48. 行善会招来更多坏事吗？

这不科学。

This is not scientific.

这勉强算科学吧。

This is scientific ish.

嘿。

Hey.

我是安吉拉·达克沃斯。

I'm Angela Duckworth.

我是史蒂芬·杜布纳。

I'm Steven Dubner.

您现在收听的是《没有愚蠢的问题》节目。

And you're listening to no stupid questions.

今天节目中要讨论：什么时候善行会招致更多恶行？

Today on the show, when is a good deed an invitation for more bad deeds?

你好。

Hello.

达克沃斯家不是来收你家的狗屎的。

The Duckworths are not here to collect your poop.

还有，什么

Also, what

是一个人一生中能做出的最重要的选择？

is the most significant choice that a human being can make in their lifetime?

我觉得显然是决定头发往左分还是往右分。

Whether to part your hair on the left or right, I think, is the obvious choice.

安吉拉，我有个问题想请教你，关于道德风险和便便天使的。

Angela, I have a question for you about moral hazard sort of and poop angels.

你知道什么是便便天使吗？

Do you know what a poop angel is?

我想我明白道德风险是什么。

I think I know what moral hazard is.

便便天使这个概念就比较难理解了。

Poop angels is a little tougher.

我是在Nextdoor上的一篇帖子里学到这个词的，Nextdoor有点像社区版的Facebook。

So I learned the phrase in a post on Nextdoor, which is this sort of neighborhood y version of Facebook.

我知道Nextdoor。

I know Nextdoor.

一位纽约市民提议其他人加入他的行列，在社区里四处捡拾那些不替他人着想的狗主人留下的狗粪，尽管理论上在街上留狗粪是违法的，但很多人还是这么做。

So one New York City resident was proposing that others join him in going around their neighborhood and pick up dog poop that belongs to other people's dogs from those inconsiderate owners who leave it on the street, Even though it's theoretically illegal to leave dog poop on the street, many people do it.

这个人说，听着。

So this guy is saying, look.

不是我们的狗拉的。

It wasn't our dogs.

不是我的狗拉的，但如果你愿意加入我成为便便天使，四处捡拾狗粪，我们大家都会过得更好。

It wasn't my dog, but we'd all be better off if you would join me in being a poop angel, walking around picking up the poop.

所以我想知道你对这个想法整体价值的看法。

So I wanna know what you think of the overall value of this idea.

你会认为这是一种公民意识行为吗？尽管看起来很恶心但有净收益，还是说你觉得这是一种道德风险案例？你不仅让违规者逍遥法外，还鼓励他们甚至更多人继续违规，因为他们现在知道有便便天使会收拾残局？

Would you consider it an act of civic mindedness as disgusting as it may seem with the net gain, or do you think it is a sort of case of moral hazard where you not only let the offenders off the hook, but you encourage them and potentially others to, in fact, offend more because now they know these poop angels will be taking care of things?

他们遛狗时甚至不带个塑料袋就出门了。

And they'll just walk their dogs and not even take a plastic bag with them when they leave the house.

也许他们买狗就是为了让狗排便，因为你知道天使会来收拾。

Maybe they'll go buy dogs for the express purpose of pooping because you know that the angels are gonna take care.

史蒂文，你可能知道也可能不知道，但既然你定义了这个词，我得说我丈夫杰森其实就是个便便天使。

Well, Steven, you may or may not know this, but now that you define the term, I would say that my husband Jason is in fact a poop angel.

不是。

No.

真的。

True.

不是。

No.

真人真事。

True story.

哦，世界以最恶心的方式碰撞了。

Oh, world's colliding in the most disgusting way ever.

等等。

Wait.

你们没养狗啊。

You guys don't have a dog.

我们没养狗。

We don't have a dog.

我们从来没养过狗。

We've never had a dog.

但这就是我丈夫如何成为一位'粪便天使'的。

But here's how my husband is a poop angel.

我们曾住在便利店旁边的这条街上，不知为何，人们会把狗屎留下——虽然他们会特意用塑料袋装好。

We used to live on this street next to a convenience store, and for whatever reason, people would leave their dog poop, which, by the way, they would take the care to put it in a little plastic baggie.

但随后他们就把塑料袋直接丢在便利店的台阶上。

But then they would just deposit the plastic baggie on the stoop of the convenience store.

这确实不常见。

That is unusual.

