本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
市场变化迅速。
Markets move fast.
通过巴克莱简报——来自巴克莱投资银行的播客，在十分钟内获取您所需的洞察。
Get the insights you need in ten minutes with Barclays brief, a podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.
每周，我们的专家分析市场趋势，帮助您预判下一步动向。
Each week, our experts analyze market themes, helping you anticipate what's next.
在您收听播客的任何平台收听巴克莱简报。
Listen to Barclays brief wherever you get your podcasts.
彭博音频工作室。
Bloomberg Audio Studios.
播客。
Podcasts.
广播。
Radio.
新闻。
News.
大家好，欢迎收听又一期《Odd Lots》播客。
Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.
我是吉尔·韦因斯坦。
I'm Jill Weisenthal.
我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。
And I'm Tracey Allaway.
特蕾西，今天早上我看到一个有趣的标题。
Tracey, I saw an interesting headline this morning.
只有一个？
Just one?
说得好。
Good point.
我看到了无数个有趣的标题，但有一个特别引起我注意，而且似乎对市场有影响：詹森·黄的一番评论。
I saw a million interesting headlines, But one that sort of caught my eye and it was sort of market moving is that there was this comment from Jensen Huang.
他在一个名为CES的大会上发表了这些言论。
He was at a conference, the CES conference.
他谈到，未来他们的芯片会像通常那样变得更加高效，因此未来的数据中心可能不需要那么密集的冷却基础设施或冷却设备。
And he was talking about how in the future, I guess their chips are getting more efficient as chips tend to do, that they may not need as much intense cooling infrastructure or cooling equipment for future data centers.
而许多冷却领域的公司，比如特灵科技，股价受到了严重打击，因为我们知道这些公司曾是人工智能热潮中的大赢家。
And a bunch of those, like, cooling names, like Trane Technology, they're, like, really getting clobbered because we know those have been, like, some of the big winners from the AI boom.
我能听到那些收购了暖通空调公司的私募股权公司从那边尖叫。
I can hear all the private equity shops that bought HVAC outfits screaming from over here.
不。
No.
这确实是一个非常有趣的新闻标题。
It is a really interesting headline.
对吧？
Right?
因为你会把这看作是一个技术领域。
Because you think about this as a technology space.
是的。
Yeah.
人工智能是一种技术，但它附带了庞大的基础设施需求。
AI is technology, but it has this huge infrastructure aspect attached to it.
据我了解，基础设施投资者历来倾向于偏好相对稳定的回报。
Infrastructure investors, from what I understand, you know, historically have tended to like relatively stable returns.
对吧？
Right?
你投资它，是因为你期望这是一项相当可靠的业务。
You invest in it because you expect this to be a pretty reliable business.
但因为你所拥有的基础设施现在与科技紧密相连，似乎存在一个巨大的风险：每年、每两年，甚至可能每月都会出现一次重大的技术升级，彻底改变整个格局。
But because you have infrastructure that is now tied to tech, it seems like there's a pretty big risk that every year or every two years or maybe even months now, there's gonna be some huge tech upgrade that just changes the equation entirely.
这是个很好的观点。
It's a good point.
我想，很多年前我第一次听说基础设施投资时，是听说我们买了一条收费公路。
I think the first time years and years ago I started hearing about infrastructure investing, was like, oh, we bought a toll road.
对。
Right.
或者我们
Or we
买了一个机场。
bought an airport.
机场和收费公路在很大程度上并不容易受到干扰。
And airports, by and large, they don't get disrupted very much or a toll road.
这些业务的基本模式一直保持稳定。
The basic business of some of these things has remained stable.
但没错，正如你所说，尤其是现在技术与之紧密关联，究竟哪种技术会胜出或需要什么，似乎变得高度不确定。
But, yeah, to your point, especially now that there's such a link with tech, there's just the volatility of what's going to win out or what's needed seems highly uncertain.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，目前另一个显而易见的事情是，大家都在谈论人工智能的估值。
And of course, the other obvious thing going on at the moment is everyone's talking about AI valuations.
建设速度是不是超前了？
Is the build out getting ahead of itself?
这些公司真的能够产生足够的现金流来支撑如此庞大的投资支出吗？
Are all these companies actually going to be able to generate enough cash flow that backs up all this investment spend?
另一点是我们观察到的，即基础设施投资绝非什么新鲜事。
The other thing too, and it's something that we've observed, which is if you go back to infrastructure investing is not a new thing by any stretch.
但回溯到2010年代，当时赚到的大量资金其实更多是金融工程和财务机会——在所有人都资金枯竭时，谁手上有闲置资金，谁就能获利。
But you go back to the twenty tens and so much of the money that was made then, it was sort of like financial engineering, financial opportunities, who had dry powder at a time when everyone is broke and so forth.
而如今反复出现的一个主题是，要想赚钱，你真的得亲自动手、深入实际。
And one of the themes that's recurring over and over again these days is just like to make money, it feels like you really have to get your hands dirty.
各种实体事物。
Physical things of all sorts.
自新冠疫情以来，实体事物就一直摆在我们面前，而由于大量公共资金涌入该领域，这一趋势进一步加速了。
And physical things have just been on our face constantly since COVID, and then it's accelerated because of there's so much public money pouring into the space.
因此，世界各国政府都在大幅增加支出。
So governments around the world really opening up the tabs.
上周末我们录制这段内容时是1月6日，顺便提一下，显然是马杜罗的消息。
Then over the weekend, we're recording this January 6, by the way, obviously, the Maduro news.
于是就有了这些东西。
And so then there's all of this stuff.
如果这些石油最终要盈利开采，谁来重建所有的石油基础设施呢？
Oh, who's gonna rebuild all of that oil infrastructure if that oil is ever going to profitably be tapped?
就像这样，物理世界才是我们这个时代的故事。
Like, this is just sort of the physical world is sort of like the story of our time.
人们现在在谈论公私合营吗？
Are people talking about public private partnerships yet?
我觉得这又是一件每隔一段时间就会重新出现的周期性事情。
I feel like this is another cyclical thing that just pops up every once in a while.
我要请我们的嘉宾进来。
I'm gonna do let's bring in our guest.
在我们这么做之前，我要做个新闻趋势搜索，看看我们现在处于公私合营周期的哪个阶段。
And while we do that, I'm gonna do a news trend search to see where we are in the public private partnership cycle.
是的。
Yes.
让我们请出我们的嘉宾。
Let's bring in our guest.
我们确实请到了一位在这个领域经验丰富的完美嘉宾。
Well, we really do have the perfect guest, lots of experience in this realm.
我们将与泰勒·罗森利希特对话。
We are gonna be speaking with Tyler Rosenlicht.
他是科恩与斯泰尔斯公司全球上市基础设施和自然资源股票的投资组合经理。
He's a portfolio manager, global listed infrastructure, and natural resource equities at Cohen and Steers.
所以我们将会讨论所有这些内容。
So we're gonna talk about all this stuff.
泰勒，非常感谢你做客《亡命之徒》。
Tyler, thank you so much for coming on Outlaw.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
我非常兴奋。
I'm real excited.
你的工作是什么？
What's your job?
你做些什么？
What do you do?
我们为什么要找你谈话？
Why are we talking to you?
Cohen and Steers 是什么？
What's Cohen and Steers?
让我们先把这些问题都讲清楚。
Let's let's get that all out of the way.
嗯。
Yeah.
所以，Cohen and Steers 是一家只做多头的资产管理公司。
So Cohen and Steers, we're a long only asset manager.
我们主要投资于实物资产和另类收益策略。
We primarily invest in real assets and alternative income strategies.
所以我们管理着共同基金和ETF，包括主动型ETF，以及为机构投资者提供的单独账户。
So we're, you know, managing mutual funds and ETFs, active ETFs, and separate accounts for institutional investors.
我们主要专注于几个利基领域，目前主要是实物资产策略。
Focused on a couple niche things, primarily real assets strategies here and now.
这包括上市房地产投资信托基金（REITs），我们在这方面非常知名，还有大宗商品，而我负责的是我们的全球上市基础设施和自然资源股权策略。
So that's things like listed REITs, which we're really well known for, commodities, and then where I help is our global listed infrastructure and our natural resource equity strategies.
这些是专注于基础设施的长期策略。
So these are long only strategies investing across in infrastructure.
我们称之为细分领域。
It's what we call acute subsectors.
比如通信。
So that's communications.
像通信塔、数据中心和卫星这样的东西。
Things like cell towers, data centers, and satellites.
公用事业。
Utilities.
所以这是电力、燃气、水务和可再生能源。
So this is electric, gas, water, renewables.
交通运输，比如你提到的收费公路、机场、海港和货运铁路。
Transportation, the toll roads that you talked about, toll roads, airports, marine ports, and freight rails.
然后能源方面是中游管道等等。
And then e, energy is midstream pipelines and so forth.
所以我们试图全面考察，让投资者接触到这个真正充满活力和令人兴奋的领域。
So we we try to look at everything and and give investors exposure to what is really a dynamic and exciting place.
过去一两年里，你们忙吗？
So how busy have you been over the past year or two?
一直非常忙。
It's been very busy.
我的玩笑话以前是，我投资的都是传统经济领域的东西。
I mean, my joke used to be that I invest in all the old economy stuff.
现在变成了新经济领域的东西，而且正是人们真正热衷的领域。
Now it's like the new economy stuff, and it's the stuff that people are really excited about.
我认为这些趋势其实已经酝酿了很久，我们可能已经讨论了整整十年，但它们直到过去十八个月才真正登上彭博社每天早上的头版。
And I'd say we've seen a lot of these trends kind of coming for a long time, and we've talked about them for probably a decade, but they've really only surfaced kind of to the front page of Bloomberg every morning in the last eighteen months.
我觉得这真的令人兴奋。
And I think that's really exciting.
我们一直非常忙碌，因为出现了大量新的机会。
And we've been really busy because there's lots of new opportunities.
我们在传统公用事业、众多新能源领域、核能、可再生能源、管道以及许多新兴业务、资本形成方面都看到了绝佳的投资机会。
We see investment cases in traditional utilities, tons of new alternatives, nuclear, renewables, pipelines, lots of new businesses, capital formation, great opportunities.
那么，目前投资者与需要投资的公司之间的权力平衡是怎样的？
And what's the balance of power actually like between investors and the companies that need investment at the moment?
因为我觉得现在的情况可能朝任何一方倾斜。
Because I imagine it could go either way right now.
比如，数据中心的能源需求绝对巨大，因此需要海量资本。
Like, the energy needs for data centers are absolutely massive, so it needs tons and tons of capital.
但与此同时，正如我们之前讨论的，许多投资者都非常渴望寻找机会并抢占先机。
But at the same time, a lot of investors, as we've been discussing, have been very, very eager to identify opportunities and get their foot in the door.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，在我所处的实物资产经济世界里，资本非常重要。
I mean, in the world that I live in, which is the sort of hard asset economy, I'd say having capital is very important.
