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我搜索了这个家族，出现的关键词是‘沉默的掌控’和‘全球规模的中间人’。
When I googled this family, the words came up were silent dominance, middlemen at planetary scale.
好的，萨姆。
Alright, Sam.
我给你挑了一个本周的比利，经典的MFM人物。
I have a I have a Billy of the week for you, an MFM classic.
这可不是普通的本周比利。
This is not just any Billy of the week.
这是美国最有名的比利之一，我以前其实不太了解他。
This is one of the biggest Billy's in America, one that I wasn't really that aware of.
我觉得你可能比我还熟悉他，不过等等。
I think you will know more than me about this, but I would say most Wait.
人们
People
我能猜猜吗？
Can I guess?
我先告诉你三件事，然后你来猜猜看。
Let me read you let me tell you three things about it, then you could take a guess.
好。
Okay.
明白吗？
Okay?
行。
Alright.
过去四十年里，它是美国最大的私营企业。
It is the largest private company in America for the last forty years.
对。
Mhmm.
这家公司88%的股份属于这个家族，培养出的家族亿万富翁数量比任何其他公司都多。
It is owned 88% by the family and has produced more fam more billionaires in one family than any other company ever.
它的营收超过了高盛、耐克和星巴克的总和。
They do more revenue than Goldman Sachs, Nike, and Starbucks combined.
哦，是玛氏公司还是可口可乐？
Oh, is it Mars or Coke?
你快猜对了。
You're in the right neighborhood.
雅诗兰黛？
Estee Lauder?
嗯，对。
Okay.
你稍微偏了点。
You left the neighborhood briefly.
再想想美国那些富裕的红脖子家族，比如……
Come back to the other neighborhood of, like, sort of rich redneck families of America.
是嘉吉公司。
It is Cargill.
对，没错。
Oh, yes.
卡吉尔家族。
So the Cargill family.
我以前对这个家族其实一无所知。
So I didn't really know anything about this family.
我能不能跟你简单讲讲他们的故事和他们做什么？
Can I just tell you a little bit about their story and and what they do?
这可是历史上最了不起的商业故事之一。
Because this is a dominant business story of all time.
等等。
Wait.
先说说，你为什么对这个感兴趣？
First, tell me, why did this interest you?
是什么吸引你注意他们的？
Why this catch your attention?
你还记得我上次去你家的时候吗？顺带提一句，我们发现了一个壁橱。
Remember when I was at your house and you were like, there's this closet here, by the way, that we found.
我们住了两个月后才发现，原来还有这么一间额外的储物间。
There's this extra storage room that we didn't even know till we lived here for two months.
当我发现美国最富有的家族之一，我居然完全不了解他们的故事时，就是这种感觉。
That's how I felt finding out that one of the most wealthy families in America, and I don't know their story.
我就是这种感觉。
That's how I felt.
作为《我的第一百万》的主持人，我觉得不管对错，我都得把这事弄清楚。
As the as the host of My First Million, I just felt like I needed to right or wrong.
明白了。
Okay.
我懂了。
I understand.
对了，我是怎么发现的呢？
And and the by the way, how did I find it?
有个Reddit帖子提到一些十亿美元级别的行业，而我压根儿不知道。
There was a Reddit thread that was tell me about billion dollar industries that I probably don't know about.
第一个是沙子，第二个是这个，第三个是再保险。
And it was like, the first one was sand, and the second one was this, and the third one is this, reinsurance.
保险公司买了保险，这叫再保险。
It's like, well, there's insurance companies, and then they buy insurance.
这叫再保险。
That's called reinsurance.
那再保险呢？你猜怎么着？
And then the reinsurance, guess what?
它们背后还有再保险公司。
They have reinsurance companies behind them.
这保险一层套一层，没完没了。
It's just insurance all the way down, baby.
我翻着这个帖子，看到其中一个提到嘉吉公司。
And so I was reading through this thread, and then one was Cargill.
我当时就想，嘉吉公司？
And I was like, oh, Cargill.
所以事情是这样的，故事得回到过去。那时候美国刚开始起步，铁路也陆续建起来了。农民们需要把他们的农作物、粮食卸下来卖掉。
So what they did so the story is back in the day, as America was was sort of getting its feet and railroads had been had been started to get built, Farmers needed to offload their crops, their grain, and they needed to sell them.
他们要么自己单干，比如农场主自己去找买家，还得想办法把货运过去；要么就跟中间商合作。
So they could either sell it individually, so the farm could try to sell individually to a buyer and figure out how to transport it there, or they could work with a middleman.
于是嘉吉就成了全球最大的中间商，起初主要是做粮食仓储。
And so Cargill became the biggest middleman on the planet for basically just initially storing grain.
他们会直接在铁路旁边建一种叫作‘粮仓’（grain elevator）的建筑，这其实就是一个巨大的粮食储存设施，这样粮食就不容易变质。
So they would go right next to where the railroad is, they would build what's called a grain elevator, which is basically a giant storage facility for grain so that it wouldn't spoil very quickly.
农民可以把粮食送过来，他们会拿到类似寄存凭证的东西，上面写着等粮食卖出去再付钱，或者他们就直接按批发价一口价买下来，然后再转手倒卖。
And the farmers could come drop it off, they would get like coat check, they'd get an IOU that says, I will pay you when your grain sells, or they would just buy it at a flat rate, like wholesale, and be able to flip it.
所以作为农民，你可以自己选择哪种方式。
So you could choose as the farmer which one you wanted to do.
这就是
This is what
顺便提一下，我父亲就是靠这个谋生的。
my father my father does for a living, by the way.
哦，那你本该知道的。
Oh, so maybe you should have known.
他做的是洋葱。
He does it with onions.
洋葱。
Onions.
不过没错，我父亲是个中间商。
But yes, my father's a broker.
他就是干这个的。
That's what he does.
他是只负责牵线搭桥，还是也会囤货？比如打个电话说：嘿，我这儿有七十五蒲式耳……
Does he store or he just calls one side and says, hey, I got 75 bushels
嗯，就是这个。
of Well, this.
这是新鲜农产品。
It's fresh produce.
所以储存时间其实就一天左右，不过确实有个地方，货物得在那里放上二十四个小时，等卡车来拉，没错。
So the storage is like a day, but yes, there is a place where they sit for like twenty four hours before a truck Yeah, comes and gets but yes.
有意思的是，罗比，从商业角度看，你总听说人不想当中间商。
And what's interesting, Robbie, this for me from a business perspective, you always hear this idea of like, you don't wanna be the middleman.
总说可以绕过中间商。
Oh, you can always cut out the middleman.
但在这个行业里，中间商反而比谁都赚得多。
And in this case, the middleman became worth more than everybody else.
其实仔细看，很多行业都是这样，中间商往往成了最有价值的一环。
And actually, if you look at many businesses, there's many businesses where the middleman becomes quite a valuable business.
这就引出一个问题：为什么？
And so there's an interesting question of why.
在这里，是因为中间商真的卡在了中间位置。
In this case, it's because the middleman was a physical was physically in the middle.
他们直接建了粮仓，就挨着铁路，把货牢牢地攥在手里。
They literally built the grain elevators that would store the shit right next to the railroad.
所以你得把粮食运出去。
And so you needed to transport it.
你得把粮食送到铁路边。
You needed to get to the railroad.
还有谁有这个能力呢？
Who else had it?
根本没人愿意去建这种设施。
Like, nobody else was gonna build that.
于是他们就开始干了。
So, anyways, they start doing that.
接着越做越大，越走越远。
They they then go, you know, further and further and further.
有一阵子，他们就说：嘿。
So, you know, at one point, they're like, hey.
用船运粮食效率太低了，尤其是不走铁路的时候。
The shipping barges are so inefficient where we're shipping the grain when it's not traveling by rail.
所以我们自己建船厂，造自己的船。
So we'll build our own shipyard, our own ships.
最后他们为美国海军生产了船只。
They end up producing ships for the US Navy.
他们收购了当时最大的肉类和家禽公司，现在掌控了肉类和粮食行业的大半份额。
They bought the biggest, like, meat, like, poultry company, and now they control, like, a huge percentage of the meat industry, of the grain industry.
于是他们建起了这样一个帝国，但外界几乎没人知道他们。
And so they built this, like, empire, and nobody really knows them.
说白了，这整个企业就是由一个家族在掌控。
And the and basically, it's just a family that's that owns this thing.
家族持股高达百分之八十八。
88% owned by the family.
现在家族里有大约二十位亿万富翁。
There's like 20 or something billionaires in the family now.
他们有个规矩，叫‘八二法则’。
They have this rule called the eighty twenty rule.
所以80%的利润都会重新投入公司运营。
So 80% of all profits will get reinvested back in the business.
剩下的20%作为股息分给家族，过去二十年左右，他们一直聘请职业CEO来管理公司。
20 goes out as dividends to the family, and they hire for the last, you know, twenty years or so, they've had professional CEOs running the company.
现在已经不是家族自己直接经营了。
It's not like family run anymore.
每年的利润，根据维基百科的数据，大概是50亿到60亿美元左右？
And the profit per year, according to Wikipedia, I think it's like 5 or $6,000,000,000?
是的。
Yeah.
那会儿正好是疫情最严重的时候，乌克兰遭到了攻击，而乌克兰本来是粮食出口大国，导致粮价暴涨。
That was like during like the kind of peak COVID stuff when, you know, when Ukraine was getting attacked and and, you know, Ukraine produces a lot of grain, and so their prices spiked.
现在正常年份的话，我觉得大概有30亿美元左右。
I think it's like 3,000,000,000 in a in a normal year right now.
明白了。
Okay.
好吧。
So okay.
所以，每年将近十亿美元的利润直接流入家族手中，而且这种状况已经持续了五十多年。
So so you're close to a billion dollars a year of profit that goes just straight to the family, and it's been doing that for like, whatever, fifty plus years.
我想跟你说点有意思的事。
And so I wanna tell you a little bit of this is something interesting.
一开始我就在想，他们到底做的是什么生意？
So first, was like, I was like, what do they actually do?
因为现在这些大公司规模太大了，几乎无处不在。
Because now, you know when these corporations get so big, so large, they just have their hand in everything.
你经常会看到有人说，你盘子里的东西，背后都有他们的影子。
And you would see these comments like, they're just everything on your plate.
你吃的所有包装食品，嘉吉公司都参与其中。
Anything you eat in a package, Cargill had a hand in it.
他们掌控着整个粮食供应链。
They're controlling the food supply.
人们一想到这种公司，就觉得像孟山都那样，是坏企业。
The people think of like Monsanto style, like, evil companies.
所以我想念一段话给你听。
And so just just I wanna read you this paragraph.
