57. 哪些激励措施最能有效提升疫苗接种率，原因何在？

我可能是在编造，但我很确定这话里有几分道理。

I may be making that up, but I'm pretty sure it's got a germ of truth to it.

我是安吉拉·达克沃斯。

I'm Angela Duckworth.

我是史蒂文·杜布纳。

I'm Steven Dubner.

你正在收听《无愚蠢问题》。

And you're listening to No Stupid Questions.

今天在节目中，什么样的激励措施能提高疫苗接种率？

Today on the show, what sort of incentives increase vaccination take up?

如果他们愿意让我参加一个可能赢一百万美元的抽奖，那情况一定很糟糕。

If they're willing to enter me in a lottery that might pay me a million dollars, it must be really bad.

此外，你更想要飞行的能力还是隐身的能力？

Also, would you rather have the power of flight or invisibility?

这是一个你永远无法真正实现的假设性问题

This is a hypothetical question that you can never actually

执行。

execute.

我前几天刚从火柴盒背面订购了一件隐形斗篷。

I did order an invisibility cloak just the other day from the back of the matchbook.

所以，安吉拉，你协助领导的行为改变联盟‘为了更好的行为改变’最近开展了一项大型研究，试图找出如何让更多人接种疫苗。

So, Angela, the behavior change consortium that you help lead, Behavior Change for Good, recently did a big study trying to figure out how to get more people to get vaccines.

这项研究是在新冠疫苗问世前进行的，因此实际实验是鼓励人们接种流感疫苗，而不是新冠疫苗，因为那时新冠疫苗尚未问世。

Now this was in anticipation of a COVID nineteen vaccine, so the actual experiment was encouraging people to get the flu vaccine, not the COVID vaccine, which wasn't ready yet.

对。

Right.

据我所知，研究发现大多数方法效果都不太好，但有一种方法非常成功，那就是当人们收到短信，告知他们已预留了一剂疫苗或疫苗已备好等待他们。

As I've read, the research found that most efforts didn't work that well, but there was one that was really successful, which was when people got a text saying that a vaccine dose is reserved for you or waiting for you.

我到目前为止理解得对吗？

Do I have that right so far?

你基本说对了。

You have it mostly right.

并不是大多数方法效果都不好。

It's not that most things didn't do so well.

这些方法作为一个整体实际上效果非常好，但你说得对，确实有一种特定类型的信息表现得比其他所有方法都更好。

These things actually, as a group, worked really well, but you're right that there was a particular kind of message that performed better than the rest.

所以这些本质上是搭便车式的信息。

So these are essentially piggyback messages.

这些是已经要去看医生的人，你告诉他们，既然去了，就应该考虑接种疫苗。

These are people who are already going to a doctor, and you're saying while you're there, you should consider getting the vaccine.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

对。

Correct.

所以我看到效果最差的一种提示是一个笑话。

So I did see that one of the worst performing nudges was a joke.

如果我理解错了请纠正我，但这是我从文章中读到的内容。

Correct me if I'm wrong, but here's what I'm reading from the article.

一只狗给一只猫讲了个笑话。

A dog tells a joke to a cat.

你听过关于流感的笑话吗？

Did you hear the joke about the flu?

算了。

Never mind.

我不想到处传播它。

I don't wanna spread it around.

所以当我读到这个时，我想，等等。

So when I read that, I thought, wait a minute.

是笑话本身不起作用，还是这个笑话太糟糕了，让我怀疑你从哪儿找来这个笑话的？

Is it that a joke doesn't work or is that the joke is terrible and made me wonder where you got this joke?

这个笑话是你写的吗？

Did you write that joke?

没有冒犯的意思。

No offense.

我没有。

I did not.

我甚至不确定是否应该透露这些科学家的身份。

I'm not even sure I should divulge the identities of the scientists behind that.

哦，好吧，你已经说够多了。

Oh, well, you've just said enough.

这个笑话的背后是科学家。

It was scientists behind the joke.

换句话说，这不是专业喜剧作家写的。

It wasn't a professional comedy writer, in other words.

是的。

Yeah.

科学家们觉得这个笑话特别有趣，史蒂文。

Scientists thought that this was extraordinarily funny, Steven.

我们觉得，幽默或许是一种吸引人们注意并让他们进入良好心态的方式。

And we thought that maybe humor would be a way to grab people's attention and put them in the right mood.

这就像一场竞赛，科学家们彼此竞争，看谁提出的改变行为的点子最好。

This is like a tournament where scientists are effectively competing against each other to see who has the best idea for changing behavior.

当我看到这个参赛作品时，我想，哇。

And when I saw this entry, I thought, wow.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

这可能会赢。

This could be a winner.

但实际上，它却是大输家之一。

And it was one of the big losers, actually.

但我们应该说，这并不能证明幽默无效。

But we should say it doesn't prove that humor doesn't work.

它只是证明了这个幽默作品没有奏效。

It just proves that that piece of humor didn't work.

没错。

Correct.

