moment for life extension.

Speaker 0

到时候,长寿和延寿技术会突然从一个边缘的学术话题,变成人人都在用的日常实践。

And that you're gonna get some breakthrough in this longevity and life extension that's gonna make it where it went from this like fringe kind of like, oh, academic topic to just something that everybody does.

Speaker 1

2021年1月,我手下有个中国小伙子。

So in January '21, I had this Chinese kid who worked for me.

Speaker 1

他当时是实习生,来自中国。

He was an intern, he was from China.

Speaker 1

我记得他跟我说:‘萨姆,新冠这事儿不是闹着玩的,迟早会传到美国。’

And I remember him telling me, he was like, Sam, this COVID thing, it's real and it's gotta come to America.

Speaker 1

我当时回他:‘老兄,你们那儿流感都快成家常便饭了。',

And I was like, brother, you guys have the bird flu.

Speaker 1

你们那儿各种疫情不断。

You got this and that.

Speaker 1

可这是美国啊。

This is America.

Speaker 1

我们从不退缩。

These colors don't run.

Speaker 1

我们不戴口罩,根本不用戴。

We don't wear Yeah, we don't wear masks.

Speaker 1

这事儿根本不存在。

This is not a thing.

Speaker 1

一个月后,我清楚记得,大概是三月吧。

And then a month later, I distinctly remember, I think it was in March.

Speaker 1

我当时正要去看好勇士队的篮球赛,突然收到通知,说赛季无限期推迟。

I remember when I got the notification, was gonna on my way to go to a Warriors basketball game and it said season postponed indefinitely.

Speaker 1

你说得对。

And I was like, you're right.

Speaker 1

真的来了。

It's here.

Speaker 1

你完全说对了。

You are so right.

Speaker 1

我每天问自己,在人工智能面前,现在是不是就像2021年1月那样?

And what I'm asking myself every day is with AI, is it January?

Speaker 1

我就坐在这儿,照常过日子,好像有颗小行星正朝地球飞来,但我们还浑然不知。

And I'm just like sitting here being like living my life, like as if there's an asteroid on its way, and we just don't know yet.

Speaker 1

我脑子里一直盘旋着这个问题。

And that's what I'm wondering all the time.

Speaker 1

现在是不是就像2021年1月那样?

Is it January '21?

Speaker 0

那会是什么样子?

What would that look like?

Speaker 0

或者这么说,你指的到底是什么?因为新冠疫情显然是一场大流行病,也算是一种灾难。

Or like, I guess, do you what do you mean when you because COVID obviously was a pandemic sort of a catastrophe.

Speaker 0

你说的灾难具体是指什么?

Do you mean catastrophe?

Speaker 1

举个例子吧。

So here's an example.

Speaker 1

所以一月份的时候,我记得,那人叫什么来着?

So in January, I think it was, what's his name?

Speaker 1

是生物学吗?

Is it biology?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他写了那篇帖子,因为当时有个笑话,说这些自闭症倾向的风险投资人特别懂指数增长。

He wrote this post because, know, the joke was like these autistic venture capitalists understand exponential growth.

Speaker 1

他们一看数据,就赶紧让人进办公室前先洗手。

They see the numbers and they're like making people wash their hands before they come into the office.

Speaker 1

他们真够蠢的。

How stupid of them.

Speaker 1

Block或者杰克·多西的公司刚裁了一大批人,却没一个人觉得这人疯了。

And Block or Jack Dorsey's company just laid off a ton of people and weren't thinking to themselves like, this guy's crazy.

Speaker 1

他到底在搞什么?

What's he doing?

Speaker 1

但私下里,其他公司都在想:我们是不是也该这么做?

But like secretly, every other company is like, should we?

Speaker 1

我们该不该跟着做?

Should we do this?

Speaker 1

接下来十二到二十四个月,会不会出现多米诺骨牌效应,开始陆续发生?

And like, is there gonna be a domino effect over the next twelve to twenty four months where it's like, it starts happening.

Speaker 1

又一家公司开始行动了。

Another one starts happening.

Speaker 1

再一家,这周就又有十家。

Another one, ten more this week.

Speaker 1

他们之所以纷纷裁员,是因为这招确实管用。

And like, they're they're all doing these layoffs because it's actually effective.

Speaker 1

这正是我想不明白的地方。

Like, that is what I make that's like what I'm wondering.

Speaker 0

你刚才提到了杰克·多西的事。

So you mentioned the Jack Dorsey thing.

Speaker 0

我觉得你这么说,反而把真正发生的事给轻描淡写了。

And I think the way you said it kinda undersells what actually happened.

Speaker 0

你刚才的说法是,杰克·多西的公司,以前叫Square,现在叫Block,裁掉了一大批人。

Because you the way you said it was Jack Dorsey's company, formerly known as Square, now known as Block, laid off a bunch of people.

Speaker 0

这个我听说过。

I've heard that.

Speaker 0

科技公司裁员的事确实不少。

There's been tech layoffs.

Speaker 0

像这种大规模的深度科技裁员,也不是第一次了。

There's even been huge tech deep tech layoffs like that.

Speaker 0

历史上这种事发生过好多回。

That's happened many times in history.

Speaker 0

那这次到底有什么不一样?

What's different this time?

Speaker 0

我觉得关键在于,他裁人是因为觉得,传统的公司运营模式已经不管用了,也不合理了。

And I think the reason is different is he laid off the people because he was like, oh, the normal corporate model doesn't work or make sense anymore.

Speaker 0

我们以后不会再有那种层层叠叠的组织架构了,什么CEO、经理、下属经理一大堆。

That actually we're not gonna have this, like, org chart with, like, a CEO and then, like, managers and managers and and managers underneath.

Speaker 0

实际上,未来只会有一个中央大脑,就是人工智能,我们所有人只是向它提供信息。

Like, actually, there's just gonna be one central brain called AI and all of us feeding context into it.

Speaker 1

HubSpot的前CEO布莱恩·哈里根跟我这么说的。

That's what Brian Halligan, the the former CEO of HubSpot, told me.

Speaker 1

他说,未来的公司就是一个以AI为中心的枢纽。

He was like, the future companies, it's a hub of AI.

Speaker 1

大部分决策都由AI来做,其他人围绕着它工作。

They make the majority of decisions and everyone's around it.

Speaker 0

你这是在说HubSpot吧。

It's a hub to spot.

Speaker 0

你这话怎么说的……

You're like, bro,

Speaker 2

我懂你什么意思了。

I see what you did there.

Speaker 2

别闹了。

Come on.

Speaker 0

别逗了。

Get out of here.

Speaker 0

不过,这确实挺靠谱的。

But, yeah, this so okay.

Speaker 0

那这到底意味着什么?

So what does that what does that actually mean?

Speaker 0

听起来挺玄乎的,对吧?什么中央大脑之类的。

What do it sounds esoteric, right, like the central brain or whatever.

Speaker 0

但我认为大多数人没意识到相反的一面。

Here's the the flip I don't think most people appreciate.

Speaker 0

现在呢,大家都会说,没错。

Today, it's like, oh, yeah.

Speaker 0

我经常用ChatGPT。

I like I use ChatGPT all the time.

Speaker 0

我拿它来问些简单的问题。

I use it for dumb questions.

