格雷厄姆·艾利森：与中国的战争？

这是iHeart广播播客《保证人性化》。

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.

Ego Woda将主持2026年iHeart播客奖在西南偏南的现场活动。

Ego Woda is your host for the twenty twenty six iHeartPodcast Awards live at South by Southwest.

喂？

Hello?

有人在吗？

Is anybody there?

由单亲妈妈抚养长大的Ego可能

Raised by a single mom, Ego may have

有一些与父亲相关的问题。

a few father related issues.

我们是要聊你的父亲吗？

Are we supposed to talk about your dad?

她的播客《谢谢爸爸》充满了与演员们的幽默而真挚的对话，包括其他《周六夜现场》的校友、喜剧演员、音乐人等，探讨生活以及他们与父亲之间复杂而精彩的关系。

Her podcast, thanks dad, is full of funny, heartfelt conversations with actors, including fellow SNL alums, comedians, musicians, and more about life and their wonderfully complicated relationships with their fathers.

我认为并希望这是件好事。

I think and hope that's a good thing.

了解埃戈。

Get to know Ego.

关注埃戈·沃达姆的播客《谢谢爸爸》，今天就通过免费的iHeartRadio应用开始收听吧。

Follow thanks dad with Ego Wodham and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

你知道罗尔德·达尔。

You know Roald Dahl.

他创造了威利·旺卡和《好心眼儿巨人》。

He thought of Willy Wonka and the BFG.

但你知道他曾是一名间谍吗？

But did you know he was a spy?

在新播客《罗尔德·达尔的秘密世界》中，我会告诉你这个故事，还有更多更多内容。

In the new podcast, the secret world of Roald Dahl, I'll tell you that story and much, much more.

什么？

What?

你大概也不会相信。

You probably won't believe it either.

这发生在你写他的故事之前吗？

Was this before you wrote his stories?

肯定是的。

It must have been.

好吧。

Okay.

我不认为这是真的。

I don't think that's true.

我跟你说真的。

I'm telling you.

我曾经是个间谍。

I was a spy.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何平台，收听《罗尔德·达尔的秘密世界》。

Listen to the secret world of Roald Dahl on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是阿曼达·科诺斯。

I'm Amanda Knox.

在新的播客《露西·莱特比案》中，我们深入剖析了2023年震惊英国的一场难以想象的悲剧。

And in the new podcast, The Case of Lucy Letby, we unpack the story of an unimaginable tragedy that gripped The UK in 2023.

但如果我们没有听到完整的故事呢？

But what if we didn't get the whole story?

证据已经被

The evidence has been made

人为编造了。

to fit.

当你看到整个

The moment you look at the whole

全貌时，这个案子就崩塌了。

picture, the case collapsed.

如果真相被我们选择相信的故事所掩盖了呢？

What if the truth was disguised by a story we chose to believe?

天啊。

Oh my god.

我觉得她可能是无辜的。

I think she might be innocent.

收听《疑点：露西·莱特比案》，可在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你常用的任何播客平台收听。

Listen to doubt, the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

今天我们有一期特别加长的节目。

We have a big bonus episode today.

这一期我将把主持权交给我们的好友布莱恩·戈德史密斯。

I'm handing over the reins for this one to mister Brian Goldsmith.

全靠你了，宝贝。

It is all you, baby.

那你都采访了谁？

So who did you talk to?

我采访了格雷厄姆·艾利森，他写了今年最出色的外交政策著作。

I talked to Graham Allison, who has written the foreign policy book of the year.

这一切都关乎美国与崛起的中国最终是否会走向战争，而这个话题并没有得到太多关注。

It's all about whether The US and a rising China are headed ultimately for war, which is a subject that hasn't gotten very much attention.

格雷厄姆曾担任过去七到八任美国国防部长的顾问。

Graham has been an adviser to the last seven or eight secretaries of defense.

他对核恐怖主义、朝鲜的挑战、特朗普政府与俄罗斯的关系都有深入了解。

He knows a lot about nuclear terrorism, about the North Korean challenge, about what's happening with the Trump administration and the Russians.

所以我们讨论了广泛的话题，我认为对外交政策感兴趣的人一定会非常喜欢这次对话。

So we covered a wide range of issues, and I think people who are interested in foreign policy are gonna really like this conversation.

我很期待听到，而且我觉得这恰逢其时。

I'm excited to hear it, and I think that it comes at a very important time.

顺便说一句，布莱恩，他听起来真是个聪明人。

He sounds like a real smarty pants, by the way, Brian.

但我非常期待听到他对总统最近出访、安格拉·默克尔所言（如你所提）、俄罗斯的局势，以及为何若特朗普竞选团队确实与俄罗斯勾结，这理应引发公愤的见解。

But I'm really excited to hear his take on the president's recent trip abroad, on some of the things that Angela Merkel has been saying, as you mentioned, what's going on with Russia, and kind of going deeper into why this should spark outrage if in fact the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians.

当然，还有朝鲜的紧张局势，他们发射了一枚导弹，落在了日本海。

And, of course, then a very tense situation in North Korea with them launching that missile that landed in the Sea Of Japan.

