伊朗战争将如何进一步挤压美国农民

你知道，如果看这些图表，撇开一些短期波动，比如2021年南美洲的干旱和2022年乌克兰战争的影响，如果你把数据平均来看，或者对比十年前和今天的_snapshot_，我们的数字几乎完全一致。

You know, if you look at the charts, the blips aside, say, around the '21 drought in in South America and then the '22 issue with the Ukrainian war, if you look at it averaged out or even snapshot from ten years ago to today, we are almost dead on the same numbers.

因此，效率的提升在很大程度上弥补了这些变化。

So it's being made up via efficiency gains in a significant manner.

但事实是，我敢肯定在你的领域里，你已经听过很多次了：从长期来看，经通胀调整后的实际商品价格会下降。

And but the fact of the matter, though, is and I'm sure in in your world, you've heard this many times, the real rate of the inflation adjusted real rate of commodities over time will fall.

它们就是会下降。

They just do.

如果你要画图，我觉得最好的方式是把黄金和任何其他东西做对比，你甚至可以选择一些近期表现更热的商品，比如去年的可可或最近的牛肉。

If you chart I think the best way to do this is to chart gold against anything, And you can even pick some things that have maybe been hotter in the moment like cocoa last year or cattle recently.

如果你对任何价格敏感、供给弹性大的商品做长期图表，它们的价格都会随着时间推移而下降。

And if you do a long term chart of any basically price taking, very elastic supply response commodity, they will fall over time.

如果你把它和黄金做对比，那图表会非常惊人。

And then if you plot it against gold, it's a stunning chart.

是的。

Yeah.

公平地说，如今任何东西相比黄金都显得很糟糕，但我确实理解你的观点。

To be fair, anything these days looks pretty bad relative to gold, but I certainly take the point.

在某种程度上，这正是进步的定义，对吧？

And to some extent, that is the definition of progress, right?

随着社会越来越富裕，所有谷物、蛋白质等商品的价格都会随着时间推移而下降。

That all of grains and proteins and stuff get cheaper over time as we become a wealthier society.

但我确实认同这个观点。

But I certainly take that point.

跟我们聊聊过去一年的贸易情况吧，因为我能想到几个不同的维度。

Talk to us about trade in the last year because I can think of a few different dimensions.

首先，总统总是说我们会为我们的大豆农民争取到好交易，但我一直不太清楚这到底指的是什么。

First of all, you always have the president talking about, oh, we're gonna get a good deal for our soybean farmers, so I'm never quite sure where that is.

其次，我想象特别是你提到的设备成本和某些商品的关税，已经造成了压力。

Second of all, though, I imagine that especially certain, just you mentioned equipment costs and tariffs on certain goods, imagine has created a squeeze.

跟我们说说过去一年，贸易模式的变化如何影响了你所接触的农民。

Talk to us about the last year and how changing trade patterns have affected the farmers that you work with.

是的。

Yeah.

所以首先打击我们的，显然是与中国之间的贸易挑战，对吧？

So the first thing that hit us, right, obviously was the trade challenge with China, right?

中国是全球最大的大豆买家。

Largest buyer of soybeans in the world.

这显然导致供应回流到美国，而巴西则收到了不同的经济信号，因为在美国关税壁垒之下，巴西的价格实际上上涨了，就在美国价格下方。

And that obviously pushes supply back into The US and the Brazilians actually get a different signal, economic signal, because prices actually rise in Brazil, right, up underneath the tariff barrier, up right just below where The US value is.

因此，这向巴西市场发出了扩张的信号。

And so you get a signal into the Brazilian market to expand, actually.

我对这一点非常担忧的是，在我们应对过程中，中国购买了足够多的美国大豆，以让巴西保持诚实。

And the other thing I have a very concern about in that is, as we've worked through it, we have sold, the Chinese have bought just enough US beans to keep the Brazilian honest.

就是这样。

That's it.

就是这样。

And that's it.

你能解释一下吗？

Can you explain?

抱歉。

Sorry.

你能澄清一下这是什么意思吗？

Can you clarify what that means?

所以他们的做法是，因为巴西人说，你们根本不会买任何美国大豆。

So what they do is because the Brazilians say, hey, you're not gonna buy any US beans period.

对吧？

Right?

他们的价格一直在不断上涨。

Their prices just keep going higher and higher and higher.

突然间，我认为他们在最终购买了一些巴西大豆的那天，巴西大豆的价格可能每蒲式耳下跌了一美元。

Well, all of a sudden, I think the day that they did finally buy a few Brazilian cargoes, I think the Brazilian beans probably lost a dollar a bushel that

美国的货船，指的是杰夫。

US cargoes, meant Jeff.

不好意思。

Pardon me.

是的。

Yeah.

美国，没错。

US, yep.

好的。

Okay.

他们购买了美国的货物，这传递了一个信号，使得巴西大豆的价格无法涨得太高。

Bought US cargoes and it sends a signal so that The US the Brazil, Brazilian beans just can't get away too far away.

中国实际上把我们当作一个

The Chinese effectively have used us as a

我明白你的意思。

I see what you're saying.

用来维持这种局面的杠杆。

As a lever to keep that going.

但你看到了扩张，巴西当然还有阿根廷在新政权下表现得更好，你可以看到他们那里的小麦产量创下了历史纪录。

But so you got expansion, Brazil and of course Argentina under the new regime doing much better as far as and you can see they had an all time record wheat crop there.

所以你现在有两个竞争者表现得相当不错。

And so you've got two competitors that are doing relatively well.

我对此的另一个担忧是，尽量不涉及政治：当我们对俄罗斯实施禁运时

The other concern I have with this is and trying not to be political is back when we embargoed the Russians

嗯。

Mhmm.

这向世界传递了一个信号，表明我们不是一个稳定的供应商。

It sent a signal to the world's the world community that we were not a stable supplier.

你是说苏联在

And he You mean Soviets in the in

是的，哦，你不是在说

yeah, Oh, you're not talking

关于是的。

about Yeah.

我有一瞬间糊涂了。

Was confused for a second.

我当时想，等等。

I was like, wait.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们要回溯到很久以前。

We're going but we're gonna go way back

对，很好。

right Good.

很好。

Good.

我们来好好说。

Let's good.

我们在播客里很喜欢讲历史。

We love we love history on the podcast.

