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如果你等到什么都不怕了再行动，机会可能早就溜走了。
If you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed.
很高兴又见到你。
It's good to see you again.
上次我们玩得特别开心，当时还说，你看。
We had a lot of fun last time, and we were like, look.
我不确定别人会不会喜欢，但我们真的很爱那个。
I don't know if other people are gonna like that, but we loved that.
结果上一期有超过一百万人听了。
And then over a million people listened to the last one.
今天早上我读了你写的一篇博客，讲的是你对人工智能的看法是怎么改变的。
And so this morning, I was reading, you wrote this blog post about how you changed your mind about AI.
几个月前你写过一篇，说人工智能可能有泡沫。
You had written, I don't know, a couple months back about the possibility of an AI bubble.
像你这样善于思考的人，一旦有了新信息，就会重新评估，然后写了一篇新的文章谈人工智能。
And then as a good thinker tends to do, you got new facts, you sort of reassessed the situation, you wrote a new post about AI.
你能简单说说，你是怎么改变对AI的看法的吗？
Do you wanna summarize the story of how you you changed your mind on AI?
这个故事其实很简单。
Well, the story is very simple.
我有个儿子，叫安德鲁。
I have this son named Andrew.
他是个风险投资人。
He's a VC.
他每天都在跟AI打交道。
He's dealing with AI every day.
他投资的公司都在用AI。
His companies use AI.
有些公司甚至在研发AI，等等。
Some of them create AI, etcetera.
我写第一篇备忘录，大概是去年12月9号左右。
I had written the first memo around December 9, as I recall.
到了二月初，他跟我说：爸，这段时间发生太多事了。
And then in early February, he said, dad, so much has happened.
你得把备忘录更新一下。
You have to update the memo.
于是我就把整份备忘录重写了一遍。
And so, I rewrote the memo entirely.
我最近重读了你的一本旧书，里面你反复提到一句话：保持理性很重要，别因为喜欢就以为某件事一定好，聪明人往往就是被情绪牵着走，才做出错误决定。
I was rereading one of your old books, and you repeat this phrase a bunch, which is like, it's important to be rational and you can't get seduced into thinking something is a good idea because that's when smart people can make bad decisions, when you get emotional about something.
但当我读到第二部分时，我一边读一边想：霍华德，你这语气有点被说服了。
But then when I was reading part two, I was reading it and I was like, Howard, you sound a little seduced.
你这语气有点被说服了。
You sound a little seduced.
你听起来好像真的很投入。
You sound like you're into this.
你觉得你自己有没有在用感情而不是理性来看待这件事？
Are you at all approaching this in an emotional way, you think?
这要看你怎么定义‘情绪化’了。
It depends on your definition of emotional.
我重新评估了人工智能及其潜力，因为它能谈论自己的优缺点，会用幽默，能把信息和我的情况联系起来，还能利用它对我本身的了解。
I upgraded my opinion of AI and its potential because its ability to talk about its own strengths and weaknesses, to use humor, to put information in the context of me, to use what it knows about me.
这真的非常了不起。
And, you know, this is really exceptional stuff.
人工智能身上有一种，或者不止一种特质，在我看来是前所未有的。
There's a quality to AI, or more than one quality, which are unprecedented in my opinion.
首先是显而易见的一点：自主性。
The first, the obvious one, is autonomy.
从铁路、计算机到互联网，所有其他技术革新都只是工具，用来加快速度、提升效率。
All the other technological innovations from the railroad to computers to the Internet, etcetera, were all tools or things to speed up and increase productivity.
以前从没出现过具备自主性这种特质的东西。
There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy.
你只给它一个任务，不告诉它具体怎么做，它自己就能想办法完成，这真是独一无二的。
The idea that you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it, and it'll figure it out is really unique.
而随之而来的，当然就是一种挥之不去的担忧——它可能会失控。
And what comes with that, of course, is this nagging concern that it may take over.
所以这一点非常重要。
So, that's really important.
另一点，虽然没法量化，但在我看来，以前从未有任何东西像它这么难以预料。
The other thing, and this is not of quantifiable, is there's never been anything, in my opinion, so unpredictable.
我觉得没人能说得清未来会是什么样子。
I don't think anybody knows the shape of the future.
我以前从没产生过这种感觉。
So I have never had that sense before.
我曾经觉得互联网已经够让人捉摸不透、无法预测了。
I thought that that the Internet, for example, was beyond comprehension or beyond prediction.
你觉得AI能做你这份工作吗？
Do you think that AI will be able to do what you do?
我知道你在备忘录里已经提到过这个了。
And I know you talked about this in the the memo.
说实话，我读的时候，还真有点儿感觉，就像听说沃伦·巴菲特一页一页地翻《穆迪手册》，研究八百家公司，拼命消化这些信息。
And I gotta be honest, when I read it, I, you know, I almost felt like, you know, you read stories about Warren Buffett reading the Moody's Manual page by page, 800 companies, and trying to digest that information.
但AI一眨眼就能搞定这些。
Well, AI can do that in a heartbeat.
对吧？
Right?
很多做投资决策需要处理的信息，AI都能又快又准地完成。
Like, you know, a lot of the things that go into making investment decisions, they can do very well, very fast.
是人加上AI更好，还是光靠AI就够了？
Maybe a human with AI or just AI?
关于这个话题，我每次开口都会先说一句：我不是专家。但我在备忘录里讲过，指数化投资让很多人退出了股票市场，因为真相暴露了——他们根本做不到自己吹嘘的那些事。
Everything I say on this subject I preface with, I'm no expert, but I think I told the story in the memo about the fact that indexation put a lot of people out of the equity business because, you know, it it disclosed that they couldn't do, what they claim to do.
大多数主动管理的股票投资者，业绩都跑输大盘。
And most active equity investors underperformed the averages.
AI也会让另一批人现原形，那些人自以为有本事，其实远没自己说的那么厉害。我以前常拿电脑说事儿，现在轮到AI了。
And AI will unfrock or defrock another group of people whose talents are not as great as as they purport, I used to say, about computers.
你想想，我上学那会儿学计算机，那时候它们只会读取、记忆、加减和比较。
You know, when I went to school and learned about computers, all they could do was read, remember, add, subtract, and compare.
它们能处理海量数据。
They could do it with a lot of data.
而且速度特别快。
They could do it really fast.
还不会算错数。
They could do it without making arithmetic mistakes.
也不会受情绪影响出错。
They could do it without making emotional mistakes.
虽然功能有限，但已经比大多数人强了。
So while the list was limited, it was still better than most people.
那现在AI的能力清单是什么？
Now what's the list for AI?
AI的能力是无限的，还是也有边界？
Is the list for AI unlimited or limited?
这个问题的关键就在这儿。
That's a big part of the question right there.
我也不知道答案。
And I don't know the answer.
也许你知道。
Maybe you do.
那还有没有什么是人工智能做不到的呢？
And then, is there anything left that AI can't do?
这些年来，我们帮客户避免和那些不可靠的人合作，这其实挺重要的。
And one example is, I think we've helped our clients over the years by not investing with bad people.
有时候你跟人打交道，说不上来为什么，就是觉得不对劲。
And sometimes you talk to people, and for undefinable reasons, you just say, You know what?
感觉不太对。
It doesn't feel right.
有个人跟我说过，后颈的汗毛都会竖起来。
As somebody said to me, The hair on your neck goes up.
如果真是这样，而AI又没有脖子上的汗毛，那或许经验丰富的投资者凭借直觉依然有其用武之地。
And if that's true, and if AI doesn't have hair on its neck, then maybe there's a role left for experienced investors with judgment.
我也是这么认为的。
I I believe so.
首先，总会有些事情是没有任何历史数据可供训练的。
First of all, there will always be things for which there is no history to train on.
而AI所做的一大半工作，无非是掌握历史、识别并推断模式。
And to the extent that a certain big percentage of what AI does is knowing history and recognizing and extrapolating patterns.
