Robinhood首席执行官弗拉德·特内夫谈代币化与万物预测市场

有一些这样的情况。

There's things like that.

听起来都挺不错的。

That all sounds nice.

我预见到一个潜在的利益冲突，我想请你跟我谈谈。

I foresee a potential conflict of interest that I'd like you to talk to me about.

在传统的风投基金中，这一点非常明确。

In a traditional VC fund, it's pretty obvious.

目标就是赚很多钱。

Like, the goal is to make a lot of money.

对吧？

Right?

你进行投资，希望它们增值。

You, like, make investments and you want them to go up.

让我觉得，尤其是听到RVI里那些公司的名字时，它们都特别吸引人。

It strikes me, and especially when hearing the names of the companies in RVI, it's like they're very sexy names.

这些是私有公司中相当于家喻户晓的名字，比如Boom和Databricks等等。

They're the household names to the extent that that exists within private companies and Boom and Databricks, etcetera.

在我看来，传统的风投基金似乎会以追求最高收益为目标，包括投资那些从未被人听说过的企业。

It seems to me like the traditional VC fund, like you're going to optimize for making the most money, the best returns, including names that no one has ever heard of.

我为什么不能认为Robinhood的投资组合是为了提升大众认知度而优化的呢？

Why should I not think that Robinhood's portfolio has been optimized for retail awareness?

不是为了最佳回报，而是为了挑选那些最能触发人们投资欲望的公司——因为人们听过它们的名字，觉得它们很酷，但未必是投资上最优的选择？

Not for the best returns, but for the collection of companies that will spark the most triggers in people's heads to get them invested because they've heard of them and they're sexy and not necessarily the best options out there in terms of investing?

我的意思是，首先，我们的激励机制是让这家公司表现良好。

Well, I mean, first of all, we are incented to make this firm perform well.

对。

Okay.

对吧？

Right?

我们每个人都会看到的。

We everyone will see it.

这将会高度公开。

It's gonna be highly public.

回报会明明白白地摆在那儿。

The returns will just be out there.

而且，你知道，我们有受托责任。

And, you know, we have a fiduciary obligation.

我们聘请了一位出色的基金经理，并且对所有这些交易进行极其严格的评估。

We've got a great fund manager that we've hired, and we're underwriting all of these deals extremely rigorously.

我认为你对这类事情最大的担忧其实是逆向选择。

I think the biggest worry that you have with things like this is actually adverse selection.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

你是不是只会参与那些急需资金、走投无路的公司的交易？

Are you just gonna get into the deals of the companies that need the money and are desperate for it?

对。

Right.

这通常是新事物会遇到的情况。

This is what you run into with, like, new things typically.

它是

It's

就像是，是的。

like Yeah.

我什么时候开始

When am I gonna start

关注我认为的事情呢？因为我之前在另一期节目中提到过。

looking at what I think because I've got like, I mentioned this on another episode.

有人跟我说，乔伊，有人正在出售一些Anthropic的股份，对此有兴趣。

Someone was like, Joey, someone is selling some anthropic shares with this interest.

我不会投资我所覆盖的私募市场公司，所以我不会这么做。

I'm not investing in companies I cover in the private market, so I'm not going do it.

但我总是想，如果有人愿意卖给我，那他们一定非常想脱手。

But I always have the thought, if someone's offering to sell it to me, they must really want to

因为他们是在向我们要钱，

get like they're asking us for money,

这是个坏迹象。

it's bad sign.

他们把股权提供给乔，这是个坏迹象。

They're offering the equity to Joe, that's a bad sign.

这不一定是坏迹象，但这是逆向选择——当股权开始分配给散户时，已经有很多人决定退出了。

I not necessarily a bad sign, but that adverse selection of, like, by the time it's getting allocated to retail, like, a bunch of people have decided to part with it.

我们必须反过来想这个问题。

We have to flip that on its head.

实际上，我们参与的所有交易都是竞争激烈的交易。

And, actually, all of the deals that we've gotten into have been competitive deals.

我们得努力争取这些配额。

Like, we've had to work for these allocations.

你知道，我有很多朋友是风险投资家。

You know, I have had I have a lot of friends that are venture capitalists.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得其中一些人，我一直都在谈论这个想法——我们想进入市场，真正开始和你们竞争，但他们从来都没当真。

And I think some of them like, I I've been talking about this for a while, this general idea of we wanna get in and actually start competing with you guys, you know, and they never took me seriously.

但后来我们开始获得一些他们也想参与的配额和项目，于是我开始接到他们的电话，他们告诉我，嘿。

But then we started, you know, getting allocations and deals that they wanted allocations in, and I've started getting calls and they've been telling me, hey.

Robinhood Ventures 是一个真正的实体。

This Robinhood Ventures is a real thing.

我现在得认真对待你们了。

I have to contend with you now.

所以，对我们迄今为止获得的这些公司，我感到非常自豪。

So I think we're we're very proud of the companies that we've gotten thus far.

想

Think

你提到其中一个

You made the point that one of

的

the

缺点是流动性，这在私募市场将始终是一个现象。

drawbacks is liquidity, which is always going to be a phenomenon in private markets.

另一个缺点是投资者对此一无所知。

Another drawback to this is that the investor doesn't know anything.

没有10-Q报表，也没有财报电话会议之类的。

There's no 10 Qs, there's no earnings calls or anything like that.

你并不清楚，好吧，你只是持有一家私人公司的一小部分，无论是通过代币还是通过RVI。

You don't know, okay, you own some tiny slice of a private company, whether via a token or whether via RVI.

你并不真正了解总股本是多少。

You don't really know what the share count is.

你也不知道他们这个季度给员工分配了多少，因为他们没有义务去考虑这些。

You don't know how much have they allocated to employees this quarter because they're under no obligation to think that.

你认为我们正在走向这样一个世界吗？投资者可以通过某种工具接触到几乎所有东西，但与此同时，他们对所投资的公司了解得却越来越少？

Are we heading towards a world, do you think, in which the trade off is like, okay, investors can get access to almost everything via some instrument, but are we heading to a world where the flip side is and they're gonna know a lot less about the companies that they've invested in?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

我不担心我们推出这个产品时带来的创新——比如私人公司详情页面。

I don't worry about innovations that we've we're we're putting out there with the launch of this offering is private company detail pages.

