31. 朋友对你的未来影响有多大？

等等。

So wait.

你是说你比我更有深度。

You're saying you're deeper than me.

是啊。

Yeah.

显然。

Obvi.

嘿。

Hey.

我是安吉拉·达克沃斯。

I'm Angela Duckworth.

我是史蒂文·杜布纳。

I'm Steven Dubner.

你正在收听《没有愚蠢的问题》。

And you're listening to no stupid questions.

本期节目探讨：你的友谊能预示人生成功程度吗

Today on the show, do your friendships predict how successful you'll be

？

in life?

我的朋友几乎个个都是工作狂。

My friends are all practically manic.

他们都特别，怎么说呢，左倾。

They're so, like, left.

另外，不同职业与幸福感有何关联？

Also, how do different occupations correlate with happiness?

你就是那个没在建造上帝圣殿的砌砖工。

You were the bricklayer who was not building the temple of God.

你只是个砌砖的。

You were just the bricklayer.

是啊。

Yeah.

我当时只是在建外屋。

I was just building the outhouse.

史蒂文，我有个问题是由'死亡鹅肝'账号在推特上@我们的。

Steven, I have a question that was tweeted at us by at death by foie.

你五个最亲密朋友的关联性是否真能预测成功和你的人生走向？

Is the correlation of your five closest friends a real predictor of success and where you're going in life?

哦，我喜欢这个问题。

Oh, I like that question.

我明白你为什么也喜欢这个问题，因为我知道你关心并研究友谊。

I can see why you like the question too because I know that you care about and study friendship.

在我看来，这里有两个核心问题需要我们尝试解答。

So to me, there are two central questions we need to try to answer there.

一是你的朋友圈与未来是否存在强关联性；如果存在，是朋友圈特质显著改变了你的未来，还是你选择了符合你人生规划的朋友。

One is whether there is a strong correlation between your friend group and your future, and if so, whether there's something about that friend group that significantly causes your future to change or whether you choose friends who will fit the future that you're planning.

没错。

Yes.

我认为一旦突破相关性，我们就该探讨因果关系。

I think that we should get to causality once we get beyond correlation.

我觉得这才是这个问题最有趣的部分。

That's, I think, the most interesting part of this question.

因为有句话说：看看你最亲密的五个朋友。

Because there is this expression, look at your five closest friends.

那就是你的现状，也将是你的未来。

That's who you are, and that's who you're gonna be.

这是一句谚语，但我一直对这句话非常怀疑。

That is a saying, but I've always been very suspicious of that saying.

难道你不是吗？

Have you not?

嗯，如果我想想我最亲近的五个朋友

Well, if I think of my five closest friends

我排第几？

What number am I?

我只关心这个。

That's all I care about.

我是第18名吗？

Am I number 18?

我能进前12名吗？

Do I make the top 12?

你是第一名，史蒂文。

You're number one, Steven.

永远都是。

Always.

好吧。

Okay.

我另外五个最亲密的朋友。

My other five closest friends.

好吧。

Okay.

首先，他们和我很像。

First of all, they're a lot like me.

所以我的朋友几乎都很狂热。

So my friends are all practically manic.

她们都是女性。

They're so, like, they're all women.

她们都和我年龄相仿。

They're all around my age.

她们都和我教育背景相似。

They're all around my educational demographic.

我觉得很有趣的一点是，我们最亲密的朋友往往和我们非常相像。

I think it's interesting to observe that our closest friends are so much like us.

好吧。

Okay.

如果这个观察总体上是准确的，那么我认为这对问题中的论点是个不利因素。

So if that observation is accurate, let's say, in the aggregate, then I would have to think that that's a strike against the argument in the question.

我认为这更多是因为你选择的朋友都是和你志同道合的人。

I would think it's more a byproduct of the fact that you choose people to be friends who are kind of moving in the direction that you're moving in.

是啊。

Yeah.

这通常被称为同质性。

And it's often called a homophily.

物以类聚，人以群分。

Birds of a feather tend to flock together.

如果相似性确实是这种关联的核心，那么我们聚在一起是因为相似，这就说明朋友对你的结果并没有因果影响，因为实际情况并非如此。

And if that's really the heart of the correlation that because we're so similar, we aggregate, then that does argue against your friends having a causal effect on your outcome because that's not really what's what's going on.

但有证据表明——我相信你也知道——耶鲁大学人类本性实验室的尼古拉斯·克里斯塔基斯的研究。

But there is evidence, and I'm sure you're familiar with it, by Nicholas Christakis, who runs the human nature lab at Yale.

他是《大连接》的合著者，这本书讲述了社交网络的惊人力量及其如何塑造我们的生活。

He's the coauthor of a book called Connected, the surprising power of our social networks and how they shape our lives.

