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好的,快速插播一下今天的赞助商。没错,几周前我做了一个假广告,说本期节目无人赞助。自那以后,就不断有人发邮件联系想在播客上投广告,这很棒。
Okay. Quick break to talk about our sponsor for today. That's right. A few weeks ago, I did a fake ad read where I said this episode is brought to you by nobody. And ever since then, people just email reaching out to advertise on the podcast, which is great.
这家公司真的很酷。本周播客的赞助商是Supercast。如果你想通过播客变现,Supercast能帮你从听众那里获得稳定的定期收入。怎么样?通过去掉中间商,把听众变成付费订阅用户。
And this is a really cool company. The sponsor for this week's podcast is Supercast. So, you know, if you wanna cash in on your podcast, Supercast can help you unlock predictable recurring revenue from your audience. How was that? By cutting out the middleman and turning listeners into paying subscribers.
事实上,采用订阅模式的播客主收入可能比单纯广告翻倍。我喜欢这个。访问supercast.com/hustle了解更多并赚更多。好的,我待会儿得去看看。
In fact, podcasters using a subscription model can make twice as much versus advertising alone. I like that. Visit supercast.com/hustle to learn and earn more. Alright. I will have to check that out after this.
我确实喜欢订阅模式。我和Sam的相遇其实非常随机。我们相识是因为Sam当时在主办HustleCon,他给我发了封邮件说:嘿Sean,久仰大名,听说你的Space Monkey Inferno办公室超酷。
I do love me some subscriptions. So me and Sam met actually, we met in a really fucking random way. So we we met because Sam Sam was hosting HustleCon, and he was he I get an email from Sam Parr that says, hey, Sean. Heard great things about you. Heard things heard great things about your space monkey inferno.
嘿,你知道吗?一周后我要办HustleCon,需要找个场地办演讲者晚宴,会有超多牛逼的演讲者到场。
Office is so dope. Hey. You know what? We I have HustleCon coming up, like, in a week from now, and I need a I need a space to host my my speaker dinner. It's gonna have badass speakers.
这个人、那个人、还有那些人都会来。你愿意提供场地吗?我读完后心想:我不认识这家伙,他根本不可能听说过我,肯定在胡扯。
This guy, this guy, this guy, this guy, you know, all these people are coming. You know, would you be down to to host it? And I read it, and I was like, I don't know this guy. There's nothing about you know, like I was like, this is he's full of shit. Like, hasn't heard anything about me.
但他可能真看过我们的场地,因为我们的空间确实很酷。
But he probably saw our space because our space was really cool.
郑重声明,我确实有过。难道不是这样吗
And for the record, I had. Wasn't I
我原以为那是胡扯,但心想,即便如此,这也是高级别的胡扯。所以我当时觉得,听起来不错。而且他确实提供了些价值,比如能参加晚宴,结识这些人。
I assumed it was bullshit, I was like, still, this is real this is high class bullshit. And so I was I was like, yeah, this sounds great. And and he was bringing some value to the table. He was like, you can attend the dinner. You'll meet all these people.
于是我尝试还价,说只要能在HustleCon演讲就答应。他却表示名额已满。
So I tried to negotiate back. I was like, cool. As long as I could speak at HustleCon, I'll do it. And he was like like, no. There's no spots left.
我心想:行吧,这很公平。你依然可以做到。那晚我们就是在演讲者晚宴上这样相识的,我在那里结识了几位挚友——这印证了'露面就是成功'的理念,后来成了我的座右铭:八成胜算在于现身。
And I was like, alright. Fair play. You could still do it. So that's that's actually how we met that night at the speaker dinner, and I met a few of my best friends there, which is, like, testament to the idea of, like, just show up. It's become, like, a motto of mine, which is showing up, like, is just 80%.
对在座各位来说,你们本可以选择任何消遣——宅家看网剧、约会,做任何日常之事。但你们选择了到场。只要现身,好事自然会发生。
And, like, for you guys who came here, you could have done anything. Could have stayed home, Netflix, gone on dates. You know, you could have done whatever you guys do. You know, you could have done tonight, but you showed up. And so good things can happen when you show up.
就是这样
And that's
我们曾坚持每周或每月聚会——肖恩和三位朋友每周雷打不动碰面,后来变成每月一次,持续了数年之久。
And and and so we used to do a weekly week weekly or monthly where it was Sean and three of our friends that we would meet up every single week, and then eventually every single month for years, it felt like.
是的。曾经
Yeah. Was
我们每周或每两周在晚上7点左右聚会一次。现在我们称之为'智囊团',本质上就是一群志同道合的人聚在一起。山姆也参加了,你还邀请了几位非常优秀的朋友。这个想法是,你看,如果你在创业,大部分时间都得推销——向投资人推销,向客户推销。
it like 7PM once a week or once every two weeks, we would get together. And it was it's what we call a junto now, which is basically like a a meeting of the minds. And Sam was in it and you invited a couple friends that were really good. And the idea was like, hey, you spend most of your time where you have to sell if, you know, if you're doing a business, you gotta sell to investors. You sell to your customers.
你还要向队友们推销'一切顺利'的假象。但实际上情况通常并不乐观。默认状态下,大多数时候事情都不太顺利。所以我们希望有个能说真话的圈子,这里30%是心理疗愈——其实可能70%都是疗愈,只有30%是策略讨论。
You sell to your teammates that, hey, things are going great. But in reality, things are usually not going great. Default. By most most of the time, things are not going great. And so we wanted a group of people that you could talk to, and it's like, you know, 30% therapy or it's actually probably like 70% therapy, 30% strategy.
但我们骗自己说这完全是策略会议。比如我说遇到某个难题,结果发现山姆特别擅长营销,他就会说'老兄你为什么不这样做?去读读这篇博客,超有用'。
But we, like, told ourselves it's all about the strategy, which was that, hey, if I say I'm having trouble with this thing, turns out Sam's really good at marketing. And he could be like, dude, why don't you just do this, this, and this? Go read this blog post. It's awesome. It'll help you out.
但更重要的是,由于我主办会议,我们还能获得内部消息。你人脉很广,认识所有人。我们还有投资人朋友,感觉离任何想联系的人都只差一步。
But then also, we would have, like, insider knowledge because of because I host conferences. You you're just very personable. You know everyone. And then we have an investor friends. And, like, we had this network of we were, like I felt like one step away from anyone we ever wanted to speak with.
所以我们总能听到些传闻,然后把这些传闻带到会上讨论。比如'听说某某在做这个'。后来播客的这个环节就演变成了这样。
And so we would also, hear rumors. And we'd bring up those rumors. Like, I heard this person was doing this. Right. And that's kinda what the podcast one this part of the podcast turned into.
没错。我们就是这样相识的,所以我知道和山姆头脑风暴会很棒。我好奇有没有外地来的朋友?你是从外地来的吧。
Yeah. Exactly. So that's how we got to know each other, and that's why I knew Sam would be good to do these brainstorms with. So I'm curious for people who are did anybody come from out of town? You you came from out of town.
对吧?所以你来自
Right? So you came from
圣地亚哥。
San Diego.
圣地亚哥。利弗莫尔。利弗莫尔。马里布。太棒了。
San Diego. Livermore. Livermore. Malibu. Love it.
萨克拉门托。萨克拉门托。谁来自最远的地方?谁觉得自己来自最远的地方?洛杉矶。
Sacramento. Sacramento. Who came the furthest? Who thinks they came the furthest? Los Angeles.
洛杉矶。好的。非常好。
Los Angeles. Okay. Very good.
圣
San
地亚哥。地亚哥。圣地亚哥是最远的。好了。为来自圣地亚哥的这位鼓鼓掌。
Diego. Diego. San Diego's the furthest. Alright. Round of applause for the guy who came from San Diego.
大概提前十天通知吧,我我我觉得。是的。
On, like, ten days notice, I I I think. Yeah.
每次听到这个,我就想问,为什么?
Whenever I hear that, I'm like, why?
对。我们我们不会明说那部分。答案是什么?为什么?
Yeah. We we don't say that part out loud. What is the answer? Why?
我只是有些问题想问你们。好的。应该
I just have some questions I wanna ask you guys. Yeah. Okay. Should
我们从这个开始吗?什么问题?我我感觉你从圣地亚哥来的。我我欠欠你的。
we start with that? What's the question? I I feel like you came from San Diego. I I owe owe it to you.
真方便。是的。等等。在正式提问前,我想先说,因为我们已经创建了你创建了这个播客,我创建了奋斗事业,人们觉得我们好像有答案,但这绝对不是事实。但事实是,我,因为那些观点。
Sweet access. Yeah. Wait. And before we actually get the question, do wanna preface this by saying, I feel like because of the we've created the you created this podcast, I created the hustle, people think that, like, we have answers, and that's definitely not the truth. But what is the truth is, though, that I, like, because of the Opinions.
嗯,非常固执己见。因为我创建的事业和你一样,我遇到了太多人,看到了太多模式,听过所有这些故事。所以我要说如果有四个问题,那就是答案的来源。
Well, very opinionated. Because of the business that I've created and you as well, I've met so many freaking people and seen so many patterns and I've heard of all these stories. And so I would say if four questions, that's the where answer is coming from.
是的。我常对人们说,世界上比我聪明、更有智慧的人多的是,但你可能不认识他们。所以我是你最好的选择。所以尽管说吧。
Yeah. What I always tell people is if you know there's a lot a lot of people out there who are smarter and wiser than me, but you probably don't know them. So I'm the best you got. So so so go ahead.
是的。所以我想要
Yeah. So I wanted to
问问你关于Blab创业的事。嗯,我记得是在2014年启动的,对吧?
ask you about your startup with Blab. Yep. I know that started started in in what? What, 2014? Yeah.
然后,我在读你的播客——抱歉,是你关于失败原因的那篇媒体文章。你提到用户流失率是主要问题之一,但你还预见到了哪些其他问题?除了流失率,还有哪些原因导致了Blab的失败?
And then, and so I was reading your podcast, or sorry, your, your media post about why it failed and how it failed. And I know you mentioned that churn rate was one of the main issues, but what other issues did you see coming? And, like, what other reasons besides the churn rate did you have that came to the failure of Blab?
好的。我们当时开发了一个叫Blab的应用。Jake也在场,他参与了Blab。Jason也是Blab的一员。
So okay. So we we had built an app called Blab. Jake's here. Jake was part of Blab. Jason was a a Blab.
我想他是在我们关闭Blab时加入的。好像还有人说他们用过Blab。简单来说,Blab就像是一个按键就能开播的脱口秀平台,类似于我们现在做的事,但在线上。最多可以有四个人同屏对话,观众人数不限。
I think he joined right when we closed Blab down. I think somebody else said they were a user of Blab here. Basically, Blab was like a way you could push a button and start a talk show. So, basically, what we're doing now, but, like, online. And so you could have two up to four people talking on screen and unlimited people watching.
现在像Periscope、Facebook Live等很多平台都在做类似的事。我们尝试过。你问为什么失败?主要有两个原因:一是大多数人制作的内容——看看YouTube、播客、博客就知道——99%的内容质量真的很差。
And so now, like, Periscope, Facebook Live, now a lot of things are out there that try to do stuff like this. We tried. Your question was why did it fail? It failed for really two reasons. One was when most people make content, if you look at YouTube, podcasts, blogs, 99% of content is really bad.
按我的判断不算差,但市场的评判却很糟糕。它没有点击量,也吸引不到粉丝。直播的问题在于,如果是YouTube或博客文章,你还能蒙混过关,因为优质内容会留存下来。它们始终在那里。
And not bad by my judgment, but bad by the market's judgment. It doesn't get any views. It doesn't get a following. And the problem with live is that, you know, you can get away with that if you're YouTube or you're a blog post because the good stuff sticks around. It's still there.
所以你看,那1%的优质内容,你可以找到并享受它,从而打造出成功的服务。但直播面临一个棘手难题:优质内容只有在播出时才存在,一旦下线就消失了。因此要持续提供优质娱乐内容,难度呈指数级增长。我们亲身体会过这种痛苦,最终这就是失败的原因。
So, you know, the 1% that's good, you can find it and enjoy it and that you can create a successful service. With live, you have this really hard problem where the good stuff is only good while it's on, and then as soon as they go offline, it's gone. So it's, like, exponentially harder to have good entertainment on all the time. And we've we felt that pain. And so, ultimately, that's why it failed.
另一件怪事是——你们知道马丁·什克雷利是谁吗?
The other weird thing was do do you guys know who Martin Shkreli is?
嗯,所以
Yeah. So
如果你知道
if you do
我在你的节目上和他胡扯过。
I blabbed with him on your show.
对,所以如果
Yeah. So if
我一开始不知道这家伙是谁,但他突然出现时,我惊呆了。心想这马丁是谁?结果发现他是我们最大的用户,有成千上万的人观看他,而我们当时只是个小小的服务平台。
you don't know I didn't know who this guy was, but he came on. I was like, wow. Who's this guy Martin? He's the biggest user we have. This guy's got thousands of people watching him, and we were this tiny service at the time.
后来我谷歌了他,第一条结果就是‘马丁·什克雷利,美国最遭人恨的男人’。我心想不妙。原来他就是那个买了某种药然后哄抬价格的家伙,
And turns out, I googled him, and it his like, the first thing that comes up is Martin Schirreli, most hated man in America. And I was like, uh-oh. It's not a good thing. And and, basically, he was the guy who had bought a he bought some drug and jacked up the price,
就是那个‘制药兄弟’,老兄。
Pharma which is like bro.
对,制药兄弟。他还干过各种坏事,现在蹲监狱了。这就是故事的结局。但他当时确实在我们的平台上,每晚都在喋喋不休。
Pharma bro. And then he did all kinds of other stuff. He's now in jail. So that's like the that's where the story ends. But he was on our service, and he would blab every night.
他实际上是我们平台的明星用户,用得特别溜。其他名人尝试使用时都很假,但这家伙天天用,每晚都开播,给我们带来了数十万用户。
He was actually our star user. He used it as, like he used it perfectly. We had other celebrities try to use it, but it was, like, very inauthentic. This guy, he would use it all the time. And he would use it every single night, and he was driving hundreds of thousands of people to us.
所以我们当时在发展壮大。但你们如果知道4chan或某些网络喷子团体——其实我不该提这个,别再来攻击我了,我有心理阴影了——当时有个叫‘蜥蜴小队’的组织,他们既讨厌马丁·什克雷利,也反对我们允许他在平台直播。
So we were growing. But if you guys know about 4chan or some of these other, like, Internet, like, troll groups or hacking groups actually, I shouldn't say anything. Don't attack me anymore. I am I'm scarred. But there was a a group called Lizard Squad at the time who did not like Martin Shkreli, and they did not like that we were letting him broadcast on our platform.
