69. 如何说服别人他们错了？

我们如何才能不陷入那片糟糕的漩涡呢？

How do we not fall into that little whirlpool of terribleness?

我是安吉拉·达克沃思。

I'm Angela Duckworth.

我是史蒂文·杜布纳。

I'm Steven Dubner.

你正在收听《无愚蠢问题》。

And you're listening to No Stupid Questions.

今天在节目中，你该如何说服别人他们错了？

Today on the show, how can you convince someone that they're wrong?

很长一段时间以来，我都讨厌说‘我错了’这几个字。

I, for a long time, have hated saying the words I was wrong.

此外，你该如何减轻被拒绝的痛苦？

Also, how can you ease the sting of rejection?

那个该死的妈妈怎么了？

What is wrong with that mother bleeper?

所以，安吉，我最近在《法院》杂志上读到一篇奥利维亚·戈德希尔的文章。

So, Angie, I recently read an article in Courts by Olivia Goldhill.

这篇文章的标题是：要告诉别人他们错了，首先得告诉他们他们是对的。

It was called to tell someone they're wrong, first, tell them they're right.

我立刻想到了你，当然，因为你总是对的，而我通常都是错的。

And I thought of you, of course, since you're always right, and I'm usually wrong.

这篇文章引用了17世纪法国哲学家布莱兹·帕斯卡的建议。

This article cited advice from Blaise Pascal, the seventeenth century French philosopher.

他写道：当我们想让别人意识到他们错了时，必须先注意到他们是从哪个角度看待这个问题的。

He wrote, when we wish to show another that he errors, we must notice from what side he views the matter.

因为从那个角度来说，通常是有道理的，我们必须向他们承认这个真相，然后再向他们揭示他们观点中错误的那一面。

For on that side, it is usually true, and we must admit that truth to him, but reveal to him the side on which it is false.

他们会感到满意，因为他们觉得他们并没有错，只是没有看到全部的角度。

He is satisfied with that for he sees that he was not mistaken and that he only failed to see all sides.

因此，安吉，帕斯卡认为，这实际上会为承认至少部分错误的思维方式铺平道路。

And so, Angie, Pascal argues that this would essentially pave the way for an admission of at least partial wrong thinking.

对我来说，这听起来非常合理，理论上也很有效。

Now to me, this sounds very sensible, theoretically effective.

我想知道你的看法，有人试过吗？

I wanna know from you, has it been tried?

它有效吗？

Does it work?

这应该是我们所有人行事的方式吗？

Is this the way we should all be operating?

在我们讨论帕斯卡和现代科学之前，你读过戴尔·卡耐基的书吧。

Well, before we get to Pascal and the modern science of this, you've read Dale Carnegie.

你知道我是戴尔·卡耐基的超级粉丝，只是没说出口。

You know that I'm a secret super fan of Dale Carnegie.

对吧？

Right?

你根本不是什么秘密超级粉丝。

You're not a secret super fan.

你是个超级粉丝。

You're a super fan.

这根本不是什么秘密。

There's nothing secret about that.

我是《如何赢得朋友与影响他人》的超级粉丝。

I am a super fan in how to win friends and influence people.

我记得我说过这话，当时我就想：对，没错。

I remember I said this, and I was like, yes.

如果你试图说服别人接受你的观点，首先应该给对方充分表达他们意见的机会。

And that is if you're trying to convince somebody of your point of view, you first want to give your opponent the chance to fully describe their opinion.

你要让他们觉得你真的在认真倾听。

You want to get them to think that you're really listening.

我认为，真正地倾听可能同样有效，甚至更好。

I think actually listening could be just as good, if not better.

但不管怎样，接下来的问题是，他们对吗？

But, anyway, then the question is, are they right?

在我们讨论科学证据之前，我想先说一点：我一直有这样的直觉，那就是在进入任何讨论之前，你必须让对方感到放松，并且喜欢你，否则他们只会变得愤怒、防御和具有攻击性。

And I just wanna first, before we talk about scientific evidence, say that I've always had that intuition that you have to get the other person to feel relaxed and to feel like they like you before you get into any kind of discussion because otherwise, they're just gonna be angry, defensive, and aggressive.

对吧？

Right?

说得有道理。

Fair enough.

但请让我先暂停一下。

But let me slam on the brakes for one second.

因为你们所描述的，无论是来自卡内基、帕斯卡，还是罗伯特·西奥迪尼关于好感与互惠的观点，对今天听我们对话的任何人来说，听起来都合理、合乎逻辑，或许也很有效。

Because what you're describing, whether it's from Carnegie, whether it's from Pascal, whether it's from Robert Cialdini here about the likability and the reciprocity ideas, All of that sounds, I think, to anybody who'd be listening to us speak today, reasonable and logical and perhaps successful.

