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好了，沙恩。
Alright, Shaan.
我有个研究能说明，你赚多少钱几乎完全不由你自己掌控，除非你照我说的去做。
I have a study that's gonna show why the amount of money that you make is almost entirely out of your control unless you do what I tell you to do.
这样的开场怎么样？
How's that for an opener?
感觉就像个深夜广告，专门想洗脑让我相信什么。
I feel like it is like a late night infomercial that just, like, is about brainwash me into something.
我挺感兴趣的。
I'm intrigued.
接着说吧。
Go on.
你什么意思？
What do mean?
你说这跟我没关系，是什么意思？
What do mean it's out of my control?
没什么是我控制不了的。
Nothing's out of my control.
这跟你能不能长到七英尺高一样，根本不是你能说了算的。
It's about as out of control as it is your ability to control if you're seven foot tall or not.
好吧。
So Okay.
我得提一下吉姆·奥肖内西。
I got up to give a shout out to Jim O'Shaughnessy.
我看过一段视频，他无意中引出了这个话题。
I saw a clip where he kinda, like, brought me to this topic.
他提到过我待会儿要讲的那项研究。
He talked about the study that I'm gonna reference.
2014年，瑞典有一位叫海因里希的研究员。
So in 2014, there was a researcher in Sweden named Heinrich.
瑞典人特别痴迷两件事：双胞胎和钱。
Interesting things about the Swedes is that they are obsessed with two things, twins and money.
所以瑞典有一个庞大的双胞胎数据库，记录了成千上万，甚至上亿对双胞胎的信息。
So Sweden has this massive twin database where they have many, many, like hundreds of thousands, hundreds of millions of twins that they've documented.
但不知为什么，他们就是一直在追踪双胞胎。
And for some reason, you're they track twins.
我猜最初是为了健康研究，想看看什么样的双胞胎更容易得病，双胞胎之间
I think originally they did it for health reasons where they wanted to track, like, what type of twins got diseases Twins are
是非常理想的研究对象。
great studies.
对吧？
Right?
因为基因背景相同，所以研究重点就集中在后天环境的影响上。
Because nature's controlled, so it's all about nurture.
没错。
Yes.
他们把这个庞大的数据库细分为异卵双胞胎和同卵双胞胎，前者是同一时间出生但长相不同，后者则是完全一样的。
And so they have this, like, massive database, and they were able to break the database down into fraternal twins, which are twins that are born at the same time but don't look alike, and identical twins.
他们对钱也特别着迷。
They're also obsessed with money.
他们非常喜欢钱。
They love money.
尤其是政府，对钱格外看重。
And in particular, the government loves money.
直到2007年，他们还征收财富税。
Up until 2007, they had a wealth tax.
作为财富税的一部分，瑞典几乎追踪了每个公民的全部资产组合。
And as part of the wealth tax, Sweden basically tracked every citizen's entire financial portfolio.
他们记录你持有的股票、基金，还有每一笔储蓄。
So they looked at which stocks you owned, the mutual funds that you owned, every dollar of savings.
这些信息他们全都有记录。
They basically tracked all of this stuff.
有意思的是，有个人叫海因里希，他提出了一个想法：投资和储蓄行为到底有多少是受基因影响的？
And so what was interesting is that this guy named Heinrich, he went he had this premise, this idea where he was like, how much of investing in savings behavior is controlled by genetics?
所以他比较了异卵双胞胎和同卵双胞胎的差异，毕竟双胞胎是在同一个环境中长大的。
And so he looked at the differences between fraternal twins and identical twins because presumably twins grew up in the same environment.
在很多情况下，他们的教育水平也一样。
In many cases, they have the same education levels.
父母对他们的教育方式也差不多。
Their parents spoke to them the same way.
得到的关爱也相差无几，诸如此类。
They were loved to similar amounts, whatever.
然后他研究了只共享50%基因的异卵双胞胎，和共享100%基因的同卵双胞胎，在投资和储蓄行为上有什么不同。
And then he looked at, well, how do the fraternal twins who only share 50% of genetics, how do they invest and save compared to the identical twins who have share 100% of DNA?
他把这些行为归纳为六种倾向。
And he broke it up into six biases.
比如有些人股票持得太少，交易过于频繁，喜欢追涨，也就是买前一年表现好的股票；还有本土偏好，就是过度投资本国资产；喜欢买像彩票一样的股票；以及处置效应，也就是死活不肯割肉止损。
So people who held too few stocks, excess turnover, people who traded a lot, performance chasing, so people who bought whatever bought that did well the year before, overinvesting in your home country called home bias, loving lottery type stocks, and then the disposition effect, which is refusing to sell losers.
他分析了所有这些数据，我记得他研究了大约三万名双胞胎。
And he looked at all of this data, and I think he looked at it over the course of 30,000 such as twins.
此外，他还研究了一些极端案例。
Additionally, he looked at outliers.
比如那些出生后就被分开抚养的双胞胎，还有一些类似的情况。
So like for example, twins that were separated at birth and a couple of stuff like that.
他发现并得出结论：45%的储蓄和投资行为模式是由基因决定的，这让我觉得非常惊人。
And the results that he found was basically and concluded was that 45% of savings and investing patterns of behaviors was genetic, which I find to be astounding.
我之所以想到这个，是因为你和我，虽然我们俩投资的方式不一样，但都算不上专业投资者。
And the reason I was thinking about this was you and I, I would not I think we both in we both in different ways like investing, but we are not, I would say, professional investors.
然而
And yet
我的投资组合也会表明我不是专业投资者。
My portfolio would also say I'm not a professional investor.
可我们俩都特别喜欢在播客里请专业投资者来做客。
And yet, we love having professional investors on the podcast.
我们都特别爱读关于沃伦·巴菲特这类人的故事。
We both love reading about Warren Buffett and people like that.
我当时在琢磨两件事。
And I was trying to figure out two things.
第一件是，我为啥这么喜欢这些人的故事？
The first is why do I like that so much?
我到底被他们哪儿吸引住了？
What what am I drawn to these guys for so much?
还有，几期之前我们聊过热情，以及怎么找到自己真正该做的事。
And the second thing was a couple podcasts ago, we talked about passion and how to figure out what you're kind of supposed to be doing.
我当时就想找点更科学的依据，来解释我为啥要做眼下这份工作。
And I was trying to look for a more scientific reason about why I should do what I do.
先说第一个问题：我们为啥这么推崇这些投资者？
To address the first one of why do we like these investors so much?
我想我明白了，要成为顶尖投资者，金融知识其实没那么重要，真正关键的是人性。
Well, I think I realized that in order to be a world class investor, finances are actually secondary to human nature.
金融趋势每十年、每几十年就会变一次。
Financial trends change every decade, every handful of decades.
总会有新东西冒出来，比如最近挺火的SPACs。
Something will some new thing will pop up, you know, SPACs are this new thing.
了解这些确实挺重要，但这类东西隔一阵子就换一拨。
So like learning about that is important, but that changes every so often.
真正不变的，是几千年来人类的本性。
But what doesn't change is thousands and thousands of years of human nature.
理解人的行为，琢磨他们为什么这么做，比钻研金融知识重要得多。
And understanding how humans behave and asking yourself, why do they do what they do is significantly more important than the financial stuff.
在这档节目里，我们花了大量时间采访了当今最顶尖的一些投资者。
On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive.
幸运的是，HubSpot的团队把其中最关键的原则提炼出来，整理成了一份简单易懂的财富指南。
Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easy to read wealth guide.
里面汇集了三十条来自顶级投资者的建议。
It's 35 principles from the top investors.
我们聊过的那些人，比如霍华德·马克斯、曼ish Parr Bray、摩根·豪塞尔、凯西·伍德，还有好多其他大牛。
We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard Marks, Manish Parr Bray, Morgan Housel, Kathy Wood, and a ton others.
这些都是他们的思维框架、心理模型和准则，本质上是如何着眼长远、避免失败。
So these are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules, basically how to play the long game and how to avoid ruin.
你可以在下面的链接获取。
You can get it in the link below.
Monish Parr 有个特别精彩的故事。
There's this great story from Monish Parr.
听过这个播客的听众应该知道，Monish 曾经两次来做客。
So people who've been listening to this podcast, you've probably seen that Monish came on the podcast twice.
我觉得他那两期节目是《我的第一百万》历史上观看次数最多的。
I think his two episodes are the most viewed episodes in the history of My First Million.
他可以说是咱们节目的常驻嘉宾了。
So he's been this kind of hall of fame guest for us.
在访谈里，你可能还记得，他说过一件事，当时他正在经营一家公司。
And in the interview, I don't know if you remember this, but he said this thing where he was running a company.
他是个创业者。
He was an entrepreneur.
他当时在经营一家公司，虽然算不上特别成功，但也算是小有成就。
And he was running this company, and it wasn't super, super successful, but it was, like, moderately successful.
我记得年营收大概在六百万美元左右，差不多这个数。
I think it was, like, like, a $6,000,000 a year revenue business or something like that.
不过说实话，他其实挺不喜欢那份工作的。
Now he did this he but he was he wasn't loving it.
他当时还以为这只是创业者常见的职业倦怠期。
He just assumed this was a normal entrepreneurial burnout.
你知道吗，我工作真的很努力。
You know, I'm working really hard.
我做这行已经很久了。
I've been doing this for a long time.
这活儿真不容易。
This shit's hard.
我大概能体会到大多数创始人的感受。
I probably feel how most founders feel.
但他被建议做一次特别全面的性格测试，他们会跟你聊，跟你的同事聊，跟你父母聊，跟生活中所有相关的人聊，全方位地了解你。
But he was encouraged to do a, like, a very fancy version of a personality test, where they talk to you, they talk to your coworkers, they talk to your parents, they talk to everybody in your life, this sort of three sixty, and they try to understand, like, a little bit more about you.
测试结果出来后，他们说：你在这里感到痛苦，其实一点都不意外。
The result came back, and they were like, you know, it's no surprise that you're miserable here.
这份工作跟你的人格类型完全不匹配。
This is a game that is completely incompatible for your personality type.
他问：这话什么意思？
And he goes, what do you mean?
他们说：你喜欢那种单人竞技类的数字游戏，具体术语我记不清了，但大体是这个意思。
And they go, you like and I forgot the exact descriptor, but it was something like, you like solo player competitive number games.
他愣住了：什么？
And he's like, what?
他们说：没错。
And they're like, yeah.
我们再重复一遍。
Let's say that again.
你喜欢一个人玩，不是团队运动那种。
You like one person, so you by yourself, not team sports.