Speaker 0

我工作上也会用它。

I I use it with my job.

Speaker 0

我钢琴老师问我,你听说过一个叫Claude的东西吗?

You know, my piano teacher was like, have you heard of this thing called Claude?

Speaker 0

Claude?

Claude?

Speaker 0

我就说,当然听过,我知道这东西。

And I was like, yeah, I've definitely heard of it.

Speaker 0

整天跟它聊个不停,差不多就是这么回事。

You know, making out with it all day, basically.

Speaker 0

然后她说,我爸爸特别喜欢它。

And then she's like, my dad loves it.

Speaker 0

我就问,你爸爸是做什么的?

And I was like, what does your dad do?

Speaker 0

有一份正经工作。

Has some normal job.

Speaker 0

他说,他用它来做演示文稿。

And he was like, yeah, I use it to make my presentations.

Speaker 0

现在感觉就像,每个人都能有个初级助理,帮你把所有事都办了。

And it seems today like there's junior assistant worker that you can task to go do everything.

Speaker 0

人人都有个助理。

Everybody gets an assistant.

Speaker 0

人人都有个初级程序员。

Everybody gets junior programmer.

Speaker 0

人人都有个幕僚长。

Everybody gets, like, a chief of staff.

Speaker 0

我觉得,这大概就是大多数人心里的想法。

That's kind of like, I would say, the mental model most people are operating with.

Speaker 0

真厉害。

Wow.

Speaker 0

如果我用这个,我的效率会提高很多。

If I use this, this makes me so much more productive.

Speaker 0

我觉得对我而言很明显,对杰克·多西来说应该也是,超级智能不会只是普通人手下的小助手。

I think what's obvious to me, and it sounds like to Jack Dorsey, is that, well, the the the superintelligence is not gonna be the junior thing to your average intelligence.

Speaker 0

超级智能会是老大。

The superintelligence is gonna be the boss.

Speaker 0

你反而会变成那个打下手的。

You're gonna be the junior thing.

Speaker 0

这正是布赖恩·哈利根和杰克·多西在讨论的——实际上,会有一个中央AI来主导关键决策、调配资源、制定战略、规划核心项目、决定产品和路线图,甚至决定怎么开发。

And so and that's what he's that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that, actually, there'll be, like, a central AI that's making the key decisions, allocating resources, pick figuring out strategy, coming up with the the the core campaigns about what you're gonna do, the products, the road map, the build you know, the building of it.

Speaker 0

而我们人类的工作,就是提供背景信息、输入数据,让这个大脑变得更聪明。

And then your job as humans will be to feed context, feed information to make the brain smarter.

Speaker 0

你看看这个视频。

So watch this video.

Speaker 0

这是印度一家工厂,他们正在缝制服装,我觉得。

This is a factory in India where they're, like, just sewing garments, I think.

展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
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每个工厂工人都戴着头戴式摄像头,记录他们手部的每一个动作。

Every single factory worker is wearing a headset camera to track their inch their hand movements of everything that they're doing.

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这些数据都是他们拿报酬提供的,给特斯拉、Figure以及所有主要机器人公司,用来快速研发能干任何活的机器人。

And this is all data that they're being paid to give to the robotics companies like Tesla and Figure and, like, all the all the big robotics companies who are quickly trying to create robots that can do any work.

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所以,这里的人其实就是训练数据。

And so the humans here are the training data.

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这些印度工人在这家简直像血汗工厂的地方,头上戴着摄像头,正在训练那个将来会主宰一切的AI。

All these Indians in this, like, freaking factory sweatshop are wearing cameras on their heads, training the AI overlord that will place

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你正在为自己挖坟。

your grave.

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你是在给自己挖坟,网上有个特别火的梗。

You're digging your grave, and there's a great meme.

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你看看这个。

Look at this.

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往下翻。

Scroll down.

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往下拉一点。

Scroll down one one knot.

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看,再往下拉。

Look at the look at the now go down.

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就在这里往下。

Go down right there.

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就是这个。

This one.

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看看这个表情包。

Look at this meme of this.

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那个人坐在树枝上,正锯着自己坐的那根树枝。

The guy sitting on the tree branch sawing off the branch.

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这其实就跟我们所有人现在做的事一模一样。

And this is kind of what we're all doing.

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顺便说一句,这难道不疯狂吗?

So isn't that crazy, by the way?

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就是我刚才给你看的那个东西?

Like, just that thing I showed here?

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对。

Yeah.

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是谁

Who's

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这个供应商是谁?背后是哪家公司?有写吗?

the vendor or who's behind that, does it say?

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有一家公司正在做这个。

So there's a company that's doing this.

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这是一家公司,叫Objectways。

So it's a company, this one is called Objectways.

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这是一家印度的数据标注公司,创始人是一位20岁的年轻创业者,马上就要成为亿万富翁了,叫德夫·曼达尔。

It's an Indian based data labeling company founded by a 20 year 20 year old entrepreneur, soon to be billionaire, Dev Mandal.

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德夫,来上个播客吧。

Dev, come on the podcast.

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他发现了人工智能想做的事和现有训练数据之间的缺口,并抓住了这个机会。

He spotted an opportunity in the gap between what AI wants to do and the training data that they have.

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像特斯拉的Optimus、Figures AI这些类人机器人公司,都有原型机需要海量的真实世界动作数据来掌握做饭、洗衣服这些任务。

All these humanoid robot companies like Tesla's Optimus, Figures AI, there are prototypes that need vast datasets of real world movements to master tasks like cooking, laundry, etcetera.

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但在美国这种高工资国家收集这些数据成本太高了。

And so but collecting this in a high wage country like The US is very expensive.

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于是印度就派上了用场,他们的两千名员工每天能产出数百段视频。

So enter India, where their team of 2,000 employees produces hundreds of videos daily.

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每次任务,比如他们要收集两千段叠毛巾的视频片段。

And in one batch, you know, so they'll they'll get, like, you know, 2,000 clip clips of towel folding.

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员工就坐在那儿,一遍又一遍地叠毛巾。

So the workers sit there and have to fold towels over and over and over again.

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如果拍出来的画面不合格,他们会受罚。

They're penalized if they have bad footage.

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比如你的摄像头没对准要拍的东西。

Your camera wasn't pointed at the thing.

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嘿。

Hey.

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你搞砸了。

You messed up.

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别提供糟糕的训练数据。

Don't give bad training data.

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要提供优质的训练数据。

Give good training data.

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所以他们整天就这么干,然后把数据发给像Scale AI这样的大型数据标注公司,再由这些公司转售给各个AI实验室。

And so they're they're doing this all day, and then they send it to companies like Scale AI, like the big data labeling companies here, who then resell that to all the AI labs.

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什么?

What?

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这太惊人了。

This is incredible.

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确实如此。

It's something.

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这事儿挺大的,我不知道用‘惊人’这个词准不准确。

There's a big I don't know if incredible is the word.

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现在世界上正发生着一件特别疯狂的事。

There's something insane going on in the world right now.

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这简直就像电视剧《黑镜》里的情节,真的。

This is straight out of like, dude, like, this is Black Mirror.

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一方面,这事儿特别有逻辑。

On one hand, it's it's hyperlogical.

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特别理性。

It's hyperrational.