但这难道不是一种操纵吗？

But isn't it just manipulative?

这正是我犹豫是否要公开自己是戴尔·卡内基铁粉的原因。

That's the reason why I hesitated to come out as a super fan of Dale Carney.

很多人一听到《如何赢得朋友与影响他人》这个书名，就会觉得不舒服。

A lot of people, you know, leaves a bad taste in about, like, just the title, how to win friends and influence people.

是的

Yeah.

要告诉别人他们错了，先告诉他们他们是对的。

And to tell someone they're wrong, first tell them they're right.

有人可能会立刻回应说：等等。

One could easily respond and say, wait a minute.

你怎么知道他们错了？

How do you know they're wrong?

你怎么知道你是对的？

How do you know you're right?

难道那不应该是第一步吗？

Shouldn't that be the first step?

这太操纵性了。

It's so manipulative.

我的意思是，整个戴尔·卡耐基的那一套有点令人反感，但我认为可以以一种更理想主义的方式来理解它，也就是说，嘿。

I mean, the whole Dale Carnegie shtick is a little distasteful, but I think there's a way to read this in a much more idealistic way, which is to say, hey.

我真的很希望进行一些不会让我们更加坚信对方是错的对话。

I really actually want to have conversations that don't end in us being more strongly convinced that the other person is wrong.

所以，如果你以这种方式来看待它，我觉得这很合理。

And so if you take that approach to it, it feels right to me.

老实说，我认为还没有太多严谨的研究直接检验过这一点。

I honestly don't think there's been a lot of rigorous research to directly test this.

比如，当你在争论时，随机分配一些人按照帕斯卡的说法去做：完全允许对方阐述他们的观点，肯定你认为正确的部分，然后停顿。

Like, if you're in an argument and then you randomly assign people to either do as Pascal says, which is to fully allow the other person to elaborate their point of view, to affirm the parts of that point of view that you think are right, and then paragraph break.

嘿。

Hey.

这里有一些新的证据。

Here's some new evidence.

我想不出任何一个随机分组实验专门做过所有这些事情。

I can't think of a single random assignment experiment that specifically did all of that.

所以有很多间接证据，但我认为还没有人直接测试过帕斯卡方法。

So there's lot of circumstantial evidence, but I don't think there's been a direct test of the PASCAL approach.

史蒂夫·斯洛曼关于解释深度幻觉做过一些研究。

There is research about the illusion of explanatory depth by Steve Sloman.

几年前我们在《魔鬼经济学广播》的一期节目中了解到这个概念。

I learned about this in an episode we did at Freakonomics Radio a few years ago.

我们把这期节目命名为《如何改变你的想法》。

We called the episode how to change your mind.

我特意这么命名，因为我个人并不习惯直接告诉别人

I expressly did that because I am not personally comfortable telling people

你可不想写一本叫《如何赢得朋友并影响他人》的书。

You do not wanna write a book called How to Win Friends and Influence People.

你更应该写一本像《如何做个好朋友并接受影响》这样的书。

You wanna write a book, like, how to be a good friend and be influenced.

好吧。

Well, okay.

也许没那么温和，但我们确实把这期节目命名为《如何改变你的想法》，因为‘如何改变别人想法’这个说法，在我看来隐含了一种我不愿拥有的傲慢。

Maybe not that benign, but we did call this episode how to change your mind because the very notion of how to change the other person's mind, to me, presumes an arrogance that I don't wish to own.

我不是说我在某些方面没有这种心态，但我并不想拥有它。

I'm not saying I don't own it on some dimension, but I don't wish to own it.

我希望彻底否认它。

I wish to disown it.

根据史蒂夫·斯洛曼的说法，你所知道的和你以为自己知道的之间存在着巨大差距。

So according to Steve Sloman, there's a big gap between what you know and what you think you know.

这个差距被称为解释深度的幻觉，斯洛曼指出，人们无法区分自己知道的内容和别人知道的内容。

That gap is called the illusion of explanatory depth, and Sloman said that people fail to distinguish what they know from what others know.

在这项研究中，他让参与者对自己对某个政治话题（比如气候变化或枪支管控）的了解程度进行信心评分。

So in this study, he asked participants to rate how confident they were in their level of knowledge about a political topic, let's say, climate change or maybe his gun control, whatever.

然后他会要求参与者解释这个话题，而他们在解释前后的信心水平会显著下降，因为他们意识到自己知道的其实很少。

And then he would ask participants to explain the topic and their confidence level in their position, which was measured before and after the explanation task, would drop significantly after they saw how little they knew.

我认为我更喜欢这个实验的一个早期版本，因为它能更清晰地说明这个观点，而不会让我们陷入谁对谁错的争论中，它会要求人们解释。

I think an earlier version of this experiment that I like even more because it shows the point without us getting caught up in who's right or wrong, it would ask people to explain.