你偏爱单人竞技、以数字为核心的玩法。
You like solo player, competitive, number based games.
就是那种特别多数学或者数字元素的东西。
It's like things that had a lot of, like, a math or or number thing to it.
可你呢，却在经营一家公司。
And here you were, you were running this company.
现在你却在玩这种多人、竞技、跟数字没关系的游戏。
So now you're playing this multiplayer, competitive, non numbers based game.
于是他只好说，好吧。
And so he he was like, okay.
我不知道该怎么处理这个情况。
I don't know what to do with this.
他决定私下开始做投资。
And he decided to start investing on the side.
事实上，就像他一生中一贯的做法一样，他作为独立投资者，在股票市场这种竞争性强、跟数字相关的游戏中，表现得比做其他任何事都要出色得多。
And basically, it turns out that as he's as he's done in his life, he did way better as an investor, as a solo investor, playing a competitive money numbers based game, which was the stock market, than he ever did, doing this other thing.
他非常推崇‘了解自己’这种理念——你得清楚自己是谁，天生对什么感兴趣、容易着迷，然后去找到那些契合你的游戏。
He he really encouraged this sort of know thyself thing, which is like, you have to know who you are and what you are, like, predisposed to love and obsess over, and then find yourself in those types of games.
我再给你举个别的例子吧。
And he so I'll give you another example with that.
我那时候，他跟我讲，自己因为赢钱太多，被好几个赌场赶了出来。
When I was there, he was like he was telling me about how you've been kicked out of these casinos because he was winning too much money.
我说：‘你是在算牌吧？’
I was like, you were card counting.
他回答：‘没有。’
He's like, no.
真没算牌。
Wasn't card counting.
老兄，你当时光着膀子满场跑呢。
Dude, you were running around without your shirt on.
我知道那个
Like, I I know the
那根本不是赌场。
That's not a casino.
那是玛格丽特维尔。
That was Margaritaville.
他当时跟我说了，不过是在镜头外面。
And so he was like, he he and he off camera.
他不肯在镜头前告诉我。
He wouldn't tell me on camera.
镜头外他跟我讲了，还给我看了他用的具体方法。
Off camera, he told me he showed me the exact system that he used.
后来我有几个朋友去那些赌场，照他那种方式玩，结果真让他找到了赢面。
And then my life I've had, like, friends go and use this system in at these specific casinos, play this specific way, and it was he had actually found an edge.
他说，真正让他着迷的，是能赢过庄家的那种智力上的成就感。
He's like he's like, just the intellectual thrill of actually being able to beat the house.
这种感觉别的地方根本找不到。
There's nothing like it.
从财务角度来说，花几千个小时去研究这个根本不划算，但我就是喜欢这种单人竞技、靠数字取胜的游戏。
You know, financially, this is not a good decision to spend thousands of hours figuring this out, but I just like those single player competitive number based games.
慈善这件事也是一样。
And same thing with philanthropy.
他说，我刚接触慈善的时候，还以为能赚钱呢。
He's like, when I got into philanthropy, oh, you make money.
结果发现，真正难的是怎么把钱花出去。
They gotta figure out how to give it away.
我该不该去参加那些晚宴，穿得体体面面，捐点钱，顺便社交一下？
And it's should I be going to these galas and dressing up and donating to these causes and socializing?
其实慈善圈里有一整套社交圈层文化。
And it's like, there's a whole socialite scene with philanthropy.
他后来发现，真正让他满足的，还是那种单人竞技、靠数字驱动的玩法——对他来说，慈善最有趣的部分，就是想办法让每一块钱都产生最大的社会回报。
And what he figured out was the version that was fulfilling to him was, again, a single player competitive numbers based game where he realized the fun part of philanthropy for him was figuring out how to make $1 that he puts in have the highest economic return in terms of impact anywhere.
后来他发现，印度其实有很多孩子特别聪明，但根本没人给他们提供受教育的机会。
So what he figured out was there were kids in India who were really smart that had no schooling.
印度人口基数本来就大，你知道的，得有十亿多。
Like, India's got a bit, you know, over a billion people.
印度农村有很多特别聪明的人，但既没条件接受好的教育，也找不到改变命运的路子。
So a lot of people just live in rural India that are very intelligent but have no access to good education or a pathway to to better their lives.
最后多半只能去种地了。
They're just gonna end up on a farm.
他后来发现，如果每年花33美元就能找到那些聪明的孩子，他就能把他们送进竞争激烈的学校。
And what he realized was that if he could identify the smart kids for, $33 a year, he could put them in, a competitive school.
于是他们创办了这些数学竞赛学校，帮这些孩子考进了印度理工学院。
So they started these competitive math schools, they got them into IIT.
而印度理工学院就像是一个输送系统，能把人送到全世界最好的工作岗位上。
And IIT is this feeder system to, like, the best jobs in the world.
他们还能拿到签证去国外工作。
And they can go get visas.
只要花33美元，他就能把一个家庭的年收入从一万块提升到五万块。
And basically for $33, he can up the that family's earning power from 10,000 a year to 50,000 a year.
也就是说，花三千美元一次性投入一年的培训，就能让收入翻五倍，每年多出五万块。
So he could 5x and create like, you know, 50,000 per year for a one time $3,000 one year, like, acceleration in training.
他的录取率是多少呢？要知道，普通考进印度理工学院的难度比哈佛、斯坦福还高。
And his, like, admittance rate, know, the normal IIT is harder to get into than Harvard, than Stanford.
比任何美国大学都难考。
Harder to get into than any US college.
所以通常的录取率是多少，你就想象一下吧。
So it's like whatever point whatever percent admissions rate typically.
我觉得他的录取率大概有8%，已经高得离谱了。
And I think his is like 8% or something crazy.
这录取率差不多是普通水平的十倍。
Like, you know, like a 10 x larger admittance rate.
但即便如此，这也不是一个人单打独斗就能做到的。
So even that wasn't a single player game or whatever.
这让我开始思考一个问题：你到底要多了解自己，才能知道哪些事该参与、哪些事该避开，这其实和你刚才说的有点关系。
And it really got me thinking about this idea of how do you know yourself enough to know what game you should and shouldn't be playing, which is kind of a spin off of what you're talking about.
对吧？
Right?
你
You're
这其实是第一步。
Well, that's like step one.
没错。
Yeah.
我以前还有一位导师。
I had another kind of mentor.
就是那位詹姆斯·库尔捷。
This guy, James Courier.
他上周也跟我讲了同样的话。
He told me the same thing last week.
他说，真希望小时候有人能告诉我，我到底是个什么样的人。
He goes, I wish somebody earlier in life had told me who I really was.
我问，什么？
I go, what?
我当时根本不懂他什么意思。
He's like, I didn't know what he meant.
这时候其实有好多可能的解读。
This could go a lot of ways right here.
你接下来想说什么？
What are you about to say?
他说，我从小到大一直打足球，都是竞技级别的。
And he was like, you know, I played soccer my whole life competitively.
但我后来才明白，其实我对踢足球并不敏感，反而在拍类运动上特别有天赋。
And what I realized is like, you know, I was actually not very attuned to playing soccer, but I was actually really good at racket sports.
我手臂长，手眼协调好，早该去打壁球才对。
I had long wingspan, good hand eye coordination, and I should have been playing racquetball early on.
他说，我职业生涯也碰上了同样的事。
He goes, the same thing happened to my career.
你知道吗，我那时候干的都是这类生意，可我本该做的是另一类事情。
You know, I was doing these types of businesses when I really should have been doing this type of thing.
这让我想到，天啊， probably 有几十亿人一辈子都没发现自己真正擅长的是什么，也没去投身那个领域，结果人生就这么错过了。
It got me wondering, wow, there's probably billions of people walking around who never discovered what game they're actually great at and never got into that game and therefore, like, kind of life passed them by.
这难道不是一种悲剧吗？
Isn't that sort of a a tragedy?
是啊。
Yeah.
说实话，我从不替别人着想。
Well, like, I don't selfishly, I don't think about other people.
我只关心自己，只想专注最重要的事。
I just think about myself where I'm like where I'm like Just focus on the more important bit.
我。
Me.
但是
But
可每个人不都是这么想的吗？
that's but that's what everyone thinks.
你知道的。
You know?
他们会觉得，好吧。
They think, like, okay.
但这跟我有什么关系呢？
But how does this apply to me?
我记得安德鲁·威尔金森跟我提起过那个自我评估工具，我特别喜欢。
And I think it was Andrew Wilkinson who told me about that self assessment thing, which I really dig.
你做过吗？
Did you do it?
那简直太棒了。
It was awesome.
你有没有过，青春期的时候刚开始认识自己，突然对某些事产生好奇？
What's like the when you're like a teen and you're like discovering yourself, you get a little curious?
我觉得我们俩都有点那样。
I think we're both a little Yeah.
我就是有点好奇。
My curious.
就在这儿。
Here.
对。
Yeah.
我现在就有点好奇。
I'm a little my curious right now.
那咱们俩可真是凑一块儿了。
Well, there's two of us.
所以咱们是双性好奇。
Therefore, we are bi curious.
所以
So
那你觉得你会选哪个啊？我根本不知道都有什么选项。
so what game do you think you would be I don't even know what the options are.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得我不像是那种单人、竞技、靠数字排名的游戏类型。
Like, I don't think I'm single player competitive numbers based game.
那不是我。
That's not me.
但我连菜单长啥样都不知道。
But I don't even know what the menu looks like.
那你觉得你属于哪一种？
So so what do you think yours is?
在查呢。
Researching.
我觉得我会选一个全新的主题，深入钻研，死磕一个话题，努力得出个结论。
I I think it'd be, like, a a new topic and going super deep and obsessing over one topic and coming to a trying to trying to come to a conclusion.
对。
Right.
那自然就是去负责汉普顿了。
So naturally, go run Hampton.
是的。
Yeah.
你描述的就像是一个人孤零零地坐在沙发上，捧着本书，静静思考，真正找到属于自己的乐趣，你在这方面最在行。
You're describing, like, sitting alone on a couch with a book and thinking and really look like, finding your joy, you're you're being the best at that.
然后你却说，我要去办公室里，和五十个人一起工作，然后去管汉普顿。
And then you're like, so I'm gonna go sit in an office with 50 other people and I run a
幸好我的联合创始人乔是CEO。
thank God my my cofounder, Joe, is the CEO.
所以他负责汉普顿，但每当我们准备推出新东西的时候，我就进入我的强项了——研究别人是怎么做类似事情的，他们哪里失败了，又在哪里赢了。
So he runs Hampton, but it's when we, like, are gearing up to launch something new, like, I'm in my zone of genius when I'm, like, researching how others have done something similar to us and where they failed them when they won.