想象一下，你吃了一个汉堡包。
So imagine you eat a hamburger.
嘉吉公司很可能卖给了农民种子和化肥，用来种粮食。
Cargill probably sold the farmer the seed and the fertilizer to grow the grain.
他们从农民手里买下粮食，存放在自己的粮仓里。
They bought the grain from the farmer and stored it at their grain elevator.
然后用他们自己造的驳船运到加工厂，加工成动物饲料。
They shipped it on their barge that they built in their ships, that they built to a processing plant where it's processed into animal feed.
接着用这些饲料喂牛，等牛长成后宰杀。
And then they feed that to cattle who they then slaughter.
之后把肉存放在自己的屠宰加工厂里，再卖给餐馆。
They then store the meat at their meat packing plants, sell the beef to the restaurant.
对了，餐厅还得买盐。
By the way, the restaurant has to buy their salt.
他们把盐卖给了全国所有的快餐连锁店。
They sell, like, all of the salt to all of the fast food chains in the country.
他们从玉米里提炼出的玉米糖浆，最后都加进了番茄酱里。
And then the corn syrup that they processed out of the corn gets put into the ketchup.
炸薯条用的豆油，奶昔里用的淀粉，全都是嘉吉公司的产品。
The soybean oil that's used for the fries, the starch that's used in the milkshake, that's all Cargill.
你有没有觉得，一家公司居然能渗透到你日常生活的方方面面，这简直太不可思议了？
And isn't it crazy how like one company can have a hand in so much of your day to day life?
你以为自己去的是那种从农场直供的餐厅，其实根本逃不开他们，因为他们掌控着所有原材料——肥料、种子、谷物，连牛吃的饲料都逃不掉。
And and when you're when you think you're eating at some farm to table restaurant, you you're really not escaping them because they control the underlying ingredients that are used, the fertilizer, the seeds, the grains, like all of it that gets fed to the cows.
所有东西最终都追溯到同一个源头。
Like it all goes back to the source.
这难道不让人惊叹吗？
Isn't that kind of incredible?
这家家族规模庞大且利润惊人，还拥有资本合伙人公司，这是一家资产超过一千亿美元的对冲基金。
And the family is so big and so profitable, they also own Capital Partners, which is a $10,000,000,000 plus size hedge fund.
没错。
Correct.
因为他们得为农民，也为自己对冲大宗商品的价格风险。
Because they have to hedge com commodities, you know, on behalf of the farmers and for themselves as well at this point.
所以他们几乎什么都有，连矿山都拥有，因为他们需要自己获取生产这些产品所需的化学品和矿物。
So they own, like, a little bit of everything, including mines because they need to get their own chemicals and minerals to make all of these things.
这简直不可思议。
This is incredible.
没有知名的创始人。
No famous founder.
他们的办公室 famously 是湖中央一座像城堡一样的建筑，当地人管它叫‘湖边办公室’，你去谷歌一下就能看到。
You know, their office was famously this, like, chateau looking thing on a lake in the middle of nowhere, and, like, that was their it was called the lake office if you Google it.
那里特别安静。
And it's just quiet.
你懂的，人们总说钱会说话，但财富却是默默无声的？
You know, like, how they say, like, money talks, but wealth whispers?
这简直就是财富无声的典范。
This is this is wealth whispers shit.
你明白我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
那创始人是谁？
Like, who's the founder?
他长什么样？
What does he look like?
首席执行官是谁？
Who's the CEO?
他们平时聊些什么？
What do they talk about?
为什么他们从不上CNBC？
How come they're not on CNBC?
他们做播客吗？
Do they do podcasts?
不，他们从不做播客。
No, they don't do podcasts.
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
确实就是这样，低调但强势。
Like it is true, like quiet dominance.
其实长期以来，他们的策略就是保持低调，不惹人注意，好悄悄在物流行业建立起垄断地位。
And actually it was part of their strategy for a long time was to be quiet about it, just to not attract competition, and to build this monopoly position in the logistics industry.
这太酷了。
Dude, this is cool.
我早就见过他们的标志，每次看美国的私营企业，总能看到他们。
I've known, I've seen their logo, and whenever I look privately owned companies in America, it's always been there.
我一直搞不懂他们具体是做什么的，因为你说出来好像挺明白的，但其实就是那种B2B的生意。
I never understood what entirely they did because it's one of those things where you say what they do and it sort of makes sense, but it's like a B2B thing.
所以你其实也搞不太清楚他们具体是干嘛的。
So like, you don't entirely understand exactly what it does.
他们说卖什么，我一听就懵了，根本不知道那是什么意思。
They say like And they sell I'm like, I don't know what that means.
你知道吗？看起来是这么回事，但他们的年收入高达一千五百亿美元。
You know, that's so But when you look at the numbers, they do $150,000,000,000 a year in revenue.
这数字也太惊人了。
That's just so massive.
我敢打赌，他们还暗中掌控着更多你根本想不到的业务。
And I bet you that they like own so many more things that you wouldn't even realize.
比如，沃尔玛家族还拥有其他公司，你听说过Rafa吗？
Like, for example, like, the Walmart family owns, like have you heard of Rafa?
那是一家挺酷的直接面向消费者的自行车品牌。
It's like a cool bike D to C company.
他们拥有
They own
他们 owns 那个。
They own that.
他们就是那种专门搞收购的主儿。
Like, they just like they're just they're just like deal man.
他们啥都买。
They just own shit.
他们就上网站买一个，然后一直点加号，把数量加到
They just go to the website to buy one, and then they just keep pushing plus on quantity until they
全都买下。
own all
全部买走。
of them.
我们现在有了
Like, we now have
这种事，确实很像这个家族会干的，你根本想不到。
That to seems like something that this family would do is like, don't realize it.
如果你要往阴谋论的方向想，我可没做过任何研究，但我敢肯定，肯定有十来个特别有意思的阴谋论，说这个家族在背后操纵一切，好像他们有什么不可告人的事——不过这些全是我瞎编的。
And then if you wanted to get like conspiratorial, which I have not done any research on it, I'm sure that there's like 10 or 20 really interesting conspiracies about how that either they're pulling the strings behind, you know, it's like the there's something going on with this family, which I'm just making it up.
我真的一点都不知道。
I have no idea.
有位记者曾经把这家人形容为神秘、近亲繁殖又令人怀疑。
A journalist once described the family as secretive, inbred, and suspicious.
我加入。
I'm in.
嘿。
Hey.
我想跟你分享一个挺酷的东西。
Wanna tell you about something pretty cool.
我们整理了一个数据库，收录了这个播客里讨论过的所有商业点子。
We have a database of all of the business ideas that have been discussed on this podcast.
几百期节目，HubSpot 的团队一一梳理，挑出了所有简单、接地气、有意思又赚钱的创意，现在都可以免费下载。
So hundreds of episodes, the team at HubSpot went through, they pulled out all the simple, relatable, interesting, profitable ideas that we have brainstormed, and they're all available for download for free.
点击下方描述里的链接就行。
Just click the link in the description below.
感谢我们的合作伙伴HubSpot赞助本期播客，并为大家整理了这份免费资源。
Thank you to our friends at HubSpot for sponsoring this podcast and putting together this free resource for you guys.
继续回到节目。
Back to the show.
1980年，他们做了一项调查。
In 1980, they did a survey.
那时候，这家公司已经占据主导地位了，于是他们做了个调查。
And by then, it was already a dominant company, and they did a survey.
94%的农民都听说过嘉吉，但只有一半的人知道这家公司到底是做什么的。
94% of farmers had heard of Cargill, but only half of them knew what the company actually did.
而在政界人士、律师和记者这些所谓的意见领袖中，有一半人听说过他们，但只有10%的人清楚他们的业务是什么。
And then amongst politicians, lawyers, and journalists who they call opinion leaders, 50% have heard of them, but only 10% understood what the business was.
因为他们像你描述的那样，业务版图太过庞大，人们根本搞不清他们到底在做什么。
Because they have this sort of sprawling empire like you described, people don't really fully understand what they even do.
你就觉得他们很重要。
You just sort of know that they're important.
我有个朋友，我记得她是去了嘉吉工作，因为这家公司利润太高了，一直在投资一些新的种子、农业相关的直接面向消费者的项目。
I had a friend who, I think it was Cargill that she went and worked at because they obviously make so much profit that they were trying to invest in like new seed related, agriculture related, D2C.
比如说，我们之前聊过那个直接卖牛奶的D2C公司，他们就投了。
Like I think they invested, like we had talked about that one D2C milk company.
他们会关注这类有意思的东西，只要是新颖的就留意。
Like, they would look at things like that, like anything like interesting.
她说在那儿工作特别棒。
And she said it was awesome working for them.
她说那家公司真的很好。
She said it was a it was a great company.
当然了。
Well, definitely.
我笔记里有个部分叫‘阴暗面’。
There's a section called the dark side in my notes here.
那我来跟你说说那些不太光彩的事儿，这样才公平。
So let me just tell you some things from the dark side just to be be fair here.
像全球农作物生产这块，就难免会冒出一些指控，比如巴西或者科特迪瓦那边有人权问题，像童工之类的。
When you have, like, global crop production, you're gonna have this, which is, like, accusations of child labor, like, in Brazil or in, you know, Ivory Coast and things like that.
据说他们的情报能力比CIA还强，基本上围绕农作物建立了一套间谍网络。
They they're said to have better intelligence than the CIA, so they basically, they have a spy network of around crops.
所以他们能实时掌握全球农作物的状况，甚至比美国政府还清楚，毕竟这关系到他们的生死存亡。
So, like, they know more about the state of crops in real time than the US government does around the world because it's like life or death for their business.
你知道的，他们之前有过各种各样的大肠杆菌爆发之类的情况。
You know, they've had, like, different, like, E.
还有类似的事情。
Coli breakouts and stuff like that.
再说一遍，如果你接触了大部分食品供应，那么任何可能发生在食品上的坏事都会发生在你身上。
Again, if you're touching most of the food supply, then like anything bad that can happen in food is gonna happen to you.
人们通常觉得他们有垄断行为。
People just generally feel like they're monopolistic.
所以，他们真的关心工人的安全吗？
So, you know, they do they care about worker safety, number one?
大概不吧。
Probably not.
恐怕连前三都排不上。
Probably not in the top three
他们在乎的前三件事里，安全肯定不在其中。
top three days that they care about.
但他们都是中西部人。
But they're Midwesterners.
他们人 probably 很友善。
They they're probably really sweet.
不过
But
从一个小小的谷物仓库，到现在掌控美国谷物出口市场的百分之二十五，这简直太疯狂了。
it's crazy to go from, like, a single grain shed to now controlling 25% of the entire US export market for grains, and it's like pretty crazy.