但我们还做了一些分析，表明这些短信如果采用一种更随意、更非正式、更具互动性的语气，比如让人回复短信，这种沟通方式实际上并不可取。

But we also did some analysis suggest that the more these text messages take a kind of casual tone, something that's more informal, something that's more interactive, like text back, that general line of communication is not actually the way to go.

有意思。

Interesting.

所以当人们收到一条短信，说他们的疫苗剂量已经预留或正在等待他们时，你认为为什么这条信息有效？

So when people get a text that says a vaccine dose is reserved for you or waiting for you, why do you think that one was effective?

简而言之，我们不知道，但我们猜测，当你告诉某人他们的疫苗接种名额已经预留时。

In short, we don't know, but we are guessing when you tell someone that they're shot is reserved for them.

这可能有效的一个原因是，它暗示了你本来就会去做这件事。

One reason why that might be effective is that it implies that you are already going to do it.

这是一种默认设置。

It's a default.

换句话说，这就是你如果不主动采取行动改变方向时就会默认发生的事。而行为科学的大量研究告诉我们，默认设置具有极其强大的影响力。

In other words, the thing that you are going to do if you don't take action to change course And we know from tons of research in behavioral science that defaults are enormously powerful.

在很多情况下，人们由于惯性或懒惰，不会主动选择加入，但也不会主动退出。

And a lot of people, through inertia, through laziness, in other circumstances, wouldn't actively opt into it but are not going to opt out of it.

所以，默认效应的心理学可能是其中一个原因，当然还有其他原因。

So the psychology of defaults is perhaps one reason why, and there are others.

我可以猜猜其他几个原因吗？

Can I guess as to a few others?

是的。

Yeah.

我很想听听你的想法，因为我们真的不清楚。

I'd love to hear what you think because we really don't know.

这显然是一条个性化的短信。

So it is obviously a personal text.

它在说：这是给你的。

It's saying this is for you.

这让我想到，也许这类信息迎合了我们每个人内心深处的自恋倾向。

That did make me wonder if perhaps that sort of message appeals to the narcissist in all of us.

就像，哦，这是给我的。

Like, oh, it is for me.

你很特别。

You're special.

比如，史蒂文，我不了解其他人，但对你来说。

Like, Steven, I don't know about these other people, but for you.

是的。

Yeah.

我还想到了禀赋效应，这和你说的有点类似，就是这件东西本来就属于你，因此它对你有价值，因为它是你的。

I also wondered about the endowment effect, which is a little bit like what you're saying, which is this thing is already there for you, and therefore, it has value because it is yours.

你不想失去它，因为不做这件事就像失去了你原本拥有的东西。

And you don't wanna lose it because not doing it would be like losing something you had.

没错。

Exactly.

我想到的第三件事是损失厌恶。

And that was the third thing I wondered about was loss aversion.

就像，这是我的。

Like, this is mine.

如果我不去拿，我就得不到它了。

And if I don't go, I won't have it.

我觉得这些猜测都非常好，史蒂文。

I think those are all excellent guesses, Steven.

我特别喜欢其中一个，我不确定是否该称之为自恋，但人们可能会从中推断出，他们正受到特别的关注，而不是一个普通的请求。

I especially like the one I don't know if I would call it narcissism or just the idea that people might infer from this that there is some special attention being paid to them, that it's not a generic request.

我也想提出，也许人们在想知道，如果他们不拿走这个东西，它会怎么样。

I wanna also suggest that perhaps people are wondering what happens to this thing if they don't take it.

对我来说，最强大的心理因素是，某样东西被扔掉并浪费了，无论是我冰箱里的蔬菜，还是其他任何东西。

I mean, for me, the most powerful psychology is that something gets thrown out and is wasted, be it a vegetable in my refrigerator or anything.

我会不遗余力地确保任何有价值的东西都不会被浪费。

I would go to great lengths to make sure that something, whatever it was of value, didn't get wasted.

所以我认为，这可能是我们提到的所有因素的某种组合。

So I think it could be actually some combination of all the things that we mentioned.

科学家们倾向于一次只研究一件事。

And scientists tend to like to study things one at a time.

这让我们感觉到自己正在触及真正的根本原因。

That gives us the sense that we're getting to the true root causes.

但事实上，任何有效的方法很可能是因为多重原因才起作用的。

But in reality, anything that works is probably working for multiple reasons.

你给出的关于为什么这有效的首要解释，让我想到了另一种不同的激励方式，那就是关怀。

The primary explanation that you give for why this works makes me think of a different sort of incentive, which is caring.

它让我觉得有人在关心我，这让我觉得这是一种非常强大的动机。

It makes me feel like someone cares for me, and that struck me as just a very powerful motivator.

如果这种动机正是促使更多人在收到短信说‘有一剂疫苗已为你预留，正在等你’时去接种疫苗的原因，我不禁想知道，这种我称之为‘关怀激励’的方式，还能如何应用于其他亲社会行为甚至个人目的。

And if that is the motivation that was driving more people to get the vaccine when they got the text that said a dose was reserved for me, waiting for me, It did make me wonder how else this sort of incentive, the caring incentive as I'm calling it, might be applied for other prosocial or even individual purposes.

