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欢迎收听今天的播客。
Welcome to the podcast today.
我妈妈做的苹果酥特别棒，用燕麦片、红糖，再铺上厚厚一层黄油，盖在炖好的苹果上。
My mom makes this amazing apple crumble, rolled oats, brown sugar, and way too much butter sprinkled over top of stewed apple.
苹果我肯定吃，但要是给我端来一盘光是上面那层酥皮，我都能乐开花。
I'll eat the apple, definitely, but put a plate of just that topping in front of me, and I'll be happy as.
我就是特别爱吃顶层的那部分，就像蛋糕上的糖霜一样。
I'm a sucker for the thing on top, the icing on the cake.
在市场里，你也能看到类似的现象，有些人对收益的渴望，就跟爱吃甜食的人一样。
In markets, you can kind of see a similar dynamic happening with some types of people who perhaps have a sweet tooth in the same sort of way.
有一部分资金会长期留在那里不动。
Some money or capital sits there for the long term.
这就像是派的馅料。
That's the pie filling.
其他那些资金层，更像是上面的那层糖霜。
Other layers of money, well, that's kind of like the topping.
它既不会凭空出现，也不会彻底消失。
It's neither created nor destroyed.
只是从一个甜点上刮下来，再舀到下一个甜点上。
It just gets scraped off one dessert and dolloped onto the next.
像我这种爱吃甜食的人，就会追着它从一个东西跑到另一个东西。
And people like me with a sweet tooth will follow it from one thing to another.
最近一段时间，这笔钱全集中在人工智能股票上，比如英伟达、Palantir、半导体，反正你能想到的都包括了。
Now for the last little while, that topping's been squarely sitting on AI stocks, NVIDIA, Palantir, semiconductors, you name it.
今年年初，能源板块突然发力，油价涨破每桶100美元，国防和能源股一下子火了起来。
At the start of this year, when energy took a turn, oil pushed higher past a $100 a barrel, and we saw defense and energy stocks start to go crazy.
那时候AI反而有点停滞，比特币虽然去年十月冲到历史高点，但之后一路跌回了低谷。
AI went a little bit flat, and Bitcoin, well, that was at a record high in October, but that came falling all the way down from its peak.
就在上周，这笔钱又转到了有史以来最大的一块蛋糕上——SpaceX的IPO。
And then just last week, the topping landed on the biggest cake ever baked, the SpaceX IPO.
它在纳斯达克上市，成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股。
It listed on the Nasdaq and is the largest initial public offering in history.
估值高达1.75万亿美元，只用一天交易就又涨了不少。
$1,750,000,000,000 valuation, now worth a lot more just with one day of trading.
紧随其后的是Anthropic和OpenAI，它们今年晚些时候也会申请上市。
Now right behind that in the queue is Anthropic and OpenAI, both filing for their own listings later on this year.
有人管这叫投资，但实际上，你只是在追着那层甜 topping，从一个甜点跑到另一个甜点。
Some call it investing, but really, you're just chasing the topping that's moving from one dessert to another one.
我不是那种能告诉你糖霜或者苹果派碎屑下一步会落在哪儿的人。
I'm not the guy who can tell you where the icing or that apple crumble topping is going.
我试过这么做。
I've tried to do that.
我失败过好多次，但我见过别人做得特别好。
I failed at it more than once, but I've seen other people do it actually quite well.
有些人能像顶尖球员看懂球场那样，看懂资金轮动，预判下一波动向，对他们来说，这一切仿佛浑然一体。
Some people can read capital rotation the way a good player will read the field, the game, and what's coming next, kinda merge into one for them.
上周末我去看了勇士队的比赛，勇士对掘金。
And I was at the Warriors game on the weekend, the Warriors versus Coins.
不是。
No.
我不是体育迷，但弄到了几张票。
I'm not a sports fan, but I got some tickets.
我就去了一趟。
I went along.
玩得特别开心。
I had a great time.
看比赛真过瘾。
I loved watching the game.
你能看出来，有些人真的懂球，知道球会往哪儿走，规则也门儿清。
You could tell that some people really knew where the ball was going, they understood the rules.
他们跟这项运动仿佛融为一体。
They were one with the sport.
我天生不是这种人，现在我也完全接受这一点。
I'm not built that way, and these days, I'm totally fine with that.
随着我不断投资，我也开始明白同样的道理。
And as I invest, I'm starting to learn the same thing.
如果我只盯着表面的亮点，而忽略了真正重要的部分，迟早会把自己坑了。
If I chase where the topping is going more so than the filling, I'm gonna trip myself up.
把甜点的比喻和体育的比喻混在一起？干嘛不呢？
But mixing a dessert metaphor with a sports metaphor, well, why not?
咱们就接着这个说法继续说下去。
Let's keep going with that one.
我旁边坐了个戴眼镜的男士，要不是我那天也戴了眼镜，根本看不清比赛的任何细节。
I was sitting next to a guy who also had his glasses on, and if I didn't bring my glasses with me, I wouldn't have been able to see any of the detail.
我相信，每个人在理解市场时，天生就带着不同的视角。
Each of us, I believe, are born with different set of eyes when it comes to understanding markets.
有的人看得细，有的人看得远。
Some of us can see closely, some of us can see a lot further away.
我觉得我擅长的是关注十年、十五年、甚至二十年后会发生的事，而不是眼下正在火的东西。
And what I think I'm good at is paying attention to the things that are happening ten, fifteen, twenty years from now, rather than the stuff that's actually working right now.
今天我们要聊的，是这块饼里头大多数人早就当成冰箱里冷掉的甜点、只等明天当早餐扔掉的部分。
And today, we're gonna be looking at part of the pie, I think, that most people have already written off as cold dessert sitting in the fridge ready for breakfast tomorrow morning.
也就是加密货币或者数字资产。
That is crypto or digital assets.
如果你最近光盯着价格来看这个领域，确实会感觉加密寒冬已经实实在在地来了。
And if you've been measuring the sector by price lately, it can feel a lot like crypto winter is definitely out there in full force.
但我上个周末去参加了一个会议，可以肯定地告诉你，价格只是观察事物的其中一个角度。
But I went along to a conference not this weekend, but the weekend prior, and I can tell you for sure price is only just one lens to look at things.
当大家都在追逐人工智能股票、能源股，还有史上最大的IPO时，有一群人正默默在搭建、在学习数字资产到底是怎么运作的。
While people have been chasing AI stocks and then energy and then the greatest IPO in history, there's a whole group of people quietly building and quietly learning how digital assets actually work.
如果你想了解这些人看到了什么，而别人却忽略了，那这一期绝对值得听。
And if you wanna find out what they're seeing that the rest of people might be missing, then this episode will be a good one.
今天我邀请到了Swyftx的区域经理保罗·奎肯登。
I'm joined today by Paul Quickenden, is the area manager at Swyftx.
希望你会喜欢这一期。
Hope you enjoy this one.
咱们开始吧。
Let's get started.
欢迎收听《普通投资者》播客。
Welcome to the everyday investor podcast.
我是您的主持人兼理财顾问达西·昂加罗。
I'm your host and financial adviser, Darcy Ungaro.
如果你想知道普通人如何在新时代通过传统和新兴方式积累财富，那你来对地方了。
If you like learning about the old and the new ways everyday people can build new wealth for the new world, you're in the right place.
本节目由Swyftx倾情赞助。
This podcast is proudly supported by Swyftx.
在新西兰和澳大利亚拥有超过一百万用户，你有没有想过，加密货币能带你去往何方？
With over 1,000,000 customers across New Zealand and Australia, ask yourself, where can crypto take you?
以及Provincia，专注于为工业和商业地产基金提供批发级投资与管理服务。
And Provincia, specializing in wholesale access to industrial commercial property funds and management services.
温馨提示：今天讨论的一些观点和投资策略可能并不适合你的个人情况，甚至可能适得其反。
Quick disclaimer, some ideas and investment strategies discussed today may not suit your situation and could even backfire.
在采取任何行动之前，建议先获得个性化的财务建议。
Personalized financial advice is always suggested before taking action.
最后，如果你想了解我如何帮你规划新西兰储蓄计划投资或提供财务指导，可以免费预约一个15分钟的初步咨询。
Lastly, to learn how I can help you with KiwiSaver investment advice or financial coaching, grab a free fifteen minute discovery call.