他们这家公司是一百六十年前开始的。
So they're they it started a hundred and sixty years ago.
你和我最近刚做过一次分享，那时候我们聊到了各自的偏好。
You and I did a talk recently, and you were like we were explaining, like, some of our preferences.
你说你喜欢做项目。
You were like, I like projects.
你喜欢从零开始搞一个东西，然后可能把它卖出去。
I like starting something and then potentially selling it.
但我特别享受起步的阶段。
But, like, I love the starting phase.
我喜欢把它交出去，然后看着它可能走到终点，再开始新的东西。
I love handing it off to someone, and then I love it potentially ending and starting something new.
我还提到，我喜欢那些有可能持续五十年到一百年的事物。
And I was saying how I love things that could potentially go for fifty to a hundred years.
当然，我还没真做过这样的事。
Not that I've actually done that.
我也跟你一样，做过不少从零开始然后卖出去的项目。
I've actually done the same thing as you, projects starting and selling.
我对那些能持续这么长时间的公司特别着迷。
And I'm so fascinated by companies that can last this long.
尤其是这家，居然能整整一百六十年保持得这么好，真让人佩服。
And this one in particular is one that seems like they've kept it together pretty amazingly for a hundred and sixty years.
这简直不可思议。
That's crazy.
他们起步的时候连内战都还没爆发，现在还在运营。
So they started before the civil war, and it's still around.
这难道不让人惊叹吗？
Isn't that incredible?
我觉得这真的太吸引人了。
And I just find that so fascinating.
有时候我会想，等我死了，我干嘛还在乎留下什么遗产呢？
And like, part of me is like, well, when I die, like, why do I care about legacy?
我们经常聊到遗产这个问题。
Like we talk about legacy a lot.
前几天我读到一段话，有人问：你为什么在乎自己的遗产？
And I was reading something the other day and like, why the, or someone said to the like, why do you care about your legacy?
谁会在乎呢？
Like, who gives a shit?
人都死了。
You're dead.
我当时想，嗯，这个角度我也能理解。
And I was like, okay, yeah, I understand that perspective.
我们确实可以同时拥有这两种想法：一方面在意遗产，
Like we can have the dichotomy of caring about that.
另一方面，想想看，你创造的东西，一百五十年后还能养活十六万人，这得多酷啊。
And then also like, how cool would it be that the thing that you can create can employ 160,000 people one hundred and fifty years after you're gone?
说实话，我也说不好。
Like, I don't know.
我觉得这太棒了。
I think that's awesome.
我觉得这既浪漫又令人兴奋。
I think it's kind of romantic and exciting.
这就像是两个人都喜欢跑步，一个人想跑百米冲刺，另一个人却跑一百英里的超马。
It's kind of like two people can love running, and one person's trying to run the 100 meter dash, and the other person's running, one of these ultra marathon 100 mile races.
两人都会说，是啊，我就是爱跑步。
And they're both like, Yeah, I love running.
这正是我做的事。
And that's what I do.
在商业上也是一样，有不同的做法。
And that's kind of like in the business sense, there's different ways to approach it.
我称之为项目式打法，就是你心里清楚，这一辈子大概能有五次绝佳的机会。
There's what I call the projects approach, which is you kind of go in knowing like, hey, I'm gonna have like five great at bats in my career.
我希望每一次都能成为一段精彩的篇章，并且追求这些机会之间的多样性。
And I hope each one is a really fun chapter, and I'm gonna seek variety in those.
这有点像当个作家。
It's sort of like being an author.
你得花五年时间做研究、写书，然后休息一下，再重新来过。
You're like, all right, I got five years of research and writing and then a break, and then I do it again.
没错。
Exactly.
还有些人是一砖一瓦地打基础，慢慢建起自己的帝国。
And then there's other people that are brick by brick laying a foundation for an empire.
我尊重这两种方式，但我知道自己想选哪一种。
And, you know, I respect both, but I know which one I want to do.
我觉得你也清楚自己想选哪一种。
And I think you know which one you want to do too.
我觉得你想要的是那种，像建帝国一样的路。
I think you want the you want the, like, empire.
对。
Yeah.
我不确定自己有没有足够的毅力坚持到底，但我真的很喜欢最终的结果。
I don't know if I'm gonna have the grit to pull it off, but I for sure love the idea of the result.
你觉得做这种事的人，是性格上的差别吗？
Do you think the people who do this, is it a temperament difference?
比如他们天生就和别人不一样，就像快肌和慢肌的区别，是骨子里就决定了的？还是说你其实具备那种潜质，只是需要建立一套合适的体系？
Like, they're wired differently, therefore you know, fast fast twitch, slow twitch muscle type shit, where it's more of inherently who you are, or do you feel like you might have the base wiring to do it, but you then need to adopt the systems.
对吧？
Right?
比如，不可能是一个人单打独斗干了一百年。
Like, for example, it's not like one guy ran this for a hundred years.
然后传给儿子，儿子搞得一团糟。
Now he passed it to his son, his son kind of screws it up.
再下一代又从破产边缘给救了回来。
Then the next son sort of saves it out bankruptcy.
到现在，已经是职业经理人在管理了，但他们早就建立了一整套价值观、流程和管控机制。
And then by now professional CEOs run it, but they've instilled values and systems and like ownership controls.
但现在，那些错误其实是海洋生物学家在犯，他们干的完全是别的事。
But you know, now the the errors are marine biologists, and they're doing other things.
他们不再经营这家公司了，但公司这个实体却一直存在。
They're not running this company that that but the company, the entity lasts.
所以，你觉得你可能会在哪一步失败？
So which one where do you think you might fail?
是天生的资质问题，还是系统的问题？
Is it the wiring or the systems?
我觉得是天生的资质，人一开始就是那样的，但也不一定。
I think the wiring, you start off a certain way, but not always.
比如，很多人其实早就想卖了，只是没遇到合适的买家，最后只好放弃，心想：算了，继续干吧。
For example, I think there's a lot of them that would have sold if they could have, but the opportunity just didn't present itself and they just said, Screw it, I'll just keep going.
我觉得很多时候，会发生几种情况。
And then I think what happens a lot of times is a few things.
如果你从头开始创业，从来没想过要卖公司，那你可能会做一些很疯狂的事，让公司赚大钱，但同时也变得根本没法卖。
Like if you had to build a business and you never thought about selling, there's a world where you would do some wacky stuff that would make the business incredibly profitable, but incredibly not sellable.
比如你会收购一些资产或公司，这些东西对某个特定买家来说根本说不通。
Like you would acquire assets or businesses that don't entirely make sense to one particular buyer.
然后你变得足够大，大到你自己都忍不住说：天啊，这堆东西杂七杂八的，虽然对我们有用，但根本不会有哪个买家愿意全盘接手。
And then you get big enough to the point where you're like, Esk, this is a And hodgepodge of it works for us, but no one buyer would ever actually take this.
所以我觉得，很多时候问题其实出在家庭身上。
So like, but then I also think that it comes down a lot to the family.
我觉得家庭会议这事儿挺特别的。
And I think that there's something special around family meetings.
我们之前请过罗布·迪德里希来做客。
We've had Rob Diedrich on here.
他就提到过这个。
He talked about that.
我其实也在Instagram上关注了一些人，他们经常聊家庭会议的事。
I actually follow some people on Instagram and they talk about like family meetings.
你具体是什么意思？
Explain what you mean.
家庭会议到底是什么意思？
What is what's a family meeting?
我小时候的经历，可能跟你差不多，也跟很多美国人一样——父母从来不跟你谈钱。
So the way that I grew up is probably very similar to the way potentially you grew up, but the way a lot of Americans grew up, which is your parents never talk to you about money.
如果你问他们：‘你们赚多少钱？’
If you asked them like, how much do you make?
他们就会说：‘这不关你的事。’
They would say like, that's none of your business.
那时候家里根本没什么透明度。
And there was very little transparency.
也很少有人会明确地告诉你：我对你的期望是什么。
And there was probably very little culture creation in terms of like, here's explicitly my expectations of you.
我们家的价值观是什么。
Here's our family's culture.
我们家的文化是什么。
Here's our values.
我最近学到的，也是我特别认同的一点，就是定期召开家庭会议——每个月、每个季度，或者每年一次，把孩子和所有家庭成员聚在一起。
And what I've been learning about, and frankly what I like, is this idea of a family meeting where you get the children and everyone in the same room monthly, quarterly, annually, something like that.
就像开董事会一样，家庭会议也要明确我们所坚持的价值观。
And in the same way you run a board meeting, you run a family meeting where you say like, here's the values that we stand for.
回顾一下上个季度、上个月，我们当初设定的目标完成得怎么样。
Here's how we did last quarter, last month, according to what we said we wanted to achieve.
那未来呢？
And what about the future?
你们希望做些什么？
What would you guys like to do?
咱们来好好聊聊这个。
Let's con let's talk about this.
这是我们可以用来实现你们梦想和想法的资金。
And here's the money that we have to spend on whatever dreams and ideas that you have.
我们一起来看看，这些计划是否符合我们家庭的准则和使命。
And let's discuss if it fits within our family credo and mission.
其实是有办法做到的。
And there's actually like a way to do that.
我希望能和我的家人一起这么做。
And I aspire to do that with my family.
我家人一直
My family always
比如做会议记录，像董事会观察员那样。
like taking minutes, taking meeting minutes, a board observer.
我只是觉得
I just think
把事情说清楚特别重要。
there's something special about being explicit about stuff.
很多人小时候都会有这样的经历：我们从来没认真谈过某件事，但我心里其实是这么想的。
I think that a lot of times when you're growing up, there's these things that you say, well, we never really talked about blank, but my feeling was this.
没错。
Right.
但我希望体验的是，我们能直接说清楚：我们打算做什么、怎么去做，以及需要哪些资源来完成，然后好好聊聊。
But what I would like to experience is like saying like, we are actually going to speak what we intend to do and how we will do it and what resources we have to get it done, and we'll have a conversation.
我觉得，那些能做到这一点的家庭，真的很特别。
And I think there's something very special about the families who pull that off.
是的，我完全同意。
Yeah, I totally agree.
我觉得这是明确表达和心照不宣的区别。
I think it's explicit versus implicit.
并不是说，别提这件事。
So it's not even like, don't talk about that.
而是根本就没说出来。
It's more just it didn't get said.
对吧？
Right?
没说出来，也不是因为有什么恶意或者想隐瞒。
And it doesn't get said not for malicious or secretive reasons.
就是我们太忙了。
It's just we were busy.
我自己也说不清楚。
I don't know myself.
你知道吗？
What you know?
