这就是为什么伊朗战争促使人们重新思考安全港策略

你好，Odd Lots 的听众们。

Hello, Odd Lots listeners.

我是斯蒂芬·卡罗尔， Bloomberg 的《Here's Why》播客主持人，我们专注于解读新闻中的关键故事。

I'm Stephen Carroll, the host of Bloomberg's Here's Why Podcast where we break down a key story in the news.

我们最近一期节目请来了 Joe，所以想和你们分享一下。

We borrowed Joe for our latest episode, so we thought we'd share it with you.

如果你们喜欢听到的内容，可以在你通常收听播客的平台订阅《Here's Why》。

If you like what you hear, you could subscribe to Here's Why wherever you usually get your podcasts.

祝您收听愉快。

Enjoy.

Bloomberg 音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客、广播、新闻。

Podcasts, radio, news.

我还没看到一种明确的感觉，即：我的避风港在哪里？

I haven't seen yet a sense of, okay, where's my safe haven?

我该去哪儿安顿下来？

Where do I go and park myself?

目前，美国正受益于所谓的避险交易。

The US is benefiting right now from, you know, kind of the safe haven trade at the moment.

如果你能给我找到一个市场中的避险资产，我肯定是第一个报名的。

If you can find me a safe haven in this market, I'd be the first one to sign up for that.

我们发现一些避险资产的表现并没有达到我们的预期。

We do see some of the safe havens seems doesn't perform as good as we expected.

比如黄金、白银、日元和债券。

For example, the gold and silver, Japanese yen, the bonds.

在动荡时期，投资者通常会寻求更安全的投资标的。

In times of trouble, investors often look for safer ground.

在以往的危机中，这意味着投资者会大量涌入美国国债、美元、瑞士法郎或黄金等资产。

During previous crises, that's meant a rush into assets like US Treasuries, the dollar, the Swiss franc, or gold.

但去年特朗普总统的贸易关税引发的动荡，颠覆了传统的避险交易模式，投资者开始远离美国资产；而最近中东的冲突又带来了新的变化。

But the turmoil caused by President Trump's trade tariffs last year upended the traditional safe haven trades as investors turned away from US assets, and the latest conflict in The Middle East has seen another shift.

以下是伊朗战争促使人们重新思考避险资产的原因。

Here's why the Iran war is prompting a safe haven rethink.

彭博社《Odd Lots》播客主持人乔·韦岑塔尔现在加入我们，为我们带来更多信息。

Joe Weisenthal, host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcasts joins us now for more.

乔，很高兴与你交谈。

Joe, great to talk to you.

你能先帮我们理解一下这里的背景吗？

Can you help us understand, first of all, the background here?

什么样的资产才算好的避险资产？

What makes a good safe haven asset?

为什么国债、瑞士法郎或黄金被视为躲避市场动荡的避风港？

Why are treasuries or the Swiss franc or gold considered a place to shelter from market turmoil?

投资者始终寻找的是某种与经济增长或风险资产没有严格相关性的资产。

The thing that investors are always looking for is some sort of asset that is not strictly correlated to growth or to risk assets.

那么，什么是风险资产？

So what is a risk asset?

风险资产是指在经济状况良好时会上涨的资产。

A risk asset is an asset that goes up when things are going well.

所以股市是典型的风险资产。

So stock market, classic risk assets.

你感到乐观。

You're feeling optimistic.

你认为世界将会变得更好。

You think the world is gonna be good.

在其他条件相同的情况下，你希望买入更多股票。

All things equal, you want to buy more stocks.

这就是风险资产的定义。

That's what a risk asset is.

然后还有其他被归类为避险资产的资产。

Then you have other assets that are characterized as safe havens.

这些资产具有一些特性，让你预期能够得到偿还。

So there's something about their properties in which you expect to be paid back.

即使经济状况不佳，你也预期它们能保持价值。

You expect to hold their value even if things aren't going great.

所以黄金，显然是一个典型的例子。

So gold, obviously a classic one.