链接在简介里。
The link is in the description.
我们开始吧。
Let's get started.
从传统投资理念来看，如果你认同某个资产类别，也相信其中某种具体的投资方式或策略，那价格其实只是告诉你此刻入场的成本而已。
It's quite cool to kinda consider this in the traditional investment sort of philosophies that if you believe in an asset class and within that asset class, you believe in some particular investment or strategy within that, then the price is really just an indicator of really what what it's gonna cost you to get in at that moment.
对。
Yep.
价格下跌时，我们常常会想，哎，这步走错了。
And just because prices are down, I think quite often, and this is true with any investment, you kinda just go, well, that was a mistake.
不如放下过去，往前看，争取做得更好。
You know, let's just move on and do better going forward.
但我认为，只要你做了充分研究，明白它在长期来看会持续存在，而且它存在的时间越长，就越有可能继续存在——这就是林德效应。
But I think as long as you've done the research and you know long term that it's here to stay, and I think increasingly the longer it exists, the longer it will continue to to exist, the Linde effect.
每隔四年左右迎来一次加密货币寒冬，其实就像一份礼物。
It it really is like a gift every four years or so when we get these crypto winters.
对吧？
Right?
因为这时候你可以趁机低价购入这些资产，
Because you can scoop up these assets and
我们本来正要进入加密货币寒冬，但我觉得一些宏观因素出现了，比如伊朗局势对全球经济并不有利。
Well, we were coming into crypto winter and then I would argue that some global macro stuff happens, you know, what's going on in Iran is not great for a global economy.
而且现在大量流动资金被吸走，投向了IPO、SpaceX、Anthropic这些项目——别忘了，资金并不是无限的。
And we've got this massive suction of capital, liquid capital because Bitcoin's highly liquid into IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic, and, you know, there's believe it or not, money isn't infinite.
所以人们不得不权衡，把钱投到哪里更合适。
And so so people are having to make choices about where they they they make their allocations.
虽然我会重点聊比特币，但当时市场整体基本是横盘震荡。
And and given, you know, I'm gonna talk about Bitcoin, but the market was largely sideways.
我能理解他们为什么觉得眼下有更吸引人的机会。
I can see why they were thinking there's more attractive bits at the moment.
所以。
And so
有些投资者注意力很短，不过确实如此。
Some investors have a short attention span, but Yeah.
我想也有一批投资者信念坚定，不管价格多高都照买不误。
I guess you also have this conviction layer of of investors who will buy no matter what the price is.
没错。
Yep.
他们长期持有，但同时市场上也有一层投机泡沫。
And they're holding long term, but then you have this speculative froth.
在上面。
On the top.
在顶部。
On top.
这很好。
That's great.
那么，你认为数字资产领域中，有多少投机泡沫已经被清理掉了，资金正在转向像SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI这样的IPO项目？
And so how how much of that speculative froth do you think has been scraped off the top of the digital asset sector and kind of positioning itself for these IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI?
如果你
If you
看看比特币ETF的表现，我觉得它们从高点已经跌了780亿美元。
look at the Bitcoin ETFs as a proxy, you know, I think they're down $78,000,000,000 from their their tops.
所以，我认为这是最容易判断的地方——那些更偏向机构的投资者现在把钱投向了哪里。
So, you know, I would argue that's probably the easiest place to guess where where, you know, those more institutional type investors are are going Yeah.
把资金转向了那里。
With their money.
不过，冬天对我们来说确实很难熬，因为市场太安静了。
And then, you know but, again, winter's a a hard time for us because it's just quiet.
大家更倾向于观望，而不是行动，所以很难判断其他动向。
People people are a little bit more waiting to see versus active, and so it's a little bit hard to know what else.
你知道吗，新西兰已经持续了大概四年了。
And, you know, New Zealand's been in, what, arguably, a period of four years now.
所以现在日子有点难，成本也高了，大家不得不仔细考虑把闲置资金投到哪里。
And so times are a bit tougher, costs are a bit higher, and so people are having to make some decisions about where they put their free cash flow as well.
所以我觉得，国内各种因素叠加在一起了。
So I think a lot of things combined domestically.
我没法给你一个具体数字，但我确实觉得，有一部分风险资本已经转向其他地方了。
So I couldn't give you a number, but I do think there is contingent of the kind of risk capital that's now allocated elsewhere.
是的。
Yeah.
你和我刚才还在聊，你什么时候能从IPO的禁售期里解脱出来。
And, you know, you and I were just chatting about how quickly you'll be able to liberate yourself out of the the IPO in terms of the unlock.
所以我猜，大家会把注意力转向别的地方。
So I I suspect that people, you know, over rotate somewhere else.
但这不是永久的。
So it's not forever.
这就是我对这个问题的看法。
That's my my view around this.
对。
Yeah.
我完全同意。
I totally agree.
就像你走进一个满是人的大房间，最外向、最爱社交的人总是最活跃的。
It's like when you when you go to a big massive room full of people, the most extroverted social people, they're the ones that are moving around the fastest.
对吧？
Right?
但只要你站得够久，他们迟早会转回来跟你聊天。
And eventually, you stay still long enough, they'll come around and talk to you again.
对吧？
Right?
如果你是内向型的人，我就是这种情况。
If you're one of the introverts, that's what I found anyway.
在很多市场里，感觉钱就像在各个主题之间来回跳转，注意力特别短，但投资者们恰恰在这些地方最兴奋。
It kinda feels like that in a lot of markets that there is this money that just moves from one theme to another to another to another, really short attention span, but that's where they're the most energized as investors.
他们就想搭上这趟顺风车。
They wanna ride that wave.
但在这一切背后，其实有一些更长期的趋势，我们知道资金的使用效率亟待提升。
But underneath all of that is are these longer secular trends where we know that money needs to improve.
现在的体系太浪费了。
It's hugely inefficient.
太多人靠交易赚得盆满钵满。
There's there's a lot of people whitting their beak off of transactions.
拿新西兰来说，金融结构收走的交易费用实在太多了，如果把这些钱直接还给普通人的钱包，大家的生活会好很多。
And here in New Zealand, particular, if there's so much being paid to financial institutions in the form of transaction fees, if that was stripped out and just injected back into everyday wallets, we would be so much better off.
这一点我们心里都清楚。
And we know that Yep.
数字资产和正在构建的新支付体系，真的能带来这些方面的改善。
Digital assets and the new currency rails that are being built in that space can really bring some of that improvement.
你是不是觉得，未来这些数字资产的主要应用场景其实是在人工智能领域？
Are are you kind of thinking going forward that the real use case for a lot of these digital assets sits with AI?
有一部分是这样的。
Some of them.
我以前就说过，不是所有的数字资产都一样。
So so I've said before that not all digital assets are the same.
它们各自适合不同的市场需求。
They've got different product market fits.
我看人工智能的发展方向，它们确实需要一种原生的数字货币来进行交易。
And when I look at what AIs are trying to do, they do want a native digital currency to transact with.
目前最合适的原生数字货币就是稳定币。
And the best native digital currency at the moment is stablecoins.
准确地说，是USDC。
In fact, it's USDC.
甚至都不是USDT。
It's not even USDT.
如果你看看Coinbase的X4XO2402X标准这类东西的交易量，其实非常清楚。
And the, you know, the volumes are really clear if you look at what's going on with, you know, Coinbase's x four x o two four zero two x standard, all that sort of stuff.
我觉得人工智能和支付技术一定会融合。
So, look, I I do think AI and payment tech is gonna converge.
我可以想象这样一种场景：我的数字钱包里已经设定了AI，它知道我最近特别想买最新款的高尔夫球杆之类的。
I can see a world where, you know, out of my digital wallet, I have instructed my AI that, you know, I'm really interested in, you know, the latest golf club or the latest whatever.
它能自动在网上帮我找最划算的，只要我设定好支付上限，比如不超过财政部给我的额度，它就能自动完成交易。
And it can scour the we have find me the bargain and and, you know, if I, you know, if I set some parameters around that payment, like, don't make it more than, you know, what I'm allowed from Minister of Finance, then I can see how it could execute that.
这确实能省下不少时间。
And, you know, I wouldn't that's time saving.
这本质上是一种效率提升。
It's an efficiency thing.
我觉得这种模式完全行得通。
And I could see that working.
