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我们有一个名为《我的第一个百万》的播客，节目中我们探讨各种复杂的方案，讲述人们如何赚到他们的第一个百万。
We have this podcast called My First Million where we're coming with all these complicated schemes of how somebody could make their first million.
与此同时，在他们的关系中，莎拉却用最简单的办法，比山姆更早地赚到了她的第一个百万。
Meanwhile, in their relationship, Sarah made her first million before Sam with the simplest scheme of all.
我觉得自己可以统治世界。
I feel like I could rule the world.
我知道我可以成为我想成为的人。
I know I could be what I want to.
我把全部精力都投入其中，甚至牺牲了路上的休息日。
I put my all in it like my days off on the road.
我们试试看，于是邀请了来自TBPN的朋友们。
Let's try So we invited our buddies from TBPN.
嗯。
Mhmm.
约翰和霍迪来了，他们将为我们录制每年最喜爱的节目之一——《莎拉清单》。
John and Jordi here to do one of our favorite episodes that we do every year called Sarah's List.
这个清单被称为‘Sarah的清单’，以纪念这位女王本人——Sam的妻子Sarah。
And it's called Sarah's List in honor of the queen herself, Sam's wife, Sarah.
你知道，这其实是个经典故事。
You know, it's a classic story, really.
她加入了一家已经非常出色的公司，作为第3000号员工，当时的数学计算是这样的。
She just joined a great company that was clearly already great as, like, employee 3,000, and the math was like this.
她去了Airbnb工作，我想，抛开她的具体数字不谈。
She got a job at Airbnb, and I think it was, you know, her numbers aside.
一般来说，你入职时，公司除了工资外，还会给你一份价值约4万或5万美元的股票期权。
The general math is you get a job, and they'll offer you maybe, like, a 40 or 50 k a year stock package in addition to your salary.
所以你有工资。
So you get your salary.
你有医疗保险。
You get your health care.
公司还提供厨房，每天为你供应午餐。
They got a kitchen where they're serving you lunch.
冰箱里有燕麦奶。
They got oat milk in the fridge.
所以你一点都没吃亏。
So you you're not sacrificing anything.
她并没有发明Airbnb这个点子。
She didn't have to come up with the idea of Airbnb.
她只是加入了公司。
She joined it.
她并不是那个拼命打拼的首批员工。
She wasn't the first employee grinding like crazy.
她是第3000号员工。
She was employee 3,000.
但那份股票包，在四年期间，你每年获得大约20万美元的股票，增长了五倍。
But that stock package, which over a four year period is, you know, you're granted about $200,000 worth of stock, five x.
她在我和Sam之前就赚了一百万美元。
And she made a million bucks before either me or Sam.
所以我们想致敬那些加入已经明确领先的公司的智慧，尤其是在科技领域，因为领先者能跑得非常远。
And so we kinda wanted to honor the brilliance that is joining companies that are already clear winners, especially in tech because the winners can run so far.
是的。
Yeah.
所以每隔几年，我和山姆都会做一件事，就是列出
And so every every few years, me and Sam have done this where we come up
我们的名单。
with our list.
我们称之为
We call
莎拉名单，也就是你现在会加入的十家公司。
it Sarah's list, which is the the 10 companies you would join right now.
因为作为一个人，你的时间本质上就是你的投资。
Because as a person, your time is essentially your investment.
对吧？
Right?
当你加入一家公司时，这本身就是一种投资行为。
You're when you join a company, that's an act of an investment.
有趣的是，我认识一些投资者，他们在那轮独角兽融资中做了投资，用的也是完全相同的逻辑。
It's funny because I know some investors who did who who made an investment in that unicorn round, and they had the exact same logic.
他们觉得，产品市场契合度已经完全到位，明显是领跑者，干脆把钱大量投进去，这是一笔轻松的投资，结果真的成功了。
They were, like, complete product market fit, obvious runner, like, just put just pile money into this, like, easy investment, and then it worked.
她加入的时候，我认为公司的估值是1800万美元左右。
She joined, I think, at the $18,000,000 valuation, something like that.
明白了。
Okay.
然后疫情来了，我们心想：天啊，这主意真不错。
And then COVID happened, and we were like, well, shit, that was a good idea.
可惜没成功。
Sucks it didn't work.
然后，显然，一切在六个月后都变了。
And then, obviously, everything changed in six months.
然后我认为它上市时的估值大约是1000亿美元，你们还记得布莱恩·切斯基那场著名的采访吗？他在节目中说，股价是多少，公司价值达1000亿美元。
And then I think it IPO ed around $100,000,000,000 And you guys remember that famous interview with Brian Chesky where he's told on air, he's like, the share price is this, and it's worth a $100,000,000,000.
他说：‘我直到现在才知道，因为早在2019年或2018年，当它的估值是180亿美元时，我们还觉得它可能值300亿美元左右。',
He's like, I I I didn't know that until just now because back then, in 2019 or '18, when it was $18,000,000,000, we were like, this could be worth, like, $30,000,000,000.
就像，你知道的，如果一切顺利的话。
Like, you know, like, if Yeah.
一切都会变好的。
Everything Yeah.
如果一切都能顺利实现。
Like, if everything works.
所以，不管怎样，这就是她的故事。
And so, anyway, that was her story.
结果非常好，因为她工作量正常，享有优厚的产假和陪产假，还有很好的福利待遇，诸如此类。
And it worked out great because she worked a normal amount, had great maternity, paternity package, had great benefits, all that stuff.
所以我们这样做了好几年，但你知道有什么特别的吗？
And so we've done this for a few years, but you wanna you know what's something?
我们实际上已经有十八个月没这么做了，因为过去二十到二十四个月里，随着人工智能的种种发展，事情实在太难了。
We've actually haven't actually done this in, like, eighteen months because it's been so hard these last twenty or twenty four months with everything going on with AI.
所以你们能来真是太好了，因为我觉得你们对最新最前沿的东西了解得更多。
So And you guys are pretty cool to have because I think you'll know a lot more about some of the latest and greatest.
是的。
Yeah.
我们请你们来，不仅因为你们非常聪明，而且你们的节目每天都会进行十五分钟的访谈，采访这些公司的首席执行官。
We wanted you guys on because not only not only do you guys are you guys super smart, but you guys part of your show is you're talking to the CEOs of these companies in these like fifteen minute interviews every single day.
所以你们每天都在接触
And so you're getting
对哪些公司有很好的了解
a good sense for kind
谁表现得好，你们相信谁，哪些公司让你们兴奋。
of like who's doing well, who do you believe, what companies excite you.
所以我们想听听你们的看法。
So we wanted to hear what you guys have.
顺便说一下，上次萨姆，我回去查了一下。
By the way, last time, Sam, I went back and checked.
我想我们上一轮做的那十家公司，大概是十八个月前或者两年前左右，那时候。
I think of the 10 companies that we did in our last round, which was something like eighteen months ago or two two you know, eighteen months, two years ago, something like that.
我觉得我们选中的十家公司里有六家已经达到了目标，或者正在朝着目标前进。
I think we got six out of 10 that are, like, already either there or pacing to be there.
比如，当我们投资OpenAI的时候，我们还笑着说，嘿。
So for example, like, when we did OpenAI and we were laughing, we were like, hey.
有个惊人的消息。
Here's a shocker.
当时OpenAI的估值是1000亿美元。
OpenAI, was a $100,000,000,000 valuation at the time.
现在呢，差不多已经接近8000亿美元了。
It's now, like, you know, close to 800,000,000,000 now.
所以我们当时还说，你看。
And so and we even said, like, look.
在商业领域，难度并不会带来额外的加分。
There's no bonus points for difficulty in life in the game of business.
有时候，最好的公司就藏在明处。
Like, sometimes the best companies are just hidden in plain sight.
它们就在你眼前。
They're right in front of you.
所以我觉得我们做得相当不错。
And so I think we've done pretty well.
最大的一笔投资是在过去。
The biggest one was in the past.
是Androl。
Was Androl.
我想我们是在2021年投资了Androl。
We did Androl in '21, I think.
当时估值是40亿美元，我觉得现在涨到了90亿或者50亿，我记不太清了。
And that was 4,000,000,000 at the time, and I think it's 90 or fifth I I don't I don't remember.
很多这些公司实际上都会留在名单上。
A lot of those companies would stay on the list, honestly.
比如，即使你去年已经投资了Andrew，它的估值也已经大幅上涨，所以仍然有理由将其包含在内。
Like, I think, you know, even even if you've done Andrew last year, like, the valuation has increased so much that it still makes sense to include in the
名单上。
list.
是的。
Yeah.
人们最大的错误就是不敢押注明显的赢家，因为它们的估值已经高达数十亿美元，让人觉得：‘从这里还能有多少上升空间呢？’
The the biggest mistake that people make is not going with an obvious winner because it's already in multiple billions, and it just looks like, okay, what what's the potential upside from here?
这种想法一直是对的。
And and that's just been Right.
但在过去十年里，这种想法错了很多次。
Wrong so many times in the last ten years.
你们有没有用股份或股权代替现金来支付广告费用？
Do you guys ever take shares or equity instead of dollars for advertising?
我们确实有，但过去一年才开始，我们是个非常年轻的公司，因此更倾向于优化
We we have, but it's more just just over the last year, we're a super young business, and it's made sense to to optimize more
现金流。
Cash flow.
是的。
Yeah.
为了真正的实际收入。
For, like, actual real revenue.
对。
Yeah.
约翰和我
John and I
西装可不会自己买自己。
The the suits don't buy themselves.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这是一个因素。
I think that's a factor.
但你
But you
不是玩纸钱。
don't monopoly money.
好吧。
Alright.
所以插一句？
So jump in?
等等。
Wait.
让我给你讲个小故事，沙恩。
Let me tell you one quick story, Shaan.
我看到我在兰普的办公室里。
I saw I was at Ramp's office.
哦，你
Oh, you
应该，我看到了乔迪或者我认为是你们俩的提案。
should And I saw the pitch that Jordi or I think both
俩人
of you
guys 这太棒了。
guys This is great.
你们俩都发了。
Both of you guys sent.
我看到其中一句话，埃里克说那是乔迪写的，或者类似的话，提案开头写着：‘如果你和我们合作做广告，你们会变得如此庞大，以至于会被拖到国会面前，因为他们会指控你们垄断。’
And I saw one line, and and Eric said that Jordi wrote it or something like that, where he was like, the the the beginning of the pitch, it said, if you advertise with us, you'll get so big that you are gonna be dragged in front of congress because they're gonna accuse you of having a monopoly.
我觉得这是约翰的原话。
I think this was John's line.