我的意思是，国际上发生了这么多事情，我很欢迎有人能以更聪明的视角，帮我更深入地理解这些纷繁复杂的现象。

I mean, there's so much going on internationally, and I welcome somebody smart to give me a deeper understanding and better perspective of all the things that are going on.

不用说，和格雷厄姆·艾利森就这些话题以及更多内容畅聊一番，简直让人兴奋不已，赶紧听一听吧。

Well, needless to say, could completely geek out with Graham Allison about all those topics and a lot more, so take a listen.

格雷厄姆·艾利森博士，我在肯尼迪学院的前教授，非常感谢您参加本期节目。

Doctor Graham Allison, my former professor at the Kennedy School, thank you so much for doing the show.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我怀着极大的兴趣和好奇心读了这本新书，因为它真正跳出了日常琐事，提出了一个宏大的问题：美国和中国是否注定会走向战争？

Well, I read this new book with great interest and fascination because it really steps back from the day to day and asks a really big question, which is, are The United States and China inevitably heading to war?

那么，这个问题的答案是什么？

And and what is what is the answer to that question?

嗯，我认为这正是那个价值六十四美元、六千四百亿甚至六万四千亿的问题。

Well, that's, I think, the $64 or $64,000,000,000,000 question.

我认为答案是：既是，又不是。

And I think the answer is yes and no.

如果这听起来太学术了的话。

And in case it seems too professorial.

我觉得

I think

这个答案并不令人满意。

That's not a very satisfying answer.

确实不太令人满意。

Not very

不够令人满意，但这是事实。

satisfying, but it's true.

在这种情况下，我认为照常行事很可能会导致历史重演。

So in this case, I believe business as usual will likely produce history as usual.

如果是这样，那将是一场中美之间的战争，对双方都将造成灾难性后果。

And in that case, that would be a war between China and The US that would be catastrophic for both.

这就是‘是’与‘否’的含义，正如那句俗话所说：那些不研究历史的人注定要重蹈覆辙。

That's the yes and no, is that, as the saying goes, only those who fail to study history are condemned to repeat it.

而在中美关系中，有足够的要素表明，华盛顿和北京的富有远见的领导人能够找到一种互利共处的方式。

And there are enough ingredients in the relationship to imagine that farsighted states craft, both in Washington and Beijing, could find a way to live together to mutual benefit.

说到从历史中学习，你在书中研究了过去五百年间十六次新兴强国威胁要取代现有超级大国的案例，你发现其中十二次最终导致了战争。

And speaking of learning from the past, you studied in this book 16 occasions in which over the past five hundred years, a rising power threatened to displace an existing superpower, and you found that in 12 of those cases, the result was war.

另外四次，双方避免了战争。

Four of those cases, the two parties avoided war.

那么，这之间的区别在哪里？

What were the distinctions between them?

这是个非常好的问题。

Well, great question.

在那十二次案例中，通常双方都屈从于新兴强国与统治强国之间常见的压力、误解和错误。

So in the 12 cases, normally, they succumb to the normal pressures and normal misunderstandings and normal mistakes of a rising power and a ruling power.

因此，新兴强国会认为：我现在更强大了，我的利益理应比过去弱小时获得更多重视。

So a rising power thinks I'm bigger, I'm stronger, my interests deserve more weight than they got when I was smaller and weaker.

我应该拥有更多发言权和影响力。

I deserve more say, more sway.

所以当一个新兴势力威胁到现有强国时，就会出现崛起国综合征和统治国心态。

So when an upstart threatens to an incumbent, you get a rising power syndrome and a ruling person.

统治国看到这种情况会说：等等，以前的状况很好。

The ruling power looks and says, wait a minute, the way things were were great.

那是你唯一有机会成长的环境。

They were the only circumstances which you got a chance to grow up.

你应该心怀感激。

You should be grateful.

你甚至应该帮助支持他们。

You should even help support them.

而你现在的行为看起来却具有威胁性。

And your actions now seem to be threatening.

这种动态正是失败案例中所看到的。

So that dynamic is the something you see in the cases of failure.

我认为最典型且与我们今天最相关的例子，就是导致第一次世界大战的局势。

And I would say the dramatic case of that and most relevant for us today is the circumstances that got us to World War one.

一方面就是这样。

That's on the one hand.

另一方面，正如你所说，那些战争被避免的情况又如何呢？

On the other hand, as you say, what about the cases in which war was averted?

一个非常有趣的案例是，美国在二十世纪初崛起，成为英国的竞争对手，最终超越了英国。

And a very interesting case, The US rose to rival and then ultimately, overtake Britain at the beginning of the twentieth century.

英国找到了一种适应和调整的方式，这种调整极其微妙和细致：一方面，他们保留了对英国至关重要的东西；另一方面，他们包容了美国和其他地区，以至于美国人逐渐意识到，我们的利益与英国大体一致。

Britain found a way to adapt and adjust that was so nuanced and subtle that they kept what was vital for Britain on the one hand, but they accommodated The US and other areas and so smoothly that Americans came to understand our interest is largely aligned with Britain.

