罗里·约翰斯顿谈石油价格如何可能飙升至每桶200美元以上

经营企业意味着要应对大量过于复杂的软件，而大多数客户关系管理系统都遵循相同的模式。

Running a business means dealing with a lot of overly complicated software, and most CRMs tend to follow the same pattern.

它们塞满了你根本用不上的功能，界面笨拙，团队往往花费太多时间去寻找基本信息。

They're packed with endless features you'll never use, interfaces that feel clunky, and teams end up spending way too much time just trying to find basic information.

今天的赞助商Pipedrive是一款专为中小型企业设计的简单客户关系管理工具。

Today's sponsor, Pipedrive, is a simple CRM tool designed for small and medium businesses.

Pipedrive将整个销售流程整合到一个仪表板中，为你提供清晰完整的销售流程和客户信息视图，帮助团队掌控全局、快速成交。

Pipedrive brings you entire sales processes into one dashboard, giving you a crystal clear, complete view of sales processes and customer information designed to help teams stay in control and close more deals fast.

所有功能都围绕可视化销售漏斗展开，你可以看到每一个潜在客户、它所处的阶段，以及下一步需要做什么。

It all centers around the visual sales pipeline where you can see every deal, what stage it's in, and what needs to happen next.

由于所有内容都集中在一个平台上，Pipedrive旨在凝聚团队、跟踪销售任务，并牢牢掌握潜在客户动态。

Since everything is in one platform, Pipedrive is designed to unite your team, keep track of sales tasks, and stay on top of your leads.

换用一款由销售专家为销售团队打造的客户关系管理系统，加入已使用Pipedrive的十多万家公司行列。

Switch to a CRM built by salespeople, for salespeople, and join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipedrive.

现在注册，你将获得三十天的免费试用。

Right now, you'll get a thirty day free trial.

无需信用卡或任何付款。

No credit card or payment needed.

只需前往 pipedrive.com/simplecrm 开始使用。

Just head to pipedrive.com/simplecrm to get started.

那就是 pipedrive.com/simplecrm。

That's pipedrive.com/simplecrm.

唐纳德·特朗普正在重写华盛顿的规则手册，并重塑全球经济。

Donald Trump is rewriting the Washington rule book and reshaping the global economy.

如果你试图理清新闻背后的线索，彭博社的《Trumanomics》播客将为你提供帮助。

If you're trying to connect the dots behind the headlines, Bloomberg's Trumanomics podcast is here to help.

我是彭博社的政府与经济主管斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯。

I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of government and economics at Bloomberg.

每周，我都会为你带来一场与华盛顿、华尔街及更广泛领域记者和专家的深入对话。

Every week, I'll bring you a smart, focused conversation with reporters and experts from Washington, Wall Street, and beyond.

每周三收听新一期节目，并在你常用的平台关注《Trumponomics》。

Listen to new episodes every Wednesday and follow Trumponomics wherever you listen.

那些没有按照约翰·德奥的要求做事的人，通常都会消失。

People who didn't do what John of God wanted them to do, they usually disappeared.

约翰·德奥曾是巴西最著名的灵性疗愈师。

John of God was once Brazil's most famous spiritual healer.

但在本系列有限播客中，我们将揭开他建立在信仰与恐惧之上的全球帝国背后的黑暗真相。

But in this limited series podcast, we uncover the darker truth behind his global empire of faith and fear.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《约翰·德奥》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

你好，欢迎收听《Odd Lots》播客的另一期节目。

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

我是乔·魏森塔尔。

I'm Joe Weisenthal.

我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。

And I'm Tracy Allaway.

特蕾西，你看到油价已经技术性进入熊市了吗？

Tracy, did you see that oil is already technically in a bear market?

我看到了。

I did.

我看到了。

I did.

所以我认为熊市的定义就是下跌。

So I think the definition of a bear market is down.

是10%还是20%？

Is it 10 or 20%?

我记不清了。

I can't

现在想不起来了。

remember now.

下跌10%算是修正。

10% is a correction.

没错。

That's right.

好的。

Okay.

所以从高点算起，跌幅已达20%，我记得布伦特原油当时一度涨到每桶120美元左右。

So it's down 20% from the high of I think Brent was at something like a 120 per barrel.

接近121.19美元。

Almost a $121.19 50.

所以，是的，价格正在下降。

So, yeah, it's coming down.

然而，相比一周前，它仍然上涨了不少。

However, it's still up quite a bit from where it was, like, a week ago.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

我的意思是，它相比周五仍然上涨了8%。

I mean, it's still up 8% from Friday.

