与理性乐观者同行

我们来发这条最后的推文吧。

Let's do this last tweet.

你说过不要和愤世嫉俗者和悲观主义者合作。

You said don't partner with cynics and pessimists.

他们的信念会自我实现。

Their beliefs are self fulfilling.

是的。

Yeah.

本质上，要创造事物，你必须是一个理性的乐观主义者。

Essentially, to create things, you have to be a rational optimist.

理性意味着你必须能够看清世界的本来面目，但同时你必须对自己的能力和实现目标的能力保持乐观。

Rational in the sense that you have to be able see the world for what it really is, and yet you have to be optimistic about your own capabilities and your capability to get things done.

我们都知道一些总是悲观的人，他们会否定一切。

We all know people who are consistently pessimistic, who will shoot down everything.

每个人一生中都会遇到那种爱提建设性批评的人。

Everyone in their life has, like, the helpful critical guy.

对吧？

Right?

他以为自己是在帮忙，但实际上他是在批评，而且让一切都变得灰暗。

He thinks he's being helpful, but he's actually being critical, and he's a downer on everything.

这样的人不仅自己一生中永远不会做出什么伟大的事，还会阻止身边的人做出伟大的成就。

That person will not only never do anything great in their lives, they'll prevent other people around them for doing something great.

他们认为自己的职责就是挑毛病。

They think their job is to shoot holes in things.

挑毛病是可以的，只要你同时提出解决方案。

And it's okay to shoot holes in things as long as you come up with a solution.

还有一句经典的军事格言：要么领导，要么跟随，要么让开。

There's also the classic, like, military line, either lead, follow, or get out of the way.

而这些人却想要第四种选择：他们既不想领导，也不想跟随，但也不愿让开。

And these people want a fourth option where they don't wanna lead, they don't wanna follow, but they don't wanna get out of the way.

他们只想告诉你这件事为什么不会成功。

They wanna tell you why the thing's not gonna work.

我认识的所有真正成功的人，都具有非常强烈的行动倾向。

And all the really successful people I know have a very strong action bias.

他们就是会去行动。

They just do things.

判断一件事是否可行的最简单方法，就是去实践它。

The easiest way to figure out if something's viable or not is by doing it.

至少先迈出第一步、第二步、第三步，然后再做决定。

At least do the first step and the second step and the third and then decide.

所以，如果你想在生活中取得成功——无论是创造财富、建立良好关系、保持健康，甚至获得幸福——你就需要对实现目标拥有行动倾向，并对此保持乐观。

So if you wanna be successful in life creating wealth or having good relationships or being fit or even being happy, you need to have an action bias towards getting what you want, and you have to be optimistic about it.

不是盲目乐观。

Not irrationally.

你知道，最糟糕的就是那种鲁莽行事、盲目追逐的人。

You know, there's nothing worse than someone who's just, like, foolhardy and chasing them.

不值得。

Not worth.

这就是为什么我说要做一个理性的乐观主义者。

That's why say rational optimist.

但你必须理性，了解所有的陷阱和不利因素，同时依然保持积极。

But you have to be rational, know all the pitfalls, know the downsides, but still keep your chin up.

我的意思是，你在这颗星球上只有一次生命。

I mean, you've got one life on this planet.

为什么不尝试去创造一些伟大的东西呢？

Why not try to build something big?

这就是埃隆·马斯克的可贵之处，也是我认为他激励了如此多人的原因——他敢于承担真正宏大而大胆的任务，并为人们树立了志存高远的榜样。

This is the beauty of Elon Musk and why I think he inspires so many people is just because he takes on really, really big audacious tasks, and he provides an example for people to think big.

即使建造很小的东西也需要付出大量努力。

And it takes a lot of work to build even small things.

我不认为街角杂货店的店主比埃隆·马斯克工作得更少，或者流的汗和付出的辛劳更少，也许反而更多。

I don't think the corner grocery store owner is working any less hard than Elon Musk or pouring any less sweat and toil into it, maybe even more.

但不知出于什么原因，比如教育背景或境遇，他们没有机会去想得那么大，所以结果也就没那么宏大。

But for whatever reason, you know, education, circumstance, they didn't get the chance to think as big, so the outcome's not as big.

所以，显然，在能力范围内理性地大胆思考会更好，保持乐观。

So it's just better to think big, obviously, rationally within your means to stay optimistic.

愤世嫉俗者和悲观主义者实际上在说——幸运的是，他们本质上是在说：我放弃了。

The cynics and the pessimists, what they're really saying and fortunate, but they're basically saying, I've given up.

我认为自己什么都做不了。

I don't think I can do anything.

因此，在我看来，这个世界就是一个谁也做不成任何事的世界。

And so the world to me just looks like a world where nobody can do anything.

那你还为什么要去做点什么呢？

And so why should you go do something?

因为如果你失败了，那就证明我是对的，这很好。

Because if you fail, then I'm right, which is great.

但如果你成功了，那你只是让我显得很糟糕。

But if you succeed, then you just make me look bad.

是的。

Yeah.

与其做一个理性的愤世嫉俗者，不如做一个非理性的乐观主义者。

It's probably better to be an irrational optimist than it is to be a rational cynic.

没错。

Yeah.

从理性角度出发，完全有理由选择成为乐观主义者。

There's a completely rational frame on why you should be an optimist.

