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市场变化迅速。
Markets move fast.
通过巴克莱简报——来自巴克莱投资银行的播客，在十分钟内获取您所需的信息。
Get the insights you need in ten minutes with Barclays brief, a podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.
每周，我们的专家都会分析市场主题，帮助您预判下一步动向。
Each week, our experts analyze market themes, helping you anticipate what's next.
在您收听播客的任何平台收听巴克莱简报。
Listen to Barclays brief wherever you get your podcasts.
彭博早间新闻是您在早晨第一时间获取资讯的最佳方式，直接在您的播客推送中。
Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning right in your podcast feed.
嗨。
Hi.
我是凯伦·莫斯科。
I'm Karen Moscow.
我是内森·哈格。
And I'm Nathan Hager.
每天早上，我们都会早早起床制作《彭博早间新闻》美国版的最新一期节目。
Each morning, we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US edition.
这是您每天十五分钟的播客，为您带来全球新闻、政治和国际关系的最新动态。
It's your daily fifteen minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics, and international relations.
每天早上收听《彭博早间新闻》美国版播客，获取重要新闻及其所需的背景信息。
Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.
您可以在苹果、Spotify 或任何您收听播客的平台找到我们。
Find us on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
彭博音频工作室，
Bloomberg Audio Studios,
播客、广播、新闻。
podcasts, radio, news.
您好，欢迎收听《奇闻异事》播客的另一期节目。
Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.
我是特蕾西·阿拉瓦。
I'm Tracy Allaway.
我是乔·维森塔尔。
And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.
乔，我们每次都是以有人说‘到了一年中的这个时候’开始。
Joe, we always start these the same with someone saying, it's that time of year.
然后我说，这是最美好的时光。
And then I say, it's the most wonderful time of year.
没错。
That's right.
从未改变过。
Never changed.
听预报季。
Listen forecast season.
这是展望季。
It's the outlook season.
是的。
Yeah.
这是华尔街每家投资银行发布预测的时候。
It is the moment when every investment bank on Wall Street releases Yeah.
他们对明年的预测。
Their forecasts for next year.
没错。
Yeah.
这是一个很棒的时刻。
And it's a great time.
你知道，我们每年这个时候都会制定新年决心。
You know, we make New Year's resolutions this time of year.
我们回顾过去。
We go back.
我们列出今年发生的十件大事和预测。
We give we make our list of top 10 things that happened and predictions.
这正是你们应该做的，因为节日期间新闻通常会变得冷清。
That's what you're supposed to news gets a little quiet often around the holidays.
所以我们通过回顾过去和展望未来来弥补这一点。
So we make up for it by just looking back and looking forward.
然后一年后，我们完全忘记了大家对今年的预测，只是继续前进，再做下一年的预测。
And then a year later, we completely forget what everyone said about the current year, and we just move on and do the next year again.
总是面向未来。
Always forward looking.
不过我认为，2026年由于各种原因，可能会成为一个有趣的年份。
Although I do think, you know, 2026 shaping up to be an interesting year for a variety of reasons.
我们刚刚公布了CPI数据，出人意料地比许多人的预期要温和得多。
We just had a CPI number that came out surprisingly softer than a lot of people expected.
有些人说，这种温和程度甚至不切实际，因为住房成本涨幅为0%。
Some people say unrealistically softer with 0% shelter costs increase.
所以这很有趣。
So that was interesting.
我们将迎来一位新的美联储主席。
We're gonna have a new Fed chairman.
是的。
Yeah.
关税的影响仍是一个疑问，我们正在等待它们显现出来。
There's still a question mark over the impact of tariffs, whether we're waiting to see those show up.
失业率又会怎样呢？
And what's gonna happen with unemployment as well?
失业率一直在上升。
That's been ticking up.
而这一年，股市显然表现得极为出色。
And then it's been this really incredible year, obviously, in the stock market.
美国股市年复一年持续上涨，尽管偶尔有例外，但很少出现大幅下跌的情况。
The US stock market just continues year after year after year with a few exceptions here and there, but not many putting up massive numbers.
问题是，这种势头能持续多久？尤其是在当前对市场集中度和少数几只股票表现不佳的担忧背景下。
The question is like, how long is this realistic, especially given all the concerns about concentration and a handful of names, some of which haven't really been doing so well lately.
关于实体经济和股市，我们面临太多问题。
So many questions on both the real economy and the stock market.
是的。
Yeah.
确实，一些大型人工智能或科技公司的表现开始出现分化。
There's definitely been some dispersion creeping into some of the big AI names or the tech names.
好吧。
All right.
很高兴地说，我们确实请到了完美的嘉宾。
Well, I'm happy to say we do in fact have the perfect guest to plural.
我们有两位。
We've got two.
我们将与简·哈齐奥斯对话。
So we're gonna be speaking with Jan Hatzios.
他是高盛的首席经济学家兼研究主管。
He's the chief economist and head of research at Goldman Sachs.
他以前多次上过这个节目，我们至少每年都会和他聊一次。
He's been on the show a number of times before, and we like talking to him at least once a year.
本·斯奈德是美国股票策略主管，接替了大卫·科斯汀的职位。
And Ben Snyder, he is the chief US equity strategist replacing David Costin.
感谢你们两位做客《全思》节目。
So thank you both for coming on All Thoughts.
非常感谢你们邀请我们。
Thanks so much for having us.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
研究展望期对你们来说真的是个安静的时期吗？
Is research outlook time is that actually a quiet time for you guys?
这可不是安静的时候。
It's not a quiet time.
实际上，我们通常会提前六周做这件事。
Normally, actually do it about six weeks earlier.
是的。
Yeah.
因为实际上，十一月通常比十二月要好一些。
Because, actually, November tends to be a little bit better than December.
但由于政府停摆和数据匮乏，我们决定推迟。
But because of the shutdown and the dearth of data, we decided to push it back.
我们完全有权决定何时发布，为什么要在信息更少的时候发布呢？
It's completely under our control when we do it, and why do it at a time when you actually have much less information
那
That
很有道理。
makes than sense.
所以我们昨天发布了多项报告，包括全球宏观经济与市场展望。
So, we pushed out a number of reports yesterday, including the global economic and markets outlook.
你们两位能否再谈一谈？虽然角色不同，但同属一个团队。
Can you talk, the two of you maybe again, so obviously different roles, but on the same team.
显然，股票市场，尤其是美国股市，与经济是不同的。
Obviously the stock market, US equity market is different from the economy.
你可能会遇到一些年份，经济表现良好但股市低迷，反之亦然，各种组合情况都有。
And you can have years where the economy is fine, stocks are bad and vice versa, all different permutations and combinations.
但你们如何确保跨团队的一致性，使大家大致在相似的假设下工作呢？
But how do you think about being in alignment cross team so that roughly you're working under a similar set of assumptions?
是的，我可以谈谈这一点。
Yeah, I can talk about that.
这不仅涉及美国或全球经济增长前景与股市前景之间的关系，当然还包括汇率、新兴市场经济体和大宗商品。
And not just with respect to The US or global economic outlook versus stock market outlook, but of course, there's currencies, there's EM economies, there's commodities.
在宏观层面，我可以说，我们处于协调性较强的一端。
Certainly on the macro side, I would say, were on the coordinated side of the spectrum.
没有人会走向任何一个极端。
Nobody is at one extreme or the other extreme.
你不能让团队成员彼此完全不沟通，但也不应该变成一个机械化的系统，一切都完全一致，毫无个人主动性的空间。
You can't have people that just work alongside one another without ever talking to one another, but you also shouldn't have just a machine where everything is exactly aligned and there's zero room for individual initiative.
所以，我们毫无疑问更偏向协调的一端。
So but we're we're towards the coordinated side for sure.
你昨天提到过，这是一个对听众来说很好的提醒。
Well, you mentioned yesterday, a good time to note to listeners.
我们今天录制的时间是2025年12月19日。
We are recording this 12/19/2025.
本，你怎么看待将你对市场走向或牛市意义的看法，与宏观思维对齐呢？
Ben, how do you think about sort of working with aligning your views of where markets are going or what the meaning of the rally has with the sort of with the macro thinking?
关于股票市场，有多种分析框架，但其中一种很常见且我们经常使用的是：将市场视为未来现金流的折现值。
There are a number of frameworks to think about the equity market, but a pretty common one and one we rely on a lot is to think of the market like a stock as a discounted stream of future cash flows.
从这个角度来看，股票最重要的驱动因素是现金流，也就是盈利。
And from that perspective, the most important driver of stocks is that stream of cash flows is earnings.
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果进一步拆解，这些现金流最重要的驱动因素通常是美国经济。
And if you break those apart, the most important driver of those cash flows is usually The US economy.
因此，我们非常依赖简的预测。
So we rely very heavily on Jan's forecast.
关于简的预测，我注意到你预测了强劲的经济增长，比如GDP，但同时也预测了失业率上升。
So in terms of Jan's forecast, I noticed you're forecasting strong growth as in GDP, but also rising unemployment.
你如何调和这两者之间的矛盾？
How do you square those two things?
我们的失业率保持在4.5%的水平，但并不会像你预期的那样下降，比如当你看到2026年2月实际GDP增长2.6%时。
We have flat unemployment at 4.5%, but it's not going down as you might think when you're printing, let's say, 2.6 for real GDP in 02/2026.
其中一小部分原因是，这个2.6%的数据可能略微高估了潜在趋势，因为我们之前有政府停摆，导致第四季度受压，而这一影响会反映在第一季度中。
And a small part of the answer is that that 2.6 probably overstates the underlying trend a bit because we had the shutdown that depressed Q4, it's going to add to Q1.