我认为，即使在医疗保健领域，这也是一个极好的方向。

I think that's an excellent direction to take even within health care.

在过去的几十年里，我们都一直在抱怨，医学已经从你与医生之间那种一对一、花四十五分钟与你坐下来处理问题、建立多年关系的模式，变成了现在这种工业化的体系。

We've all been complaining over the last few decades as medicine has gone from your personal relationship with the doctor who spends forty five minutes to sit with you and deal with your problems, has a relationship that extends over years.

现在我们感觉就像进入了一个流水线，打卡上班，打卡下班。

And now we feel like we're in this industrial complex where you clock in, you clock out.

你不知道提供服务的人会是谁。

You don't know who the provider is gonna be.

可能是你的医生，但也可能是这个联盟中的其他人，因为这样效率能提高2%。

It could be your doctor, but it could be somebody else in this consortium because that's 2% more efficient.

我认为，这种关怀的理念，也许正是我们通过一个由机器人发出的短信有效传达出来的。

And I think this idea of caring is maybe something that we effectively signaled in what was, by the way, a text message sent out by a robot.

所以，也许我们只是触及了所有人内心对个人关怀关注的渴望。

So maybe we are just tapping into that craving that we all have for some personal caring attention.

如今，许多医生经常抱怨的是，他们的大量工作都是在屏幕上完成的，他们要阅读电子病历。

A common complaint among a lot of doctors these days is that so much of their work is done on a screen where they're reading an electronic medical record

并且要录入电子病历。

And entering an electronic medical record.

他们抱怨自己成了严重过度受过教育的数据录入员。

They complain about being deeply overqualified data entry clerks.

但最糟糕的是，他们在治疗病人时却盯着屏幕，他们不喜欢这样。

But the worst part is they're looking at the screen while they're treating the patient, and they don't like that.

大多数医生都希望与患者互动。

Most doctors want to engage with the patient.

但阅读了这项研究及其个性化设计后，让我想到一个简单的例子：如果我是医生，而你，安吉，是患者，也许我可以做的一件事是，不要让屏幕只对着我而背对你，而是设法将屏幕投射出来，醒目地显示你的名字。

But reading about this research and the personalization of it, it made me think of something as simple as if I'm the doc and you, Angie, are the patient, maybe one thing I could do is rather than have the screen just facing me away from you, maybe I can somehow project the screen and show your name prominently on it.

史蒂文，你说到点子上了。

Steven, you are hitting a nerve here.

我最近带女儿去看病时，医生的布置和往常一样。

I was recently at an appointment with my daughter, and the doctor's setup was what it always is.

有一张桌子，椅子面对桌子，医生面对电脑。

There's a desk, and the chair faces the desk, and the doctor faces the computer.

而患者则坐在医生身后。

And then behind that is the patient.

医生偶尔会转过身来，跟坐在检查台上的孩子说几句话。

Occasionally, the doctor will turn around and talk to the child who's sitting there on the examining table.

我觉得这简直是世界上最糟糕的心理空间设计。

And I found this to be the worst kind of psychological architecture there could be.

你实际上是背对着一个可能正在经历情绪波动、甚至感到焦虑的人，这几乎让建立个人联系变得不可能。

You literally have your back to somebody who is perhaps going through some emotions at the time, perhaps has anxiety, And it almost makes a personal connection impossible.

研究表明，而且我们从经验中也知道，直接的眼神交流和面对对方更有利于沟通。

We know from research, but we also just know from experience that direct eye contact and facing somebody is better for communication.

所以我倡导。

So I advocate.

我游说。

I lobby.

如果你们要组织一次游行，我甚至愿意参加。

I would even go to a march if you wanted to organize this.

为了公平起见，我并不责怪任何医生采用这种设置，因为我和我认识的每一位医生——无论是朋友还是专业同行——都发现他们其实都讨厌这种安排，但似乎他们都被迫接受了这种结构。

Just to be fair, I don't blame any physician for this setup because every single one that I've ever spoken to, friends or professionally, they all seem to hate it, but it seems that this is the structure that they've been herded into.

我们不禁要问，为什么医生办公室里的血压读数通常比其他地方高得多。

And, you know, we wonder why blood pressure readings in doctor's offices tend to typically be much higher than elsewhere.

真的吗？

Is that right?

我可能是在编造，但我很确定这里面有几分道理。

I may be making that up, but I'm pretty sure it's got a germ of truth to it.

所以我可能错了，但我清楚记得曾听说过一项研究，指出通过一个极其简单的改变——给医生配备一名数据录入助手，就能提升患者护理质量，甚至减轻医生的职业倦怠。

So I could be wrong, but I certainly remember hearing about a study where the quality of patient care and maybe even the decrease in physician burnout could be executed through a completely simple change, which is to give a doctor a data entry assistant.

他们不需要拥有很高的学历，但可以承担一些文书工作。

They don't have to have really any advanced degrees, but they could take over some of these clerical responsibilities.