我们还看到微支付正在迅速普及。
We're also seeing massive take up in micropayments.
所以我觉得，AI 既能破坏也能创造，讽刺的是，它正在推动一个创作者经济，因为微支付兴起——信用卡系统其实不太喜欢低于三毛钱的交易。
And so I think it you know, AI has the ability to destroy but also create, and it's it is fostering ironically a creator economy because micropayments so, you know, the card schemes don't like payments under 30¢.
对他们来说，这种小额交易不划算，所以干脆就不做。
It's uneconomic for them, so they kinda like don't do it.
这其实是个挺有意思的信号。
Like, there's an interesting signal.
没错。
Yeah.
但如果你看看这些智能代理系统处理的交易量，绝大多数都是低于三毛钱的，数量高达数百万笔。
Whereas if you look at the volumes that are going through these agentic standards, they are predominantly sub 30¢ transactions, millions and millions of them.
不过，总体金额还是不大，毕竟每笔都太小了。
But, yeah, aggregate volume is quite low because it's a small transaction.
我觉得这个想法挺好的：比如我读了一篇 Medium 文章，或者下载了一篇论文、一首歌，都可以顺手给个小额打赏？
And, you know, I I quite like the the concept that if I read a medium article or if I download a paper or a song or whatever, you know, I can I can foster that micropayment?
我真的很乐意这么做。
I'm really I'm really happy to do that.
我觉得艺术家和创作者理应得到回报。
I think artists and creators should be rewarded.
但直到最近，还没有一个真正合适的机制来实现这一点。
And until recently, there hasn't been a really good framework to do that.
除非是订阅，不然的话，你看，一篇文章收五美元，可我只想读一篇而已。
And unless it's a sub, you know, it's like, yeah, it's $5, but I go, wanna read one one article.
这种定价方式根本行不通。
That that price value doesn't stay cut.
但如果能按分计价，我完全愿意付。
But if I if I could price it at cents per, I'd be I'd be open to that.
所以我觉得，这种趋势确实正在发生。
So I think I think that's certainly going on.
我们还看到，比如在大会上，Mason 那个展台就是个例子。
We're also seeing, you know, and we saw one with Mason, the stand that was at at the conference.
AI 正在逐步进入传统金融领域。
We're seeing AI come into a more traditional finance.
所以我们一直都在谈这个叫智能投顾的东西。
So, you know, we've always talked about this thing called robo advice.
AI只要输入的数据对路，现在确实能提供不错的建议，全球都是这样。
You know, AIs are able to do that, you know, as long as you're ingesting the right content into them, they're able to give that kind of good advice now certainly around the world.
听说金管局正在国内密切关注这事，这很好，毕竟他们的职责就是保护我们，我们可不希望AI给出错误建议——毕竟我们知道它们会胡编乱造。
And, you know, I'm meant to believe the FMA is closely looking at this stuff domestically, which is great because, you know, their role is to safeguard us, and we don't want AIs giving bad advice, and we do know they can hallucinate.
但要是把建议和执行工具结合起来，比如分析我的消费模式、做各种操作，我觉得作为金融产品的消费者，我会变得更聪明、更明智，做出更好的决定，因为AI没有确认偏误。
But also, when you combine the advice with execution and tools to analyze my spend patterns and tools to do, you know, whatever, like, I can see myself as a consumer of financial products becoming smarter, better, wiser, and making better decisions because AIs don't have confirmation bias.
它们也没有情绪。
They don't have emotions.
我以前跟你说过很多次，要制定计划，然后坚持执行。
They don't have, you know so if I you know, I've talked a lot with you before about have a plan, stick to it.
但我自己也一样，根本做不到坚持计划。
I'm as bad as everyone else at the stick to a plan.
所以如果我能告诉AI：只要我的资产或股票达到预设价格，就直接帮我执行，那我绝对乐意。
And so if I can instruct my AI that, you know, if I had price targets for my assets or my shares or whatever, just execute, I'm really happy with that, then do it.
我觉得这对咱们所有人来说都是个特别棒的未来。
And I think that's that's that's a really cool future for us all.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
And Yeah.
它在小额交易上也发挥作用，就像你说的，实时支付之类的。
It's playing and it's playing in that smaller transactions, like you say, streaming payments and Yep.
甚至只是在不同市场之间套利。
Even just arbitraging different markets.
你可以设定好你的智能投顾，让它执行任何你想要的策略。
I guess you could wind up and set up your agentic investor to have any mandate you wanna give it Yep.
它就会自己出去执行任务。
It'll go out in there and do it.
对吧？
Right?
但即使你不是新西兰人，只要你有投资组合，就可以自己分析，看看全球目前的风险溢价是多少。
But, know, even not Kiwi's having, but if you have an investment portfolio, you can analyze yourself and you can say, scout the world, what's the risk premium at the moment?
你觉得我们现在是不是处在泡沫里？
You know, do do we do we look like we're in a bubble?
还是说并不是？
Do we not?
如果分析结果给出了某些信息，你就可以据此调整你的投资组合。
And and if it comes back with some information, you go, well, structure my portfolio accordingly.
降低风险，或者增加风险——因为我觉得我们还没到那个阶段。
Derisk me out of that or or increase my risk because I'd you know, we're not there yet.
我觉得，作为一个普通人，能更系统地管理财务，这事儿挺棒的。
So I think I think the ability for me as a layperson to get better structured financially is probably pretty cool.
从这方面来说，我们每个人都会因此受益。
We're all gonna be better for it in that regard.
我也这么认为。
I think so.
就连因为社交媒体而提升的大众金融知识，也挺有意思的。
Like and and even just with the increase in general financial knowledge because of, say, social media
对。
Mhmm.
最近看到人工智能让这种趋势加速，确实如此。
It's been quite fascinating to see how AI has supercharged that Yeah.
比如说最近。
Like, recently.
是好是坏呢？
For good and bad?
好坏都有，肯定的。
For good and bad, for sure.
我跟很多人聊天时，发现他们清楚知道自己该投什么。
A lot of people that I'll I'll be talking to will actually know exactly what they want to invest in.
显然是人工智能告诉他们的。
Obviously, AI has has told them.
是的。
Yes.
我觉得这还只是第一版。
I think that's just the first iteration.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这属于信息层，接下来才是执行层。
I think it's the that that's the information layer and then the execution layer.
现在缺的就是这一块。
That's the bit that's missing right now.
没错。
Yeah.
但这就涉及到数字资产了。
But that's where digital digital assets come into it.
当资产被代币化之后，我们以前管这叫股票，但现在有了代币化的股票、ETF、债券这些东西，再加上一种原生货币，可以用来买卖或兑换它们，那就是了
And when you get tokenized, you know, we used to call them stocks back in the old days, but when you get tokenized stocks and ETFs and bonds and all that sort of stuff and a native currency that it can you can buy and sell those or swap those with, that's
一个挺酷的未来。
a pretty cool future.
是的。
Yeah.
你讲的是实物资产的代币化。
You're you're talking about the tokenization of real world assets.
对。
Yep.
不错。
Cool.
不错。
Cool.
代币化的美元、稳定币。
Tokenized dollars, stable coins.
是的。
Yeah.
你会进入一个AI天生就适应的很酷的未来。
You end up in a pretty cool future that, an AI is natively programmed for.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
So Yeah.
这挺有意思的，对吧？
It's it's interesting, isn't it?
上周末我也聊过这个话题，这是迈克尔·萨伊尔的一个观点，我是在深入研究之后才意识到的：1859年，有人为了寻找替代灯油的燃料而钻出了第一口油井。
And, I was talking about this on the weekend as well that and this is a Michael Saylor, sort of concept that I only realized after I I studied this, but oil was discovered or the first drill for oil was in 1859 by someone who was looking to replace lamp oil.
但直到十年后，人们才明白，经过提炼的石油其实可以驱动已经发明出来的内燃机——那时候内燃机原本是用酒精当燃料的。
And it wasn't until a decade afterwards that they figured out that after some refining of the oil, you could run an internal combustion engine on it, which had already been invented, but it was running off of spirits.
有时候，解决方案会先于应用场景出现。
And so sometimes the solution comes before the application.
我觉得，在这个领域，技术会随着时间慢慢展现出它的真正价值。
And and I think in this area, technology shows us what it is over time.