你实际上可以在Robinhood上搜索这些私人公司，并查看所有相关信息。

So you'll actually be able to search for the private companies themselves in Robinhood and see all of the information.

但他们不会像传统那样提供收入、盈利等所有信息，他们不会提供这些内容。

But they're not gonna, like they're, like, revenues, like, earning, like, all the traditional like, they're not

这些信息是公开可得的，只是公司选择分享的部分，但所有内容都集中在一个地方，里面有很多有用的信息。

It's publicly available information, what they've chosen to share, but it's all in one place, and you get a lot of useful stuff in there.

你可以看到估值历史。

You see the valuation history.

好的。

Alright.

所以，你可以看到像Databricks这样的公司的图表。

So, you can see, like, you know, the chart of companies like Databricks, for example.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为现在有大量信息可供参考。

And I think there's just a lot of information out there.

我的意思是，如果你对比今天投资一家私营公司和八十年代散户投资上市公司，我敢说现在的信息更多。

I mean, if you think about investing in a private company today versus a retail investor investing in a public company, say, in the eighties, I'd venture to say there's more information.

你还能看到消费类产品的应用商店分析数据。

You have like app store analytics data for consumer products.

这些数据都是公开的。

They're out there.

许多后期阶段的私营公司都在定期进行类似上市公司的信息披露和审计，因为这些公司并不是价值一亿美元的小公司。

A lot of these late stage privates are doing public company like disclosures and audits on a regular basis because this isn't, you know, these aren't $100,000,000 companies.

这些公司中，有些估值高达数千亿甚至数百亿美元。

These are, you know, some of them are in the hundreds of billions of valuations, tens of billions.

大概15年前，这些公司早就应该上市了。

Probably 15 years ago, these would have gone public a while ago.

所以，总的来说，我们最初从一些家喻户晓的名字开始，当然也有例外，这些公司已经在各自行业的前沿站稳脚跟，它们是最接近上市的公司。

So, I mean, we've generally started with household names, with some exceptions, that are already established at the frontiers of the industries, and these are, like, the companies that would be closest to being public.

所以，如果你想想公开上市、IPO候选公司，比如Robinhood Ventures，它正在逐步向更早期阶段延伸。

So if you think about, you know, public company, IPO access candidate, Robinhood Ventures, Robinhood Ventures is filling it's like gradually extending backward.

实际上，如果非要我指出最让我兴奋的事情，那就是最终能触及最早期的阶段。

Actually, the thing I'm most excited about, if I had to point to something, it's eventually getting to the earliest possible stages.

比如，零售投资者应该参与种子轮投资。

Like, think retail should be funding seed rounds.

一家公司的首轮资金，应该有零售投资者的参与。

Like, the first capital in a company should have a retail participation.

我们从客户那里听到的一个担忧是，这些公司已经处于较后期阶段了，我该如何获得更早期项目的投资机会，以便能抢占先机？

And I think we hear from the customers, one of the concerns is, well, these companies are fairly late stage, how do I get exposure to something that's earlier so I can get in on the ground floor?

我认为这是我们非常期待深入探索和推进的方向。

And I think that's something we're excited to dig into and work on.

这会像一个GoFundMe的竞争对手吗？

Would that be like a GoFundMe competitor or something?

因为有一些

Because there are some

Kickstarter。

Kickstarter.

你指的是Kickstarter。

You're Kickstarter.

我就是这个意思。

That's what I'm thinking.

我想到的是GoFundMe。

I'm GoFundMe.

这些产品的区别在于，你实际上不会获得任何股权。

The difference is with those products, you don't actually get any ownership.

你是在进行一种

You're giving you're making a

捐赠，有时候你能拿到早期产品，我想，但也就这样了。

donation That's sometimes you get early products, I guess, but that's about it.

是的。

Yeah.

但他们想要的是所有权。

But, what they want is ownership.

他们希望在一家公司估值约为一千万美元时进行投资。

They want to invest in something when it's at a valuation of say 10,000,000.

是的。

Yeah.

如果它涨到一千亿美元，那就是。

And if it gets to 10,000,000,000, that's a

然后他们会发现，这些公司中有99%最终归零。

And then they'll learn that 99% of those companies go to zero.

看来他们必须自己亲身经历才能明白这个道理。

That's Like they have to learn that lesson for themselves, it sounds like.

嗯，这就是我们的用武之地，对吧？

Well, know, that's where we come in, right?

我们认为我们可以找出哪些是合适的交易，我们的目标是为客户提供优质的企业。

And we think that we can, like, can figure out what the right deals are, and what we intend to do is offer great companies to customers.

说到这一点，再回到风投基金，我预见的另一个问题是，市场上有大量的信息流动，你可以想象，一些竞争对手可能会认为，这些信息流可能会影响基金的实际管理方式。

Well, on this note, and just going back to the Ventures Fund as well, I mean, one other issue I foresee is that you see a lot of flow and information in the market, and you can imagine some of your competitors potentially thinking that, you know, maybe some of that flow would inform how the fund is actually managed.

某种程度上，你们开始有点像投资银行了，拥有庞大的信息流业务，从中获取市场洞察，同时又管理着投资基金。

I mean, in some respects, you're starting to get a little bit investment bank y, where you have this huge flow business that you can glean market insights from, and then you also have managed funds.

你们是如何将这两项业务分离开来的？

How are you sort of hiving off those two activities?

或者你们是如何思考这些信息流数据，将如何实际影响基金的管理的？

Or how are you thinking about how, like, the data and the flow data that you see, how will that actually inform management?

是的。

Yeah.

当然，其中一个优势是我们了解散户投资者的兴趣所在。

I mean, certainly one of the advantages is we know what retail investors are interested in.

是的

Yeah.

总的来说，我们努力提供人们感兴趣的东西。

And by and large, what we try to do is give people things they're interested in.

你知道，如果他们对此不感兴趣，那产品就不会成功。

You know, if they're not interested in it, it's not gonna be a successful product.

所以我认为这是我们在思考这个产品时的一个重要差异点。

So I think that's a big differentiator as we think about this product.

