贝莱德的罗布·戈德斯坦谈金融领域的下一个宏观趋势

还有类似这样的方式，而不是像开源那样。

And things like that as opposed to, say, like, open source.

就是那个‘开放’的意思。

Like, the open in the yeah.

是在封闭系统内部的开放。

Oh, open within a closed ecosystem.

这一点非常关键，因为在一个封闭系统里做到开放，有些事情事后看来显而易见，但我们当时真的震惊了。

And that is a critical element because open within a closed ecosystem, one of the things and it's, like, obvious after the fact, but one of the things that we realized, like, oh my god.

这太棒了，价值巨大——比如当你调用Aladdin的API时，你的权限设置会自动生效。

This is amazing, and it's so valuable, is that when you call our APIs, for example, in Aladdin, your permissions go through.

想想看，在一个拥有成千上万用户的资产管理平台里管理权限有多复杂。

So if you think about the complexity of managing permissions in a asset manager with thousands of people Yeah.

你能看到某些投资组合。

You could see some portfolios.

你能看到某些投资组合。

You could see some portfolios.

这些是不同的投资组合。

They're different portfolios.

你可以进行交易。

You could trade.

你没有权限交易。

You're not allowed to trade.

你只能确认交易。

You could only confirm trades.

这些权限的复杂性就在于，当你调用API时，系统能自动判断你能访问哪些内容、不能访问哪些内容。

The complexity of those permissions so the fact that when you call an API, it knows what you can and can access.

对。

Yeah.

整个控制层和这一整套机制，价值巨大。

That whole control plane and layer is an incredible value proposition.

越是有人编写代码，越是有人以更技术化的方式与系统互动，这套控制机制就越显重要。

And the more you have people coding and the more you have people interacting with systems in more technical ways, the more valuable those control planes actually wind up being.

那另一面会怎么样？

What happens to the flip side?

明白了。

Okay.

你刚才提到一些核心基础设施，比如受监管的系统、专有数据等等。

You've described some core pieces of infrastructure that the regulated, there's proprietary data, etcetera.

客户把他们最敏感的信息都交给了这些平台。

Clients are putting their most sensitive info in the world.

你的看法是，这些平台的价值会越来越大。

And your view is that the value of those platforms will grow.

有没有那种不属于这类的软件？

Are there is there software that's not that?

还是说根本就不存在其他选择？

Or is that are there zeros?

当然了。

Absolutely.

没有。

No.

当然。

Absolutely.

当然。

Absolutely.

有什么？

There there's There's what?

首先，这些东西的生命周期都很长。

Well, first of all, sort of, these things have long tails.

好的。

Okay.

所以，真正把一个系统停用掉，这事儿可不简单。

So, like, actually going through the process of retiring a system Yeah.

不管是什么系统，这都得花不少功夫。

Is a lot of work, no matter what the system is.

所以这些技术的影响期都很长。

So there are long tails.

但有些技术我们大家都离不开，用得特别多。

But there are certain technologies that are really and we all use them.

有一些技术专门收集公开信息，让你轻松获取。

There are certain technologies that are about collating public information and making it easy for you to access.

我觉得可以说，现有的AI工具就是最强大的智囊，能扫描所有公开资源，按你最习惯的方式把信息呈现给你。

And I think it's fair to say that the AI tools that exist are the ultimate oracles in being able to do that, in being able to scour all public sources and give you back information in the way that you're most comfortable with.

尤其是SaaSpocalypse里那种便利性层的产品，它们没有独家数据，也不深入你的工作流程，纯粹是提升便利性的工具。

So particularly that segment of SaaSpocalypse, which is that, like, convenience layer, they don't really have proprietary data, they're not really in the workflow, They're a convenience technology.

我觉得这些便利型技术

I think those convenience technologies

它们现在处境不妙。

They're in trouble.

它们肯定得重新思考自己的价值主张了。

They're certainly going to be looking for ways of reimagining their value proposition.

我们邀请你来参加这个播客，其中一个原因就是你既是AI产品的提供方——比如Aladdin，同时也是自己公司里积极使用AI的用户。

Well, one of the reasons we wanted to have you on the podcast is because you are both a provider of AI, viz Aladdin, and also a user of AI at your own company.

我们也都听过不少高管和经理谈论AI如何提升效率，

And we've all seen various executives and managers talk about AI as a productivity enhancing tool.

但他们说的往往都比较笼统。

And they tend to talk about it in very general terms.

所以我特别想听听你个人的看法，BlackRock这边的效率提升具体体现在哪些地方？

So I would be curious to hear from your perspective exactly what a productivity enhancement at BlackRock actually looks like.

我给你讲个上周五发生的真实例子吧，

I I will give you a productivity enhancement from Friday Right?

顺便说一句，我描述的这种场景，我觉得未来 everywhere 都会是这样。

Of last week because and by the way, what I'm describing, I think, is the future everywhere.

我希望BlackRock能比别人更快地抵达那个未来，但我相信那就是未来。

I hope BlackRock gets to that future faster than others, but I believe it's the future.

我们一直在做大量工作，全方位地升级Aladdin。

So we have been doing a lot of work, enhancing Aladdin in many ways.

我们其中一个重点是，如何让私募市场的透明度更接近公开市场，从而更好地管理整个投资组合。

And one of the big themes that we have is how do we provide more transparency in the private markets to be as close as possible to the public markets in pursuit of this whole portfolio?

为此，我们已经持续开展了一项大规模的计划，时间很长了。

So we have a large program of work that's been going on for quite some time.

所以我每个周五都会花好几个小时，来看我们正在做的那些成果演示。

So I try to spend hours every Friday getting demos of things we're working on.