人们已经用它作为货币数千年了，因此总体而言，你预期它在一千年后仍具有货币价值。

People have been using it for money for thousands of years, and so by and large, you expect that it'll still have monetary possibilities in a thousand years.

黄金的表现并不依赖于经济状况是否特别良好。

The performance of gold is not contingent on things going particularly well in the economy.

国债是另一个例子。

Treasuries are another example.

美国的情况可能略有变化，但总体上仍保持稳定。

The US is maybe it's changed a little bit, but by and large stable.

票息支付仅仅取决于美国政府依法必须进行的支付。

The coupon payments are simply contingent on legally required payments from the US government.

因此，无论经济强劲还是疲软，这些支付都会照常进行。

And so again, those payments will happen regardless of whether the economy is strong or bad or whatever it is.

因此，它在全球范围内都具有避险属性。

So that has safe haven properties all around the world.

一般来说，多年来美国的通货膨胀率一直很低，尤其是与许多国家相比。

Generally speaking, The US has had very little inflation over the years, certainly relative to many countries.

因此，美元相对而言能很好地保持其价值。

And so therefore the dollar holds its value relatively well.

它几乎在世界各地都被接受。

It's accepted almost everywhere.

因此，它具有避险属性。

And so it has safe haven property.

所以，人们在压力时期所青睐的资产，与以往略有不同，是那些与商业周期不相关的资产，即使经济状况不佳，也能表现良好并保持价值。

So basically, what people gravitate to in times of stress, and it's a little different, are assets that are not correlated to the business cycle that can perform and hold their value even if things aren't going well.

那么，去年关税动荡期间有什么不同呢？

So what was different then during the tariff turmoil of last year?

因为一些传统的避险资产似乎吸引力下降了。

Because some of these traditional safe havens seemed a bit less attractive.

是的

Yeah.

所以我认为，理解这一点的方式是，避险属性是在特定时刻才会显现的。

So I think the way to think about it is that safe havenness is something that kicks in at specific times.

让我们回到关税问题上。

And so let's go back to the tariffs.

这是否造成了真正的危机，比如银行挤兑之类的？

Did it create a true crisis crisis as in like a run on the banks, etcetera?

不，其实没有。

No, not really.

虽然有很多焦虑和其它因素，但对全球许多人来说，关税的净效应是让美国看起来不再那么有投资吸引力。

There was a lot of anxiety and so forth, but the net effect of tariffs were for many people around the world, The US looked like a less attractive place to invest.

在这里做生意会变得更加昂贵，等等。

It would be more costly to do business here and so forth.

因此，在这种环境下，你看到了美元走弱。

And so in this environment, you saw the dollar weakening.

这其实与美元作为避险资产的特性本身关系不大。

This really did not have much to do with its safe haven properties per se.

这只是因为美元是一种普通货币，全球投资者一看，觉得美国的经济管理并不理想。

It was just the dollar being another currency and investors around the world looked and say, okay, this is not great for economic management.

我不太愿意在美国投入更多资产，因为进口商品、设厂等等都会变得更贵。

I don't really wanna put more assets on the ground in The US because importing goods in the factories and so forth will be more expensive.

于是他们开始抛售美元。

And so then they sell dollars.

现在我们快进到伊朗战争，情况就完全不同了。

Now you fast forward to the war in Iran, and this is very different.

这种货币的走势不再关乎宏观环境。

The dimensions of the currency are not about broader conditions.

现在正在发生战争。

There is a war going on.

我们不知道这场战争会持续多久。

We do not know how long this war is gonna go on.

战争即使原本旨在控制，也往往会失控。

Wars spiral out of control even if they're meant to be contained.

这是一个历史事实。

This is a historical fact.

在这种环境下，人们不会思考美国现在是不是一个不错的投资地点。

In that environment, people are not thinking about, is The US a good place to invest right now?

他们想的是，我感到害怕。

They're thinking, I am scared.

