马克·麦克林德尔 / 婴儿潮一代的房产财富只是纸上富贵吗？第524期

婴儿潮一代约占澳大利亚和新西兰总人口的20%，却拥有超过一半的私人财富。

Baby boomers make up roughly 20% of the population in Australia and New Zealand, and they own more than half of private wealth.

在新西兰，这部分财富的一半都集中在房产上，而之所以能积累起来，是因为银行愿意以他们能推动升值的资产作为抵押放贷。

In New Zealand, half of that wealth sits in property, and it got there because of the bank's willingness to lend against an asset that they could help inflate.

不过，过去五年里，新西兰的房价发生了很大变化。

A lot's changed with property values in New Zealand over the last five years, though.

移民数量减少，利率上升，而且维持在高位的时间比预期更长，人们对住房危机的定义也从住房短缺转向了供过于求。

Immigration slowed, interest rates went higher, then stayed higher for longer than expected, and the definition of what a housing crisis was shifted from housing shortages to oversupply.

我认为，这些压力可以被看作一种信号：这次情况不同了，或者只是黎明前最黑暗的时刻。

These pressures can be interpreted, I think, as evidence that, hey, this time is different, or it's simply the darkest days before the dawn.

我一直在深入研究房产这个问题，琢磨它未来会不会像过去那样表现。

And I've crawled around a lot in this question of property and whether it will perform the same in the future as it has in the past.

但让我一直想不明白的，是人口结构在未来会起到什么作用。

And the only area that I keep getting stumped on is the role that demographics will play going forward.

现在的婴儿潮一代平均年龄71岁，那些还持有大户型家庭住宅的人，可能正在认真考虑什么时候该出手卖掉。

Now the average baby boomer right now, 71 years old, and the ones that still own the big family home are probably thinking pretty seriously about when they can offload it.

也许他们会把部分卖房所得帮衬子女，或者用这笔资产置换一套更小的住房，迎接人生的下一阶段。

Perhaps they'll help the kids out with some of the proceeds, or they might use the equity to buy something smaller for the next phase of their life.

我每周都会和很多这样的人交谈，他们越来越担心，未来政府会大幅征收财富税。

Now I talk a lot during the week with people like this, and they are increasingly concerned about a future where our government will tax wealth hard.

最近澳大利亚传出的消息，更是加剧了这种担忧。

And recent news coming out of Australia only adds fuel to these fears.

但我也不禁想，如果下一代没有足够的借贷能力来承接未来几年涌向市场的房产，情况会怎样？

I also wonder though what happens if the next generation don't have the borrowing capacity to absorb the supply of property that's going to hit the market in coming years.

要想做好今天的投资，就得看清未来的趋势。虽然有各种方式可以窥见未来，但最有效的方法之一，就是观察人口结构的变化。

To invest well today, it helps to understand what the future might look like, and there's a lot of ways I think that you can kinda glimpse into the future, but probably one of the best ways to do it is just to look at demographics.

人口决定命运——这句话常被归于法国哲学家、社会学奠基人奥古斯特·孔德。

Demographics is destiny, and that's a quote that's most commonly attributed to a guy by the name of Auguste Comte, a French philosopher and founder of sociology.

最近我有幸采访了一位人口学家马克·麦克林德尔，他是澳大利亚的社会研究者、人口学家和未来学家，以研究代际趋势和推广‘Alpha世代’这一概念而闻名。

And I was fortunate recently to be able to speak with a demographer, Mark McCrindle, and he's an Australian social researcher, demographer, and futurist best known for his work on generational trends and for popularizing the term Gen Alpha.

Alpha世代指的是2010年到2024年间出生的孩子们。

That's kids who were born between 2010 and 2024.

所以如果你也有几个这样的孩子，像我一样，一定会觉得这个特别有意思。

So if you have a few of them, like I do, you'll probably find this really interesting.

如果你还想了解不同世代是如何被他们所经历的时代塑造的，以及这如何影响他们对未来房产和财富的看法，这也会很有帮助。

It's also helpful though if you want to understand how generations are formed by the times they've lived through and how that shapes the way that they'll think about property and wealth going forward.

我很感激能有这样多样化的对话。

I'm really grateful to have these diverse types of conversations.

希望你也会喜欢。

I hope you enjoy it as well.

我们开始吧。

Let's get started.

欢迎收听《普通投资者》播客。

Welcome to the Everyday Investor podcast.

我是你的主持人兼理财顾问，达西·翁加罗。

I'm your host and financial adviser, Darcy Ungaro.

如果你喜欢了解普通人如何用传统和新兴的方式，在新时代积累财富，那你来对地方了。

If you like learning about the old and the new ways everyday people can build new wealth for the new world, you're in the right place.

本播客由Swyftx倾情赞助。

This podcast is proudly supported by Swyftx.

在新西兰和澳大利亚拥有超过一百万用户，你有没有想过，加密货币能带你去往何方？

With over 1,000,000 customers across New Zealand and Australia, ask yourself, where can crypto take you?

还有Provincia，专注于为工业和商业地产基金提供批发级接入与管理服务。

And Provincia, specializing in wholesale access to industrial commercial property funds and management services.

简单提醒一下。

Quick disclaimer.

今天谈到的一些观点和投资策略可能并不适合你，甚至可能适得其反。

Some ideas and investment strategies discussed today may not suit your situation and could even backfire.

在采取任何行动之前，最好先获得个性化的财务建议。

Personalized financial advice is always suggested before taking action.

最后，如果你想了解我如何帮你规划KiwiSaver投资或提供财务指导，可以免费预约一个十五分钟的初步咨询。

Lastly, to learn how I can help you with KiwiSaver investment advice or financial coaching, grab a free fifteen minute discovery call.

链接在简介里。

The link is in the description.

我们开始吧。

Let's get started.

开始了。

Started.

欢迎来到节目，马克。

Welcome to the show, Mark.

谢谢你能来。

Thanks for joining me.

比如，斯塔西，

Like, Stasi,

能和你一起真的很棒。

great to be with you.

你把这一代人说成是对前一代的反叛，而不是延续。

You described this generation as a reaction reaction to to what what went went before before and not a continuation.

你这话是什么意思？

What what do you mean by that?

生在一个人工智能和数字技术无处不在的世界，设备、平板、社交媒体对他们来说从来就不是新鲜事物，而是从小就开始接触的东西，这意味着他们成长于一个完全不同的时代。

Well, being born in a world of AI, in a world of digital technology, in a world where the devices and the tablets and the social media is not a novelty, it's been what they've had from the youngest age, means that, yeah, they're shaped in a different era.

比他们早一代的人，出生在九十年代末，那时世界正经历技术变革，但Gen Alpha这一代人，从来就没见过别的世界。

You know, the ones that went before being born from the late nineties, they were being born into a technologically transforming world, but the Gen Alphas have only ever known it.

