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我投资的十家公司里，有九家在中途都改了商业计划，因为市场变了。
Nine of the 10 company I invest, halfway they change their business plan because market have changed.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我更喜欢组建一个团队，而不是只靠一个人。
So I like to have entrepreneur as team, not just one person.
我在Cadence和Intel的时候就一直相信，首先要放低姿态，虚心倾听客户的需求。
I always believed in when I was at Cadence and also at Intel is first of all you crawl and be humble, listen to customer.
我的第一步是夯实财务基础，专注产品，简化产品线，认真听客户说什么，然后再推动下一代领导型产品的开发。
And then first step for me is to strengthen my balance sheet, focus on the products, and I really simplify the product, listen to the customer, and then drive the next generation leadership products.
现在，智能代理AI和相关CPU的需求急剧上升。
And then right now, the agentic AI and influence CPU become highly in demand.
所以某种程度上，我很欣慰。
And so in some way, I'm happy.
目前，我的CPU需求非常旺盛。
Right now, the demand is very high for my CPU.
其次，我很高兴我的老朋友黄仁勋也投资了50亿美元支持我。
Secondly, very happy that Jensen Huang, my all time friend, he also put 5,000,000,000 in investing and support me.
这50亿美元现在已经增长到了250亿美元。
This 5,000,000,000 become 25,000,000,000 now.
如果看十年后，哪家公司会成为赢家？
If you look at it ten years from now, what are we be the winning company?
就是那个...
The one that
大家好，听众朋友们。
Hi, listeners.
欢迎回到《NoPriers》。
Welcome back to NoPriers.
今天，我和埃尔德邀请到了传奇投资人、Walden的Lip Bu Tan，他曾任Cadence的CEO，现在是Intel的CEO。
Today, Elad and I are here with Lip Bu Tan, the legendary investor from Walden, then CEO of Cadence, now CEO of Intel.
我们聊了聊他如何推动Intel转型，美国政府成为大股东的意义，怎样做一名出色的半导体投资人，以及美国是否真能造出芯片。
We talk about his plan to transform Intel, having the US government as a major shareholder, how to be an amazing semiconductors investor, and whether or not we can make chips in The United States.
欢迎你，Lip Bu。
Welcome, Lip Bu.
Lip Bu，见到你真好。
Lip Bu, it's great to see you.
我们先来问个最直接的问题。
We'll start with the obvious question.
接手这家至关重要的美国半导体公司CEO职位，这工作可不容易。
This is a really hard job to go be CEO of this incredibly important American semis company.
那你为什么还要接这个职位呢？
Why take the job at all?
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
我今年66岁了，别人都说，你该退休了，何必去挑这个行业最难的担子呢？
I'm 66, and people thought, wow, you should retire rather than taking on this hardest job in the industry.
原因有几个。
And so a couple of reasons.
首先，这是一家标志性的公司，对半导体生态体系至关重要，对美国也同样关键。
One is this is an iconic company, and it's so important for the semiconductor ecosystem and also so important for United States.
所以我决定在离开凯登斯之后，再接下这一个挑战。
And so I decided to do one more after Cadence.
过去这一年发生了太多事。
A lot has happened in this past year.
对你来说，最意想不到的是什么？
What has been most surprising to you?
最让我意外的是，我之前从没经历过——有一天早上，特朗普总统突然要求我辞职，理由是利益冲突，而且没有任何例外。
Well, the most surprising that I don't learn from my previous job or even training is one day early morning, President Trump asking me to resign, and conflict of interest, and there's no exceptions.
所以我得先说服自己：其实，我根本不需要这份工作。
And so I had to convince myself, first of all, I don't need this job.
我做这一切，纯粹是为了拯救英特尔。
I do it purely to save Intel.
所以，先把个人情绪放一边。
And so take that personal issue out of the way.
于是我琢磨着，我能为英特尔做点什么？
Then I figure out, what can I do to be helpful to Intel?
好消息是，我周四早上有个会，然后下周一还有个会。
And so good news is I have a meeting, you know, Thursday morning, and then Monday, I have the meeting.
他认真听了我的解释，好像给了我一个说明的机会。
And then he listened to me like I have a chance to explain myself.
我出生在马来西亚，在新加坡长大，后来去麻省理工读书，现在住在美国。
Born in Malaysia, grown up in Singapore, went to MIT, and I live in US.
我从来没在其他国家长期生活过。
I never lived outside country.
我跟他说了这些，他听得特别认真。
And so something that I share, and that somehow he listened very well.
然后他给了我这个机会，我真的很高兴。
And then he gave me the chance, and so I'm delighted.
现在你终于有机会放手去干了。
And now you have the chance to do the work.
你刚才说，拯救英特尔是这份工作的目标。
When you said, you know, the job is to save Intel.
这是一家非常重要的公司。
It's a really important company.
在你看来，这会是怎样的情景？
What does that look like to you?
英特尔取得成功、蓬勃发展，会是什么样子？
What does Intel winning or thriving look like?
是的。
Yeah.
我刚满十四个月。
I just passed 14.
这十四个多月里发生了不少事。
A lot of things happened in this fourteen months.
我简单说几点。
So a couple of things.
首先，要改变企业文化，明确推动更强的责任感。
One is to change the culture and then clearly want to drive more accountability.
还有，在决策上必须更快一些。
And also in terms of decision making, had to be faster.
我习惯了初创公司的氛围，做事像光速一样快，可不能让一层又一层的会议拖慢节奏。
You know, I'm so used to startup culture, and you move fast in the speed of light and going to have that bureaucracy layer of layer of meeting.
所以我调整了责任机制，认真倾听客户，让客户真正满意。
And so something that I change accountability, listened to the customer, and the customer delighted.
像 Lip Bu 这样的人，特别谦逊，愿意听意见，直面问题，努力让客户惊喜。
Someone like Lip Bu so humble, willing to listen, and then address some of the problem that they face, and then try to delight the customer.
另外，从第一天起，我就决定所有工程师都直接向我汇报。
And also the other part, from day one, I decided all the engineers report to me.
我本身是工程师出身，想知道哪里出了问题，该怎么改进，听客户的声音，让他们满意，确保产品对路，简化产品线，明确未来五到十年的发展路线和愿景。
Being an engineer by training, I want to know what went wrong and what are the things that I need to correct, listen to the customer, and delight the customer, and then make sure that we have the right product, simplify our product line, and really have the road map and the vision for the next five, ten years.
你认为英特尔十年后应该是什么样子？
What is your vision of where Intel should be in ten years?
是的，我觉得有几件事。
Yeah, I think a couple of things.
首先，无论是在凯登斯还是英特尔，我一直相信，得先放低姿态，认真听客户的声音。
One, I always believed in when I was at Cadence and also at Intel is, first of all, you crawl and then be humble, listen to customer.
然后才能开始稳步前进。
And then secondly, you're starting to walk.
最后才能全速冲刺。
And then finally, you're starting to run-in sprint.
这就是我一贯的做事方式——一步一个脚印。
So that's kind of my culture of step by step doing it.
对我而言，第一步是改善公司的资产负债表。
And then first step for me is to strengthen my balance sheets.
说实话，资产负债表的情况一度很糟糕，现在总算有起色了，我很欣慰。
And the balance sheet is really horrible in some way, so I'm delighted.
美国政府成了大股东。
US government become a big shareholder.
我跟特朗普总统解释过，台积电一开始也是有台湾政府作为股东的。
Just I explained to president Trump, TSMC, they started, they have the Taiwan government as a shareholder.
你看日本，看新加坡，这些都是靠政府提供基础设施支持的。
If you look at Japan, look at Singapore, this is the infrastructure US government get to provide the support.
我很高兴的是，我的老朋友黄仁勋也投入了50亿美元来支持我，这让我觉得自己的努力总算没白费。
Secondly, very happy that Jensen Huang, my all time friend, he also put $5,000,000,000 in investing and support me, and I'm glad I at least do some good work.
他当初投的50亿美元，现在已经涨到了250亿美元甚至更多。
His $5,000,000,000 become $25,000,000,000 now and or more.
另外一部分是软银的孙正义。
And then the other part is Softbank Master.
我以前在软银董事会，他后来也出手帮了我一把。
I used to be at Softbank Board, and then he lent a hand to help me.
所以我们先改善了资产负债表，然后专心做产品。
So we strengthened the balance sheet and then focused on the products.
我把产品线大幅简化，认真听客户的声音，全力推动下一代领先产品的研发。
And I really simplified the product, listened to the customer, and then drive the next generation leadership products.
