斯科特·米尔斯被BBC解雇

这个BBC播客由英国境外的广告支持。

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside The UK.

如果市场是个朋友，它会是那个不断发消息、频繁更新观点的人。

If the markets were a friend, they'd be the one who texts constantly, updates opinions.

你看到这个了吗？

Did you see this?

全天候，日复一日。

All day, every day.

Capital.com 并不是这条对话中的另一个声音。

Capital.com isn't another voice in that thread.

它是消息之间的空白地带，将新闻、图表和经济日历整合到一处，让你在纷繁信息中看清全貌。

It's the space between the messages, bringing news, charts, and economic calendars into one place to give you the full picture in between the noise.

Capital.com。

Capital.com.

专为清晰而设计。

Designed for clarity.

差价合约具有高风险。

CFDs involve a high level of risk.

81.31%的零售投资者亏损了资金。

Eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money.

你好。

Hello.

周一午餐前，有一条BBC新闻推送通知，让你们的微信群瞬间沸腾了起来。

Just before lunchtime on Monday was one of those BBC News push alerts which got your WhatsApp groups fired up.

消息称，BBC解雇了BBC广播二台晨间节目的主持人斯科特·米尔斯，他曾在该公司任职数十年。

It was the news that the BBC had sacked the presenter of the Radio two Breakfast Show, Scott Mills, somebody who'd had a decades long career at the corporation.

因此，我们将在本期《Newscast》中讨论此事，以及中东战争的最新进展。

So we will talk about that and the latest on the war in The Middle East in this episode of Newscast.

Newscast。

Newscast.

BBC出品的Newscast。

Newscast from the BBC.

Top boy 在教室里陪我练小提琴。

Top boy sliver me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

我是班上的告密者。

I was the tattle tale in the class.

你能向我道歉吗？

Can I have an apology, please?

我几乎不相信任何人。

I trust almost nobody.

有时候爸爸得说点重话。

Then daddy has to sometimes do strong language.

下次在莫斯科。

Next time in Moscow.

我感觉露露没有萨露露。

I feel the lulu with no salulu.

带我去唐尼街。

Take me down to Downey Street.

左边。

Left.

去逛一逛吧。

Go have a tour.

天哪。

Blimey.

你好。

Hello.

这里是亚当在新闻演播室，我们先来谈谈周一午餐前刚刚爆出的消息：BBC在数十年后解雇了斯科特·米尔斯。

It's Adam in the newscast studio, and we will start with that story that broke just before lunchtime on Monday that the BBC had sacked Scott Mills after decades and decades on the nation's airwaves.

全天跟进这一报道的是BBC文化与媒体编辑拉扎尔，他现在在这里。

The person who's been covering the story all day is the BBC's culture and media editor, Razzall, who's here.

嗨，凯蒂。

Hi, Katie.

你好，亚当。

Hello, Adam.

好的。

Right.

给我们讲讲这个事件的来龙去脉。

Give us the timeline of how this story emerged.

好吧，我们要感谢《每日镜报》，因为他们率先曝光了斯科特·米尔斯因个人行为问题被解雇的消息。

Well, let's give credit to The Mirror because The Mirror had the scoop, if you like, that Scott Mills had been sacked for personal conduct reasons.

哦，是的。

Oh, yes.

因为他们正好在上午11:30发布了独家报道，而BBC的声明也是在同一时间发布的。

Because they posted their story at 11:30 on the dot with the headline exclusive, which was roughly the same time as the BBC statement went out.

没错。

Exactly.

所以我们并不清楚背后的细节。

So we don't know the backstory to that.

我们不知道《每日镜报》是否先拿到了消息并通知了BBC，然后BBC才展开调查，或者是否BBC内部有人向《每日镜报》泄露了消息。

We don't know whether the Mirror had the story went to the BBC, the BBC then investigated, or whether the BBC, you know, someone somewhere alerted the Mirror.

我们对此一无所知。

We don't know any of that.

但我们知道的是，《镜报》获得了独家报道。

But what we do know is the Mirror had it as an exclusive.

我们收到了这封邮件。

We got this email.

这是一份发给员工的内部通知，对吧？来自音乐总监洛娜·克拉克。

It was an internal note to staff, wasn't it, from Lorna Clark, who's director of music.

我来读一下吗？

Shall I read that?

好的。

Yeah.

或者读最重要的部分。

Or read the most important bits.

所以这让人很震惊。

So it it was a shock.

我的意思是，她说：我想亲自通知你，斯科特·米尔斯已经离开了BBC的晨间节目。

I mean, she says, I wanted to personally let you know that Scott Mills has left the breakfast show in the BBC.

我知道这个消息会来得突然且出人意料，因此对许多与斯科特共事多年的同事来说，这无疑是个震惊。

I know this news will be sudden and unexpected and therefore must come as a shock, not least to many of us who've worked with Scott over a great many years.

