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我该如何用十万块赚到一百万？
How would I take 10 k and turn it into a million?
大约在2025年，你不能再投资标普500了。
Circa 2025, you cannot go into the S and P.
标普500现在过热了。
The S and P is overheated.
所以我会把伯克希尔·哈撒韦当作指数来看待。
So what I would do is I would treat Berkshire Hathaway as the index.
如果你在市盈率为23时买入标普500，那么接下来十年的年化回报率在负二到正二之间。
If you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, your annualized return over the next ten years was between two and minus two.
这就是你需要知道的全部。
That's all you have
要明白。
to know.
巴菲特至少做出了400个投资决策。
Buffett's made at least 400 investment decisions.
他说，其中12个决定才是关键。
He's saying 12 are the ones that mattered.
投资之神的命中率只有4%。
The god of investing has a 4% hit rate.
投资是一场无限游戏。
Investing is an infinite game.
你其实谈不上赢或输。
You don't really win or lose.
玩家只是决定退出。
The players just decide to drop out.
别这么蠢了。
Don't be such a freaking idiot.
世界上最有风险的事，就是相信没有风险。
The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.
当该买入的时候，你却不想买。
When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.
如果我问，是什么特质让一个伟大的投资者脱颖而出？
If I said, what's the number one trait that makes a great investor?
你首先想到的是什么？
What comes to mind?
那我们来玩个游戏吧。
So let let's play a game.
你当我的教练。
You're my coach.
你是我投资方面的教练，假设我有1万美元。
You're my investing coach, let's say, and I have $10,000.
我想把它变成一百万美元，对吧？
And I wanna turn it into a million, right?
这个播客叫《我的第一个百万》。
Podcast called My First Million.
我想从一万块变成一百万。
I wanna go from 10 ks to a million.
所以这是100倍的增长。
So that's 100X.
我该怎么把一万美元变成一百万美元？
How would I take 10 ks and turn it into a million?
投资的关键在于，机会不会因为你有钱就自动出现。
The thing about investing is that opportunities are not going to show up just because you have the cash.
所以我会先帮你调整一下思路。关于这十万，我会说，没错，一万美元是个不错的起点，但我也希望你另外找一份全职工作。
So I would make some tweaks to your thinking first about the So 10 I would say, okay, the 10 ks is a good starting point, but what I also want you to do separately from that is have a day job.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
我希望你花的钱少于你赚的钱。
And I want you to spend less than you're earning.
我希望你用这十万，再加上你每年的储蓄，也许每年能存五万或十万，视情况而定。
And I want you to take the 10 and I also want you to take your annual savings, maybe that's $510,000 a year or whatever it is.
通常我会说把它放进指数基金，对吧？
And normally I would say put it into an index, right?
像标普500这样的指数现在估值过高了。
The index, like the S and P is overheated.
我们现在不能这么做。
We can't go there right now.
到2025年，我们不能进入标普500。
Circa 2025, we cannot go into the S and P.
好的。
Okay.
好吧，也许到2035年可以，但2025年不行。
Okay, maybe 2035 we can, but not 2025.
所以我会把伯克希尔哈撒韦当作指数来看待。
So what I would do is I would treat Berkshire Hathaway as the index.
所以我会说，目前的默认做法是用美元成本平均法买入伯克希尔B类股票，对吧？
So I would just say the default currently is you put it dollar cost average into Berkshire Class B shares, right?
你就这样日复一日地坚持下去。
And you keep doing that day in, day out.
如果我们这么做，计算起来其实很简单。
And if we did that, the math is really simple.
即使我们每年只赚10%，对吧？
Even if we were doing 10% a year, right?
我的意思是，我觉得伯克希尔达到这个水平相当合理。
I mean, which I think is pretty reasonable for Berkshire.
根据72法则，我们每七年就能翻一番。
Rule of 72, we would double every seven years.
人生就是关于翻倍的事情。
Life is all about doubles.
假设有个20岁的人有1万美元，坚持五十年或四十九年，那就是七次翻倍。
Okay, let's say we had a 20 guy with 10,000 and you go for fifty years or forty nine years, it's seven doubles.
对。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
七次翻倍就是128倍。
Seven doubles is 128.
好的。
Okay.
这是你本金的128倍。
It's 128 times your money.
我给你的是超过100倍的回报。
I gave you more than a 100 X.
对。
Right.
在四十九年里，我给你带来了128倍的回报。
I gave you 128 X in forty nine years.
而且不需要成为天才。
Without having to be a genius.
什么都没做，所以这只是备选方案。
Without doing anything, So this is just plan B.
对。
Right.
我们投入的1万美元，变成了超过100万、130万，而且还没交任何税。
Where we put the 10,000 in, it becomes more than 1,000,000, 1,300,000 with no taxes paid.
对。
Right.
没有股息，没有税收，什么都没有。
There's no dividend, there's no taxes, there's nothing.
我们甚至还没用上方案A呢。
And we haven't even gone to plan a yet.
对吧？
Right?
这只是
This is just
坐在那里。
sitting there.
好的。
Alright.
我们休息一下吧，因为我有个小礼物送给你。
Let's take a quick break because I got a little freebie for you.
如果你正在收听这一集，并且喜欢莫尼什所说的内容，你可能会和我一样。
So if you're listening to this episode and you like what Mohnish is talking about, you might be like me.
你正在努力做笔记。
You're trying to take notes.
你试图记住他提到的这些原则，因为这家伙在投资方面真是知识渊博。
You're trying to remember these principles that he's talking about because the dude is just a wealth of knowledge when it comes to investing.
嗯，HubSpot 的同事们听了这一集。
Well, the fine folks at HubSpot listened to this episode.
他们整理了文字稿。
They took the transcript.
他们把他说的九个原则以及对应的例子都整理了出来，做成了一份PDF发给你，这样你就不用自己记笔记了。
They put down the nine principles that he talks about as well as the examples that he have, and they put it all in a PDF for you so you don't need to take notes.
他们已经为你全部做好了。
They did it all for you.
你可以阅读这份资料，从中学习。
You can read that, learn from it.
这才是从这些节目中获得更多价值的更好方式。
That's the much better way to get more value out of these episodes.
链接在下方的节目说明里。
It's in the show notes below.
去下载吧，好好享受。
Just go download that and enjoy.
我想问一下标普指数，虽然你对我们的了解不多，但简单介绍一下坐你对面的这位，萨姆，萨姆是一位企业家。
So I wanna ask about the S and P because you don't know much about us, but the short version of the guy you see across from you there, Sam, Sam's an entrepreneur.