所以他们不仅是工具上的数字化，更是在连接和内容上具有全球视野，在社交影响渠道上是社交化的，在内容消费方式上是视觉化的——因为他们面对的不是谷歌文章的世界。

And that means that they're not only digital in tool, but they're global in that connectivity and that content, and they're social in terms of the influence channels, and they're visual in terms of how they consume content because it's not a world of Google articles.

而是TikTok短视频的世界。

It's a world of TikTok short form videos.

在这样的环境中出生，在成长的关键阶段被这些技术深刻塑造，让他们和上一代人有了根本的不同。

Being born into that world, being shaped in the formative years by the technologies profoundly impacts them and leaves a difference between them and the ones that went before.

他们是全新现实的开端，而不是回到过去。

So, they're the start of this whole new reality, not a return to the past.

而且，塑造他们的不只是数字技术和人工智能世界。

And, and it's not just the the digital technology and the world of AI that's shaping them.

还有全新的地缘政治格局。

It's the new geopolitical realities.

不再是美国独霸天下的单极世界了。

No longer a unipolar world with The US as the sole superpower.

各地紧张局势频发，竞争也在加剧。

You've got, regional, tension and, and a contest there.

中东地区崛起的势力和各种挑战层出不穷。

You've got the rise of charter and challenges around The Middle East.

全球之间的联系更加紧密，人员流动、交流和商业往来也更加频繁。

You've got more global connections and more global flows through migration and connection and business.

对这一代人来说，这是全新的现实——他们是21世纪第一代成年的人。

So it's a new reality for this new generation, the first coming of age in the twenty first century.

现在能轻易下定论吗？还是得再等一段时间，才能看清这一代人的性格特征？

And is it easy at this stage yet, or do we have to wait for longer before we can kind of label some of the personality traits of this generation?

你提到他们是针对上一代的反叛，但能说他们对变化更包容吗？

You mentioned that it's a reaction to the generation that went before, but can we say if they'll be more tolerant to to change?

还是说，他们会更抗拒变化？

Will they be I guess more resistant to it?

我作为一个X世代的父母，自己就带着几个Alpha世代的孩子，一直在想这个问题。

I'm kind of thinking about this as as a Gen X parent owning a couple owning and operating a couple of Gen Alpha kids myself.

我总在琢磨，他们怎么看待我们这一代，又会怎么看待他们前面那一代人。

I'm always trying to think about how they relate to my generation, but also how they're going to relate to the generation before them too.

对。

Yeah.

这话说得真好。

That's a great point.

我也是同样的情况，身边有Alpha世代的孩子，既通过育儿，也通过研究，亲眼看到了这些变化。

I'm in that same demographic with some Gen Alphas myself and see it firsthand through the parenting as well as the research.

没错，这一代人确实被他们所处的时代塑造，但有时候，这个时代反而会激发他们反其道而行之，形成一种逆流。

And, yes, the the generation is shaped by their times, but, but sometimes those times can create in them a reaction, or you might say a countertrend to the dominant theme.

比如，成长在数字环境里的一代，现在却开始对数字生活产生反弹——他们想掌控技术，而不是被技术掌控，看清了技术的弊端，开始回归线下，重新拥抱传统活动；甚至在教育环境里，学校也在主动减少技术使用，比如提醒学生：

And, you know, a generation growing up digital, we're seeing pushback on sometimes that digital and using technology to control technology, seeing the downside of the technology, and indeed, moving back offline and welcoming traditional activities or indeed growing up in a technology in a technology saturated time in schooling where schools are dialing down that technology or saying, hey.

在学校里把手机收起来，或者像澳大利亚最近通过的法律，禁止16岁以下的孩子开设社交媒体账号。

Phone's away in our schools or legislation like in Australia that's recently passed banning social media accounts for under sixteens.

换句话说，我们现在正处在一个时代，十五年前、二十年前那种对科技的乐观情绪——认为社交媒体能连接世界、赋予人们发声的平台、让每个人都能成为内容创作者——正在转变为对科技的怀疑态度，开始把大型科技公司描绘成制造成瘾产品、伤害青少年身心发展的企业。

So in other words, we're in an era now where the tech optimism of fifteen, twenty years ago that social media was gonna connect the world, that it gave voice and platform, that it allowed everyone to be content creators, is is changing to language of tech skepticism, language defining big tech companies as creating products that are addictive and causing harm and impairing the development of young people.

短短不到二十年，这种转变已经发生，而这就是千禧一代成长的环境。

It's been quite the shift in less than two decades, and that's the environment into which Gen Alpha are being raised.

所以，这不仅是科技本身的趋势，更是对这种趋势的反弹，以及我们开始看到的以人为核心的发展方向。

So not only is it the trend of technology, but it's the countertrend of the pushback to that and a human centric future that we're starting to see.

人们逐渐意识到，即使在未来，我们能赋予他们的最有价值的技能，依然是那些人类独有的能力。

A recognition that even in the future, the most valuable skills we can equip them with are those distinctively human ones.

这与之前我们所看到的趋势相比，已经有了明显转变。

And this has been a shift from from the the trend we'd seen prior.

所以，没错，他们确实正被一个新时代塑造，这意味着科技未必会主导一切。

So, yeah, definitely being shaped in a new era, and that means that technology won't necessarily be central to everything.

事实上，它甚至可能催生我们已经开始看到的那些转变——重新回归以人为核心的价值。

In fact, it might even create some of those alternate shifts that we're starting to see the reemergence of the of the human centricity.

今天早上我其实刚和一个朋友聊到这个。

And so like I was and I was talking to a friend this morning actually about this.

我们那天聊得特别有意思，聊到了音乐。

It was quite interesting, the conversation we were having because we were talking about music.

后来谈到我们年轻时听的音乐，小时候几乎全盘接受了父母那代人的品味，像是六七十年代嬉皮士风格的那些东西。

And we we got onto the topic of music that we listened to when we were younger which when we were really young there was it was almost like we adopted the musical styles of our parents when we were really young which kind of harken back to like the late sixties and early seventies like the hippie movement.

再后来我们这一代成长于垃圾摇滚时代，从那以后，我就觉得摇滚乐好像就一蹶不振了。

And then we grew up generation x grew up in in the grunge movement and it's just feels kind like rock and roll has been dead ever since then.

但现在我看我孩子，他们开始对珍珠酱乐队和涅槃乐队特别着迷，我发现大概从2010年左右开始，乐高、星球大战这些我小时候熟悉的东西又重新火了起来。

But I'm I'm looking at my kids now and they're really starting to get into things like Pearl Jam and Nirvana and I noticed that probably I think it was around 2010 really started to pick up things like Lego and Star Wars and all these things that I remember growing up with kind of reinventing themselves.

这感觉就像每隔三十年，就有一种代际的回响。

So it's almost like there's this thirty year generational echo of some sort.

是的。

Yeah.

我想听听你对这个现象怎么看。

And I just just wanna get your thoughts on that.