我认为我们上医学院并不是为了学习这些。

I don't think we go to medical school to learn.

所以让我再多问你一点关于你的研究和这种提示信息的事。

So let me ask you a little bit more about this research of yours and this nudge text.

我想请你谈谈你如何评价这种效应的强度。

I'd like you to talk about how you would characterize the magnitude of the effect.

我在这里读到，对照组中接种流感疫苗的人比例是42%。

So I read here, the proportion of people in the control group who got a flu shot was forty two percent.

‘为你保留’的提示将这一比例提高了4.6个百分点。

The reserved for you nudge raised that figure by 4.6 percentage points.

对。

Right.

上升到百分之四十六点六。

Going up to forty six point six.

所以我可以想象，两个人看到这些数字时会有不同的看法。

So I could imagine two different people looking at those numbers in two different ways.

一个人可能会说，发一条个性化短信后，提升4.6个百分点，这算不了什么，也许根本不值得。

One might say, well, four point six percentage points when they get a personalized text, not that big a deal, maybe not even worth it.

而另一个人可能会说，天啊。

And someone else looking at it might say, oh my goodness.

仅仅因为一条免费的机器人短信，就提升了4.6个百分点？

4.6 percentage points just for a free robo text?

这太惊人了。

That's huge.

你怎么看？

How do you look at it?

我觉得这影响巨大。

I think of it as huge.

我从事改变人类行为的行业已经足够久了，深知改变人类行为真的很难。

I've been in the business of changing human behavior for long enough to realize that human behavior is really hard to change.

如果你能以几乎为零的成本做到这一点，而且没有人受到伤害，对我来说，这是一个巨大而重要的效果。

And if you can do it at almost zero cost and nobody's harmed, it's to me a huge and important effect.

这些就是助推。

Those are nudges.

助推，我们喜欢它们，因为它们既有效、又简单、还便宜。

And nudges, which we love because they can be effective and they can be easy and they're cheap.

而且它们保留了自主性。

And they preserve autonomy.

确实如此。

They do indeed.

但说实话，它们并不能把行为从完全负面彻底转变为完全正面，从A到Z。

But let's be honest, they don't change behavior from black to white, from a to z.

它们可能会把行为从a改变到b，有时甚至从a改变到c。

They might change behavior from a to b or maybe even from a to c sometimes.

但这种改变的幅度通常并不大，对它们的一种批评是：嘿。

But the magnitude of the change is typically not that large, and one critique of them would be, hey.

助推，很棒。

Nudges, great.

当然。

Sure.

我们能在用的时候就用。

Let's use them when we can.

但如果你真的想改变行为，就必须考虑更强或更大的激励措施。

But if you really wanna move behavior, you have to think about stronger or larger incentives.

所以目前在新冠疫苗方面，我们看到许多人——尤其是政界人士——在呼吁巨额经济激励，比如百万美元抽奖。

So with the COVID nineteen vaccine right now, we are seeing a bunch of people, particularly politicians, invoking large financial incentives, a million dollar lottery.

此外，还有负面激励措施，比如如果不接种疫苗，就不被允许进入某些场所。

Or there are also negative incentives, like not being allowed into certain places if you don't have a vaccine.

所以，我们假设安吉拉·达克沃斯明天被任命为新冠疫苗接种完成事务总管。

So let's imagine that Angela Duckworth were appointed COVID nineteen vaccination completion czar tomorrow.

你的工具箱中，助推手段占多大比例？你又会多大程度上依赖更强的激励措施？

What share of your arsenal is comprised of nudges, and how much do you rely on bigger incentives?

很高兴你用了‘工具箱’这个词，因为在新冠这样的危机中，关键在于‘两者兼有’，而不是‘非此即彼’。

Well, I'm very glad you gave me an arsenal because I think the name of the game in a crisis like COVID is both and, not either or.

我认为，这些无成本的助推手段根本不能成为反对强制措施或激励措施的理由。

I don't think that these costless nudges are at all an argument against either mandates or incentives.

那我们来谈谈这两类措施。

So let's talk about those two categories.

强制措施，通常被统称为‘硬性家长主义’。

Mandates, that's what's often referred to collectively as hard paternalism.

我认为‘除非你接种了疫苗，否则不能进入这里’，当然，个案中会有一些例外情况。

I think the you can't come here unless you're vaccinated, and there are, of course, exceptions that would be made on a case by case basis.

我完全支持这一点。

I'm all for that.

我得认真想想，才会觉得某个机构没有权利强制要求接种疫苗。

I'd have to actually think hard about a situation where I don't think that's the right of the institution to mandate vaccination.

现在有一些激励措施，比如我听说Krispy Kreme曾推出过一项促销活动：出示疫苗接种卡就可以免费获得一个甜甜圈。

Now there's incentives that can take the form of, I think Krispy Kreme had a promotion where you show your vaccine card, they give you a free doughnut.