于是他们开始对我们发起DDoS攻击,简直难以置信,持续了——杰克,我们当时抵抗了连续多少个月来着?
And so they started DDoSing us, basically, like like, you wouldn't believe every day for I don't know. Jake, how many months straight did we fight this?
只要马丁一直在。
As long as Martin's always on.
是的。只要马丁在,他们就会这么做。而且这简直难以置信。另一个失败的原因是我们遭到了最活跃的网络黑客组织的全力攻击,而我们只是个初创公司,根本无力应对。
Yeah. As as long as Martin was on, they would do this. And it was it was unbelievable. So the other reason it failed was that we had one of the most prolific Internet hacking groups attacking us with their full force while we were like this new startup and we're not there
可能还有第三个原因,我的一位好友目睹了整个过程,他作为企业家的起点与大多数人截然不同。他们基本上
was maybe a third reason and as one of my best friends, saw like this whole thing is that his setup as an entrepreneur was like way different than most people. They basically
太善良了。
Too nice.
没错。那个叫迈克尔·伯奇的亿万富翁——或者说接近亿万富翁——他的'猴子地狱'项目。大多数人赚了点钱可能会买豪车名表,而这位富豪每年大概投入五百万美元(具体预算我不清楚)办了个孵化器,肖恩是负责人,可以随意用这笔钱搞酷炫项目。我觉得这反而成了干扰,因为每三个月就能尝试新东西的自由。
Yeah. There the monkey inferno was so there's this billionaire named Michael Birch, or he's close to a billionaire. And most people, when they get a little bit of money, maybe they'll buy a nice car or a nice watch. This billionaire had probably a five I don't know what your budget was, but let's say $5,000,000 a year incubator where Sean was the boss and got to spend this money on launching cool stuff. And I think it created a little distraction because, like, you had the freedom to every three months try something new.
我们每天有私人厨师,办公室里还设了个酒吧。在我看来这些不是失败主因,但它们确实营造了安逸感——想想看,谁会在办公环境都令人尴尬的情况下认真经营?日常工作条件
We had a private chef every day, and we have, like, you know, a a office in the bar sorry. A bar in our office. Now these weren't in my opinion, I don't think they're the reason we failed, but they do create a sense of security and comfort that, like, you know, who's running a business that's like, your office is embarrassing? Like, you are your daily conditions
那会是什么样子?比如,
What would are be? Like,
你们没人举手吗?就是说,除了你还有谁呢。谢谢。老实说吧,你到底什么意思
you you Nobody raised their hand? Like, who's but you yeah. Thank you. Like, just be honest here. What do mean
是不是就像你被逼到绝境了?
is, like, your back was against the wall?
我以前常带约会对象去办公室给他们留下好印象。但我觉得大多数创业者不会带约会对象去车库试图打动他们对吧?这就像
I used to take dates to my office to impress them. I don't think it I don't think most entrepreneurs would take their dates to their garage to try to impress them. Right? It's like
很多人创业时被逼到绝境,他们会想'我必须成功'。而你从未真正陷入绝境,我觉得这很棒。可能确实很棒,应该是很棒。但是
when a lot of people start companies, their backs up against the wall, they're like, I I gotta make this work. You never really had your back up against the wall, which I thought was awesome. And maybe it is awesome. It could be awesome. But
是啊,这确实可能是个重要因素。但很难下定论对吧?失败时很难准确说出具体原因
Yeah. That might have been a that might have been a factor for for sure. But it's hard to say. Right? When you when you fail, it's hard to say why why exactly you failed.
你会试图找出原因,但通常都是多重因素。成功也一样。如果问成功人士怎么做到的,他们往往连艰难时期都记不清了。就像选择性失忆,忘了成功前做过的所有事。所以我一般不太纠结失败或成功的原因,因为这太复杂了
You try to pinpoint reasons, but it's usually a multiple of things. Same thing with success. If you ask successful people how'd you do it, usually, they don't even remember the hard times. They sort of blacked out and and and forgot about all those things they used to do when pre success. And so I I in general, I try not to take put too much weight in, you know, why did you fail or why did you succeed because it's so nuanced.
抱歉,这不是个好答案。不过...不客气。嗯
And sorry. That's not a great answer. But No. Thank you. Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
酷。是啊。怎么了
Cool. Yeah. What's
?有个问题想问你。你曾经创办过初创公司,建立了很棒的企业,现在却成了一名员工同时又在经营初创公司。我很好奇。
up? Question for you. So you've, like, run startups. You've built great companies, and now you're, like, an employee and running a startup. So I'm curious.
是啊。别提了。这种平衡怎么样?
Yeah. Don't remind me. How's that balance?
比如,当你具备创业思维时,如何确保自己是个好员工?
Like, how do you make sure that you're a good employee when you have a startup mind?
我前几天刚问过他这个问题。
I asked him that the other day.
所以问题就是如果你
So the question if you if
你没在播客里听到的是关于创业公司的部分。现在你在一家公司当员工。你怎么...那是什么来着?怎么平衡?确保自己是个好员工。
you didn't hear on the podcast was done startups. Now you're an employee at at at a company. How do you what was it? How do balance? Make sure you're good employee.
你如何确保自己是个好员工?
How do you make sure you're a good employee?
嗯,首先,运营公司和...呃...不得不...这两者之间到底有什么区别?
Well, how about even first of all, what is it what was the almost the difference of running versus Yeah. Having to?
天壤之别对吧?就像现在,我有个两个半月大的宝宝。你得让宝宝活着,这就是唯一的工作。
Major difference. Right? So, like so right now, have a baby, a two and a half month old baby. And, like, you gotta keep the baby alive. That's, like, the only job.
工作就是让宝宝活着,你还得做各种事情。
The job is keep the baby alive, and you gotta do stuff.
你不能...宝宝不会自己...
You can't the baby's not just
就活下来。你得全天候主动做事。我妻子每小时都会惊醒,总觉得'我不知道该为什么惊慌,但我必须让这孩子活着'。创业给我的感觉就是这样——默认状态下我们每周都在失败。如今我在Twitch工作,可以说是个高压岗位。
gonna stay alive. You actively do things all times a day. Like, my wife wakes up panicked just every hour just to be like, I don't know what I'm supposed to be panicked about, but I gotta keep this baby alive. That's how a startup felt to me, which was like, by default, we were failing every single week. You know, today, I'm at Twitch, and we have a, you know, I've a what what you would consider, like, a high pressure job.
基本上我在负责他们的国际业务增长。但Twitch不会因为我做得好坏就明天或下周倒闭。如果我表现出色,那会是锦上添花;但如果表现平平,公司也不会因此垮台。这和那种整个项目随时可能崩溃的压力完全不同。
Like, I'm basically running international growth for them. But Twitch is not gonna fail tomorrow or the next week, you know, pretty much regardless of what I do. If I do something great, it's gonna be additive. But if I do okay or or mediocre job, the company doesn't fail. And so there's just a different level of pressure when literally the whole thing's gonna fail.
你要对投资人负责,要偿还他们的资金。那些赌上职业生涯加入你的员工会因此失业——这种压力是另一个量级的。你看我31岁这边就已经有灰白头发了,我觉得就是那时候的压力造成的。这就是区别所在,不知道你是否体会过这种差异。
You're gonna owe people money who you raise money from. Your employees who took a bet on you and came to work for you, they're gonna be out of That's just a different level of pressure. And if if you can see, I have, like, sort of gray hairs on the side here even on 31 years old because I think that was the the pressure then. So to me, that's the difference. I don't know if you've tasted the difference.
而她想要
And she wants to
了解你如何平衡这些,但我想说我们公司是门好生意。我不喜欢经营公司,我真正热爱的是创办公司,这两者天差地别。
know how you balance it, but I would I would say that I our company is a good business. I don't like running a company. I really like starting a company, and they're way different.
确实。这需要两种不同的能力,你要么都具备要么都不具备。另一个问题是如何确保自己是个好员工?老实说我也不清楚。
Yeah. And it takes two different skills to do it. And you either have both or you don't. The other thing which was how do you make sure you're a good employee? I don't know.
坦白讲,我不确定自己算不算得上优秀员工。比如公司收购我们本来是要做某个业务,结果两个月后我就坚持要转型做更重要的事。我以为离开创业公司后就不用再折腾了,但某种程度上我觉得自己算是个不合格的员工。
I don't know if I'm necessarily a great employee, to be honest with you. In fact, like, when we got we got acquired to do one thing within the company, and then within two months, I'm like, no. We should do this other thing that's, like, really important. And I pivoted, which, like, I thought my days of pivoting were over when I left my startup. But so I think in some ways, I was a bad employee.
我没有完成本职工作,但或许这种取舍是值得的——我们现在做的项目本质上是个创业型项目,属于大公司内部的创业尝试。
I didn't do the job I was meant to do, but maybe there's a trade off which was, you know, the project we're working on now is a startup type project. It's more of an entrepreneurial type of project within a big company.
我认为这是可以平衡的,因为我就是这样开始的——当时我还有另一家公司,我们卖掉它后创办了这个。那些在晚上6点到凌晨1点之间完成的事情往往非常了不起。
And I think it's possible to balance that because that's how I started this was when I I had another business and we sold it and then started this. The the things that are built between like 6PM and 1AM are pretty amazing.
说实话,现在那些时间属于我的家人。用来健身、做播客。过去这些时间是用来工作的,同样的时间段。所以我现在不会把这些时间给工作。
And to be to be honest, now those hours are for my family. They're for working out. They're for the podcast. They used to be for the business, those same hours. And so I don't give those hours to my job.
这就是为什么我说不确定自己是否是个好员工。
And that's that's why I said I'm not sure if I am a great employee.
我们可以继续提问,或者讨论一下我们手头的这些内容。
And we can keep doing questions or go through some of the stuff we had here.
好的。你们想听——举个手表决吧,谁想听创意点子?然后我们再看看谁想提问。如果想听头脑风暴的创意,现在举手。好的。
Yeah. Do you guys wanna hear I guess, show of hands, who wants ideas? And then we'll do who wants question more questions. So if you wanna hear brainstormed ideas, hands up now. Okay.
如果现在想问答环节。你们是想直接提问吗?
And if you want q and a now. Just do you wanna just ask a question?
我在想其他人还有什么问题。
Wondering I what other questions people have.
哦,好的。这个元问题。行吧,我们会想些点子。然后你们可以告诉我们,因为要知道,当我们做这些创意时,基本上就是整个星期都在记录听到的有趣内容——别人在做的事、我注意到的趋势,或者趋势小组里读到的东西。
Oh, okay. The meta question. Alright. We'll do some ideas. And then and you guys can tell us because, know, when we do these ideas, we literally just, like, throughout the week, take notes of interesting stuff I'm hearing that other people are doing or stuff trends I'm noticing or stuff I read in the in the trends group.
我还挺好奇,在座有多少人是趋势专栏的订阅用户?对,这很不错。嗯,趋势专栏。
I'm curious also, who here is a subscriber to trends? Right. That's pretty good. Yeah. To trends.
我知道。
I know.
确实不错。你想
It's pretty good. You wanna
有多少人打算... 对,谁准备要
How many people are going to Yeah. Who's going to
继续拼?我去。好吧,行,我们今晚就让你不停做投票了。
hustle on? I'm going. Alright. Okay. We're just gonna make you do polls all night.
就这样,整件事就是这样。
That's that's the whole thing.
你知道该找谁谈。
You know who to talk to.
所以,是的,我们确实在做这些创意,实际上我发现有个很棒的方法。我鼓励你,即使你不是在做关于新创意的播客,也要假装你是。因为现在我会写下新想法,因为我知道,哦,该死,周四或周五我们要头脑风暴。这让我的大脑一直在寻找灵感。
So, yeah, we we do these ideas, and and I've actually found that there's this great practice. So I I actually encourage you, even if you're not doing a podcast about new ideas, act like you are. Because now that I write down new ideas, because I know, oh, shit. We're gonna brainstorm on Thursday or Friday. It's got my brain constantly looking.
如果我不做这个播客,我就不会记下这些笔记。我的大脑可能会开始忽略那些有趣的事情。它会想,哦,那是别人该做的事。我在公司里也经常注意到这一点。你知道,有很多聪明人,我今天还问了一个人。
And if I wasn't doing this podcast, I wouldn't be writing these notes down. My brain would kind of just start to ignore those interesting things. It would just think, oh, that's for other people to do. And I noticed this a lot in our company too. If you know, there's a lot of smart people, and and I actually asked someone today.
我说,你在这里工作期间有没有想到过什么商业点子?他们看起来甚至对我问这个问题感到困惑。这是因为他们的大脑没有在思考这个。我鼓励你训练自己的大脑去关注这些东西。
I said, so have you thought of any business ideas while you've been working here? And they, like, were confused I even asked the question. And it's because their brain wasn't thinking about that. And and I encourage you to train your brain to to look at this stuff.
永远如此。我就是喜欢这样做,我一直都是这样。
Forever. I just love I do this I do it all the time.
是的。你有个待办清单。好吧。我们有什么?我有几个想法。
Yeah. You have a backlog. Okay. So what do we got? I got a couple ideas.
我要告诉你一个我非常看好的点子。有人听说过Amazing Grass吗?没关系。我想吃得健康。而健康饮食其实他妈的很简单。
I'm gonna tell you about one that I'm pretty bullish on. So anybody ever heard of Amazing Grass? It's okay. So so I wanna eat healthy. And eating healthy is basically it's actually really fucking simple.
你吃真正的食物,不吃加工食品,主要是蔬菜,而且别吃太多。就是这样,这就是整本饮食指南。但吃蔬菜挺难的,所以我开始服用这种叫Amazing Grass的粉末。
You eat real food, not processed food, mostly vegetables, and just, like, don't eat too much. Like, that's the whole. That's the diet book. But eating vegetables is, like, pretty tough. So I started taking this powder called Amazing Grass.
基本上,这相当于我懒得煮蔬菜,就开始喝绿色奶昔。现在更简单了,连奶昔都不用做,直接把粉末倒水里灌下去就行。我觉得太棒了。
And basically, it's the equivalent of, like like, I was too lazy to cook vegetables, so I started doing green smoothies. And now this is like, hey, you know what? Don't even do the smoothie. Just put this powder in water and chug. And I'm like, great.
知道吗?算我一个。要是能直接注射进血管,我也愿意。所以...我不知道你怎么看这事,但
You know, sign me up. Like, if you could just inject it in my veins, I'll take that too. And so so I I don't know what you think of this, but
呃,我想知道为什么你现在提起这个?我觉得这已经挺流行的了吧?
Well, I wanna know why you're you're bringing it up now. I feel like this this is already a pretty popular thing. Right?
对我来说是新鲜事。我从来没...当我尝试...