但更重要的原因是生产率增长正在加速。
But the more important part of the answer is accelerating productivity growth.
过去五年我们已经看到了这一点。
And we've seen that over the last five years.
自疫情以来的五年里，生产率的潜在增长率约为2%。
The five years since the pandemic have shown about 2% underlying trend productivity growth.
上一个周期的水平约为1.5%。
The prior cycle was at about 1.5%.
我认为有理由相信这种加速仍在持续，因为目前的增长中可能还没有太多人工智能的贡献。
And I think there's reason to believe that that acceleration is still ongoing because it probably doesn't have a lot of AI in it.
我们预计，在未来五年，人工智能带来的提振将超过过去五年。
We expect more of a boost from AI going forward in the next five years than in the last five years.
我认为这对GDP与失业率之间的关系有着重要影响。
And I think that's got important implications for the relationship between GDP and unemployment.
因此，增长的分布很重要。
So, the distribution of growth matters.
当我们谈论股市时，这一点似乎尤其重要，因为有些行业可能非常平静，但与此同时，一些巨型公司赚取了巨额利润，占据了大部分增长，导致它们的股价表现极为出色。
It seems to particularly matter when we're talking about the stock market because you can have sectors that are very quiet, but then you have these gigantic companies that make a ton of money and capture a lot of the growth that their stocks do incredibly well.
也许在我们讨论2026年的经济前景之前，本，先回顾一下2025年发生了什么会更有帮助。
Maybe it would be helpful even before we get to the 2026 outlook for the economy, Ben.
2025年发生了什么？
Like, what happened in 2025?
是什么底层条件促成了又一个如此强劲的年份，尤其是对纳斯达克和许多大型科技股而言？
What were the underlying conditions that allowed for such, like, another monster year, especially for the NASDAQ and a lot of big tech names.
所以回到盈利问题上
So to bring it back to earnings
是的。
Yeah.
发生的一件事是盈利增长非常强劲。
One thing that happened was really strong earnings growth.
我认为，在所有关于泡沫的讨论中，被低估的是企业盈利增长有多么强劲。
And I think among all the discussions of bubbles, what's underappreciated is just how strong corporate earnings growth has been.
是的。
Yeah.
几周前刚刚结束第三季度的财报季，标普500公司整体报告的盈利增长为12%。
Just wrapped up the third quarter season a few weeks ago, and S and P 500 companies in aggregate reported earnings growth of 12%.
即使剔除巨型公司，标普500中位数股票的盈利增长也达到了约10%。
Even if we strip out the mega caps, the median S and P stock reported earnings growth of about 10%.
这非常强劲。
That's very solid.
这似乎是一个被忽视的要点，即，没错，由人工智能驱动的市场、科技主导的市场，不仅仅如此，
This is seems to be like an underappreciated point, which is that, look, yeah, the AI driven market, the tech heavy market, it is not just that,
是吗？
is it?
我们来就此延伸一下。
We'll take an extension from this.
我们花了很多时间，理所当然地讨论市场中最大的股票。
We spend a lot of time understandably talking about the largest stocks in the market.
前十大股票的市值占比超过40%。
The top 10 stocks are over 40 of market cap.
我们确实应该花很多时间讨论它们。
We should spend a lot of time talking about them.
但如果你看一下标普490或493指数，这一组股票今年的回报率约为15%。
But if you look at the S and P four ninety or four ninety three, that market or that group of stocks has returned about 15% this year.
去年它们的回报率也约为15%。
They returned about 15% last year.
前一年，它们的回报率也约为15%。
They returned about 15% the year prior.
所以我理解我们为什么关注大市值股票，但事实上，整个美国股市的表现相当不错。
And so I understand why we're talking about the large stocks, but really, the broad US equity market has performed quite well.
那么，你如何解释最近几周一些巨型科技股出现的疲软呢？
Well, how do you account for, I guess, the weakness that we've seen in some of the megatech stocks in recent weeks?
那里发生了什么？
What's going on there?
三年来，我们一直对AI作为市场主题着迷。
For three years, we've been obsessed with AI as a market.
三年来，核心故事一直是资本支出增加，AI投资支出的非凡增长。
And for three years, really, the story has been increased CapEx, extraordinary growth in AI investment spending.
尽管我们讨论了很多最终的生产率提升，正如简提到的，股市交易实际上聚焦于那些受益于这些资本支出的公司。
And although we're discussing a lot the eventual productivity benefits, as Jan mentioned, really the trade in the equity market has been the companies with earnings that are benefiting from those CapEx dollars.
而今年，尤其是过去几个月，越来越清楚的是：A，明年这种增长可能会放缓。
And what's happened this year, especially in the last several months, is it's become increasingly clear that, A, probably that growth will decelerate next year.
B，要维持这种增长，将需要更多的债务。
And B, to continue that growth, it's going to require more debt.
这两个因素都让投资者感到不安，这是可以理解的。
And both of those factors have made investors understandably uncomfortable.
简，今年最火爆的图表之一，是关于AI建设对2025年及以后美国经济增长驱动作用的各种估算。
Jan, one of the viral charts of the year, various estimates of how much the AI build out specifically is a driver of US economic growth in 2025 and beyond.
当你看2025年的GDP时，你能把多少增长归因于本刚才提到的内容？
How much like when you look at the GDP in 2025, how much of the growth can you attribute to what Ben just talked about?
实际上接近于零。
Actually pretty close to zero.
真的吗？
Really?
这几乎接近于零。
This is pretty close to zero.
有两个原因。
Love for two reasons.
第一，人工智能领域所投资的设备大多为进口。
Number one, the goods that are being invested in the AI sector are largely imported.
因此，你可以观察投资支出对GDP增长的贡献，但如果你不将进口部分扣除，就会得到错误的结论。
So, you can look at the contribution of investment spending to GDP growth, but if you don't net that out against the imports, then you're going to get the wrong answer.
这是其中一个原因。
That's one reason.
第二个原因是，半导体通常被视为中间投入品，而非投资。
Second reason is that semiconductors are generally treated as intermediate inputs, not as investment.
因此，它们实际上不会体现在投资数据中。
So they don't actually show up in the investment numbers.
所以，当我们观察人工智能投资对经公布的GDP增长数据的影响时，过去三四年中，其贡献仅约为20个基点，而过去一年则几乎为零。
And so, when we look at the impact of AI investment on measured GDP growth, on the numbers that are actually being printed, we're getting only about 20 basis points of contribution over the last three or four years, and pretty close to zero over the last year.
这在我看来是一个非常重要的观点，因为其他人估计今年50%的增长都与人工智能建设有关。
So, strikes me as such an important point, because you have other people estimating Oh, 50% of growth this year is related to the AI build out.
你是不是经常觉得头都大了？
Are you just always banging your head against the wall?
因为你每天都会看到这些头条新闻，就像我们其他人一样。
Because you must see these headlines every day like the rest of us.
我确实这么认为，因为这些观点通常只是基于对部分投资支出的观察。
I do bet because oftentimes it's just based on looking at some portion of investment spending.
有时这些计算中还包含了其他并非与人工智能直接相关的内容。
Sometimes there are also other things included in those calculations that aren't necessarily AI related.
但关键点在于，你还需要考虑进口因素。
But the big point is that you really need to look at the imports as well.
本，在我们继续之前，我应该问一下，你对标普500指数2026年的目标是多少？
Ben, I should just ask before we go any further, what actually is your 2026 target for the S and P 500?
因为我们还没看到官方的预测。
Because we haven't seen the official outlook yet.
我们公布的预测是7600点。
We've published 7,600.
好的。
Okay.
所以我想问一件事，这在严的经济展望中提到过，但你谈到信贷可能表现不佳，这似乎有点奇怪，因为利率正在下降，而且股市表现相当不错。
So one thing I did wanna ask, this was in Yan's economic outlook, but you talk about potentially credit underperforming, which seems a little bit strange if interest rates are going lower and, you know, equities are doing pretty good.
那这是怎么回事呢？
What's going on there?
我的意思是，主要是因为估值已经非常高了。
I mean, it's mainly really that the valuations are very high.
我们认为信贷的基本面仍然相当良好。
The credit fundamentals, we think, are still pretty good.
但市场定价已经预设了——我不是说完美，但至少是非常乐观的情景。在这种情况下，我的本能总是会考虑一点均值回归，这会导致轻微的逊色表现。
But the market is priced to, I mean, not perfection perhaps, but to a very positive And so, in that kind of situation, my instinct would always be to build in a little bit of mean reversion, and that would give you a modest amount of underperformance.
但我不会说这是对我们明年整体观点的主要部分。
But I wouldn't say that that's a major part of our our overall views for the next year.
我有个问题，也许这个问题不太适合当前的对话节奏，但我担心如果不现在问，我就会忘记，所以我还是现在问吧。
I have a question, and it's one of these things maybe it doesn't fit right into this moment in the conversation, but I'm so worried that I'm gonna forget it that I'm gonna ask it now.
我们今天是12月19日录制的。
So we are recording this December 19.
我们昨天收到了CPI报告。
We got that CPI report yesterday.
核心CPI为2.6%，是同比数据，因为我们没有十月的数据。
Came in 2.6 on core, is year over year because we didn't have October data.
然后有人就说，等等，他们假设租金增长为零。
Then there were people like, Wait, they imputed a zero rent growth.
在没有收集数据的情况下，他们对十月的住房通胀假设为零，等等。
There's zero shelter inflation for October when they didn't collect the data, etcetera.