比如，如果我对你说，安吉，你知道拉链是怎么工作的吗？

Like, if I say to you, Angie, do you know how a zipper works?

你会说，当然了。

And you'd say, well, duh.

当然。

Of course.

我可能每天都会用拉链。

I use a zipper probably every day of my life.

你知道钢笔是怎么工作的吗？

Do you know how a pen works?

当然了。

Duh.

我每天都在用钢笔写字。

I write with a pen every day.

你知道水龙头是怎么工作的吗？

Do you know how a sink works?

当然，我每天都在用水。

Of course, I get water every day.

然后我会说，好吧。

And then I'd say, okay.

你能给我解释一下水槽到底是怎么工作的吗？

Can you explain to me how a sink actually works?

我们大多数人，除非是水管工或与水管工相关的人，其实根本无法详细解释水槽的工作原理。

And most of us, unless we are plumbers or plumber adjacent, really can't explain how a sink works.

通过认识到我们无法详细说明这种相对简单的物理装置的实际工作原理，我们开始对那些更大的假设产生一点谦逊。

And by understanding that we can't explain in detail the actual workings of that relatively simple physical thing, begin to gain a little humility about what might be a bigger presumption.

我发现，这是一种非常有趣的方式来评估我们自身的不足，以及当我们认为他人的观点是‘错误’时，该如何与他人相处。

And that I found to be a fascinating way to assess our own shortcomings and how to deal with other people when we think that their position is, quote, wrong.

这应该让人变得谦逊。

It should lead to humility.

但在这些我想象中帕斯卡或戴尔·卡耐基所思考的争论中，比如疫情期间是否应该延长失业救济金？

But in these arguments that I'm imagining that Pascal or Dale Carnegie were thinking about, like, should we have unemployment benefits extended or not during the pandemic?

我认为，在这些情况下，人们非常乐意详细阐述自己的立场，指责对方愚蠢，但似乎并没有带来谦逊。

I think there, people are very happy to elaborate their position, why the other side is stupid, and it doesn't seem to lead to humility.

你刚才描述的，我觉得和帕斯卡不一样。

What you were just describing, I think, is different from Pascal.

帕斯卡说的是，嘿。

Pascal was saying, hey.

如果你在和一个持完全相反观点的人争论，首先，先让一步。

If you're having an argument with somebody who believes diametrically the opposite, first, just concede ground.

先认真听他们说，也许还能指出你认为他们论点中合理的地方。

First, really hear them out and maybe point out the parts of their argument that you feel are rational.

我觉得这不一样。

I think that's different.

我不是说你的方法没有价值，但我觉得你提到的那些研究，比如‘水槽是怎么工作的？’

I'm not saying that yours isn't also possibly valuable, but I think that in the research that you were talking about, like, oh, how does a sync work?

哦，我这才意识到我根本不知道水槽是怎么工作的。

Oh, I guess I realized I didn't know how sync works.

这其中涉及的自我ego要少得多。

There's a lot less ego involved.

我认为，当你对堕胎或福利待遇已经持有某种立场时，这类问题往往充满了情感和意识形态，而不像这些事实性问题，人们对此不会感到尴尬。

I think when you already have a position on abortion or on welfare benefits, it's a lot of emotion and ideology built into that kind of question as opposed to these factual questions that nobody feels as embarrassed about.

你知道，帕斯卡说过，站在你对手一方的立场上，显然有一些真理存在。

You know, one of the things that Pascal says is that on the side of the argument that your opponent is, there is clearly some truth.

如果我们直接跳到自己这一边，不仅会让对手更加防御，还会让我们自己切断了大量信息的来源。

And if we go right to our side, then not only do we have now a more defensive opponent, we basically cut ourselves off from a lot of information.

你能分享一个你生活中亲身经历的例子吗？比如你曾确信自己是对的，但后来发现其实自己错了？

Can you share an example from your own life where you were sure that you were right about something and found out that you were, quote, wrong?

好的。

Okay.

这是一个很书呆子气的回答，但确实有一次我必须做预注册。

This is a really dorky answer, but there was this preregistration that I had to do.

也就是说，那份你写下自己将要研究什么的文件。

In other words, the document where you say, this is what I'm going to study.

我要怎么研究，以及我要如何进行统计分析。

This is how I'm gonna study it, and this is how I'm gonna run the statistics.

我原本有一条关于我要怎么做统计模型的说明，而且我非常确信自己是对的。

I had this line about how I was gonna do the statistical model, and I was really sure that I was right.

然后我的合作者说我错了，但我一点也没觉得自己错了。

And then my collaborator said I was wrong, and I didn't feel at all wrong.

