这家伙赚了8000万美元利润。这是他的下三个股票选择

对吧？

Right?

这生意可太大了，各位。

Massive business, guys.

真的太大了。

Massive.

我受保密协议限制，不能说太多。

You wouldn't believe I I'm under NDA.

具体交易细节我不能透露，但退出时的估值非常可观。

I can't tell you the specifics of the sale, but massive exit.

一般来说，这类公司大概能卖多少钱？

Can can can you say, generally speaking, these businesses, what do they sell for?

不是说对。

Not yeah.

比如按EBITDA倍数算，通常是多少倍？

Like, like, on the EBITDA like, what what's the EBITDA multiple?

这些生意卖不出高价，因为是实体业务。

They don't sell for big multiples because it's a it's a physical business.

跟软件公司完全不一样。

It's not like a software business.

但我们从这些展会上赚的钱多得惊人。

But the amount of money we were generating from these shows was enormous.

利润真的很高吗？

It was really profitable?

利润非常高，因为我们非常重视展会，办得也很出色。

Very profitable because we cared deeply about the shows and we ran great shows.

我们实际上

We actually

简单算一笔账，七十万场，每场六十大洋吧。

mean, just doing back of the envelope math, 700,000 times, let's say $60.

光是门票收入就快到五千万了，还不算供应商那边。

You're getting close to $50,000,000 in revenue, let alone vendors.

我不能透露具体数字，但我可以告诉你，那笔钱多得惊人。

I can't disclose exact numbers, but I'm gonna tell you the numbers were huge.

我们是从零开始，花了四年时间一点点建起来的，但这真不容易。

And we started from nothing and we built this all up over four years, but it wasn't easy guys.

我们特别节省，连展会展台用的支架和幕布都是自己买的，因为办展会最贵的就是每次租这些设备。

Like we we were so frugal that we had our own rig because you know the most expensive part of throwing a convention is buying renting pipe and drape at all the conventions.

所以我们干脆买了全套的支架和幕布，装上一辆十八轮大卡车，公司创始人马修就亲自开车，一个城市接一个城市地跑。

So, we bought our own pipe and drape, put it in a 18 wheeler, and the founder operator of this business, Matthew, would drive the truck himself from city to city.

简直疯狂。

It was crazy.

是啊。

Okay.

然后我们再找些当地的人帮忙卸货。

And then we would unload the truck with some local help.

对吧？

Right?

我们还会布置展会之类的活儿。

And we would set up the shows or so.

说实话，有几次因为我腰不好，第一天结束就几乎走不动了。

I mean, there were points because I have a bad back where after the first day I was almost, I couldn't walk.

有几次到第二天我就得回家，因为给太多人检票，弯腰太多，把腰给伤着了。

There were some shows I'd have to go home on day two because I hurt my back so bad from just like leaning over ticketing thousands of people at the show.

我们虽然会雇临时工帮忙，但人手永远不够。

Because we would hire contract workers to help us, but we needed every hand possible.

这确实挺疯狂的。

That's pretty crazy.

所以我们一直把它当家族企业来经营。

And so we ran it like a family business.

我们对每一位参会者都特别用心。

We were deeply passionate about the attendees.

我们每到周六中午都会办一场音乐会。

We would throw a concert every Saturday midday.

我们那时候请过范·迪塞尔来表演，特别有意思。

We had like Vanilla Ice would perform or like, it was so fun.

直到今天，我从来没买过一张宝可梦卡片。

Meanwhile, to this day, I've never bought a Pokemon card.

所以我只是个旁观者，看着这一切发生。

So, like I was an observer of this scepter.

说到底，我对宅文化，尤其是宝可梦，有着深深的信念。

But the long story short, like I had deep conviction in nerd culture and Pokemon specifically.

我觉得华尔街和整个商业圈根本没意识到，有数百万人都热衷于收集这些卡片，却从来没人提供一个每年能让他们线下聚会、交流、交易的有趣场所。

I think Wall Street doesn't and just business, the business community generally doesn't appreciate the fact that there are millions of people that like collecting these cards and no one had provided a fun place for them to physically go to once a year to connect with other people like them and trade these cards.

我们早就有体育卡展了。

Like we have sports card shows.

这种活动早就有了，对吧？

We've had them forever, right?

比如棒球卡之类的。

With baseball cards and whatnot.

但从来没人办过一个大型的集换式卡牌游戏展会。

But no one had ever really established a big show for, you know, TCG, for like these table card games.

对吧？

Right?

真的从来没人做过这件事。

Like, no one had ever done it before.

所以我自然而然就觉得这事儿该做。

So it just intuitively made sense to me.

嘿。

Hey.

咱们先休息一下。

Let's take a quick break.

你有没有那种感觉？策略定了，简报写好了，大家都达成一致了，结果你突然意识到，还得有人坐下来把所有内容实际做出来？

You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, everyone's aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create all the content?

这个人通常就是你，而且明天就得交。

That someone is usually you, and it's due tomorrow.

不过，HubSpot 的 Breeze 助手能帮上忙。

Well, the Breeze assistant from HubSpot can help.

它直接集成在 HubSpot 里头。

It works right inside HubSpot.

你可以用你自己的品牌语气，结合真实的客户数据，起草营销文案、博客文章、邮件等等。

You can draft campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice, all using your actual customer data.

你做的不只是内容。

So you don't create just content.

你做的是能带来转化的内容。

You create content that converts.

去 hubspot.com 看看吧，这是专为成长型业务打造的智能客户平台。

Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses.

所以我很好奇，是不是也有其他人这么做？或者你有特别佩服的人吗？

So so I'm curious if this is something that others have been doing or there's people you look up to.

比如说，沃伦·巴菲特，你可能根本不会觉得他是那种善于观察市场的交易者，但事实就是如此。

So for example, somebody who you wouldn't think is an observational trader, wouldn't call that, is Warren Buffett.

但他确实有过一些绝佳的例子，说明他正好做了你刚才说的这种事。

But there's some great stories of where he did exactly what you're talking about.

比如美国运通的沙拉油危机。

There's a story of the salad oil crisis with American Express.

不知道你们有没有听说过这个故事，当时他们借钱给一个自称拥有沙拉油存货的人。

I don't know if you guys know that story, but it's basically, you know, at a given time, they were lending money, and they were lending money to this guy who was supposed to have salad oil dressing.

后来他们去检查油桶，发现里面装的全是淡水加盐，其实就是海水。

And then they went and they checked the barrels, and the barrels were just full of water, saltwater, no, like seawater.

根本就没有一滴沙拉油，股价瞬间崩盘。

And there was no salad oil at all, and the stock is plummeting.

但巴菲特看透了核心问题：这只是一个短期打击，还是会永久损害品牌信誉？

And Buffett, he figured out what the central question was, which is, is this a temporary setback, or is this actually gonna be damaging to the trust of the brand long term?

他始终相信品牌的力量。

And he believed in brands.

对吧？

Right?

所以他才会投资可口可乐、GEICO这些他觉得品牌力量强大的公司。

That's why he has been on Coca Cola and GEICO and these other companies that he feels like have brands that have power.

这跟克里斯的做法完全相反。

It's the exact opposite of what Chris is.