实际上，那家便利店晚上会用铁栅栏门锁起来。

And, actually, the convenience store had this iron grate that closed overnight.

有些奇怪又无礼的狗主人不仅会花时间让狗在路边排便、用塑料袋装好，还会把塑料袋系在店铺的铁栅栏上。

And some of these strange and rude dog owners would not only take the time to curb their dog, put it into a plastic bag, but also they would tie the little plastic bag to the grate of the store.

这听起来不像正常行为，倒像是某种粪便破坏行为。

This does not sound like typical behave this sounds like some kind of poop vandalism.

可以说是'粪便恶魔'了。

Poop devils, if you will.

你认识那家便利店的经营者吗？

Did you know the people who ran the convenience store?

他们得罪过那些狗主人吗？

Had they offended the dog owners?

呃。

Ugh.

他们都是些老实本分的好人。

These were, like, salt of the earth people.

我们搬家了，而且那家便利店后来也关门了，但我依然爱这个家庭。

And we moved, and, also, the convenience store has since closed, but love this family.

我认为人们这么做的原因可能是觉得便利店应该有个垃圾桶，虽然店前没有，但他们可能认为这给了他们把袋装狗屎丢在便利店台阶上的权利。

And I think the reason why people would do this is because maybe people think that convenience stores ought to have a trash can, which they didn't have in front, and maybe they thought that gave them the right to just deposit the bagged poop on the stoop of the convenience store.

这很有趣，就像那些关于建筑师设计大学校园的故事——他们可以预先规划人行道，也可以先留出一片空地，观察人们如何自然踩出路径。

It's so interesting because it's also like, you know, those stories about how an architect, when they're designing a university campus, they'll think, well, I could lay out the sidewalks in this way, or I could just leave a field for now and see how people walk.

等观察到人们的行走轨迹后，再铺设成正式的道路。

And then once I see how people walk, then we'll pave it and make it a path.

所以这是一种逆向的路径依赖。

So it's a kind of inverse path dependency.

我想这确实是路径依赖，只不过是以更自然的方式开始的。

I guess it is literally path dependency, but starting in a more organic way.

但这就像某天有个人在便利店留下一袋便便，然后整个社区就决定‘这就是我们放便便的地方’了？

But it's almost as though one person, one day, left one bag of poop at the convenience store, and then the whole neighborhood decides this is where we put our poop?

不得不说，费城真是太奇怪了。

Philadelphia is so weird, I have to say.

呃。

Ugh.

现在要替费城辩护真的很难。

It's gonna be really hard to defend Philadelphia right now.

我是说，老实讲。

I mean, honestly.

所以事情就这样发生了，我们真的感到非常糟糕。

And so this is happening, and we really felt terribly.

这简直是在诋毁。

That's like denigrating.

这家伙真的要用剪刀把这些狗屎袋剪下来处理掉。

This guy had to literally snip off with a pair of scissors these poop bags and then deal with them.

剪掉它们是因为有人把它们绑在门上。

Snip them off because they tied them to the gate.

是的。

Yes.

于是我想了各种办法安装网络摄像头抓肇事者，因为我们当时就住在隔壁。

So then I had various schemes to create webcams and catch the perpetrators because we lived right next door.

有意思。

Interesting.

所以你第一时间想到惩罚手段，但你丈夫却化身成'狗屎天使'来调解。

So you immediately go for the punitive, but your husband swoops in as the poop angel.

确实如此。

I did.

我当时说了些话，不想重复原话，但你知道是以m和f开头的那些词。

I was like and I don't wanna repeat the language, but you know what it begins with, m and f.

我丈夫却说不行。

My husband was like, no.

知道我们要怎么做吗？

You know what we're gonna do?

因为我丈夫可是个公民活动家。

Because my husband is like, mister civic activist.

他是便便天使。

He's mister poop angel.

他说，我们去家得宝买个大号工业垃圾桶，装在路灯杆上——就是我们家和小超市中间那根，然后买专用尺寸的垃圾袋，等里面装满粪便就立刻更换。

He was like, let's go to a Home Depot, buy one of those big industrial trash cans, install it on the light pole that was in between our house and the convenience store, and then let's get those special sized bags, and let's change it as soon as it fills up with poop.

关于这个有太多可说的了。

So much to say about this.

第一，给杰森点赞。

Number one, kudos to Jason.

第二，你我在节目里聊过一点，私下也更多讨论过勒温式问题处理法。

Number two, you and I have talked a little bit on this show and a little bit more offline about the idea of Lewinian handling of problem solving.