然后去找专家，想办法混进那些有经验的人的对话里，直接问他们：我接下来会犯哪些错？
And then going talking to experts and weaseling my way into conversations of people who have been there, done that, and being like, tell me tell me, like, the mistakes that I'm going to make.
我就直说了。
I just tell you.
我觉得你和我在这方面还挺像的。
I think you and I are both similar in this weird way.
我一直以为这很正常，直到有人提醒我，这其实并不常见。
I I thought this was completely normal until somebody pointed out that, hey, that's probably not super common.
我之前跟一个图书策划人聊过。
I was talking to this guy who's a a book developer.
他做过一件事，就是以代笔身份为一些聪明、成功又出名的人写过几本畅销书。
One thing this one of the things this guy has done is he's written some of the most popular books as a ghost writer for smart, successful, famous people.
明白了。
Okay.
不错。
Great.
所以我跟他聊，他说，好吧。
So I'm talking to him, and he's like, okay.
那你书的构想是什么？
So what's your book idea?
我就跟他说了我的想法，这几年里我们断断续续聊了好几次。
And I'm telling him my book idea, and I I talked to him a couple of times over the over a couple of years.
所以他见过我提过好几个不同的书的点子。
And so he had seen me talking about a couple of different book ideas.
他说，要不这个先放一放，以后再说。
And he goes, you know, maybe we save this for later.
他还说，我觉得你最特别的地方是——然后他停顿了一下。
He goes, but I think the most interesting about you is and I'm like he pauses.
这让我特别感兴趣，因为他的工作就是跟特别聪明的人待在一起，听他们聊上好几个小时。
And this is very interesting to me because this guy's job is to spend time with really smart people, and he lets them talk for hours and hours and hours.
然后他会说，哦，真正关键的故事其实是这个。
And then he's like, oh, the real story here is x.
他们就说：‘真的吗？’
And they're like, really?
就是这个？
That?
他回答：是的。
And he's like, yeah.
这正是这件事最有趣的地方，也是他的天赋所在。
That's the that's the most interesting part about this, and that's his gift.
他说，你最特别的地方在于，你有一种奇怪的倾向，喜欢逆向分析企业或者逆向思考。
So he goes, the most interesting part about you is you have some weird predilection for reverse engineering businesses or reverse engineering.
他说，你做的每一件事，第一反应都是先逆向推演。
He goes, everything you do, you seem to reverse engineer as a first, like, as a first instinct.
但大多数人，我觉得并不会这样。
Whereas most people, I don't think do that.
他说，不管是生活中的什么事，比如家庭方面，你也一样。
And he's like, whether it's like something in life, you know, it could be family oriented.
你之前跟我提过这事。
You told me this.
也可能是创意方面。
It could be creatively this.
也可能是投资。
It could be investment.
萨姆，你也一样，我们想做点什么的时候，第一反应就是——
And Sam, you're the same way where it's like, I think our first instinct when we wanna do something is like, alright.
先去查查历史上别人是怎么做的。
Let me go study in history how other people have done this.
去问问那些已经做过的人，然后根据他们分享的经验来反向推演。
Let me go talk to the other people who have already done this, and I'm gonna reverse engineer based on the principles that they tell me.
我知道哪些话可以忽略。
I know what to ignore of what they're gonna say.
我知道该重点关注什么。
I know what to focus in on.
我会自己建立一套方法和理解，然后就这么去做。
I'm gonna create my own system and my own understanding, and then I'll just do that.
我觉得我们俩都习惯这样做事，而且也最喜欢这种方式。
And I think we both do that as our default mode, and it's what we enjoy doing.
但我觉得这并不常见。
And I don't think that that's common.
举个例子吧。
And here's an example.
每次我们请嘉宾上节目，他们来寻求建议时，我们从不会直接说‘你应该去拿风投’或者‘你应该这么做’。
Whenever we have someone on the podcast and they explain they'll ask for advice or something like that, instead of saying like, well, you should probably raise venture capital or you should you should probably do this.
我们第一个问题总是：‘你五年后的成功是什么样子？’
The first question is always like, well, how would you define success in five years?
就是，你到底想怎么定义成功？
Like, what like what what
从结果倒推。
what Work backwards.
是的
Yeah.
对你来说，成功怎么定义？
Like, what's the definition of success to you?
然后我们再一起定出这个游戏的规则。
And then let's figure out what the rules will be to the game.
这样我们才能给出有针对性的建议。
Then we will can can give feedback.
我之所以一直对这个特别着迷，是因为在我公司里，只要一出问题——这几乎天天都有，每当这时候我就觉得
But the reason why I've been always obsessed with this is I've noticed in my company, the times that I have issues, which is all the time, the times that I have
问题无时无刻不在。
issues Every waking breath.
对。
Yeah.
我每天一搞砸什么事，就立刻想：得改公司了。
Every time I screw something up every day, I I'm like, I have to change the business.
我得换人。
I have to change the people.
我得改变所有这些外部因素。
I have to change all of these external things.
但事实是，这正是我如此喜欢资本主义的原因——你所掌控的公司，只要你真在掌控，它其实就是你个性的延伸。
But the reality is, and this is why I think I like capitalism so much, is that the business that you're controlling, if you are controlling, it's just an extension of your personality.
如果你不信任别人，你的同事很可能觉得你在事事插手。
So if you have trust issues, then your coworkers are probably gonna think that you're micromanaging them.
如果你难以做出承诺，他们就会觉得你心不在焉。
If you have trouble committing, then they're gonna think that you're absent minded.
公司里出现的问题，其实就是你个人问题的反映，反过来也一样。
The issues that you have in the company, they are an extension of the issues that you have, and vice versa.
如果你是个善良的人，我想你的公司文化也会很温和。
If you are a kind person, you're gonna have a kind culture, I think.
我觉得，投资习惯其实就是人性习惯的体现。
And I think that what investing habits are, are just human nature habits.
所以投资才这么有意思。
And that's why investing is really interesting.
尽管这项研究是关于金融的，但其实道理完全一样。
And so even though this study was related to finance, it's the exact same thing.
如果你经常频繁买卖股票——这是六种偏见之一——那可能你在人际关系上也很难稳定下来。
So if you tend to have excessive turnover with your stocks, which is one of the six biases, then perhaps you struggle having steady relationships.
如果你特别倾向于投资本国股票，也就是所谓的‘本土偏好’，那你从家乡搬出来的可能性其实很低。
If you tend to overinvest in like stocks in your home country, which they call a home bias, the likelihood that you have moved from your hometown is actually quite low.
我发现要改变这些问题，光靠读书是远远不够的。
And so what I have found is that the best ways to make change in these issues, for one, it's not just reading.
所以我写下这句话：改变需要痛苦，而不是空谈。
And so I wrote down this line, which was that change requires pain, not words.
因为根据研究，当他们控制了教育水平，也就是比较两个都拥有商科学位的人时。
Because according to the study, what they found is once they normalize for education, meaning they took two people who both had business degrees.
就算第二个人读了很多商业书籍，也不一定就能成为更优秀的投资者。
If that's if person number two went and read a bunch of business books, they wouldn't necessarily be a better investor.
他们发现，除了基因之外，唯一能带来真正改变的是那些从事金融工作的人。
What they found was that the only thing that made a meaningful difference other than genetics was people who worked in finance.
也就是说，你必须亲身经历一次亏损。
Meaning, you have to ex like, you have to experience a loss.
比如，我之前这么做过。
Like, oh, I I did this.
我栽了跟头。
I got burnt.
我再也不敢把手伸到那儿去了，而不是光看别人怎么被烫伤。
I can't put my hand there again versus just constantly reading about burning your hand.
你还是会把手烫着。
You'll still burn your hand.
对。
Right.
就连《思考，快与慢》这本书里，作者自己也说，他写的是关于偏见的书，但自己也深受这些偏见的影响。
Even in the book, Thinking Fast and Slow, he even says, he's like, I'm writing a book on biases, but I suffer from all these same things.
我得一直提醒自己注意这一点。
And I and I have to work on this all the time.
所以我总结了四种方法，可以帮你避免这种情况。
And so the best way I think or the the I wrote down like four ways that you could like prevent this.
但其中最重要的一点，是沃伦·巴菲特说过的话。
But one of the biggest ways to harness this is what Warren Warren Buffett said.
他直接说了，我们只投资自己最擅长的领域。
He just said, actually, again, we invest in our zone of genius.
沃伦·巴菲特这个人，性格稳重，做事慢而扎实。
And what that means is Warren Buffett is a slow and steady type of guy.
所以他投的都是那种稳扎稳打的项目，这也完全能解释他为什么排斥比特币——如果他现在十八九岁，大概也不会去搞一个靠风投堆起来的AI创业公司。
So he invests in slow and steady types of types of things, which would entirely explain why he's adverse to Bitcoin, which would entirely explain that if he were a type of if he were 18 or 25 nowadays, he probably would not consider having an AI startup that raised lots and lots of VC.
做那种事的人，通常都想要更快的成就感，可能更在意名声，所以你得根据自己的性格来调整做事的方式。
The people who do that tend to be the ones who want dopamine a lot faster, who maybe care about glory, and you have to optimize the thing that you're working on for the personality that you have.
另外几种避免这个问题的方法，我觉得就是要提前做决定，别让未来的自己替你做主。
But the other ways that you get rid of this, I think, is that you have to pre commit so the future doesn't decide.
别饿着肚子去超市。
Basically, don't go to a grocery store hungry.
做决定的时候，把它写下来。
So, like, when you make a decision, you write it down.
如果雇了一个人，三个月后他没达到这些要求，我就辞了他。
Like, if I'm gonna I'm gonna fire this person in month three after hiring them if they don't hit these requirements.
他到底达没达到要求？
Did they or did they not hit the requirements?
定了就得坚持。
You stick to it.
别因为你怕冲突就心软。
Not if you're, like, predisposed to, like, you know, not, like, confrontation.
再一个办法是缩短反馈周期，让你能快速看到进度，及时获取新信息。
Another one would be to shorten the feedback loop so you're able to, like, see points of the scoreboard very fast and get new information quick.
最后一点，别玩那种会让你的偏见酿成大错的游戏。
And the last one, you can't play games where your bias will be fatal.
这么说吧，我这个人有点控制欲超强。
And that sort of means, like, for me, I'm a control freak.
我属于那种慢工出细活的人。
I'm a little bit of a slow and steady type of guy.