经过几天和多次交谈，我才慢慢接受这个观点，然后我直接承认了。

It took a few days and a lot of conversations for me to come around to that, and then I just admitted.

我当时就想，哦，我真是个傻瓜。

I was like, oh, I'm an idiot.

当然了。

Like, of course.

那么，这种承认让你付出了什么代价吗？

So did that admission cost you anything?

我发现的一件事是这样。

Well, one thing that I have discovered is this.

很长一段时间以来，我都讨厌说‘我错了’这几个字。

I, for a long time, have hated saying the words I was wrong.

我仍然讨厌说‘我错了’这几个字，但没那么讨厌了。

I still hate saying the words I was wrong, but I hate them a little less.

我在想，我之所以没那么讨厌了，是不是某种形式的暴露疗法的结果。

And I wondered if the reason I hate it less is some version of exposure therapy.

我强迫自己毫无保留地说出‘我错了’，结果发现这变得越来越容易了。

I have forced myself to say without qualification I was wrong, and it has gotten easier.

并不容易，但确实变容易了。

Not easy, but it's gotten easier.

那你认为更频繁地说出这句话会有什么影响呢？

And what do you think are the ramifications of saying that more often?

你觉得即使间接地，你也能从中受益吗？比如让你的同事觉得，哦，安吉偶尔才会承认自己错了，因此这反而让她成为一个更有价值的合作者。

Do you think you benefit from it even if indirectly by making the other people that you work with think, oh, Angie will admit on that rare occasion when she was wrong, and therefore, therefore, that makes her an even more valuable collaborator.

我认为在鸟类中，当你处于很高的地位时，

I think it is true of birds that when you are really high status

我得说，鸟类总是错得离谱。

Birds are so wrong all the time, I have to say.

我认识的每只鸟，都在胡说八道。

Every bird I know, they're just spouting crap.

它们根本不知道水槽怎么用。

And they don't know how its sink works.

它们也不知道笔怎么用。

They don't know how a pen works.

它们确实不知道。

They don't.

可它们都装作知道。

They're all saying they do.

这太让人烦了。

It's so annoying.

我相信有个研究，但这是二十五年前在酒吧里有人告诉我的，我得找到这个研究，说的是地位很高的鸟，比如那种顶级地位的鸟。

So I believe that there's a study, but somebody told it to me in a bar, like, twenty five years ago, and I have to find this study that high status birds, like, really high status.

你说地位高的鸟，就像春天里蓝鸦那种更高的地位。

When you say a high status bird, it's like a blue jay higher status in the spring.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

在物种内部。

Within the the species.

比如，你和那些与你同类的其他鸟相比。

So, like, you versus the other birds of the same feather as it were.

有人曾在酒吧告诉我，有研究显示，当地位极高的鸟类与地位较低的鸟类发生冲突时，它们有时会选择退让，根本不需要通过战斗来证明自己。

So it's been told to me in a bar that there's research showing that when the very high status birds get into a conflict with a lower status bird, they will actually sometimes back down, that they don't have to go into the fight to prove themselves.

当我看TED演讲时，就会想到这一点，因为你看到所有这些地位高的人展现脆弱，谈论自己的失败。

And I think about that when I see TED Talks because you see all these high status people being vulnerable and talking about their failures.

我觉得这确实是我们都应该做的，但对你来说这么说很容易，因为你已经当了二十年的公司CEO，这正是你被邀请做TED演讲的原因。

And I feel like it's something that, yes, we should all do, but easy for you to say you were already the CEO of a corporation for twenty years, which is why you're giving a TED Talk.

所以我觉得，我现在已经足够有地位，可以坦率地说：哇。

So I think that I am now a high status enough bird to be able to say, woah.

我之前没意识到我的统计模型弄错了。

I didn't realize that I got the statistical model wrong.

但我并不确定，我能否轻率地建议我的一年级研究生总是到处说‘我错了’。

But I'm not sure it's advice that I can glibly give to my first year graduate students, you know, go around all the time saying, I was wrong.

我错了。

I was wrong.

我错了。

I was wrong.

这是高地位者的特权，但还不是你的特权。

That's the privilege of a high status bird, but not yet your privilege.

尽管如此，当你权衡所有利弊时，承认错误、理解他人观点或立场，肯定是更好的选择。

All that said, when you think of all the pluses and minuses, it's gotta be better to admit when we're wrong, see the other side of an opinion or an issue.

总的来说，智力上的谦逊是一件好事。

Net, intellectual humility is a good thing.

我很想知道是否有证据支持这一点。

I'm curious if there's evidence to back that up.

我们是否了解人们在改变想法、承认自己错了之后的感受？

Do we know anything about how people feel after they change their mind, after they've admitted they were wrong?