因为显然，他不仅最近在第二广播电台工作过，还曾在第一广播电台、第五广播电台、第二广播电台，当然还有电视领域工作过。

Because obviously, you know, he has worked across not just Radio two most recently, but Radio one, Five Live, Radio two, and of course, TV.

然后她继续说，当然，这个消息也会让我们的听众和晨间节目的听众感到震惊。

And then she goes on to say, of course, it will also come as a shock to our audience and lower breakfast show listeners too.

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，他去年接替了佐伊·布尔的晨间节目。

I mean, he he took over Zoe Bulls breakfast show last year.

这个节目大约有650万听众。

It has about 6,500,000 listeners.

所以这是全国最大的晨间节目。

So it is the biggest breakfast show in the country.

他自然就成了这个节目的代言人。

And he became the face of it, obviously.

不过，既然是广播，你真的能说‘面孔’吗？

Although, can you say face when it's radio?

有点吧。

Sort of.

一切都已经被视觉化了。

Everything's visualized Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

但事实上，这个故事有个关键点，那就是上周二，他告别了自己的节目。

Although not it turns out not because there's a key bit to this story, which is last Tuesday, he signed off his show.

是的。

Yeah.

他要把节目交棒给明天。

He's handing over to tomorrow.

说明天见。

Said see you tomorrow.

然后就再也没有出现过。

And then didn't appear again.

所以看起来他们得知了消息，于周三把他撤下了。

So it looks like they got wind of it and took him off on Wednesday.

但当我 earlier 在我的早上6点新闻中试图加入这一点时，只有音频。

But when I tried to put that in my 06:00 news piece earlier, it was only the audio.

所以你说一切都可视化了。

So you say everything visualized.

实际上并不是。

It's actually not.

但回到劳伦和克拉克的邮件，我想说的是，这封邮件的语气很有趣，因为它关心的是团队、员工和听众，而不是向更广泛的公众公布这个消息。

But going back to Lauren and Clark's email, I mean, as the the tone of that is interesting because that sort of that's an email that is caring about the team and the staff and the listeners, not necessarily breaking the news to the wider world.

这并不是一封面向公众的邮件，对吧？

That's not a public facing email, is it?

不，这是一封内部邮件。

No, that is an internal email.

当我们联系BBC时，显然我们已获准使用这封内部邮件，但BBC的回应是：我们不评论涉及个人的事务，但我们能确认斯科特·米尔斯不再与BBC签约。

And when we went to the BBC, and obviously we've been given permission to use that internal email, but when we went to the BBC, their statement was, we do not comment on matters relating to individuals, we can confirm Scott Mills is no longer contracted to work with the BBC.

当然，幕后我们进行了沟通，确认他已被解雇。

Now obviously behind the scenes, we were having conversations which confirmed that he had been sacked.

原因是个人行为不当。

It was for reasons of personal conduct.

但我们完全不知道具体是什么原因，也不清楚他究竟有何不当行为。

But we don't at all know what those reasons are or what that personal conduct or misbehaviour is.

当然，这并不意味着今晚报纸上不会出现相关报道，或者我们可能在今晚某个时候查明真相。

And, you know, that's not to say that there might not be a story in a newspaper tonight or indeed we might get to the bottom of it at some point, perhaps tonight.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

但目前情况还很模糊。

But at the moment, it's quite murky.

不是模糊，这个词用错了。

Not murky, that's the wrong word.

这听起来让人觉得不清楚。

That makes it It's sound unclear.

从‘个人行为’这个说法中能解读出什么吗？

Is there anything that can be read into that phrase personal conduct?

嗯，

Well

因为这暗示着——当然我只是完全在猜测——也许和工作无关的事情。

Because that suggests maybe, and I'm completely speculating here, maybe something that's not office related.

是的。

Yes.

BBC总是很谨慎地选择措辞，对吧？

So the BBC always chooses its words carefully, doesn't it?

尽管在他们的任何邮件或声明中都没有使用过‘个人行为’这个词。

Although it didn't put personal conduct in any of its emails or statements.

但我认为你说得对，在我看来，我报道过很多BBC的危机，其中不少都涉及主持人做了各种事情，包括明显属于犯罪的行为。

But I think you're right that it seems to me, I've reported on quite a lot of BBC crises, quite a lot of them involving presenters who've done various things, including obviously things that have been criminal.

确实存在一个问题，从某种意义上说，你无法预料人们在私人时间会做什么。

There is an issue, you know, in a way you can't account for what people do in their personal time.

作为上司，你不能对人们的行为负责，因为有些人——不只是男性——有些人行为恶劣。

As a boss, you can't be held liable for what people do because some people, not just men, some people behave badly.

对BBC来说，真正成问题的是，如果它的文化纵容了这些行为的发生或蔓延，以及事件曝光后它的应对方式。

What becomes a problem for the BBC is if it is something that its own culture allowed to happen or allowed to fester, and indeed then its reaction to it once it emerges.