如果要拿风投、自己还管不了事，还得拼命加速，那对我来说简直就是自寻死路。
Raising lots of VC where I'm not in control and I'm expected to go really, really, really fast, that would potentially be a fatal game for me.
那样的话，我等于一开始就注定要输。
So I'd be setting myself up to lose.
这真有意思。
That's really interesting.
我很认同你提出的两个观点。
So I I I like the the two premises you have.
第一，你在生活或工作中遇到的问题，其实都是你内心状态的反映。
One, the problems you see in your situation, whether that's your life or your work workplace, is a mirror to It's a mirror.
这些问题，恰恰映照出你心理上的症结。
The problems you have in your psychology.
你刚才说的那四五个方法，说白了就是，好吧。
And then the the then the four or five tactics you just described are like, okay.
那该怎么解决呢？
What's the remedy?
还有，你提到的那些洞见，我觉得摩根·豪塞尔的书讲的就是这个：想要在金钱和投资中致富，关键根本不在策略，而在于行为。
And and also, you know, the insights, which is, I think, Morgan Hounsel's book is this, which is basically getting wealthy through the money game and investing is far less about strategy and far more about behavior.
导致财务失败的，不是策略不好，而是你自己的行为出了问题。
And it's your own it's your own poor behavior that leads to poor financial results, not poor strategy.
他表达得比我好多了，我其实是抄了他的说法。
He says it in a much better way, which I stole from him.
我刚才把它记下来了。
I wrote it down here.
我说过，个人理财，重点在‘个人’，不在‘理财’。
I said personal finance is more personal than it is finance.
对。
Right.
是的
Yeah.
没错
Exactly.
我觉得这很棒。
So I think that's great.
而且有意思的是，你提到最好的投资者未必是读过最多书的人。
And it's also interesting because you said, like, you know, the best investors weren't necessarily the ones reading more books.
但与此同时，所有顶尖投资者都经常谈论他们正在读的书。
At the same time, all the best investors talk constantly about the books they're reading.
你说话的时候，我其实一直在想这个问题。
And I I actually thought about it while you're saying it.
这可能有点奇怪。
It might be a weird thing.
所以也许书里的知识本身并没有那么关键。
So it might not be that the knowledge in the books is super important.
投资中最大的问题之一，可能是过度操作。
It might be that one of the biggest leaks in investing is too much activity.
要解决过度操作的问题，最好的办法就是找点别的事做，比如打桥牌、读书、打匹克球，干点别的，别老坐在那儿不停地按按钮。
And the remedy for too much activity is actually to just busy yourself with bridge and books and and and playing pickleball and doing other things so that you are not prone to just sitting there and pushing buttons.
真正的问题就在于不停地按按钮。
Because it's the pushing buttons that's the problem.
所以也许读书本身读什么并不重要，关键在于它能让你远离频繁的操作，这可能才是那些顶尖投资者爱读书的真正原因。
So it might be that reading it might not even matter what you actually are reading, but just simply that it takes you away from constant activity is actually the best part of the reason why all these great investors read so much.
换个说法，如果你发现一家公司经营得不错，就像我现在的情况，我发现最该做的就是什么也不做。
Or put differently, if you found a company that's going well, which that's the situation I'm in, I've noticed the best thing that I can do is to do nothing.
因为很多时候，我一插手，事情反而搞砸了。
Because oftentimes when I meddle, it gets screwed up.
或者举个例子，假设你想在社交媒体上火起来，你发现每天发三条内容，粉丝就会增长。
Or if you like, let's say that you're trying to get popular on social media and you notice that when you post three times a day, you get growth.
那你就照着做就行。
It's like, just do that.
别做别的事。
Don't do other things.
既然这招有效，那就继续坚持下去。
Like this idea of like, it's working, just continue.
你确实需要点别的事分散注意力，好让自己有空间去犯错，但千万别搞砸了主要的事。
And that you need something else to do in order to have your playground where you're allowed to mess something up, but don't mess up the main thing.
对。
Yeah.
我刚想到一个特别好的例子。
There's a great example of this I just picked up.
巴菲特在伯克希尔的访谈里提到过这事，他说因为伯克希尔手头有大约四千亿美元的现金，过去五年一直堆在那里没动。
Buffett did an interview with the Berkshire thing, and he talked about this, which was like because Berkshire has, I think, $400,000,000,000 in cash, and it's just been piling up over the last five years.
他们就是没把这笔钱投出去。
They just haven't deployed it anywhere.
我不太明白这到底意味着什么。
I wonder what that even means.
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比如，这笔钱在哪儿呢
Like, where is
他们 basically 把这四千亿美元都存在国库券里了。
They just have $400,000,000,000 in, like, treasury bills, basically.
是国库券吗？
Is it it's treasury?
是的。
Yeah.
真惊人。
Wow.
我不禁想，这笔钱占美国国库券总量的百分之多少。
I wonder what percentage of, the US treasury that that makes up.
我觉得没那么多。
I don't think it's that much.
国库券的总量可是以万亿计的。
There's trillions in T bills.
你知道，也不是零，但肯定没超过百分之五。
You know, it's not not zero, but it's not not more than like 5%.
所以他意思是，咱们只有在真有事要做时才动手。
So he he was talking about like, well, well, you know, we we don't do anything unless there's something to do.
他当时说的就是这个意思。
And he was he was talking about this.
亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯最近接受了一个采访，他也说了类似的话。
There's an Amazon Jeff Bezos just gave this interview, and he said the same thing.
他说，亚马逊早期的时候，杰夫·威尔基有一天来找他，说：杰夫，你脑子里的想法多到足以毁掉亚马逊。
He goes, early in Amazon's history, Jeff Wilkie came to me one day and said, Jeff, you have enough ideas to destroy Amazon.
他问：啥意思？
And he goes, what?
他说：你每分钟、每天、每周冒出的想法，都多到能毁了亚马逊。
He said, you have enough ideas per minute, per day, per week to destroy Amazon.
我问他：你什么意思？
I said, do mean?
他说，你得学会以组织能接受的节奏来推进工作。
He goes, you have to figure out how to release the work at the right rate that the organization can accept it.
因为每次我抛出一个想法，都会制造出一堆待办事项、排队任务、正在进行的工作，还有各种干扰，全都堆在那里了。
Because every time I released an idea, I created a backlog, a queue, a work in process, a distraction, and it was just stacking up.
我那时候的做法，根本没带来任何价值。
It was adding no value the way I was doing it.
事实上，我反而在制造干扰。
In fact, I was creating distraction.
所以我得学会更好地筛选想法，先把它们记下来，自己先存着，等组织准备好了再拿出来。
So I had to learn how to prioritize the ideas better, keeping lists of them, keeping those on myself until the organization was ready for the ideas.
我看到这些，心里就明白了：法官大人，我认罪，因为我自己也干过同样的事。
And I saw this and I was like, oh, like, your honor, I plead guilty because, you know, have the same thing.
如果你特别擅长产生点子，那种感觉确实很棒。
If you're if you're very generative with ideas, it feels good.
而且这些点子本身，也确实可能很棒。
And and the ideas themselves might be great ideas.
这个想法本身可能非常靠谱。
It might be It might be a very sound idea.
所以你看起来没做错什么，但实际上你可能会用一堆想法把公司淹没了。
And so it seems like you're doing nothing wrong, but you can literally drown your company in ideas.
我以前没少这么干，尤其是增长团队和市场团队的时候。
And I've done this many times, especially like the growth teams or the marketing teams.
一上来就扔给你十四个市场点子，然后每天还新增两个。
It's like, here's 14 marketing ideas, and then every day, two more are coming.
接着我还会发条推文，告诉你别人在做什么，让你也去看看。
And then I'm gonna send you a tweet about something somebody else is doing that you guys should check out.
然后跟你说这个，再推荐你参加那个活动，认识那个人，试试这个新方法。
And then I'm gonna tell you this, then I'm gonna have an event you should go to, then there's this guy you should meet, and then there's this thing we should try.
可这些最后有哪个真见效了？
And then did that ever work?
我们还应该再试一次吗？
We should try that again.
我只要一下子抛出太多点子，真的能把整个团队憋死。
And I can literally suffocate an organization by releasing too many ideas into the org at once.
对吧？
Right?
这就像你刚才说的，原本是个性格问题，结果演变成了文化问题，甚至运营上的问题。
It's just, again, like you described, like, a personality defect that becomes a culture defect, a operational defect.
我大概六个月前也读过同样的这句话。
I read that same quote, I think, six months ago.
所以我和我的联合创始人乔，他是CEO，我们每周四都会开一次会，这是我们俩唯一固定的会议。
And so my cofounder Joe, who's the CEO, we set up this meeting every Thursday, and it's the only meeting that him and I have together.
每次就是一起过一遍脑子里蹦出来的点子，他总说：想到什么就说什么。
And it's just when we go through a running list of ideas, and it's a he's like, just say anything you want.
想到什么都可以讲。
We can say anything.
想聊什么都行。
Can talk about anything you want.
所以在这间屋子里，我们就随便聊聊？
And it's just in this room, we're gonna do pillow?
对。
Yeah.
想到什么都可以讲。
We'll talk about anything you want.
我觉得我们最后可能一样都不做，但也说不定。
We I don't think we're gonna do any of it, but maybe we will.
但至少咱们先把想法倒出来。
But, like, let's just we can get it out.
不过别在Slack上给我发点子啊。
And don't Slack me any ideas, though.
他就说，弄个持续更新的清单就行。
But he's like, just have a a running list.
对。
Yeah.
我们会逐一看看你提出的每一个想法，说不定真能做成点什么。
And and we'll we'll go through any idea that you want, and then maybe we'll maybe we'll do something.
好的。
Alright.
咱们先休息一下，我有个问题想问你。
Let's take a quick break, and I got a question for you.
当买家向AI寻求像你这样的解决方案时，你的公司会出现在结果里吗？
When a buyer asks AI for a solution like yours, does your business come up?
大多数公司根本不知道这事。
Most companies have no idea.
等他们反应过来，早就被别的公司抢走了单子。
By the time they found out, they've already lost the deal to another company that did.
HubSpot有个AEO功能，能在潜在买家寻找类似你这样的公司时，让你及时出现。
HubSpot has AEO, which helps you show up in the moments when the right buyers are looking for a company like yours.
在他们点击之前、填写表单之前，正是HubSpot AEO发挥作用的时刻。
Before the first click, before they fill in the form, that is the moment HubSpot AEO is built for.
去 hubspot.com 看看，这是专为成长型企业打造的智能客户平台。
Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses.