关键问题是，什么东西不会变？

It's like what won't change?

对。

Yeah.

他确实这么做过，不过这部分市场调研的思路其实是共通的。

So he well, he was but still the the the market research part of this is kind of shared.

对吧？

Right?

他曾经走进一家商店，观察店员，也留意顾客刷信用卡的样子，就想弄清楚：人们会不会因为不再信任美国运通的信誉而放弃使用它？还是说，美国运通这个品牌能挺过这次危机？

So he the the story is he goes into a store, and he just watches the clerk and he watches customers with their credit card, and he's basically trying to figure out, are people gonna stop taking American Express because they no longer have faith in the good standing of American Express, or is the American Express brand gonna endure this?

实际上，市场普遍认为这次事件会损害美国运通的未来和品牌声誉。

And really, the asymmetry was the market believed that that this would damage the future of American Express and the the quality of the brand.

他观察到，顾客和商店在使用美国运通时完全没有问题，根本不存在什么危机。

And what he observed in watching people was that the stores and the customers had no problem using American Express and that there was no there's issue.

没错，他也用同样的方法去观察。

No And he did the same thing.

他对苹果公司也做了类似的事，之前他一直避开科技公司。

He does a very similar thing with Apple, where he had stayed away from technology companies for a long time.

后来他发现，当跟苹果用户聊天时，他们根本不愿意用其他品牌的便宜手机来换掉手里的苹果设备。

And then he realized like, oh, when he talked to Apple customers, he's like, not only would they not trade their current device for a cheaper equivalent of device by somebody else.

你出多少钱他们都懒得换苹果。

You can't pay these people to switch off Apple.

这更多是一种社会心理学上的观察，而不是从技术或基本面角度分析企业，正是这种观察让他决定投资这些公司。

And it was it was a more of a social psychological observation, not a technical or fundamental analysis of the business that led him to to to invest in those companies.

所以，克里斯，我绕了这么大一圈，其实是想问，还有谁在这方面特别厉害？

So, Chris, it's a long winded way of asking, who else has been great at this?

有哪些让你深受启发的故事？还是说，你觉得你是第一个把这种方法推广开的人？

What are the great stories that inspire you on this, or do you feel like you're kind of the first one to popularize this?

不是。

No.

信息不对称这个概念在投资方法中并不新鲜。

The concept of information asymmetry is not new to investing methodologies.

最著名地广泛应用这一方法的人，应该是彼得·林奇，他在八十年代管理富达麦哲伦基金时就这么做的。

The most famous person to adopt it widely would have been Peter Lynch with the Magellan Fund in the eighties.

不同之处在于，纯粹的观察型社会套利投资者认为，这不该只是投资方法中的一部分，而应该是你唯一要考虑的东西。

The difference is being a pure observational Social Arbitrage investor is this concept that it shouldn't be part of an investing methodology, but it should be the only thing that you take into consideration.

对吧？

Right?

彼得·林奇其实是把这种观察式投资方式融合进去了。

So, Peter Lynch kind of blended this observational investing approach.

他经常亲自逛商场，留意哪家店的收银台前排的队最长。

He would famously walk the malls and kind of look at what stores had the longest lines at the cash register.

听起来挺简单的。

Seems pretty simple.

对吧？

Right?

他还会把这种观察和大量的基本面研究结合起来。

And he would combine that with massive amounts of fundamental research.

但你得想想，如果市场相对有效——我们知道市场从来不是完全有效的，但如果它在很大程度上已经反映了所有基本面和技术面信息，而众多投资者都在基于这些已知因素给公司定价的话。

You have to ask yourself though, if the market is relatively efficient, and we know the market's never perfectly efficient, but if it's relatively efficient in terms of taking into account all the fundamentals and all the technicals, and you have all these investors that are trying to price a company based on all the known things.

那么，只要你能发现某个未知但重要的信息，就不必再纠结其他那些东西了。

Then if you're able to surface something that's unknown, that is meaningful, you don't need to worry about all the other stuff.

你不需要一套复杂的基本面或技术面分析体系，再顺便用上信息不对称这个概念。

You don't need to have this robust fundamental technical approach that also happens to apply information asymmetry when you come across it.

你完全可以把所有精力和研究都集中在寻找市场尚未察觉的新信息上，假设你所交易的这家公司对已知信息的定价已经相对合理，只是还没来得及反映这个新发现。

You can focus all of your energy and all of your research on just finding new information that the market hasn't discovered yet, and making an assumption that the particular company that you're trading is relatively efficient with all the known information, and investors haven't fully priced in this new piece of information.

所以，你只需要关注这一条信息差就够了。

So, all you care about is that one piece of information asymmetry.

这简化了投资者参与这个游戏的方式，因为大多数人根本不可能成为技术娴熟的投资者，也不可能跟那些顶尖的、常春藤毕业的、做深度基本面分析的专家竞争。

It simplifies the way that investors can approach this game because most of us are never going to be technically proficient investors and never going to be able to compete with the absolute best, most pedigreed Wharton graduated, like fundamental investors, right, that are doing deep, deep fundamental analysis.

他们已经接受了一个事实：这家公司应该以29倍的市盈率交易，而不是现在24倍的市盈率。

They've come to terms with the fact that this company should trade at a 29 PE as opposed to the 24 PE it's trading at today.

我的意思是，我不想玩这种游戏。

I mean, I don't want to play that game.

这是最容易玩的游戏，因为你有上百万种投资方式可以选择。

The easiest game to play because you can invest a million different ways.

那问题来了，什么样的投资方式才是最好的？

So the question is, what is the best approach to investing?

能让大多数普通人真正高效地运用，并且持续获得回报的方式。

That the largest chunk of ordinary people can actually apply efficiently to markets and regularly do that in a fruitful way.

我坚信，那就是纯粹的观察型社交套利投资。

And I strongly believe it's pure observational social arb investing.

肖恩，我刚搜了一下，挺有意思的。

Shawn, I actually just Googled this and it's funny.

我居然被当成这个故事的来源了。

I'm quoted as the source of Google for this story.

所以，这可能有点儿不寻常。

So, it could be a little bit rock.

但1966年，年轻的沃伦·巴菲特曾在一个下午，提着公文包去纽约第四十五街与百老汇交汇处的电影院看《欢乐满人间》。

But in 1966, a young Warren Buffett visited a movie theater on 45th And Broadway in New York to watch Mary Poppins.

他后来开玩笑说，那感觉简直像得租个孩子才能融入人群。

He went with a briefcase in the middle of the afternoon, later joking that it almost felt like he needed to rent a kid to fit in.

这次出行是他为了研究迪士尼，看看这个品牌是否真有持久的吸引力。

This trip was his way of researching Disney to see if they had lasting brand appeal.

当天晚些时候，他以四百万美元的价格买入了迪士尼5%的股份，一年后就涨了五成。

And later that day, he bought 5% of the company at $4,000,000, and it was a 50% gain over the next year.

他说，自己一年后把股票卖了，这是他这辈子犯过的最大错误之一。

And he says selling it, which he did after one year, was one of his biggest mistakes that he's ever made.

顺便说一句，如果他真的相信迪士尼拥有持久的品牌价值，对吧？

And by the way, so if he really believed that that lasting durable brand appeal was there for Disney, right?