但我想，好吧。
But then I'm like, okay.
这听起来并不特别准确，或者至少显得有点冒险。
That doesn't sound particularly accurate or that doesn't sound like that sounds a little risky.
但另一方面，我们讨论的是同比数据，所以我都不确定十月的数据为什么会影响这个数字。
But on the other hand, we're talking about a year over year number, so I'm not even sure why October really affects that.
在我们继续之前，你能解释一下我该如何理解昨天的CPI报告吗？
Can you just, before we go any further, explain how I should understand yesterday's CPI report?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，他们使用六个月的租金增长率，并且假设十月的环比增长为零。
I mean, they use a six month growth rate for rents, and they did assume a zero sequentially for October.
这也会降低截至十一月数据的年同比增长率。
And that does take away from the year on year growth rate as of the November number as well.
因此，我们认为昨天的数据中住房通胀被低估了，这些数字并不像十月和十一月核心CPI平均八基点所显示的那样乐观。
So we do think that shelter inflation in yesterday's numbers was understated, and the numbers are not quite as good as the eight basis points for core CPI on average for October and November
这与数据所暗示的不符。
would suggest.
所以，捕捉租金不像测量香蕉那样简单，我不能说：2025年11月香蕉的价格是多少。
So capturing rent is not like measuring bananas where I could say, here's the price of a banana in November 2025.
2024年11月香蕉的价格是多少。
Here's the price of a banana in November 2024.
因此可以直接计算年同比变化。
Therefore, you could just do a year over year thing.
你不能这么做。
You can't do that.
因为他们不是这样做的。
Because they don't they don't do it that way.
他们不会只看一个月，而且这还涉及
They don't look at just one month and It's also
业主等效租金。
owners equivalent rent.
但那是另一个问题，因为这种扭曲同时影响了实际租金和业主等效租金，所以情况没那么好。
Well, that's the that's a separate point because this distortion affects both actual rent and owner's equivalent So, it wasn't as good.
而且，由于11月的价格采集时间接近感恩节，接近黑色星期五的促销活动，可能低估了商品领域的价格，这也可能带来其他一些扭曲。
And there probably also were some other distortions stemming from the fact that prices were collected in the November pretty close to Thanksgiving, pretty close to the Black Friday deals that may have understated prices in the goods sector.
但如果你退一步，从更宏观的角度来看通胀数据，情况还是相当令人鼓舞的。
But I think if you step back and look at the inflation news more big picture, it's pretty encouraging.
我们已经看到了关税带来的2025年显著的传导效应。
We've seen twenty twenty five meaningful amount of pass through from tariffs.
我们认为这为核心PCE通胀贡献了50个基点。
We think about 50 basis points of contribution to core PCE inflation.
在这种环境下，核心PCE通胀一直呈横盘走势。
Core PCE inflation in that environment has been going sideways.
因此，如果你剔除这50个基点，认为这确实是一种价格水平效应，更像是一种增值税上调，并将在2026年从数据中消失，那么我们已经看到了持续的通缩，其基础利率已不再远离2%。
So, if you take out the 50 basis points, if you think that that's really a price level effect that's more like a value added tax increase and is going to come out of the numbers in 2026, then we've seen ongoing disinflation to an underlying rate that's no longer that far away from 2%.
这是个非常好的消息。
And that's pretty good news.
今天的市场变化迅速。
Today's markets move fast.
通过巴克莱简报——巴克莱投资银行推出的新播客，您可以在十分钟内获取所需洞察。
Get the insights you need in ten minutes with The Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.
通过敏锐的对话和基于情景的分析，我们的顶尖专家每周剖析关键市场主题。
Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week.
因此，无论您是在管理投资组合还是领导企业，巴克莱简报播客都能帮助您今天做出更明智的决策。
So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, The Barclays brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today.
保持敏锐。
Stay sharp.
保持资讯更新。
Stay briefed.
在您收听播客的任何平台搜索《Barclays Brief》。
Find Barclays brief wherever you get your podcasts.
我是詹妮弗·扎巴萨贾，欢迎收听《下一非洲》播客，这是彭博社每周推出的节目，聚焦塑造全球最年轻、增长最快大陆未来的故事。
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja, and this is the Next Africa podcast, Bloomberg's weekly show about the stories shaping the future of the world's youngest, fastest growing continent.
每周五，《下一个非洲》播客深入挖掘新闻头条背后的真相，从可能引发地区冲突的埃塞俄比亚大型水电大坝，到博茨瓦纳努力摆脱对钻石的依赖，再到重塑非洲创意经济的音乐节。
Every Friday, the Next Africa podcast goes deeper than the headlines from Ethiopia's giant hydroelectric dam that could spark a regional showdown to Botswana's struggle to move beyond diamonds to music festivals transforming Africa's creative economy.
我们揭示了推动整个大陆变革的思想、冲突与机遇。
We uncovered the ideas, conflicts, and opportunities driving change across the continent.
凭借彭博社记者驻守拉各斯、开罗、约翰内斯堡等地的实地报道，您将获得其他地方无法找到的背景信息，了解13亿人如何重新定义全球市场、文化和权力。
With Bloomberg journalists on the ground in Lagos, Cairo, Johannesburg, and beyond, you'll get the context you won't find anywhere else, how 1,300,000,000 people are redefining global markets, culture, and power.
《下一个非洲》播客，由彭博社出品。
The Next Africa Podcast from Bloomberg.
权力、政策与繁荣，尽在一处。
Power, policy, and prosperity all in one place.
立即关注《Next Africa》播客，每周五在苹果播客、Spotify 或您收听的任何平台与我们相聚。
Follow the Next Africa Podcast now and join us every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.
我们能谈谈价格和关税吗？
Can we talk about prices and tariffs?
我非常好奇，回溯到四月二日，所有关税公告发布时，您对通胀影响的基准预期是什么？
And I'm very curious, casting your mind back to April, April 2, when all the tariff announcements came out, what was your base case for the impact on inflation?
因为似乎有两种观点。
Because there seem to be two schools of thought.
有些人认为企业会利用关税作为提价的借口。
There are people who think companies are going use tariffs as an excuse to raise their prices.
而另一些人则认为，关税最终具有通缩效应，因为它们本质上像税收一样从消费者口袋里拿走了钱。
And then there are people who think that tariffs end up being disinflationary because they basically take money out of consumers' pockets like a tax.
我们当时的传导率大约为100个基点，但最终，到目前为止我认为大约是50个基点。
We had probably more like a 100 basis points of pass through and we ended up, I mean, so far I think with about 50 basis points.
但仍然有一个问题，即这部分影响在多大程度上反映了较小的冲击、更大的吸收能力——可能由企业部门承担，甚至在一定程度上由外国生产商承担，尽管我认为后者的影响相对较小，而非仅仅是时间分布不同和滞后更长。
And there's still a question of how much of this reflects just a smaller impact, greater absorption, maybe by the business sector, and perhaps to a small degree by foreign producers, although I actually think that number is relatively small, versus just a different time profile and a longer lag.
我们目前还不确定，但很可能是这两种因素的结合。
We don't know that yet, but it's probably some combination of the two.
我认为我们在看待这个问题时始终一致的一点是，这更多是一种价格水平效应。
The one thing that I think has been consistent in terms of how we think about it is that this is more of a price level effect.
我见过许多欧洲经济体的增值税上调案例，其中增值税率通常会上升而非下降。
And I've seen a lot of VAT increases in European economies where VAT rates often move usually upwards rather than downwards.
我们有许多先例表明，这类税收增加会导致通胀在十二个月内上升，而当其逐渐退出后，通胀又会下降。
And we've got many precedents that have shown a twelve month increase in inflation on the back of one of these tax increases, and then a decline when that gets cycled out.
本，我们来谈谈关税对股市的影响。
Ben, let's talk about tariffs on the stock market.
如果股市的上涨仅仅是由几家大型科技公司推动的，我们可能会说，当然关税无关紧要，因为它们对关税不敏感，等等。
Because if the stock gains had just been driven by a bunch of big tech companies, we'd say, Oh, of course the tariffs didn't matter because they're not as tariff sensitive, etcetera.
但当我们谈到标普493指数也表现优异时，这对我来说并不直观。
But when we're talking about the fact that the S and P four ninety three also did very well, it's not intuitive to me.
我原本以为利润空间会被压缩。
Would have guessed crimped margins.
我会猜是销售额下降，各种情况都有。
I would have guessed lower sales, all kinds of things.
从股票市场的角度看，关税的影响最终是如何体现的？
How did it all shake out from the equity perspective, the impact of tariffs?
这也是我们的担忧。
This was our concern too.
收益的大部分波动是由利润率波动驱动的。
Most of earnings variability is driven by margin variability.
当某几年利润增长大幅上升或大幅下降时，通常都是因为利润率的变化。
When you have years with very large earnings growth or very poor earnings growth, it's usually because of margins.
没错。
Yeah.
今年早些时候，我们担心由于关税的影响，利润率会被挤压，从而拖累收益。
And earlier this year, we were concerned that in part because of tariffs, margins would get squeezed and that would weigh on earnings.
担心的不只是你一个人。
It wasn't just you who was concerned.
但实际情况并没有发生。
And it and it really didn't materialize.
现在，我认为我们必须牢记的是反事实情况。
Now, I think part of what we have to keep in mind is the counterfactual.
对。
Right.
在过去的几个季度里，标普500的利润率基本保持平稳。
So for the last couple of quarters, S and P 500 profit margins have basically been flat.