我知道比特币现在给人的感觉就是这样，它已经成了底层基础，上面堆了各种金融应用，确实如此。
I I know with Bitcoin, it kinda feels like that, that Bitcoin now feels like it's the base layer, and there's all sorts of financial applications on top of that Yeah.
各种各样的产品正在被开发出来。
Different products that are being built.
不过在谈这些之前，先说说监管。
Before we get there, though, regulation.
我最近读了点关于美国《清晰法案》的内容，是这么回事。
So I was reading a little bit about the Clarity Act in The US Mhmm.
目前的情况是这样。
Right now.
进展有点断断续续。
Seems to have fits and starts.
看起来是要推进了。
Looks like it's going ahead.
但又好像不太确定。
Looks like it isn't.
整个目的就是明确规则，让我们能摆脱这种靠执法来监管的方式。
The whole idea is to provide clear lines so that we can move away from this regulation by enforcement.
对。
Mhmm.
有了清晰的规则，我们才能放心地去开发产品。
And now we can actually build with confidence knowing what these rules are.
没错。
Yep.
这项立法非常关键，但有些利益相关方可能想阻止它推进。
Really, really important bit of legislation, but there's interested parties potentially trying to stop it going ahead.
或者修改它。
Or change it.
或者修改它。
Or change it.
是的。
Yeah.
歪曲它
Pervert it.
对
Yes.
是的
Yeah.
看你站在哪一边
Depending on your side.
对
Yes.
是的
Yeah.
没错
That's right.
尤其是银行
Banks in particular.
而且，出于显而易见的原因，他们希望再掌控一下收益和利率的走向，多撑一段时间。
And and for obvious reasons, they wanna make sure that they kinda control the flow of yield and interest for a little bit longer.
在新西兰这边，感觉这事离我们挺远的，但我知道迟早会波及到这里。
Here in New Zealand, it kinda feels very far away, but I know it'll it'll eventually filter through here.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
话说上周末有两三位政界人士来参加了活动，我们真的很感谢他们的到来。
Look, there were two or three politicians that came along to the event on the weekend, and we're really grateful that they did.
你知道，我也参与了以前叫作‘区块链新西兰’的组织。
You know, I'm involved also involved with what used to be called Blockchain New Zealand.
现在它改名叫‘新西兰区块链联盟’了。
It's now the Blockchain Federation of New Zealand.
我们长期以来一直跟议员们沟通，为这个行业发声。
You know, we we have been advocating for the sector for a long time with with parliamentarians.
你知道吗，去年我们的参与度比前年高出四五倍，而前年本身已经是前前年的四倍了。
You know, in the last year, we've had four or five times the level of engagement versus the year before, which was four already four times.
这些讨论确实正在积累势头。
You know, like, there is momentum behind those conversations.
我觉得大家也意识到，新西兰还没行动，但正因为如此，我们反而有机会避开其他地方犯过的错误。
And I think recognition that New Zealand hasn't moved, but the opportunity to not make the mistakes that we've seen elsewhere is the year as well.
通过一些积极的推动，有几位关键人物发挥了作用。
And and through some strong advocating, you know, there's a couple of individuals.
其中一位是约瑟夫·穆尼，他很早就看出了其中的潜力。
One of them is Joseph Moonie who really cottoned on to the potential.
他住在中奥塔哥，那地方是个独立的行政区。
He lives he, you know, he comes from the sovereign sovereign state of of Central Otago.
对吧？
Right?
那边聚集了大量加密货币财富。
And so there's a lot of crypto wealth down there.
所以我觉得有人跟他交流之后，都意识到了这其中的潜力，诸如此类的事情。
So I think he's had people talking to him and realize the potential and all that sort of stuff.
他确实是个很聪明的人。
He's a very smart guy.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
He is.
而且他一直是我们最积极的倡导者之一，清楚地认识到，新西兰要想从这项技术中获益，关键在于制定合理、健全且符合监管逻辑的规则，而我们得赶紧行动起来。
And and, you know, he's certainly been one of our leading advocates in recognizing that the window for New Zealand to benefit from this technology is predicated on good, robust and and, you know, rules that make sense from a regulatory point of view, then, you know, we need to get going on that.
我通常这么形容：如果我是一家大型数字资产交易所，或者类似的企业，我必须在资源投入上做取舍。
Because the way I describe it is if I'm if I'm a really big digital asset exchange or whatever it is, I, you know, I have to make resource choices.
如果我对新加坡、阿联酋或者澳大利亚的监管框架有明确的把握——即使它们并不完美，但至少我知道规则是什么，那我就敢投钱。
And if I've got certainty about Singapore or or, you know, UAE or Australia in terms of their regulations, even though they're not perfect, but I know what they are, that's an investable position.
但你再看新西兰，你会问：这里的规则到底是什么？
And then you look at New Zealand, you go, what are the rules?
我们自己也觉得，哎，我们其实没什么明确的规则。
And we're like, oh, we don't really have rules.
我们倒是有个牌照制度，监管机构也很亲和，特别好沟通，愿意跟我们合作。
We've got, you know, we've got this licensing thing and, you know, we've regulators that are really approachable, and they're fantastically approachable and regulators that, you know, kinda work with us.
但问题是。
But Yeah.
我们没有清晰的规则，这样一来，就不是我想要的确定性了。
We don't have rules, and then we go, well, that's not the certainty I want.
我们押的是上千万美元的赌注，所以我当然得选别的地方。
We're on multimillion dollar bet, so I'm gonna go here.
对。
Yeah.
你明白吧？
You know?
因为我们这儿是个小经济体。
Because we're we're a small economy here.
你知道吧，我们得成为跳板，推动其他事情发展。
You you know, you we've gotta be a leap a springboard to other things.
没错。
Right.
我觉得这确实是其中一部分，而且我……
I think that's part of And I
我能理解这个问题，两边都有道理。
I can kinda see the the issue probably from both sides.
对吧？
Right?
当时在会议上，金管局有个人在场，她提的一个观点挺有启发性的。
Like, when I was there was somebody from the FMA there at the conference, and I think one of the comments she made was kind of insightful.
我怕自己说不好，一说准得说砸了。
I'm not gonna be able to I'll totally butcher it if I even try.
但感觉他们的想法是，从他们的角度看，他们愿意学习、保持开放，也在尽力而为，但同时，他们也需要清楚到底该建什么。
But it kind of felt that the idea is, well, from where they sit, they're learning, they're open, they're doing what they can, but at the same time, they they kinda need to know what wants to be built.
是的。
Yeah.
他们也需要知道事情的发展方向。
And they need to know where where are things going.
我们没法监管那些看不到的东西。
We we can't regulate something that we can't see.
对。
Yes.
再从商业角度看，比如创始人和初创公司，他们想打造产品、发挥创意和创新，却不清楚规则是什么。
And then on the business side where the, say, the founders, the startups, they're trying to build and be creative and innovative, but they don't know what the rules are.
这就影响了他们的创造力。
And so it affects that creativity.
所以你实际上面临这样一种情况：
So you kinda have this
置身其中。
Being in here.
这个障碍。
This roadblock.
对吧？
Right?
我想再强调一下，监管机构愿意与行业沟通，这种开放态度真的非常好。
And, you know, I would again, I I just wanna reiterate that the access to the regulators and their willingness to work with with industry is is really, really good in It is.
是的。
Yeah.
比起其他地区，情况要好得多。
Compared to what I see in other other jurisdictions.
可能进展慢一点，但他们至少愿意和我们对话。
Might be behind, but at least they wanna talk to us.
是的。
Yeah.
我之前用我们的一款产品参加了FMA的监管沙盒，整个过程非常顺利，结果也很理想，要没有这个支持，我们根本不可能这么快就完成这些工作。
And and and, you know, I went through the FMA sandbox with one of our products and, you know, a really, really wholesome experience, got a good outcome, and wouldn't have wouldn't have been able to do what we did nearly as quickly.
他们其实有点两头为难，毕竟执行的是政策，而政策得从蜂巢那边出来。
And, you know, they are a little bit betwixt in between because they they execute on policy, and the policy has to come out of Beehive.
对吧？
Right?
所以他们也需要像我们一样的明确指引，因为在我看来，他们只是起草规则来落实法律而已。
So they need the same kind of clarity from our politicians as as we have because they can they can they can draft rules to enforce legislation, I guess, is how I view it.