库尔特·勒温是位早已去世的著名心理学家。

So Kurt Lewin is a famous long dead psychologist.

我知道丹尼·卡尼曼——这位非常著名的在世心理学家——曾说过勒温在以下方面对他影响最深。

And I know that Danny Kahneman, who is a very famous alive psychologist, talked about Kurt Lewin being his main influence in the following regard.

当你试图改变行为或解决问题时，文明社会的反应方式——尤其是有管辖权的机构——往往是制定规则、加强执法，本质上就是严厉打击，试图禁止。

And that when you're trying to change behavior or solve a problem, very often, the way civilizations respond or especially institutions that have authority over people respond is by setting rules or enforcements and trying to essentially crack down, trying to prohibit.

或者激励，比如用奖励机制之类的。

Or motivate, like incentives or whatever.

没错。

Exactly.

而事实上，你可以找到更有机的方式或更少惩罚性的方式来对抗这种倾向。

Whereas, in fact, you can find a way to fight the inclination in a slightly more organic way or less punitive way.

有趣的是，你直接采取了老派做法，比如要追查这些人并惩罚他们。

So what's interesting is here, you went straight for the old guard, like, let's track these people down and punish them.

对吧？

Right?

我们安装摄像头吧。

Let's put up cameras.

我们会找到这些人。

We'll find these people.

我会让他们休息。

I'm a rest them.

而且我得说，我经常和你想的一样。

And I have to say, I often think like you.

实际上，我曾想出一个减少狗屎的方案。

In fact, I once came up with a scheme to cut down on dog poop.

我们还为此在《纽约时报》上写了专栏，信不信由你。

We wrote a New York Times column about this, believe it not.

真不敢相信他们发表了。

I can't believe they published it.

要知道，这有点像公地悲剧或道德风险问题——如果一个人这么做，问题不大。

You know, this is a sort of tragedy of the commons problem or moral hazard problem that if one person does it, it's not a big deal.

但如果100个人都这么做，问题就开始严重了。

But if a 100 people do it, it starts to become big deal.

所以我们写了篇专栏建议，处理街道狗屎的方法是在宠物许可程序中加入DNA检测，因为在纽约这样的城市养狗本应办理许可证。

So we wrote a column suggesting that the way to deal with dog poop left on the streets is to require DNA testing as part of the licensing procedure because you're supposed to have a license if you own a dog in a city like New York.

事实上大多数人根本没办证，所以这方法可能行不通。

The fact is that most people don't, so that wouldn't have really worked.

不过，这个想法是将DNA检测作为执照申请的一部分。

But, anyway, the idea was you do DNA testing as part of your licensing.

你提交样本后，就能建立一个DNA数据库。

You'd submit it, then you'd have a DNA database.

然后如果街上出现粪便，有人可以采集样本与数据库比对，直接给那人开200美元的罚单。

And then if poop were left on the street, someone could collect a sample tested against the database and just send that person a ticket for $200.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

我想这在技术上确实已经可行了。

That's actually now possible, I guess.

确实可行。

It is possible.

事实上，世界上有几个地方已经实施过这种做法。

And in fact, in a few places around the world, this has happened.

比如新加坡之类的？

Like Singapore or something?

我记得以色列的佩塔提克瓦有人这么做过。

I I wanna say in Petak Tikva, Israel, somebody did it.

我听说有些业主协会社区具备相关技术和资源，也实施过这种做法。

I've heard of it happening in homeowners association communities that have the technology and the resources to it.

总之，这也是我的第一反应——找出违规者。

So, anyway, that would be my impulse also, which is to find the offenders.

追踪他们并让他们付出代价。

Track them down and make them pay.

但有趣的是，你丈夫说，不行。

But interestingly, your husband says, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

我们别采用《旧约》那种惩罚性的版本。

Let's not go with that Old Testament punitive version.

是啊。

Yeah.

他是《新约》那派的。

He's a New Testament guy.

我们就让人们更容易做正确的事吧，即使这会让我们付出一些代价。

Let's just make it a little easier for people to do the right thing even if it costs us some.

他并不是真的飞来飞去捡粪便的天使。

He's not really a poop angel flying around picking up poop.

他就像个粪便收集机构，因为他制定了一套流程。

He's like a poop collection agency because he established a protocol.