因此，当第一次世界大战爆发时，美国成为英国的生命线，不仅在战争期间提供物资和资金，而且当美国最终参战时，我们自然成为了英国的盟友。

So then when World War one came, The US was Britain's lifeline, both with supplies and with money while the war was going on until when The US entered World War one, we naturally entered as Britain's ally.

而在两次世界大战之间，美英关系进一步加深。

And then between the wars, The US British relationship thickened.

当第二次世界大战爆发时，美国再次成为英国至关重要的盟友。

And then when World War two came, The US was again the essential ally for Britain.

因此，这是一个明智适应的绝佳案例。

So that was a great case of wise adaptation.

当你想到你刚才描述的美国和英国的例子时，英国在某种程度上是在管理自身的衰落。

When you think about the case you just described of The US and Britain, Britain was, in a sense, managing its own decline.

当美国崛起时，英国作为世界大国的地位正在衰退。

It was deteriorating as the great empire of the world as The US was coming up.

我想象许多美国人会拒绝这种比较，并对此感到非常不适。

And I'd imagine a lot of Americans would reject that comparison and would be made very uncomfortable by it.

因此，当你思考这两点时：一方面，美国与中国发生战争的可能性很大。

And so when you think about those two things, on the one hand, war with China more likely than not.

另一方面，许多美国人对和平应对我们相对于中国的衰落感到不安。

On the other hand, a lot of Americans not feeling comfortable with managing peacefully our decline vis a vis the Chinese.

我们是否正不可避免地走向一场重大的冲突？

Are are we just headed sort of inexorably toward a a big conflict there?

我认为修昔底德会说，一个不可阻挡的崛起中的中国，正与一个固守霸权的美国走向碰撞。

Well, I think Thucydides would say there's an unstoppable rising China on a collision course with an immovable ruling America.

这将是司空见惯的事，也是历史的常态。

That would be business as usual and history as usual.

但如果我们看看成功的案例，我的意思是，一个更积极的例子，或许在我们思考时更具吸引力，因为没有哪个案例是完全相同的。

But if we look at the cases of success, I mean, a more positive example that maybe is more appealing as we think about it and no case is exactly like the other.

但在冷战时期，美国面对的是迅速崛起的苏联。

But in the case of the Cold War, The US faced a surging Soviet Union.

当约翰·肯尼迪于1961年成为美国总统时，他和当时的主流观点都认为，到七十年代末，苏联将超越美国成为主导性经济体。

When John Kennedy became president of The US in 1961, he believed and conventional wisdom believed the Soviet Union was gonna overtake The US as the dominant economy by the end of the seventies.

再次强调，如今的人们甚至难以相信这一点，但那确实是当时的事实。

Again, history, people can't even believe that today but that was a fact.

你可以回溯到当时的经济学教科书，比如1964年的萨缪尔森教材。

You can go back and look at the economics textbook of the time, the Samuelson textbook in 1964.

书中写道：到七十年代末，苏联将超越美国。

It says, by the end of the seventies, Soviet Union will overtake The US.

这就是为什么分析人士永远不该做出这样的预测。

Which is why analysts should never make these predictions.

但我们必须生活在一个充满不确定性的世界里，即使我们无法确定，也必须抱有某种预期。

Well, but we have to live in a world where uncertain as we are, we have to have expectations.

因此，苏联无疑被视为对美国的生存威胁。

So for sure, the Soviet Union was thought of and appeared to be a existential threat to The US.

与其与苏联开战，人们想出了一个全新的疯狂主意。

Rather than having a war with the with the Soviet Union, people invented a whole new crazy idea.

冷战怎么样？

How about cold war?

所以，在我的专栏中，这涉及的是无战争，因为这里的战争只是一个隐喻。

So in my column, this figures into no war because war in this is only a metaphor.

冷战是一种在所有维度上、以所有手段进行的竞争，唯独不使用炸弹和子弹互相屠杀。

Cold war was, competition in every dimension by every means except bombs and bullets killing thousands of each other.

当然，我们也打过一些代理人战争。

And we had some proxy wars, obviously.

代理人战争。

Proxy wars.

我们曾暗中杀害过一些人。

We had covert killing of people.

我们有过经济战。

We had economic war.

我们有过宣传战。

We had propaganda war.

但我们没有用炸弹和子弹互相杀戮。

But we didn't have bombs and bullets killing each other.

因此，在这本书中，我说的战争是指成千上万人互相残杀。

And so I'm about, in this book, I mean by war I mean thousands of people killing each other.

这才是战争的含义。

That's what means war.

而在冷战的情况下，人们发明了一种极具想象力、非常灵活的策略，成功应对了这一威胁。

And in the case of the Cold War, people invented a strategy that was highly imaginative, very adaptable, but which coped with the threat successfully.

所以，如果我们试图思考当今的局面，我们不希望像英国那样处理美国的衰落，也不希望像对待苏联那样陷入冷战。

So I would say if we were trying to think about the situation today, we don't wanna manage The US decline like Britain and we don't want a cold war just like the Soviet Union.

这是一个完全不同的新情况。

This is a whole new different situation.

