CME的特里·达菲谈金融监管令人不安的现状

有些市场故事，你想了解每一个细节。

There are some market stories where you want every detail.

我和乔已经基于这个原则制作了不少播客。

Joe and I have made quite a few podcasts on that basis.

但有时候你只有十分钟，只想快速知道什么在推动市场变化。

But sometimes you've only got ten minutes and just wanna know what's moving markets fast.

那就是巴克莱简报播客。

That's the Barclays Brief Podcast.

每周，巴克莱市场和研究部门的专家都会让你快速了解正在发生的事情以及接下来要关注什么。

Every week, experts from Barclays Markets and Research get you up to speed on what's happening and what to watch next.

简洁、聚焦、简短。

Concise, focused and brief.

无论你在哪里收听播客，搜索巴克莱简报即可。

Search Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.

人工智能正进入其最具决定性的阶段，规模、安全和主权将决定谁领先，谁落后。

AI is entering its most consequential phase where scale, safety, and sovereignty will determine who leads and who lags.

欢迎参加11月2日和3日在伦敦举办的彭博科技大会，全球商业、金融和政策领域的领袖将共同探讨塑造AI未来的关键抉择。

Join Bloomberg Tech in London on November second and third as global leaders across business, finance, and policy examine the defining trade offs shaping the future of AI.

感谢我们的主要赞助商Salesforce，以及支持赞助商IDA Ireland和Schneider Electric。

Thank you to our presenting sponsor Salesforce and supporting sponsors IDA Ireland and Schneider Electric.

更多信息请访问bloomberglive.com/techlondon。

Learn more at bloomberglive.com/techlondon.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

大家好，欢迎收听Odd Thoughts播客的特别现场录制节目。

Hello, and welcome to a very special live taped episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

我是特蕾西·阿拉维。

I'm Tracy Allaway.

我是乔·瓦森塔尔。

And I'm Joe Wasenthal.

乔，我们现在在芝加哥，科罗拉多。

Joe, we are here in Chicago, Colorado.

城市。

City.

非常特别的节目。

Very special show.

这是个美丽的城市，也是世界上重要的交易中心。

It's a beautiful city and a huge trading capital in the world as well.

这就是为什么我们年复一年地回到这里做节目。

That's why we love coming back here year after year to do shows here.

没错。

That's right.

所以我非常高兴地说，我们确实有一位完美的嘉宾。

So I'm very happy to say we do, in fact, have the perfect guest.

我们将与特里·达菲进行对话。

We're gonna be speaking with Terry Duffy.

他当然是CME集团的首席执行官兼董事长。

He is, of course, the CEO and chairman of the CME Group.

没错。

That's right.

他是长期担任董事长和首席执行官。

Long time chairman and CEO.

自从他上任以来，市场发生了巨大变化，所以我们很期待了解他在职业生涯中学到的东西。

Markets have changed so much since the start of his tenure, so looking forward to learning what he's learned throughout his career.

好的。

Alright.

那就请听吧。

So take a listen.

Terry，非常感谢你再次来到Odd Lots节目。

Terry, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢你们

Thank you for

邀请我。

having me.

这个。

It.

很高兴见到你们两位。

Nice to see you both.

我刚才提到，你当然是……

You know, I mentioned you are, of course, c...

CME的首席执行官兼董事长，但你明年就要转任新职位了。

CEO and chairman of the CME, but you're about to transition to a new position next year.

你会成为董事会的执行主席，算是退休吗？

You're gonna become executive chairman of the board, Sort of a retirement?

我们该怎么理解这件事？

How should we think about this?

算是退休吧。

A retirement.

算是退休吧。

A retirement.

好的。

Okay.

我非常认同这一点。

I'm a big believer in that.

我觉得你需要确保有一个顺利平稳的交接。

I think that you need to make sure you have good, smooth transition.

我在CME待了四十六年，第一份工作周薪只有56美元。

I've been at CME for forty six years, got my first job for $56 a week.

我从2002年CME上市起就一直担任董事长，这么多年了，我一直都在做这件事，而且当了这么多年的CEO。

I've been the chairman since 2002 when I took CME public, and I've been doing this an awful long time and now being CEO for all these years.

所以我觉得有一个平稳的过渡非常重要。

So I think it's really important to have a good smooth transition.