总有些领域是完全没有历史数据可循的。
There will always be stuff for which there is no history.
有些人就是更懂那些决定未来走向的概率分布。
There are just some people who have a better understanding of the probability distribution that defines future events.
我最近在读一本关于史蒂夫·科恩的书，里面提到他年轻时就展现出非凡的洞察力。
I was reading this book on Steve Cohen, and there was this part where they were describing how he was kind of like the man at a very young age.
他们说，他光是听股票行情声就能感受到市场动向。
They were like, He can just feel the ticker.
他完全跟市场融为一体，状态特别顺。
He just like is in tune and in flow with it.
我当时就想，这真美。
And I was like, oh, that's beautiful.
但我根本学不来。
But like, I can't replicate that.
我一直很好奇这一点，因为我觉得在你的一本书里提到过，你可以说服别人变好，但很难让人变得卓越。
And I was always curious about that because I think in one of your books, I think you'd said something like, I can make someone better, but I don't think I can make them great.
你能说说看，到底是什么让一个优秀的投资者真正出色吗？普通人又该怎么提升呢？
Can you talk to that about what it is that makes someone who is a good investor good, but also how the average person could get better?
还是说，这根本没法教，有就是有，没有就是没有？
Or do you believe that's not even possible, that you have it or you don't?
在我第一本书里，最重要的一点是，当时出版方哥伦比亚大学出版社在跟我们讨论这本书的内容。
Well, in in my first book, the most important thing, Columbia, which published the book, we were talking about the book.
他们说：‘你们先写一章样章看看。’
They said, well, write us a sample chapter.
于是我坐下来，写了一章我根本从来没想过的内容。
So I sat down, and I wrote a chapter that I had never even thought about.
结果这成了书里的第一章，里面写道：
And it turned out to be the first chapter in the book and it says
在这档节目里，我们花了大量时间采访了当今一些最顶尖的投资者。
On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive.
幸运的是，HubSpot 的团队把其中最重要的原则提炼出来，整理成了一本简单易读的财富指南。
Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easy to read wealth guide.
这本书汇集了顶级投资者的35条核心原则。
It's 35 principles from the top investors.
我们请来的都是像霍华德·马克斯、马尼什·帕尔、摩根·豪塞尔、凯西·伍德这样的大咖，还有好多其他人。
We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard Marks, Manish Parr, Morgan Housel, Kathy Wood, and a ton others.
这些全是他们自己的思维框架、认知模型和行动准则，说白了就是怎么长期布局、怎么避免破产。
So these are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules, basically how to play the long game and how to avoid ruin.
你可以在下面的链接里获取。
You can get it in the link below.
最关键的一点是第二层思维。
The most important thing is second level thinking.
第二层思维简单来说就是，如果你看到的跟别人没什么两样，那你肯定没法比别人强。
Second level thinking basically says, if you don't see anything different from everybody else, you can't possibly be superior.
所以要想胜出，你必须在某个时刻看到别人没看到的东西，也就是所谓的差异化认知。你得认为市场共识高估了这家公司的质量、增长速度、盈利能力，或者它理应享有的估值倍数。
So to be superior, you have to, at some point, see something different from other people, what's called the variant perception, that you have to either think that the the that the consensus of investors overstates the quality of the company, the growth rate of the company, the earning power of the company, or or maybe the multiple it deserves.
你得持有这种差异化认知，然后下注押注自己的判断，而且还得押对。
And you have to have this variant perception, and you have to bet on your perception, and you have to be right.
所以这就是第二层思维。
So that's for that's second level thinking.
我在书里提到过，当有人问我能不能教他们成为第二层思维者时，
I say in the book, and when people ask me, I say, can you teach me to be a second level thinker?
我的回答是不行。
And the answer is no.
我在书里也说了，我自己也不确定。
I say in the book, I don't know.
但我觉得，答案更偏向于‘不行’。
But I think it's more no than yes.
因为我能教你的，是像我在这章里讲的那样，理解成为二级思考者有多重要。
Because what I say is I can teach you the importance of being a second level thinker like I just have in this chapter.
但我没法告诉你，怎么形成和大众投资者相反、却又正确的观点。
But I can't tell you how to have perceptions that are at odds with the consensus of investors and correct.
就像打篮球有句话说：身高是教不出来的。
You know, in basketball, there's a saying, you can't coach height.
我觉得，有一种东西叫洞察力。
And I think there's something called insight.
有些人天生就有，但我不确定人工智能能不能拥有。
And I think some people have it, and I don't know if AI can have it.
因为当人们谈论通用人工智能时，意思是电脑或AI能完成人类能做的所有事。
Because when talk about artificial general intelligence and AGI is when a computer or AI can do everything that a human can do.
它真能做到吗？
Can it do that?
不清楚。
Don't know.
当我谈到人工智能的奥秘时，这绝对是其中一个大问题。
When I talk about the mysteries of AI, that's a big one of them.
即使它发展到完全成熟，会不会有些事情它还是做不到？
Are there things it won't be able to do, even when it reaches full flower?
你能回想一下你曾经做出的一些最重要判断吗？
Can you think back to some of the biggest calls that you've had?
那种感觉有多强烈？
How strong did that feel?
你当时还有怀疑，还是百分之百确信？
Did you still have doubt, or was it 100% conviction?
我很想听听那种感觉是怎样的。
I'm curious to hear what it feels like.
很好。
Great.
我想上一期我们聊过雷曼兄弟倒闭那天的事。
I think in our last episode, we talked about the day Lehman went under.
就是08年9月15号左右吧。
You know, September 15, maybe, of 'eight.
那时候我们觉得肯定会有一片混乱。
And we had thought that there was gonna be a mess.
在不良债务领域，2007年之前规模最大的基金是我们O2基金，有25亿美元。
And we had raised, in the distressed debt world, the biggest fund in history prior to 'seven was our o two fund, which was two and a half billion.
到了2007到2008年，我们又募集了110亿美元的不良债务基金，因为我们预感到会有大量不良资产出现。
And in 07/08, we raised 11,000,000,000 for a distressed debt fund because we thought that there was a lot of distress coming.
这笔钱我们早就备好了。
And we had it on the shelf.
它本来就是等着市场崩盘时出手用的。
It wasn't it was for deployment when the stuff hit the fan.
结果雷曼一倒，这不就是明摆着市场炸了嘛。
And Lehman goes under, which I think qualifies as saying the stuff has hit the fan.
但当时人人都在说世界末日要来了，所有金融机构都会崩盘，跟钱有关的一切都会彻底瓦解。
But people are talking about the end of the world, and all the financial institutions are gonna melt down, and everything having to do with money is gonna atomize.
所以我们面临一个问题：这笔钱到底投不投？
So we were faced with the question, do you invest the money?
可对于世界末日这种事，根本找不到任何先例可以参考。
And there's no pattern recognition for the end of the world.
疫情期间，一位哈佛流行病学家说过，我们做决策时，靠的是数据、过往经验的类比，还有推测。
And there's no In the pandemic, a Harvard epidemiologist said, When we make decisions, we have data, analogies to past experience, and supposition.
在雷曼破产那会儿，我们既没有数据，也没有任何类似的经验。
Well, at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, we had no data and no prior experience.
我们只能靠推测。
We only had supposition.
这真是个有意思的问题。
So this is an interesting question.
人工智能能进行这种思考吗？
Can AI have engaged in this kind of thinking?
我们当时的想法是，如果金融体系真的崩了，那投不投资都无所谓。
And what we said is that if the financial world melts down and we invest, doesn't matter.
但如果我们不投，而金融体系没崩，那我们就没尽到责任，所以必须投。
But if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't melt down, then we didn't do our job, so we have to do it.
于是我们就基于这个逻辑进行了投资。
And we invested on that basis.
布鲁斯负责管理这些资金，连续十五周，每周平均投入四亿五千万美元，整个季度累计达七十亿美元。
And Bruce, runs those funds, invested an average of $450,000,000 a week for fifteen weeks, 7,000,000,000 in a quarter.