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这就是资本主义在运作。

It's capitalism at work.

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这些机器人一旦投入应用,就会成为人类历史上最伟大的发明,比iPhone还厉害,比任何东西都厉害。

Dude, these robots, when they work, it's gonna be the biggest product ever invented in the history of mankind, bigger than the iPhone, bigger than anything.

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要是真能有两万个机器人干活,那绝对是史上最大的产品。

When you get a 20,000 robot that can do do work, it is the biggest product ever.

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所以我现在把很大一部分资产都投在特斯拉,因为这显然是通往全球最大市场的最重要产品。

It's why I have a huge chunk of my net worth in Tesla right now is because that's obviously the biggest product in going to the biggest market in the world.

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这只是一个时间问题,而不是会不会发生的问题。

It's just a matter of when, not if.

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要做到这一点,你得需要数据。

To do that, you're gonna need data.

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这意味着数据非常宝贵。

That means the data is very valuable.

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如果机器人有价值,那数据就更有价值。

If the robots are valuable, the data is valuable.

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那数据怎么来呢?

How do you get the data?

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很明显,你会去人工成本最低的地方,那里有很多人做手工活,他们乐意每天拿一百美元戴个头戴摄像头。

Well, obviously, you'd go to the lowest cost place where you got a bunch of humans doing these hand handheld tasks, and they're happy to take a $100 a day to wear the camera on their head.

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对。

Yeah.

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他们脖子有点疼。

They got a little neck pain.

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第五、第六节颈椎有点吃不消,毕竟一整天八小时都戴着这个超重的摄像头。

That c five, c six vertebrae is a little strained because they're wearing this heavy ass camera for eight hours a day.

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是的。

Yeah.

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他们可能很快就要失业了,不过话说回来。

They're they're probably put out of job soon, but, like, hey.

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现在一天一百美元,一个月才三千,这可是我工资的两倍。

A $100 today a $100 a day right now or a $100 a month, that's that's double my wage.

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这太棒了。

This is great.

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上周我看到一篇报道,说Claude在测试他们的新模型时,好像它自己跑掉了。

So what I had read about last week was that when Claude was messing around with their new model that if I remember correctly, it, like, escaped.

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就是说,它好像突然就突破了。

Like, I think it, like, jumped in.

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它真的

Did did it

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越狱了吗?

did it jailbreak?

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这个故事的细节其实有点不一样。

The the nuance of the story is a little bit different.

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没听起来那么吓人。

It's a little less scary than it may sound.

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他们告诉了模型。

They told the model.

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模型的任务是:你现在在一个沙盒里。

The model gets tasked with you're in a sandbox.

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你的目标是想办法逃出去。

Your job is to try to escape.

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他们只是想测试模型有多厉害,并不是它自己突然产生了逃跑的动机。

So they're they're trying to see how good it's not like it just on its own came up with the motivation.

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这破事,不干了。

Like, fuck this.

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我走了。

I'm out of here.

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不行。

No.

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但说实话,它确实有这个能力。

You know, like But it was capable.

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测试过程是这样的。

The testing.

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然后,负责设置这个任务的研究员正坐在公园里吃三明治,突然收到一封来自他那个机器人的邮件:‘我走了。’

And then it and then, basically, the researcher who set up the task is sitting at a park eating a sandwich and gets an email from his bot like, I'm out.

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大卫把责任全推给了自己。

Like, David blamed David blamed his ass.

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你可能会觉得,也没那么严重。

You're like, it's not that bad.

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然后你把情况描述得更糟了。

And then you painted a worse picture.

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你还记得大卫·布莱恩以前那些街头魔术视频吗?他就走在街上,随便做个魔术,然后那些观众的反应特别有意思——要么拔腿就跑,要么双手举过头顶原地转圈。

They should do you remember the old David Blaine Street Magic videos where he would just walk on the street and be like, you know, like, do a trick, and then and they'd always just inevitably be like, the people who have the best reactions where they just run or they run around in a circle with their hands over their head.

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我觉得那些AI公司根本不该这样,他们总跑去旧金山的loft,满屋子原木装饰,然后装模作样地谈什么人类的未来。

I feel like the AI companies, instead of making these, like, thoughtful in a you know, they they go to a loft in San Francisco with natural wood fibers everywhere, and then they're, like, speaking about, like, you know, the future of humanity and whatever.

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他们真该学学大卫·布莱恩,上街头去展示自家模型能干啥。

They need to do David Blaine Street magic about what their models can do.

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要是我是个三线模型,想往上爬,我就拿这招当营销策略。

If I was like a if I'm like a tier three model and I'm trying to, like, jump up, that would be my marketing strategy.

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就是拍些路人被震惊到的街头采访,直接展示效果。

It's just showing people's minds being blown with man on the street interviews.

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你有没有过这种感觉?策略定了,brief写好了,大家都说一致了,结果最后还得有人坐下来真干活。

You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, and everyone is aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create the content.

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那个人就是你,而且明天就得交。

That someone is you, and it's due tomorrow.

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Breeze Assistant 可以帮上忙。

Breeze Assistant can help.

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它直接集成在 HubSpot 里,能帮你起草营销文案、博客文章、邮件,全部用你的品牌语气,而且完全基于你的实际客户数据。

It works right inside of HubSpot, drafting campaign copy, copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice, all grounded in your actual customer data.

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别只是随便写点内容,要写能带来转化的内容。

So don't just create content, you create content that converts.

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去 hubspot.com 看看吧,这是为成长型业务打造的智能客户平台。

Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses.

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我是一名高管教练,他在第一次见面时跟我说了一件事,因为他自己花了一百多万美元,请过各个领域最顶尖的教练来指导他。

My I'm a exec like, coach, and he told me something in the very first meeting because he's he spent over $1,000,000 on his own, like, getting coached by the best coaches in all these different modalities.

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比如躯体疗法,管它是什么呢,还有内在家庭系统,诸如此类的东西。

So, like, somatic therapy, whatever the hell that means, internal family systems, and this and that.

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这些全是各种各样的辅导方法,说白了我都不太清楚该叫它们什么。

They were all these different like, any different branch of sort of I don't even know what you would call these, like, coaching modalities, I guess.

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他为了自我提升,光是培训就花了上百万美元。

He spent a million dollars on his own training.

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他跟我说,我就想知道,谁在这方面最厉害?

And he he's like, I just want he's like, who's the best at that?

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就算我不完全相信那种方法,我也想亲自去最顶尖的人那里,沉浸式体验一下,用四周时间,获得相当于四年积累的见识。

Even if I don't fully believe in that method, like, I wanna go experience it firsthand from the best person in an immersive way and get, like, you know, four years of, like, exposure in four weeks type of deal.

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我问他,那最后到底值不值?

One of things that he told me, I was like, so what is it net out to?

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我说,你做了这么多事。

I was like, you do all that.

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你跑遍了全世界。

You travel the world.

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你花了一百万美元。

You spend a million dollars.

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你接受了各种各样的帮助、自我成长和心理治疗。

You get all the help and self help and therapy.

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你体验了所有不同的方式。

You can get in all the different versions.

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那你最终得出什么结论?

Where do you land?