说实话，这些问题我也没法完全答上来，索性就不去想了。
It's like, I'm not sure I really know the answer to all these things, and it's easier just not even think about it.
对吧？
Right?
如果你问别人：你到底想要什么？
It's like if you ask somebody, well, what do you really want?
你看，大家立马就不知所措了。
Watch people just immediately just start to flounder.
可这其实是个很简单的问题。
And it's such a simple question.
你不觉得你该清楚自己真正想要什么吗？
Don't you think you should know what you really want?
每次认识新朋友，我想让他们觉得我在意他们，听起来可能有点算计，但我的本意其实是想了解对方，所以我会问：‘未来六个月，你生活中、事业上或者家庭方面，有什么特别想实现的事吗？’
When I'm meeting new people and I wanna make them feel like I care about them, well, it sounds like I'm being nefarious, but I mean, like I'm trying to like get to know someone, I'm like, Hey, in the next six months, anything interesting you wanna get done in life or career or family wise?
很多时候，对方都会说：‘我不知道。’
And they'll be, and half the time people are like, I don't know.
但其实那一刻，他们是在对话中慢慢发现自己真正想要什么，这过程还挺让人兴奋的。
And it's like the conversation is them discovering it, and it's kind of exciting.
是的，就是这样。
Yeah, exactly.
所以我觉得坦诚表达很重要，我和你一样，是个话多的人。
So I think being explicit, I'm like you, I'm an over communicator.
我愿意承担话多带来的负面效果，因为好处实在太多了。
I'll take the negatives that come with that because I think the positives are so overwhelming.
不过，怎么在家庭里做到这一点，倒挺有意思的。
But how do you do it in a family is kind of interesting.
我去朋友家，他墙上挂了个徽章。
I was at a friend's house and he has this like crest on the wall.
他说：‘这是我们家的族徽家徽。’
And he's like, oh, that's our like family crest.
我当时就说：‘哎，我们家可没有这种东西。’
And I was like, oh, like my family, we didn't have one.
我猜我祖上是漏掉了这事儿。
Like, I guess my ancestors dropped the ball.
他回我说：‘不是，这个是我们自己设计的。’
He's like, no, like we made this.
我五年前画的，后来我们就这么定了。
I painted that like five years ago, and we just decided.
我们一家人到底看重什么？
What are we all about?
徽章上分了四个部分。
There's four quadrants on the crest.
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我们就定了，是这个、这个、这个，还有这个，
And we said, it's this, this, this, and this, and
这就是
this is
我们的徽章。
our sigil.
那是我们的图腾。
That's our animal.
我觉得太棒了。
I love that.
我当时就想，这也能行？
And I was like, you could just do that?
你随便就能搞个大学？
You could just be a university?
那我现在是不是也能自称霍格沃茨？
Like, I could be Hogwarts right now?
什么鬼？
The hell?
我回家后就想，天啊，我也要开始搞这些东西了。
And I came home and I was like, shit, I'm gonna start doing stuff like this.
我还没做出家徽，但已经为每个孩子做了些别的东西。
And so I actually haven't made the crest, but I have done a few other things like I gave for each of my kids.
他们每个人都有自己的做事风格，比如‘萨姆式风格’。
They have like a way, it'd be like Sam's way.
比如我一个孩子常说：试试看，自己想办法解决。
So for example, one of my kids, it's one of them says, Try, try and figure it out.
哦，这就是萨姆式风格。
Oh, that's the Sam way.
我这话说了太多遍，现在最让我骄傲的时刻，就是他突然说：我这可是按萨姆式风格办的。
And I've said that so many times that now the great father moment is when he'll just be like, Well, I just did it the Sam way.
他用这句话当简语，意思就是：我没放弃。
And he's using it as shorthand for like, I didn't give up.
我试了又试，直到搞明白为止。
I tried, tried until I figured it out.
我女儿的那句不一样。
And my daughter has a different one.
这真美。
That's really beautiful.
然后我们
And then we
还有一个是关于天赋的。
have one that's like for like the idea of gifts.
我跟他们说，每个人都有与生俱来的天赋。
So I told them, I was like, was like, yeah, like everybody has like some gifts that you were given.
我儿子特别喜欢宝可梦这类东西。
And my son loves, like, Pokemon and things like that.
所以他能理解，就像超人有超能力一样，他看的每个角色都有自己的特殊本领。
So he kinda understands the idea that, like, super you have a superpower, and, like, every every character he watches in a show has, like, a special power.
我就说，对啊。
I'm like, yeah.
你也一样有啊。
Like, well, you have one too.
他问：真的吗？
He's like, really?
我的是什么？
What's mine?
我就跟他说，你的就是这个。
And I'm like, well, yours is that you're this.
我只是宣布一下，给他们一个值得追求的名声。
And I just get to declare, I give them a reputation to live up to.
你知道的，他们现在还不太稳定，但偶尔会有表现。
You know, one that they're today quite inconsistent in, but there's moments.
我做的就是抓住那些时刻，加以强调。
And all I do is I just highlight those moments.
我假装那些不一致根本不存在。
I pretend the inconsistencies don't exist.
我就一直强化这个印象，直到它变成他们的自我认同。
And I just keep reinforcing that until it's their identity.
我针对每个人单独这么做。
And I do that for each of them individually.
然后有个问题就是，我让其中一个听起来太完美了。
And then one of the downsides is like, I make one sound so good.
我就想，我能不能也说另一个同样优秀？
I'm like, can I just say that the other one has the same?
不然感觉就没那么特别了。
Because then it feels less special.
我得给另一个也同样的待遇，但说实话，这有点难把握。
I have to give the other one equally those, but you can also do you know, it's a little tricky.
虽然不完美，但这招真管用。
It's not perfect, but man, this shit works.
这真的非常有效。
It is really powerful.
还有一种完全跟生意无关的做法，就是先在家庭里培养一种家族传承的文化，然后再去考虑怎么在公司里做。
And so there's a version of that that's completely non business related, but in creating this like family dynasty idea of how do you instill a culture first in the home before you ever try to go do it, you know, in the office.
我觉得有谁的孩子真想进父母的公司，可能性其实很低。
And I think the likelihood that anyone's children ever want to work in their business is very low.
就算真发生了，一家人还能相处融洽，那简直是个奇迹。
And so like, if that even happens, I think, they get along, that's like a miracle.
我注意到，这一点特别重要。
And so what I've noticed, that is important.
还要建立长期的信任。
Also creating long term trust.
我跟赫斯特公司聊过这个，他们旗下有《GQ》这样的知名杂志，但还拥有一百多家你根本没听说过的公司。
So I talked about this a little bit with the Hearst organization, Hearst Company, which owns like GQ, it's like a famous magazine they own, but they also own like 100 businesses that you've never even heard of.
他们甚至还持有ESPN一半的股份之类的。
And they, including like, they own half of ESPN or whatever.
威廉·伦道夫·赫斯特的一项重要创举，就是建立了一个非常稳固的家族信托，着眼于长远规划。
And one of William Randolph Hearst, one of his great inventions, was he created this trust within the family that was pretty ironclad, and it was very long term thinking.
你说的信托，是法律意义上的信托吗？
Trust like a actual legal trust, or you mean trust Yes.
就是那种
Like a
法律信托。
Legal trust.
比如对他来说，这条规定就是：谁要是敢质疑这个信托，就直接取消继承权。
So for example, for him, it was like, you cannot dispute this trust, and if you do dispute it, you're out of the will.
这个信托的核心条款是，赫斯特家族——我记不清具体数字了——但理论上会保留八个董事会席位。
And like the trust basically just says that like Hearst, I forget the exact number, but Hearst hypothetically will have eight board seats.
家族成员始终占两个席位。
Family members are always two.
你不能对拿到的钱数提出异议。
I think it was like, you cannot argue with how much money you receive.
钱是平均分配的。
Money is given out equally.
如果你想多拿利润，别想争辩。
If you want more profits, you cannot argue about it.
只要你一争辩，就滚出家门。
If you do argue about it, you're out.
就是这种规定。
Like things like that.
他做的这些安排，确实让家族事业能长久延续。
Like he did these things that were quite good in terms of like making it last for a long time.
约翰·洛克菲勒也是这么做的。
Same with John Rockefeller.
他用的也是同样的办法。
He did that the same way.
读约翰·洛克菲勒的传记，你会发现他是个疯狂的商人。
One of the great things about reading about John Rockefeller, he was this madman businessman.
想想杰夫·贝佐斯。
Think of Jeff Bezos.
表面上挺礼貌，但骨子里是个狠角色。
A polite guy, but like a ruthless businessman.
他儿子也叫约翰，是个特别称职的父亲。
His son, John, also John, he was a great dad.
这两个人都很了不起。
They were both great.
他是个好父亲，也是个好儿子，父子俩彼此深爱，互相尊重。
He was a great dad and a great son, and they loved each other very much, and they showed a lot of mutual respect.
我注意到，很多这类成功背后，靠的都是相互尊重。
And so what I'm noticing about a lot of this stuff, it's built on mutual respect.
靠的是赋予权力，以及开诚布公地沟通。
It's built about empowering and having these very explicit conversations.
读完他们的故事，这是我最大的收获。
And that was a big takeaway from reading about them.
是的，这挺有意思的。
Yeah, it's interesting.
你得找到这样的模式。
You gotta find like these blueprints.
这其实跟我之前问你关于长期规划时想的东西是一回事。
It's kind of what I went back to when I was asking you about like the long term thing.
你得了解自己的特质，知道哪些事情对你来说天然容易，对别人却很难，也要清楚哪些地方是你短板，得想办法弥补，要么自己补上，要么找身边的人来互补。
Like you have to get to know your wiring to know where you're gonna naturally have things come easier to you that are difficult for others, and other areas that are gonna be difficult for you, and you better figure out how you're gonna work around it, either by patching up those weaknesses or getting people around you who complement those.
然后你还得搞懂那些系统性的方法。
And then you gotta learn the systems, you know, on top of it.
比如，有哪些习惯？
Like what are the habits?
要达成你想要的结果，背后具体有哪些操作体系？
What are the actual systems on top of that to get the results I want?
但这里面还有一个变数。
But then there's like a wild card.
比如，我有个亿万富翁朋友，他儿子是个无家可归的毒瘾患者。
Like for example, I have a billionaire friend whose son is a homeless drug addict.
他们试过很多次想把这个孩子引上正轨，最后实在没办法，只能放手让他自己摸索。
Like they've tried numerous times to get this kid on the right path to the point where they're like, we're either, we just gotta let you figure it out.
不幸的是，这可能会要了他的命，情况非常棘手且令人痛心。
Unfortunately that might mean death, like it's a very challenging, tragic situation.
家族徽章
The family crest
没帮上忙？
didn't help?