当然，投资决策也不只是基于这一点。
On that well, it wasn't only on that.
我们还从量化角度分析，假设世界没有崩盘，当时市场上其实有很多超值的机会。
We also, on quantitative measures, assuming the world doesn't melt down, we were getting great bargains.
我们买入了一些公司的债务，即使那些公司两年前、三年前甚至四年前被私募股权收购时的估值，现在只剩原来的五分之一或四分之一，我们依然能保本。
We were buying the debt of companies where we would break even if companies that had been bought out by private equity guys two, three, four years earlier, if they ended up being worth a fifth or a fourth of what they had paid, we would still be okay.
从量化角度看，这个决定其实很清晰。
So that was pretty easy quantitatively.
但我们真的完全没有把握。
But we were absolutely not confident.
你没把握？
You weren't confident?
对，没把握。
No.
我还以为你会说相反呢。
I thought you were gonna say the opposite No.
这
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但说实话，我们这种人总是会想，我可能错了，或者事情可能会以从未见过的方式发展。
But, I mean, we're the kind of people who always say, I could be wrong, or it could work in a way that's never been seen before.
几年前我写过一篇备忘录，叫《测体温》，讲的是我过去二十六年里做的五个重大宏观判断。
And so we always I wrote a memo three or four years ago called Taking the Temperature about the five major calls, macro calls that I made in the last, well, in the last twenty six years.
这些判断背后都带着疑虑。
And they're all with some doubt.
市场崩盘的时候，到底为什么崩盘？
When the markets are crashing, why are they crashing?
因为新闻太糟了，所以才崩盘。
They're crashing because the news is terrible.
我读的报纸和你一样。
I read the same newspapers.
我看的电视节目也跟你一样。
I watch the same shows on TV.
我关注的新闻推送也没区别。
I'm attached to the same news feeds.
我也看到那些糟糕的新闻。
I see the terrible news.
在我眼里，情况确实很糟。
It looks terrible to me.
但我还是想办法挺过来了，最后想：不，我该进场投资。
I overcome it in some way and conclude, no, I should invest.
但我并不是对别人看到的东西免疫。
But I'm not immune to what everybody else is reading.
如果你做这些事的时候毫无畏惧，那我觉得你可能有点问题。
If you do these things without any trepidation, you know, maybe there's something wrong with you.
但那些习惯用概率思维看待世界、承认自己无知和不确定的人，不可能在行动时不感到忐忑。
But, you know, people who look at the world probabilistically and admit to ignorance and uncertainty can't act without trepidation.
嘿，你能说说你是怎么筹集到110亿美元的吗？你刚才说得好像很轻松似的。
Hey, can you tell me about raising $11,000,000,000 because you said that, like, very casually.
比如，我们筹集了110亿美元的基金，这感觉就像我随口一说，嘿。
Like, so we raised an $11,000,000,000 fund, and that's like if I just said, hey.
我直接把水变成了酒。
I just turned water into wine.
我觉得对大多数人来说，我只是真的很好奇。
I think for for for most people is I I'm just actually curious.
这是怎么发生的？
How does that happen?
你是去找人说，嘿，
Is that is that you go to people and you say, hey.
我们觉得这个世界是这样的，你得说得特别有说服力。
We think the world's you make a really persuasive case.
你用的是融资演示文稿吗？
Are you using a pitch deck?
纯粹靠以前的人脉关系？
Is this just prior relationships?
你是在卖未来的高回报？
Are you selling upside?
还是在卖抗风险的保障，让人安心？
Are you selling safety against downside and fear?
到底要怎么做，才能像这样筹到一千一百亿美元？
Like, what what actually goes in to raising $11,000,000,000 like that?
其实有一套方法。
So there's a list of things.
第一，肯定是之前的经验。
Number one, certainly prior experience.
人脉关系。
Relationships.
我们从1988年就开始做这个生意了，算下来已经二十年了。
People have We started this business in 1988, and so we're talking about twenty years later.
这二十年里，我们管理过大量资金，为很多人带来了非常好的回报，所以你可以依靠这份长期积累的信任。
And in the twenty years, we managed a lot of money and had very good results for a lot of people, and so you can work on that reservoir of goodwill.
第二，这个策略特别适合在危机时期使用。
Number two, this strategy is particularly well suited for crisis.
我们曾经经历过几次危机，比如1991年和2001年，表现都非常出色。
And we had managed money through a few crises, 1991 and 'one-'two, and done exceptionally well.
所以我们能让人相信，首先，你的很多投资都是基于繁荣期设计的。
So, we were able to convince people that, number one, so many of your investments are set up for prosperity.
而这个方法能很好地对冲风险——当情况恶化时，它反而能表现得特别好。
This is a good way to hedge it by making an investment that will do particularly well if the stuff hits the fan.
但我们还能指出环境中存在的问题。
But we were also able to call attention to flaws in the environment.
那些引发全球金融危机的因素，我们当时就能谈得清楚，也能指出来。
The things that gave rise to the global financial crisis, we could talk about and we could point out.
而且你知道，市场没有履行它作为约束者的主要职责。
And, you know, the fact that the market was not acting as a disciplinarian, which is its main job.
市场的主要作用是，当有人跑来说想为这个、这个和这个筹钱时，市场应该说：不行，这根本说不通。
Main job is to you know, people come in and say, want money for this, this, and this, and the market's job is to say, no, that doesn't make any sense.
这想法太蠢了。
That's a stupid idea.
我们不会投这种项目。
We're not gonna invest in that.
这才是市场该做的事。
That's the job.
但有时候，市场就是不干这活儿。
And sometimes the market doesn't do that job.
当市场不履行这个职责时，愚蠢的点子就会被揭穿。
And when the market doesn't do that job, then dumb ideas get denounced.
等这些点子被证明是愚蠢的，人们就开始亏钱。
And and when they turn out to be dumb, people lose money.
所以我认为，我们成功让很多人意识到，确实有些荒唐的事在发生。
So I think we were able to convince people that some dumb things were happening.
当然，布鲁斯·卡尔什多年来在投资上的表现，也赢得了极大的尊重。
And then, of course, there's a great respect for for Bruce Karsh for the investing he's done of over the years.
我想，这就是我们能做成这些事的主要原因。
I think those are the main reasons why we were able to do it.
话说回来，你一针见血。
And by the way, you hit the nail on the head.
我们在危机爆发之前就做到了。
We did it in advance of the crisis.
投资的最佳时机，就是在危机当中。
The best time to invest is in a crisis.
危机期间根本没法筹到钱，因为消息太糟了。
You can't raise money during the crisis because the news is so terrible.
我跟我太太特别喜欢看一部电影，叫《间谍游戏》，主演是罗伯特·雷德福。
So, you know, my wife and I have a favorite movie we watched called Spy Game with Robert Redford.
电影里雷德福说，诺亚造方舟是在什么时候？
Says in the Redford says, When did Noah build the ark?
在洪水之前。
Before the flood.
你得在洪水来之前就把方舟造好。
You gotta build the ark before the flood.
你得有预感，知道可能要发大水。
You have to have some sense that there may be a flood.
还有一点要补充。
But one other point.
过去二十年里，我们好几次都觉得会有绝佳的投资机会，而且通常都猜对了，因为我们准确把握了市场情绪，筹到了大笔资金，投了进去，赚了不少钱。
In the prior twenty years, there had been these occasions when we thought there was going to be a great investment opportunity, and we were generally right because we took the temperature of the market accurately, and we raised a large fund, and we invested in it, and we made a lot of money.
但我们的下一支基金规模变小了，因为我们觉得机会没那么好了。
But then our next fund was smaller because we thought the opportunities weren't as good.
现在投资圈里大多数人，如果上一支基金表现很好，下一支就会更大，因为他们能靠过去的业绩来募资。但我们相反，觉得成绩越好，说明资产价格已经涨上去了，吸引力反而下降了，所以就做小。
Now most people in the investment business, if they have a fund that does great, the next fund is bigger because they can sell on the back But of those we make it smaller because we think those results mean that things have appreciated and are not so attractive.