就像整个西方世界一样，政治似乎只剩下两种阵营，却没人去仔细分辨哪个更好。
And just like everywhere in the Western world, it feels like we have two brands of politics without kind of shining a light on which one's better.
在美国，最近一次选举就很明显，支持加密货币的立场确实更有利。
In The US, it was clear with the last election that having a pro crypto stance seemed to help.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
It did.
我在想，新西兰这里有些政界人士之所以抵触，是不是因为一旦他们表现出对数字资产的支持，就会让人觉得：‘这不像是你们阵营该做的事’。
And I wonder here in New Zealand if some of the resistance with some of the politicians is because it feels like if you're seen to promote digital assets in any way, it kinda feels like, well, that's not what your team does.
你觉得这是不是也存在党派之争的因素？
Do do you think there's some of this partisan politics going on?
我不确定是不是政治原因。
I don't know if it's politics.
我觉得很多政界人士对这个领域了解不多，所以自然会有点犹豫，不敢轻易支持自己不了解的东西。
I think I don't think a lot of our politicians have exposure to the sector, so they kind of you know, people are naturally a little bit more reluctant to go on and and and support something they don't know anything about.
我觉得更多是这方面的原因。
So I think there's more of that going on.
而且他们还没意识到这个行业到底有多大。
And I don't think there's been the realization about just quite how big the sector was.
我知道你待会儿要跟我聊CAF，但新西兰税务局最近公布了一组数据，说去年有多少用户进行过交易，交易总额达到了360亿美元，这
And I know you're gonna talk to me about CAF later on, but Inland Revenue recently came out and talked about how many users they think have hit, you know, transacted in the last year and the volume, which was $36,000,000,000, which
360亿美元。
$36,000,000,000.
三百六十亿美元。
Billion dollars.
天啊。
And Wow.
这个市场规模比我想象的要大得多，真让人惊讶。
That was a bit bigger than I thought the market was, which is really cool.
新西兰证券交易所，据我了解，他们的交易额达到了410亿美元。
The NZX, you know, my best piece of research, and identified that they did 41,000,000,000.
这是新西兰金融基础设施中受严格监管的一部分。
That's a highly regulated piece of the New Zealand financial infrastructure.
哇。
Wow.
但另一边却有这么一个缺乏同等保护的领域。
And you've got this other thing going on that doesn't have the same protections.
我觉得我们现在正站在一个临界点上，这个规模已经大到无法再忽视了。
And so I think we're getting close to the precipice now that it's just too big to ignore and let Yeah.
不能再放任不管了。
Let let it be as it is.
我觉得确实需要一些这样的规则。
I think it does need some of those rules.
也许这些规则会通过全球性的倡议慢慢渗透到新西兰。
And may maybe some of those rules are gonna come just from global initiatives that eventually Sure.
逐渐落地到新西兰。
Seep into New Zealand.
是的。
Yeah.
CARF 就是一个例子。
CARF is one of them.
也就是加密资产报告框架。
So the the crypto asset reporting framework Yes.
现在已经全面实施了吗？
That is now in full effect?
对。
Yes.
去年四月，这项规定正式生效了。
One April, it came into effect.
今年我们聚在一起，然后到2027年某个时候——抱歉，我记不清具体日期了。
This year, we get together and then and then sometime in 2027 forget forgive me.
我记不太清具体时间了，但那时候第一批数据就要提交给税务局了。
I forget the date, but that's when we're the first batch of information gets handed over to Inland Revenue.
早在Swyftx和其他加密企业出现之前，税务局就一直明确表示他们有权获取数据，也经常来找我们要信息。
So easy crypto pre precursor to Swyftx and all the other businesses have always been clear that inland revenue has has the right and has been coming to us saying, you know, we want data.
CARF的作用，就是在全球范围内统一这些数据的呈现方式。
What CAF does is globally standardize how that data is presented.
这样一来，世界各地的税务部门就能互相核对信息了。
That enables tax authorities around the world to compare notes.
对。
Mhmm.
核对信息的意思是，我们知道资金在全球是怎么流动的，如果有人想钻空子，他们也能发现。
Compare notes as in we know where the money has been flowing around and if someone's trying to sort of script the system, they can
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就是这样。
That's see it.
没错，完全对。
That's exactly yeah.
他们实际上是在堵住税收漏洞，这听起来好像跟这个行业最初的发展理念背道而驰，但事实就是如此。
They're they're reducing tax the tax loopholes effectively is what's going on, which I know flies in the face of kind of the genesis of of the sector, but that's what's going on.
不幸的是，这个行业走向成熟的过程中难免会有一些副作用，这正是其中之一。
Unfortunately, you can't have this maturation of the sector without some of the downsides, and that's definitely one of the downsides of it.
我们比澳大利亚稍微领先一点。
You know, we're a little bit ahead of Australia.
南非比我们更早一步。
South Africa is ahead of us.
并不是所有交易平台都被覆盖了，但越来越多的平台正在加入。
Not not every exchange is captured, but, you know, a growing Yeah.
这一批平台正在逐步扩大。
Cohort of them are.
而且通过区块链监控技术，我们其实都能看到这些情况。
And it's, you know, through the the blockchain monitoring technologies, you can we can see all that stuff anyway.
对。
Yeah.
可以。
Can.
好的。
Alright.
所以现在讨论的重点更偏向比特币了。
So it's hilting the conversation more towards Bitcoin.
我当时也和另一位嘉宾一起就这个话题做了分享，还做了一些研究。
I was there with one other presenting on this topic as well and doing a bit of research.
有一家加密货币公司每年都发布一份调查报告，结果显示，超过七成的澳大利亚数字资产持有者已经把比特币视为货币、价值储藏手段或投资资产。
One of the crypto companies out there that was doing some research every year puts out a survey, and 70 plus percent of Australian investors who hold digital assets now see Bitcoin as money, store of value, or an investment asset.
所以对我来说，这似乎正在形成一种分化：一方面，数字资产在做各种精彩、创新的事情。
So that to me feels like there's a bit of a differentiation going on where we have digital assets that are doing all sorts of wonderful, innovative, cool things.
对。
Mhmm.
而比特币呢，感觉它正变得越来越纯粹，越来越多纯粹派的人被吸引过来。
And then we have Bitcoin, which is it feels like it's just becoming more and more pure, and purists are being attracted to it increasingly.
反正我是这么觉得。
It it feels like that anyway.
我所说的纯粹派，指的是那些在数字世界里寻找另一种健全货币的人。
And and by purists, I mean, those that are looking for another form of sound money in the digital realm.
你觉得这里到底发生了什么？
What do you think is actually going on here?
你认为我们的普遍认知正在发生变化吗？比如，
Do you think that we're seeing general knowledge evolve where, hey.
比特币已经不再是众多代币中的一个普通选项了。
This isn't just one of many tokens to use anymore.
现在，比特币是用来长期持有和积累财富的，而加密世界里还有其他一些风险更高、更具投机性的投资。
There's there's Bitcoin for holding and building wealth long term, and then there's slightly higher risk, more speculative bets in the crypto universe.
你同意这个说法吗？
Do you would you agree with that?
当然了。
Oh, yeah.
毫无疑问。
Undoubtedly.
你用词挺有意思的。
And to really interesting use of words.
所以比特币是一种健全的货币。
So you Bitcoin is sound money.
有趣的是，我个人并不觉得它是货币。
So funnily enough, I personally don't don't think of it as money.
我觉得它更像一种稳健的投资，带有对冲、主权、创新这些特质。
I do think it as sound investment, like, investment, you know, with those elements of hedge, those elements of sovereignty, those elements of, you know, ingenuity and all those sorts of things.
但对我来说，它不是钱。
But for me, it's not a money.
在我的想法里，我很清楚有些支付型代币，用监管术语来说，它们承担着稳定币那样的功能，我觉得它们更接近传统货币一些。
Like, I I I in my head, I'm I'm very clear that there are payment tokens, you know, using some regulatory language that fulfill that role in stable coins or, you know, I think I think of them much more money like than than
所以你是把支付技术和财富技术区分开来看？
So you're kind of thinking payment technology and wealth technology?
差不多是这样。
Pretty much.
对。
Yeah.
我就是这么看待的。
That's that's how I view it.