那他是不是也觉得，全世界其他人要过一年才意识到这一点？

Did he also believe that the rest of the world came to that acknowledgment after a year?

如果他真这么认为，那一年后他就没什么超额收益了，卖掉迪士尼可能也是对的。

And if he did, then he didn't have any alpha after a year, and he was probably right to sell Disney.

而且迪士尼那时候他才35岁。

And Disney He's only 35

顺便说一句，他做那笔交易的时候。

when he did that, by the way.

所以我的意思是，也许他只是犯了个错。

So may I mean, you could also say maybe just made a mistake.

但你得明白一件事。

But you have to understand something.

你卖出股票后股价是涨是跌，可能跟你有没有犯错毫无关系，因为那并不是你的投资逻辑。

Whether a stock goes up or down after you sell might have nothing to do with you making a mistake because that's not your thesis.

那也不是你当初买入的理由。

That's not why you invested.

你并没有获得超额收益。

You don't have any alpha.

所以，股价上涨可能完全是别的原因造成的。

So, it could have gone up for a completely different reason.

你得别再一看到股票在你卖出后还涨，就觉得自己犯了错。

So, you gotta get out of the headspace of saying because a stock continue to go up after you exited, you made the mistake.

这完全可能是巧合。

That could be completely coincidental.

它上涨是因为你根本不知道、也根本没考虑过的事情。

It went up for something that you had no knowledge into, that you had no take on.

可你怎么衡量这一点呢？

How do you quantify that though?

比如，Shaan 和我，或者普通人，可能对某家公司有自己的看法。

Because, like, for example, Shaan and I or the average Joe might have, like, an opinion on one company.

我们认为他们的销售额会上升。

Their sales we think are going up.

但这并不意味着股价就一定会变。

But that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will change.

好的。

Okay.

咱们先退一步看。

Let's take a step back.

如果你判断得对，这家公司确实受到了某个重大因素的影响，收入会增长，而其他投资者还没意识到这一点。

If you are correct that a company is being impacted by something meaningfully and their revenue is going to go up and the rest of the investor class is not aware of that yet.

如果在这笔交易的窗口期内，没有其他因素干扰这家公司，那股价上涨的可能性就非常大。

If there's nothing else impacting that company during that trade window, it is highly likely.

再说，影响因素有很多。

Again, there are a lot of factors.

还有宏观市场，大盘可能会跌，对吧？

There's the macro market, the market could come down, right?

但抛开其他因素，单看这条信息，几乎总是会让股价上涨。

But in a vacuum, piece of information almost always, in a vacuum, will almost always result in the stock going up.

因为当公司赚的钱比市场预期多时，股价就会涨。

Because when a company makes more money than the market anticipates, the stock will go up.

如果你能发现一些会影响公司销售额、而市场其他人还不知道的信息，那么当全世界都接受这个信息时，股价就会上涨。

If you're able to surface something that will impact a company sales that the rest of the market is not aware of, when the rest of the world comes to terms with that piece of information, that will positively impact the stock price.

前提是这家公司或整个市场没有其他事情发生。

Assuming that there's nothing else going on with that company or the market at large.

不过，别想得太复杂。

But I I wouldn't overthink it.

太多投资者在这里想太多了。

Too many investors overthink this.

其实没那么复杂，各位。

It's not that complicated, guys.

能大概说说交易量吗？

Can you give a sense of volume?

我记得你好像提过，八十八年里有十七年做了投资决策。

So I think you said something like eighty eighty investment decisions, seventeen years.

这是指每年都要做买卖操作吗？还是我理解错了？

That does that mean you're making buy sell trade decisions per year, or did I hear that wrong?

因为我的直觉是，你的操作频率应该比这更高。

Because that my my my hunch was that you're a little more active than that.

我想了解一下，在一年里，你大概会做多少笔投资决策？

Seems like in a given year, how many decisions are you how many investment decisions are you making?

我指的是那些高确信度的交易。

So, I'm referring to high conviction trades.

就是那种我非常有把握的交易，我通常会拿出总仓位的5%到30%来买入这只股票，或者拿出2%到15%的仓位来买入该股票对应的期权。

Know, trades where I have a lot of conviction and I'm generally allocating five to 30% of my total portfolio to buying that stock, or I'm allocating, call it two to 15% of my portfolio to buying options in that stock.

顺便问一下，你说的投资组合是指什么？是像我的交易资金、娱乐开销、零花钱，还是指我放在一边那种保守稳健的积蓄，或者是整个投资组合？

By the way, when you say portfolio, is this like, have my trading, my fun, my fun slush fund, and then I have my boring safe nest egg over here or entire portfolio?

整个投资组合。

Portfolio.

对。

Yes.

我想Shaun的意思是，你有没有一个安全垫？

I think what Shaan was getting at was like, do you have like a safety net?

不是。

No.

我的公开股票投资组合就是我的公开股票投资组合。

I mean, my public equity portfolio is my public equity portfolio.

就一个组合。

Just one portfolio.

当我对某笔交易很有把握时，我会把组合中最多三分之一的仓位投到那只股票上，持续整个交易周期。

When I have high conviction in a trade, I will allocate between, like I said, I don't know, up to a third of my portfolio might be in that single stock for that period of time that I'm in that trade.

Shaan，回答你的问题，早年我每年平均做一到两笔高信心的交易。

Shaan, to answer your question, in the early years, I would average one to two high conviction trades a year.

现在，相比十三年前，社交媒体多了很多，世界也更数字化、更互联了，要实时了解全球的讨论变得比以往任何时候都容易。

Now, as we have more social media today than we had back thirteen years ago, and the world is more digitally connected today and there's It's actually easier than it's ever been to read into the world's conversations as they're happening.

你们也知道，我每天晚上花好几个小时刷TikTok视频下的评论，因为那里最真实地反映了人们每天在做什么、买什么、去哪儿。

Like, as you guys know, I spend hours a night reading comments on TikTok videos because that's where most of the world organically shares what they're doing, what they're buying, you know, where they're going like on a daily basis.

我高信心交易的频率提高了。

I've the velocity of my high conviction trades.

所以现在有些年份，我一年会做出六七笔高信心的交易，而不是以前的一两笔。

So, there have been years now where I've had six or seven high conviction trades in a year, or where it used to be one or two.

没错。

Right.

顺便说一句，世界变化越大，就越容易发现高信心的交易机会。

And by the way, the more change that's happening in the world, the more opportunity to surface a high conviction trade.

我最有收获的一年大概是疫情期间，那时候全球发生了翻天覆地的变化。

So, probably the biggest year I ever had was during the pandemic because the year of the pandemic, there was a tremendous amount of change happening in the world.

大家都宅在家里，远程办公，对吧？

We all started living at home, working from home, Right?

我们不再出门了。

We stopped going out.

开始买一些以前根本不会碰的东西。

We started buying things that we wouldn't ordinarily never buy.

不再花那些钱，转而把钱花在新的东西上，因为我们一整年都待在家里。

We stopped spending money on those things and started spending money on these things because we're living inside of our house for a year straight.

我们买自行车、相机、打印机，都是因为孩子在家上网课，各种东西都得备齐。

You know, we're buying bicycles and cameras for our computers and printers because the kids are doing homeschooling and all of these things.