I don't it's new to me. I've never so I've when I've tried when I tried to
比如叫它绿色果汁之类的
like call it, like, a green juice or
你是在说...
Are you talking about
运动绿粉?所以运动绿粉是类似的。
athletic greens? So Athletic Greens is similar.
我也是这么跟他说的。
That's what I said to him too.
所以运动绿粉,我认为是类似的,但它是一种绿色粉末。我不确定运动绿粉是不是绿色粉末。我想是的。
So Athletic Greens, I think, is similar, but it's a it's a green powder. And and so I don't if Athletic Greens is a green powder. Think it is.
是的。
It is.
但我认为,当我看到这个时,我就想,就像蛋白粉行业那样不断攀升。如果你想要增肌,它就会成为你日常必需品的一部分。我觉得这就像是它的素食版本。对吧?基本上不是增肌,而是通过捷径获得健康。
But I I view this as, to me, this when I saw this, I was like, the same way that the protein powder industry has just sort of, like, gone up and up and up. And it's really, you know, if you're trying to bulk up, that just becomes a part of your staple, like, routine. I think that this is sort of the the vegan version of it. Right? It's basically instead of trying to bulk up, it's about hacking your way into health.
所以它是关于更快地获取你从蔬菜中所需的一切。我最喜欢的一点是它味道很差。所以我真的相信它有效。如果这东西味道好,我会觉得,哦不,这是垃圾。
So it's about getting sort of everything you want from your greens faster. And the the thing I like best about it is that it tastes like shit. So I believe that it actually works. Like, if this thing tasted good, I would be like, oh, no. This is this is garbage.
这是加了糖的某种东西。
This is a sugary something something.
嗯,我想说的是运动营养粉
Well, so athletic greens, I think
我以为亚当刚才给你带了一些来。
I thought Adam brought you some right now.
没有。那东西真的很贵。那玩意儿贵吗?
No. It's it's really expensive. Is that stuff expensive?
就这个小罐子
So this little tub
这就像是
This is like
是一家年收入1亿美元的公司,他们被收购了吗?
is a $100,000,000 a year company and they've and they are acquired?
不,他们获得了私募股权投资。
No. They got a private equity investment.
所以它们的价值不止于此。是的。
So they're worth more than that. Yeah.
没错。私募股权新兴,
Yeah. Private equity new,
它们通常非常盈利。
they're very profitable, typically.
正是如此。所以这里的理念不是发明已经存在的东西,而是以新方式去做。我们有很多朋友做DTC公司,直接面向消费者的品牌。而在我看来,这简直就是在呼唤直接面向消费者模式。对吧?
Exactly. So the idea that's here is not to invent something that's already invented, but to do it in a new way. So we have a lot of friends that do D to C companies, direct to consumer brands. And this, to me, was like screaming for direct to consumer. Right?
我买它是因为我在Whole Foods超市看到就直接拿了。但如果你想做DTC产品,这就像是脑海里的一个清单。你需要足够高的价格点——毕竟你不会想卖2美元的产品,因为Facebook广告太贵了。
I bought it because I was in Whole Foods, and I just saw it and I grabbed it. But this is something that would be, you know, D2C if you were thinking about D2C products, it's like a checklist in your head. Right? So you want a price point that's high enough. So, you know, you don't want to sell a $2 product because the Facebook ads are too expensive.
你需要的是重复消费品,而不是一次性购买永久使用的商品。这个属于消耗品,价格点高,面向健康健身这个大市场,而且运输友好,还能轻松做自有品牌。
You want something that's recurring and that, basically, people consume, not something they buy once and they keep forever. So this is consumable. It's a high price point. It appeals to the health and fitness market, which is a very big market. And and it's very, like, sort of shipping friendly, and you could private label it pretty easily.
所以这个构想是通过Facebook、Instagram等渠道,打造一个类似Athletic Greens的DTC竞品。
So the idea here is to go D2C with, like, a competitor to Athletic Greens through Facebook, Instagram.
我讨厌D2C。
I hate D2C.
你为什么讨厌D2C?
Why would you hate D2C?
这就像很多直接面向消费者的公司,它们就像
This is like the a lot of these direct to consumer companies, which like
但你知道我们的朋友在这方面做得有多好。你怎么能
But you know how well our friends are doing with this. How could you
讨厌这个?我认为整个D2C首先,就像一切都是D2C。所以我们基本上在讨论,在我看来,就是那些贴牌的劣质产品,要么是粉色、蓝绿色或黄色,用一个小写字体作为标志,然后把正常价格翻三倍或四倍
hate that? I think that this whole D2C first of all, like everything's D2C. So we're just talking about like basically, it's like in my mind, it's white label it's shitty products that are white labeled that are either pink, turquoise, or yellow use a lowercase font as a logo, and they triple the or quadruple the price of the normal
这就像说一家科技公司,你去掉元音字母,你知道,变成.ly或者.io之类的。对吧?就像
That's like saying a tech company, you remove the vowels and you, you know, dot l y and you know like dot I o. Right? Like It's
类似,而且我也永远不会——我觉得我也会显得很蠢。但我对直接面向消费者这件事的看法,就像我说的,甚至不算是直接面向消费者。就是这一类东西。比如Away旅行箱,我觉得他们的箱子很烂。
similar and I I would never I think I'll be stupid too. But my take on the direct to consumer thing, which like I said, it's not even like direct to consumer. It's whatever this like category is. All most of like like away travel, I think their suitcases suck.
你不喜欢这些产品吗?
And you don't like the products?
我觉得大多数产品都很糟糕。对吧。因为我认识一些公司老板,他们简直在印钱。但他们在阿里巴巴上随便找些劣质货就卖。
I think most of these products are horrible. Right. Because I have friends that own these companies and they print money. Yeah. But they just find something shitty in Alibaba or whatever.
这完全就是市场行为。就是个市场。我觉得这是个没有灵魂的营销机器,能让你发财。但当Facebook广告费越来越贵——确实如此——我们现在支付的费用是两年前的四五倍
And they it's just all market. It's a market. I think it's a it's a soulless marketing machine that will make you rich. But when when Facebook gets more expensive, which it is, we pay four times more five times more than what we did two years ago
是啊。
Yeah.
它要倒闭了。
It's gonna close.
好吧。那你有什么想法?
Okay. Fine. What ideas you got?
你们看到Honey被收购了吗?我一直很看好Chrome插件,我之前在群里发过这个观点——如果有人看到的话——在这次收购之前。所以我这是在自夸。
Do you guys see Honey got acquired? Yeah. Yeah. I've been bullish on Chrome plug ins for a while, and I think I've been bullish on them is if I don't I've posted this in the group, if anyone's seen it, before this acquisition. So I'm tooting my own horn.
但我喜欢Chrome插件,因为人们总把它们当作愚蠢可笑的想法而忽视。Shopify应用被当作蠢主意,WordPress插件也被当作蠢主意。我的公司Newsletters同样轻视那些看似微不足道的愚蠢想法和Chrome插件。他们认为这只是些无聊的小玩意儿。
But I love Chrome plug ins because people dismiss them as silly dumb ideas. So Shopify apps are dismissed as dumb ideas. WordPress plug ins are dismissed as dumb ideas. Newsletters, my company, dismisses small dumb ideas and Chrome plug ins as well. And they think that it's this small silly thing.
就像说'它只是个Chrome插件'。但其实不是。这就好比PayPal——你是个应用吗?是个网站吗?本质上你是一项服务,只是恰好通过某种特定方式交付。
Like it's a Chrome plugin. And it's like, no, it's not. It's just like if you're PayPal, are you an app? Are you a website? It's like you're a service and then you just happen to deliver through a particular mechanism.
所以在我看来,Chrome插件本质上就是服务,只不过恰巧以插件形式存在。我可以现身说法:我们拥有一个Chrome插件。刚才我还给Sean看了数据——这是我此生见过用户黏性最强的服务交付方式。
And so to me, Chrome plugins are just services and they just so happens to use a Chrome plugin. And I'll tell you firsthand, we own a Chrome plugin. And I was showing Sean the stats before this. The Chrome plugin is the stickiest delivery mechanism of a service or product that I've ever seen in my life.
是的,我们刚看了数据,你们大概三年前推出的。
Yeah. We were looking at the stats and you guys launched it like three years ago.
对,其中50%到60%的用户...我们上线第一天发布后就再没更新过,但大多数用户至今仍每天使用。这就是我们推出的叫'Snippets'的功能。
Yeah. And 50 or 60% of those users, we we we literally launched launched it on day one and never touched it ever again. And most of the users are still using it every single day. Yeah. And so this is a thing we launched called snippets.
有人真的在用Snippets吗?哦你在用?真的?有人确实在用啊。Cathy,你装了?
Does anyone actually have snippets? Oh, you have it? Oh, you did? Someone did have it. Cathy, you have it?
好吧,它本来就是个简单小工具,根本没花心思设计。虽然挺精巧,但提供的价值有限。我觉得人们卸载主要是换了新电脑。
Okay. It was just a silly widget. There was like no thought in it. And it's neat, but it doesn't like provide like a ton of value. I think the reason people uninstalled it is they got a new computer.
但只要有2500名用户,我们就能让那个东西每天产生10万次页面使用量。它是个Chrome插件。再比如Grammarly,你们知道Grammarly吧?对。
But with 2,500 users, we'll drive 100,000 page uses of that thing a day. And it's a Chrome plugin. So another example is Grammarly. You guys know Grammarly? Yeah.
当时创始人在HustleCon演讲,我和他闲聊。那是2016年2月,三年前的事了。我问他:'Max,这玩意儿到底是干啥的?'他说:'我告诉你吧...'
So the founder spoke at HustleCon and I was shooting the shit with him. And this was 02/2016. So this was three years ago. And I was like, Max, like, what is this thing about? He's like, I'll tell you this.
我们刚融了1亿美元,这笔钱对我意义重大——他们只买了公司10%的股份。
We just raised a $100,000,000 in funding and I took and that money meant most to me and they only bought 10% of the company.
我当时就惊了:'我靠'。
I was like, holy shit.
他问我:'说说数据吧'。我说:'就是个插件'。他说:'没错,这玩意儿会爆火'。最近他们好像又以超高估值融了笔钱。
And he was like, tell me a little bit of the numbers. And I was like, it's a plug in. He's like, yeah, it's gonna be huge. And I think they actually just raised more money recently at some huge valuation.
离谱
Stupidly
插件用户粘性太疯狂了。我总在想:像我们Hustle这种新闻资讯服务选择邮件推送,就是因为邮件粘性极高。但Chrome插件的粘性是我见过最强的。我脑子里一直在琢磨怎么在上面创造价值。
big. The stickiness of plug ins are crazy. And so in my head, I'm thinking what serve like with the hustle, we're just a news service or an information and we just pick the mechanism of email because it's incredibly sticky. Chrome plugins, way stickier than anything I've seen. And in my head, I'm constantly thinking of value that can be driven on it.
你每天都需要的东西,因为Chrome插件正适合这个需求。
Something that you need that each and every day because a Chrome plugin is perfect for that.
对,还有你
Right. And you
Gmail插件也是。
Gmail plugins too.
是啊。你刚才提到代码片段,你说你们只推广了一次。所以图表基本上显示在发布日有个用户高峰,之后没有新用户加入,但活跃用户数量却连续三年保持稳定。这是个非常有趣的图表
Yeah. You you were saying for for snippets, you you were saying that you guys promoted it just once. And so, like, the graph basically looked like launch day, there's a spike of users, then no new users, but the that no new users coming in, but the active users is just, like, steady for three years straight. And that's like a very interesting graph
在我看来。
to me.
但实际上我们本可以采取的做法是:它本是个基于广告的项目。虽然我不太喜欢广告业务,但我们本可以轻松计算每页面浏览带来的收入,并实际投入资金进行推广。我们真该这么做的,可能已经赚了几百万美元,因为它已经获得了约1亿到1.5亿的页面浏览量。但如果你观察Honey的增长模式
But I actually we what we could have done is it was an ad based thing. And I don't really like advertising as a business, but we very easily could have seen how much revenue we earned per per page view and actually paid to promote it. We probably should have done it. We would have made probably millions of dollars because it's gotten like 100 or 150,000,000 page views already. But if you look at Honey, I studied how they're growing.
他们通过Taboola和Outbrain(那些出现在cnn.com底部的小缩略图广告)实现增长。因为他们计算了用户终身价值,正在疯狂投入获取用户。我认为谷歌也允许你付费进行应用安装推广。
They're growing through Taboola and Outbrain. Those little thumbnails at the bottom of, like, cnn.com. Right. Because they calculated the LTV, and we're just spending like crazy to acquire users. I also think Google lets you pay to, like, app installs.
是的,我也喜欢你思考的方式,因为你喜欢从分销渠道逆向推演。
Yeah. You also I like I like how you think because you like to work backwards from distribution.
我首先考虑的是分销渠道。
I think distribution first.
所以你会先考虑分销渠道。好的。比如Chrome扩展程序。然后逆向推演,直到产品逻辑成立。就像你之前用电子邮件为Hustle做的那样。
So you'll just think of distribution channel. Okay. Chrome extensions. And then work backwards until a product makes sense. Like you did that basically with email for the for for the hustle.
没错。你知道是谁教会我这一点的吗?你们听说过NerdWallet吗?那是个年收入2亿美元的企业。他们长期自力更生,后来才融资。那位创始人教我的。
Yeah. You know who taught me that was this guy have you guys heard of NerdWallet? It's like a $200,000,000 a year business. They bootstrapped it for a long time and they raised all his money. He taught me that.
他们具体是怎么做的?他们基本上是从什么开始逆向推演的?
And how did they do that? They basically work backwards from what?
谷歌搜索?我告诉其中一位创始人——我们当时没拿过风投,只融了点天使资金——我说我们有个会议,我觉得可以建立庞大的邮件列表。我学会了怎么做,而且非常擅长。
Google searches? Told one of the founders who is we raised we had not raised any VC, but we raised a little angel money. I told one of the founders, I was like, we have this conference and I think was like, I could build this huge email list. I learned how to do it. And I know how to do that really well.
结果他说:老兄,拿了这笔钱大干一场吧。我说我都不知道要卖什么。他说你会想明白的,获取用户才是最难的。我当时觉得这听起来太冒险了。
And he goes he's like, dude, raise this money and go big. And I was like, I don't know what I want to sell. And he goes, you'll figure it out. Getting the audience is the hard part. And I was like, that sounds reckless.
我不知道你在说什么。他是对的。所以我了解到,一旦获得受众并将分销成本纳入客户获取成本,基本上,获得受众就意味着获取客户。获取客户要困难得多。因为想想看,世界上有多少糟糕的产品却成了大生意。
I don't know what you're talking about. He was right. And so I learned that once getting the audience and baking distribution into your cost to acquire customers so basically, getting the audience means acquiring a customer. Acquiring a customer is way harder. Because if you think about it, think about how many shitty products are in the world that are huge businesses.