这是你的。
This was yours.
对吧？
Right?
他了解我。
He knows me.
是的。
Yeah.
这太棒了。
That's so good.
有一个，我不确定你们是不是《善恶双生》的粉丝，但牙医系统里有个情节，他基本上是在谈论其中的暗示。
There's a I don't know if you guys are all fans of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but the the dentist system has this thing where he's basically talks about the implication.
对。
Yeah.
所以他说，不是他们真的有危险，而是危险的暗示。
And so he's like, it's not it's not that they're in danger, but it's the implication of danger.
没错。
Exactly.
广告界有一句著名的话，克雷格·克莱门斯在做我们播客时告诉我们，他说有一个产品——我不确定是保健品、香水还是别的什么——一直卖不动。
And there's this famous line in advertising that Craig Clemens told us when he was on the podcast, he talked about how there's this one I don't if it was a supplement or like a perfume or something like that that was having trouble selling.
后来他们改了广告文案，说：创始人发誓。
And then they switched the copywriting to say, you know, the founder swears.
她发誓这产品不含任何非法兴奋剂。
She swears that this does not contain any illegal stimulants.
然后你就想，她发誓这东西里绝对没有非法成分，没错。
And it's like, she swears there's nothing illegal in Yep.
只是因为它实在太棒了。
It's just that damn good.
它是，而且
It's And
这是一种暗示。
it's the implication.
就是这样运作的。
That's how that works.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这真的很有趣，因为我们真的很想赢得赞助商的支持。
I mean, it's it's so funny because, yeah, we wanna win super hard with our with our sponsors.
在科技领域，最难赢得的胜利，就是像马克·扎克伯格那样去国会听证会，面对参议员的时候。
And, like, the hardest you can win in tech is, like, you know, that Mark Zuckerberg moment when he goes on Capitol Capitol Hill Hill and and it's it's like Senator.
参议员。
Senator.
明白了。
Okay.
哇。
Wow.
他实际上已经达到了那个层次，感谢参议员。
He's actually at that level that Thank senator.
谢谢您，参议员。
Thank you, senator.
我们投放广告。
We run ads.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
这就像我的健身推广活动。
That's like with my fitness campaign.
还没人指责我拿了什么，这意味着它没起作用。
No one's accusing me of taking anything yet, which means it's not working.
你得多拿点。
You're take more.
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
那为什么每个人都觉得我全是天然的？
That's why Why does everybody think I'm all natty?
这是一个按钮。
This is a button.
这太好笑了。
That's hilarious.
我以前谈过我是如何赚钱的，如何培养赚钱的技能，如何利用你的时间和精力。
I've talked before about the way that I know how to make money, about how to build a money making skill, about how to leverage your time and energy.
HubSpot 的团队实际上仔细观看了我解释这些内容的视频，并将其整理成一份免费可下载的速查表，总结了我关于如何赚钱的四条规则。
And the team at HubSpot actually went through the video where I explained all that and turned it into a free downloadable cheat sheet on my four rules of how to make money.
这并不是那种所谓的‘快速致富’建议。
Now this is not, you know, get rich quick advice.
这只是关于积累财富的核心原则和基础理念。
It's just core principles, foundational principles about building wealth.
这些是我希望在我刚起步时就能知道的事情。
Things that I wish I knew when I was, you know, just getting started.
所以，如果你想下载，可以在下面的描述中找到。
And so if you wanna download it, it's in the description below.
这是完全免费的。
It's totally free.
你可以去获取它。
You can go get it.
感谢 HubSpot 的团队所做的研究、制作这份文档，并将其免费提供给大家。
Thanks to the folks at HubSpot for doing the research, making this document, and making it available to all you guys.
好的。
Alright.
回到这一集。
Back to this episode.
好的。
Alright.
我们开始吧。
So let's jump in.
我们每个人大约各有三个。
We each have roughly three each.
我们目标是凑够12个，可能还有一些额外的、值得提及的。
We're gonna try to get 12, maybe some bonus, some honorable mentions.
不错。
Cool.
我的第一个选择。
My first pick.
这是一家你们可能根本没听说过的公司，是的。
This is a company you guys might not even know about Mhmm.
我喜欢这一点。
Which I like.
我喜欢给你们惊喜，但这次我是直接上猛的。
I like to surprise you, but I'm just coming in strong here.
Zuru Tech。
Zuru Tech.
好的。
Okay.
Zuru Tech 是一家总部位于新西兰的公司。
Zuru Tech is a company that's based out of New Zealand.
它是全球第三大玩具公司。
And they're the third biggest toy company in the world.
所以如果你们见过 Mini Brands，Sam 就是个狂热的迷你食品收藏者。
So they make if you've ever seen mini brands, Sam's a big mini mini food collector.
他喜欢这些小玩具。
He he likes the mini toys.
他们制造了一些世界上最受欢迎的玩具。
They make some of the most popular toys in the world.
就是那种可以一次性装满30个水气球的气球套装。
The the the bunch of balloons where you can fill up 30 water balloons at once.
你知道的，就是这类东西。
You know, that type of stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
所以创始人尼克曾来过这个播客。
So the founder, Nick, came on the podcast.
他是新西兰最富有的人，他的故事简直不可思议。
He's the wealthiest man in New Zealand, and his story is insane.
这是我听过的最疯狂的奋斗故事了。
Like, probably the craziest grind story I've ever heard.
在节目结束时，我告诉他：去吧，我觉得你是我见过最接近埃隆·马斯克的人。
By the end of the episode, I told him, go, I think you're the closest thing to Elon Musk that I've ever seen.
人们只是不了解你，因为你住在世界的另一端，而且你一直在玩具行业，所以大家容易忽略你。
People just don't know about you because you live on the other side of the world, and you were in the toy industry, so kind of people overlook you.
所以他成立了一家新公司，这家公司实际上就设在那里。
So he's got a new company, and his new company or it's actually based in there.
他们正在用工厂建造房屋。
It's they're building homes with a factory.
简单来说，你只需要这样做。
Basically, here's what you do.
他有一个三，你知道的，就像ChatGPT那样。
He's got a three you know, it's like chat GPT.
你只需要描述一下，然后在你要建房的地方点一个标记。
You just describe you drop a pin where you're gonna put the home.
无论世界任何地方，无论哪个国家、城市或社区，只要一设定，系统就会自动下载所有建筑规范、许可要求和地形信息，因此它能判断你是在坡地上、有山丘，或者其他任何情况。
It automatically no matter where in the world, any country in the world, any city in the world, any neighborhood in the world, put it, it automatically downloads all it all has all of the building codes and the permitting and the terrain so it knows if you're on an incline or if there's a hill there or whatever.
对吧？
Right?
它已经内置了所有这些功能，叫做DreamCatcher。
It has all of that already built in, and it's called DreamCatcher.
所以你基本上描述一下你想要的家。
So you basically describe the home you want.
你会说，哦，我想要那种极简风格的， blah blah blah，5000平方英尺，做得酷一点，blah blah blah。
You're like, oh, I want this like kind of minimalist, blah blah blah, 5,000 square feet, make it cool, blah blah blah.
所以你就像用ChatGPT一样描述你想要的家。
So you basically describe like ChatGPT the home you want.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
它会使用类似Unreal Engine的技术渲染出来。
And it renders it all using like Unreal Engine.
所以它会在你面前完整地渲染出整个设计。
So it renders the whole thing in front of you.
它会为你生成一段AI视频，模拟你想要的房屋 walkthrough，有点像MidJourney那种风格。
It creates, like, an AI video of, like, a home walk through for you using kinda like a, you know, mid journey type of thing.
然后你就可以真正地建造这栋房子了。
And then you literally, like, build the home.
你点击一下，他就有一个位于中国的工厂，就像iPhone的制造工厂一样，但这个工厂会实际生产出这栋房子的所有子部件。
You click it, and he's got a factory in China that's like the iPhone building factory, but it actually builds all of the subcomponents for this home.
这太疯狂了。
And it's insane.
比如，当帕利塞德斯大火发生后，人们需要出售土地，他们就买了价值八千万美元的洛杉矶地块，他打算在这上面建造，我称之为‘打印’。
Like, they went and bought, like, when the Palisades fire happened and people needed to sell their lots, they bought, like, $80,000,000 worth of lots in LA, and he's building he's basically gonna print these I say print.
实际上，这是用机器人在建造。
Just it's it's building with a robot.
是的。
Yep.
在洛杉矶建造五千万美元的豪宅。
Like, $50,000,000 homes in LA.
所以这个家伙，我从未见过如此令人印象深刻的演示，亲眼看到他们建造的房屋，而且这些都是真实的。
And so this guy it was the most impressive demo I've ever seen seeing the homes that they're building, and it's real.
这个家伙简直就是制造天才，他和他兄弟都是。
Like, this guy is he's basically like, you know, manufacturing genius, him and his brother.
他们在中國拥有巨大的工厂来完成这些工作。
They have huge factories in China to be able to do this stuff.
关于房屋，令人惊讶的是，这个领域几乎从未被触及过，不仅没有被人工智能渗透，甚至连大多数技术都很少进入建筑和住宅建造领域。
And the crazy thing about homes is homes is a space that's really never been touched by definitely not AI, but really even most technology doesn't really go into construction and home construction.
当你销售数百万美元的豪宅时，你不需要卖很多套就能实现数十亿美元的收入。
And when you're selling homes that are multimillion dollar homes, you don't have to sell that many of them to be doing billions in revenue.
所以，如果有一家公司值得我倾尽所有积蓄，我一定会把钱全部投进去，这意味着它是我心目中莎拉清单的有力候选。
And so if there was one company that I could kinda empty the tank of my life savings into, I would be pouring it into this, which means it's a contender for Sarah's List for me.
太棒了。
Love it.
哇。
Wow.
很好的案例。
Great case.
他有没有提到过为什么这个领域之前的尝试都失败了？
Did he talk at all about why previous attempts in this category haven't worked?
因为确实有不少公司，我觉得这个投资很有意思，毕竟硅谷有好几家公司在这一领域尝试过，但都失败了。
Because there's been there's been a number there's kind of like a I like this bet because there's actually like a graveyard of Silicon Valley companies that have like made efforts.
是的，因为他不是一家硅谷公司。
Yeah, because he's not a Silicon Valley company.
他和他兄弟过去二十年一直在中国的工厂里搞制造。
He's the guy, him and his brother have basically been building factories in China for like the last twenty years.
所以他们是一家制造巨头。
So they're a manufacturing powerhouse.
比如，他们曾经进入过玩具行业，并成为全球第三大玩具公司。
So for example, they were in the toy space, and they became the third largest toy company in the world.