但从这些案例中，我们可以获得一些线索，也能从那些导致战争的错误中吸取教训。

But from each of these cases, we can get some clues, as well as from the mistakes that were made in the cases that led the war.

如果新策略想要成功，它将与当今所有常规对话一样截然不同，就像冷战与以往的对话那样不同。

The new strategy that would have to be created will be as strangely different, if it's gonna be successful, from all of the conventional conversation today as the Cold War was from the conversations previously.

这本书中最有力的段落之一，是你描述了中国正在变得多么庞大、多么强大。

And one of the most powerful passages in this book is when you describe just how big, how powerful China is becoming.

阅读这本书的众多理由之一，就是让你真正理解我们所谈论的这种爆炸性增长的规模。

And one of the many reasons to read this book is just to wrap your mind around the scale of blockbuster growth that we're talking about.

我的意思是，每两年，中国增长的增量就超过印度整个经济体的规模。

I mean, every two years, the increment of Chinese growth is greater than India's whole economy.

中国已经超越美国，成为经济强国，尤其在制造业和消费品领域。

China has already surpassed The US as an economic power, particularly in manufacturing and consumer goods.

它是全球最大的汽车制造商，这只是一个时间问题。

It's the largest automaker in the world, and it is only a matter of time.

中国成为主导性世界超级大国，只是时间早晚的问题。

It's a question of when, not if, China becomes the dominant world superpower.

我认为你的观点完全正确。

Well, I think that the your point is exactly right.

所以，除非一个人一直密切关注中国，即使如此，也很难理解一代人之间发生的变化。

So unless one's been watching China carefully, and maybe even if you have, it's hard to appreciate what's happened in a single generation.

在一代人的时间里，一个曾经在任何国际排行榜上都无影无踪的国家，已在各个领域跃居榜首。

So in a single generation, a country that didn't appear in any of the international league tables has leaped to the top in every arena.

历史上，从未有国家能在如此多的维度上如此迅速、如此大幅度地崛起。

We never never in history has a country risen so far, so fast on so many different dimensions.

事实上，在关于中国崛起的章节中，我引用了哈维尔的一句妙语：事情发生得太快，我们还没来得及感到惊讶。

In fact, in the chapter on the rise of China, I quote Vaclav Havel's good line in which he says, things have happened so fast we haven't yet had time to be astonished.

因此，在每一个领域，中国都无处不在，触目可及。

So everywhere in every arena, one sees China in our face.

到2040年，中国的规模将是美国的三倍，如果

And by 2040, three times the size of America's If

如果这一趋势持续下去，因为你可以算一算。

if the trend should continue because do the math.

中国人口是美国的四倍。

There's four times as many Chinese as there are Americans.

所以如果他们的人均生产率只有美国的四分之一，那么两个经济体的规模就相等了。

So if they're only one fourth as productive as Americans, the two economies are equal.

假设他们的生产率只有我们的一半，那又会怎样呢？

So they're not that suppose they're only half as good as we are, half as productive.

那样的话，他们的经济规模就是我们的两倍。

Well, then they're twice as big as we are.

对于美国人，尤其是像我这样热血的美国人，甚至粗犷的美国人——我来自北卡罗来纳州——我们知道USA意味着第一。

And for Americans and especially red blooded Americans like me, even red necked Americans, I'm from North Carolina, we know USA means number one.

我可以在这里脱掉我的衬衫，你会看到一个纹身，上面写着‘USA意味着第一’。

I can take off my my shirt here and you'll find a tattoo, you know, that says USA means number one.

这其实是真的。

So That's actually true.

不真实。

Not true.

是的

Yeah.

这是个笑话。

That's a joke.

但是但是如果你

But but but if you

那里有些突发新闻。

took some breaking news there.

但如果你剥开表皮，你会基本发现，大多数美国人，像我这样的一些人，一直相信我们一直都是第一。

But if you took the skin off, you would you would basically, Americans under believe, most Americans, some people like me, believe that we have been number one all our life.

世界就该是这个样子。

That's the way the world is supposed to be.

在圣经里、宪法里，或者自然法则中， somewhere 宣称美国是第一。

Somewhere in the bible or in the constitution or in the laws of nature, it says USA

意味着第一。

means number one.

书里说的是，很大程度上，这是因为我们拥有最大的经济体，因此能够资助军队、最大的情报机构和最大的外交机构。

Make in the book is that, you know, in large part, this is due to the fact that we have the biggest economy because then we can fund military, the biggest intelligence apparatus, the biggest diplomatic apparatus.

对外援助，最大的那些方面。

Foreign aid assistance, the biggest things.

没错。

Exactly.

并不是因为我们天生就更优秀。

It's not that we're inherently better.

所以如果另一个国家的经济规模是我们三倍，因而能调动三倍的资源来做这些事，我们还能保持第一吗？

And so if another country is three times the economy and they're therefore three times the resources to do this stuff, are we gonna be number one anymore?

大概不能了。

Probably not.

大概不能了。

Probably not.