但现在我们正处于一个周期节点，投资需求如此之大，给企业带来了相当大的挑战。
But we're now at a place in the cycle where the investment needs are so big that it's creating pretty big challenges for companies.
以公用事业部门为例。
And take the utility sector as an example.
十八个月前，如果你说，嘿，公用事业的资本支出将加速，收益增长也将加速，每个公用事业投资者都会说，这太棒了。
Eighteen months ago, if you said, Hey, utility CapEx is going to accelerate and earnings growth is gonna accelerate, every utility investor would say, That's great.
但我们现在已经达到了一个程度，答案变得非常微妙。
We've gone to such a level now that it's actually a really nuanced answer.
如今公用事业投资所需的资金如此之多，已经引发了严重的负担问题。
There is so much capital required in utility investment today that it's really causing affordability problems.
我们认为一些公用事业公司将会非常艰难，因为选举的胜负正取决于电费问题。
And some utilities we think are really gonna struggle because elections are being won about utility bills.
另一方面，其他公用事业公司实际上会邀请数据中心进入其服务区域，从而降低电费。
Other utilities on the other hand, actually you invite data centers into your service territory and it lowers bills.
因此，从主动管理的角度来看，如今不同结果和投资机会之间的差异达到了前所未有的程度。
And so today I actually think from an active management perspective, that dispersion in terms of outcomes and investment opportunities is as wide as it's ever been.
这对作为投资者的我们来说是非常有利的。
So that's a really good thing for us as investors.
而且我认为这不会结束。
And I think it's not gonna end.
我们认为这些是长期存在的结构性趋势，将持续一段时间，从基础设施投资的角度来看，这并非一时潮流。
We think these are structural secular trends that are here for a while, and we don't think this is a fad from an infrastructure investment perspective.
简单说一下，数据中心降低电费。
Just real quickly, data centers lowering bills.
这样的新闻头条并不会走红。
Headlines like that don't go viral.
这到底是怎么回事？
What's that all about?
是的。
Yeah.
这非常复杂。
It's very nuanced.
所以，如果你从公用事业的商业模式来看，简单来说，公用事业公司会投资于其资产基础。
So if you think about the utility business model, very simplistically, the utility invests in its rate base.
比如说，他们的资产基础是100亿美元，他们被允许获得10%的股本回报率。
So let's say their rate base is $10,000,000,000 They're allowed a return on equity, maybe it's 10%.
他们赚取10亿美元。
They earn a billion dollars.
这是一道非常简单的数学题。
This is very simple math.
但这并不是实际运作的精确方式。
This isn't how it exactly works.
然后他们将成本转嫁给客户，这就是他们的收入要求，也就是我们这些用户支付的费用。
But then they charge their cost to customers and that's their revenue requirement, what we as bill payers pay.
你将你的费率基数翻倍。
You double your rate base.
如果你不增加客户，你的成本实际上可能翻倍。
If you don't increase your customers, you could actually double your costs.
这正是纽约市、华盛顿特区及其他地方正在发生的情况。
And that's a lot of what's happening here in New York City and Washington, DC and other places.
有些公用事业公司拥有长期的发电设施或长期电力资源。
There are some utilities that are long generation or they're long power.
所以简单地想一想。
So just think about that very simplistically.
你有一家公用事业公司，它拥有一个费率基数。
You've got a utility, it's got a rate base.
在这个费率基数内，每个用户都在为实际上未被使用的电力付费。
And inside that rate base, every rate payer is paying for power that's not actually being used.
将一个数据中心引入该服务区域，这个数据中心本身可能会消耗这些电力。
Bring a data center into that service territory, the data center itself might consume that power.
而作为电价支付者，你实际上不会在月度账单中承担这笔费用。
And you as the rate payer are not actually gonna be burdened by that cost in your monthly bill.
因此，对我们来说，理解监管机制、委员会成员是谁、他们的电力系统和发电方式等，至关重要。
And so for us, we think it's really important you've got to understand the regulation, who the commissioners are, what their power systems are like, their generation and so forth.
确实有一些例子表明，数据中心对公用事业公司和客户都有好处。
And there are examples of data centers being really good for both the utility and the customer.
但这非常复杂，很大程度上取决于你所处的地区以及你的资产结构。
But that's, again, it's very nuanced, it really depends on where you are and sort of what your asset base looks like.
再多谈谈这一点吧，因为我们之前做过关于数据中心建设所涉及政治风险的节目。
Talk a little bit more about that because we've done episodes on the political risks involved with the data center build out.
这似乎正在获得越来越多的关注，尤其是在我们进入中期选举、政客们纷纷就这一问题表明立场的时候。
And this seems to be something that is really gaining traction, especially as we go into the midterms and we see politicians sort of laying down their positions on this particular issue.
但要让一个数据中心在某种程度上改善某个州或地区的电力市场，这究竟有多现实？
But how feasible is it that you could get a data center that could actually in some way improve the electricity market in a particular state or location.
然后我想，你肯定需要很大的空间才能建设一个数据中心，对吧？
And then I imagine that you have to have a lot of room, right, to have a data center.
你得有水源之类的条件。
You have to have water access and things like that.
不可能在任何地方都合适。
It can't be good everywhere.
对吧？
Right?
当然了。
Oh, definitely.
我们并不是说它在任何地方都好。
We're not saying it's good everywhere.
我的意思是，恰恰相反，很多地方其实很糟糕，但在某些地方却非常好。
I mean, I I'd go the opposite and say it's really actually bad in a lot of places, and then it's really good in some places.
所以这真的取决于你刚才提到的所有因素，比如，你有发电能力吗？
And so it really depends on all the things that you just laid out, which is, yeah, do you have the generation?
你有水吗？
Do you have the water?
你还有其他所有条件吗？
Do you have everything else?
你现在在公用事业领域看到的是数据中心的费率，这些费率正在协商中，并正在通过公用事业监管流程。
What you're seeing now in utilities is data center tariffs that are being kind of negotiated and going through the utility regulation process today.
例如，我们在威斯康星州看到一些案例，其中数据中心对当地用户几乎没有影响。
And we've seen some examples in Wisconsin, for instance, where effectively the data center has zero impact on the local rate payer.
威斯康星州的超大规模企业已同意保证公用事业公司资本支出的投资回报率。
The hyperscaler in Wisconsin has agreed to guarantee a return on a rate base for the CapEx that the utility is spending.
这完全不会影响那里的用户费率。
It's not gonna impact the rate payers there at all.
因此，这实际上是建立在公用事业客户基础上的。
And so it's kind of done off of the back of the utility customer.
但在其他地方，他们仍在处理这些公用事业合同，或者我们可能会看到，但你也可能面临巨大的搁浅资产风险。
There's other places though, where they're still working through those utility contracts, or we'll see, but hey, you could have big stranded asset risk.
公用事业公司将花费数十亿美元。
Utility is going to spend a couple billion dollars.
他们会确保数据中心拥有电力供应。
They're going make sure that the data center has power and electricity.
也许五年后数据中心就离开了，到时候每个人都将被困在搁浅资产中。
Maybe the data center leaves five years from now, and then everybody's gonna be stuck with a stranded asset.
所以，不，绝对地，退一步想想。
So no, definitively, take a step back.
我们认为世界需要更多的能源。
We think the world needs more energy.
我们认为世界需要更多的电力。
We think the world needs more power.
它将为数据中心提供服务。
It's gonna service data centers.
它将为工业客户、住宅客户，以及各种其他需求服务，比如电动汽车，等等。
It's gonna service industrial customers, residential customers, sort of everything, EVs, you name it.
但这也伴随着电费上涨的压力。
But that's gonna come with the tension of rising bills.
这对一些地区来说将是一个挑战，对另一些地区则是一个机遇。
And that's gonna be a challenge for some places and an opportunity for others.
我很好奇。
I'm curious.
我们会深入探讨所有这些细节，但我实际上非常好奇你是如何工作的，以及你是如何弄清楚这些事情的。
We'll get into all these details and stuff, but I'm actually very curious about how you work and how you figure this stuff out.
我不得不想象，以你从事这项工作这么长时间来看，每天一定都会有新东西出现，因为正如特蕾西提到的，这个行业已经从大量稳定运营转变为高科技领域，充满了不确定性。
I have to imagine, for as long as you've been working on this, there must be new things every day because as Tracy mentioned, we've it's gone from this sort of like a lot of stayed stable operations to high-tech and there's so much uncertainty.
你是如何工作的？
How do you work?
你是如何学习新事物的？
Like, how do you learn about things?
你有一支分析师团队吗？等等。
Do you have a team of analysts, etcetera?
跟我们聊聊吧，你们是如何应对如此多的新鲜事物的？
Talk to us about like the process for wrapping your heads around so much novelty.
是的。
Yeah.
我们有一个很棒的团队。
So we've got a great team.
在我们的基础设施团队中，有四位投资组合经理，我们按地理区域划分职责。
On our infrastructure team, there's four portfolio managers, and we break the world up by geography.
我们在伦敦有一位投资经理，协助我们进行欧洲基础设施投资，另外三位则在纽约，拥有不同的专业专长。
We have 1PM in London who helps us with our European infrastructure investments, and then three here in New York with varying expertise.
此外，我们还有七名分析师，他们是我们的前线人员。
And then we have seven analysts, and they're sort of our boots on the ground.
我的意思是，科恩与斯泰尔斯公司自1986年成立以来就是一家房地产投资者。
I mean, Cohen and Steers was founded as a real estate investor back in 1986.
我们的理念是亲临现场，实地考察物业，巡视资产，因为只有这样，你才能发现独特的洞察。
And our perspective was be on the ground, be walking properties, be touring assets because you can find unique insights if you do that sort of thing.
因此，我们希望组建一支庞大的团队，由行业专家组成，真正理解公用事业、背后的监管政策、当地政治动态，亲自巡视资产，与当地专业人士交流，寻找能够发现独特洞察的机会——比如监管环境正在显著改善，或者我们发现了一份可能对这家小型地方公用事业公司极为有利的独特合同。
So we want to have this big team that is sector specialists that really understands the utilities, the regulation behind it, what's going on in local politics, going and touring assets, talking to local professionals, and trying to find kind of where we can see unique insights and where, hey, the regulation's getting a lot better, or there's this unique contract that we think is going to be really beneficial to this small local utility.
或者，新泽西州那边情况如何？
Or, hey, what's going on in New Jersey?
弗吉尼亚州、纽约市那边情况怎么样？
What's going on in Virginia, in New York City?
这些又会如何影响局势呢？
How's that gonna affect things as well?
因此，我们认为让这个团队进行深入的基本面研究非常重要。
And so we think it's important to have this team do really detailed fundamental work.
对我们投资者而言，我们的首席投资官会将我们描述为主题驱动的相对价值投资者。
And for us as investors, I mean our CIO, he would characterize us as thematically informed relative value investors.