我现在就想把钱放在某种资产里，让它在未来一年、五年甚至更久之后仍能大致保持价值。

I want to have my money in something that is likely to roughly retain its value for a year now, five years from now, etcetera.

从这个角度来看，美元是一个相对有吸引力的选择。

And by that measure, the dollar is a relatively attractive option.

因此，在某些时候，这些我们称之为避险资产的工具，表现会有所不同。

So at times, these, what we call safe haven assets, perform differently.

在2025年，美元的表现就像一种投资资产。

In 2025, the dollar performed like an investment asset.

哦，我其实不太想持有太多，因为美国的投资环境吸引力下降了。

Oh, I don't really wanna hold it so much because The US is a less attractive environment.

如今，美元看起来不错。

Today, the dollar looks good.

美元是避险资产，并不是因为美国本身是个绝佳的投资地，而是因为那些避险特性已经发挥作用了。

It's a safe haven asset, not because The US is a great place to invest per se, but because those properties, those safe haven properties have kicked in.

那么在当前时刻，国债是如何运作的呢？

So how does that work then in this moment for treasuries?

是的。

Yeah.

另一个很好的问题。

Another great question.

是什么让国债成为避险资产？

What makes treasuries a safe haven?

显然，这是因为美国信用状况极佳，且美国以自己的货币借款。

Obviously, it's the fact that The US is very credit worthy, that The US borrows in its own currency.

因此，国债不可能出现资金耗尽的情况。

So therefore there is no prospect of the treasury running out of money.

它总是可以印钞票等等。

It can always print it and so forth.

所以，使国债具有避险属性的原因是，这种支付由美国政府担保。

And so what gives treasuries a safe haven property is the fact that that payment is guaranteed by the US government.

现在，影响国债定价的另一个因素是通货膨胀。

Now, another factor in the pricing of treasuries is inflation.

因此，如果你持有一张票息为4%的国债，每年可以获得4%的收益，但通货膨胀率，比如说上升到了6%。

And so if you have a treasury that pays a four coupon, you get a 4% yield every year, but inflation, let's say it goes to 6%.

这就成了一个亏钱的投资。

That is a money losing investment.

这笔国债的票息支付的实际价值跟不上通货膨胀，因此你不想持有它。

The real value of that treasury, that coupon payment is not keeping up with inflation, so you don't want to hold it.

由于战争，人们担心通货膨胀。

With the war, people are worried about inflation.

显然，我们已经看到油价飙升。

Mean, obviously, we've seen oil prices spike.

从预算角度来看，战争是极其昂贵的。

Wars are costly just from a sort of budgetary standpoint.

战争需要更多的财政支出。

They require more fiscal expenditure.

它们对各种资源都造成了压力。

They put strains on resources of all sorts.

我们可能需要大幅增加导弹的生产。

We may have to massively ramp up missile production.

这给实体经济带来了压力。

That puts strains on the real economy.

所有这些因素本身都具有通胀性。

All of these things taken to be per se inflationary.

所以当你作为投资者，有人向你推销国债时，你会想：你知道吗？

So then you look and you're like, if you're an investor, someone's selling you a treasury, you're thinking, you know what?

我希望获得更高的收益率来补偿这种通货膨胀。

I want a higher yield to compensate for this inflation.

所以，这又是一种情况：同样的资产在不同的环境下，其避险特性此时并未发挥作用。

So it's the type of thing once again, where the same asset in a different environment, the safe haven properties aren't kicking in for that moment.

现在我认为值得注意的是，你可以观察一下VIX，比如金融状况的指标，它能纯粹反映人们的焦虑程度。

Now I do think it's worth noting that you can watch, say, the VIX, for example, measure of financial conditions and a pure measure of how anxious people are feeling.

如果你看到VIX大幅飙升，那么人们很可能会购买国债。

If you get a major VIX spike, there is a good chance that people will buy treasuries.

所以我要说的是，我提到了所有关于国债的担忧。

And so what I'm saying is, I mentioned all the concerns with treasuries.