我认为在书中，我给了你们一个简化版的图表，这是我在我哈佛课程中给学生展示的。

And I think in the in the book, I give you an abbreviated version of the chart I give to my students in my course at Harvard.

所以图表顶部写着：中国何时能成为第一？

So the the top of the chart says, when could China become number one?

我列出了26个指标。

And I give 26 indicators.

比如最大的汽车制造商、最大的手机制造商、最大的智能手机用户群体、最大的机器人生产商、最大的人工智能领域、最大的经济体。

So biggest auto manufacturers, you say, but biggest cell phone manufacturer, biggest smartphone user, biggest robot producer, biggest artificial intelligence, biggest economy.

哈佛课堂上的学生会说，哦，也许2040年会出现这种情况。

And students in the Harvard class say, oh, maybe twenty forty for this one.

我们让他们为这26个指标中的每一个都选一个年份。

We make them you know, pick a number for each one of the 26 indicators.

然后我展示第二张图表。

Then I have chart two.

第二张图表的顶部写着：已经发生。

And chart two, the top of which says already.

这26个指标中的每一个，中国都已经超越了美国。

So every one of these 26 indicators, China has overtaken The US.

但所有这些预测，所有这些未来的展望，都附带了一个星号注释，那就是‘如果当前趋势持续下去’。

But there's an asterisk attached to all of this, all of these projections in the future, which is if the present trends continue.

是的。

Right.

许多人对中国的威权主义及其治理模式持更悲观、更暗淡的看法。

And a lot of people take a darker, dimmer view of Chinese authoritarianism, of their governance model.

康多莉扎·赖斯刚出了一本关于民主的新书，她在书中指出，中国每年有18万起抗议活动。

Condie Rice just came out with a new book about democracy in which she notes that there are a 180,000 protests a year in China.

仍然没有可靠的法律体系。

There's still no reliable rule of law.

存在大规模没收民众资产的情况。

There's mass seizure of people's assets.

中国政府不得不雇佣超过一百万人仅仅是为了审查互联网。

They're they the Chinese government has to employ over a million people just to censor the Internet.

那么，这种经济开放但政治封闭的模式真的可持续吗？还是说随着时间的推移会出现一些动荡？

And so is this model of an open economy but a closed political system actually sustainable or is there gonna be some disruption over time?

这是个非常好的问题。

It's a great great question.

我认为关于中国的一个根本性问题在于其治理体系。

And I would say a fundamental question about China is their governance system.

我在书的结论中提到，关于美国的一个根本性问题在于我们的治理体系。

I say in the conclusion of the book, a fundamental question about The US as our governance system.

哦，不是的。

Oh, no.

我们完美无缺。

We're perfect.

我们都已经搞明白了。

We've got it all figured out.

没错。

Exactly.

一切都在顺利进行。

Things are just working fine.

所以，基本上，如果你在思考，你知道，目前两党之间可能达成怎样的可行妥协。

So, basically, if you're trying to think of, you know, what would be a conceivable accommodation between the two parties for the time being.

让我们暂且想象一下，在国际事务中存在成年人的监督。

Let's imagine that there were adult supervision for a second in international affairs.

当然，现实并非如此。

Of course, they're not.

我们生活在一个霍布斯式的世界里。

We we live in a Hobbesian world.

没有人能凌驾于习近平和特朗普之上。

There's nobody who's superior to Xi Jinping and Trump.

但让我们假设一下，在我的课堂上我知道，那才是一位真正的战略家。

But let's just imagine, hypothetically, I knew this in my class That's really a strategist.

他们的话。

Their word.

好的。

Okay.

所以，这里有一位来自火星的战略家，她是个成年人，她空降到马里拉戈参加她和特朗普的峰会。

So here's a Martian strategist who's an adult and she parachutes into Mari Lago for the summit between she and Trump.

她说：伙计们，我有几件事要提醒你们。

And she says, guys, I have a couple of things to point out to you.

首先，你们各自都面临着巨大且可能无法克服的问题。

First, each of you have large probably insurmountable problems.

这是第一点。

That's first.

其次，这些问题中最重要的那些，完全发生在你们各自的国境之内，而不是你们之间所谈论的那些问题。

Secondly, the most important of these problems occur entirely within your own border, not the problems you're talking about between the between the two of you.

所以我有个建议给你们。

So I have an idea for you.

你们为什么不像伯里克利在三十年和约中对斯巴达所做的那样，稍微休息一下呢？

Why don't you take a little breather like Pericles did with Sparta in the thirty year piece.

三十年和约基本上是说：我们为什么不各自专注于自己的问题三十年，然后再回来

The thirty year piece basically said, why don't we just each focus on our own problems for thirty years and then we'll get back to

试图互相杀死对方。

Trying to kill each other.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

因此，值得思考一下那些我们通常不愿面对的极端情况，在转向其他话题之前。

And so it's interesting, you know, to think the unthinkable yet again before we move on to other topics.

美中之间的战争会是什么样子？

What is a war between The US and China look like?

这两个核大国之间的战争，难道会是除了不可控、灾难性、双方数以百万计的人死亡之外的任何其他情况吗？

Is there a a war between these two nuclear powers that's anything but unmanageable, catastrophic, millions and millions of people dying on both sides?