我对这些研究论文有个不一样的做法：我读完之后会问自己，这对我有用吗？
I have a different tactic with these research papers, which is I basically read it, and then I say, does this serve me?
如果结论说你的基因决定了你一半的财务成功，我通常直接忽略这类说法， partly 因为很多统计数据其实都是误导。
And like, if the conclusion of that was that your genetic disposition determines half of your financial success, you know, I tend to just throw things like that out the window, partially because there are some great lies and statistics.
对吧？
Right?
比如之前来我们播客的霍华德·马克斯就问过，标普指数的年均回报率是多少？
Like, Howard Marks, who was on the podcast described, he's like, oh, what's the S and P's average annual return?
我们说，10%。
And we're like, 10%.
他说，没错。
He's like, yeah.
但你知道10%的回报率实际发生的频率有多低吗？
But do you know how often 10% happens?
其实根本就从来没出现过。
And it was like, pretty much never.
实际的年收益率波动非常大。
The actual the actual annual returns vary widely.
它可能是平均值，但绝对不是中位数或者众数。
So it might be the mean, but it's definitely not the median or the mode.
你看到这些数字，真觉得能拿到10%吗？
And and so, like, you have these numbers, and do you expect it's gonna be 10%?
但几乎从来都不是正好10%。
And it's almost never 10%.
有时候高很多，有时候低很多，最后平均下来才到这个数。
It overperforms and underperforms and then averages out to that.
就像很多人溺水在泳池里，那地方平均水深才一米五。
And same thing, like, you know, many men drown in the pool that was crossing the river that was on average five feet in-depth.
因为平均数根本说明不了多少问题。
It's because averages don't tell you so much.
所以有很多统计上的陷阱，容易让人误以为，只要某件事是常态、是平均值，或者曾经被研究过，就一定值得下结论。
And so there's all kinds of these, like, statistical things that can mislead you, that just because something is a norm or an average or was studied once that that's that is I guess I should draw a conclusion from that.
我特别推崇那种有效的安慰剂。
And I'm a big fan of basically, like, productive placebos.
所以关键问题不是现状如何。
So the question is not, what is the situation?
而是我需要相信什么，才能做出那些带来好结果的事情？
Is what do I need to believe in order to do the things that will lead to a good result?
对吧？
Right?
所以我不需要知道所有事情。
And so, you know, I don't need to know everything.
我甚至不需要知道什么才是对的、什么是真的。
I don't need to know even what's right, what's true.
没错。
True.
谁在乎什么是真的？
Who cares what's true?
重要的是什么管用。
It's what's useful is what matters.
所以我一直在找那些能装进脑子里、让我去做想做的事、过上想要的生活的信念。
And so I try to find what are the beliefs that I need to stuff in my brain that is gonna lead to me doing the things I wanna do to have the life I wanna have.
老兄，你这结论也太奇怪了吧。
Dude, that's so weird that that's your takeaway.
我的看法正好相反：既然这些是事实，那我该怎么利用它们，继续得到我想要的东西？
I my takeaway is the opposite, which is if these are the facts, then how do I use the facts just to continue to get what I want?
首先，现在根本就存在严重的重复性危机，谁知道那些是不是真事实。
First of all, there's like this huge replication crisis where who knows if these are even the facts.
其次，就算那些是事实，如果它们告诉我一切都在掌控之外，我的基因已经注定了我一半的命运，那不就跟我跟傻瓜兄弟里的情节一样了吗？
And then secondly, even if they were the facts, if the facts start telling me that it's out of my control and that, you know, whatever my DNA was is imprinting, you know, half, it's kinda like, you know, Lloyd and Dumb and Dumber.
所以你是说，还有希望？
It's like, so you're saying there's a chance.
所以，意思是我自己还能掌控55%？
It's like, oh, so there's still 55% in my control?
太棒了。
Fantastic.
那我干嘛非得去了解那些东西？
So it's like, why did I need to know any of that?
我只需要知道，哪些行为让人赚钱。
All I needed to know was that here's the here's the behaviors that lead people to make money.
哪些行为让人赔钱。
Here's the behaviors that lead people to lose money.
就做那些能赚钱的。
Do the ones that make money.
避开那些会赔钱的。
Avoid the ones that lose.
我觉得你的意思是，你的基因倾向会让你在某些方面更容易失败，所以得特别留心那些地方。
I think what you're saying is that your genetic disposition is gonna, like, bias you towards maybe failing in a couple of these more than others and be more on guard to those.
这就是你要说的重点吗？
Is that the takeaway?
对。
Yes.
这五六个里面，你最常犯的是哪一个？
Which of those five or six are you most guilty of?
因为我全都犯过。
Because I was guilty of all of those.
每一个我都做错了。
Every one of those, I I do wrong.
你什么意思？
What do mean?
我还没花时间好好想这个问题。
I haven't spent enough time to think about this.
但是
But
我挺有本国偏见的。
I'm pretty home country bias.
我不会去买印尼的工业股之类的。
I'm not, like, buying, like, industrials in Indonesia.
不是这样的，偏见不是说你只做这些、完全不做那些。
That's not I mean, I don't think the bias I don't that's not how biases work, where it's like, you only do these and not all these.
显然，你哪样都做。
Obviously, you do all of them.
关键是，你更倾向于哪一边？
It just what do you skew towards?
我觉得我大概是不愿意割肉离场。
I would say probably refusing to sell losers.
这个嘛，我不太确定。
Like, don't know.
其实我做得还不错。
I'm pretty good, actually.
不是。
No.
我的意思是，我也不太清楚。
I mean, I do wouldn't know.
我的意思是，我确实都会做，但有些做得更多一些。
What I'm saying is I do all of them, but I do some more than others.
我在想具体是哪些。
I'm trying to think which ones do
我主要做那些。
I do most.
我的偏好明显是更关注活跃度，而不是别的。
Mine's definitely the activity one over activity.
我没有这个问题，也不追涨杀跌。
I don't have that issue, But and I don't have performance chasing.
我坚持做自己懂的，一直这样，而且确实不愿意割肉离场。
I do, like, stick to what I know, and I'd I've I've I've always done that, and I do refuse to sell losers.
我对自己喜欢的东西会特别有感情。
I I get emotional about, like, the things that I like.
没错。
Right.
我问你个事。
Let me ask you this.
你六年前把Hustle卖了？
You you sold the hustle six years ago?
五年前？
Five years ago?
到底是哪一年？
What was it?
2021年2月。
February '21.
明白了。
Alright.
那我们就说是五年吧。
So let's call it five years.
这五年表现怎么样？
Has that performed well?
毕竟你当时投入了一大笔资金。
Because obviously, you got a huge slug of capital.
这五年里翻倍了吗？
Do have to double in the five years?
是的。
Are you Yeah.
比如说。
Like
假设其中有80%投到了标普500指数。
Well, assume that 80% went into the S and P 500.
对。
Yeah.
翻倍了。
It's double.
涨了百分之七十五吗？
Is it up 75%?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得标普指数涨多少，我的投资组合就有80%跟着涨多少。
I I think the S and P I mean, just whatever the S and P is up, 80% of my portfolio is up that amount.
对。
Right.
我想知道你是什么感受。
And I'm curious how you feel.
霍华德·巴克斯来的时候说过，嘿。
You know, Howard Barks came on and he said, hey.
现在的标普500是个糟糕的投资。
The S and P 500 right now is a bad bet.
所以你看，这个人快九百岁了，拥有全部的经验和知识。
And so here's you got a guy who's, whatever, 900 years old, who's got all of the experience and all of the knowledge.
他上我们的播客时，直接跟我们说，现在投资标普指数是个糟糕的决定。
And he says as he comes on our podcast and says to our face, the S and P is a bad bet right now.
他说这是因为标普的市盈率平均在23倍左右。
And he says it's because it's valued at, you know, 23 times PE ratio, whatever it is on average.
他上节目的时候是八月份。
Was in August that he came on.
他还说，历史数据表明，如果你现在以这个估值买入标普指数，未来十年的回报可能会在负22%左右波动。
And he said, you know, the the ten year the history tell history tells us the data tells us that the next ten years will fluctuate between minus 22% when the S and P when you buy in at this valuation.
是啊，确实如此。
Is it like, yeah.
没错。
Sure.
但我的反驳是，难道我只是在捂着耳朵自欺欺人吗？
But, like, but here's my counterargument, or is it just like la la la la la in my ears?
是我懂的还不够多吗？
Is it just I don't know enough?
为了心安，我就干脆不操这个心了？
I'm just not gonna worry about it, like, for peace of mind?
你听到这个第一反应是什么？
Like, what was your reaction to that?
我就去算了一笔账。
So just I went and did the math.
你知道吗？自那以后，市场已经涨了12.5%。
Just so you know, the market's up 12.5% since he said that.
是啊。
Yeah.
他讲的是十年期的事。
He's like ten years.
对吧？
Right?
这可不是短短五个月的事。
So it's not like a five month thing.
他这么说的时候，我就觉得，我根本不在乎。
When he says that, I think I don't I don't care.
我觉得我清楚，我一直在研究美国。
I think I know that like, I study America.
我研究的是历史。
I study history.
只要我还活着，历史大概率还会不断重演。
History will probably continue to repeat itself for while I'm alive.
我觉得美国还会存在下去，但现在的标普500已经不是一个纯粹的美国指数了。
And if I'm I think America will continue to exist, but the S and P 500 at this point is not an American index.
它是个全球性的指数。
It's a global index.
所以我只是觉得，它还会继续涨，我每年就盯着8%的名义回报。
And so I just think that it's just gonna keep on going, and I am chasing 8% nominal return every single year.
如果我能实现这个目标——我对自己很有信心——那我会非常满足，这完全符合我当初卖掉公司前制定的个人计划。
And if I get that, which I feel quite high that I that I will, then I'm very happy, and that fits within my personal plan that I set out when I was when I before I sold
我研究历史。
the company I study history.
他说的是，历史数据显示回报率并不仅仅是8%。
He's saying the history shows that it's not just 8%.
这取决于你入场时的估值水平，这个说法很有道理。
It depends what your entry point valuation is, which makes sense.
对吧？
Right?
当然了。
Obviously.
但他并没有说，未来五十年就不会是这样了。
But what but but but he but he didn't say that it's not going to be that way for the next fifty years.
我关注的是，你只是在说，
What I'm looking at is You're just saying, like,
更长的时间周期。
longer time horizon.
不止十年这么短。
Longer than just a decade.
对。
Yes.