萨姆创建了自己的公司。
Sam built his company.
他卖掉了公司，拿走了赚到的钱，然后说：我为这笔钱付出了很多努力。
He sold his company, he took the money that he made, and he said, Look, I worked hard for this money.
现在我想让这笔钱为我努力工作，但必须保证安全。
Now I want this money to work hard for me, but I need it to be safe.
于是萨姆选择了主流的、众所周知的最佳实践，投资于低成本的标普500指数基金。
And so Sam went into a a mostly, you know, best practice, low cost index funds in the S and P 500.
每当我问萨姆他的投资策略，或者告诉他：伙计，你得买比特币。
And anytime I ask Sam about his strategy or I tell him, dude, you gotta buy Bitcoin.
以太坊，你得买这个。
Ethereum, you gotta buy this.
你得把一些钱投到那边去。
You gotta put some money over here.
因为我觉得，如果萨姆是平淡无奇的，那我都不知道我算什么了。
Because I'm I'm like, you know, if Sam is vanilla, I don't even know what I am.
我就像旁边那种口味奇怪的水果糖，叫什么水果味混合的。
I'm some flavor off in the side that's How about tootie fruity.
是的
Yeah.
我这边是水果味的。
I'm tootie fruity over here.
我一直在试图拉他过来，但他却说不行。
And I keep trying to pull him over here, but he says, no.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
我喜欢香草味。
I like vanilla.
所以他基本上就说，标普500的长期平均回报率是10%。
And so he he basically just says, the long term average of the S and P 500 is 10%.
如果我持有了五十年，我的钱就会翻很多倍。
If I just hold this for fifty years, I'm gonna double, you know, this many times.
我很好。
I'm good.
但你知道，当任何事情看起来太安全、太确定，或者被理所当然地认为长期10%的回报率会一直如此时，我会有点警惕。
But, you know, I do get a little wary when anything seems too safe or too too certain or, I guess, too taken for granted that this 10% number over the long term will be what it'll be.
我想，你对萨姆的建议会是什么？
I guess, what would your message be to Sam?
萨姆只是……你知道的，他是对的吗？
Is Sam just, you know, is he right?
他错了吗？
Is he wrong?
你会给他一个警告或提醒吗？
Would you give him a caution of warning?
他是你侄子，看起来确实像你侄子。
He was your nephew, he looks like he might be your nephew.
如果他是你侄子，你会对他说什么？
If he was your nephew, what would you be telling him?
一方面，山姆，你是对的。
Well, on the one hand, Sam, you're right.
因为如果你的钱多到吃不完，那么你钱的首要目的应该是让你过得舒适。
Because if you, if you have more money than you need to eat, the first purpose of your money should be to make you comfortable.
这毫无意义。
It doesn't make any sense.
巴菲特说：不要为了得到你没有且不需要的东西，而冒险去赌你拥有并需要的东西。
Buffett says, don't risk what you have and need to get what you don't have and don't need.
对于手头宽裕的人来说，为了追求高风险投资而让日常生活变得不愉快，是毫无道理的。
It makes no sense for somebody with a surplus of money to make their daily life less pleasant by going to investments that put them under pressure.
但你的说法后面似乎还有个‘但是’。
But there's going to be a but on your statement, it sounds like.
但是。
But.
另一方面，世界上最有风险的事，就是相信没有任何风险。
On the other hand, the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.
市场的风险并不来自公司、证券或交易所等机构。
The risk in the markets does not come from the companies, the securities, or the institutions like the exchanges.
市场的风险来自于人的行为。
The risk in the markets comes from behavior of people.
正因如此，巴菲特才说，当别人不谨慎时，你应当谨慎。
And it's that for that reason that Buffett says, when others are imprudent, you should be prudent.
当别人无忧无虑时，你应当感到恐惧，因为他们的行为不当地推高了价格，使局势变得脆弱。
When other people are carefree, you should be terrified because their behavior unduly raises prices and makes them precarious.
当别人恐惧时，你应当积极进取，因为他们的行为将价格压低到所有东西都成了廉价货的地步。
When other people are terrified, you should be aggressive because their behavior suppresses prices to the point where everything's a giveaway.
所以，我的意思是，从长远来看，你对标普指数的看法是正确的，未来几年，美国公司整体上将创造繁荣。
So I don't, I mean, look in the long run, you're right about the S and P and over the coming years, American companies on balance are going to produce prosperity.
在这个语境下，‘长期’指的是多长时间？
What's that defined as long term in this?
我认为，20年或更长时间才算真正的长期。
Well, I would say 20 or more is the real long term.
我稍后会告诉你我是怎么得出这个结论的，但我最喜爱的一幅漫画，我收藏了多年来许多漫画。
And I'll tell you in a minute how I get there, but my favorite cartoon, I have a file of cartoons from over the years.
我最喜欢的一幅，画的是一个人，他的车停在路边。
My favorite one, there's a guy he's got his, is a car pulled over to the side of the road.
这个人正在一个电话亭里。
The guy's in a phone booth.
这是一幅老漫画，因为现在已没有电话亭了。
So, you know, it's an old, cartoon because there are no more phone booths.
背景中正在兴建一座工厂，而他正对着电话大喊大叫。
And there's a factory going up in the background and he's screaming into the telephone.
我才不在乎什么谨慎的分散投资，赶紧卖了我那家芬威克化学的股票。
I don't give a damn about prudent diversification, sell my Fenwick chemical.
换句话说，谨慎的分散投资要求你持有多种不同类型的资产，并保持一定的配置比例。
In other words, prudent diversification calls for certain investment positions and a variety of them in a certain composition.
但现实是，我看到芬威克化工厂着火烧光了，快让我撤出来。
Reality says, I see Fenway chemicals burning to the ground, get me out.
你不能忽视现实。
And you can't ignore reality.
那么，在这种情况下，现实对你来说是什么？
Now, what's reality in this case for you?
现实就是认清事物的现状。
Reality is recognizing where things stand.
摩根大通在2024年前后发布过一张图表。
And JPMorgan published a chart around the '24.
那是一张散点图，展示了多年来，如果你在买入标普500指数时记录其估值，并追踪其未来十年的年化回报率，会是什么情况。
And it was a scatter diagram showing over the years, if you bought the relationship between the S and P 500 at purchase and the return of the annualized return over the next ten years.
图表看起来是这样的。
And it looked like this.