等等。

So wait.

跟我们说说。

Talk to us

再多讲讲，不是最近的那期。

more about the Not the recent edition.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

给我们讲讲那个。

Tell us about that.

是的。

Yeah.

所以当那件事发生时，确实导致大量资本涌入巴西，好吧。

So when that happened, right, that caused a flood of capital to pour in to Brazil Okay.

还有阿根廷。

And Argentina.

对吧？

Right?

特别是日本人，当时他们是全球贸易中的主要买家，但其他人也把资金投入基础设施，以寻求替代方案。

Particularly the Japanese, which were the large buyer, global buyer in the global trade back then, but others poured money into infrastructure to get an alternative.

没错。

Yep.

你也会做同样的事情。

And you would do the same thing.

对吧？

Right?

如果你只有一个超市供货，突然间说，你要么按我的要求做，要么就去找第二个供应商。

If you were you had one grocery store that was supplied, you and all of a sudden, said, you either do what I want or you'd go find a secondary supplier.

这确实在发生。

And that is absolutely happening.

外国资本正在涌入替代市场。

Foreign capital is pouring into alternative markets.

因此，这场贸易争端带来的影响是一个长期的挑战。

So it's a long term challenge in what this trade dispute has done.

这是我的

That's my

担忧，种植者。

concern that the grower.

历史正在重演，因为直接原因。

History is repeating in the sense that the proximate okay.

目前存在诸多贸易壁垒等状况，因此国际上正在更多地投资于非美国的农场，以扩大供应。

There's a bunch of trade barriers, etcetera, going on, and so the move is internationally just invest more in non American farms to expand that supply.

因此，你会看到更多中国对巴西的投资，以及中国在其他地区的投资，这样买家们就能拥有美国以外的多种替代来源。

So you see more, say, Chinese investment in Brazil and Chinese investment elsewhere so that they just have alternate various buyers have alternate sources outside of The US.

是的。

Yeah.

这确实在发生。

That is absolutely happening.

明白了。

Got Got it.

我知道你说过不想涉及太多政治，但我确实觉得我必须问一下。

I know you said you didn't wanna get too political, but I do feel like I have to ask.

我们知道，美国农民 overwhelmingly 支持特朗普2.0，尽管他们已经经历过特朗普1.0，那时也实施了贸易限制，据我记忆，这对大豆价格等造成了伤害。

We know that farmers in America overwhelmingly supported Trump two point o, even though they had already had the experience of Trump one point o, which also involved trade restrictions, which from what I remember were harmful to things like soybean prices.

既然农民似乎因贸易壁垒和关税而受损，为什么他们仍 overwhelmingly 支持一位公开表示自己热爱关税的总统？

What's the rationale for farmers seemingly being hurt by trade restrictions and tariffs, but still overwhelmingly supporting a president who loves tariffs, in his own words.

我再次强调，我不能代表每一位农民，农民群体非常多元，但我认为在上一届政府时期，确实有一些过渡性补贴。

I again, I can't speak for every farmer, there's a very wide but I do think that in the previous administration, there were, call them bridge payments.

好的。

Okay.

这些补贴通常弥补了大部分差距。

That generally made up a lot of that gap.

是的。

Yeah.

关于税收和其他方面，我们在农业监管上遇到了巨大的挑战，而这些承诺本来是会得到解决的。

A lot of that other pieces of the puzzle on taxes, we've had tremendous challenges with regulation in farming that it was promised right.

比如围绕排放、水资源管理等方面的规定，变得非常繁重。

And there are, you know, whether that's particularly things around emissions, water regulation, some things that became very burdensome.

因此，尽管并非所有农场都如此，我们这里也有支持不同立场的农场，但许多农场确实支持了特朗普在上届大选中提出的政纲。

And so there were a lot of reasons that not every farm, we have farms on both sides here, but a lot of farms did support the platform that Trump ran on in the previous election.

除了关税之外，还有许多其他因素。

There are a number of other things besides just the tariffs.

他们还重视公平贸易和市场准入。

They also had a sense of fair trade, access to markets.

我们从加拿大进口很多东西，但却无法向加拿大出口许多产品。

We import a lot of things from Canada, but we can't export a number of things to Canada.

牛奶是乳制品之一，我想。

Milk is one of the dairy products, I think.

我们关注谷物，但这个国家在畜牧业和蛋白产业方面也有大量的资本投入，这些我们甚至都还没谈到。

We're focused on grain, but there are significant capital investments in this country and everything on the livestock and protein side out there also that we haven't even we haven't even broached.

另一个例子是欧盟，显然欧盟的谷物市场保护程度举世无双。

And another example, the EU, obviously the EU has a protected grain market like no place on earth.

所以，如果有机会的话，我可以肯定地说，99%以上的美国大田作物生产者都希望彻底消除所有贸易管制或贸易壁垒——无论是关税还是其他形式——以便在全球谷物生产中占据优势，因为他们在这种环境下会表现得非常出色。

So one thing I can say if given the opportunity, 99 plus percent of row crop producers in The United States would love nothing more than to just remove all trade regulation or trade barriers, shall we say, tariffs or otherwise to global grain production because they would do extremely well in an environment like that.

是的，美国农民遵守规则。

Yeah, American farmers are playing to the rules.

他们没有参与制定这些规则，但会遵守所给予的规则。

They didn't get a say at the rules, they'll play to the rules that they're given.

但如果你放任他们发展，他们会变得极其高效。

But if you let them loose, they are tremendously productive.

我们国家还拥有水路、交通等优势，法治和私有财产权至关重要，这些因素使美国生产者，相较于加拿大生产者，在全球市场上具有极大的竞争力。

We have also the gifts that this country has with waterways, transportation, rule of law is very important, private property ownership rules, things that make The US, a little less the Canadian producer, extremely competitive in the world.

越来越多的政府干预正在出现，我们以前也经历过，届时我们会应对。

Evermore, we continue to get more and more government intervention, and we've been through it before, and we'll deal with it as it comes.

我们的劳动力成本是一个因素吗，还是主要取决于你们所种植的作物类型？

What about our labor costs a factor or is it mostly the type of crops that you deal with?

农业机械化程度如此之高，以至于劳动力在成本中根本不是一个重要因素吗？

Is it so mechanized that labor is just not a particularly important dial or factor of the cost?