我会继续担任执行董事长，帮助Lynn Fitzpatrick度过最初的阶段。

I'll stay on as executive chairman to help Lynn Fitzpatrick through the initial phase of it.

如果他们……

And if they...

如果需要……

If need...

如果需要的话，我会在。

But needed, I'll be there.

但如果不需要，她就会接管公司。

But if not, she'll run the firm.

好的。

Alright.

那我们就把它当作你的离职访谈吧，希望你在离开之前能跟我们分享一些精彩的经历。

Well, we're gonna frame this then as a sort of exit interview for you, and we expect you to tell us all the really good war stories before you leave.

现在还不能说。

I can't yet.

我还是CEO，所以对上市公司我得非常谨慎。

I'm still CEO, so I gotta be so careful with public company.

好的。

Alright.

那我换个说法吧。

Let me put it a different way.

你从1980年就在CME了，对吧。

So you've been at the CME since, I think, 1980.

所以

So

你已经工作五十年了。

You've been working for five decades.

你一直在CFTC监管的市场里。

You've been in markets regulated by the CFTC.

这五十年来，监管对你来说有什么变化？

For those five decades, how has regulation changed for you?

你会怎么描述这种演变？

Would you characterize the evolution?

太不可思议了。

It's amazing.

我刚才还在跟我的朋友唐·威尔逊聊，他一会儿也会过来，我们聊了聊刚加入那会儿的早期日子。

I was just talking to my friend Don Wilson, who will be out here shortly, and talking about the early days of when we both joined.

唐尼当时21岁，我22岁，但我比唐大十岁。

Donnie was 21, I was 22, but I'm ten years older than Don.

所以，当我们看监管和CFTC当时的情况时，它基本上是个全新的机构。

So anyway, when we look at the regulation and what it was, I mean, the CFTC was basically brand new.

大概是1973年、72年左右开始运作的，基本上是一个基于原则的监管机构，负责农产品。

Was 1973, 'seventy two area came into play, and it was basically principles based oversight agency for agricultural products.

然后所有这些新事物都陆续出现，从金融期货、股票指数期货，到现在的加密货币，还有其他各种层出不穷的新玩意儿。

And then all these new innovations come along the way, from financial futures, the stock equity index, and now the cryptocurrency and everything else that's going on.

所以这么多年来，变化是非常巨大的。

So it's changed dramatically throughout the years.

当然，我们也遇到了一些问题，比如2008年的金融危机，就是房地产市场杠杆问题导致的。

And then we, of course, we've had some situations with bad behavior in 2008 and the financial crisis due to the leverage issue on the housing market.

然后通过《多德-弗兰克法案》，我们又经历了一轮全面的改革。

And you go through a whole iteration of change again through Dodd Frank.

到现在，十六年过去了，我们还在摸索《多德-弗兰克法案》的某些部分。

And now we are still, even sixteen years later, still trying to figure out parts of Dodd Frank.

所以，能发展到今天这个地步，真的挺让人感慨的。

So it's pretty amazing how far it's come.

我之前想和Tracy商量一下，怎么用比较礼貌或者圆滑的方式来表达这个问题。

I was trying to workshop this question with Tracy earlier and come up with a polite or sort of politic way to put it.

但我们就生活在这样的环境里。

But, you know, we live in it.

我们现在所处的时代，一个过去监管农业期货的机构，现在名义上却在监管很多人会说是体育赌博的东西，但他们称之为交易之类的。

We're in a time where, like, an agency that used to regulate agriculture futures is now nominally, regulating what a lot of people would say is, like, sports betting, but they call it trading and so forth.

而且还有所有这些新的工具，离岸工具，人们可以通过加密货币等方式获取。

And, you know, there's all these new instruments, offshore instruments that people can access via crypto and so forth.

那个不礼貌、不政治正确的问题是，现在还有法律吗？

The impolite, impolitic question is like, are there any laws anymore?

因为感觉就是这样。

Because it feels like that.

感觉……

It feel...

真的感觉就是这样。

It really feels like that.

现在还有金融法规和法律吗？

Are there still financial regulations and laws?

担心的是，那只是研讨会上的问题。

It's worrying that was the workshop

确实如此。

for sure.