横轴是回报率，纵轴是市盈率。
On this axis we had return and on this axis we had PE ratio.
这显示出负相关关系，意味着你支付的市盈率越高，预期的回报就越低。
And it was a negative correlation, which means the higher the PE ratio you pay, the lower the return you should expect.
这完全说得通。
Makes perfect sense.
图表上显示，在PE比率轴上有一个数值23，这正是当时标普500的PE比率。
And it showed there was a number here, 23 on the PE ratio axis, which is what the PE ratio on the S and P was at the time.
数据显示，历史上当PE比率为23时买入标普500，每一次都没有例外，未来十年的年化回报率都在2%到-2%之间。
And it showed that historically, if you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, in every case, there were no exceptions, in every case, your annualized return over the next ten years was between two and minus two.
你只需要知道这一点。
That's all you have to know.
我
I
你如何在表现不如预期的时期管理自己的心理状态？
wonder how do you manage your psychology in a period of time where your performance is not as good as you want?
你看起来是个情绪非常平衡、自我调节很好的人，但与此同时，这正是你所参与的游戏。
Because you seem like a really well balanced, well regulated emotion you know, emotionally regulated guy, but at the same time, this is the game you're playing.
在这样的时间段里，你是如何管理自己心理状态的？
And how do you manage your psychology during a window of time like that?
所以，是的，这真是一个极其出色的问题。
So, yeah, it's a it's absolutely spectacular question.
有趣的是，我之前已经预演过一遍。
It's funny because I did a sort of dry run through.
我过两天就要向我们的投资者介绍这只基金了。
I'm gonna be talking about the fund to our investors in in a day or two's time.
我想，在这种情况下，我已经连续七年或八年跑输标普指数了。
And I think it's like it's seven or eight years that I've underperformed the S and P index in this case.
所以每当我想起这个问题时，总会想到在我刚出版书后，被邀请去谷歌演讲时有人问我的那个问题。
And so I don't know why it always comes up for me when I think of this is the question that was asked to me just after I'd published my book, and I was invited to give a talk at Google.
那时，我们的超额收益看起来比现在要好。
And the outperformance was looking better at that point than it was it is right now.
一位非常聪明的工程师问了我一个问题：你怎么知道你迄今为止取得的超额收益不是靠运气呢？
And a very smart engineer asked the question, how do you know that the outperformance you've gotten to date is not luck?
我当时的回答，和现在必须给出的回答一样：我们不知道。
And my answer then as as it would have to be now is we don't know.
为什么我只是其中一个数据点，而在成千上万个数据点中？
Why I'm just one data point and amongst thousands of data points?
所以，你知道，你可能会说二十五年是很长的时间，但在这二十五年中八年表现不佳也是一段很长的时间。
And so, you know, you'd argue that twenty five years is a long period of time, but eight years of underperformance in that twenty five years is also a long time.
所以，你知道，这已经是大约一两年前的事了，我当时说，在表现不佳的情况下，我该怎么办？
And so, you know, this was already a year or two ago where I said, in the face of underperformance, what am I going to do?
我要不要说，这太糟了。
Am I gonna say, this sucks.
这不管用。
This isn't working.
我是不是得彻底改变我的策略，冒上可能失去一切珍视之物的风险？
I need to strain change my strategy and risk everything that's dear to me potentially?
还是我要说，听着，我明白自己在做什么。
Or am I gonna say, look, I understand what I'm doing.
市场不知为何没有像我希望的那样给予回报，但我清楚我所做的事情终将……
Somehow the market's not rewarding it the way I would like it to be rewarded, but I know that what I'm doing will,
在
in
即使在最糟糕的情况下，也能带来真正、真正美好的生活，即使我的表现不佳。
the even in the worst possible cases, lead to a really, really good life, even if I am underperforming.
以我的首批投资者为例，你知道，他们之前从未投资过股票。
And if I take for starters, you know, my first investors, friends and family had never invested in equities before.
因此，在这种情况下，即使他们的表现低于标普指数，也远远超过了他们原本在固定收益和所有现金工具中所能获得的回报。
So in that case, even if they're underperforming the S and P, they vastly outperformed what they would have gotten in fixed income and all the cash instruments that they have there.
他们已经赢了很多很多次。
They've won many, many, many times over.
而且我实际上拥有一种我称之为勇气的东西，我意识到关键在于复利，要做出我知道能推动复利的决策。
And and I actually got to have, I like to call it courage, where where I kind of realized that the key is to compound and to take make moves that I know will enable me to compound.
如果最终我能跑赢指数，那当然很好。
And if I can end up beating an index, then that would be great.
但我不能为了跑赢指数而危及复利。
But but I cannot jeopardize compounding for the sake of beating the index.
我必须专注于复利。
I have to focus on compounding.
而这导致了——如果你退一步看，我认为，这种玩无限游戏的理念，很多人以为自己在玩有限游戏，但实际上他们玩的是无限游戏。
And and that leads and and if if you step back, I mean, I think that, you know, this this idea of playing the infinite game, so many people think they're playing a finite game, but they're playing an infinite game.
解释一下有限游戏和无限游戏的区别。
Explain the difference, finite and infinite games.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
抱歉。
Sorry.
所以，有限游戏和无限游戏之间有明确的区别。
So so finite so so there's clear distinction between finite and infinite games.
有限游戏有明确的规则，有明确的时空范围来开展。
A finite game is one which has a clear set of rules, a clear space in which it's played out both in terms of time and physical locations.
一个例子是国际象棋。
An example would be chess.
有一套明确的规则。
There's a set of rules.
它在棋盘上进行，根据时间限制或美式足球比赛，会有胜者和败者。
It's played across the board, and there's a winner and a loser according to the time controls or a game of American football.
它在美式足球场地上进行。
It's played in American football pitch.
每方都有终结球员。
There are end players each side.
比赛开始。
The game starts.
比赛结束。
It ends.
会有胜者。
There's a winner.
根据规则，会宣布失败者。
There's a loser declared according to the rules.
但最重要的是，生活中的大多数事情都是无限游戏。
And but the thing is the most important things in life are infinite games.
什么是无限游戏？
What is an infinite game?
无限游戏没有明确的规则，没有明确的游戏空间，也没有明确的开始和结束时间。
An infinite game has no clearly defined rules, no clearly defined game space, no clearly defined time when it begins and ends.
我最喜欢的一个无限游戏例子是冷战。
And one of my favorite examples for an infinite game was the Cold War.