上个周五下午的演示，正好契合我刚才说的这个方向，展示了一个特别棒的工具。

So my Friday afternoon demo, along the theme that I just described, was a demo of a tool that was awesome.

不过让我先说说这个工具是怎么做出来的。

But let me go through how it was created.

这是我第一次看到有人从头到尾完整地做出这样的东西。

And this was the first time end to end that at least I've been shown this.

有一群人——包括投资经理、风控专家、工程师和产品经理——聚在一起，讨论了几个小时，琢磨这个功能该怎么设计。

So a group of people that included portfolio managers, risk professionals, engineers, product managers, a group of people sat in a room for multiple hours talking about how this capability should work.

整个讨论过程都被录了下来。

That discussion was recorded.

那次讨论通过录音，形成了一份功能文档。

That discussion, through the recording of it, created a functional document.

这份功能文档只做了一些轻微调整。

That functional document was lightly tweaked.

接着，这份文档被输入到我们常用的AI编程工具中。

That functional document was then put in some of the AI coding tools that we use.

通过这些AI工具，文档直接生成了一个原型。

That document through the AI coding tools led to a prototype.

刚才我们说的整个调试过程，你都亲身经历了。

There was a debugging process that you lived through that we just described.

到了周五，你知道的，我这三十多年里见过的原型太多了。

And on Friday, you know, I've seen a lot of prototypes before in my sort of thirty two years.

我能想象。

Can imagine.

所以我清楚，在看到这种原型时，该问哪些问题——它就像个空壳子。

So I I know the questions to ask where you see the prototype is, like, a thin shell.

是的

Yeah.

但只要你不断施压，外壳就会裂开。

But if you press enough, the shell cracks.

这根本不是什么原型。

Like, this wasn't like a prototype.

这可是真家伙。

This was like the real deal.

当你回头看这个流程，我们实际上把原本需要以月为单位的时间压缩了。

And when you look at that cycle, we effectively collapsed what would have taken the unit of measurement would have been months.

现在，时间单位变成了天。

Now the unit of measurement was days.

它还是会走完我们的软件开发生命周期。

Now it will still go through our software development life cycle.

它会经过测试。

It will be tested.

所有这些因素。

All of those things.

但当你把它看作一个提升效率的工具时，这就回到了每年全球代码行数增长十倍的问题上。

But when you look at that as a productivity tool, this goes back to the 10x ing the amount of lines of code in the world every year.

工程能力将迎来一场爆发式的增长。

There's just gonna be an explosion in the ability to engineer things.

我现在在想，如果这个编程工具看到这样的会议录音，它会不会根据与会者的职位和重要性来加权处理？

Now I'm wondering if the coding tool, when it sees a transcript of a meeting like that, do you think it weights the participants by, like, title and level of importance?

不会。

No.

我是认真的在问这个问题。

This is a real question.

它很可能就是这样做的。

It probably does.

要是不这么做，反而奇怪了。

It would be weird if it didn't.

对吧？

Right?

挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

我感觉它不会。

My intuition is it doesn't.

我觉得这反而能很好地反映出谁发言最多，或者谁的想法最到位。

My intuition is this would be a great exercise in those who talk most or probably most reflective.

我听说有一家公司专门做第三方咨询，帮企业实施软件系统。

I heard about a company that's doing third party consulting for helping companies implement software.

他们的一项做法是，跟客户开Zoom会议，摄像头对准他们用的白板。

And one of the things that they're doing is they get on a Zoom with the client, and they have a camera trained on the whiteboard that they're working on.

这段视频也会一起上传，因为白板本来就是软件开发的通用语言。

And that video file also is part of so in addition to the audio, because, you know, whiteboards are the lingua franca of software development.

所以系统能完整看到整个工作流程。

So that also gets uploaded to it, and so that it, like, sees that whole workflow and stuff.

这事儿真够离谱的。

It's pretty it's pretty wild stuff.

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

最近关于令牌费用的新闻很多，都说推理成本高得吓人。

Tokens, there's been a lot of headlines lately about token sticker shock about, oh, we are spending a lot on inference.

我想知道，今年黑石的令牌消耗量跟去年比有什么变化？

I'm curious if you could tell us anything about token consumption this year versus last year at BlackRock.

另外，我们还注意到一件事，跟这个密切相关——以前总被当成理论问题的算力瓶颈，现在真开始影响到像Anthropic这样的用户了。

But, also, like, one of the things that we're also seeing, and it's very it's related to this, is, like, the compute constraints that have long been talked about as theoretical are starting to actually bite people who are sort of, like, anthropic users or, like, whatever.

你能聊聊令牌消耗的情况吗？从你的角度看，算力限制是真实存在的吗？

Like, could you talk a little bit about token consumption, and is the compute constraint real from your perspective?

如果你能打个响指，多接入十万张GPU，现在会有多大帮助？

If you could snap your fingers and get a 100,000 more plugged in GPUs, would that be a big a big help right now?

我觉得你得先回过头去看看过去一段时间的情况。

Well, I think that you have to sort of go back in time a little bit.

我经历过的最重要的一课是，我记得一位早期的合伙伙伴，查理·哈洛克先生，可惜他已经去世了。他教会了我很多事，其中一点是：如果你给了优秀的建模师和工程师充分的自由，他们凭着对算力无止境的需求，迟早能把公司拖垮。

So one of the key, key, key lessons learned that I've experienced, and I remember one of the near founding partners, a gentleman, Charlie Hallock, who unfortunately passed away, what he instilled in me, among many other things, was if you have the right modelers and engineers and you leave them unconstrained, they will bankrupt the company in terms of their insatiable appetite for compute.

过去，限制你的是一间实体数据中心。

In the old days, you had a physical data center that was the constraint.

你得提前订购硬件设备。

You would have to order hardware.