在名义GDP增长相当健康的情况下，通常你会预期某种经营杠杆会推动利润率上升。
Well, in an environment of pretty healthy nominal GDP growth, normally you would expect some operating leverage that would cause margins to expand.
所以我认为，这里的一部分原因是，你没有看到那种反事实情况。
And so I think part of the story here is you didn't get that counterfactual.
但过去几个季度，我们一致看到，公司在财报电话会议上都明确提到，他们一直在利用三个手段来应对这些压力。
But we've seen consistently over the last few quarters, companies across earnings calls really point to three levers they've been pulling to offset these pressures.
第一点，正如简提到的，通过提价来传递部分成本。
One is, of course, as Jan mentioned, pushing through some in the form of prices.
第二点是，要求供应商承担更多责任，在必要时重组供应链。
Second is both pushing back on suppliers to absorb restructuring supply chains where necessary.
第三点是削减成本、提升公司内部效率，这与我们看到的稍有改善的生产率表现密切相关。
And the third is cutting costs, improving efficiency within companies, and that ties back to the slightly better productivity story we've seen.
所以我们早些时候谈到了生产率的提升，你认为其主要的推动作用尚未到来。
So we talked about rising productivity early, and you think that the main boost from it is yet to come.
当这种生产率加速真正到来时，谁会在股票市场中获得最大收益？
Who actually captures that productivity acceleration when it comes to the equity market?
比如，你知道的，大型科技公司股价已经大幅上涨，而现在我们看到一些非科技公司也开始迎头赶上。
Like, you know, the big tech guys, they've risen quite a lot, and now we're seeing some of the nontech companies start to catch up.
谁将从中受益最多？
Who's gonna benefit the most?
嗯，我想这可以说是价值万亿美元的问题，这么说都还是低估了这个问题的重要性。
Well, this is, I guess, call it a trillion dollar question is to understate the value of this this question.
我认为，我们和大多数客户普遍认为，人工智能最终将为经济带来巨大的生产力提升。
I think the general consensus certainly that we have and that most of our clients have is that AI eventually will create a very large productivity boost to the economy.
这将为某个人创造价值。
That will create value for someone.
但这个人会是谁，很难回答。
Who that someone is, is hard to answer.
正如我之前提到的，由于过去几年存在这种不确定性，市场一直专注于短期收益。
And as I mentioned earlier, what the market has been doing, given that uncertainty over the last couple of years, is really focusing on near term earnings.
这显然是半导体行业。
It's been the semiconductors, obviously.
在某种程度上，还有超大规模云服务商、电力公司等。
It's been the hyperscalers to some extent, power companies, etc.
我认为，这实际上是当前市场与25年前互联网泡沫时期的一个关键区别：当时投资者试图展望未来，猜测生产力提升和经济效益，导致估值大幅膨胀。
I think that is actually one of the key differences between this market and what happened twenty five years ago during the dot com bubble, where we saw valuations expand quite dramatically as investors tried to look forward and guess at the productivity gains and the economic benefits.
如今，投资者说：我们看到了那时发生的事情。
Today, investors are saying, we saw what happened that time.
这太难了。
It's too hard.
我们真正要关注的是今天的收益。
What we're really going to focus on is the earnings today.
这非常重要。
This is really important.
你的观点是，至少从公开股票投资者的行为来看，你没有看到任何人放飞想象力的迹象。
Your view is that at least from the behavior of public equity investors, you do not see any particular element of people letting their imaginations run wild.
当然，个股层面也有例外。
Of course, there are exceptions at the stock level.
当然。
Sure.
在某种程度上，如果一只股票的走势与因AI资本支出投资而大幅增长的收益同步，那么隐含的假设是，这些投资带来的收益将在长期内持续。
And to some extent, if a stock trades hand in hand with earnings that are growing dramatically because of AI CapEx investment, the implicit assumption is the earnings from that investment are sustained over a long period of time.
因此，也许有人会认为，股价的上涨幅度实际上应该小于收益的增长。
So maybe one could argue actually the prices should go up by less than earnings.
所以我说市场中并非没有乐观情绪。
So I won't say there's no optimism in the market.
以当前的估值水平来看，显然存在乐观情绪。
Valuations at the current level, there's clearly optimism.
但这与我几年前预期的乐观情绪非常不同，坦率地说，正如你所问的，投资者会去寻找长期赢家并立即为他们支付高价。
But it's a very different kind of optimism from, frankly, what I expected a few years ago, which is to trace your question, investors will be asking who are the long term winners and trying to pay for those immediately.
但这并不是实际情况。
That has really not been the story.
实际上，我认为在过去几个月我们与客户的对话中，关键的转变在于：随着对AI基础设施交易的焦虑日益增加，以及我们首次看到一些上市公司悄悄量化AI带来的收益增长，叙事重心已从‘半导体和其他基础设施公司明年能赚多少’转向‘我们如何识别长期的生产率赢家’。
I would actually say that's the key pivot that's happened in our conversations with clients over the last few months, which is as this anxiety has built up about the AI infrastructure trade, and as for the first time we've seen some public companies discreetly quantify the earnings boost of AI, the narrative has shifted from how much will the semiconductors and other infrastructure companies make next year to how can we identify long term productivity winners.
在估值方面，什么会让你感到担忧？
What would make you nervous when it comes to valuations in general?
这可能类似于对任何带有‘AI’字样的东西进行无差别投资。
This may be like indiscriminate investment in anything that has the word AI in it.
那确实会让我担忧。
That would do it.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，如果从历史角度看，很难量化投机行为或过度乐观情绪，但我们还是尝试了。
I think if you look historically, you know, it's hard to quantify speculative activity or overexuberance, but we try.
因此，几个月前，我们实际上创建了一个名为投机活动指标的工具。
And so a few months ago, we actually built something we call a speculative activity trade indicator.
它会观察无盈利股票的交易量，以及估值倍数异常高的股票的交易量。
It looks at trading volumes, for example, in stocks with no profits, trading volumes in stocks with extraordinarily high valuation multiples.
正如你所预期的，今年这一指标有所上升。
As you might expect, that has risen this year.
但让我感到安心的是，它仍远低于25年前以及2021年经历时的水平。
But it is comforting to me that is still well below levels that we saw twenty five years ago and even five years ago in the 2021 experience.
是的，有个问题。
Yeah, there's a question.
这甚至算不上一个2026年的问题。
It's not even really a 2026 question.
但你知道，我们一直喜欢和你交谈的原因之一，不仅仅是你的预测等内容，我认为你是一位深谙宏观思想、扎根于学术理念的人。
But you know, one of the reasons we've always loved talking to you is beyond just the forecast, etcetera, I consider you to be a deep macro thinker with rooted in academic ideas.
经济学家似乎对这样一个观点相当严格：是的，新技术可能会让一些人失业，这当然令人痛苦，但从整体上看，技术并不会摧毁工作机会。
Economists seem fairly strict on the idea that yes, new technologies can put some people out of work and that's obviously painful, but in the aggregate tech doesn't destroy jobs.
有什么理由认为人工智能会有所不同吗？
Is there any reason to think that AI would be any different?
我的意思是，这正是让人们感到害怕的地方。
I mean, this is what scares people.
对吧？
Right?
担心会有十个人掌握所有财富，而我们其他人只能靠全民基本收入生活。
That there's gonna be 10 people who have all the money and the rest of us are gonna be living on universal basic income.
人工智能在某个时候很可能成为一个不错的播客主持人。
AI may very well be a good podcast host at some time.
也许播客会就此消失。
Like and maybe podcast will go away.
但从宏观角度看，有没有理由认为这次科技与劳动力的关系会有所不同？
But, like, in the broad thinking, is there any reason to think that somehow this time it's different with the relationship between tech and labor?
我的意思是，从长期结果的角度来看，这并不支持这种观点。
I mean, certainly doesn't support it from the perspective of the long term outcomes.
如果你观察十年、二十年的时间间隔，你无法发现更高的生产率增长——即使这种生产率增长在行业层面导致了人员失业——与总体失业率之间存在不利关系。
If you look at kind of intervals of ten, twenty years, you cannot find an adverse relationship between more productivity growth, even if it's more labor productivity growth that at the industry level puts people out of work and aggregate unemployment.
你所能发现的是摩擦性失业的增加。
What you can find is increases in frictional unemployment.
当你看到生产率加速时，新的工作岗位需要一段时间才能在其他行业出现，以弥补受影响行业中失去的工作岗位。
When you see productivity acceleration, it takes a while for the new jobs to be created in other industries to compensate for the jobs that are being lost in the affected industries.
我们确实在预测中考虑了部分这种因素。
And we do build in some of that into our forecasts.
然后这真正变成了一个关于采用速度有多快的问题。
And then it really becomes a question of how quickly the adoption really occurs.
如果这个过程持续十年左右，当你纵观整个经济时，人们可能觉得这太慢了，但我其实并不认为认为这种变革需要时间在经济中逐步扩散——不仅限于最具创新性的公司，而是所有公司——是个疯狂的想法。
If it happens over, say, a decade, if you look at the entire economy and, you know, people think that's way too slow, but I actually don't think it's a crazy idea to think that this takes a while to diffuse through the economy, not just the most innovative companies, but all companies.
在所有层面，我认为这都需要数年时间。
And at all levels, I do think it's gonna take a number of years.
这可能会给经济留出时间来适应，并在其他领域创造就业机会。
That would probably give the economy time to adapt and create jobs in other areas.
但如果速度更快，我会更担心短期摩擦性失业的增加。
But if it's much faster, then I'd be more worried about short term increases in frictional unemployment.