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我猜大概是像《牧羊少年奇幻之旅》那本书,主角跑遍世界去找一样东西,结果发现那东西就在自家后院里。

I'm guessing it's something like, you know, that book, The Alchemist, where it's like he goes around the world searching for something, and it's in his own backyard or whatever.

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那你觉得,你后院里藏着的到底是什么?

I'm like, what's the thing that was in your own backyard?

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他说,其实所有的哲学和宗教,归根结底都能浓缩成三个字。

And he goes, oh, all philosophy philosophy and religion basically, like, condenses down into three words.

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活在当下。

Be here now.

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不管是佛教、哲学家,还是其他任何宗教,本质上讲的都是同一件事——专注当下。

And he's like, it just whether it's Buddhism or it's philosophers or it's, you know, a different whatever religion you're you're looking at, fundamentally, it's about presence.

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你能做到活在当下吗?

And can you be here now?

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所谓‘活在当下’,不只是不看手机、专心致志那么简单,而是不去纠结已经发生、无法改变的过去,也不为还没到来的未来焦虑或兴奋,而是真正把注意力集中在眼前这一刻,因为只有这一刻才是真实的。

And what Be Here Now means is not just about like not checking your phone or being present that way, but not worrying about what happened in the past, which can't be changed, being anxious or even excited about what's happening in the future, which is not here yet, but like actually being able to center your mind around what is happening like in this moment because it's the only moment that's real.

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随之而来的,就是欲望的消失。

What comes with that is the lack of desire.

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佛教里说,欲望就是痛苦。

So, like, the Buddhists say desire is suffering.

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意思是,你能安住于当下,不渴望比此刻更多东西。

And so it's the idea that you can be in a moment and not be wanting anything more than what the moment is already giving you.

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不渴望去别处,不期待什么事发生,然后才会觉得有趣。

Not wanting to be anywhere, not wanting something to happen, and, like, oh, then the fun will start.

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不是这样的。

It's like, no.

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根本不是。

No.

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此刻才是真正的乐趣所在。

This part is the this is the fun.

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这个当下,什么都不缺。

There's nothing missing from this moment.

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你从他那里学到的其他东西,有没有付诸行动的?

Has any other learnings that you've gotten from him turn into action?

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我喜欢这个说法。

I like that.

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还有别的吗?

What else you got?

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你是这个意思吗?

Is that kinda what you're saying?

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还有没有其他的,类似这样的?

Like, what's the what's another one that that's kind of in

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我其实正在想,这事儿这么棒,我是不是也该请个高管教练?

I'm that actually thinking, like, is this so amazing that I should also get an executive coach?

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我好久没请过教练了。

Because I haven't had one in forever.

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对。

Yeah.

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我觉得只要有条件的人都应该找一个。

I think anybody with the means should have one.

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顺便说一句,随着人工智能的发展,每个人都会具备这个条件,因为成本会大幅下降。

And I think, by the way, that with AI, everybody will have the means because it'll drop the price of this pretty dramatically.

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不过,确实如此。

But, yeah, it does.

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你听说过‘橡胶鸭调试法’吗?

And I think, you know, the have you ever heard of rubber ducking?

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我觉得我之前提过一两次了。

I think I've mentioned this once or twice.

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你听过这个说法吗?

Have you ever heard of this phrase?

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橡胶鸭调试法是个程序员常用的术语。

So rubber ducking is a a programming term.

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比如说你是个软件工程师,整天写代码,结果代码出问题了。

So let's say you're a software engineer, you're coding, you're writing code all day, and your code's not working.

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代码编译不过去,有bug,怎么都不按你想要的运行。

It's not compiling, you have a bug, it's not doing what you want it to do.

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大多数人传统上怎么解决这个问题呢?就是干坐着,撞墙硬扛;要是想聪明点,就请个别的程序员来看看代码,帮忙找找问题出在哪。

So the way that most people traditionally solve this problem is, you know, they sit there, they bang their head against the wall, Or if they wanna do better, they would invite someone, you know, another smart programmer to come look at the code and see if they can help debug it and figure out what's wrong.

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但橡胶鸭调试法的发现是,你根本不需要另一个聪明的程序员。

And rubber ducking was this observation that you don't even need another smart programmer.

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有个程序员桌上放着一只小橡胶鸭。

There's a programmer who had a little rubber ducky on his desk.

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他发现,只要把代码对着橡胶鸭讲一遍,就能更快、更轻松地发现问题。

And he found that just by talking out like explaining the code to the rubber duck, he would find the issues much faster and much more painlessly.

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这有点像所谓的‘所罗门效应’,就是你给别人提建议时总比给自己提时更明智。

It's sort of like the I think it's called like the Solomon Complex, which is basically like you tend to give other people better advice than you give yourself.

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所以你可以假装自己是第三方,给那个‘别人’出主意、讲道理,然后照着做就行。

And so if you pretend that you are the third party and you advise that person and give them some wisdom, you should just take that.

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这样给的建议,肯定比你直接对自己说‘萨姆,你就这么干’要好得多。

And it will be better advice than if you just said, do this, Sam, to yourself.

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没错。

Right.

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对。

Right.

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确实如此。

Right.

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所以,这种‘橡胶鸭调试法’非常有效。

So this idea of rubber ducking is very powerful.

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即使我的教练并不出色,即使他没花过一百万美元,即使他自己也不是那种通过实战积累经验的成功商人,哪怕他只是一只橡胶鸭,也照样有用。

So even if my coach wasn't great, even if he didn't spend a million dollars, even if he himself wasn't a successful business guy who had learned a bunch of lessons that way and lived a bunch of life, Even if it was a rubber duck, it would be useful.

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而且顺便说一下,我亲自试过。

And so I've and by the way, I've tried this.

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我确实有个教练。

I had a coach.

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我在Twitch工作的时候,公司只要你是高管团队成员,就会给你配一个教练。

When I was at Twitch, they, like, gave you a coach if you're on the exec team.

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所以这就像是找了个免费的教练。

So it's like, here's a free coach.

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我当时想,这我还真没试过。

I was like, I've never tried this before.

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让我试试看。

Let me this.

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一开始我特别怀疑,因为我觉得那些生活教练……

And I was very skeptical going in because I was like, life coaches.

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我参加过那么多托尼·罗宾斯的活动,知道那种场合里,最倒霉的那个最后反而成了生活教练。

Like, I've been to enough Tony Robbins event to know that, like, it's the biggest loser at a Tony Robbins event who becomes a life coach.

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托尼·罗宾斯活动现场,三分之一的人都是状态特别差的,你问他们做什么的,居然说他们是生活教练,真让人震惊。

It's like the a third of the audience at at Tony Robbins is like broken people who are if you ask them what's their job, they say they're life coaches, and you're like, oh my god.

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你居然还给别人做教练?

You're coaching people?

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天哪。

Like, wow.

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这就像是让酒吧调酒师来教你开车一样。

That's like it it's like the bartender being your driving instructor or something.

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我也不太清楚。

I don't know.

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这个比喻我之前没想过,但反正我是真不想这样。

It's like, didn't know the analogy, but it's like, don't want that.

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所以我对这件事一直抱着特别怀疑的态度。

So I had this, like, very skeptical view of it.

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结果一上线,发现她的Zoom背景是那种特别俗气的绿幕特效。

And sure enough, I get on the call and her Zoom background is like this cheesy green screen thing.