这真的是一个真实存在的循环吗？有没有什么研究证实过？

Like is that a real cycle, a documented phenomenon?

确实如此。

And It is.

这真的会影响市场吗？

Does it does it actually affect other things like like markets?

是的。

Yeah.

确实会。

It does.

正如你所说，社会的潮流回摆，不会在十年或十五年内就完成。

And that's about right, Darcy, as you've explained that, that the pendulum swing in society, doesn't change in ten years or fifteen years.

要看到完整的复古趋势、历史重现或对过去的重新关注，通常需要大约三十年。

It takes more like thirty years to see a full retro trend to see that full reversion, that historical recurrence or that reengaging, in the things of the past.

因为从社会学角度看，一代人大约是十五年。

And, and that's because while a generation lasts fifteen years, the that that's in a sociological sense.

但从生物学角度看，一代人更接近三十年，因为那是一个人从出生到为人父母所需的时间。

A biological sense is that generations are more like thirty years because that's the length of time from when someone is born to when they have children of their own.

现在澳大利亚和新西兰的平均生育年龄是三十出头。

In Australia and New Zealand, it's early thirties now where the there's the median is the median age of of birth.

所以这些初为父母的人都是三十岁出头才组建家庭的，这么一来，影响阿尔法世代的其实不是Z世代。

So so parents are in their early thirties when they start their families, and therefore, it's not generation zed that is influencing the Gen Alphas.

千禧一代也就是前一代人，也就是Y世代，你知道的。

It's the millennials, you know, the generation that went before, generation y.

那30年的周期轮回，就像你说的那样，在音乐、流行文化、电影、玩具还有时尚领域里都能看到。

And that that 30 return, is what you see, as you say, in music, in popular culture, in movies, in in toys, in fashions.

我想，从商业角度来看。

I guess, like, from a business sense.

对吧？

Right?

我想你们会承担更少的风险。

I guess you're taking less risk.

既然你知道这东西对父母很管用，而且他们迟早会怀旧，那为什么不把它重新包装一下，再卖给孩子们呢？

If you knew it worked well with the parents and you know the parents probably gonna be nostalgic at some stage, well, why not just reinvent it, repackage it, serve it up to the kids.

你其实没冒什么风险。

You're not taking much risk.

我想好莱坞也没冒什么大风险。

I guess Hollywood's not taking much risk.

真正消亡的，说到底只有摇滚乐，挺可惜的。

The only thing that dies really is rock and roll sadly.

不过也许我也不太确定。

But maybe I don't know.

说不定哪天摇滚乐还会复兴。

Maybe we'll get a revival there.

走着瞧吧，看看会怎样。

We'll see we'll see what happens.

对吧？

Right?

那种情况也可能出现。

That that might come too.

而且你发现，黑胶唱片又回来了，还有卡带、随身听，人们更愿意用有线耳机，而不是无线的。

And, you know, you do find vinyl is back for some cassette tapes, Walkmans, corded earbuds rather than the wireless ones.

现在各种复古潮流都在兴起，因为大家觉得二三十年前，那时候日子简单多了。

There's there's all of these trends because there's a sense that twenty to thirty years ago, you know, with simpler times.

九十年代末到两千年初，世界没那么复杂，是模拟时代，数字世界刚起步，虽然令人兴奋，但远没有今天这么繁琐，这种对比正是怀旧的根源。

Early two thousands or late nineties, less complexity, more of an analog world, the excitement of the emerging digital world, but, but a lot less complicated than what we have today, and that's always a driver of nostalgia.

而且这还为父母和孩子提供了一个共同话题——正好孩子进入青春期时，父母也开始回想自己当年的少年时光，和现在孩子的生活有多不一样。

And, of course, it creates a common point for parents and children to connect, you know, right at the time the kids are hitting their teens, the parents are are starting to reflect on, you know, their own teenage years and how it was different to that of their children.

如果孩子能和父母一起翻出那些尘封的老物件——老音乐、旧爱好、桌游什么的，就能很好地拉近两代人的距离，让新一代重新爱上这些传统的消遣方式。

And if the kids can connect in with some of the the old time, old school, hidden away, you know, items that the parents can pull out, some of that old music or hobbies or interests or board games, then that's a great thing to bond the generations and reengage that latest generation with some of those traditional pastimes.

人工智能显然是个巨大的颠覆者，可能让像我这一代人感到焦虑，毕竟我们快走到职业生涯的尾声，眼看就要退休了。

AI is obviously a massive, massive disruptor, which probably is giving a lot of people in my generation a bit of anxiety as they're kind of coming in for the final approach for their own careers before retirement.

与此同时，他们家里可能正养着生成AI的孩子，这些孩子才刚开始思考：毕业后下一步该往哪儿走？

At the same time, they're probably raising Gen Alphas at home who are just now starting to think about, well, what's the next step after school finishes?

所以，随着人工智能以这样的速度发展，教育还像对我们这一代人那样，是值得的投资吗？

So with AI accelerating the way it is, is education still an investment the same way it was for my generation?

那你觉得会是哪一种呢？

And what kind do of see there?

是的。

Yeah.

但毫无疑问，教育依然是种投资。

Well, it still is for sure.

只不过现在更看重那些人际交往能力和持久的技能。

But but what it's focusing in on is some of those people skills and timeless skills.

因为只要能交给技术的事，我们都会交出去，而且很明显，技术在处理那些程序性任务上比我们强得多。

Because anything that we can outsource to technology, we will, and we we clearly are seeing that technology does better than we do, a lot of those procedural tasks.

就连对学生表现的长期数据研究也显示，如今的年轻人在计算能力和读写能力上有所下降，注意力、记忆力和批判性思维能力也在减弱。

And so we have even in studying, data, longitudinal data around student performance, we're seeing a decline in things like numeracy and literacy with today's young people, but also a decline in things like attention, memory, and critical thinking skills.

其实，这些方面我们也能理解原因。

Now, you know, we can understand why in a lot of those areas.

既然技术能帮我写报告，我干嘛还要自己拼写呢？

Why do I need to spell when the technology will write the report for me?

既然动动手指就能查到世界上任何信息，我干嘛还要自己算呢？

Why do I need to add up when I'm a click or two away from any piece of information on the planet?

从这个角度来说，我可能也不太需要记那些东西了。

And I don't probably need memory in that sense as well.

但如果我们让技术完全主导一切，却不培养系统性思维，不锻炼批判性思考能力，不重视沟通、连接、化解分歧、领导力，以及在复杂环境中专注、思考和做决定的能力，那我们就会失去作为人的本质，也丢掉了最珍贵的那些能力。

But but, you know, if we let technology totally, guide everything and we don't have that structured thinking, we don't develop the critical thinking skills, We don't hone in on, developing particularly those people skills of communication, connection, bridging gaps, leadership, and indeed the ability to focus, to think and and and make a decision amidst complexity, then we're losing what it is to be human and the best of those skills.

