The Week Ahead - The World Turns

不行。

No.

我们得加倍努力，才能确保收支平衡。

We are gonna have to work quite hard to make sure, you know, we can pay our way.

迟早可能得再争取一点，但这些决定现在还不用谈。

And at some point, that might be having to ask for a little more, but, you know, those decisions are are not for now.

那些事留到以后再说吧。

They're for for another day.

你好，欢迎收听《未来一周》播客。

Hello, and welcome to the week ahead on podcast.

我是多米尼克·巴宁，来自伦敦野村银行G10外汇策略团队，今天是7月17日，星期五。

My name is Dominic Bunning, head of g ten FX strategy at Nomura here in London, and today is Friday, July 17.

过去这一周金融市场波动剧烈，美国通胀数据远低于预期，导致市场对美联储加息的预期降温，美元也有所走弱。

It's been another whirlwind week in financial markets with some sizable misses to US inflation data causing a fall in Fed rate hike expectations and some softness in the dollar.

我们很快会和杰里米·施瓦茨一起聊聊这些情况，还有美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的最新表态。

We'll be discussing that and Fed Chair Kevin Walsh's latest comments with Jeremy Schwartz soon.

但在那之前，欧洲在经济和政治方面将更加受到关注。

But before we get to that, Europe will be even more in focus both in terms of economics and politics.

我们在这期播客开头听到了英国候任首相安迪·伯纳姆的发言，他本周早些时候在接受加里·林纳克采访时提到了未来可能加税的风险。

We heard at the start of the podcast from Andy Burnham, The UK's prime minister in waiting, who flagged the risk of tax rises to come in an interview with Gary Linacre earlier this week.

英国的通胀和劳动力市场数据也将公布，同时欧洲央行还会公布利率决定。

UK inflation and labor market data are also due along with an ECB rate decision.

乔西·安德森稍后会详细解读这些最新动态。

Josie Anderson will provide more detail on all those developments shortly.

再看更远的地方，股市依然承压，一方面中东局势再度紧张，另一方面市场对科技板块和人工智能的盈利能力持续担忧，尤其是接下来几周多家大公司即将公布财报。

Looking further afield, equity markets remain under pressure both from a reescalation intentions in The Middle East, but also from ongoing concerns about the tech sector and AI profitability ahead of some major company earnings in the next few weeks.

最近几个月，韩国一直是这一故事的核心，我们会和朴景宇讨论这对韩国经济的影响。

Korea has been very much at the heart of this story in recent months, and we discuss how it's impacting the economy with Jingwoo Park.

这周的日程依然排得满满当当，我们这就直接进入正题。

Once again, it's a jam packed schedule, so let's get straight into it.

这周我们先从欧洲开始，那边有一连串重要事件即将登场。

Well, we're gonna start this week in Europe where we've got a bumper week of events coming up.

我们的欧洲经济团队的乔西·安德森现在和我们在一起。

Josie Anderson from our European economics team is with us.

乔西，一如既往，感谢你参与我们的节目。

Josie, thanks as always for joining us.

这周是欧洲央行的关键一周。

It's ECB week this week.

近期市场定价波动很大，你的看法也稍微有些调整。

There's been a lot of volatility in market pricing, and your view has shifted a little bit in recent weeks.

我想问问，你对这次会议特别有什么看法？

I'm just wondering, what are you thinking for this meeting in particular?

另外，你觉得欧洲央行未来的走向会是怎样的？

But also, what do you think the path ahead is for the ECB?

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢，汤姆。

Thanks, Tom.

确实，市场波动很大。

There's certainly been a lot of volatility.

你知道吗，六月会议上他们加息了，当时我们预计还会再加息三次，因为油价非常高。

You know, at the June meeting, they hiked, and at that point, we expected three more hikes with, oil prices very high.

当然，之后油价跌了，但现在又回升了。

Of course, they've fallen since then and and have now picked up again.

我们目前的预期是下一次会议不会加息，但九月还是会加息。

Our current expectation is no hike at the next meeting, but still a hike in September.

不过，再往后就很大程度上要看能源市场的情况了，尤其是天然气价格，我们最近越来越关注，油价也涨了，这对欧洲央行至关重要。

But, of course, beyond that, very much does still, depend on what happens in energy markets, and gas prices are something that we're looking at increasingly closely, as well as oil prices, which have moved up, and will be very important for the ECB.