就连在财富技术这个范畴里，比特币在新西兰目前的处境也很模糊，根本不清楚怎么才能让它产生收益。
And and and even in that wealth technology, there's Bitcoin and unfortunately, New Zealand, way it's being treated at the moment, kind of ambiguous around how I could derive yield of that.
结果它只能被搁置起来，纯粹持有不动，但税务部门其实已经明确过，其他一些资产是可以产生收益的。
So it gets parked and it's a park and hold, whereas there are some binding rulings from in the revenue that other things can develop yield.
所以对我来说，整个生态里更像债券部分的，其实就是质押收益。
So for me, you know, there's there's more like, you know, the bond part of the ecosystem, which is the staking Yeah.
生态系统的一部分，不管你是选Solana、以太坊，还是别的什么。
Part of the ecosystem, whether, you know, pick your pick your poison, whether it's Solana or Ethereum or whatever it is.
对吧？
Right?
就是这类东西。
You know, there's there's that sort of stuff.
它们对投资者的资产组合各有不同作用，功能和特点也各不相同。
They all do different things in in for a investor in their portfolio, but also, you know, in terms of their offerings and all that sort of stuff.
所以我的看法是，如果你打算进场，一定要搞清楚自己买的是什么数字资产，它的主要用途是什么，怎么运作，诸如此类。
So the way I think about it is that if you are coming in, you know, just be very clear around what this thing is that you're buying, this digital asset that you're buying, and what is its primary function, how does it work, and all that sort of stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
因为它们根本不是一类东西。
Because they you know, it's not a homogenous group.
实际上，它们的差异大得惊人。
In fact, it's wildly unhomogenous as well as we think about it.
在传统金融里，我们也越来越看到这种情况，比如成长型股票和收益型产品。
In traditional finance, we're seeing this more and more as well that you had your your growth stocks and your income products.
而在这些类别里，实现收益的方式也有多种不同路径。
And within that, you've got different branches of how you can derive income Yep.
再加上像比特币、以太坊这些数字资产ETF的加入，让增长路径也更加丰富了。
And achieve growth with the inclusion of digital asset ETFs like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the rest of them.
感觉这确实形成了一类新产品，再加上那些以比特币为基础的策略型公司和收益产品。
It feels like, yep, that's a new line of products, and then you have strategy or other Bitcoin treasury companies and then yield products that they're building with Bitcoin at the base layer.
感觉我们正进入一个选择更多元的新时代。
It just feels like we're entering into a new time where there's more choice.
对于那些想要更先进、更现代投资组合的投资者来说，
And then for for investors who want, like, a more sophisticated updated portfolio Yep.
现在能做的事情真的多得多了。
You can actually do quite a lot now.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
而且这不仅仅局限于我们这一行。
And it doesn't just stop in our space.
你知道的，大型金融机构正在采用区块链和加密数字资产生态系统中的某些部分，比如支付通道。Stripe是我知道的最大的一家，但Visa、Mastercard、Coinbase、PayPal，还有全球支付生态中的其他主要玩家，都在以各种方式参与使用数字资产，尤其是稳定币。
So, you know, large financial institutions are adopting certain parts of the blockchain and crypto digital asset ecosystem, like, whether it's payment rails, Stripe is the biggest one I know of, but, you know, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, PayPal, you know, if you the who's who or payment ecosystem globally are all participating in in in using digital assets, particularly stable coins in some way, shape or form.
还有纳斯达克、纽约证券交易所，以及DTCC（美国存托信托和清算公司）。
You've got, you know, NASDAQ, New York Stock Stock Exchange, the DTCC.
它们都在进行代币化。
They're all tokenizing.
它们都在为代币化世界做准备，因为事实证明，人们喜欢在自己想要的时候交易，而不是非得等市场开放的时候。
They're all getting prepared for a tokenized world because it turns out people like trading when they want, not when they're open, you know, when those markets are open.
有一个去中心化金融交易平台叫 Hyperliquid，我之前在会议上提到过。
There's a DeFi trading venue, Hyperliquid, which, know, I talked about at the conference.
它提供原油的永续合约。
It has an oil perpetual future.
到了周末，油市休市的时候，它却做到了全球交易量的百分之三十，因为伊朗那边 bombs 在炸，价格在动，人们就想赶紧搭上这班车，而不是非得等市场开盘才行。
And on the weekends when, you know, the oil markets are shut, it was doing 30% of global volume because bombs are dropping in Iran and price was moving, and people wanted exposure to that, not not when the market opened, but then.
所以你看，这其实指向了一个未来——交易和结算都会变成 24 小时全天候的。
So, you know, it does point to a future where where, you know, we're gonna get to twenty four seven trade and settlement, you know.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道你知不知道，当你通过某个平台下单交易，比如 Sharesies，就是那个新西兰的平台。
I I don't know if you know this, but when you execute a trade through pick a platform, Sharesies, you know, you you you Kiwi side.
对。
Yeah.
他们先收你的钱，得等两天钱才到账，然后才执行交易，交易执行完还得再等一两天才能真正完成。
And they send the money, and it takes two days for the money to arrive, and then they execute the trade, and it takes another day or two days for that to actually happen.
如果你在周末操作，那可能要等上五天、六天，才能搞定。
So you've and if you do that over a weekend, you could be five days, six days before, you know Throw a
要是再碰上公共假日，那就更久了。
public holiday in the mix and
这还只是更夸张的部分，没错。
it's even more Oh, yeah.
对我来说，这简直太古老了。
It's for me, that's arcane.
真难以想象，我们居然还在用这种方式。
Like, it's just mind boggling that we still persist with that.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，这种更直接连接金融体系的方式，迟早会成为主流。
So so, you know, this this more direct interface into the financial ecosystem will will certainly come come to bear.
另外一点是，我一直认为数字资产是一种去中心化的工具，因为比特币可能是全球首个让普通投资者先于机构接触到的主要资产类别。
And then the other thing is I do see and have always seen digital assets as a democratizing tool because Bitcoin was probably the first major asset class in the planet that retail users had before institutions.
对。
Yeah.
我希望这种情况能继续下去。
And well, may that continue in my opinion.
但现在有富兰克林邓普顿这些机构在把货币市场基金代币化，那些基金虽然不是国债，但也差不太多，目前收益率还挺高，差不多5%，具体看市场情况。
But you've got Templeton Franklin Templeton and a few other organizations who are tokenizing money market funds, which are, you know, not quite government bonds, but bloody close to it and throw off really good yields at the moment, 5%, depending on what market you're in.
我以前根本没法参与，因为门槛是一百万美元起步。
And I've never been able to participate in the market because I don't have the million dollar entry fee.
但现在我能买这些代币化的基金了，为什么不呢？
But now I can buy tokenized ones, I'm like, why not?
对。
Yeah.
这样我就能重新配置投资组合，直接接触到那些没有中间商的产品。
So I can reconstruct the portfolio with access to products with a lack of middlemen.
对。
Yeah.
所以费用应该会降下来。
You know, so fee should come down.
对。
Yeah.
我能按自己的节奏操作，而不是被市场系统牵着走。
Be able to execute when when when I want, not when the market training system's here.
这里面有各种各样的效率提升。
So, you there's all sorts of efficiencies in there.
我觉得这个行业的未来非常明确，前景特别光明。
So I think I think the future for the sector is really strict, really bright.
对。
Yeah.
我们会看到传统金融持续优化，这已经在发生了，同时也会融合像DeFi热潮时期那样的创新，还有数字生态其他部分的创意，再加上AI、资金运作这些方方面面。
And we're gonna see continued evolution towards, you know, optimizing traditional finance, which is what's going on in that space, but also the creativity we saw in DeFi Summers and, you know, and and other parts of the the digital ecosystem, and we're talking about AI and, you know, money and all that sort stuff.
这些都会慢慢渗透进来。
That'll permeate through.
我特别欣赏一位战略分析师。
You know, there's a a strategist I really love.
他叫西蒙·沃德利。
His name is Simon Simon Wardley.
他基本上是说，如果你在某件事上比我高效得多，而你没有，那我就会抢走你的客户，而你会被淘汰。
He's basically says, if I become uber efficient at something and you're not, you're like, I'm gonna get steal of the customers and you're gonna go out of business.
所以，整个行业都在朝着至少做到高效的方向发展。
So there's this drag towards becoming at least efficiently.