有时候，大家会说：我们的数据中心快撑不住了。

At some point, people would say, We're outgrowing our data center.

那时候，我们通常会说：先等等看，一年后再决定。

You'd say, Let's wait a year and see what happens.

而今天，资源的弹性已经完全不一样了。

So in today's world, the elasticity is obviously very different.

但从根本上说，黑石内部有一群人——我相信任何顶尖的金融服务公司都一样——如果你不限制他们的算力使用，二十年前他们会拖垮公司，十年前也会，现在更会。

But as a starting point, there are a group of people within BlackRock, and I think this is true in any sort of great financial services company, that if you leave them unconstrained from a compute power perspective, twenty years ago, they would have bankrupted the company, ten years ago, and today, they they will.

所以关键问题是：你该怎么决定把资源投在哪里？

So part of it is how do you think about where to invest?

是的

Yeah.

我一时说不上来我们现在的token消耗量是去年的多少倍，但肯定是好几倍。

I don't know offhand the number of tokens we're consuming today relative to a year, but it's multiples.

高出好几倍。

It's multiples higher.

我觉得，无论是对公司还是整个行业来说，我们还处在早期阶段，真正的游戏根本还没开始。

And I think that we're still at a point, again, as a company, but also at a broad industry level, where I don't really think the game has started yet.

所以没人真能说清楚未来的token消耗会达到什么水平。

So I don't think anyone really knows what the token consumption is gonna be.

同样重要的是，也没人真正开始优化自己的token使用了。

And equally as important, I don't think anyone has really started optimizing their token consumption.

有人该搞个专门提升token效率的Aladdin系统。

You know what someone needs to do is build an Aladdin for token efficiency.

可以肯定的是，这样的系统一定会出现。其实，我们AI实验室的负责人斯蒂芬·博伊德，我在这事刚起步时就找过他，问他：我们到底漏掉了什么？

It is a certainty that not only will that exist, but one of the gentlemen who the person who actually leads our AI lab, a gentleman, Stephen Boyd, I had called him in the early days of this happening, and I'm like, What are we missing?

斯蒂芬，你帮我理清楚，我们到底漏了什么。

Like, Stephen, help me understand what are we missing.

他提了两点，他是斯坦福的工程学教授。

He said two things, and he is a professor of engineering at Stanford.

他说，你们漏了两点。

He said, You're missing two things.

第一点是，清晰的语言非常非常有力量。

One is that articulate language is very, very powerful.

我当时就说，好吧，这到底是什么意思？

And I'm like, Okay, like, what does that mean?

他说，你好好想想。

And he's like, Think about it.

我是个教授。

I'm a professor.

如果我读一篇论文，写得不够好，我就会对所有内容都持怀疑态度。

If I'm reading a paper, and it's not written that well, you check everything.

如果你读到一篇写得特别好的论文，你就会自然而然地认为它是对的。

And if you're reading a paper that's written really well, you just assume it's right.

这就是他的第一个观点。

So that was the first point.

他提到的第二个观点跟这个话题有关，他说：别忘了，现在全球各地都有不少研究生正在研究这些技术最枯燥的方面，比如如何让这些模型更高效。

The second point he had, which relates to this topic, he said, Just remember, there's a bunch of graduate students here and everywhere else that right now are working on, like, the most boring aspects of this too, including how to have these models be more efficient.

目前，大家的关注点全在追求智能上。

So right now, it's all about the quest for intelligence.

我觉得接下来，焦点会稍微转向对企业应用场景的探索。

I think we're gonna see it pivot slightly to the quest for enterprise use cases.

然后，很快就会转向如何更高效地获取和使用这些技术。

And then I think it's gonna pivot very quickly to the quest for efficiency of how you're accessing things.

我们还没到那一步。

We're not there yet.

我是卡罗琳·海德。

This is Caroline Hyde.

我是埃德·卢德洛，诚邀您收听《彭博科技》，这是一档专注科技、创新与商业未来的每日播客。

And I'm Ed Ludlow inviting you to join us for Bloomberg Tech, a daily podcast focusing exclusively on technology, innovation, and the future of business.

每个工作日，我们会为您梳理全球顶尖科技公司的最新要闻。

Every weekday, we bring you the top headlines from the world's biggest tech companies.

涵盖金融、国防、人工智能、娱乐，从初创企业到七大科技巨头。

From finance to defense, AI to entertainment, and from startups to the magnificent seven.

我们聚焦推动科技行业迈向新边疆的个人与企业，以及塑造全球科技市场的政策动态。

We highlight the latest stories of the people and companies pushing the tech sector to new frontiers and the politics that shape global tech markets.

我们每天工作日都做这些内容，并在播客中为您呈现最重要的人物对话与深度分析。

We do this all every weekday, then bring you the most important conversations and analysis in our podcast.

在 YouTube、Apple、Spotify 或您收听播客的任何平台搜索《彭博科技》即可收听。

Search for Bloomberg Tech on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

每天下午通勤回家时，别忘了收听我们，紧跟科技新闻的最新动态。

Join us every afternoon on your commute home and stay ahead of the tech news cycle.

这就是《彭博科技》播客。

That's the Bloomberg Tech Podcast.

我是来自纽约的卡罗琳·海德。

I'm Caroline Hyde in New York.

我是来自旧金山的埃德·卢德洛。

And I'm Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

现在就订阅吧，无论你在哪里听播客。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

我想快速回一下你之前提到的私募市场的问题，就是关于组合管理这个想法——通过像Aladdin这样的系统，你可以像管理公开市场资产一样管理私募资产，获得更透明的定价信息等等。

I wanna go back to something you said about private markets quickly, which is this whole portfolio management idea, this idea that via a system like Aladdin, you can manage your private assets the same way you would manage your public assets, you get more transparency around pricing and things like that.