我们再具体看看七月拉加德可能会谈些什么。

Looking more specifically at what we expect to to be spoken about, particularly by Lagarde in July.

当然，我们认为，既然我们预期这次会按兵不动，她很可能会保持中立态度。

Well, of course, we think she's likely to be fairly neutral with this hold that we expect.

如果我们看看欧洲央行最近的表态，比如有人说过，当前的利率水平是合适的。

If we look at what's happened in recent ECB speak, example, has said, that ECB rates are appropriate where they are.

甚至在冲突再度升级之前，他就更倾向于等到九月再考虑进一步加息。

And even prior to the reescalation of the conflict, speak was more supportive of waiting until September for any additional rate hike.

所以我们预计他在即将召开的会议上会保持中立态度。

So we expect, fairly neutral, speak at the upcoming meeting.

明白了。

Okay.

太好了。

Fantastic.

非常清楚，JC。

Very clear, JC.

谢谢。

Thank you.

和往常一样，除了欧洲央行，英国的数据也备受关注，尤其是即将公布的滞后市场数据和通胀数据。

As always, away from the ECB, UK is very much in focus from a data front at least with the late market data and inflation coming up.

你能分享一下你对这些数据的预期吗？还有，你觉得这些数据会如何影响英国央行的决策？

Can you give us your expectations on these prints and and also how you think they feed into the Bank of England's thinking?

是的

Yeah.

当然

Sure.

这个月晚些时候，英国央行也会有动作。

So we we have, the Bank of England this month later in the month as well.

下周的数据非常重要。

So next week is very important for data.

先说通胀，最近两次的数据都略低于市场预期。

Starting with inflation, well, we've actually had in the the last two prints has surprised consensus slightly to the downside.

和我们的预测一致。

They were in line with our forecast.

我们预计六月的同比CPI通胀率会放缓至2.5%。

We actually expect a slowdown in June to 2.5% headline year on year CPI.

比之前的2.8%有所下降。

That will be down from 2.8%.

但我们预计这主要来自通胀中的非核心部分。

But we expect that to be mainly on the non core elements of inflation.

所以看六月，批发能源价格确实下降了，这也传导到了汽油价格上。

So, of course, looking at June, we had that lower also or fall in in wholesale energy prices, and that did feed through to things like petrol prices.

而且我们预计食品价格只会温和上涨。

And then we also only expect a modest rise in in food prices.

当然，在英国，整个能源价格上限周期还在继续，这意味着七月起，家庭能源账单的影响就会开始显现。

Of course, in The UK, we have the whole off gerb energy price cap cycle, so that means that in July, we will see that impact of household energy bills start to feed through.

不过在六月，由于这些非核心因素，我们预计整体通胀数据会比较温和。

But actually, in June, we do expect that fairly benign headline reading as a result of those non core measures.

至于劳动力市场，这里总是有很多变动因素。

On the labor market, you know, there's always loads of moving pieces here.

当然，货币政策委员会会密切关注劳动力市场是否出现更明显的疲软迹象。

Of course, the MPC will be looking out for if there is much more evidence of of a softening in the labor market.

这一直是他们的担忧。

That has been a concern for them.

他们目前不愿加息，其中一个原因是利率已经相当紧缩，所以我们预计今年他们会维持利率不变。

And one of the reasons why they're hesitant to to raise rates at the moment, we expect them to stay on hold this year because rates are fairly restrictive.

关于一些具体数据，我们预计这份报告中欧盟的失业率将为5%，同时就业人数会有所下降。

In terms of of some of the details, we expect the EU rate, the unemployment rate to to be 5% in this report and and a fall in in payrolls.

明白了。

Okay.

太好了。

Super.

我们稍微换个话题，从经济转向政治。

Just changing tack a little bit away from the economics towards the politics.

在英国，理论上周一应该会公布新首相人选，我觉得应该是安迪·伯纳姆，而且据《金融时报》报道，谢巴恩·马哈茂德极有可能出任新财政大臣。

In The UK, we should, in theory, get the announcement of a new prime minister, Andy Burnham, I think, at least on on Monday, and potentially a new chancellor with the Feet reporting that, Shebahn Mahmoud is the very strong front runner.

你对英国当前的财政状况怎么看？最终政府会在财政政策上采取什么行动？

What's your current take on the sort of UK fiscal situation and and ultimately what the government is gonna end up doing on on fiscal policy?