所以在一些之前的案例中，比如，这是犯罪行为，这和我们所了解的斯科特·米尔斯的情况完全不同。

So in some of the previous cases, for example, and this is criminal, this is very different from what we know about Scott Mills.

所以我说的不是他所做的事情有任何可比性。

So I'm not I'm not saying what he's done is is at all comparable.

但当休·爱德华兹丑闻爆发时，显然，人们会记得当时的反应非常迟缓。

But when Hugh Edwards when the Hugh Edwards scandal broke, and obviously, people will remember it was very slow.

一开始没有公布他的名字，后来才公布，再过了一段时间才揭露这实际上是一种犯罪行为。

He wasn't named at the beginning, then he was, Then it emerged much later that this was actually criminal.

随后，他因制作儿童性虐待图像而被定罪。

And then obviously he was convicted of making child abuse images.

有人提出这种说法，但BBC对此予以否认；有人认为，BBC的文化助长了像他这样一位知名且有权势的人物，使他能够做出一些如果普通人做了就会被忽视的行为。

There was a suggestion, and that is disputed by the BBC, but there was a suggestion that the culture at the BBC enabled someone like that, who's a big famous face who can throw his weight around, that enabled him to behave in a way that if the rest of us had behaved in that way, it wouldn't have been overlooked.

我并不是说这真的成立，但我指出，这确实是一种说法。

Now, I'm not saying that's true, but I'm saying that was the suggestion.

而关于斯科特·米尔斯这件事的问题是：这些事情真的发生过吗？

And the problem for this the problem on the Scott Mills front is, did any of this happen?

不管发生了什么，这些事是在BBC的时间内发生的吗？

Well, whatever happened, was it on BBC Time?

这与BBC有关吗？

Was it something related to the BBC?

如果这些事与BBC无关，而是发生在外部，那可能就是完全不同的问题了。

If it wasn't and it was something outside, then that's probably a very different issue.

让我感到惊讶的是，这件事发生的速度如此之快。

Other thing that strikes me about this is just the speed at which it happened.

我们能从中学到什么？

What what do we think we can glean from that?

我认为我们可以得出结论，BBC在休·爱德华兹和其他重大丑闻发生后进行了文化审查。

Well, I think we can glean that the BBC held this cultural review after what happened with Hugh Edwards and other high profile scandals.

它表示，你知道，蒂姆·戴维、董事会主席萨米尔·沙阿都向文化与媒体支持委员会的议员们作证，基本上他们说，BBC里没有人是不可替代的。

It said, you know, Tim Davy, Samir Shah, the chairman of the board, they both spoke to MPs at the Culture and Media Support Committee, gave evidence where essentially they said, no one's irreplaceable at the BBC.

不管你有多出名。

It doesn't matter how famous you are.

如果你不践行BBC的价值观，你就得走人。

If you don't live BBC values, you're out the door.

蒂姆·戴维明确表示，这是一种新的做法，新的工作方式。

And Tim Davy very clearly said this is a new thing, a new way of working.

他明确传达了这一点。

It's making that clear.

因此，你可以从这个角度理解为：文化审查正在实际运作中。

So you could look at this and read it as, well, this is the culture review working in practice.

BBC表示，我们已经引入了新流程。

So we've brought in new processes, says the BBC.

我们对此进行了审视，并迅速做出了决定和处理。

We have looked at this, very swiftly reached a decision, a resolution.

他已经被开除了。

He's out the door.

当然，你可能会说，或许——我不确定答案是什么——之所以能这么迅速处理，是因为涉事人员主动承认了：‘是的，确实如此。’

Now, of course, you could say that perhaps, and I don't know the answer to this, but one of the reasons why you could do this swiftly is if the person in question has held their hand up and said, well, actually, yes, that is correct.

我不知道斯科特·米尔斯是否这样做了。

I have no idea whether Scott Mills did that.

但很明显，如果他确实这样做了，那BBC就有更大的空间说：‘好，他已经承认了。’

But it's clear that if he did do that, then that gives the BBC much freer rein to say, right, well, he's admitted it.

所以他被开除了。

So he's out the door.

这看起来像是你们迅速做出了决定，而事实也确实如此，但你们之所以能如此迅速，是因为当事人自己提供了帮助。

And it looks like you've made a really swift decision, and indeed you have, but you've been helped to do that by the person in the centre of it.

而我们知道，在其他情况下，人们否认自己有任何不当行为，持续了数周甚至数月。

Whereas we know that in other cases, people denied for weeks and months that they had done anything wrong.

或者被停职但仍领取全额工资相当长一段时间。

Or were suspended on full pay for quite a long time.

没错，正是如此。

Well, exactly right.

另外，这算是一个旁支话题，但似乎本周我们大楼里可能会有三位总干事。

Also, is a bit of a sidebar issue, but it seems at one point we might have three director generals in the building this week.