关于基金的管理，它有一个独立的董事会，成员都很优秀，还有独立的审计和合规体系。

In terms of how the fund is managed, it has a separate board with great board members, separate, you know, everything auditing, compliance.

所以它就像是罗宾汉内部的一个独立公司。

So it's like a company within Robinhood, the management company.

对。

Yeah.

实际上，这就相当于设立了一道防火墙。

So there's a Chinese wall, effectively.

嗯，你知道，我不确定这些法律问题，甚至不确定这个词用得是否恰当

Well, you know, don't know if legal questions that I don't even know if that word is appropriate

我本不该说出来的，抱歉。

to was use gonna say it.

我认为我们不应该再使用这个词了，抱歉。

I don't think we're supposed to use that anymore, so I'm sorry.

但当然，你可以想象，我们所做的一切都受到大量专业人士的严格监管和审查。

But, yeah, of course, you can imagine everything that we do is highly regulated and scrutinized by armies of professionals.

所以，是的，这就是我要说的一点。

So, yeah, that's that's the one thing.

到目前为止，我们已经非常成熟了，必须一切按规矩来。

We we're so established at this point that we have to play everything by the books.

新闻在周末也不会停止。

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

环境不断变化，而彭博社是掌握这一切动态的最佳去处。

Context changes constantly, and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

每周六和周日，请收听全新的《彭博周末》。

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

我是克里斯蒂娜·拉菲尼。

I'm Christina Raffini.

我们会为您带来最新头条、深度分析和重磅访谈，所有这些故事都将陪伴您的周末时光。

We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews, all the stories that hit home on your days off.

我是丽莎·马特奥。

And I'm Lisa Mateo.

请观看并收听《彭博周末》，了解关于商业、生活方式、人物与文化的深刻而富有启发性的对话。

Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.

每周六早晨，我们会回顾过去一周的事件，分析市场和世界发生的变化。

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

而在周日，我们会采访记者、专栏作家和重要的政治人物，帮助您为即将到来的一周做好准备。

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead.

从您一醒来就开始收看我们，并随身携带我们，无论您的周末计划带您去往何处。

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

请在彭博电视台观看我们的节目。

Watch us on Bloomberg Television.

请在彭博电台收听我们的节目。

Listen on Bloomberg Radio.

通过彭博商业应用程序在线直播观看节目，或收听我们的播客。

Stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast.

这就是《彭博这个周末》，每周六和周日东部时间早上7点开始。

That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7AM eastern.

让我们的节目成为您在彭博电视台、电台以及您收听播客的任何平台上的周末固定节目。

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

几十年来，人们从世界各地赶来见约翰·德·上帝，渴望寻求医生无法提供的治愈方法。

For decades, people traveled across the world to see John of God, desperate for cures no doctor could offer.

当他们到达时，看到了无法解释的事情。

And when they arrived, they saw things they couldn't explain.

这是真实的。

This is real.

这家伙真的在做手术，这简直是个奇迹。

This guy's actually doing surgery, and it's a miracle.

直到那一刻之前，我从不相信奇迹是真实的。

I never believed that miracles were real until that point.

但在那些崇拜的人群背后，却隐藏着更加黑暗的东西。

But behind those adoring crowds was something much darker.

我从未去的原因之一是

One of the reasons why I never went to

我看到至少有五六个持枪的男人随身保护着他。

the police is because I saw at least five or six men with guns everywhere he went.

这一点对我来说再清楚不过了，就像你的嘴一样。

That was clear to me, like, your mouth.

别张嘴。

Don't open your mouth.

别说话。

Don't say anything.

我是主持人马丁娜·卡斯特罗。

I'm your host, Martina Castro.

在播客《两面人：圣约翰》中，我们将回顾一位声称能施行奇迹、并让来自世界各地的人们深信不疑的人。

And in the podcast, Two Faced, John of God, we'll look back on a man who claimed he could perform miracles and got people from all around the world to believe him.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《两面人：圣约翰》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is Two Faced, John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我们可以聊聊预测市场吗？我们对这个话题有很多问题。

Can we talk about prediction markets for We a little have a lot of questions about this.

你和Kalshi有合作关系，所以人们可以通过Robinhood平台访问Kalshi的市场。

You have a relationship with Kalshi, so people can access Kalshi's markets through the Robinhood platform.

在试图理解谁能在预测市场中赚钱时，是Kalshi上形成的流动性池和活跃度更重要，还是你在Robinhood平台上的用户分布更重要？

When trying to understand who is going to make money in prediction markets, which is more valuable, the liquidity pool and activity that emerged on Kalshi, or the distribution that you have through Robinhood?

那么，哪一个是更难复制的呢？

And like which is the harder thing to replicate here?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这本质上是两种不同的业务。

I mean, it's fundamentally two different businesses.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

你可以把Kalshi在这个案例中看作类似于股票和期权市场中的交易所。

You can think of Kalshi in this case playing a role similar to an exchange in the equities and options markets.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，这主要是机构业务，尽管在商品期货交易委员会的监管框架下，有趣的是，交易所也能直接面向消费者，这在传统股票市场中是看不到的。

So, it's like institutional business, predominantly, although in CFTC land, it's interesting that the exchanges also have the ability to go direct to consumer, which you don't see in traditional equities.

这是一个匹配订单的业务。

And it's a business where you're matching orders.

因此，你需要与做市商、专业交易员合作，同时也面向散户。

So you're working with market makers, you're working with professional traders, you have retail as well.

要在这一领域获胜，你必须拥有卓越的技术、低延迟，还要擅长产品上线和维护市场完整性。

And to win there, you have to have great technology, low latency, you have to be good about listing products, maintaining market integrity.

这是一项复杂的业务。

And it's like a complex business.

对吧？

Right?

这就是为什么在传统资产领域获得规模的公司价值高达数十亿美元，有时甚至更多。

And that's why the businesses that have gotten scale and traditional assets are worth, you know, tens of billions of dollars, sometimes more.

我们的商业模式略有不同。

We have a slightly different business model.

看待Robinhood的方式是，我们是一个金融超级应用。

The way to think about Robinhood is we're a financial super app.