我关注的是，我能不能达到一百的目标。
What I what I look at is to where I'm a 100.
我21岁的时候，给自己定下了一个目标：30岁前要攒到这笔钱。
Basically, when I was 21 years old, I set a target where I want this amount of money while I'm 30.
如果30岁真攒到了，这笔钱每年按8%增长，那我这辈子就能安心花，还留得住一部分，可以传给后代或者捐出去。
And if I get that amount of money at the age of 30, that will grow 8% a year, which means I can spend this amount on my life and I could still have x, y, and z, which I can leave or give away.
霍华德·马克斯说的那些，就算他说得对，也不会打乱我的计划。
And I just don't think that what Howard Marks says, which if he is right, it won't break that plan.
只要这个计划还在。
As long as that plan.
是的。
Yeah.
只要平均每年保持8%的增长，持续40年，只要能做到这一点——我相信一定能做到，我就心满意足了。
As that as long as 8% per year over 40 on average, as long as that happens, which I believe it will, then I am happy.
我特别喜欢，如果你写一本关于投资的书，翻开第一页，上面写的就全是美国。
I love that if you wrote, like, a book on investing and you, like, open it up, it would just be like, America.
第一页就全是美国的内容。
It would be like the the first page.
标普500，难道苹果不是美国公司吗？
The S and P 500, so not is Apple an American company?
当然不是。
Of course not.
对。
Yeah.
你知道吗
Do you know
我的意思是，你懂吧？
what I mean?
没错。
It is.
这就是美国。
It's America.
丰田是日本公司吗？
Is Toyota a Japanese company?
当然不是。
Of course not.
他们在美洲本地生产丰田汽车。
They make Toyota here in America.
我以前住在田纳西州，离日产工厂不远。
You know, I lived in Tennessee nearby the Nissan plant.
说白了，这全是
Like, it's all it's
如果一家公司总部设在这里，绝大多数员工在这里，大部分收入和利润也都来自这里。
a If a company is headquartered here, vast majority of employees are here, vast majority of revenues here, vast majority of profits is here.
从实际角度看，它就是一家美国公司。
It's for all intents and purposes, it's an American company.
就算这个比例不是百分之百，但要是六成、七成呢？
Whether that number's not a 100%, but is it 60%, 70%?
那它仍然是……
It's still
占多数。
a majority.
但我真不明白这对我意味着什么。
I just don't know what that means to me.
你刚才说了一大堆话，可在我看来都太模糊了。
Like, you just said a lot of words that to me were vague.
如果利润在这里，那谁……
If the profits are here, if the Who's
买iPhone的人在哪里？
buying the iPhones?
对吧？
Right?
我是说，我不确定答案是不是多数，我真的说不准。
Like, where are the I don't I don't know if the I don't if the answer is majority.
咱们问问克劳德吧。
Let's ask let's ask Claude here.
美国市场的销售额占总收入的43%。
So 43% of total revenue comes from American sales.
运营利润的54%也来自美国。
54% of the, like, operating income.
明白了。
Okay.
那我们就姑且说，两项都差不多一半，上下浮动个十个百分点吧。
So let's just say half on both accounts ish, give or take 10.
我不确定。
I don't know.
那是家美国公司吗？
Is that an American company?
两者都是吧？
Both right?
我觉得大概是一半。
I think it's half.
你卖的时候，相比你当初的操作，涨了多少百分比？
When you sold, what percent is it up based off of whatever you did with it?
但我也不清楚你当时是怎么操作的。
Which I don't know what you did with it.
我们卖掉之后，我的净资产涨了四十倍左右。
My net worth is up 40 times or something since we sold.
对吧？
Right?
说是涨了不少。
It says up a lot.
但问题是，其中很大一部分，大概有70%，都来自我们创办或持有的公司，而不是说我在公开股市上是个多么优秀的投资者。
But the problem is a huge percentage of it, probably 70% of that came from companies we started or we we own and not like, oh, I'm a good investor in the public stock market.
所以，你知道的，我也不太确定。
So, you know, I I don't know.
你把私有公司也算作你的净资产吗？
Do you consider private companies to be part of your net worth?
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
老兄，我不去算那些，但我
Dude, I don't calculate But I
不说流动资产净值。
don't say liquid net worth.
对吧？
Right?
我确实有流动净资产。
I have liquid net worth.
每两个月，当我感觉手头紧的时候，我就想，好吧，
That's one whenever I do my, like, every two months when I just feel like I need more money, then I go, okay.
去看看我们到底有多少钱。
Let's go see how much money we actually have.
去看看情况怎么样。
Let's go see what's going on.
然后我去算流动净资产，再算非流动净资产。
And I go and I calculate liquid net worth, and I calculate the illiquid net worth.
我把它们分开看，因为非流动资产那边，只要这两家公司里有哪家出点问题，就可能全泡汤。
I look at them separately because, like, the illiquid one, like, that one thing can go wrong in two of these businesses, and that could get wiped out.
对吧？
Right?
它可能会大幅下跌。
Like, it go it can go way down.
我们的电商业务以前在净资产里占的比例大得多，但后来下滑了，因为这个业务的表现没其他业务好。关税一来，消费者心态变了，我们的利润率也缩了一点，就卡在那儿了。
Like like, our ecommerce business was a much bigger percentage of net worth, but it's gone down because it that business hasn't performed as well as the other businesses because when tariffs hit and, you know, consumer sentiment has changed and our margins shrunk a little bit, like, you know, it hit a a little bit of a plateau.
这方面确实有变化。
Like, there has been changes in that.
所以，好吧。
So, okay.
我们得在内部重新评估一下，看看它实际值多少钱。
We have to mark that down internally of, like, how much we think that's worth.
我们之前觉得它值X。
We thought it was worth x.
现在它的价值比X低了一点。
Now it's worth a little less than x.
今天的播客由我们的朋友Mercury赞助。
Today's podcast is brought to you by my friends at Mercury.
他们做的银行产品是全世界最好的。
They make the world's best banking product.
我想你早就知道了。
I think you know this already.
我所有的生意都在用 Mercury。
I use Mercury for all of my businesses.
我大概有七八个生意吧。
I think I have, like, maybe seven or eight businesses.
我们所有生意的对公账户都用 Mercury。
We use Mercury as our business banking across all of them.
他们最近刚推出了个人银行账户。
And now they actually just launched a personal bank account.
所以我的个人账户也转到那儿了。
So I have my personal account there.
我已经把账户从富国银行和摩根大通转过来了。
I moved off of Wells Fargo and Chase.
我完全用着Mercury。
I'm just all in on Mercury.
为什么呢？
Why?
我喜欢好上手的产品。
I like products that are easy to use.
我喜欢那些懂我、懂我痛点的产品。
I like products that get me and the problems that I have.
比如，和我老婆一起开个联名账户，特别简单。
So, like, very easy to make a joint account with my wife.
生成虚拟卡片也是一点就成。
Very easy to spin up virtual cards.
点一下就能开通储蓄收益。
One click, and I get savings yield.
所有我需要的功能，全都在一个地方。
It just has all the stuff that I need in one place.
所以如果你在找市场上最好的银行产品，那绝对是Mercury。
So if you're looking for the best banking product on the market, it's definitely Mercury.
谁要是不同意我这观点，我跟他打一架。
I will fist fight anybody who disagrees with me on that.
去 mercury.com/personal 了解更多。
Go to mercury.com/personal and learn more.
Mercury 是一家金融科技公司，不是经FDIC保险的银行。
Mercury is a fintech, not an FDIC insured bank.
银行服务由Choice Financial Group和Column, N.A.提供。
Banking services are provided through Choice Financial Group and Column, N.
A。
A.
会员受FDIC保障。
Members FDIC.
你刚才说的主题是什么？
What what was your topic?
我想聊的是
What I wanna talk
几个让我脑洞大开的商业想法，这些想法来自YC的创业征集清单。
to you about is a couple of business ideas that broke my brain, and these come from the YC request for start list.
如果你不知道YC，它是世界上最成功的孵化器，也是有史以来最成功的早期投资者。
So if you don't know YC, the most successful accelerator invest early stage investor in the world, in the history of the world.
他们帮助孵化了Airbnb和Dropbox，并且是这些公司最早的投资者，当时估值只有200万美元，而现在这些公司已经价值上千亿美元了。
They helped see the Airbnb and Dropbox, and they were the first investor at, like, a $2,000,000 valuation in these, like, you know, $100,000,000,000 companies now.
太好了。
Great.
所以他们每年都会发布这些所谓的“闭嘴请求”。
So they, every year, release these request to shut ups.
而且，我看这些榜单已经看了大概十年了。
And for and I've been looking at these lists for, like, ten years.
对吧？
Right?
大多数年份，你也就是跟着点点头。
And and most years, it's kind of like you just nod along.
你会觉得，哦，好吧。
You're like, oh, okay.
好的。
Cool.
他们每个学期或者每个季度都会做一次。
They do it every semester or every quarter.
他们一年有四次，分别是秋季、夏季、春季和冬季。
They they have fall, summer, spring, winter.
对。
Right.
以前他们发布这个列表的频率没那么高，而且内容通常是一些类似‘律师专用软件’这样的点子。
And they used to do it a little bit less often, and it would be things that were like, hey.
比如‘给律师用的更好用的软件’。
Better software for lawyers.
嘿。
Hey.
应该有人开发一个工具，帮这个人搞定这事。
Somebody should make a a tool that helps this person do this.
这些都是挺正常的商业项目。
It is normal sounding businesses.
不过也不是全都这样。
Well, some of them are not.
三年前我们有一个项目，是关于如何治愈癌症的。
Some one of our three years ago was a way to end cancer.
是的。
Yeah.
就是说，好吧。
Like okay.
所以随着时间推移，这些项目变得越来越——我不知道该说更雄心勃勃，还是更了不起，反正就是快把我整懵了。
So so over time, they've been getting progressively more, I don't know if you wanna say, like, ambitious or just impressive or, like, you know, just sort of breaking my brain.
我最想跟你聊的是这个，我觉得你对它有不少想法。
So the one I wanna talk to you about the most, which I think you have a bunch of ideas around.
不过我这边有三个点，特别想跟你讨论一下。
But I I have I have three that I I wanna talk to you about.
我先说个轻松的，最后再讲那个最烧脑的。
I'll start with a fun one, and then we'll go to the most brain breaking one at the end.
第一个轻松的点是这样的。
Fun one is this.
这个不在他们的清单上，但来自XYZ那边的丹尼尔·格罗斯，人挺厉害的。
This isn't on their list, but it came from one of the the XYZ guys, Daniel Gross, who who's great.