他提出，我们的社交圈在情绪和行为上对我们影响巨大，从健康到政治等方方面面。

He makes an argument that our social circles influence us greatly in terms of emotions and behaviors, everything from health to politics, etcetera.

他的论点是，实际上，我们所谓的个体更像是我们所认识和倾听的人群的综合产物。

And his argument is that, really, what we think of as the individual is actually much more a compounded result of the people that we know and listen to.

那么你对这项研究和论点怎么看？

So what do you think of that research and argument?

是的。

Yeah.

尼克可能是研究这个观点最著名的学者——他认为我们的社交网络不仅是自我的映射，实际上还会引发自我改变。

Nick is probably the most famous researcher on this idea that our social networks are not only a reflection of ourselves, but actually cause changes in ourselves.

他使用的数据来自弗雷明汉心脏研究，顾名思义，这项研究原本是关于心脏健康、心血管疾病等课题的。

And he has this data from the Framingham Heart Study, which, by the way, was about, as it suggests, heart health and cardiovascular disease and so forth.

但研究者们挖掘这些数据仅仅是因为它是一组非常完整的数据集。

But it's also been mined by researchers just because it was a really robust set of data.

是吗？

Yes?

见机行事地。

Opportunistically.

对。

Yeah.

我记得弗雷明汉是马萨诸塞州的一个小镇。

And I believe Framingham is this little town in Massachusetts.

这个数据集的有趣之处在于，由于所有数据都来自同一地理区域，研究对象彼此相识，因此可以绘制出社交图谱——谁与谁是朋友、亲属、夫妻关系，以及二度、三度分隔关系等等。

And I think the interesting feature of this dataset is that because it was in this one geographic location, the people in the dataset happened to know each other, and you can map out who's friends with whom, who's relatives of whom, who's married to whom, who's two degrees of separation, three degrees of separation, etcetera.

尼克分析这些数据时，最著名的发现之一就是肥胖具有传染性——不仅你认识的人会影响你的体重变化，更惊人的是，这种影响甚至可能来自你社交圈外围的人。

And when Nick analyzed this, one of the famous findings was the finding that obesity is contagious in the sense that your weight and your weight change was predicted not only by the people you know, but the more startling finding is it's not even necessarily that they're in your direct circle, but maybe the outer circle.

比如如果我影响了史蒂文，而史蒂文又认识其他人，即使我与那些人素不相识，我的政治倾向、饮食习惯等仍可能像病毒传播那样产生连锁影响。

If I influence you, Steven, and you happen to know someone else, and I don't even have to know them, but my politics or the way I eat or anything else could go viral as it were in the same way that the actual virus goes viral.

请允许我对此稍作质疑。

So let me just push back on that a little bit.

我知道克里斯塔基斯的研究也受到质疑，有人认为他和同事们可能混淆了本应区分对待的多个问题。

And I know that some of the Christakis research has been challenged as well in arguing that he and his colleagues maybe conflate a variety of issues that should be considered separate.

顺着这个思路，当讨论社交圈或社区中的肥胖问题时，我确实能看到行为相互影响的渠道，但也能看到纯粹环境因素的渠道。

So along those lines, when you talk about obesity in a social circle or in a community, yes, I can see a channel by which there'd be behavioral rub off, but I can also see a channel that is purely environmental.

换句话说，如果我生活的地方最容易获取、最便宜的食物都是让人快速发胖的食品，那么这可能更多是社区环境影响，而非所谓的社交行为影响。

In other words, if I live in a place where the easiest, cheapest, most available food is food that really makes you fat fast, then maybe you're looking at a community effect more than a kind of, quote, social behavioral effect.

你怎么看这个观点？

What do you think of that idea?

这些社交网络分析背后的统计方法非常复杂，它们试图规避这个问题。

Well, the statistics behind these social network analyses are very sophisticated, and they try to get around that.

又是那套复杂的统计说辞。

The old sophisticated statistics argument.

老生常谈。

That old saw.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

其实我最近和你好友史蒂夫·列维特有过交流。

You know, actually, your good friend, Steve Levitt, and I were recently in conversation.

他作为客座嘉宾参加了宾大的本科生课程，他说从经济学角度看，关键要记住相关数据和实验数据之间存在明显界限。

He came as a guest speaker to an undergraduate class at Penn, and he said, one thing to keep in mind from an economist perspective is that there is a bright line between correlational data and experimental data.

我们可以通过控制大量变量和使用各种复杂方法，让相关数据无限接近实验数据，但它永远不会成为真正的实验。

We can try to get the correlational data to be closer and closer to an experiment by controlling for lots of variables and doing fancy schmancy acrobatic stuff, but it'll never be an experiment.

比如弗雷明汉艺术研究从未随机分配人们与特定朋友交往。

So the Framingham art study never randomly assigned people to have, you know, friend a instead of friend b.