我的意思是，现在的石油市场就是这么疯狂。

I mean, that's how crazy the oil market is right now there.

我觉得，我们现在正处在一个数字似乎失去意义的时刻。

We're at that moment in time where numbers kind of lose meaning, I feel.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yes.

而且显然，我们都清楚这个背景，出现了异常剧烈的上涨。

And obviously, look, we all know the context, just extraordinary surge.

我认为让我感到惊讶——或者说并不意外，但值得注意的是——我们稍后会和嘉宾深入探讨这一点：伊朗战争的风险早已为人所知。

I think one of the things that's surprising to me or not maybe not surprising, but notable to me, and we'll get into this with our guest, of course, in a minute, is that Iran war risk was well known.

在第一次袭击之前，油价就已经在缓慢攀升了。

The price of oil had already been creeping higher a bit even prior to the first attack.

所以这本来就是一个担忧，但它也凸显了我不知道该用什么术语来形容——这种风险在市场定价中完全没有被充分反映的程度。

So this was already a concern, but it sort of goes to show how I don't know exactly what the term is, how unexpected or the degree to which basically this was not priced in.

交易员们早已非常清楚伊朗遭到袭击的可能性极高，但就在短短十天内，我们却目睹了油价如此惊人的飙升。

The fact that traders were already very keen and aware that there was a very high possibility of a strike in Iran, and yet we've just seen this absolutely massive surge in just the span of, you know, ten days, really.

现在发生的另一件事是，由于年初时我们的石油供应相当充足，这反而成了一个弱点，比如当时有大量的石油储存在浮动储油设施中。

Well, the other thing that's happening now is because we had pretty good oil supplies out there at the beginning of the year, that's kind of become, I guess, a vulnerability because you had a lot of oil in floating storage, for instance.

但现在这些浮动储油设施已经满了，而油船又无法通过霍尔木兹海峡，导致油品无处可去。

But that means now the floating storage is filled, and it can't go anywhere because you can't get through the Strait Of Hormuz.

因此，所有新的产量比以往更快地被关停。

And therefore, all the new production is getting shut in a lot faster than it would be otherwise.

所以，我们之前拥有的某些缓冲机制，似乎正在变成某种脆弱性。

So it feels like some of the buffers that we had are kind of turning into, I guess, vulnerabilities.

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Totally right.

很多商品领域的人士都有这样一个特点，而我非常喜欢他们。

Now the thing with a lot of commodity people is that and I love them.

但问题是，不。

So this is but the thing no.

但很多人就像是永久悲观者，有点偏执，总是关注风险，以及各种可能变糟的情况，比如如果没有自由流动的各类商品，我们可能会倒退回石器时代。

But a lot of them are, like, sort of, I don't know, like, permadoomers, like, sort of a little bit crankish, a little bit more always thinking about risks and so forth and ways that things could go bad and how we could go back to the stone age if we don't have the free flowing commodities of all sorts.

而且，再次强调，我非常喜欢他们所有人，但有人提到——我忘了是谁在周末发的推文，但他们说，即使是最低调的那位，我想可能是斯廷森·迪恩。

And, again, I love them all, but someone else pointed I forget who tweeted it over the weekend, but they said, like, even the least alarmist I think it was might have been Stinson Dean, actually.

他说，即使是商品领域最不悲观的人，现在也感到非常担忧。

He said even the least alarmist people in the commodity space are very alarmed right now.

所以，是的，人们正在谈论这可能是有史以来最严重的石油冲击之一。

And so, yeah, people are talking about this being one of the worst oil shocks ever.

我的意思是，情况非常极端。

I mean, it's very extreme.

乔，如果你的行业赖以生存的是史前生物的液化残骸，而你知道这些资源终有一天会耗尽，你也会成为一个悲观主义者。

Joe, if you industry whose lifeblood was the liquefied remains of prehistoric organisms and there was a finite amount that you knew one day was gonna run out, you'd be a doomer too.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们即将与一位并非悲观主义者的人交谈，他总体上非常友善，但确实非常担忧，认为石油价格有可能根据战争的进展，合理地涨至每桶200美元。

Well, we're gonna be speaking with someone who is not a doomer, overall very pleasant fellow, but someone who is quite alarmed, who thinks that oil could actually go to $200 a barrel quite plausibly depending on how the war unfolds.

我非常期待。

I'm very excited.

我们有一段时间没采访过他了，但他可是《Odd Lots》的常客。

We haven't talked to him in a while, but an Odd Lots favorite here.