所以我们买Peloton，不去健身房了，在家锻炼就行。

So, we're buying Peloton because we're not going to the gym and we're working out at our house now.

我们购物更多上亚马逊，听音乐也更多用Spotify。

So, you know, we're shopping more on Amazon and Spotify.

变化越多，对善于观察的投资者来说，机会就越多，能看清趋势，找到投资点。

So, like the more change, the more opportunity for an observational investor to surface that change and connect the dots to investable opportunities.

世界要是没什么大变化，咱们的机会也就少了。

When there's not a lot of change in the world, then there's less opportunity for us.

我跟人说，现在AI时代，这种全球性的巨变，除了疫情之外，以前从没遇到过。

So, what I've been telling people is in the age of AI, we've never experienced this type of global change before other than the pandemic.

AI正在彻底改变我们对工作、对智能的理解方式。

Because AI is radically changing the way that we think about work, that we think about intelligence.

未来几年，全球每一家公司都会受到AI和无限智能的影响，要么受益，要么遭殃。

Every company in the world is going to get hit positively or negatively due to the way that AI and unlimited intelligence is going to impact sector over the next few years.

所以，现在对一个善于观察社会趋势的投资人来说，真是个绝佳的时机，因为世界变化得太快了。

So, this is an amazing time to be an observational social arb investor because the world is changing so quickly.

会有大量的赢家和输家出现。

There's going to be so many winners and losers.

关键是要搞清楚哪些地方在变，以及这些变化对每个公司在特定时期是好是坏。

So, the game here is to figure out what's changing and the degree to which that change is good or bad for any given company at any given period of time.

这种变化会影响你吗，沙恩？

Does this influence you, Shaan?

这可是你第二次跟他聊天了。

This is your second time talking to him.

自从十二月以来，你的行为有改变吗？

Are you Has your actions changed since December?

倒也不一定，因为我主要做的并不是直接参与公开市场的股票投资。

Not necessarily because the main thing I do isn't, like, active investing in in public equities.

如果我真这么做，可能影响会大一点，但我也不太确定。

You know, if I did, maybe it would be a little more, but I don't know.

我觉得这特别有意思。

I find it fascinating.

就像你说的，我们访谈过一些极端的例子，比如查理·芒格和巴菲特的追随者。

And like you said, we talked to on one end of the spectrum, you know, sort of the Charlie Munger, Buffett disciples.

我们请过那些价值投资者。

We've had those value investors on.

我们还请过霍华德·马克斯。

We've had, you know, Howard Marks.

他专攻债务和债券，还有维达莉亚，以及这么多不同背景的人。

He's dealing in debt and bonds, and you have Vidalia, you have all these different people.

所以我现在更多是抱着好奇的心态，不是说每次遇到一个特别成功、特别有意思的投资者，我就要立刻改变自己的风格——对我们这个播客来说，这种人几乎每个月都遇到。

So I'm more of a, right now, in a kind of curiosity mode, not a, oh, great, let me switch up my style every time I talk to a really successful, really interesting investor, which for us on this podcast is like every month.

但我得问你一个问题。

You but let me ask you a question.

你的听众，你觉得他们一般是什么样的人？

Your audience, what what do you think the average follower of this show looks like?

你觉得这个节目的普通听众有能力成为顶尖的1%基本面投资者，跟那些真正厉害的人竞争吗？

Do you think the average follower of this show is capable of being a top 1% fundamental investor competing against literally Well,

我觉得普通听众完全有可能在任何投资领域做到前1%。

don't think that the average average listener of the show couldn't be a top 1% in any type of investing.

这话倒也不全是假的。

That's not completely untrue.

这说法太离谱了。

That's ridiculous.

我

I

觉得那种认为普通人根本搞不懂的说法太荒谬了。

think for fraud are ridiculous to say the average person can't be able That to

这完全是胡说八道。

that is that is patently false.

纯属无稽之谈。

Patently false.

你猜我在高中毕业班里排名多少？

Where do you think where do you think I graduated in my high school class?

随便猜一个。

Just just guess.

按百分比来说。

Percent wise.

要么是前1%，要么是倒数第一。

Either one percent or the worst percent.

我不太确定该猜哪个位置。

I'm not sure where I should guess.

不是的。

But no.

不对。

No.

根本不是。

No.

我是认真的，我真的用两万美元的投资组合赚了八千万。

Genuinely, like, genuinely, I generated 80,000,000 off a $20,000 portfolio.

我就是我这个人。

Like, I am who I am.

你看看过去十五年的那些报道和事实，客观地说，你觉得我在公立高中毕业时的排名会是多少？

You know, look at the last fifteen years of stuff and articles like genuinely, like objectively, where do you think I would have graduated in my high school class at public school?

等等，先别急。

Just back up.

问题是，我们节目的普通观众，他们是那1%的投资者吗？

The question was, the average person of our show, are they a 1% investor?

我觉得他们不是，我也不是。

I don't think they are nor do I

不，他们不是，绝对不是。

No, think they no, no, no.

不好意思。

I'm sorry.

我不是那个意思。

I didn't mean that.

我是想问，他们有没有这个能力。

I meant, do they have the capacity

也不是。

Also, no.

好吧。

Okay.

那我来问你一个问题。

Well, I'm gonna ask you.

咱们聊聊智商吧，你觉得我的智商怎么样？

So like, let's talk about if we talk about IQ, like, do you think my IQ?

我做过智商测试。

I had an IQ test.

你猜我 IQ 多少？或者你觉得我在高中时成绩排第几？

What do you think my IQ was or what do you where do you think I graduated in my high school class?

你就客观地说出来吧，别藏着掖着。

Just just objectively, just throw it out there.

中等吧。

Middle.

陕西？

Shaan?

你既然问这个问题，那说明你成绩肯定在班级后半段。

Well, you're asking the question which tells me it's gotta be in the bottom half of your class.

还不止呢。

It's than that.

我在高中班上排在最后25%。

It's bottom 25 of my high school class.

我差点没毕业。

I barely graduated.

我跟你说吧，我记不清自己具体的智商分数了，但我可以告诉你，上幼儿园的时候，我是班上唯一一个不知道自己姓什么的孩子，结果他们就把我送到曼哈顿去做智商测试。

I'll just tell you this, I don't recall my exact IQ, but I will tell you this, when I was in kindergarten, I was the only kid in the class that didn't know what my last name was and they sent me to Manhattan to get an IQ test.

我到现在还留着那张纸。

I still have that piece of paper.

我的智商只是略低于平均水平。

It was slightly below average in terms of IQ.

也没多离谱。

Nothing crazy.

他们还是让我留在这班里。

They kept me in the class.

我真不知道为啥我连自己姓啥都不知道。

I don't know why I didn't know my last name.

说实话，我只是想说，全班就我一个连自己姓啥都不清楚。

Honestly, I'm just saying I didn't I was the only kid that didn't know my last name.

后来一直到高中毕业，我的表现也没好到哪儿去。

I went on to do not a lot better through my senior fear of high school.

很明显，我一直在班里排倒数25%。

Obviously, I was bottom 25% of my class.

那性格方面呢？

What about temperament?