所以我们寻找那些被低估、定价过低的好主题，然后找到最佳的投资机会来利用这些主题。
So let's find good themes that are underappreciated and underpriced, and then find the best investment opportunities to take advantage of those.
如果我们这样做，我们认为可以取得非常好的投资成果。
And if you do that, we think you can generate really good investment results.
我最喜欢的卖方研究形式，仍然是分析师外出实地考察。
My favorite form of sell side research remains the analyst going on field trips.
我现在在想象，我想要
Now I'm imagining I want
那份工作。
that job.
每个人都在盯着新泽西的一个数据中心之类的地方。
Everyone's staring at a data center in New Jersey or something.
我知道你不是卖方。
I know you're not sell side.
但说到这个，交易到底是怎么落到你桌上的呢？
But speaking of that, though, how do deals actually land on your desk?
我说这话时意识到，我好像在假设有人会像寄offer信一样把交易寄给你，实际上它们是直接出现在你桌上的。
And I say that realizing that I'm talking as if someone's, like, mailing out offer letters to you and it's actually landing on your desk.
交易或潜在机会是如何出现在你眼前的？
How do deals or potential opportunities get to your screen?
我们是公开市场投资者。
So we're public markets investors.
所以我们只是在寻找上市证券，判断哪些证券在未来一年、三年、五年内最具优势。
So we're just trying to find listed securities and figure out which ones we think are best positioned for the next one year, three year, five years.
因此我们始终处于投资状态。
And so we're constantly invested.
当我们通过开放式基金、共同基金、主动型ETF或单独账户募集资金时，资金会不断流入，而我们的核心策略则始终处于投资状态。
So as we raise capital via open and mutual funds or through our active ETFs or through separate accounts, It kind of comes in and then we have our core strategy that's invested at all times.
对我们而言，关键在于以一种我们认为能显著超越我们所对标基准的方式进行布局。
And for us, it's about being positioned in a way that we think will do a lot better than the benchmarks that we're measured against.
因此，这类似于传统的股票研究职能，我们不断努力确保自己在市场动态方面保持前沿，识别出诸如北达科他州的公用事业公司即将吸引当地数据中心客户这类被市场低估的机会。
And so for us, it's sort of your traditional equity research function where we are constantly trying to make sure that we are leading edge in terms of what's happening in markets and identify, hey, we think that this thing is gonna happen to the North Dakota utility as they invite a local data center customer there that's underappreciated by the market.
这本质上就是每个人都在做的基本面实地调研，只是我们认为自己有一些独特的方法和流程来挖掘这些机会。
And so it's the fundamental boots on the ground stuff that everybody does, and we just think that we've got some unique processes and unique ways to to tap it.
今天的市场变化迅速。
Today's markets move fast.
通过巴克莱投资银行推出的新播客《巴克莱简报》，十分钟内获取您所需的洞察。
Get the insights you need in ten minutes with The Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.
通过敏锐的对话和基于情景的分析，我们的领先专家每周剖析关键市场主题。
Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week.
因此，无论您是在管理投资组合还是领导企业，《巴克莱简报》播客都能帮助您今天做出更明智的决策。
So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, The Barclays Brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today.
保持敏锐。
Stay sharp.
保持知情。
Stay briefed.
在您收听播客的任何平台均可找到《巴克莱简报》。
Find Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.
在什么时候，您或市场才逐渐意识到，许多我们长期以来视为典型周期性公司的企业，如今可能已成为结构性赢家？
At what point did it sort of dawn on you or dawn on the market, etcetera, that a lot of companies that we had long associated with being sort of classically cyclical companies could be secular winners now?
我想像卡特彼勒这样的公司，你通常认为它的兴衰与GDP息息相关。
I'm thinking of like a caterpillar, which you just sort of imagine by and large, here is a company whose fortunes rise and fall with GDP.
对吧？
Right?
经济正在良好增长。
The economy is growing well.
很可能会有大量人购买设备来破土动工。
They're probably gonna have a lot of people are gonna be buying equipment to break ground.
经济衰退时，人们就会减少购买。
You get a recession, people buy less of it.
然后，一些事情发生了变化。
And then something changed.
当你看一家卡特彼勒公司的图表时，你会发现，它不再是一家周期性公司了。
And you look at a chart of like a caterpillar, it's like, okay, this is no longer a cyclical company.
什么时候开始，人们逐渐意识到某些事情正在发生变化？
When did this start to like take hold or sort of dawn on people that something was changing?
变化？
Changing?
是的，我首先从双重职能说起，我负责协助管理我们的基础设施策略和自然资源股权策略。
Yeah, I'd start with, so I have kind of the dual function where I oversee, help oversee our infrastructure strategies and our natural resource equity strategies.
在这一方面，我们投资于整个能源价值链、金属和采矿价值链、农业价值链。
And I'd say on that side of the house, that's investing in things like the entire energy value chain, the metals and mining value chain, the ag value chain.
你已经看到了很多类似你刚才提到的‘卡特彼勒式’的转变，即这个曾经高度周期性的业务，突然被估值为不再那么周期性。
You've seen a lot more of like the caterpillar type transitions that you just alluded to, which is, hey, this hyper cyclical business that suddenly is being valued like it's not as cyclical.
所以我会从这一点开始：一切始终都有周期。
So I'd start with things always have cycles.
因此，它现在可能看起来不具周期性，但未来可能又会恢复周期性。
And so it might be perceived as not cyclical now, but maybe it will become cyclical again in the future.
但我们的观点是，这些周期实际上更高、更深，持续时间也长得多。
But our view would be, hey, these cycles are actually higher and deeper and lasting a lot longer.
其中一个主要驱动因素是，长期以来，自然资源领域一直资本匮乏。
And one of the big drivers has been a lot of the natural resources world has been a capital starve for a while.
在此过程中，许多行业和领域已经大幅整合。
In that process, many sectors and industries have consolidated quite a bit.
因此，专业知识实际上已经集中在少数几家公司的手中。
And so the expertise has really accrued to just a couple players.
如果你仔细想想，我们会认为自然资源领域已经告别了我们所说的丰裕时代，进入了稀缺时代。
And if you think about that and you say, Hey, one of the things that we believe about natural resources is that we've exited what we talked about as the era of abundance, and we've entered the era of scarcity.
我们所必需的各类资源，根本不足以支撑经济的增长。
We just don't have enough of all the stuff that we need for the economy to grow.
而那些真正有助于终结这种稀缺性的公司，数量却非常有限。
And the companies that actually facilitate ending that scarcity, there's just not as many of them.
因为这些行业经历了大规模的整合，我们认为这种整合将是持久的，并将使这些公司获得高于平均水平的回报，并实现长期更可预测的增长。
Because again, there's been massive consolidation in these sectors that we think will be persistent and will allow them to earn above average returns, have a lot more predictable growth for a long time.
未来我们可能会重新评估，也许竞争者会重新回归，市场又会走向另一个方向。
And then we'll reassess in the future and maybe the competition will be invited back and they're gonna go back in the other way.
但我们认为，许多这些趋势才刚刚起步，这种长期增长趋势以及增长波动性的降低，与十年前已大不相同。
But we think it's really early in a lot of these trends and the sort of secular growth and the reduction in volatility of that growth is very different now than it was ten years ago.
我理解你关于行业整合和长期投资周期的观点。
So I take the point about consolidation and that you're working on pretty long timelines.
但如何防范一种可能性呢？就像所有基础设施和能源相关行业一样，似乎我们总会在周期的某个阶段遭遇产能过剩。
But how do you guard against you know, the possibility that as with everything infrastructure related and energy related, certainly, it seems like we always end up with overcapacity at some point in the cycle.
你如何避免这种情况？
How do you avoid that?
无法避免。
Can't avoid it.
好吧。
Okay.
这种情况会发生。
That will happen.
对吧？
Right?
就像商品周期一样，低价的解药是低价，高价的解药是高价。
Like on the commodity cycle, the cure for low prices is low prices, the cure for high prices is high prices.
基础设施领域也是如此。
The same thing on the infrastructure side.
不过基础设施，再次强调，通常是通过监管或竞争格局形成的垄断性资产。
Although infrastructure, again, it's generally assets that are monopolistic either by regulation or by competitive dynamic.
想想美国的货运铁路，你根本没法新建一条。
You think about The US freight rails, you can't really build a new one.
因此，那里的竞争将来自自动驾驶卡车和其他新技术。
And so the competition there is gonna come from new technologies like autonomous trucks and other things.
想想机场，甚至是公用事业。
You think about things like airports, even utilities.
我的意思是，它们都是地方性垄断。
I mean, are local monopolies.
所以在基础设施领域，这种过度建设——比如在电力领域，迟早会发生。
So in infrastructure, that sort of overbuild, I mean, it would happen on the power side, and it will happen at some point.
看看北美页岩气管道发生了什么，对吧？
Look what happened with shale pipelines in North America, right?
在2010年，我们认为石油产量会大幅增加。
In 2010, we thought oil production was gonna go up a lot.
到2015年、2016年，我们建了很多管道，但石油价格却下跌了。
We built a lot of pipelines by 2015, 2016, and oil prices declined.
我们短期内并不需要所有这些管道，这造成了很多动荡。
We didn't need all those pipelines in the short term, caused a lot of turmoil.
所以直接回答你的问题，这是不可避免的。
And so to answer your question directly, can't avoid it.
但作为投资者，我们的工作是尽量避开它，理解市场何时在预期上变得过于狂热。
But we as investors, our job is to try to sidestep it, understand when's the market getting too excessive in terms of its expectations.
告诉我们现在的情况，2026年1月，聚焦于美国能源和美国能源基础设施领域。
Tell us about right now, January 2026, within the realm of say, US energy and US energy infrastructure.
我们都了解这些头条新闻，关于它们我们已经做过无数期节目了。
We all know the headlines, and we've done a million episodes on them.
电力需求巨大。
There's so much demand for electricity.
好吧。
Alright.
我明白这一点。
I get that point.
但具体谈谈我们现在看到了什么？
But talk to us specifically about what are we seeing right now?
你看到的数字是什么？
What is the math that you see out there?
也许可以先框架一下，比如在2024年1月或2025年1月，这场对话会有什么不同？
And maybe to frame it, like how would this conversation be different even in say January 2024 or January 2025?
完美。
Perfect.
那我们干脆不要从美国开始。
So let's actually let's not start with The US.
让我们从全球说起。
Let's start with the world.
好的。
Okay.
因为我觉得我们应该从最大的范围开始，然后再逐步深入。
Because I think it's let's start as big as we can go and then we can drill down.
过去六年里，很多人谈论全球能源需求，但我觉得他们的方式是错的。
A lot of people for the last six years, they talked about global energy demand, we think they did it the wrong way.
他们关注的是供应端，说政府有这些目标，或者我们设定全球变暖要达到某个水平。
They focused on the supply side where they said, Hey, the government has these targets, or we have this sort of goal to have global warming be XYZ.