而且在某些方面，我真的很幸运。
And then in some ways, very lucky.
现在，智能代理AI和推理用的CPU需求大增。
Right now, the agentic AI and inference CPU become highly in demand.
以前训练用的CPU和GPU比例是1比8，现在我已经看到接近1比4，甚至1比1了，看到CPU重新变得重要，我特别高兴。
And so versus one to eight in the training CPU to GPU, now I can see one to four, maybe one to one, and I'm delighted CPU become important.
我跟一些AI模型和开发者聊过，他们说，在强化学习、协调多个智能体的速度方面，CPU其实表现更好。
I talked to some of the AI model and developer, and they said, well, in terms of reinforced learning, in terms of the speed of orchestrating all the agents, and turn up the CPU is actually is better.
所以某种程度上，我很欣慰。
And so in some way, I'm happy.
目前，我的CPU需求非常旺盛。
Right now, the demand is very high for my CPU.
所以总的来说，还是要继续深耕产品和数据中心服务器这一块。
So I think overall, build on the product, on the data center server side.
另外一部分就是我们的晶圆代工业务。
Then the other part is our foundry business.
一开始这可是个资本密集型行业，没那么容易。
And initially, this is a capital intensive business, and it's not easy.
你得具备好几项关键条件。
And you really need to have a couple of things.
你得拥有全套合适的知识产权，才能满足客户的需求。
You need to have all the right IP so that you can support the customer.
比如，如果是做移动设备相关的，你就必须有低功耗的IP组合。
Like for example, if it is mobile related, you've got to have low power IP set that you need to have.
没有这些，根本没法服务他们。
Without that, you cannot serve them.
这本质上是个服务行业。
It's a service business.
更是一个信任行业。
It's a trust business.
如果客户把晶圆订单交给你，结果良率上不去，那他们收入就会大幅受损。
If people want to give you orders to have wafer to come, if the yield not good, they will be close in terms of revenue miss.
所以，我特别看重良率、缺陷密度和周期时间，必须确保能高质量、稳定地满足客户需求。
So with that, I think it's very important to really focus on the yield, the defect density, the cycle time, and then make sure that you're really able to meet and serve the customer in high quality and reliable.
这些就是我真正关注的重点。
And so those are the things that I really focus on it.
最终，你必须走向全栈布局。
And eventually, you have to really move into a full stack.
不能只做芯片，还得有软件支持。
So not just a silicon, you need to have a software.
有些客户直接问我：能不能给我整套机架？
And some of the customer asked me, give me the whole rack.
这就意味着你得搭建完整的系统。
So there's a system that you have to build.
我觉得这些事都是在默默积累、一步步推进，同时尽量招到最顶尖的人才。
And so I think those are the things that are quietly building step by step and recruit some of the best talent I can find.
顺便说一句，所有招聘都是我亲自把关。
By the way, all the recruitment, I do it myself.
没有猎头帮忙。
No search firm helping.
所以我觉得，有个可靠的人脉网络很重要，知道该找谁联系。
And so I think sometimes it's good to have a rode deck that you know who to reach out to call for.
是的。
Yeah.
你在这个行业待了这么久，之前还担任过凯登CEO，我记得有十二年吧。
I mean, you've been in the business for so long and, you know, you've you've run Cadence for, I think, twelve years before this.
没错。
And so
十三年。
Thirteen years.
十三年。
Thirteen years.
不好意思。
Sorry.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
抱歉。
Sorry.
后来还多做了几年执行董事长。
Didn't more years as executive chairman.
所以一共十五年。
So fifteen years.
十五年。
Fifteen years.
我本来只打算干三个月，现在我得特别小心了。
So I signed up for three months Three months, so right now, I'd be very careful.
你一说‘我就干三个月’，结果一干就是十五年。
The moment you said, I'll just do it for three months, it turned out to be fifteen years.
是的。
Yeah.
看来你在这里也会有很长的任期。
Well, it seems like you have a lot of longevity ahead of you here as well.
另一个经常被提及的重要计划是Terafab，还有和埃隆·马斯克的合作。
And so the other big initiative that has been sort of talked about is Terafab and working with Elon Musk on that.
你能跟我们说说，这个合作是怎么促成的？你具体参与了哪些部分？你们是怎么协作的？
Can you tell us a bit more about how that came together and then your involvement and how you all are collaborating?
是的。
Yeah.
很好。
Good.
埃隆·马斯克，我想大家都同意，是这个世纪最出色的创业者之一。
I mean, Elon Musk, I think we all agree, is one of the best, if not the best, entrepreneur in this century.
我和他都认为，半导体基础设施的发展远远跟不上人工智能的增长速度。
He and I, we share the same view that semiconductor infrastructure actually is not catch up with the AI growth.
你需要产能，需要效率，还得不断提升生产力。
And in terms of you need the capacity, you need to have the productivity, and you have to drive efficiency.
所以，他和我都觉得，这方面还缺了点什么。
And so those are the things that he and I, we share that there's something missing.
其次，和他合作真的让人很开心，他做事特别不按常理出牌。
And then secondly, it's just delighted to work with him and he's very, I call it unconventional.
他总是会质疑每一个步骤，问为什么非得这么干。
And he basically questioned every step and why this traditional way of doing things.
某种程度上，这种做法特别让人耳目一新。
And in some ways, it's very refreshing.
我很欣赏这一点。
And I like that.
我喜欢那些有不同想法的人，大家一起合作，找到最好的路子，彼此都能学到很多。
You know, I like people who have different opinion, and let's work together, find what is the best route, and we both gonna learn a lot together.
我觉得他显然有个清晰的愿景——他的机器人和汽车都需要大量的芯片。
And then I think clearly he have a vision that his robots and his car, you know, he need a lot of silicon.
是的。
Yeah.
你能给不太了解的人解释一下Terafab是做什么的吗？
Could you actually explain what Terafab is for people who aren't familiar with it?
Terafab是他决定要自己建一座晶圆厂。
Terafab, he decided he want to build his own fab.
同时，我们也很高兴能和他合作，确保我们能支持他更快地投入生产，用上我们的技术和工艺。
And then meanwhile, we are delighted to work with him and then make sure that we can work together and enable him to be faster and quicker to the production and then using some of our technology and some of our process.
这是我们双方共同协作的一件事。
And that's something that we both kind of collaborate together.
他是我每周都一起合作的很棒的伙伴，和他共事让人耳目一新。
And he's a very good team that I work with weekly, and it's just refreshing to work with him.
他还提到一些想法，比如想在无尘室里抽烟，这类通常没人敢想的事。
And he's talked about things like he wants you to be able to smoke inside the clean room and all these things that normally The are bulgur.
睡着了。
Asleep.
我觉得我还没走到那一步。
Think I don't go that far.
也许清洁室的某些区域，是可以允许的。
Maybe some part of the clean room, you can do that.
但我认为关键是要保持开放的态度，我们会认真听，看看是否真的能做到。
But I think something that is an open mind, and then we'll also listen and see whether we can do that.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，
I mean,
看到你们在美国逐步拓展晶圆代工业务，还像与Terafab这样的公司合作，真的让人很振奋。
it's very exciting to see how you're morphing the business here in The US in terms of incrementally building out the Foundry business, in terms of collaborating with things like Terafab.
如果从全球人工智能和半导体供应链的角度来看，想想AI正在每个国家层面带来哪些宏观变化。
If you think about the global AI and semiconductor supply chain, so say that you were to look at the changes that AI is driving on a macro basis country by country.
如果我看一些国家，那些说AI导致大规模裁员的说法，其实现在大多被夸大了。
And if I look at certain countries, when I look at the layoffs that are claimed from AI, for example, most of them, I think, are overstated right now.
实际上，大部分裁员只是因为2020年疫情期间招人太多了。
Know, most of layoffs are actually just over hiring during 2020 COVID period.
疫情期间。
COVID period.
但最先被砍掉的往往是外包公司，因为公司更愿意削减外部人员而不是内部员工。
But the first things I see actually being cut are outsourced firms, where you'd rather cut external headcount versus internal.
所以你在削减外部客户支持。
So you're cutting external customer support.
你在削减外部IT服务。
You're cutting external IT.
这对一些拥有大量外包业务的国家影响更大，比如菲律宾、印度等等。
And that has more of an impact, I think, for certain countries which have big BPOs, The Philippines, India, etcetera.
因此，这些国家在短期内可能会受到人工智能的影响。
And so they may be impacted in the short run by AI.