因为就像你一样，我们之前跟那些很厉害的人聊过。

Because like you, again, we've talked to all these amazing people.

我跟不少投资人聊下来，最大的感触就是性格可能比智商更重要。

A huge takeaway that I've had talking to a bunch of the investors in particular is that temperament probably matters more than IQ.

我觉得性格，也就是你天生自带的特质，基本上是天生的，很难改变。

And I think the your temperament, the way you were born is likely just the way it is.

你可能改不了这个。

You probably can't change it.

我觉得肖恩跟曼尼什·帕尔聊过，他说了点什么，我想是肖恩说的。

I think Sean talked to Manish Parr, and he said something, I think it was him, Sean.

他大概的意思是，我可能没法把任何人变成顶尖高手，但也许能帮你提升一点点。

He said something like, I probably can't take anyone and make them great, but we could probably improve you a little bit.

你知道，我想他没这么直说，但意思就像是你天生就七英尺高一样。

You know, I think he didn't say this, but it was like the analogy of you're born seven feet tall.

你六英尺高也能打篮球打得很好，但有些天赋就是天生的。

And you could be better at basketball at six foot tall, but like, you know, freaks are freaks.

所以说到这个领域，我觉得性格可能比智商更重要。

And so temperament, actually think is probably more important than IQ when it comes to this game.

明白了。

Okay.

我认为，只要愿意彻底坚持观察型投资的理念，成为顶尖百分之一的投资者并不难。

I would say that being a top one percent observational investor, just a top 1% investor generally, is easily doable if you're willing to aggressively adopt being an observational purist investor.

我这么说是因为我实际做的东西其实非常简单直接。

And the reason I say that is because what I actually do is so simple and so straightforward.

过去七八年，我一直在YouTube上分享这些观点，有几十万粉丝，几乎每天都有来自世界各地的人给我发消息。

And I've seen over the past seven or eight years since I've been public about this on YouTube and I have hundreds of thousands of followers, I have people around the world writing me near daily.

他们有的是牙医，有的是清洁工，有的开卡车给UPS送货，有的在停车场负责验车。

They are dentists, they are janitors, they drive trucks for UPS, they work in a parking lot checking out cars.

他们会私信我说：‘克里斯，我看了你五年了。’

And they will DM me, hey Chris, I've been watching you for five years.

我就是从这儿开始的。

I started doing this.

我是根据对世界的观察，早早地投了这家公司。

I was early to this company or to this company based on what I observed in the world.

就这一笔投资，彻底改变了我的生活。

It's that one investment has changed my entire life.

我跟别人说，如果你能在二十年间抓住一两次这样的机会，也就是早早发现潜力股，然后投入一笔可观的资金，那你就能跻身所有投资者中前百分之一到百分之二的行列。

I tell people, if you have one or two home runs over twenty years, one or two home runs over twenty years, meaning you find something early and you put a meaningful amount of money in it, that could put you into the one or 2% range of all investors over over that two decade period.

其实做到这一点就够了。

And that's all it takes.

特斯拉就是个完美的例子。

And a perfect example of that is Tesla.

明白吗？

Okay?

说实话，我当初并没有早早买入特斯拉。

I actually wasn't early into Tesla.

但你知道有多少人其实根本就是糟糕的投资者吗？

But do you know how many terrible investors otherwise?

这些人一辈子都没怎么碰过投资，估计到现在也没怎么变。

I mean, these are people that hadn't done anything in their entire life in the investing world and probably haven't done much since.

他们能成为前1%的投资者，只是因为早年开过特斯拉，意识到这玩意儿彻底改变了游戏规则。

Are 1% investors because they were behind the wheel of a Tesla in early days and they realized this is a game changer.

他们只是投了一笔不算多、但还算合理的钱进去买特斯拉股票。

They put some meaningful, not even that meaningful, just some reasonable amount of money into Tesla stock.

就这一笔投资，让他们在十到十五年，甚至二十年里成了全球顶尖的1%投资者，彻底扭转了整个人生的方向。

That one investment made them a top 1% global investor for like a ten or fifteen year period or twenty year period and changed the trajectory of their entire life.

他们并不特别聪明。

They're not hyper intelligent.

他们就跟普通人没什么两样。

They're probably like any regular person.

他们很可能就跟看这个节目，或者任何其他节目的大多数人一样。

They're probably like most of the people that watch this show or any other show.

关键就在于明白，其实根本没那么复杂，因为大多数人连试都不愿意试。我没法跟华尔街那些背景雄厚的投资者比。

And it's all about just understanding that that's all it takes because most people never even try this I I can't compete with pedigreed investors from Wall Street.

我也没法每天花六个小时做技术交易。

I can't spend six hours a day doing technical trading.

他们没意识到，根本不需要那样。

They don't realize you don't need to.

你完全可以照常生活，该干嘛干嘛，只要保持开放的心态，留意有没有可能提前发现下一个大机会。

You can just go on with your life, live your life, just keep your mind open to potentially early discovering the next big thing.

就这么简单。

That's it.

真的就只是这样。

That's literally it.

你只需要做到这一点。

That's all you have to do.

本期播客由我的朋友Mercury赞助。

Today's podcast is brought to you by my friends at Mercury.

他们推出了全球最好的银行产品。

They make the world's best banking product.

我想你早就知道了。

I think you know this already.

我所有的生意都在用 Mercury。

I use Mercury for all of my businesses.

我大概有七八个生意吧。

I think I have, like, maybe seven or eight businesses.

我们所有生意的对公账户都用 Mercury。

We use Mercury as our business banking across all of them.

现在他们刚推出了个人银行账户。

And now they actually just launched a personal banking account.

我的个人账户也转到那儿了。

So I have my personal account there.

我已经把账户从富国银行和摩根大通转过来了。

I moved off of Wells Fargo and Chase.

我完全用 Mercury 了。

I'm just all in on Mercury.

为什么呢？

Why?

我喜欢用起来简单的产品。

I like products that are easy to use.

我喜欢那些能懂我、懂我痛点的产品。

I like products that get me and the problems that I have.

比如，和我老婆一起开个联名账户，特别方便。

So, like, very easy to make a joint account with my wife.

生成虚拟卡片也是一点就成。

Very easy to spin up virtual cards.

点一下就能开通储蓄收益。

One click, and I get savings yield.

所有我需要的功能，全都在一个地方。

It just has all the stuff that I need in one place.

所以如果你正在寻找市面上最好的银行产品，那绝对是 Mercury。

So if you're looking for the best banking product on the market, it's definitely Mercury.

我敢跟任何不同意我观点的人打一架。

I will fist fight anybody who disagrees with me on that.

去 mercury.com/personal 了解更多详情。

Go to mercury.com/personal and learn more.

Mercury 是一家金融科技公司，而不是受 FDIC 保险的银行。

Mercury is a fintech, not an FDIC insured bank.

银行服务由Choice Financial Group和Column, N.A.提供。

Banking services are provided through Choice Financial Group and Column, N.

A，成员受FDIC保险。

A, members FDIC.

你现在最有信心的投资是什么？

What are the things you have most high conviction in right now?

我最有信心的交易，我就像个坏掉的唱片一样反复说这个。

My highest conviction trade, I'm like a broken record on this.