那是……

That...

现在确实感觉像是先开枪后瞄准的策略，什么都有可能发生。

It does feel a bit of a ready fire aim strategy going on right now where anything can go.

所以这非常令人不安。

And so it's it's very disconcerting.

我告诉你几个统计数据，这些数据真的让我很担心。

I'll give you a couple of statistics, which really trouble me.

自从特朗普第二届政府上任以来，已经向商品期货交易委员会提交了2500份自我认证。

Since the second Trump administration's come into place, there's been 2,500 self certifications that have been submitted into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

其中没有一个被驳回。

Not one of them has been denied.

那么，怎么可能一个都没有被驳回呢？

Now how how can it be that not one of them has been denied?

所以当你看到某人的预测市场时，我一直拿这个开玩笑，人们会说，你能不能别再提这个了？

So when you look at somebody's prediction markets, I've made fun of them and people say, will you please stop bringing this up?

我提的是……

I bring up...

他们批准了一个关于内森热狗大赛的预测合约。

They approved a contract on predictions on Nathan's hot dogs.

乔伊·切斯特纳蒂吃了多少个热狗？

How many hot dogs did Joey Chestnutty die?

我得问一下，这个合约存在有什么经济影响，它怎么就不违反核心原则三，也就是容易被操纵这一点？

I have to ask, what's the economic impact of that contract being out there, and how is it not in violation of core principle three, which is susceptible...

容易被操纵？

Readily susceptible to manipulation?

乔治·桑托斯，当特朗普总统发表国情咨文时，他会出席吗？他是纽约那位前被弹劾的议员。

George Santos, is he gonna show up at the State of the Union address when president Trump was there, the former disgraced congressman in New York?

嗯，他跟自己打赌，结果没去。

Well, he bet against himself and didn't show.

那这怎么就不算容易被操纵呢？

So how is that not a susceptibility?

特朗普总统的提词器。

I mean, the the the teleprompter for president Trump.

你知道吗？

You know?

想想所有这些容易被操纵的事情。

I mean, think about all these things that are susceptible to manipulation.

所以他们……

So they...

回答你的问题，有没有任何监管？

To answer your question is is there any regulation?

有。

Yes.

是有监管的。

There's regulation.

这非常重要。

And it's extremely important.

我们要建立良好、强大、有能力的市场，靠的是监管的平衡，而不是完全没有监管。

The way we grow good, strong, competent markets is to have a good balance of regulation, not to have no regulation.

没有监管，只是时间问题。

No regulations on borrowed time.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about it.

过去如此，将来也如此。

Always has been, always will be.

所以现在机构在做什么呢？他们基本上绕过了国会的法案，在制定相关的规则和条例，不管是在CFTC还是SEC。

So, you know, what's going on right now at the agency, they are circumventing basically acts of Congress they are making rules and regs that are associated, whether it's at the CFTC or SEC.

我要提醒市场参与者，这些机构的规则和条例，下一届政府一来，一支笔就能轻易抹掉。

Well, I remind market participants, those are rules and regs of the agency that can be easily swiped away by a wipe of a pen when the next administration comes in.

我们都记得特朗普总统上次上任时，他大张旗鼓地展示如何...

We all remember when president Trump came into office this last time, and he had a big show about how the...

他的行政命令把乔·拜登做的一切都推翻了。

His executive orders were getting rid of everything that Joe Biden did.

那么下一任总统也可以做同样的事。

Well, the next president can do the same exact thing.

所以这些都不是可持续的。

So these are not sustainable.

好的、明智的监管。

Good, smart regulation.

你得确保它能经得起任何一届政府的考验。

Well, you need to make sure it can withstand any administration.

所以我想回答你的问题，有没有监管？

So I think to answer your question, is there any regulation?

有。

Yes.

有些是不是很荒谬？

Is some of it ridiculous?

是的。

Yes.

但这并不意味着没有监管。

But it doesn't mean there's no regulation.

好的。

Okay.

我来唱个反调，但预测市场可能会回应说，平台上的内幕交易也许是好事，因为你能从中获得信息价值，而且每个人都受益于这种信息价值。

Devil's advocate question, but the prediction markets would respond that like, well, you know, insider trading on the platforms, maybe it's a good thing because you get informational value from it, and everyone benefits from having this informational value.