以每英亩一千美元的成本为例，在谷物种植中，劳动力所占比例微乎其微，已经变得极其高效。

In that example, thousand dollar an acre cost, labor's a tiny amount of that in grain farming, it's become extremely efficient.

但在你所想到的所有作物中，比如蔬菜种植，这些劳动密集型的作物，劳动力确实是个大问题，对吧？

But in all the crops that you think vegetable farming, right, things that are very labor intense, it's absolutely an issue, right?

随着劳动力成本上升，你看到越来越多的移民和机器人技术被应用，对吧？

In immigration, robotics, you see more and more, right, as labor costs rise.

是的，这在某些作物上是个大问题，坦白说，就是那些消费者日常更熟悉的作物，对吧？

Yeah, it's a huge issue in certain crops, and quite frankly, crops that consumers are more familiar with day to day, right?

消费者不会吃大豆，或者对吧。

A consumer doesn't eat a soybean or Yeah.

也不会啃硬邦邦的玉米粒，对吧？

Or crunch on a hard piece of corn, right?

但当涉及到草莓、生菜、胡萝卜时，对吧？

But when it becomes strawberries, lettuce, carrots, right?

这仍然是一个非常劳动密集型的作业。

It's still a very labor intensive operation.

畜牧业也是一个很好的例子，我认为，劳动力成本正在施压，这当然也是移民问题的核心。

And the livestock side is another good example, I think, where labor costs are squeezing and certainly heart of the immigration issue too.

顺便说一下，我儿子喜欢生吃玉米。

My son likes raw corn, by the way.

我想他并不

I guess he doesn't

吃生玉米？

eat Raw corn?

是的。

Yeah.

他是直接从玉米棒上吃的吗？

Well, he does directly off the cob?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

他吃的是新鲜的、已经煮过的玉米。

He does just fresh corn precooked.

我的意思是，不是那种干玉米。

I mean, it's not the not dried corn.

不是干玉米。

Not dried corn.

甜玉米。

Sweet corn.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

甜玉米。

Sweet corn.

好的。

Okay.

甜玉米。

Sweet corn.

是的。

Yeah.

他

He

我只是知道。

just I know.

它是

It's

我非常困惑。

I was very confused.

他不想咬到一个‘不’。

He wouldn't wanna bite into a No.

完全干燥、含水量15%的。

A fully cured 15% moisture.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

他今天不会在。

He would not be today.

但是，特蕾西，我可能已经讲过这个故事了。

But, Tracy, have I I I've probably told this story.

我有没有跟你说过那次我在吉隆坡双子塔顶上的夜总会里跟棕榈油大亨聊天的事？

Did I ever tell you about the time I talked to the palm oil magnate at the top at the nightclub at the top of

双子塔？

the Petronas Towers?

我当时在吉隆坡双子塔顶上一家特别吵的夜总会，遇到了一位棕榈油大亨。

I was at this really noisy nightclub at the top of the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, And I met

我去过。

Been there.

哦，你去过？

Oh, you have?

那里有个棕榈油大亨，现场吵得要命。

And there was this palm oil magnate, and it was super loud in there.

他对我说：乔，让我告诉你为什么棕榈油是世界上最好的生意。

And he was like, Joe, let me tell you why palm oil is just the best business in the world.

它被用在所有东西里。

He's it goes into everything.

它被用在女性的口红里。

It goes into women's lipstick.

它也被用在这些东西里。

It goes into this.

它还被用在那些东西里。

It goes into that.

然后这是关键的相关点。

And then this is like the key thing relevant.

他说，由于树木的特性，至少在当时，很难实现机械化。

He's like, because of, like, the nature of the trees, at least as of the time, it was very difficult to mechanize.

所以，与某些情况不同，由于采摘棕榈油非常依赖人力，劳动力始终是关键部分。

And so unlike, say, there is always going to be because labor is it was such an important part of picking palm oil.

因此，马来西亚相比更富裕的国家，始终拥有成本优势。

It's like Malaysia will always have this cost advantage over richer countries.

所以，是的，他当时非常

And so, yes, he was very he

但现在他们正在讨论机械化的方法

was But now they're talking about mechanized ways

当然。

of course.

我认为他们正在让这个过程更加机械化，最终机器人会接手这项工作。

I think I think they are making it more mechanized, and robots will eventually come for it.

但至少在当时，他极力向我推销，说棕榈油是未来。

But at least at the time, he was really giving me the hard sell on palm oil is the future.

然而你旅行回来时并没有

And yet you came back from your trip without having

但我也确实没有购买。

bought And yet I did not buy it.

所以

So

是的。

yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以，我想问的是，农民们每年是如何决定种植什么作物的。

So of the things I wanted to ask is how farmers actually make the decision on what they're gonna plant each year.

我确信其中一部分是基于他们自己的经验和所拥有的土地类型，但似乎还有许多其他因素需要考虑，比如未来作物的价格、投入成本，某些作物比如需要更多氮肥，而氮肥的价格现在正在上涨。

I'm sure some of it is just based on their own experience and the type of land they have, but it also seems like there are all these other factors that they would be considering, future prices that they could get for things or input costs, maybe certain crops, for instance, consume or need more nitrogen, which is now going up in price.

那么，每年做出这些决策时，究竟有哪些具体因素在起作用呢？

So what are all the individual factors that go into making those decisions every year?

作为这群人中的农民，我想我得来回答这个问题。

Well, as the farmer of the group, I guess I'll have to take this one.

所以，我会说，显然我们会考虑经济因素，但我认为农民们往往更关注过去而非未来，因为你直到收获时才能知道实际产量，对吧？

So, I'd say, obviously, We do look at economics, although I think farmers tend to look a little bit more backward than forward, because you really don't know until you have yield, right?

因此，从根本上说，对未来经济的预测能走多远是有限的。

And so fundamentally, can only take forward looking economics so far.

轮作非常重要，可以打破病害循环，还要考虑设备利用率、仓储利用率，同时也取决于你有哪些选择。

Crop rotation is very important, disease breaking, equipment utilization, storage utilization, and it also depends in the, you know, what are your choices?

国家某些地区的选择要多得多。

Certain parts of the country have a lot more choices.

我们基本上忽略了棉花，因为它的价格一直严重低迷。

We've kind of left out, cotton has been severely depressed.