冷战在许多战线上展开，无论是东南亚，还是建造核导弹，或是超级大国在各种方面的竞争。
The Cold War was fought across many battlefronts, whether it was the Southeast Asia or the, you know, building nuclear missiles or rivalry between the superpowers in all sorts of ways.
它究竟何时开始，并没有明确的界定。
It didn't not really clear exactly when it started.
关键是，它在多个规则和多个地点同时进行。
And here's the thing, and it played itself multiple rules, multiple places.
在无限游戏中，你并不会真正赢或输。
The in in the infinite game, you don't really win or lose.
通常，其中一个或多个玩家只是决定退出。
Usually, one or more of the players just decides to drop out.
就俄罗斯而言，俄罗斯某种程度上自行崩溃并退出了这场游戏。
In the case of Russia, Russia kind of in a way imploded and dropped out of it.
最重要的观点是什么？
What's the most important point?
我们在生活中常犯的关键错误是，以为自己在玩有限游戏，而实际上我们玩的是无限游戏。
The key the key mistake that we make so often in life is we think we're playing a finite game when we're playing an infinite game.
人生是一场无限游戏。
Life is an infinite game.
投资是一场无限游戏。
Investing is an infinite game.
所以，我想告诉你们，在我刚开始时，有多少基金还存在，我不知道具体有多少。
So how many people I would tell you out of I don't know how many funds that were around at the time that I started.
今天还剩多少？
How many around today?
而且只剩下不到2%了。
And it's like less than 2%.
有些人离开了投资这个游戏，因为他们本身极其出色，赚了巨额财富，然后决定去做别的事情。
Now some of the people left that game of investing because they actually were utterly superb, made enormous amounts of money, and decided to go and do something else.
一个著名的例子是尼克·斯利普。
A famous example of that is Nick Sleep.
他在威廉·格林的书中被提到。
He's in William Green's book.
那些人就是那些离开了的人。
And and so that those people there are those people.
但我大约十年前做过一项研究，当时有一个利珀数据库，我可以查到那时所有的基金。
But I I did a study of this about ten years ago, and there was a Lipper database where I could look up all the funds around at the time.
他们通常不会透露退出的原因。
They don't really give their reasons for dropping out.
但在许多情况下，是因为他们发生了某种形式的崩溃。
It But in many cases, because they had an implosion of one kind or another.
所以你不想成为那个崩溃的人。
And so you don't want to be the guy who implodes.
‘抱团’理念是什么意思？
What's the circle the wagons philosophy?
‘抱团’理念实际上源于我去年阅读巴菲特致股东的2023年信件时的思考。
Well, the circle the wagons philosophy actually came out of when I was thinking about Buffett's letter last year to shareholders, the 2023 letter.
他指出，在伯克希尔58年的运营中，只有12个决定真正推动了伯克希尔的发展。
He pointed out that in fifty eight years of running Berkshire, there were only 12 decisions that he had made that had moved the needle for Berkshire.
伯克希尔取得了巨大的成功。
Now Berkshire had a tremendous run.
他们实现了复合增长，直到最近，58年来每年的复合增长率都超过20%。
They've compounded, I mean, till recently, they were compounding at 20 plus percent a year for fifty eight years.
如果你每年增长20%，那就是每三年半翻一番，明白吗？
You're 20% a year, you are doubling every three and a half years, okay?
这意味着三十五年后，是十倍的增长，而五十八年则是另外二十三年。
And that means after thirty five years, it's a 10 doubles and fifty eight is another twenty three years.
所以你还有，呃，六个两倍的增长。
So you've got another, what, one six, six doubles.
所以是十六个两倍，也就是二的十六次方。
So 16 doubles, two to the power of 16.
计算二的十六次方的方法是二的十次方乘以二的六次方。
Now the way to do two to the power of 16 is two to the power of 10 times two to the power of six.
二的十次方，约等于一千。
Two to the power of 10, round numbers 1,000.
这就是一千倍，对吧？
It's a 1000x, right?
二的六次方是六十四。
And two to the power of six is 64.
是你最初投入的六万四千倍。
It's 64,000 times what you started with.
明白吗？
Okay?
如果你一开始有100美元，现在就变成了640万美元。
If you started with a $100, it's 6,400,000.
明白吗？
Okay?
从100美元变成640万美元。
A $100 to 6,400,000.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以他提到，在过去五十八年里，巴菲特至少做出了三四百次投资决策。
So he's saying, I would calculate in the last fifty years, fifty eight years, Buffett's made three or 400, at least 400 different investment decisions.
他说，其中只有12个决策是关键的，对吧？
He's saying 12 are the ones that mattered, right?
投资之神的命中率只有4%。
The God of investing has a 4% hit rate.
这就是投资之神。
That's the God of investing.
这就是我们为什么要指数投资的原因。
That's why we should index.
对。
Right.
那我们这些凡人又该怎么做呢？
Well, what are the rest of us mere mortals supposed to do?
所以，我在想他的那12次投资决策，对吧？
So now the thing is that I was thinking about his 12 bets, right?
我在想，到底是哪12次呢？
And I thought about, okay, which were the 12?
他从未明确说过，但你可以猜出是哪几次。
And I think he never mentioned that, but you could guess which one.
可口可乐是其中之一，美国运通、吉列、盖普、城市银行、华盛顿邮报也是。
Seas would be one of them, Coke would be another one, Amex, Gillette, Gap Cities, Washington Post.
你可以列出这些名字，比如伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源、阿吉特·贾因、聘请阿吉特·贾因，这可能是他们最大的一次押注，但回报极其丰厚。
You can come up with the names, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, ajit Jain, hiring ajit Jain, probably the biggest bet for them, but paid off huge for them.
当我思考这十二次押注时，我意识到，关键并不在于买入的决定。
So what I realized when I thought about these 12 bets was, it wasn't the buy decision.
买入的决定固然重要。
The buy decision is important.
真正重要的是，他们从未卖出。
The important thing was they never sold.
Seas 这家公司他们在投资组合中保留了五十年。
Seas stayed in the stable for fifty years.
可口可乐在他们的投资组合中已经持有四十多年了。
Coke has been in the stable for forty plus years.
对吧？
Right?
所以，关键并不在于买入的决定。
So it wasn't the buy decision.
那是油漆干燥的决定。
It was the paint drying decision.
好吧，这才是关键。
Okay, that was the important thing.
所以当你发现自己有幸持有伟大企业的少量股份时，就去找点别的事做吧，比如打桥牌或者随便做什么。
So when you find yourself in the happy position of a small ownership in a great business, just find something else to do with your time, play bridge or whatever.