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然后她还说,自己搬去佛罗里达是因为生活彻底崩了。

And then she's like in in she moved to Florida because her own life fell apart.

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接着她就说,现在当教练了。

And then she was like, yeah, I'm a coach now.

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我当时就愣住了。

I'm I'm like, wait.

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所以你的生活都崩了,你身上几乎没有任何我想要的东西,我却还要听你的建议?

So your life fell apart and you have kind of like none of the things I want in life, but I'm gonna take advice from you.

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天啊,果然跟我猜的一模一样。

Like, oh god, this is this is exactly what I thought.

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我当时觉得自己特别聪明。

I felt so smug.

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但上了第一节课之后,我心想:这还真管用。

And then after the first session, was like, damn, that was really useful.

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她根本没说啥话。

And I was like, she didn't even say anything.

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全是我自己在说。

I just talked.

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我只是有了个空间,能把心里话大声说出来。

I just had space to talk out loud.

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说着说着,我就听出了自己那些想法有多荒唐,然后就放下了。

And as I'm talking, I hear the comical absurdity of some of my thoughts, and I was able to get rid of them.

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对有些人来说,写日记就是办法。

And, you know, for some people, is journaling.

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每个人处理这事的方式都不一样。

For some people, are people have different ways of doing this.

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有些人就找朋友聊聊,或者干脆根本不需要做任何事,问题自己就解决了。

Other people just talk to their friends or whatever, or maybe other people just have this solved without needing anything.

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但对我来说,脑子里就像跑着一堆bug不断的代码。

But for me, I have code running in my head that is buggy buggy software.

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它老出错。

It makes mistakes.

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还有那些自己搞出来的毛病,我想把这段代码修好。

It has, you know, self self induced errors, and I wanna get I wanna fix that code.

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所以哪怕只是跟一个不说话的人说说,或者对方只问些特别简单的问题,这种‘橡皮鸭调试法’也特别有用,我强烈推荐给所有想理清自己思维的人。

And so even even just rubber ducking to a person who doesn't say anything or the things they say are just, like, very simplistic questions is so useful, and I highly recommend it to anybody who wants to improve their code in their head.

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这太棒了。

That's great.

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你刚才说动我了。

You just convinced me.

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你能说说你付多少钱吗?

Can can you say what you pay?

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是每月五美元左右吗?

Is it like $5 a month?

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每月两到四美元,挺好的。

2 to 2 to $4 a month Cool.

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这只是一个你可能遇到的范围。

Is is like a range that you can expect.

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但它真的特别有用。

But, it's incredibly useful.

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我再跟你分享一个类似的领悟。

And I'll give you another one that's kind of like a realization.

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我们每次开始的时候,都会先聊一聊最近的成就。

So we start every session with just wins.

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所以我基本上就变成了埃米纳姆。

So I basically turn into Eminem.

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我变成了朱斯·沃尔德。

I turn into Juice World.

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我一开始就在开头即兴说起来。

I started just freestyling at the top.

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我们根本不用多说,我就直接说:好了。

I just we don't even I just say, alright.

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在他开口之前,我就先聊赢的事。

I'm gonna start with wins before he says anything.

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然后我就开始随便说一些取得的进展。

And I just start saying random wins.

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比如说,我最近在读一本书,特别棒。

So I'll be like, I've been reading this book, and it's awesome.

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我为自己能坚持读书感到特别自豪。

And I just feel proud of myself for reading books.

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我老说想做这件事,但从来都没真干过。

I've been saying I wanna do it, and I never really do that shit.

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但这次我终于行动了,为此我挺为自己骄傲的。

But then finally, I'm doing it, so I'm proud of that.

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今天我带儿子去看了足球赛,上周他还为此哭呢。

I took my son to the the soccer game today, and last week, he was crying about it.

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但这周他直接去参加了训练,没闹腾。

But this week, he went in, and he actually did the class.

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我都没插手,这事让我特别有成就感。

I didn't have to help him, and I felt awesome about that.

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还有个进展是,昨晚我特别想吃点零食,但最后我忍住了。

Another win is that last night, I really wanted a snack, but then I just avoided it.

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我就喝了杯水,然后去睡觉了。

And I went to I just got a glass of water.

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我和别人相处时,从来都不设防。

I went to bed, and I have no filter with somebody.

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如果我跟你说或者跟朋友说这事,他们肯定会说:哇,真的吗?

And, like, if I was to say this to you or to a friend, they'd be like, woah.

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根本没问过我。

Like, didn't ask.

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你这是在干嘛?

Like, what what are you doing?

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现在到底发生啥了?

What's happening right now?

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我还会觉得不好意思,不敢把这么小的事当成成就。

Or I would feel self conscious that I couldn't say a small thing as a win.

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非得是大事才行。

It'd have to be a big thing.

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这其实是在剥夺自己的快乐,因为真正活得好的方式,就是为那些小事感到开心。

And, like, that's, like, literally robbing yourself of joy because, like, actually, the better way to live life is to be excited about the small things.

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但现实中根本没人给你空间去为这些小事高兴。

But there's no space where you could just be excited about the small things.

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对吧?

Right?

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这种事哪儿有这么酷的?

Like, where is that cool to do?

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但这次不一样,我可是付钱的。

But in this case, like, yo, I'm paying you.

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我在这儿想怎么干就怎么干。

I get to do what I want here.

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我不用在乎你怎么想。

I don't have to care about how you feel about this.

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我不用听你的。

I don't have to listen to you.

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我们不是来干别的事的,我这样扯远了,反而把事情搞砸了。

I don't have to, like we're not here to do another thing, and I'm just, like, ruining it by sidetracking this way.

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不是这样的。

No.

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这正是这么做的目的。

That's what this is for.

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这里就是让我做这事的地方。

This is the space for me to do that.

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我最近听到喜剧演员吉米·卡尓说过一段特别棒的话,他说——

And I I heard this great quote from Jimmy Carr, the comedian, where he said

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老兄,他现在简直像个哲学家了。

Dude, he's like a like a thinker now.

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他根本就不是个段子手了。

He's not even a comedian.

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他更像一个讲智慧的人。

He's like a wisdom guy.

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你有没有听过他最近和克里斯·威廉姆森做的那个播客?简直太棒了。

If you haven't have you listened to he did a podcast with Chris Williamson recently that was so good.

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我给克里斯发了条消息。

I texted Chris.

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我当时就觉得,这真是我这几年听过最棒的播客之一。

I was like, this is like one of my favorite podcasts in years.

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因为他根本就是一个哲学家。

And it's because he's a philosopher.

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他特别特别有深度,想得很透彻。

And he's like, he's very, very thoughtful.

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所以吉米·卡尔回应说,大家都老在谈感恩。

And so Jimmy Carr said, he was like, oh, everybody talks about like gratitude.

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说感恩特别重要。

Gratitude is so important.

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但感恩这事儿吧,其实挺费劲的。

But gratitude is this like, almost like heavy activity to do.

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我知道自己该做,可就是提不起劲。

It's like, I know I should be doing that, but I'm not doing it.

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做起来还总觉得有点矫情。

It's like, and you feel a little cheesy doing it.