如果要问企业该如何积极地参与人工智能的未来，那就得一个国家一个国家地来看了。
Then And if you ask how do companies participate in the future in a positive way in AI, you have to almost go country by country.
对吧？
Right?
能源便宜的地方会建数据中心。
Places with cheap energy will do data centers.
能训练模型的地方才会训练模型，但可能只有美国和一两个其他国家能做到。
Places with the ability to train models will train models, but it's probably only The US and one or two other places.
你觉得半导体行业的全球供应链会怎么变化？
How do you think about the the shift in global supply chain for the semiconductor industry?
某些国家是不是该加大投入？
Should certain countries invest more?
比如以色列，已经有美满科技、英伟达和英特尔在那里，是不是该在半导体领域多做点事？
Like, should Israel be doing more given, Melanox and Nvidia and Intel presence there, and should they try to do more in semiconductors?
菲律宾是不是该重新转向制造业？
Should other Should The Philippines move back to more of a manufacturing base?
你怎么看
How do
这个问题在全球范围内的影响？
you think about that on a global basis?
是的。
Yeah.
好问题。
Good question.
我觉得，显然人工智能正在改变整个格局。
So I think, clearly, the AI is changing the whole landscape.
而且它的影响会比互联网更大，也更深刻。
And I think the impact will be bigger than internet, and it's more profound also.
我认为，人工智能最初能帮助你更高效地完成事情。
So I think the AI initially is able to help you to do things more efficiently.
接着，有了大量智能代理帮你处理那些原本繁琐的工作，现在它们能更快地替你搞定。
And then with a lot of agent helping you to do things that is not kind of mundane that you need to do, but now they can give it to you faster.
所以某种程度上，它能大幅提升效率。
So in some way, I think it can drive a lot of efficiency.
就连半导体设计，也能在时序优化、研发速度和成本控制上带来巨大提升。
Even the semiconductor design, how much you can drive the efficiency in term of timing, how quickly can you come out, and secondly, the cost.
所以我觉得这些都能帮你推动这一点。
And so I think those will be helping you to drive that.
然后我觉得AI需求和增长还面临几个瓶颈。
And then I think couple of bottlenecks for the AI demand and growth.
一个是大家都清楚的电力限制问题。
One is, of course, everybody knows a power constraint.
有些国家根本就没那么多电可用。
Some country, the power, they just don't have that.
这就会造成影响。
It get impacted.
其次，很多人没意识到氦气对半导体行业的影响也可能非常大。
And then secondly, a lot of people didn't realize the helium impact can be also quite significant for semiconductor.
第三，现在大家都知道内存严重短缺，都在抢购内存。
And then thirdly, is everybody know right now memory is a bigger shortage, and everybody try to scramble for memory.
即使你打算建新工厂来提升产能，也得花上好几年才能完成。
And then even though you have to build a fab to capacity increase, it will take couple of years to do that.
CPU、GPU这些也都会面临巨大的需求。
And same thing for CPU, GPU, and all this will be highly demanded.
我觉得价格也会上涨，因为成本最终得转嫁给客户。
And I think also the pricing also go up because we have to pass the price, the cost to the customer.
所以我认为这些因素将直接影响整个行业的发展。
So I think those will be the impact, the industry growth.
总的来说，我觉得最受影响的公司，就是那些还没拥抱AI的公司。
And then I think overall, I felt that, you know, the company that most impacted is you are not embracing AI.
因为AI能大幅提升企业各个部门的效率。
And because AI can help you to drive a lot of efficiency across all the different function of the enterprise.
我们应当积极拥抱AI，找到更好的方式用它来做预测、做设计、优化各种工作负载。
We should embrace and also find a way to better use the AI for your prediction, for your design, for your, you know, all the different part of the workload.
我觉得这太重要了。
And I think that's tremendous.
不少人会说，反对Terafab、反对英特尔代工有竞争力的理由，其实归根结底是建厂涉及的各种因素。
A number of people would say the simplistic argument against Terafab, against Intel Foundry being competitive is really a question of, you know, there's all the factors in terms of the building.
对吧？
Right?
你讲的是知识产权和业务运转的速度。
You describe IP and velocity of just how you're doing business.
还有外部因素。
Then there are external factors.
埃拉德提到了好几项，其中一项是劳动力成本和制造能力。
And Elad's talking about a number of them, but one of them is the cost of labor and actually the manufacturing capacity.
投资晶圆厂业务，你显然相信存在一种可能，就是能在本土实现制造，埃隆也这么看。
You know, in investing in the foundry business, you obviously believe there's a version where you can manufacture domestically, and Elon does too.
你能谈谈这个吗？劳动力短缺这个制约到底有多现实？
Can you talk a little bit about that and how real that constraint is, the labor constraint?
没错。
Right.
所以当我决定是该加码晶圆厂业务，还是该退出时，我
So I think when I decided whether I should double down on foundry or should I get out of foundry, and I
而且市场上有很多声音，很多声音都在
And there's a lot of voices A lot of voices in
市场上，你也能看出来。
the marketplace, as you can tell.
这非常昂贵。
It's very expensive.
非常昂贵。
Very expensive.
肯定能行。
Gonna work.
我最后决定，这对美国非常重要，对整个行业也至关重要。
It's I finally decided this is very important for United States and also very important for the industry.
我们都经历过供应链带来的种种挑战，这对半导体行业的大公司来说，必须认真考虑供应链的问题。
And I'll give you the idea that we all live through these challenges of supply chain, and it's very important for any of the big company in semiconductor and really have to think about the supply chains.
你必须建立起一个稳健且有韧性的供应链。
And you have to have a robust and resilient supply chain.
你不能只依赖一两个位于不同地区的厂商。
You cannot just depend on one or two player in different geographical.
所以我认为，越来越多的人会意识到，在美国制造至关重要。
And so I think more and more people are going to realize making in The United States is critical.
至于最先进的制程，比如我们现在的14A相当于1.4纳米，我们已经开始规划1纳米和0.7纳米的工艺了。
And then the most advanced process, like for example, we have the 14A is like 1.4 nanometer, and we are already starting to plan for one nanometer and 0.7 nanometer.
芯片变得越来越小，简直细得跟头发丝一样。
It's getting smaller and smaller, So in a way, it's much like our hair, so thin.
这里面的复杂程度非常高。
So it's a lot of complexity.
做起来没那么简单。
It's not that easy to do.
每一个环节只要出一点错，前面所有努力就全白费了。
And every step, if you make a mistake that you just go down the drain.
所以制造过程中，你必须做到极度精准。
So in some way, you have to be really precise in that manufacturing.
所以某种程度上，这正变得越来越成为瓶颈。
So in some way, this has become more and more going to be the bottleneck.
因此，我们对台积电非常敬佩。
So we felt that we have a lot of respect for TSMC.
我们是很好的合作伙伴。
We are a great partner.
更重要的是，我们都得扩大产能，才能更好地服务客户。
And then more important, we both need to have more capacity to serve the customer.
所以我认为，从长远来看，这个方向至关重要。
And so I think we decided by the bullet, longer term, I think, is critical.
而这也正是我能为行业创造更多价值的地方。
And then that's where I can create more value for the industry.
人们早就一直在说，
People have been
总有一天会遇到一个极限，再没法把器件做得更小了。
talking for a long time about eventually hitting a point of resolution where you can't really miniaturize things further.
比如，线宽变得太小，没法再继续缩小了。
Like, the line width just gets too small to be able to keep going.
你觉得
When do you
我们什么时候会真正碰到那个极限？
think we actually hit that limit?
好问题。
Good question.
所以我觉得目前的情况是，我们有18A工艺，现在正在量产14A，接下来还能看到10纳米和7纳米。
So I think I can see, right now we have 18A, and then now going to production of 14A, I can see ten and seven.
所以我觉得这条技术路线我们是能走通的，但问题是，随着制程越来越先进，成本和难度都会越来越高，这就是为什么我们需要合作伙伴。
And so I think that path, I think we can get there, but couldn't it be more and more expensive and more difficult to do, and that's why we need partners.
我们不能单打独斗，必须跟代工厂、设备供应商紧密合作，这样才能真正提升良率和性能。
We cannot just do it ourselves alone, partner with a subscript vendor, partner with equipment vendors so that make sure that we can really drive those yield and performance.
没错。
Yeah.
另一个真正成为瓶颈的是封装技术，尤其是先进封装。
And then the other part also really become the bottleneck is packaging, the advanced packaging.