我觉得，这么做了二十年，我们积累了不少信誉。
And I think that having done that for twenty years, I think we gained a lot of credibility.
大家通常会觉得，当霍华德和布鲁斯说有好机会时，他们不是为了募资才这么说的，他们是真相信，而且往往是对的。
And I think people tend to say when Howard and Bruce say there's a great opportunity, they're not just trying to raise money, they really believe it, and they tend to be right.
有时候，你得违背自己的利益，承认自己的局限，承认自己的不确定。
And sometimes you have to speak against your own interest and admit your limitations and admit your uncertainties.
所以1998年，长期资本管理公司崩盘了。
So in 1998, we had the meltdown of long term capital management.
当时还爆发了俄罗斯卢布危机。
We had a Russian ruble crisis.
东南亚也陷入了恐慌。
We had a panic in Southeast Asia.
尤其是当长期资本管理公司垮掉的时候，橡树资本一位年轻的基金经理来找我。
And especially with long term going under, one of the skilled portfolio managers, young portfolio managers at Oaktree came to me.
他说，我觉得这次真的完了。
He says, I think this is it.
我觉得市场要崩盘了。
I think we're melting down.
一切都结束了。
It's all over.
我就问他，你具体担心什么？
And I said, well, tell me your concerns.
他把他的顾虑一一说了出来。
And he laid out his concerns.
我说，嗯，我明白了。
And I said, okay.
我理解你的意思。
I I understand it.
现在回你座位上去，专心工作。
Now go back to your desk and do your job.
你明白吧？
You know?
真正的勇士不是没有恐惧的人。
Battle hero is not somebody who's unafraid.
而是明知道害怕，却依然选择去做的人。
It's somebody who's afraid but does it anyway.
如果你冲进枪林弹雨却一点都不怕，那才不正常。
If you're running into a hail of bullets and you're not afraid, there's something wrong with you.
但你还是得上，因为这是你必须做的事。
But you do it anyway because it's what you have to do.
我不想去神化什么。
And I don't want to elevate.
我不是说我们跟战场上的英雄一样，但你得带着不安，照样往前走。
I'm not saying we're analogous to a combat hero, but you have to do it despite your trepidation.
顺便说一句，如果你非要等到完全没得怕的时候才行动，那机会可能早就溜走了。
By the way, if you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed.
这点说得太好了。
That's a great point.
你刚才提到了布鲁斯，我想问问你，因为看起来你们合作很久了，得有三十多年了吧？
You mentioned Bruce, and I wanted to ask you about this because it seems like you guys have had a very long term partnership now, what, thirty plus years.
我觉得大家很少讨论这一点，也就是在一段关系中复利的价值，以及如何做一个能长期合作的靠谱伙伴。
I think people don't talk about that enough, the value of compounding in a relationship and how to be a good partner for the long term.
糟糕的合作关系可能会毁了你，但我们很少同时讨论，究竟需要做到什么才能建立一段出色的合作关系。
A bad partnership can ruin you, but we don't really talk about what it takes to make a great partnership at the same time.
如果你要教我和Sam，假设我们说，嘿，我和Sam想把这个播客做上三十年，或者，你知道，我有个商业伙伴叫Ben，我想跟他做生意做上三十年，那我们得把哪些关键点做对，才能实现这一点呢？
If you were gonna teach me and Sam, if we said, hey, me and Sam wanna do this podcast for thirty years, or, you know, I have a business partner, Ben, I wanna be in business with him for thirty years, what do we gotta get right to do that?
这是个很好的问题，Shaan。
Well, it's a great question, Shaan.
这非常重要。
It's very important.
这个月，我和布鲁斯已经合作三十九年了，这可以说是人生中最珍贵的事之一。
Bruce and I have been partners for thirty nine years this month, and it's one of the greatest things in our lives.
我想我们俩都会说，除了家人，或许再加上一些真挚的友谊，这段关系是我们拥有的最好的东西。
I think we would both say that after family and maybe some good friendships, it's really the best thing we've had.
这么多年来，我们一直紧密合作。
We've worked together closely for all that period.
我们共同取得了不少成就，也享受了很多乐趣，而且从来没见过面吵架。
We've obviously produced a lot of success, had a lot of fun, have never had a fight.
我们会有观点上的分歧，但从来没吵过架，大概因为我们俩都不是那种把钱看得最重的人，而很多争执其实都是因为钱。
We have intellectual disagreements, but we've never had a fight, probably because neither of us is really a financial maximizer, and a lot of fights are probably about money.
我们关系的根基是相互尊重，如果没有这份尊重，我想很难维持一段长久而成功的合作关系。
The bedrock of our relationship is mutual respect, and I think it would be very hard to have a successful long term relationship with a partner if you didn't have respect for each other.
这其实也关联到我以前在O2写过的一件事。
And that ties into something I wrote in o two, I think.
在O2的时候，我写过一篇叫《最重要的事》的备忘录。
But in o two, I wrote a memo called the most important thing.
里面有一部分讲到了如何建立成功的合作关系。
And there was a section in there which talked about having a successful partnership.
我说过，成功合作的关键在于价值观一致和技能互补。
And I said, the key to a successful partnership is shared values and complementary skills.
如果你的价值观不一致，我觉得根本不可能有成功的合作。
If you don't share values, I don't think you can have a successful partnership.
比如说，一个人特别激进，另一个人却特别胆小。
Let's say one person is super aggressive and the other's a chicken.
一个人特别讲原则，另一个人却总想走捷径。
One person is super ethical and the other one likes to cut corners.
我觉得这样的关系，这样的搭档，是不可能成功的。
I don't think you can have a successful relationship, partnership.
我见过太多太多这样的例子了。
And I've seen many, many, you know.
我小时候，有个朋友，那时候AT&T上市了。
I mean, a friend of mine, when I was a kid, AT and T went public.
你能想象AT&T还没上市那会儿的日子吗？
Can you imagine the days before AT and T was public?
不过话说回来，他们最终还是上市了。
But anyway, they went public.
那是历史上最大的一次IPO，报纸上登了整版的纪念广告，列出了所有参与的投行，大概有四十家。
It was the biggest deal in history, and they had a full page tombstone ad in the newspaper, and it listed all the investment firms that were the investment bankers, and there were probably 40.
我有个朋友，叫埃德·拉姆斯德尔，当时一直留着那张广告。
And a friend of mine, Ed Ramsdell, used to carry that ad around.
每有一家投行倒闭，他就用笔划掉一个名字。
And every time one went out of business, he would mark it off.
最后，我觉得几乎全都没了，就剩下高盛还在。
And eventually, I think they almost all disappeared except for Goldman Sachs.
可为什么它们会接连倒闭呢？
But why do they why do they go under?
因为里面既有冒险冒进的，也有畏首畏尾的。
You have some cowboys and some chickens.
在困难时期，鸡会说，牛仔们快把我们害死了。
And, you know, in the when in bad times, the chickens say the cowboys are getting us killed.
而在顺境时，牛仔又会说，鸡拖了我们的后腿，彼此互相看不顺眼。
And in good times, the cowboys say the chickens are holding us back, and they disparage each other.
所以在我看来，你们得有共同的价值观。
So you have to share values, in my opinion.
另一点是，你们得有互补的技能。
The other thing is you have to have complementary skills.
伙伴关系的妙处就在于，你的搭档能做你做不到的事。
So the beauty of a partnership is when your partner can do things you can't.
这意味着你们俩能互相增益，产生协同效应。
That means that you are both additive to each other, synergistic.
如果我能做你所有的事，或者我以为我能，那我干嘛还需要你？
If I can do everything you can do, or if I think that, what do I need you for?
这种关系撑不了多久，迟早我会觉得你拿的钱太多了。
It's not gonna last very long, because eventually I'm gonna say you're overpaid.