对。
Yeah.
挺疯狂的。
Like, it's pretty crazy.
你可以……我想想，怎么说来着？
You could have, I think what's the phrase?
你是最开心的那个，但却是你所有孩子中最不快乐的？
You're the happiest of your saddest kid?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你有多快乐，取决于你最不快乐的那个孩子。
You're only as happy as your saddest child.
没错。
Yeah.
喂。
Hey.
咱们休息一下吧。
Let's take a quick break.
你有没有那种感觉？策略定了，简报写好了，大家都达成一致了，结果你突然意识到，还是得有人坐下来把所有内容实际做出来。
You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, everyone's aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create all the content?
那个人通常就是你，而且明天就要交了。
That someone is usually you, and it's due tomorrow.
不过，HubSpot的Breeze助手可以帮上忙。
Well, the Breeze assistant from HubSpot can help.
它直接集成在HubSpot里使用。
It works right inside HubSpot.
你可以用你品牌的语气，结合真实的客户数据，起草营销文案、博客文章、邮件等等。
You can draft campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice, all using your actual customer data.
所以你做的不只是内容。
So you don't create just content.
你做的是能带来转化的内容。
You create content that converts.
去hubspot.com看看吧，这是助力增长的智能客户平台。
Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing I
我刚才还聊了一通，关于那些我们常说的话，为什么它们特别重要，就是我们对自己说的那些话。
went on this rant about like phrases, and why they're really important, the phrases we tell ourselves.
比如，你老说‘反正都这样了’，明明今天已经吃坏了，索性再吃点。
So for example, like using the phrase like, I might as well, where it's like, well, I've already eaten bad today, I might as well eat.
不，你别这样。
Like, no, you.
这不过是个找借口的说法。
That's just a convenient phrase.
你真不该用‘反正都这样了’来安慰自己。
You should not might as well do that.
或者
Or
我最喜欢的一句是‘没办法，就这样吧’。
It is what it is is my is my my favorite one.
‘没办法，就这样吧’等于彻底放弃掌控，放弃主动权，什么都不要了。
It is what it is is the is the the complete surrender of of of power, of agency, of anything.
没办法，就这样吧。
It is what it is.
不如直接说：这件事由我来定义。
Just replace it with just say, it is what I make of this.
然后你就说：好吧。
So then you say, alright.
那我打算怎么看待这件事呢？
Well, what am I gonna make of this?
你知道的。
You know?
就是，事情就是这样。
Like, it is what it is.
这太荒谬了。
It's crazy.
我得告诉你一个词，你最近肯定到处都能看到，而且你得留意一下。
Can I tell you about a phrase that you're unfortunately need to know about and you're gonna see everywhere online?
我也想给这个词换个说法。
I also wanna rebrand it.
这个现象叫杰文斯悖论。
So this thing, it's called the Jevon's paradox.
你听说过杰文斯悖论吗？
Have you heard of the Jevon's paradox?
这根本算不上什么悖论。
It's not even a paradox.
真正的悖论，比如：上帝能不能造出一个热到连他自己都吃不了的炸玉米饼？
A paradox means like, an example of a paradox is like, can God heat a burrito so hot that even He can't eat it?
这其实更像
Like, this is more like
那个悖论是什么？
What is that paradox
里卡多悖论？
The Ricard's paradox?
那个才是真正的悖论。
That's a paradox.
这根本就不是什么悖论。
This isn't even a paradox.
这其实就是一种经济规律。
This is just like an economic principle.
明白了，明白了。
Okay, okay.
我来念一下原版定义。
Here, let me read the actual definition.
这是一种经济规律，说的是当技术让某种资源的使用变得更高效时，这种资源的总消耗量反而会上升，而不是下降。
An economic principle stating that as technology makes use of a resource more efficiently, the total consumption of that resource actually increases rather than decreases.
所以当某样东西变得更高效了，你可能会觉得用得少了，但事实上因为需求暴增，总的用量反而大得多。
Okay, so as something becomes more efficient, you would think you're using less of it because you're being more efficient, but in total, you use way more of it because the demand explodes.
好，你继续说。
Okay, go ahead.
我可以给你举一大堆例子。
And I'll give you a ton of examples.
我想把它重新命名为杰文斯悖论，因为
I want to rebrand it to Jevon's paradox because
给它加点味道。
Give it a little flavor.
对。
Yeah.
这是因为一个叫詹姆斯·杰文斯的英国人提出的理论。
Well, because it was created by this guy named James Jevon, who was a British guy.
我觉得要是有个这么棒的经济原理是由一位美国兄弟提出的，那就太棒了。
And I think that it'd be cool to have a wonderful economic principle being created by an American brother.
所以我想让它成为我们自己的，而不是他们的。
So I want it to be one of ours, not one of theirs.
大约在19世纪中期，詹姆斯·瓦特发明了这么一样新东西。
So right around the mid-1800s, James Watt creates this new thing.
这是一种新型的蒸汽机，也就是后来大家熟知并喜爱的那种蒸汽机。
It's a new variation of the steam engine, which is basically the steam engine that like everyone came to love and know.
詹姆斯·杰文斯就是19世纪的这么一个人。
James Jevon was basically this guy in the 1800s.
他在1865年写了一本书，叫《煤炭问题》。
He wrote a book in 1865 called The Coal Question.
他说，他觉得因为这个新蒸汽机实在太厉害了，英国可能很快就把便宜的煤全用光了，到时候就麻烦了。
And he basically says, I have a feeling that because of how amazing this new steam engine is, that Britain potentially is gonna get rid of all of our cheap coal, and we're gonna have a problem.
我们会面临煤炭短缺，可别人都说：你在胡说什么？
We're gonna have a coal shortage because everyone else was like, what are you talking about?
蒸汽机让效率大大提高。
The steam engine makes things significantly more efficient.
所以，需要完成的工作总量其实是固定的。
Therefore, like, there's only a set amount of work needs to get done.
按理说，我们用的煤应该更少才对。
Like, we're just gonna use less coal.
可他却说：不对，兄弟。
And he goes, no, brother.
那根本不可能发生。
That ain't gonna happen.
我们会用掉多得多的煤，因为每个人都想要一台这样的蒸汽机。
We're gonna use way more coal because everyone's gonna want one of these steam engines.
他完全说对了。
And he was exactly right.
事情接下来变得特别诡异，这正是我想聊的重点。
And this is where things get really freaky, and this is actually what I want to talk about.
它的扩张程度是你根本想象不到的。
It expands in a way that you cannot even comprehend.
我来给你举个简单的例子。
So And let me give you a really simple example.
伊莱·惠特尼，他是耶鲁大学的一个人，心想我要发财。
Eli Whitney, he was this guy from Yale and he was like, I want to make it rich.
我有个点子。
I have this idea.
于是他去了美国南部。
So he goes down to the South Of America.
那时候，奴隶们采摘棉花，得花好几个小时把棉籽从棉絮里挑出来，一个人一天最多只能处理出一磅能用的棉花。
At the time, slaves would pick cotton and they would get cotton and it would take them hours to separate the seed from the cotton to the point where they could only produce about a pound a day of cotton that was usable, one person.
他发明了一个小巧的手动装置，把棉花放进去，转动手柄，就能把棉籽分离出来，一个人一天能处理五十磅棉花。
And he comes up with this little handheld device where you can kind of like put cotton in there and kind of cranks it and it gets the seeds out to the point where one slave could produce 50 pounds of cotton.
效率一下子提高了五十倍。
They made it 50 times more efficient.
有些人反而觉得有点高兴，虽然这听起来有点奇怪。
And so some people were kind of happy in a weird way.
他们想，也许这能减缓奴隶制的扩张，不用再进口更多奴隶了。
They thought, okay, maybe this might mean slavery won't continue to grow and that like, we won't import more slaves.
这听起来似乎是个好事。
That's kind of that's kind of good.
但结果恰恰相反。
The exact opposite happened.
接下来的三四十年里，棉花变得便宜到极点，尤其是在美国南方的密西西比州——那里奴隶制后来变得尤其残酷——人们干脆管它叫‘棉花国王’，而不是‘国王乔治’。
Over the next, like, thirty, forty, fifty years, cotton got so cheap that in the South Of America, particularly in Mississippi, where a lot of like slavery eventually got really bad, they actually started calling it King Cotton instead of King George.
于是，棉花成了美国最重要的出口商品，需求暴涨，为了跟上这股热潮，我们不得不引进的奴隶数量，是伊莱·惠特尼发明机器之前的好八到十倍。
And so America's best export was cotton, and it got so strong that we had to import like eight to 10 times more slaves than we currently had at that point pre Eli Whitney in order to keep up with all this demand for cotton.
有人会说，美国奴隶制之所以拖了那么久，正是因为棉花的需求，这也是它成为经济引擎的关键原因之一。
And one could argue that the reason why slavery in America lasted as long as it did was because of cotton and the demand, and that's one of the reasons why it was like our economic engine.
这种矛盾现象，其力量之强，不容忽视。
And so this thing, this idea of this paradox, it's quite strong.
那为什么现在提这个很重要？因为眼下，有什么产品正被人工智能大幅提高效率？
And so the reason why it's relevant right now is because what's one product that AI is making significantly more efficient?
代码。
Code.
以前，写代码的成本高得吓人。
Previously, code was very expensive to make.
所以你得从风投那里筹一大笔钱。
So you have to raise all of this money from venture capital.
你得雇一堆工程师。
You have to hire all these engineers.
你得把产品做出来。
You've got to make stuff.
希望三五年甚至十年后，这段代码能正常运行并带来利润。
And hopefully three, five, ten years that code is actually working and makes a profit.
杰文斯悖论在这里就体现出来了，我的看法是这样的。
Well, Jevon's paradox, it comes into play here because my opinion is this.
很多人说人工智能会让很多人失业。
A lot of people are saying that AI is going to put people out of work.
但我认为恰恰相反，代码的成本会大幅下降。
I think it is the exact I believe that code will get more cheap.
这样一来，代码的使用量会激增到我们根本想象不到的程度。
Therefore, will increase a significant amount to the point that we can't even understand.
比如，古腾堡发明了印刷机。
For example, Gutenberg invented the printing press.
他发明印刷机的时候，人们以为大家读书的数量可能会变成原来的两倍、三倍，甚至五倍。
When he invented the printing press, people were thinking, you know, maybe people will read like two times, three times, five times more books than they're reading now.
而古腾堡这个人，大概是在15世纪发明了印刷机。
And Gutenberg, this guy, creates this printing press, I believe in the 1400s.
从这个发明延伸出来的极端例子，就是Kindle这样的设备。
And the offspring of that, like on the extreme end, is this idea of the Kindle.