私募市场销售时常常强调的一个点是流动性溢价，意思是由于这些资产不像公开市场资产那样容易交易，所以你能多赚一点。

So part of the sales pitch with private markets has been this idea of an illiquidity premium and the idea that you earn a little bit more because these things are not treated like public market assets.

但一旦你通过新技术把它们整合进系统，能够更像管理流动性资产那样去管理它们，这种销售话术会不会就站不住脚了？

Once you start to integrate them via new technology into your system, once you start to be able to manage them much more similarly to a more liquid asset, does some of that sales pitch start to go away?

我觉得这更像是一种努力溢价。

I think of it as an effort premium.

其中确实有流动性因素，但还有一部分是努力带来的溢价。

There's a liquidity element to it, and then there's like an effort premium.

如果你得多干活，那理应得到相应的回报。

If you have to do more work, presumably, you need to be compensated for that.

但我还觉得，这么说起来我都觉得自己老了。

But I also believe that, and I feel so old as I talk like this.

我才五十二岁，可感觉已经老得不行了。

I'm only 52, but I feel so old.

听起来可能有点不可思议，但我刚入行的时候，想了解公债信息，连彭博那时候都还不太成熟。

As crazy as it sounds to many people, when I started, the way you would get information about public bonds, because even Bloomberg back then was a bit nascent Yeah.

你得自己读招股说明书，然后手动把到期日、付息计划、赎回条款这些都打进电脑里。

You would read a prospectus, and you would type into a computer, this is the maturity, this is the syncing schedule, this is the call schedule.

现在你跟过去二十年才入行的人说这些，他们会觉得你疯了。

Now, today, you say that to people who entered the industry in the past twenty years, and they think you're nuts.

所以我觉得，技术的发展是挡不住的。

So I think there's no fighting technology.

这只是我个人的看法。

That's my own opinion.

所以我觉得，十年后如果说私募市场差不多变得透明了，那确实比以前透明多了。

So I think it is certain that if you say in ten years that the private market's more or less transparent, they're certainly more transparent.

而且你想一想，你生活中几乎所有事情都在变得越来越透明。

And I think if you think about your life, almost everything in your life is becoming more transparent.

说起来还挺有意思的。

Like, it's funny.

我尽量不把科技设备往身上贴，但很少见到三个人聚在一起，却没人戴着实时监测血压的设备。

I don't think any of us I try not to affix technology on my body, but it's very rare that three people would be together where someone doesn't have some device that's monitoring, like, their blood pressure in real time.

所以，一切都指向越来越透明的趋势。

So, like, everything is pointing towards more transparency.

我很难相信，随着私募市场投资规模和投资组合不断扩大，最终的资产所有者反而会得到更少的透明度。

I have a hard time believing that as private markets exposures and portfolios grow, the end asset owner is going to wind up with less transparency.

我觉得这不过是大势所趋。

So I think this is just the direction of travel.

我相信，随着时间推移，其中一些部分会逐渐标准化，就像当年公债市场和股票市场发生过的变化一样。

I do think over time, components of it will start to become more standardized, very similar to things that happened in the public bond markets and the public equity markets.

没错。

Right.

而且还会出现其他方面的创新。

And then there will be new innovations in other ways.

但我相信，事情会变得透明得多。

But I believe that things will become much more transparent.

这是必然的。

It's a certainty.

未来，从投资的角度来看，投资者的竞争优势到底会是什么？

In the future, and this is, I guess, more from just an investment standpoint, but, like, what is the investor's source of edge in the future?

以前，可能因为你是第一个抓住机会，把太阳微系统这些技术串联起来，就能复制那些工作站，从而获得优势。

At one point, maybe there was a source of edge because you were early to jump on and see the potential of stringing together Sun Microsystems and you could replicate whatever are these workstations.

对基金经理来说，放眼未来，什么才算真正的竞争优势？

Just looking forward for the portfolio manager, etcetera, what constitutes edge?

这是个好问题，我觉得在各个行业里，如果把竞争比作跑步机，每个人都得跑得更快。

It's a great question, and and I think across industries, if you think of them as a treadmill, everyone's gonna have to run faster.

好的。

Okay.

这一点毫无疑问。

Like, there there's no question that that's that's the case.

我觉得可以把优势分成三类。

I think the edge you could break up into three categories.

首先，优势在于帮助客户全面管理投资组合，而不仅仅是单独处理某一部分。你看资产管理行业，一个非常重要的演变趋势就是，这个行业过去是按照自己的结构来组织的，而不是根据客户实际构建投资组合的方式。

First, I think the edge is going to be helping clients with their whole portfolio as And opposed to just I think if you look at the asset management industry, a very significant, I would say, evolution aspect of the asset management industry is that the industry organized itself inconsistent with how clients build portfolios.

以前有债券团队、股票团队、指数经理、主动管理团队、量化团队、公开市场团队、私募市场团队，然后把这些零散的部分硬塞给客户去自己拼起来。

You had fixed income shops, you had equity shops, you had index managers, you had active managers, you had systematic managers, you had public markets, you had private markets, and then you forced the client to put all this stuff together.

所以行业接下来会转向更全面的服务，这本身就是一种新的优势。

So the industry is going to pivot more towards helping with the whole thing, which is a different type of edge.

没错。

Yep.

我认为，能熟练运用这些工具，本身就是一种竞争优势。

I think that the ability to use these tools is gonna be an edge in and of itself.

尽管编程会变得更容易，而且相关工具也会多很多。

So notwithstanding coding is gonna be easier, and there will be multiples more.

但即使开发技术的门槛降低了，构建技术的能力反而会变得更加重要，而不是不重要。

Like, the ability to build technology is gonna become more, not less important, even if the frictions to build technology go down.