我很想知道，这样做是否真的有好处。

I'm curious if we actually know whether there is a benefit to that.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我并不是说，关于我们在改变想法时感受的科学研究不存在。

And I'm not saying that the scientific research on how we feel when we do change our minds doesn't exist.

大量证据表明，在一个又一个实验中，人们都无法改变自己的想法。

So much of the evidence is about how in one experiment after another, people fail to change their minds.

李·罗斯最近去世了，他是有史以来最伟大的社会心理学家之一。

Lee Ross died relatively recently, one of the greatest social psychologists ever.

他最后撰写的一篇论文是关于他一生的研究工作。

And one of the last papers that he wrote was about his lifetime of work.

基本上，他在回顾自己整个研究生涯时所说的是，他发现人类有一种客观性的错觉。

Basically, what he said, looking back at the arc of all of his research, is that what he learned is that human beings have the illusion of objectivity.

无论我们相信什么，我们都真的认为那不仅是我们的观点，而且是事实。

Whatever we believe, we really believe is not only our opinion, but is fact.

比如，如果我在一个房间里感到热，我就会觉得房间确实很热。

Like, if I'm in a room and I feel hot, then I think the room is hot.

我从来不会想到，是我主观上觉得热。

It never occurs to me that I subjectively feel hot.

真的吗？

Is that true?

我和我妻子总是互相问：是房间里暖和，还是我太敏感了？

My wife and I are always asking each other, is it warm in here, or is it me?

也许你是个罕见的例外。

Maybe you're the rare exception.

但我认为很多人都是这样，也许室温只是其中一件事。

But I think a lot of people and maybe room temperature is one thing.

但你知道，在政治问题上，或者你目睹了一起事故并以某种方式看待它时，你的视角并不是‘我主观地这么认为’。

But, you know, on political issues or you witness an accident and you see things in a certain way, your perspective isn't, oh, I subjectively thought that.

你只是觉得这是真的。

You just think it's true.

我认为，这正是为什么大多数研究并不关注当你承认自己错了时的感受，而只是表明人们很难首先承认自己错了。

And I think that that is why the preponderance of studies are not about how it feels when you admit being wrong, but just showing that people have a difficult time admitting that they're wrong in the first place.

你认为帕斯卡的建议有哪些局限性？

What do you think are the limits to what Pascal recommends?

例如，你觉得这种方法能用在阴谋论者身上吗？还是说有些信念实在太荒谬了，根本无法通过解释对错来找到共同点？

For example, do you think you can use this method with conspiracy theorists, or do you think there are certain beliefs that are just too wacky to find common ground by explaining what's right and what's wrong?

好吧，我们举一个不是抽象例子的例子。

Well, let's take something which is not an abstract example.

我们拿疫情来说。

Let's take the pandemic.

哪个疫情？

What pandemic?

这纯粹是政府大规模干预、掌控我们所有生活并摧毁我们经济的举动。

That's just a big government effort to take over all our lives and to crater our economy.

没错。

Exactly.

那么，我该怎么做才能说服你这位怀疑者去接种疫苗呢？

What am I supposed to do to convince you, mister skeptic, to get vaccinated?

让我们把这看作一个极其紧迫的行为科学挑战。

Let's take that as a very urgent behavioral science challenge.

我曾参与过无数个来自不同政府机构和其他组织的委员会。

And I've been on innumerable committees from innumerable government agencies and other organizations.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

真的有那么多吗？

Really innumerable?

嗯，我有个语法问题。

Well I have a grammar thing.

我有很多语法上的讲究，其中一个就是‘countless’这个词被完全用错了。

I have a lot of grammar things, but one of them is the absolutely wrong use of the word countless.

很多时候，人们用‘countless’来形容那些实际上可以数清的东西。

A lot of times people use the word countless for things that are truly countable.

所以当你说到‘innumerable’的时候——

So when you say innumerable

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我错了。

I was wrong.

很多吗？

Is it a lot?

我觉得是三个左右。

I think it was, like, three.

但我数不到二以上。

But I can't count above two.

所以你看吧。

So there you go.

但是，史蒂文，我错了。

But, Steven, I was wrong.

好吧。

Alright.

你感觉好点了吗？

You feel better?

我感觉还行。

I feel okay.

我觉得我在做对了。

I think I'm doing it.

我在呼吸。

I'm breathing.

这个怎么样？

How about this?

你更喜欢这个吗？

Do you like this better?

数不胜数。

Literally countless.

是的。

Yeah.

这很好。

That's good.

所以问题是，我们如何让未接种疫苗的人去接种疫苗？

So asking the question, how do we get the unvaccinated to get vaccinated?

其中一个建议是，因为我经常和我们共同的朋友鲍勃·西奥迪尼参与这些讨论，那就是你要为你想说服的人提供一个保全面子的方式，这与帕斯卡的建议非常相关。

And one of the suggestions that came, because I'm often on these threads with our common friend Bob Cialdini, is that you want to give the person whom you're trying to convince a way of saving face, and it's very, very related to this Pascal advice.