我觉得他能想出这么好的解决方案很了不起，但让我问几个相关问题。

I think it's remarkable that he just had such a good solution, but let me ask a few questions about it.

在你们社区这被证明是个长效解决方案吗？

Did it prove to be a lasting solution in your neighborhood?

好吧，说真的，这简直是道德风险。

Well, actually, talk about moral hazard.

我们这儿成了遛狗必来之地。

We became the place to walk your dog.

我向天发誓。

I swear to god.

天知道有多少邮编区域的狗都来这儿，粪便多到我们不得不每天更换垃圾袋。

There was, like, dogs from I don't know how many ZIP codes, but that poop added up to the point where we had to change it every day.

我当时就想，这街区根本没那么多狗啊。

I was like, there aren't even that many dogs on this block.

最后我们可能成了社区里仅存的户外垃圾桶之一。

And I think we really ended up being one of the only outdoor trash cans in the neighborhood.

后来便利店关门了，我们也搬走了。

And then the convenience store closed, and then we moved.

所有这些事大概就发生在六七个月间。

And that all happened in the space of, like, six or seven months.

这就是这个解决方案的问题所在。

And this is the problem with the solution.

我们当时就像，嘿。

We were like, hey.

谁想接管垃圾桶？

Who wants to take over the trash can?

需要有人收集垃圾袋并放进什么？

Someone needed to collect the trash bag and put it in what?

放进他们自己的待收垃圾里？

In their own garbage for pickup?

是啊。

Yeah.

我们把所有狗屎都留在自己的垃圾桶里，说实话我挺不乐意的。

We kept all this dog poop in our own garbage, which, you know, I didn't love.

所以我得开始查阅相关文献，看看你是不是越界了

So I have to start to look into the fetishizing literature here to see if you're crossing

了。

a line.

也许我丈夫有些事需要和我谈谈。

Maybe my husband's got something he needs to talk to me about.

也许'粪便天使'并不是真实情况。

Maybe poop angel is not exactly what's going on.

但让我们再理清一下这件事。

But let's untangle this a little bit more.

你说便利店关门了。

You said the convenience store closed.

你觉得这到底解决了狗屎问题吗？

Do you think that put an end to the poop problem anyway?

你认为大多数狗在往返路上都会拉屎吗？

Do you think most dogs were pooping on their way to and from?

嗯，我们觉得有可能。

Well, we thought it might.

我们当时想，太好了。

We were like, great.

因为那里其实没有营业的便利店，没人会想到在这个特定角落，他们有权利堆放狗屎，但那时已经形成习惯了。

Since there's not really an open convenience store, nobody's gonna expect that on this particular corner, they have the civil right to deposit their dog poop, but it had become a habit or whatever by then.

所以即使店铺关门后，狗屎还是和以前一样多，然后我们就搬走了。

And so even after the store closed, there was just as much poop as before, and then we moved.

我对杰森说，我们该怎么办？

And I said to Jason, what are we gonna do?

杰森，我们现在该去哪里弄狗屎？

Where are we gonna get our poop from now, Jason?

我们已经变得太依赖它了。

We've become so dependent on it.

我们不得不撤掉垃圾桶，因为没有邻居愿意接手。

Well, we had to take down the trash can because none of the neighbors wanted to take it on.

所以安吉，我不知道你对铲屎官法规的历史了解有多深入。

So, Angie, I don't know how voluminously you've read on the history of pooper scooper laws.

我没研究过铲屎官法规。

I have not read up on pooper scooper law.

不是？

No?

嗯，我告诉你，我相信这些法规是在纽约市生效的。

Well, I will tell you, I believe they came into effect in New York City.

我想这应该是上世纪七十年代的事。

I think this was the nineteen seventies.

这些法律遭到了包括美国防止虐待动物协会在内的动物权益组织的反对。

These laws were opposed by animal rights groups, including the ASPCA.

你能想到他们为什么反对吗？

Can you think why they might have opposed that?

我真的想不出来。

I really can't.

为什么？

Why?

由于犯罪率上升，纽约的狗狗领养数量大幅增加。

Dog adoption in New York had risen a lot in response to the rise of crime.

很多人因为害怕犯罪而养狗。

A lot of people got dogs because they were scared of crime.

美国防止虐待动物协会认为，如果要求人们清理狗粪，他们就会直接弃养狗狗。

And the ASPCA thought that if people were required to pick up the dog poop that they would just abandon their dogs.