甚至可以说，像在电脑屏幕上读文字，已经比纸质书走得更远了。
One could even argue that like reading text on a page, like on a computer screen is like way further down.
但结果并没有让书的阅读量翻五倍。
But like it didn't make five times more books.
而是变得无穷无尽。
It made like, it's infinite.
不是增加了十倍，而是彻底改变了局面。
It doesn't create like 10 times more.
它创造的不是量的提升，而是一个全新的东西。
It's like, it creates a whole new thing.
我注意到，棉花加工机就是这样的情况。
What I have noticed, I have noticed this with the cotton gin.
蒸汽机的发明也是，本杰明用它推动了铁路建设，给美国带来了巨大的繁荣。
I've noticed this with the creation of the steam engine, which Ben went to create the railroads, which created a massive boom in America.
当技术让原本就有需求的产品变得更高效时，直接受影响的人就会陷入混乱。
When technology makes a product that already has some demand more efficient, there is turmoil amongst those who are directly impacted.
你听说过卢德分子吗？
For example, have you ever heard of the Luddites?
是的。
Yeah.
就是那些不接受新技术的人？
People who don't adopt technology?
对。
Yeah.
现在这个词已经变成骂人的话了。
So now it's used as an insult.
那时候可不是这样。
Back then it wasn't.
卢德派的历史大致发生在工业革命时期，当时发明了一种机器，能比以前快得多地把羊毛纺成纱线。
So the history of the Luddites is basically right around when in the Industrial Revolution, there was a machine invented that allowed people to weave cotton, sorry, wool into yarn much faster.
以前，英国光是手工纺纱的人就有五六十万，他们都被视为工匠。
Previously, was like five or 800,000 people in England who did this by hand and they were considered craftsmen.
这台新机器一出现，这些人就丢了饭碗，甚至干脆编出一个叫内德·卢德的虚构人物。
This new machine comes in, they get put out of business to the point they create a fake character called Ned Ludd.
于是这群人就在英国四处砸毁这些新机器，搞得生产流程一片混乱，他们声称——
And in England, this group of people go around smashing these new machines, and it starts ruining the process of creating this new, like, wall to the And they point were
是替内德·卢德出头。
like, on behalf of Ned Ludd.
对吧？
Right?
这人根本不存在，你去砸他算怎么回事？
Like, this this a person that you couldn't attack cause he wasn't real.
那是个虚构的人物。
It was a fake person.
事情严重到在英国，这可是死罪。
And it was so serious that it was a capital punishment in England.
要是被抓到砸机器，直接就处死。
So if you got caught breaking one of these machines, they would put you to death.
所以，有五十万到八十万的人愿意拿性命去阻止新技术，这就是卢德运动的由来。
And so this idea of like, there was like 500 or 800,000 people who are willing to risk their lives in order to ruin new technology, that's like the history of Luddites.
我想说的是，每当出现新技术，总有一部分人会遭殃。
But my point being is when there is a new creation, there is a subset of people that are screwed.
比如上世纪七十年代，美国淘汰了人工接线台，当时有将近八十万名电话接线员，大多是女性，瞬间就没了工作。
For example, when switchboards went away in America, in the 1970s, was like 800,000 telephone operators, mostly women, that they didn't exist.
那些岗位彻底消失了。
Those jobs didn't exist.
但总的来说，更高效的技术往往会创造新的工作机会，有时是因为需求增长了。
But in general, more technology that creates a more efficient process creates new jobs, sometimes because of increased demand.
有时候，另一点是，新的产业出现了，我们甚至都想象不到。
Sometimes, the other thing is that because there's new industries created that we can't even comprehend.
所以我的看法变了，我觉得人工智能最终会带来净收益，而不是净损失，这和我以前的想法不一样。
And so my opinion, AI is actually gonna create a net positive, not a net negative, which I previously thought.
首先，这段独白太精彩了。
First of all, excellent monologue.
内容充实，听得特别过瘾。
Highly informed, highly entertained.
我真的很享受这段分享。
I I enjoyed that.
你之前跟我说，你正在读关于工业革命的书，想弄明白历史虽然不会重复，但总是有相似之处。
This you told me you were reading about the Industrial Revolution because you were trying to figure out, like, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
过去到底发生了什么？
What happened in the past?
我们当时是怎么说的？
What did we say?
那时候我们是怎么想的？
What did we think then?
这跟我们现在说的、想的像吗？
Does that sound like what we say and think now?
那实际上发生了什么？
And what actually happened?
对啊。
Yeah.
比如十年前或十五年前出过一本现在又火起来的书，我之前读过，叫《美国往事》。
Like one that came out like ten or fifteen years ago that's now popular again that I read a while ago is called Americana.
它讲的是美国资本主义的突破，比如各种发明。
And it goes through breakthroughs in American capitalism, so like different inventions.
你会发现，人们的担忧一直都很相似。
And you'll notice that people have the same fears consistently.
那我问你个别的问题。
So let me ask you a different question.
做生意最危险的事之一，就是觉得‘这次不一样了’。
One of the most dangerous things in business is to think, well, this time it's different.
这种话特别危险。
Those are very dangerous words.
这次不一样了。
This time it's different.
但如果说‘这回肯定跟上次一样’，也同样危险。
However, it's also dangerous to say, it'll be just like last time.
你得把这两种可能性都认真想想。
You have to almost consider both possibilities.
我可不是这么说的。
I'm not saying that, by the way.
我的意思是，人性就是人性，每周工作三十到六十小时这个模式，几百年来一直如此，自有它的特殊性。
What I'm saying is that human nature is human nature, and there's something special about the thirty to sixty hour a week work week that has happened for centuries.
而且，反复出现的一个想法，我总是会回到这一点上。
And also time and time again, there's this idea that I always come back to.
我以前养过蜜蜂。
I used to be a beekeeper.
蜜蜂特别有意思。
And bees are really interesting.
养蜜蜂的时候，只要你有一个蜂箱，一组蜜蜂，你就不断往上叠加蜂箱。
With bees, if you get one hive with one set of bees, you just stack that over and over and over again.
蜜蜂会把空间填满。
Bees fill up space.
它们就是会把空间填满。
They just fill up space.
同样的道理，每个人搬进新家的时候，都会经历这种情况。
And the same way, whenever you've gotten a new home, anyone has experienced this.
他们刚搬进新家的时候。
They get to this new home.
之前他们住的才一千平方英尺。
They previously only had a thousand square foot.
他们搬进了两千平方英尺的房子。
They get to a 2,000 square foot.
他们心里想：这地方这么大，我永远都填不满。
They say to themselves, I'm never gonna fill this place.
可神奇的是，三年后他们却纳闷：我怎么会有这么多杂物？
And then magically, over the next three years, they go, How do I have so much junk?
这种人类想要扩张、成长、填满空间的本能，是与生俱来的。
That is a, like the human need to expand, to grow, to fill space is innate.
这种本能永远不会消失。
It does not go away.
所以我才说，每一次都是这样，一模一样。
And so that is what I'm saying is the same every single time.
不是方式的问题。
Not the how.
我也不知道这事儿具体会怎么发生。
I don't know how this is gonna happen.
我这段话的重点就在于，我不知道具体会怎样，但我确信它一定会发生。
That's sort of the point of my monologue is that I don't know, but I know it will happen.
对。
Yeah.
别说得太抽象了，但我还是有个地方没想明白——虽然我完全认同你刚才说的。
And not to be too abstract here, but the one thing I don't get or the one thing I haven't figured out with with that, buy everything you said.
新的需求一定会被创造出来。
All this new demand will get created.
我们会需要在以前根本不需要代码的地方写代码。
We'll want we'll want code in places we didn't have code.
没错，这样确实能提高效率，但总体来看，代码总量会多得多，写代码的人也会多得多。
So, yeah, it'll be more efficient to get code, but net net, you're gonna have way more code, way more people creating code.
如果AI真能这么厉害地做事，那它本质上就是一种做工作的技术，一种通用的人类工作替代技术。
In this case, if AI is so good at doing things, like AI is a technology that basically is the technology of doing work, like generic work, human work.
它就像是对人脑的一种模拟。
It's like basically a model of the brain.
谁说AI不会也去填补这些岗位呢？
Like who's to say that AI won't also fill those jobs?
我的意思是，没错，它创造了这么多需求，带来了新的工作机会和新行业。
Meaning like, yes, it creates all this demand, which creates new job opportunities, new industries.
但谁又能确定，AI本身不会同时成为这些需求的供给方呢？
But who's to say that AI also isn't the one who supplies that demand also?
因为你看，印刷机这类技术比较死板，只能做一件事。
Because, you know, the printing press, these were more rigid technology that could do one thing.
AI的特别之处在于，它是个灵活的通用工具，能干好多事。
AI is weird in that it's this like flexible general thing that can do so many things.
所以，凭什么说它不会也变成供给方呢？
So who's to say it doesn't also become the supply?
这个问题可以从几个角度来看。
There's a few ways to look at this.
第一种看法是，你可以想，这会不会像热水一样？
The first is like, you could say, well, is this gonna be like hot water?
比如，当热水普及的时候，每天都能像国王一样洗澡，这简直太不可思议了。
So for example, when hot water was invented, this idea that you could like take showers every day like a king, like that was incredible.
于是热水迅速普及，美国每家每户都装上了热水器。
And so hot water surged, and water heaters were put in every home in America.
但你知道后来怎么样了吗？
But you know what happened?
我们慢慢弄清楚了自己到底需要多少热水。
We sort of figured out how much hot water we need.
其实今天我们需要的热水量，比五十年前少多了。
Like, we don't actually need that much hot water today than we did like fifty years ago.
所以一开始猛增，后来就稳定下来了，对吧？
So it took off and then it kind of got flat, right?
另一个例子是电力。
But another example is electricity.
电力刚出现的时候，几乎成了衡量生活的基础单位——只要物理上可能实现的事，总能找到用电的方式来做到。
When electricity was invented, it basically became like a base unit of measurement for life, Where if physics dictate if physics if it can exist in physics, there's a way that you can uniquely use electricity to make it happen.
我觉得代码可能会变成这样，成为一种衡量标准，你能用它找到无限种方法来完成你需要做的事。
I think potentially code is going to be like that, where it's going to be a unit of measurement where you can find infinite ways to get done what you need to get done.
我不觉得它会像水那样，到了某个时候我们就觉得够了。
And I do not think that it's going to be like water, where it's gonna be like, all right, we figured it out.
我们其实不需要比以前多得多的热水。
We don't really need that much more hot water.
那为什么你提到的是代码，而不是智能呢？
Well, why are you saying code instead of like intelligence?
说实话，我就是在试着理清这个思路。
I'm just kind of working through this, to be honest.