我不确定知道一个参赛者会吃多少热狗能带来多少信息价值，但这是典型的回应。

I'm not sure there's much informational value embedded in knowing how many hot dogs a contestant is gonna eat, but that's the typical response.

你怎么看？

What do you say to that?

嗯，我想如果我没听错你的问题，你是说内幕信息是好的。

Well, I think if I heard your question right, insider information is good.

你是这个意思吗？

Is that what you said?

我很难相信，对于普通参与者，尤其是那些没有这种信息的人来说，他们会同意你的看法。

I have a hard time believing that for the average participant, especially that doesn't have that information, they would agree with you.

而且想想，某些人拥有……

And to think that certain people have...

这正是我们通过技术一直在争取的，就是让所有人能够同时获得信息，从而能够参与其中。

This is what we've all been fighting for through technology, is they have the ability for all of us to have the information at the same time so we can participate.

我没有我亲爱的朋友唐·威尔逊那么多钱，他马上要来了，但我可能拥有他提供的信息。

I don't have as much money as my dear friend Don Wilson who's coming out here, but I might have the same information he gives.

我只是不……

I just don't...

不能以同样的方式投入，但在信息上应该是公平的。

Can't deploy it in the same way, but I should have a level playing field on the information.

所以，说内幕信息在任何事情上可能是好事，这对我来说，作为一个过去二十五年交易市场又运营市场的人，是无法接受的。

So to say that insider information could be a good thing on anything is offendable to me as a guy who's traded markets and then run markets for the last twenty five years.

我完全不觉得这样做有可信度，如果你想发展什么的话，说你知道，你知道，但我不知道。

I I just don't see any place in credibility if you're gonna grow anything by saying, you get to know, you get to know, but I don't get to know.

这和美国总统在True Social上收费十万美元以更快提供信息的情况没什么两样。

And it's not too dissimilar than the president of The United States with True Social today charging a $100,000 to give information faster.

你是美国总统。

I mean, you're the president of The United States.

你应该同时向所有人提供信息，而不是搞一个订阅来更快获取信息，让别人抢先行动。

You're supposed to give information to all of us at the same time, not not to have a feed to get your information quicker so others can act on it.

所以我对这些东西真的很反感。

So I have a real problem with some of this stuff.

我们今晚直播的嘉宾比那些要听录音的人更早获得信息，所以他们是付费的。

The guests in our live show tonight get information before the people who have to listen to our recording, so they pay for it.

但有人报名了吗？

But Did anyone sign up?

我觉得

I think

我只是发表了意见。

I gave an opinion.

就是……

It's...

现在还没到市场波动的时段。

It's not market moving hours yet currently.

但还有一点，如果让预测市场的人来谈，他们会说，你有传统业务要保护。

But another thing that they would say that if we were to have a prediction markets person, they would say, you have a legacy business to protect.

他们还会说，对，他讲的是良好持久规则的重要性，但预测市场理论上可能会冲击CME的业务。

And they say, they would say, yeah, he talks about the importance of good durable rules, but prediction markets in theory could cut into CME business.

你怎么看，比如我们……

How do you think about like, do we...

好吧，当然CME有它的业务。

Okay, sure CME has a business.

如果监管继续这样弱化，投资者群体、更广泛的金融界会失去什么？

What do we lose in the investor community, in the financial community more broadly if there continues to be this degradation of regulation?

嗯，你会失去很多东西，你是在说一般的预测市场吗？

Well, mean you lose a lot of things, are you talking about prediction markets in general?

我说的是所有这些，甚至更多，公众要付出的代价是什么？

I'm talking about like all of it and like beyond like what are the costs that the public is going to pay?

首先

First of all

如果像这些CFTC规则

If like these sort of CFTC rules

我并不反对其中一些市场。

I'm not opposing some of these markets.

反对那些违反《商品交易法》或核心原则的市场，即核心原则三，即容易或至少容易受到操纵的市场。

Opposing the ones that violate the Commodity Exchange Act or core principle, which is core principle three, which is susceptible or at least susceptible to manipulation.

你不能列出那些合约，我刚才就给了你几个例子。

You cannot list those contracts, and I just gave you a few examples of that.