比如，门都没有。

Like, no way.

我才不要碰狗屎。

I'm touching the poop.

尽管那个立场未能胜出，但关于宠物粪便清理的法律还是生效了。

That position did not win the day, though, and the pooper scooper laws went into effect.

没错，正如我从这个‘粪便天使’故事（我以此开启对话）中所看到的，仍有一些顽固的宠物主人不愿清理粪便。

And, yeah, as we can tell from this poop angel story with which I began this conversation, there is still a problem of some recalcitrant owners who don't pick up.

你看，这可能不是道德风险最典型的例子，但想想那些你被允许承担更多风险或占便宜的情况。

So look, this may not be the purest example of moral hazard, but if you think about instances where you're basically allowed to take more risk or to take advantage.

有个截然不同的例子——我一直觉得橄榄球头盔的演变很有意思：最初引入是为了防止颅骨骨折（早期橄榄球赛中频发）。

You know, one example it's very different from this, but one example I've always found really interesting is football helmets were introduced for one reason, which was to prevent skull fracture because that happened in football in the early days.

这项技术后来发展得太好了——好到让球员觉得自己几乎战无不胜，于是他们开始把头盔当作攻击对手的武器。

They became so good as a technology, the football helmets did, so good at letting a football player feel almost indomitable that they began to use the helmet as a weapon against the other players.

显然，这与随地狗粪和‘粪便天使’行为带来的后果及情境都不同。

So, obviously, it's different consequence and different circumstances than random dog poop and poop angel behavior.

但我认为，任何我们提出的解决方案都可能产生意外后果，比如洪水保险就是个典型例子。

But I do think wherever there's a solution that we come up with that may have some unintended consequences, you know, flood insurance is one of these.

如果我买了洪水保险，就更可能搬到易发洪水的地区居住。

If I am able to buy flood insurance, I'm more likely to move into an area that is likely to flood.

回到最初的‘粪便天使’问题——你怎么看纽约市这场‘粪便天使’运动？

So getting back to our original poop angel question, what do you think about this poop angel movement in New York City?

这些人四处捡拾粪便。

These people going around picking it up.

是净收益还是净损失？

Net gain or net negative?

在

In

在这场我丈夫似乎帮助了成千上万狗主人处理狗屎的传奇事件中，我认为确实存在道德风险或外部性问题。

the course of this saga where my husband was helping thousands, it seems, of dog owners dispose of their dog's poop, I think there really was a moral hazard or externality problem.

我认为养狗的理念不仅是要遛狗、跟着它、捡起它的粪便、装进塑料袋并系好。

I think the idea when you have a dog is not only that you're supposed to walk it, follow it around, pick up its feces, put it in a plastic bag, tie it up.

但我想，你最不该做的最后一件事就是把它扔进自家的垃圾桶。

But the last thing you're supposed to do, I think, is put it in your own trash.

对吧？

Right?

你好。

Hello.

达克沃斯家不是来收狗屎的。

The Duckworths are not here to collect your poop.

所以这是给聪明人的忠告。

So words to the wise.

在你准备摆好小垃圾桶或为那些不顾他人的狗主人做任何安排之前，要意识到你这是在给他们制造逃避最终责任的动机。

Before you go and set up your little trash can or do whatever you're gonna do for the inconsiderate dog owners, be aware that you are gonna create an incentive for them to shirk their final responsibility.

我只是想提醒所有疫情期间养狗的人，把狗屎带回家。

I just wanna remind all the pandemic puppy owners, bring it home.

好的。

Okay.

我听到你的痛苦了。

So I hear your pain.

真的。

I really do.

但费城就不能放些垃圾桶在街角吗？

But can Philadelphia not just get some garbage cans, put them on the corner?

显然不行。

Apparently not.

我住在纽约。

I live in New York.

我养了条狗。

I have a dog.

我很多朋友都养狗。

Many of my friends have dogs.

我们遛狗时很简单。

When we take the dog out, it's pretty simple.

牵引绳上挂着装便便袋的小容器。

You have attached to the leash a little container with poop bags.

这又不是什么复杂科学。

It's not complicated science.

要是你家狗拉了，弯腰捡起来就行。

If and when your dog poops, you bend over, you pick it up.

就是狗主人们常做的那个把袋子翻过来的动作。

You do that whole, like, inside out bag move that I see the dog owners do.