还有像抽奖或彩票这样的形式，比如有一百万美元的抽奖活动。

And then there are these raffles or lotteries where there's a sweepstakes of a million dollars.

你提到了持久的行为改变。

You mentioned behavior change for good.

我们正在费城推出一项这样的活动。

We're launching one right here in Philadelphia.

我也支持这些措施。

So I'm thumbs up on those as well.

我知道很多人强烈支持抽奖或彩票的方式，但我也知道有一位行为科学家乔治·洛温斯坦曾写过文章，讨论激励措施可能适得其反的可能性。

I know there's a strong pro raffle or lottery argument, but then I do know that one behavioral scientist, George Lowenstein, has written about the possibility of incentives backfiring.

对吧？

Right?

这个想法是，哦，如果他们愿意让我参与一个可能赢取一百万美元的抽奖来打疫苗，那这疫苗一定很糟糕。

The idea that, oh, if they're willing to enter me in a lottery that might pay me a million dollars to get this vaccine, it must be really bad.

那你对此怎么看？

So where do you come down on that?

听好了。

Look.

任何事情都有利有弊，你只是想让好处超过坏处。

Everything has a plus and a minus, and you're just trying to get the pluses to outweigh the minuses.

乔治大约十年前做过一些研究，探讨激励某种行为可能带来的负面影响。

George did some research about a decade ago on what the downsides would be of incentivizing a certain behavior.

他在一系列实验中发现，当你付给人们很多钱去做某件事时，他们确实会去做，但可能会因为你是付钱才做的，而推断出这件事风险更高。

And what he found in a series of experiments was that when you pay people a lot to do something, they will do it, comma, and they might infer from the fact that you paid them that there is higher risk.

这有点像你对孩子说：‘如果你吃西兰花，就给你吃冰淇淋。’

It's kind of like when you say to a kid, you can have ice cream if you eat your broccoli.

你知道，孩子现在会对冰淇淋和西兰花的性质有什么想法？

You know, what is the kid now thinking about the nature of ice cream and broccoli?

很明显，西兰花不可能那么好。

Like, obviously, broccoli can't be that great.

不然我妈妈也不会用甜点来贿赂我。

Otherwise, my mom wouldn't be bribing me with dessert.

所以确实存在这样的负面影响。

So there can be that downside.

问题是，这个负面因素是否大于正面因素？

The question is, is that negative larger than the positive?

我认为，人们对疫苗风险的看法在很大程度上是不理性的，或者基于错误信息。

And I think the beliefs about the risks of the vaccine are, to a large extent, irrational or based on misinformation.

从大局来看，好处是，管他呢？

And in the grand scheme of things, the positive of, like, oh, what the heck?

但我可能赢一百万美元。

But I could win a million dollars.

在我看来，这个好处超过了坏处。

That pro outweighs that con in my judgment.

你对这些不同激励措施的有效性了解多少？

What do you know about the efficacy of these different incentives?

因为我知道，在民意调查和问卷中，人们表示如果给予大额经济激励，他们更有可能接种疫苗。

Because I know that in polling and surveys, people say that that they would be much more likely to get a vaccine if they're given a large financial incentive.

但正如我们所知，调查数据并不总是能转化为实际行为。

But as we know, survey data doesn't always translate into actual behavior.

我们还没有结果，甚至还没有启动费城的计划。

We don't have results yet, and we haven't even launched our Philadelphia initiative.

即使你真的启动了这样的项目，其中一个难以判断的原因是，你很难轻易找到对照组。

One of the things that makes it hard to know, even when you do launch one of these things, is that you don't have a control group in an easy way.

比如，加利福尼亚州有一个抽奖活动，但加利福尼亚州的对照组在哪里？

Like, the state of California has a lottery, but where's the control group for the state of California?

因此，在任何情况下，这都很难回答。

And so that makes it hard to answer under any circumstances.

但由于这些措施才刚刚推出，我们真的还不清楚。

But since they're just rolling out, we really don't know.

关于以往的抽奖研究，有大量的证据表明，它能够影响人们在健康相关行为上的表现，比如按时服药，以及几乎任何其他行为。

There's plenty of evidence on prior lottery studies to know that it can move behavior on health stuff like taking medications, but also on pretty much any behavior.

如果你看一下美国的地图，观察疫苗接种率高和低的地区，你会发现这几乎看起来像一张红州蓝州地图，蓝州的接种率要高得多。

So if you look at a map of The US and look at the areas and states where there's a high vaccination rate and low, it's starting to look pretty much like a red state blue state map with vaccination rates much higher in blue areas.

所以，我们就假设这与我们所看到的政治分歧或党派对立有关。

So let's just assume that that is connected to the political divide or partisanship that we're seeing.

我认为这是一个合理的假设。

I think that's a good assumption.

我也这么认为。

I would think so.

我的意思是，这并不一定成立。

I mean, it's not necessarily true.

你可以说这是因果关系，但因果方向可能恰恰相反：民主党人和共和党人只是更擅长招募那些已经持有特定信念的人，而不是让他们形成这些信念。

You could argue that it's causal, but that the arrow actually goes in the other direction, which is the Democrats and Republicans are just really good at recruiting people to their team who already have a set of beliefs as opposed to causing those beliefs.