去街对面那家便利店,你会看到真的很差——我是说,这是主观的。但你会看到糖果之类的东西,你会觉得,伙计,这质量不怎么样。但它们却遍布全球每家该死的商店,对吧?
Go to that convenience store across the street and you'll see really bad I mean, that's subjective. But you'll like, candy or something that you're like, man, this is not that high quality. But they're in every fucking store in the world. Right?
郑重声明,萨姆在开始前吃了大约20块糖果。是的。那是一次难以置信的经历。我坐在那里,他就像小孩子万圣节抢糖一样,在我们谈话时狼吞虎咽。然后他不得不用双手收拾所有包装纸扔掉。
For the record, Sam ate, like, 20 pieces of candy right before this. Yeah. It was an it was an incredible experience. I sat there and he he just like a small child's Halloween loot, just downed it while we were talking. And then he had to, two hands, get all the wrappers and throw it away.
看起来有点沮丧。听不见。那太神奇了。
Was like, bummed. Can't hear That was phenomenal.
但我不认为...我认为生意就是分销加产品。有很多优秀产品彻底失败、公司倒闭的例子,就因为没人愿意去买。但如果一个劣质产品有强大的分销网络——就像你在加油站看到的那样——你会想,妈的,我只需要这个东西,我不在乎它有多烂。
But I don't I think a a business is just distribution and then the product. And there's loads of examples of amazing products that completely die and become horrible companies because no one wants to go and buy it. But if an inferior product has great distribution like what you see at the gas station, you're like, well, fuck. I just need this thing. I'm gonna I don't care if it sucks.
没错。显然,如果你既有强大分销又有优质产品,那就是奇迹发生的地方。效果是倍增的。是的。
Right. Obviously, if you have great distribution and great product, that's where magic comes Multiplies. Yeah.
是啊。我很好奇,这里有人有头脑风暴的想法吗?还是你们都毫无头绪?好吧。
Yeah. I'm curious. Does anybody here have an idea for the brainstorm? Like, have you are you all just idea less? Alright.
我们开始吧。你叫什么
Here we go. What's your
名字?凯伦。
name? Karen.
凯伦。很好。你的想法是什么,凯伦?
Karen. Great. What's your idea, Karen?
这个想法是创建一个
The idea is to create
你想上来对着麦克风说吗?想上播客吗?集装箱化。哦,集装箱化。
You wanna come up here and say it into the mic? You wanna get on the podcast? Containerly. Oh, containerly.
我不。好吧。
I'm not. Okay.
对。不。只是... 你是在推销
Yeah. No. Just just Are you pitching
你自己的生意,还是你在推销自己实际的生意?
your own business, or are you Yes. You're pitching your own actual business.
实际生意。
Actual business.
好吧,这其实是个广告。不。
Okay. This is actually an ad. No.
这还只是个想法。你知道吗?这个想法是我们需要与自然更紧密地生活在一起,有共同工作和生活的空间,过着一种流动的、疯狂的、移动优先的生活方式。我们可以通过住在购买的业绩不佳的房车公园里的集装箱里来实现这一点。
It's still an idea. You know? The idea is that we need to live more connected to nature, have places to co work and co live, you know, live an itinerant crazy, you know, mobile first lifestyle. You know? And that we can do that together by living in shipping containers in poorly performing RV parks that we purchase.
然后把所有人都搬进去,有一个很棒的共享办公空间。我们在自然中,散步、呼吸新鲜空气、吃食物
And then move everyone in, have a great coworking space. And we're out there in nature, going for a walk, breathing fresh air, eating food that
所以我们不会把它搞砸。是的,无意冒犯。集装箱船还是集装箱单元
So we don't dump it down. It's it's Yeah. Without being disrespectful. Container ships ships or container units
集装箱单元。
Container units.
人们在那里生活。度假。我想是度假。他们是度假还是居住?
That people Live in. Vacation in. I think it's vacation. They vacation or live?
嗯,这是短中期用途。短期到中期的搬迁。
Well, it's for short medium term. Short to medium term move.
好的。是的。好的。
Okay. Yeah. Okay.
是的。谢谢你。
Yeah. Thank you.
谢谢你,凯伦。
Thank you, Karen.
谢谢。放下。
Thank you. Down.
放下。我刚才被吊得太高了。
Down. I was way too high grappled.
不用了,没关系。
No. That's okay.
凯伦,你觉得那个怎么样?
And Karen, what do you think of That's
我会这样告诉我的朋友。
how I would tell my friends.
是啊。
Yeah.
嗯,你听说过Auto Camp吗?
Yeah. Have you heard of Auto Camp?
当然听说过。
I sure have.
你觉得Auto Camp怎么样?
What do you think of Auto Camp?
实际上,我在那里住过,确实美得惊人,但它不允许你们任何人购买产权。而我们有机会共同拥有某样东西。啊,好吧。对吧?所以自动露营车是个花大钱买豪华露营装备的好方式。
Actually, I stayed there and, it is absolutely gorgeous, but it doesn't allow any of you guys to buy into it. And we're given the opportunity to co own something. Ah, okay. Right? So auto cam's a great way to spend a a lot of money on a glamping unit.
对吧?但它们都紧挨着排列。所以关键在于空间的重新布局,让真正的自然融入其中。
Right? But they're all stacked next to each other. So it's all about the re relay out of the space so that there is actual nature involved.
多少钱
How much
买一个要花多少钱
does it cost to buy one
你的那些东西?
of your things?
11万。
A 110,000.
需要买地吗?不用。所以就像房车一样。就像个拖车公园。
Do have to buy the land? No. So it's like an RV. It's like a trailer park.
但你把它租出去了,一直在赚钱。
But you rent it out. You make money the whole time.
就像个高档的拖车公园。
It's like a fancy trailer park.
是啊,没关系。我不是在
Yeah. That's okay. I'm not being
不敬。高档的,明白了。
disrespectful. Fancy. Got it.
而且我们也出租,接待公司团建和瑜伽静修。
But also, we rent it out. We get a company off sites and yoga retreats.
你能付2万首付吗?比如20%的首付?
Can you put 20,000 down? Like, 20% down?
当然可以。
Sure. Can.
好的。看来你做成了一笔交易。
Alright. Looks looks like you got a sale.
它们有多少平方英尺?
How many square feet are they?
320平方英尺。但加上带车库门的露台,可以打开,所以
They're 320 square feet. But plus the deck plus the deck with a garage door that opens up so that
这不是一个小的一居室公寓,650对吧?或者不,工作室公寓大概是450。对吧?嗯。
it's not A small one bedroom apartment six fifty. Right? Or no, studio is four fifty probably. Right? Mhmm.
好的。所以这是个工作室公寓。
Okay. So it's a it's a studio apartment.
这是个工作室公寓?
It's a studio apartment?
明白了。
Got it.
是的,在大自然中。
Yep. In nature.
没错。我确实喜欢这个总体构想。首先,我喜欢你推销业务的方式,很有干劲,我很欣赏。
Yeah. I like I actually like this general idea. First, I like that you pitch your business. That's hustling. I like it.
而且我确实喜欢这个创意。我之所以询问Auto Camp,是因为我对...很着迷
And I actually like this idea. And the reason I asked about Auto Camp is because I'm fascinated by
说说Auto Camp是什么。
Say what Auto Camp is.
Auto Camp本质上是豪华露营,就是奢华版的露营体验。如果你想亲近自然但又像我一样不愿处理露营的繁琐事务,它就像是户外版的Airbnb。至少我是这么理解的,当然他们官方介绍可能会用更华丽的辞藻。
So Auto Camp is basically glamping, which is like a glamorous camping experience. It's it's Airbnb if you wanna, like, go out in nature, but you're like me and you don't wanna do any of the work that's involved with going camping. And that's how I think about it, at least. I'm sure they would pitch it slightly more, like, with more flowery words.
这家公司从私募股权那里融到了资金。
Company raised money from private equity.
他们最近融了约1.1亿美元,却只有五家分店,这说明他们肯定赚翻了。
So so they raised about a $110,000,000 recently, and only have about five locations, which means these guys must be printing money.
有人知道私募股权(PE)和风险投资(VC)的区别吗?好。如果你从PE融资,说明你很匹配,而VC更偏向理想化。
And does anyone know the difference between PE and VC? Yeah. Okay. So if you raise from PE, you you're a good fit as far as VC is more aspirational.
VC意味着你的生意前十年会很糟糕,但可能变得巨大。PE则是你的生意现在很棒但他们会把钱抽干。这就是极简版答案
VC is your business is gonna suck for ten years and it might become humongous. PE is your business is awesome now and they'll drain it. So that's the that's the short short short answer
我脑子里对PE融资的理解就是...
for raised from PE in my head. I'm like
对,你的简写意思是他们已经有盈利了。
Yeah. Your shorthand for that means, like, they're already like, they they already have have earnings.
这些地方大约80个单位,价格从每晚430到200多不等。
Places are about 80 units, and they range from 430 a night to 200 and So 30 a
我记得你可以坐回去,不想让你一直站着。有人记得索尼邮件被黑的事吗?我全读了,就想看看里面有没有什么猛料?
I remember you you can sit back down. I don't want you to have to stand the whole time. I remember reading did anybody did anybody remember when Sony's got Sony got their emails hacked? So I I read, like, all of them. And I was like I was I was trying to figure out, like, is there any good stuff in here?
因为邮件被黑总觉得会有些猛料。印象最深的是Snapchat崛起初期的一些有趣邮件,当时索尼CEO好像是Snapchat董事,所以有些不错的料。
Because, you know, an email hack, you would think there's some good stuff. The one thing I remember that stuck out was there's some cool emails early on when Snapchat was on the rise, and I think the guy who was CEO of Sony or or whatever at the time, he was, like, on the board of Snapchat. So he had some good, like Yeah.
原始记忆
Raw remember
他的想法是,你知道,他并不知道这些会被公开,所以他当时对业务的看法是实话实说。另外我觉得有趣的是,有个家伙给索尼的高层发了邮件。他就像是个潮流观察员之类的角色。不知道你是否了解,像唱片公司和时尚品牌,他们都有专门负责发现潮流趋势的人。这些人会走遍全球,试图找出流行趋势。
thoughts of, you know, he didn't know these were gonna be public, so he was telling the truth about what he thought about the business. And the other thing that I thought was interesting was some guy wrote an email to the to the top guy at Sony. He was like a like a trend spotter type of guy. I don't know if you know about this, but, like, record labels and fashion brands, they have people who are trend spotters. They go all around the world and just try to look for what the trends are.
这家伙提出了三点。他说,电子舞曲是这一代人的摇滚乐。你必须明白这一点。第二点
And this guy was like he's like three things. And he said, EDM is the rock and roll of this generation. You need to know that. Two
那确实说对了。
That that was right.
完全正确。他接着说,这一代人热爱音乐节。总的来说,就是喜欢那种即开即用的户外体验——完全不用费心筹备,却能置身大自然,远离电脑。
That was right. That was totally spot on. And he's like, related, this generation loves festivals. He's like, in general, turnkey turnkey outdoor experiences. So zero effort, but I get to be out in nature, away from my computer.
某种程度上这是对我们总待在室内、坐在办公桌前、时刻联网的生活状态的反抗。他说这些趋势很重要。第三点是额外加分项——如果活动适合发Instagram。我亲眼见证过这个趋势。比如我们之前讨论过的冰淇淋博物馆,它就位于
It's sort of a response to the fact that we're always sort of indoors, at a desk, connected at all times. He's like, those are those are big. And number three was bonus points if it's Instagram And and I've actually seen this play out. So, like, when we talked about the ice cream museum It's down
这条街上。
the street.
所有这些想法实际上都符合同一个理念:如何打造即插即用且适合在Instagram上分享的体验。我们一起参加了斯巴达比赛,感觉也是一样的。这是一种即时的体验,让你觉得自己很坚强,或者像我这样觉得自己身材走样,沿途还有适合拍照发Ins的时刻。我们之前还讨论过另一个类似的想法,就是Studs。Studs是一家位于纽约的新创公司,我觉得很有意思。
And and all these ideas, they all actually fit this same, like, ethos of how do you get turnkey experience with Instagrammable moments. We did a Spartan race together, and it's the same thing. It's a, you know, turnkey, you feel like you're tough, or if you're me, you feel like you're out of shape, and then, like, you know, Instagrammable experiences along the way. There's one other idea that we were talking earlier about that's that's sort of like this, which is Studs. So Studs is a new startup that's based in New York that I thought was pretty interesting.
他们做的事情是研究商场里哪些业务受欢迎。比如你去打耳洞的地方。那里有很多
What they're doing is they looked at what was working in inside malls. So place you go get your you go get your ear pierced. There's a lot of
男性顾客。我不太确定。
men here. I don't know.
我看到有人点头。要么是你们在撒谎,要么是他们
I saw some nods. They're either you lying or they are they,
你知道的,商场里。以前卖的是廉价耳环。
you know They're mall. Was like cheap earrings.
对。就是那种年轻人或青少年去打耳洞的地方。比如Claire's在全球有4000家门店,2007年以30亿美元的价格被收购,规模相当可观。
Yeah. It's like where you go to get your ears pierced if you're, like, young if you're, like, you know, a tween. And so so Claire's has, like, 4,000 locations around the world. They were doing, like, you know they sold it, you know, in 2007 for $3,000,000,000. So they built a, you know, a sizable business.
但他们去年仍有15亿美元的销售额。
But they still had a billion and a half in sales last year.
是的,去年销售额达到15亿。所以这是个很大的生意,但有点过时了。比如Claire's、Hot Topic这些,都是90年代商场里很受欢迎的店铺。而Studs所做的就是重新构想它。
Yeah. A billion and a half in sales last year. And so it's a big business, but it's, like, kind of outdated. Like, Claire's, Hot Topic, these were all, like, popular mall stores back in the nineties. And so what Studs is doing is just reimagined it.
所以这是个看起来很酷的地方。店里每个角落都适合发Instagram。你会想在那里自拍并分享出去。而且你是在穿耳洞,这是种互联网难以替代的服务。不太可能直接线上完成穿耳洞。
So it's a cool looking place. Like, every part of the store is, like, Instagramable. Like, you would you would wanna take a photo of yourself there and share it out. And you're getting your ears pierced, which is something that's, like, Internet resistant. Like, it's not, like probably not gonna get, like, direct to consumer ear piercing.