这是为了实现那个世界，供应端需要呈现的样子。
This is what the supply would have to look like to satisfy that world.
而我们却问：为什么我们不从需求端开始呢？
And we said, Why don't we start with demand?
未来二十年，全球能源需求会是多少？
What do we think global energy demand is gonna be in the next two decades?
然后我们再思考如何满足这一需求。
Then let's figure out how we're gonna supply it.
所以全球能源需求，其实是一个相当简单的模型。
So global energy demand, it's a pretty easy model.
它大致由三个因素构成。
It's kind of three factors.
首先，你需要关注的是全球人口增长。
The first thing that you care about is global population growth.
在其他条件相同的情况下，人口越多，消耗的能源就越多。
All else equal, more people, more energy is consumed.
我说的不是石油或煤炭，而是总的能源消耗。
I'm not talking oil or coal, it's energy in aggregate.
其次，你需要考虑的是全球经济。
The second thing that you think about is the global economy.
经济规模越大，在其他条件相同的情况下，能源消耗也越多。
Bigger economy, all else equal, more energy consumption.
第三个因素比较复杂，那就是经济增长的能源强度。
The third one is pretty tricky and that's the energy intensity of economic growth.
也就是说，我们能多有效地将能源投入转化为单位经济产出？
And that is, hey, how good are we at converting an energy input into a unit of economic output?
几年前，我们提出：让我们试着长期预测这些因素。
So what we did a couple years ago is we said, hey, let's try to predict those things in the very long run.
首先是人口增长。
The first thing is, hey, population growth.
我们认为增长正在放缓，但仍然是正增长。
We think it's decelerating, but it's still positive.
因此到2040年，世界人口将比2024年多得多。
So in 2040, there's gonna be a lot more people in the world than there were in 2024.
经济增长，我们认为会放缓，但依然保持相当积极。
Economic growth, we think it's gonna slow but still be pretty positive.
以前可能是3%，现在是2.7%。
Maybe it used to be 3%, now it's 2.7.
这意味着能源需求增加。
That means more energy demand.
然后我们假设，我们会变得高效得多。
And then we said, Hey, let's assume we get a lot more energy efficient.
我们将更有效地利用和转化能源以促进经济增长。
We're gonna be a lot better at consuming and converting energy into economic growth.
两年前，这一假设显得很合理，因为政府政策在强制推动，消费者偏好也在推动，同时技术也在不断进步。
And that's a comfortable assumption two years ago because government policy was mandating it, consumer preferences were mandating it, and also technologies were getting better.
当这三者结合在一起时，你看到全球能源需求从大约178,000太瓦时——这是一个很大的数字——增长到2040年的220,000太瓦时。
When you put those three things together, what you saw was global energy demand rising from about 178,000 terawatt hours, which is a big number, but 178,000 to 220,000 in 2040.
这是全球能源需求的巨大增长。
That's a big increase in global energy demand.
而且，这仍然假设能源效率会有大幅提高。
And again, that assumes a big increase in energy efficiency.
那么，再深入一层，可再生能源在其中扮演什么角色？
So then you peel back one layer, how does renewables fit into this?
我们还希望减少煤炭消耗。
Well, we also wanna reduce coal consumption.
所以，如果你考虑一下，我们正从180增长到220，同时希望减少煤炭的消耗量。
So if you think about this, hey, we're going from 180 to two twenty, we wanna reduce the amount of coal we consume.
可再生能源方面，我们需要新增60,000太瓦时或55,000太瓦时的供电能力。
Renewables, we need to add 60,000 terawatt hours or 55,000 terawatt hours of supply.
这是一个巨大的数字。
It's a huge number.
这相当于在接下来的十六年里，重新构建整个已经存在了一百年的全球原油产业。
That's basically recreating the entire global crude oil industry that's been around for a hundred years in the next sixteen.
过去十二个月里发生了什么变化？
So what's changed in the last twelve months?
对2040年全球能源需求的预估已经上升。
That global energy demand assumption for 2040 has risen.
我们对能源强度下降的信心减弱了，因为许多经济增长都非常耗能。
Our confidence that we're getting less energy intense has gone down because a lot of this economic growth is very energy intensive.
因此，我们一直处在能源增量的世界中，需要生产更多的能源，而这正变得越来越成为能源行业的问题、挑战和机遇。
And so we've been in this energy addition world, this need to produce really more of everything, and it's only becoming more of an issue and a challenge and an opportunity for the energy industry.
艾什莉，这让我想起一件事。
Ashley, that reminds me.
我想问你一下，你能谈谈一些超大规模企业自身的脱碳举措吗？你是如何评估的？
I wanted to ask you, can you talk about the decarbonization initiatives from some of the hyperscalers themselves and how you're judging Yeah.
其中一些
Some of those
是的。
Yeah.
所以当你考虑能源时，有三个相互竞争的因素。
So there's sort of like three competing factors when you're thinking about energy.
一是你希望能源系统是稳定的，二是希望它是清洁的，三是希望有更多的能源。
So one is you want the energy system to be stable, you want it to be clean, and you want more of it.
我认为五年前，顺序是清洁、稳定、更多。
And I think five years ago, was clean, stable, more in that order.
我们希望有清洁的能源，希望它稳定，并且希望有更多的能源。
We want clean energy, we want it to be stable, and we want to have more.
但今天，这个顺序倒过来了，对吧？
Today, it's kind of flipped, right?
我们需要更多的能源，而且必须是稳定的。
We need more, it has to be stable.
但我们仍然希望它是清洁的，不能为了增加供应和确保稳定而牺牲清洁性。
And then we do want it to be clean, but we can't necessarily sacrifice the clean for the more and the stable part of it.
所以我认为每个人都是出于善意，并在做正确的事，比如努力淘汰最脏的能源，从煤炭转向天然气。
And so I think everybody is well intentioned and doing the right things, which is, hey, let's try to transition the dirtiest stuff away, move from coal into natural gas.
拥有大量资金的超大规模企业，应该尝试重新振兴核能经济。
Hyperscalers who have a lot of cash, let's try to re industrialize the nuclear economy.
继续投资小型模块化反应堆和现有核反应堆，让它们投入运行。
Let's continue to make investments in SMRs, in existing reactors, turning them on.
让我们推动地热能和其他能源的发展，总之，要增加供应。
Let's try to get more geothermal and other things in the, hey, let's get more of it.
确保能源供应的稳定性。
Let's make sure it's stable.
尽可能让它更清洁。
Let's make it as clean as possible.
一旦我们完成了基础设施建设，就可以开始逐步关停不需要的设施，真正依赖我们想要的能源。
And then once we've kind of gotten there on the build out, we can start to shut down the stuff we don't want and really just rely on the stuff that we do want.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
但同样，这三个因素已经发生了变化，我认为这真正改变了市场对能源行业应如何发展的看法。
But again, the the three factors have have changed, and I think that that's really shifted market perceptions on what the energy industry should look like.
他们是否承认这些变化发生了，还是说这些变化只是悄然发生，而他们根本不会发布任何新闻稿？但你知道，这究竟是怎么一回事呢？
Have they acknowledged that they've changed, or is this just a quiet they've changed, but we're not get they're certainly not putting press releases about But, you know, how is it just, I
我认为，实际情况比人们公开说的要更被认可一些。
think it's actually a little bit more acknowledged than people would say out loud.
我有时因为谈论某些具体股票而被指责，但有一家总部位于英国的大型能源公司，曾经走了一条路，然后又公开地转向了另一条路。
I get yelled at sometimes when I talk about specific stocks, but there's a UK based major energy company that went one way and then they've very publicly gone the other way.
我认为，当市场环境如此变化时，这种情况是正常的。
And I think that's normal when you see sort of market conditions shift like this.
随机问一个问题。
Random question.
到2040年，我们这个国家还会使用煤炭吗？
The year 2040, are we still gonna be using coal in this country?
在我们的模型中，我们的模型是全球性的。
In our model, our model's global.
所以，这个国家与世界相比。
So so this country versus the world.
让我们聚焦于世界。
Let's let's focus on the world.
到2040年，我们的煤炭供应或煤炭发电量将减少一半。
We have coal supply or sort of coal generation cut in half by 2040.
我觉得这很雄心勃勃。
I think that's ambitious.
我倒是希望它能归零。
I would hope that it was zero.
但那些务实的能源人士会说，全球范围内，煤炭将在很长一段时间内被依赖。
But the sort of energy pragmatists would say, hey, around the world, coal will be relied upon for a really long time.
它在能源市场中的占比将大幅降低，我们认为它会随着时间推移逐渐下降。
It will be a much lower percentage of energy markets, and we think it will sort of decline over time.
但再次强调，到2040年全球彻底淘汰煤炭，我认为可能性极低。
But again, the the idea of zero coal around the world by 2040, I think, is highly unlikely.
既然我们在讨论全球能源，谈谈你对中国的看法或预期吧，因为中国如今是无数头条新闻的焦点，这些新闻往往涉及极其庞大的数字，关于中国在扩大能源产能方面所做的事情？
Since we're talking about energy on a global scale, talk to us about what you're seeing or expecting out of China because this is the other source of a million headlines nowadays, or at least a million headlines with very, very large numbers in them about what China is doing in terms of building out its energy capacity?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为部分原因在于，当你思考全球地缘政治时，会想知道为什么有些地区比其他地区更积极地追求替代能源而非传统能源？
I think part of it is you think about the global geopolitics and you say like, well, why are some places more aggressively pursuing alternatives versus traditional?
为什么欧洲能发展出如此多的可再生能源？
And why did Europe do as much renewables as they did?
这其中很大一部分原因在于利用自身所拥有的资源或缺乏的资源。
And a lot of that has to do with taking advantage of what you're endowed with or not.
在北美，我们拥有丰富的天然气和原油，因此从成本角度看，我们投资可再生能源的需求与欧洲不同，因为欧洲是能源进口国。
So here in North America, we have plentiful natural gas and crude oil, and our need to invest in renewables from a cost perspective is different than Europe where they are an importer.
因此，从能源进口国转变为自给自足的关键，就是充分利用自身现有的资源。
And so the way to sort of convert from being an importer to self sufficient is to harness what you've got.
如果你拥有丰富的风能和太阳能，你就会倾向于大力投资这些领域。
If you've got a lot of wind and you've got a lot of sun, you're going to want to overinvest there.
我认为中国依赖全球供应能源，正努力减少这种依赖。
I think China depends on the world for energy supply and they're trying to reduce that.
他们希望更加独立。
And they want to be more independent.
他们正在全面投入核能。
They're going all in on nuclear.
他们在核能经济和煤炭发电上都投入了巨额资金，几乎涵盖了所有领域。
They're investing massive amounts in their nuclear economy, coal generation as well, kind of everything.
我认为这只是为了实现更大的自给自足。
And I think just an effort to be more self sufficient.
但这并不是中国特有的现象，对吧？
But that's not China specific, right?