再次，这是个很好的问题。

Again, great question.

任何认真研究过这个问题的人——包括美国国防部和中国的对应机构——都能看出，美中之间的全面战争对双方都将是一场灾难，没有人会赢。

So anybody who's looked at this carefully and the defense department and the Chinese counterpart have done, can see that a full scale war between The US and China would be catastrophic for both and nobody would win.

没有人想要战争。

Nobody wants war.

每个人都明白战争会是灾难性的。

Everybody understands a war would be catastrophic.

如果真是这样，战争怎么会发生呢？

So if that was the case, how could a war happen?

嗯，如果我们回顾以往的例子，战争的发生并不是因为有人想要战争，而是因为某个第三方的行动或事件像一根火柴，最终点燃了大火，让人们陷入他们并不想身处的境地。

Well, wars happen if we look at the previous cases, not because somebody wanted war, but because some third party action or event becomes a match that makes a fire at the end of which people are somewhere where they don't wanna be.

那么我们来看一下这种情况。

So let's take in this case.

我认为，今天美中之间爆发战争最可能的路径，是导致大量中国人和美国人互相杀戮的场景，那就是朝鲜。

So I'd say the most most likely path today to war between The US and China in which large numbers of Chinese and Americans are killing each North Korea.

过程就是这样，朝鲜。

Goes just like this, North Korea.

在未来几个月里，朝鲜要么进行洲际弹道导弹试验，使其具备用核武器打击洛杉矶的能力，这是一方面。

So North Korea will in the months ahead either conduct ICBM tests that will give it the capability to strike Los Angeles with a nuclear weapon, That's on the one hand.

或者它会被中断。

Or it will be interrupted.

这是另一方面。

That's on the other.

所以我曾将这种情况描述为一场缓慢进行的古巴导弹危机。

So I've written about this as a Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion.

所以，让我退一步说，这个情景是朝鲜拥有或证明其拥有用核弹头导弹打击洛杉矶的能力。

So so just to back up, the scenario is North Korea has the capability or proves that they have the capability to strike Los Angeles with a nuclear tipped missile.

特朗普决定打击朝鲜。

Trump decides to strike the North Koreans.

以阻止他们达到那个最终阶段。

To prevent them reaching that final point.

是的。

Yes.

朝鲜则回应称，将在首尔杀死一百多万平民，而他们今天就具备这种能力。

And North Korea responds by killing more than a million people in Seoul, South Korea, which they have the capability of doing today.

对。

Right.

然后美国和韩国对朝鲜宣战。

And then The US and South Korea declare war on North Korea.

对。

Right.

那么，之后多米诺骨牌会如何倒下？

And and where do the dominoes fall after that?

好吧。

Well, okay.

那么，情况就变得复杂了，因为如果我们攻击朝鲜，以确保它无法再次发动攻击，包括对韩国或日本使用核武器。

Then it's then the game becomes thick because if we if the if we attack North Korea in order to make sure it can't conduct another round of attack, including nuclear weapons against South Korea or against Japan.

但在这一过程中，这些武器中的一些可能会被发射出去。

Well, possibly some of those weapons get fired in the process.

因此，你现在甚至可能看到核武器在韩国或日本爆炸。

So now you could even have nuclear weapons exploding in South Korea or Japan.

正如科林·鲍威尔曾经对朝鲜方面所说，一旦有任何一枚核武器在美国盟友的领土上爆炸，我们将把整个朝鲜变成一块炭饼。

Whereupon as Colin Powell once said to the North Korean counterparts, he said, the moment a nuclear weapon explodes on the soil of any ally of The US, we're gonna turn the whole of North Korea into a charcoal biscuit.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以也许当情况变得太过分时，我们就干脆说：太过分了，直接把那里彻底摧毁。

So maybe when then we just simply say too much is too much, toast the whole place.

是的。

Yeah.

我们能做到。

We can do that.

对。

Yeah.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是一种可能，然后我们还得看看这会对中国人产生什么影响。

That would be one possibility and then we have to see how does that play with the Chinese.

我认为更有可能的情况是，我们将陷入一场在韩国的地面战争，韩国和美国将占领朝鲜并统一国家，除非中国参战。

The more likely possibility I think is that we'll end up with a ground war in South Korea in which the South Koreans and the Americans will otherwise capture North Korea and unify the country unless China enters the war.

但我们应该记住第一次朝鲜战争发生了什么。

But we should remember what happened in the first Korean War.

美国人在这里不太关注历史，但值得铭记。

Again, Americans don't do much history here, but it's worth to remember.

1950年，朝鲜进攻韩国，几乎占领了整个国家。

In 1950, North Korea attacked South Korea, almost captured the whole country.

美国在最后一刻赶来救援，将朝鲜军队推回半岛北部，逼近中朝边境。

US came to the rescue very last minute, pushed the North Koreans back up the peninsula, were approaching the Chinese border, the border between North Korea and and China.