我还在琢磨，但我在想，这就像一个基本单位。
Like, I'm I'm still like but I was trying to think of like, that's like a unit.
智能这东西，我不清楚该怎么去量化。
Intelligence is I don't understand how to, like, quantify it.
但你现在可能会觉得这个想法挺有意思。
But now this is actually interesting to you potentially.
每一种新技术出现时，总会经历一段动荡期。
There is always a point of turmoil with these new technologies.
我一直在想，有没有什么公式能预测经济会不会迎来繁荣？
And I've been trying to actually break down, is there like a formula that you can figure out, will the economy boom?
我觉得会的。
Well, I think it will.
这几乎是不可避免的。
I think that's inevitable.
但问题是，这得花多长时间？
But like how long will it take?
比如铁路刚出现的时候，有张奇怪的图表显示，铁路铺设的里程数和普通人蛋白质摄入量的增长是同步的。
So for example, the railroads came about, and that's and like, there's like this weird chart that if you look at like how many railroad tracks were laid and how the average person's protein consumption went up.
因为铁路让美国变小了，很多城镇不再受限于原来的地理位置了。
Because like, what the railroads did was they made America smaller, and it created like towns that didn't exactly have to be where they were anymore.
这才催生了一个空前繁荣的经济。
And it created this massive, like booming economy.
但这一过程花了五十年，因为我们得修建铁路，这可是个极其耗人力的工程。
However, it took fifty years because we had to create railroads, which is a very labor intensive thing.
我们还得发明钢铁，那完全是全新的东西。
We had to create steel, which was like entirely new invented.
所以这里有个公式：技术的覆盖广度——也就是影响多少人，乘以它对每个人的影响深度，再乘以协同创新所需的时间。
And so there's this equation where it's like the breadth of the technology, meaning how many people does it impact, multiplied by this, like the intensity of how it impacts you, multiplied by like the time of co invention.
这个乘积就决定了人们要经历多长时间的动荡。
And that equals like the length of turmoil that someone will go through.
像ChatGPT这样发展得这么快，有可能它带来的动荡期会比过去任何重大技术突破都要短得多。
With ChatGBT growing as fast as it has, there is a world where the tumultuous period is relatively short compared to past breakthrough technologies.
如果你能预知动荡何时开始、会怎样发生、持续多久，你会怎么利用这个信息？
And if you knew the turmoil, either when, how, or how long, what would you do with it?
因为你之前说过，这背后藏着机会。
Because you said there's like an opportunity.
那这个机会到底是什么？
What's the opportunity?
如果你知道我们只需要三到五年就能重新走上正轨，那你就能大胆下注了。
Like if you knew that like the like it's only gonna take us three to five years to like figure this thing out to where we're humming again, you can make bets on that.
对。
Yeah.
其实过去几年里，英伟达的情况就挺像杰文斯悖论的。很多人原本以为，大家买这么多GPU，但随着实验室不断优化算法，训练模型所需的GPU数量应该会越来越少。
Actually, you know, one of the kind of Jevon's paradox plays over the last few years has been NVIDIA because what a lot of people thought is, hey, people are buying these GPUs, but each training run, each algorithmic improvement that the labs are making is gonna make you need less and less of these GPUs in order to train these models.
詹森上电视时说：你说得对。
And Jensen went on TV saying was he was like, you're right.
训练确实会越来越高效，但推理需求会暴涨一百万倍。
The training is gonna become more efficient, but the inference is gonna go up by 1000000% or whatever.
一百万倍。
One one million x.
人们都惊了：一百万倍？
And people are like, 1,000,000 x?
他却说：对，一百万倍。
And he's like, 1,000,000 x.
这其实就跟你说的开头那部分一样，当这些技术真正普及开来，需求的增长根本不是那种能轻易理解的百分比或者倍数。
And it's kind of what you were saying at the beginning, which is that when these things do diffuse, the demand goes up not by, like, some kind of easy to understand percentage or multiple Yes.
而是以一种让人难以想象的方式增长——比如从印刷术出现到现在，如果你当时想估算会有多少人写文字、多少人读文字，你根本想不到会有推特这种东西。
But, like, in a mind boggling way where, you know, when from the time of the printing press to now, like, if you were trying to market size, how many people will create text and how many people will read text, you couldn't have thought of Twitter.
对吧？
Right?
推特这种东西，完全超出了你的想象。
Twitter would have broken your brain.
听起来完全不合理，但现实就是这样发生的。
It didn't make any sense, but that's kind of what happens.
所以他一直在说，推理阶段的需求也是这样，当你向AI提问、用AI做事情的时候，其实用的就是推理。
And so he's been saying that about inference, which is like when you query AI, when you use AI to do something, you use inference.
他说，推理的需求正在爆发，但大多数人根本意识不到，全世界对推理算力的需求会大到什么程度。
And he's like, inference is going through, it's basically people don't understand like how much they're How big the inference need is gonna be for the world.
简直难以置信。
So mind boggling.
我觉得未来六个月会发生的事是——这点也说给听众听，因为你们可能已经知道——那些有影响力的聪明人，我觉得我们还算挺有影响力的。
I think what's gonna happen over the next six months is, and this is partially for listener, because I think you potentially might know this, is I think the popular smart people, which I think we're relatively popular.
我不觉得自己有多聪明。
I don't think I'm that smart.
但那些有影响力的聪明人，他们的说法会变。
But I think the popular smart people, the narrative is going to change.
这说法其实挺自我服务的，尤其是如果你是个总统之类的人物。
It's not and this is and it's self serving to have this narrative, particularly if you're a president or whatever.
但他们的说法确实会变。
But the narrative is going to change.
他们会说这会带来巨大的净收益，还会引用杰文斯悖论，把我说的这些全拿去当论据，其实也没什么特别的。
That this is going to be a massive net positive, and they're going to cite Jevon's paradox, and they're going to excite everything that I've just said, which isn't particularly unique.
我讲的这些都不算新奇。
And nothing I'm saying is unique.
老兄，我天天都看到这种情况。
Dude, I see this all time.
这事儿好不好，关键看你能不能把它变成对你有利的事。
It's like, yeah, this is gonna be great for you if you make it great for you.
我觉得很多人只是被动等着看，心里琢磨：这手是会打我一巴掌，还是会往我嘴里塞葡萄呢？
I think people are just sitting back as, like, the recipient of this, and it's like, is this hand gonna slap me, or is it gonna put, you know, grapes in my mouth?
这得看情况。
And it's like, well, it depends.
具体看你怎么做。
Like, it depends what you do.
你有没有在学怎么用这东西？
Are you learning how to use this shit?
你有没有留意周围发生的变化？
Are you paying attention to what's going on?
你有没有想过怎么把它用在你的领域里？
Are you thinking about how you can use this in your field?
你有没有跟有见识的人交流？
Are you talking to smart people?
你是在跟着冰球的去向走，还是原地不动？
Are you moving where the puck is going or not?
我觉得人们对待未来的态度太被动了，好像一切都在对你发生，而不是为你发生，你根本没能力主动参与，也没法自己掌控并普及这项技术。
Like, I feel like people are so passive about, like, what's gonna happen as if everything is happening to you and that none of this is happening potentially for you and that you have no agency to be generative and democratize this technology for yourself.
今天的播客由我的朋友Mercury赞助。
Today's podcast is brought to you by my friends at Mercury.
他们推出了全球最好的银行产品。
They make the world's best banking product.
我想你早就知道了。
I think you know this already.
我所有的生意都用Mercury。
I use Mercury for all of my businesses.
我大概有七八个生意吧。
I think I have, like, maybe seven or eight businesses.
我们所有生意的对公账户都用Mercury。
We use Mercury as our business banking across all of them.
现在他们还推出了个人银行账户。
And now they actually just launched a personal banking account.
我的个人账户也转到那里了。
So I have my personal account there.
我已经把账户从富国银行和摩根大通都转出来了。
I moved off of Wells Fargo and Chase.
我现在完全用 Mercury 了。
I'm just all in on Mercury.
为什么呢？
Why?
我喜欢用起来简单的产品。
I like products that are easy to use.
我喜欢那些真正懂我、懂我需求的产品。
I like products that get me and the problems that I have.
比如，和我妻子一起开联名账户特别方便，生成虚拟卡片也一按就成。
So, like, very easy to make a joint account with my wife, very easy to spin up virtual cards.
点一下就能获得储蓄收益。
One click and I get savings yield.
所有我需要的功能都集中在一个地方。
It just has all the stuff that I need in one place.
如果你在找市场上最好的银行产品，那绝对是Mercury。
So if you're looking for the best banking product on the market, it's definitely Mercury.
谁要是不同意我这观点，我敢跟他打一架。
I will fist fight anybody who disagrees with me on that.
去 mercury.com/personal 了解更多。
Go to mercury.com/personal and learn more.
Mercury 是一家金融科技公司，并不是一家受FDIC保险的银行。
Mercury is a fintech, not an FDIC insured bank.
银行服务由Choice Financial Group和Column NA提供，这两家都是FDIC成员。
Banking services are provided through Choice Financial Group and Column NA, members FDIC.
我研究卢德分子的原因是，我觉得同样的运动现在正在发生，而且还会持续下去。
The reason I was studying the Luddites is I think that same movement is already happening right now, and it's gonna continue to happen.
你注意到最近的大学毕业演讲了吗？比如史蒂夫的，还有所罗门的——我记不清他名字了。
You know, you saw like at this recent college graduation speeches, like Steve's or Solomon, I forget his first name.
所罗门，高盛的CEO，一谈到人工智能，台下就一片嘘声。
Solomon, the CEO of Goldman, was like talking about AI and everyone was booing.
是的。
Yeah.
人都走光了。
People walked out.
对吧？
Right?
我提这个是因为，如果你回头看看镀金时代，还有工业革命，这些事其实一直在重演——那也是我特别感兴趣的时期。
The reason I'm bringing this up is if you go back and study the Gilded Age, which I that's one of my favorite eras, as well as the Industrial Revolution, it's all just repeats itself.
所有事情都在重复发生。
Everything's repeating itself.
一遍又一遍，简直一模一样，毫无新意。
It's it's like the it's very, very, very similar over and over and over and over again.
这一切都挺容易预料的。
This is all quite predictable.
具体什么时候、怎么发生谁也说不准，但大方向早就出现过，早就演过了。
Not the time and the how is who knows, but like the general trend, it's all been there, done that.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得很荒谬，现在居然把反对数据中心、反对人工智能这些东西当成有身份的象征。
That's crazy to me that it's become like a high status thing to do to be anti data centers and AI and things like that.
真的特别奇怪。
It's like really, really bizarre.