棉花是一种非常灵活的作物，你可以用大豆替代它，甚至可能种一点玉米。

Cotton is a very flexible crop in a sense that you could replace that with a soybean, potentially a little bit of corn.

花生是东南部的重要作物，受到政府高度监管。

Peanuts is a big crop in the Southeast, highly government regulated.

所以你改种什么，作物保险是关键因素之一。

So what you switch to, crop insurance is a huge piece of the puzzle.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以投保到什么水平？

What levels can you insure?

你可能种植一种看起来不盈利的作物，但由于保险水平，仍能保证收入。

You may grow a crop that doesn't look profitable, but because of the levels, can guarantee revenue.

这些东西都会发生。

Those things go.

但在大多数地方，你不会看到巨大的作物切换，因为如果你全部种玉米——去年我们确实看到了更多的玉米，你可能会突然发现自己面临严重的仓储问题，因为你把每英亩50蒲式耳的大豆换成了每英亩200蒲式耳的玉米。

But you don't get tremendous switches in most places because you just If you go all corn, we saw a lot more corn last year, actually, you can suddenly find yourself in a severe storage problem because you trade a fifty fifty bushel an acre soybean for a 200 bushel an acre corn.

即使现在，在西部地区也是如此，明尼苏达州、北达科他州、南达科他州和内布拉斯加州的谷物堆积如山，因为我们大量增加了玉米连作面积，仓储能力跟不上了。

And you actually have that in the Far West even as we speak, there is grain piled across Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, because we had a lot more corn on corn acres rotation, and we outran our storage.

我们去年收成很好，所以，

And we had a great So,

我还想问另一件事，就是关于决定把农产品存起来，然后何时决定出售——这一点我直到读了那本书后才真正意识到在美国竟是如此重要。

is something else I wanted to ask about, which is like the decision to put something in storage and then when you actually decide to sell it because this is, again, one thing I hadn't really realized was such a thing in The US until I read that book.

但同样，今天这个问题又变得相关了，因为受伊朗局势影响，粮食价格开始小幅上涨。

But also, it seems to be relevant again today because we are seeing grain prices start to go up a little bit given the Iran situation.

所以我看到《农业周报》等媒体上说，农民们都在抢着出售去年存下来的玉米。

And so I'm reading stories on Ag Week and places like that saying that farmers are all rushing to sell all the corn that they had in storage from last year.

谷物之所以需要流动，主要出于两个原因。

Corn really moves for or grain really moves for two main reasons in terms of having to move.

正如杰夫已经提到的，储存是一方面，现金需求是另一方面。

As Jeff already alluded to, storage is one, and cash needs is the other.

北美储存空间的真正价值在于收获后最初的大约九十天内。

And the real value of storage space in North America is that first sort of ninety days into harvest, into harvest and afterwards.

之后，这更多地变成了一种个人决策，一种个人营销决策。

After that, it becomes again more of a personal decision, a personal marketing decision.

我们教授的一种方法，促使生产者像我们过去所工作的那种粮食营销与风险管理团队那样思考。

There's an approach we teach that forces producers to think more an actual grain merchandising and risk management group like, you know, the the group we worked for in the past would think.

因此，他们的实际驱动因素——经济驱动因素——可能与以前的做法不同。

So their their actual drivers for that, economic drivers might change than the way they did it before.

但没错，更高的平价就是更好的价格，这会促使粮食进入市场，尤其是在我们看到许久未见的价格时。

But yes, flat prices that are better are just that and it will bring grain to market, especially when we were seeing prices we haven't seen for quite some time.

正如杰夫所说，我们有一个非常好的收成，但还有很多粮食仍存放在那里。

And as Jeff said, we had a really good crop and a lot still sitting around.

所以是的，在过去一个月里，大量实物粮食为了抓住这些更高价格而被售出。

So yeah, in the last month, a tremendous amount of physical grain has moved to hit these higher prices.

本期节目由先锋集团赞助播出。

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard.

致所有正在收听的财务顾问，我们来聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益市场中捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场庞大、复杂，坦白说，许多公司只是扔出几只花哨的基金就了事。

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但先锋集团不是这样。

But not Vanguard.

在先锋集团，机构级品质不是一句口号。

At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline.

而是对您客户的承诺。

It's a commitment to your clients.

我们提供全方位的优质产品，涵盖80多只债券基金，均由一支由200名全球行业专家、分析师和交易员组成的团队主动管理。

We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200 person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

这些人全身心投入固定收益领域。

These folks live and breathe fixed income.

所以，如果你想为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，亲自去 vanguard.com/audio 看看他们的业绩吧。

So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

那就是 vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资均存在风险，Vanguard Marketing Corporation 为分销商。

All investing is subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

你可以随时通过彭博新闻现在获取新闻。

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

我是艾米·莫里斯。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是凯伦·莫斯科，今天来向你介绍我们全新按需新闻报道，直接推送到你的播客订阅中。

And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.

彭博新闻现在是一份五分钟的音频简报，聚焦当日最重要的新闻。

Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.

节目全天持续发布，提供最新信息和数据，确保您随时掌握动态。

Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

是的。

Yes.

其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重复播放广播新闻。

There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.

我们可不是这么做的。

That's not what we do.

我们制作的是仅在彭博新闻现在节目中才能听到的定制化节目。

We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News Now.

我们也不会等上一小时才发布突发新闻。

And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news.

一旦有新闻发生，我们会在几分钟内将节目推送到您的播客订阅源，确保您始终获取最新资讯和进展。

When news breaks, we'll have an episode up on your podcast feed within minutes, so you're always getting the latest stories and developments.

获取彭博社3000名记者和分析师带来的深度报道与背景分析。

Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts.

我们遍布全球。

We're all over the world.

立即在 Apple、Spotify 或您收听播客的任何平台收听彭博新闻的最新内容。

Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

几十年来，人们远赴世界各地寻求约翰·德·迪奥斯的医治，因为他们渴望得到医生无法提供的治愈。

For decades, people traveled across the world to see John of God, desperate for cures no doctor could offer.

当他们到达时，看到了无法解释的事情。

And when they arrived, they saw things they couldn't explain.

这是真实的。

This is real.

这家伙真的在做手术，这简直是个奇迹。

This guy's actually doing surgery and it's a miracle.

直到那一刻之前，我从不相信奇迹是真实的。

I never believed that miracles were real until that point.