中国突然出兵，令麦克阿瑟措手不及，将美军一路击退至三八线，战争就此结束，因为中国决心不让任何美国军事盟友驻扎在自己的边境。

The Chinese then out of the blue to the bedazzlement of MacArthur attacked and pushed beat the Americans right back down the peninsula to the 38th Parallel where the war ended because China was determined that no American military ally was gonna be on its border.

即使在1950年，中国的规模仅为美国的五十分之一，而美国却拥有核武器的垄断地位。

Even in 1950 when it was, you know, one fiftieth the size of The US, The US had a monopoly of nuclear weapons.

美国刚刚在二战结束时向广岛和长崎投下原子弹，而中国却依然对美国发动了攻击。

US had just finished World War two by dropping bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and that China attacked The US.

所以大多数人认为，中国不会容忍一个与美国结成军事同盟的统一朝鲜。

So most people believe that China would not tolerate a unified Korea that was a military ally of The US.

要防止这种情况，同时承认我们所处的世界并非完全理性——至少在朝鲜问题上是如此——最合理的方式是让中国阻止朝鲜获得核武器。

It seems like the rational way to prevent this and acknowledging we're not in a fully rational world here, at least in terms of the North Korea track, is to get the Chinese to prevent the North Koreans from going nuclear.

那是

That's

如果朝鲜不以核武器威胁我们的国家或我们的盟友，我们会接受现状。

We would accept the status quo if North Korea weren't threatening our country or our allies with nuclear weapons.

但问题是，中国能做到吗？他们会这么做吗？

But the question is, can the Chinese do that, and will the Chinese do that?

嗯，你这是在模仿特朗普的观点，我想大多数美国人也会这么想。

Well, you're you're channeling Trump, okay, and and I think in a way that most Americans would.

所以当大多数美国人听到这些时，我的意思是，我跟政府人员、学生或其他人聊过，他们都说：我不相信这种说法。

So when most Americans hear of this, I mean I've talked to you know people in the government as well as students or others, they say, I don't believe this okay.

一个贫穷弱小的国家怎么可能拥有核武器。

A little impoverished pipsqueak cannot have nuclear weapons.

我的意思是，没人会允许这种情况发生。

I mean nobody would allow that.

我说，但他们确实这么做了。

And I say, well, they they do.

美国情报界称，他们现在拥有大约25枚核武器。

The American intelligence community says they have an arsenal, twenty twenty five nuclear weapons now.

我的意思是，如果你只是不关注的话，这简直难以置信。

I mean, it is unbelievable if you were just, you know, not paying attention.

但这确实是一个事实。

But it but it's a fact.

但中国是否有能力或意愿去影响朝鲜，阻止其进一步推进核武器计划？

But do the Chinese have the capacity or the will to influence the North Koreans not to proceed any further with their weapons program?

嗯，是也不是。

Well, yes and no.

所以，是的。

So yes.

好的。

Okay.

中国掌控着对朝鲜的生命线。

So the Chinese control a lifeline for North Korea.

如果中国准备让朝鲜政权崩溃，他们完全可以做到，因为朝鲜85%的贸易和90%的能源都来自中国。

If the Chinese were prepared to collapse the North Korean regime, they could do so because 85% of the trade with North Korea goes to China and 90% of the energy.

维持平壤工厂、军队运转以及冬季供暖的所有石油都来自中国，如果中国决心切断这条生命线，就能对朝鲜施加巨大压力。

So the oil that keeps Ponyong's factories, their military, their heat in the winter, all of this comes from China and if they were prepared to squeeze that lifeline they could squeeze them.

那么接下来会发生什么？

Now what would then happen?

我曾经多次与中国方面坐下来模拟过这种情况，他们说：好吧，假设朝鲜真的崩溃了。

Is, I mean I've sat down with Chinese and gamed this several times and they say, okay so let's imagine the place collapses.

那么我们就会面临混乱，甚至内战。

Now we have a what chaos, a civil war.

韩国和你们会介入这种情况吗？

Are the South Koreans and you gonna get involved in this situation?

我说，韩国人不会眼睁睁看着他们的北方表亲挨饿而不伸出援手，他们会对这件事感兴趣，所以也许他们会稍微介入一下，但如果他们真的介入了，难道不会最终继承整个朝鲜半岛吗？

And I say, well, the South Koreans are not gonna let their cousins in North Korea starve without trying to be helpful to them and they're gonna have an interest in the matter and so well, maybe they'll get engaged a little bit but and then well, if they do, won't they end up inheriting the whole of Korea?

我认为这将是正常的情况。

I would say that would be the normal thing.

他们是一个非常成功且富裕的国家。

They're a very successful country and wealthy.

这些人却贫穷而悲惨。

These guys are poor and miserable.

你知道，要让朝鲜像东德那样重新整合起来需要很长时间，但我认为这很可能就是最终的结果。

You know, it'll take them a long time like East Germany to get the country back together but I think that's probably how it'll come out.

然后他们会说，那我们的边境上就会出现一个美国的军事盟友。

Well then they say, so there's gonna be a US military ally on our border.

而他们自己从1950年就一直对此心存恐惧。

And you have their own bugaboo from 1950.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是我们之前跟你开战的原因。

That's the reason why we went to war with you earlier.