但假设这种差距会持续存在，蓝州成人的疫苗接种率到夏天结束时可能达到百分之八十，甚至百分之九十，而红州则可能只有百分之四十或五十。

But let's say this is going to be a continuing gap between different areas and that the vaccination rate of adults in blue areas, let's say, gets to something like eighty percent by the end of the summer, maybe ninety percent, in red areas, like forty percent or fifty percent.

让我们假设你，安吉拉·达克沃斯，仍然是

And let's assume that you, Angela Duckworth, still are the czar of

我认为是扎里娜，史蒂文。

Zarina, I believe, Steven.

扎里娜。

Zarina.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

非常抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

所以你是美国全民疫苗接种计划的最高负责人扎里娜，你看着这张地图，认为有责任提升那些较低地区的接种率。

So you are the Zarina Suprema of total vaccination program of United States, and you look at this map and say, I believe it's my duty to raise the lower areas.

你会采取什么措施来提高接种率较低地区的水平？

What would you do to try to move that needle higher in the places where the rates are relatively low?

嗯，存在两种需求问题。

Well, there are two kinds of demand problems.

一种是人们不被说服认为疫苗是个好主意。

One is that people are not persuaded that the vaccine is a good idea.

他们觉得疫苗在某些方面有风险。

They think it's risky for some reason.

还有一种需求问题是，人们至少一定程度上想要疫苗，但一直没去打。

There's another kind of demand problem, which is that people do want the vaccine at least somewhat, but they haven't gotten around to it.

当我们谈论几个月甚至更久之后人们仍然没有接种时，这到底是说服问题还是执行问题呢？

So is it a persuasion problem or a follow through problem when we talk about months and months from now and people still haven't gotten it?

我认为这始终是一个混合问题。

I think it's always gonna be a mix.

我们的研究指出，人们常常把接种疫苗这样的事情视为纯粹的说服问题。

One of the things that our research suggests is that people think often of things like vaccination as being a 100% a persuasion problem.

但就像其他任何有益健康的行为一样，总存在意图与实际行动之间的执行差距。

But just like any other good for you behavior, there's always an element of a follow through gap between what you intend to do and what you do do.

比如服用心脏药物。

Take heart medication.

人们在经历心脏病发作后，会被开具他汀类药物，比如这类药物总体而言副作用很少，对大多数有医疗保险的人来说也是免费的。

After people have a heart attack and they are prescribed statins, for example, which are, in the grand scheme of things, relatively side effectless and for most people on health care plans, costless.

如果你服用这种药，你再次心脏病发作甚至死亡的可能性会大大降低。

And if you take this pill, you're very much less likely to have a second heart attack and die.

如果你问一个问题：到底有多少人真的在服用它？

If you ask a question like, how many people are actually taking it?

这些人都已经开始了服药，所以一年后他们不再服药，不是因为当初没被说服，我想大约有一半的人已经不再吃药了。

And these are people who started taking it, so they didn't have a persuasion from a year later, I think it's something like half of people are, like, no longer taking their meds.

这让我意识到，我们需要一方面以巧妙的方式加强说服，另一方面也要努力改善执行环节，让服药变得更简单、更有趣。

And that suggests to me that we will need to both work on persuasion in clever ways and at the same time, be working on follow through, ways to make it easy, ways to make it fun.

所以，也许那个玩笑的想法是对的，只是选错了笑话。

So maybe the joke idea was right, but it was just the wrong joke.

一旦你继续推进，面对那些固执不改的人时，如果能想出一个比‘狗和猫’笑话更好的幽默方式，幽默可能会非常有效。

And once you get down the road and there are the holdouts, maybe in that case, humor would be incredibly effective if you can come up with a better joke than the dog and cat joke.

如果走这条路，史蒂文，我们就不能指望行为科学家来编段子了。

Well, if we go that path, Steven, we will not be asking behavioral scientists to make up the punchlines.

接下来在《无厘头问题》节目中，你最想要的超能力揭示了你怎样的性格？

Still to come on no stupid questions, what does your most desired superpower say about you?

我永远不会投票选择隐身能力，因为我对自己使用这种超能力没有信心。

I am not going to vote for invisibility ever because I don't trust myself with that superpower.

嘿。

Hey.

史蒂文，我有个非常重要的问题想问你。

Steven, I have a really important question to ask you.

好的。

Okay.

你是更希望随时能隐身，还是拥有飞行的能力？

Would you rather have the ability to go invisible at will or the power to fly?

老生常谈的超能力问题了。

The old favorite superpower question.

哦，没错。

Oh, yes.

所以我认为第一个问题必须是为什么？

So I think the first question has to be why?

你什么意思为什么？

What do you mean why?

这是一个你永远无法实际执行的假设性问题。

This is a hypothetical question that you can never actually execute.

首先，我们并不确定情况就是这样。

First of all, we don't know that's the case.