我们应当成为您存放资金和资产的最佳场所，我们正在开发产品，以确保您的越来越多的财务生活——理想情况下是全部——都集中在Robinhood上。

We should be the best place to keep your money and your assets, and we're building products to make sure more and more of your financial life, ideally all of it, is on Robinhood.

所以，如果您想交易预测市场、期权、期货，您是活跃交易者，我们应当获得您100%的活跃交易活动，我们为此而竞争。

So if you wanna trade prediction markets, options, futures, you're an active trader, we should get a 100% of your active trading activity and we compete for that.

我们还希望拥有您的退休账户、孩子的托管账户、信托账户，最终还有您的所有共同基金，以及通过我们的卡片产品实现的消费活动、通过支票和储蓄账户实现的银行业务。

We also want your retirement account, your kids custodial accounts, your trusts, all of your mutual funds eventually, your spending activity through our card products, your banking through checking and savings.

所以，这真正关乎我们如何掌控整个财务关系。

So it's it's really about how do we own the entire financial relationship.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在有优势且认为能发挥独特价值的地方进行垂直整合，但这并不是一个专注的交易所业务。

And we vertically integrate where it makes sense, where we think we have a unique advantage, but it's not like a a focused, you know, exchange business.

不过，我应该说，我们已经达成了一项协议。

Although, you know, I should say we entered into an agreement.

我们收购了Rothera的股份，它以前叫LedgerX，是一家DCE。

We've acquired a stake in Rothera, which is formerly LedgerX, which is a DCM.

因此，我们确实打算在预测市场业务方面实现垂直整合。

So we do intend to actually vertically integrate the prediction market side of the business.

我们经常听到有人为预测市场辩护，认为对于机构投资者来说，这可能是一种对冲你现有风险敞口的方式。

So one of the things we often hear in defense of prediction markets is this idea that, like, well, actually, if you're an institutional investor, this could be a way to hedge some exposure that you have.

比如，如果你是一家航空公司，而燃油是你的一大笔开支，你可能会对伊朗发生的事情下注。

So I don't know if you're an airline and a huge part of your expense account is oil, maybe you would take a position on what's happening in Iran or something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know that

或者如果你是个人投资者。

Or if you're a retail investor.

这本来是我接下来要问的问题。

Well, this was going to be my next question.

我知道你主要看到的是散户投资者的行为，但你有没有发现任何证据表明，人们在系统性地思考这个问题，而不是仅仅押注于那些恰好吸引他们注意的特定合约？

I know that you see mostly how retail investors are behaving, but do you see any evidence that people are thinking through it that systemically versus just placing a bet on whatever particular contract kind of catches their eye?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，有很多报道讲述过一些人如何极其科学地进行交易。

I mean, I think there's lots of stories out there that have been covered about people being incredibly scientific about all of their trading.

而预测市场为你提供了广阔的平台来实现这一点。

And prediction markets gives you a wide surface area to do that under.

我的意思是，你当然有体育合约，大家都喜欢谈论这个，但还有经济类合约。

I mean, you have obviously the sports contracts, which everyone likes to talk about, but economics.

你甚至有一个关于外星人公开披露的合约，这真是我最喜欢的合约之一。

You've got a contract on alien disclosure, which I really that's one of my favorite ones.

我最后一次查看时，美国政府今年披露外星人存在的概率是22%。

Last I checked, 22% chance that there will be alien disclosure by the US government this year.

而且还在上升，我觉得。

And rising, I think.

最近在所有这些之后有所上升

Rising recently after all the

当然，关于这个确实有一些讨论。

Well, there's been some some chatter about it for sure.

但是，是的。

But, yeah.

我的意思是，我认为确实有人在详细研究这些事情。

I mean, I think that, like, there's people out there that are studying these things in detail.

他们在构建模型。

They're building models.

你会发现，任何新兴市场在获得全面的机构参与之前，都会存在更多机会。

And what you find is with any nascent market, before you get, like, full institutional participation, there's more opportunities.

我认为我们现在还处于这些机会被大玩家套利之前的状态。

And I think now we're before the point where these opportunities are arbitraged by by the big players.

我最近问了商品期货交易委员会主席迈克尔·塞利格这个问题，如果实话实说，我觉得他的回答是否定的，所以也许我来问问你。

I asked this question recently to CFTC chairman Michael Selig, and I think we kind of got a no answer, if I'm being honest, so maybe I'll try it with you.

以你今天的理解，Robinhood 是否在法律上被禁止设置一个大型转盘直播，并让人们对它是红色还是黑色进行期货事件合约交易？

As you understand it today, would there be any limitation legally on Robinhood setting up a livestream of a giant roulette wheel and having people make futures event contracts on whether it's red or black?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们目前的政策是要求这些合约必须基于真实事件。

I mean, currently, our policy has been to have them be backed by real events.

所以我们不想做那种我们从未涉足过的衍生类预测市场。

So we don't wanna do, like, derivative we haven't done any derivative prediction markets.

而且这类形式还有多种不同情况。

And there's there's different forms of that as well.

比如，你有预测市场，然后还有对这个预测市场本身走势进行预测的市场。

Like, you have, like, prediction markets, and then you have a prediction market on how this prediction market is is gonna go.

例如，Polymarket 曾有一个市场，内容是超级碗开球时的抛硬币，你可以押注正面或反面，开球前交易价格为50%，然后开球后就变成了

For example, Polymarket had a market where it was the coin toss at the Super Bowl, you could bet on heads or tails, and was trading at 50% before the toss, and then it went to

100%，这看起来非常像赌博。

one It 100 has seems very much like gambling.

对吧？

Right?

既然如此，那还何必举办超级碗呢？

Well, why even bother having the Super Bowl at that point?

如果人们愿意赌硬币正反面，为什么不直接搞一个持续的抛硬币呢？

If people are willing to, like, bet money on a coin toss, why not just have a continuous coin toss?

干脆别办超级碗了。

Why just forget the Super Bowl.

就搞一个抛硬币机器，让人们对它进行交易。

Just have a coin tossing machine and let people trade on it.

有什么实际原因阻止你这么做吗？

Is there, like, is there anything actually, like, stopping you from doing that?

我不确定。

I'm I'm not sure.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我得去查一下这个。

I mean, I'd I'd have to look into that.