听起来太奇怪了，这可不是小公司，这是亚马逊啊，各位。

It sounds so weird because it's not a small company, it's Amazon, guys.

我手里的钱，大部分都投在亚马逊里了。

Like, I have more money in Amazon.

这是我很久以来最集中的一笔投资了。

This is the most concentrated position I've had in a really long time.

我总说，我这辈子押得最重的一次，是任天堂推出Wii的时候，那会儿我正好在E3展会现场，亲眼看到了——就像巴菲特说的那种故事，对吧？

I always say the most concentrated position I've ever taken was Nintendo when they came out with the Wii because I was at the E3 conference and actually saw, because like a Buffet story, right?

我亲眼看见人群排着队，第一次体验任天堂Wii。

I actually saw the line of people interacting with the Nintendo Wii for the first time.

你记得那个改变游戏规则的平台吗？当时华尔街根本没人看好。

I don't know if you remember that game changing platform and nobody on Wall Street believed it.

所有人都盯着Xbox和PlayStation的发布，眼睛都不带眨的。

Everyone on Wall Street was so hyper focused on the Xbox coming out and the PlayStation coming out.

没人觉得Wii能成气候。

Nobody thought the Wii was going be a big deal.

我当时就在现场。

I was there.

我亲眼看到了。

I saw it in real life.

我的整个投资组合都投在了任天堂的ADR上，这是一种追踪任天堂日本股票的存托凭证。

I had a 100% of my portfolio invested in a Nintendo ADR, which is a tracking stock that tracks the Japanese ticker of Nintendo.

我整整一年把全部资金都押在了任天堂上，直到华尔街终于意识到这有多重要。

And I had a 100% of my portfolio, think for a full year in Nintendo until Wall Street finally realized how big of a deal that was.

但我觉得亚马逊是全球最有可能从即将到来的AI效率浪潮中获益的公司——一旦我们真正看到AI带来的生产力显著提升，没有哪家公司能比亚马逊受益更多。

But Amazon, I just think it's the company that is best positioned in the world to benefit from the upcoming AI efficiency wave, which is once we actually start to see meaningful productivity jumps from the AI age, there's no company in the world that's gonna benefit more from that than Amazon.

我还觉得，亚马逊是AI基础设施的核心。

I also think they are the nucleus of AI infrastructure.

抱歉，你刚才说的是什么观察？

So sorry, what's the observation you made here?

这跟TikTok上的评论有关系吗？

Is this not from the TikTok comments in this situation?

这指的是什么？

This from?

不是。

No.

这是一种全球性的文化转变，我三年前就注意到了这一点，部分原因是我不确定你们有没有读过纳西姆·塔勒布的《黑天鹅》。

Is a kind of a global cultural shift and it's a big observation I've had for three years, which is based in part I don't know if you guys ever read Nassim Taleb's book Black Swan.

对。

Mhmm.

黑天鹅理论的核心是，我们的大脑很难真正意识到和理解那些前所未有的市场或世界异常现象。

But Black Swan theory essentially says that our minds are not capable of fully recognizing and appreciating anomalies in the market or the world that haven't happened before.

我早期就提出过一个观点，认为人工智能不会只是下一个互联网。

I had this thesis in early days AI that AI wouldn't just be the next Internet.

它不只是下一个手机或智能手机，而是会远远超越我们这一代人所经历过的任何技术变革。

It's not just going to be the next mobile phone or smartphone, but that it would be meaningfully larger than anything we've experienced in our lifetime.

因此，我们这一生中最大的投资机会，将直接源于人工智能。

As a result of that, we would see the biggest trades of our life happen as a direct result of AI.

即使信息就摆在眼前，市场也不肯相信，直到数据真真切切地显现出来，因为我们从未见过像AI这样的东西。

And even when the information was right in front of us, the market would not believe it until it actually shows up in the numbers because there's no precedent for what we're seeing in AI.

在AI之前，我们这一辈子根本没发生过任何能跟它相提并论的事。

There's nothing that has ever happened in our lifetime before AI that we can compare to AI.

也许十年后我会后悔这么说，但我并不这么觉得。

Now, I might regret saying this in ten years, but I don't think so.

我认为，当智慧变得无限且对全人类免费时，这将是人类历史上最重大的变革。

I think the concept of intelligence becoming infinite and free to the world is going to be the biggest change we've ever seen in humanity.

所以亚马逊股价最近一直没怎么涨，原因就在于他们对AI投入得太激进了。

So, the reason why Amazon went down and has not really gone up as a company meaningfully, you know, recently, right, is because they have made such an aggressive investment in AI.

去年他们在AI上的资本支出已经超过了两千亿美元，而且还在涨，可没人知道这笔投资到底能不能回本。

$200,000,000,000, now it's like 200 and it's more than 200,000,000,000 this last year, CapEx investment in AI in a sector that nobody knows if it's going to pay off for them or not.

那是不是说，你们的Siri，还有那个叫什么来着？

Does that mean like like for example, Did your guys' Siri or what's it called?

Alexa。

Alexa.

你的Alexa最近改了？

Did your Alexa just change?

现在她跟你说话的方式都不一样了，我的Alexa真的变了。

Where like now she like talks to you like, my Alexa just changed.

现在她说话像ChatGPT一样，我都能问她真正的问题了。

Now it talks like chat GBT, like I can ask real questions.

我举个最简单的例子来说吧。

I would say the biggest example is this, it's this simple.

亚马逊是把整个公司都押在了AI上。

Amazon is betting the entire company on AI.

就这么简单。

End of story.

其他几家大科技公司也是这样。

As is some of the other big tech companies.

它们正把所有利润、资产负债表都押上去，建设前所未有的大规模基础设施。

They are leveraging all of their profits, they're leveraging their balance sheet, they are building out massive infrastructure unlike they ever had in the history of the company.

他们正在AI领域投入全球最大的资本支出，远远超过其他任何公司，但世界还不确定这最终会怎样发展。

They are making the biggest CapEx investment of any company in the world by a big margin in AI, and the world is still unsure about how this is going to play out.

我一点都不怀疑。

I'm not unsure.

我愿意把所有赌注都押上去。

I'm willing to bet it all.

他们认为AI的基础架构层——也就是亚马逊，明白吗？

They think that the infrastructure layer of AI, which is Amazon, okay?

因为亚马逊真正懂这个。

Because Amazon understand this.

他们本质上是一家芯片公司，对吧？

They are a chip company, right?

他们生产的是Tranium芯片。

They're Tranium.

单是他们的Tranium AI芯片，明年就能带来大约五百亿美元的收入。

Their chips alone, their Tranium AI chips are generating like $50,000,000,000 of revenue this next year.

他们是全球最大的数据中心基础设施公司之一，过去十五年多来，他们在云计算领域打造的AWS平台，正是AI架构的核心。

They are one of the largest infrastructure datacenter companies in the entire world, and their AWS platform and everything that they've constructed in Cloud computing over the past fifteen plus years sits at the center of this architecture infrastructure for AI.

此外，亚马逊还是全球第三大数字广告公司。

On top of that, Amazon is the third largest digital advertising company in the world.

没错。

Okay.