好吧。

Okay.

因为我前几天刚从火柴盒背面订购了一件隐形斗篷。

Because I did order an invisibility cloak just the other day from the back of a matchbook.

那你是在等它和你的X光眼镜一起到货吗？

And you're waiting for it to come with your X-ray glasses.

没错。

Exactly.

所以事情是这样的。

So here's the thing.

我是希望拥有超能力让自己的生活更刺激、更有趣，还是希望拥有超能力尽可能为世界带来最大的好处？

Do I want the superpower to make my own life more exciting or interesting, or do I want the superpower to do the most good in the world as possible?

好吧，史蒂文，这个问题之所以如此精彩，是因为你可以往里面注入任何你想要的东西。

Well, Steven, the reason why this question is so awesome sauce is because you can bring whatever you want to it.

事实上，无论你是自私地回答还是利他地回答，这本身就是乐趣的一部分。

And in fact, if you answer this selfishly or pro socially, it is part of the fun here.

哦，所以你现在正在分析我，对吧？

Oh, so you're analyzing me right now, aren't you?

你对这个问题有点塔木德式，但如果你想这么理解，没错，我确实在分析你。

You're being a little Talmudic with this question, but if you wanna go there, yes, I am analyzing you.

我喜欢你分析我，还把我的回应称为塔木德式的，因为如果分析不是塔木德式的，我还真想了解一下什么是别的样子。

I love that you're analyzing me and you call my response Talmudic because if analysis is anything other than Talmudic, I'd like to know.

话虽如此，事情是这样的。

That said, here's the thing.

飞行这种超能力从来就没有真正吸引过我。

Flying as a superpower has never really appealed to me.

真的吗？

Really?

我来告诉你为什么。

And I'll tell you why.

我们已经有飞机了。

We've got airplanes.

我觉得飞机把我送到目的地做得很好。

I think airplanes do a great job of flying me places.

但你得排队、脱鞋，还要和别人挤在飞机上。

But you have to wait in line and take off your shoes and sit on a plane next to other people.

而如果你能飞，你完全可以想：哦，我去买个牛油果，二十五回来。

When you could fly, you could literally be like, oh, I'm gonna go pick up an avocado, and you could be back in twenty five seconds.

我宁愿直接选择瞬移。

I'd much rather just go all the way and get teleportation.

但那不是我给你的

But I didn't give you that

不是。

No.

你没给。

You didn't.

但那会非常方便。

But that would be really convenient.

比如现在，我真想站在长城最安静的地方，眺望群山。

Like, right now, I'd like to be standing on the quietest part of the Great Wall Of China, just looking out over mountains.

那真不错。

That's nice.

顺便说一句，我不认为人们选择飞行是因为这个。

By the way, I don't think that's why people choose flying.

我不觉得他们想的是能快速到达目的地。

I don't think they're thinking that they could get places really fast.

他们为什么要选择它？

Why do they choose it?

为了刺激吗？

For the thrill?

因为这可能会很有趣。

Because it could be fun.

你有没有看过鸟，然后心想：天啊。

You ever, like, look at a bird, and you're like, oh my god.

那看起来太有趣了。

That looks so fun.

是的。

Yeah.

但我连过山车都不喜欢，所以我觉得那并不是我的菜。

But I also don't even like roller coasters, so I don't really think that's my thing.

我也知道隐身这个想法非常受欢迎。

I also know that the idea of invisibility is very popular.

我认为它们处于一个光谱的两个极端。

I think of them as being on the two extremes of a spectrum.

等等。

Wait.

什么光谱的两端？

Two ends of what spectrum?

我不想说善与恶，但当我听到有人渴望隐身时，我会想起柏拉图《理想国》中关于盖吉斯戒指的故事。

Well, I don't wanna say good and evil, but when I hear about the desire to be invisible, I think back to the story about the Ring of Gyges in Plato.

你记得那个故事吗？

Do you remember that story?

我不记得。

I do not.

当你提到盖吉斯戒指时，我心想：这是来自《霍比特人》的吗？

When you said the Ring of Gyges, I was like, is this from The Hobbit?

它比《霍比特人》要古老得多。

A tiny bit older than The Hobbit.

在柏拉图的《理想国》中，柏拉图的哥哥格劳孔讲述了一个关于牧羊人盖吉斯的故事，盖吉斯在某个地方——可能是在一个洞穴里——发现了一枚戒指。

In Plato's Republic, Glaucon, Plato's older brother, tells a story about a shepherd named Gyges, and Gyges comes upon a ring, maybe finds it in a cave.

我不记得具体的情节了。

I don't remember the circumstance.

所以，总之，盖吉斯戴上了这枚戒指。

So, anyway, Gyges puts the ring on.

它让他变得隐形。

It makes him invisible.

这就像《指环王》。

This is like the Lord of the Rings.

他勾引了王后，杀死了国王，并夺取了王位。

He seduces the queen, he kills the king, and he seizes the kingdom.

当他勾引王后的时候，他是隐形的吗？

When he seduces the queen, is he invisible?