我记得参加一个会议时，有人问我：‘你从大学招人，最想招哪种专业背景的？’

I would argue I was at a conference, and someone asked me, like, Who would you like to hire coming out of university?

我回答说：‘英语专业的。’

And I said, English majors.

结果我这话一出，成千上万的人给我发邮件，说他们孩子就是英语专业的，当时我正跟他们说话呢。

And that was a big mistake because then, like, thousands of people emailed me that their child's an English major while I speak to them.

但我之所以这么说，是因为我真心这么认为——我们现在正处在一个时代，那些能有想象力、又能清晰表达出来的人，实现想法的速度前所未有地快。

But the reason I said English majors, and I believe this, like, we're living through a time where those who could have imagination and articulate it, the ability to implement that has never been as fast.

没错。

Yeah.

以前可能要好几年才能做成的事，现在几天就能搞定。

And literally, if it used to be, like, years, now it's like days.

所以，拥有这些想法的能力，以及把这些想法实现出来的能力，跟以往任何时候都不一样了。

So the ability to have those ideas, the implementability of those ideas is gonna be different than any point.

因此，创造力和想象力变得尤为重要。

So that creativity and imagination.

最后，显然这个世界正变得越来越复杂。

And then lastly, obviously, the world is becoming very complicated.

我有。

I've

听到了。

heard.

你正面临国家安全、科技与资本三者之间的碰撞。

You basically have this collision between national security, technology and capital.

地缘政治正在走向碎片化。

You have this fragmentation of geopolitics.

全球的人口结构也在发生变化。

You have the changing demographics of the world.

你还要考虑地球上突然发现的这种外星科技带来的影响。

You have what's happening with this alien technology that's now been found on the planet Earth.

如果你想想，要有效管理投资组合，必须具备全球联动能力，而地缘政治未来会如何影响这些组合，我认为这不仅需要技术，更需要实地的网络支持。

So if you, like, think about the global connectivity that's required to really manage portfolios and how geopolitics is going to implement within portfolios going forward, I think that requires, like, on the ground networks as much as it requires technology.

这挺有意思的。

And it's interesting.

我相信你们也遇到过类似的情况。

I'm sure you guys have had a similar experience.

我读过那篇论文。

I read the paper.

我经常看彭博社的报道。

I read Bloomberg.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我看了很多东西。

I watch a lot of stuff.

但其实我上周本来该去海湾地区出差的，结果改成了线上走访。

But when you talk to and I I was actually supposed to be traveling last week in the Gulf Region, and instead, I I did a virtual tour.

当你跟那里的客户交流时，你会看到和你读到的完全不一样的情况。

When you speak to our clients there, you get a very different picture of what's going on than what you're reading.

我觉得随着未来的发展，这些实地网络会变得越来越重要。

And I think those networks are going to become more important in terms of edge as we look forward.

没有任何东西能替代亲临现场。

Nothing will replace being on the ground.

说到这个，你现在一直在为一些特定岗位持续招聘新人，对吧？

Well, actually, on that note, you're in a position where you're hiring people constantly for very specific roles.

和四年前相比，你现在面试时用的流程或问题有什么不同吗？

Are the processes or the questions that you're asking people now different in the age of AI versus what they were, like, four years ago?

这挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

但愿如此。

I hope so.

我知道我现在问的问题是什么。

I know the questions I'm asking people are.

希望这些能大规模推行。

I hope that's at scale.

也许我该跟进一下这一点。

Maybe I should follow-up on that.

我问的问题让我对贝莱德的未来充满期待，但我也清楚地意识到，如今这个世界，每一件事都必须重新思考。

But the questions I'm asking, I couldn't be more excited about the opportunities ahead for BlackRock, but I couldn't be more aware of the requirement in today's world, everything needs to be reimagined.

我们需要的，还有领导者将要面对的，说来有趣，我认为很多重新思考会自下而上地发生。

And what we need and what I think leaders are gonna be faced with, And ironically, I think a lot of the reimagination is going to come bottom up.

你该怎么重新定义你所做的事情？

But how do you reimagine what you do?

你该怎么重新思考你的成长方式？

How do you reimagine how you grow?

你该怎么重新设计在这个新世界里与客户的互动？

How do you reimagine how you interact with clients in this new world?

我觉得，说到底，这事儿还没真正开始。

And I think that, again, I don't think that started.

现在的情况更像是个难题，大家都在试错，但还没真正启动。

I think right now, it's a bit of a brain teaser, a lot of experiments, but it has not started.

到2030年，几乎每一家优秀公司走进去，都会和今天截然不同。

Almost every great company, if you walk in in the year 2030, is going to be fundamentally different than today.

在我看来，这不是一夜之间的变革，也不是五年就能完成的转变。

And the way I think of this, this is not an overnight reimagination, but it's not a five year reimagination.

它介于两者之间， somewhere in between those two.

It's somewhere in between those two.

我们一开始就说，能聊上好几个小时，还有无数其他话题没谈。

You know, we said in the beginning we could go for hours, there's a million other things that we could ask.

最后再问一个问题。

One last question on my mind.

当然。

Sure.

我之前问过好几个人这个问题，可能跟那种代币、分词的概念有点关系。

I've been I've tried I've asked this version to a few different people, it maybe kinda relates to the other kind of tokens, tokenization.

但就是这个想法——

But just this idea

会让人搞混的。

gonna get confusing.

你明显能看出来。

You can tell.

已经够让人头疼了。

Really annoying already.

因为这个想法是，嗯，能不能——

Because this idea Well, can

在你问之前，我能先说一句吗？

can I just say one thing before you ask your question?

会让人搞混的。

It's gonna get confusing.