我们不提供任何这类合约。

We don't offer any of those contracts.

我个人呢，是个前交易员。

I personally you know, I'm a former trader.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我大概不会去交易这些。

Probably wouldn't trade those.

我觉得人们交易它们的目的更多是为了娱乐。

I think the purposes for people trading them is is probably more entertainment.

但这并不意味着所有的预测市场都如此，当然。

But, yeah, that's not to say that all prediction markets are like that, and Sure.

而且我并不反对创新，因为正是通过创新我们才能发现新事物。

And I'm not against people innovating because that's how we discover things.

对吧？

Right?

一般来说，我支持人们尝试新事物，看看会发生什么，只要没有人受到伤害，并且市场完整性、投资者保护等都得到了保障。

Like, generally speaking, I'm in favor of people trying new things and seeing what happens as long as nobody is getting heard and, you know, market integrity and and investor protection and all of that is being upheld.

关于与Kalshi的关系，你希望成为一站式资金平台。

Just on the relationship with Kalshi, like, you wanna be this one stop shop for all money.

presumably，你知道，Polymarket会推出其美国版本。

Presumably, you know, Polymarket is gonna build out its US version.

我不确定具体是哪个州，但其他竞争对手呢。

I don't know exactly what state is that, but other competitors.

这会是独家的吗？还是你的目标是让Robinhood的用户可以在任何平台上交易预测？

Is that going to be an exclusive thing, or will you is the goal so that a user of Robinhood can trade predictions on any platform?

是的。

Yeah.

所以即使目前，我们的关系也连接了多个预测市场的后端交易所。

So even currently, our relationship we we connect to multiple prediction market back end exchanges.

Kalshi 明显更大，因为他们拥有那个。

Kalshi, obviously, is the larger because they have the Yeah.

活跃的体育合约，而且他们进展迅速。

The vibrant sports contracts, and and they've been moving fast.

我们还有 ForecastX，它是盈透证券的预测市场子公司。

We also have ForecastX, which is the prediction markets subsidiary of Interactive Brokers.

正如我之前提到的，我们还有 Rothera，那个。

And as I mentioned before, we've got Rothera, which is Yeah.

那是我们的。

Which is ours.

而且，我们还在继续与这些人沟通。

And also, we're continuing to talk to these guys.

每个人都希望获得接触 Robinhood 客户并把他们的订单发到我们这里的机会。

Everyone's interested in, you know, having access to Robinhood customers sending our orders there.

我认为这种情况的发展方式类似于我们的其他资产类别，我们会优先考虑客户能获得最佳执行和合约多样性的平台，并将订单发送到那里。

And I think the way this plays out is similar to our other asset classes where we prioritize for where the customer's gonna get the best execution and also contract variety, and we'll send our orders there.

我认为最终的结果是会有很多不同的交易目的地。

And I think where this ends up is you'll have lots and lots of destinations.

你会有智能订单路由。

You'll have smart order routing.

是的。

Mhmm.

而这些合约将会越来越可互换。

And the contracts, think, will be increasingly fungible.

所以，在某个时候，会有一种方式可以跨账本进行交易，真正地转移风险。

So at some point, there's gonna be a way to cross books and actually offload risk.

你会在这里有一个选举合约，在那里也有一个选举合约，但会有一层机制让你能够实际操作——即使它们在不同的交易所，也能互相兑换。

And, you know, you'll have the election contract here and election contract there, and there will be a layer where you can actually, like even though there's technically on different exchanges, exchange one for the other.

但请详细说说这个，因为这本来就是我接下来想问的问题。

But say more about this because this was actually gonna be my next question.

但当你思考什么才能构成一个好的预测市场时，我们常听到的抱怨是：流动性不够。

But when you think about what makes a good prediction market, the complaint that we often hear is, well, there's just not enough size.

合约中的流动性不足。

There's not enough liquidity in the contract.

所以我想象，你合作的主要对象就是像Kalshi这样的最大平台。

So I imagine a big component of who you're partnering with is just like the largest platform that's out there, like a Kalshi.

但你能具体说说，你认为什么样的预测市场对投资者来说是好的吗？

But can you describe, like, actually what you think makes a good prediction market for investors?

比如，每个市场的优缺点是什么？

Like, what are the pros and cons of each one?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为成交量、流动性和合约选择是关键因素。

I mean, I think volume and liquidity and contract selection are the big things.

合约选择，客户想要多样化的选择。

Contract selection, customers want selection.

他们想要丰富的种类。

They want variety.

他们希望能够自由探索。

They wanna be able to explore.

交易者都看重这一点，因为他们可以交易更多品种，同时也适用于普通用户浏览市场、了解事件发生的概率。

And both traders value this because they can trade more things, but also the casual use case of just looking at the markets and figuring out what the odds of events are.

流动性显然能提升市场表现。

Liquidity, obviously, improves things.

它不仅能改善价格，还能提高大额订单成交的概率，降低交易成本。

It improves the prices and also improves the odds of getting filled if you bring in an order with size and costs, transaction costs.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我认为这些基本上就是主要因素。

Mean, I I I think those are basically the the main things.

在预测市场中，复制那些我们并不视为事件合约的东西非常容易。

It's very easy with prediction markets to replicate things that we don't think of as event contracts.

因此，你可以在预测市场中重建出看起来像股票或期货的合约。

So you can recreate a line that looks like equity or futures on a prediction market.

可以有，我很好奇，而且我

Could have And I'm curious, And I

我认为这些产品非常有用。

think some of those products are very useful.

是的，这正是我猜测的。

Yeah, that's exactly what was guessing.

你是否认为，特别是从交易员的角度来看，存在这样一个节点：交易所本身可能会被颠覆或取代，因为交易者可以通过这些工具获得他们想要的价格敞口，而无需与传统的股票市场层交互？

Do you see a point where particularly from the perspective of a trader, where essentially the exchange itself can be disrupted or nabsterized or something like that because they have the instruments to get the price exposure that they want without having to interact with the traditional equity layer?

我认为这有所不同。

I think it's different.

显然，目前股票敞口的成本极低。

Think that obviously equity exposure is extremely low cost right now.

是的。

Yeah.