对，你考虑过打高尔夫吗？
Right, have you considered golf?
我考虑过，
I have,
高尔夫很棒。
golf is great.
我可以问问你的阅读习惯吗？
Can I ask you about your reading habits?
你是怎么选择要读的书的？
How do you pick what books you read?
我从未读过任何关于如何成为投资者的书。
I've never read any books about how to be an investor.
比如，把这个乘以那个，再加这个减那个。
Like, multiply this by that and add this and subtract that.
我发现最有趣的书，一直都是关于投资者行为的那些。
And the books I've found most interesting have always been the ones about investor behavior.
我提到过1999年的《魔鬼带走落后者》。
And I mentioned Devil Take the Hindmost, '99.
在我之前读过的一本非常重要的书是约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯写的《金融狂热简史》。
One of the greatest books I ever read was before that John Kenneth Galbraith book called The Short History of Financial Euphoria.
这本书对我而言至关重要。
That was really pivotal for me.
因为我读书慢，所以我喜欢它只有大约一百页的篇幅。
And since I'm a slow reader, I liked the fact that it was only about a 100 pages.
然后在1974年，我想是查理·埃利斯写了一篇文章，叫《赢得输家的游戏》，他说因为无法预测未来，主动投资是行不通的。
And then, back in '74, I think Charlie Ellis wrote an article, Winning the Loser's Game, where he said that because you can't predict the future, active investing doesn't work.
他相信有效市场假说。
He was a believer in the efficient market.
所以，与其像网球选手那样试图击中赢家，不如努力避免击中输家，保持球在场内。
So rather than try to hit winners like the tennis player, you should try to avoid hitting losers and keep the ball in play.
这一直定义了我的投资风格。
And that has always defined my investing style.
事实上，我在2023年写过一份备忘录，题为‘更少的赢家，更少的输家，还是更多的赢家’。
In fact, I wrote a memo in the '23 called fewer winners, fewer losers or more winners.
这就是投资风格的基本选择。
And that's the basic choice of investing style.
今天的节目由HubSpot赞助。
Today's episode is brought to you by HubSpot.
你知道吗？大多数企业只使用了20%的数据。
Did you know that most businesses only use 20% of their data?
这就像读一本书，却撕掉了五分之四的页面。
That's like reading a book but then tearing out four fifths of the pages.
关键是你会错过很多。
Point is you miss a lot.
除非你使用HubSpot——这个能让你获取业务增长所需数据的客户平台，那些被困在邮件、通话记录、转录文本中的洞察，这些非结构化数据至关重要，因为你知道得越多，成长得就越多。
And unless you're using HubSpot, the customer platform that gives you access to the data you need to grow your business, the insights that are trapped in emails, call logs, transcripts, all that unstructured data makes all the difference because when you know more, you grow more.
所以，如果你想读完整本书，而不是只读一部分，请访问hubspot.com。
And so if you wanna read the whole book instead of just reading part of it, visit hubspot.com.
你提到过一个很有趣的数学悖论，那就是一只基金，我不知道是不是你的基金，但任何一只基金，可能从未进入前10%，却也从未跌出前50%。
There's a great, I think, of math paradox that you've pointed out, which is that a fund, I don't if it was your fund, but any fund, it could be never in the top 10%, but sort of never in the bottom 50%.
而这种策略就是持续保持在平均水平之上，就能让你跻身前5%，对吧？
And there's this strategy of just consistently being above average will place you in the top 5%, right?
它会让你进入前百分之一。
It'll place you in the top percent.
你能稍微解释一下这个观点吗？
Can you unpack that idea a little bit?
我刚才说得有点乱。
I just sort of butchered it.
1990年，我写了一份名为《实现业绩的路径》的备忘录。
In 1990, I wrote a memo called The Route to Performance.
我在明尼阿波利斯与客户戴夫·范本斯科滕共进晚餐，他负责管理通用磨坊养老基金。
And I had a dinner in Minneapolis with my client, Dave Van Benskoten, who ran the general mills pension fund.
戴夫向我解释说，他管理该基金已有十四年，在这十四年间，通用磨坊的股票投资组合从未高于第27百分位，也从未低于第47百分位。
And Dave explained to me that he had run the fund for fourteen years and in fourteen years, the equities, general mills equity portfolio was never above the twenty seventh percentile or below the forty seventh percentile.
因此，连续十四年，它都稳定地处于第二四分位。
So, fourteen years in a row, solidly in the second quartile.
如果你问一个不懂投资的人：这个数字在第27到第47百分位之间波动，你认为整个期间它的平均位置在哪里？
Now, if you said to the normal person, not in the investment business, so this thing fluctuated between the twenty seventh and the forty seventh, where do you think it was for the whole period?
他们会说：让我想想，大概在第37百分位左右吧。
They would say, well, let me think probably around thirty seventh.
答案是第四。
The answer is fourth.
如果你能连续十四年表现良好，并避免在糟糕年份中自毁前程，你就能跃升至顶尖行列。
So if you can do well for fourteen years in a row and avoid the tendency to shoot yourself in the foot in a bad year, you can pop up to the top.
与此同时，另一家投资管理公司经历了一个糟糕的年份，因为他们是深度价值投资者，重仓银行股，而银行股遭受了严重打击。
At the same time, another investment management firm had a terrible year because they were deep value investors and they were heavy in the banks and the banks suffered terribly.
所以他们跌到了垫底位置。
So they were at the bottom.
于是公司总裁出面解释，当然，投资界的人都是极擅长合理化和表达的。
So the president comes out and of course things people in the investment business are great rationalizers and communicators.
他说，答案很简单。
And he says, the answer is simple.
如果你想成为前5%的基金经理，就必须愿意接受自己跌入底部的可能性。
If you wanna be in the top 5% of money managers, you have to be willing to be in the bottom.
这听起来很有道理，但我的客户根本不关心我是否曾进入前五%，他们绝对不希望看到我跌入后五名。
Well, that makes great sense, except that my clients don't care if I'm ever in the top five and they absolutely don't wanna see me in the bottom five.
所以我的反应是，第一个人的做法才更适合我。
So my reaction is the first guy's approach is the right one for me.
因此，在橡树资本，我们追求的是更少的失败者，而不是更多的赢家。
So that's why at Oaktree, we go for fewer losers, not more winners.
是的，我喜欢这个观点，因为它是一个不太吸引人的想法。
Yeah, I love that because it's one of the unsexy ideas.