我认为这确实是主要局限所在。

And indeed, that, I think, is the major limitation.

确实存在对社交网络分析方法的批评。

And there have been critiques of the social network analysis approach.

例如，有篇论文指出，如果采用相同的分析方法，身高也具有传染性。

For example, there was one paper that said, if you use the same analyses, height is contagious too.

所以我认为这是一种局限性。

So I think it's a limitation.

我想说的是，有足够多的证据表明我们确实相互影响，基本上可以说——看吧。

I would say that there is enough converging evidence that we do influence each other to basically say, look.

让我们假设存在某种预测机制，然后尝试解析它。

Let's assume that there is some prediction going on and then try to unpack it.

我必须相信，是的，我们对朋友确实存在影响力。

I have to believe that, yes, we have influence on our friends.

听起来我们在这个问题上持中立态度，即承认存在某种预测力或因果关系是合理的，但也很容易过度解读。

So it sounds like we're coming down kind of in the middle on this, which is that, yeah, it makes sense that there's some predictive power or some causal relationship, but it'd be easy to read too much into it.

我要说的是。

I will say this.

尽管我很想论证箭头可能指向相反方向——是我们选择了朋友，就像你我似乎都选择了与自己相似的人做朋友，而非通过友谊变得像他们；但另一方面，我的直觉反应是确实存在强烈的因果关系。

As much as I would like to make the argument that the arrow is maybe traveling in the other direction, that we choose people, as it sounds like you and I have both chosen people to be our friends who are a lot like us as opposed to us becoming like them through friendship, on the other hand, my gut response would be to think that there really is a strong causal relationship.

因为只要想想朋友圈能通过哪些渠道影响你的生活、所有人生结果——比如你选择或维持怎样的恋爱关系。

Because if you just think about all the channels by which your friend group can influence your life, all your outcomes, so who you choose or stay with as a romantic partner.

我能看到这些会受朋友和社交圈的影响，包括你如何结识伴侣，这可能进而影响你是否组建家庭等等。

I can see that being influenced by your friend and social group, maybe how you met your romantic partner, and that may lead to whether you have a family, etcetera.

我也能看到朋友圈会影响你考虑哪些职业选择、做出什么决定，甚至影响你如何评估自己正在做的选择。

I can also see your friend group influencing what kind of career options you consider, the choices you make, and then also how you assess the choices you're making.

某个在你看来绝佳的工作或项目选择，朋友们可能认为是浪费时间。

Something that you may consider brilliant as a job or project choice, and your friends may think is a waste of time.

那你会换新朋友吗？

Do you then get new friends?

又或者——我认为更可能的是——你会转变自己的倾向。

Or perhaps, which I would think is more likely, you shift your orientation.

因此我看到了许多方面，确实，朋友——尤其是在你十几岁、二十多岁时，而到了你我这样的年纪则影响较小——能对你人生的实际走向产生深远影响。

So I can see a lot of ways in which, yes, friends, especially in your teens, twenties, and less when you're at the advanced stage that you and I are, could have a deep influence on how your life actually turns out.

所以我持保留态度地略微倾向于赞同这个观点。

So I am coming down a little bit on the side of yes here with reservations.

有研究不是针对青少年或年轻人，而是在职场中进行的——当然职场平均年龄远高于二十多岁——研究表明情绪具有传染性。

There's research not on teenagers or even young adults, but in the workplace where, of course, the average age is well above twenties, that emotion is contagious.

这让我想到沃顿商学院教授西格尔·巴萨德的研究成果。

And I'm thinking about the work of Wharton professor Sigal Barsaid.

她称之为情绪传染，其理论认为当你上班或参加Zoom会议时，无论心情好坏都会产生影响。

She calls this emotional contagion, and her idea is that you come to work or, I guess, you get on a Zoom call, and you're in a good mood or you're in a bad mood.

这种情绪会像病毒般传播，因为你通过面部表情、肢体语言和语调等传递着自己的情绪。

And the emotion goes viral in the sense that you are expressing yourself with your facial expressions and your body language, the tone of your voice, etcetera.

根据她的理论，接下来会发生的是：人们会在无意识中模仿你，而模仿其实是人类的本能反应。

Now the next thing in her theory that happens is that other people without their conscious knowledge mimic you, and mimicry is actually this hardwired human response.

我注意到自己就有这个问题——当和带英国口音的人交谈时，天啊这太糟糕了。

I noticed this about myself when I'm talking to somebody who has, like, a British accent, and, oh my god, it's so terrible.

我会不自觉地模仿他们的口音。

I start mimicking their accent.

新泽西南部的人真不该模仿英国口音，虽然我不想这样，但就是控制不住。

People from South Jersey should not mimic British accents, and I don't want to, but it just happens.