随着人工智能让广告变得更高效、更精准、更有效、更个性化、内容更丰富，亚马逊正好站在这场浪潮的中心。

So, as AI makes advertising meaningfully more efficient and targeted and effective and personal and rich for consumers, Amazon is at the center of that wave.

另外，亚马逊花了二十年时间，建成了全球最大的实体商品配送物流网络。

Additionally, Amazon has spent twenty years building out the world's largest logistical infrastructure for the delivery of physical product to humans.

这项投入，其他公司根本没法比。

An investment that no other company has even come close to making.

哪怕只是把利润率提升几个百分点，对亚马逊来说都是翻天覆地的变化。

That investment, even moving the margin needle a few points is a game changer for Amazon.

所以，当我们进入这个智能、自动化和机器人主导的新时代，亚马逊已经凭借全球最大电商和最大物流公司的基础设施，准备好大举受益于无限智能带来的生产力和效率提升。

So, as we enter this new world of intelligence and automation and robotics, okay, Amazon already has the infrastructure as the world's largest e commerce company, the largest logistics company to benefit massively from the increases productivity and efficiencies that infinite free intelligence.

最终我们会看到的是具身智能，也就是机器人技术，对吧？

And eventually what we're going to see is embodied intelligence, right, with robotics, right?

这将带来前所未有的生产力和效率提升。

This is going to result in productivity and efficiency gains unlike we've ever experienced as humans.

亚马逊是唯一一家能从这一切中获益最多的公司。

Amazon is the number one company to benefit from all of that.

听你这么说，简直像在布道。

Sound like you're given a sermon.

你完全信服了。

You're bought in.

顺便说一句，他们还持有Anthropic大约15%的股份。

And by the way, they own like 15% of Anthropic too.

而且这正是最有趣的地方。

They just and that's what's so funny here.

如果Anthropic明年上市时估值在1万亿到2万亿美元之间——谁知道呢，我觉得这可能性不小——那亚马逊从这次IPO赚的钱，会超过他们那2000亿美元的资本支出，而大家现在还为那笔钱忧心忡忡呢。

Now, if Anthropic IPOs between 1 and 2,000,000,000,000, which who knows, I think there's a reasonable chance they will next year, Amazon will make more money off that IPO than the 200,000,000,000 they spent on CapEx that everybody's so worried about.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们现在生活在一个信息噪音比以往任何时候都多的时代。

And so again, we are living in an age when the market has more noise than it's ever had.

每天的故事都在变。

The stories are changing every day.

作为投资者，根本不可能从这些杂音里理出头绪。

Like, it's impossible as an investor to cut through the noise.

所以最难的地方就在于，我觉得很多新投资者干脆放弃了，觉得这些东西实在跟不上。

So, that's what's so difficult is I think most new investors, they just give up because they're like, I can't keep up with all this stuff.

你根本不需要跟上所有这些事。

You don't have to keep up with any of it.

只要找到一家公司，它正好处在能从你看到的世界变化中获得实质性收益的位置上。

Just find one company that sits in a place where they stand to benefit meaningfully from something that you're seeing in the world.

比如亚马逊，它就正好搭上了人工智能这班车。

It could be AI with Amazon.

比如最近我做的一个大交易，核心逻辑就是今年夏天人字拖很流行，对吧？

It could be the fact, you know, one of my big trades recent, you know, one of my big trade thesis is recently is flip flops are trending this summer, right?

因为去年夏天有一家叫Row的公司推出了750美元的人字拖，结果现在全世界的人都想穿人字拖，因为它成了潮流。

Because last summer there were $750 flip flops made by a company called Row, and now every person in the world wants to wear flip flops because they're they're on trend.

你晚上去俱乐部都可以穿着人字拖。

You can go out at night to a club wearing flip flops.

所以有一家巴西公司，它是全球最大的几家人字拖制造商之一。

And so there's a Brazilian company that is one of the largest, you know, makers of flip flops.

世界上发生的变化真的太多了。

There's so many ways to kind of like orb change in the world.

你刚才说亚马逊是你多年来持仓最集中的一只股票，从比例上来说，这对你意味着多少？

When you said Amazon was your most concentrated bet in a long time, what does that mean percentage wise for you?

目前亚马逊占我投资组合价值的50%左右。

Amazon right now is about 50% of my portfolio value.

而且除此之外

And on top of that

你刚才说的是百分之五十，还是百分之十五？

Did you say five zero or one five?

百分之五十。

Five zero.

除此之外，我还有亚马逊的期权，价值大概又占了百分之五十。

On top of that, I have options in Amazon that account for, you know, another 50%.

所以理论上讲，要是把期权也算上，现在我的投资组合里差不多有七成都是亚马逊。

So, theoretically, I mean, yeah, if you count the amount that those options represent, it could be like 70% of my portfolio is Amazon right now.

我对这笔交易的信心就这么大。

That's how confident I am in that trade.

你下了这么重的注之后，比如埃德·索普，那位著名的投资者、对冲基金先驱，他写过一本特别有意思的书，里面讲了个趣事：他说自己一做完交易，就跑去度假，一躺就是六个月，静观其变。

So after you make a bet like that, you know, well, Ed Thorpe has this cool book, you know, the famous investor, one of the early hedge fund guys, where he kind of like a funny story is he's like, I make my trade, and then I just go and hang out for like six months, and I just see what happens.

还有人说他整天打网球，别人问他：你就不去上班吗？

And there's like stories of him like playing tennis throughout the day, and they're like, shouldn't you be at work?

他就说：交易我已经做了。

He's like, I made the trade.

咱们看看接下来会发生什么。

Let's see what's gonna happen.

所以你是下了注之后就先放一放，不怎么管它吗？

So are you making that bet and then kind of stepping away for a little while?

还是说你每天都要频繁操作？

Or are you gonna be are you active every single day then?

这个理念我真的很喜欢。

I love that concept by the way.

几个月来我一直说，今年夏天正是深入研究你交易的好时机。

I've been saying for months, this is the summer to deep research your trade.

一旦定好计划，就干脆放手不管，因为每天、每周市场上那些噪音，99%都无关紧要。

Make it and then just walk away because 99% of the noise hitting this market on a day to day basis, week to week basis, doesn't matter at all.

其实市场没那么多大动静，也没必要天天盯着看。

And there is not that much happening and changing where you need to be that concerned about the market on a day in and day out basis.

不过我也没打算整个夏天都跑去打网球，完全不管了。

Now, I'm not completely just going off and playing tennis for the rest of the summer.

我一直在关注市场的动态，但我觉得未来几周甚至几个月内，不太可能有什么事能真正动摇我对亚马逊的看法。

I am heaping up with what's happening in the market, but I don't think there's going to be anything that's going to happen over the course of the next few weeks to couple months that would meaningfully change my thesis on Amazon.

也许会有，但我对亚马逊的判断是基于一个长远趋势，我觉得这个趋势会在未来几年逐步显现，而不是几个月内就发生改变。

Something might, but my thesis on Amazon is fairly large and it's based on something that I believe is going to unravel over the next few years as opposed to unravel over the next few months.

所以这笔交易的集中度确实很高，风险不小。

So it's a massive concentration risk that I'm putting on this trade.

但这就是我的操作方式。

But this is what I do.

对吧？

Right?