确实如此。

Well, it's true.

所以，马特·布里顿，这位新来的谷歌高管、新任总干事，他从谷歌来此之前短暂休了个假——实际上比一年还长——今天有人在这里看到他了。

So Matt Britton, the new Google executive, the new director general who's come from Google after a little mini gap year, actually a bit longer than a year, he has been spotted here today.

有人在食堂看到他了。

He was spotted in the canteen.

据我所知，有人看到他站在中庭边俯身向下张望，他确实来过这里。

He was, I'm told, spotted leaning over the atrium looking down, and he he's definitely been here.

所以他从这周开始在这里了。

So he's here starting this week.

在马特·布里顿完成入职流程、参加所有会议并注册所有电脑系统期间，暂时担任代理总干事的是罗德里·塔弗恩·戴维斯。

The actual person who is going to be acting director general for a bit while Matt Britton gets his onboarding done and all the meetings he has to do and signs up to all computer systems and everything, He's called Rodri Tavern Davis.

他显然是代理总干事。

And he's clearly a you know, he's so he's acting director general.

而蒂姆·戴维直到周四之前都是现任总干事，即将离任的总干事。

And then Tim Davy, until Thursday, is the actual director general, the outgoing director general.

我觉得我不确定蒂姆今天有没有来。

And I think I'm not sure Tim was here today.

不知道。

Don't know.

但我确实知道他周三和周四都在这里。

But I do know that he's here on Wednesday and Thursday.

而且我想，我们有三位总干事这件事挺有意思的，因为它让人不禁思考：到底是谁做出了最终决定？

And I suppose the fact that we've got three DGs is interesting because it makes you think, well, who actually made the ultimate decision here?

因为我们收到的确认此事的旧员工邮件是由代理总干事罗杰·特尔凡·戴维斯发出的。

Because the old staff email we got confirming it to everybody was from Roger Telfan Davis, who's the acting director general.

没错，正是如此。

Well, exactly right.

但我也不知道答案。

And I don't know the answer to that.

但我想，如果你是蒂姆·戴维，在你离职前的最后一周，你本想庆祝自己的成就，回顾过往，准备离开，你还会愿意让自己的名字出现在你任内爆发的最新BBC丑闻上吗？

But I do think that if you were Tim Davy in your last week, when you want to be celebrating your triumphs and thinking about that and heading out the door, do you want to have your name against the latest BBC scandal to break on your watch?

所以我不知道答案。

So I don't know the answer.

但发出了后续邮件给员工的是罗德里克·哈万·戴维斯。

But Roderick Havan Davies is the one who sent out a later email to staff.

我们还没有听到蒂姆·戴维斯对这件事的任何回应。

We haven't heard anything from Tim Davy about this story.

实际上，蒂姆·戴维斯曾表示，他当初宣布离职的原因之一就是觉得自己已经没有足够的精力去应对另一场丑闻了。

And actually Tim Davy said one of the reasons he announced his departure in the first place was he wasn't really feeling he had enough gas in the tank to deal with another scandal.

嗯，确实如此，他

Well, exactly He

说这对他造成了很大的影响。

said it's taken a real toll on him.

是的，确实如此。

Yeah, he has.

这确实对他个人造成了很大影响。

It's definitely taken a personal toll on him.

我不确定，有些传言说他可能对自己的决定感到后悔。

And don't know, there've been some rumors that perhaps he regrets his decision.

我认为，像这样的事情可能进一步证实了现在离开是个好时机。

And I think perhaps having something like this probably reinforces it's a good time to leave.

提醒你实际上你并不想被迫面对这些不幸的局面。

A reminder that actually you don't want to have to preside over these sorts of unfortunate situations.

不过我认为，他和董事会主席萨米尔·沙阿都有充分的理由觉得，这恰恰说明他们的流程是有效的——能够迅速做出决定。

Although I do think, and with some justification, both he and the chairman of the board, Samir Shah, will feel that this is definitely a sign of their process is working, that you make a decision fast.

这正是我们在以往丑闻中一直批评他们的地方。

That's one of the things we've always criticised them for in the previous scandals.

做决定花了太长时间。

It takes so long to make a decision.

哦，让我们调查一下。

Oh, let's look into it.

让我们弄清楚。

Let's find out.

让我们再深入调查一下。

Let's investigate a bit more.

让我们检查一下我们的流程。

Let's check out our processes.

让我们这么做。

Let's do this.

让我们那样做。

Let's do that.

不。

No.

在这种情况下，做出决定，让他走人。

In this situation, make the decision and out he goes.

再谈谈斯科特·米尔斯在这栋楼以及许多其他BBC大楼的职业生涯，因为他在这里待了非常非常长的时间，从1998年开始。

And then just a word on Scott Mills' career in this building and many other BBC buildings, because he was here for a very, very long time, 1998.

是的。

Yeah.

所以他确实取得了非凡的成就。

So he is somebody who has really, really achieved brilliantly.