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢，约翰。

Thanks, John.

看来马哈茂德现在是最有可能出任财政大臣的人选，她属于党内偏右的一派，而米利班德则被看作是左翼温和派。

So it does sound like Mahmoud is now, the most likely candidate for for chancellor, and she's from the more right right side of the party versus perhaps, Milleban, who who is perceived to be on the soft left of the party.

市场对此反应相当积极。

So markets seem to have been taking this fairly positively.

这表明工党可能更倾向于遵守财政纪律，而市场非常关注这一点。

It's a sign that perhaps, you know, the Labour Party, is more likely to stick to the fiscal rules, which which markets are very concerned about about seeing.

但目前为止，我们对马哈茂德的经济计划和可能推行的政策了解得还不多。

But ultimately, we haven't heard that much from Mahmoud on on her economic plans, and and her policies that she she might implement.

所以还有很多不确定性，不仅在于马哈茂德的想法，也在于伯纳姆打算推行哪些政策。

And so there is still a lot to, a lot to to see, not just in terms of what Mahmoud thinks, but in terms of what Burnham is planning on doing in terms of policy.

我们知道他希望在某些领域增加支出，特别是住房，甚至可能把水务等公共服务重新国有化。

We know he would like to increase spending in certain areas, in particular things like housing, perhaps perhaps renationalizing things like water.

但关键问题是，他能否在不违背财政纪律的前提下找到资金——即使不能完全照搬现有规则，至少也要保持类似框架，否则市场会很不满，毕竟英国的债务占GDP比重已经很高了。

But the key question will be is can he find the money to do so while maintaining something probably, if not exactly the same fiscal rules, something that looks very similar because if he doesn't keep that, then markets will not take that very well because of the high debt to GDP ratio.

因此，未来几周我们肯定会密切关注这一点，但目前我们 still 在等待伯纳姆和很可能出任财长的马哈茂德详细说明他们的计划。

And so this is something we're gonna be watching closely, of course, over the coming weeks, but we're still waiting to hear a lot about what plans are from both Burnham and who is likely to be chancellor Mahmoud.

明白了。

Okay.

所以有很多事情值得关注，尤其是英国，还有下周的欧洲央行。

So plenty to watch, particularly in The UK, but also the ECB, next week.

欧洲依然是焦点，哪怕英格兰队这周早些时候被毫不留情地淘汰出世界杯。

So lots going on in Europe, very much the center of attention even, if England were unceremoniously dumped out of the World Cup, earlier this week.

我们肯定还是会继续关注欧洲的动向。

We'll still be, focused on Europe for sure.

谢谢您，乔西，我们很快再联系。

Thanks, Josie, and we'll catch up with you soon.

非常感谢，汤姆。

Thanks a lot, Tom.

主席先生，美联储即将开启新的篇章。

We're starting a new chapter, mister chairman, at the Federal Reserve.

在这个对国家至关重要的时刻，我可以向大家报告，美联储决心立足当下、着眼未来。

In this consequential time for our nation, I can report to you that we at the Fed intend to be fit for purpose and focused on the future.

好，我们现在转到美国那边。

Well, we're gonna zip over to The US now.

刚听了美联储主席凯文·沃什在汉弗莱-霍金斯听证会上的发言。

Just heard from, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his Humphrey Hawkins' testimony.

我们请来了驻纽约的资深美国经济学家杰里米·施瓦茨连线。

We've got Jeremy Schwartz, our senior US economist, joining us from New York.

杰里米，我知道最近大家的注意力都在世界杯上，但市场动态显然同样关键。

Jeremy, I know it's been busy there with the focus on the World Cup, but clearly markets are also pretty important.

我们刚听了凯文·沃什谈到美联储开启了新篇章。

We just heard from Kevin Walsh there talking about the start of a new chapter at the Fed.

到目前为止，他对政策立场一直保持低调。

Up until now, he's been pretty tight lipped on the policy stance.

我们刚才

Did we

这周从沃什那里学到什么新东西了吗？

learn anything new this week from from Warsh?

有。

Yeah.

他在汉弗莱-霍金斯听证会上确实稍微透露了一点，但关于利率路径，他还是守口如瓶。

So he did open up a little bit in the Humphrey Hawkins testimony, I would say, and he remains very tight lipped about the path for policy rates.

他依然坚决反对提供前瞻性指引。

He still is very opposed to giving forward guidance.