因此你需要实体店来做这个。当整个零售业都在衰退时,有一小部分零售业态正在蓬勃发展。这些本质上都是互联网难以替代的生意。我对这些很感兴趣,也在思考还可能有哪些类似业态。
So so you need to be you need a physical location to do this. And when all of retail is dying, there's a small segment of retail that's thriving. And these are things that are that are essentially Internet resistant businesses. And so I'm very interested in those and thinking through what what more those might be. So, like
我们应该聊聊那些我们认为行不通的事情,我会把这个归入我的类别。
We we should talk about things that we think won't work, and I would put that in my category.
是啊,你为什么要唱反调呢?
Yeah. Why are you betting against?
我觉得它太花哨了。我认为问题在于有些人,特别是旧金山和纽约的人,他们只考虑为旧金山、纽约或洛杉矶的人打造产品。我最喜欢的公司之一是Wish,wish.com。有人没听说过Wish吗?还是有一些的。
I think it's too cute. And I think that I think there's a problem with people, particularly in San Francisco and New York, who build things only for San Francisco and New York or LA people. So one of my favorite companies is Wish, wish.com. Has anyone not heard of Wish? Some people.
不过也没那么多。好吧,去年的话可能会更多些
Not that many, though. Okay. Last year, it would have been or a few like
几年前。是啊。
few years ago. Yeah.
好吧。但wish.com,他们有附近功能。他们已经火了五年了。不只是火,我觉得,大概每月有100亿用户。可以说是地球上最火的网站之一。
Okay. But wish.com, they have nearby. They've been popular for five years now. And not just popular, like, I think, like, 10,000,000,000 users a month. Like, one of the most popular websites on Earth.
不是100亿用户,是别的什么。100亿
Not 10,000,000,000 users, but something else. 10,000,000,000
用户。抱歉。
users. Sorry.
这比全球人口还多。抱歉。
It's more than the human population. Sorry.
我是说10次会话,网页会话。我搞错了。对。我有个工具能估算网页会话量。所以实际用户可能有十亿。
I meant 10 like sessions, like web web sessions. I have sorry. Yeah. I have a tool that guess web sessions. So that would potentially be a billion users.
但规模已经大到我和创始人在脸书上互加好友了。其实我不认识他,但不知怎么就成了脸书好友。他总爱分享截图,比如'我们本月下载量超过Instagram了'。
But it was big enough that I'm friends with the founder on Facebook. I don't actually know him, but we became Facebook friends somehow. And he always shares a screenshot. He's like, we downloaded more than Instagram this month.
对。
Right.
原来它这么大。总之我喜欢它们,因为它们生产的东西正是我来自的美国中部青少年会买的。真正让我愤怒的是这些公司
So that's how big it is. Anyway, I love them because they made stuff that teenagers in Middle America, where I'm from Would buy. Would buy. And what always angers me about these companies
所以你不喜欢Soul Cycle那种,类似Barry's Boot Camp类型的公司?
So you don't like the soul cycle type of, like, Barry's Boot Camp type of companies?
不,我喜欢。只是我认为并非所有事都该那样运作。Claire's的意义在于它卖的是年轻人没钱时想要的廉价商品,这自有其价值。
No. I like them. I just think that not everything works that way. The whole point of Claire's was that it was, like, shitty stuff that young people don't have any money want, and there's that serves a purpose. Yeah.
但很多新公司不为那个群体生产商品。
But a lot of new companies don't make stuff for that demographic.
我的观点是而且
My thing is And
我觉得...这说不通。就像那种高端路线,类似千禧粉的营销概念。
I and I think that, like, that's it doesn't make sense to me. Yeah. This it's like a high end it's like at that millennial pink thing. It's like Right.
太像了,就像在说‘别踩我的草坪’。对。不。我只是,我只是
Too it's too you're like, get off my lawn. Yeah. No. I just I just
我只是觉得存在差距。我认为大多数人起点太高档太沿海,你知道我比那更喜欢什么吗?是Fashion Nova。你们知道Fashion Nova吗?好吧。
I just think that there's a gap. I think that most people start too high end and too coastal when you there's know what I love way more than that? It's Fashion Nova. You guys know Fashion Nova? Okay.
Fashion Nova。
Fashion Nova.
解释一下商业模式。
Explain the business model.
谁不知道Fashion Nova?哇。好吧。
Who doesn't know Fashion Nova? Wow. Okay.
它是新的Wish。
It's it's the new wish.
Fashion Nova太棒了。一年时间——我是说,它现在规模相当大了。由一位中东移民白手起家创办,这也是我喜欢它的另一个原因。他在洛杉矶。他父母有家商场店铺,类似Claire's,卖的是...有人去过纽约见过那些卖女装牛仔裤和女装的店铺吗?全是仿货而且质量很差?
Fashion Nova is awesome. A year I mean, it's pretty it's pretty big now. Bootstrapped by a Middle Eastern guy, an immigrant, which is another reason why I like it. And he's in LA. His parents had a mall store, like Claire's, that sold really Has anyone been to New York and seen these stores that sell women jeans and women clothing that are all knockoffs and not really low quality?
那是他父母经营的生意。然后他就想,我应该在网上卖这个。于是他直接上Instagram,给年轻女性们提供造型古怪的衣服,她们会穿,但这几乎成了个笑话,就像World Star Hip Hop那种——你知道年轻男孩看到打架时会喊'World Star'对吧?他们用所有这些Instagram模特打广告,结果Fashion Nova出现在所有地方都成了个梗。但后来发现这些衣服其实还挺酷的。
That's what his parents ran. And he's like, I should sell this online. And so he went right to Instagram and gave funny looking clothes to young women and they would wear it, but it became a joke, almost like world star hip hop, where it was fat you know how young guys will yell whenever there's a fight, they yell like, world star. Well, they advertise with all these Instagram models that it became a joke that Fashion Nova was on everything. And it turned out that they're actually kind of cool.
所以Fashion Nova现在应该是Shopify上规模最大的店铺之一。这个年收入6亿美元的时尚品牌,卖的都是非常廉价低质的衣服,但带着点搞笑和酷劲。
And so Fashion Nova is I think it's one of the largest Shopify stores out there. And it's like a $600,000,000 a year fashion brand. And they sell really cheap low quality clothes, but they're kinda like funny and cool.
没错。
Right.
现在Cardi B都成了他们的代言人。
It's like Cardi B is now their spokesperson.
他们在网红营销上简直疯狂。只要你顺着正确的Instagram兔子洞往下滑,到处都能看到Fashion Nova。
And and they just went crazy on the influencer side. So, like, if you go down the right Instagram rabbit hole, you will see Fashion Nova everywhere.
但这是个面向普通大众销售的典型案例。价格亲民,有点搞笑,还把自己植入了文化潮流中心。
But that's an example of people selling to relatively normal folks. Right. It's affordable. It's kinda funny. They put themselves in the middle of culture.
我喜欢这种模式。Gymshark是另一个走同样路线的酷品牌。
I like that. Gymshark's another cool one that did the same thing.
是的,是的。我也喜欢那些业务。好吧,我想把话题转向提问环节。
Yeah. Yeah. I like those businesses too. All right. I want to turn it over questions.
哦,你想
Oh, do you want to
做一些我们认为不会成功或者我们想做的事情
do things that we don't think will work or we want to do
几个问题?来吧,你有什么想问的?
few questions? Let's do it. What do you got?
你为什么不直接说呢?我们总是讨论那些我们认为会成功的事情。让我们聊聊那些我们认为不会成功的事情吧。
Why don't you say your so we always talk about things that we think will work. Let's talk about things we think won't work.
黑子模式。
Hater mode.
而我尽量不这样做,因为我总是尊重那些尝试某事的人,即使那很愚蠢。对吧。你想从你的开始吗?
And I try never to do this because I always respect someone who tries something even if it is stupid. Right. You wanna start with yours?
好吧,明确地说,我们尊重他们。
Well, be clear, they have our respect.
是啊。
Yeah.
但我们认为这很愚蠢。
But we think it's stupid.
没错。好的。
Yep. Okay.
所以,获得资格的方式是大多数人认为这是个好生意,但我们实际上认为它可能是个糟糕的生意。
So the the the way you qualify for this is most people think this is a good business, but we actually think it might be a bad business.
我同意你说的大部分观点。我想你也是这么看我的。
And I agree with you on most things that you've said. I think you do me.
所以我们之前私下闲聊时讨论过这些。结果山姆把它们记下来了,现在我们要公开讨论了。好吧,说说Patreon。Patreon并不是个适合被讨厌的企业,因为它可以说是最友善的企业。
So we were doing this kind of in the back just shooting the shit. Turns out Sam wrote them down, and now we're doing it live. Okay. So Patreon. So Patreon is is not a cool business to hate on because it's, like, the nicest business.
说说Patreon是什么
Say what Patreon it
基本上它让任何独立创作者——比如博主、播客主等等——都能直接向粉丝寻求支持。可以说:‘嘿粉丝们,直接支持我吧,每月给我5美元,这能帮助我继续创作。’
basically lets any indie creator so you're a blogger, a podcaster, whatever. You can say, hey, fans. Support me directly. Give me $5 a month. That'll help me do my art.
比如我可以用这个节目来做这件事。我觉得这真的很酷,但尽管这是个好点子,我认为Patreon会成为一门糟糕的生意。
So I could do that with this show, for example. I think that's a really cool thing. I think Patreon is gonna be a bad business even though that's a cool thing.
我觉得它会是最糟糕的生意。
I think it's gonna be the worst business.
原因是...你知道的,糟糕总是相对的。他们融资时设定了高预期,拿了很多风投的钱。我记得他们最近一轮融了5000万美元。
The reason why is they went it's you know, bad is always relative. Right? So it's high expectations. They raised VC money, a lot of VC money. I think I don't know what their I think they raised $50,000,000 in their last round.
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这意味着他们目标是朝着十亿美元以上的估值退出。但另一方面,他们的商业模式是从赞助捐款中抽成5%。简单计算就知道:要达到百亿美元估值,需要年收入1亿美元,意味着平台流水要达到这个数字的20倍。我认为这根本不可能实现。
So that means they're trying to track towards, like, a billion dollar plus exit. And on the other side, you have the business model, which is to take essentially 5% of the patronage donations. And so if you just sort of calculate out, you're like, alright. To get to, you know, to be a billion dollar business, you need to be about a 100,000,000 in revenue as a as a business, which means they're gonna need to make 20 times that is needs to be flowing through their system. And I just don't think that's ever gonna happen.
而且我觉得这个模式高度同质化。比如我在Twitch工作,我们已经有内置的观众打赏主播功能。
And I don't think that and I also think that's, like, highly commoditized. Like, I work at Twitch. We have a built in way for you to give money to broadcasters.
你知道有多少人能说出有多少人在看吗?我认为这很糟糕的原因是,我见过媒体公司募捐,这简直是门糟糕的生意。
Do you know how many can you say how many peep so the reason I think it's bad is I have seen media companies, when they ask for donations, it's a horrible business.
对,你可以看看
Right. And you can look
就像,几乎没人会这么做。维基百科能成功募捐的唯一原因是它是全国乃至全球最受欢迎的网站之一。我不认为人们会主动捐款。我喜欢Substack这个新闻订阅平台,因为它的模式是‘你给我钱,我就让你获取我的信息’,而不是恳求式的‘请资助我’。
Like, very few people ever the only reason Wikipedia does it is because it's the most popular website in the country or in the world, like or one of I don't think that people donate money. I like Substack, which is a newsletter subscription company because people give you give it's not, please It's give me I'll allow you to get my information if you give me money.
对。嗯。嗯。嗯。这是有区别的。
Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a difference.
为产品付费和打赏是两回事。
Paying for a product versus, like, tipping.
是啊。所以我的问题是
Yeah. I think And so my question is
从Twitch就能看出来,人们确实会大量打赏。他们明明可以免费获取内容,却依然自愿为某些东西掏钱。整个Twitch的商业模式就是建立在这个基础上的
So from Twitch, can tell you people definitely do tip, like, a lot. People definitely just voluntarily give money to things that they could also get the content for free. The whole Twitch business model's off that based off that
商业模式,对吧?
business model, it?
大部分收入
The majority of revenue
会会到账的。
will will come through.
真的吗?是啊。很多人都有这种行为。但我要说的是,糟糕的部分在于当你只抽取5%的分成时,你占的份额太小了。比如Twitch,默认分成比例是五五开。
Really? Yeah. So a lot of people do this behavior. But what I would say is that the bad part is when you're taking, like, a 5% cut of of that, you have such a small you have such a small share. And so, like, you know, for Twitch, I think the default share is fifty fifty.
50%可比5%高多了。我记得Patreon曾试图提高到7%,结果所有人都反对。这说明他们基本没有提升抽成比例的空间。
50% is way more than the sort of 5%. And I think Patreon tried to up it to, like, 7% once, and everyone revolted. And so that show, they basically have no, like, headroom to to take a bigger bigger cut of this.
区别在于他们大多是艺术家。对吧?如果我们要刻板印象的话,他们本来就没多少钱。所以每多抽一点比例...对吧。
Difference because they're, like, artists. So, like Right. If we're gonna stereotype them, they probably don't have a lot of money in the first place. And so any percentage more Right.
有人爬取了Patreon顶级创作者的数据,发现最顶尖的创作者规模也不大。所以在我看来,这有点说不通,经不起推敲。
And some guy went and scraped all the top Patreon pages to see who's making the most, and, like, the top people are not very big. And so it just to me, it's, like, I don't know. It doesn't add up. It doesn't pass the sniff test.
我们再来一次。对,萤火虫。你们见过那些Uber车吗,哦你在Uber工作过,那你可能知道一点
Let's do one more. Yeah. Firefly. So have you guys seen these Ubers with the oh, you worked at Uber. So you maybe know a
一点点
little bit
关于车顶有广告的Uber车
about Ubers with the ad on the top.
就像是
It's like It's
像是把Uber弄得像出租车一样
like making an Uber look like a taxi.
我们聊过...我和他们聊过...我们可以...对。对。好的。他们刚开始种子轮融资时我们就接触过
We talked I talked to those we can we Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So we talked to these guys when they were first raising their seed round. Yeah.
我们看过他们的融资企划书,当时很有前景。不过我觉得这事成不了
And we saw the deck and it was promising. I don't think it's gonna work, though.
你当时也不这么想。是啊,因为我们没投资。
You didn't think so at the time either. Yeah. Because we didn't invest.
没错。确实。他们后来融资了好几亿。
On it Yeah. On it. They have since raised money hundreds of millions
看起来他们做得风生水起,可能确实如此。但我总觉得这事很怪,毕竟你曾在Uber工作过。我一直认为这是个巨大的平台风险。如果我
of It looks like they're doing phenomenal, and they might be. I always just thought it was weird because like, you used to work at Uber. I always just thought this is a huge platform risk. If I
是Uber,我会说滚出去。
was Uber, I would say get off.