但在那些崇拜的人群背后，却隐藏着更加黑暗的东西。

But behind those adoring crowds was something much darker.

我从未去报警的原因之一，是因为我看到至少五六个持枪的人始终跟在他身边。

One of the reasons why I never went to the police is because I saw at least five or six men with guns everywhere he went.

这一点我很清楚，闭上你的嘴。

That was clear to me, close your mouth.

别开口。

Don't open your mouth.

什么都别说。

Don't say anything.

我是主持人马丁娜·卡斯特罗。

I'm your host, Martina Castro.

在播客《两面人：圣约翰》中，我们将回溯一位声称能行奇迹、并让全球各地的人们深信不疑的人。

And in the podcast, Two Faced, John of God, we'll look back on a man who claimed he could perform miracles and got people from all around the world to believe him.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《两面人：圣约翰》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is Two Faced, John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

当供应量巨大且人人都需要存储空间时，谁会赚大钱？

Who makes a lot of money when there's a ton of supply and everyone wants storage?

那时候存储租金会大幅上涨吗？

Do those storage rents go way up at that time?

是的，这是个很好的问题。

Yeah, that's a great question.

农民们经常问我们这个问题。

Farmers ask us that all the time.

是的，空间变得更有价值了，对吧？

So yes, space gets more valuable, right?

但只到一定程度为止。

Up to a point.

到了那个临界点，空间的价值会持续上升，直到它能覆盖额外的空间成本。

And then that point, it keeps, the value of space keeps rising till it grabs an incremental space.

接下来，你明白的，容易获得的空间会先被占用，然后空间的价值才会进一步提高。

And the next thing, you know, easy space gets filled first, and then space value gets higher.

然后接下来，你知道的，你会去填某个盐矿，再往西走，到了更冷更干燥的地区，他们实际上会把粮食堆起来，覆盖数百万甚至上亿蒲式耳，这在一定程度上限制了空间的价值。

And then the next thing, you know, you're filling a salt mine somewhere, and then you get out to the Far West where you have colder drier, they actually pile the grain and cover it millions and millions and millions of bushels, which kind of caps out the value of space.

所以这真正开始确立了空间的价值，但没错，它会随着时间波动。

So that really starts to set that value of space, but yes, it does flex over time.

现在农民们已经投资了大量空间。

And now farmers have invested in a lot of space.

我们教他们的一件事就是如何像粮仓一样利用这些空间，如何像贸易商一样赚钱。

And one of the things we teach is how to utilize that space like a grain elevator and how to earn like a merchandiser.

这是我们农民生产者业务中非常重要的一部分。

That's a piece, a big piece of what we do in our farmer producer business.

很有趣。

Interesting.

所以我想稍微宏观地看一眼。

So I'm zooming out for a second.

我正在看美国农场局联合会的一张图表。

I am looking at a chart from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

2025年整体农场破产数量非常高。

2025 was a very high year for farm bankruptcies overall.

虽然还没达到1980年代举办农场援助音乐会时的水平，但显然已攀升至疫情以来的最高点。

And it's not at the levels of when they were doing the farm aid concerts in the 1980s or so forth, but it's clearly ticked up the highest it looks like certainly since the pandemic.

当一名农民申请破产时，他们是如何陷入这种境地的？

When a farmer declares bankruptcy, how did they wind up in that situation?

我的意思是，所有人都面临着同样的压力，但到底发生了什么，才会导致一系列事件，最终让农民申请第12章破产？

I mean, everyone's facing the same stresses, but what had to have happened to kick off that sequence of events such that a farmer files chapter 12?

是的。

Yeah.

在我们的农场管理业务中，这是这项业务的一部分，我们看到了很多情况。

In our farm management practice, which is a part of this business, we see a lot.

首先，你得深入挖掘这些数据。

So let's be first off, you gotta dig deeper in those numbers.

我猜测，乳制品行业的数据也包含在内。

I would venture to guess that the dairy numbers are in there.

好的。

Okay.

奶业领域发生了结构性变化，大型奶场的高效运营模式已经占据主导地位。

And we have a structural change in dairy to these mega dairy efficiencies that have that business model has taken over.

因此，即使是中型奶牛场也承受着巨大的压力。

And so it's put intense pressure on even the mid size dairy farm.

所以，这种情况非常多，而且这是一种非常情感化的农业类型，因为你每天都要和这些动物在一起，是的。

So, you've got a lot of that, and that's a very emotional type of farming, I wanna say, because you're there every day Yeah.

和这些牲畜在一起。

With those with that livestock.

很难向那些从未从动物出生起就陪伴它、与它相处七八年的人解释清楚。

It's hard to explain to somebody who hasn't been with an animal since it was born and is with it for seven or eight years.

被迫以这种方式退出真的非常艰难。

To get forced out that way is really challenging.

我们在谷物种植领域看不到这种情况。

We don't see it in the grain side.

好的。

Okay.

很多都跟付款有关，对吧？

A lot of it has to do with the payments, right?

资金一直很紧张，你得盯着营运资金，而且农场的情况也不一样。

It's been tight, and you're watching working capital, and farms are different.

但我们没看到很多第12章破产的情况。

But we don't see a lot of chapter 12.

你没看到这种情况，我们也没看到农场被迫出售。

You don't see it, and we're not seeing farms being forced to sale.

我们也没看到大规模的农机具出售。

We're not may seeing wholesale equipment sales.

好的。

Okay.

在谷物种植领域，那些破产都不是由破产驱动的。

That are bankruptcy driven in the grain side.

在大多数市场。

In most markets.

我认为水稻一直特别困难。

I think rice has been particularly difficult.

我们在这类阿肯色地区业务不多。

We're not huge into that kinda Arkansas area.

我认为棉花一直非常具有挑战性。

I think cotton has been very, very challenging.

我们真的没有看到信贷收缩，对吧？这本应是来自营运资本的预期反应。

We really haven't seen a credit contraction, right, which is what you would think would happen from working capital.

很多营运资本是通过农业信贷系统提供的，对吧？那些准政府支持的机构。

A lot of working capital is provided through the farm credit system, right, the quasi backed agencies.