他们每年纯粹赚取超过十亿美元的利润，全部进入这两兄弟的口袋。
They do, like, over $1,000,000,000 of pure profit a year just into the two brothers' pockets.
这太疯狂了。
Like, it's crazy.
然后他们进入了纸尿裤领域。
Then they went into the diaper space.
他们想，你知道吗？
They're like, oh, you know what?
我们去和宝洁公司竞争吧，这可是最难打入的市场之一。
Let's go compete in one of the most, like, difficult to compete with things against Procter and Gamble.
他打造了增长最快的纸尿裤品牌，现在我认为，即使不是第一，也几乎和好奇和帮宝适齐平了，尽管这个品牌还很新。
And he built the fastest growing, now I think I think it's if it's not the number one, it's basically, like, right up there with Huggies and Pampers now, even though it's brand new.
这家纸尿裤公司正在塔吉特和沃尔玛疯狂销售，而且他们自己生产纸尿裤。
Diapers company, you know, they're selling in Target, Walmart like crazy, and they manufacture their own diapers.
原因是他发现中国有一种不同的纸尿裤制造方式和材料，于是他把这种模式引入了美国市场。
And the reason why was he found that in China, there was, like, a different style of diaper manufacturing, different materials, And he basically brought that to market in The US.
因此，他打造了最大的一套。
And so he built the largest set.
然后他们在护发产品上也做了同样的事。
Then they did the same thing in hair care.
他们在TikTok上拥有增长最快的护发品牌。
They it with They have the fastest growing brand on TikTok for hair care.
现在他们又在家居领域这么做。
And now they're doing it for homes.
所以我认为关键区别在于，像埃隆这样的硬件领域非常难，而大多数软件创业者在进入硬件领域时都会遭遇当头一棒。
And so I think the big difference is like Elon, hardware is hard, and most software founders, you know, go in for a rude awakening when they go into hardware.
但这些人真正做的，不仅仅是硬件，而是建厂本身才是最难的部分。
Whereas these guys have been doing literally, like, not just hardware, but, like, the building of the factory is the hard part.
生产产品的工厂反而是次要的，最关键的是建造高度自动化的工厂。
The factory that makes the product is sort of secondary to it, but building an highly automated factory is the number one one thing.
他们已经长期致力于建设工厂了。
And they've been building factories for a very, very long time.
这其实特别搞笑。
It's actually hilarious.
当他们去中国创办玩具公司时，他去了那里，因为他听说所有制造都在中国进行。
When they went to China to start their toy company, they built like, he went there because he heard, oh, all the manufacturing happens in China.
但通常这意味着你去找一家制造商。
But what that usually means is you go find a manufacturer.
你告诉他们你想做什么，他们就帮你制造。
You tell you tell them what you want to make, and they make it.
他去了中国，却犯了一个天真的错误，没有意识到这一点，而是在河边自己建了一家工厂。
He went to China, didn't realize that, like a naive mistake, and built his own factory there, like on the side of a river.
没错。
That's correct.
他从零开始一切，因为他不明白，当人们说他们在中国制造时，并不意味着他们亲自去中国制造。
Like, did it all from scratch because he didn't understand, like, oh, when people say they manufacture in China, it doesn't mean they go manufacture in China.
他们是去找现成的制造商。
They find an existing manufacturer.
他漏掉了这一点，直接去了
He he missed that part and just went
以惨痛的代价
the hard way
从头开始。
from the beginning.
这很有趣。
That's funny.
太好了。
That's great.
Shaan，听起来你根本不喜欢这个人。
Shaan, sounds like sounds like you don't like this guy at all.
我有说我喜欢他吗？
Did I say I'm a fan?
我喜欢这个人。
I'm a fan of this guy.
什么
What
男生们
do guys
怎么想？
think?
这真的能作为看空案例吗？
Will this actually work as the bear case?
我的意思是，我们来深入分析一下。
Like, what what unpack that a little bit.
嗯，这个演示太疯狂了，嗯。
Well, the the demo is so insane Mhmm.
你不得不问一个问题：这会不会像很多AI产品一样，演示时很棒，但实际使用却很差？
That you just have to ask the question, like, is this like many AI products that demo well but production sucks?
当然。
Sure.
当然。
Sure.
是的。
Sure.
所以，这个演示实在太棒了，对吧。
And so basically, the demo was so good Yeah.
你知道，你得先亲眼看到实际效果，才能完全相信。
That, you know, you just kinda gotta see a home first before you, you know, you fully believe.
我的意思是，我会把关税视为更主要的看空理由。
Well, I mean, I I would put, like, tariffs as more of the bear case.
如果中美关系进一步恶化，那么货物通关就会变得更加困难。
Like, if if China America relations degrade further, then it's gonna be harder to get stuff across the border.
东西会变得很难运过去。
It's gonna get hard stuff.
好吧，最疯狂的是
Well, here's
整件事中最疯狂的部分。
the craziest part of the whole thing.
是的
Yeah.
我觉得，你知道，在做事情的时候，无论是在中国做还是使用新技术，你都会想办法节省成本。
I thought, you know, you try to find cost savings when you do stuff, like whether you do it in China or you're using new technology.
所以问题来了，是10%吗？
And so the question was, is it 10%?
是20%吗？
Is it 20%?
到底有多少？
How much is it?
这基本上高出一个数量级以上。
It's basically like more than an order of magnitude.
所以用这种方式建造房屋的成本要便宜十倍以上，我觉得这才是令人兴奋的地方。
So it's more than 10 times cheaper to build the homes this way, which I think is the kind of the exciting part.
因为如果
Because if
如果你能降低建造成本，那对于世界的发展来说将具有非常重要的意义。
you could build the cost of build if you could bring the cost of building down, that's actually like very, very meaningful for like, I don't know, progress in the world.
但这违背了这个列表的初衷。
But this breaks the whole point of the list.
这听起来不像我想和一个像埃隆这样的人共事。
This does not sound I don't wanna work with a person that sounds like Elon.
并没有任何前提说明创始人必须完全理智。
There was no caveat that said the founder is completely sane.
我们没有加上这一点。
We didn't add that.
我们只是说，你加入一家已经拥有成熟业务的公司，这些人已经取得了巨大的成功，但这家公司还有五倍增长的潜力，因为已经存在一条明确的路径。
We just said, you join a company that's already got a existing these guys have a hugely successful business already, but it has a chance to five x because there's a there's a pathway there.
好吧。
Alright.
那是我的第一家创业公司。
That my first company.
我们换个人吧。
Let's switch to somebody else.
好的。
Yeah.
让我们的嘉宾先说。
Let our guests go first.
让嘉宾先说。
Let let the guests go first.
他们一定得对我们好点。
Must be be good to us.
好吧。
Okay.
有个小说明。
Quick caveat.
我们之前以为必须挑选估值低于十亿美元的公司。
So we were under the impression that we had to be picking companies under a billion dollar valuation.
这是一种很好的练习。
It's a good kind of exercise.
是的。
Yeah.
而且实际上，如今早期阶段依然基本上意味着估值低于十亿美元。
And actually, like, understand that early stage today still means sub 1,000,000,000 basically.
霍尔迪，你照片里背的那个包是五千美元的吗？
Jordi, are you carrying like a $5,000 handbag in that in that photo?
这不是旅行包，是个邮包。
It's not it's a duffel bag.
我们做的是起源之井
We do the origin Well of
好吧，所以TBPN的起源，其他人曾把它描述为科技与商业领域的ESPN。
well, so so so the I mean, bit the the the, origin of TBPN is other people have described it as, you know, ESPN for tech and business.
有趣的是，约翰和我都不看任何传统的美国体育赛事，比如橄榄球、篮球、棒球等等。
What's funny is that John and I do not watch any of the traditional American sports, football, basketball, baseball, etcetera.
总之，第一个是Varda太空工业公司，由Deleon、Asper、Zuru和Willbury领导。
Anyway, first one, Varda Space Industries, helmed by none other than Deleon, Asper, Zuru, and Willbury.
前SpaceX估值为7.26亿美元。
Former SpaceX valuation, 726,000,000.
但这属于那种可能持续数十年的项目，潜在市场规模巨大，人们对他们的期望也非常高。
But, like, one of those multi decade projects that could have really, really large TAM, really, really large expectations of what they do.
他们会在太空中制造产品。
So they manufacture things in space.
他们并不制造火箭。
So they do not build the rockets.
他们与SpaceX合作，发射一个胶囊舱。
They partner with SpaceX to launch a capsule.
在那个胶囊舱内，他们创造了一个将重力设为‘关闭’的制造环境。
And then inside that capsule, they effectively have created a manufacturing environment where gravity is an off switch.
因此，对于某些特定应用，比如你想培育晶体、研发药物、培养心脏组织，或者生产某些特殊纤维时，这就有用武之地了。
And so for certain things, imagine you're trying to grow a crystal or you're trying to grow a drug or heart tissue or there's applications for certain types of fiber.
目前正在进行大量的生物医学研究。
Doing a lot of bio biomedical work right now.
此外还有国防应用。
And then there's also defense applications.
如果你能把东西送上太空再带回地球，就能做很多有趣的事情。
If you can get things up into space and get them down, there's a whole bunch of interesting things you can do there.
这家公司目前大约有四五年的历史，总部位于洛杉矶，拥有150名员工。
And so the company is maybe four or five years old at this point, 150 employees based in Los Angeles.
显然，那里的工作环境非常努力。
Obviously, you know, very hardworking environment.
但尤其是随着新的NASA管理层上任，进展速度加快了许多。
But especially with the new NASA administration, things are moving much faster.
去年，SpaceX面临很多不确定性。
SpaceX, there was a lot of uncertainty last year.
他们开始实现星舰的着陆，发射成本又开始下降了。
They started landing the Starships, and launch costs are starting to tick down again.
所以事情变得越来越容易了。
And so it gets easier and easier.
当他们首次将胶囊送入太空时，这确实是衡量一家航天公司真正能在太空中做些什么的关键问题：他们需要多长时间才能实现这一目标？
And when they first put up their first capsule in space, this is the real question with a space company is like, how long will it take them to actually do something in space?
过去需要五到十年。
It used to be five, ten years.
他们只用了几年时间就将第一个胶囊送入了太空。
They got their first capsule up in just a few years.
他们现在已经进入第五或第六个胶囊的阶段。
They're already on their fifth or sixth capsule.
人们
People
他们停止销售，又把它拿回来了。
They stopped selling got it back.
他们把它拿回来了。
They got it back.