因为帕斯卡说，人们觉得，意识到自己遗漏了某些东西，比单纯被证明是错的，感觉要好一些。

Because what Pascal says is that people feel maybe not good, but better about realizing that there's something they left out than that they were just wrong.

比如，哦，你知道还有另一条证据吗？

Like, oh, did you know that there's this other piece of evidence?

然后他们就能以一种保全面子的方式改变主意。

And then they can change their mind in a way that saves space.

例如，在疫情初期，我们试图说服人们戴口罩。

For example, early on in the pandemic, we were trying to convince people to wear masks.

鲍勃说，你必须给他们这种自我对话。

Bob said, you have to give them this self talk.

我怎么可能知道。

I couldn't have known.

我怎么可能知道戴口罩是正确的做法。

I couldn't have known that it's the right thing to wear a mask.

现在有了新的证据表明口罩能保护他人，不管是什么情况，我相信这确实有益，但我 honestly 目前真的没有很好的办法来帮助那些尚未被说服的人。

Now with new evidence that masks protect the other person, whatever it is, And I'm sure that's beneficial, but I honestly don't have a great answer to how do we help the unconvinced at this point.

在我们最近的研究中，激励措施效果并不好，比如抽奖之类的。

In our recent studies, incentives are not working very well, for example, lotteries and so forth.

所以目前我真的不知道该如何说服那些尚未被说服的人。

So I really am at somewhat of a loss as to how you're going to convince the unconvinced at this point.

在应对疫情这一现代挑战时，说服工作的一个重要教训是，必须采取多管齐下的策略。

And one of the great lessons of persuasion when it comes to this modern challenge that we have with the pandemic is that it's got to be a multipronged offense.

我认为帕斯卡在这里所建议的，对所有群体普遍适用，那就是没人愿意觉得自己是个傻子。

I think what Pascal is advising here is generally true for all segments, which is that nobody wants to feel like an idiot.

所以，无论你打算怎么做，无论你如何对待对方的观点，我们都假设他们并不喜欢觉得自己很愚蠢。

So whatever you're gonna do and however you're gonna approach that other person's point of view, let's just assume that they don't like feeling like they're stupid.

你说抽奖在推动人们接种疫苗方面效果不佳，但我认为真正有效的抽奖方式还没被尝试过，那就是一个极其、极其、极其、极其巨大的奖金额。

You say that lotteries have not been effective in the effort to get people vaccinated, but I think that the lottery that would be effective hasn't been tried yet, which is to say a really, really, really, really big payout.

比如说，一个一万美元的全国性抽奖，设十个获奖者。

Like, let's say it's a $10,000,000,000 national lottery, and let's say there are 10 winners.

每人获得十亿美元。

They each get $1,000,000,000.

但这里有个转折。

But here's the twist.

每个居住在美国的人都会被自动纳入抽奖，然后抽取名字，但只有接种过疫苗的人才能领取奖金。

Everyone, every single person living in America gets auto enrolled in the lottery, then names are drawn, but you can only claim you're winning if you've been vaccinated.

你觉得这种方式会怎么样？

How do you think that would work?

所以这是一场遗憾型抽奖。

So it's a regret lottery.

是的。

Yeah.

我们刚刚在费城实际运行了一次遗憾抽奖。

We literally just ran a regret lottery in Philadelphia.

虽然我们没有十亿美元，但我们说只要你是居民，就自动参与抽奖。

Now we didn't have a billion dollars, but we said if you exist, you're in the lottery.

当抽到你的名字时，你要么能领取奖金，要么就会因没接种疫苗而感到遗憾。

And when we draw your name, you're either gonna be able to claim your prize, or you're gonna have regret that you didn't get this prize.

我们有相当不错的统计证据表明，这种方法并不奏效。

And we have pretty good statistical evidence that that did not work.

顺便说一句，如果我们不认为这会有效，我们根本不会这么做。

By the way, we wouldn't have done this if we didn't think it was gonna work.

我们原本以为它会有效的。

We thought it would.

但我想，帕斯卡如果能点头的话，他这位十七世纪的法国亡魂会认同：要承认自己错了并坦然接受，一种方法就是改变这个游戏规则。

But one of the things that Pascal, I think, would nod his dead French seventeenth century head to is that one way to get to I was wrong and be okay with it is to change the game here.

游戏的目的不是要赢，而是也许要做最具有智力谦逊和开放心态的人。

The game is not to be right, but maybe the game is to be the most intellectually humble and open minded person.

然后，‘我错了’这句话突然有了完全不同的含义。

And then suddenly, I was wrong takes on a completely different color.