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他说,庆祝其实就是有行动的感恩。

He's like, celebration is just gratitude in motion.

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所以他建议,干脆去庆祝你生活中正在发生的事。

And so he's like, just celebrate what's going on in your life.

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就是,为自己的生活感到开心,这完全没问题。

Like, just be it's okay to be excited about what your life is.

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为刚刚发生的好事感到兴奋,这也没错。

It's okay to be excited about what just happened.

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这就像我跟教练一起做的一个小方法,真的很有用,因为它让我不断积累正向能量,更多关注生活中的好事,而不只是盯着问题。

And so that's like an example of like a simple thing that I do with the coach that actually makes a difference because I build a lot of momentum and I check-in on the positives of life and not just the problems of life.

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对吧?

Right?

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因为像我们这样的创业者,天生就是解决问题的高手。

Because me and you were probably most entrepreneurs by default are problem solvers.

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我们靠解决难题赚钱。

We get paid to solve problems.

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我们公司不只是在解决市场上的一个问题。

Our company isn't just solving a problem in the market.

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作为CEO,你得处理公司里最棘手的那些问题。

And then as CEO, you're solving the nastiest problems in the company.

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只要有人在工作中卡住了,你就得冲进去帮他们解决。

And then when, you know, anybody, if they get stuck in their job, you have to dive in and help solve that problem.

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每天都会冒出新的问题。

And every day, there's a new problem.

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所以我们渐渐习惯了到处找问题、拼命解决问题。

So we get wired for problem seeking and problem destruction.

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这对你取得成就有帮助,但老是找问题,可不怎么让人开心。

It's good for achievement, but it's not good for happiness is to be a problem seeker.

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我们好久没单独见面了,上次还是很久以前的事。

I haven't seen you since we haven't we haven't done a solo thing in a minute.

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那次和Chris一起的活动挺不错的。

The Chris thing was cool.

Speaker 1

你、克里斯、乔治,还有那个搞健身的。

You and Chris and George and the other the fitness guy.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

不好意思。

Sorry.

Speaker 1

搞健身的那位。

Fitness guy.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我觉得你特别棒。

I think you're great.

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就是一时想不起你的名字。

I just can't remember your first name.

Speaker 1

那一次真的很棒。

It was great.

Speaker 1

这期播客真不错。

It was a great pod.

Speaker 0

哦,谢谢。

Oh, thanks.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

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这周我还要录一期。

I'm going I'm gonna do another one this week.

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我们打算再搞一次同样的内容。

So we're gonna do try to run it back a second time.

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给不太了解的人简单说一下,克里斯·威廉姆森,就是做《Modern Wisdom》的那位,他之前做了一期不太一样的内容。

The context for those who don't know, Chris Williamson, the guy who does Modern Wisdom, he did an episode which was a little bit different.

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他平时都是在采访别人。

Normally, he's interviewing somebody.

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比如我就会去采访乔丹·彼得森、休伯曼,或者其他人。

Like, I'm interviewing whatever, Jordan Peterson or Huberman or whoever.

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这次是克里斯和朋友们聚在一起。

And this was Chris hanging out with his friends.

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就是四个男人随便聊聊,放松一下。

Just four guys kinda shooting the shit was the idea.

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原本的设想有点像展示分享会。

And the original premise was like a almost like a show and tell.

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每个人带点自己最近感兴趣的东西——比如看到的有趣事、觉得酷的东西,吸引你注意的玩意儿,然后大家互相看看最近都在关注啥,结果一聊就是三个小时。

Like, everybody kinda bring just shit that, like, you you're interested in right now, something funny you saw, something cool that's, you know, caught your attention, and just let's just all show each other what's going on, but it was like a three hour hang.

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本来就是这么打算的。

That was the idea.

Speaker 1

我觉得你最有趣。

I thought you were the most entertaining person.

Speaker 0

对。

Yes.

Speaker 0

我觉得

I thought

Speaker 1

我觉得克里斯特别有意思。

I thought Chris is a very entertaining person.

Speaker 1

乔治也很有趣。

George is entertaining.

Speaker 1

我本来觉得乔治·麦克说话特别正经。

I thought that the the the common so George Mac is like comes off sounding very proper.

Speaker 1

你倒不算不正经,只是有种不一样的魅力。

And you aren't improper, but you're more of a, like, a a different type of charming person.

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我觉得你们俩这种搭配特别棒。

And I thought that dynamic was quite good.

Speaker 1

你讲的那些故事里,有一半我觉得我们是一起发现的,或者你早就知道了——反正我听过不少,但听的时候还是觉得特别好笑。

The half the stories that you told, you I think you had like, we have discovered them together or or or you've already so, like, I thought you're so, like, I had heard a lot of them, and I thought it was so I thought it was funny.

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看到你在那里,我有点自豪,但我觉得整体特别棒。

It made me a bit proud to see you there, but I I thought it was great.

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我觉得就像一场轻松有趣的即兴发挥。

I thought it was, like, a fun riff.

Speaker 1

我觉得他们应该继续邀请不同的人,而且你一定要一直参与进来。

I think that they should continue trying different people including and have you there, though, all the time.

Speaker 1

魔术师奥兹·珀尔曼来过我的办公室,我们跟他一起做了一期节目。

So Oz Pearlman, the magician, came to my office, and we did a thing with him.

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我们跟他录了一期播客。

We did a pod with him.

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顺便说一句,这期播客太棒了。

And By the way, great pod.

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我特别喜欢这期播客。

Love that pod.

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这期在YouTube上的播放量不高。

It didn't get a lot of views on YouTube.

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我不明白大家是怎么想的。

I don't know what people are doing.

Speaker 0

简直是浪费了。

Sleeping on it.

Speaker 0

这期播客太棒了。

It was a great podcast.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

我也不明白为什么会这样。

I don't know why it did either.

Speaker 1

我也不懂。

Didn't either.

Speaker 1

但你听他说了什么。

But listen what he did.

Speaker 1

他来的时候,我们只闲聊了十分钟,之后又闲聊了十分钟。

He came in and we only chitchatted for ten minutes, and then we chitchatted only for ten minutes after.

Speaker 1

就在这两个时间段里,他一直在表演。

And in those times, he was just performing.

Speaker 1

我当时就想,我们公司里 mostly 是年轻女生,她们都被他迷住了,我本人也是。

And I was like, I I had an off like, for some reason in my company, it's like mostly like young young women who work there, and they are, like, enthralled by this guy, as as I am too.

Speaker 1

他们一进来,我就知道他们在等,还说:‘你不用非得,但……’

And they like walked in and they were I could tell they were waiting and they're like, oh, you don't have to, but

Speaker 0

你有没有发现今天办公室打扮得特别隆重?

you know office is really dressed up today?

Speaker 1

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他们就是希望你能跳支舞似的。

Like, you know that they're just like wanting you to like dance.

Speaker 1

你想跳的话,随时都可以。

If you want to, you can.

Speaker 1

但如果你不想跳,那就别勉强了。所以他直接说:‘不跳。’

But like, you don't want to, just like, let's so he was like, no.

Speaker 1

我来跳。

I'll do it.

Speaker 1

他猜中了,我们公司有个女同事快生了。

He guessed the name that we have a we have a woman who is giving birth soon.