如果我能比你每笔交易便宜五十个基点，并且把这部分优势让给客户，那你就必须跟进。
If I can if I can execute a trade at 50 basis points cheaper than you again, and I can pass it through the customers, you are compelled to keep up.
否则，你就撑不下去了。
Otherwise, you're gone.
所以随着时间推移，所有人都会朝着同一个基准靠拢。
And so, you know, everyone optimizes towards the same baseline over time.
这真是一个非常强大的市场推动力。
And so it's a really powerful market driver.
是的。
Yeah.
从长远来看，我也能看到这一点。
And I I see that long term.
对吧？
Right?
从长远来看，你能看到这种持续的创造性破坏如何逐步消除所有冗余环节。
Like, long term, you can kinda see how all that infinite process of creative destruction just disintermediates all of the deadweight Yep.
把价值更直接地交到消费者手里。
And brings that value more into the consumer's hands Yep.
这挺不错的。
Which is cool.
但在那之前，很难说清楚未来会怎么发展。
Between now and then, feels like it's hard to know which way things will go.
比如，当比特币ETF推出，接着是以太坊、瑞波、索拉纳的ETF，感觉我们正朝着某个方向走——把数字资产打包进传统金融体系里。
Like, I I I think about the, when the Bitcoin ETFs were launched, and then the Ethereum ETFs and then the Ripple ETFs, Solana ETFs, and kinda feels like we're going down a certain direction here, which is let's let's take digital assets and let's wrap traditional finance around it Mhmm.
所以。
So that
这样我们就能把它接入传统的经纪账户。
we can insert it into traditional brokerage accounts.
是的。
Yep.
这是进化，还只是一种干扰？
Is that evolution or is that kind of just a distraction?
我也不太确定。
I'm not quite sure.
我觉得两者都有。
I think it's both.
我以前公开说过，区块链和数字资产领域是由安全专家建立的。
You know, I've publicly said before that the blockchain digital asset space was built by security experts.
他们根本没怎么关注用户体验。
They didn't pay attention to user experience.
尽管钱包，尤其是硬件钱包提供的主权和安全性很棒，但对新手来说，使用体验简直一团糟。
And so as as great as sovereignty is in the wallets, particularly the hardware wallets that we've got in terms of security is, it's a UX nightmare for people new to it.
所以我确实认为，像ETF里正在发生的这种托管服务，其实是有必要的。
And so I do think custody, which is what's going on in the ETFs, you know, they're being custody underneath.
你也可以在Swyftx上托管资产。
You can custody on on Swyftx as well.
我觉得这对用户来说是自然而然的演进。
I think that is a natural evolution for people.
是的。
Yeah.
能让你获得和银行存款一样的体验。
Gives you the same sort of experience as your money your banking it.
对吧？
Right?
你往银行存钱的时候，根本不需要知道银行内部是怎么操作的。
So you you when you deposit money into your bank, you don't you don't need to know what they're doing underneath.
所以我觉得这确实是一种演进。
And so I think that it is that is evolution.
ETF就像是一个包装。
ETFs is a wrapper.
这其实就是个减阻器，让更多人能轻松参与这个资产类别。
It's just, yeah, a friction remover, I guess, for for way more people to buy it into the asset class.
我就是这么看的。
That's kinda how I think about it.
但这就假设了这些资产本来就是拿来持有的。
That but that assumes that those assets are just meant to be held.
对吧？
Right?
当然。
Sure.
不过，
But,
以以太坊和索拉纳为例，它们就不是非得长期持有的东西。
like, Ethereum and Solana, in particular, are good examples.
它们的用途本来就不只是囤着不动。
It's not necessarily meant to be held.
没错。
That's right.
确实如此。
That's right.
你这个观察太到位了，如果你投资以太坊是为了质押、赚收益，或者参与流动性质押产品之类的，说实话，目前还做不到。
And really, really good catch because if you are if you are into Ethereum because you wanna be staking it or deriving the yield or, you know, having liquid stake in products or whatever it is, you know, I think I think not certainly can't do that yet.
正如你所说，Clarity Act 这场争论的核心，其实就是这个领域里关于收益的博弈。
And as you said, you know, Clarity Act is one of the big wars is about yield that's going on in that space.
现在主要还是稳定币，但我觉得这个前提本身是成立的。
It's mainly stable coins, but I think the premise is is valid.
说白了，它们算不算金融产品？
You know, it's like, are they financial products?
到底算不算？
Are they not?
那接下来会怎样？
What happens?
就是这类事情吧。
You know, all that sort of stuff.
所以这仍然是个有待解答的大问题，不过你说得完全对。
So it's still a big question to be answered, but you you you're 100% correct.
如果我只是想投一个没有收益的产品，那ETF或许还行。
Like, if I just had one one investment without yield, ETFs might work.
但确实如此。
But Yeah.
我觉得有些ETF确实允许你以实物形式投入。
I think I I think some of those ETFs were were enabling you to tip in in kind Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
收益倒是有的，但我觉得这种情况并不常见。
The yields, but but I don't think that's particularly common.
对。
No.
我觉得这些ETF可能会随着时间推移逐渐成熟，演变成别的东西。
And I think that, like, we're probably gonna see how maybe those ETFs mature and they turn into other things over time Yeah.
这大概就是我的看法。
Would be my suspicion.
没错。
Yep.
这是一种演化。
And it's evolution.
对吧？
Right?
想想Swyftx、币安、Coinbase这些交易所，它们从数字资产生态里冒出各种新服务，慢慢就变得像银行一样，给用户提供更全面的金融功能。
Think of, say, Swyftx, Binance, Coinbase, and other exchanges where you have these initiatives that come out of the digital asset ecosystem, and they effectively become more bank like in terms of the services they provide to consumers over time.
而银行呢，就是银行。
And then you have banks who they're banks.
它们似乎一直没什么太大变化。
They kinda don't really change too much, it seems.
你觉得在这个领域里会发生什么？
What what do you think happens just there, like, in that space?
领域？
Space?
你觉得像Swyftx这样的公司，会不会随着他们推出越来越多类似贷款、保险这类传统金融服务，慢慢抢走银行的市场份额？
Do you kind of feel like organizations like Swyftx will slowly compete and take market share away from banks the more traditional offerings they bring to the market, like lending products, insurance, and things like that?
我觉得未来会有多种发展方向，这可能是其中之一。
Look, I think we're in a future of many paths and that's one of them potentially.
我觉得Sharesies的做法其实走的是另一条路，他们一开始是做数字资产的，后来却慢慢转向了传统金融产品。
And, you know, I would say what what Sharesies has done when they, you know, I think they listed four digital They they've kinda come the other way.
我认为未来很可能是融合的，这确实是其中一条明确的路径。
So I I think I think I think it's it it is a converged future, certainly one particular path.
你看看Coinbase，他们已经申请了银行牌照。
You know, if you look at Coinbase, they've filed for banking unlike a true banking license.
他们可能已经成功拿到了，至少在美国某些州应该是这样了。
They may have a crack cracking might have already got it, I think, in in America, in certain parts of states.
明白了。
Okay.
所以他们也在朝这个方向走。
So they are they're going that way as well.
还有不少企业就只想做个纯粹的数字原生公司，你知道的。
Then there are other other businesses that are really just happy being digital digitally native, you know.
他们要做自己的贷款业务。
They're gonna do their lending.
他们要做自己的信用卡。
They're gonna do their cards.
他们要靠自己的平台赚收益，现在还说不准谁会胜出。
They're gonna do their their yield out of their own platforms, and it's too early to tell which one's the winner.
但确实如此。
But Yeah.
像Robinhood、Sharesies这些平台的成功，还有类似的一大批案例，都说明了这一点。
You know, the success of Robinhood, the success of Sharesies, the success of, you know, all those kind of things would lend Yeah.
把借贷作为其中一个可能的未来方向，确实说得通。
Lend to that as definitely one possible future.
我觉得，这些公司现在想回头已经很难了。
And I think it'd be hard for those guys to go backwards now.
不过，挺有意思的是，那些原本完全数字化的平台，反而越来越想变得有人情味。
Feels weird, though, as well just how, like, digitally native initiatives try to become more human over time.
而那些传统的人工或实体机构，却在拼命数字化。
And then human or analog institutions, they try to digitize.
是的。
Yep.