是啊。因为如果Uber哪天决定——随着规模扩大,Uber可能会说,嘿,那看起来是个不错的收入来源,我们该自己掌控。
Yeah. Because if Uber ever decides if it the bigger this gets, Uber might say, hey, that looks like a good revenue stream we should own.
我的理解是——虽然我可能错了,但也可能是对的——我认为在一个平台上创业虽然可行但极不安全。Zynga做到了。但依托单一平台做生意风险极高。而他们只有两个平台,Lyft和Uber。
And the learning of this, I think but I'm wrong still, but I might be right, is I think you it's impossible to build a it's very unsafe, but it's doable. Zynga did it. It's very unsafe to build a business on top of one platform. And they only have two platforms, Lyft and Uber.
对。是啊。完全同意。我一点都不看好这个生意。
Right. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. I don't I don't love this don't love this business at all.
我认识一个人,他的公司去年一月差点以两亿美元被收购,结果Facebook改了算法,三月份公司就倒闭了。
I know a guy who had a a company that was about to sell for $200,000,000 last January, Facebook changed their algorithm, and it went out of business in March. It went
我知道你说的是哪家。是一家媒体公司对吧?
I know the one you're talking about. It's a media company. Right?
对,对,没错。我们就不点名了。是的。
Yep. Yep. Yeah. We won't say it. Yeah.
但这是真事。可能还上过新闻,我认为Firefly和任何依赖平台的公司都会遭遇同样命运。
But it's a true story. It was in the news probably, and I think that's exactly what will happen to Firefly and any company that builds on top of a platform.
我记得你刚开始创业时总说:必须做Facebook视频、Snapchat。快去Snapchat,那里最火。因为这些平台当时风头正劲。但你非常坚持,说'我要做邮件营销,因为这样我才能真正拥有自己的用户群体'。
I remember when you were starting the hustle, was like, you need to do Facebook, video, Snapchat. Get go to Snapchat. Snapchat's where it's at because all these things were hot and trendy. And you were very adamant. You're like, I'm gonna do email because I'm not, you know, I'm not you know, I own my community then.
对吧?这些是我能直接联系的人。我不需要依赖Facebook。
Right? Like, these are people I have a direct relationship with. I'm not dependent on Facebook.
这让Uber显得...很蠢。看起来很low。而且我觉得...
And it makes Uber Yeah. Stupid. It makes it look trashy. And also, I think it's
萤火虫星球。给你,山姆得一分。嗯,虽然他们还保持着100分,但你知道的
Firefly Planet. There you go. One point for Sam. Well, with They're they're still up, a 100, but like, you know
太糟糕了。
It sucks.
我不想 我不希望他们
Don't want I don't want them to
失败。对。我只是觉得
fail. Right. I just think that
一点都不想吗?
Not even a little bit?
不。我不想 我不
No. I don't want I don't
希望任何冒险的人
want anyone who's taking a risk
会失败,但我想
to fail, but I think
它会的。这很糟糕,因为司机们以为他们每月能赚200或300美元。我当然希望这些人都能赢,希望一切顺利。但我也认为,当两三年后经济衰退来临时,这种品牌广告将会消失。
it will. And it sucks because the drivers make they prop I think they promise 2 or $300 a month for drivers. So, of course, I want all these guys to win. I want it be great. I also think that in a when a recession happens in two or three years, brand advertising, which is what that is, it won't it's going to go away.
会萎缩。就是萎缩。我认为更多人会把钱花在Facebook、Instagram和未来可能存在的TikTok上,而这类广告将会消失。我敢打赌他们最终融资时的估值,比所有出租车广告收入总和还要高。
Shrinks. It's shrink. And I think that the stock I think that more people are going to pay money on Facebook and Instagram and whatever is gonna exist, TikTok, and that type of advertising is gonna go away. The valuation that they eventually raised at, I bet you was more revenue than all the taxi advertising did as a whole.
对。他们能转型吗?总有办法转型的。但能成功转型吗?
Right. Yeah. There any way they can pivot? There's always a way you can pivot. Can you pivot successfully?
你会怎么做?
What would you do?
我...我不知道。
I I don't.
假设他们还有些资产。比如银行里有存款,有一万名司机网络,车顶都安装了他们的设备。
So you let's say you get they have some assets. Right? Let's say they're gonna have they have money in the bank. They have a network of drivers. Let's call it 10,000 drivers that have their unit installed on top.
这能让他们做什么?他们如何能从中跳跃到其他有趣的事物?你有什么想法吗?
What does that allow them to do? How does that how how can they leapfrog from that to something else interesting? Is there anything that comes to mind?
他们说掌握了大量关于车辆行驶路线的信息。你们正在尝试建立无人驾驶汽车公司,或许这里有些机会。
They said they had loads of information on where the cars were going. You you're trying to build driverless car company. Maybe there's something there.
车内的设备呢?平台上还留着的那个设备呢?真是糟糕。那关于
What about the device inside the car? What about the device that's still on the platform? That's a shit. What about
你们仍然依赖平台,但这已经不那么令人反感了。
You're still platform dependent, but that's way less obnoxious.
确实如此。城市不会...城市不会...
That's way yeah. You're not the city's not gonna the city's not
会认真对待的。
gonna be serious.
我明白了。哦。我很惊讶它
I have it. Oh. I'm surprised it's
不算糟糕,
not horrible,
老实说。真的。我其实
honestly. Honestly. I actually
你觉得他们看起来不错吗?
They I think they you think they look good?
我喜欢它们。我本来就喜欢广告。通勤时看怎么样?
I like them. I just like ads generally. What about on a commuter?
你喜欢广告。好吧。
You like ads. Okay.
你会为了额外300美元把广告贴在你车上吗?
Would you put that on your car for an extra $300?
我个人不会。但我能想象那些通勤路上需要额外300美元的人可能会为此买单
Personally, I would not. But I can imagine people who need an extra $300 during the commute probably pays for
那个。我能看出来
that. I could see that
也是。没错。
too. Yeah.
之所以有效是因为他们在路上。而且
The reason it works is they're on the road. And
他们是免费安装的。
they install them for free.
有很多车开往旧金山。是的。而且你可能是用你的
There's lot of cars driving to San Francisco. Yeah. And you probably run it off your your
商务用车。快速问一下,你提到平台之类的东西不太依赖它们。但像Shopify或亚马逊这样的呢?那是另一种
cars for business. Quick question about you're mentioning platforms and things sort of not too reliant on them. But what about something like Shopify or Amazon? That's a different kind of So
平台有两种类型。我记得Facebook当年发布他们的平台时有个故事,就像,嘿,你可以在Facebook上开发游戏。这会很棒的。他们被誉为下一个伟大的平台。
there's so there's two types of platforms. I remember there's a story of Facebook back in the day released their Facebook platform, which was like, hey. You can build games on Facebook. This is gonna be awesome. And they were being hailed as, like, the next great platform.
有个故事我不知道真假,但我读到的是:扎克伯格去见比尔·盖茨,展示Facebook平台。要知道微软曾是上一个巨型平台——就是那个能运行各种应用程序的微软操作系统。结果盖茨说这简直是胡扯。
And, the story I don't know if this is true or not, but the story I read was, Zuck goes and meets with Bill Gates, and it's showing about Facebook platform. And, really, Microsoft was the last the the previous, like, huge platform. Right? The the Microsoft operating system that had all these different apps you can you can use on on it. And, and Bill Gates was like, this is horseshit.
他说这根本不算平台。扎克伯格反问什么意思,说开发者可以基于此开发。盖茨表示平台的定义不是这样的,真正的平台战略应该是:所有基于它开发的应用程序总价值超过平台本身。
Like, this is not, this is not a platform. He said, what do you mean? Like, developers can build on this. He's like, that's not what a platform means. A platform is where the the strategy is for the all for the sum of all the apps that get built on this to be worth more than the platform itself.
就像微软虽然是巨头,但所有能在微软系统上运行的程序总企业价值超过了微软自身。这就是他们的战略逻辑:应用软件越成功,就能卖出更多操作系统,所以必须确保应用在我们的平台上胜出。
So, like, although Microsoft was always a huge company, if you added up the value of all the different programs that could run on Microsoft, the total enterprise value of those was greater than than the value of Microsoft. And that was that was their strategy. It was like, we will be able to sell more operating systems if we have more apps. Therefore, we need to make sure the apps win on our platform. Otherwise, we can't sell our operating system.
那第二种呢?
And the second one?
是
It was
截然不同的模式。第二种更像Facebook和Twitter的做法:我们拥有海量用户,人们出于热情来开发产品。我们会开放部分接口让他们尝试构建。
very different. The second is, like, more like what Facebook did, what Twitter did, which is like, hey. We got a whole bunch of users, and we got people trying to build stuff because they're all enthusiastic. We'll give them some access to try to build some things.
必须说明的是,第二种模式也造就了巨头企业。关键在于要趁早入场,并且擅长快速多元化。比如Movement Watches(我们一位在HustleCon演讲的朋友创立的品牌)以1亿美元被收购,他们成功打造了年轻人喜爱的品牌。Blue Apron和Plated那些公司也是HustleCon演讲嘉宾。但那位创始人跟我说,现在不可能复制了,因为获客成本太高,他们当年是靠早期入场才积累起品牌资产的。亚马逊就是个典型例子。
And for the record, huge companies have been built in the second The the idea, though, is you gotta get in while the getting's good and you've got to be really good at diversifying great fast. So, for example, Movement Watches, one of our friends who's spoken at House of God's Bootstrap sold the company for $100,000,000, they built a brand and young people like that brand. Blue Apron and plated whatever those also HustleCon speakers. I was talking to him and he was like, we couldn't build that thing now because the cost to acquire a customer is way too expensive and we didn't get in early enough to build this brand equity. So the idea is Amazon's a good example.
亚马逊之所以能做大,完全是因为谷歌的AdWords广告平台,或者不管叫什么广告平台
Amazon totally got big because of Google AdWords or what are the ads that whatever the ads platform
AdSense。
AdSense.
AdSense。不管叫什么。他们确实做大了。他们曾是谷歌最大的客户,但他们建立了自己的品牌。是的。
AdSense. Whatever it is. They got big. They they were the biggest customer of Google, but they built a brand. Yeah.
所以这是有可能的。我只是不认为...
So it is possible. I just don't think it's
你想要摆脱依赖。Josh Ellman有个很棒的演讲,他是这里的风投,曾在Twitter、LinkedIn和Facebook负责增长业务,职业生涯很成功。他做了个演讲,题目大概是《在火箭上再造火箭》之类的。他真正想说的是:
You wanna you wanna escape. There's a great talk that this guy, Josh Ellman, he's a VC here who he he ran growth at, like, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook. Like, he's had a good career. And so he wrote he gave a talk called, like, building building a rocket ship on the back of a rocket ship or something like that. And, really, what he's talking about is, hey.
当这些平台存在时固然很好,你可以轻松借助它们实现增长,但你必须确保建立足够的逃逸速度快速脱离它们,因为长期依赖它们无法生存。所以,在考虑平台带来优势的同时,更要像Zynga那样思考如何构建自己的退出策略。
It's great when these platforms are around. You can go get some easy growth on top of them, but you gotta make sure you're building escape velocity to get off them quickly because you will not survive living off them. And so, when just as much as you're thinking about all of all the advantages you're getting, you better be thinking about how you're gonna build your escape off of those platforms like Zynga did.
我们确实通过Facebook获得了很大增长。当时有位顾问告诉我:要保持警惕。我确实一直保持警惕。我们开始多元化发展,虽然过程艰难,但最终奏效了。
We grew a lot from Facebook. And when we were doing that, an adviser told me, get paranoid. And I was paranoid the whole time. And we began diversifying, and it has hurt us, but it worked.
没错。就像Native公司在播客里提到的——你知道的,他们谈到如何利用Facebook销售大部分产品,但他们始终在努力获取客户邮箱地址。然后通过邮件进行再营销,这样就不依赖信息流推送了。他们还通过实体店等渠道多元化发展,现在进入实体店后,对Facebook的依赖就降低了。
Right. Like Native, who was on the podcast when he was talking you know, he talks about how they use Facebook, and that's how they sell the majority of their product, but they're constantly trying to grab customer email addresses. And then they remarket via email so they're not relying on the news feed. They diversify through like, now they're in stores. So now that they're in stores, they're less reliant on the Facebook relationship.
所以他们一直在努力构建这些不同的资产和与客户的不同关系
So they're always trying to build those different assets and different relationships with customers
以便
so that
你不局限于单一渠道。
you're not one channel.
如果我
If I
必须从零开始,我认为目前最好的平台之一是Facebook群组。在座的各位都加入我们的Facebook群组了吗?我们的内容总是出现在顶部吗?我所有的群组都显示在顶部。
had to start from scratch, I think one of the platforms that's best right now is Facebook groups. Is that is every is everyone who's in transit, you guys in our Facebook group? Does our stuff show up at the top all the time? Every group I have shows up at top.
实际上会是通知提醒。
It's actually gonna be notifications.
老兄,谢了。他们公开宣布过,他们的策略是推广群组。所以现在别做页面,要做群组。算法现在偏爱这个,但也别指望永远如此,因为等哪天他们觉得群组不香了。
Man, thank you. Well, they they publicly announced they were like, our strategy is to promote groups. So that means right now, like, don't make a page. Like, make a group. It's the algorithm is favoring it, but also don't try to live there forever because the day that they decide that group is not the thing.
我知道这招管用,因为扎克伯格去年二月在公告里说过。就像我说的,正是这个公告搞垮了我很多朋友的公司。他们说会优先展示群组内容。你去BART地铁站和其他地方看广告,全在推群组。他们品牌广告投什么,就是最想推什么。
I know this works because Zuckerberg said this in an announcement last Feb. This was the same announcement, like I said, that killed a lot of my friend's company. They said we're prioritizing group content among other things. But if you go down to BART and all the other places and the commercials, they're advertising groups. And so whatever they're spending on their brand advertising, that's the thing they want to succeed most.
所以你至少还有两年时间能吃到红利,之后谁知道呢?这就是那种需要逆向思考的情况——既然知道通过群组在Facebook上能免费获得好效果,那就反推:我能建什么优质群组?基于这个群组又能开发什么产品或平台外商业?
So you have at least two years where that is still gonna be, like, the focal point, and then who knows after that? And so I that's one of those where you say work backwards from distribution. It's like, well, if I knew this is gonna work great on Facebook through groups, which is not even pay you're not paying for ads, you could just work backwards from that. Like, what's a great group I could build? And then based off that group, what's a great, you know, sort of product or or sort of off platform commerce I could do?