因此，即使我认为我的基本观点是乐观的——我们能够像过去美国和世界经济应对技术进步一样应对这种结构性变化——我们仍需保持开放的心态。
So it's important to keep an open mind even though I would say my underlying view is on the optimistic side that we will be able to cope with this structural change the way that The US and world economy has coped with technological advancement in the past.
你能谈谈消费者支出最近的情况吗？
Can you talk a little bit about what's been going on with consumer spending?
因为失业率正在略微缓解，但我们还没有看到消费者支出出现明显下滑。
Because unemployment, you know, getting a little bit softer, but we haven't really seen a significant hit to consumer spending.
然而，如果你看情绪调查，每个人目前都很沮丧，但他们仍在继续购物。
And yet, if you look at the sentiment surveys, everyone is miserable at the moment, but they keep buying stuff.
这背后到底发生了什么？
What is going on there?
我认为情绪调查在预测经济活动方面的有效性越来越低。
I think the sentiment surveys have been getting less and less useful for predicting activity.
这一点在消费者情绪调查中尤为明显，尤其是密歇根大学的调查结果与我们实际观察到的情况偏差很大。
And that's true for the consumer sentiment surveys and the University of Michigan in particular has been quite far out of line with what we've seen.
但这一现象实际上更为普遍。
But it's actually true more broadly.
如果你回溯十年、二十年前，ISM数据对市场的重要性与如今相比，简直不可同日而语。
If you think back to ten years ago, twenty years ago, just the importance of the ISM print for markets and the importance now, it's just nowhere close.
我们仍然会关注商业服务和消费者服务数据，因为它们包含有趣的细节且更新及时，但它们的预测效力已远不如从前，或至少不再被人们如此信赖。
We still look at the business service and the consumer service because they have interesting detail, they're very up to date, but they just don't work as well as they used to or certainly were believed to.
因此，我更倾向于关注硬数据。
So, I would really focus more on the hard data.
硬数据显示，消费者状况尚可。
The hard data would say that the consumer is doing okay.
消费者支出当然谈不上非常强劲。
Consumer spending is certainly not super rapid.
也许明年我们会达到2%左右。
Maybe we'll get to 2% or so next year.
但我认为实际意义上的消费者支出可能会落后于整体经济。
But I think consumer spending in real terms is likely to lag the overall economy.
显然，高端与低端之间存在差异，不仅体现在水平上，也体现在增长率上。
There are obviously differences between the top end, I mean the levels obviously, but also the growth rates towards the top end versus the bottom end.
这在实时评估时有点困难，因为官方的消费者支出数据在最新的高频数据中并未详细细分。
That's a little hard to really assess in real time because the official consumer spending numbers are not broken down at a very high frequency in the very up to date numbers.
但目前的情况是复杂的，不过根据我们对经济的预测，我预计消费者支出会保持稳定。
But it is a mixed picture out there, but I would expect under our forecast for the economy, I would expect the consumer to hang in there.
对于明年，你认为最重要的经济指标会是什么？
What would be your Desert Island economic indicator for next year?
你被困在一个孤岛上。
You're stuck on an island.
你只能关注一个指标来判断经济的走向。
You can only look at one thing to gauge the direction of the economy.
很难超越失业率。
Hard to beat the unemployment rate.
好的。
Okay.
所以关于失业率，我们应该谈谈美联储。
So on the unemployment rate, we should talk about the Fed.
对吧？
Right?
因为明年这个时候，我们将有一位新的美联储主席，而且已经有一年的表现了。
Because this time next year, we're gonna have a new Fed chair and almost, like, a year of performance already.
他什么时候正式上任？
When does he actually come in?
像是四月左右？
Like, April or something?
五月。
May.
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五月。
May.
好的。
Okay.
嗯，他已经在这个职位上取得了相当多的业绩。
Well, a significant amount of performance in the role already.
新任美联储主席对你的经济预测有多大影响？
How much of a change is a new Fed chair when it comes to your economic forecast?
我的意思是，可能影响不大。
I mean, it's probably not a lot.
我们不太可能因为一次人事任命就改变预测，而且我也不知道会是谁。
We're, you know, very unlikely to make a forecast change on the back of an appointment and I don't know who it's going to be.
这是一个委员会，所以系统的连续性比人们在讨论不同潜在候选人时所认为的要强。
It's a committee, so there is more continuity in the system than I think people sometimes believe when they talk about the different potential candidates.
因此，在未来六到十八个月的时间范围内，我不太可能看到政策结果出现重大变化。
So, at least in the, say, six, twelve, eighteen month forward horizon, I wouldn't really expect a major change in terms of the policy outcomes.
显然，时间越长远，委员会成员更替的空间就越大。
Obviously, the further out you go, the more room there is for people to turn over on the committee.
董事会也是如此。
That's true on the board of governors.
联邦储备银行行长们也是如此，这可能会产生更大的影响。
It's true among the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, and that could have more of an impact.
但在短期内，我不认为新任主席会导致结果出现巨大差异。
But in the in the near term, I would not expect a massively different outcome because there's a new chair.
本，关于这一点，跟我们谈谈市盈率吧。
Ben, on this note, talk to us about multiples.
你之前谈到了盈利的重要性，以及利润率扩张的频繁性。
And obviously, you talked about the importance of earnings, and then how frequently margin expansion is important.
但还有市盈率这个问题。
But then there's also the multiples question.
就目前而言，你是如何看待市盈率的？
Where are we now in terms of how you're thinking about multiples?
那么，当你思考未来走向时，这种走向在多大程度上隐含地与政策路径的预期相关？
Then when you think where are we going and how much is that going to be tied sort of implicitly to perceptions of policy trajectory?
估值倍数很高。
Multiple's high.
这一点毋庸置疑。
There's there's no debating that.
当然，与历史相比，它确实很高。
Certainly, you're comparing with history, it's high.
在过去的几十年里，我们只在后疫情时期的重启阶段，以及上世纪九十年代末的互联网泡沫时期，短暂地见过更高的倍数。
In the last few decades, we've really only seen a higher multiple very briefly during the post COVID period, the reopening, and, of course, in the late nineteen nineties, .com.
后疫情时期是因为没人能在两个季度内赚到钱。
In that the post COVID is because no one would made any money for, two quarters.
嗯，我
Well, I
我认为这是个关键点，没错。
think that's a key point Yeah.
推动市盈率上升的因素之一，是对盈利加速或改善的预期。
Which is one of the things that drives the multiple higher is expectations of accelerating or improving earnings.
没错。
Yeah.
从这个角度来看，如果我听詹对健康且正在改善的经济的预测，那么市盈率如此之高对我来说并不奇怪。
And from that perspective, if I listen to Jan's forecast for a healthy economy that's improving, it's not necessarily so strange to me that the multiple is pretty elevated.
另一点我想指出的是，如果我们一年前坐在这里，或者干脆说，如果我们早在1999年初坐在这里——那时候没多少播客，但我们不妨发挥想象力——当时的市盈率和今天完全一样。
The other thing I'd point out is if we sat here a year ago, or frankly, if we sat here at the beginning of 1999, weren't many podcasts back then, but we'll use our imagination, the multiple was exactly where it is today.
但这并没有告诉你短期内市场该如何操作。
And that didn't really tell you anything about what to do with the market over the short term.
因此，我从物理学的角度将估值视为一种势能的衡量。
So I view valuations through a physics lens as a measure of potential energy.
它们能告诉你，当有催化剂出现时，市场可能有多大波动，但它们本身并不是催化剂。
They tell you a lot about how much the market can move if there's a catalyst, but they're not the catalyst themselves.
你可以随时通过彭博新闻现在获取新闻。
You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.
我是艾米·莫里斯。
I'm Amy Morris.
我是凯伦·莫斯科，今天来向您介绍我们全新按需新闻报道，直接推送至您的播客订阅中。
And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.
Bloomberg News Now 是一份五分钟的音频简报，涵盖当日最重要的新闻。
Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.
节目全天多次更新，提供最新信息和数据，助您及时掌握动态。
Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.
是的。
Yes.
其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重复播放其广播新闻。
There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.
我们并非如此。
That's not what we do.
我们制作的是仅在 Bloomberg News Now 上才能收听的定制化节目。
We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News Now.
我们不需要一小时来发布突发新闻。
And we don't an hour to publish breaking news.
当新闻发生时，我们会在几分钟内将一期节目发布到您的播客订阅中，确保您始终获取最新动态和进展。
When news breaks, we'll have an episode up on your podcast feed within minutes, so you're always getting the latest stories and developments.
获取来自彭博社全球3000名记者和分析师的报道与背景分析。
Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts were all over the world.
在Apple、Spotify或您收听播客的任何平台收听最新的彭博新闻。
Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
我知道你之前提到，你们并没有不加区分地投资于人工智能生产力这一主题。
I know you talked earlier about how you're not seeing people invest in the AI productivity story indiscriminately.
但当谈到这项新技术带来的预期生产力提升时，你们所说的切实证据是什么？究竟是真实发生，还是人们在空谈？
But when it comes to an expected productivity boost from this new technology, what concrete evidence are you saying that this is actually happening versus people talking their books?
大约60%的标普公司每季度在财报电话会议中都会提到人工智能。
Well, about 60% of S and P companies say AI every quarter on their earnings.
确实如此。
True.
你可能一只手就能数出有多少家公司真正对其进行了量化。
And you can probably count on one hand how many are actually quantifying it.
所以我不认为你现在能在数据中真正看到它的影响。
So I don't think you should expect to really see it in the numbers today.