在很大程度上得益于我们在这一领域的努力。

In large part due to our efforts in the space.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果你想买入股票，简直从未如此便宜过。

But if you wanna buy an equity, I mean, it's just never been cheaper.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

我们在股票业务上的整体盈利费率只有两个基点。

Our all in monetization on equities business is like two basis points.

所以，我不认为这具有竞争力。另外，你还拥有杠杆，对于我们的活跃交易者来说，Robinhood的保证金利率非常优厚。

So, I don't really think it's competitive with The that the other thing is you have leverage, which again, Robinhood for our active traders, great margin rates.

我的意思是，我认为我们提供了行业内最具竞争力的保证金利率，至少据我所知是这样。

I mean, the the I think the most competitive margin rates in the industry, at least that I'm aware of.

你们会为预测市场交易者提供杠杆吗？

Will you provide leverage to prediction market traders?

目前，预测市场不允许使用杠杆，但这是很多人在讨论的问题。

Right now, leverage is not permissible at prediction markets, but that's something a lot of people are talking about.

你们正在研究这个吗？

Is that something you're working on?

嗯，某种程度上我们确实在推进，主要是为了寻求清晰的监管框架，但由于这必须是交易所的产品，所以交易所本身需要先获得明确的监管指引。

Well, it's, I guess we're working on it to some degree, which is just driving towards clarity, but since that would have to be an exchange product, the exchanges would actually have to to get clarity.

但我认为这迟早会实现。

But I think it's coming.

你看，我认为市场还处于早期阶段，所以这些功能都会逐步推出。

Look, I mean, I don't think You imagine the market's still in its infancy, so you'll get all of these things introduced.

当你观察交易员的期权市场时，杠杆实际上是一个非常吸引人的特点，因为它能让你用相对较少的资金获得较大的敞口。

And when you look at the options markets for traders, the leverage is actually a very attractive element of it being able to, you know, put put in a relatively small amount of money and get large exposure.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我认为预测市场还有很多发展空间，需要大量的增长和演进，才能成为真正的机构级资产。

So, think there's a lot that prediction markets, there's a lot there's a lot of growth and a lot of evolution that's needed before it becomes like a full institutional grade asset.

但这一进程已经在进行中，我们应该相信它会发生，而且会很快发生。

But it's underway and we should assume that it's gonna happen and it's gonna happen quickly.

而且，我认为我们看待这个问题的方式很独特，因为我们实际上可能是唯一一个能将所有这些资产集中在一起的地方。

And, I think there's all sorts of we view this and we have early insight because we're actually, I think, one of the only places where you can have all these assets in one place.

我们没有看到任何相互侵蚀的情况。

We don't see any cannibalization.

交易员们非常喜欢这一点。

Traders love it.

我认为，将所有这些资产整合成一个统一的整体，是一个巨大的机会。

And I think we see an opportunity in combining all these assets into one cohesive picture.

例如，你可以想象，当你查看某只股票的详情页面时，比如特斯拉或其他公司，你还能看到与该公司相关的预测市场。

For example, you can imagine you have a particular equity in that equity detail page, say it's a Tesla or another company, you see prediction markets related to that company.

这样就能为你提供一个全面的视角，让你可以交易非常具体的产品。

And then that gives you a comprehensive view and you can trade very specific things.

我们认为收益公告领域也存在巨大机会。

We think there's a big opportunity in earnings as well.

很多人对公司的收益表现都有自己的看法。

A lot of people have thoughts on how companies are going to do with earnings.

他们有自己的模型，但股价只是对此的一个不完美proxy。

They have models, stock price is an imperfect proxy for that.

因此，每股收益和收入合约会非常有吸引力。

So the EPS and revenue contracts would be would be very attractive.

而目前，这种情况处于一种模糊状态，因为它符合证券互换的条件，属于SEC监管的产品。

And right now, that's in a little bit of a limbo because it meets the criteria of a securities based swap, which would be an SEC product.

对吧？

Right?

因此，需要进行协调统一，以清除这类产品上市的障碍，我们正在与监管机构合作，努力厘清这一点。

So harmonization is needed to clear the path for listing products like that, which we're working with the regulators and collaborating to try to figure out.

但从市场角度来看，这确实令人兴奋，因为我们还处于早期阶段，能够隐约看到它未来的发展方向。

But, yeah, it's exciting from like a market standpoint because we're in the early innings, and you can kinda see the future of how it's gonna evolve.

这将成为一个规模大得多的资产类别，更加机构化。

It's gonna be a much bigger asset class, much more institutional.

它的发展路径我认为会类似于过去出现的其他资产类别，但速度会更快。

It's evolved similar I think it'll evolve similarly, but more quickly to other asset classes that have come in in the past.

我们再回头说一下代币化股票，同意权重要吗？

Just going back to tokenized stocks for a second, does consent matter at all?

我刚才那句话听起来好像更像埃普斯坦，这可不是我的本意。

That sounded more Epstein ish than I intended it to sound like.

但如果OpenAI出来表示，我们对这件事有些保留意见。

But if an OpenAI comes out and says, We have some reservations about this.

我们有一些担忧。

We have some concerns.

这会让你在为这家特定公司提供代币时有所犹豫吗？

Would that give you pause for providing a token in that particular company?

然后，你知道，当你开始设立这些新的风险投资基金之类的时候，你在市场中的角色是怎样的。

And then, you know, your role in the market is as you start these new venture funds and things like that.

在现阶段，你可能不希望惹恼一大批私营公司。

You might not want to annoy a bunch of private companies at this stage.

你是如何平衡这些考量的？

How are you balancing those considerations?

是的。

Yeah.

这些都是我们在认真思考的问题。

These are all considerations that we're thinking through.

显然，目前我们的政策是希望获得这些公司的同意。

Obviously, right now, the policy that we have is we'd like to get the consent of the companies.

我们希望它们能够支持。

We want them to be on board.

我认为，如果从现在这个角度来思考，这里有个细微差别。

I think that if you think about it from now, here's the nuance.

假设你是一个合格的高净值个人。

Let's say you're an accredited high net worth individual.

有办法在不获得公司同意的情况下获得这些公司的敞口，对吧？

There are ways to get exposure to these companies without the company consenting, right?