对吧？

Right?

他16岁时，实际上成为英国最年轻的电台主持人，当时他在汉普郡的一家叫Power FM的电台工作。

So age 16, he was actually the youngest radio presenter in The UK when he got a job on, I think it was called Power FM in Hampshire.

所以他最初是个青少年本地电台明星，后来进入BBC后，事业也发展得非常好。

So he's sort of like a teen local radio star who then, when he gets into the BBC, it does do really, really well.

在BBC第一电台，人们会记得他与名人一起做的那些恶作剧。

At Radio 1, people will remember those kind of pranks that he used to do with celebrities.

他让詹妮弗·安妮斯顿给他的朋友安排了一场噩梦般的采访。

He persuaded Jennifer Aniston to give his mate a sort of nightmare interview.

他玩过双关语宾果游戏，据称威廉王子也喜欢这个游戏，他和朋友克里斯·斯塔克以及一位名人嘉宾一边嘴里含着水，一边猜双关语。

He played innuendo bingo, which he claimed Prince William was a fan of where him and his friend Chris Stark and a celebrity guest sort of play out innuendos while trying to keep their mouths full of water.

他就像一个受欢迎的普通人，显然BBC也很看重他，因为当BBC看重某人时，就会给他们更多角色并加以提拔，这算是一种……我不是说自相矛盾吧？

So he was a sort of popular peasant and clearly somebody that the BBC rated because when the BBC rates somebody, they try to give them higher, more roles and sort of promote them so that it's a sort of, I don't mean self defeating, do I?

一种自我实现的预言？

A self perpetuating prophecy?

不是。

No.

不管怎么说吧。

Whatever it is anyway.

就是那种自我实现的预言。

So it's the thing where Self fulfilling prophecy.

自我实现的。

Self fulfilling.

抱歉。

Sorry.

也许等到这场对话结束时，我的脑子就能转起来了。

Maybe I'll get my brain working by the end of this conversation.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

所以他开始主持欧洲歌唱大赛，并且多年一直担任这一角色。

So he got to present Eurovision and has done for for for years.

我认为他在2014年参加了《与星共舞》节目。

He was a competitor on Strictly Come Dancing, I think, in 2014.

在2024年，他和他现在的丈夫一起赢得了《名人环球竞速》冠军。

In 2024, he won celebrity race across the world with his now husband.

因此，他被广泛推到台前，出现在BBC各个频道、iPlayer等平台上，成为BBC的标志性人物，并赚取了可观的收入。

So he's been put out there or crossed BBC channels and iPlayer and whatever as a face of the BBC and he earned a substantial amount of money.

他表现得非常好。

And he did really well.

随后，当佐伊·贝尔回避时，他获得了BBC二台晨间节目的主持职位——这是全国最重要的晨间节目。

And then culminating in getting this breakfast show gig from when when Zoe Ball said she was gonna step down, this Radio two breakfast show, that, you know, biggest breakfast show in the country.

突然间，这一切就结束了。

Suddenly, like, that is over.

你周二还在播音，周三就被撤下，再也没出现过，就这样结束了。

You're on air on Tuesday, and then Wednesday, you're taken off air or you don't appear again, and then that's it.

到周末你就被解雇了。

You're sacked by the weekend.

所以BBC必须找新人来担任这个极高关注度的时段主持。

So the BBC will have to find a new person to front that very, very high profile slot.

加里·戴维斯过去几天一直在代班。

Gary Davis has been filling in for the last few days.

斯科特·米尔斯原本也要主持《环游世界》新一季的衍生播客。

Scott Mills was also gonna be hosting the spin off podcast of the new series of race across the world.

是吗？

Was he?

我不知道这件事。

Didn't know that.

流行资讯。

Pop info.

亚当·弗莱明。

Adam Fleming.

欧洲歌唱大赛即将来临。

And Eurovision is coming up.

所以需要一个新声音来主持部分欧洲歌唱大赛的转播。

So a a new voice to present some of the Eurovision coverage.

他通常会主持半决赛，对吧？

And then He usually does a semifinal, doesn't he?

是的。

Yeah.

和莱兰一起。

With Ryland.

然后我想，这可能取决于是否有更多信息曝光，或者我们在英国拥有的隐私保障——尤其是在人力资源方面——是否意味着人们可以提出很多问题，但可能没有太多答案。

And then I wonder well, I suppose it depends if more stuff emerges or whether the guarantees of people's privacy that we have in The UK, especially when it comes to HR, means that actually people can ask a lot of questions, but there might not be a lot of answers.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这才是关键。

I think that's the key thing.

对于BBC来说，这个丑闻是否已经得到控制？

And for the BBC, it's, has it contained the scandal?

就到此为止了吗？

Is this it?

不会再有更多信息曝光了。

Nothing more emerges.

他已经走了。

He's gone.

继续吧。

Move on.