我不需要你。
I don't need you.
我和布鲁斯的关系妙就妙在，我们都清楚对方擅长的事自己不擅长，而且对方愿意做那些自己不想做的事。
And the beauty of my relationship with Bruce is that we both recognize that there are things that the other is good at that we're not, and that the other wants to is willing to do that we don't wanna do.
比如从一开始，1987年布鲁斯就来找我，提议搞一个困境债务基金。
For example, from the very beginning, Bruce approached me in in '87 with the idea of a distressed debt fund.
你知道，我1978年就进了高收益债券这一行，而他有法律背景，之前做过一些困境投资，效果不错，于是他来找我，说咱们不如搞个困境债务基金，那会儿这想法还挺新颖的。
You know, I went into the high yield bond business in '78, and he had a a background in law and got into some distressed investments, which went well, and he said came to me, said, should do a distressed debt fund, and it was quite a novel idea.
但从一开始，我就负责外出见客户、路演，布鲁斯则留在后方管钱。
But from the beginning, you know, I go on the road and talk to people, and Bruce stays back and manages the money.
我会上像你这样的播客，布鲁斯从不上。
I go on podcasts with people like you, and Bruce doesn't.
第三点，你得懂得感恩。
But the third element is you gotta be appreciative.
你得庆幸自己有个搭档，愿意做你不想做的那些事。
And you have to thank your lucky stars that you have a partner who will do the stuff you don't want to do.
那在育儿方面，你也能做到这样吗？
Can you do the same towards parenting?
因为在这期和上期节目里，你多次提到你儿子。
Because both on this episode and last one, you referenced your son a bunch.
你有没有什么心得，能养出一个你不仅爱、还特别愿意和他待在一起的孩子？
Do you have any insights into how you've been able to raise a kid that you not just love, but you enjoy being around?
你知道吗，大概三十年前，福布斯杂志上有一篇文章，讲的是唯一一个在华尔街开诊所的心理医生。
Well, you know, I think it was Forbes thirty or forty years ago had an article about so and so who was the only shrink with an office on Wall Street.
他们问这位医生，他的病人有什么共同问题，当然，那些病人全是男人，毕竟那是很久以前的华尔街。
And they asked this guy about his patients' problems, and he said that his patients' problems and they were all men, of course, because it was Wall Street a long time ago.
他说，病人的困扰程度，和他们从父亲那里得到的支持成反比。
His patients' problems were inversely proportional to the support they got from their fathers.
昨晚我们请人来家里吃饭，聊到一个挺有特点的人。
We had people over for dinner last night, and one of the guys and we were talking about so and so who was a character of some kind.
其中一个人说，你知道吗？
And one of the guys said, well, you know what?
他父亲待他特别糟糕。
His father treated him like hell.
我从来就不想当那样的父亲。
I just never wanted to be that father.
你会发现，很多男人，尤其是特别成功的人，总得在儿子面前证明自己高人一等。
And it's amazing how many men, and especially so successful men, have to assert their superiority over their sons.
女儿可能也有这种情况，但我觉得在儿子身上更明显。
Maybe daughters too, but I think it's more with sons.
这大概跟弗洛伊德说的有关，或者别的什么心理机制吧。
And I guess it's Freudian or or something else.
但想想看，这多糟糕啊——有了孩子，还得靠压着他来证明自己更聪明。
But it's what a terrible thing that you have to if you had this kid, and you have to prove you're smarter.
所以我一直让安德鲁在某些方面比我强。
And so, you know, I mean, I always let Andrew be smarter than me in in some things.
当然，只要是他在乎的事，我都会全力支持他。
And, of course, I always gave him full support in the things he wanted to do.
如果孩子想做点什么，只要不会伤到自己，而且也没啥大风险，就让他们去试。
If your kids wanna do something, and, a, it's not gonna be injurious, and, yeah, maybe there's no b, let them do it.
比如我女儿从小学毕业选中学时，申请了洛杉矶两所好学校，都录了，我们就让她自己选。
Like, when my daughter was getting out of lower school and had to choose an upper school, she applied to the two good schools in LA, got in, and we'd let her choose.
我和我妻子其实心里有倾向，但最后还是觉得，就像我常说的，我们也可能想错了。
My wife and I had a sense for which one we wanted her to go to, but we concluded that, like I always say, we could be wrong.
我们选的未必就是对的。
Our choice could be the wrong choice.
再说，这两所学校，就算有一所稍微好点，但哪一所都不算差。
And anyway, of the two choices, while one might be better than the other, neither was a bad choice.
既然这样，不如让孩子自己做决定。
So, if that's true, let the kid make the choice.
这样他们能学会做选择，甚至学会做错选择——这特别重要。
And they get experience with making choices, and maybe they get experience with making incorrect choices, which is very important.
嘿。
Hey.
咱们先休息一下。
Let's take a quick break.
你有没有过这种感觉？策略定了，brief写好了，大家都达成一致了，结果才发现还得有人坐下来把所有内容真真切切地做出来？
You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, everyone's aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create all the content?
这个人通常就是你，而且明天就得交稿。
That someone is usually you, and it's due tomorrow.
不过，HubSpot的Breeze助手能帮上忙。
Well, the Breeze assistant from HubSpot can help.
它直接集成在HubSpot里，用起来特别顺手。
It works right inside HubSpot.
你可以用你自己的品牌语气，结合真实的客户数据，快速起草活动文案、博客文章、邮件内容。
You can draft campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice, all using your actual customer data.
你做的不只是内容。
So you don't create just content.
你做的是能带来转化的内容。
You create content that converts.
去 hubspot.com 看看吧，这是专为成长型企业打造的智能客户平台。
Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses.
说到选择，我其实挺想听听你的看法。
On the subject of choice, I have a I'm I'm interested to know.
你想想，年轻的时候，比如说你二十一岁，正琢磨着这辈子要干点啥。
You know, when you were younger, you let's say you're 21 years old, and you're trying to figure out what you wanna do with your life.
你迟早得想清楚一件事：每天花八个小时，占你清醒时间一半的事，到底想干啥。
Probably one of the more important questions you should figure out at some point is what do I wanna actually do every day for eight hours a day, that half my waking hours.
我猜很少有十九岁的年轻人会一觉醒来就说：我想搞不良债务和债券。
And I doubt that a lot of 19 year olds wake up and say, I wanna work with distressed debt and bonds.
那种目标，在那个年纪根本没法想明白。
You know, that's not a that's not a knowable answer at that stage.
你觉得该怎么找到真正适合自己的方向？
What do you think is the right approach to figuring out your thing?
首先我得说，詹，你刚才说的那种情况，我当年做得特别差。
First, I wanna say upfront, Jen, that the thing you described, I did a terrible job of.
我当时根本没意识。
I was unconscious.
在我二十岁之前做的那些决定，就像宗教里说的，我根本没用心去选。
The decisions I made in my first twenty years, as they say in religion, I did not apply intention.
我让别人替我做决定。
I I let other people make the decision.
我完全是随随便便做的选择。
I made decisions haphazardly.
我根本没怎么认真想过。
I didn't think about it a lot.
回想起来，我对自己当年的决策方式感到很羞愧。
I'm embarrassed at how terrible my decision making process was.
其实，那根本算不上什么‘决策’，用这个词都不合适。
In fact, it's a misnomer to apply that term.
不过话说回来，我觉得做选择还是应该有意识、有条理才行。
But having said that, I think it's desirable to make your choices with intention, well reasoned, etcetera.
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我常对孩子们说，我最欣赏的一句话，是作家克里斯托弗·莫利说的：人生只有一种成功，那就是按照自己的方式生活。
And what I tell kids is my favorite quote, is from a writer named Christopher Morley, who said, There's only one success, to live your life your own way.
我觉得这句话特别美。
I think it's a beautiful quote.
我去过沃顿、哈佛，还有哥伦比亚大学这些地方。
You know, I go to Wharton and Harvard and all these places in Columbia.