如今，每个国家都在做类似的事情，试图在后疫情、后俄乌战争、地缘政治紧张加剧的世界中实现一定程度的自给自足。
That's kind of like every country right now is doing a similar thing and trying to be a little bit more self sufficient in a post COVID, post Russia Ukraine, rising geopolitical tension sort of world.
我对美国是否会迎来核能复兴持非常怀疑的态度。
I think I'm very skeptical that we're gonna have a nuclear renaissance in The US.
我的意思是，我知道有很多头条新闻，我确信其中有一些地方会重新启动。
Like, I know there's tons of headlines, and I'm sure there's a few of those places that are gonna get restarted.
我不是专家，这只是我的直觉。
I am not an expert, so it's it's just my gut.
我是不是想错了？
Is it am I off the mark?
你怎么说？
What do you say?
我们目前关注的是
Where where are we looking on
什么？
that?
所以我认为，这真的取决于你所说的‘核能复兴’是什么意思。
So I think it really depends on what you mean by a nuclear renaissance.
所以所以
So so
给个时间范围吧，杰克。
something Give us a time frame, Jack.
好吧。
Like, okay.
听我说，我干嘛要预测啊？
Here's my I don't even why am I making predictions?
我对这些东西一无所知。
I don't know anything about this stuff.
但我觉得，如果我在Polymarket上押注，那我可能会很惊讶。
But, like, I would be surprised if I'm on Polymarket or something.
我觉得不太可能有那种在佐治亚州刚刚投入运营的核电站吧？
I would imagine that there's not what's that plant in Georgia that came online?
沃格勒尔。
The Vogtle.
沃格勒尔核电站。
The Vogtle plant.
我觉得未来二十年不会再有另一个沃格勒尔了。
Like, don't think there's gonna be another Vogtle in the next twenty years.
我不同意。
I I disagree.
我会慢慢跟你解释为什么，但首先让我谈谈核能复兴——我说的是全球范围，而不仅仅是美国，当然我们也可以聊聊美国的情况。
I'll kinda talk you through why, but but let me let me tell you about what the nuclear renaissance and, I'm talking kinda global as opposed to just US, but we can definitely talk about US too.
所以再退一步说。
So take another step.
正如你所见，我喜欢经常退后一步看问题。
I like to take a lot of step backs as you can tell.
我们要谈的是整个银河系。
We're gonna talk about the galaxy wide.
我们要走远了。
We're gonna go away.
不不，这次对话不涉及太空中的数据中心。
No no data centers in space in this conversation.
我保证。
I promise.
不。
No.
实际上，我现在觉得这是个好问题。
Actually, I've now that's a good one.
我想问你关于
I'll ask you about
这一点，稍后再说。
that at some point.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
那我们为什么在谈论核能呢？
So why why are we talking about nuclear?
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
这很简单。
It's pretty simple.
你可以把世界分为传统能源和替代能源。
You break the world into traditional and alternative.
传统能源的好处，比如天然气和煤炭，就是它能24小时不间断供电，但问题是它的排放特性是我们不希望看到的。
Good thing about traditional, so things like natural gas and coal, is it's reliable 247365 Unfortunately, it has the emissions profile we don't like.
替代能源，比如风能和太阳能，具有我们想要的低排放特性，但它的供电是间歇性且不稳定的。
Alternatives, let's just call it wind and solar, has the emissions profile we want, but it's intermittent and variable.
如果你是一家数据中心的首席执行官，你今天对自己的业务感觉不错，但你可能会因为担心停电而半夜惊醒，对吧？
If you're a data center CEO, you're feeling pretty good about your business today, you kind of wake up with night sweats about the power going out, right?
你不能断电。
You cannot lose power.
你有一个昂贵的金属外壳，用于冷却服务器并提供电力和能源。
You have a very expensive metal shell that's cooling servers and providing electricity and energy.
这意味着，嘿，我不能接受间歇性供电。
Which means, hey, I can't take the intermittency.
我必须使用基荷电力。
I've gotta use the baseload.
核能是少数能够兼顾两者需求的资源之一。
Nuclear is sort of the one resource that can kind of serve both masters.
它能够24/7持续运行，可变成本低，容量因子高，而且相当清洁。
It is 20 fourseventhree 65, low variable cost, very high capacity factor, and it's also pretty clean.
这就是我们谈论核能的原因。
And so that's kind of why we're talking about nuclear.
几个月前你曾提到过一个关于核电池的案例。
There was an episode maybe a couple months ago where you said, hey, nuclear batteries.
是的。
Yeah.
我本来正想问你同样的问题
I'd rather I was about to ask you the same question
实际上，塞思。
actually, Seth.
这完全关乎能源存储。
I mean, it's all about energy storage.
是的。
Yeah.
整个事情就是，嘿。
The whole thing is like, hey.
我该如何储存能源，以便在需要时使用？
How do I store energy to use it when I want it?
煤炭本质上是一种能源电池。
Like, coal is effectively an energy battery.
嗯。
Mhmm.
天然气是一种能量电池。
Natural gas is an energy battery.
目前还没有可行的电池技术来储存风能和太阳能。
There's just no batteries for wind and solar that are viable today.
但我非常希望解决这个问题，这会在很多方面带来帮助。
But I'd love to solve that problem, and that would that would help in a lot of ways.
但让我们回到核能复兴的话题。
But back to the nuclear renaissance.
你没法把太阳能握在手里。
Can't hold solar energy in your hand.
确实不行。
You can't.
我真希望可以。
I wish you could.
也许有一天你能，但我们认为这还需要相当长的时间。
Maybe one day you will, but we think it's going take quite a while to do that.
好的。
Okay.
所以是核能复兴。
So the nuclear renaissance.
在过去二十年里，全球一直在关闭核能发电能力。
We've been shutting down nuclear generation capacity around the world for the last two decades.
所以第一步是
So step one is
包括在以阳光充足著称的德国。
Including in famously sunny Germany.
到处都是。
Everywhere.
所以第一步就是，别再关闭了。
So so step one is like, let's just not shut it down.
我们认为这场球赛已经进行到第七局了。
We think we're in, like, the seventh inning of that ballgame.
我们的意思是，我们不会再关闭它了。
Like, we're we're not shutting it down.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一些事情。
It's some it's something.
是的。
Yeah.
所以第二阶段是，我们能不能重新启动最近关闭的那些设施？
So so phase two is like, well, can we turn on any of the stuff that we recently turned off?
你知道的。
You know?
我们正处于这场比赛的第五局。
We're we're in, like, the fifth inning of that game.
我认为这正从缓慢流失转变为停滞，然后缓慢增长。
I think that sort of is going from a slow bleed to, hey, flatten and then slow growth.
所以未来几年的重点是重启三哩岛和其他地方的设施。
So the next couple years are about, hey, turning on 3 Mile Island and other places.
第三阶段，我认为我们现在处于第二或第三局，将会开始看到一些加速，那就是厂区内核设施的扩建。
Phase three, which would be I think we're in the second and third inning, and we're gonna start to see some acceleration here would be this sort of brownfield inside the fence nuclear facility build out.
嘿，你要担心邻避问题、场地供应、安保和安全。
Hey, you worry about NIMBY issues, site supply, security, safety.
我认为这里也已经讨论过这些问题了。
I think that's been talked about here as well.
我们确实认为这些将会开始加速推进。
We do think that that's gonna start to pick up.
但这些设施预计要到2032到2035年才能投入运营。
But that's like a 2,032 to 2035 in service.
然后我们谈论小型模块化反应堆、钍以及其他机会。
And then we talk about SMRs and thorium and other opportunities.
我认为这些会实现，但那是在2035到2040年之间。
I think that'll happen, but it's like 2035 to 2040.
所以对我来说，这仍然是一个复兴。
So that's still a renaissance to me.
我们正在采取一种我们原本任其缓慢融化的东西，现在我们正在重新冻结它，然后加以建设。
We're we're taking something that we were sort of allowing to slowly melt, and we're sort of refreezing it, and then we're building it.
这没什么问题。
And that's that's okay.
只需回答是或否。
Just yes or no.
到2040年，在美国，我们会看到你们启动一个Polymarket合约吗？
By the year 2040 in The United States, will we see You guys are gonna start a polymarket contract.
是的。
Yeah.
我
I
我们会再投一次票吗？
will we get another vote?
我有这个东西，
I've got this,
比如，内部下注，所以我必须说 yes。
like, internal bet, so I have to say yes.
真的吗？
Really?
但有个前提。
But there is a caveat.
没有任何公用事业公司会自己做这件事。
No utility will do it themselves.
是的。
Yeah.
我可以说，公用事业公司愿意说‘嘿’的可能性为零。
There is, I'd say, zero chance that a utility will say, hey.
我们愿意建设一个没有任何成本超支风险的全新核设施。
We're willing to do a greenfield new nuclear facility with no cost overrun risk.
但我认为成本超支的风险将由政府承担。
But I think the cost overrun risk will get covered by the government.
所以我们开始看到一些这样的情况。
So we're starting to see some of this stuff.
我们在自然资源经济的各个领域都看到了这种现象，对吧？
We're seeing it across the natural resources economy, right?
美国政府正在直接持股，并对关键矿物和资源采取更加直接的干预措施。
Where the US government is taking direct equity stakes and they're having a more directly interventionist approach to all of critical minerals and resources.
如果我是能源沙皇，我会怎么做？
So what would I do if I was sort of the energy czar?
我会说：我是美国政府。
I would say, hey, I'm the US government.
我会为美国各地的10个核电机组提供担保，承担成本超支的风险。
I'm going to backstop, guarantee cost overrun risk for 10 nuclear generation facilities across The US.
我会确保它们顺利建成。
I'm going make sure they get built.
我会承担超额成本的负担。
I'm going to sort of shoulder the excess cost burden.
然后也许到最后，我会把它卖给出价最高的人。
And then maybe at the end of this, I'm just going to sell it to the highest bidder.
所以我们来随便编个数字吧。
So let's just make up the numbers.
也许美国政府做这件事要花费1000亿美元。
Maybe it costs $100,000,000,000 for the US government to do that.
也许这10个设施最终以500亿美元售出，纳税人因此损失了500亿美元。
Maybe those 10 facilities get sold for $50,000,000,000 and the taxpayer has taken a $50,000,000,000 loss.
但这样一来，我们拥有了10个新的发电设施，提供廉价且清洁的能源。
But here we've got 10 new generators providing sort of cheap and clean energy.
也许它们能以150美元的价格售出，实际上还能帮助缓解赤字问题。
Maybe they can sell it for $150 and actually sort of help the deficit situation.
但再次强调，回答你的问题，我认为这一定会发生。
But so again, to answer your question, I think it's going to happen.
但我的一个关键观点是，这件事不会单独发生。
But I mean, one of my key messages, it's not going to happen alone.
这些供应链不会仅仅因为市场力量而形成。
Like these supply chains are not going to come about because of market forces.