我觉得，任何你无法拍成电影、也无法让你听起来很酷的想法，通常都是被低估的，只要它们在逻辑和数学上真的像这个一样成立。
Like I think any idea you can't make a movie about or won't make you sound really cool are generally undervalued ideas when they actually logically math out the way that one does.
所以，让我印象深刻的是，我认为没人会给你制作一段励志视频，讲述如何持续保持平均水平，从不自毁前程。
And so I I sort of that was one that stuck out to me is I think nobody's gonna nobody's gonna give you a motivational video about being consistently above average and just never shooting yourself in the foot.
对。
Right.
人们谈论的都是英雄般的伟大和巨大的风险，你可能要承担这些，而且
It's all about heroic greatness and huge risks you can take and, you
你知道，愿意去这么做。
know, being willing to do it.
所以，你听到的全是这些。
And so, that's all you hear.
但伦敦《金融时报》每周六都会刊登一篇名为《与富特共进午餐》的文章。
But the Financial Times of London, every Saturday, they have an article called Lunch with the Feet.
他们会邀请某人共进午餐，并撰写一篇关于这个人、餐厅和食物的文章。
And they take somebody to lunch and they write an article about the person, the restaurant and the food.
他们在2022年底也这样采访了我。
And they did that with me in late twenty two.
我带那位记者去了我在纽约办公室附近最喜欢的意大利餐厅，只要我吃午餐，就100%去那里。
And I took the reporter to my favorite Italian restaurant near the office in New York, where I go 100% of the time if I have a lunch.
我对她说，在这家餐厅吃饭就像在橡树资本投资一样。
And I said to her, Eating in this restaurant is like investing at Oak Tree.
总是不错，有时很棒，但从不糟糕。
Always good, sometimes great, never terrible.
对我个人而言，这听起来像是一个谦虚的自夸。
Now, me, that sounds like a modest boast.
但如果你能连续四十年或五十年都做到这样，我认为只要不自毁前程，最终会积累出惊人的成果。
But if you can do that for forty or fifty years, I think it'll compound to great results if you never shoot yourself in the foot.
我觉得——我不知道美国证交会有没有在听，但我觉得这准确描述了我们所取得的成就。
And I think it's I don't know if the SEC is listening, but I think it's descriptive of what we've accomplished.
生活中最重要的是，某件事需要多长时间才能翻倍？
The most important thing in life is how long does something take to double?
好吧，因为这基本上会引出其他所有事情。
Okay, because that basically leads to everything else.
所以，举个例子，如果你看看像沃伦·巴菲特这样的人，对吧？
So for example, if you look at someone like Warren Buffett, right?
他从大约十岁或十一岁就开始了复利之旅。
He started his compounding journey when he was like 10 or 11 years old.
我认为他会说，那是他七岁的时候。
I think he would say it's when he was seven years old.
他今年将年满94岁。
He's gonna be 94 this year.
好吧，到目前为止他已经有了87年的复利时间，对吧？
Okay, that's a eighty seven year runway so far, right?
关键是，如果你有很长的复利周期，即使复利速率很低，最终也能积累出巨大的数字。
Now, the thing is that if you have a really long runway, then a low rate of compounding would still get you a big number.
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或者如果你的周期较短但复合利率更高，也能得到相同的结果。
Or if you have a shorter runway and a higher rate would again get you the same result.
所以这在人生中非常重要。
So it's very important in life.
因此，我希望他们在高中时就能开始培养这种意识，尽早启动这个引擎。
And that's why I think that I wish they do this in high school is to start that engine early.
比如，我们来考虑一个刚大学毕业的人，对吧？
So for example, let's take a situation of someone who's just finished college, right?
22岁的时候，他们找到了一份工作，可能年薪高达708万美元左右。
At 22 years old, they got some job, maybe like making $7,080,000 a year or something.
他们把1万美元存入了401(k)账户，对吧？
And they put away 10,000 in their four zero one ks, right?
他们22岁，投资于指数基金，对吧？
They're 22 years old in an index, right?
该指数每年的回报率为10%。
The index has done 10% a year.
这意味着每年10%的收益意味着那1万美元每七年就会翻一番。
Now what that means is the 10% a year means that that 10,000 will double every seven years.
好的。
Alright.
今天的赞助商是一家我使用过的公司，我正是靠着它创建了一家公司，并以数百万美元的价格卖掉了，而且我一分钱前期投入都没花。
Today's sponsor is a company that I use that I actually built a company on that I sold for millions of dollars and it took me zero upfront capital.
我们只有一个员工，这就是我喜欢的商业模式。
We had one employee, and those are the types of businesses I love.
我喜欢轻资产的生意，不需要大量资金，也不需要很多员工，可以快速启动。
I love lightweight businesses, things that don't require a lot of capital, don't require a lot of employees, and you can just get them off the ground quickly.
Beehiiv 提供一个平台，让你可以就任何主题创办一份通讯。
And so Beehiiv has a platform that lets you launch a newsletter about anything.
关于通讯的好处是，它一个人就够了。
And the great thing about newsletters is it could just take one person.
你只需要写一些你已经了解并享受的内容，它就能不断成长、成长、再成长。
You're just writing stuff that you already know and already enjoy, and it can grow and grow and grow.
对于我们来说，通过我们的加密货币通讯，我们打造了一个名为《The Milk Road》的品牌。
For us, with our crypto newsletter, we built a brand called The Milk Road.
在一年内，我们从零开始，成为了全球最大的加密货币通讯，并在一年内以数百万美元的价格出售了公司。
And in one year, we went from zero to being the biggest crypto newsletter on Earth, and we sold the company for millions of dollars in a year.
我们之所以能做到这一点，唯一的原因是Beehiiv已经内置了我们所需的所有功能。
And the only reason we could do that is because Beehiiv had all the things we needed out of the box.
我们需要能够撰写通讯、发送通讯，还需要增长功能、推荐计划、盈利功能，所有这些都内置好了。
We needed to be able to write the newsletter, send it, had growth features, referral programs, monetization, everything was built in.
因此，如果你正在寻找一种轻量级的业务，一种可以快速启动的业务，我强烈推荐Beehiiv作为起点。
And so highly recommend, if you're looking for a lightweight business, something that you can get going very quickly, highly recommend Beehiiv as a place to start.
前往 beehive.com/mfm，你可以使用代码 m f m 30，享受前三个月30%的折扣。
Go to beehive.com/mfm, and you could actually use the code m f m 30 and get 30% off your first three months.