现在已经够乱了。

It already is.

但重要的是，人工智能和数字资产，确实相关。

But importantly, AI and digital assets Yeah.

这两个话题关系非常紧密。

Are very related topics.

关系密切到极点。

Extremely related topics.

也许你可以把这一点也融入到刚才的回答里。

Well, this kind of maybe maybe you can fold that into the answer here.

不过，有意思的是，现在有很多让人兴奋的私营公司，大家都想参与进去。

But, you know, like, an interesting thing, there's a lot of very exciting private companies that people are wanna get access to.

但很多时候，这些公司已经以某种方式被交易了，可能已经有SPV，或者某些代币在周末的HyperLiquid上交易，代表了Anthropic之类的公司股份。

But in many cases, they're already, like, kinda traded in some way, and there might be, like, these SPVs that people have already or some token somewhere that trades on hyperliquid on the weekend that represents somehow shares of anthropic or whatever.

你得找点别的爱好。

You need other hobbies.

但从你的角度看，我很好奇，跟这相关的另一点是，现有上市公司的披露义务似乎会逐渐放宽，也许公司以后只需要每半年或每年报告一次。

But I'm curious from your perspective, like and another thing that relates to this is the disclosure obligations for existing public companies seem like they're gonna come down over time, and maybe companies will only have to report every six months or a year.

也许根本不用报告了。

Maybe never.

公共资产和私人资产之间，会不会永远有一条明确的界限？还是说，未来只会存在一个流动性与披露程度的连续光谱，而‘公共’和‘私人’的定义本身已经变得模糊不清？

Like, will there always be a bright line between what's a public and what's a private asset, or is it just gonna be this spectrum of liquidity and disclosure, but no clear definition of what it means anymore between public and private?

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

我认为，随着时间推移，它会越来越像一个连续谱。

I think over time, it'll be more of a spectrum.

回顾过去几十年整个行业的发展，你会发现，几乎在所有领域，界限都在变得越来越模糊，这几乎是其中一个核心趋势。

I think that when I look at the broad industry over the past multiple decades, the lines one of the defining themes, the lines, almost across everything you could imagine, have been getting more and more blurry.

我认为这种变化背后的原因是技术。

And I would argue that's been because of technology.

如果想想过去那种传统的分类方式，它们本质上只是方便性的产物。

So if you think about the old style boxes that existed, they were convenience technologies.

因为那时候没法从底层开始建模。

Because you couldn't bottom up model things.

你只能这么说：中盘股有这个特点，好吧，这就像是一个乐高积木。

You basically said, Okay, mid cap equities have this attribute, and like, that's a LEGO piece.

而不是去逐个分析每只股票的表现，再把它们放在整个投资组合的框架里思考。

As opposed to, let me model what the individual stocks are, and then I could think of it in the context of a whole portfolio.

所以我觉得，现在技术正在让这些界限变得不那么分明，越来越模糊——无论是在客户构建投资组合的方式上，还是在这些‘乐高积木’如何组合以实现目标的问题上。

So I think that what's happening is that technology is enabling those lines to be less discrete and more blurry across spectrums and across how do clients build portfolios, how do these LEGO pieces get put together to actually achieve their objectives?

我觉得你的问题里其实包含了很多层面，对我来说，最令人惊讶的一点是，两三年前，整个主流说法还是‘尽量长期保持私有’。

I think that there's a lot going on embedded in your question, including you see and to me, this is one of the most remarkable things that is happening, is that two, three, four years ago, the whole narrative was private for longer.

而且说实话，我也不确定是不是真的，但现在的上市公司数量，好像确实比刚入行时少多了。

And, certainly, I don't know how this is true that there's fewer public companies today than when I started.

我明白你的意思，斯坦。

I hear that, Stan.

我闻起来味道很好。

I smell really good.

我查过了。

I've checked it.

真的没错，我一开始也不信。

It's it's actually true, because I didn't believe it.

是的。

Yeah.

但你难免会想，这怎么可能呢？

But you wonder, like, how is that possible?

不过话说回来，反过来一看，像OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceX这些公司，它们都在拼命想上市，因为到了某个阶段，公开市场能提供的价值，是私人市场没法比的。

Now that said, the flip side of it is you see for these companies like Open AI, Anthropic, SpaceX, their race to go public, because at some point, the public markets provide a lot of value propositions that are beyond what the private markets can provide.

所以我觉得，现在正上演着两种截然不同的故事。

So I think you see this sort of tale of two cities that's happening.

但未来会形成一个连续谱系，有些终端投资者和机构想要数字钱包，也有些更倾向传统的托管账户。

But there will be a spectrum, including a spectrum of certain end investors and institutions that want to have a digital wallet and certain end investors and institutions that want to have a traditional custody account.

这并不是非黑即白的事。

And it's not a binary thing.

这背后是技术在推动个性化服务。

It's about technology enabling that personalization.

我还有一个问题，算是个意外话题。

I have one more question, sort of a wild card.

你和拉里·芬克最常争论的是什么？

But what do you and Larry Fink disagree about the most?

我问这个是因为——不，不是随便问问。

And the reason I ask is, no.

我是真的很好奇。

I'm genuinely interested.

你们俩已经一起共事很多年了。

You you've been working alongside each other for years and years and years now.

我对紧密合作的人际关系特别感兴趣。

I have a personal interest in close collaborative relationships.

我们分歧挺多的。

Disagree on a lot.

这算是

It's a

一个很合理的问题。

very legit question.

我通常觉得，我们在目标上看法其实挺一致的。

I would say often, we both see things similarly in terms of the endpoint.

拉里更关注明天，而我更觉得，眼前还有不少事得做。

Larry is more of a tomorrow person, and I'm more of a, well, there's work to do here.