你没有看到铜产量的反应。
You're not seeing a reaction in copper production.
你没有看到铀矿开采的反应。
You're not seeing a reaction in uranium mining.
如果没有政府的直接介入——虽然‘介入’这个词有点负面含义，但指的是政府的直接推动——你不会看到核能发电的反应。
You're not seeing a reaction in nuclear generation without direct government sort of intervention has a little bit of a negative connotation, but direct government catalyst.
你知道吗？
You know?
而且我认为这将会发生，我们已经开始看到了。
And and I but I think that that's gonna happen, and we're starting to see it.
这让我想起了。
This reminds me.
我查了下新闻报道中提及公私合作的次数图表，确实从2024年底到2025年出现了激增。
I did pull up the chart of the number of times public and private partnerships are being mentioned in news stories and, yeah, spiking into late twenty twenty four and 2025.
所以我们正在
So we're we're
我们回来了。
We're back.
我们回来了。
We're back.
但好吧。
But okay.
再跟我们多讲讲。
Talk to us a little bit more.
为什么市场信号对铀这样的东西不起作用？
Why doesn't the market, like, signal work for something like uranium?
你之前也提到了铜。
Or you mentioned copper as well.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，老实说，这些市场一直被投资者忽视，而公司仍因增加资本支出和增加供应而受到惩罚。
I think, honestly, these are sort of markets that have been sort of forgotten by investors, and companies are still being penalized for increasing CapEx and increasing supply.
所以这有点像页岩气的故事。
So So it's kind of the shale story that
那种故事。
sort of story.
所以你看去年年底，一些主要矿业公司谈到了他们2026年的资本支出。
So so you look at sort of at the end of last year, some of the major mining companies talked about their twenty twenty six CapEx.
大多数公司的资本支出预期都下调了，或者至少低于市场共识。
Most of them sort of cut CapEx expectations or at least relative to consensus came in below.
这很奇怪。
And that's weird.
对吧？
Right?
铜价创历史新高。
Copper prices all time highs.
金价创历史新高。
Gold prices all time highs.
矿企难道不应该增加资本支出，推动我们之前讨论过的供应响应吗？
Shouldn't the miners be increasing their CapEx and inviting that supply response we talked about earlier?
投资者直接反抗。
The investors just revolt.
他们说：不干了。
They say, no mas.
我们
We
他们想要的是纪律。
They want the discipline.
你已经摧毁了太多价值。
You've destroyed so much value.
他们确实这么做了，对吧？
And they did, right?
页岩油气在2010到2020年间摧毁了大量价值。
Shale destroyed a lot of value 2010 to 2020.
所以这种情况不会自然发生。
And so it's not gonna happen naturally.
也许这没关系，因为这些管理团队确实应该继续坚持纪律，但我们确实需要增加供应。
And maybe that's okay because these management teams, I mean, they should continue to be held to the discipline, but we do need the supply.
所以这就是我认为政府会试图推动它的原因。
And so that's why I think that the government is going to try to get it moving.
我们已经看到了一些例子。
And we've seen examples of that.
对吧？
Right?
去年你看到了一些稀土方面的举措，去年也有锂相关的动作，当然还有去年年底宣布的大型核电合同等强力支持措施。
You saw some rare earth stuff last year, lithium stuff last year, obviously the big nuclear backstop of contracts and so forth that was announced in the end of last year.
很多方面还没有明确定义，但我们会逐渐对这些事情有更清晰的界定。
A lot of it is not well defined, but we're gonna start to get some more definition behind this stuff.
你不能责怪股东。
You can't blame the shareholders.
我的意思是，这一定让人很沮丧。
I mean, it must be so sick.
这些价格简直飞涨到天上去了。
You have these prices shooting through the moon.
都这样了，为什么不直接拿现金呢？
It's like, why not just take the cash?
你知道，我是从长期股东的角度来看待这个问题的，作为股东。
You know, I mean, as a long term oriented shareholder As a shareholder.
作为股东。
A shareholder.
我觉得，话说回来，在当前的价格水平下，许多项目的回报其实相当可观。
You know, I think, listen, at these prices, returns on a lot of projects actually look pretty good.
但你会担心政府政策的变化，以及供应的反应。
But you worry about administration changes and you worry about the supply response.
老实说，这些公司长期以来表现得很差。
And honestly, these companies did really poorly for a long time.
所以，电子表格的计算可能会说：嘿，重新开始钻探吧。
And so the spreadsheet math might say, Hey, start drilling again.
但根据历史经验，回报率需要好得多，才能证明这样做是合理的。
But the sort of history would say, no, no, the returns need to be way better to justify that.
我认为这是投资者群体的一种理性反应。
And I think it's a rational response by the investor base.
但我认为第一步是，人们需要重新关注旧经济领域，但其实这些属于新经济范畴。
But I think step one is like people need to start looking at the, again, the old economy stuff again, but it's the new economy stuff.
人们需要关注自然资源类股票。
People need to be looking at natural resources stocks.
他们需要关注基础设施类股票。
They need be looking at infrastructure stocks.
他们需要对这些公司提供资本感到有信心。
They need to be feeling good about them providing capital to these companies.
然后你才会看到供应的反应。
And then you will get that supply response.
再次强调，这还处于周期的早期阶段。
Again, it's early in the cycle.
关于自然资源和投资者的犹豫不决，我们是在1月6日录制的。
On the topic of natural resources and maybe investor reluctance, we're recording this on January 6.
而市场上最大的新闻当然是委内瑞拉上周末发生的事情。
And the big news in the markets is, of course, what happened over the weekend in Venezuela.
我确定这并不是你的专业领域。
I'm sure that's not your particular area of expertise.
但作为基础设施投资者，当你看到委内瑞拉这样的地方，听说他们需要数十亿美元的资金时
But, you know, as an infrastructure investor, investor, when you look at a place like Venezuela where we hear they need billions of dollars of capital
一些估算。
some estimates.
要让石油行业恢复运转，你对这种情况怎么看？
To get the oil industry up and running, what do you think about that situation?
嗯。
Yeah.
让我从投资者的角度来谈谈，你会怎么看待这个问题。
So let me just talk about it strictly from like an investor perspective and how you would sort of think about that.
作为基础设施投资者，我们非常关注一种很少有人花时间考虑的风险。
Being an infrastructure investor, we care a lot about one risk that very few people spend a lot of time on.
所以，如果我说，泰勒，你提到数据中心的首席执行官会因为停电而彻夜难眠。
So so if were to say, hey, Tyler, you talked about the data center CEO staying up at night for losing power.
那什么让你夜不能寐？
What keeps you up at night?
对我们来说，是监管风险，对吧？
For us, it's regulatory risk, right?
你投资的是机场、公用事业这类受监管机构管理的项目。
You're investing in airports and utilities and things like that that are governed by a regulator.
我们担心意外情况。
We worry about surprise.
而在这里，你会遇到监管方面的意外，对吧？
And you get regulatory surprise here, right?
看看伊利诺伊州公用事业公司发生了什么。
You look at what happens with utilities in Illinois.
看看FERC如何变化，它们正在调整一些规则。
You look at what's happening with FERC and as they sort of change things.
所以我们花了很多时间在——
So we spend a lot of time on-
我对伊利诺伊州的公用事业一无所知。
I don't know anything about utilities in Illinois.
比如，公用事业公司投入了一些资本支出，然后说：我们希望获得更高的回报。
Well, like, hey, the utilities spent some CapEx and they said, hey, we want a higher return.
我们希望把这些纳入我们的费率基础。
We want to get that in our rate base.
监管机构直接说不。
And the regulator just says no.
所以你谈到我们实地投资的情况。
And so you talk about our boots on the ground investing.
努力确保我们在其他人之前就理解那些非常难以厘清的问题。
Trying to make sure that we understand those very difficult things to figure out before everybody else does.
再拿委内瑞拉来说。
So take it to Venezuela.
如果我要在委内瑞拉进行大规模的基础设施和资源类外商直接投资，我一定会非常非常想弄清楚与此相关的法律框架。
Like if I was to make a large foreign direct investment there from an infrastructure and resources perspective, I would really, really want to understand the legal constructs surrounding that.
而在政权更迭的背景下，这真的非常具有挑战性。
And that's really challenging in the midst of regime change.
因此，我非常乐观。
And so I'm very hopeful.
我认为每个人都会说，我们希望事情能尽快得到解决。
Like I think everybody would say, Hey, we're hopeful that things get resolved quickly.
然后你就很快把一切都弄明白了。
And then you sort of figure it all out very fast.
但我认为，在你真正看到一些投资之前，还需要一段时间。
But it's going to take a while, I think, before you actually start to see some investments.
因为作为基础设施投资者，被征收或国有化的风险非常高。
Because as an infrastructure investor, the risk of expropriation nationalization is very high.
所以你不想突然发现自己的资产被困在那里。
And so you don't want to go and suddenly see your assets stranded there.
所以也许这回答了你的问题。
So maybe that answers your question.
但同样，很多问题都在于理解法规、法律以及政治局势等。
But again, a lot of it is about understanding regulation and law and what's happening in politics and so forth.
嗯，我也很好奇。
Well, I'm also curious.
我的意思是，特朗普总统显然对重建基础设施以及美国公司参与其中的机会非常兴奋。
I mean, we had President Trump is obviously very excited about the opportunities to rebuild that infrastructure and for American companies to come in and be part of that.
但石油，西德克萨斯，现在每桶57美元。
But oil, West Texas, it's at $57 a barrel.
撇开委内瑞拉明显高度不确定的监管环境不谈，我不明白在57美元的价格下，什么项目能盈利。
Setting aside the obvious highly uncertain regulatory environment of Venezuela, I don't know what pencils out at 57.
我很好奇，你提到在2010年代，反管道政治盛行。
I'm curious, you mentioned pipelines during the 2010s, there's a lot of anti pipeline politics.
我假设当前政府对管道建设的态度要宽松得多。
I assume that the current administration is much more green light for pipelines.
但在这种价格下，谁还愿意新建管道呢？
But who wants to build new pipelines at these prices?
是的。
Yeah.
我用一个我最喜欢的缩写，但我得感谢保罗·桑基在桑基研究公司首创了这个说法。
I'll use my favorite acronym, but I've got to give credit to Paul Sankey at Sankey Research because he's the one that coined it.
十年前，我们处在一个‘别在我家后院’的世界里。
So a decade ago, we had a NIMBY world, which is not in my backyard.
那个世界转变成了一个疯狂的世界。
That world transitioned to a bananas world.
疯狂的意思是，任何地方都别想建任何东西。
Bananas is build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything.
对吧？
Right?
所以这个疯狂的世界从2018年左右持续到2024年。
So the bananas world existed from like 2018 to 2024.
当我提到疯狂的世界时，指的是基础设施建设的能力。
And when I say bananas world, that's about the ability to build infrastructure.
好的。
Okay.
那里再也没有其他疯狂的事了。
There's not any any other bananas out there.