事实上，我们首次在明年的标普500收益预测中建模了人工智能带来的生产力提升。
Actually, for the first time, we are modeling an AI productivity boost in our S and P 500 earnings forecast for next year.
而这一提升的幅度不到百分之零点五。
And the magnitude of that boost is under half a percent.
因此，我们仍然认为即使在明年，其影响也会非常小。
So we still think even next year it'll be quite small.
但重要的是，它正在随着时间推移而增长。
But the important thing is it is growing over time.
但这是指人工智能的使用者，而不是投资。
But that's the users of AI rather than the the investment.
没错。
Correct.
当你在资本支出上花费数千亿美元时，过去几年AI带来的收益在这些美元层面显然已经非常显著。
When you're spending hundreds of billions of dollars in CapEx, the AI boost in terms of those dollars has clearly been large for the last couple of years.
所以，你是在谈论标普500指数中股票的集中度，非常头重脚轻。
So, you're talking about the concentration of equities within the S and P 500, very top heavy.
那么，这与标普500指数中收益的集中度相比如何？
How does that compare with the concentration of earnings within the S and P 500?
这是一个关键点，我认为常常被低估：五年前，市场上排名前十的股票占了市值的三分之一。
That is the key point that is, I think, often underappreciated, which is five years ago, the top 10 stocks in the market accounted for a third of market cap.
当时这创下了纪录，但回头一看，似乎也没那么糟糕。
This was a record at the time, although we look back and think wasn't so bad.
而如今，它们占了三分之一的收益。
And fast forward now, they are a third of earnings.
因此，一种理解方式是，当时市场正确地展望未来，认为收益将增长。
So one way to conceptualize this is the market was correctly looking forward back then and saying earnings are going to grow.
所以，如今如果排名前十的公司占市值的40%和收益的三分之一，问题就在于，未来几年它们是否能继续在收益上超越市场？
And so today, if the top 10 companies are 40% of market cap and a third of earnings, the question is, will they continue to outperform on an earnings basis over the next few years?
嗯，考虑到当前的盈利增长速率，答案很可能是否定的，它们将继续跑赢市场，尽管根据我们的预测，这一差距会略有缩小。
Well, given the current run rate of earnings growth, it looks very likely that the answer will be yes, they'll outperform, although on our forecasts, that gap will shrink a little bit.
然后，市场可能会看得更远一些。
And then markets might look forward further than that.
而这正是其中一些公司最近面临问题的部分原因。
And that I mean, that's been part of the issue for some of them more recently.
而这正是造成估值问题的方式。
And that's how you create valuation problems.
特蕾西，当我听到大型科技公司仅占标普500指数约三分之一的盈利时，我的想法是，还有70%的公司盈利等待它们去吸纳。
Tracy, when I hear that big tech companies only have about a third of the earnings of the S and P 500, my thought is, well, that's 70% of all corporate earnings that they have yet to swallow.
想想所有这些非科技公司所积累的盈利。
Think of all of these earnings that are accruing to non tech companies.
所有这些都将成为亚马逊和谷歌的收入，在
All of that is going to be Amazon and Alphabet's income in the
未来仍存在上行空间。
There's future one still upside.
还有70%。
There's still 70%.
大部分利润仍然不是由科技公司赚取的。
There's still the majority of money is not being made by tech companies.
等等。
Okay, wait.
但我得问一下。
I got to ask though.
是的。
Yes.
近年来，科技公司似乎非常强势。
Tech companies have seemed, you know, very dominant in recent years.
但要让你对明年的前景感到些许担忧，需要什么条件呢？
But what would it take to make you a little bit nervous about the outlook for next year?
整个市场的前景。
The broad market outlook.
比如，你需要看到什么迹象才会意识到：等等，我们是不是有点过于乐观了？也许我的预期比实际更积极？
Like, what would you need to see to think like, oh, wait a second, we're kind of getting ahead of ourselves, I think maybe my target is a little more optimistic than I had expected?
首先，我认为投资者应该始终保持一点警惕。
First, I think an investor should always be a little nervous.
这反映了股权风险溢价，也就是市场如何随着时间推移产生回报，或者至少是市场产生回报的部分方式。
That's a reflection of equity risk premium, which is how the market generates return over time, or at least part of how the market generates return over time.
首先，你知道，简提到他的‘荒岛指标’是失业率。
Well, first, you know, Jan mentioned his Desert Island indicator being the unemployment rate.
对我来说，每个星期四早上，我都会兴奋地等待公布失业救济申领数据。
For me, every Thursday morning, I wake up excited to see jobless claims.
这一点我已多次说过。
This is I've said it many times.
说到我的‘荒岛指标’，我是个关注申领数据的人。
I'm a claims guy when it comes to my Desert Island.
兄弟们，我们想到一块儿去了。
We're on the same page bros.
所以，如果连续几个星期四，我们开始看到失业救济申请人数上升，我会变得更加担忧。
So, you know, if a few Thursdays in a row, we start to see claims rise, I'll become a lot more nervous.
如果某天简走过走廊说，我们认为美联储将在下次会议上加息，我也会为此感到紧张。
If Jan walks down the hall one day and says, you know, we think the Fed's gonna hike at the next meeting, I'll be nervous about that too.
过去几乎所有股市牛市的顶部，一个一贯的模式都是美联储收紧政策，而不是像我们现在这样放松政策。
One consistent pattern at the top of almost every equity bull market in the past has been tightening Fed policy instead of easing policy that we have today.
然后，当然，第三点是，这可能是一个很小甚至有点可笑的例子。
And then, of course, the third is, you know, this is a very small and maybe silly example.
但几年前，我记得当GLP-1类药物推出时，曾有一个短暂的窗口期，投资者基于燃油成本将下降的理由讨论买入航空股。
But a couple of years ago, I remember when the GLP-one drugs were being rolled out, there was a very brief window where investors were talking about buying the airline stocks on the basis that fuel costs would be lower.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Yeah.
当这种叙事开始在我的对话中出现时，那就是我认为股价会领先于收益上涨的时刻，而正如我所说，这种情况其实并没有发生过。
When this narrative, this type of narrative starts to emerge in my conversations, that's the kind of time where I think you will be seeing prices run ahead of earnings, which, as I mentioned, has really not been the case.
那时我会更加紧张。
I'll be a lot more nervous then.
这很有趣。
That's interesting.
所以当你刚开始看到投资者用各种不靠谱的理由来为投资辩解时，
So when you just start to see investors start to justify things on various bank shots, guess
这个叙事。
the narrative.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像一种行为信号，表明人们可能有点过于乐观了。
And that's that's just sort of like it's like a behavioral sign that maybe people are starting to get over their skis a bit.
我认为，这可能是近年来最不热情、却常被描述为泡沫的市场。
I think this has been one of the least enthusiastic markets that is often described as a bubble in recent history.
简，房地产怎么了？
Jan, what happened to housing?
当我说这一点时，我的意思是，我觉得我们现在完全可以进行一整场关于经济的对话，却完全不提住房市场的表现有多平庸——无论我们讨论的是房价、开工量，还是其他任何住房指标，情况都不太好。
And when I say that, I mean, I feel that we could go a whole conversation talking about the economy these days without talking about how mediocre the housing market is doing, whether we're talking about prices, whether we're talking about starts, basically every measure of housing, not very good.
然而，在以往关于经济的讨论中，人们常说住房周期就是商业周期。
Yet by and large in conversations about the economy, there used to be the housing cycle is the business cycle.
即使抛开2008年和2009年的危机不谈，住房一直与经济紧密相连，长期以来都显得非常强劲。
Even setting aside the crisis of 2008, 2009, housing is linked to the economy, always, or for a long time, felt very robust.
这种情况改变了吗？
Has that changed?
令人惊讶的是，如果我回溯到2008年前后以及之后的几年，我们当时在住房及其外溢效应、住房权益提取、以及银行资产负债表上因抵押信贷敞口造成的杠杆损失方面，投入了大约30%、40%甚至50%的注意力，而如今这些话题在讨论中却变得微不足道。
It's amazing how if I look back to, well, certainly run up to 'eight and the couple years after, how we rolled, I don't know, 30%, 40%, 50% of what we were putting out on housing and the spillovers from housing and mortgage equity withdrawal and leveraged losses because of mortgage credit exposures on bank balance sheets and how it is now such a small part of the discussion.
因为在我看来，这一直是一场拉锯战：一方面，空置率低，为住房活动和房价提供了支撑性的供给环境；
Because it's been kind of a tug of war I think between on the one hand low vacancy rates and therefore a supportive supply picture for housing activity and house prices.
另一方面，房价已经很高，可负担性差，抵押贷款利率仍然相对较高。
And at the same time already high price levels, bad affordability, still reasonably high mortgage rates.
因此，市场整体上几乎没有明显变化。
And it just hasn't really moved very much.
当然，我们也看到了人口结构变化导致住房周转率降低，但这并不是我们对2026年展望的主要因素。
Now of course, we've also seen demographic changes that just result in less housing turnover, but it is not a major feature of our outlook for 2026.
从现在起，住房市场将大致保持横盘走势。
We have housing go more or less sideways from here.
房价涨幅将保持微弱的正增长。
Low positive numbers for price appreciation.
我认为真正的焦点在其他地方，更多体现在投资领域，以及我们一直讨论的诸多技术问题上。
And I think the action is really elsewhere, more on the investment side and obviously a lot of the technology issues that we've been discussing.
如果我们不谈谈世界第二大经济体——中国，那就失职了。
We would be remiss if we didn't talk about the world's second biggest economy, which is China.