我不记得了。

I don't recall.

这太令人兴奋了。

That's very exciting.

真想知道女王当时觉得发生了什么。

Wonder what the queen thought was going on.

柏拉图讲这个故事的原因，是想传达一个哲学或道德观念：如果我们能不受惩罚地为所欲为，我们就会为了自己的利益做许多并不高尚的事情。

And the reason that Plato is telling us this story is the philosophical or moralistic idea that if we can act with impunity without the threat of punishment, we will do all kinds of things for our own purposes that are not so noble.

所以，老实说，当我听到在飞行和隐身之间做选择时，我想，飞行代表一种自由和刺激，能让我获得新的体验，这有什么不好呢？

And so, honestly, when I hear about this choice between flying and invisibility, I think, well, flying is a kind of freedom and thrill and allows me to have new experiences and what's wrong with that.

而隐身则必然会成为一种诱惑，促使我做一些至少是调皮捣蛋、甚至可能极其邪恶的事，而且还不用被抓到。

Whereas invisibility will inevitably be a temptation that will encourage me to do things that are a little bit cheeky at the very least and maybe a lot evil without getting caught.

因此，我永远不会选择隐身，因为我对自己使用这种超能力没有信心。

So I am not going to vote for invisibility ever because I don't trust myself with that superpower.

你这么一说，这简直太明显了，但天哪，我之前根本没想到这一点。

That is so obvious when you say it, and yet, wow, I had not thought of that at all.

既然你提到了，顺便说一句，有研究表明，当人们觉得自己正被监视时，比如墙上贴着一双眼睛的海报。

Now that you have said it, by the way, there is research that when people think that they are being watched, you know, there's a poster with eyes on it.

人们会更诚实吗？

Are people more honest?

我知道这存在争议。

I know it's debated.

当人们戴墨镜时，他们会比不戴墨镜时做更多坏事吗？这简直太荒谬了。

And when people are wearing sunglasses, do they do more bad stuff than when they don't, which is incredibly silly.

这更像是鸵鸟效应。

It's more like an ostrich effect.

显然，即使你戴着墨镜，别人还是能看见你。

Obviously, people can still see you when you're wearing sunglasses.

但总之，我想说，你没错，当人们知道自己被注视时，行为会更好。

But anyway, all that to say, I think you're right about people behaving better when they are being watched.

我的丈夫一生中很大一部分时间都在倡导测速摄像头。

I mean, my husband has spent a good part of his life advocating for speed cameras.

这简直像是他的业余爱好。

It's like his extracurricular activity.

他有很多课外活动。

He has a lot of extracurricular activities.

还有捡狗屎巡逻队。

There's the dog poop patrol.

他确实如此。

He really does.

他就像一个专业的市民。

He is like a professional citizen.

他是最有公共精神的人。

He is the most civic person.

我能选他当什么职位吗？

Can I elect him to something?

你知道吗，有个人负责环境卫生服务、垃圾收集、市政垃圾桶等等。

You know, there's a person who's in charge of sanitation services, the trash collection, the municipal trash cans, and all that.

如果让他担任所有清洁事务的总管，他曾经对我说过他愿意做。

And if he could be the czar of all that cleanup stuff, he has said to me that he would do it.

所以，这不是针对杰森的。

So no offense to Jason.

我觉得他的目标定得太低了。

I think he's shooting too low.

我们可以跟他谈谈这件事。

Well, we could talk to him about it.

但在隐身和飞行这两种能力之间，你猜一般人更倾向于哪种？

But in the classic power to be invisible versus power to fly, would you rather do you wanna guess at the ratio of people's typical leanings?

我会说，更多人会选择隐身而不是飞行。

I would say that more people would choose invisibility over flying.

你觉得人们会选择邪恶而不是善良吗？

You think that people are gonna choose evil over good?

是的。

Yeah.

我想我是在用一种愤世嫉俗的角度来回答。

I guess I was going with the cynical answer.

我参考的那项研究来自《福布斯》，他们对全球超过7000名领导者进行了调查，其中大多数来自北美，也有欧洲、亚洲等地。

The study that I was looking at was from Forbes, and they surveyed over 7,000 leaders around the world, most of them in North America, but also Europe, Asia, etcetera.

结果显示，选择飞行能力的人数是选择隐身能力的三倍左右。

And with a difference of about three to one, the choice was the ability to fly over being visible.

很有趣。

Interesting.

我这里看到一些数据，似乎也与我的答案相反。

I'm looking at something here that also suggests against my answer.

我正在看一家名为Morning Consult的市场研究公司所做的调查，他们询问美国人最希望拥有什么超能力。

I'm looking at this survey that was done by a market research firm called Morning Consult, and they asked Americans what their preferred superpowers would be.

这让我大吃一惊。

It blew me away.

最受欢迎的前五项，我甚至都不打算读第三、第四和第五名。

The five most popular I'm not even gonna read you three, four, and five.

我只念第一和第二名。

I'm just gonna read you one and two.