对吧？
Right?
这确实感觉正在发生一些变化，因为华盛顿方面开始展现出更多确定性，并且更愿意推动基础设施建设。
That does feel like it's changing a little bit in that, hey, there's starting to be a little bit more sort of certainty and sort of based in DC desire to build stuff.
因此，你开始看到一些管道建设活动重新升温。
And so you're starting to see a little bit of pipeline construction activity heating back up.
我们曾经处于这样一个世界：我们永远不会在北美再建造任何管道。
We went from a world where, hey, we're never going to build another pipeline in North America.
我认为这种情况正在改变。
I think that's changing.
它将比2010到2015年时更加务实。
It's going be a lot more pragmatic than it was in 2010 to 2015.
但你开始看到这种愿意进行这些投资的倾向。
But you're starting to see this sort of willingness to make these investments.
但同样，这源于这种
But again, it comes because this sort of
但他们算过账了吗？
But did they math out?
在当前价格下，哪条管道是经济可行的？
What pipeline is economical at current prices?
这完全取决于客户愿意支付多少。
It's all a function of what the customer is willing to pay.
如果你的天然气价格在每单位三美元以上，而且原油价差很大以及其他因素的话。
And if you've got natural gas prices in the high threes, and if you've got wide oil differentials and other things.
我们今天看到的许多管道项目都是为数据中心供应天然气的管道。
A lot of the pipeline activity that we're seeing today is natural gas pipelines feeding the data centers.
他们愿意支付的费用相当高。
Their willingness to pay is pretty high.
因此，我们现在所处的并不是一个原油管道的世界。
And so that's really where we're it's not an oil pipeline world today.
而是一个天然气管道的世界。
It's a natural gas pipeline world.
我们从‘我们连香蕉都没有’变成了‘好的’。
We go from we have no bananas to yes.
我们没有香蕉。
We have no bananas.
我喜欢这个。
I love that.
我曾经
I've
没听说过香蕉。
never heard bananas before.
请欣赏我那些十九世纪二十年代的文化梗。
Please enjoy my nineteen twenties cultural references there.
回到美国能源和电力话题。
Going back to US energy and electricity.
再说一遍，每个头条或每个人都说，你知道的，我们有芯片。
Again, every headline or every one person is like, you know, we have the chips.
我们还有其他各种东西。
We have the etcetera.
能源是瓶颈。
Energy is the bottleneck.
你一遍又一遍地听到这种说法。
You hear that over and over again.
我想詹森·朗今天在那场CS演讲中又提到了这一点。
And I think Jensen Long said that again today in that CS.
能源是瓶颈。
Energy is the bottleneck.
但我们所有人都知道这一点。
Except we all know this.
对吧？
Right?
所以在我看来，这一切都已经反映在价格里了。
So in my mind, it's like, oh, it's all priced in.
但作为投资者，你觉得能源故事中哪些部分仍然被低估了？
But as an investor, what parts of this energy story do you still feel underappreciated?
或者，在所有人都知道电力受限这一事实的情况下，还有哪些机会存在？
Or where are there still opportunities in a story where there's literally anyone is aware of this fact, the electricity constraints?
是的。
Yeah.
所以，我想从我们达成共识开始：电力确实受限。
So I I'd start with we agree electricity is constrained.
需求将持续上升。
The demand is gonna keep rising.
我要指出，这不仅仅是数据中心的问题。
I would note it's not just data centers.
我们花了很多时间思考美国能源市场，从2000年到2017年，电力需求增长为零，但最近却增长了
Like, we spend a lot of time thinking about US energy markets, and they went from zero growth in terms of electricity demand from 2000 They've and seven to 20 been
增长
growing
约1.5%。
like 1.5% recently.
我们认为它将每年增长2.5%。
We think it's gonna go to 2.5% per year.
这个数字看起来不大，但在一个大型工业系统中，从0%增长到2.5%却是巨大的变化。
Doesn't seem like a big number, but going from 0% to 2.5% in a big industrial system is a huge one.
其中只有一半左右是数据中心的需求。
Only about half of it is data centers.
电动汽车和工业系统等领域的电力需求也在大幅增加。
There's lots of electricity demand coming from EVs and from the industrial system and so forth.
但我们在哪里看到机会呢？
But where do we see the opportunity?
我会从某些公用事业公司开始说起。
I'd start with certain utilities.
如今，公用事业公司的估值倍数实际上低于几年前的水平。
So utilities today actually trade at a lower multiple than they did a few years ago.
而它们的增长率比过去略高一些。
And growth rates are a little bit higher than they used to be.
所以这看起来有点奇怪。
So that's like a little bit of an odd thing to see.
然而，我们认为，普通公用事业公司可能会面临可负担性和监管方面的挑战，但最优秀的公用事业公司并没有比平均公司高出太多市盈率，而它们的增长率差异要好得多。
However, what we think is, hey, the average utility is gonna see some challenges from affordability issues and from regulation, but the best utilities are not trading at a lot higher multiple than the average utility, and their growth rate differential is way better.
所以用一些数字来说明，八年前，你需要支付11%的溢价才能获得1%更好的增长。
So to put some numbers around it, eight years ago, you had to pay an 11% premium to get 1% better growth.
因此，平均公用事业板块的增长率为6%。
So the average utility group was going to grow six.
顶级公用事业公司的增长率为7%。
Best in class utility was going to grow seven.
为了这笔交易，你必须支付高出11%的市盈率。
You had to pay an 11% higher multiple for that trade.
如今，增长最快的公用事业公司仅比平均值贵6%。
Today, the fastest growing utilities only trade 6% more expensive.
所以实际上相对于平均值来说更便宜。
So actually cheaper relative to the average.
它们的增长将高出2%。
They're going to grow 2% more.
所以不再是6.5，而是8.5。
So instead of 6.5, it's gonna be 8.5.
这挺奇怪的，对吧？
That's pretty odd, right?
你支付的绝对估值倍数更低了。
You're paying lower absolute multiples.
但你有什么理论解释吗？
Do have a theory for what though?
我认为人们担心监管问题。
I think people are worried about regulation.
我认为人们担心利率上升。
I think people are worried about rising interest rates.
他们担心可负担性问题。
They're worried about affordability.
在未来三年里，你会看到行业格局将逐渐分化。
And what you're gonna see is the pack will separate over the next three years.
因此，从公用事业的角度来看，世界以目前这种方式压缩是合理的。
So it's rational that sort of the world has compressed in the way that it has from a utility perspective.
但我认为，随着时间推移，那些能够有效执行的公司将获得丰厚回报。
But I think over time, those that are able to execute will really be rewarded.
除此之外，比如数据中心和再工业化建设中的‘卖铲人’类公司，我们仍然看到大量机会。
Outside that, I mean, the picks and shovels types companies to the data center and reindustrialization build out, we still see a lot of opportunity.
估值倍数有所上升，但它们正变得更具可预测性。
And multiples are up, but they are becoming more predictable.
它们的增长率正在加速。
Their growth rates are accelerating.
这具有更深层的结构性特征。
It's more structural in nature.
这些公司具体是哪些？
Who are some of those companies?
我提到了卡特彼勒，但这就像
I mentioned Caterpillar, but that's like
是的，那些参与大型基础设施建设的工程和建筑公司肯定属于这一类。
Yeah, mean, the engineering and construction companies that are help building the large scale infrastructure and so forth would definitely fall in that bucket.
我们关注一些像铝冶炼厂这样的公司。
We look at some of the companies that are like aluminum smelters and so forth.
与几十年前相比，这些行业如今高度集中。
Again, these are highly consolidated industries relative to where they were a couple decades ago.
所以这就像淘金热。
And so this is like, it's the gold rush.
淘金热中谁赚了大钱？
Who made all the money in the gold rush?
是那些
It was
卖牛仔裤和工具的公司。
the Levi's and the picks and shovels companies.
而且
And
我有点觉得
I kind of
我们认为我们正处于这个阶段。
think that's where we are.
你可能在一些直接参与的方式中获得最高的绝对回报，但它们也可能伴随着更大的波动性。
You might get the best absolute returns in some of the direct ways to play this, but they might come with a lot more volatility.
我们认为，至少在风险调整后的回报方面，更优的是卖铲子和镐的公司。
And we think the sort of at least risk adjusted returns are more in the picks and shovels.
说到波动性，快速提一下，去年数据中心领域发生了一件有趣的事：CME发生了大规模中断，原因是名为CyrusOne的运营商所运营的一个数据中心出现故障。
Speaking of volatility, very quickly, one of the interesting things that happened last year in data center world was we had that big outage at the CME, which was the result of an outage at one particular data center that was run by an operator called, I wanna say CyrusOne.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得是
Think that's
名字。
the name.
嗯。
Yeah.
你知道，你提到过那位CEO深夜为这种情景担忧。
You know, you talked about the CEO staying up late at night worrying about exactly this scenario.
但作为基础设施投资者，你是否也需要担心运营风险呢？
But do you, as an investor in the infrastructure, have to worry about operational risk as well?
那你们究竟如何评估这种风险呢？
And then how do you actually assess that?
嗯。
Yeah.
我们确实会。
We we do.
我的意思是，以管道为例，这是最好的例子。
I mean, let's use pipelines as, like, the best example.
对吧？
Right?
如果你拥有一家拥有石油管道的公司，而它们发生了石油泄漏，那就是一个大问题。
If you own a company that owns oil pipelines and they have an oil spill, like that is a big problem.
所以我们经常被问到：你们如何看待ESG，以及如何整合ESG等等？
So we get a lot of questions on, hey, how do you think about ESG and integrate ESG and so forth?
我们做的一件关键事情是思考激励机制，评估这些公司如何维护其资产，它们与当地股东的关系如何，以及它们所拥有和运营的资产的可靠性如何。
And one of the key things that we do is we think about the incentives and we think about how these companies are doing maintaining their assets and what their local shareholder relationships are like and what the integrity of what they own and operate are.
因为确实，对于基础设施而言，运营风险伴随着重大的资产减值风险。
Because yeah, with infrastructure, operational risks have major asset impairment risks with them.
因此，对我们来说，这是一个遍布全球的庞大团队，努力做我们能做的事——不是去和CEO交谈，而是去和工厂经理以及更低一层的管理人员交流，询问一位CEO对另一家公司资产的看法，它们是否维护良好，试图从中获得一些洞察，因为这确实是一个关键风险，是我们担忧的问题。
And so again, for us, it's this big team around the world trying to do what we can to talk to not the CEO, but the plant managers and the sort of next rung down and ask one CEO what he thinks about the assets of another company and are they maintaining them well and try to get some insights there because, yeah, it's a it's a key risk, something that that we worry about.
所以，从DC的角度来看，我们可以说已经进入了一个‘后香蕉时代’，我认为政府显然对批准各种项目持更加宽松的态度。
So we're kind of in a post banana world in the sense that from the DC perspective, you know, I think the administration clearly has a much more liberal attitude towards approving various things.