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一些太空公司把东西送入太空，但那往往就是故事的终点。
A of space companies put stuff up into space, but that's kind of the end end of the story.
因此，我们认为Varda的框架是：把一群极其优秀、极其勤奋的人聚集在一起，让他们具备将物品送入太空并安全带回的能力。
And so I think our our kind of framework for Varda is, like, you get a group of ultra talented people together, ultra hardworking people together that can develop the capability of simply putting stuff up in space and bringing it back down.
从长远来看，这将有非常广泛的应用。
Gonna have a really wide range of applications over the long run.
创始人是什么样的人？
What's the founder like?
Will Brewery是一位典型的、极其聪明的SpaceX工程师背景的人，他能够与大型制药公司的首席执行官沟通并让他们签约。
Will Brewery is, like, completely, like, super sharp by the book SpaceX engineer background who has been able to talk to big pharma CEOs and get them to sign up.
然后是Dellian，你知道的，Dellian。
And then Dellian's, you know, Dellian.
Dellian显然很有个性，非常外向，但公司整体上一直非常反对炒作。
Dellian, who's like obviously quite a character, very very loud, has but the company in general has been very like anti hype.
太空领域有很多公司纯粹是炒作项目。
So there's a lot of companies in space that are just hype businesses.
它们甚至没有取得多少成就，就一路走到了公开市场。
They will get all the way to the public markets with without having accomplished much, if anything at all.
是的。
Yeah.
而Varda从不追逐炒作。
And Varda has been doesn't chase the hype.
去年，它们并没有因为数据中⼼这个话题能带来好处就推出新的融资方案。
They weren't coming out this last year having like a new pitch around data centers just because that would have gotten them.
因此，作为一家太空公司，它们极其——我可以说——脚踏实地，专注于开发约翰所说的、将在多种应用中极具价值的能力。
And so for being a space company, they're extremely, I would say, grounded, focused on developing capabilities that are gonna be, like John said, very valuable in a wide variety of applications.
这⾥⾯有一个非常困难的领域。
There's like one it's a very difficult space.
资本密集型。
Capital intensive.
虽然有一些公司正在把东西送入太空，但数量并不多。
There are not a lot of there's some there are a decent amount of companies that are sending stuff up to space.
能将东西带回地球的公司要少得多。
There are many fewer that are bringing stuff back down.
而且这个领域并没有变得非常竞争激烈，也没有十家左右的玩家。
And it's and it hasn't been a huge hugely competitive space where there's, like, 10 players.
我们去年在播客上请过一个人，叫Shaan，来介绍这家公司。
We we had someone, Shaan, on the pod, I think, like, last year explain this company.
他们详细讲解了为什么这家公司很酷。
And they went through this huge thing about why it was cool.
我们当时就问，制药公司为什么需要在太空中制造药物？
And we were like, why do pharmaceutical companies need to make drugs in space?
就像，他们忘了解释这一点。
Like, why like, didn't like, they forgot to explain Yeah.
他们没有解释这部分。
They didn't explain that part.
他们只是说，哦，这很棒，因为你可以，你知道，
They were like, oh, it's great because you can man like, know
不。
No.
不。
No.
在太空中制造的成本是地球上的上千倍，但有一些特定的化学品，比如非常稀有的物质。
Manufacturing thousand times more expensive than doing it on Earth, but there's just specific chemicals, like very rare things.
物理。
Physics.
但再说一遍，你必须把这看作是一个长达数十年的计划。
But but, again, you have to view this as as, you know, multi decade thing.
如果你相信太空事业，相信发射成本会持续下降，变得越来越便宜，那么你就站在了这一有趣趋势的前沿。
If you believe in space, if you believe that, you know, launch costs are gonna continue to fall, it's gonna get cheaper and cheaper, then there's, like, this interesting trend that you're on the frontier of.
没错。
And Right.
这家公司一直非常善于应对各种风波，无论是市场出现小幅抛售还是叙事发生变化，这家公司都管理得当。
The company's been very good at weathering storms, whether there's like some slight, you know, sell off in the market or the narrative changes, like, the the company's well managed.
所以，只要你能一直坚持下去，始终成为太空中最出色的公司，做最棒的太空相关事务。
And so if you can just keep getting through those and just always be the best space the the best company that, like, does stuff in space, basically.
这样很好。
Like, that's good.
你知道吗，我确实喜欢你这种观点，你是在顺应一个趋势——埃隆会不会在火箭技术上越来越出色？
You know, I I do like so I do like that you're riding the wave of basically, like, is Elon gonna get better at doing rockets?
是的。
Yep.
如果他真的做到了，那么把东西送入太空的每克成本就会持续下降。
And if he does, the cost per whatever, cost per gram to take something up into space is gonna keep falling.
是的。
Yep.
你的业务会不断变好，你只需要持续坚持下去，是的。
You just keep you get to keep your business keeps getting better Yep.
埃隆越努力，情况就越好。
The more hard work Elon does.
我挺喜欢这一点的
I kinda like that
总的来说，这是一个不错的论点。
in general as a as a thesis.
去年，蓝色起源公司成功着陆了他们的重型火箭。
So last year, Blue Origin landed their heavy rocket.
现在实际上已经有两枚了，这意味着真正的价格压力，这非常好。
And so now there's actual 's actually two of And their so that means real pricing pressure, which is like very, very good.
顺便说一下，我有两个离题的话题。
By the way, was this is I I have two two tangents.
是的。
Yeah.
我正在读埃隆的传记，虽然我读得有点晚，但我还挺喜欢的，因为大家都已经看完了，只有我还一直在里面翻来覆去地看。
I was reading the Elon biography, which I'm late to, but kinda I like it because every you know, everybody's out on everybody's done with it, and I'm the only guy, you know, still in there poking around.
有一段特别精彩。
There's an amazing section.
我不确定
I don't if
你们有没有读过这个？这是关于埃隆和贝佐斯之间关于发射事件的推文往来，那种被动攻击式的竞争。
you guys have read this, but it's about the tweets back and forth between Elon Elon and Bezos, the the sort of rival the the the passive aggressive rivalry around the launch thing.
萨姆，我不知道。
Sam, don't know.
你看过这个吗？
Have you seen this?
嗯，最近没有了。
Well, there's no recent ones.
贝佐斯刚发了乌龟的图片。
Bezos just posted the tortoise.
乌龟。
Tortoise.
他说他是乌龟。
Said I'm the tortoise.
他要进入乌龟模式了。
He's going tortoise mode.
他要进入乌龟模式了。
He's going tortoise mode.
慢而稳。
Slow and steady.
谁才是那个被动攻击的人？
Who's the passive aggressive one?
他们两个都是。
Both of them.
首先，蓝色起源是第一个实现可重复使用发射的公司，而埃隆非常想要做到这一点。
So first, so Blue Origin was like the first to do a reusable launch, which they Elon wanted badly.
对吧？
Right?
但蓝色起源升空了，不过基本上他们飞得并不高。
But Blue Origin went up, but he was basically like, they didn't go up very high.
是的。
Yep.
所以他们和他只是说，贝佐斯发了一张照片，说：天啊。
So they and so he was just like, he's like, Bezos posts a picture, be like, oh my god.
我们做到了。
We did it.
我站在这儿，旁边可能是地球上最稀有的物品之一——一枚可重复使用的火箭，或者说是已重复使用过的火箭。
I'm standing next to one of the the perhaps the rarest item on earth, a reusable rocket or a or a reused rocket a a reused rocket.
稀有。
Rare.
他基本上在说，这太稀有了。
And he's saying basically, that's so rare.
你从来没见过重复使用的火箭。
You never see a reused rocket.
对。
Yeah.
然后埃隆说，恭喜，但或许还不是最罕见的。
And then Elon goes, congratulations, but perhaps not the rarest.
是的。
Yes.
因为如果算上亚轨道跳跃，SpaceX已经做到了六次。
Because SpaceX has done that six times if we're counting suborbital hops.
然后你就觉得，你的火箭飞得不够高。
And then it was just like kinda like your your rocket doesn't go high enough.
当埃隆一个月后成功时，贝索斯说，恭喜埃隆。
And then when Elon did it like a month later, Bezos was like, congratulations to Elon.
一次非常出色的亚轨道发射。
A really excellent suborbital launch.
是的。
Yeah.
最出色的亚轨道发射之一。
One of the best suborbital launches.
埃隆说：‘去你的，兄弟。’
And Elon was like, fuck you, dude.
它飞得那么高，但严格来说，确实还是亚轨道飞行。
It was so high, but technically, yes, was still suborbital.
这真有趣。
That's funny.
他们一直在互相说‘恭喜，但……’，我就特别喜欢这种互动。
And they've been basically going back and forth with these, like, congratulations, but and I just kinda love it.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
我爱这种小气劲儿。
I love the pettiness.
是的。
Yeah.
本期节目由HubSpot赞助。
Today's episode is brought to you by HubSpot.
你知道吗？大多数企业只使用了他们20%的数据？
Did you know that most businesses only use 20% of their data?
这就像读一本书，却把五分之四的页面撕掉了。
That's like reading a book but then tearing out four fifths of the pages.
关键是，你会错过很多东西。
Point is you miss a lot.
除非你使用HubSpot——这个客户平台能让你获取推动业务增长所需的数据，那些藏在邮件、通话记录、转录文本中的洞察，所有这些非结构化数据都至关重要，因为你知道得越多，成长得就越多。
And unless you're using HubSpot, the customer platform that gives you access to the data you need to grow your business, the insights that are trapped in emails, call logs, transcripts, all that unstructured data makes all the difference Because when you know more, you grow more.
所以，如果你想读完整本书，而不是只读一部分，请访问hubspot.com。
And so if you wanna read the whole book instead of just reading part of it, visit hubspot.com.
好吧。
Alright.
我们继续下一个吧。
Let's move on to the next one.
我们来看下一个是什么？
What do we got?
轮到你了，我想。
Back to you, I think.
好的。
Okay.
我来做一个。
I'll do one.
好的。
Okay.
我的下一个是Suno。
My next one is Suno.
好的。
Okay.
我以前谈过Suno。
I've talked about Suno before.
如果你不知道，Suno基本上是一个应用程序或网站，你可以在那里创作音乐，即使你没有任何音乐天赋。
If you don't know, Suno is basically a app or a website you go to, and you can make music even if you've got no musical talent.
对吧？
Right?
所以你可以直接去那里，描述你想要的歌曲类型。
So you can just go on there, describe the type of song you want.
也许你会带上你的歌词，也许不会。
Maybe you bring your lyrics, maybe you don't.