所以我觉得教育比以往任何时候都更重要，只是重点得放在真正关键的地方。

So I think education is more important than ever, but in the areas that matter.

也许我们不再需要死记硬背那么多事实了，就像教育从算尺进化到计算器、再到电脑，现在又走向人工智能一样，学习的内容本身也会跟着调整。

And maybe we won't need to learn the facts as much, and maybe, just as education has adapted from slide rules to calculators to computers, and maybe even into the world of AI, it will adapt what we learn.

我们可能不再需要死记公式，也不必再精通过去的那种数学结构，甚至某些语法也不必再强求，但真正需要打磨的，是那些 uniquely human 的能力，还有不少实用技能和手艺活。

We probably don't need to memorize formulas as much, and we may not need to, know that same mathematical structure or, even perhaps some of the grammar that we knew of the past, but we will need to, hone those those distinctively human skills and probably some of the practical and trade skills as well.

过去几年里，职业教育、技术工种和学徒制，以及就业准备培训，迎来了巨大的复兴，我们已经连续十年追踪这个趋势了。

One area of education that's had a massive resurgence in the last few years, and we've been tracking this year on year now for ten years, is the vocational, skills, the trades and apprenticeships, and the, the job readiness, training.

在过去二三十年里，家长们在考虑孩子毕业后该走哪条路时，普遍更倾向上大学，而不是传统意义上的技术工种、学徒培训或实操技能。

So for the best part of two or three decades, you've had parents, as they think about where they want their children to go post school with a preference to university over maybe some of those traditional trades, apprenticeships, and, and, traditional skills.

但过去几年里，这个差距已经缩小了。现在，家长们，包括国家研究机构也普遍认为，孩子更应该进入就业市场，走上一条通往职业发展的道路，比如传统手艺、学徒制和技能型培训，因为他们知道这些领域不容易被人工智能取代。

But we've seen that gap closed in the last few years, and now parents, you know, national researcher is likely to say they want their children to get into the jobs market, into a pathway that leads to a career, into things like traditional trades and apprenticeships, the skills based training, because they know that that's not going to be easily outsourced to AI.

没错，我们确实处在一个知识经济时代，未来也离不开科技。

So yes, we're in a knowledge economy, and yes, the future is technology.

但有时候，如果能给年轻人提供更多元的技能，尤其是那些尚未被技术颠覆的传统领域，反而能真正帮他们立足。

But sometimes, by equipping young people with skills beyond that and maybe into some of those, non, disrupted traditional areas that's gonna skill them up.

在这个时代，年轻人以后随时可以回过头去拿学位，路径更灵活了。但在生活成本高企、人工智能冲击严重的当下，就业准备能力可能才是关键。

In a world where they can plug in and get degrees down the track, there's more pathways and flexibility around that, but maybe jobs readiness is key in a cost of living challenge and in an area disrupted by AI.

明白了。

Got it.

这挺好的。

That's cool.

从婴儿潮一代到X世代、千禧一代，再到未来的Alpha世代，这个趋势的影响有多大？不仅体现在伴随而来的各种金融服务上，更关键的是，它会加剧财富不平等吗？

From boomers to Gen X, millennials, to then eventually Gen Alpha presumably, But how influential will this trend be, not just in, you know, all the financial services that accompany that, but how influential will this trend be in exacerbating wealth inequality?

这个影响相当大。

That's pretty significant.

历史上从未有过这样的情况：占人口20%的澳大利亚和新西兰婴儿潮一代，却拥有超过一半的私人财富，而且大部分都集中在家庭房产，还有一些其他投资。

You've never before had 20% of the population, which is the baby boomers in Australia and New Zealand, owning more than 50% of the national private wealth and most of that in in property in in in the family home and and maybe some other investments beyond.

所以，五分之一的人拥有超过一半的财富，这已经很惊人了，更何况再过二十年，这些财富大多会传给下一代。

And so, you know, if one in five owns more than half, it's pretty significant, particularly when you wind the clock forward over two decades and much of that gets passed on.

我们正朝着这个局面一路走去。

And, and that's that's the situation that we're headed to.

人们自然会认为，年长一代的经济份额应该比他们的 population 比例更高，毕竟他们积累了一辈子的财富。

Now you'd expect the older generations to have a bigger economic share than their population share.

但历史上从没出现过20%的人口拥有超过50%的财富。

That's wealth accumulation over their years, but you've never before had had 20% earning more than 50%.

我们正站在财富积累的顶峰，这种局面很可能再也无法重现——因为他们赶上了整整五十年的经济奇迹：房价持续上涨、经济相对稳定、房价相对于收入来说更低，再加上半个世纪的人口增长和移民潮带来的增值。

And so we are at the high watermark of wealth attainment, probably not to be equaled again, and that's because they have lived through a 50 cent a fifty year, a half century economic miracle of property price appreciation, of of pretty stable economies, and of of lower cost housing relative to earnings and yet appreciation through migration of population growth over over five decades.

所以他们过得非常好，而且会把这些财富传下去。

So so they've done very well, and they'll pass that on.

对于那些父母，或者现在更常见的是祖父母拥有这些财富的人来说，这些资产很大一部分最终都会传给下一代。

And for those who have parents or actually now research more likely grandparents with that largesse, of course, much of that will be passed on.

事实上，这一代退休人士活得更久、更活跃，晚年还不断升级住房、换车、多旅行，开销也增加了。但过去十年我们跟踪发现，他们的财富不但没减少，反而增长了——虽然他们退休后花了一些钱，但资产升值的速度更快，远远超过了支出。

In fact, even though this is a generation of retirees who are living longer and active later and spending more as they upgrade homes, as they upgrade cars, travel more, and the like, That money over the last ten years of our tracking it has actually increased, not decreased, since they're since they moved out of full time earnings, because even though they've been spending a bit, the assets have been going up fast, they've spent it.

所以我们不认为，他们会把这笔钱在养老阶段花光。

So we don't expect that to be, spent or or or used up through their aged care, life stage.

相反，大部分财富最终会传给下一代，当然，不是每个人都能平等地获得。

Rather much of it, most of it will be passed on, but not equally, of course.

那些祖父母是婴儿潮一代、却没有继承到资产的人，就会被排除在外。

And so you are gonna get those, who don't have that who don't have that access, because their grandparents are baby boomers, but don't have that that asset.

所以财富的分配并不均衡。

And so it's not equally, shared.

衡量收入差距的基尼系数，过去在新西兰和澳大利亚这类国家一直保持在比较健康的状态。

The Gini coefficient, which is the measure of the spread of income, has been pretty healthy in countries like New Zealand and Australia.

我们曾经是崇尚平等的社会，郊区是各种职业人群混居的地方，大家彼此相邻，普通工薪阶层只要收入稍微好一点，就能买得起一套家庭住房。

That is that we have been lands of egalitarianism, lands of equality where the suburbs, where the melting pots of of all the of all the vocations, and you rub shoulders with all types, and indeed, you know, the average person on an income, maybe an income and a bit, could afford a a family home.