不过这话也有道理。
But that's fair.
我觉得我们不该轻视这种现象。
Don't think that's I don't think we should dismiss it.
我觉得他们太傻了。
I think they're stupid.
我能理解他们的情绪。
I understand their sentiment.
你能想象自己才21岁吗？
Can you imagine being 21 years old?
首先，如果你21岁，那你高中毕业那会儿正好赶上疫情。
First of all, if you're 21 years old, you fucking graduated high school during COVID.
这真够倒霉的。
That sucks.
明白吧？
Okay?
过去四年世界变化太大了，你本来指望能进德勤或者当个法律助理什么的，结果人家说：不，我们不需要你，兄弟。
The world changed dramatically over the last four years, the point where you were expecting to get a job at Deloitte and or as a law clerk or whatever, like, you know, and they're like, nah, we don't need you, dog.
确实有怨气，这个我懂。
Like, there is anger, which I understand.
但我觉得他们这种方式
But I think that the way that they
你这是让我去理解一个失败者的想法，我真的做不到。
act You're asking is me to put my mind in the mind of a loser, and I just can't do it.
这根本不可能做到。
It's just not possible to do this.
在我们看来，失败者这种状态是完全不可接受的。
The loser thing is just not acceptable in my mind.
抱歉，我说真的。
And I I'm sorry.
我真的没有这种能力。
I just I just don't have the ability.
也许你可以。
Maybe you can.
也许你能走进一个失败者的心里，但是
Maybe you can go in the mind of a loser, but
我觉得他们确实做错了，但我能理解他们的处境。
I I just they're wrong, but I have empathy for it.
我懂那种感觉，但我觉得他们挺蠢的。
I understand that feeling, and I think they're stupid.
老兄，ATM机刚发明那会儿，那些银行柜员就……
Dude, there was one point where like ATMs had just gotten invented, and these people who were like the bank tellers was
觉得……
like, it
那简直是个大事儿。
was like a big deal.
那活儿可不少。
That was like a big job.
结果他们直接反抗了。
And they revolted.
他们心里想，去他的吧。
They were like, f this.
你们这是要让我们没饭吃啊，这也不行那也不行。
You're gonna put us out of business, this or that.
你知道后来怎么样了吗？
And do you know what happened?
反而开了更多的银行。
Way more banks went up.
开了更多银行，或者说是更多的实体分行。
Way more banks were created or branches, like physical locations.
所以我要是跟这些年轻人说，我会讲，可能一时会很难受。
Way And so I just think if I'm telling these young people, I would say, it might suck for a minute.
哥们儿，你要是年轻，真没什么可抱怨的。
Dude, if you're young, have no excuse.
要是你六十五岁，或者七十五岁，我还能理解，哎呀，变化太大了。
Okay, I can get it if you're like 65, and you're 75 years old, or whatever, and you're like, oh my god, there's a lot of change.
确实会很难。
It's gonna be really hard.
我一直在经营自己的生意。
I've been running my business.
现在让我重新来过，真的挺难的。
It's it's pretty difficult for me to reinvent right now.
我这才真正理解了那种感觉。
Like, I have a lot more understanding for that.
你要是十八九岁，本来就没啥经验。
If you're 18, 19, you didn't know anything anyways.
对吧？
You know?
赶紧上这趟车吧。
Hop on this train.
这趟车特别带劲。
This train is exciting.
这趟车空间大得很，有的是发挥余地。
This train has, like, so much room to run.
你知道吧，你得想想那些如果当初不一样的情况。
You know, you you sort of have to look at the counterfactuals.
对吧？
Right?
你可能会说，现在找工作比以往任何时候都难，或者别的什么情况。
So you might say, well, it's gonna be harder than ever to get a job, or this, or that.
但同样真实的是，现在比以往任何时候都有更多人会创造出新东西。
It's also true that more people than ever are gonna create new things.
现在比以往任何时候都有更多人会取得成功。
More people than ever are gonna become successful.
现在比以往任何时候都有更多人会从这里面变成百万富翁。
More people than ever are gonna become millionaires out of this.
所以，只要你愿意，采取相应的行动，这种结果完全有可能实现。
And so it's entirely possible to to have that result if you if you choose, if you do the actions that will that will get you to that result.
因此，我对年轻人的困境真的没什么同情心。
So I guess I just have very little empathy for, like, the younger folks.
这本该对他们来说更容易、更自然才对。
This should be easier, come more naturally for them.
他们背负的过去更少，投入的成本更低，也没那么多陈规旧习拖着后腿。
They have less invested and less sunk costs and less rigidity of the past to even, like, be tied down to.
所以我真的不太明白这一点。
So I don't really understand that.
另一面是，这对你有帮助吗？
And the other side is like, is this serving you?
这种心态真的对你有任何好处吗？
Like, is that attitude serving you in any way?
别纠结谁对谁错了。
It is like, forget arguing who's right and who's wrong.
归根结底，你得问自己：这个信念真的对我有用吗？
Like, at some point, you just have to ask, does this belief serve me or not?
我不觉得这个信念对你有帮助。
And I don't believe that that belief serves you.
我也觉得你控制不了这件事。
I also don't believe that you can control it.
就像内德·卢德和卢德分子发现的那样，砸再多窗户也没用。
Just like Ned Ludd and The Luddites found out, it didn't matter how many windows you smashed.
这事儿就是会发生。
This shit's happening.
这就像生天气的气一样。
It's like getting mad at the weather.
不管你冲着天空挥拳头，雨该下还是下。
It's like, it's gonna rain whether you shake your fist to the sky or not.
你根本拦不住人工智能的发展。
Like, you have zero chance of slowing down AI.
人工智能这列火车已经开出了车站。
The AI freight train has left the station.
这事儿已经在发生了。
It is happening.
所以你真正该关心的，只是你能掌控的部分——也就是你对这个新游戏规则的反应和应对方式。
And so all you should really worry about is what you can control, which is your reaction and response to the new playing field.
在我看来，硬说这个新规则不好，简直太傻了。
Trying to argue that the new playing field is bad is sort of stupid to me.
这就像，again，冲着天气大喊大叫一样。
It's like, again, like yelling at the weather.
你根本没资格对这方面指手画脚。
You don't get to you don't get to have a say in in that side of things.
纽约那个州长、市长，不管是谁，居然还洋洋得意地说，我们纽约州禁止建数据中心了。
The New York who's the governor, the mayor, who whoever it was, that was like, proudly like, we have banned data centers in New York state.
他们还为此特别自豪。
They were like so happy about it.
你知道，政治本来就挺作秀的，但像这样为打压能推动经济发展的技术而沾沾自喜，未免太荒唐了。
You know, politics are already very performative, but like, man, taking so much smug pride in like banishing the technology that's gonna create all the where all the growth is coming from in the economy is sort of, you know, silly.
现在被广泛讨论的一点是，数据中心消耗大量电力和水资源。
And one that's being popularized now is data centers use electricity and use water.
我其实也不知道这说法是对还是错。
And I actually have no idea if that's true or not true.
但每当我看到这些说法，我就觉得我们真该去查证一下事实真相。
But whenever I see these things, I'm like, we should actually learn if that's the reality.
我觉得，像超级碗这样的活动，效率肯定比数据中心低多了，可我们却在为它欢呼。
Because I I have a feeling that, like, the Super Bowl is significantly more inefficient than a data center, and yet we celebrate that.
那些有这种感觉的人，可能会觉得：‘肖恩根本没理解我，这人也太不近人情了。’
Like, anybody who's has this feeling and you're like, man, Sean's really not empathizing with my this guy's being a jerk about this.
他根本不懂我现在有多难。
He doesn't understand how hard it is right now and for for me.
你去看看这段视频吧。
Just watch this clip.
你一定要看这段视频，一个没有双腿的人参加了‘最后站立者’比赛，那是个疯狂的26小时耐力赛，他靠双臂拖着轮椅在泥地里爬行，硬是完成了全程。
You just need to watch this clip of this guy with no legs completing the last man standing race, which is like this insane twenty six hour fitness event, and he's crawling he's using his he's pulling his wheelchair through the mud using his arms finishing this race.
如果你总说‘事情就是这样’，那就反复看这段视频吧。
And anybody who's got an it is what it is attitude, go watch this on loop.
你该拿这个做毕业演讲，别就坐在那儿一副高高在上的样子，因为别人说了两个你不爱听的字母就走人。
This should be your commencement speech instead of, you know, just sitting there smug and walking out of it because some guy said two letters you didn't like.
我一般会想到萨卡加维亚和刘易斯与克拉克。
I usually think of Sacagawea and Lewis and Clark.
那就是我的榜样。
That's mine.
在这样的时刻，我想到的是——
In moments like I
你想啊，他们带着一个三个月大的婴儿，穿越未知的土地走了整整两年。
think, look, they walked across an unknown territory for two years with a three month old baby.
人家都能做到，那孩子也活下来了。
Could do that, and that baby's still lived.
那我这点事算什么。
I can do this.
我就需要这种精神。
That's what I need.
其实，当你在迪士尼当爸爸，已经第七个小时了，天气还这么热，真该有个专门的服务。
Actually, that should be a service when you're in Disneyland as a dad, and it's like hour seven, and it's so hot.
孩子哭闹不止，你花了上千块带他们来这地球上最快乐的地方，推着婴儿车，手里还拿着火鸡腿，汁水顺着胳膊往下流，这时候你真想放弃一切。
The kids are crying cranky after you spent a thousand dollars taking them to the happiest place on earth, and you're pushing the stroller, and you've got the turkey leg dripping down your arm, the juice of that thing, and you just hate your life.
你需要的是萨卡加维亚那样的榜样。
You need the Saka jowia example.
对。
Yeah.
你得跟孩子们说：听好了，《白鲸记》里的故事是真的。
You're like, look kids, the story of Moby Dick is real.
这些人曾经在木筏上漂了整整九十天，横跨美洲，直到被人发现。
These guys floated across America on a raft for ninety days before they were discovered.
明白吗？
Okay?
他们都能做到，咱们为啥不能一路忍着不哭着走到麦当劳？
If they could do that, we can get to McDonald's without crying.
我给你讲个特别励志的创业故事，作为收尾吧。你听说过冰王吗？
Can I tell you a very inspiring entrepreneurial story just to leave on Have a high you ever heard about the ice king?
弗雷德里克·图多尔。
Frederick Tudor.
你认识这个人吗？
You know this guy?
不认识。
Not personally.
好吧。
Alright.
所以是弗雷德里克·图多尔。
So Frederick Tudor.
这个人被称为冰王。
So this guy is known as the ice king.
他住在美国内陆东北部地区。
This guy, basically, he lives in the North Northeast of of The US.
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