大家都知道台积电的CoWoS技术。
And so we all know about cohort by TSMC.
现在我们有一个更先进的方案，叫EMIB，属于下一代技术。
Now we have a really good one called EMIP tea that is really next generation.
我必须确保量产时的良率能达到客户的要求。
I had to make sure that you become able to do in the production yield that meet the customer requirement.
现在CMOS技术也开始像你所说的那样遇到瓶颈了。
And now CMOS starting to run out of steam like you described.
所以目前我也在关注一些新材料，重新回到材料本身和化学特性上。
So right now, I also look at some new materials, so it become, going back to the material size or the chemical table.
比如氮化镓、碳化硅和磷化铟。
So gallium nitride, silicon carbide, and indium phosphide.
这三种材料我都有投入，也在研究这些新材料到底该怎么真正推动起来。
So I invest in all three, and then looking at some of this new material, how can we really drive that?
在封装方面，我开始投资玻璃材料。
And then in terms of packaging, I starting to invest into glass.
玻璃是一种非常好的隔热材料。
Glass is a very good heat insulator.
所以我投资了一家叫3DGS的公司，后来发现英特尔的模块上有上千个图案。
So I invest a venture site called 3DGS, then I realized that Intel, we have like 1,000 pattern on the module.
那么，如何把基板和模块整合在一起？我们最近还宣布了一个大型项目，要在印度、美国和新墨西哥州生产。
So how the, you know, subscript and the module put it together, and then we just announced a big program with Indian government to manufacturing in in India, plus in US and New Mexico.
我觉得先进封装非常重要。
So I think this advanced packaging, very important.
我还在关注人造钻石，它也是一种极佳的绝缘材料。
I also starting to look at artificial diamond, and that's another very good insulator.
所以我投资了钻石晶圆厂，这将是下一代值得关注的方向。
So I also invest into diamond foundry, and that's something is a next generation to look at.
新材料、新型基板材料，再加上新的设计方法，才能真正推动这些进展。
So new material, new subscript material, and new design methodology to drive that.
当工程师的好处之一就是总会遇到瓶颈，但你总能找到办法翻过去，或者绕过去，最终达成更好的结果。
So one thing good about being an engineer is you're always hitting the wall, then you find a way to either jump over the wall or you work around the wall and then to get to the better result.
我长期以投资者和半导体从业者的身份，从EDA工具、设计到制造，一路走来都是这样。
And that's what I have been long time as an investor and building semiconductor from the EDA tool to design to manufacturing.
有这种经验其实挺好的。
It's kind of nice to have that experience.
现在我能帮着出点力，为这个行业做一点贡献。
Now I can help find a way to make a small contribution to the industry.
是的，这确实非常令人兴奋。
Yeah, and I mean, it's very exciting.
我问这个问题，也是因为你说得对，总有些问题能绕开，但到了七埃米这种物理极限，就真的开始遇到瓶颈了。
And one of the reasons I'm asking about it as well is, to your point, there's always some things that you can vent around, but there are also physical limits where once you hit seven angstroms or whatever the limitation is, you start to run into
新材料。
New material.
没错。
Yeah.
你需要
You need to
找到新材料，或者想其他办法。
find new materials or find other workarounds.
接下来有个有趣的问题，我们其实已经讨论很久了。
And then the interesting question is, and we've been talking about this for a long time.
我记得二十年前，大家就在说，总有一天我们会遇到空间瓶颈，那时候会不会出现一种情况，让不同代工厂的性能都趋于稳定？
I remember twenty years ago, people were talking about how we'd eventually hit a point where we ran out of space on this, is do you run into some sort of asymptote that actually normalizes performance across different foundries or not?
是的，这问题问得好。
Yeah, good question.
说到摩尔定律，你说性能翻倍，那
In terms of Moore's law, you say double and then
功耗和成本呢？
the power and the cost.
性能可以翻倍，但成本和面积没法跟着翻倍。
And then you can double the performance, but you cannot double down on the cost area.
所以这些方面你都得让步，除非你能找到新的材料方案，
So those are the things you have to give way unless you find some new way of material,
或者新的设计方法，
new way of design,
这已经涉及到材料科学了，所以我开始多招一些材料科学方面的人才。
that become material science, I starting to hire more people in the material science.
这算是我们领域里的一种创新了。
So that is kind of innovation in our area.
我们该怎么实现呢？
How can we do that?
我还记得十八年前，我就一直在投资半导体行业。
And I still remember eighteen years ago, and I I still investing in semiconductor.
当时很多风投公司，包括一些顶级的、我挺熟的机构，
And, actually, most of the VC firm, some of them are very nice tier one venture firm, a good friend of mine.
我第一次跟合伙人开会，满屋子的合伙人，等我一提到半导体，一半人就找借口溜了。
And I initially the partners meeting, the whole partners in the room, then after I'm talking about semiconductor, half make excuse to run out the room.
后来，另一半人终于说，这事儿有价值。
Then eventually, the other half, they said, valuable.
你们有软件服务吗？
Do you have any software service?
结果他们走了一大半，只剩下两个人还愿意认真听我说。
So then they even left with only two sympathetically listen to me.
所以，这整个局面已经不一样了。
So it's kind of the history have changed.
现在你看半导体，杰ensen的公司市值五千三百亿美元，博通和台积电都是两万亿美元级别，我朋友Lisa Su掌管的AMD也快八千亿美元了，我自己公司也快六千亿了。某种程度上，半导体又热起来了，而且变得不可或缺。十五年前、二十年前我投半导体的时候，没有风投愿意跟我一起投，只有三星、ARM、软银这些大公司愿意搭伙。
And now semiconductor, if you look at it, Jensen is a 5,300,000,000,000 market cap company, and then Broadcom and TSMC is 2,000,000,000,000 market cap company, and Lisa Su, my good friend at AMD, is almost $800,000,000,000 and I'm close to $600,000,000,000 So in some ways, kind of semiconductor become hot again, and it become essential because fifteen years, twenty years ago, when I invest in semiconductor, no VC want to join me except some of the big corporations like Samsung, you know, ARM and Softbank and others, and investing with me.
现在我看到越来越多风投想投半导体领域，我特别高兴。
And then now I'm starting to see a lot of VC like to come investing in semi, so I'm very happy.
考虑到
Given
这个曾经被认为太难涉足的领域，如今吸引了如此巨大的投资兴趣。
the enormous interest in investing in this area that used to be considered too hard.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Yes.
你觉得我是什么意思？你长期在Walden做风险投资，也做过实际运营。
What do you think I mean, you've been a venture investor with Walden for a very long time as well as an operator.
我简单列几个大家普遍担心的问题。
You know, the general fears I'm just gonna list a bunch of them.
大家普遍觉得这行资本投入太大，你告诉我我有没有漏掉什么。
The general fears have been it's very capital intensive, and you should tell me what I'm missing.
还有，芯片设计能不能顺利流片，结果很不确定。
It's very unpredictable in terms of, you know, shipping a design that works missing tape out.
你得非常清楚工作负载到底是什么。
And you need to understand the workload very well.
还有一个，就是客户换供应商的风险太高了。
I think there's another, which is just like it's very high risk for the customer to switch.
对吧？
Right?
你想啊，咱们一起投过的公司，明明拿下了设计订单，可接下来还得面对怎么扩大产能的问题。
Think, you know, we've been involved in companies together where, you know, there's a design win, and then there's still the question of like scaling order volume.
还有周期性的问题，你拼命建了生产线，但需求可能今年涨、明年跌，谁也说不准。
And then there's a cyclicality, right, of, you know, you build hard manufacturing capacity and demand may change or not in any given year.
你觉得，这个行业到底难在哪？另外，从多个领域冒出来的长期需求增长，你怎么看？
What is your view on how a bunch of, you know, what makes it hard as an industry and then the secular demand growth from a bunch of different areas, right?
你已经意识到，打造更多元的供应链有多重要。
So you have the recognition of how important a more diverse supply chain is.
再加上人工智能领域的需求正在爆发式增长。
And then you have this like explosive demand growth on the AI side.
你还是个投资人，却下了这辈子最大的赌注。
You're still an investor, and then you're making the biggest bet ever.
干脆，你去当CEO吧。
Like, go be CEO.
你是怎么看待这些不同风险的？又会怎么建议别人在这个供应链里投资呢？
How do you, like, think about these different risks and advise others about where to invest in this supply chain?
我知道这问题太大了，但结合你过去的经历，我觉得现在很多人都是孤注一掷，觉得内存短缺，赶紧买内存股。
I realize that's a very large question, but just given your history with it, I think there's a lot of like YOLO action of like, there's a memory shortage.