但这种情况已经有所改变，未来基尼系数会上升，意味着财富越来越集中在少数人手里。

But but that's that's changed a little bit, and so we will start to see that Gini coefficient, that spread of income move up as a coefficient, which means fewer end up with a little bit more.

所以这就是随之而来的一些影响。

And so that's some of the ramifications that come.

不过话说回来，即便有这些预测，我们在财富和收入分配上的公平程度，依然远高于欧洲大部分地区，更不用说绝大多数新兴国家了。

Mind you, even with the forecast, we're still far more equitable in that wealth distribution and certainly the income distribution than much of Europe and certainly most of the emerging world.

第一批转移财富的婴儿潮一代，在出售企业或房产时，很可能还能拿到不错的溢价。

The boomers who are first to transfer their wealth are likely going to get a premium when they go to sell their businesses, they go to sell their properties.

但我猜，如果20%的人口掌握了50%的财富，而且大部分都集中在房产上，那当越来越多的人陆续抛售这些房产时，市场上的供应量势必会大幅增加，而买家的数量却未必跟得上。

But I'm guessing if 20% of the population is holding on to 50% of the wealth and most of that is in property, then surely as you get a bigger wave of people eventually selling those properties that should in theory kind of flood the market with supply relative to the buyers that are out there available to buy it.

所以理论上，情况可能会反过来，对吧？

So presumably, it will potentially kind of flip the other way, right?

也就是这些婴儿潮一代的财富，尤其是后半段的那部分，可能会重新估值。

Where there's a revaluation of what that boomer wealth is, especially for the second half of it.

这样理解对吗？

Does that make sense?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

十年前，我们人口的中位年龄还在三十多岁。

The median age moving up a decade or so ago, the midpoint in our populations was in the mid thirties.

再过十年，就会逼近四十出头，这说明60岁和20岁的人口数量都比以往更多了，过去那种底部宽、顶部窄的年龄金字塔，正慢慢变得越来越方正。

In a decade's time, it'll be edging closer to the early forties, which just highlights that there's more people aged 60 and age 20 than ever before where our population pyramids of age and size with more younger people, fewer older people are starting to become more rectangular.

这就是人口老龄化的趋势。

That's the aging profile.

所以，你可能会觉得，家庭住房的数量比能买得起的年轻人多得多。

So, yes, you you might expect that, that, you know, we've got more family homes than younger people coming through to be able to buy them.

那这会带来什么影响呢？

And what does that do?

更别提你刚才提到的那些企业了，达西。

Let alone, you know, some of those businesses as you mentioned, Darcy.

但所有这些因素里，真正改变局面、推高需求的，是移民。

But but the big x factor in all this that changes the equation that ups the demand is migration.

澳大利亚和新西兰的人口增长主要靠移民，而不是自然增长，现在移民对人口增长的贡献已经占到了六到七成。

And Australia and New Zealand have been growing very strongly through migration and not relying on natural increase, and that is now the migration component to population growth is between 6070% of all of the increase.

所以，住房需求依然超过供给。

And so the demand still exceeds supply when it comes to housing.

因此，我觉得那些空巢老人搬离后留下的房子，需求还会持续存在，而且未来还会有更多人需要这类房源。

And so, yes, I think that there's still gonna be ongoing demand for those downsizing baby boomer homes as they move out of those those empty nests, and and I think that there's more coming through that'll still demand them.

在商业方面，我也认为新一代创业者依然有机会接手和购买现有企业。

And I think on the business side as well, there's still opportunities for an entrepreneurial generation coming through to look to to buy businesses.

所以，我觉得需求依然非常强劲，我们不太可能看到像日本那样的房价崩盘——日本老龄化严重、生育率低，却没有移民来缓冲影响。

So, yeah, I think that the demand is still very strong, and we probably aren't gonna see the price collapses that you've seen in places like Japan, for example, that has the aging curve, that has the low fertility rates, but but doesn't have migration to buffer it.

这很有意思。

That's interesting.

说到通胀，其实也跟这个有关，我挺想以后深入聊聊通胀的机制，因为我经常谈到这个话题。

So in terms of inflation, is kind of connected in a way, wouldn't mind kind of unpacking inflation dynamics in the future as well because it's something that I talk a lot about.

持续的通胀会不会其实是个人口结构问题？比如劳动力老龄化，产出减少，但消费却依然旺盛？

Could persistent inflation actually be a demographic problem because of an aging workforce producing less while consuming still like a lot?

这会不会成为未来的一种结构性通胀问题？

Could that be a structural inflationary problem going forward?

是的。

Yeah.

毫无疑问。

Definitely.

你知道的。

You know?

在澳大利亚，经济学家常提到推动经济发展的三个P。

And, in Australia, you know, the economists talk about the three p's of growing an economy.

第一个P是人口。

The the first p is population.

你知道的。

You know?

让更多人进来，GDP总量就会增长，因为国内需求增加了，这正是我们国家一直以来依赖的模式。

Just get more people in, and GDP in total will grow because you're creating more domestic demand, and and that's what our our countries have been relying on.

但这种做法也有局限，单纯增加人口当然会带来一些负面影响。

But there are limits to that, and there's a downside, of course, of just bringing more people in.

可能会造成短期的技能缺口。

It might plague short term skill gaps.

虽然能刺激内需，但也会带来社会成本，长期来看还会拖累经济，因为如果不能提升生产率，政府的长期支出就会受影响。

It might create domestic demand, but it has it comes at some social cost and certainly at long term economic cost because if it's not bringing a productivity benefit, it does impair long term government spend.

第二个是参与率。

The second p is is participation.

让更多人进入劳动力市场，创造价值、贡献力量，但这一块增长并不明显。尽管现在有不错的托育服务、优厚的产假制度，也有完善的重返职场通道，帮助那些因伤病或育儿离开的人重新就业，这些条件都具备了。

So you get more people in an economy, in a society to to be in the workforce through adding value and contributing, and and that has not seen much of an increase because even though there's good childcare services, there's there's great parental leave so people can keep the job and get back into work, there's good return to job pathways for those through injury or or maybe getting back into the workforce after parenting, All of that is there.

但参与率的提升却几乎看不到。

We're hardly seeing any increase in participation.

第三个是生产率，也就是每个人每工作一小时，都能创造更大的产出。

And the third p of productivity, that is every person with every hour they're prepared to work delivering greater outcomes.

这方面我们也看到了明显的停滞。

We're also seeing a lot of stagnation there.

虽然我们有技术，还有人工智能，按理说生产力应该在上升，但实际上并没有。

Even though we've got technology, we've got AI, you'd think that productivity would be on the rise, but it's not.