他不想提前预判任何下次FOMC会议的结果。

He doesn't want to prejudge the outcomes of any future FOMC meetings.

不过我觉得，我们还是听到了一些关于他改革计划的线索，比如他对这些工作组可能成果的原有看法。

But I think we did hear a little bit more about some of his plans for regime change, some of his priors around what the outcomes of these task forces might be.

而且从更深层来看，我们依然能感觉到，尽管他重视通胀和抗通胀的信誉，但他整体立场其实还算温和。

And then I think beneath the surface, we're continuing to see some confirmation that he does remain relatively dovish, despite his focus on inflation and inflation fighting credibility.

我们先从他提到的一些宏观观点说起吧，沃什又重申了他长期以来对资产负债表的看法。

So maybe kinda starting with some of the bigger picture items we heard, Warsh did kinda repeat a lot of his long held views on the balance sheets.

他说他不想提前预判资产负债表调整的结果，但希望把它尽可能缩小到切实可行的最低水平。

He said he didn't want to prejudge the outcome of his balance force, but that he wants it to be as small as practicably possible.

我觉得这和大家预期的一致，他确实想推动缩减资产负债表的结构性规模。

So I think consistent with some expectations that he would be pushing to kind of reduce the structural size of the balance sheet there.

至于通胀，他对最近的一些数据仍持一定程度的怀疑态度。

And then, I would say on inflation, he kind of remains a little bit skeptical of some of the incoming data that we have seen recently.

他并没有明确支持剔除波动项的PCE通胀指标，但也对常规核心PCE通胀表示担忧。

He didn't quite come out and support trimmed mean PCE inflation, but he said he also has concerns with regular core PCE inflation.

在参议院听证会上，他特别提到，人工智能带来的价格压力其实不算通胀，真正会带来的是滞后出现的供给侧改善，因此他倾向于忽略短期内的价格波动。

And in one notable exchange in his senate testimony, he said that AI driven price pressures weren't really inflation, and that actually you're going to get supply side improvements coming with a lag, and so he would kinda discount any near term price pressures there.

我们认为，他仍在持续构建一个论点：忽略一些看似鹰派的数据，不必急于提前加息，因为他们预期中期内通胀会自然回落。

So we do think he continues to be building up this case to look past some hawkish data to not feel like he needs to hike proactively because they do expect disinflation off in the medium term.

除此之外，我们觉得沃什基本上没有表态美联储该不该加息或维持现状。

You know, other than that, you know, we think that, again, Warsh was largely kind of not not weighing in on whether the Fed should hike rates or remain on hold here.

但值得注意的是，尽管他强调了信誉，他也明确指出美联储必须对通胀问题负起责任。

But, you know, notably, while he stressed credibility, he stressed the importance of the Fed taking responsibility for inflation.

他从未明确说过这可能需要收紧政策。

He never went so far as to say that that might require tightening policy.

所以我们仍认为他是在争取时间。

So we continue to expect he's playing for time.

我们觉得他更倾向于按兵不动，希望数据能继续向有利方向发展，让美联储保持耐心。

We continue to think that he would rather remain on hold and kind of hope that the data continue to move in the right direction and allow the Fed to remain patient.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Fantastic.

所以他对这是否代表彻底的政策转变还持一点怀疑，但确实值得密切关注，尤其是那些特别工作组的动向。

So maybe a little bit skeptical that this is a complete regime change, but certainly things to things to watch on on that front, particularly with task forces and everything else.

你刚才也提到，对最近的数据可能有点保留意见。

You you also mentioned there, you know, slight skepticism maybe about the recent data.

这周我们连续看到两个比较疲软的通胀数据，CPI和PPI都是如此。

We've we've had two pretty soft or relatively soft inflation prints this week, both in CPI and PPI.

你对这些数据怎么看？

What what did you make of those numbers?

这只是一个暂时的波动，还是说通胀放缓的背后有更深层的原因？

Was this just a temporary blip, or is there something more sort of deep seated happening here in terms of the disinflationary process?

我觉得两者都有吧。

So I'd say it's a little bit of both there.

我们看到的大量迹象表明，通胀的势头确实在减弱。

I think there's a lot of evidence we've seen that inflation momentum is likely cooling here.