也许你只是给它一个感觉，然后你实际上是在用感觉编码音乐。
Maybe you just give it a vibe, and you basically are vibe coding music.
太神奇了。
It's amazing.
我沉迷于这个应用。
I'm addicted to the app.
我经常用它。
I use it all the time.
我可能已经创作了大约四五十首歌。
I've probably made, I don't know, 40 or 50 songs.
我已经在这上面花掉了数万积分。
I've burned tens of thousands credits on this thing.
我真没想到它这么上瘾，做起来这么有趣。
I got it's crazy how addictive it is, how fun it is to do.
我觉得这家公司还有很长的路要走。
And I just think this company has a long way to run.
目前它的估值是20.25亿美元左右。
So right now, valued at $2.02 and a half billion, something like that.
是的。
Yep.
它们的年经常性收入（ARR）达到了2亿。
They have 200,000,000 in ARR.
所以这不像那种只是
So it's not like an AI app that's like
现在年经常性收入（ARR）已经达到3亿了。
300,000,000 in ARR now.
三亿。
300,000,000.
好吧。
All right.
疯狂。
Crazy.
最新消息。
Breaking news.
我们现在有三亿了，而且我见到了创始人。
We got the 300,000,000 now And so I met the founder.
你知道，我真的很喜欢他们所追求的东西。
You know, I really like kind of what they're all about.
是的。
Yeah.
而且他们刚刚与一家音乐唱片公司达成了授权协议，这很重要。
And they they also just struck a deal with their licensing company with a musical music label, which is important.
简单来说，这是它的优势所在。
Basically, the the the here's the upside.
因为我想，好吧。
Because I was like, okay.
这已经达到了20.25亿美元。
This is already at $2.02 and a half billion.
它有五倍的增长潜力吗？
Does this have that five x potential?
我做了一些计算，发现SoundCloud上有四千万名音乐创作者。
And I was doing some math, and it basically SoundCloud has 40,000,000 music creators.
好吧。
Okay.
也就是说，全球有四千万人，他们确实有音乐才华，并在平台上发布作品。
So that's 40,000,000 people who around the world who actually have musical talent that are publishing on the platform.
Suno在平台上的用户只有两百万。
Suno's only at 2,000,000 users on their platform.
所以他们仍然，这些是那些不需要具备音乐才能或技能的人。
So they still they and that's that's people who don't have to have the musical talent part, the skill.
因此，不会作曲但愿意创作音乐的人群市场规模，可能会达到一千万、两千万，甚至更多，可能是真正音乐创作者数量的五十倍。
And so the the the market for number of people who will make music that don't know how to make music is gonna be something like ten, twenty, possibly more than that, possibly 50 x the number of actual musicians who create music.
所以我觉得，这件事还有巨大的发展空间。
So I just think I think this thing has an incredible long way to run.
如果每周有数亿人在这平台上创作音乐，我一点也不感到惊讶。
I would not be surprised if there were hundreds of millions of weekly active users of people who are making music on this thing.
当你算一算这能带来多少收益时，因为人们愿意为此付费。
And when you do the math of what that turns into, because people are willing to pay.
对吧？
Right?
想象一下，不用练习，不用上音乐课，也不用做那些烦人的事。
Like, imagine not having to like practice or do music lessons or any of that shit.
你只需支付15美元，然后砰的一下，你就成了音乐人。
You just pay $15 and boom, you're a musician.
对吧？
Right?
这简直是一个超棒的交易。
Like, it's kind of an amazing trade to make.
我觉得这件事还有很长的路要走。
So I think this thing has a long way to run.
我认为Suno将成为一家价值超过500亿美元的公司。
I think Suno becomes a $50,000,000,000 plus company.
如果你现在加入，这也会是一个非常有趣的公司，因为你正在参与前沿领域，但又不是像在太空中制造东西那样。
It'd be also a really fun company to join if you joined right now because you'd be doing something that's both on the frontier, but it's not like manufacturing in space.
也不是那种真正的、像火箭科学一样的技术。
It's not like actual, like, rocket science.
是的。
Yeah.
而你只是在参与一种文化。
And you're just a part of culture.
它将成为文化的重要组成部分，如果你要在这样的地方工作，这总是很有趣的。
It's gonna become a big part of culture, which is always fun if you're gonna work somewhere.
你们觉得这些公司怎么样？我们刚才还在笑。
What do you guys think about these companies that are you you we were laughing.
我想我们说过，它们两年前成立，现在收入已达三亿美元。
I think we said they were launched two years ago, and they're at 300,000,000 in revenue.
它们有持久的生命力吗？
Does that have longevity?
你得问几个问题。
Have You to ask a couple questions.
第一个问题是，这是一时风潮吗？
One is, is it a fad?
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这会不会就像，我不知道，Dubsmash 或者类似的东西，大家都会试一次，就像年鉴照片那样，然后就再也没有理由回头了。
Do I think this is just like is it like, I don't know, whatever, dubsmash or like, know, one of these things where it's like, everyone's gonna try it once, like the yearbook photo thing, and then there's really no reason to come back again.
我不认为这是一种潮流。
I don't think this is fad.
我认为人们会持续想要创作内容。
I think people are gonna wanna keep creating stuff.
第二点是，这将面临太多竞争。
The second thing is it's gonna have too much competition.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
而且我认为它们处于一个相对孤立的状态，因为所有大型模型公司可能都不会把这当作主要战场，它们现在有太多更重要的战役要打。
And I do think that they're kind of on an island where all the big model companies are probably not going to this isn't the kind of primary war front, and they have so many, like, bigger battles that they're fighting right now.
我觉得Suno在一段时间内可能不会遇到有力竞争，因为这不是OpenAI或Anthropic打算推出并推向主流的主要产品。
I kind of think Suno is gonna go uncontested for a little while longer where it's not the main thing that OpenAI or Anthropic is gonna try to roll out and make mainstream.
所以我认为，通过专注和专业化，它们已经内置了很多其他功能。
And so I think by focusing and specializing you know, they have a lot of other stuff built in.
比如，当你创作一首歌时，它们提供了一个编辑器，你可以获取分轨并实际混音这首歌，还拥有一个发现平台。
Like, if you make the song, they have like an editor where you get the stems and you can actually, like, remix the song and they have like a discovery platform.
他们还有很多深度可以挖掘。
Like, there's a lot more depth that they can go into.
所以我认为它之所以能持续存在，是因为它不在全球最高水平对决的瞄准范围内，也就是OpenAI和Yeah这些巨头正在激烈竞争的领域。
So I think that what why it would be around is because it's not in the crosshairs of all the, you know, the highest Elo battle in the world, the genius battle, which is like, you know, what OpenAI and Yeah.
你知道的，Grok和Anthropic都在做的那些事。
You know, Grok and Anthropic are all doing.
那些兄弟们，Yeah。
What what are the bros Yeah.
我认为你所表达的意思是，Suno之于AI音乐，就像ChatGPT之于大型语言模型一样，是进入这一领域的入口。
I think I think what what you're getting at is basically like Suno is the front door to AI music in the way that ChatGPT has been the front door to out large language models.
这具有很大的价值。
That has a lot of value.
我曾向一位在音乐行业工作了十年的朋友提出过非常相似的观点。
I made I made a pretty similar case to a friend who had worked in the music industry for the last decade.
他是一位真正的音乐人，曾经环游世界巡演。
He's a real musician, you know, has gone on tour all over the world.
他有机会在差不多的估值时加入Suno。
He had the opportunity to join Suno at around the same valuation.
我对他说，你知道吗，你整个职业生涯都在音乐行业，未来十年这个行业增长会在哪里？
And I said, you know, I think like you've worked in the music industry your whole career, where's the growth gonna be in the industry over the next ten years?
无论人们喜不喜欢，增长都会在AI领域。
It's gonna be in AI whether or not people like it.
我认为Suno所触及的，正是那些氛围编程工具所触及的——数十亿人有开发应用的想法，但相对而言，真正能构建应用的人非常少。
And I think what Suno's tapped into is the same thing that the vibe coding tools have tapped into where billions of people have an idea for an app, but like very, very few people relatively can actually build an app.
而现在有了五步编程，任何人都能开发应用。
And now with five coding, anybody can build an app.
音乐也是如此。
Same thing with music.
每个人都曾有过创作一首歌的想法，或者能想出一首歌的创意，哪怕只是以最简单的方式创作——我们听说过一些故事，比如有人每晚都和孩子一起创作一首新的睡前歌曲，用来帮助孩子安静下来、入睡等等。
Everybody's had an idea for a song or could come up with an idea for a song that would, you know, create even in the most simple way, you know, creating, we've heard stories from people that, you know, every single night they make a new bedtime song with their kids, right, to kind of like motivate the kids to settle down or go to sleep or whatever.
因此，有太多美妙的时刻。
And so there's so many magical moments.
这是一种可能引发病毒式传播的现象，人们一旦意识到它的存在，就会创作出大量歌曲，甚至可能形成网络迷因。
It's the kind of thing that can have these sort of viral moments where people like realize it's available, create all these songs or there's like memes that could form.
但我觉得，人们会持续回到这种体验。
But it has this like kind of like, I think people will continue to come back to it.
我同意你的看法，
So I'm with you,
那么Spotify的市值会怎样呢？
What happens to Spotify's market cap then?
Spotify的市值应该能抵御这种冲击，因为它是音乐创作的工具，而音乐仍会通过Spotify分发。
Spotify's market cap should be resistant to this because it's a tool for creating music, and music will be distributed on Spotify.
所以Spotify从未推出过Ableton或Fruity Loops的竞争对手。
And so Spotify never created an Ableton competitor or Fruity Loops competitor.
他们从未销售过吉他。
They never sold guitars.
他们从未销售过任何音乐创作工具。
They never sold any tools to to create music.
他们可能会推出一些竞争对手，但我
They might wind up launching some competitor, but I
如果你仔细想想，Spotify 处于一个相当棘手的境地。
I Spotify is in kind of a tough spot if you think about it.
如果 Spotify 推出一个 AI 工具，与平台上那些顶级艺术家争夺听众时间，这些艺术家会怎么想？
If they what what what would what would all the biggest artists on on Spotify think of Spotify coming out with an AI tool that is competing for listening time with those artists.
所以，Spotify 如果贸然进入这个领域，很可能会激怒平台上的许多艺术家。
So it's like, it's they're kind of in a position where Spotify can't jump into this without infuriating a lot of the artists on the platform.
因此，我认为 Suno 很可能蚕食 Spotify 的听众时间。
So I I think it's possible that Suno could eat into the listening time of Spotify.
是的。
Yeah.