我们将要采访的是商品背景公司的创始人罗里·约翰斯顿，一位彻头彻尾的石油迷。

We're gonna be speaking with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, all around oil nerd.

他甚至在多伦多大学任教。

He even teaches at the University of Toronto.

所以，罗里，非常感谢你再次做客《Odd Lots》。

So, Rory, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

谢谢你们再次邀请我，各位。

Thanks for having me back, guys.

让我们先谈谈这个观点：在空袭发生之前，伊朗战争风险早已在交易员的密切关注之中。

Let's start with this idea that Iran war risk was already very much on the radar of traders long before the strikes.

油价一直在缓慢攀升，而现在我们看到了大幅飙升。

The price had been creeping up, and now we've seen this huge surge.

所以，我们当时大约是——我正在看布伦特原油图表。

So we were at about I'm looking at the Brent chart.

在袭击发生前的那个周末，油价刚刚超过每桶72美元，而现在大约在100美元左右。

We were just over $72 a barrel the weekend before the attack, currently right around 100.

在过去的这一周多时间里，究竟发生了什么，远远超出了交易员们的预期？

What has happened in the last, you know, just over a week that's been so far beyond what traders might have been anticipating?

是的。

Yeah.

所以你很善意地把我描述为一个理性的人。

So I think you very kindly described me as a reasonable person.

我同意，我认为大宗商品领域很多人有一种长期看涨的倾向。

I I agree that I think a lot of people in the commodity space have a kind of a permabullish bias.

我认为，正如特蕾西提到的那些原因，我刚进入这个行业时也是这样。

And I think for many of the reasons Tracy mentioned, when I first got into the industry, was very much like that.

天哪。

Oh, oh my goodness.

你知道，2014年伊斯兰国占领了伊拉克的摩苏尔。

You know, ISIS took Mosul in in Iraq in 2014.

我们当时的价格简直涨到了疯狂的水平。

We're going to, you know, crazy levels.

但我认为，我们在过去五年中反复发现并得到证实的是，石油市场的灵活性和韧性有多么强。

But I think what we've discovered and what's been reinforced repeatedly over the past half decade is just how flexible and resilient the oil market is.

我们经历了从新冠疫情到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，再到胡塞武装在红海的活动，以及去年伊朗和以色列全面冲突等各种事件。

We've dealt with everything from COVID to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to Houthis in the Red Sea to a full blown attacks with Iran and Israel last year.

它经历了太多波折。

It's gone through a lot.

但尽管如此，市场却表现出令人惊讶的韧性。

And despite that, the market has been shockingly shockingly resilient.

这些曾经都是我们用来压垮市场的因素。

These were all the things that we used to kind of stress the market with.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但我认为区别在于，我认为这在某种程度上，市场已经习惯了错误的教训。

But I think the difference is and I think this is kind of almost, in some ways, the market's gotten used to the wrong lesson here.

你知道，我们并没有成为悲观主义者，反而变得过于乐观，因为市场总能解决所有这些问题。

You know, rather than being doomers, we've gotten overly sanguine because the market is able to fix all of these problems.

我认为市场在这方面表现得惊人地出色，但这个问题却不同寻常。

And I think the market is shockingly, shockingly good at this, but this is one of those problems.

霍尔木兹海峡的关闭是市场无法真正解决的问题。

The closure of the Strait Of Hormuz is something that can't really be fixed by markets.

这个问题规模太大，太具物理性了。

It's so large and so physical.

你之前提到过，为什么这种情况会让人感到意外。

And you were kinda mentioned, like, why this kind of confounded expectations.

你提到过，在过去一个月左右，我们已经将大约每桶10美元的风险溢价计入价格，主要来自投机者对这一事件的预期。

You had mentioned so, you know, over the prior month or so, we had built in upwards of $10 a barrel largely of Iran risk, mostly from speculative participants kind of anticipating this.

而且，这并不是什么秘密。

And again, it wasn't a it wasn't a secret.

我们在美国中东地区的军事人员和装备部署规模，自2003年入侵伊拉克以来达到了最大。

We had the largest buildup of US military personnel and equipment in The Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

但像我这样的人，从未预料到这种情况会发生。

But them, like myself, I never expected this to happen.

我从未想过在我有生之年会看到这样的冲击。

I never expected to see this particular shock in my lifetime.

这正是行业里给新分析师提出的那种情景假设：如果这种情况发生，整个系统会如何崩溃？

This was the kind of, this is the scenario that you give new analysts in the industry as kind of a thought experiment of, okay, if this happened, how would everything break?