我会跟他们说，你们能坐在这间教室里，大概就已经具备了按照自己方式生活的条件。
And I say, and you know, the fact that you're in this room probably means that you can live your life your own way.
你们在智力和努力程度上，大概都有能力活出自己想要的人生。
You probably have what it takes to live your life your own way intellectually and work ethic and so forth.
但关键是要弄清楚，你真正想要的是什么。
But you have to figure out what it is.
这才是最难的。
That's the hard part.
你到底是谁？
Who are you?
我想对他们说的是，试着找一份能发挥你优势、避开你短板，并且让你开心的工作。
And what I'd say to them is try to find something that will play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, and make you happy.
这话听起来好像挺有道理的。
What that means is, well, that sounds obvious.
毕竟，谁不想照着这个建议去做呢？
Well, who the hell wouldn't wouldn't follow that instruction?
但真正的意思是，你不能让朋友来决定你该做什么。
Well, the answer is, what it means is, you can't let your friends decide what you should do.
不能因为朋友在做，你就跟着做。
You can't do things because your friends are doing them.
不能让社会来决定你该做什么。
You can't let society decide what you should do.
不能让父母来决定你该做什么。
You can't let your parents decide what you should do.
你得自己好好想想。
You have to think it out for yourself.
话虽如此，这真的很难，因为了解自己并不容易，而且我们知道，二十年后的你会变成完全不同的人。
Having said that, it's very difficult because it's hard to know yourself, and we know that in twenty years you'll be a different person.
那你现在怎么决定，什么才能让未来的你感到幸福呢？
How can you make a decision today on what will make that person happy?
确实很难，但你必须去尝试。
Very difficult, but you've got to try.
这就是我的建议，可惜我小时候没听，当时很任性，但运气不错。
That's my advice, which I didn't take when I was a kid, and I was derelict, but I got lucky.
不过你最终还是成了你所说的那种，有良好意图的人。
Well, you eventually did become, as you described, living well intentioned.
是的。
Yes.
一定有什么地方发生了变化。
Something must have changed.
你记得自己做过什么练习，才变成这样的吗？
Do you remember did you do any exercises to become that way?
我记不太清了。
Not that I recall.
我觉得有一部分原因是，我说过接下来的二十五年我都没这么做。
I think part of it, you know, and I said for the next twenty five years, I didn't do it.
一直到大约1995年，我才离开去和布鲁斯一起创办橡树资本。
That took me up till, roughly '95, which is when I left with Bruce to start Oaktree.
那真的算是一个转折点。
That was really
这太有意思了。
That's so interesting.
等等，你是说直到五十岁左右，你都一直在随波逐流，按别人的期望生活？
Wait, so you think that up until the age of 50 or 49, you were floating or living according to other people?
不只是那样，更关键的是，我从来没做过清醒的、有意识的决定。
Well, not just that, but just not making good decisions, conscious decisions.
你想想，我1969年从芝加哥大学毕业，为什么偏偏去了花旗银行的投资研究部？
You know, why did I go to Citibank Investment Research Department when I got out of University of Chicago in 1969?
因为前一年夏天我在那儿过得特别好。
Because I had a good summer there the year before.
我为什么从股票研究部调到债券部门？
Why did I move from the Equity Research Department to the Bond Department?
因为我在股票研究部干得不顺，人家让我走人。
Because my work in Equity Research was unsuccessful, and I was told to get out.
我为什么在1980年搬去加州？
Why did I move to California in 1980?
因为阳光好。
Sunshine.
还有棕榈树。
Palm trees.
我真不能说，我那时候做的是什么明智的决定。
I just can't claim, that I was making good decisions.
1978年我被调到花旗银行的债券部门，三个月后，债券部主管找我，因为我当时没什么活儿干。
I got sent to the bond department at Citibank in 1978, and three months later, the head of the bond department calls me up since I was I didn't have that much to do.
我当时挺闲的。
I was fairly idle.
他说，加州有个叫米尔肯的人，搞一种叫高收益债券的东西。
And he says, there's a guy named Milken or something in California, and he deals in something called high yield bonds.
你觉得他能明白这是什么意思吗？
Do you think he can figure out what that means?
那纯粹是运气。
That was just luck.
你知道的，要是读过马尔科姆·格拉德威尔的《异类》，就会明白，那真的只是运气。
You know, if you read Madeline Gladwell and Outliers, it was just luck.
时机对了，地方也对了。
Right time, right place.
要是那通电话打来的时候我出去吃午饭了，可能接电话的就是别人，那现在坐在这儿的就是他了。
And if that call came at lunchtime and I had been out at lunch, maybe somebody else would get the call, and they'd be me.
你的谦逊让我特别印象深刻。
Your humility is very striking to me.
我们这个播客里有很多人，自称谦虚，或者想表现得谦虚。
We have a lot of people on this podcast that I think claim to be humble or try to be humble.
你真的是一个特别谦逊的人。
You really are an extremely humble person.
我之前记过一条笔记，从今以后，我每份投资备忘录开头都写上：‘我可能错了，但……’因为我每次做投资时，都太爱炫耀自己的兴奋和热情，总觉得自己看得很准，这步棋走对了。
I mean, one note I wrote down is from now on at the top of all my investor memos, I'm just gonna start it with, I could be wrong, but because I think whenever I make an investment, I'm so boastful about my excitement and my exuberance and why this is right and why this is the right move to do.
我觉得你多少也让我沾染了一点你的谦逊。
And I think, you know, you've kind of infected me with a little bit of your humility there.
你做投资是因为你相信它，但更重要的是，你要看到另一面，清楚自己在做什么。
Well, you make the investment because you believe in it, but it's important to see the other side and know what you're doing.
顺便说一句，丘吉尔说过，他是个谦虚的人，而他确实有足够多的理由谦虚。
By the way, Churchill said he's a he's a humble man, and he has a lot to be humble about.
但马克·吐温说，让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事。
But Mark Twain says, It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.
而是你确信无疑、其实根本不对的事。
It's what you know for certain that just ain't true.
我总是跟人说，跟你刚才讲的一样，约翰，开头说‘我可能不对，但是’或者‘我不确定，但是’的句子，从来不会让人出问题。
And I always tell people, in line with what you just said, John, sentence that starts with, I could be wrong, but, or, I don't know, but, ever got anybody into trouble.
真正让人出问题的是那些说‘我百分百确信’的句子。如果你真觉得自己百分百正确，下注时也像百分百正确那样去赌，结果却发现其实只有八成对、两成错，那两成冒出来的时候，你就麻烦大了。
The sentences that get people into trouble are, I'm 100% convinced that, and if you really feel that you're 100% right and you bet like you're 100% right and it turns out it was only eightytwenty and the 20 comes up, that's how you get into big trouble.
所以我觉得马克·吐温说的那句话特别重要。
So I think the thing that Mark Twain said was incredibly important.
是的。
Yeah.
肖恩最近发给我的一份关于某个交易的备忘录里写的是：把所有家当都押上，就这一次了。
Last memo Sean sent me about some deal he had was bet everything you have, this is it.
把房子也抵押了。
Mortgage the house.
我有个问题想问你，关于巴菲特的。
Hey, can I ask you about Buffett?
巴菲特曾经说过，他会读你的备忘录。
Buffett famously has said, he reads your memos.
我猜你们之间有过接触吧。
I assume you guys have interacted.
你们平时有来往吗？
Do you guys hang out?
他这个人怎么样？
What's he like?
给我讲讲你和沃伦·巴菲特之间的故事吧，你亲身经历的。
Give me some Warren Buffett stories from your life, your experience.
其实布鲁斯一直都很关注巴菲特。
Well, Bruce actually was, always a Buffett watcher.
如果你回溯到八十年代，那时候……
And if you go back to the eighties no.
我觉得没人听说过巴菲特。
I don't think anybody had heard of Buffett.
可能九十年代初也还没人知道他。
Maybe not the nineties.