然而，也许人们为了这种安全感，愿意付出这样的代价。

However, maybe that's a price people are willing to pay just for that security.

因此，这里存在一种拉锯关系。

And so there's a push pull here.

我喜欢这种收益有保障的事实。

I like the fact that the payment is guaranteed.

我不喜欢支付金额会随通胀调整这一点。

I don't like the fact that the payment is gonna keep up with inflation.

如果情况真的恶化了，你可能会说，嘿，算了。

If things are really breaking down, you might say, you know what?

我愿意承受价格损失。

I'm willing to take a price loss.

我愿意接受低于通胀率的票息，因为至少我能收到付款，而且到期时本金也能拿回——无论是十年期国债——在如此高度焦虑的时期，这一点对我来说价值巨大，以至于我仍会把国债当作避险资产，即使它是一项亏本投资。

I'm willing to accept a coupon payment that is less than inflation because the fact that I get paid anything at all and the fact that I will get my principal back at the end of the term, whether it's a ten year treasury, is worth so much to me in this period of extreme anxiety that I will use a treasury as a safe haven even if it's a money losing investment.

我喜欢打一个比喻，那就是保险箱。

An analogy that I like to make is a safe deposit box.

你要付钱给银行，才能使用保险箱存放东西。

You pay the bank for the right to hold something in a safe deposit box.

事实上，这意味着保险箱的收益率是负的，但它常常被纳入人们的避险投资组合中。

De facto, that means that a safe deposit box has a negative yield and yet it is often part of someone's safe haven portfolio.

我会把我的黄金放在里面，尽管每年都要花点钱，但知道有一天我能取出来，这份安心感是无比宝贵的。

I'm gonna put my values bulls in there despite the fact that it costs me a little bit of money every year because the fact that I will be able to take them out one day is worth quite a bit of peace of mind.

你能给我们解释一下黄金发生了什么吗？

Can you then explain to us what happened with gold?

因为如果我们看一下过去几年的黄金走势图，我们已经详细讨论过，你知道，价格一直在上涨

Because if we look at a gold chart for the past few years, and we've talked about it at length, you know, number go up to

是的

Yeah.

当然

Absolutely.

引用我们的同事泽克·福克斯和他的关于加密货币的书。

Quote our colleague Zeke Fox and his book about crypto.

但这一次，在伊朗战争期间，我们并没有看到黄金出现同样的上涨。

But this time around, we haven't seen the same rally in gold during the Iran war.

为什么？

Why?

首先，正如你所说，黄金在过去几年里已经大幅上涨，并且在一段我称之为持续高通胀的时期内上涨了。

First of all, as you said, gold has rallied a lot over the last several years and it's rallied during a period of, I would say, sustained high inflation.

通胀率已经下降，但全球范围内的通胀仍然相当高。

The rate of inflation has come down, but inflation all around the world is still fairly high.

人们担心纸币无法保持其购买力。

People are worried about the paper currencies holding their volume.

在地缘政治紧张时期，金价有所上涨，自2022年以来，世界各地显然爆发了多场战争。

It's gone up during a period of geopolitical tension, obviously multiple wars around the world since 2022.

因此，人们再次对主权问题以及一些根本性问题感到焦虑。

And so once again, there's this anxiety about sovereignty and some pretty fundamental questions.

因此，正是在这种环境下，人们希望寻求一种超越时间、超越空间、超越国家的外来资产。

And so this is the type of environment in which people want to reach foreign asset that once again, transcends time, it transcends space, it transcends nation states and so forth.

这是一种在全球各地和整个历史上都被广泛理解的货币形式。

It's a form of money that's kind of understood everywhere in the world and throughout history.

因此，过去几年为那些希望配置一部分资产到这种资产的人提供了非常有利的环境。

So the last several years have been a really good environment for people wanting to have some allocation to that.

人们希望持有美元的替代品。

People wanna hold a dollar alternative.