你把它当手套套上，打个结，熟能生巧，甚至会觉得这事挺解压。

You make it a glove, tie it, becomes second nature, becomes almost a satisfying thing to do.

重点在'甚至'上。

Emphasis here on the almost.

但不管怎样，我不会把它带进大楼乘电梯上楼，然后扔进厨房垃圾桶。

But, anyway, I don't then carry it inside my building up the elevator and put it in my kitchen trash.

有些城市有一种设施，他们称之为街边的垃圾桶，实际上就是让你把垃圾扔在那里。

There's a thing in some cities where they have what they call garbage cans on the streets where you're actually supposed to just throw your stuff away.

在纽约的土地上。

In the land Of New York.

不。

No.

我不知道。

I don't know.

费城，也许我们可以让你了解一下这种公共垃圾桶的情况。

Philadelphia, maybe we can bring you up to speed on this public trash can situation.

好吧，让我们在这点上达成一致。

Well, let's agree on this.

狗是好的。

Dogs are good.

我们也可以同意狗会排便，还可以同意市政部门——费城你在听吗——需要在街角放置更多垃圾桶。

We can also agree that dogs poop, and we can agree that municipalities, are you listening, Philadelphia, need to put more trash cans on the corner.

我认为这些都是生活中的好法则。

I think those are good laws for life.

但如果他们做不到，那么知道达克沃斯家住在哪里是件好事，你可以把粪便带到他们家。

But if they can't, then it's good to know where the Duckworths live, and you can bring your poop to them.

实际上，这样如何？

In fact, what about this?

这是个典型的勒温式观点。

Here's a very Lewinian idea.

与其对抗狗主人普遍存在的随地留便倾向，不如设法利用这种行为，将缺陷转化为优势。

Rather than fighting the inclination that seems common, which is for dog owners to leave poop, maybe just look for a way to harness the existing behavior and somehow turn that deficit into a benefit.

比如？

Like how?

根据我大量阅读的资料，狗粪在某些用途上是相当好的肥料——但不适用于你食用的作物，因为狗粪可能传播寄生虫和传染病。

So from what I've read about dog poop, and that's plainly quite a lot, it's a pretty good fertilizer for some uses, not for crops that you're going to eat because dog waste can transmit parasites and infectious disease.

不能用于可能摄入的作物，但经过适当堆肥处理后，它其实是植被恢复和景观美化的优质土壤改良剂。

You don't wanna use it to fertilize anything you might eat or drink, but it's apparently a good soil additive for, like, revegetation and landscaping once it's properly composted.

所以狗粪可以变肥料。

So dog poop could become fertilizer.

或许关键在于通过补贴狗粪肥料孵化器或初创企业，来激励人们收集狗粪。

So maybe the trick here is to incentivize the collection of dog poop by maybe subsidizing a dog poop as fertilizer incubator or startup.

这样就能借助私营部门的力量。

And you harness the power of the private sector.

正是如此。

Exactly.

粪便天使可以转型为粪便天使投资人，皆大欢喜。

A poop angel could become a poop angel investor, and everybody's happy.

不过

Still

来到《没有愚蠢的问题》节目——选择人生伴侣、决定是否生育、还是找到更高人生目标，哪个更重要？

to come on No Stupid Questions, which is more significant, choosing a life partner, deciding whether or not to have kids, or identifying a greater purpose?

你嫁给了杰森。

You're married to Jason.

我娶了艾伦，我们俩幸福得像傻瓜一样。

I'm married to Ellen, and we're both happy as crap.

我想这足以证明。

I think that proves it.

科学赢了。

Science wins.

为科学加一分。

Plus one for science.

史蒂文，我们有一位名叫Colin Liu的听众提问。

Steven, we have a question from a listener named Colin Liu.

问题在这里。

Here it is.

我之前和朋友聊到你们俩做过的一期节目，关于你们被问过的最佳问题。

I was having a conversation with one of my friends about a previous episode the two of you had done around the best question you've ever been asked.

我不记得了。

I don't remember that.

你呢？

Do you?

我们被问过的最佳问题？

The best question we'd ever been asked?

我想...

I think

我们做过一期关于最佳面试问题的节目。

we did an episode on the best interview question.

哦，像是工作面试那种。

Oh, like job interviews.

是啊。

Yeah.

我记得那期。

I remember that.

好吧。

Alright.

所以，科林，给你扣一分，但我们真的很喜欢你的邮件。

So, Colin, minus one for you, But we really liked your email.