所以当你出现时——

So you come on.

带着高涨的积极情绪——

You're in a really high energy positive mood.

甚至在我自己都没意识到的情况下，就开始模仿你的语调、肢体语言和面部表情。

Without even my conscious awareness, I start mimicking your tone of voice, your body language, your facial expressions.

接着我就会真实感受到自己行为上正在模仿的那些情绪。

And then I actually start to feel the emotions that I am behaviorally mimicking.

所以我觉得这是个非常有趣的现象，不仅出现在青少年或年轻时期，甚至在我们白发苍苍的年纪也是如此。

So I just think it's a very interesting phenomenon that's probably not just when we're teenagers or young adults, even at our distinguished gray haired age.

你刚才的解释听起来像是一串合理的关联。

What you just explained sounds like a plausible chain of connections.

但情绪信号确实会发生，然后会出现一些模仿行为。

But The emotional signaling happens, and then there's some mimicry.

不过我确实好奇这种情绪模仿的衰减速度。

But I really would wonder about the decay rate of that emotional mimicry.

可能对接下来一小时的Zoom会议有用，但这能改变我吗？

It might be useful to me in the next hour for the Zoom call, but is that going to change me?

我认为大概率不会。

And I would argue probably no.

噢，我不确定这是否会让你变成性格更开朗的人。

Oh, I don't know if it's gonna make you into a dispositionally happier person.

但我的意思是，这正是我们讨论的重点。

But, I mean, that's what we're talking about.

我觉得这是个有趣的思考角度。

I think it's an interesting way to think about things.

不过，如果把这当作因果机制的一个渠道，我认为这是个相当微弱或短暂的渠道。

But, also, if I were counting that as a channel of causal mechanism, I would think that's a pretty weak or short lasting channel.

好吧。

Okay.

有道理。

Fair.

但我想说的是。

But I would say this.

我曾经有个室友。

I had a roommate.

我很喜欢这位室友。

I loved this roommate.

但我们同住的那一年，正是他人生中黯淡无光的一段时期。

But the year that we lived together, it was not a very bright and happy year in this roommate's life.

我必须告诉你，不仅仅是某次Zoom通话或某次交谈，而是长期面对一个忧郁沮丧的人，那种情绪确实会逐渐渗透影响你。

And I have to tell you that after not just one Zoom call, not just, like, one conversation, but constant exposure to somebody who's in a melancholy blue mood, I did feel like it was starting to seep in.

那你是怎么处理的？

And what did you do?

你搬走了对吧？

You got out of there, didn't you?

租约一到期我就搬了。

I did as soon as the lease was up.

我当时就想，太好了。

I was like, that was great.

我要搬家。

I'm moving.

你看，我认为这正是人们在寻求关系积极面时常常忽视的机制。

See, I think that's the mechanism that is often overlooked when people are looking for the positive result of a relationship.

消极影响很难量化，或者说缺位效应很难衡量。

It's hard to measure the negative, or it's hard to measure the omission.

我是说，当意识到某段友谊正把你引向歧途时，斩断羁绊需要多大勇气。

I mean, I think of how hard it can be to break bonds when you feel that the friendship is leading you somewhere you don't wanna go.

我大学时有个非常要好的朋友，但他很狂野。

I had a friend in college who's a very close friend, but he was wild.

我们干过不少疯狂的事。

And we did a lot of wild things.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Hold on.

我需要细节。

I need details.

我猜大多数事情都已经过了诉讼时效。

I'm guessing statute of limitations is gone on most of the stuff.

不过确实，我们开过不属于自己的车，还有...什么来着？

But, yeah, there were cars driven that didn't belong to us and What?

摩托车以非法速度飙到不该去的地方。

Motorcycles ridden at speeds that are not legal into places that they shouldn't have been ridden to.

哇哦。

Wow.

后来发现他有严重的吸毒酗酒问题。

Now as it turns out, he had a serious drug and alcohol problem.

在大学里，你多少可以把这归咎于环境氛围。

And in college, you can kinda chalk that up to the vibe of the place.

但我要说，随着时间推移，我越来越无法忍受他出现在我的生活中。

I will say, though, as the years went on, I became increasingly less comfortable having him in my life.

这个故事的悲惨结局是：他是爱尔兰人，最后死在了都柏林的利菲河里。

The very sad ending in the story is he was Irish, and he wound up dead in the River Liffey in Dublin.

这段友谊曾让我害怕，我花了很长时间才终于抽身。

That was a friendship that scared me, and it took me a long time, but I had to back out.

我告诉自己，如果继续走他的路，终将堕入万劫不复的境地。

And I told myself, if I continue down his path, then I'm going to go somewhere that I don't wanna be.