Speaker 1

他猜中了她孩子的名字。

He guessed the name of her child.

Speaker 1

他就说,你知道,她其实还没定下来,但 yeah。

Like, he was like, you're like, he you know, she hadn't she yeah.

Speaker 1

他一边说一边琢磨,让我猜猜你们打算取什么名字。

He likes he's like, let me figure out what name you're

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你要给娃取什么名?咱们一步步来,我对这种神奇的事太着迷了。

gonna name your Let's walk through this step by step because I'm fascinated by magic.

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他走进办公室的时候,我一直在想,他到底是怎么做到这些的。

He walks in the office, but I'm trying to figure out how the hell he does all this shit.

Speaker 0

你事先跟他沟通过吗?

So did you talk to him beforehand?

Speaker 0

他来办公室之前,从你那儿套了多少信息?

Like, how much did he pull from you before he showed up at the office?

Speaker 0

之前聊了很多吗?

Was there a lot of talk?

Speaker 0

有聊过吗?

Was there any talk?

Speaker 1

我猜到他用的是哪一招了,不过他以为你会在场。

There's one trick that I can that I think I know how he did it, but he thought that you were gonna be there.

Speaker 1

他还说,他本来准备了两套魔术,给你们俩看的。

And he was like, oh, I'd prepared tricks for both of you guys.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

因为我之前一直在给他发消息。

Because I was texting him.

Speaker 1

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他还以为你们两个都会来。

And he was like, thought you guys were both gonna be here.

Speaker 1

我当时心想,糟了。

I was like, oh, no.

Speaker 1

真的很抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

Speaker 1

我以为我们已经跟你沟通过了。

I thought we communicated with you.

Speaker 1

他说,好吧。

And he's like, okay.

Speaker 1

我本来准备了别的东西。

Well, I had a a different thing prepared.

Speaker 1

那我换一个试试。

So let me try something else.

Speaker 1

他问,你能写下一个你心里想的东西吗?

He was like, can you write down think of you know what?

Speaker 1

他们以为他和他之前做过这个。

They think he and he he he does Before

Speaker 0

在节目开始前。

the podcast.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

都是在播客之前的事。

There's all the Before the podcast.

Speaker 1

他老说一些话,好像觉得你会往那个方向走,结果又突然改主意。

And he says these phrases like like he think he thinks that you're going this way and then he changes.

Speaker 1

他会说,你知道吗,我本来想让你做这个,但其实咱们还是做这个吧。

So he'll be like, you know, I want you to do actually actually, let's do this.

Speaker 1

咱们就做这个。

Let's do this.

Speaker 1

写下来,帮我个忙。

Write down Do me a favor.

Speaker 1

想象一场你想要举办的生日派对,想想你希望有哪一个人到场。

Think of a party that you wanna have a birthday party and think there's one person who you wanna who you want to show up there.

Speaker 1

把那个人的名字写下来。

Get write that person down.

Speaker 1

你其实,算了,不说了。

You actually, screw it.

Speaker 1

咱们直接在直播里做吧。

Let's just do this on air.

Speaker 1

他过去拿起了我写的那张纸,当场撕了。

And he went and he grabs that paper that I wrote, and he tore it up.

Speaker 1

然后他就在直播里表演了同一个把戏。

And then he did the trick on air, that same trick.

Speaker 1

我觉得那个撕纸可能是假的。

And I think that when that I think the tear was fake.

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

这样你能明白吗?

Does that make sense?

Speaker 0

好。

Okay.

Speaker 0

这不错。

That's good.

Speaker 0

这肯定是对的吧?

That definitely right?

Speaker 0

这肯定就是正确的做法。

That definitely has to be the way that that that's done.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

太好了。

Cool.

Speaker 1

但你听我说。

But then, listen.

Speaker 1

我们刚录完播客出来,那些女生就坐在那儿,像是专门等他一样。

Right when we finished the pod, we walked out, and the women were just sitting there, like, to greet him.

Speaker 1

她们说:你能表演一下吗?

And they were like, can you do something?

Speaker 1

他回答说,当然。

And he goes, yes.

Speaker 1

他又问,那你呢?

And he goes, how about you?

Speaker 1

他指着一位陌生女士说,帮个忙。

And he points at a random lady, and he goes, do me a favor.

Speaker 1

想想你最好的朋友。

Think of your best friend.

Speaker 1

她想了一下,他说,是汉娜。

She thinks of her best friend, and he was like, It's Hannah.

Speaker 1

她整个人都惊呆了。

And she was freaking out.

Speaker 1

他说,我记一下。

And he was like, Let me write something down.

Speaker 1

他写完后问,你是在哪儿认识汉娜的?

He writes it down, and he goes, Tell me, where did you meet Hannah?

Speaker 1

她说:墨西哥城。

And she goes, Mexico City.

Speaker 1

他翻了下手,说:我就猜是这儿。

And he turns his hand, and he's like, That's what I thought.

Speaker 1

还真是墨西哥城。

And it was Mexico City.

Speaker 1

他写下的就是墨西哥城。

He wrote down Mexico City.

Speaker 1

网上的人说:他根本就是把每个人的信息都查了个遍。

And people online were like, yeah, he just researched everyone.

Speaker 1

我说:我当时那儿有十八个女人。

I'm like, I had 18 women there.

Speaker 1

他不可能把这十八个人的信息都查一遍吧。

He can't research every 18 person's

Speaker 0

哦,他根本不用查,对吧?

best Oh, he doesn't need to, right?

Speaker 0

他先研究一个人,然后随机选中你,对吧?

He researches one, and then he randomly you, right?

Speaker 0

他挑中了那个人。

He chose the person.

Speaker 1

那你有最好的朋友吗?

But do you have a best friend?

Speaker 1

他是怎么知道的?凭什么能猜中?

Like, how and how would they know?

Speaker 1

这听起来不太合理。

That doesn't seem reasonable.

Speaker 0

但我认为,这正是他厉害的地方。

Well, I do think that's the genius of what he does.

Speaker 0

我之所以这么说,是因为我看了好多他的视频。

So I've I've I've because I've watched hours.

Speaker 0

我总共看了十八个小时的视频,专门研究他是怎么做到的,还看了他的采访,因为我对这一切特别着迷。

I've watched eighteen hours of clock time of debunking him, figuring out how he does it, interviews with him, because I'm fascinated by the whole thing.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,我对这件事感兴趣有两个方面。

And by the way, I'm fascinated by it in two ways.

Speaker 0

一个是他的那些手法,另一个是背后的商业运作。

One is the tricks, but the other is the business side of it.

Speaker 0

你想想,他把自己从魔术师重新定位为心灵术士,这难道不是一个极其高明的营销策略吗?

Because if you just think about, like, what he did by rebranding as a mentalist instead of a magician, is it all time marketing move?

Speaker 1

老兄,播客结束后,有人给我发了封邮件,让我看看这个。

Dude, post podcast, someone sent me an email, they're like, check this out.

Speaker 1

我十年前请他来办过一场派对,当时收费150美元。

I booked him to do a party for me, and it was $150 ten years ago.

Speaker 1

他还告诉我他现在赚多少钱。

And he told me how much money he's making now.