这并不意味着我反对所有预测市场。

It doesn't mean that I'm against all prediction markets.

如果你看体育，我认为体育预测就是赌博。

If you look at sports, I believe sports predictions is gambling.

我觉得没有别的办法，大家都同意你的看法。

I don't think there's any way around everyone agrees with you.

嗯，他们很长时间都没有同意。

Well, they didn't for a long time.

但在我看来，如果勒布朗·詹姆斯多拿了两个或三个篮板，这对我们台上的三个人或者今晚在座的观众有什么经济影响呢？

But from my standpoint, if LeBron James gets two or three rebounds, again, what's the economic impact to the three of us on this stage or the folks sitting here in your audience tonight?

除非他们参与了那个赌局，否则一点影响都没有。

They have none unless they're on the yes or no side of that trade.

就这么简单。

That's it.

而且大多数合约需要有自然的买方、自然的卖方、商业方以及该产品的生产者，才能促成合约。

And most contracts need to have a natural buyer, a natural seller, a commercial, and a producer of that product in order to facilitate a contract.

这就是通常的情况……

And that's how it...

传统上，大多数合约都是这样获得批准的。

Traditionally, most contracts get approved.

否则，它们就不应该被批准。

Otherwise, they should not be approved.

所以我认为市场的可信度非常重要。

So I think that the credibility of the marketplace is is really important.

现在我们和一家叫Future Sports的公司开始了合作。

Now we started something with a company called Future Sports.

Future Sports来自澳大利亚，是一家很棒的公司，他们正在做非常了不起的事情。

Future Sports out of Australia, it's a great firm, and they're they're doing amazing things.

然后有人会说，如果你说你不太喜欢……那你是不是有点双重标准了。

And someone says, well, you're being a little, you know, two sided if you're saying that you don't like...

你觉得这些没有受到监管，应该由联邦政府而不是各州来监管。

You think these are not regulated and they should be regulated by the federal government, not the states.

那Future Sports呢？

What about future sports?

嗯，Future Sports是一个指数。

Well, future sports is an index.

这和标准普尔500指数非常相似。

It's very similar to the S and P 500.

每支球队从70,500分起步，然后根据表现上下浮动。

Every team starts out at 70,500, and you go up and down from there depending on performance.

但同时，这也能帮助球队所有者在不卖掉球队的情况下，实现球队价值的变现。

But at the same time, it helps people who own these teams monetize the value of their teams without selling them.

一个很好的例子就是芝加哥白袜队。

A great example, Chicago White Sox.

今年我们有幸成为芝加哥白袜队的赞助商，他们度过了一个出人意料的精彩赛季，没人预料到他们会取得这样的成绩。

We were fortunate enough to be a sponsor of the Chicago White Sox this year, and they had an amazing year that no one thought they were gonna have.

但我亲爱的朋友雷纳索尔，如果我有办法分担一些风险，比如在他的袖子上贴个补丁，他可能会向我收取更多费用，但我……

But my dear friend, Rainsor, probably could have charged me a lot more if I woulda had a vehicle to lay off some of that risk to put a patch on his sleeve, but I...

那个市场当时并不存在。

That market wasn't there.

所以，有办法做到这一点，你可以通过体育的经济体系来实现。

So there's ways to do that, and you can take that through the economic system of sports.

现在我们刚和NBA达成了合作。

And now we just did a deal with the NBA.

我们已经和MLB有了合作，这些人干得非常出色。

We've done a deal with MLB, and these guys have done an amazing job.

所以这对整个生态系统是有价值的。

So there's a value there to the ecosystem.

只是对我们个人来说没什么价值，在我看来，这就是最大的区别。

It's just not a value to you and I, and that, to me, is the big difference.

有些市场故事，你想了解每一个细节。

There are some market stories where you want every detail.

我和Tracy就基于这个原则做了不少播客，但有时候你只有十分钟，需要知道是什么在推动市场以及为什么。

Tracy and I have made quite a few podcasts on that basis, but sometimes you've only got ten minutes and need to know what's moving markets and why.

那就是Barclays Brief播客。

That's the Barclays Brief Podcast.

每周，巴克莱市场和研究的专家都会让你快速了解重要动态和接下来要关注什么，时间大约够你喝杯咖啡。

Every week, experts from Barclays markets and research get you up to speed on what matters and what to watch next about the time it takes to grab a coffee.