我要用这个故事——虽然只是个例——来反驳所谓'朋友会推着我们走向无法掌控的命运'这种观点。

And I would offer that story granted, it's just one story, but I would offer that as counter evidence against the fact that we fall in with a group of friends, and they shove us towards some destiny that we cannot control.

其实你同样可以用这个故事来佐证朋友确实存在因果影响，因此人们常会谨慎筛选交友对象，警惕不良影响。

Well, you could also use the exact same story to bolster the argument that there is a causal influence of friends, and therefore, people often curate their friendships wary of the bad effects of friends whose influences we don't want.

对吧？

Right?

呃，我并不是想暗示因果关系。

Well, I did not mean to suggest causality.

事实上，我认为如果这是个微型数据集，反而会反驳'友谊深刻影响未来'的基本论点——因为他曾是我最亲密的朋友之一。

In fact, I would argue that if this were a little miniature dataset, that this would argue against the underlying argument that friendships deeply influence our futures because he was one of my closest friends.

对。

Right.

所以仅从读者问题的表面意思来看，就是：看看你五个朋友的情况。

So just taking this reader's question at face value, which is like, take your five friends.

很好。

Great.

那就是你余生的水晶球了。

Now that's the crystal ball for the rest of your life.

是的。

Yes.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

当然，如果你主动改变交友圈，不再接触那些你不愿效仿的朋友。

Obviously, if you actively change your friendship group to not be like the people in your friend group who you don't wanna be like.

但我觉得我是从更深层的因果关系来解读读者问题的。

But I think I was reading the reader's question at this deeper causal level.

等等。

So wait.

让我先退一步确认是否理解你的反对意见。

Let me just back up to make sure I understand your objection.

你是说你比我更深刻？

You're saying you're deeper than me?

是的。

Yeah.

艾维。

Avi.

我之前没理解关于正确深度的问题，现在你来纠正我了。

I didn't understand the question on the proper depth, and now you're here to set me straight.

很高兴你跟上了。

I'm glad you caught up.

终于。

Finally.

不过好吧。

But okay.

我稍微解读了一下这条推文，可能我解读得有点过度深入了。

I was reading a little bit into this tweet, and maybe I read a little too deep Lee, into it.

但我认为这个问题实际上是在探讨朋友是否会对我们自身的性格和品格产生因果影响。

But I thought the question was really about whether our friends do or don't have a causal influence on our own personality and character.

我想说的是，这个故事当然应该支持他们具有因果影响的观点，否则我们也不会费心去避免某些友谊，等等。

And I wanted to say that, of course, this story must argue in favor of their having a causal influence because otherwise, we wouldn't take the trouble to avoid certain friendships, etcetera.

但你是对的。

But you're right.

我当时在解读推文时，深入了大概六个层次。

I was reading, like, six levels down into a tweet.

嗯，你还在论证影响可以是正面或负面的，这显然是个很好的观点。

Well, you're also arguing that influence can be positive or negative, which is obviously a good point.

你生活中有没有这样一个人，你会说，你知道吗？

Is there somebody in your life that you would say, you know what?

如果没有某某某，我就不会是今天的我。

I wouldn't be the man I am today were it not for fill in the blank.

嗯，我大概遇到过一两个这样的人，但我不会称他们为朋友。

Well, I've had maybe one and a half people like that, but I wouldn't have called them friends.

我会称他们为导师或老师。

I would have called them mentors or teachers.

结婚多年后，你是否变得更像你妻子艾伦了？

Did you become more like Ellen, your wife, after being married for a long time?

哦，我肯定变得更像艾伦了。

Oh, I'm sure I've become more like Ellen.

我是说，这不就是夫妻之间会发生的事吗？

I mean, isn't that what happens to couples, though?

嗯，这就是我想问你的原因，因为这也是这个问题的一个版本。

Well, that's why I wanted to ask you that because that's a version of this question too.

我想这确实是个版本，但我认为这是不同的版本，因为通常一次只有一个伴侣，而不是五个伴侣组成的圈子。

I guess it is a version, but I do see that as a different version because there's usually one partner at a time, not a circle of five partners.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

It's true.

那么，安吉，你呢？

And, Angie, what about you?

有没有某个人或一群人让你成为了现在的安吉·达克沃斯，如果没有他们，你可能还是苏珊·多诺万？

Is there a person or group of people who you feel turned you into Angie Duckworth and that without them, you'd be, you know, Susan Donovan.

我可以说出一个确实改变了我成长轨迹的人。

I can name somebody who I think did change my development.

那是在高中时期，我开始和一个叫格雷格·米勒的男生成为非常好的朋友。

And it was in my high school, I started getting to be really good friends with this guy named Greg Miller.

他当时读约翰·斯坦贝克的小说纯粹是为了消遣。

He was reading John Steinbeck novels for fun.

他真是个知识分子，文笔也相当出色。

And he was such an intellectual, and he wrote really well.