能源价格已经从高点回落，工资增长也在持续放缓，而且就算在这次数据出来之前，仔细看通胀细节，就能发现关税带来的影响已经在消退。

So we've seen energy prices come off their peak, wage growth continues to moderate, and when you dig into the details of the inflation data, even before these prints, there was some evidence that the impact from tariffs was waning.

所以你说的‘火候正在退’这个说法很有道理，这次的数据正好支持了这一点。

So I think the case that you were coming off the boil was pretty strong, and this data supports that.

不过，这些数据也确实放大了放缓的程度。

That said, it certainly exaggerates the extent of the slowdown.

很多波动性较大的项目都大幅低于预期，而一些在五月表现强劲的项目，我们认为六月是过度修正了。

You had a lot of volatile components, kind of undershooting to the downside, a few things which were strong in May, we think overcorrected in June.

所以我们绝不会据此推断，这已经形成了一波明显的通缩趋势，或者你突然就重回2%的目标了。

So we certainly wouldn't extrapolate that and say that this is a sharp disinflation trend, or kind of you're suddenly on track back to the 2% targets.

但我们确实认为，之前对五月和六月数据过热的担忧，可能被夸大了。

But we do think that, again, some of the overheating concerns around May and June data were probably overstated.

现在看来，这种说法正在逐渐缓和。

We think that narrative seems to be easing up now.

关于过热的这种焦虑，热度正在慢慢退去。

The fever is breaking a little bit on this idea of overheating.

当我们把所有数据综合起来看，核心PCE的跟踪估算大约在17到18个基点左右。

You know, when we put it all together, we're getting a core PCE tracking estimate of around 17 or 18 basis points.

这个数字已经非常接近年化2%的水平了。

You know, that's pretty close to a 2% annualized pace.

长期来看，数据可能会小幅回升，但除了关税带来的价格压力缓解之外，工资敏感型服务和住房成本也在稳步改善，再加上伊朗冲突的外溢影响逐渐消退，再加上夏季的季节性因素——通常会让通胀数据走低。

Again, you probably revert somewhat higher than that in the medium term, But in addition to cooling price pressures from tariffs, some steady improvement in wage sensitive services and shelter, and kind of getting past the peak of the spillovers from the Iran conflict, You also get things like summer seasonality, which tends to push inflation readings lower.

最后，到了九月，核心PCE通胀的统计方法还会做一次调整，虽然这并不改变通胀的根本趋势，但我们估计它会把同比通胀率拉低大约20个基点，从而减轻今年第四季度数据可能出现的上行风险。

And then finally, in September, you're going to get these methodological adjustments to core PCE inflation, which while it doesn't change anything fundamental about the underlying inflation trajectory, we do estimate it's gonna take around 20 basis points off of the year on year inflation run rate and maybe limit some of the incremental risk for prints going into Q4.

所以总的来说，我们觉得离2%的目标还差得远，但只要通胀走势朝着正确方向发展，美联储官员保持观望态度就是合理的，数据也会继续支持这种立场，我们认为他们确实仍处于观望状态。

So overall, again, we think you're still a long way from the 2% target, but insofar as Fed officials are comfortable in wait and see mode, as long as inflation is headed in the right direction, the data ought to continue to be supportive of that, And we think that they do remain in that wait and see mode.

明白了。

Okay.

太棒了。

Brilliant.

杰里米，你讲得非常全面，也很清楚。

That's really comprehensive and very clear, Jeremy.

一如既往，谢谢你参与我们的讨论。

Thanks as always for joining us.

祝你这周末在纽约看世界杯决赛看得开心，我们改天再聊。

Enjoy the World Cup final this weekend in in New York, and we'll speak to you soon.

是的。

Yeah.

再见。

Cheers.

现在我们转向韩国，最近几个月韩国的经济和金融市场真是引人注目。

Gonna head over to Korea now, which has been a fascinating economic and financial market story in recent months.

我很高兴邀请到我们的韩国经济学家朴 Jung Woo 参加今天的讨论。

I'm very happy to be joined by Jung Woo Park, our economist for Korea.

Jung Woo，今天请你来真是恰逢其时。

Jung Woo, it's really timely to have you on today.

我们是在韩国央行刚刚做出利率决定后几个小时录制的这段内容。

We're recording this just a few hours after the b o k rate decision.

你能给我们梳理一下韩国央行本周的举措吗？另外，你对未来韩国央行的政策有什么看法？

Can you talk us through what the b o k did this week, but also what are your views, looking forward for the Bank of Korea?

是的。

Yeah.