因此，在您的展望中，您认为中国经济将表现良好。
So in your outlook, you say you expect China to hold up well.
我想，这对许多关注全球贸易格局的人来说可能会感到意外，因为目前看来，似乎所有人都以各种方式针对中国。
And I think this would be surprising to a lot of people who look out at, I guess, the global trading sphere, and it looks like everyone is arrayed against China in various ways.
美国已经实施了关税。
The US has imposed tariffs.
欧洲似乎想采取行动，可能形成一个针对中国的统一阵营。
Europe seems to wanna do something and possibly, you know, form a coherent bloc, I guess, against China.
为什么我们还没有看到中国增长受到更大冲击？
Why haven't we seen more of a growth hit to China?
尽管美国有时实施了惩罚性的关税，中国的制造业和出口仍然表现得异常强劲。
The manufacturing sector and Chinese exports have just held up incredibly well despite a, at times punitive level of tariffs from The US side.
对美国的出口同比下降了百分之二十五到三十。
Exports to The US came down substantially 20 five-thirty percent on a year on year basis.
但对其他地区的出口表现得非常稳健。
But exports to other places have held up very well.
总体出口仍增长了百分之五到十。
Overall exports are still up five-ten percent.
数据虽有些波动，但增长势头非常健康。
They're a little bit noisy but very healthy growth rates.
我们的预期是，这种情况将继续下去，主要因为中国在以越来越低的价格生产出越来越优质的产品方面不断进步。
And our expectation is that that's going to continue mainly because China keeps getting better and better at producing better and better goods at cheaper and cheaper prices.
对于其他经济体来说，想要真正遏制这一点将非常困难。
And it's going to be pretty difficult to really stem that for other economies.
而且他们还控制着稀土的供应。
And they also control the supply of rare earths.
他们控制了约70%的采矿和90%的精炼。
They control about 70% of the mining, 90% of the refining.
这是一种非常有效的手段，可以阻止贸易行动和关税。
That's a pretty good way to deter trade action and tariffs.
我认为我们看到了，但与之相关的谈判可能对其他试图对中国征收关税的经济体产生影响。
And I think we saw that the But negotiations with the that could be relevant for other economies that try to impose tariffs on China.
所以，我认为制造业部门仍将保持强劲。
So, I think the goods producing sector is still gonna be strong.
另一方面，国内经济非常疲软。
Now, the flip side is that the domestic economy is very weak.
这是一个房地产故事更为关键的国家。
That's a country where the housing story is much more central.
尽管住房开工和销售已经下降了60%到80%，但仍在继续下滑。
Housing starts and sales are still going down even though they're already down 60 to 80%.
但降幅依然十分陡峭。
But they're still going down steeply.
房价仍在急剧下跌。
Prices are still falling steeply.
我们的中国团队估算，若考虑房地产对GDP增长的直接和间接影响。
Our China team estimates that if you take the direct and indirect effects of property on GDP growth.
2025年它拉低了约两个百分点。
It subtracted about two percentage points in 2025.
尽管最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，但明年仍会带来1.5个百分点的拖累。
And while the worst is probably behind us, they still have a 1.5 percentage point drag next year.
因此，在这种环境下，我们认为中国经济仍能保持稳健。
So in that sort of environment, you know, we think China will hold up okay.
长期来看增长会放缓，但可能仍更接近5%而非4%。
You know, slower growth over time, but probably still closer to 5% than to 4%.
本，回到美国股市，我开玩笑说，还有70%的利润尚未被大型科技公司捕获。
Ben, going back to US stocks, I sort of joked that there's 70% of earnings out there that have yet to be captured by big tech companies.
但我其实并不觉得这是个玩笑，因为这确实似乎是当前的趋势。
But I actually kind of don't really think that's a joke in the sense that that does seem to be the trend.
有一小部分公司正在积累大量价值。
There are a handful of companies that are accruing a lot of value.
当你想到大型科技公司实现的利润增长时，你举了例子，说明五年前市场正确地预测它们将占到利润的30%。
When you think about the earnings growth that the big tech companies have, the realized earnings growth, and you gave the example about how the market was correct five years ago that they would come to represent 30% of earnings.
历史上有没有哪个时期，全球最大的公司能年复一年地如此高速增长？
Is there any historical precedent for the largest companies in the world to be growing like this year after year?
因为我过去认为，成熟公司不会像小公司那样快速增长。
Because I used to think mature companies don't grow like small companies do.
从市场历史的角度来看，这是否是一种前所未有的现象？
Is this a novel phenomenon when you think about the history of markets?
市场有趣的一部分就在于它们总是在不断变化。
Part of what's fun about markets is they're always changing.
这似乎是其中一个例子。
This seems to be one of those examples.
你知道，我们去年做了一项研究。
You know, we did a study last year.
我们研究了美国过去一百年的市场集中度。
We looked at a hundred years of market concentration in The US.
哦。
Oh.
但在至少过去的百年里，我们没发现任何与今天相似的情况。
And at least over the last century, we didn't find anything that quite matches up to today.
哇。
Wow.
你认为什么会真正终结这种市场主导地位？
What do you think would actually, like, put an end to that market dominance?
我想是更强的反垄断法，还是别的什么？
I guess stronger antitrust laws or or what?
是的。
Yeah.
继续关注收益。
Keep coming back to earnings.
收益主导地位结束的一种方式，当然是监管政策。
And one way that earnings dominance could end, of course, is regulatory policy.
我认为，投资者最关心的问题是，由人工智能技术带来的这场革命性转变，是否会改变收益最终归属的地点。
I think the the top of mind question for investors is whether this revolutionary shift resulting from AI technology is going to change where the earnings end up accruing.
但我认为，几乎可以肯定的是，当我们某一天回望过去时，如果它们在市值上的主导地位不再那么显著，那将是因为它们的收益也不再那么主导了。
But I think almost certainly, when one day we look back, if one day we look back, and they were no longer as dominant from a from a market cap perspective, it's going to be because their earnings aren't as dominant either.
你知道，我们一开始聊的是公布的CPI数据，我很想知道，今年在追踪某些数据和应对一些你作为经济学家可能从未遇到过的问题时，比如对某个太平洋小岛征收关税，有多不寻常。
You know, we started this conversation talking about the CPI number that came out, and I would be curious to hear just how unusual this year has been in terms of tracking some of the data and dealing with, you know, things that you probably haven't had to deal with as an economist before, like tariffs on, you know, some tiny Pacific island or something like that.
我赞同本刚才说的话。
I would echo what Ben just said.
这正是市场和经济预测有趣的地方——总会有新情况出现。
This is what makes markets and economic forecasting fun, that there's always something new.
当然，我们在解放日前后看到的关税增幅，即使称不上史无前例，也至少是几十年来未曾见过的。
And, of course, the extent of the tariff increases that we saw on and around Liberation Day is, if not unprecedented, then at least we haven't seen it in many, many decades.
因此，这带来了一组新的挑战，即要弄清楚这些措施会产生怎样的影响。
So, that's a new set of challenges in terms of figuring out what the impacts are going to be.
这并不像过去二十年中某些时候那样极端，当然也远不及新冠疫情时期。
It's not as extreme as what we've seen at times in the prior twenty years or so, certainly compared with COVID.
我的意思是，那时你几乎不得不抛开大部分政府数据，转而寻找其他指标，比如手机定位数据，来判断当时发生了什么——即便不是当天，至少也是那一周的情况。
I mean, that's where you could effectively throw out a lot of the government data and have to look for other indicators like cell phone locations to figure out what was going on that, if not that day, then at least that week.
而不是提前一个月。
And, you know, not a month a month earlier.
所以，这一直是个挑战。
So, that's been a challenge.
我认为政府停摆比以往的停摆更具挑战性。
The government shutdown, I would say, has been more challenging than past shutdowns.
我们实际上将面临经济数据中的空白，这些空白可能永远都无法填补。
We'll actually have holes in the economic data that will probably be there forever.
永远。
Forever.
你看看一些劳动力市场数据，自1948年以来，美国失业率一直保持着每月的连续数据，唯独2025年10月除外。
And you look at some of the labor market numbers, we've had a consistent series for The US unemployment rate on a monthly basis since 1948 except for October 2025.
这看起来会非常奇怪。
And that's going to look pretty weird.
这简直太疯狂了。
That's kind of crazy.
你对2026年美联储政策的前景怎么看？
What is your outlook for 2026 in terms of Fed policy?
在哪里
Where do
你觉得这个降息周期会走向何方？会降多深？
you see this rate cut cycle going and how deep?
我们仍然维持着过去六个月的预测：在2025年实施了75个基点的预防性降息后，2026年还将再降两次，使利率降至我们估计的中性水平，即3%至3.25%。
We still have forecasts that we've had for the last six months, which is after the 75 basis points of insurance cuts in 2025, two more in 2026 that bring you down to what we think is roughly the neutral estimate three to 3.25%.
我们目前将这两次降息安排在三月和六月。
We're penciling that in for March and June at the moment.
这个预测没有改变。
Haven't changed that.
我认为这其中存在相当大的不确定性。
I would say there's a pretty sizable amount of uncertainty around that.
如果GDP增长如我们预期般强劲，并进一步提振劳动力市场，他们可能会推迟降息，或许将行动推迟至下半年。
It's certainly possible that if GDP growth does as well as we think and that actually gives a bit more of a lift to the labor market that they would wait longer and push that perhaps into the second half.
