让幸运成为你的命运

我觉得挺有意思的是，你所描述的前三种运气，都有非常常见的陈词滥调，人人都知道。

I think it's pretty interesting that the first three kinds of luck that you described, there are very common cliches for them that everybody knows.

但对于那种源于你独特行为方式而降临的最后一种运气，却并没有真正的陈词滥调。

And then for that last kind of luck that comes to you out of the unique way that you act, there's no real cliche for it.

所以对于前三种运气，有‘傻运’或‘盲运’的说法。

So for the first three kinds, there's dumb luck or blind luck.

这是第一种运气。

That's the first kind of luck.

第二种运气，有句陈词滥调说‘命运眷顾勇者’。

The second kind of luck, there's the cliche that fortune favors the bold.

这是一种人通过主动行动、搅动局面而获得运气的情况。

That's a person who gets lucky just by stirring the pot and acting.

第三种运气，人们说‘机会青睐有准备的头脑’。

The third kind of luck, people say that chance favors the prepared mind.

但对于第四种运气，目前并没有一个常见的陈词滥调能匹配你行为的独特性，我觉得这很有趣，或许是一种机遇，同时也表明人们并没有像他们应该做的那样充分利用这种运气。

But for the fourth kind of luck, there is not really a common cliche out there that matches the unique character of your action, which I think is interesting and perhaps an opportunity, and it also just shows that people aren't necessarily taking advantage of that kind of luck the way they should be.

我认为，到了那个阶段，事情变得如此必然，以至于不再算是运气了。

I think also at that point, it starts becoming so deterministic that it stops being luck.

所以，这种定义开始从运气转向更多的命运。

So the definition starts fading from luck to more destiny.

因此，我会把第四种运气描述为：你以某种方式塑造了自己的品格，而你的品格最终成为了你的命运。

So I would characterize that fourth one is you build your character in a certain way and then your character becomes your destiny.

我认为，赚钱的一个重要方面是，你要建立一种让人愿意通过你做交易的声誉。

One of the things I think that is important to making money, you want the kind of reputation that makes people do deals through you.

举个例子，如果你是个出色的潜水员，寻宝者就会来找你，分给你一部分宝藏作为你潜水技能的回报。

You know, I use the example of like, if you're a great diver, then treasure hunters will come and give you a piece of the treasure for your diving skills.

如果你是一个值得信赖、可靠、正直、具有长期思维的交易者，当其他人想做交易，却不知道如何与陌生人建立信任时，他们会主动来找你，给你一笔交易的分成，或提供一个独特的交易机会，仅仅因为你积累的诚信和声誉。

If you are a trusted, reliable, high integrity, long term thinking dealmaker, then when other people want to do deals but they don't know how to do them in a trustworthy manner with strangers, they will literally approach you and give you a cut of the deal or offer you a unique deal just because of the integrity and reputation that you've built up.

沃伦·巴菲特之所以能获得各种交易机会，能收购公司、购买认股权证、救助银行，做别人做不到的事，正是因为他拥有这样的声誉。

Warren Buffett, he gets offered deals and he gets to buy companies and he gets to buy warrants and bail out banks and do things that other people can't do because of his reputation.

但当然，这种声誉是脆弱的。

But of course, that's fragile.

这关系到责任的承担。

It has accountability on the line.

这关系到强大的品牌。

It has a strong brand on the line.

正如我们后面将要讨论的，这伴随着责任。

And as we will talk about later, that comes with accountability attached.

但我会说，你的品格、你的声誉，这些都是你可以建立起来的，它们将让你抓住那些别人称之为幸运的机会，但你知道，这并不是运气。

But I would say your character, your reputation, these are things that you can build that then will let you take out advantages of opportunities that other people may characterize as lucky, but you know that it wasn't luck.

你说这种第四种幸运更像是命运。

You said that this fourth kind of luck is more or less a destiny.

那篇原始书籍的引文出现在马克的博客文章中，作者是本杰明·迪斯雷利，我认为他曾是英国首相。

There's a quote from that original book that was in, Mark's blog post from Benjamin Disraeli, who I think was the former prime minister of The UK.

用来描述这种幸运的引文是：我们创造自己的命运，并称之为宿命。

The quote to describe this kind of luck was, we make our fortunes, and we call them fate.

这篇博客文章还提到了关于这种幸运的其他一些有趣的观点。

There were a couple other interesting things about this kind of luck that were mentioned in the blog post.

我认为让听众了解这一点会很有好处：这种第四种运气往往源于你做事时一些特立独行的方式，而在这种情况下，特立独行未必是坏事。

I think it'll be good for the listeners to hear about is that this fourth kind of luck can almost come out of eccentric ways that you do your things, and that eccentricity is not necessarily a bad thing in this case.

事实上，这是一件好事。

In fact, it's a good thing.

没错。

Yeah.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

因为这个世界非常高效，每个人都已经挖掘过所有显而易见的地方。

Because the world is a very efficient place, so everyone has dug through all the obvious places to dig.

因此，要发现新的、新颖的、未被发掘的东西，你就得在前沿领域行动，而身处前沿本身就要求你有点特立独行，然后你还得愿意比别人挖得更深，深到看似不理性，只因为你对此感兴趣。

And so to find something that's new and novel and uncovered, it helps to be operating on a frontier where right there you have to be a little eccentric to be out on the frontier by yourself and then you just have to be willing to dig deeper than other people do, deeper than seems irrational just because you're interested.

是的。

Yeah.

除了本杰明·迪斯雷利的那句名言之外，我还看到过另外两句表达这种运气的话，其中一句是萨姆·奥特曼说的：极端的人会获得极端的结果。

The two quotes that I've seen that express this kind of luck in addition to that Benjamin Disraeli one are this one from Sam Altman where he said extreme people get extreme results.

我觉得这挺好的。

I think that's pretty nice.

还有这一句来自斯坦福大学的杰弗里·费弗尔：你不可能保持正常，却期待非正常的回报。

And then there's this other one from Jeffrey Feffer, who is a professor at Stanford, that you can't be normal and expect abnormal returns.

我也一直很喜欢这句话。

I've always enjoyed that one too.

是的，我喜欢另一句完全相反的话：玩愚蠢的游戏，赢愚蠢的奖品。

Yeah and one quote that I like which is the exact opposite of that is play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

对吧？

Right?

很多人花大量时间玩社交游戏，比如在推特上，只是想提升自己的社交地位，最终赢得的是一些毫无价值的愚蠢社交奖赏。

A lot of people spend a lot of their time playing social games like on Twitter where you're just trying to improve your social standing and you basically win stupid social prizes, which are worthless.

我想，这篇博文最后提到的观点是，通过追求这类运气——尤其是最后一种，基本上除了傻运气之外的所有类型——你最终会耗尽‘解锁’的机会。

I guess the last thing that I have from this blog post is just the idea that by pursuing these kinds of luck, especially the last one, basically, everything but dumb luck, by pursuing them, you essentially run out of unlock.

所以，只要你不断搅动、不断搅动，仅凭这一点，你就会耗尽‘解锁’的机会。

So if you just keep stirring the pot and stirring the pot, that alone, you will run out of unlock.

是的。

Yeah.

或者这

Or it

可能只是回归均值。

could just be a reversion to the mean.

对吧？

Right?

这样至少能中和运气的影响，让你的才能发挥作用。

So then you at least neutralize luck so that it's your own talents that come into play.