我猜，他们希望事情能这样发展。

That would be I assume how they hope it plays out.

但如果不断有人冒出来，陆续爆料关于他的各种事情，那就会持续成为头条新闻，可能一直占据头版，这就是那种问题。

But if we get this sort of drip drip drip of people coming out of the woodwork and saying x y zed about him, then it becomes something that continues to lead the headlines and and and make make make the front pages potentially, and that that that sort of problem.

当然，斯科特·米尔斯在BBC工作时，领着大量执照费支付者的薪水。

And, of course, Scott Mills, when he was at the BBC, was paid a lot of license fee payers money as a salary.

根据最新的年度报告，他是BBC第十一高薪员工，年薪大约在35万到35.9万美元之间。

According to the last annual report, he's the BBC's eleventh biggest earner on around between 355,359 thousand $9.09 9.

这显然是公共服务方面的薪酬。

Now that's obviously the public service side of things.

在制作部门，他们不必公布员工的薪资数额。

On the studio side, they don't have to announce how much people earn.

商业部门。

The commercial arm.

没错。

Exactly.

至于商业部门，我们其实并不清楚人们的收入情况。

The commercial arm, we don't know really what people earn.

但在公共服务部门，他是第十一高收入者。

But but on the public service side, he is the eleventh biggest earner.

你有联系上斯科特·米尔斯或他的代表吗？

And have have you managed to get in touch with Scott Mills or Scott Mills' representatives?

没有。

Nope.

我们试过了。

We've tried.

我的意思是，我不清楚最新情况，毕竟我们联系过他的经纪人，也许在我为各个节目做剪辑期间听到过一些消息，但我认为我们并没有成功联系上斯科特·米尔斯。

I mean, I don't know what the latest is, obviously, because we've approached the agent and perhaps while I've been editing for various programs, we've heard, but I don't believe we have, and we certainly haven't managed to make contact with Scott Mills.

明白了。

Right.

凯蒂，非常感谢。

Katie, thank you very much.

谢谢，亚当。

Thanks, Adam.

现在让我们更新一下美国和以色列对伊朗的战争情况，而这种更新通常通过唐纳德·特朗普在Truth Social上的发帖来传达。

Let's get an update now on The US and Israeli war against Iran, and it's often the way the update comes Donald Trump posting on Truth Social.

他在周一早上发布的帖子大致分为两部分。

And the post he put there on Monday morning is kind of in two bits.

第一部分是他吹捧外交进程，称德黑兰新且更理性的政权正在展开严肃对话，显然他认为自己在那里实现了某种程度的政权更迭。

The first bit is him talking up the diplomatic process, and he says there's serious discussions underway with a new and more reasonable regime in Tehran, so he obviously feels he's achieved something a bit like regime change there.

但第二部分是他加大军事压力，基本上是在威胁：如果得不到他想要的结果，就要炸毁发电厂、油井和哈尔格岛——这是伊朗石油出口基础设施的关键部分。

But the second part is him ramping up the pressure militarily, and basically, if saying if he doesn't get what he wants, threatening to blow up electric generating plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, which is a crucial bit of Iran's oil exporting infrastructure.

所以让我们把一些线索串联起来，试着理清背后可能正在发生的事情。

So let's join some of the dots and try and unthread some of the threads about what might be going on.

现在与我一同在演播室的是BBC外交记者詹姆斯·兰代尔，他刚结束旅行归来。

Joining me here in the studio, returning from his travels, is the BBC diplomatic correspondent, James Landale.

你好，詹姆斯。

Hello, James.

你好，亚当。

Hello, Adam.

你从乌克兰回来多久了？

How long have you been back from Ukraine?

感觉像一个月了，但实际上才一周左右。

Well, it feels like a month, but it's actually only a week or so.

嗯。

Mhmm.

当你身处乌克兰，正身处一场战争之中时，你还能同时关注另一场战争吗？

And when you're in Ukraine, kind of in the midst of one war, are you able to keep across another war at the same time?

这又是怎么运作的？

How does it work?

实际上，我在那里待得越久，就越意识到这两场冲突正在相互交织。

Actually, the the longer I was there, the more I realized that these two conflicts were bleeding into one another.

我的意思是，当然，乌克兰和欧洲方面会强烈主张这两场战争是相互关联的，实际上伊朗和俄罗斯之间确实存在联系。

Not I mean, you know, not in a way that from a sort of clearly, the Ukrainians and the Europeans would be making a strong argument that they are part of a broader war, that actually there are link linkages between Iran and Russia, obviously.

但真正令人着迷的是观察乌克兰及其政府对此作出的反应。

But actually just it's been fascinating to watch Ukraine and the government there responds to this.

你知道，意见不一，而且担心被忽视。

You know, mixed opinion, you know, fearful of being ignored.

嗯。

Mhmm.

乌克兰会不会变成一场被遗忘的战争？

You know, the is Ukraine gonna become a forgotten war?