即使在上一个周期，我们也极少看到收缩，因为过去几个月他们一直在续贷运营贷款。撤回的情况非常少，坦率地说，目前借款仍然非常有竞争力，短期借款利率大约在6.5%到7.5%之间，而美国国债利率只有3.5%到3.6%。

And we have very rarely, even in the last cycle, because they're renewing their operating loans here in the last couple of months, There has been a very few pullbacks, and then quite frankly, it's still very competitive where you can borrow money at, call it six and a half to seven and a half percent for short term versus a government treasury at three and a half, 3.6.

所以作为投资者，对吧，这个利差很不错。

So as investors, right, that's a good spread.

而且农场里仍然有大量的权益。

And there still is a lot of equity in farms.

这些权益体现在土地上。

It's in the land.

所以你可能会遇到一些农场因扩张而陷入困境，虽然拥有权益，但这些权益被锁定在土地价值中。

So you can get farms that get tripped up through expansion, and you have equity, but it's locked through into the land values.

这正是你可能出问题的地方。

And that can be where you get into trouble.

你只是短期运营资金被压缩，但据我们所见，银行目前并没有大幅收紧运营贷款。

You just get short term operating capital squeezed, but the banks are not, to the best of what we see, are not really heavily pulling back on operating notes at this point.

是的，这又回到了我们之前提到的土地和权益问题。

Yeah, it goes back to the land point that we made earlier in equity.

与八十年代末的农业援助时期相比，如今生产者的资产负债表要好得多。

And when you compare now to the farm aid stuff in the late eighties, we have much better balance sheets at the producer level now versus then.

而且别忘了，当时利率高达百分之十几，对吧？

And also remember you had interest rates in the upper teens, Right?

所以现在的情况非常不同。

So it's just very different now.

因为显然现在有压力，但远没有那时那么严重。

Because obviously there's a squeeze, but it's not remotely like that.

所以我意识到我们已经快没时间了，本来还可以继续聊很久。

So I realized we're already running out of time and we could kind of keep going for ages.

但回到当前情况，你从你的农业联系人那里现在听到什么关于他们对伊朗局势的看法？

But just to get back to the current situation, what are you hearing from your network of farming contacts right now about how they're feeling about the Iran situation?

因为正如我们在引言中提到的，目前正存在这些相互拉扯的因素。

Because as we mentioned in the intro, there are these push pull factors that are going on right now.

是的。

Yeah.

当我们与农民交流时，我自己也有农场，首先，我们有机会以一些相对不错的价位为新季谷物进行套期保值，许多客户都抓住时机至少卖出了一部分谷物。

We, a, you know, as we connect with the farmers and I have my own farm, first off, we've had some opportunities to hedge off some grain for new crop at some relatively interesting levels, and lots of our clients have taken the time to at least get some grain sold.

所以你们提前卖出了下一季的

So you forward sold the upcoming

我们可以提前销售下一季的作物。

We can forward sell the upcoming crop.

我们已经利用了上一季的机会，对吧？我们之前稍微提到过。

We've taken advantage of it on the old crop, right, which we talked about a little bit earlier.

我们显然非常担心那些尚未锁定的化肥价格。

We obviously are very concerned about the fertilizer prices on the pieces we don't have locked up.

在持续的通胀压力下，我认为通胀才是让我们最担忧的因素——我这里的‘我们’是泛指，因为我们感觉无法掌控局面。

And you know, in that constant squeeze across all inflationary, I think the inflation is the piece that drives us, I'm gonna call us being the proverbial us, because we don't feel like we're in control.

农业领域的许多供应商是寡头垄断吗？

A number of suppliers in the ag sector operate in oligarchy?

寡头垄断。

Oligopoly.

寡头垄断，是的。

Oligopoly, yeah.

寡头垄断，对吧？

Oligopoly, right?

因此，你会听到很多关于种子、化肥的讨论，尤其是在牛肉加工领域，这确实是个大问题。

And so, you'll hear a lot about whether that's seed, fertilizer, particularly in cattle processing, and, you know, that's a big issue.

我们对此非常清楚。

We're very aware of it.

当你设置贸易壁垒时，实际上就把其他可能对降低农场成本至关重要的竞争者排除在外了。

When you put in trade barriers, you actually isolate other competitors out, right, that are probably critical to keeping costs down at the farm.

因此，农民们对自己的供应商环境感到非常不安，而且这种担忧是有充分理由的。

So farmers feel very threatened about the supplier environment that they're in, and probably with good reason.

我本人从未见过任何非法行为，但我看到大量在寡头垄断环境中合法运作的行为。

I've never seen anything personally illegal go on, but I see lots of behavior that is legal to operate in that oligopoly environment.

所以，如果你想到自己经营一家企业，而供应商只有两家，你知道，种子基因领域可能只剩下三四家公司了，这确实令人不安。

And so, it's really disconcerting if you think about running a business where your suppliers are two, you know, there's what, three, maybe four seed companies left genetics.

在牛肉加工方面，顺便说一句，小牛这一块的利润达到了历史最高水平，但他们依然担忧，因为实际上只有三到四个买家。

You're processing the cattle, which by the way, you know, at least on the calf side, it's at all time record profits, but they're still concerned because you only have realistically three or four buyers.

生猪行业高度集中，家禽行业也非常集中，化肥也是如此。

Hogs are highly consolidated, chickens very consolidated, fertilizer.

所以，这可能是我们焦虑的一个原因。

So that's probably one of the angst we have.

政策是焦虑的另一个重要因素，因为如果没有这些补贴，我们也不知道它们是否会到来。

Policy is another big piece of the angst because we're I think without these payments, we don't know whether those are gonna come or not.

去年这些补贴支撑了许多农场。

That's floated a lot of farms in the last year.

因此这非常令人不安，因为政策可能在不同政府之间变化。

And so that's very disconcerting because you could change administration to administration.

你无法对冲这种风险，也无法预知数字会是什么样子。

You can't hedge that or know what the numbers are gonna look like.

充满了许多不确定性。

Lots of uncertainty.

我猜也是。

I bet.

你对你客户有什么建议吗？

Do you have one piece of advice for your client?

比如，现在就是现在这个环境，好吧。

Like, right now is right now in this environment, like, okay.

他们就是这么告诉你的。

They that's what they're telling you.

你现在建议他们怎么做？

What are you telling them to do right now?