他整天就是思考各种点子，偶尔抽点大麻，但主要还是思考，有时两者兼顾。

And he was just, like, thinking about ideas and sometimes smoking pot, but mostly thinking about ideas and sometimes both.

但记得和格雷格成为挚友时，那简直是顿悟时刻。

But I remember when I got to be really good friends with Greg, it was an enlightenment.

我当时就懵了：啥？

And I was like, what?

思考居然很酷？

Thinking is cool?

而且你思考纯粹为了乐趣，而不是为了即将到来的AP考试。

And you do it for funsies instead of just for the AP exam that's coming up.

所以你之前是反对思考的？

And you were anti thinking before then?

毕竟我当时是啦啦队员，整天参加啤酒派对。

I mean, I was a cheerleader, and I was having keg parties.

算不上什么知识分子。

I wasn't exactly an intellectual.

所以这确实改变了我的本质。

So I do think it changed who I was.

改变了我对择校的选择。

It changed where I wanted to go to school.

我就想：哦，我要上好大学，要和格雷格那样的人在一起。

I was like, oh, I wanna go to a good college, and I wanna be with other people like Greg.

所以没错，这大概...彻底改变了我的人生轨迹。

And so, yeah, I think that probably, you know, changed my life forever.

不得不说，现在这个人生阶段还能结交新朋友，确实让人兴奋。

I do find it really exciting, I have to say, to make friends now at this stage in my life.

这件事有种令人振奋的满足感，因为尽管它与你孩童、青少年或大学时期交友截然不同，但我觉得现在认识新朋友时，内心的不安全感反而减少了。

There's something just exhilarating and rewarding about it because even though it's plainly very different from when you're making friends as a kid or an adolescent or in college, I feel like when you meet someone now, there's less insecurity.

多了几分自信。

There's more confidence.

你清楚自己的好恶。

You know what you like and don't like.

你早已做出许多这类决定，也懂得如何表达自我。

You've already made a lot of those decisions, and you know how to express yourself.

因此我认为，当我们思考友谊的形成及其对人生的影响时，这是个绝佳的问题。

And so I feel that when we think about friendship formation and how it will influence your life, I think it's a great question.

很高兴今天有听众提出这个问题，但确实值得从更长远的角度思考——友谊的形成、朋友的影响力、朋友的价值以及身为朋友的价值，这些都能贯穿你的一生。

I'm glad the listener asked it today, but I do think it's worth thinking about it from a longer view in that friendship formation and the influence of friends and the value of friends and the value of being a friend can continue throughout your life.

至少，我希望是这样的理念。

At least, I hope that's the idea.

虽然不想让你在广播里太脸红，但我觉得我们的友谊棒极了，尽管我们才认识四五年。

And I should say without making you blush too much on the radio, I feel like our friendship is awesome, and we've only known each other for four or five years.

所以我很珍惜这段友情。

And so I'll take it.

史蒂文，我脸红了。如果说我的未来是五位密友的平均值，那么自从遇见你，我的未来变得更光明了。

Steven, I am blushing, and I think if my future is the average of my five closest friends, I think since meeting you, the future got a little brighter.

不过

Still

接下来在《无蠢问题》节目中，史蒂文和安吉拉将探讨职业选择如何影响心理健康。

to come on no stupid questions, Steven and Angela discuss how your career choice may affect your mental health.

哎呀。

Oops.

我勾错了选项，现在成了发条人。

I checked the wrong box, and now I'm a man of the clock.

安吉拉，我今天要问你的问题来自一位名叫凯文·亨特的听众，他正在爱荷华大学攻读化学教育博士学位。

Angela, my question for you today is from a listener named Kevin Hunter, and Kevin is working on PhD in chemistry education at the University of Iowa.

化学教育，这非常高尚。

That's very noble, chemistry education.

凯文想知道哪种职业的人最幸福，但我觉得这里有些潜台词特别适合你。

So Kevin wants to know which profession has the happiest people, but I think there's a little subtext here that's particularly relevant for you.

听起来他已经对学术界有所怀疑了。

It sounds like he is already suspicious of academia.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为他写道：'我和朋友经常讨论，鉴于一些导师和同事的行为方式，我们很难在学术界找到自我定位。'

Because he writes that my friend and I often talk about how difficult it is to view ourselves in the academic world given the way some of our advisers and colleagues act.

所以从字里行间推测，他可能目睹过一些不体面的行为，或者很多痛苦的现象。

So reading between the lines, I'm guessing he's seen either some unseemly behavior or maybe just a lot of misery.

总之这促使凯文提出疑问：'是否存在某种职业，那里的人普遍最幸福，并且非常乐于与同事共事？'

Anyway, that leads Kevin to ask, quote, whether there was a line of work that seemed to generally have the happiest people who are amazingly happy to work with those they work with.