让我们设想一种情况，这个人现在64岁，对吧？
So let's take a situation where the person is now 64 years old, right?
他们从22岁开始，到现在64岁，一共是四十二年。
Now they started at 22, it's 64, so it's forty two years.
四十二年就是六次翻倍。
Forty two years is six doubles.
对吧？
Right?
我这么做是为了让事情更简单。
I do this to make it easy.
没错。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
所以六次翻倍，对吧？
So six doubles, right?
那就是2的六次方。
That's two to the power of six.
2的六次方是64。
Two to the power of six is 64.
所以，那个人在22岁时存下的1万美元，在64岁时变成了64万美元。
So that 10,000 that the person saved at '22 is 640,000 at '64.
但这还不是他们所有的钱。
But that's not all they have.
在23岁时，他们存了1.1万美元。
At '23, they save 11,000.
这笔钱又积累成了一个巨大的数字，而且你继续这样下去。
That's again sitting at some big number and you keep going.
有时候我们会看到一些新闻报道，说某个大学的清洁工捐了400万美元给学校，自己却住在一间卧室的公寓里，等等，
And sometimes we see these news articles, there's some guy who's a janitor of some college and he gives 4,000,000 to the college and lived in a one bedroom apartment, whatever,
对吧？
right?
我们为什么要感到惊讶呢？
Why are we surprised?
好吧，如果你真正算一下，他实际上存的钱也没那么多。
Okay, if you actually run the math, he actually didn't even save that much.
而且他根本没有一个特别强大的复利引擎。
And he didn't even have such a great compounding engine.
他并不是二十年前就发现了苹果公司之类的东西。
It's not like he found Apple twenty years ago or something.
事情并不是这样的。
That's not what happened.
真正发生的是，他保持了持续性。
What happened was that there was a consistency.
所以当我爸劝我创业时，我当时的回应是：你看，我有401(k)账户。
And so actually my pushback to my dad when he was telling me to start a business is I was telling him at that time, I said, Look, I got a four zero one ks.
我在2001年4月已经有三万美元存进401(k)了，对吧？
I got 30,000 in the 04/2001 ks, right?
我每年还在继续投入15%。
I'm continuing with 15% a year.
当时我的雇主会匹配我前2%的缴款。
My employer at that time was matching the first 2%.
所以这基本上变成了17%的免税收入，属于税递延性质。
So it was becoming 17% tax free basically, it's tax deferred.
而且我的收入随着时间推移在增加。
And my income's going up over time.
我刚工作时，年薪是31,000美元，对吧？
So I was When I first started working, my salary was 31,000, right?
所以我每年存4,500美元，对吧？
So I'm saving 4,500 a year, right?
但如果我继续工作，我的薪水可能会达到数十万甚至更多，而我也在存下大量资金。
But if I was still working, my pay would have been hundreds of thousands or more, and I'm putting away a lot of money.
所以等到我退休时，那就彻底稳了。
So by the time I get to retirement, it's like it's game over.
有大量额外现金可用，完全不是问题。
Lots of extra cash available, no problem.
我根本没感觉到钱少了，因为那是税前自动扣除的。
And I never missed the money because it was pretax taken out.
所以这真是太好了。
So it's just great.
所以我认为我希望年轻人能明白，是的，你可以去买彩票，可以追求创业梦想，可以做所有这些，这都没问题。
So I think I wish that young people understand that, yeah, listen, you can pursue lottery tickets, you can pursue entrepreneurial dreams, you can do all of that, that's fine.
但与此同时，别忘了这个目标。
But on the side, keep this goal.
在过去一年里，我偶然看到一句来自一位退休交易员的精彩格言：当该买入的时候，你反而不想买。
I came across a great quote within the last year from a guy who's a retired trader, When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.
这句话蕴含了如此多的智慧，因为是什么造就了最佳的买入时机呢？
That encapsulates so much wisdom because what is it that causes the great moments to buy?
这可能是共识最低的时候。
It's probably the point of lowest consensus.
但当大多数人不相信价格会跌到最低时，不正是价格最低的时候吗？
But when most people don't believe would be the time that the price is gonna be the lowest, right?
这往往是不确定性最高、悲观情绪最盛、恐惧最强烈或最保守的时候。
It's the time with either the most uncertainty or the most pessimism or the most fear, most conservatism.
所以你也想成为所有那些人。
So you also wanna be all those things.
是什么导致了这些情况？
What causes those things?
你关注的是外在表现。
You're about the manifestation.
根本原因是什么？
What's the cause?
坏消息？
Bad news?
我不知道。
I don't know.
新闻？
News?
负面事件？
Bad events?
坏消息，无论是来自外部还是经济内部，企业前景疲软、股价下跌、普遍亏损，以及大量文章渲染未来多么糟糕。
Bad news, either exogenous or in the economy, faltering corporate fortunes, declining stock prices, widespread losses, and a proliferation of articles about how terrible the future looks.
所以关键在于，为什么你不该在低位买入？在那种情况下，谁会愿意买呢？
So the point that's why you don't wanna buy at the low, who would wanna buy under those circumstances.
你在介绍中提到过，当别人逆向而行时，你要反其道而行之。
And so you talk before in your introduction about zigging when others zag.
我唯一确定的是，如果别人前进时你也前进，你就不可能超越他们。
The only thing I'm sure of is if you zig when they zig, you're not gonna outperform.
你还会感到那种恐惧吗？当你知道该买入的时候，你还会害怕，还是觉得挺好的？
Do you still feel that fear, you know, of you like when you know you're supposed to buy, do you still feel fearful or do you feel like Nice.
你好啊，我的老朋友。
Hello, my old friend.
我喜欢这种情绪。
I love this emotion.
这正是我该做的事。
This is what I'm supposed to do.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
对。
Right.
我的意思是，这并不容易，但你必须明白你必须这么做。
I mean, it's not easy, but you have to know you have to do it.
如果你仔细想想，公司的前景和未来展望并不会发生太大变化。
If you think about it, the fortunes of companies and the outlook for companies doesn't change much.
我正在写一篇关于这个的备忘录，过几天就会发布。
And I'm writing a memo about this that'll come out one of these days.
发生变化的是人们对当前局势和未来的看法。
And what changes is how people think about what's going on and think about the future.
所以变化的是价格与我所谓的价值之间的关系。
So what changes is the relationship of price to what I'll call value.
有时人们会厌恶它们。
Sometimes they hate them.
有时候他们很喜欢它们。
Sometimes they love them.