我们也在努力为世界其他地区提供帮助。

We're also trying to be helpful to the rest of the world.

但正如你所说，乌克兰现在也在努力成为有战略眼光的行动者，主动提供建议，讲述他们如何应对海湾地区的问题，以及建立新关系的复杂性——毕竟，如果你想想乌克兰和海湾地区之间的文化差异，就会发现要跨越这些文化障碍并不容易。

But also now, as you say, trying to be helpful and learning to be strategic actor in their own right, offering advice, how they do that, the complications of of dealing with The Gulf, new relationships, which because the if you think the culture between Ukraine and and The Gulf, you know, that there's an awful lot of cultural hurdles to get over them.

因此，观察这一切真的非常有趣。

So it's been fascinating to watch that.

上周我在《新闻播报》节目中与我们的前同事斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯交谈时，发现她谈到乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施的袭击次数显著增加，因为俄罗斯显然从这场冲突中获益。

And it was really interesting speaking to Stephanie Flanders, our old colleague last week on Newscast, when she was talking about the increased level of strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure because, of course, Russia is benefiting from the conflicts.

而且作为

And as

因此，乌克兰现在面临压力，要减少部分袭击，因为一些国家担心油价上涨。

a and as a result, Ukraine is now coming under pressure to reduce some of those, strikes because from countries that are worried about the the rising price of oil.

所以，是的，这一切都相互关联。

So, yeah, it it everything flows into everything in this.

今天加入我们的是《经济学人》的防务编辑沙尚克·乔希。

Also joining us today, defense editor of The Economist, Shashank Joshi.

你好，沙尚克。

Hello, Shashank.

你好。

Hello.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

谢谢您邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

我看到詹姆斯的两场战争，而我经历了三场。

I I see James' two wars, and I raised him three.

我关注的是乌克兰。

I've got I've got Ukraine.

我关注伊朗，当然，我还在留意一个没人谈论的地区，那就是位于伊朗以东的阿富汗-巴基斯坦战争。

I've got, Iran, of course, and I'm also keeping an eye on the bit that no one's talking about, which is the Afghanistan Pakistan war taking place just to the east of Iran.

因此，我们不幸地正处于一个巨大动荡的时期。

So, we're unfortunately in a time of, great turmoil.

你知道吗？

Do you know what?

我们稍后可能会请你对第三个话题做一点补充，但让我们先聚焦于海湾地区。

We might get a little sidebar from you on that third one a bit later on in this episode, but let's zoom in on the on the gulf then.

Shashank，这个周末我一直在听一个地名。

Shashank, I I've just been hearing one place name all weekend.

它位于波斯湾，名叫哈尔克岛。

It's an island in the Persian Gulf, and it's called Kharg Island.

为什么它突然变得如此重要？

Why has that suddenly become so important?

这很有趣，因为哈尔克岛一直非常重要。

Well, it's interesting because Kharg Island has always been really important.

它承担了伊朗约90%的石油出口，是石油外运的终端和枢纽。

It's responsible for about 90% of Iran's oil exports, as a terminal and a hub for for getting them out.

这一点已经发生了一些变化。

That's changed a little bit.

我们可以详细聊聊。

We can go to the details.

但事实上，由于这个原因，它对伊朗一直至关重要。

But actually, it's always been very important to Iran for that reason.

因此，它在军事历史上几乎就像东欧那些反复被入侵的地区一样。

And so it's always been it's almost like one of those places in military history, like the bits of Eastern Europe that gets crisscrossed with invasions again and again.

萨达姆·侯赛因在八十年代袭击并轰炸了它。

It was attacked by Saddam Hussein, bombed in the eighties.

吉米·卡特在伊朗人质危机后曾考虑过入侵并占领它。

Jimmy Carter considered invading and occupying it after the Iranian hostage crisis.

你记得的。

You'll remember.

罗纳德·里根在八十年代波斯湾 tanker 战争期间，当伊朗袭击油轮时，是否曾考虑过攻击并摧毁那里的石油设施？

Was Ronald Reagan considered attacking it and destroying oil facilities in the eighties over the tanker war when Iran was destroying tankers.

而现在，唐纳德·特朗普在已经实施制裁后表示，他可能考虑试图占领它。

And now Donald Trump, has said, having already bonded, that he may, consider trying to seize it.

因此，它再次成为中东冲突的焦点。

And so it's back at the forefront of these Middle Eastern conflicts.

詹姆斯，关于为什么唐纳德·特朗普会提出占领哈格岛的想法，或者实际去占领它，你的看法是什么？

And, James, what's our theory about why it would be in Donald Trump's interests either to raise the idea of taking Kharg Island or actually just taking it?

我的意思是，这是个非常好的问题，因为这并不像你想象的那么明显。

Well, I mean, it's a really good question because it's not as as obvious as you might think.