于是，政府就特别依赖人口增长——通过移民来推动经济、填补空缺、刺激需求，从而拉动GDP增长。

And so what that has led to is governments really leaning on the one p of population growth through migration to build the economy, to fill the gaps, to create more demand, and to, to to grow GDP.

虽然整体GDP还在缓慢增长，但人均GDP实际上一直在下滑，或者至少是停滞不前。

And, and while GDP as a whole has been ticking along, GDP per capita per person has has actually been pretty much in decline, if not, you know, stagnant.

我们现在就处在这个状态。

And, and that's where we're at at the moment.

这就导致了通胀：需求增加了，但没有相应的生产力提升来支撑。

So that leads to inflation because you got more demand, but there's not the productivity benefit, to to flow from that.

经济里根本没有多少生产力方面的投入。

There's not the productivity investment in the economy.

这纯粹是需求在硬撑。

It's just raw demand.

所以我认为，这是我们各国面临的最大挑战。

So I think that's the big term challenge, in our countries.

经济停滞不前，生产力又提不上去，如果参与度和附加值没有明显提升，最终经济学家就只能越来越依赖移民这个杠杆——这正是我们眼下正在经历的情况。

And, of course, it's a vicious cycle as as the economy runs flat, as productivity can't be lifted, if we're not getting greater increase in participation and value add, you just end up, economists do, relying more and more on that migration or population lever, And that's what we're seeing at the moment.

所以我觉得，关于经济增长的方向，还有很多长远的问题需要思考，而破解生产力难题，正是财政部门和政府最该集中精力解决的。

So I think there are some long term questions around the direction of growing the economy, and cracking that productivity nut is a big one that treasurers and governments really need to focus on.

我想回到房地产话题，因为我知道很多观众都很关心房产，不管是自己的房产价值，还是投资组合。

I want to go back to property because I know that a lot of people watching are quite interested in property, whether it's their own property values or whether it's their property investment portfolio.

你的某些研究显示，拥有住房仍然是年轻澳大利亚人和新西兰人最首要的追求。

And some of your research I think shows homeownership remains the number one aspiration of young Australian there's Australian there's young Australians and New Zealanders.

但住房负担能力的数据却非常严峻，除非利率大幅下降，或者房价出现急剧下跌，否则根本无解。

Yet the data on affordability of that housing is brutal without either getting a significant reduction in interest rates or dramatic fall in house prices.

现在的情况简直陷入僵局。

It's kind of like a bit of a stalemate.

你觉得对阿尔法一代来说，买房还是会遥不可及的梦想吗？

So do you think home ownership will remain just a dream for Generation Alpha?

还是说，我们有理由保持乐观，比如利率或房价未来真的会下降？

Or do you think that we might have reason to be optimistic either with falling interest rates or falling house prices in a way?

新西兰和澳大利亚历来对房产有着极高的向往，正如你所说，这一代年轻人也把拥有房产当作首要期望。

Well, we're at such a strong aspiration historically in New Zealand and Australia, and currently with the next generation, as you said, the number one expectation or hope that they have.

我们的研究还发现，18到24岁的年轻人第二大担忧，就是这辈子可能永远买不起房。

And the number number two fear in our research that young people had, and I'm talking about those 18 to 24, was that they'd never be able to afford a home.

所以这依然是一个强大的驱动力。

So it remains a strong driver.

正因为有这样的强烈愿望，年轻人正在想办法实现它。

And with that as a strong aspiration, young people are finding a way to get there.

他们的方式跟以前不一样了。

They're doing it differently.

新西兰或澳大利亚的房产梦，现在看起来已经跟过去不太一样了。

So the the New Zealand property dream or the Aussie dream, is just looking a bit different.

也许未来更可能是买个酒吧，而不是独栋房子。

It's maybe more likely to be in a pub and not a detached home.

更多人选择在郊区，而不再只盯着首府城市。

It's in regional areas, not just in capital cities.

这背后靠的是父母的支持，不只是传统的储蓄。

It's achieved with the help of the bank of mom and dad, not just traditional savings.

实现的时间也比过去推迟了，不再是二十出头，而是快三十岁的时候。

It's happening a little later in life, like more like the early thirties rather than the early twenties that we saw in the past.

有时候是兄弟姐妹一起凑钱，或者父母帮忙担保贷款，甚至采用合购的方式。

It's it's happening sometimes with siblings coming together or with parents underwriting sometimes the loans or or maybe, with group purchasing.

也可能是那种‘红背心’模式，年轻人说：嘿，你瞧。

Or maybe it's the red vesta where you've got young people saying, you know what?

我买不起想住的地方，但我能买得起别的房子。

I can't afford to buy where I wanna live, but I can afford to buy something.

我就在郊区或者便宜点的地方买一套。

I'll buy at a regional area or a lower cost place.

然后租出去，自己住到想住的地方。

I'll rent it out, and I'll live, where I wanna live.

他们照样在往上爬房产阶梯。

And they're still getting on that property ladder.

所以我们看到，买房的梦想正在被重新定义，我觉得这是件好事，因为他们找到了实现目标的路径，因为历史证明，房产是上一代人积累财富的关键工具。

So we're just seeing that property dream become reinvented, and I think that's a great thing that they're finding a way to get there because it has been shown historically to be the key key wealth vehicle of the previous generations.

这不仅是因为房价上涨，还因为它能强制储蓄，让他们有目标去偿还，也有动力更努力工作，这种驱动力非常强。

Not only because of the increase in prices, but because it creates a forced savings mechanism where they have something to pay off and they have something to work harder for, and, and there's great motivation around that.

这意味着他们的钱投入了贬值的资产，而不是无形资产或贬值的消费支出，这对下一代来说是个好事情。

That means that their money is being put into a depreciating asset, not intangibles or depreciating expenditure, and that's a good thing for the next generation.

这是在

It's at

组建一个稳固家庭的核心所在。

the core of forming a strong household itself.

对吧？

Right?

如果你真的拥有那个用来组建家庭的住所，那对社会凝聚力以及代际财富的延续来说，肯定都是好事。

If you actually own that dwelling that you're forming that family within, that that's got to be a good thing for things like social cohesion and and and also intergenerational wealth thinking continuity.

所以咱们想想看，到了2030年，甚至2030到2035年，Alpha世代开始进入职场，组建他们自己的家庭。

So if if we think right by 2030, generation alpha, maybe twenty thirty, twenty thirty five, they start entering the workforce and starting to form their own households.

从投资和创业的角度来看，现在投资者该怎么做，才能抓住这一代阿尔法人群的趋势呢？

Coming at this from an investment opportunistic entrepreneurial point of view, What should business what should investors be doing right now to position for that that trend for for Gen Alpha kinda doing that thing?

关键是要理解这种需求和机会，并做出回应。我认为，由于下一代的需求，房产依然是一个非常有前景的资产。

Well, the aim to understand this this need and this opportunity and and respond to it, I think property is a a strong vehicle for the future because of this next generational demand.