所以,那个,
So, like,
再问个五六分钟吧。对了,我们本来要推出一款趋势产品,结果被毙掉了。我们合作过一个经手500家公司交易的经纪人,调研了大量亚马逊企业,估值都低得离谱——就因为这个原因。悄悄说。
five or ten more minutes of questions. Cool. And one of the products that we were gonna come out with for trends and they actually got shut down was we worked with a guy who had sold roughly 500 companies as a broker and we looked at a ton of Amazon companies and their valuations were horrible because that same reason. Quietly. Quietly.
对。所以他经手那些亚马逊卖家的公司,成交价就一两倍利润。比如年收入1000万或500万,利润100万的公司,只能卖80万。如果有人
Yeah. And and so we we sold or he was he was selling companies that were selling on Amazon for like one or two times earning. So if a company made like 10,000,000 in revenue or let's say 5,000,000 in revenue, 1,000,000 in profit, they would sell like $800,000. If anyone were
保持同样的
to maintain the same
从宏观角度看,我们公司的获客成本是四五倍,斯科特?五倍。也就是说,我们现在获取一个客户的支出是一年前的五倍。这太疯狂了。马里布,
and put that in perspective, our company, four or five x, Scott? Five. So we spend five times more to acquire one customer as we did one year ago. That's crazy. Malibu,
你有什么想法?没有。
what you got? No.
我认为他们未来几十年还会持续创新。斯科特,Instagram便宜吗?当初我创业时——不想透露太多——这么说吧,假设每个订阅用户价值20美元。那时我们能用1.5美元获取一个客户。
I think that they're gonna continue innovating for another many decades. Scott, is is Instagram cheap? So So when I started the company, I don't wanna reveal too much, but let's just say that, like, I'm gonna make up these numbers. Let's say one subscriber to us is worth $20. We were able to acquire a customer for a dollar 50.
现在这个数字变成了五到十倍,有时甚至十倍。在我看来,这意味着像我这样的公司现在重新起步成本会非常高。不过Facebook还有其他很棒的广告产品,比如我刚才提到的群组功能。
Now it's five or 10 times that. Some days it's 10. And in my opinion, that just means that the a company like mine cannot be be really expensive to start again now. That said, there's all these other ad products on Facebook that are really good. For example, like I said, groups.
群组功能太棒了。你可以通过Facebook广告以极低成本吸引用户加入群组。我觉得还有很多机会。这周末我在Oculus上花了几个小时,感觉那里将来会充满广告。所以我认为常规Facebook广告位确实越来越贵,但绝对还有很大潜力,特别是对你们这样利润率可观的企业。
Groups are awesome. You can acquire you can advertise advertise on Facebook and get someone to join your group for really cheaply. And so I think that there's other things. I spent hours on on Oculus this weekend, and I think that's gonna have so many ads in it. So my opinion is that the normal Facebook ad placements are definitely getting more expensive, but it's not definitely, there's still a lot of juice left in there, particularly for you guys if the margin's there.
那我们再回答几个问题吧。
So we'll do a couple more couple more questions.
政治广告?Instagram和Facebook都禁止政治广告?不,我不关心那些。我只专注自己的领域。
Political ads? So Instagram is banned political ads and Facebook ads. No. I don't care about that stuff. I save my lane.
最近怎么样?我有个关于Facebook群组的快速问题。
What's up? I have a quick question about the Facebook group.
不是我不关心,只是我对此一无所知。我们的朋友
Not that I don't care. I just don't know anything about it. Our friend
曾经有家公司
had a company that
拉蒙有个...你想讲这个故事吗?什么?好吧,拉蒙,我们的朋友有个针对相同人群建立的生意,他的群组里有40万人。他从一个群组开始,然后细分兴趣。主要是肥皂剧相关的。
Ramon had a you wanna tell the story? What? Well, Ramon had our friend had a business built on top of that same demographic, and he had 400,000 people in his groups. And he started with one group and made it, like, sub interest. Now it was mostly soap operas.
是的。所以他基本上把人引流到博客。在那里他获取邮箱地址,博客就是用来打广告的,因为他有足够大的规模可以这么做。
Yes. So he he basically drove him to a blog. There, he captured the email address and the blog. He just did advertising because he had enough scale where he could do it that way.
但他主要的方式是把人引到博客,再导入Facebook群组,然后在群组里发布文章收集邮箱,再回到博客,再回到群组。形成非常闭环的循环,直到他把生意卖掉。他的流量分布得特别均匀。所以在我看来,从大Facebook群组起步和从大邮箱列表起步是一样的。你可以很好地按不同兴趣细分——无论是字面上还是比喻意义上的兴趣群体。
But one of the major the way that he did it was he got people to a blog, head into a Facebook group, and then from a Facebook group, he would post articles in there and then collect emails, and then back to the blog, and then back to the group. And it's very circular to the point where he sold it. His traffic was, like, perfectly broken evenly. So to me, starting with a large Facebook group is the same as starting with a large email list. You can, like, segment it out pretty good into different interest interest groups literally and meta like, figuratively.
总之,是啊。
Anyway Yeah.
我没有太多答案。你必须非常了解客户,比如他们最初为什么加入这个群体,他们感兴趣的是什么这类事情。一般来说,人们往往过于害怕收费,过于害怕开口。他们觉得这会冒犯别人,所有人都会跑掉之类的。但事实证明,如果你坦诚地说明你认为自己提供的价值,然后说,嘿。
I don't have too many answers. You gotta know the customers really well, like, why they're in the group in the first place, what they're interested in, that sort of thing. I would say, generally, people air on the side of being too afraid to charge, too afraid to ask. They think it's gonna offend people, and everyone's gonna run away and all this stuff. And turns out, if you're pretty honest about what you about the value you think you're providing, and you say, hey.
你们对这个感兴趣吗?这是个非常简单的开始方式。我觉得人们往往把事情想得太复杂了。我会这么做——我会拿出你最好的点子,然后说,嘿。
Would you guys be interested in this? That's very easy way to start. And I think people How many over overcomplicate it and just do I would do that. I would take your best idea. I would say, hey.
我们正在考虑做这个。你知道,这是大概的费用。你们有兴趣吗?这并不代表一定能成,但至少你会知道反面结果。如果连表示兴趣的人都没有,那就没必要继续了。
We're thinking about doing this. You know, this is what it would cost. Would you guys be interested? And that doesn't mean that necessarily it's gonna work, but you'll know the opposite. If no one even says they're interested, then then don't bother.
什么
What do
你们会员?
you members?
一千英里半径范围。
A thousand mile radius.
最好的方式可能是推出每月20美元的高级会员,在群里为他们提供特别服务。我们从趋势分析中发现的惊人现象是——更多人是因为社群而非内容本身购买的,这点我之前没意识到。
Best you could knock it out the park by having a premium one that's $20 a month, and you do special stuff for them in the group. What we learned about our trends thing, which I thought was amazing, is more people have been buying because of the group as opposed to the content. I didn't realize that.
Jason,你有什么收获?
Jason, what you got?
是的。我喜欢你们团队的一点就是你们不废话,我能直说吗?我们刚才还在讨论这个。我认为人们对创业者从零开始将公司发展成大型上市企业这件事存在巨大的误解。
Yeah. So what I like about I like what you guys you're no bullshit and that's Can I say one? Yeah. And we were just talking about this. I think that there's a huge misconception about this like idea of like this person who starts something and then grows it to a huge publicly traded company.
其实我认为对大多数人来说,找到职业经理人更好。虽然这种观点不受欢迎。比如Andreessen Horowitz风投就说他们希望创始人担任CEO。但我觉得多数创始人并不想当CEO,而且会搞砸。很多公司就是因为创始人虽有远见和创造力却不善运营而被彻底拖垮。
I actually think that it's better for most people to find professional managers. And that is, like, not popular. Like, is it Andreessen Horowitz, they say that they want the founders to be the CEO. I think that most founders would not wanna be CEO and would suck at it. And there's been a lot of companies that have been completely run-in the ground because someone who starts a company may be a visionary or creative and really bad at operating.
而我认为很多人没有意识到这一点。
And I think that a lot of people don't acknowledge that.
我以前常犯一个错误:听某人讲了一两个高见后,就觉得这人很聪明,然后不自觉全盘接受他所有观点。我虽没明说,但心里确实这么想,完全照单全收。
I used to make a mistake, which is I would listen to somebody, and they would say one smart thing, two smart things, three smart things. I'm like, that's a smart person. And then I would sort of auto accept all other statements that they make. And I never did this explicitly, but that's actually what was happening in my head. I was just taking it all in.
所以现在我——然后我就
And so now I and then I went
反其道而行,我
the other way, and I
我当时想,我谁的话都不想听。我要自己搞定一切。结果连六个月都没坚持到,因为我又想听听别人的想法。其实我好奇心很强。所以现在我的心态完全不同了——就是吸收一切。
was like, I don't wanna listen to nobody. I'm gonna figure it all out myself. And and I couldn't even last on that for six months because I was like, well, I wanna hear what people think. I'm actually very curious. And so now my mindset is very different, which is absorb everything.
我试着听取每个人的观点。但我会筑起一道防火墙:我真正相信什么?哪些观点能引起我的共鸣?哪些东西我想真正纳入自己的个人信条?所以我觉得很多所谓的传统智慧都经不起这个考验。
I try to take I try to hear everybody's point of view. But then I really, like, have, like, a a wall, like, a firewall, which is like, what do I actually believe? Which of these things resonate with me? Which of these things, like, do do I wanna actually incorporate into, you know, my own little personal bible? And so I I would say a lot of stuff that's sort of conventional wisdom doesn't pass that test.
你提到创业和经营企业是两码事。我的看法略有不同:我认为有些商业机会被严重低估了。收购现有企业应该比现在更普遍才对。因为媒体和投资者都在鼓吹从零开始,但收购企业并提升其价值其实能更快获得商业成功。
I think you said one which was, like, starting a business versus running and operating a business, two two sort of different things. And the way I would I would think about it a little bit differently is I think that there's some really underrated business opportunities. So I think that buying a biz buying an existing business should be way more common than it is. Because I think the media, investors, all glorify starting a new thing, but there's so much value in buying a business and and actually just increasing the value. It's a much faster path to business success.
如果你不在乎商业成功,只想改变世界,那另当别论。第二个被严重低估的途径(我之前告诉过你)是:打工是实现财务自由的错误方式。我不是第一个说这话的人,多数人也会同意,但现实是大部分人都在打工。
Now if you don't care about business success, you just wanna make some change happen in the world, that's different. The second one that I think is, like, like, sort of criminally underrated is I've told you this before. Working working at a job, I think, is is is is a flawed way to get to financial freedom. And I'm not, like, the first person to say this. I think most people will sort of agree with this, but the reality is that the majority majority of people work as employees.
作为打工人,你天生就处于劣势。你可能是个优秀员工
And if you work as employee, you sort of have the the deck stacked against you. You might be a great employee
我同意你的观点。
agree with you.
好,让我说说为什么这是个坑。就算你是顶尖员工,工作效率是同事的两三倍甚至五倍,但你的薪水永远不可能达到同级别同事的两三倍。公司制度决定了...
Okay. Let me let me let me tell you why I think it's bad. So if you're a great employee, you might be two, three, five times more productive or have higher output than the person next to you, but you'll never really get paid two, three, four, five x somebody who's in your peer group at your company. Companies sort of
你见过销售吗
Have you ever met sales
是啊是啊,销售人员就是不停地提高指标。就像这样,好吧。太棒了。
Yeah. Yeah. Salespeople but what what they do is they just raise the quota. It's like, okay. Fantastic.
你做到了。这是你获得同样奖金的新方法。就像,公司会破产如果他们
You did it. Here's your new way to get that same bonus. Like, companies go broke if they
如果你按绩效拿报酬,那你就能大获成功。
If you do performance if you are paid on performance, then you can knock it out the park.
也许吧。但根据我的经验,大多数工作并非如此,销售工作基本上就是不断抬高你的指标,让你无法保持原有的收入水平。
Maybe. I think most jobs are not from my experience, sales jobs, they also basically, they just keep raising your quota so that, know, you you can't continue to earn at the same rate you're
致富的途径只有几种:要么靠运气(包括嫁入豪门、继承遗产或中彩票)
going there's there's only a few ways to get rich. It's you get lucky, which includes marrying into it, inheritance, or lottery.
最佳途径。
The best way.
是的。最好的选择是创业或成为销售人员。而销售人员包括任何与业绩相关的工作,通常就是销售。在科技领域,也可能涉及增长方面。对吧。
Yeah. The best You start a business or you become a salesperson. And salesperson includes anything that is, like, performance related that's typically sales. In tech world, it could be, like, growth as well. Right.
你们读过《富爸爸穷爸爸》这本书吗?我很好奇。当我读那本书时,感觉就像要把它写进我的圣经里一样。那本书真的引起了我的共鸣,我当时就觉得这完全说得通。
Have you guys read the book Rich Dad Poor Dad? I'm just curious. So so so when I read that, that was one of those, like, I'm gonna write that in my bible. Like, that one resonated with me. I was like, this makes absolute sense.
如果你还没读过这本书
And if you haven't read the book
一个骗子?
a crook?
我不认为他是
I don't think he's
一个骗子。是的。我
a crook. Yeah. I
不知道我是否对很多人这样看。比如埃隆·马斯克,有些人认为他是英雄和超级天才,有些人则认为他是个骗子。
don't I don't know if I I do this with a lot of people. Like, Elon Musk a lot some people think he's, like, a hero and and super genius. Some people think he's a fraud.
他不是去了吗
Didn't he go
监狱?
to jail?
他...他不是...我的意思是,就像,我并不真的在乎一个人,因为在硅谷的经历让我明白,我遇到过心目中的英雄,但他们也只是普通人,有缺点。人们都很奇怪,有优点也有弱点。我不会根据一个人的整体来评判他们的哲学或智慧。所以这个人在《富爸爸穷爸爸》中的哲学理念与我产生了共鸣。这是我所接纳的一点,而我觉得硅谷大多数人并不谈论这个。
He he's he's not a my point is this, is, like, I don't really care about a person because from what I've encountered here in Silicon Valley, I've met my heroes, and they're just they're people have flaws. People are weird. People have strengths and weaknesses, and I don't judge their philosophies or or wisdom based off of their totality as a person. And so so this guy, his philosophy around in Rich Dad Poor Dad, it resonated with me. And so that's one that I've let in that I don't think most people here in Silicon Valley talk about.
他和迈克呢,好吧。
Do him and then Mike, Okay.
理想情况下是的。但现实是很多人反其道而行。对吧?所以
Ideally, yes. The reality is a lot of people do the opposite too. Right? So
是啊。有太多问题需要解决了。
Yeah. There's so many problems to solve.
我会...我会先遵循第一性原则。
I'll I'll first principles first.