他在谈所谓的‘美观的数据中心’。
He he's talking about aesthetic data centers.
现在世界上有个问题，就是我们需要更多的数据中心。
And so there's this problem right now in the world Yeah.
为了所谓的赢得人工智能竞赛，我们还需要大量的电力。
Where we need way more data centers and we need way more power in order to, like, quote unquote, win the AI race.
问题是，大多数美国人其实讨厌人工智能。
And the problem is that most Americans actually hate AI.
这太荒谬了。
It's crazy.
他们用着AI，却讨厌AI。
Like, they use AI, but they hate AI.
他们不喜欢人工智能。
They don't like AI.
他们不喜欢它的发展方向。
They don't like what's where it's going.
他们不喜欢那些科技巨头。
They don't like the big tech companies.
不知为什么，对大科技公司的反感一下子变得更强烈了。
It's like all the big big big tech backlash is just, like, ratcheted up for some reason.
你要是去看看TikTok上关于AI的任何评论，简直让人震惊。
If you go read, like, the TikTok comments about anything about AI, it's unbelievable.
人们真的不喜欢人工智能。
People really do not like AI.
他们不喜欢AI生成的艺术。
They don't like AI art.
他们不喜欢AI创作的音乐。
They don't like AI music.
他们也不喜欢AI在效率方面的应用。
They don't like AI, you know, productivity.
他们讨厌数据中心。
They don't like data centers.
他们觉得这会推高他们的电费。
They think it's taking their it's gonna increase their power bills.
还会耗尽他们的水资源。
It's gonna, like, use all their water.
尽管事实恰恰相反，但各种说法还是层出不穷。
There's all kinds of different things even though the data would say the opposite.
对吧？
Right?
你知道吗，高尔夫球场用水量是数据中心的上百倍，可没人跑去抗议高尔夫球场。
Like, you know, golf courses use a 100 times more water than data centers, but nobody's out here, like, protesting a golf course.
所以现在有个问题，大公司确实需要建数据中心，但各个小镇一听说要建数据中心，就全都是‘别建在我家后院’的态度。
And so there's this problem, which is that these big companies need to build data centers, but the towns all have this sort of, like, not in my backyard mentality when it comes to data centers.
有人提到了丹尼尔·格罗斯的一个想法。
So somebody brought up Daniel Gross brought up this idea.
他说，如果我们看看这些数据中心的建设成本，投入真的非常高。
He's like, I think that we need to if we look at these data centers, the spend is so high to build them.
对吧？
Right?
建一个数据中心动不动就是几十亿美元的投入。
We're talking like billions of dollars to build one.
要是花点额外的钱，让建筑本身更美观、更有设计感，或者让整个社区看着舒服一点，其实成本增加微乎其微，我们真该认真考虑这个方向。
The incremental extra to make it, like, architecturally beautiful or interesting or, like, something that helps the like like, feels good in the neighborhood type of deal is very small, and we should really be considering this.
我觉得这个想法特别有意思，我以前从来没这么想过。
And I just thought this was, like, a really interesting idea I had never thought about.
我觉得你这么讲究品味、历史和文化的人，一定会对这个感兴趣，说不定历史上早就有类似的情况，只是我不了解，但你可能能想到——企业其实可以通过某种方式，打造公共艺术，让社区感觉更好。
I thought you, as a man of style, history, and culture, would appreciate this, that there's probably some historical comps to this that I don't know about that you might be able to think about where companies sort of figure out how to, like, almost, like, create a public good or create public art in a way to, like Yeah.
差不多就是企业用这种方式，来美化自己的形象。
Almost, like, corporate wash their, like, agenda.
我正好能举个很好的例子。
I can give you a great one.
没错。
Yeah.
约翰·洛克菲勒，就像是上世纪二十年代的杰夫·贝佐斯。
So John Rockefeller, he was sort of like the Jeff Bezos of the nineteen twenties.
他创办了标准石油公司，到五十岁的时候，这家公司已经是全球最大的企业。
He started Standard Oil, which by the time he was 50 years old, it was the largest company in the world.
大到连西奥多·罗斯福都不得不出手反垄断，美国的反垄断法就是因他而诞生的。
So large that Teddy Roosevelt became a monopoly buster, and the nonmonopoly act in America was created because of him.
他身上总有一种让人反感的气质，大家觉得他就像史高治·麦克老鸭那样吝啬。
So he had this really bad energy about him where people thought he was just like, you know, Scrooge McDuck type of guy.
但他其实也是一家矿场的合伙人。
Well, he also was part owner of a mine.
我记得是在科罗拉多州。
I think it was in Colorado.
那时候标准石油公司规模太大了。
And they were basically Standard Oil was so big.
他们得自己建一座矿，才能拿到所需的化学原料。
They needed to do create their own mine in order to get the chemicals.
还得建窑炉，用来烧制他们生产所需的各种东西。
They needed to make the ovens for the to to make the you know, to make all their shit.
总之，小约翰·洛克菲勒是他的接班人。
Anyway, John D Junior was the predecessor.
他是老约翰的儿子，后来接管了公司。
He was the son of John Sr, and he takes over the company.
他其实是个好人。
And he's a he's a good guy.
他就是老约翰·D。
And he's John D Senior.
他本人也是个好人，但后来把责任交给了儿子。
He actually was a good guy as well, but he goes to his son.
他对儿子说：你得想想怎么在这个世界上做点好事，把咱们家的名声挽回，做正确的事。
He's like, I need you to figure out how to do good in this world and, like, bring our name back and and do what's right.
小约翰去了那座矿，发现成千上万的工人生活在极端恶劣的环境中。
Well, Junior goes to this mine and he sees that, like, tens of thousands of workers are living in squalor.
情况太糟糕了。
It's horrible.
他去那里的原因是，我记得当时发生了一场洪水，那个破旧的矿工小镇——其实就是公司镇——有两百多人丧生。
And the reason he goes there is because I believe that there was a flood and like two hundred people died in this little crappy mining town, which is basically a company town.
小约翰到了那里，一看，心想：这简直太不像话了。
And John Junior goes there and he is like, this is horrible.
我真不敢相信我们竟让这种事发生了。
I can't believe we let this happen.
我现在明白你们为什么会死去了。
I see why you guys died.
你们的生活条件简直太差了，这简直没法看。
This is this is garbage, the way you guys are living.
我心里特别难受。
I feel so bad.
我们得为这事做点什么了。
We have to do something about this.
他确实采取了行动，但他的名声却严重受损了。
And he does do something about it, but his reputation is truly harmed.
后来大萧条来了。
Well, the great depression happens.
在纽约，大量工作机会消失，许多蓝领工人被停职或直接裁员。
In New York City, a lot of jobs get screwed up and a lot of blue collar workers go on are furloughed and and just laid off.
他说，咱们得做点什么。
And he's like, we gotta do something.
他想出一个建筑方案，在纽约中城建起了一座巨大的大楼。
And he comes up with this idea with this for an architectural project, and he builds this massive tower in Midtown, New York City.
他说，咱们要把它打造成一个了不起的工程。
And he's like, we're gonna make this amazing.
这会成为史上最伟大的项目之一，还能提供上万个就业岗位。
It's gonna be one of the greatest things ever, and we're gonna employ, like, 10,000 people.
我们要重新激活整座城市——这就是洛克菲勒中心。
We're gonna revitalize the city, and that is Rockefeller Center.
洛克菲勒中心是一座主楼，周围环绕着几座较小的建筑。
And Rockefeller Center is a huge tower surrounded by smaller towers.
一开始，呃，抱歉。
And in the in the beginning or sorry.
中庭里有一座雕像，一个人正托举着整个世界。
In the the the courtyard, there's a man lifting up the world.
这本来是想表现阿特拉斯的样子。
It's like supposed to be like Atlas.
你懂的。
You know?
他当时的意思是，这个雕塑象征着我们想做的事。
And he was sort of like, this signifies what we're trying to do.
我们要把这片区域、这个时代里那些糟糕的东西扭转过来。
We are trying to take, like, the bad in in this area, in this era of time.
我们打算把它打造成一个了不起的工程。
We're gonna try and make this amazing.
所以约翰·D·
So John D.
洛克菲勒就是我所说的‘声誉洗白’的典型例子。
Rockefeller is an example of who of someone who has done what I call reputation laundering.
没错。
He Right.
他把一些本来很糟糕的东西拿过来，
Like, he took something that was bad.
所以小约翰·D·洛克菲勒的名声非常好，很多人觉得这在一定程度上要归功于洛克菲勒中心。
And so John D Junior actually has a great reputation, and a lot people believe it's in part because of Rockefeller Center.
这是个很好的例子。
That's a great example.
我还让AI给我找些别的例子，它提到一个我以前不知道的有趣案例：当时需要在各地安装手机信号塔。
I asked AI also for some other examples of this, and it talks about one funny example that I didn't know about was when cell phone towers were needed, like, everywhere.
对吧？
Right?
就是那种手机信号塔。
Like, phone phone towers.
人们不喜欢那些又丑又突兀的钢架塔，于是他们发明了你见过单杆松树或者单杆棕榈树吗？
People didn't like these ugly steel towers that were put up, so they created have you ever seen a monopine or a monopalm?
其实就是把信号塔伪装成万圣节装饰的样子，真够奇葩的。
It's basically a cell tower that is like a Halloween costume where Sick.
看起来就像一棵棕榈树或者松树的顶部。
Looks like a palm tree or a pine tree at the top.
他们只是假装弄了点树皮，加上假树枝和塑料做的松针，让人以为那是真树，而不是难看的钢架。
They just, like, fake put, like, bark they put fake bark and fake branches and fake fake plastic, you know, pine needles so that it looks like a tree and not like a ugly steel thing.
他们就是靠这种方式，顺利建成了所需的基础设施。
And that's how they got through in building out the infrastructure needed.
另一个例子是卡内基。
Another example was Carnegie.
卡内基当然拥有卡内基钢铁公司，同时还在全美建了两千五百多座图书馆，为各个社区提供了实实在在的好处。
So Carnegie obviously had Carnegie Steel, and then he built 2,500 libraries across America while while running Carnegie Steel, and it served as, like, you know, a a good to each of the communities.
而当时，卡内基钢铁公司正爆发大规模罢工，因为他们的劳工政策极其严苛。
And this is while, like, there was, like, huge strikes happening because, like, they had pretty brutal labor practices with Carnegie Steel.
他真是个伪君子。
He was such a hypocrite.