所以，在你获取播客的任何地方搜索Barclays brief。

So search Barclays brief wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg本周末播客，新闻、政治，以及Bloomberg轻松的一面。

The Bloomberg this weekend podcast, news, politics, and the lighter side of Bloomberg.

韩国的开发者们创建了多巴胺网站。

Developers in South Korea, they created dopamine websites.

他们基本上模拟在线购物，什么？

So they basically simulate online shopping What?

没有成本。

Without the cost.

那是食物和打击。

That's food one and crackdown.

所以你可以购买商品，但它们永远不会到达。

So you can buy items, but they're never gonna arrive.

购买商品。

Buy items.

它就是想让你感觉好。

It wants you to feel good.

把购物车填满。

Fill that cart.

填满购物车。

Fill the cart.

这会让你感觉很好。

It makes you feel good.

真的吗？

Does it?

Bloomberg 本周末播客。

The Bloomberg this weekend podcast.

今天就在 Apple、Spotify 或任何你听播客的地方订阅。

Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

我们能谈谈除了预测市场之外的永续期货吗？

Can we talk about perpetual futures in addition to prediction markets?

我知道接下来我们要请唐·威尔逊上节目。

I know we're gonna have Don Wilson on next.

关于永续合约，他和你的看法有点不同，有点不同。

He has a slightly different slightly different opinion to you when it comes to perps.

不过他是错的。

He's wrong, though.

我们得把他请出来。

We gotta bring him out here.

就这样。

That's it.

总之。

Anyway.

好的。

Alright.

嗯，我的意思是说

Well, I mean talk

关于那个

about The

变革还没完成。

change isn't done.

他为什么错了？

Why is he wrong?

而且，我好像刚看到CME因为行业反对，决定搁置24小时不间断石油永续合约的计划。

And also, I think I just saw that CME decided to shell plans for a twenty fourseven oil perp contract due to industry pushback.

反对的理由是什么？

What was the pushback?

我们没有列出24小时永续合约，因为永续合约是互换。

We didn't list the 24x7 perp contract because perps are swaps.

它们不是期货。

They're not futures.

这正是我们与CFTC诉讼的全部前提。

And that's the whole premise behind our litigation with the CFTC.

所以CFTC批准了用于货币交易的合约，把比特币列为永续期货。这种期货，你们有些听众可能知道，享受所谓的1256条税收待遇，也就是收益的60%按长期、40%按短期来算，因为期货合约里没有资本收益。

So the CFTC approved the contract for currency trading to list Bitcoin as perpetual futures, which futures, as some of your audience may or may not know, get what's called twelve fifty six tax treatment, which is 60 long term, 40 short terms on gains because there's no capital gains in futures contracts.

而互换则是按普通……

Swaps are done at ordinary...

按普通收入来征税。

Taxed at ordinary income.

互换还有五天的保证金清算期，如果没清算，就有十天的要求。

Swaps also comes with five days margin to clear, and if you don't clear, it's a ten day requirement.

作为互换交易商，你还需要向政府注册。

You also have requirements as a swap dealer to register with the government.

还有其他一些合规要求需要满足。

There's there's other, things that you need to do to be in compliance with that.

这是为什么？

Why is that?

因为在2010年的多德-弗兰克法案中，我作证超过30次，说明什么是互换，什么是期货。而永续合约有一个所谓的资金利率。

Because in Dodd Frank in 2010, I testified over 30 times of what a swap is and what a future is, And what perpetuals have is what's called a funding rate.

我会说到我的24.07美元石油，但我没有列出那个perb。

I'll get to my $24.07 oil, but I did not list the perb.

我没有为perb列出。

I didn't put for the perb.

我只是为24.07美元的石油和一个10桶的合约列出的，合约很小，只是为了和海外交易的一些平台竞争，那些平台按理说对美国参与者是非法的。

I just put for $24.07 oil and a 10 barrel contract, very small contract, just to compete with some of the platforms that are being traded overseas, which are supposed to be illegal for US participants.

但如果你有一部带VPN的电话，你就能进入市场。

But if you have a telephone with a VPN on it, you have access to the market.

而且没人……

And no one's...