你所描述的情景是，朝鲜人根本不会相信中国会真的施压他们，因为他们知道中国并不想在边境上有一个美国盟友。

And the scenario you're describing is that basically the North Koreans don't buy the idea that the Chinese would really squeeze them because they know that the Chinese don't wanna have an American ally on their border.

没错。

Absolutely.

因此，他们的影响力虽然纸上看起来很强，但现实中可能没那么大。

And therefore, their leverage, while impressive on paper, is maybe, you know, not so much in reality.

百分之百正确。

100100%.

当我们再次邀请格雷厄姆·艾利森时，我们将讨论美国能否做些什么来避免与中国开战，我们还会讨论其他一些外交政策问题。

So when we come back with Graham Allison, we're gonna talk about what, if anything, The United States can do to prevent a war with China, and we're also gonna talk about some other foreign policy issues.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

提醒一下，下周布赖恩和我将与演员兼喜剧演员马特·沃尔什对话。

Just a reminder next week, Brian and I will be talking with actor and comedian Matt Walsh.

你可能在HBO剧集《副总统》中见过他，他饰演新闻秘书迈克·麦克林托克，这是我最喜欢的剧集之一。

You probably know him as press secretary Mike McClintock on HBO's Veep, one of my favorite shows.

那么，关于马特的生活、职业生涯，以及他对于朱莉娅·路易斯-德瑞弗斯的真实看法，你有什么问题吗？

So what questions do you have about Matt's life, career, and how he really feels about Julia Louis Dreyfus?

请拨打(929) 224-4637给我们留言。

Call us and leave a message at (929) 224-4637.

(929) 224-4637。

(929) 224-4637.

嗨。

Hey.

我是《有目的》播客的主持人杰伊·沙蒂。

I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose Podcast.

我最新一期的嘉宾是歌手、演员、多白金唱片艺人希拉里·达夫。

My latest episode is with Hillary Duff, singer, actress, and multi platinum artist.

希拉里坦诚分享了她复杂的家庭关系、为人母的经历，以及时隔十多年后推出首张新专辑的故事。

Hillary opens up about complicated family dynamics, motherhood, and releasing her first record in over ten years.

我们谈论了在娱乐行业成长并贯穿每一个阶段保持谦逊所付出的努力。

We talk about what it's taken to grow up in the entertainment industry and stay grounded through every chapter.

这是一场关于身份、蜕变和构建真正有意义的人生的坦诚而真实的对话。

It's a raw and honest conversation about identity, evolution, and building a life that truly matters.

你理想中的家庭就像这张照片那样，但对很多人来说，这并不是现实。

You desire in family like this picture, and that's not reality a lot of the times for people.

我和我妹妹现在不说话了。

My sister and I don't speak.

这绝对是我的人生中非常痛苦的一部分，我希望这不是永久的，但目前就是这样。

It's definitely a very painful part of my life, and I hope it's not forever, but it's for right now.

请在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你常用的播客平台收听杰伊·谢蒂的《有目的》。

Listen to On Purpose with Jay Shetty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

你知道罗尔德·达尔吗？他是《查理和巧克力工厂》、《玛蒂尔达》和《吹梦巨人》的作者。

You know Roald Dahl, the writer who thought up Willy Wonka, Matilda, and the BFG.

但你知道他曾经也是一名间谍吗？

But did you know he was also a spy?

这发生在他还写故事之前吗？

Was this before he wrote his stories?

肯定是的。

It must have been.

我们的新播客系列《罗尔德·达尔的隐秘世界》，将带你踏上一段探索他非凡而充满争议的人生中隐藏篇章的奇妙旅程。

Our new podcast series, the secret world of Roald Dahl, is a wild journey through the hidden chapters of his extraordinary controversial life.

他的工作本质上就是勾引有权势的美国人的妻子。

His job was literally to seduce the wives of powerful Americans.

什么？

What?

而且他在这方面非常在行。

And he was really good at it.

你可能也不会相信。

You probably won't believe it either.

好吧。

Okay.

我不认为这是真的。

I don't think that's true.

我跟你说啊

I'm telling you

因为我曾经是个间谍。

because I was a spy.

你知道吗，达尔曾与罗斯福一家关系密切，跟哈里·杜鲁门一起玩扑克，还和一位国会议员有过长期婚外情？

Did you know Dahl got cozy with the Roosevelts, played poker with Harry Truman, and had a long affair with a congresswoman?

后来他把才华带到了好莱坞，与华特·迪士尼和阿尔弗雷德·希区柯克合作，之后还写了一部成功的007电影。

And then he took his talents to Hollywood where he worked alongside Walt Disney and Alfred Hitchcock before writing a hit James Bond film.

这位秘密特工是怎么变成史上最成功的儿童文学作家的？

How did this secret agent wind up as the most successful children's author ever?

他隐秘的过去中，有哪些黑暗元素渗透进了我们童年时读的故事里？

And what darkness from his covert past seeped into the stories we read as kids?

这个真实的故事比他写过的任何东西都离奇。

The true story is stranger than anything he ever wrote.