你说这让我们思考，一个人一生中能做出的最有力或最重要的单一选择是什么？

You said that got us thinking, what is the single most powerful or significant choice a human being can make in their life?

哇。

Wow.

我觉得答案其实很简单，就是是否要捡别人家狗的便便。

I mean, I think it's pretty easy, really, which is whether or not to pick up someone else's dog poop.

相当明显啊，科林，真的。

Quite obvious, Colin, actually.

头发是左分还是右分，我觉得这才是显而易见的选择。

Whether to part your hair on the left or right, I think, is the obvious choice.

好吧。

Alright.

所以你是要我认真起来吗？

So you want me to be serious?

在我尝试回答这个问题之前，我得先像犹太法典学者那样稍微梳理一下。

Before I try to give an answer to this question, I have to talmudically untangle it a tiny bit.

好吧。

Alright.

去告诉他吧

Go tell him it on

我。

me.

只因为他用了两个我认为都恰当但含义不同的词——他问的是人类一生中能做出的最重大或最具影响力的选择是什么。

Only because he used two words that I think are both appropriate words, but they're not the same word, which is to say he asked what's the most significant or powerful choice that a human can make in their life.

所以可以从多种角度解读。

So one could interpret those in many ways.

按我的理解，'重大'更多关乎个人生活的结果或身边人的影响，而'最具影响力'则暗示可能试图改变成千上万甚至数十亿人的命运。

The way I would read it, significant would be more about your own outcome, the outcome of your own life or maybe those around you, whereas the most powerful choice would again, this is just how I would read it, would imply that you're maybe trying to influence the outcome of others, potentially thousands, millions, even billions of others.

举例来说，重大选择可能是是否要孩子，而影响力选择可能是是否要生出一个希特勒那样的孩子。

So I guess if you're thinking significant choice, it might be something like whether you're going to have children, whereas powerful choice might be whether to have a child that turns out to be Adolf Hitler.

这是个微妙的区别。

That is a nuanced distinction.

在讨论答案前还有一点细微差别。

Here's one more slight distinction before we talk about answers.

我认为这个问题比表面看起来更难回答，因为它暗示选择后结果就必然注定。

I also think the question is harder to answer than it might appear because it implies that you make a choice, and then the choice essentially guarantees an outcome.

即便这选择像是决定结婚、与谁共结连理、是否生育子女、子女未来会成为怎样的人，或是职业选择等等。

Even if it's like the choice to marry and whom to marry or to have children and what those children turn out to be or your vocation or whatnot.

然而实际上，世界远比这更充满变数，他人的选择或行为总会干扰你自己的决定。

Whereas, in fact, the world is a bit more random than that, and other people's choices or actions will interfere with your own.

假设你认为人生中最重大、最具影响力的选择莫过于挑选合适的终身伴侣。

Let's say you argue that the most significant or powerful choice you can make is choosing the right life partner.

再假设你与自认为最理想的人选结为夫妻，结果对方却罹患癌症离世。

And let's say you get married to someone who you think is the best possible choice, and then that person gets cancer and dies.

难道这会让你的选择显得不够明智吗？

Does that make your choice less good somehow?

没错。

Right.

但我认为更关键的是，我不相信任何单一选择能确保具备你所期待的那种决定性力量。

But I think the bigger issue is I don't think any one choice you make can be guaranteed to have the significance or power that you think.

换句话说，你认为当人们思考最重要的人生选择时，实际上可能是在期待最重要的人生结果。

So in other words, you're thinking that when people think of the most important life choice, they're probably actually thinking the most important life outcome.

对吧？

Right?

因为选择与结果并非同一回事，而我们并不能完全掌控结果。

Because choices and outcomes are not the same thing, and we don't have control over the outcomes entirely.

确实。

Right.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

当我收到科林的问题时，我做了每个有自尊心的科学家都会做的事——创建了一个推特投票。

When I got Colin's question, I did what every self respecting scientist would do, which is I create a Twitter poll.

顺便说，这其实不是科学家该做的事，但我能随时访问我的推特动态，所以就把问题发出去了。

That's actually, by the way, not what a scientist should do, but I had ready access to my Twitter feed, and I posted the question.

我很喜欢你认为我们可能会觉得你无法随时访问推特动态。

I love that you think we might assume you don't have ready access to your Twitter feed.