我们之前已经讨论过，要以积极的态度看待这些意外之喜，适当为明年对冲一下，因为我们现在正处于新作价水平。

Well, one thing we as we already talked about is look at these gift horses in a good way and hedge a little bit off for next year because we we are we are at new crop levels.

在交易员术语中，新作价指的是明年秋天的价位，而这种价位我们已经很久没见过了。

We describe new crop as next fall in in trader language at numbers that we haven't seen for a while.

所以，不妨抓住这个机会，看看会发生什么。

So let's go ahead and take advantage of that and see what happens.

你们很可能非常清楚，原油和玉米的关联性极强。

As you folks probably very well know, crude and corn are incredibly correlated.

我认为它们的R平方值超过95。

I think they have an r squared north of 95.

在我们一些非常紧密的关系中，我们会让生产者在周日晚上，当隔夜市场开盘时，坐在他们的扶手椅里，经历完一个充满疯狂新闻的周末，大家都在刷负面新闻后

With some of our very tight relationships, we're having producers sit in their easy chair on Sunday nights when the overnights open after a weekend of crazy news and everyone's doom scrolling and

如果

if

如果原油上涨20美分，玉米也跟着上涨20美分，而你对明年的套保还很少，那就进入你的账户，再多套保一点。

crude's up 20 and corn's up 20¢ following it, maybe if you've only have a little bit hedged for next year, go into your account and hedge a little more.

因此，我们一直在利用这些剧烈的市场波动，常常发生在奇怪的时间。

So we've been taking advantage of some of these wild market swings often at weird times.

不知为何，过去几个周日晚上都异常剧烈。

For whatever reason, the last couple Sunday nights have been absolutely wild.

是的。

Yeah.

所以请多留意一点，在过程中赢得这些小胜利。

So just pay a little bit more attention and win these little battles along the way.

称之为赢得细节。

Refer to as winning the details.

趁还能的时候，充分利用这些机会。

Take advantage of those things while you can.

是的，我认为我们在课堂上教的是纪律，对吧？

Yeah, I think what we teach in class, right, is around discipline, right?

良好的纪律和心态。

The discipline and hearts of really good.

所以要清楚自己的实际风险，根据你的风险承受能力最好地管理风险，保持稳定，对吧？

So understanding your actual risk, managing that risk off best as your risk profile, staying steady, right?

这些都是长期从事商品交易的人所做和理解的事情。

Things that people who trade commodities for a living do and understand.

此外，还有大量关于现金管理、仓储等方面的实际细节仍然存在。

And then there are huge amounts of physical details around cash management and storage and things like that that are still out there.

因此，我们正是通过这种方式强调这种纪律性方法，培养风险管理者。

So that's really where we bring out the disciplined approach around this and becoming risk managers.

我们通常最先强调的一点是，如果你作为一名生产者想实现突破，就应该成为农场的风险管理者，而不是投机者。

We always one of the first things we say is that if you wanna make a jump as a producer, you become a risk manager to the farm instead of a speculator.

这就是那些最大的公司之所以成功的原因，他们都有风险管理者。

And that's how the biggest companies, right, they have risk managers.

无论他们是商品公司，还是大量使用商品的企业，都有专门负责风险管理的人，他们关注保证金。

Whether they're commodity companies or people who use a lot of commodities, right, they have people that risk manage and they focus on margin.

因此，我们通过课程和一对一的关系，将这种纪律性带到了从未接触过此类教育的农场。

And so we've really tried to bring that discipline through our classes and through our one on one relationships out to the farm, which never had access to this type of education.

我们的业务正是由此而来——将买家所使用的纪律性思维模式引入其中。

That's where our business came in, disciplined thought process that their buyers use.

如果你看看商品领域那些历史悠久的公司，它们都极其自律。

If you look at all the companies that have been around forever in the commodity side, they're all hyper disciplined.

它们都拥有相同的文化和方法，并且都是套期保值者。

They all share the same culture and approaches, and and they're hedgers.

我们努力让这种思维方式渗透到我们的学生和客户实践中。

And and we we try to have that mindset bleed into the practice of our students and clients.

好的。

Alright.

杰夫和迈克，再次感谢你们回到《Odd Lots》节目。

Jeff and Mike, thank you once again for coming back on Odd Lots.

你们真是恰逢其时的完美嘉宾。

Truly the perfect guest at the perfect time.

非常感谢你们的到来。

So really appreciate it.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢你们邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

听到这一点真有趣，你知道，我们坐在纽约的公寓里，周日晚上刷着期货行情，其实大家都在做同样的事。

It's it's fun to hear that, you know, we're in our New York City apartments, like, doom scrolling Sunday night futures, and we're all doing the same thing.

那些身处国家中部的农民，和我们这些人，都在关注着开盘价。

The farmers out in the middle of the country and those of us, we're all we're all looking at that open.

非常感谢你。

But thank you so much.

这太精彩了。

That was a blast.

当然。

You bet.

所以，乔，这真的非常有趣。

So, Joe, that was really, really interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得尽管我们聊了很长时间，但才刚刚触及表面。

And I feel like even though we spoke for quite a while, we we've still only scratched the surface.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个很大的话题。

It's a big topic.

对吧？

Right?

但其中让我印象深刻的是土地的重要性。

But one of the things that stood out there was the importance of land.

是的。

Yes.

土地成本。

Land costs.

还有来自国外的竞争。

And also, competition from abroad.

是的。

Yes.

因为我之前真的没想过这一点。

Because I hadn't really thought about that before.

我们常听到的说法是，买土地。

We are used to hearing the phrase that, you know, buy land.

他们不再生产更多的土地了。

They're not making any any more of it.

但如果你在砍伐巴西或印度尼西亚的森林，实际上你是在增加耕地。

But if you're deforesting Brazil or Indonesia, it turns out you are making more farmland.

不。

No.

我觉得这是一个很好的观点。

I thought that was a great point.

长期以来，一直有很多关注，包括我们的彭博同事，报道中国在巴西的农业投资，以及他们如何加强这种联系。

There's been a lot of interest in reporting, including from our Bloomberg colleagues, about specifically Chinese agriculture investments in Brazil and how much they're building up that linkages.

因此，显然直到今天，正如他们所说，特朗普仍在努力促成一些大豆销售。

And so obviously, still today, as they put it, you know, Trump tries to make some soybean sales.

嗯。

Mhmm.

美国农民某种程度上掌握了主动权。

And the American farmer sort of has it.