还有就是，大家都不愿意碰那些需要十年周期的领域，比如材料科学。
Buy memory stocks as well as just an unwillingness to take on things that have a ten year timeline, like material science.
说得对。
Good.
你问的问题覆盖面真广。
You have quite a broad range of questions.
让我试着解释一下。
Let me try to explain that.
首先，风险投资和初创企业已经融入我的血液了，我真的很喜欢这个领域。
So first of all, I think the venture capital startup is in my blood, and I really enjoy it.
所以现在不是吹嘘这个的时候。
And so I think this is not time to brag about it.
所以还是有不错的退出机会。
And so there's some good exit.
我手上还有159家IPO、126家MS和A轮项目，其中包含了半导体领域。
I still have 159 IPO, 126 ms and A, and that includes semiconductor.
单说半导体这一块，我这些年投了200家，38%在美国。
Just break down to semiconductor, I invest over the years 200, and 38% is in US.
所以我通常会看一些宏观层面的因素。
So what I usually look at some macro
这么说真是令人印象深刻。
Just to be clear, that's incredible.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我只是喜欢亲手把它做起来。
I just enjoy building it.
但更重要的是，从投资角度看，我首先会问：瓶颈在哪里？
But more important, I look at this, first of all, on the investment side, I always look at where is the bottleneck?
你们想解决什么问题？
What are you trying to solve?
比如，我投资了一家叫Cradle Semiconductor的公司，总部在澳大利亚。
For example, I invest in a company called Cradle Semiconductor, Australia Lab.
这个互连技术会不会成为瓶颈？
Is this interconnect become the bottleneck?
所以我决定投资Cradle，同时也投了Celestial AI，专注光子领域。
So I decided to back and also back Celestial AI in the optical side.
因为互连和集群的速度越来越关键，我觉得光子技术变得非常重要。
And then because speed become more important in the interconnect, in the cluster, so I think optical become very important.
你看看詹森。
Look at Jensen.
他投资的几乎都是光子相关的公司。
He invest in almost every company is photonic related.
另外我关注的是，到底需要什么样的解决方案。
And then the other part I'm looking at is, okay, what are the solution that need?
比如说，我们谈到设计、复杂度和成本这些问题。
Like, for example, we talk about design and then the complexity and also the cost.
能不能用人工智能和机器学习来推动更好的设计和更优的方案。
Can you find some using AI machine learning to drive a better design and better solution.
已经有几家新兴公司开始切入EDA领域，致力于提升性能。
So a couple of new startup actually go into the EDA related area to drive performance improvement.
我觉得这简直是个金矿。
I think it's a gold mine to do that.
再就是新材料方面。
And then the other part, you look at the new material.
我们提到的磷化铟就是其中之一。
We talk about this indium phosphide.
所以我才投资并收购了相关企业。
That's why I invested in and then bought it.
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然后你还会投资一些新材料，比如氮化镓和碳化硅，现在也有一些公司开始被收购了，其中一家专门做电源管理，ADI有个产品叫mPower。
And then you invest into some of the new material, gallium nitride and the silicon carbide, and then some of the companies starting to being acquired, include one of them doing power management, and ADI is a sport called mPower.
所以 again，这个电源管理领域，现在成了瓶颈，特别是在把40伏降到1伏的过程中。
And so again, this IVR, that's a very, very good area in power management become bottleneck now in term of converting from 40 volt down to one volt.
而在这个转换过程中，能量损耗非常大。
And then those in term of that conversion, you lost a lot of power.
那怎么通过提升电源效率来解决这个问题呢？
And how you do it through the power improvement?
我觉得电源和散热现在才是真正卡脖子的地方。
So I think power, thermal, those become the bottleneck.
所以我一直会问，我们到底想解决什么问题？
So I think I always look at from what is the problem we try to solve?
这个问题真实存在吗？
Is it real?
客户真的有这个需求吗？
Is customer crying for it?
然后我就开始投资了。
And then I starting to invest.
接下来，从第一天起，你就得瞄准第一个客户，这非常关键。
The next thing is look at it's very important from day one, you'd have to target the first customer.
我通常偏好那些超大规模的客户。
And usually, I like the customer is hyperscale.
他们有足够的体量。
They have the scale.
如果他们喜欢你的产品，未来几年愿意花数百万美元购买，甚至给点股权也值得，因为只要拿下一个大客户，就能快速扩张。
If they like what you have, they're willing to pay millions of dollars next few years, and even giving some warrant is worth it because you have a big one customer you can scale.
所以我总在琢磨，怎么做才能做到这一点？人才又该从哪儿找？
So I always look at some of the formula, how do you do that, and then where do you get the talent?
确实，找到合适的人才有时候特别重要。
And then, yeah, you know, sometimes it's very important to find the talent.
所以我对美国、硅谷、奥斯汀，还有以色列都很感兴趣。
That's why I'm really interested in US, and then Silicon Valley, and then some Austin, and then the other part is Israel.
那里人才很多。
A lot of talent.
所以我把相当大一部分投资都放在了以色列。
So I backed quite a significant amount of my investment in Israel.
因为那里的创业者特别有颠覆性和创新精神，而且特别拼。
And then because they have very disruptive, innovative entrepreneur, They work really hard.
即使在战争期间，他们照样开视频会议。
Even in this war time, they still have conference call.
有时候他们会说，好了，有警报了。
And sometimes they say, okay, there's a warning.
我得去地下避一避。
I have to go to underground.
网络可能不太稳定。
And then the internet may not be good.
那我们就干脆用语音通话吧。
Maybe we just use voice.
某种程度上，还挺有意思的。
In some ways, it's kind of fun.
这种坚韧的创业精神，我特别欣赏。
They're kind of resilient entrepreneurship I really enjoy.
总的来说，我觉得机会很多，尤其是在人工智能领域。
So I think all in all, I felt that there's a lot of opportunity, and especially in the AI.
现在除了智能代理型AI，你还要关注物理AI。
And right now, beside the agentic AI, now you're looking at physical AI.
这构成了一个全新的前沿领域，你得从全栈角度来思考。
It makes a mixed big frontier, And then you had to really look at a full stack.
所以我还在参与很多这类前沿技术，包括我投过的项目，因为我特别看好开源技术在物理AI方面的潜力。
That's why I'm still involved with a lot of this frontier model that we very familiar and some of the investment I've made because I really like open source frontier, you know, technology for physical AI.
我觉得这是一座金矿。
I think that's a gold mine.
你提到过，AI能让芯片的设计和测试变得更快速、更便宜、更有创意。
You mentioned the opportunity to make certain parts of the design and test of chips faster, cheaper, more creative with AI.
以你在凯登斯的经验来看，你觉得哪个领域最有潜力？
Given your Cadence experience, like, do you think is most fertile?
有没有哪些方向现在已经见效了？
Is there anything you think is already working?
是的。
Yeah.
我在凯登斯待了将近十五年，现在回想起来，真的特别开心。
I think, you know, for almost fifteen years with Cadence, and I'm so happy.
我最自豪的一件事，就是找到了继任者奥德伍德，亲自带他，后来他成了非常出色的首席执行官。
One of my highlight is able to find my successor, Underwood, and I train him, and he becomes super great CEO.
他真正拥抱了人工智能，推动智能体AI提升效率。
And then he really embracing the AI, driving the agentic AI to drive more efficient.
但也有不错的一面。
But there's a good part.
我觉得新思科技和Saran也在做类似的事，还拿到了英伟达二十亿美元的投资，帮他们做了不少事。
I think synopsis, Saran also tried to do that, and they have an investment from Nvidia, 2,000,000,000, I think helping him to do a lot.
他收购了Ensys，全面切入系统设计领域。
And he acquired Ensys to move into the whole system design.
总的来说，大公司都尽力做到了最好，但初创公司仍有空间做出更具颠覆性的东西。
So I think all in all, they all do the best thing they can, but also some opportunity for startup to do some of the more disruptive.
最终，它们要么上市，要么被这两家公司或者西门子收购。
And then eventually, they can either go public or being acquired by both of them or Siemens to acquire them.
我觉得机会对谁都存在，关键看创业者自己的愿景。
So I think there's opportunity for all, depending on what the entrepreneurial vision.
我一直坚持一个理念。
And then as long as I always have philosophy.
如果创业者想卖公司，有更快的退出路径，就没必要死守着不放。
If entrepreneur want to sell the company, and there's quicker way for exit, you don't have to lock up.