但很难想象，我会订阅 Suno 却不订阅 Spotify。
But it's hard to imagine a world where I subscribe to Suno and I don't subscribe
我觉得这就像 Sora、Instagram Reels、Google 的 VEO 3 和 YouTube Shorts 的关系。
I would just see it similar to Sora and Instagram Reels or v o three from Google and YouTube Shorts.
人们会刷这些动态。
Like, people will be scrolling these feeds.
大多数人并不想要最好的AI。
They most people don't want any best AI.
他们只希望一百个短视频中有一个是真正出色、有趣、由AI创作的。
And so they want one out of a 100 reels to be actually great AI funny inspired.
而Spotify上的听众想听的是那些热门金曲和大家都知道的歌，然后他们可能会想听那一首爆红的AI生成歌曲。
And people on Spotify will wanna listen to the hits and the songs that everyone knows, and then they might wanna listen to that one breakout AI generated song.
但无论谁在Suno上创作出那首神曲，只需一分钟就能导出并上传到Spotify，Spotify就能立即实现盈利。
But it's just gonna take one minute for whoever creates that banger on Suno to export it, upload it to Spotify, and Spotify will be able to instantly monetize it.
所以我不认为这会对Spotify构成重大威胁。
So I wouldn't see it as, like, a major threat to Spotify.
这里还有一点有趣的潜在保护：如果你想想Suno估值25亿美元，如果它没能达到起飞速度，谁会收购它呢？
There's also some interesting, like, downside protection here that it just if you if you think about Suno at 2 and a half billion, who could possibly acquire them if they don't make it to Escape Velocity?
而Spotify有市值，亚马逊也可能把它整合进Amazon Echo里。
And, like, Spotify has the market cap, but also Amazon could put it in Amazon Echoes.
这可能是苹果的事。
It could be an Apple thing.
这可能是谷歌的事。
It could be a Google thing.
这可能是OpenAI的事。
It could be an OpenAI thing.
像这样的公司还有很多，它们都有足够的市值和规模来接手这项技术，为所有人带来好的结果。
Like, there's so many other companies that have the market cap and scale to just pick this up and make it a good outcome for everyone.
另一点是，我知道传统音乐产业已经在使用Suno，但他们不想谈论这个，因为这仍然有争议。
The other thing is I know the industry, like the traditional music industry is using Suno, but they don't wanna talk about it because it's still controversial.
我听一个朋友说，他的朋友是不同艺人的和声歌手。
I heard from a friend that their friend was a backup vocalist for different artists.
也就是说，一位录音室歌手，他们的工作是：有人写了一首歌，他们就进录音室把这首歌唱出来，然后制作出样本，分发给那些会竞标这首歌的艺人。
So like a studio vocalist, their job would be to go into the, somebody would write a song, their job would be to go into the studio and sing the song and then sample would be taken around to artists that would effectively like bid on it.
所以歌手会以一位艺人的风格演唱，再以另一位艺人的风格演唱，让别人感受不同的效果。
And so the vocalist would like sing it in the style of one artist, sing it in the style of another artist to give people a feel for it.
他们说，那个人的收入从过去二十年来靠哼歌维持，一下子跌到了零，因为你现在只需输入歌词，就能生成任何艺术家风格的歌曲。
And they said that that person's revenue went from, humming along for the last twenty years, like effectively to zero, because you can now just generate any, you take the lyrics, you generate it in the style of any artist.
因此，对这位个体而言，职业生涯面临的挑战是：没人会雇用备份歌手去巡演，对吧？
And so the challenge for that individual in their career is nobody, people that don't hire backup, a backup, like a backup guitarist can go and tour with a band, right?
因为观众是来看主唱或主角的。
Because people are there to see like the front man or whatever.
但备份歌手并没有真正的巡演需求，想象一下，你买了一张最爱歌手的票，结果台上却是别人在唱。
But a backup vocalist, there's not really like touring demand because imagine you get a ticket to your favorite artists and then there's just like someone else singing.
你觉得自己没花得值。
You're like not really getting your money's worth.
所以它正在颠覆互联网的某些领域。
So certain like already disrupting certain corners of the internet.
我认为目前阻碍Suno发展的部分原因，是主流艺人不愿谈论它，因为他们知道会引来负面反应。
And I think that part of what's holding Suno back right now is just that the main artists will not talk about it because they know they're gonna get blowback.
但这种情况最终会改变
But that'll eventually Which
产品是有效的，是的。
product works, yeah.
有意思。
Interesting.
好吧，
Alright,
你们接下来要
you guys Next gonna do
选择。
pick.
是的，我们继续看TrueMed吧，我觉得它和健康医疗有趣地相关。
Yeah, let's move on to TrueMed cause I think it relates to hone health interestingly.
我们还有一些其他硬科技项目。
We have a couple other hard tech stuff.
但TrueMed是一家由贾斯汀·马雷斯创立的金融科技公司。
But TrueMed is a fintech company founded by Justin Mares.
我想我们都认识他。
I think we all know him.
他以前是节目的嘉宾。
Former guest to the show.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得我们大家都很欣赏他，虽然我不代表你们所有人，但他属于那种让人崇拜的类型。
I think we all have well, I don't wanna speak for you guys, but he's in the man crush category.
他算是个
He's kind of a
是的。
Yeah.
他非常了不起。
He's a Pretty amazing.
太棒了。
Killer.
查德。
Chad.
TrueMed 通过嵌入式远程医疗处理资格审核，在在线结账时添加了符合规定的 HSA（健康储蓄账户）或 FSA 支付按钮。
So TrueMed adds a compliant pay with HSA, health health savings account or FSA button, to online checkouts by handling eligibility through embedded telehealth.
所以，当你在线购买肽类、Eight Sleep、补充剂或任何其他改善健康的商品时，通过 HSA 或 FSA 使用税前资金支付，能带来经济优势和税务减免。
So when you go to whether it's peptides that are going to be popular or Eight Sleeps or supplements or whatever you're doing to improve your health, if you're going to do it online, there's an there's an economic advantage, a tax savings from paying for it with pretax dollars through your HSA or FSA.
因此，TrueMed 就是为这一切提供的一层整合服务。
And so TrueMed is this, like, layer on all of that.
这样你就不会面临太多单一趋势的风险。
So you don't have as much, like, individual trend risk.
比如，这个月或今年蛋白质是不是比肌酸更受欢迎？
Like, oh, is protein more popular than creatine this this month or this year?
只要健康持续成为趋势，你就像是那艘随着涨潮而上升的船，
Like, as long as health continues to be a trend, you're sort of like the rising
通过投资健康领域的指数基金来买入。
tide buying, like investing in an index fund for wellness.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Exactly.
他们将从美国流向健康产品的巨大交易量中抽取一笔分成。
They're gonna be taking a cut of a huge amount of the volume going towards wellness products in The US.
我和我的朋友布莱恩和查理一起创办了一家公司叫Aurora，我们是TrueMed的忠实用户。
We I started a company called Aurora with my friends Brian and Charlie and and we're we're a happy TrueMed customer.
TrueMed的抽成比例非常高，远高于传统支付服务商。
TrueMed has a very meaningful take rate, a bigger take rate than a traditional kind of payment provider.
但这是一个很好的权衡，因为你能够销售更多附加产品，因为人们可以以享受税收优惠的方式购买。
But it's a great trade because you're able to sell incremental product because people are able to buy it in a tax advantage way.
我完全认同这家公司的整个使命。
And I'm just like an incredibly firm believer in the entire mission of the company.
我认为预防。
Think that Prevention.
我们知道跑步会延长你的健康寿命，增加你的寿命。
We know that running is going to increase your health span, increase your lifespan.
你应该允许人们将这类产品作为预防性治疗来购买。
You should be able to let people purchase products like this as of preventative a treatment.
这位创始人太棒了，有着非常强劲的顺风因素，而且作为客户体验也非常好。
So incredible founder, like very very strong tailwinds and great experience as a customer.
你的公司叫什么，乔迪？
What's your company, Jordi?
Rora，rorra.com。
Rora, rorra.com.
那是净水器吗？
Is that the water filter?
是的。
Yeah.
所以休伯曼，安德鲁·休伯曼很早就成了那里的合作伙伴，这太棒了。
So Huberman, Andrew Huberman's kind of been an early partner there, which is awesome.
那就是我。
And that that was me.
我知道你参与了创办这个品牌。
Know you helped start that.
是的。
Yeah.
所以多年前，我偶然间接触到了水危机问题，开始研究这一领域的各种解决方案，最终觉得这个品类需要一个像戴森那样的品牌——一个极度专注于研发、并以多种不同形态生产产品的品牌，因为你在日常生活中不断接触水，无论是淋浴、泡澡、饮用水，还是全屋过滤系统等等。
So I stumbled into kind of the kind of water crisis years ago at this point and started looking at all the solutions in the category and and kind of ultimately felt like there needed to be kind of like a Dyson type brand in the categories, a brand that was like incredibly focused on R and D and making products in a variety of different form factors because you're constantly interacting with water in your day to day life, whether it's in your shower, bath, drinking water, whole home filters, etcetera.
是的，这个市场是不是还比较新？
And yeah, the market is was Are you quite new?
我之所以有动力做这件事，是因为我儿子一直长湿疹。
It was like something I was personally motivated by because my son had kept getting eczema.
我有个六个月大的孩子长湿疹，我一直在追踪原因，最后发现是我们用的自来水洗澡导致的。
I had like a six month old getting eczema, and I was like trying to track down where like, why it was happening, and it ultimately was like tap water baths that we clocked.
于是，我解决了这个问题，意识到其中存在机会，便与查理和布莱恩合作将其落地，他们做得非常出色。
And so, like, solving that and then realizing there was an opportunity and and partnered with Charlie and and Brian to bring it to life, and they've absolutely crushed it.
你就是Jordi吧？我知道，我一直在线上关注你。
Are you sort of, Jordi, the you know, I I follow you online.
在Party Round之前，我就已经关注你的工作很多年了。
I've I've followed your work for years before, I think, even Party Round.
是的。
Yeah.
你是两个人中的设计师吗？
Are you the design of the two?
还是两个人里负责设计的那位？
Or the design guy of the two?
因为你看起来一直很有审美眼光。
Because you seem like you've you've had an eye for aesthetics, like, for a while.
对。
Yeah.
我通常会这么认为。
I would I would I would generally say so.
我的意思是，约翰对这类事情有着极佳的品味和直觉。
I mean, John John has great taste and and instinct around this stuff.
但我一直特别热爱广告、营销和产品设计。
But I've I've just loved, like, advertising, marketing, product design.