他们可以挑拨双方，通过购买一些美国大豆来制约巴西农民等等。

They can play each other off, discipline the Brazilian farmer by buying some American beans, etcetera.

但有一个庞大的农业生态系统仍在持续增长，并且变得越来越高效。

But there is this really big farm ecosystem that continues to grow, also continues to get very productive.

他们正在使用一些顶尖的中国设备，我们知道这些设备非常优秀。

They're using some of the top of the line Chinese equipment, which we know is very good.

而且，是的，这将继续压低美国出口商的竞争力。

And, yeah, that's gonna continue to undercut the American exporter.

你认为农业的演变和生产力的革命，会成为对其他人、对白领阶层的AI发展的一个好类比吗？

Do you think the farming evolution and the productivity revolution is gonna be a good analogy for AI for everyone else, for the white collar working class.

你知道，我不确定。

You know, it's I don't know.

可能不会。

Probably not.

但这确实很有趣。

But it is interesting.

事实上，今天还真有件事发生了。

There was actually something out literally today.

我觉得有家对冲基金发布了一篇文章，试图反驳一些悲观的预测。

I think some hedge fund put a thing, like, trying to push back some of the doom scenarios.

他们说，你看，我们过去曾高度依赖农业，后来农业衰退了，但我们有了其他工作，等等。

And they're like, oh, you know, we used to be so much agriculture based, then it went away, but we have other jobs, etcetera.

但那只是单一的一个行业。

But that was, like, one sector.

你知道吧？

You know?

我不太认同这种历史类比，即技术只影响一个行业。

Like, I'm not very, like, I'm not very comforted by any historical analogy where the technology just applies to one sector.

他们说，比如，自动取款机出现后，银行柜员并没有消失。

They're like, oh, like, bank tellers didn't disappear after the ATM was introduced.

那只是一种技术。

There was one technology.

我们谈论的是整个知识体系。

And we're talking about the whole knowledge.

我们谈论的是，比如说，

We're talking about, like,

整个人类大脑被复制。

the entire the human brain being replicated.

我不是那个意思。

So I'm not no.

我不是那种人。

I'm not that.

我对这种说法并不感到太安心。

I don't take too much comfort from that.

好吧。

Alright.

这很糟糕。

It's bad.

这对农民来说很艰难。

And it's tough for farmers.

是的。

Yes.

不是。

No.

这正是我的观点。

That's my that's my point.

我的观点是，小规模农民的经历可能会降临到我们每个人身上，因为这仅仅关乎规模和资本投入。

My point is that the experience of small scale farmers could be coming to all of us because it's it's just gonna be about scale and capital investment and

对。

Yeah.

你的拖拉机有多大。

How big your tractor is.

我知道。

I know.

好吧。

Alright.

我们就到这里吧？

Shall we leave it there?

我们就到这里吧。

Let's leave it there.

这是《奇思妙想播客》的又一期节目。

This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast.

我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。

I'm Tracy Allaway.

你可以关注特蕾西·阿拉韦。

You can follow me at Tracy Allaway.

我是乔·维森塔尔。

And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.

你可以关注我，账号是theStalwart。

You can follow me theStalwart.

关注迈克和杰夫。

Follow Mike and Jeff.

他们在Agris学院。

They're at Agris Academy.

关注我们的制作人：Kermin Rodriguez（@Kermin Armen）、Dashiell Bennett（@Dashbot）和Kale Brooks（@Kale Brooks）。

Follow our producers, Kermin Rodriguez at Kermin Armen, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks.

如需获取更多Odd Lots内容，请访问bloomberg.com/oddlots，那里有我们所有节目的每日简报。

And for more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com/oddlots where we have a daily newsletter on all of episodes.

你还可以在我们的Discord频道discord.gg/oddlots中24/7全天候讨论这些话题。

And you could chat about all of these topics twenty four seven in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

如果你喜欢Odd Lots，喜欢我们做的这些农业主题节目，请在你最喜欢的播客平台上给我们留下好评。

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we do these agricultural episodes, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

另外，如果你是Bloomberg的订阅用户，可以免费收听我们所有的节目，没有任何广告。

And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free.

你只需要在Apple Podcasts上找到Bloomberg频道，并按照那里的说明操作即可。

All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我是巴里·里特尔茨，诚邀您收听我的《商业大师》播客。

I'm Barry Ritholtz inviting you to join me for the Masters in Business podcast.

每周，我们都会为您带来与塑造市场、投资和商业的人物的精彩对话。

Every week, we bring you fascinating conversations with the people who shape markets, investing, and business.

CEO、基金经理、亿万富翁、诺贝尔奖得主、交易员、分析师、经济学家——所有影响市场动态的人，无论您是否持有股票、债券、房地产、大宗商品或加密货币，都绝对需要聆听这些对话。

CEOs, fund managers, billionaires, Nobel laureates, traders, analysts, economists, everybody that affects what's going on in the market, whether you own stock, bonds, real estate, commodities, crypto, you really need to hear these conversations.

有时是像理查德·塞勒或罗伯特·席勒这样的行为学家。

Sometimes it's behaviorists like Dick Thaler or Bob Schiller.

有时是像彼得·林奇、比尔·米勒、雷·达利奥这样的基金经理。

Sometimes it's fund managers like Peter Lynch, Bill Miller, Ray Dalio.

有时是像迈克尔·刘易斯这样的作家，他著有《大空头》和《点球成金》。

Sometimes it's authors, Michael Lewis, author of the big short, and money ball.

无论对话内容如何，这些人物每周都在推动市场变化。

Regardless of the conversation, these are the folks that move markets each week.

这就是由我巴里主持的《商业大师》播客。

That's the masters in business podcast with me, Barry.

奥尔茨。

Oltz.

在Apple、Spotify或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

那些没有按照圣约翰·德·上帝要求行事的人，通常都会消失。

People who didn't do what John of God wanted them to do, they usually disappeared.

圣约翰·德·上帝曾是巴西最著名的灵性疗愈师。

John of God was once Brazil's most famous spiritual healer.

但在本系列有限播客中，我们将揭开他那建立在信仰与恐惧之上的全球帝国背后的黑暗真相。

But in this limited series podcast, we uncover the darker truth behind his global empire of faith and fear.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《圣约翰·德·上帝》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is John of God.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.