呃，其实没那么简单，因为我总忘记密码。

Well, it's not trivial because I keep forgetting my password.

我还以为你是说因为滥用推特太多次，同事不让你碰它了呢。

I thought you were saying it's that you've abused it so much that your colleagues keep you away from it.

没那么深刻的原因啦。

Nothing deep like that.

懂了。

Gotcha.

不过，总之我是这么写的。

But, anyway, this is what I wrote.

请回复。

Please reply.

人类一生中能做出的最有力/最重要的单一选择是什么？

What is the single most powerful slash significant choice a human being can make in their life?

然后我收到了450条回复

And I got 450 replies

哇。

Wow.

既然如此，这并不科学。

Which then this is not scientific.

这算是半科学吧。

This is scientific ish.

我让研究协调员进行了分类并按主题整理。

I had a research coordinator categorize and sort into themes.

我还咨询了几位科学家朋友。

I also asked a few scientist friends.

事实上，三种最常见的回应类型——这些分类不分先后——第一个是你提到的关于是否要孩子的问题。

And in fact, the three most popular types of respond the categories of response, these are not in order, but the first of these, kids or not, which you had mentioned.

我咨询了顶尖决策科学家凯莉·莫维奇，这是她的回答之一。

I asked Carrie Morwidge, who's a leading decision scientist, and that was one of Carrie's responses.

第二个是择偶选择。

Second one was choice of mate.

耶鲁大学的尼古拉斯·克里斯塔基斯特别写道：人生伴侣通常是在二十多岁时选定的。

Nicholas Christakis from Yale University, he wrote specifically, the life partner one selects typically in one's twenties.

抱歉。

Sorry.

具体来说。

Specific.

最后一个是人生目标。

And the last one was purpose.

一位名叫健三的受访者说：人类一生中最有力的选择，就是决定如何回馈世界。

So one response from someone named Kenzo said, the single most powerful choice a human being can make in their life is how they choose to give back to the world.

人类因涌现而繁荣。

Humans flourish because of emergence.

独处时，我们既有限又脆弱。

Alone, we are limited and weak.

团结时，我们所有共同的希望与梦想突然都成为可能。

Together, all of our collective hopes and dreams suddenly become possible.

总之，我手头有些小数据。

So, anyway, I have a little data.

再次说明，这些数据不像正规科学实验那样系统收集，但有趣的是我并没有收到450种完全不同的回答。

Again, not as systematically collected as in a real science experiment, but I think it's interesting that I didn't get 450 totally different responses.

答案都集中在孩子、伴侣和人生目标这三个方面。

There was this convergence on kids, mate, and purpose.

这确实很有道理。

So that makes a lot of sense.

我们这里也存在选择偏差问题，因为受访者都是会回复安杰拉·达克沃斯推特的人。

We're also working with a little bit of a selection bias here in that these are people who respond to the Twitter feed of Angela Duckworth.

不能代表全人类样本。

Not a representative sample of humanity.

另外稍微 cynical 地说，可能也存在一些 virtue signaling（美德信号），特别是我配偶也关注同个推特时，我可以说'选择伴侣'这件事上我做了超棒的选择。

And also, just to be slightly cynical, there may be a little bit of virtue signaling going on here, especially if my spouse happens to follow the same Twitter feed, and I can say, well, choice of mate, and I made a heck of a choice.

但我的意思是，人们会这么说确实很有道理，因为这些选择或事件在人生中都是高风险的。

But, I mean, it makes a great deal of sense that people would say these things because these are relatively high stakes choices or events in one human life.

是否选择人生伴侣及选择谁，是否要孩子以及如何与子女相处——这些都会影响你与他们的关系。

Whether to have a life mate and who that life mate is, whether to have children, and how those children may turn out your relationship with them.

这些都很有道理，我对此并无异议。

That all makes a lot of sense, and I have nothing against those.

我想说，如果要我诚实地回答科林的问题，选择伴侣是极其重要的。

I guess I would say if I had to answer Colin's question honestly for myself, choice of mate, super important.

但你知道，我之所以说它重要，可能是因为我觉得自己做得不错。

But, you know, I probably say it's important because I think I did well.

如果我做得不好，我可能会说这没那么重要。

If I didn't do well, I'd probably say it wasn't that important.

嗯，我不确定那是否很糟糕。

Well, I don't know if it was terrible.

是啊。

Yeah.

你可以

You could

走另一条路。

go the other way.