但我也非常关注1月9日即将公布的下一份就业报告，因为如果报告显示失业率再次上升，我认为在1月的会议上不降息会很难。
But I'm also pretty focused on January 9 when we get the next employment report because if that shows another increase in the unemployment rate then I think it might be hard not to cut at the January meeting.
我们目前的预测中并未包含这种情况，但我认为这是一个非常现实的可能性。
We don't have that in the forecast at the moment, but I think it's a very real possibility.
等我们假期结束后，这将是值得关注的事情。
Something to look forward to after we come back from the holidays.
目前，我认为根据我的分析，一月降息的概率不到20%，虽然我知道你并不预期会降息，但听起来似乎存在某种情况，使得这一概率可能突然上升。
Currently, I think according to work, it's just a less than 20% chance of a cut in January, but it sound and I know you don't expect one, but I guess it sounds like there's a condition in which that could jump.
是的。
Yes.
我觉得是的。
I think so.
嗯。
Yeah.
本，非常感谢你参加《奇思妙想》节目。
And and Ben, thank you so much for coming on Odd Thoughts.
我想明年还会请你回来。
And, I guess we'll have you back on next year.
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Yeah.
把它变成一个年度传统吧。
Make it an annual tradition.
嗯。
Yeah.
把你的预测和现实对比一下。
Check your forecast against reality.
谢谢。
So thanks.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
太棒了。
That was fantastic.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
乔，这总是很有趣。
Joe, that's always fun.
我喜欢这样。
I love that.
我认为关于我们是否处于泡沫中的观点确实很重要。
I do think the point about, you know, whether or not we're in a bubble.
唯一让我有些警惕的是，现在每个人似乎都在担心这个问题，人们正在讨论潜在的下行风险。
The one thing that, like, does give me some caution is this idea that, like, actually, everyone's kind of worried about it at the moment, and people are talking about the downs potential downsides.
但话说回来，我也回想起互联网泡沫、-dotcom泡沫时期。
But that said, I also think back to the Internet bubble, the .com bubble.
那时，人们对此非常担忧。
And, I mean, people were so worried about it.
他们甚至写了关于-dotcom泡沫的书。
They were writing books about a .com bubble.
对吧？
Right?
当时就是这样。
At the time.
当时就是这样。
At the time.
是的。
Yeah.
在它真正破裂之前。
Before it actually burst.
所以我不认为，我们以前就经历过泡沫，当时人们也很担心，但它们仍然是泡沫。
So I don't you know, we've had bubbles before where people have been worried, and they're still bubbles.
完全正确。
Totally.
仅仅观察它们，并不能消除泡沫的存在。
Merely observing them does not obviate the existence of one.
没错。
That's right.
有几点。
A couple of things.
我很喜欢简对这种几乎成为共识的观念提出的反驳，即今年AI支出是推动GDP增长的主要动力。
I love that Jan pushed back on this very almost consensus meme that AI expenditure has been a huge driver of GDP expansion this year.
当你谈到这一点时，我觉得听他如此强烈地反驳这一点很有趣，毕竟投入进去的很大一部分最终都通过进口流出了。
When you talk about, I think it's interesting to hear him push back so hard on that given how much of what gets put into the ground comes out on the other side via imports.
另外，我喜欢本的观点，不管你怎么说这些大型科技公司。
I also Look, I love Ben's point about, say whatever you will about the big tech companies.
它们每年都实现巨额盈利，过去五年里这种极度集中的现象非常有趣，而它们最终追上了盈利水平，结果证明市场再次是对的。
They deliver monster earnings every It's very interesting to hear how over the last five years, look at this crazy concentration and then they catch up there to earnings and it turns out the market was right again.
没错。
Right.
而且正如他所指出的，一些非科技公司也在实现盈利增长。
And it's also true, as he pointed out, that some non tech companies are seeing earnings growth too.
所以，现在的市场并没有像仅仅两周前那样被大型科技公司主导。
So it's not even a market that's as dominated by big tech as it was just like two weeks ago.
我肯定自己也曾多次助长过‘这只是由科技驱动’这种说法。
I'm sure that I have contributed various times to the sort of meme that it's just a tech driven.
你知道，我们就是这样说的。
You know, you're like, we say that.
对吧？
Right?
2025年这场由科技驱动的上涨。
This tech driven rally in 2025.
显然，今年纳斯达克的表现优于标普500，所以我们知道科技股确实表现更佳。
And obviously, look, the Nasdaq has outperformed the S and P 500 this year, so we know that, like, yes, tech has outperformed.
但你知道，金融板块的表现也非常出色。
But you know financials have done very well.
我之前没意识到，过去三年标普493指数的盈利增长一直如此强劲。
I hadn't appreciated how consistently strong the earnings growth of the S and P four ninety three had been over the last three years.
我也认为，生产力提升使得失业率维持在4.5%左右，这个观点很有趣。
I also think this idea of productivity, keeping unemployment stuck at, like, 4.5% is an interesting one.
人们通常认为更高的生产力是好事，没错。
People, I think, tend to think of higher productivity as a good thing Yeah.
这显而易见。
For obvious reasons.
但你知道，目前人们对就业和经济安全有着很多政治上的担忧。
But, you know, there's so much political nervousness at the moment about jobs and economic security.
如果我们迎来一次巨大的生产力提升，却导致人们没有那么多好工作，那就会很有趣。
If we have a massive productivity boost that ends with people not having as many good jobs Yeah.
那会很有趣。
That'll be interesting.
我的意思是，人工智能最终对劳动力市场意味着什么，这仍然是一个巨大的问号。
I mean, I still think it's a huge question mark, obviously, like, what AI ultimately means for the labor market.
但这种观点认为，它可能会增加摩擦性失业。
But this idea that it could raise the frictional unemployment.
不一定改变就业人数的长期趋势，而是延长人们找到工作的所需时间，以及其他各种因素，因为这影响范围太广了。
Not necessarily sustained change in the number of people who have jobs, but the time it takes to find a job and various other things because it's just so economy wide.
也许这是一种有用的思考方式，至少在短期和中期来看是如此。
Maybe that's a useful I think that's a useful way to think about the question, at least in the short and medium term.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
我们就到这里吧？
Shall we leave it there?
我们就到这里吧。
Let's leave it there.
这是《All Thoughts Podcast》的又一期节目。
This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.
我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。
I'm Tracey Allaway.
你可以关注我，用户名是Tracey Allaway。
You can follow me at Tracey Allaway.
我是吉尔·韦辛瑟尔。
And I'm Jill Weisenthal.
你可以关注我，用户名是The Stalwart。
You can follow me at The Stalwart.
关注我们的制作人：Carmen Rodriguez（Carmen Armit）、Dashiell Bennett（Dashbot）和Kale Brooks（Kale Brooks）。
Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armit, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks.
如需获取更多奇闻趣事内容，请访问 bloomberg.com/oddlots，订阅每日简报并收听所有往期节目。
For more Odd content, go to bloomberg.com/oddlots for the daily newsletter and all of our episodes.
你还可以在我们的 Discord 频道 discord.gg/oddlots 中 24/7 全天候讨论这些话题。
And you can chat about all of these topics twenty four seven in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.
如果你喜欢《OddLots》节目，并希望明年邀请 Jan 和 Ben 回来回顾他们对 2026 年的预测，请在您最喜欢的播客平台为我们留下正面评价。
And if you enjoy OddLots, if you want us to have Jan and Ben in next year to check on their 2026 forecast, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.
另外，请记住，如果您是彭博社的订阅用户，可以免费无广告收听我们所有的节目。
And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free.
您只需在 Apple 播客中找到彭博频道，并按照那里的说明操作即可。
All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
我是 Carol Masser。
I'm Carol Masser.
我是蒂姆·斯泰内克，诚邀您收听彭博商业周刊每日播客。
And I'm Tim Stenevek inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.
现在，我们每天为您带来这本杂志的报道，帮助全球领导者保持领先。
Now every day, we are bringing you reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead.
我们深入剖析塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势。
We've got insight on the people, the companies, and trends that are shaping today's complex economy.
没错，蒂姆。
That's right, Tim.
我们全方位覆盖全球商业、金融和科技新闻，实时追踪最新动态，并全面报道美国市场收盘情况。
We're all over global business, finance, tech news, all as it is happening in real time, and we've got complete coverage of The US market close.
可以说，只要影响金融市场、影响企业、影响当前的趋势和叙事，我们都会跟进。
Gotta say, basically, if it impacts financial markets, if it impacts companies, if it's impacting trends and narratives that are out there, we are on
没错。
it.
我们做这一切的时候也充满乐趣。
We also have a lot of fun doing it.
《彭博商业周刊》还通过与我们的专家嘉宾对话，为您揭示新闻背后的分析。
Bloomberg Businessweek also brings you the analysis behind the headlines through conversations with our expert guests.
我们每天工作日都会实时进行直播，并在每日播客中为您呈现最精彩的分析内容。
And we are doing this all live each weekday, and then we bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast.
请在 YouTube、Apple、Spotify 或您收听播客的任何平台搜索《彭博商业周刊》。
Search for Bloomberg Businessweek on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.
下班回家的路上收听一下，补上您在工作日错过的精彩对话。
Check it out on your way home from work to catch up on the conversations that you miss during the business day.
到了周末，不妨收听一下，全面回顾您这一周的商业动态。
And on the weekend, check it out for a complete wrap up of your business week.
这就是《彭博商业周刊》每日播客。
That's the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.
我是卡罗尔·马瑟。
I'm Carol Masser.
我是蒂姆·斯坦尼韦克。
And I'm Tim Stanivek.
立即在您收听播客的平台订阅。
Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.
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