这事儿得花上好几年。

This is gonna take a few years.

大概就是这样吧。

I would say that that's typically it.

明白了。

Okay.

拉里是乔，而我呢，算是罗布吧。

Larry is a Joe, and I'm a Rob, I guess.

好的。

Alright.

罗布·戈德斯坦，非常感谢你做客《Odd Lots》。

Rob Goldstein, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots.

太棒了。

That was great.

谢谢大家。

Thanks, guys.

特别有意思。

Lot of fun.

是的。

Yeah.

真的很精彩。

That was great.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

太棒了。

Awesome.

不客气。

My pleasure.

是的。

Yeah.

乔，刚才的对话真的很有趣。

Jo, that was a really fun conversation.

确实挺有意思的。

That was fun.

而且引人深思。

And a lot to think about.

我的意思是，当我们讨论这些企业的护城河时，你一开始就提到了权力动态，确实感觉它们的护城河主要就是规模、数据和能力。

I mean, I do think when we're talking about moats around some of these businesses, you brought up the power dynamics law very early on, and it does feel like a lot of the moat is basically size and data and capability that you have.

我很难想象有人会说他们在用‘氛围编程’写一堆程序，每个都看起来挺有意思、挺酷的。

And I can't imagine that you hear this you hear people saying that they're, like, vibe coding a bunch of different programs, and they all look kind of interesting and cool.

但我真的很难想象这些公司能建立起什么坚固的护城河。

But, like, it's hard for me to imagine a big moat around those businesses No.

如果真是这样。

If Yeah.

你只是往FOD代码里塞了几条指令而已。

You've just, like, plugged in a few instructions into FOD code.

而且而且。

And and

没人会把重要或敏感的内容放到这种自制的工具里。

and no one is going to be putting anything of importance or sensitivity into some homemade Right.

应用。

App.

我的意思是，这确实没错。

I mean, that's And so that's definitely true.

这才是有意思的地方。

That's what was interesting.

这个观点很有意思，认为金融领域的监管壁垒在人工智能时代反而成了优势。

This idea that actually the regulatory moat around finance actually becomes a valuable thing in the age of AI.

完全同意。

Totally.

说起来，虽然跟AI关系不大，但能提供全面的投资组合可视化解决方案，这确实挺有价值的。

You know, it's interesting too, not really AI related, but the idea of being able to provide, you know, provide a solution, all of portfolio visibility Yeah.

为什么金融行业的大公司会变得更大？其中一个原因是什么？

What is one reason why the big get bigger within finance?

原因之一是，只有规模足够大的机构，才有能力同时提供私募信贷、指数投资等各种服务。

One reason is because only a really large entity would have the capacity to be able to, like, and here's what we can offer you with private credit, and here's what we can offer you with indexing, etcetera.

所以，最终投资者手里的投资组合往往包含多种不同类别的资产。

So, okay, the end investor has this big portfolio consisting of lots of different types of asset classes.

正如他提到的，过去这个行业通常是按资产类别各自割裂的。

As he mentioned, historically, industry has sort of been verticalized by asset class.

如果想找一个能把所有拼图碎片都拼起来的机构，也就是懂投资组合构建的，那理论上，你就需要一家真正庞大的公司，能全面理解这一切。

If you want some entity that has how do all the puzzle pieces fit together, which is the assets of portfolio construction, then theoretically, you just want, like, a really big company that understands Yeah.

我一直觉得，关于竞争优势的来源这个问题，我们以前也讨论过。

All of I also thought and it was kind of also on the source of edge question is we've talked about this before.

在金融行业里，我觉得最有趣的工作之一就是做渠道调研的人。

It always seems like one of the fun jobs in finance would be the the channel check person.

就是那种去商场里看看，嗯，实际货架上卖得怎么样。

The person who goes to the mall to Oh, yeah.

这种实地考察。

The field trips.

对。

Yeah.

实地考察就是说，比如你得去数一数盖璞店里挂了多少件毛衣。

The field trips is like, okay.

盖璞货架上到底摆了多少件毛衣？

How many sweaters are on the Gap shelf?

诸如此类的事情。

Whatever.

也许这些东西反而更有价值，因为它们还没被放进商场里。

Maybe that becomes even more valuable because, like, things that have not yet been put into a mall.

对。

Yeah.

我很高兴有人听《Odd Lots》这个节目。

And, look, I love that people listen to Odd Lots.

我也喜欢人们看新闻，尤其是彭博社上的财经资讯。

I love that people read the news, particularly financial news on Bloomberg.

我从来就不觉得，大多数人看了篇文章，就会因此决定去投资。

I've never thought, by and large, that people read an article, and it's like, I'm gonna make an investment decision based on that.

希望它至少能帮他们理清思路或改进决策流程，但没人会听完一档播客，就立刻跑去买股票。

Hopefully, it helps inform their thinking or their processes in some way, but no one, like, listens to a a podcast and then, like, goes out and, like, buys the stock by and large.

因为一旦信息传到网上，价格差不多就已经反映出来了。

But it's because, like, once it's out there in, like, the digital world, it's like, it's kinda priced in already.

所以人们会更拼命地寻找那些还没被纳入模型的真实信息。

So there's gonna be that intense hunt for information that is, like, truly, like, has not been put into the model yet.

你真是个有效市场假说的纯粹派。

Such an EMH, purist.

没错，我就是。

I am.

这太惊人了。

It's amazing.

对吧？

But right?

那些能发现还没被当作训练数据用在模型里的信息的人，这些信息会变得极其宝贵，甚至更值得人们亲自出门去挖掘。

Like, the the value of people who can find information that has not turned into trade training data yet for a model, that data is gonna get, like, super valuable and maybe, like, more valuable and more reason to, like, just, like, get out on the road and stuff like that.