他们根本不在乎，但从法律上讲，你可以成为有限合伙人，并设立一个SPV。

They just don't care, but legally you have a, you could become LP and an SPV that exists.

存在一些方式，使得公司已经失去了对股东结构的控制。

There's these ways where companies have already lost control

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们完全无法掌控自己的股东构成。

Of who their shareholder base is.

更不用说当他们上市时，你就彻底失去了对股东基础的控制。

And not to mention when they go public, you've completely lost control of your shareholder base.

我认为既然现在还处于早期阶段，我们的做法显然是希望确保一切顺利，我们不希望有人表示不希望Robinhood Ventures投资他们的公司，然后泼冷水。

I think since it's early, obviously our approach is we wanna make sure everything is We don't want anyone saying they don't want Robinhood Ventures invest in their company and throwing ice water over it.

并不是说这会永远是我们的政策，但目前我们确实采取这样的做法。

Not to say that that's gonna be the policy forever, but that's kind of the that that's the approach we're we're taking now.

你直接把你的新卡放在桌上好吗？

Do you wanna just drop your new card on the table?

我知道，天哪。

I know Oh my god.

我们其实不需要大张旗鼓地宣传那些超棒的费用。

You have we could just we don't need to do a big, like, ad for, like, all the great fee.

人们自己去查就行了，但你有这张新的白金卡。

People can look that up, but you have this new Platinum Card.

等等。

Wait.

如果他直接把信用卡拿出来，这不会是严重的操作安全问题吗？

Is this really bad opsec if he's, like, dropping his credit card?

不会。

No.

我们只是想听听听起来怎么样。

It's we wanna hear how it sounds.

这是市场上最安全的信用卡。

It's this is the most secure credit card on the market.

卡上没有你的号码。

Your number is not on it.

哦。

Oh.

好的。

Alright.

哦。

Oh.

哦。

Oh.

这太靠谱了。

That is legit.

你想拿起来看看吗？

Would you like to hold it?

我会。

I would.

是的，我要。

I yes.

所以这个

So This

很不错。

is nice.

这真的很好。

This is really nice.

我拿到了。

I got it.

市场上最重的卡片胜过Robinhood金卡。

Heaviest card on the market beats out the Robinhood gold card.

是的。

Yeah.

等等。

Wait.

实际上，现在就放下金卡。

Actually, drop the gold card now.

让我们听听区别。

Let's hear the difference.

哦，差别很大。

Oh, very different.

没人关注那张寒酸的金卡。

No one watched that puny gold.

这是放下的地方，这是放下的地方，这是放下。

Here's the Here's the Here's drop.

是的。

Yeah.

让我放下白金卡。

Let me drop the platinum one

我可以告诉你这张卡背后的理念，如果这说得通的话。

more tell you I can tell you the thesis behind this card if it makes sense.

我们希望这张卡能像007卡片一样。

We want this to be, like the James Bond card.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

它感觉像是

It feels like

如果你是詹姆斯·邦德，这张卡就适合你。

If you are James Bond, this is the card for you.

如果詹姆斯·邦德，由肖恩·康纳利饰演的那位，拥有一张信用卡，他一定会选这张。

If James Bond, Sean Connery himself were to have a credit card, he would have this card.

我认为我们不仅在卡片设计上试图传达这种感觉，如果你看看官网，也是这样的。

And I think we tried to evoke that feeling not just in the design of the card, but if you you look at the website Yeah.

我们有一个潜水员。

We have a scuba diver.

不错。

Nice.

我们还有这些漂亮的飞机。

We have, like, these nice planes.

所以，是的，我们真的

So, yeah, we we really

尝试去想，如果我拿出这张卡，我的朋友们会不会笑话我。

try If to think I pay if I pull that out, my friends won't make fun of me.

不会。

No.

我会的，乔。

I will, Joe.

你会追踪它的。

You would trace it.

如果你把它拿出来

If you pull that out

我其实真的很喜欢它。

I actually I really like it.

实际上，它有5%的餐饮返现。

Well, actually, it's got 5% dining credit.

这大概是高额度卡片里没人提供的福利。

That's probably that's nobody offers that with a high limit.

所以它的设计初衷就是让你请朋友吃饭，好吧。

So it's actually intended for you to treat your friends Okay.

然后把它拿出来用。

And take it out.

他们不会抱怨的。

They're not gonna complain.

他们不会

They're not

我付饭钱的时候，他们会取笑我。

gonna make fun of me when I'm paying for dinner.

然后我们发现，有了金卡，很多人其实已经不再使用实体卡片了。

And And then what we found was with the gold card, a lot of people a lot of people don't really use physical cards anymore.

他们用的是苹果支付。

It's Apple Pay.

但在你使用实体卡片的时刻，它更像是一种支付工具。

But the moments when you use your physical card, it's less of a payment instrument.

更像是，让我给你看看我的手表。

It's more like, let me show you my watch.

对吧？

Right?

它是一种时尚配饰。

It's a it's fashion accessory.

它是一种奢侈品。

It's a luxury good.

我不确定信用卡行业是否真的已经进化了。

And I don't know if the credit card industry is really has really evolved.

我认为iPhone也是如此，现在你有橙色的iPhone了。

I think the same degree, iPhone, you know, you have the orange iPhones now.

它是一种时尚配饰，而不是实用品。

It's it's a fashion accessory, less of a utilitarian good.

我觉得实体卡片也是如此。

And I I think physical cards the same way.

过去人们希望实体卡片尽可能轻，是的。

It used to be that people wanted physical cards that were as light as possible Yeah.

因为它们具有实用功能。

Because it served a utilitarian purpose.

你想把它放在钱包里，希望钱包轻便，这样就不会驼背。

You wanna keep it in your wallet, you want your wallet to be light so that you're not hunched over.

现在我觉得情况有点不同了。

Now I think it's a little bit different.

这是你个性的延伸。

It's an extension of your personality.

所以

So

我非常推崇日常产品中的实体感。

I'm a big fan of physicality in everyday products.

比如，还记得那个钨金立方体吗？

Like, remember the the cube, the tungsten cube?

是的。

Yeah.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

我有一个。

I have one.

有一个。

Have one.

这正是对加密货币的短暂性、无常性的一种直接回应。

Like, that was a direct response to, like, the ephemerality, ephemeralness

加密货币。

Crypto.