从主流角度看，房产依然占据主导地位，而且具备这些优势。

From a mainstream perspective, property remains dominant and has that benefit.

就像你刚才说的，达西，它还有社会层面的好处。

As you just said, Darcy, it's got the social benefit.

这不仅仅是一笔投资贷款。

It's a it's not just an investment loan.

这是你真正住进去的地方。

It's something you live in.

它能帮你建立家庭。

It does allow you to start the family.

它给你带来安全感。

It gives you that security.

它能为你积累一笔养老积蓄，真正成为退休生活的基石。

It gives you that that nest egg, and indeed, it becomes that foundation for retirement.

在澳大利亚，数据显示养老金或退休投资基金只占人们依赖资产的一小部分。

In Australia, the data shows that superannuation or those retirement investment funds are just a small proportion of what people rely on.

家庭住房仍然是其中占比更大的部分。

The family home is still the larger proportion of that.

所以，房产本身就有其独特优势，我认为它对人们依然非常有吸引力。

So, it's got a benefit in its in its own right, and I think it remains very popular for them.

所以要注意，尽管现在的出生率比过去低，但从绝对数量上看，新西兰和澳大利亚的新生儿数量却创下了历史新高，因为我们的人口基数更大了。

So, yeah, keep in mind that even though we've got a smaller birth rate now than we had in the past, in numerical terms, the births in New Zealand and Australia are year on year up there as high as they've ever been, because we've got larger populations.

因此，即使出生率下降，庞大的人口基数依然能维持很高的新生儿数量。

So a lower birth rate across a larger population will still provide those numbers.

所以，结合移民趋势来看，Alpha一代将成为有史以来规模最大的一代。

So generation alpha, when you add the migration patterns, will be the largest generation we've ever had.

因此，我们根本不用担心人口减少或萎缩的问题。

Therefore, we're not approaching any sort of population declines or or even consolidation.

因此，住房供应仍然赶不上需求，这依然是个不错的投资机会。

That demand, therefore, will still exceed the supply which we've been able to build housing, and it remains a strong investment opportunity.

而且你看，商业地产的价格也在上涨。

You're also seeing property in the commercial space rise.

物流、仓储以及其他用途的房产需求依然强劲。

You know, logistics and and and property being used for warehousing and other other forms are remained strong.

初创公司和小企业还在寻找办公空间。

You've got still start ups and and small business looking for some office space.

无论是商业地产还是住宅市场，未来需求都会持续存在，这种投资方式更稳妥，我觉得下一代人最终还是会转向它，尽管他们在年轻时可能会短暂地热衷一些另类投资。

So so it's in the commercial space as well as the the residential space that you'll still see demand into the future, and that remains more of a proven vehicle that I think you'll you'll find, this next generation will move into, notwithstanding a little bit of a flurry with some of these alternative investments in their younger years.

有意思。

Interesting.

你其实是在说，因为移民带来了人口增长，即使面临不少挑战，整体来看仍然是个好消息。

But what what you're basically saying is because of immigration, because we have a growing population base, even though there's a lot of headwinds coming our way, it's actually kind of a good news story.

对吧？

Right?

因为如果消费者群体更大，就会有更多商业活动来服务这些人，从而对住房等有限资源提出更高需求。

Because if if we have a a larger consumer base, then there's gonna be more business activity to serve those consumers and they'll put greater demand on finite resources like housing.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Exactly.

这种需求对国内经济有积极影响。

And so that demand has a positive benefit for a domestic economy.

而且从海外移民的角度来看，来的大多是年轻有抱负的人，很多是学生——这是主要群体之一，还有技术移民签证持有者。

But also the matter of that demand in terms of overseas arrivals, you're getting, you know, young and ambitious, often students because that's a big category of the arrivals, and secondary skilled visa holders.

他们有收入，也在做贡献。

So they're earning, and they're making contributions.

同时，他们还保持着与世界其他地区的联系，未来可能会在那里开展业务或建立合作关系。

And they also have connections back to other parts of the world where they will look to have business interests and connections.

这带来了全球性的连接，也把全球商业互动带入了我们的本地经济，从中长期来看，这种影响是积极的。

So it brings a global connectivity, and it brings a global business interaction into our local economies, and that's been shown to be positive over the medium term.

所以，没错，它确实能带来经济收益。

So, yes, it it does create economic benefits.

作为Gen Alpha孩子的家长，我现在特别关注这个问题，因为我的孩子正处于学习理财和财富积累的关键阶段。我想让他们不仅懂得怎么赚钱，更懂得怎么让钱增值、怎么管理它。

From a parent of Gen Alpha again, I'm thinking a lot at the moment because of where my kids are at in the spectrum around things like financial literacy and wealth building, giving them the right smarts and also just the right skill sets, I guess you could say, to just not only make money but how to grow money, how to handle it.

根据你的研究，如果我们作为家长想提前为孩子做好准备，而不是把责任全丢给国家或者指望大学教育来解决，那我们在家里该跟Gen Alpha的孩子说些什么呢？

Based on your research, if if we as parents are trying to prepare our kids and not just leave it to the state to sort it out or or a university degree to sort it out, what should we be saying inside of the household to our Gen Alpha kids to help prepare them for the future?

他们到底需要学些什么？

Like what do they actually need to learn?

是学一门手艺，还是学编程，或者别的什么？

Just to learn a trade or just learn to code or something else?

首先得培养他们的财商，而这需要父母以身作则。尤其是这一代孩子，凡事都追求即时满足，点一下按钮，东西就能当天送达，最晚第二天也到了。

Well, that financial literacy for a start and that's modeled by the parents and particularly for a generation being shaped with instant everything and click a button and you can buy the product and it'll be, you know, same day delivery or at worst next day delivery.

他们的欲望常常超过了自己的支付能力。

They they can have their wants greater than their capacity to pay for those wants.

所以，我觉得首先要引导他们对物质保持克制，别过度消费。要让他们学会管理开销，毕竟他们刷的每一个娱乐平台，比如TikTok，本身就是一个购物市场，到处都是广告、软性推广和社交媒体的诱导，都在催他们花钱。

So I think having a conservatism around materialism and not being, overly consumeristic is gonna be a good starting point, making sure that they can manage their expenditures, particularly because every entertainment site they go to, like TikTok, is a marketplace in itself, and there's a lot of ads or, placements or social media influence encouraging them to spend.

而且现在他们还没到能办信用卡的年纪，就已经能通过各种金融科技支付应用，连着苹果支付或者父母的信用卡进行消费了。

And also because they have access to spending platforms now even before they're old enough to have a credit card on these fintech payments app, connected to Apple Pay or a parent credit card, they're able to spend.

所以，首先要帮他们建立正确的消费观念和价值观。

So getting the right view and values around spending is the starting point.

其次，关键是要教会他们如何增加收入，我们现在正处于创业的时代。

Secondly, working out how they can grow their earnings is key, and this is the entrepreneurial era.