想获得远超平均水平的回报，就必须承担超出常规的风险。

Like you can't generate outsized returns without taking outside risk.

这事儿根本没法回避。

You just can't do it.

顺便说一句，我觉得大多数人不该在整个投资组合里都这么干。

By the way guys, I don't think that most people should be doing this across their entire portfolio.

我总是跟人说，我不是理财顾问，但你得把资产按风险等级分类，对吧？

I always tell people like, and I'm not a financial advisor obviously, but you got to bucket your assets for different risk categories, right?

我觉得每个人都该有个大额投资账户。

So, I think everybody should have a big money account.

不管你一开始只存50块进去，都该有个账户，专门用来承担高风险、博取高回报。

I don't care if you start with $50 in that account, but everyone should have an account where they're willing to take big risk for big gains.

你没必要把孩子的教育金或者退休金放进去。

And you don't have to take your kids, you know, college savings to put in that account or your retirement money in that account.

你完全可以从生活中做一些取舍开始。

You could just start making trade offs in your life.

比如自己剪草、自己煮咖啡，省下的每一分钱都放进这个大额账户，然后时不时拿去赌一把你真正看好的机会。

Like, I don't know, mow your own lawn or make your own coffee, but every dollar that you save, put it in this big money account and then use it to actually take a big risk every once in a while in something that you believe in.

这样你才有机会成为顶尖的那1%投资者。

So that you have a chance of becoming a top 1% investor.

但一定要通过权衡取舍来做。

But do it with trade offs.

用别人的钱去做。

Do it with other people's money.

对吧？

Right?

比如每五周剪一次头发，别每四周就剪一次。

Like get your haircut every five weeks instead of every four weeks.

我不知道。

I don't know.

比如把大件购物推迟六个月。

Like delay that big purchase six months.

那台大屏幕电视六个月前贵了两百块。

So the big screen TV is $200 less than it was six months earlier.

把你省下的两百块，存进你的大额投资账户。

Take the $200 you saved, put it in your big money investment account.

如果你用这种方式来充实这个账户，你就不会害怕承担集中型风险。

If that's how you fund that account, then you're not afraid to take a concentrated risk.

如果你把所有钱都混在一起，要大胆投资某样东西就会特别难，因为心理上你很难把这么多钱押在一个高风险项目上。

If you're co mingling your money altogether, it could be really hard to take a big risk on something because it's psychologically difficult for you to throw that much money into a risky investment.

所以你得把钱分门别类地管理。

So you have to bucket your money.

这是投资者最重要的一课之一。

This is like one of the most important lessons for investors.

我愿意这么做。

I'm willing to do it.

对吧？

Right?

要是真有哪只股票能把我搞垮，比如亚马逊，让我的投资声誉毁于一旦，那就让它来吧。

Like, I'm if Amazon is the stock that takes me down as an investor and ruins my reputation, then let it be.

但你根本不会被它拖垮。

Well, it's definitely not gonna take you it won't take you down.

不过我也说不准。

Well, I don't know.

我不太清楚你杠杆用得有多高。

Well, I don't know how leveraged you are.

但我的意思是，这东西又不是说没就没了。

But I mean, it's not like it's like a it's not like it's it's not gonna it ain't going away.

没错。

No.

不过嘛，谁也说不准。

It well, you never know.

它确实有可能。

It it could.

但我要说的是，各位。

But here's the thing guys.

我对自己在市场上的每一步都坦诚相告。

I have been so transparent about everything I've ever done in the market.

我什么都讲。

I talk about everything.

我会讲到好的、坏的，还有风险因素。

I talk about the good, the bad, the risk factors.

亏钱的时候，我也坦白说亏了多少钱。

And when I lose, I talk about how much money I lost.

我从不建议任何人照搬我的交易。

I do not advise anyone to try to mirror my trades.

我只是希望别人能了解我的思维方式。

I just want people to see how I think.

我想让大家看到我是怎么看待风险、集中度，还有观察型投资的。

I want them to see how I think about risk, how I think about concentration, how I think about observational investing.

我把一切都公开分享给所有人。

I just share everything with the world.

顺便说一句，我想你们应该都知道这一点。

And by the way, you guys I think know this.

我是为数不多的金融内容创作者之一，当然可能还有其他一两个。

I'm one of the only, I'm sure there's at least a couple others, financial content creators.

我从来没卖过任何东西。

I've never sold anything.

我没有开设任何课程。

I don't have courses.

我一样东西都不卖。

I don't sell a thing.

你的社群是免费的吗？

Is your community free?

老兄，我连广告赞助都不接。

Dude, I don't even take sponsorships.

你知道吗？我这一辈子从来没接过任何赞助。

Do you know that I haven't taken one sponsorship my entire life?

我不会收广告商一分钱。

I won't take $1 from an advertiser.

我也不会收社群成员一分钱。

I won't take $1 from a community member.

不是的。唯一卖过的东西就是成本价出售的T恤和连帽衫。

Not what The only thing that's ever been sold is we sell some t shirts and hoodies at cost.

你知道的，我收回刚才的话。

You know, I take that back.

你知道我从社区里获得的最大价值就是合作。

You know the value I get out of my community is collaboration.

我从社区里得到了很多好点子，他们也帮我筛选我自己的创意。

I get so many great ideas from our community and they help vet my own ideas.

这大概让我赚的钱，比我去卖课、接赞助还有那些乱七八糟的东西加起来还要多。

That's probably made me more money than I could have ever have made from courses and selling sponsorships and all that stuff.

顺便说一句，我对这一点非常佩服。

By the way, I have a lot of respect for that.

我是真的，你知道的，很信任这种做法。

I think, you know, a, I trust that.

这让我对你的信任感直线上升。

My trust goes up.

正如我所说，我以前对YouTube上的金融、股票博主和交易员特别怀疑。

Like I said, I was very skeptical of finance and stock influencers and traders on on YouTube.

但你既不卖课程，也不向社区收费，还不接广告，这些真的非常难得，也特别值得敬佩。

But, you know, the fact that you're not selling courses, not charging for community, not taking sponsors, and all that, that that is, I think, extremely commendable and extremely rare.

所以我必须给你点个赞。

So I I gotta give you props To for

说实话，事情是这样的。

be to be on I mean, here's the deal.

我们一直都说，如果你真有那么厉害，那又何必呢。

Like, we always say it, like, if you're so great at something, which come on.

我过去十七年一直做得不错。

I mean, been I've been great the last seventeen years.

我的投资组合赚的钱多得惊人。

I make an insane amount of money from my portfolio.

根本没必要做这些事。

Don't need to do any of that.

我赚的钱是多少，都是公开的。

The amount of money I make is public.

我很幸运，根本不需要做这些事。

I'm very fortunate to not have to do that.

我真的没必要做这些。

And I just don't need to do that.

所以我根本不打算做这些。

So, I don't want to do that.

但我在这儿有个更大的目标。

But I do have an overriding goal here.

我一生的使命，就是让地球上每个人都能成为投资者。

My goal, my mission in life is to bring every human on earth into the investor class.

这就是我为什么在YouTube上做内容。

And that's why I'm on YouTube.

这也是我为什么在X上活跃的原因。

That's why I'm on X.