回到你之前说的，谁在监管这个？

To your earlier point, who's policing that?

没人。

Nobody.

所以，不管怎样，永续合约的资金利率就是双方互相支付。

So, anyway, the funding rate of a perpetual is when two parties pay each other.

这就是永续合约的运作方式。

That's how that's how perpetual works.

如果你持有长仓位而市场下跌，那么短仓位的人就要向长仓位的人支付。

If you're long and the market goes down, the shorts are to be paying the longs.

而如果你持有长仓位而市场上涨，那么短仓位的人就要……

And if you're long and the market goes up, the shorts are...

反之亦然。

And vice versa.

所以这就是他们如何让市场与现货交易保持同步的。

So that's how they keep the market tied to the spot trade.

根据掉期的定义，只要两方互相支付，就被视为掉期。

In the definition of a swap, anytime two parties pay each other, it's deemed a swap.

所以他们绕过了国会。

So they circumvented congress.

这就是为什么我对永续合约有意见。

That's why I have a problem with perpetuals.

就是……

It's...

大家都觉得，嗯，它们没有到期日。

Everybody thinks, well, they have no expiration date.

这完全是另一回事，没有到期日的话，人们根本没法管理风险。

That's a that's a whole other story that people can't manage risk with no expiration dates.

还有……

There's...

如今，我们有四十万亿美元的债务。

In today's world, we have $40,000,000,000,000 of debt.

有些公司，它们对期货仓位、客户的现金仓位，都有巨额贷款。

There's corporations that have massive loans against futures positions, cash positions with their customers.

要做到这一点，他们需要一个确定的日期来执行。

In order to do that, they need to have a date certain when they're gonna do it.

资金利率的运作方式是，标记资金利率，可以每天一次、每天两次、每小时一次。

In a funding rate, the way it works to the mark the funding rate, it can happen either at one time a day, twice a day, every hour.

这个决定由谁来做？

Who makes that decision?

所以机构会觉得，这让我们没法交易。

So institutions go, this is impossible for us to trade.

所以我不支持目前这种形式的永久市场。

So I'm not a supporter of the perpetual market the way it's drafted today.

如果他们想把这些列为掉期交易，那就随他们吧。

And if they wanna list them as swaps, then so be it.

但那样的话，参与掉期市场就需要满足完全不同的资格要求，因为2008年金融危机之后就是这样规定的。

But then there's a whole different set of qualifications you have to have to participate in the swap market because that's what happened after the two thousand eight crash.

说到海外平台，人们通常用VPN访问，顺便提一下，如果你今天还没听，我们刚出了一集节目，邀请了Hyper Liquid的创始人Jeff Yan，他是这里的关键人物，大家可以去看一下。

Speaking of overseas platforms that people access with a VPN, incidentally, and if you haven't listened today, we did have an episode out with, Jeff Yan, the founder of Hyper Liquid, which is the elephant in the room here, so people can check that out.

特朗普总统特别说过，哦，我们要把Hyperliquid带到美国来。

President Trump specifically said, like, oh, we're gonna bring Hyperliquid to The US.

就像，什么……

Like, what...

你觉得这是怎么回事？

Do you have a theory for what's going on?

给正在听录音的听众说明一下

I mean, for for those listening the recording

你觉得特朗普总统对Hyperliquid了解很多吗？

You think you think you president Trump knows a lot about hyper liquid?

只是好奇。

Just curious.

我是个中立的记者。

I'm a I'm a unbiased journalist.

我不会在没有事实依据的情况下说话。

I don't say things without the fact.

我只是个中立的CEO。

I'm just an unbiased CEO.

我明白你的意思，但说真的。

I hear you, but come on.

那么，你对现在的情况有什么看法吗？

Well, do you have a theory for what's going on?

为什么会……

Why would...

你觉得总统为什么这么积极地拉拢那个海外基于区块链的perp平台？

Why do you think the president is, like, actively courting this overseas blockchain based perps platform?

嗯，我确实听到杰夫在你的节目上说过一些话，是的。

Well, here, I I did hear what Jeff had made some comments on your program Yeah.

基本上就是说他自己不需要被监管，需要被监管的是用户。

Essentially saying he does not need to be regulated, that the users need to be regulated.

部署者。

The deployers.

部署者。

The deployers.