当他们过于喜欢时，你应该预期它们可能会下跌。
When they love them too much, you should expect them to probably go down.
这听起来像是牛市或泡沫。
That sounds like a bull market or a bubble.
当他们过于讨厌时，你应该预期它们会上涨。
And when they hate them too much, you should expect them to go up.
这听起来像是熊市或崩盘。
That sounds like a bear market or a crash.
因此，你必须反其道而行之。
And so you have to do the opposite.
影响每个人的环境变化同样也会对你产生影响。
And the same developments in the environment that affect everybody else will affect you.
你也会受到这些变化的影响。
You're subject to them.
你能感受到它们，你读到关于它们的报道，听到关于它们的消息，每个人都在告诉你前景有多糟糕。
You feel them, you read about them, you hear about them, everybody tells you how dire the outlook is.
很难忽视它们，但你必须在面对它们时做正确的事。
And it's hard to ignore them, you have to do the right thing in the face of them.
1998年，我们经历了俄罗斯卢布贬值、东南亚债务危机以及长期资本管理公司的崩盘。
1998, we had the Russian ruble devaluation, the debt crisis in Southeast Asia and the meltdown of long term capital management.
我们一位年轻的组合经理来找我，说：我觉得这次完了。
And one of our portfolio managers who was young came to me and he said, I think this is it.
我觉得我们要崩盘了。
I think we're gonna melt down.
我觉得一切都结束了。
I think it's all over.
我极度悲观。
I'm terribly pessimistic.
我说：告诉我为什么。
I said, tell me why.
他详细阐述了他的理由。
He went through his reasoning.
我说，好吧，现在回到你的座位上，继续工作。
I said, okay, now go back to your desk and do your job.
一位战场英雄。
A battlefield hero.
我不愿将我们所做的事情与战场英雄相提并论，但战场英雄并不是一个毫无畏惧的人。
And I don't wanna compare what we do to being a battlefield hero, but a battlefield hero is not somebody who's unafraid.
而是一个即使害怕也依然
It's somebody who does
去做
it
的人。
anyway.
你就必须这样去做。
And that's that's the way you have to be.
你能说一下吗，我觉得这跟莫尼什有关。
Can you give the I think there's a Mohnish thing.
我不确定。
I don't know.
或者他可能是从别人那里听来的。
Or maybe he'd got it from somebody else.
街对面的两个加油站。
The the two gas stations across the street.
我觉得这是一个很好的隐喻。
I thought this was a great metaphor.
所以，是的，它来自《从优秀到卓越》。
So, yeah, it comes from good to great.
所以，是的，这是一个很棒的想法，我已经很久没有想过它了。
So, yeah, it's a beautiful idea that I haven't thought about for for an enormously long time.
这个想法是，我认为这个故事出现在他的书《从优秀到卓越》中，两家加油站分别位于道路的两侧。
The idea is, and this is a story I think is in his is in his book, Good to Great, two gas stations opposite both opposite sides of the road.
在其中一个加油站，当老板接待顾客时，他就赚了钱。
And the guy in the one gas station, you know, when he gets a customer, he's made some money.
他把加油站的墙粉刷了一遍。
He paints the wall of the gas station.
他摆了一些花。
He puts out some flowers.
他还把汽油价格稍微调低了一点。
He, makes his gas slightly cheaper.
这些举动，马路对面的那个人其实也完全能做到。
And these are all actions that the guy on the other side of the road opposite him could do.
他不仅能做，而且他亲眼看着对面那个人就在他眼前这么做。
Not only could he do, he's seeing the other guy do it right in front of him, right in front of him.
事实上，在生活中很多情况下，马路对面那个人明明拥有和成功加油站完全相同的机会，却就是不去做。
And the fact of the matter is that in so many cases in life, the guy on the other side of the road who has all the opportunity to do exactly the same thing as the winning gas station just doesn't do it.
多年以后，当你面对这种情况时，就很难理解为什么一个人如此成功，而另一个人却不是。
And you you come to this situation n years down the road, and it's very hard to understand why one is so successful and the other isn't.
所以，你知道吗，我在书里讲这个故事的方式是，我和莫尼什坐在一起，他已经讲过好几次这个故事了，我就想，是啊，是啊，对面那个家伙真是个傻瓜。
And so, you know, the way I think I tell the story in my book is, you know, I'm sort of sitting with Mohnish, and he's told this story a few times now, and I'm like, yeah, yeah, what a dumb guy on the other side of the road.
他根本没有模仿那个成功生意人做的任何事情。
He isn't copying any of the things that the that the one with the successful business is doing.
当我意识到自己其实就是对面那个家伙的时候，我不确定具体发生了什么，因为你看，莫尼什·帕布雷正在做这些事情，而你却一样都没做。
And and I don't know exactly what happens when I realize, actually, you're the guy on the other side of the road because here's mister Mohnish Pabrai doing all these things, and you're not doing any of those things.
为什么就不做呢？
Why the hell not?
别这么蠢了。
Don't be such a freaking idiot.
对。
Right.
如果你看到这里了，那你一定会喜欢我接下来要告诉你的内容。
If made it this far, then you're gonna love what I'm about to tell you.
有一位了不起的创业者。
So there's this amazing entrepreneur.
他叫尼尔·帕特尔。
His name is Neil Patel.
他曾经做过MFM的嘉宾。
He's been on MFM.
他是我们最喜爱的嘉宾之一，而且他有自己的播客。
He's one of our favorite guests, and he has a podcast.
这个播客叫《营销学校》，由HubSpot播客网络出品。
It's called Marketing School, and it's brought to you by the HubSpot Podcast Network.
《营销学校》每天为你提供来自多年实战经验的可操作数字营销技巧。
Marketing School brings you daily actionable digital marketing lessons learned from years and years of being in the trenches.
它已经获得了超过一亿次下载，发布了超过2500期内容。
They have over a 100,000,000 downloads and over 2,500 episodes.
无论你是刚建了网站，还是已经拥有庞大的成熟企业，《营销学校》都能为你提供即刻可用的碎片化营销智慧。
Marketing school gives you bite sized marketing wisdom that you can implement immediately whether you have a new website or you already have this huge established business.
你将学到当前最有效的SEO、内容营销、社交媒体、电子邮件营销、转化率优化以及各类线上营销策略。
You're gonna learn about the latest SEO, content marketing, social media, email marketing, conversion optimization, and general online marketing strategies that work today.
你可以在任何获取播客的地方收听《Marketing School》。
You can get Marketing School wherever you get your podcasts.
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