如果你看一下

If you look

因为这并不会自动重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，例如。

Because it doesn't automatically reopen the Strait Of Hormuz, for example.

是的。

No.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

公开的理由是，这座岛屿是伊朗政府和革命卫队（IRGC）的重要收入来源。

The overt reason is that because this island is is the source of a substantial amount of revenue for the Iranian government and the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

论点是，通过占领这座岛屿，你可以控制并切断政权及其战争机器的这一巨大收入来源，从而为美国赢得谈判筹码。

The argument is that by seizing this island, you then control and cut off this huge source of revenue for the regime and and its war machine, and you essentially gain a negotiating position for The United States.

筹码。

Leverage.

用来对德黑兰施加压力的筹码。

Leverage to try and say to the Tehran, right.

好的。

Okay.

你必须就结束战争达成协议，并且必须重新开放海峡。

You've gotta do a deal over over ending the war, and you've gotta reopen the strait.

这就是论点。

That's the thesis.

但让我印象深刻的是，唐纳德·特朗普上周末接受《金融时报》采访时谈论我们如何获得石油的方式。

But if you I was what struck me from the interview that Donald Trump did with the with the the Financial Times over the weekend was actually the way he was talking about that way we can get the oil.

而进行那次采访的《金融时报》记者对BBC表示，他从总统那里得到的印象是，总统心中最优先考虑的是委内瑞拉行动，那里显然能为美国带来某种能源和经济利益。

And the the the the journalist at the Feet who did that interview said on the BBC that that the impression that he got from the president was if uppermost in his mind was the Venezuela operation, where clearly there is a a sort of energy sort of economic benefit that The United States can get from that.

他究竟认为美国将如何从这件事中获得经济利益呢？嗯。

Quite how he thinks The US is going to benefit economically from this Mhmm.

这或许能让我们稍微了解他的一些其他动机。

Might give us a little insight into some of the other motivations that he's got.

是的。

Yeah.

因为当我第一次读他的Truth Social帖子时，我觉得没错，这确实是个施压点。

Because I thought on on first reading of his truth social post, I thought, yeah, it's the it's the leverage point.

这是一种威胁：如果你不在外交进程中按我的要求行事，军事行动就会升级。

It's the threat of if you don't do what I want in a diplomatic process, this is the the way the the military process will will escalate.

但事实上，他脑海中似乎更多是一种商业算计。

But, actually, it does seem that there's more of a kind of mercantile calculation in his going on in his mind.

我的意思是，还有其他选择。

I mean, there are other options as well.

我的意思是，你都知道，Shashank会告诉你，在军事行动中，出其不意通常被认为是好事，而这个岛屿显然没有任何出其不意可言。

I mean, you know, Shashank will tell you sort of, you know, surprises is often considered a good thing in military operations, and heaven knows there's no sense of surprise involving this particular island.

因此，如此广泛地讨论这件事，引发了一些猜测。

So the fact that so much has been talked about this has raised some speculation.

这会不会只是一场虚张声势？

There some, you know, is this just a bluff?

这里是否正在进行某种欺骗行动？

Is there some deception operation going on here?

这是否只是试图对对方施加压力的一种手段？

Is this some is this simply nothing more than attempt to put pressure on the arrange?

说白了。

Say, look.

你知道，未来可能会产生一些潜在成本。

You know, there are potential costs down the line.

因此，你现在谈判会更好。

Therefore, it'd be better for you to negotiate now.

但是，Shashank，如果这是唐纳德·特朗普的虚张声势，他却投入了大量精力来维持这个假象，因为他正派大量海军陆战队前往该地区，其中许多人已经抵达。

But, Shashank, if it is a bluff by Donald Trump, he's putting a lot of effort into sustaining the bluff because he's sending all these marines to the region, many of whom have arrived.

而海军陆战队正是你打算夺取岛屿时所需要的部队。

And marines are the the kind of troops you would want if you were gonna seize an island.

嗯，也不完全是。

Well, yes and no.

他派出了这些海军陆战队远征部队。

He's sending these marine expeditionary units.

其中一支已经从日本部署到该地区。

One of them is in the region already from Japan.

那是第三十一支。

That's the thirty first.

海军陆战队远征队。

MEU.

还有另一支叫做第十一海军陆战队远征队的部队，正从加利福尼亚赶来。

There's There's another one called the eleventh Marine Expeditionary Unit that's on its way from California.

我想那还得几周时间才能到达。

I think that's still a couple of weeks away.

当然，这些部队专为一件事而优化，也就是人们常说的‘抢滩登陆’。

And those, of course, are optimized for one thing, which is getting boots on beaches, as they say.

唯一的问题是，如果你真想夺取哈尔格岛，我不愿对特朗普先生提供未经请求的军事建议。

The only thing is if you were trying to seize Harg Island, and I don't wanna give unsolicited military advice to mister Trump.

我认为你不会选择从海滩发起进攻。

I don't think you'd do it from the beaches.