不用天天为季度财报操心。
You don't have to worry about quarter to quarter earning.
有些创业者从一开始
And then some entrepreneur, from day one,
他们想上市。
they want to go IPO.
作为投资人，我觉得我们六个人都是风投，我们支持创业者，支持他们的梦想，并帮助他们实现梦想。
For being a VC, I think three of you, with three of us, we all VC, we support the entrepreneur, their dream, and then help them to fulfill their dream.
没错。
Yeah.
如果你看看你提到的那些未来领域，比如产品开发，或者人工智能对半导体行业的影响，像Periodic这样的公司就在做材料方面的工作。
If you look at the different areas that you mentioned in terms of future, either product development or impact of AI on the semiconductor industry, there's companies like Periodic doing materials.
正如你所说，也有人在EDA、设计以及其他环节，贯穿整个制造链条上做事情。
There's, to your point, folks working on the EDA side and design and other aspects and sort of throughout the chain as manufacturing.
你觉得十年后，英特尔或者任何一家半导体公司，会因为人工智能而变得和今天截然不同吗？
Do you think that either Intel or a future semiconductor company ten years from now looks radically different from today, given AI?
如果会，会怎么不同？
And if so, how?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得是的。
I think so.
我觉得，首先，回到萨拉你提到的资本密集、有点不可预测且周期性强的问题。
I think, first of all, back to, Sarah, your question about capital intensive and a little bit unpredictable and cyclical.
所以你做投资决策时，得把这一点考虑进去。
So you have to kind of put that into factor into your decision making investment.
我通常喜欢很早介入，组建一支团队。
I usually like to go in very early, put a team together.
做这件事挺有意思的。
It's kind of fun to do that.
我觉得你也这么干。
I think you also do that.
其次，你要找一个能跟你真正合作的投资者。
And then secondly, you try to find the right investor that can co partner with you.
不是随便找个名气大的基金就行。
It's not just whatever the brand name firm.
我通常更看重个人。
I usually go for the individual.
关键是找到真正懂这个领域的人，能在顺境和逆境都陪你一起走的伙伴。
And then who are the individual that really knowledgeable in this space, you can The most important to find a partner to difficult time and good time.
很多时候，大家在公司顺风顺水时跟你合作挺愉快的。
A lot of the time people are very enjoyable working with you is a good time.
可一旦公司遇到困难，他们就转身走了。
When the company don't trouble, they just walk away.
我喜欢找那些经历过多家成功企业起伏的伙伴。
I like to have partner that really work through a lot of successful company.
他们经历过好几次快破产，但最后都挺过来了。
They have multiple time almost bankrupt that eventually take off.
所以我觉得，找一个愿意陪你扛过这些难关的伙伴很重要。
So I think it's important to find a partner willing to do that.
另外，还要看看哪些战略投资者能在制造、内存连接或其他方面真正帮上忙，为公司创造价值。
And then the other part is look at what are the strategic investor that can help you either in manufacturing or memory connectivity or various way to add value to the company.
我还有几个朋友在成长期的公司，也在对冲基金工作，我和他们相处得很开心，因为他们看问题的角度不一样。
And also have a couple of friends that are in the growth stage and also in the hedge fund, and I really enjoy them because they have a different perspective.
他们对公开市场很了解。
They know about the public market.
他们能提醒创业者哪些路别走。
They can guide the company entrepreneur where not to go.
这些帮助真的很有价值。
And so those can be very helpful.
总的来说，我觉得做这件事特别有意思，而且你会发现，创业公司的工程工作其实就是解决问题。
So I think all in all, I think it's just fun to do that, and then just realize is that engineering for startup is like problem solving.
每一步你都得找人来帮你解决手头的难题。
Each step of the way, you have to find people to help you to solve the problem.
一旦解决了，那就很好，接着去攻克下一个挑战。
And then if you trigger that, then great, next frontier to work on.
说实话，回头看看，我投的十家公司里，有九家在中途都改了商业计划，因为市场变了。
And then frankly speaking, I look back, nine of the 10 company I invest, halfway, they change their business plan because market have changed.
是的
Yeah.
所以我喜欢让创业者组成团队，而不是单打独斗。
So I like to have entrepreneur as team, not just one person.
其次，要保持开放的心态。
Secondly, open mind.
愿意倾听，也愿意接受我们的建议。
Willing to listen and listen to getting coaching from us.
最终，他们会形成自己的计划。
And then eventually, they formulate their own plan.
不是他们想怎么做就怎么做，而是你要给他们足够的反馈，让他们自己得出结论——这样他们做出的决定，往往正是你希望看到的，而且更符合实际。
It's not just do what they want, it's more they figure out, the best thing is you give them enough feedback, they draw their own conclusion that you exactly what you like and all different, that you can embrace is the right decision.
这才是做创业最有趣的地方。
That's kind of fun of doing startup.
他们的进步会快很多。
They get much faster.
所以回到你刚才的问题，十年后，什么样的公司会胜出呢？
So back to your question, if you look at it ten years from now, what will be the winning company?
这只是我个人的看法。
This is just my personal view.
能清晰定位在一个细分领域，找到合适的合作伙伴，并且有能力把公司做大的那个。
The one that articulate and laser focus on one niche area and also find the right partner and also able to scale the company.
这其实也回到我之前说的全栈问题，你需要一个完整的解决方案。
And so in some way, and back to my point about full stack, so in the way you need to have a full stack solution.
所以它可能是一家大公司，自己转型去打造一个大平台，比如黄仁勋，我很佩服他。
And so it can be a big company, they transform themselves to be looking at big platform, like Jensen, I admire him.
他专注做CUDA。
You know, he focused on CUDA.
他专注做Illipro。
He focused on Illipro.
他想做平台公司，而他确实做到了。
I want to be a platform company, and he did it.
所以某种程度上，你确实可以这么做。
And so in some way, you can do that.
或者像Entropic、OpenAI这样的初创公司，它们以更巧妙的方式实现了这一点。
Or startup company like Entropic, Open AI, they find a way to do it in a bit more elegant way.
它们重新定义了游戏规则，初创公司行动迅速，快如闪电，完全有可能成为主导者。
They change the game, and then the startup move fast, speed of light, you can really become a dominant player.
希望英特尔能扮演这个角色，因为我们有XPU，有先进封装，还有晶圆代工能力。
And hopefully Intel can play the role because we have the XPU, and we have the advanced packaging, and we have Foundry.
如果把这些资源整合起来，就能为不同工作负载打造专用的芯片。
If you put that all together, can build some of the purpose built silicon for different workload.
我想，这就是我的方向。
I think that's where I'm going.
对。
Yeah.
这很有道理。
That makes a lot of sense.
我其实想问的是，你接下来打算往哪个方向走，另外一点是，这会不会从根本上改变你们的工作方式？
And I guess part of the question I was wondering is where you're going, and then the other part is, does it fundamentally change how you work?
因为从软件行业来看，现在正发生一场巨大的变化，关于该招什么样的人，该让哪些人加入团队，特别是如何管理多个智能体。
Because when I look in the software world, I think there's a very big shift happening right now in terms of who you hire, in terms of who you think you want on board, in terms of people managing multiple agents.
我认识的很多人现在更倾向于招聘三四十岁甚至五十岁左右的人，因为他们有管理团队的经验。
And so many people now that I know are hiring people more in their thirties, forties, fifties because they're used to managing teams.
我觉得这种经验可以直接迁移到管理智能体上，毕竟你得理解怎么搭建系统、做质量把控，还有各种复杂的事情。
And I think that transfers directly over to managing agents in terms of understanding the complexity of what to set up and the QA and everything else.
我想知道，在物理世界或者晶圆厂的背景下，你觉得团队结构、能力要求，或者AI的介入，会有什么样的变化？
And I wonder in the context of the physical world or in the context of a FAB, how you think about shifts in terms of either a team structure or capabilities or how AI layers on.
所以我只是不确定，这到底是自然缓慢的演进，还是在某些领域会出现根本性的转变，比如材料方面，现在直接用几个AA模型加点化学知识就够了？
And so I just wasn't sure if it's a natural slow evolution or if there's areas where there's a radical shift where it's like, oh, for materials, now we should just use these 3AA models plus some chemistry or whatever it is.
所以我就很好奇这一点，
So that's why I was a little bit curious about
你怎么看
how you
想想未来会是什么样子。
think about the future world there.
问得好。
Good question.