听到遗憾抽奖没成功，我感到很失望。

I'm disappointed to hear that the regret lottery didn't work.

是的。

Yeah.

我们遗憾的是它没有成功。

We regret that it did not work.

我失望的原因有两个。

And I'm disappointed for two reasons.

一是作为一个人，我希望它能更有效。

One is, as a human, I wish it were more effective.

另一个原因是，我刚给你开了一张十亿美元的支票，准备寄出去。

But the other is, I had just written out a check to you for a billion dollars, and I was gonna send it.

现在你却告诉我它不会成功。

And now you tell me it's not gonna work.

所以，安吉，你知道的，忘了吧。

So, Angie, you know, forget.

就这样没了。

There it goes.

接下来在《没有愚蠢的问题》节目中。

Still to come on no stupid questions.

史蒂文和安吉拉讨论为什么有些人特别敏感于被拒绝，而另一些人却似乎完全不在意。

Steven and Angela discuss why some people are particularly sensitive to rejections and others don't seem to process them at all.

你可能会想，不会吧。

You might be like, no.

我周五晚上不能出去。

I can't go out on a Friday night.

好的。

Okay.

周五见。

See you Friday.

安吉拉，有一位叫雷蒙德·陈的听众来信说，拒绝是生活的一部分。

Angela, there's a listener question from one Raymond Chen who writes to say, rejection is a part of life.

我同意。

I agree.

例子包括恋爱关系的分手、被公司解雇、论文或书籍被出版社拒稿。

Examples include a breakup in a relationship, termination from a job, a paper or book rejected by a publisher.

哎哟。

Oof.

是的。

Yeah.

这真不容易。

That's tough.

无论你经历过多少次拒绝，它从来都不会让人感觉好受。

No matter how many times you have experienced rejection, it never feels good.

普遍的建议是别管它，继续前进，但那种刺痛感有时会伴随一生。

The prevailing advice says we should do nothing and move on, but the sting lingers sometimes for life.

我们该如何适应 rejection，而不觉得像被一辆大卡车撞了一样？

How can we acclimate ourselves to weather rejections without feeling like we got hit by a Mack truck?

当我们不得不拒绝别人时，如何做才能减轻对方受到的打击？

And when we find ourselves having to reject others, how can we do it in a way that lessens the blow for people receiving it?

所以，Angela，我觉得这些问题非常好。

So, Angela, I think these are great questions.

首先，让我们来谈谈当你被拒绝时，如何避免受到太大伤害，而不是当你拒绝别人时。

First, let's tackle the not being hurt too much when you are the reject e, not the rejecter.

我认为，拒绝的核心在于，你这个人被拒绝了，而不是你的作品被拒绝了。

I think that at the heart of rejection is that you as a person are being rejected, not that your work is being rejected.

所以，当你向期刊投稿，或者为初创公司提出一个新点子却被拒绝时，你并不会觉得只是你的项目被批评了。

So if you submit a paper to a journal or you pitch a new idea for a startup and it's rejected, it's not that you think that your project is being criticized.

而是觉得你自己被批评了。

It's that you're being criticized.

但你之所以被批评，是因为你是这个作品的创造者。

But you are being criticized because you're the one who created the thing.

这解释了为什么表演或任何类型的演出都如此困难，因为表演者本身也是产品。

This is an argument for why acting or any kind of performing is so so difficult since the performer is the product also.

当你作为演员或歌手试镜却没被选中时，被拒绝的不是你的技能或技艺。

When you're an actor auditioning or a singer auditioning and when you don't get it, then it is not your skill or your craft that's being rejected.

而是你这个人。

It is you.

但如果你写了一章书或一篇论文，那同样也是你在其中。

But if you write a book chapter or a paper, it's still you.

可能有一些与个人无关的外部原因导致对方不喜欢。

There could be reasons extraneous to being an individual that that person doesn't like.

但我同意你的看法，这正是我们感受到的。

But I agree with you that this is what it feels like.

我认为这正是为什么被拒绝是一种如此痛苦的情绪，因为我们感觉仿佛作为个人被社会排斥了。

I think that's actually why rejection is such a terrible emotion to feel because we feel like we as people are being excluded somehow from society even.

我不是有意总去揭同一个伤疤。

I don't mean to keep picking the same scab.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但你会的。

But you're going to.

但我还是不认为，比如说，再举个例子，这是一篇学术论文。

But I'm still not convinced that let's say, again, let's say it's an academic paper.

顺便说一下，我刚被拒了。

I just got rejected, by the way.

这很好。

This is good.

恭喜。

Congratulations.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们来谈谈这个。

Let's talk about that.

期刊是哪个？为什么被拒了？

What was the journal, and why were you rejected?

是《动机科学》。

It was motivation science.