那么安吉，我们先从宏观角度开始。

So, Angie, let's start broad.

心理学或其他领域的文献，能给我们提供哪些关于幸福与工作的普遍认知？

What can the literature, whether in psychology or elsewhere, teach us about happiness and work generally?

我在研究生时期的导师是马丁·塞利格曼。

Well, my adviser in graduate school was Marty Seligman.

马丁·塞利格曼是积极心理学之父，这门学科专门研究幸福等积极因素。

So Marty Seligman is the father of positive psychology, which is the scientific study of happiness and other good things.

所以收到这个问题我很高兴。

So I'm very glad to be getting this question.

首先有大量研究表明，幸福的人在工作场所各方面表现都更好——包括客观指标。

There is just a mountain of research, first of all, that happy people do better in the workplace by any metric, including objective ones.

那么问题来了，为什么快乐会产生因果影响？

Then the question is, why and does happiness have a causal influence?

比如，如果你工作时心情更好，工作效率会自动提高吗？

Like, if you come to work and you're happier, will you automatically start working better?

还是说因为你本身表现优异，所以才感到快乐？

Or are you happy because you are already a high performer?

这方面证据不足，因为很难随机分配人们的快乐程度，但确实可以稍作干预。

And there, there's not as much evidence because it is hard to randomly assign people to happiness levels, but you actually can do a little bit.

比如让人们做一些能带来快乐的事，比如想想生活中的美好事物等等。

Like, you can get people to do things that induce happiness, like think about good things in their lives, etcetera.

总体来看，快乐似乎确实对工作表现有因果影响。

And it does seem on balance that happiness may have a causal influence in the workplace.

所以从工作表现角度来说，保持快乐是有益的。

So it's better to be happier just from a performance standpoint.

好的。

Okay.

这样解释完全合理。

So that makes perfect sense.

但我觉得这里可能存在测量难题。

But then I would think that there's going to be a measurement problem.

因为如果我们试图研究哪些职业的人最快乐，听起来可能不是职业本身让人快乐。

Because if we try to look at which professions have the happiest people, it sounds as though the professions may not be what's making people happy.

可能是快乐的人选择了特定类型的职业。

It may be that people who are happy choose a particular type of profession.

你能就此谈谈吗？

Can you tell us anything about that?

嗯，我猜这肯定是部分原因。

Well, I'm guessing that that must be part of it.

对吧？

Right?

这些选择效应。

These selection effects.

比如，快乐的人和不快乐的人分别会不成比例地选择哪些职业？

Like, what are the professions to which happy people versus unhappy people are disproportionately drawn?

这是个非常基础的问题。

It's such a basic question.

比如，世界上最幸福的职业有哪些？

Like, what are the happiest professions in the world?

相关数据并不多。

There's not a lot of data.

我记得大约十多年前，NORC的一位经济学家做过一项研究，他们调查了自我报告的工作满意度和生活满意度。

I know there was a study, I think it's over ten years ago, by an economist at NORC, and they looked at self reported job satisfaction and life satisfaction.

实际上，关于世界上最幸福的工作是有答案的。

And there is actually an answer to what is the happiest job in the world.

所以，史蒂文，我想让你猜猜这项调查研究认为世界上最幸福的工作是什么。

So, Steven, I'm gonna let you guess what this survey research suggested was the happiest job in the world.

是全世界还是美国？

In the world or in The US?

我想可能是在美国。

I guess it was probably in The US.

对。

Yeah.

这是综合社会调查，所以应该是在美国。

It was the general social survey, so I think it must be US.

我猜前三名是神职人员、物理治疗师和消防员。

I'm gonna say the top three are clergy, physical therapist, and firefighter.

你真是个天才。

You're a genius.

我也会用谷歌。

I can Google too.

是啊。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

是的。

Yes.

这就对了。

There you go.

就在你说话的时候，我刚好查到了2007年的一项调查。

So while you were talking, I happened to look up this 2007, as it turns out, survey.

我很抱歉。

I'm sorry.

那是最糟糕的作弊行为。

That was the worst cheating.

顺便说一下，世界上最不快乐的工作显然是屋顶工。

And by the way, the most unhappy job in the world is apparently roofing.

其次不快乐的是餐厅服务员。

Next unhappiest is being a waiter or a server in a restaurant.

顺便说下，这是2007年疫情前的数据。

This is, by the way, pre pandemic, 2007.

第三不快乐的工作基本上是体力劳动者。

And then the third most unhappy job is basically being a manual laborer.

如果我们比较这两组人——快乐组（牧师、理疗师和消防员）与不快乐组（屋顶工、服务员和体力劳动者），我们能看出这两组人有什么特征差异？

So if we were to look at those two groups, the happy group, which is clergy, physical therapists, and firefighters versus the top of the unhappy group, which are roofers, waiters and servers, and manual laborers, what do we see as the characteristics of those two groups?