如果你回想起2022年，俄罗斯遭到制裁，失去了其持有的大量美元。

If you think back to 2022, Russia got sanctioned and lost access to a lot of the dollars that it had.

我认为全世界的人都在观察这一情况，心里会想：你知道吗？

And I think people around the world were looking at that and you're like, you know what?

也许我应该减少持有美元，因为有一天这种情况也可能发生在我身上，所以我更想把黄金存在金库中。

Maybe I wanna hold fewer dollars because this could happen to me too one day, and so I wanna hold gold in a vault.

现在战争爆发了，黄金的表现却并不理想。

Now we get the war, and gold hasn't done as well.

我认为可能有几个原因。

I think there's probably a couple of factors.

你知道，当出现极端剧烈波动时，这有点反直觉：当你真正感到恐惧时，美元反而对你来说变得更吸引人了，因为你开始想到：我得交房租。

You know, something that happens in an extreme spike, and this is a little bit counterintuitive, is when you have real fear, dollars suddenly become more interesting to you because you start thinking, I have a rent bill to pay.

我得交彭博终端的费用。

I have a Bloomberg bill to pay.

我得支付我的终端服务费。

I have to pay for my terminal.

我得付电费。

I have to pay for the lights.

我得付所有费用。

I have to pay for everything.

你只想熬到下个月，而熬到下个月的方法就是确保把账单都付了。

You want to just survive to the next month and the way you survive to the next month is making sure that your bills are paid.

你不能用黄金来付账单。

Can't pay your bills in gold.

于是你心里想，好吧，现在正在发生大规模的清算。

And so you think to yourself, okay, there's big liquidations happening.

我长期确实想持有黄金，但短期内我得弄到一些美元。

I do want to hold gold long term, but in the short term, I need to come up with some dollars.

因此，黄金在过去几年表现极佳，但在这种环境下，你可能会选择卖出它。

And so gold having done extremely well over the last few years, it may be something that you sell in this environment.

黄金还有另一个缺点，就是转移起来成本很高。

There's another drawback to gold, which is that it's costly to move.

它很重。

It's heavy.

与比特币或美元不同，你不能在世界任何地方随时提取它。

Unlike say Bitcoin or on say the dollar, you can't just withdraw it anywhere in the world.

如果你的黄金存放在瑞士的金库中，而你搬到了新加坡，那么你的黄金并不能随时取用。

If you have your gold in a vault in Switzerland and you move to Singapore, that gold is not available to you at a moment's notice.

所以你得考虑如何把它运过去？

So you have to think about how are you going to get it there?

或者如果情况真的恶化，你该如何把黄金从金库中取出来？

Or if things really go bad, how do you get your gold out of that vault?

这些确实是黄金投资者有时必须面对的问题。

These are questions that gold investors actually have to think about sometimes.

考虑到霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，以及我们不知道这场战争会蔓延到多广的范围，也许持有那种物理转移能力构成其吸引力的资产，确实会带来一些成本。

And I do wonder, given the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz and given the fact that we don't know how wide the war is going to spend, maybe there is a little bit of cost to holding something in which the ability to physically move it to where you are is part of its appeal.

因此，或许在边际上，这构成了黄金的一个不利因素——作为一种在物理移动受阻时仍需实际运输的货币形式。

And so perhaps at the margins, this is a negative factor in gold, which is here as a type of money that has to be physically moved at a time when physical movement is under stress.

乔，这内容太精彩了。

Joe, fascinating stuff.

非常感谢你加入我们。

Thanks so much for joining us.

乔·魏森塔尔，彭博社《Odd Lots》播客的主持人。

Joe Weisenthal, host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast.

如需了解更多来自我们全球3000名记者和分析师的深度解析，请访问 bloomberg.com/explainers。

For more explanations like this from our team of 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world, go to bloomberg.com/explainers.

我是斯蒂芬·卡罗尔。

I'm Stephen Carroll.

欢迎收看《这就是原因》。

This is here's why.

下周我会回来，带来更多精彩内容。

I'll be back next week with more.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.