我就在想，最后会怎么样呢？
And I just wonder what happens.
它们会彼此超越吗？
Like, will they pass each other?
还是会在中间某个地方融合在一起？
Will they merge in the in the in the middle?
这真是个令人着迷的时代，能身处这个行业里真的很特别。
It's just it's a fascinating time to be alive and to be, like, involved in the industry.
对吧？
Right?
日本最大的银行之一SBI，早就投身这个领域了，和Ripple、XRP合作多年，至少有六年了。
Well, I mean, SBI, one of the biggest banks in in in Japan, has been participating in this sector for a really long time, has a big partnership with Ripple, XRP, and has had for some time, like, at least, gee, six years.
他们可以说是传统金融机构中最融合创新的，而且还是在日本——世界上最保守的国家之一。
They're possibly the most hybrid of those traditional finance ins, and it's Japan, which is the most conservative.
所以我觉得，这样的未来一定会到来。
So I think I think there's certainly that future is gonna come.
至于它们会不会全都卡在老路上，那得看要花多长时间了。
And now whether or not they all end up on ledges and that'll take so long.
那些大银行底层的技术架构，复杂得简直让人头疼。
Like, the technology stack underneath those big banks is, you know, gives you nightmares in terms of, you know, complexity.
所以我觉得，最先有突破的，大概就是这些大机构了。
So I think I think that's the big pockets of it initially.
如果它被证明有效又高效，自然就会推广开来。
And then if it gets proven to work and it's efficient, it'll, you know, expand.
我觉得这通常是事情发展的模式。
I think it's how it normally would work.
但阻力确实很大。
A lot of inertia, though.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Oh, yeah.
要推动改变，得花不少力气。
A lot of effort to get things moving and changing.
你说用AI就好了，可你得让2026年的技术去跟上世纪六十年代的老系统对话。
And you go, oh, just use AI, but you've got '19 you know, 02/2026 technology trying to teach talk to nineteen sixties technology.
这根本行不通。
It can't work.
是的
Yeah.
所以，要让这些庞大的机构——不只是银行，还包括其他大型企业——真正准备好接入AI，从而在编程或其他工作中享受到AI的好处，这本身就是一项巨大的工程。
So even getting those massive behemoths, and it's not just banks, but, you know, to to an AI ready place so they can get the benefits of AI for coding or whatever it is they're doing.
这是一项庞大的任务。
That's a big piece of work.
对
Mhmm.
这真是一项非常庞大的任务。
It's a really big piece of work.
某种程度上，尽管这些都是大趋势，涉及的都是行业巨头，但当我们谈论银行和企业如何应对、变化如何在微观层面发生时，我们其实还是在关注细节。
In in a way, even though these are big big trends, big industry participants that are involved, we're kind of still talking about the micro, right, when we're talking about the banks and how, businesses are responding and how things are changing at that level.
没错
Yep.
但这一切都发生在宏观环境中，整个金融体系长期以来一直以某种固定方式运行。
But that all sits within a macro environment where, systemically, the whole financial system has operated a certain way for so long.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
如果这个系统里的所有要素或参与者都开始数字化转型，但整个生态系统依然由中央银行体系主导，那么……嗯，不是参与者，而是……
And if if all the ingredients or all the players within that system start to digitally transform, but the entire ecosystem is still run by a central banking system, then Well, and not player, isn't
他们大概也不是最倾向于透明化的对象。
probably not the biggest candidates for transparency either.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得他们其实挺喜欢这种复杂性的，因为这里面有利可图，而透明化会让他们没法做某些事情，是的。
I think they quite like the complexity because there's money in there, and make a com make a transparency enables them to do stuff that they Yeah.
他们确实如此。
They do.
所以，我觉得要克服的障碍还很多。
So, yeah, I think I think there's a lot of initiative to overcome.
是的
Yeah.
好的
Okay.
对
Yep.
所以，关于货币的数字未来，
So thinking about the the new digital future of money then
对
Yep.
你之前提到，你对来参加这次会议的人的类型感到很意外。
You mentioned already that you're really surprised by the types of people that came along to this conference.
对
Yep.
他们在认真学习，做笔记。
Learning, taking notes.
你觉得新西兰在这样一个数字化未来中前景如何？
How do you feel just where with where New Zealand is at going forward in this new digital world?
哎呀，你看。
Oh, look.
我特别关注这件事，尤其是过了这个周末之后。
Really, really on my toes about it, especially after the weekend.
我不断看到新西兰如何以小博大。
I continually see how New Zealand punches above its weight.
说实话，这真的很有意思。
We've all like, it's really interesting.
很多重要的协议和产品背后，都有新西兰人在参与，比如某些网络的核心开发者就住在这里，这太棒了。
Some of the biggest protocols, some of the biggest products, we've got people in in New Zealand, like core developers for certain networks residing here, which is just fantastic.
说到底，这些区块链实际上可能就靠大约二十个人在支撑。
Underneath the hood, the reality is that those chains are driven by maybe 20 individuals.
这就能让你感受到他们的水平有多高。
So, you know, that gives you a feel for the caliber.
但在加密货币寒冬期间，仍有成千上万人为了学习而来参加，这一点也很重要。
But also, you know, again, in the middle of a crypto winter, have thousands of people turn out first for knowledge.
对我来说，能见到我们的客户很棒，但更重要的是让他们知道，我们依然在这里。
For me, great to meet our customers, but also for them to understand that we're still here.
我们始终如一，坚定不移。
We're committed.
我们需要和各种协议方、监管机构、国会议员、金融顾问这些角色同台交流，这一点我们很清楚。
We can't we you know, we're we're on to share the stage with, you know, protocols, with regulators, with MPs, with financial advisers, all of that sort of stuff.
这传递了一个信号，不是为了装样子，而是说明我们正在成熟，这真的很好。
Just this, you know, the signal, and it's not meant to be a virtue signal, but the signal is that we're growing up, and it's really It's good.
情况正变得越来越好。
It's it's getting better and better.
我从事这一行很久了，说实话，我都不确定我们刚起步时能不能做到这些。
And I'm been doing this a long time, and, you know, I don't know if we could have done that when I started.
那时候根本不可能，但这次的会议确实完全不一样了。
Like, it just wouldn't have made sense, but, you know, it was a very different conference this time.
这真的很棒。
So it's very cool.
听到这些真好。
Very good to hear.
是的。
Yeah.
太棒了。
Awesome.
谢谢你今天抽时间和我聊，也分享了你对这件事的看法。我觉得这次活动确实不错，我不是一个人在瞎想。
Well, thanks for catching up with me today and sharing some of your perspectives around this as well because I thought it was a good event as well, so I'm not just going crazy.
真的很棒。
It's awesome.
再说一次，我在现场看到你了。
Well, again, I I saw you there.
我看到你上台了。
I saw you on stage.
再次感谢你一直以来为这个行业所做出的倡导。
And, again, I wanted to thank you for your continued advocacy for the sector as well.
我也是。
And likewise.
谢谢你，保罗，感谢你所做的一切。
Thank you, Paul, for what you do as well.
是的。
Yeah.
非常感谢。
Appreciate that.
很好。
Cool.
非常感谢，干杯。
Thanks so Cheers.
以上就是本期《普通投资者》播客的全部内容。
That's it for the latest episode of the everyday investor podcast.
感谢收听，也再次感谢我们的节目合作伙伴Provincia，提供商业地产基金和管理服务的批发渠道，还有Swyftx。
Thanks for listening in, and thank you again to our show partners, Provincia, for wholesale access to commercial property funds and management services, and Swyftx.
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Interested in $20 worth of free Bitcoin?
请通过节目简介里的推荐链接注册，了解更多详情。
Sign up using the affiliate link in the show notes to learn more.
提醒一下，本期节目里提到的一些观点和策略，可能让你一夜暴富，也可能让你血本无归。
Quick reminder, some ideas and strategies discussed on this podcast could make you obscenely wealthy or wipe you out completely.
所以大家一定要谨慎，行动前最好先咨询专业人士的意见。
Please take care out there and reach out for some advice before taking action if you can.
最后，想持续获取最新见解的话，再次点击节目简介里的链接，免费订阅我们的双周简报。
Lastly, to stay updated with fresh insights, check out the link in the show notes again to sign up for the free fortnightly newsletter.
我们下期再见。
See you next time.
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