但另一方面，正如我们最近在节目中多次讨论的，地方上的反对情绪，特别是针对数据中心，突然间人们对此非常焦虑。
On the other hand, and we've talked about this recently on the show quite a bit, the local backlash, particularly to data centers, suddenly people are really anxious about that.
我们看到这些市政会议视频走红，其中充斥着关于它们的错误信息。
We see these town hall meetings going viral, and there's misinformation about their something.
当你想到那些快速增长的公用事业公司时，它们或许存在机会，因为它们的股价并未反映出其增长潜力。
When you think about, like, the utilities that are the rapidly growing ones, the ones for whom there's perhaps an opportunity because they don't trade at a premium that is consistent with their growth potential.
你是否担心这方面的问题？你是否会花很多时间思考：虽然纸上计划显示这里将建设大量设施，但在地方政治的现实面前，这些计划真的能落地吗？
Do you worry about that aspect, and do you do much time thinking about, like, yes, on paper, we know there's tons of plans to build more here, etcetera, but will it actually happen given the realities of local politics?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，首先，数据中心遭遇了大量反对，这是否合理？
I mean, I'd start with there's been a lot of data center backlash, and is it appropriate or not?
我的意思是，有些公用事业公司的账单去年上涨了15%。
I mean, there are some utilities whose bills went up 15% last year.
是的。
Yeah.
当你想到一家数据中心公司时，它在当地市场并不会创造任何就业机会。
So and when you think about a data center company, that doesn't create any jobs in the local market.
我的意思是，确实有建筑工作，但一旦数据中心投入运行，它就只是一个空荡荡的壳子，里面只有制冷和电力设备。
Mean, there's construction jobs, but then once the data center's running, it's just kind of like a big empty shell with some refrigeration and some power.
你并没有真正为当地经济做出多少贡献。
And you're not really doing a lot for the local economy.
所以，那些账单上涨了15%的普通居民客户，却看不到当地因此有任何经济收益，这自然会促使监管机构合理地回应：嘿，这其实不符合我们的最佳利益。
So your sort of local residential customer who's paying 15% more and and is not seeing any sort of economic benefit to the local area from that, that is inviting a reasonable response from the regulator to say, hey, we actually it's not in our best interest to do this.
因此，我们花了很多时间研究公用事业委员会的成员构成。
And so we spend a lot of time on who is on the utility commissions.
他们是民选的还是任命的？
Are they elected or they appointed?
因为这很重要。
Because that can matter.
账单压力有多大？
What has been the bill pressure?
我理解民选的委员更倾向于？
I take it the elected ones are more sensitive towards?
在其他条件相同的情况下，你所说的民选委员会，他们希望能够连任。
All else equal, an elected commission, you're saying, hey, they want to stay elected.
因此，他们会做更多有利于当地选民的事情，而政府任命或州长任命的人可能会说：我知道电费可能会涨一点，但我们确实想吸引这种投资。
And so they're going do things that are more beneficial to the local electorate than someone that's government appointed or governor appointed who would maybe do something that's, Hey, I know the bills might go up a little bit, but we actually want to invite this.
我的意思是，要衡量一下这个机会的规模。
I mean, to put the magnitude of the opportunity.
中西部有一家公用事业公司。
So there's a utility in the Midwest.
它已经存在了大约一百年。
It's been around for about a hundred years.
目前它的系统容量约为11吉瓦。
It currently has a system that's about 11 gigawatts.
一吉瓦大约相当于一百万人的用电量。
So one gigawatt is about a million people.
这就像丹佛市的规模。
It's like the city of Denver.
所以这个中西部的公用事业公司，11吉瓦的容量，花了大约一百年才达到这个规模。
So this Midwest utility, 11 gigawatts, took about a hundred years to get there.
他们目前需要建设15吉瓦的数据中心需求。
They currently have data center demand to build 15 gigawatts.
哇哦。
Woah.
想想看。
Think about that.
对吧？
Right?
一百年前，什么是
A hundred years ago What's
名字？
the name?
我想查一下。
I wanna look this up.
是哪个公用事业公司？
What what utility is it?
你能
Can you
我老是被骂
I I get yelled at
好吧。
by Fine.
我们来查一下。
We'll we'll we'll look it up.
分开查吧。
Look it up separately.
我们会使用数据驱动的AI平台来找出答案。
We'll use data powered AI platforms to figure it out.
对。
Yeah.
如果我给出太多具体的股票，他们会踢我桌子底下。
They'll kick me under the table if I give too many specific stocks.
但不，就想想这个。
But no, just think about that.
一百年前是11，到明天他们又想要15。
A hundred years ago to 11, and by tomorrow they want another 15.
这真的非常昂贵。
That is really expensive.
所以你看到了这种紧张态势，我觉得这是合理的。
And so you're seeing this tension, and I think that's that's reasonable.
你玩过《Power Grid》吗？
Do you play Power Grid ever?
你了解这个游戏吗？
Do you know that game?
没有。
No.
但我感觉我应该玩。
But I feel like I should.
这是一款桌游。
It's a board game.
它是一款
It's a
一款你负责为各个城市供电的桌游。
board game where you're in charge of supplying electricity to various cities.
挺有趣的。
Kind of fun.
我玩过《瘟疫危机》这款游戏，大概是十九年底吧，你看看那导致了什么。
I I played the the board game pandemic in, like, late nineteen, and and look what that led to.
所以也许我有点害怕。
So maybe I'm a little bit scared.
这都是你的错。
It was your fault.
那我们就玩一下《Power Grid》，然后我们都能享受一个高效的电力系统。
Well, play power grid, and then we can all enjoy an efficient electricity system.
也许事情会发生变化。
Maybe maybe things will change.
这是一场很棒的对话。
That was a great conversation.
泰勒·罗森利克，非常感谢你做客《Odd Lod》。
Tyler Rosenlick, thank you so much for, coming on Odd Lod.
让我们保持联系。
So let's stay in touch.
太棒了。
Awesome.
现在我们要用我们的AI技能反向推算出你这个百岁老人的情况。
Now we're gonna use our AI skills to backwards figure out what that you 100 year old.
打算从数据中心提取能量来计算数据。
Gonna draw energy from the data centers to crunch the numbers.
为了
To
计算数据。
crunch the numbers.
抓挠或者别的什么。
Clawed or whatever.
嗯。
Yeah.
特蕾西，我真的很喜欢这一点。
Tracy, I really enjoy that.
它确实让人感觉，如果你现在处于正确的位置，就会有一大笔钱涌来。
It does feel as though if you're in the right place right now, there's just a mountain of money coming.
我的意思是，谁知道你是否真的能拿到呢？
I mean, who knows if you're, like, gonna get it?
但你知道，他谈到了每个国家都希望增强国内能源安全，还有长期趋势等等。
But, you know, between all of he talked about every country wanting to have more domestic energy security, the secular trends, etcetera.
如果你身处正确的位置，政府投入更多资金，现在在这个领域，你仿佛只需站在正确的地方，就能接住一场倾盆而下的资金洪流。
If you're in the right place, government spending more money, it feels like you could get stand in the right way of an absolute fire hose of money right now in this space.
我的意思是，我觉得是这样，他也提到过，政府才是关键风险，也就是监管风险。
I mean, it feels to me and, you know, he kinda said it, but the government is the key risk here, the regulatory risk.
而且，我也认同他的观点，即使在当前商品价格下数字看似可行，但如果你考虑未来的需求等因素，可能就不成立了，因为你的假设是：三年后，我们会迎来新一届政府。
And, also, I take his point about even though maybe the numbers pencil out at current commodity levels, if you look at future demand and stuff like that, it might not work because your assumption is, well, you know, in three years, we'll have a new administration.
是的。
Yeah.
或者再过十年，政策风向可能又会转向清洁能源之类的。
Or maybe in another ten years, the pendulum will swing back towards clean energy or something like that.
所以，对我来说，这似乎是主要风险。
So that to me seems to be the big risk.
关于委内瑞拉这一点。
Just on the Venezuela point.
我的意思是，这很难说服人。
I mean, it's gonna be a hard sell.
我的意思是，谁会愿意掏出一千亿美元，而且这笔钱还得分给一大堆公司。
I mean, imagine who wants to pony up a $100,000,000,000 and granted shared between a bunch of different companies presumably.
但还是那个老一套的政权。
It's still the same old regime.
可根本没发生什么变化，你知道的？
There hasn't been you know?
然后那里还有所有的不确定性。
And then all the uncertainty there.
还有，你知道，石油的价值已经不像几年前那么高了。
And then the fact that, you know, oil just isn't as valuable as it was several years.
有哪些勇敢的卖方分析师会跑去委内瑞拉实地考察，以便为投资PDVSA债券之类的提供研究支持？
Who are the brave sell side analysts that are gonna go on a field trip to Venezuela in order to inform their research on buying, like, PDVSA bonds or something?
没错。
Yeah.
这正是我们需要的。
That's what we need.
我们需要一份卖方报告。
We need a sell side report.
因为你们喜欢的那些报告有趣之处在于，它们经常包含大量照片。
Like because the the thing that's fun about the reports that you like is they often take a lot of pictures.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
所以我们需要有人去佩德韦斯设施做一份报告。
So when we we need someone to do a report, like, go into the Pedevais facilities.
比如，派人去拍一千张照片，展示一下这个设施的现状，没错。
Like, just someone takes a thousand photographs of, here is the state of this Yep.
这个设施的这个产品，这个
Product this facility, this
某条管道，去那里看看。
Some pipeline, one go this watch.
是的。
Yeah.
油轮在委内瑞拉装货，告诉我们你看到的一切。
Oil tanker being loaded up in Venezuela, and tell us everything that you see.
情况怎么样？
How is it?
效率如何？
How efficient is it?
诸如此类。
And so forth.
要修复顶部实际上需要什么
What it would actually take to repair a top
我觉得我得为此加个免责声明。
of I feel like I need to add a disclaimer onto that.
请不要为了我们的缘故去委内瑞拉做这些事。
Please do not go to Venezuela and do all this on our account.
为了我们的缘故。
On our account.
不。
No.
我们并没有要求
We are not asking
我们没有要求任何人去委内瑞拉。
We're not asking anyone to go to Venezuela.
我们要求的是那些本就因工作需要前往当地的专业人士，在卖方报告中多提供一些照片，但我们并没有要求你们替我们去做这件事。
We are asking someone in a professional capacity whose job would be to go there anyway to please include a lot of pictures in the sell side report, but we are not asking you to do it on our behalf.
这个免责声明够清楚了吗？
Was that a big enough caveat?
我们会收到律师的反馈吗？
Are we gonna get feedback from the lawyers?
我们必须反向推导出中西部那家公用事业公司的具体情况，因为那些数字太惊人了。
We gotta reverse engineer what that utility company is in the Midwest because those numbers are staggering.
我的意思是，那究竟是什么？
I mean, the fact that what is it?
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。