我记不太清了。
I don't remember exactly.
到了九十年代末，大家都说巴菲特过时了，因为他没碰科技股。
In the in the late nineties, people said, well, Buffett's lost it because he's not in tech.
结果后来科技股突然暴涨。
And then, of course, tech blew up.
于是大家又说，看来巴菲特确实有他的道理。
And then they said, oh, maybe Buffett knows what he's doing.
不过话说回来，当安然公司垮台时，它大部分的不当行为都是通过表外实体做的，这里面机会不少。
But, anyway, when Enron melted down, Enron did most of its misbehavior through off balance sheet entities, and there was a lot of opportunity there.
所以我们成了其中一家公司债务的最大持有者。
And so we became the largest holder of the debt of one of them.
那家公司叫奥司普雷。
It was called Osprey.
而沃伦是第二大股东。
And Warren was the second largest holder.
我记不清具体是怎么回事了，但他把投票权交给了我们，让我们代他打理这个仓位。
And I don't remember how it came to pass, but he gave us his proxy, and he let us run that position for him.
布鲁斯把这家公司重组得非常出色，我们最后大获全胜。
And Bruce did a masterful job of restructuring that company, and we came out with a big big win.
这事大概发生在2002年左右。
So this was around o two.
到了2003或2004年，沃伦给布鲁斯写了一封信，说：‘你们在Osprey上的工作干得漂亮，要是哪天来奥马哈，记得告诉我。’
So around o three or four, Warren writes Bruce a letter, and he says, know, nice job on on Osprey, and if you ever find yourself in Omaha, let me know.
咱们一起吃个午饭。
We'll have lunch.
于是布鲁斯和我给沃伦回了封信。
So Bruce and I write him a letter.
布鲁斯在信里说：‘巧了，这周我和霍华德正好要去奥马哈。’
Bruce writes him a letter and says, it happens that Howard and I will be in an Omaha this week.
我们请您吃个饭，行吗？
Can we take you to lunch?
就这样，我们认识了。
And and so that's how we met.
这段关系一开始就很温馨，之后也一直这样维持着。
And the relationship had a lovely start, and it went on like that.
从那以后，我们再没做过任何生意，因为他总在找能收购的大项目，而我们并不做这种能被收购的大生意。
We never actually did any business together after that because, you know, he was always looking for something big that he could acquire, and and we don't we don't really deal in big, acquirable things.
但我们的私人关系一直很好。
But it was a very nice personal relationship.
我以前从没跟别人提过这件事。
And I don't I've never said this to anybody else before.
但在2009年，我写了一份备忘录，里面提到了他，就发给了他。
But in o nine, I wrote a memo in which I mentioned him, and I sent it to him.
我说：‘我想确保你看到这份备忘录，因为里面提到了你。’
And I said, I wanna make sure that you see this memo because it mentions you.
他回我说：‘我确实会看那些备忘录， blah blah blah。'
And he says, I do see the memos in blah blah blah.
我确实看过这个。
And, I have seen this.
他说，对了，你该写本书。
He says, and by the way, you should write a book.
如果你真写了，我给你写个推荐语。
And if you do, I'll give you a blurb for the book.
所以我才写了第一本书，这事儿最关键。
And that's why I wrote the first book, most important thing.
我本来一直觉得，等退休了再写书。
I always thought I'd write a book when I retired.
但你想想，要是沃伦·巴菲特这样的人给你留了这样的消息，你哪能搁着不动呢？
But instead, you know, when when you get that kind of note from a guy like Warren Buffett, you you can't let it sit.
所以，这事就这么开始了。
So that was that was the start of that.
不过呢，我有幸去见过他几次，这真是很大的福气。
But, you know, I I've been fortunate to visit him a few times, and, and it's it's a big plus.
关于沃伦的神秘感，或者巴菲特这个人，你认为大众的传言有没有哪里是误解或不准确的？
Is there any part about the Warren mystique, the Buffett personality that you think, like, popular lore gets wrong or is inaccurate?
没有。
No.
我觉得他就是表里如一的人。
I think it's mostly what you see is what you get.
我想有一件事很多人不知道，不是误解，而是根本不知道——那就是他对查理的深情。
The one thing I'll say that I don't think people know about, they don't get wrong, they don't know about, is the depth of his love for Charlie.
沃伦曾经发过一封信。
And Warren sent out a note.
我觉得是去年感恩节的时候。
I think it was at Thanksgiving last year.
他说，我不会参加伯克希尔的年会了，也不会写什么什么了，反正就是这类事。
And he said, you know, I'm not gonna be at the Berkshire meeting, and I'm not going to be writing this or that, whatever it was.
他谈到了他和查理的关系， anybody who wants to should get a hold of that letter and see it because it's we talked earlier about the importance of a partnership and how great a contributor to your life it can be, and that's what he had with Charlie.
And he talked about his relationship with Charlie, and anybody who wants to should get a hold of that letter and see it because it's we talked earlier about the importance of a partnership and how great a contributor to your life it can be, and that's what he had with Charlie.
我记得他曾经说过，查理像是个大哥，而他自己则是小弟。
I think, as I recall, he talked about Charlie being the big brother and and and himself being the little brother.
我觉得我和布鲁斯的关系也差不多是这样。
And I think we can say that about my relationship with Bruce.
不知为什么，他一直对我所扮演的角色非常友善，也很慷慨地认可我的贡献。
And for one reason or another, he's always been very kind to me about my role, and generous about my role.
他肯定和我一样聪明，一样有才华，只是表现方式可能不同。
He's certainly as smart as I am and as talented as I am, maybe in different ways.
但之间始终有一种尊重、温情和爱意。
But there was always this this feeling of respect and affection and love.
随着时间推移，我们越来越能体会到这一点。
And and as the more time passes, the more we're conscious of that.
他和我之间的关系，就像沃伦和查理那样，看着真让人感动。
He and I and that's what Warren and Charlie had, and it was a beautiful thing to watch.
另外，沃伦特别喜欢讲一些关于查理的趣事，那种事可真不少。
And also, Warren used to love telling funny stories about Charlie, of which there were a lot.
他们之间的关系总是充满了幽默感。
And their relationship was always suffused with humor.
好的。
Okay.
所以你可能在播客里听过这个观点，但如果你经营一家公司，我认为决定你能否在商业上取得成功的首要特质，就是你从他人身上学习的速度，特别是从其他企业家身上学习的速度。
So you probably have heard this on the podcast, but if you're running a company, I think that the number one attribute that will determine if you are gonna succeed in business is how fast you can learn from others, specifically how fast you can learn from other entrepreneurs.
但这样做有个问题。
But there's a problem with that.
我有个毛病，其实你估计也有。
I have this problem, and in fact, you probably have it too.
这也是你一开始就听《My First Million》的原因之一。
That's one of the reasons why you listen to My First Million in the first place.
问题在于，想找那些成功的创业者来学习，真的挺费劲的。
The problem is that finding other successful entrepreneurs to learn from, it's a pain in the butt.
所以几年前，我创办了一家公司，叫Hampton。
And so that's why a few years ago, I started a company called Hampton.
你可以去 joinhampton.com 了解一下。
You can check it out at joinhampton.com.
我们有成千上万的成员，他们加入就是为了这个目的。
We have thousands of members and they exist for this exact reason.
下面是它的运作方式。
So here's how it works.
如果你是一家年收入至少三百万美元的创始人，并且通过了我们极其严格的审核，我们会把你和另外九位创业者匹配成一个小组。
If you're a founder that does at least 3,000,000 in revenue and you make it through our incredibly thorough vetting process, we then match you and put you in a group with nine other entrepreneurs.
你们每个月会在各自所在的城市线下聚会一次，这个圈子会彻底改变你的生活。
You meet in real life in your city once a month and it becomes your peer group that will frankly change your entire life.
它已经改变了我的人生。
It's changed mine.
我自己也是其中一个成员。
I'm in a group as well.