同意我会和你一起思考,但我
Agree I'll think with you, but I'm
要补充第二个视角。你在工作所以我要——我不想叫你Anat。这个名字怎么发音?Anat。Anat。
gonna add a second perspective. You're you're working so this is I'm gonna I don't wanna call you Anat. How do you pronounce it? Anat. Anat.
好的。我有个朋友也是这么拼写的。我们都叫他Anat。他正在研发自动驾驶汽车,那可是要么做大要么回家的项目。
Okay. I have a friend who spells the same way. We call him Anat. He's working on a self driving car. That's that's like a go big or go home.
我觉得这太棒了。我认为你会——我来自密苏里州,那里很多人没你聪明,我朋友也不如你聪明。但有些人之所以富有,是因为他们创办的小企业年利润能达到50万到100万美元,这些钱直接进了他们口袋。不过我同意你的观点。
I think that that's awesome. I think that you'd be I'm from Missouri. So, I've got a lot of people aren't as smart as you, but my friends are not as smart as you. But, there's people who are rich because they start a small business that makes $500,000 to a million dollars a year in profit, and that just goes straight to their pocket. And I I would argue though that I agree with you.
我想如果你愿意接受我的钱,我愿意在你身上押注,我相信你会赢。但我觉得你能做到——
I think I I would if you would accept my money, I will bet money on you, and I think that you will win. But I think that you can make it Did
你刚认识这家伙吗?
you just meet this guy?
是啊。你呢
Yeah. Did you
花三分钟在
spend three minutes on
路上?
the road?
各位,这家伙会赢的。我觉得很多人会感到惊讶,因为我们有一个调查了600人的数据库。其中有些餐厅老板,年收入60万美元,总投资250万美元。当然,你想要什么样的生活只有你自己知道。对很多人来说这已经很不错了。
You guys this guy's gonna win. I would I think that a lot of people are surprised that so we have this database that we surveyed 600 people. And there's people who own restaurants that are making $600,000 a year on a 2 and a half million dollar thing. Now, who knows what type of life you want? That's pretty cool for a lot of people.
对大多数人来说这很棒。不过我同意你的观点,这可能正是为什么你可能会成为最优秀的那个。
That's great for most people. But I do agree with you, but that is probably why you're probably gonna be the best.
即便是这些人,他们解决了问题,所以能把那些零花钱收入囊中,因为
Even the folks on this, they solved the problem, so they're able to put that pocket change into their pocket because
他们确实解决了
they actually did solve the
问题。没错。不是他们出去说‘我想坚持一年’,而是他们真正为自己解决了问题。
problem. Right. Not that they went out there and say, I wanna make it for a year. They actually genuinely solve the problem for themselves.
是啊,是啊。我懂你。真的懂。
Yeah. Yeah. I feel you. Feel you.
不过,如果你像雪一样,让一群人像雪花般跳跃,你是不会致富的。除非你能想出办法,除了靠运气,否则你只有解决别人的问题、为他人创造价值才能致富。你只能从中获取一部分价值回报。你刚才说的那句话——如果你正在听,可能没听清他说什么——他说的是,不要为了赚钱而去创业,要去解决问题,钱自然会来。
You you won't get rich if you're snow, though, and have a fleet of people jump like snow. It has to go out of you can come up with Aside from the lucky tier, you won't get rich unless you're solving somebody's problem, unless you're giving value to other people. You're just gonna capture some percentage of that value back. Now the thing you said, which was and if you're if you're listening to this, you probably didn't hear what he said, which was, don't go try to start start a business to make money. Go out there start a business to solve problems, and money will come.
你知道吗,我把这称为金字塔顶端。如果你以此为准则生活,我觉得这很棒。我也认识很多人创业是因为他们享受创业的过程,他们会尝试解决不同的问题。他们并不一定事先知道要解决哪个问题,只是决定去做。
I call you know, that's the top of the pyramid. And if you're living by that, I think that is amazing. I also know many people who start businesses because they enjoy the act of starting a business, and they try to find different problems to solve. And and they don't necessarily know which problem ahead of time. They just decide.
这就是我。我是个商人,我会让它实现。虽然你说的很了不起,但我认为这会排除那些没有明确要解决什么问题的人。知道有多种不同的风格是可以的。
That's who I am. I'm a business person. I'm gonna make it happen. And I I think that while what you're saying is is amazing, I think what it does is it isolates people out who don't feel that true calling of which problem to solve. And it's okay to know that there's many different styles.
没错。我父亲经营一家卖洋葱的公司。他是个洋葱销售员,这就是我父亲的工作。他做得非常出色,因为我们当时很穷,他想送我上私立学校。
Yeah. So my father owned a company that sold onions. He was an onion salesman. That's what my dad did. And he knocked it out the park because we were poor, and he wanted to send me to private school.
我认为这是可能的。这就是我的观点。不过,我觉得你的思维方式会让你打出全垒打,而不是仅仅获得一般的成功。
I think that is possible. That's my point. Though, I think that your thinking is gonna make you a home run versus whatever is successful but not a home run.
我想给大家留一个小练习,我觉得自己尝试会很有收获。我现在就和你玩这个游戏。我写下来——我们快速玩个游戏。问/抱歉,迈克,一个
I wanna leave everyone with one little exercise that I think is an amazing one to do yourself. I'm gonna do it to you. It's a I wrote down we're gonna play the game real quick. Ask get Mike slash Sorry. Mike, one
最后一个问题。他举手了。
last question. His hand up.
你们真的穿情侣装了吗?等等。看看你的衬衫。他衬衫上写着'南方山姆的大热狗,粗如婴儿手臂'。
Did you guys actually have matching the Hold on. Show your shirt. What so his shirt says Southern Sam's wieners as big as a baby's arm.
我的第一家公司是名为'南方山姆热狗'的餐车,因为我想到户外工作。
My first company was a hot dog cart called Southern Sam's wieners I wanted to work outside.
注意力在哪里,如果你想吸引人们的注意,你就得去那里,并且要学会如何玩这个游戏。现在主战场是TikTok。太棒了。现在你得学会拍音乐视频来吸引眼球。
Wherever the attention is, that's if you're trying to get people's attention, that's where you gotta go, and you gotta figure out how to play that game. So now it's on TikTok. Fantastic. Now you gotta learn how to do music videos and get people's attention.
我觉得这简直太棒了。真的超酷。我认为现在的16岁年轻人太厉害了。他们的'废话检测器'会比任何一代人都灵敏。
I think it's freaking awesome. Yeah. It is so cool. I think that the 16 year olds of today are amazing. I think that their bullshit detector is gonna be higher than any other generation's bullshit detector.
我觉得唯一能绕过这点的方法就是别说废话。所以像沃尔玛这样的品牌想在那里打广告会很难,除非他们做些时髦酷炫的事——大品牌确实能做到,比如耐克之类的。但在Facebook(不是Instagram)上,以前骗人特别容易。在我创办正规公司前,和大多数网民一样,我也搞过骗局。在Facebook上做这个很容易。
And that I I think that the only way you're gonna be able to circumvent that is by not bullshitting. And so it's gonna be really hard, I think, for a Walmart to advertise there unless they do something hip and cool, which big brands are able to do that, like a Nike or something. But I think that with Facebook, not so much Instagram, but with Facebook, it was really easy to scam people. Before I started a legitimate company, I I like most Internet people, I did scams. Facebook was easy to do that.
我是说,大家都...对吧?每个在互联网上赚过钱的人。
I mean, everyone everyone right? Everyone who has made money on the Internet.
他们会让你失望的。没错。别装了
They're gonna leave you hanging. Yeah. Don't act
好像每个人都想过一些。我不是说真正的骗局,而是那种,你知道的,像鹰派胡扯那种。总之在谷歌上很容易操作。在Facebook上稍微难一点,但还是容易。在Instagram上就有点困难了。
like everyone has thought of some. I'm not talking like real scams, but, like, you know, you would a hawk bullshit. Anyway, it was easy to do on Google. It was a little less, but still easy to do on Facebook. Kinda hard on Instagram.
我觉得在TikTok上会非常、非常、非常困难。这是我的看法。
I think with TikTok, it's gonna be very, very, very, very hard. That's my opinion.
所以我觉得TikTok用起来超级有趣。但使用时我总觉得自己像个变态,因为上面有很多16岁的小姑娘。无论我想看什么,比如我喜欢篮球,但推送却是'这才是你喜欢的'。我就想,天啊。
So I think TikTok is is amazingly fun to use. I also feel like a perv when I'm it on because there's also, like, a lot of, like, just 16 year old girls. No matter what I'm trying to watch, like, I like basketball, but it's like, no. Here's what you like. I'm like, oh god.
这个算法。
This algorithm.
我...我不知道该怎么看待这件事。
I I don't know how I feel about this.
但另一方面,我也不知道这种情况能持续多久,因为我知道TikTok在用户获取上投入了大量资金。通常像TikTok这样的应用用户留存率都不高。所以我很好奇长期来看会怎样。这类应用通常...
But but the other thing is I also don't know how long this this lasts because I know TikTok is pouring so much money into buying users. And, usually, apps like TikTok don't have great retention. So I'm curious in the long haul. Apps apps that don't typically
我想是几年吧。不。
years, I think. No.
对。但用户浪潮和临界规模实际上才形成约十八个月。由于他们购买量太大,你根本无法判断有多少正在流失。
Right. But the the sort of the wave and the critical mass of users is really, like, eighteen months old. And because they're buying so much, you can't tell how much is leaking out.
它在中国流行吗?
Is it popular in China?
比如,他们已经花费了超过十亿美元。
Like, they've spent over a billion dollars.
在中国很火?我就知道!我就知道这是家中国公司,但不确定是否...没错老兄。我...我对这类通常持乐观态度,
It's popular in China? I knew it I knew it was a Chinese company, but I wasn't sure if it was a yeah, dude. I I'm bullish on Usually,
那些类似Facebook的产品,主打熟人社交的——WhatsApp、Instagram,所有这些内置熟人关系的社交产品,它们的用户黏性几乎是永恒的。而纯娱乐类产品,比如Vine之类的,它们要维持热度就比较困难,虽然也有可能成功。所以我想说,TikTok未必就是四五年后的必然赢家。完全有可能,但并非必然。嗯。
products that like, the Facebook type products that feature your friends, WhatsApp, Instagram, all these peep products that have people you know in them are, like, sticky forever. Products that are entertainment like a Vine or, you know, they they have a harder time doing it, and they can do they can do it. So I'm just saying it's not like a given that TikTok's just gonna be the thing, you know, four, five years from now. It's totally possible, but it's not a given. Mhmm.
最后我想说的是:要顺应平台原生特性。比如我知道很多音乐人试图利用TikTok——他们专门设计适合TikTok传播的歌曲。因为TikTok上很多舞蹈动作都是些小手势,所以他们就把歌词写成‘拿起电话’这类动作指令。
The last thing I'll say is just do what's native to the medium. So, like, I know a lot of people a lot of music artists are trying to use TikTok. They're designing designing songs to be TikTokable. And so they're like because on TikTok, a lot of the dancers are, like, little hand gestures. So they're designing lyrics that are like, pick up the phone.
说再见。点踩。回头见。而且,他们正在设计一首能轻松在TikTok上传播的歌。所以我觉得这就是你需要的那种思维方式。
Say goodbye. Thumbs down. See you later. And, like, they're designing a song that can be TikToked really easily. And so I think that's the type of thinking you have.
我一直受到启发,比如戴恩·库克之所以大火,是因为他当年利用了Limewire。人们搜索克里斯·洛克喜剧时,他会先放五分钟克里斯·洛克的段子,接着放四十五分钟自己的表演——就这样他靠钻系统空子获得了粉丝,因为他懂得如何抓住当时的注意力焦点。这就是我的思考方式。
I'm always inspired by, like, Dane Cook got really big because he gamed Limewire back in the day. He would people were searching for Chris Rock comedy. So he'd, like, put, like, five minutes of Chris Rock comedy and forty five minutes of Dane Cook comedy right afterwards, and that's how he got his followers because he knew how to, like, game that system because that's where the attention was at that time. And so, you know, that's how I would think about it.
好的。游戏。
Okay. Game.
好的。游戏规则很简单。这是个你可以独自玩或与他人互动的游戏,它能让你更了解人性。
Okay. The game the game's real simple. This is a game you can play with you can do to yourself. You can play with other people. It tells you a lot about people.
我面试过很多人,发现这个三句话测试能揭示一个人的思维方式。现在我要和你玩——你只需凭直觉填空,我会说一个句子并留白,你填第一个想到的词就行。明白吗?
So I interview and hire a lot of people, and I found that this three line test tells me a lot about the way somebody thinks. So I'm gonna play with you. So all you gotta do is just answer first thing that comes to mind when I I'm gonna say a sentence, and I'm gonna fill in I'm gonna leave a blank. That's where you say your thing. Okay?
人们是
People are
友善的。爱冒险的。我是动物。动物。
Friendly. Is Adventurous. I am An animal. Animal.
非常好。好的。我注意到人们有一种默认反应,但你不必受其束缚。这些都是你随身携带的核心信念。如果你认为人们愚蠢或复杂,我敢打赌你在世界各地与人相处时会遇到很多问题,如果这是你脑海中首要的想法的话。
Very good. Okay. So I've noticed that people have a a default reaction, and it's you don't have to be held to it. But these are, like, the core beliefs that you carry around in the world. So if you think people are stupid or if you think people are complicated, I bet you're gonna have a lot of problems with people as you go around the world, if that's kind of, like, what's what your top of mind thing is.
我以前的信念是生活很美好。就是一些普遍积极的想法。但我更新了它,因为我听到了一个更好的版本,我觉得,哦,我喜欢这个。我要采纳它,那就是'生活由你创造'。我觉得,哦,这是一种更有力量的思考方式。
Mine used to be life is great. Just something generally positive. But I updated it because I heard a better one, and I was like, oh, I like that. I'm gonna take that, which was just life is what you make of it. And I was like, oh, that's a more empowering way to think about things.
无论我的生活中发生什么,都取决于我如何应对这个情况。所以我鼓励你们问自己这三个问题:我认为人们是什么,生活是什么,我是什么。然后问问自己,我对这些答案满意吗?
Like, no matter what's going on in my life, it's gonna be about what I make of this situation. And so I encourage ask yourself these three questions. Say, what do I think? People are, life is, I am. And then ask yourself, am I happy with those answers?
而且,也可以试着用这些问题去了解别人。这会告诉你很多关于他们的事。所以我想把这个小框架留给你们。
And, also, try it on other people. It'll tell you a lot about them. So I wanted to leave you guys with that little framework.
酷。谢谢
Cool. Thank you
你的到来。好的。
for coming. Alright.
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