现在确实是个很有趣的时候，谢谢邀请我参加。

It's a really interesting time, and thanks for having me.

是的。

Yeah.

韩国央行刚刚决定将利率上调25个基点。

The BOK just decide to hike its pulse rate by 25 basis point.

这个举动市场和我们之前都预料到了，所以没什么意外。

That's what's largely expected by market and us, so no surprise.

韩国央行还重申了对经济增长的乐观看法，以及对通胀和金融稳定风险的担忧。

And the BOK also reiterated its very optimistic growth view and the inflation concerns and financial stability risk.

总的来说，他们的立场相当鹰派，但市场早就预期到了。

So, basically, the message is quite hawkish, but the it's been really, you know, the expected by the market.

韩国央行宣布后，市场也松了口气，觉得一切都在预期之内。

So after the b o k decision, market also think that, oh, this is kind of the very, you know, relieved that the everything is within our expectations.

我想更多聊聊未来韩国央行利率走向的风险。

So I'd like to focus more on the risk, you know, the around the future path of the BOK policy rate.

显然，在这次会议前，市场一直很关注是否会连续加息。

So, obviously, you know, the before this meeting, markets were very interested in the possibility of the back to back hikes.

也就是七月和八月连续两次加息的可能性。

So July and then just, you know, August.

所以八月份加息的可能性确实有人在讨论。

So August hike, there was some cash around the August hike as a possibility.

但行长申先生并没有对八月加息做出任何承诺。

But governor Sheen, he didn't make any precommitment to August hike.

相反，他说，央行官员通常都会强调，货币政策要视数据而定。

Instead, he said that, you know, obviously, central bankers, they like to say, like, you know, data dependent monetary policy.

所以，行长申先生正在关注即将公布的数据，比如下周发布的二季度GDP，还有八月初的通胀数据。

So, the governor, Xi, he is looking for some, you know, the incoming data, like, you know, q two GDP next week week and, inflation data in the first week of the, August.

也就是说，在八月会议之前，这两项数据将是韩国央行密切关注的重点。

So, basically, these two data before August meeting, so The UKs are likely to closely watching these two datas.

话虽如此，就概率而言，我们的基本预期仍是下次加息25个基点，但也不能排除连续加息的可能性，只是目前来看这种概率还不高。

Having said that, you know, the I think the in terms of the the probability, we think that the although our base case is that, you know, the quarterly 25 basis point hike, but we think that the risk is there for back to back hike, although the probability is not great current at the moment.

但如果二季度GDP和通胀数据再次出现意外，八月份加息的风险就可能变成现实。

But if we see another surprise from q two GDP and inflation, then I think the, risk can materialize in August.

明白了。

Okay.

这很有帮助。

That's really helpful.

而且，这种可能连续加息的情况确实很有趣，看看他们是怎么管理风险的。

And, certainly very interesting this kind of potential back to back hikes and seeing how they're managing the risks.

另一个明显在韩国发生的大事，就是科技领域的发展。

I mean, the other big thing that's clearly been happening in Korea is is what's been going on in terms of, you know, the tech story.

你能给我们简单讲讲，你觉得这会对经济产生什么影响吗？

You know, can you sort of talk us through a little bit, how you think that is impacting the economy?

从科技这个主题来看，韩国经济面临的主要风险和机会有哪些？

What are the major risks and, I guess, opportunities as well for the Korean economy from the tech, theme?

是的。

Yeah.

科技是核心主题。

Tech is the, main theme.

就连今天的新闻发布会上，行长申也提到，我们应该关注的是低价，而不是股价便宜。

Even, you know, today's, the press conference, governor Shin, he suggests that, we should look at cheap prices rather than cheap stock prices.

不过无论如何，半导体在经济增长和通胀中都扮演着最关键的角色。

But, anyway, semiconductor play the most important role in growth and the inflation.

说到影响，我们可以从直接和间接两个层面来看。

So but in terms of the effect, we can think about, you know, direct and indirect.

直接的影响其实没那么大，因为这个行业本质上是资本密集型的，雇佣的人并不多。

So direct impact is, you know, not great because cheap industry, basically, they are capital intensive, and they don't hire many people.

所以直接带动就业的效果并不明显。

So direct impact is not great.

但间接影响就不同了，最近股价、房价这些都跟科技周期紧密挂钩。

But in terms of the indirect impact, recently, you know, the stock price and the housing prices, everything is, like, you know, closely related to a tech cycle.