我想回到那个循序渐进的过程：先爬，再走，然后跑。
I think as I back to that crawl, walk, and run.
在起步阶段，我主要招募半导体行业最顶尖的人才。
So I think crawl, you basically try to I recruit some of the best talent in the semiconductor industry.
现在我开始思考，需要引进哪些软件人才，才能搭建完整的全栈体系。
And then now I'm starting to look at what are the software talent I need to bring on board and in order to build a full stack.
现在我也注意到，我团队的平均年龄在四五十岁左右。
And now I'm starting to look at, you know, my average age of my team in the 40 40, 50.
我得引入一些新血。
I need to bring in some new talent.
他们得能理解工作负载，了解前沿模型和开源生态。
And then so they're understanding the workload, understanding the frontier model, open source.
对。
Mhmm.
这很重要。
That is important.
所以现在，我儿子反而成了我的老师。
So for now, then my son become my teacher now.
对。
Mhmm.
每次他邀请我去他家，我们都会和孙子孙女一起玩。
Every time he invite me to go to his house, we're playing to grandkids.
对。
Mhmm.
我开始向他请教人工智能和机器学习方面的知识。
I starting to tap on him on all the AI machine learning.
他比我更懂这些。
He's more plug in than me.
所以我学了很多，也开始理解投资，还把一些人才引进来。
So I learned a lot and then try to understand investing and then bring some of the talent to come in.
我们正在改变英特尔。
So we are changing Intel.
以前它就像一家靠老旧电子表格运作的公司。
Used to be a very old legacy spreadsheet company.
现在我把它转型成一家全面拥抱AI的公司，利用我们的设计和技术，让整个组织都用上AI。
Now I transform it to become AI enabled using some of our design and also across all the engine all the organization embracing AI.
这样一来，他们就不再那么依赖电子表格和人工标注了，而是把人才和最棒的AI工具结合起来，不只是用在我们公司内部，也不只是用在销售上。
And then so they become less less depend on the spreadsheet and label to do that, and you're gonna combine the two talent plus the best AI tool that I can use, not only for my organization, not only for my sales.
现在我不只关注市场营销，也开始把设计纳入进来，全面拥抱AI。
And then now I starting to look at not just marketing, and now the design, and then to embrace that.
我觉得很多投资者，至少对我而言，自从创办公司以来的这几年，一直在学习如何为资本密集型公司寻找不同的资金来源。
I think a lot of investors, you know, at least for me the last few years since I started a firm, it's been very educational thinking about the different capital sources for more capital intensive companies.
我以前主要做软件。
I did a lot of software before.
所以你得有观点和财务状况都截然不同的聪明朋友，不然你要是得先凑齐十五亿美元，才能让这事儿达到关键规模，那压力就太大了。
So your need to have smart friends with a very different stance and balance sheet was less if you're like, Ah, I need $150,000,000 before this thing gets to, you know, some critical mass.
你长期亲历过这种模式，还特别有经验，就是跟政府这种大股东打交道。
So you've lived that for a very long time, and then you have the unique experience of working with the government as a large stakeholder.
你觉得这种产业政策，怎么就能促成像台积电这样的巨大成功，它们可是全球最重要的公司之一？
How do you think this sort of industrial policy, it's led to huge successes like TSMC, right, the most important companies in the world.
但长期以来，这种做法在美国商业文化里其实不太受待见。
It's also been a bit frowned upon in American business culture for a long time.
那现在你觉得应该怎么转变？这种模式在哪些地方还特别重要？
Like, how do you think that should change now, or where is it relevant?
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
我觉得，对于资本密集型的业务和基础设施项目，确实得能拿到资金支持。
So I think, clearly, for capital intensive business and infrastructure play, you need to access the capital.
而且某种程度上，早期的风投现在也开始变得越来越资本密集了。
And then in some way, I think for our early day venture capital investment, now starting become very capital intensive.
在风险投资行业，有机构愿意投十亿美元给一家公司，这以前是很难想象的。
And some of the venture firm willing to put $1,000,000,000 into some company is very unheard of in the VC business.
但现在这种情况已经开始发生了。
Now it's happening.
所以某种程度上，我觉得这就像一条钟形曲线。
And so in some way, you just have to be I like this kind of bell curve.
你要么非常早期就进场，要么等到A轮，那时公司估值已经超过十亿美元了。
Either you go in very early, and then because you're starting to do the series A, it's over 1,000,000,000 valuations.
所以你得在天使轮、种子轮就进去，才能赶上这种两千零三十亿美元的估值。
And so you had to go in pre money, pre seed to go into that kind of $2,030,000,000,000 valuation.
目前这种机会非常少见。
It's very rare right now.
你只能抓住这样的机会，选对公司。
So you just have to do that and pick the right one.
另一部分则是找到资金来扩大规模，这也是为什么一些母基金愿意早早进入Pre-Market早期阶段，和我们一起投资。
And then the other part is able to find capital to scale, and that's why some of this mutual fund, they also like to move into the pre market early stage to join me to investing.
我让他们放心，因为我不需要非得占20%的股份——根本没多少20%可分，所以得找对投资人进来。
I delight them because they are very less sensitive of whether I had to own 20% of the There's not too many 20% to give, so you have to find the right investor to come in.
至于资本密集型领域，比如工厂里的AI和晶圆厂，真的得靠政府资金、主权基金，或者一些巨型资本的支持。
And then in term of the capital intensive, like AI in a factory and also the foundry, and then you really need to tap either government funding or some sovereign fund, and also some very big capital.
现在确实有大基金在做这类事，他们设立的基金本质上是为了支持基础设施建设。
There are some big fund that are doing that, and they're really The fund they've organized is basically support the infrastructure.
我们希望能接入这些资源，确保我们的业务能顺利扩张。
And we like to tap into some of them and then to make sure that they can scale our operation.
总的来说，政府和主权基金变得越来越重要。
So I think in overall, government sovereign fund become very important.
另外，作为一家上市公司，我也有意吸引那些更看重长期增长的投资人，让他们能帮我们把业务做大。
And also, as a public company, I also purposely want to focus on some of the investor that are more long term growth oriented and so that they can help me to grow the business.
而不是那些只关心短期资本运作的，比如你打算什么时候回购股票？
And then rather than short term asking capital location, you know, where do you gonna, you know, buy back your shares?
这些问题其实挺关键的。
Those are good question.
但与此同时，我也得把业务做起来。
But meanwhile, I also had to build the business.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得，这种平衡很重要。
And so I think it's kind of that balance is important.
你认为投资者目前对英特尔最大的误解是什么？
Do you think there is something that investors, like, most misunderstand about Intel at this moment?
有很多地方被误解了。
Quite a few things.
首先，回顾过去四个月，我们一直在爬行，但现在人们开始意识到它的潜力了。
First of all, I think back to this crawl, run, and walk, last four months, I crawled, but people are starting to recognize that potential of it.
所以另一部分同样关键。
And so the other part is very important.
我们必须推出真正出色的产品——无论是PC客户端，我们仍有市场份额，但必须大幅提升性能。
We need to really get the best product out, either PC client, we still have a market share, but we really need to really build better performance.
所以我正在悄悄地组建CPU架构、GPU架构和软件架构团队，为的是能实现跨越式发展。
So that's why I'm quietly building up the CPU architect, GPU architect, and the software architect so that we can leapfrog.
就像我看英特尔那样，我希望我们能像初创公司一样灵活高效，靠更先进的技术实现弯道超车。
Just like I look at Intel, I want to be a multiple of startup culture so that we move fast and we can leapfrog using better technology.
另外，除了产品之外，还有一些新兴领域正在崛起，比如自主型AI和物理AI。
And then the other part is beside the product, there are some new energy coming in, like agentic AI, the physical AI.
这里面有很多值得投入的方向。
There's a lot of area that we can invest.
市场潜力非常大。
Market is huge.
这是从产品角度来说的。
That's on the product side.
在晶圆制造方面，我们和台积电在性能上还有很大差距。
And the foundry side, we are very distant from TSMC and then in term of their performance.
所以我们必须保持谦逊，从我之前提到的那些基础环节入手——IP、良率、缺陷密度和周期时间，把这些做得更高效、更可靠。
So there's we have to be humble looking at building the building block that I mentioned earlier, the IP, the yield, the defect density, and the cycle time to make it more efficient and more reliable.
这本质上是信任的生意。
Is a trust business.
在客户把晶圆交给你之前，他们必须先信任你。
People want to trust you before they give you the wafer to count on you.