从我还是个孩子的时候起，我就对它着迷了。
I've been obsessed with it since I was since I was a boy, basically.
小时候，我特别热衷于滑板、冲浪和滑雪板运动。
Was super into like skateboarding and surfing and snowboarding growing up.
因此，我很早就开始思考，为什么市面上有100美元的滑雪板，而我却特别想要那个800美元的？于是我反过来研究，逐渐理解了设计、品牌和广告等方方面面。
And so I had this sort of like, I was trying to figure out from a very young age, like, why there was like a snowboard available for $100 but I really wanted the one that was $800 And so, kind of working backwards from that and understanding design and brand and advertising and all these things.
因此，TBPN的成功部分源于我们对品牌的执着，我认为这正是播客历史上通常不会太重视的——比如，只想着设计一下封面图。
And so, bringing that in, I mean, that's the success of TBPN is due in part to our obsession with brand, which is I think something that podcasts historically would think about, okay, let's design our cover art.
当我们推出《Technology Brothers》这个原始播客时，Shaan第一次告诉我的就是这件事。
That was the first thing Shaan's told me when we launched Technology Brothers, the original podcast.
我当时觉得，你给我发了一条特别用心的消息。
I was like, you you sent me a really nice message.
你当时说，我觉得这个能成。
You were like, I think this is gonna work.
我觉得这就是我们要做的事。
I think this is the thing.
你得全职投入这件事。
You gotta go full time on this.
去做吧。
Do it.
去做吧。
Do it.
我当时就说，好。
And I was like, yeah.
看起来数据还不错。
Like, it seems like the numbers are pretty good.
我当时想得太多，而你却说，别这样。
I was being very wonky, and you were like, no.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我的意思是，这是一个品牌，你真的突破了，创造出了某种具有独特氛围和感觉的品牌。
Like, this is a brand that like like, you've actually broken through and created something that feels it has a feeling around it like brand.
我当时想，是啊，这几乎全是 Jordi 的功劳。
I was like, yeah, that's like a lot that's almost all Jordi.
我尽可能多地帮了忙。
I helped as much as I could with it.
但真正创造这个世界和这个品牌的创意，我们玩得非常开心。
But just the idea to actually create this world and this brand, we had a lot of fun with.
是的。
Yeah.
而媒体最让人上瘾的地方在于，你实际上在做产品开发，但反馈周期却非常迅速。
And the fun the the thing that's addicting about media is you're doing, like, basically product development, but the feedback loops are so rapid.
每天。
Every day.
所以，比如Aurora，我们本来有个想法要建立一家净水器公司，但研发过程从想法到真正推出产品花了十八个月左右。
So, like, with Aurora, it's like we have this idea to build a water filter company, but then the r and d process was, like, eighteen months or something between, like, idea to actually shipping a product.
是的。
Yeah.
而做媒体的话，从想法到产品就像在非常快速的周期里完成，通常是几小时到二十四小时的循环。
And then with media, it's like idea to product like in like these really rapid, you know, hour long twenty four hour cycles.
我觉得我们喜欢这一点，因为我们可能会坐在那里，比如周五的时候，会说：好吧，
And that's like something that I think we love because we'll be sitting here, you know, we'll be sitting there on a Friday and be like, okay,
我们应该在屏幕底部加个股票代码。
we should have a stock ticker on the bottom.
对。
Yeah.
所以，
So,
你们在坚持品牌规范方面有纪律性吗？还是有时候会因为这很难，确实需要
are you guys disciplined with sticking within your brand parameters or sometimes like, because it, because that could be hard and it requires, it does require
纪律。
discipline.
我认为必须不断进化。
I think gotta constantly be evolving.
想想滑板、冲浪和滑雪板品牌，任何固守旧模式、不拓展、不与时俱进、不反映文化的品牌，最终都失败了。
And I mean, look back to like the skate and surf and snowboard brands, like any brand that was just like stuck in their way and didn't kind of expand and evolve and and reflect culture, like ultimately just didn't make it.
对吧？
Right?
这些品牌现在你回头去买，还能重新带回来，但现代品牌必须具有灵活性。
These are brands that now you could go back and buy and like bring back into the But modern yeah, it has to be flexible.
从‘Technology Brothers’更名为‘TBPN’，对我们来说是一个重要的转折点。
I mean, the transition from being called Technology Brothers to TBPN was like a big moment for us.
很多人会说，‘Technology Brothers’是个很棒的品牌。
A lot of people would have said like Technology Brothers is a great brand.
当时我们已经在X领域达到了饱和状态。
We had already kind of like saturated X at the time.
所以我们虽然规模小，但人们都知道我们。
So we were small but people knew about us.
因此我们知道，要成为我们想要的媒体公司，这种转变是必要的。
And so we knew that that was gonna be necessary to evolve into becoming the kind of media company that we wanted to be.
但是的，我认为你需要对持续进化有坚定的承诺。
But yeah, I think you need a commitment to evolving.
我认为互联网让你能够突破以往关于品牌和广告的观念，那些观念诞生于一个需要长期规划印刷、电视营销和目录等媒介的时代。
And I think the internet allows you a lot of like the ideas that people have had around like brand and advertising were created in a world where you're doing like long term planning around like print and television marketing and catalogs and things like that.
而现在有了互联网，你可以非常迅速地迭代想法，快速进化你的品牌。
And now with the Internet, you can just like iterate on on ideas so rapidly and evolve your brand so rapidly.
只需点击几下，就能彻底更新你自己。
And it's like a few clicks to like fully update yourself.
因此，我认为我们公司唯一不变的是那种我们试图营造的感觉——我们希望人们在与品牌互动时所感受到的那种氛围。
And so I think the only consistent thing for our company is like the feeling that we're trying to create kind of like what we want people to feel when interacting with the brand.
我认为这一点必须保持一致，因为这才是品牌本身。
And I think that that has to stay consistent because like that is the brand.
它并不一定是你当时使用的任何特定标志。
It's not necessarily like whatever logo, whatever your logo is at any one given point.
老兄，这太棒了。
Dude, that's great.
你们是
You guys are
我们回到清单上来吧？
Shall we get back to the list?
我们开始吧。
Let's do it.
萨姆，我想说的是，我第一家创业公司是一家滑板公司。
Sam, last thing I would say my first ever company was a skateboard company.
那对我来说，在12岁的时候是一个转折点。
And was like the pivotal moment for me at 12 years old.
我在中西部找到一个人，愿意为我生产滑板板面。
I found somebody in the Midwest that would manufacture skateboard decks for me.
所以那虽然不是我的第一个百万美元，但却是我第一次通过制作产品赚到100美元。
So that was like, that wasn't my first million, but that was my first my first time making a $100 from building a product.
那真是一个难以置信的时刻。
And that was such an insane moment.
我当时想，你会做出这个，然后我可以贴上我的标志去卖它？
I was like, you'll make this and then I get to put my logo on it and sell it?
这简直是世界上最棒的事情。
Like, this is the most amazing thing ever.
所以，这是我第一次打造任何类型品牌的经验，那就是J Man Designs。
And so that was like my first experience building any type of brand was J Man Designs.
我家里办公室里还留着一块J Man的滑板。
I still J Man have a board in my home office.
我觉得当我意识到，嘿，你真的可以自己制造东西时，那就是我的顿悟时刻。
And I think that once I realized like, hey, you can just that was my moment of like, you can just make things.
世界上你看到的一切都是一个生意。
Everything you see in the world is a business.
你完全没有理由不能自己打造一个。
And there's no reason that you can't build it yourself.
我们有时候必须去玩点刺激的。
We have to shred the gnar sometimes.
我到现在还在滑板。
I still skate.
是的。
Yeah.
我在那些视频里看到过你滑板，简直太厉害了。
I've seen you are incredible at skating in those videos.
对。
Yeah.
我十几岁的时候就意识到，这个爱好会毁掉你的身体。
You I realized I realized by, like, a teenager, I was like, this is a hobby that that destroys your body.
所以我转去冲浪了。
So I switched to surfing.
我真不敢相信你还能做到这一点。
I can't believe you can still do that.
每次我看到那个视频，都觉得太疯狂了。
It's every time I see that video, it's, like, insane.
总之。
Anyway.
是的。
Yeah.
我仍然喜欢全力以赴。
I I I still like to get after it.
我想当我四十岁的时候，还能玩单杠。
I wanna be a 40 year old man doing handrails still.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
你赚到钱之后会怎么用它？
What do you do with the money once you've already made it?
这个问题我和沙恩经常问我们成功的嘉宾。
This is a question Shaan and I ask our successful guests all the time.
我们问这个问题的原因是，如果你成功了，手头有了一些钱，关于如何花或投资这些钱的信息其实非常难找。
And the reason we ask it is because if you are successful, if you do have a little bit of money, information on how to spend or invest your money, it's actually really hard to come by.
我知道这一点，因为在我创办的社群Hampton里，人们经常问这个问题。
And I know this because inside of Hampton, which is my community of founders, people ask this question all the time.
有些人已经赚了1000万或5000万美元。
People have made 10 or $50,000,000.
你该怎么花这些钱？
How do you spend it?
你该怎么投资这些钱？
How do you invest it?
为了解决这个问题并回答这个疑问，我实际上采访了80多位创始人，比如斯科特·戈洛韦、亚历克斯·拉莫斯和布莱恩·约翰逊，这些人身家高达五千万、一亿甚至数十亿美元。
And so to help solve this problem and answer this question, I actually interviewed 80 plus founders, guys like Scott Galloway, Alex Ramosy, Brian Johnson, people who are worth 50, 100, even billions of dollars.
我们让他们透露了一切。
And we got them to reveal everything.
包括他们的净资产、自己拿多少薪水、每月开销、投资组合等等。
So their net worths, how much they pay themselves, their monthly expenses, their portfolio, things like that.
我们把这些80次访谈整理成了一份文档，我认为你几乎不可能在互联网上找到这种信息，而且它完全是免费的。
And we turned these 80 interviews into one document, and I don't think you can find this type of information literally anywhere on the Internet, and it's completely free.
所以，如果你想了解那些身家数十亿美元的人的净资产、投资组合、开销等一切细节，请前往 join hampton.com/reveal。
So if you wanna see behind the net worth of people who are worth billions of dollars and their portfolios, their expenses, everything, you go to join hampton.com/reveal.
再次提醒，前往 join hampton.com/reveal。
Again, join hampton.com/reveal.
去看看吧。
Check it out.
好的。
Alright.
好的。
Alright.
我该分享我的吗？
Should I do mine?
你们肯定会笑话我。
You guys are gonna make fun of me.
我的下一个词是准备。
My my next one is Prepare.