今年第一季度和第二季度，半导体出口增长快得离谱，增幅都超过三位数。

So in q one and in q two, you know, the the the the cheap export growth, you know, the triple digit is crazy.

正因如此，第一季度的GDP同比飙升了3.8%。

And the because of that, the, you know, q one GDP growth surged by 3.8% y o y.

我们预计第二季度的增长也会继续高于趋势水平。

And then we also expect, you know, above trend growth in q two.

英国那边也预期芯片行业的带动效应会延伸到非芯片领域。

And the the The UK also, you know, they expect some, you know, the spillover from chip sector to non chip sectors.

至于通胀，更多是资产价格通胀，因为你从股市赚了钱，自然就想拿这笔收益去买房。

And in terms of the inflation, it's more, you know, the related to asset price inflation because, you know, the once you make a lot of the money from stock market, then you want to buy housing with this investment return.

所以英国政府确实很担心这种金融稳定风险。

So so certainly, the government and The UK, they're concerned about, you know, this kind of the financial stability risk.

明白了。

Okay.

金融稳定确实是重点，正如你所说。

And financial stability, clearly, a big focus as you said.

我平时不太关注KOSPI，但一看就觉得波动太大了，市场显然特别在意。

I mean, when I look at the COSPI, not something I look at all that often, but it seems to me incredibly volatile and clearly been a big big focus for the market.

你是怎么看当地股市和金融市场的？

I mean, how do you think about about the the local equity market, the local financial markets there?

显然，波动性非常大。

I mean, there there's obviously a lot of volatility.

货币也很不稳定，最近在走强，但在六月之前曾大幅走弱。

The currency has been very volatile as well, currently strengthening, having having weakened a lot as well in in the run up to June.

这会不会影响你的判断，还是说只是次要因素？

You know, does this complicate the way you think about things, or is it a sort of secondary factor?

是的。

Yeah.

情况真的特别复杂，因为我几十年来从没见过股市这么剧烈的波动。

It's really complicated because I have never seen, you know, this huge volatility in, you know, equity market over the past decades.

每天股价动不动就涨跌百分之十，简直像坐过山车。

So, you know, every day, in in terms of the, like, you know, cheap stock price is 10% up, then 10% down.

确实像坐过山车一样。

It's like, you know, really roller coaster.

这背后有几个原因。

And the there are couple of reasons.

但最主要的原因是那种杠杆型ETF。

And but the main reason is that, you know, this ETF, you know, particular leverage ETF.

大概两个月前，政府推出了一种杠杆型ETF，目的是稳定外汇市场，因为当时很多散户投资者都跑去买海外的ETF，想赚更多钱。

So around about two months ago, the government introduced a leveraged ETF to stabilize FX market because at that time, a lot of the retail investors, they bought overseas ETF to maximize their profits.

正因为这样，政府觉得资本外流的问题一直在持续。

So because of that, the government thought, you know, the capital outflow continues.

于是他们想，如果我们也推出类似的产品，或许就能把资本外流拦下来。

So the government thought that the if we have similar product, then the, you know, capital outflow will stop.

结果呢，这个杠杆ETF非但没稳住市场，反而让波动变得更剧烈了。

So they introduced leverage ETF and but it only amplifying volatility.

当股价上涨的时候，它会把涨势推得更快、更猛。

So when cost p goes up, it really accelerate, you know, cost p rally.

但一旦股价下跌，它也会让跌势加速得更厉害。

But when cost p goes down, it also accelerate, you know, the speed.

现在政府正在考虑要对这种杠杆ETF加强监管，很快就会公布一些具体措施。

So the government now is they are talking about regulating this leveraged ETF product, and they're announce some measures very soon.

这第一个原因就是这个。

That's the the the the first reason.

其次，市场越来越担心芯片周期，尤其是那种变化的变化幅度。

And secondly, markets are increasingly concerned about the the, you know, the chip cycle because in terms of delta, you know, change of change.

现在芯片价格已经涨到了三位数。

So chip prices now is, you know, running at triple digit.

不过今年下半年，价格预计会放缓，这很明显。

But, anyway, in second half of this year, it's supposed to slow down, obviously.

所以市场担心芯片周期可能已经见顶。

So markets are concerned about that the peak of the chip cycle.

另外，市场还担心美国的大型云服务商。

And, you know, the there is also another, you know, the concern around The US hyperscalers.