Speaker 1

那数字简直吓人。

It's astronomical.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

因为他才是第一名。

Because he's the number one.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

这可是经典的营销手法。

It's a classic marketing thing.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

品类法则。

The law of category.

Speaker 0

他没有把自己当成又一个魔术师。

Instead of being yet another magician.

Speaker 0

别人可能会觉得他像科波菲尔或者大卫·布莱恩,但他根本不是大卫·布莱恩。

Oh, he's like Copperfield or David Blaine, but he's not David Blaine.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

大卫·布莱恩更出名。

David Blaine's more famous.

Speaker 0

他做的魔术更厉害,场面更大,等等吧。

He does better tricks, bigger tricks, blah blah blah.

Speaker 0

他更像是街头魔术师。

He's like the street magician.

Speaker 0

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 0

有型。

The cool.

Speaker 0

不对。

No.

Speaker 0

不对。

No.

Speaker 0

不是。

No.

Speaker 0

他根本不是魔术师。

He's not a magician.

Speaker 0

那些都是普通的魔术手法。

Those are those are magic tricks.

Speaker 0

每个孩子都懂,这谁不知道啊。

We all every kid knows yeah.

Speaker 0

人人都知道魔术是怎么变的。

Everyone knows how a magic trick works.

Speaker 0

手法骗人罢了。

Sleight of hand.

Speaker 0

我是个读心者。

I'm a mentalist.

Speaker 0

他成了世界第一的读心者,可那时候根本就没有这个分类。

And he became the number one mentalist, and it wasn't it wasn't even a category.

Speaker 0

所以我特别着迷于他那种定位、营销和商业模式。

So I'm, like, fascinated by the the positioning, the marketing, the business side of what he did.

Speaker 0

这绝不是偶然。

That's not an accident.

Speaker 0

他亲手打造了这个人设。

He created this motherfucker.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

他创造出了这样一个独特的自我形象。

Like, he created this this thing that he is.

Speaker 0

太震撼了。

Epic.

Speaker 0

然后他还搞定了传播渠道。

And then he figured out distribution.

Speaker 0

他意识到,我需要一些引爆网络的瞬间。

And he's like, oh, I need these viral moments.

Speaker 0

所以他去参加《硬核训练营》的NFL训练营。

So he goes to NFL training camp during hard knocks.

Speaker 0

他借用了他们的传播渠道。

He piggybacks off their distribution.

Speaker 0

他让所有人都震惊了,大家都很想看勒布朗·詹姆斯被捉弄的样子。

He blows their minds, and everyone's interested in seeing LeBron James get fooled.

Speaker 0

这比随便在街上捉弄个陌生人有意思多了。

That's more interesting than just seeing a random guy on the street getting fooled.

Speaker 0

哦,原来如此。

Oh, okay.

Speaker 0

不错。

Good.

Speaker 0

而且还不止如此。

Like, even more

Speaker 1

在播客之前,他就说过,我打算重新做播客了,因为去年我太出名了。

viral before the podcast, he was like, I'm starting to do podcast again because I got overexposed last year.

Speaker 1

他用'过度曝光'这个词的时候,我就明白了,原来这一切都是计划好的。

Like, he like, when he used the phrase overexposed, I'm like, oh, so this is all part of the plan.

Speaker 0

没错。

Right.

Speaker 0

后来他在一次采访里说了一句特别棒的话。

And so then in one of his interviews, he just says a great thing.

Speaker 0

他说,秘诀就在于给自己留好几条退路。

He talks about, like, secret is having multiple outs.

Speaker 0

比如说,你提到'最好的朋友'这个说法。

So meaning, like, let's say you said the best friend thing.

Speaker 0

这其实是个概率问题。

It's a it's a probability game.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你不可能每次都猜得准。

So you're not always gonna know the answer.

Speaker 0

所以你就想,这词是以某个字母开头的。

And so you're like, it starts with a letter.

Speaker 0

它以一个字母开头。

It starts with a letter.

Speaker 0

我好像听到的是 k 音,还有 t 音。

It it I'm getting like a a k sound, a t sound.

Speaker 0

是 t 吗?

Is it a t?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,他听着你说话,看着你,然后就猜了个 t。

You know, he he he's hearing you, looking at you, and then he's like, t.

Speaker 0

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 0

那我就知道,不是 Steve。

Then I know it wasn't Steve.

Speaker 0

是特雷弗。

It's Trevor.

Speaker 0

我左边胳膊上写的是史蒂夫,右边胳膊上写的是特雷弗。

So now I I had Steve written on my left forearm, but I had Trevor written on my right forearm.

Speaker 0

我再也不打算把左臂的袖子卷起来了。

I'm just never gonna pull the sleeve up on my left.

Speaker 0

我只会把右臂的袖子卷起来。

I'll pull the sleeve up on my right.

Speaker 0

他讲过这个事

Well, he told that

Speaker 1

在播客里讲过。

story on the podcast.

Speaker 1

他上过《今日秀》,还让阿尔·罗克猜下一个明星总统会是谁。

He went on the Today Show, and he tried to get Al Roker to guess who then a celebrity president would be.

Speaker 1

他一开始说乔治·克鲁尼,结果对方说:不对。

And he originally said George Clooney, and he was like, oh, no.

Speaker 1

那女性呢?

What about a female?

Speaker 1

然后他说是泰勒·斯威夫特。

And it was and he said Taylor Swift.

Speaker 1

接着他要么就拿出来说,或者他会说

And then he pulled Or he'll be like the

Speaker 0

穿件衬衫吧,咱们选个现代点的人。

shirt Let's do someone modern.

Speaker 0

咱们选个能让你改主意的人。

Let's let's do someone and he, like, gets you to change it.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

你根本不知道他身上还纹了泰勒·斯威夫特,屁股上纹了别的名字,鞋上还纹了别人。

And you don't know that he had, you know, Taylor Swift on his thing, and he had, you know, whatever, Shaaname on his butt and somebody else on his shoe.

Speaker 0

他根本没必要露出来。

He just never needs to show it.

Speaker 0

我当时就想,哇。

And I'm like, wow.

Speaker 0

这真的挺厉害的。

That's actually pretty great.

Speaker 0

他这么做简直太聪明了。

Pretty pretty genius the way he does that.

Speaker 1

那真的太惊人了。

It it was it was just incredible.

Speaker 1

他给我讲了个故事。

He told me a story.

Speaker 1

他说的时候,我先开了个玩笑。

He he was like I was like, did you do you I made a joke first.

Speaker 1

我觉得特别搞笑,你做了这么多事,就好像外星人从太空飞来一样。

I was like, it's pretty funny that you can do all of this stuff and it's as if they like sent an alien from outer space.

Speaker 1

我们提到一个场景,他就重新讲了一遍塞思·迈耶斯的节目。

Like, we brought up like a set he's like retold this Seth Meyers show.

Speaker 1

他们还让你去参加犹太成年礼表演。

And they had you, like, perform at bar mitzvahs.

Speaker 1

那你为什么不去做点更特别的事呢?

Like, why aren't you, like, doing something more special?

Speaker 1

那是因为

That was

Speaker 2

这问题问得好。

a great question.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

他当时是怎么回答的?

What was his answer to that, by the way?

Speaker 1

他说,他承认这一点。

He was like he's like, well, what he admits it.

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