是的。

Yeah.

加密货币的无常性。

Of crypto.

对吧？

Right?

你想要一些实实在在的、拿在手里感觉沉重的东西，

Like, you want something that's tangible and, like, feels heavy in your

手里。

head.

我一直在跟迪帕克说，要搞一张钨金属卡片，是的。

I keep telling Deepak that a tungsten card for Yeah.

加密货币圈的人会很酷。

Crypto people would be cool.

是的。

Yeah.

去搞一个吧。

Get on that.

哦。

Oh.

你应该这么做。

You should do that.

不错的主意。

Not a bad idea.

弗拉德·特内夫，非常感谢你再次做客《Odd Lots》。

Vlad Tenev, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

谢谢。

Appreciate it.

是的。

Yeah.

总是很愉快。

Always a pleasure.

谢谢大家。

Thank you, guys.

特蕾西，我非常喜欢和弗拉德聊天。

Tracy, I love catching up with Vlad.

我的意思是，Robinhood 这家公司几乎在零售化席卷所有市场的每一件事上都遥遥领先，彻底打破了股票、期货、代币等之间的所有界限。

I mean, Robinhood is a company that is, like, so far ahead of the curve in basically everything that's happened with the retailization of every market, the complete breaking down of every distinction between what's a stock, what's a future, what's a token, etcetera.

他们正处在这一切的中心。

They're right in the middle of all of it.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

而且，这里还有一种反身性，对吧？

And also, there's a reflexivity here, right?

因为罗宾汉越大，它的产品对整个市场行为的影响就越重要。

Because the bigger Robinhood gets, the more its offerings kind of matter for the way the market itself behaves.

所以我觉得这绝对是一个值得讨论的话题。

So I think it's definitely a worthwhile discussion.

不过我得说，万物金融化确实有点反乌托邦的感觉。

I got to say though, like the financialization of everything, do find a little bit dystopian.

我记得我曾经去过一次澳门——其实从来没去过。

I remember I went to Macau once and- Never been there.

我本来非常期待，以为那是东方的拉斯维加斯。

I was really looking forward to it because I was thinking the Las Vegas of the East.

但那里很多赌博活动让我觉得挺压抑的，因为有些玩法简单到只是掷骰子。

But a lot of the gambling, I found pretty depressing because some of it was as basic as like, let's roll the dice.

点数高就赢。

If it's a high number, you win.

点数低就输。

And if it's a low number, you lose.

还有这种非常简单的二元投注方式。

And taking those kind of very simplistic binary bets.

而且

And

我觉得很多这种行为正在悄悄渗透进金融体系。

I feel like a lot of that is sort of creeping into the financial system.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean Look.

日常生活。

Daily lives.

人们会赌超级碗的抛硬币结果。

People bet on the coin flip of the Super Bowl.

对。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

既然人们只是在赌硬币正反面，那还办超级碗干嘛？

Why even have the Super Bowl at that point?

如果人们只是在赌硬币正反面，那超级碗就没什么意义了。

If people are they're just betting on a coin flip.

如果人们倾向于赌硬币正反面，超级碗本身就变得无关紧要了。

The Super Bowl is kind of an irrelevancy if people are inclined to bet on the coin flip.

我不确定人们会不会真的去赌硬币正反面，但也没多少人会这么做。

I don't know if, like, people will bet on a coin flip, but it's not like that much.

基本上

Basically

是一回事。

the same thing.

这就像是赌红或黑，人们确实在线上这么赌，这真的很令人沮丧。

It's like betting on red or black, which people do which people do online, which is really depressing.

实际上，我在赌博领域见过的最令人沮丧的事情是，我曾经在冰岛，我觉得他们那里有这种

Actually, the most depressing thing I've ever seen on the gambling front was I was in Iceland, and I think they have this

我并不觉得冰岛像是赌博的中心，但是

I do not think of Iceland as, like, a hub of gambling, but

说下去。

go on.

当时我在酒店房间里想找点电视节目看，发现他们有一个直播或视频，展示一家虚拟赌场，一位漂亮的女荷官在发牌，人们可以通过电话下注。

Like, I was looking for stuff to watch on TV in my hotel room, and they had a stream or they had a video of this video casino where they had an attractive woman dealer dealing cards and then people could phone in their bets.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

重现这种类似赌场的场景。

Recreate kind of this casino ish thing.

但看起来我们正朝着这个方向发展。

But it seems like that's where we're going.

另外一点是，正如我提到的，无论是技术套利还是监管套利，任何类型的投注都可以用任何类型的工具来实现。

Then the other thing too is that, as I mentioned, whether it's technological arbitrage or regulatory arbitrage, every type of bet can be turned into done with any type of instrument.

你可以用期货来复制股票和期权。

You can replicate stock and options with futures.

你可以通过预测市场来进行体育博彩。

You can do sports betting in the form of prediction markets.

你可以把预测市场拿过来，我们已经看到过这种情况了。

You can then take prediction markets, and we've already seen this.

你可以把预测市场打包成ETF。

You can take prediction markets and bundle them into ETFs.

你可以购买一个由一系列支持民主党参议员的市场组成的ETF。

You could buy an ETF that is a series of long Democrat in the Senate markets, etcetera.

所以，所有东西都可以被包装在各种其他形式之中。

And so everything could be wrapped in every other sort of wrapper.

一旦你找到了合适的包装方式，所有东西似乎都能在当前的监管框架下被允许。

And everything is just sort of seemingly once you find the right wrapper kind of allowed within their current sort of regulatory framework.

老实说，即使不被允许，你也可以通过加密货币在海外操作。

And honestly, even if it's not allowed, you do it offshore with crypto, etcetera.

因此，几乎没有办法阻止这种进展。

So there's almost no way to sort of stop this progression.

但我一直在想的是，我们过去常听说市场被描述为，资本主义有其积极的一面。

But the other thing I've been thinking of is, you know, we used to hear markets described as, you know, there there were upsides to capitalism.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你本应有效配置资金

Like, you're supposed to be efficiently allocating money

我仍然认为有一些相当好的积极面。

to I still think there's some pretty good upsides.

当然。

Of course.