他们不必非得等着找一份工作才开始赚钱。

They don't have to just wait for a job.

这个时代属于副业，属于零工经济。

This is the era of the side hustle, of the, of the gig economy.

我觉得，甚至在孩子还没毕业之前，就鼓励他们思考如何赚点外快、创造收入，这非常有益，能让他们更好地应对未来——那时他们可能不再只是雇员。

So I think encouraging teenagers even before they've left education to think about some earnings opportunities, to to develop, some income, is a great thing, and that's gonna, equip them well for a future where they won't just be employees.

他们自己也可能成为雇主，开展自己的生意。

They might, they might be employers in their own right with with business activity.

同时，还要给他们传授技能，提供知识和教育，帮助他们在职业不断变化的世界里立于不败之地。

And then it is giving them skills and equipping them with, with knowledge and education that's gonna be future proofing for them in a world of changing careers.

所以，没错，这确实是个知识经济的时代。

So, yes, it's a knowledge economy.

他们掌握的技术技能固然重要，但未来最有价值的，还是那些人类独有的能力。

So that technology skill they have is gonna be important, but also the most valuable skills even in the future will be the distinctively human ones.

我们能不能帮他们培养领导力和人际沟通能力？

So can we equip them with leadership and communication of people skills?

因为这些才是关键，不光是编程技能而已。

Because that's gonna be key, not just the coding skills.

现在没多少家长这么做了。

Not not too many parents.

二十年前不一样，那时候每个家长都恨不得让孩子去参加编程营，确保他们懂机器人。

It's it was different twenty years ago when every parent was getting their kid on the coding camps and, and wanting to make sure they understood robotics.

但现在我们明白了，技术本身已经能帮我们完成很多事，孩子依然需要懂技术，但更需要的是人际能力，得把这部分补上。

But nowadays, we've recognized that technology is doing a of that for us, but they'll still need that tech acuity and understanding, but they'll really need the people skills and equipping them with that.

比如解决冲突、弥合分歧、理解不同世代、跨越文化建立连接、有效沟通，同时拥有正确的价值观，才能培养同理心和真实的情感联结，更重要的是，学会领导和引导他人。

The ability to resolve conflict or bridge gaps, understand the different generations, connect across cultures, communicate effectively, and and have a right value space to then have empathy and connection, but the ability to lead and direct.

这些技能对未来的年轻人至关重要。

They're gonna be key skills for the future.

教他们在数字原生的世界里保持人性。

Teach them how to be more human in a digitally native world.

对吧？

Right?

比如教他们如何守住自己的人性，没错。

Like teach them how to retain their humanity Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

明白了。

Okay.

这想法不错。

That's cool.

这么说吧，我现在想想外面的世界——地缘政治、人工智能带来的冲击、移民需求与社会融合之间的平衡，把这些全搅在一起，再想想从一个家长到另一个家长的担忧：下一代的孩子们，真能挺过去吗，马克？

So so like, you know, when I think about the world out there right now, geopolitics, think about AI and the destruction that that's causing, the challenges of balancing the needs of immigration with social cohesion, throwing that all into a big pot, thinking about the next generation from one parent to another, are the kids going to be all right, Mark?

我觉得他们会的。

I think they are.

我们做研究时经常发现，现在的父母，尤其是祖父母，对年轻人所处的这个世界感到绝望，他们常常对我们说：‘真庆幸我不是现在这么年轻。’

You know, often we found this in the research that the parents, and particularly the grandparents today, are in despair about the world of the young that the young people are being shaped in, and they often say to us, oh, I'm glad I'm not young today.

但年轻人自己并不为此担忧。

But the young people aren't worried about it.

他们并不贬低自己所处的时代。

They're not they're not disparaging of their times.

这是他们唯一了解的时代。

These are the only times they've ever known.

他们并不因为自己是当今的年轻人而感到沮丧。

They're not feeling bad about being a young person today.

他们对未来充满期待，这也很正常。

They're excited about the future, and as they should be.

我们在和他们谈论这个时代时，需要调整叙述方式，别总拿我们记忆中那些所谓的‘黄金年代’来对比，而是多给他们一些鼓励和支持。

And I think we need to get the narrative right as we talk to them about their times, not compare everything to perhaps the golden times that we might perceive our times were, and give them a bit of encouragement and support.

我看到这一代人有着全球性的同理心，他们关注着世界各地正在发生的事，关心环境和未来，彼此扶持，拥有很高的情商，真心想把握自己的未来，主动去争取属于自己的空间。

I see a generation with global empathy as they see what's happening around the world, with a care for the environment and the future, with a focus on each other, with with a real, EQ, you know, an emotional, intelligence, and and a real desire to make something of their of their future and have a bit of agency to step forward.

我们只需要确保给他们这样的机会，鼓励他们朝这个方向走，而不是一味地用过度的、适得其反的同情心包围他们——总想着在每个环节都提供支持、保障和关怀，而应该培养他们的韧性，锤炼他们的毅力，因为未来注定充满挑战和不确定性。

We just need to make sure that we give them those opportunities and encourage them in that direction, not not, I guess, surround them with misplaced, ruinous empathy where we're trying to create, you know, support and well-being and concern at every turn, but rather give them resilience and forge a bit of that fortitude, because tough times is and uncertain times is what the future holds.

如果我们能帮他们挺直脊梁，培养应对这个动荡时代的品格，再在途中给予一些支持，那就足够了。

And if we can give them that strength in their spine, that character to respond to the uncertainties of the era and a bit of support along the way.

我相信，未来会掌握在可靠的手中。

I think the future will be in great hands.

他们会以非常成功的方式引领二十一世纪，用全新的思维应对这些新挑战，未来确实会掌握在非常可靠的人手中。

They'll lead the twenty first century in in a very, successful way because they'll bring new thinking to these new challenges, and I think the future will be in very good hands indeed.

我完全同意。

A 100% agree.

少一点过度的同情，多一点情商，我觉得这才是关键。

Less suicidal empathy, more emotional intelligence, I say.

这太棒了。

That's awesome.

马克，快结束时，大家去哪里能了解更多麦肯德爾发布的资料呢？

Mark, as as we finish up, where can people go to learn more of the stuff that that, McCrindle is putting out?

是的。

Yeah.

我们免费发布大量调研报告和信息图，内容都很公开。

Well, we put a lottery research and reports out, freely accessible, a lot of infographics as well.

你可以访问 mccrindle.com。

You can go to mccrindle.com.

就是 mccrindle.com。

That's mccrindle.com.

所有内容都能在那里找到。

So you'll find it all there.

网站还提供订阅服务，你可以获取我们发布的每一份报告，还有大量视频和资讯。

There's even a subscription there where you can get access to every one of the reports you've ever written, a lot of video content and information as well.

欢迎随时去查看，希望这些数据能为你的未来提供参考。

So, have at it, and, and hopefully that data will inform your future.