所以，如果你是一家年收入至少三百万美元的创始人，不妨去 joinhampton.com 看看。
And so if you're a founder that does at least 3,000,000 a year in revenue, check out joinhampton.com.
再强调一遍，网址是 joinhampton.com。
Again, the URL is joinhampton.com.
他们做决定的时候是一起商量的吗？
Did they make a lot of the decisions together?
我其实看过一些关于他们的资料，他们的关系让我有点难理解，因为我印象中他们从来没住在一起。
I mean, I've read a little bit about them, and their relationship was a little challenging for me to understand because I don't think they've ever lived in the same place.
是的。
Yeah.
他们每天都会交流吗？
Did they talk daily?
我不清楚他们具体怎么做决定，但我感觉沃伦会把查理当参谋，用来验证逻辑。
I don't know exactly how they made their decisions, but I think I think Warren used Charlie as a sounding board, a logic checker.
你懂的。
You know?
我觉得这样安排挺合理的，诸如此类吧。
I think this this makes sense, that kind of thing.
当然，查理了不起的地方在于，沃伦·巴菲特过去常做一种我们叫‘烟头投资’的事。
Of course, Charlie's great credit is that Warren Buffett used to engage in what we call cigar butt investing.
我不知道你有没有听说过这种做法。
I don't know if you know about this.
所谓烟头投资，就是你走在街上，低头看到地上有个被人丢掉的烟头，捡起来一算，还剩三口能抽。
But cigar butt investing means you're walking down the street, and you look in the gutter, and you see a used cigar, and you pick it up, and you conclude that it has three puffs left.
于是你就把它捡起来。
So you pick it up.
听起来挺恶心的，对吧？
It's a disgusting thought.
但你还是捡起来抽了，白得三口烟。
You pick it up, and you smoke it, and you get three puffs for free.
这就是烟头投资。
That's the garb utt investing.
沃伦会买那些没人要的烂公司，就因为价格便宜。
Warren would buy, you know, really cats and dogs because they were cheap.
查理最大的贡献，就是劝沃伦别再买那些廉价的烂公司，别再捡烟头了。
And Charlie's great contribution was talking Warren out of cats and dogs, out of cigar butts.
他的变革在于，让沃伦明白：别只挑价格便宜的公司，要买价格合理的优秀公司。
And his revolution was that he convinced Warren not any company at a great price, great companies at a good price.
大多数人认为，这才是查理最了不起的贡献。
Most people credit that as Charlie's greatest contribution.
彼此互补、相互尊重、充满信任，技能完美配合。
Synergistic, mutual respect, love, complementary skills.
有意思的是，他们可能是历史上智商总和最高的搭档，但他们的智商类型完全不同。
Interestingly, they probably had the highest combined IQ of any partnership in history, but they were different kinds of IQ.
查理更像一位古典学者、人文主义者，饱读诗书。
Charlie was more of a classicist and humanist and a man of letters.
而沃伦，当然是一位非凡的
And Warren, of course, was an incredible
计算机器。
computing machine.
一位博学之人啊，Shaan。
A man of letters, Shaan.
我们得把这种风气重新带回来。
We need to bring that back.
这听起来真美。
That sounds beautiful.
确实很美。
It was beautiful.
我们聚在一起的时候，他很少谈投资、钱或者公司，多半不是这些。
When we would get together, he wouldn't talk about investments or money or companies, mostly.
他谈的是思想。
He would talk about ideas.
那我们最后再快速推荐一个吧，给点作业。
Well, let's wrap it with one last quick one, which is give us some homework.
推荐一本改变你思维方式、或者让你接触到重要思想的书。
Give us a book that shaped the way you think or you thought brought some good ideas to the forefront.
Howard Marks 推荐我们读哪本书？
What's a book we should read as recommended by Howard Marks?
有一本叫《金融狂热简史》，作者是约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯。
So one is A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Colbraith.
这本书对我的思维方式影响很大，它让我明白，正是心理上的弱点才导致了繁荣与崩溃的循环。
This was very influential in my thinking, and it teaches you about the mental weakness that gives rise to booms and busts.
当然，客观看待经济周期，这一直是我工作的核心部分。
And of course, you know, taking an objective view of cycles is a big part of what I do.
这本书对我影响很深，我很幸运能有机会见到加尔布雷斯。
So that was very influential, and I was lucky to get to meet Kalbraith.
另一本是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的《随机漫步的傻瓜》。
And then the other book would be Fooled by Randomness, by NASA Nicholas Taleb.
我一直相信，生活中很多事其实都是随机的，这也解释了为什么我做事不太喜欢下绝对的判断。
And it talks about, see, I'm a great believer that a lot in life is random, and so this is one of the reasons maybe it's my rationale for not being such a decisive thinker.
塔勒布的意思是，短期内，因为随机性，什么事都可能发生。
Taleb basically says, in the short run, anything can happen because of Randomness.
这决定了我们对风险的看法、对投资组合的构建方式，以及对业绩记录的态度。
And this determines our attitude toward risk, our attitude toward portfolio construction, our attitude toward published records.
你明白吗？
You know?
你看到一份公开的业绩记录。
You see a published record.
那家伙那一年的回报率很高。
The guy had a great return that year.
他真是个厉害的投资者吗？
Is he a great investor?
还是说他那年只是运气好？
Did he get lucky that year?
诸如此类的问题。
Etcetera.
所以我觉得《随机骗局》真的很有启发，我也写过几篇备忘录，如果有人想了解我们以前说的‘经典漫画版’解读的话。
And I so I think that I think that Fooled by Randomness is really, and I've written some memos if anybody wants to do what we used to call the classic comic version.
他们可以直接看备忘录，不用把整本书都读完。
They can read the memos rather than reading the whole book.
但我认为这非常有价值，我强烈推荐。
But I think it's very valuable, and I would recommend it strongly.
我们真的很感谢你。
Well, we appreciate you, man.
这挺有意思的。
This is fun.
希望如此。
I hope so.
我们真该跟你儿子做一期。
We gotta do one with your son, actually.
那一定会特别有趣。
That would be a lot of fun.
其实我们在2021年1月做过一期，叫《有价值的东西》，因为他在疫情期间搬进了工业区，我觉得三代马克思主义者住在一起，这个机会特别有意义，我们大部分时间都在争论价值投资。
Well, we did one in January '21 called something of value because, he moved to an industrial in the pandemic, and I thought that the the opportunity to for three generation of Marxists to live together was a great was of great value, and we spent most of the time arguing about value investing.
我觉得，除了最新的那个AI备忘录，这个反响最好。
And and and I think that I think with the possible exception of the latest AI memo, I think that one got the most positive reception.
不过我们还会继续合作，你们根本不需要找什么理由再办一次。
But but we'll we'll we'll keep working together, and, you guys don't don't need an excuse for another session.
谢谢。
Thanks.
谢谢你今天当我们的心理顾问。
Well, thank you for playing therapist for us.
好的。
Okay.
非常感谢你，霍华德。
Thank you so much, Howard.
就这些了。
That's it.
这期播客到此结束。
That's the pod.
我感觉自己能掌控整个世界。
I feel like I can rule the world.
好的。
Alright.
咱们先歇一会儿，聊个播客。
Let's take a quick break to talk about a podcast.
既然你在听这个，说明你喜欢播客。
Because if you're listening to this, you like podcasts.
还有什么比一个播客更棒的呢？
And what's better than one podcast?
另一个播客。
Another podcast.
我跟你们说，有个特别值得听的播客，叫《Success Story》。
And let me tell you, another podcast you should check out, it's called Success Story.
如果你喜欢听各种成功故事，想了解成功企业家的问答环节，或者想听主题演讲、探讨销售、商业和营销策略，这个播客绝对适合你。
If you like hearing about different success stories and hearing Q and A sessions with successful business leaders or hearing keynote presentations or just checking out conversations about sales and business and marketing tactics, this is a great podcast for you.
你可以在任何听播客的地方找到它。
So check it out wherever you get your podcasts.
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