从历史上看，如果追溯到两千年前、五千年前、一万年前，两个人走进了一片丛林。

Historically, if you go back two thousand years, five thousand years, ten thousand years, two people are wandering into a jungle.

他们听到了老虎的叫声。

They hear a tiger.

一个是乐观主义者，说：哦，它没朝我们这边来。

One's an optimist and says, oh, it's not headed our way.

另一个说：我是个悲观主义者。

The other one says, I'm a pessimist.

我得赶紧跑。

I'm out of here.

而悲观者逃跑并活了下来，乐观者却被吃掉了。

And the pessimist runs and survives, and the optimist gets eaten.

所以我们是悲观者的后代。

So we're descended from pessimists.

我们的基因天生就倾向于悲观。

We're genetically hardwired to be pessimists.

但现代社会要安全得多。

But modern society is far, far safer.

街上不会再有老虎游荡。

There are no tigers wandering down the street.

你陷入彻底破产的可能性非常低，尽管你应该避免彻底破产。

It's very unlikely that you will end up in total ruin, although you should avoid total ruin.

更有可能的是，收益是无限的，而损失是有限的。

Much more likely that the upside is unlimited and the downside is limited.

因此，适应现代社会意味着克服你的悲观情绪，采取略微非理性的乐观行动，因为收益是无限的。

So adapting for modern society means overriding your pessimism and taking slightly irrationally optimistic bets because the upside is unlimited.

如果你创办了下一个SpaceX、特斯拉或Uber，你就能为社会和自己创造数十亿美元的价值，并改变世界。

If you start the next SpaceX or Tesla or Uber, you can make billions of dollars of value for society and for yourself and change the world.

如果你失败了，那又有什么大不了的？

And if you fail, what's the big deal?

你只是损失了几百万美元的投资人资金，而他们还有更多资金，这就是他们所承担的赌注，以及你成功的可能性。

You lost a few million dollars of investor money, and they've got plenty more, and that's the bet they take and the chances that you will succeed.

在过去，保持悲观是有道理的。

It made sense to be pessimistic in the past.

如今，保持乐观是有道理的，尤其是如果你受过教育并生活在发达国家。

It makes sense to be optimistic today, especially if you're educated and living in a first world country.

即使是发展中国家，我认为发展中国家的经济机会要大得多。

Even a third world country, I actually think the economic opportunity in third world countries are much larger.

你必须避免的唯一风险是毁灭性的风险。

The one thing you have to avoid is the risk of ruin.

毁灭意味着不要坐牢。

Ruin means stay out of jail.

所以不要做任何违法的事情。

So don't do anything that's illegal.

穿橙色囚服并陷入彻底的灾难性损失，从来都不值得。

It's never worth it to wear an orange jumpsuit and stay out of total catastrophic loss.

这可能意味着你要避开那些可能带来身体危险、伤害你健康的事情。

That could mean that you stay out of things that could be physically dangerous, hurt your body.

你必须关注自己的健康，远离那些可能导致你失去全部资本和储蓄的事情。

You have to watch your health and stay out of things that can cause you to lose all of your capital, all of your savings.

它会孤注一掷。

It'll gamble everything at one go.

但你要理性地乐观押注，追求巨大的回报。

But you take rationally optimistic bets with big upside.

我认为，有些人会试图发展和深化你的想法，无论它们看起来多么不切实际；而另一些人则会列出所有显而易见的例外情况，无论这些例外多么明显。

I think there's people that will try and build up your ideas and build on your ideas no matter how far fetched they might seem, and then there are people who will list out all the obvious exceptions no matter how obvious they are.

幸运的是，在创业世界里，我甚至几乎接触不到那些给你罗列各种显而易见的障碍和失败理由的人。

And, fortunately, in the startup world, I don't even really get exposed to the people that are giving you the obvious exceptions and all the reasons it's not going to work.

我几乎再也接触不到那种人了。

I barely get exposed to that anymore.

那就是Twitter的作用。

That's what Twitter is for.

斯科特·亚当斯对此感到非常厌烦，于是创造了一个缩写词：‘但当然，总有明显例外’，即 B O C T A O E。

Scott Adams got so annoyed by this that he came up with the phrase, an acronym, which is, but, of course, there are obvious exceptions, b o c t a o e.

他曾经有一段时间会在文章末尾贴上这个缩写。

And he used to, like, pin that acronym at the end of his articles for a while.

但Twitter上到处都是吹毛求疵的人。

But Twitter is just, like, overrun with nitpickers.

而正如你所指出的，硅谷已经明白，潜在回报如此巨大，以至于你绝不会轻视那个穿着连帽衫、鞋上沾着咖啡、看起来邋里邋遢的孩子，因为你不知道他会不会是下一个马克·扎克伯格或下一个雷德·霍夫曼。

And where exactly as you're pointing out, Silicon Valley has learned that the upside is so great that you never look down on the slobby kid who's wearing a hoodie and has, like, coffee on his shoes and just look like a slob because you don't know if he's gonna be the next Mark Zuckerberg or the next Reid Hoffman.

所以你必须尊重每一个人。

So you gotta treat everybody with respect.

你必须重视每一个可能性和机会，因为在现代世界，尤其是在金融资产和工具的背景下，潜在回报几乎是无限的，而风险却非常有限。

You gotta look up to every possibility and opportunity because the upside is so unlimited and the downside is so limited in the modern world, especially with financial assets and instruments.