它们在未来几个月可能会削减资本支出。

They they may reduce CapEx in coming months.

这些供需方面的担忧，正在推高市场的波动性。

So these are, you know, the supply and demand concern driving, you know, the some market volatility.

说得好。

Brilliant.

我觉得夏天尤其值得密切关注。

Well, I think it's something to really keep an eye on during the summer in particular.

你知道，在那些特别平静的夏季月份里，一旦有什么风吹草动，股市就容易承压。

You know, we've seen a number of times in these seriously quiet summer months that equity markets can come under a a bit of pressure if something does start to go wrong.

所以这 definitely 是个需要留意的信号，就像矿井里的金丝雀一样，或者至少是个关键因素，毕竟它在全球科技贸易中举足轻重。

So certainly, will be a place to watch as maybe a canary in the coal mine or or certainly a factor involved in that given its importance in this global tech trade.

一如既往，感谢你参与我们的讨论。

So thanks, as always for joining our string.

今天的分享非常精彩，对我们理解韩国当前的情况帮助很大。

It was super interesting and super helpful for all of us to try and understand a bit more about what's happening in Korea.

谢谢。

Thank you.

在结束之前，我们再把视野放宽一点，看看本周末亚洲其他地区有哪些重要数据发布。

Well, before we wrap up, we're gonna look a little bit wider across Asia for some of the key data points coming out in the weekend.

最引人注目的是印尼央行的决议，我们预计他们会维持利率不变，仍为5.75%。

Most notably, we've got the Bank of Indonesia decision, where we expect them to leave policy rates unchanged at 5.75%.

这家银行不到一个月内已经加息了100个基点，我们认为他们可能会继续使用其他工具，比如外汇干预，来应对金融稳定风险。

The bank's already hiked by a 100 basis points in less than a month, and we think they may continue to use other tools like FX interventions to manage financial stability risks.

另外，新加坡和新西兰也将公布通胀数据。

Elsewhere, we have inflation data out of Singapore and New Zealand.

在新加坡，我们预计核心通胀将升至1.8%，明显高于五月的1.4%，也超过了市场普遍预期。

In Singapore, we expect core inflation to rise 1.8%, quite a big jump from 1.4% in May and above where the consensus is currently sitting.

在新西兰，我们预计第二季度整体CPI环比上涨1.3%，与新西兰联储最新预测基本一致。

In New Zealand, we see headline CPI in q two rising by 1.3 quarter on quarter, which is in line with the RBNZ's updated forecast.

最后是澳大利亚，本月将发布就业报告，我们预计六月就业人数将温和增长，大约在2万左右，符合长期趋势。

Finally, in Australia, we've got the monthly employment report where we do expect employment to rise by around trend, which is 20 k or so in June.

我们还预计失业率会小幅下降，但还不足以让澳洲联储觉得需要立即采取行动。

We also expect a slight drop in the unemployment rate, but nothing to suggest the RBA needs to do anything anytime soon.

好了，这周就先说到这儿。

Well, that's it for this week.

一如既往，感谢收听由约翰·达顿制作和编辑的《周末播客》。

Thanks as always for joining us on the Weekend Podcast produced and edited by John Dalton.

欢迎把这档播客分享给任何可能感兴趣的人。

Please feel free to share the podcast far and wide with anyone you think might be interested.

你可以在苹果、SoundCloud、Spotify 等主流平台点赞并订阅野村的播客。

You can like and subscribe to Nomura's podcast through all the usual channels such as Apple, SoundCloud, and Spotify.

如果你能给我们一些反馈，告诉我们哪些地方可以改进，或者希望听到哪些内容，我们会非常感激。

We'd also be grateful if you could leave us some feedback to let us know what we can do better and what you'd like to hear more of.

你也可以登录 nomuraconnects.com，及时获取最新内容，了解更多不同主题的资讯。

You can also log in to nomuraconnects.com to keep up to date and to hear more on a range of topics.

再次感谢，祝你下周一切顺利。

Thanks once again, and good luck for the week ahead.

在这个复杂多变的世界里，一个市场的日落往往意味着另一个市场的日出，而野村始终放眼未来，帮助客户在今天释放明天的潜力。

In a complex and unpredictable world where a sunset in one market means a sunrise in another, one investment bank always looks beyond the horizon to help our clients release the potential of tomorrow today.

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