所以如果你交易XYZ，那是其中之一，是的。

So if you're trade x y z, which is one of the Yeah.

Hyperliquid 的业务中，98% 是由 Trade XYZ 完成的。

98% of Hyperliquids business is done by trade x y z.

剩下的部分则是在他们的加密货币特许经营上。

The other is on their crypto franchise.

那是他们在 Hyperliquid 加密货币上列出的唯一产品，而 Trade XYZ 则在平台上列出其他产品。

That's the only thing that they list at Hyperliquids crypto, and then Trade x y z lists the other products on the platform.

所以他们的核心论点基本上是，他们只是管道。

So they're basically the plumbing is what Jeff's argument is.

我和 Jeff 谈过这件事。

I've talked to Jeff about this.

其实我挺喜欢他的。

I actually like him.

我觉得他是个非常聪明的人。

I think he's a brilliant, brilliant guy.

但与此同时，这里没有 KYC 或了解你的客户。

But at the same time, you know, there's no KYC or know your client.

这是个问题。

That's an issue.

区块链上还有自动清算的情况，那也是问题。

There is situations on the blockchain where there's auto liquidation, which is also a problem.

还有高杠杆的产品。

There's highly leveraged products.

这些情况可能会连锁反应，引发市场波动，因为杠杆高而且里面的资金量小。

These things can cascade and create market moving events because of the high leverage and the small amount of dollars in there.

所以你看Hyperliquid平台上交易的一些杠杆产品，杠杆率可以从10%到15%一直到250%。

So when you look at some of the leveraged products being traded on Hyperliquids platform, their leverage can go anywhere from say 10 to 15% to 250%.

想象一下某些产品有250%的杠杆。

So you think about 250% leverage on certain products.

不需要多大的波动，一两个百分点就能让某人出局，不管涨还是跌。

I mean, doesn't take more than a tick or two to start to get somebody out one way or the other.

而如果他们被强制平仓，可能连累下一个人，这样就形成了向上或向下的连锁反应。

And if they take you out, they might take the next guy out, and you have a cascading up or down.

这不是一个好的交易市场。

That's not a good marketplace.

我觉得Jeff需要明白，如果他要竞争并且想在美国竞争，而且总统都建议他这么做，那他就得搞清楚怎么在美国法律下竞争，因为他说的那些是不符合美国法律的。

I think Jeff needs to understand if he's gonna compete and wants to compete in The United States and he's got the president suggesting he should, then he's gonna have to understand how to compete under US law because what he's saying does not comply with US law.

这实际上违反了核心原则九，我可以详细解释核心原则九的各种细节，但基本上就是公平和即时的市场准入，但作为机构，你有责任确保你在监管这些市场，而不仅仅是作为用户。

It's actually in violation of core principle nine, and I can go through all the nuances of core principle nine, but it's basically fair and ready market access to all, but you have an obligation to make certain that you're policing these markets as an institution, not just as the user.

所以我们没有KYC，我们甚至不知道平台上的人是谁。

So we have no KYC, so we don't even know who's on the platform.

但同时他又说，我不负责，你可以交易。

But at the same time, he's saying, I'm not responsible, you can trade on it.

所以你在和那些可能根本不该参与的人交易，他们正在影响市场结果，往哪个方向呢？

So you're trading with people that maybe shouldn't even be participating and they're affecting that market outcome, which way?

我不知道，因为没有KYC，我们不知道他们是谁。

I don't know, because there's no KYC, we don't know who they are.

所以他在你的节目上提出的那些建议，真的有很多违反美国法律的地方。

So there's a lot of violation of US law for him to deploy what he was suggesting on your show.

那我再问一个刁钻的问题。

So I'm gonna ask another devil's advocate question.

我想先说明一下。

I wanna make clear.

这是刁钻的问题，别对我发火。

Devil's advocate, please don't come at me.

但就杠杆这一点来说，

But just on the leverage point

别说‘perp’。

Don't say perp.

就杠杆这一点。

Just on the leverage point.

曹实说他们在平台上的杠杆限制在六倍左右。

I mean, Cao Shi says they limit leverage to like six times on their platform.

CFTC主席提到过，如果他们在美国这样做的话。

The CFTC chairman has talked about if they do it in The U.