自我推广。
Self promote y.
我太喜欢这个了。
I love this.
不。
No.
这太棒了。
This is amazing.
这是？哦，我太投入了。
Is this oh, I'm so into it.
哦
Oh
我的天啊。
my god.
各位。
Guys.
听好了。
Here's the deal.
我本来以为你会这么做。
I thought I thought you might do this.
我本来想取笑你，但我想了想，嘿。
I was gonna make fun of you, but I said, hey.
这就对了。
It just makes Okay.
我选了HubSpot，但事实上，可能有三五十家甚至上百家公司在这种情况下都适合。
I picked HubSpot, but the reality is is there's probably 30 or 50 or a 100 companies that could go in this case here.
SaaSpocalypse，我们是这么叫它的吗？
The SaaSpocalypse, was that what we're calling it?
是的。
Yep.
疯狂。
Insane.
对我来说太疯狂了。
Insane to me.
所以HubSpot，我认为它们的股价在900.08美元左右达到峰值。
So HubSpot, I think they peaked around $900.08 $50 a share.
然后下跌了。
Went down.
我认为最近的低点是200美元，我觉得这太疯狂了。
I think the low recently was $200 I think that is insane.
HubSpot，当然，你可以替换成很多其他公司，情况可能都差不多。
HubSpot, and again, sub this out with so many different companies, and it's probably the same story.
HubSpot的年收入为30亿美元，市值却高达140亿美元。
HubSpot does $3,000,000,000 in revenue with a $14,000,000,000 market cap.
他们预计到2026年收入将达到37亿美元。
Think that is They're projecting to do 3,700,000,000.0 in '26.
所以你是在以大约三倍营收的估值，购买一家订阅制软件公司，而我认为企业根本不会轻易放弃这种服务。
So you're buying a subscription software company that I don't think people are going to tear out of their business at something like three x revenue.
比如，人人都在谈论Twitter上那些极客，而我也是其中之一，他们都在说要自己搭建CRM系统。
Like, everyone talks about like all the nerds on Twitter, which I'm one of them, are talking about like building their own CRMs.
也许，确实有些极客在这么做。
Maybe, maybe the nerds are doing that.
但一个位于田纳西州、只有20名员工的屋顶公司，短期内根本不会这么做。
But a roofing company with 20 employees in Tennessee, they ain't gonna be doing it anytime soon.
所以我认为，关于HubSpot以及众多类似公司的这种担忧，被夸大了。
And so I do think that there's a lot of I think this is overblown with them plus however many companies.
我记得好像还看到过monday.com的例子。
Think I saw monday.com, I think it was.
是的
Yeah.
我认为他们的收入达到十亿美元，市值约为20亿美元，差不多是这样。
I think they do a billion in revenue at a $2,000,000,000 market cap, something like that.
我记不清具体数字了。
I forget exactly.
我觉得这太疯狂了。
And I think that's insane.
这些SaaS公司面临的看空观点是，我认为按座位收费的模式有点荒谬，因为你们还记得前几天那篇Sub Sack的文章吗？文章讲的是一个家伙讲述AI会变得如此强大，以至于人们将不再工作。
The bear case with some of these SaaS companies is I do think the seat model is a little bit insane because like, do you guys remember just the other day that Sub Sack article went live where it was basically a guy telling a story about how like AI is gonna be so good that people aren't gonna work.
如果他们不工作了，就不会买东西。
And if they aren't gonna work, they're not gonna buy stuff.
这就引发了一个问题：如果软件公司是按座位收费的，
And so it does kind of, like, beg the question if, like, software companies do pay per seat.
如果员工数量减少，比如Square最近裁员了40%的员工，或者类似的情况。
If you have less employees, Square just laid off however many people, 40% of their staff or whatever.
因为按席位收费的模式，他们还需要以同样的速度继续购买软件吗？
Like, do they need to continue buying software at the same rate that they were because of the seat model?
这就是所谓的看空观点。
That's, like, the bear case.
但我认为所谓的SaaS末日论被严重夸大了。
But I just think the SaaS apocalypse, totally overblown.
大家觉得怎么样？
What do guys think?
说说你们的看法。
Reaction.
是的。
Yeah.
说到Sarah's List这个概念，HubSpot股权的惊人之处在于它是流动的。
I mean, one one going back to this Sarah's List concept, the amazing thing about HubSpot equity is that it is liquid.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这确实是实实在在的。
And so and so you you it's it's very real.
在我们这个行业里，很多公司可能获得巨额补助，但你根本无法变现。
There's a lot of companies in our in our industry where you might get a massive grant, but you have no Yeah.
你完全被锁死了。
You're you're fully locked up.
我觉得，你能拿到三倍、四倍、五倍的回报吗？
And I think I think to the tune of, like, can you get the three, four, five x?
如果市场叙事反转，人们开始说：等等。
Well, if the narrative flips and people are like, wait.
实际上，HubSpot 拥有真正显著的竞争壁垒，我们之前以为会击垮他们的那个问题，并不会真的击垮他们。
Actually, like, HubSpot has some real significant moat, and that thing that we thought was gonna kill them isn't gonna kill them.
那么它就会立刻反弹回来。
Well, it just pops right back up.
所以，这就是我看到的期权价值。
And so that's sort of the option value I see.
我会
I would
实际上想说
actually like say
更多来自那些不采用种子模式的初创公司的压力。
more pressure from, like like, maybe startups that are that are not doing the seed based model.
他们采用的是更多以成果为导向的模式。
They're doing more outcome based model.
但许多这些公司才刚刚起步，要等到真正具有颠覆性的压力出现，还需要好几年。
But a lot of those companies are just getting started, and it's gonna be years until there's ever, like, some real disruptive pressure.
所以是的。
So Yeah.
我总体的框架是，即使是HubSpot，也必须以自成立以来从未有过的方式自然地进化。
My general framework is that it's gonna even like HubSpot will need to evolve in a way that it hasn't since inception just naturally.
因此需要卓越的领导力。
And so Need great leadership.
我不认为SaaS会消失。
I don't believe that SaaS is going away.
但要推动公司在这个新时代发展并建立强大动力，需要卓越的领导力。
But it's gonna require great leadership to help evolve and help the company like actually build a lot of momentum in this new era.
我同意你的看法。
So I'm with you.
我不认为本地的屋顶公司会只靠‘氛围代码’来维持自己的系统。
I don't think the local roofing company is gonna, you know, just be vibe code and kind of maintain their own Yeah.
软件栈。
Software stack.
但领导层必须真正意识到，过去那种‘我们可以永远保持这种年增长率’的想法已经不成立了，
But leadership is going to have to, like, actually it's going from, like, hey, we can just compound at this rate annually forever, and, like, this is just Yeah.
我们曾经看到的那种轻松简单的SaaS模式已经过去了。
Easy easy mode SaaS that we saw.
对。
Yeah.
如果他们要和一家拥有非常激进的智能功能的公司竞争，比如CRM系统能自动清理数据、添加信息，甚至做得更好的线索评分，那么他们就需要投入更多。
If they're in a bake off with a company that has some really crazy agentic features and basically the CRM's cleaning itself up and adding stuff and lead scoring even better, then they're gonna need to invest a lot more.
但总体而言，作为记录系统，他们的位置非常强大。
But in general, very, very strong position to be in, system of record.
Shaan，你怎么看？
What say you, Shaan?
甚至不一定非得是HubSpot。
You don't it doesn't even have to be HubSpot.
它可以是任何一家，可能是几十家中的任何一家。
It could be any it could be the dozens
我一直在关注这个。
I've of been looking at this.
我的意思是，我作为投资者一直在观察，心想，好吧。
I mean, I've I've been looking at it actually just as an investor to say like, okay.
这明显有些反应过度了。
Definitely seems like a overreaction.
是的
Yeah.
你知道吗，莫尼什·帕尔上过这个播客，他说过一句很棒的话，那就是风险和不确定性是两个不同的概念，而大多数投资者并不明白这一点。
You know you know, Monish Parr came on the podcast, he said a great thing, which is that risk and uncertainty are two different words, and most investors don't understand that.
嗯哼
Mhmm.
他解释了股票市场对不确定性的反应比对风险的反应更强烈。
And he was explaining how the stock market responds to uncertainty more than it does to risk.
所以，如果——而这正是目前正在发生的情况。
And so if it if and which is what's happening right now.
现在只是存在不确定性。
There's just uncertainty.
不确定性与说某些糟糕的事情一定会发生是完全不同的。
And uncertainty is very different than saying something bad is actually gonna happen.
只是我们不知道未来的现金流会是什么样子。
It's just that we don't know what the future cash flows look like.
我们不知道未来的增长率会是什么样子。
We don't know what the future growth rates look like.
所以你会因为不确定性而得到一个折现。
So you get this discount just for uncertainty.
所以我一直在看这些SaaS公司的资料，试图决定一下，比如Figma、Salesforce和HubSpot。
And so I've been looking at all these SaaS docs, I've been trying to decide like, okay, Figma, and you have Salesforce, and you have HubSpot.
这些公司都在打折。
You have all of these on sale.
我在想，我是不是该趁它们都在打折的时候多买一些？
And I'm like, do I wanna stock up while these are all on sale?
我觉得这些公司都挺不错的，但它们确实存在一定程度的不确定性。
I think these are pretty good companies here, but they have they do have some level of uncertainty.
所以我确实一直在关注这个情况。
So I've I've definitely been looking at this.
我之前开玩笑说，对你选的公司唉声叹气，但其实我觉得这个选择挺好的，尤其是约翰提到的方式——如果你，Sarah，把这家公司列出来，你整个过程都会保持流动性。
Like, I was joking, you know, groaning at your pick, but I actually think it's it's a pretty good pick, especially because the way John said it, like, you're gonna be liquid the whole time if you, Sarah, list this company.
是的
Yeah.
你将加入一家拥有二十年成功历史、成熟系统和诸多优势的公司。
You're gonna be working at, a well like, company with twenty years of success under its belt, you know, systems and all this good stuff.
而目前它的股价几乎处于历史最低点。
And then it's, like, at this all time low basically for for where it's at.
你必须警惕的一点是，AI领域不会出现实验室的正式公告。
The one thing you have to be aware of is like AI, there's not gonna be some announcement by the labs.
它不会说：嘿，各位。
It's like, hey, guys.
AI实际上正在倒退，情况正变得越来越糟。
AI is actually reversed in progress, and it's getting way worse.
我们认为未来情况会变得更糟。
We think it's gonna be much worse in in the future.
那时股价反而会飙升。
Then the stock's gonna rock it up.
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