不是的。

No.

我基本同意这个观点。

I I largely agree with that.

我还觉得另一点特别有意思，跟你最后那个问题有关，就是公开市场和私人市场的融合。

The other thing I thought was really interesting, and it gets to your last question, was the sort of melding of public and private markets.

这其实也正是我之前说整个投资组合时想表达的意思。

And it's also what I was kind of getting at with the whole portfolio thing.

如果所有这些私人资产都被代币化，并且在投资组合中以和公开资产相同的方式被看待，

If all these private assets Yeah.

至少在投资组合中能以同样的方式被看到，

Are tokenized and treated in the same way in a portfolio or at least visible in a portfolio in the same way as a public asset

是的。

Yeah.

那这种区别就会变得越来越模糊。

Would be, it seems like that distinction starts to get really, really blurry.

完全没错。

Oh, totally.

对吧？

Right?

我刚才说的那个点我就不重复了，但我觉得我们其实已经

Not to go back to a point that I just made, but on the on this, like, I think we're actually already

我刚才说得太快了。

seeing on the I moved on too quickly.

不是的。

No.

不是的。

No.

我刚刚也突然明白了，好吧。

It just this just clicked to me too, but it's like, okay.

我们该往哪个方向走呢？也许真正的价值在于那些走出去、收集模型之外信息的人。

Where are we go like, there maybe there'll be more value in, like, people who go out on the road and get information that's not in the model.

最近我们就看到，很多人都疯狂追捧一位在霍尔木兹海峡做分析的专家。

We saw this recently with all the people going crazy for a Sattrini's analyst in the Strait Of Hormuz.

那种亲自到实地去收集尚未数字化的信息的做法，将会成为未来的核心。

And this idea that, like, field trips out to the world to collect information that has not been digitized yet is gonna be where all the action is.

感觉这件事会变得特别重要。

Like, it feels like that's gonna be a big thing.

不对。

No.

听起来有点老生常谈，但我觉得过去二十年，社会一直很看重那些擅长数字和编程的聪明人，确实如此。

It sounds trite, but I feel like the pendulum has swung from you know, for the past twenty years, if you were a smart person who could think in terms of numbers and code, you were probably very valued Yeah.

社会是这么看的。

By society.

现在，重心开始转向那些在一线、擅长建立关系和社交的人了。

And now the pendulum sort of swings to those on the ground relationship building social skills.

这个转变挺有意思的。

It's it's an interesting transition.

现在确实是个特别的时期。

It's an interesting time.

好吧。

Alright.

我们就说到这儿吧？

Shall we leave it there?

我们就到这里吧。

Let's leave it there.

这是《Odd Lots》播客的又一期节目。

This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。

I'm Tracy Allaway.

你可以关注特蕾西·阿拉韦。

You can follow me at Tracy Allaway.

我是吉尔·维森塔尔。

And I'm Jill Wiesenthal.

你可以关注《Stalwart》。

You can follow me at the Stalwart.

请关注我们的制作人：卡门·罗德里格斯（@Carmen Armen）、达希尔·贝内特（@Dashbot）、凯尔·布鲁克斯（@Kail Brooks）和凯文·洛扎诺（@Kevin Lloyd Lozano）。

Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armen, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kail Brooks at Kail Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano.

想了解更多《Odd Lots》的内容，请访问 bloomberg.com/oddlots。

And for more Odd content, go to bloomberg.com/oddlots.

我们每天都会推送简报，所有节目也都包含在内，你还可以在我们的 Discord 频道 discord.gg/oddlots 里随时讨论这些话题。

We're the daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and you can chat about all of these topics twenty four seven in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

如果你喜欢《Odd Lots》，希望我们继续做更多实地调查和深度分析，那就请在你常用的播客平台给我们一个好评吧。

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you want us to do more on the ground investigative reporting and analysis, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

另外，如果你是彭博的订阅用户，就可以免费收听我们所有的节目，没有任何广告。

And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free.

你只需要在 Apple 播客里找到彭博频道，按照页面上的说明操作就行。

All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

这里是汤姆·基恩，邀请你收听彭博市场观察播客。

This is Tom Keene inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

每天上班时间，帮你变得更聪明。

It's about making you smarter every business day.

我是保罗·斯威尼。

I'm Paul Sweeney.

我们为您全程报道美国市场的开盘情况。

We bring you complete coverage of The US market open.

涵盖股票、债券、大宗商品，甚至加密货币，所有您需要的关键信息一应俱全。

We cover stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto, all the information you need to excel.

我是亚历克西斯·克里斯托弗斯。

And I'm Alexis Christophers.

《彭博市场观察》还为您深入解读新闻背后的分析。

Bloomberg Surveillance also brings you the analysis behind the headlines.

我们通过与经济、金融、投资和国际关系领域最顶尖的专家对话来实现这一点。

We do that through conversations with the smartest names in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

每个工作日，我们都会实时播出，为您带来当天最优质的分析内容。

We do all this live each and every weekday that bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast.

在 Apple、Spotify、YouTube 或您常用的任何平台搜索《彭博市场观察》即可收听。

Search for Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or anywhere else you listen.

在东海岸，中午吃饭时就可以收听。

On the East Coast, listen at lunch.

而在西海岸，一醒来就可以收听。

And on the West Coast, listen as soon as you wake up.

这就是由汤姆·基恩、保罗·斯威尼和我，亚历克西斯·克里斯托弗里斯，共同带来的《彭博商业洞察》播客。

That's the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, and me, Alexis Christofferis.

无论你在哪个平台听播客，今天就订阅吧。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

《彭博商业洞察》，每个交易日都值得收听。

Bloomberg Surveillance, essential listening each and every business day.