嗯，我觉得特别是对于屋顶工人和体力劳动者来说，或许也可以说服务员也是如此，他们缺乏的是自主权。

Well, I think one thing about roofers and laborers in particular, but I guess you could also say this about waiters and servers, is that what they lack is autonomy.

从事这些职业时，你无法做出太多自己的选择。

You don't get to make a lot of your own choices when you're in those occupations.

对。

Right.

但让我印象深刻的是，那些快乐的工作往往是关怀型职业，或者通常被称为关怀型职业。

But the thing that jumps out to me of the happy jobs is that those are caring professions or what are usually called caring professions.

对吧？

Right?

神职人员、物理治疗师，你是在帮助他人。

Clergy, physical therapists, you're helping people.

消防员，那可以说是关怀的极端版本了。

Firefighters, I mean, that's a kind of an extreme version of caring.

难道你不能对餐厅里为你提供食物服务的人做出同样的论证吗？

Couldn't you just make the same argument about somebody who's helping you with your food in the restaurant?

他们是在为你服务。

They're serving you.

所以他们被称为服务员。

That's why they're called servers.

是的。

Yes.

但我认为有所不同。

But I think it's different.

我认为这是提供服务，而非直接服务个人。

I think it's delivering a service as opposed to kinda serving the individual.

你知道吗，有个有趣的现象，就拿屋顶工人、服务员和体力劳动者来说吧。

You know, one thing that's interesting let's just take the roofers, servers, manual laborers.

顺便说一句，如果有人好奇的话，这份名单还在继续。

By the way, if anyone's curious, the list goes on.

调酒师、包装工、货运仓储和物料处理员等等。

Bartenders, packagers, freight stock and material handlers, etcetera.

并不是说你不帮助别人，而是我认为你帮助别人的方式不够明显。

It's not that you're not helping people, but I think it's not obvious that you're helping people.

你不会遇到有人说，比如，神父，我很高兴来忏悔，因为你真的让我改过自新了。

You don't get someone who says, like, father, I'm so glad that I came to confession because you really set me straight.

你对他人产生的是这种间接或延迟的影响。

You have this distal or delayed effect on other people.

当有人抬头看天花板时会感叹，哇。

When someone looks up in their ceiling and they're like, wow.

谢天谢地。

Thank god.

在这场暴风雨中屋顶没有漏水。

The roof's not leaking during this storm.

你甚至不在现场接受感谢。

You're not even there to be thanked.

顺便说一句，如果有人搜索2007年的这项研究，屋顶工人和神职人员之间的差异可不是小数点后一位那么小。

By the way, if anybody googles this 2007 study, the difference between the roofers and the clergy is not like a tenth of a decimal point.

这是一个相当巨大的差距。

It's a pretty yawning gap.

例如，近十分之九的神职人员认为对自己的工作非常满意，但屋顶工人中只有四分之一。

For example, close to nine out of 10 clergy would consider themselves very satisfied with their work, but only one in four roofers.

这个比例完全颠倒了。

The proportions are really flipped.

所以我认为我们达成的共识是，这可能部分取决于工作的客观特征——无论是与你帮助的人建立有意义的关系还是几乎没有，以及你是否拥有自主权。

So I think where we would come to agreement is that it's probably partly the objective features of the job, whether you have meaningful relationships with the people you're helping or almost none, whether you have autonomy or not.

但我认为，这又回到了选择问题：什么样的人会从事什么样的工作，这在多大程度上是由他们的性情或幸福感驱动的。

But I think, again, this gets to the selection problem, which is what kind of person goes into what kind of work and how much of that is driven by their temperament and or their happiness.

那么你认为脾气暴躁、不快乐的人会决定去当服务员吗？

So do you think that surly unhappy people decide to become waiters?

我不会这么说，但我会说这可能并不总是他们的首选。

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that maybe it's not the first choice always.

而且我们知道，很多服务员实际上是在追求其他事业的同时做这份工作。

And as we know with a lot of waiters and servers, they are literally doing it while pursuing something else.

我是说，至少在纽约，这是老生常谈了。

I mean, at least in New York, that's the cliche.

但在纽约，这确实经常是事实。

But in New York, it's certainly often true.

换句话说，这不是我选择要做的工作。

In other words, this is not the work I chose to do.

我想，你不会意外地成为神职人员。

You don't end up in the clergy by accident, I don't think.

人们希望不会这样。

One would hope not.

比如，哎呀。

Like, oops.

我勾错了选项，现在成了神职人员。

I checked the wrong box, and now I'm a man of the cloth.

我该怎么脱掉这件法衣？

How do I get out of this cassock?