这些事情都需要更长的时间才能见效。
So those are the things will take longer time.
但我认为到2030年、2032年，甚至3132年，我们终将崭露头角。
But I think by 2030, 2032, 3132, I think I was starting to surface up.
人们可能还看不清我们在PC客户端产品上能有多大潜力。
People may not understand how big potential I can be in terms of product, you know, on a PC client.
这才是我们的根本业务。
That's our bread and butter.
我们会从终端扩展到边缘计算，再深入物理AI和自主AI领域。
And we move up to the edge and move into the physical AI and agentic AI.
过去，你提供的无非就是服务器和电脑，给普通人用。
And because right now, in the past, you basically provide the server, provide the PC for human.
现在你开始进入另一个全新的维度。
Now you're starting to have another different dimension.
成千上万的智能体都需要运行。
It's millions of agent.
它们都需要调用计算资源。
They need to come access the compute.
它们会接入整个软件栈。
They access into the software stack.
我觉得这一块，我们有机会大有作为。
So I think that part, I think we have a chance to really play.
游戏还没结束呢。
The game is not over yet.
我们既能参与注入式AI，也能切入物理AI。
We can play on the injected AI and also the physical AI.
这大概就是我的方向了。
So that's kind of where I'm going.
而人工智能才刚刚开始。
And the AI is just the beginning.
你有詹森在边缘计算和代理AI方面的训练，还有物理AI，我觉得这些都混在一起了。
You have the training that Jensen owned in the edge and also in terms of agentic AI with agents and also physical AI, I think is the jumble.
每个人都有机会。
Everybody have a chance.
所以我觉得这就是我想推进的方向。
So I think that's part that I want to go for it.
我希望投资者能明白，尽管我们在十四个月内为股东实现了六倍回报，但这只是个开始。
And so I think hopefully the investor will know, even though in fourteen months, we make six time return to the shareholder, it's just a beginning.
我们还有很大的发展空间。
We still have a lot of room to go.
从这里开始，风险投资的回报才刚刚显现。
There's venture returns from here.
是的，我一向追求十倍回报。
Yeah, so I always look for 10x.
骨子里是个投资人，自然就想着找十倍回报的机会。
Being a venture at heart, you want to look for 10x.
我在Cadence当CEO时，退任前差不多做到了76倍，那时候股价还是2.42美元起的。
And at Cadence, when I stepped down as a CEO, I think we make about close to 76 times, and starting from interim CEO, $2.42.
等我卸任执行董事长时，股东回报已经接近85倍了。
And then when I retire as executive chairman, about 85 time return to the shareholder.
但在英特尔做这种事很难，因为盘子太大了。
So it's hard to do that at Intel because the base is bigger.
所以我干脆想，那就冲着十倍去吧。
So I kind of said, okay, let's do it at 10 x.
你懂的吧。
You know?
五年、十年，要是真能实现十倍回报，作为投资人，这回报就相当不错了。
And then five year, ten years, if we can do 10x, think it's a good return being a venture capital at heart.
这大概就是我的目标。
That's kind of my goal.
所以从这么庞大的基础出发，这项任务的前景真是令人期待。
So there's Godspeed on this very, very large mission from this huge base already.
你提到的这种工作负载分布，其实背后有一种根深蒂固的信念，对吧？
There's an embedded belief in what you described about where the workload is, right?
有些人可能会说，我们只要不断扩建更大的数据中心，一吉瓦只是起点而已。
Where I think some would say like, we're just gonna build bigger and bigger data centers, and a gigawatt is the beginning.
但真正占主导地位的，还是集中式部署——把推理计算也集中起来处理，而不是总想着边缘端或者客户端。
But the centralization and the efficiency from running even the inference compute in a centralized way is the dominant way versus thinking about the edge, thinking about the client.
你认为计算资源最终会达到某种平衡状态吗？还是说，这完全取决于实际的工作负载需求？
Do you think that there's like an equilibrium state that you believe in of where the compute is, or is it just we will find out from the workload?
你是怎么看待这个问题的？
How do you think about that?
说得对。
Yeah.
这个问题问得非常好。
I think that's a very good question.
现在，人工智能领域的投入规模非常大。
Right now, there's a massive buildup in terms of the AI.
我觉得这是正确的方向。
I think it's the right thing to do.
我看不出有什么能减缓这个趋势，因为需求增长得太快了。
I don't see there's anything to slow it down because the workload is increasing a lot.
接下来的问题是
And then I think the question mark is
而且我们的供应能力受限。
how- And we are supply constrained.
我们的供应能力确实受限。
We are supply constrained.
所以我觉得，真正拖慢脚步的是供应瓶颈，但另一方面，我始终关注整个基础设施的建设。
So I think anything slowed down is the supply constraint, but I think the other part is I always look at all this infrastructure build out.
最终，你得看清楚目标是什么，你想解决什么应用问题，而我更看重应用本身。
At the end, you have to look at what is the solution, what is the application you want to drive, And I'm more focused on application.
所以如果你能找出一个规模巨大的应用，或者把几个应用叠加起来形成足够大的价值，然后专注去做，那并不是每个参与者都能赢。
So if you can identify the application that is humongous or add up a few application to become meaningful, and you focus on that, it's not everybody built gonna be winning.
有些人会大获成功，有些人则会慢慢被淘汰，或者原地打转。
And so some gonna be winning big time and some gonna lose over time or some go sideway.
就像互联网时代一样，你看有些公司变得特别大，比如亚马逊、奈飞，但也有很多公司渐渐消失，或者被收购了。
So, you know, just like Internet, you can see some of them turn out to be very big, like Amazon, like Netflix, and then some of them is kind of go sideways and disappear or being acquired.
所以对我来说，这其实是一样的逻辑。
And so I think to me, it's the same approach.
关键是要看他们到底想服务哪个应用，这个应用的市场规模有多大，是否具有可持续性，或者是不是已经人满为患。
Then they really focus on what application they try to serve, and that application, how big is that, and whether it's sustainable or not, or it's very crowded.
如果竞争太激烈，可能只有一两家能活下来，其他的就会被整合掉。
So if it's too crowded, maybe one or two may survive, the other may be just consolidate.
我觉得这个行业现在正处于高速增长之后，开始进入整合阶段。
So I think this industry go through that big growth and then starting to consolidate.
最后，可能只有一两家能真正成为赢家。
Maybe eventually one or two become the real winner.
所以我觉得这剧情我们早就看过了，一点都不意外。
So I think that's kind of we've watched the movie before, so it's not a surprise to me.
但关键是看应用，比如奈飞，这就是一个应用。
But focus on application, like Netflix is application.
亚马逊也是一个实实在在的应用。
Amazon is a real application.
在我看来，这些才是真正的赢家。
That, to me, they're winning.
但你假设了，有些应用由客户端或边缘计算来服务，会比只靠数据中心更合适。
But you're assuming that some of these applications, they will be better served by client or edge compute than only by the
数据中心。
data center.
没错。
Exactly.
明白了。
Okay.
没错。
Exactly.
对。
Yeah.
我说实话，我投资了几家做机器人和国防科技的公司。
I mean, I will say, I'm an investor in a number of companies that, you know, they're doing robotics, they're doing defense.
所以设备上的计算能力对我们来说是个关键考量，比如未来家用机器人，你对家中环境和网络连接的预设，直接决定了你能实现什么功能。
And so the compute on the device is a very important choice in terms of our And what we assume around it, like, let's say, a robot in the home eventually, like what you assume is in the home and in connectivity around it determines what you're able to do.
我觉得在SaaS时代，这一点一度被忽略了。
And I think that it was kind of forgotten for a little bit in the SaaS era.
是的，没错。
Yes, yes.
所以我的投资理念是，先找到一个真正需要解决的问题。
So I think my investment thesis is find a problem that is really need to solve.
其次，谁会是那个你可以合作的玩家？
And secondly, who will be the player that you can partner with?
第三，看看这个应用场景。
And then thirdly, look at the application.
这个应用的规模有多大？
How big is that application?
它能持续下去吗？
Is that sustainable?
如果真的很大，而且你相信它，那就再翻两到三倍。
And if it's really big, you believe in it, double, triple that.
但你是在押注那些还没大规模落地的应用。
But you're including betting on applications that have not yet been broadly deployed.
明白了。
Okay.
太惊人了。
It's amazing.
非常感谢你今天加入我们的对话。
Well, thank you so much for joining us today.
这真是我的荣幸。
It was a pleasure.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
谢谢，Lip Bu。
Thanks, Lip Bu.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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