那边都是一群废物。

Bunch of losers over there.

那是个垃圾期刊。

It's a crap journal.

不过我要说明一下，我真的很喜欢这个期刊，于是提交了一项研究，我们对青少年如何准备SAT进行了调查。

Really like the journal for the record and submitted a study where we had a survey of teenagers about how they prepared for the SAT.

而且我们还获得了他们的SAT成绩，因为这项研究是与大学理事会合作进行的。

And then we had their SAT scores because it was done in partnership with college board.

我们还收集了这些青少年说自己学习了多长时间的数据。

And we also had how much time these teenagers said they studied.

于是我们说，嘿。

And we said, hey.

你看。

Look.

青少年为了让自己练习SAT，有各种各样的策略。

Teenagers have all kinds of strategies to get themselves to practice for the SAT.

如果你使用这些策略中的任何一个，都比单纯依靠意志力要好。

And if you use any of these strategies, it's better than just relying on willpower.

你使用的策略越多，练习时间和实际SAT成绩就越好。

And the more strategies you use, the better you do in terms of practice time and your actual SAT performance.

所以我们觉得这是一项很棒的研究。

So we thought it was a wonderful study.

事实上，有一系列相关研究。

In fact, there's a set of studies.

我们重复了这项研究。

We replicated it.

但有三位审稿人和一位编辑，我们的论文被拒了。

But there were three reviewers and an editor, and we got rejected.

我们来谈谈你收到拒稿时的感受。

Let's talk about how you felt when you received that rejection.

你在做出拒稿决定时，会考虑到每个期刊收到的论文数量远超其发表能力吗？

Do you factor into the rejection decision the fact that every journal gets way more articles than it can publish?

如果一本期刊下一期季刊只能刊登三篇文章，而你知道他们收到了50篇，你会不会用这个数据来安慰自己：这篇论文其实挺不错的，只是他们不可能全都发表？

If there's only room in that journal for, let's say, three articles in the upcoming quarterly volume and you know they're getting 50, do you use that math in your favor to say, well, this was a pretty good paper, but they couldn't publish everything?

这正是我想说的，史蒂文，要思考所有导致拒稿的因素，而不要只是想：‘他们肯定不喜欢我。’

That's what I mean, Steven, about thinking about all the factors that determine your rejection and not just, wow, they must not like me.

比如，50篇里有47篇被拒了。

Like, 47 out of 50 papers rejected.

这并不是说你个人被群体排斥了。

That's not about you as an individual being pushed out of the group.

你当时是怎么跟自己解释这次拒稿的？

What did you tell yourself about that rejection?

你有没有想过：也许这篇论文并没有我们想象的那么好？

Did you say, maybe the paper wasn't as good as we thought it was?

你知道吗，我觉得这跟我那可能不太健康的自信有关，我总是对被拒绝感到惊讶。

You know, I think this is something about my probably unhealthy level of confidence that I am always surprised when I get rejected.

比如，如果我给林-曼努埃尔·米兰达这样的名人写信，他没有立刻回我，我都会很惊讶。

Like, if I write to a celebrity like Lin Manuel Miranda and he doesn't immediately write me back, I'm always surprised.

那个该死的家伙到底怎么了？

What is wrong with that mother bleeper?

林，我还在等你的回复呢。

Still waiting for that reply, Lin.

只是想说，我真的很爱你。

Just saying, I love you.

但我要说的是。

But I will say this.

我不敏感于被拒绝，史蒂文。

I'm not rejection sensitive, Steven.

哥伦比亚大学的杰拉尔丁·唐尼和其他研究者，包括沃尔特·米歇尔，已经记录了这种观点：有些人天生容易预期、敏锐察觉并强烈反应于被拒绝的情况。

Geraldine Downey at Columbia and other researchers, including Walter Michelle, they have documented this idea that some of us have the disposition to expect, readily perceive, and then really react intensely to being rejected.

而这就是拒绝敏感性的含义，一种几乎偏向于预期被拒绝的倾向。

And that's what rejection sensitivity is, this disposition to be almost biased toward being rejected.

人类之间这种差异有多大？

How much variance is there among humankind?

我猜差异应该相当大。

I'm guessing there's quite a lot.

我很好奇，像你这样对拒绝不敏感的人属于什么样的人？

And I'm curious what kind of people are those who are rejection insensitive like you?

因为这里是我的一个理论。

Because here would be my theory.

你，安吉拉·达克沃斯，是一位相当有成就的人。

You, Angela Duckworth, are a fairly accomplished human.

因此，表面上看，可以认为你很少遭到拒绝。

So prima facie, one could determine that you haven't been rejected all that much.

哦，你是说这是一种对你经历的合乎逻辑的反应？

Oh, you're saying that this is, like, a logical response to your experience.