他一边说要为世界做善事，一边又说过一句名言：只要盯住成本，利润自然就会来。
He was like, I'm gonna do all this good stuff for the world, but he had this famous quote where he would say, if you watch the cost, the profits will follow.
对他来说，最大的成本就是人力成本，他在对待员工方面可是出了名的刻薄。
And for him, the biggest cost was workers' costs, and he was known for being a a kind of a jackass when it came to workers.
所以我觉得，有件事特别有意思，我敢预测马上就会发生。
And so and so I think there's I think there's something very interesting that I I would predict is gonna happen.
我不确定他们会怎么做。
I don't know what they're gonna do.
我不清楚他们是会搞些公园空间，还是干脆把数据中心设计成鸟巢那样的造型之类的。
I don't know if it's like park spaces or if the if they're gonna design the actual data centers to look like the bird's nest or whatever.
我不知道他们最终会选哪种方式，但看起来他们非得做点什么不可。
I don't know what they're gonna do, but it does seem like they're gonna have to do something.
这完全是可以做到的。
It totally can be done.
你去过奥克兰的帕拉蒙特剧院吗？就是我以前办活动的那个地方？
Have you been to the like, do you know the Paramount in Oakland, the theater where I used to host my event?
你还记得那儿有多美吗？
Do you remember how beautiful that is?
那是上世纪三十年代的风格。
That's from the nineteen thirties.
但直到五十年代，也就是二战结束前，这些建筑都美得不得了。
But, like, up until, like, the nineteen fifties, I would say, before like, right before the end of World War two, a lot of these buildings were gorgeous.
我住在纽约西城的上城区，那里的人管那种老房子叫战前建筑。
I live in the Upper Side of West New York City, and the architecture from any they call it a prewar building.
它们真的特别漂亮。
They're absolutely gorgeous.
而且。
And
我就想不通，为什么现在都流行这种极简风格，搞得这么单调，但我觉得这个想法特别棒。
so I just I I don't know why, like, this minimalism took place where, like, it's things a lot more plain, but I this is a great idea.
一定要给大卫·帕尔和文化导师点个赞，他们现在正努力把美重新带回这个世界。
Shout out to David Parr and Cultural Tutor who are who are on a crusade right now to bring beauty back to to the world.
如果你还没看过，赶紧去YouTube搜一下‘文化导师’看看。
And so if if you haven't seen, go watch their go go look up Cultural Tutor, I think, on YouTube.
去看看他们发布的内容。
And watch the the sort of the stuff they're putting out.
播放量有好几百万。
It's got millions of views.
很多人特别有共鸣，都在问：为什么现在所有东西都长得一模一样？为什么都这么单调？
People really resonated with this, like, why does everything look the same, and why does everything look so bland now?
我真没想到这会戳中这么多人的痛点，但确实戳中了。
I would have never guessed that that would touch such a nerve, but it definitely does.
他们找到了一种特别能引起共鸣的东西，现在还打算拍一部相关的电影之类的。
They have found, like, something that the that people resonate with a lot, and they're building, like, a whole, like I think they're doing, a movie on it or something like that.
他们在做一件特别酷的事。
They're doing something cool with that.
行了。
Alright.
我再跟你分享两个让我脑洞大开的想法，可以吗？
Can I give you two of these other ideas that kind of broke my brain a little bit?
一个是公司大脑。
So one is the company brain.
我觉得你一直在想这个。
I think you've been thinking about this.
我确实有。
I do.
现在就是这样。
Now.
我们现在就有了。
We we have it now.
关于这个，其实有好几种理解方式。
There's and there's a bunch of different ways to take this.
那这到底意味着什么？
So what what does this mean?
大概可以从两个角度来理解。
So there's two ways to take this.
我先说第一个，也是我觉得更有趣的那个。
I'll I'll just describe the first one, the one that's more interesting to me.
现在，人们把人工智能看作是一个特别聪明的助手。
Today, AI is seen as a very smart assistant.
你有问题的时候去找它，它会帮你找答案。
So it's someone you go to when you have a question, and it'll go fetch you the answer.
你有任务的时候交给它，它就会试着帮你完成。
It's somebody you go to when you have a task, and you delegate the task, and it'll try to do the task for you.
这就像是每个人都有一个初级的首席助理。
So it's kinda like this junior everybody gets a chief of staff.
每个人都拥有一个聪明、随时在线、从不顶嘴的助手。
Everybody gets an assistant who's smart, always on, and doesn't talk back.
这听起来很棒。
Fantastic.
我想，大多数人心里对人工智能的设想就是这样的。
And that's what it I think the the mental model most people have of how AI is gonna going to gonna work.
有些人觉得，未来会像有了数字员工一样。
And some people sort of see it as like, oh, it'll be like you'll have digital employees.
我们会少雇一些人，因为那些工作都由AI来干了，就像矿工一样替我们挖煤。
Like, oh, we'll we'll probably hire fewer people because they'll just be like kind of these workers, these AI workers, these these guys in the coal mine just digging for us.
这真是太棒了。
This is so great.
我们的生产力会大幅提升。
We're gonna have so many we're gonna have so much productivity.
但我认为实际情况恰恰相反——不是AI为我们工作，而是我们为AI工作。
And I think actually it's going the other way, which is it's not that the AI works for us, but that we work for the AI.
这话可能让人听了不舒服，但我还是得解释一下这是什么意思。
And people are gonna hate that sentence, but let me just describe what that means.
AI非常擅长处理海量信息，无处不在地感知、阅读、掌握一切，并做出决策。
AI is very good at understanding a broad set of information, having eyes and ears everywhere, reading everything, knowing everything, and making decisions.
现在我们把它当小助理用，但趋势看起来是，AI最终会变成老板。
Today, we use it as the sort of junior employee, but it does seem like the way this is going is that AI becomes the boss.
杰克·多西现在可能是最直言不讳的，他在Block公司裁掉了数万人。
Jack Dorsey is probably the most vocal about this right now, so he laid off tens of thousands of people at Block.
我觉得他其实想改变公司内部的组织架构。
And I think he's trying to, like, change the way the the the, you know, like, the org structure looks inside of a company.
也许我理解得不太对。
And I I I believe maybe I have this wrong.
萨姆，如果我讲得不对，你尽管纠正我。
Sam, you can correct me if I'm wrong.
我觉得他的意思是，AI才是大脑，而我们其他人只是给这个大脑提供背景信息。
I believe what he's saying is basically that the AI is the brain, and the rest of us are giving context to the brain.
所以我们得在外面跑。
So we're out there.
我们努力把准确的信息喂给它，好让它做出正确的判断。
We're trying to feed it the right information so that it can make the right decisions.
然后我们去执行任务，而这些任务本身又会产生新的数据，反馈回这个大脑。
And then we go do tasks, and those tasks also produce information that comes back to the brain.
这个大脑几乎了解公司里发生的一切，能综合所有因素，以更快的速度、更少的偏见、更少的疲惫和压力做出出色的决策。
The brain sort of knows everything that's going on in the company, can weigh all the different factors, and can make awesome decisions at high speed with less bias, with less fatigue, with less stress than the rest of us.
看起来，事情确实正朝着这个方向发展。
And it does seem like this is the way that things are going.
我只能说说自己的转变：一开始，我总是直接吩咐别人‘去干这个’或者‘告诉我这个’。
I could say this only just for my own use, which is I started out very much in a, hey, go do this, or hey, tell me this type of mode.
但现在，我越来越常说：‘你能先问我几个问题吗？’
And more and more, I basically say, hey, can you ask me questions?
我给你一些信息，然后你帮我做这个决定好吗？
I'll give you some answers, then can you help me make this decision?
你觉得这里最该怎么做？
Hey, can you tell me what the right move is here?
它在这方面做得非常好。
And it's very good at doing it.
对吧？
Right?
所以问题来了，公司以后真的会这样运作吗？
And so the question is like, are companies gonna work this way?
我再给你讲个最后的故事，跟这个有关。
And I'll give you one last story that's on top of this.
我不知道你还记不记得，几个月前有个研究团队叫 Sutrini，发了一篇博客文章。
So I don't know if you remember, but a few months ago, there's this research arm called Sutrini that put out this research that put out this this blog post.
那篇文章描述的几乎是个末日场景。
And the blog post basically described this sort of almost like a bit of a doomsday scenario.
他们说，AI 会带来巨大的生产力提升，结果就是公司需要的人会越来越少。
Basically, they described was that you're gonna get all this productivity from AI, which means you're gonna have fewer people working at these companies.
人少了，挣工资的人就少了，而工资是经济运转的关键——一个人的工资，会变成另一个人的消费收入。
So you're gonna have less people earning wages, which is what you need because the wages of one person become the spending in the economy, which becomes the wages of the next person.
员工一少，工资总额就跟着下降。
And so when you have fewer employees, then you have fewer wages.
工资一降，消费也会跟着减少。
And when you have fewer wages, you're gonna have less spending.
支出少了，收入也就跟着少了。
When you have less spending, you have less revenue.
收入一减少，公司就得进一步紧缩开支，继续裁员，这就形成了恶性循环。
When have less revenue, then you're gonna tighten the belt even more and cut more staff, and it creates this downward spiral spiral.
也许他们觉得情况没这么糟糕。
And maybe they said it's smarter than that.
但归根结底，他们得出的结论是，即便能提升效率，经济仍可能下滑。
But, ultimately, this was the the sort of conclusion that they had of how you might get this productivity gain, and it still might result in the economy going down.
我不知道这是否直接引发了市场动荡，或者只是巧合，但股市随后出现了大幅抛售。
This I don't know if it triggered or created or maybe just coincidentally, there was a huge sell off in the stock market.
股市大跌了不少百分点，就是因为大家对美国经济的前景感到非常担忧。
Like, the stock market went down, like, a huge percentage on on the back of this because people got pretty worried about what's gonna happen in The US economy.
毕竟，标普500指数反映的是美国市场的情况。
Because, again, the s p 500 is an American index.
好了。
Alright.
我们回过头来看。
Let's go back.
你听到这些，是不是觉得挺震惊的。
So so so you you hear this and you're like, wow.
这情况可不妙。
That's pretty bad.
他们 basically 写了这么一份报告。
And basically, they they wrote this thing.
这报告让所有人都挺沮丧的。
It was kinda depressing for everybody.
我让AI用三句话总结了一下。
I asked AI to summarize it in three sentences.
假设看涨的一方是对的，而且AI的发展完全如大家预期那样。
Imagine that the bulls are right and that AI works exactly as everyone predicts.
但恰恰就是这种发展会拖垮经济。
That's precisely what breaks the economy.
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