因为我认为这其实是一个非常有启发性和教育意义的思想实验。

Because I think it's actually a very illustrative and educational thought experiment.

亲身体验这种实时的极速推演，真是令人恐惧。

It's terrifying to be kind of speedrunning it in real time.

说到这一点，当像过去一周这样的事件发生时，作为一名石油分析师，有多少工作是真正思考供应链的调整和石油可能被重新分流，而不是仅仅关注地缘政治，变成一个纸上谈兵的军事专家，思考：这场冲突到底什么时候才会结束？

So on this note, when something like the events of the past week happen, how much of an oil analyst job is actually thinking about supply chain adaptations and where oil could get rerouted versus just thinking geopolitics and becoming an armchair military expert and thinking, like, well, this is when the conflict might actually end?

我认为更多是关于供应链的问题。

I think it's more on the supply chain.

当我们分析师查看图表和数据时，我们真正想做的其实是两方面：诚实地理解并观察石油价格在任何一天的水平，但更重要的是，通过这些信号洞察底层市场正在发生什么。

I think when we as our analysts, like, look at charts and data, what we're really trying to do is both, I mean, honestly, understand, you know, and see where the price of oil is at any given day, but more kind of looking at what those signals tell us about what's happening in the underlying market.

而当我们面临像现在这样巨大的市场错配时，所有这些信号都不再像往常那样发挥作用。

And when you have such a massive dislocation like we're facing right now, none of those signals act like they usually do.

它们正以疯狂的方式朝各个方向飞散，因为这次损失实在太过巨大。

They're all flying in all different directions in crazy fashion because this is such a massive, massive loss.

再强调一下，为了让不了解市场的人明白我们讨论的是什么，有人可能会说，哦，20%的市场份额，每天有2000万桶原油通过霍尔木兹海峡。

And just again, just to put in perspective for people what we're talking about, because someone that's not aware of the market say, oh, well, 20% of the market, 20,000,000 barrels a day that flow through Hormuz.

是的。

Yeah.

我们还能应付得了那个情况。

That's we could deal with that.

对吧？

Right?

但实际上，2000万桶的日产量损失，相当于2020年3月和4月新冠疫情期间需求下降的峰值。

But that's actually so 20,000,000 barrels is the peak of COVID demand loss in March and April 2020.

那时我们都居家隔离，机场空无一人，飞机全部停飞。

That was when we were all locked inside, when airports were empty and planes were grounded.

当时那种需求崩溃的程度，就是20%所代表的规模。

That was the type of demand destruction that 20% looked like.

如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，我认为这是关键所在，无论是因为战争还是其他原因，我们当然可以讨论各种可能性，比如如何出现缺口和泄漏。

And now if the Strait remains closed, and I think this is the critical part here, whether it's the war or whatever, and we could talk about all the ways that this could, you know, the nuances and the way you get, you know, slippage and leakage.

但如果海峡保持现状，我们将不得不通过价格信号而非疫情来强制调整市场以适应这一需求水平。

But if the Strait remains as it is today, we will need to forcibly kind of adjust the market to that level of demand, but without a pandemic, just via price signals.

这就是为什么油价至少会涨到200美元以上，而且持续时间越长，价格就越高。

That's why 200 plus is at least, I mean, longer this goes on, the higher we go.

这不仅仅是石油的问题。

And it's not just oil.

我们已经看到亚洲的航空燃油价格一度突破每桶200美元，因为产品市场才是真正会推动需求萎缩的因素。

We had already seen jet fuel in Asia hit over $200 a barrel briefly, because the product markets are the things that

真正驱动需求萎缩的不是原油本身，而是成品油市场。

are actually gonna drive that demand destruction, not crude itself.

是的，再详细解释一下产品市场的情况。

Yeah, explain that a little bit further, the product markets.

你提到这一点时，具体是指什么？

Talk to us a little bit when you say that, what do you mean by that?

是的

Yeah.

所以，你和我作为全球消费者，通常并不会直接消费原油。

So you and I, as global consumers, don't actually typically consume crude oil.

只有特蕾西会。

Only Tracy does.

只有特蕾西会。

Only Tracy does.

特蕾西确实会，没错。

Tracy Tracy does, exactly.

虽然没成功，但没错。

Unsuccessfully, but yeah.

我认为我们所有人都很难成功消费这种极其有毒的液体。

I think all of us would be pretty unsuccessful kind of consuming very, very toxic liquid.

但我想，我们实际消费的是航空燃油、柴油和汽油。

But I think, you know, what we actually consume, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline.

是的。

Yeah.

这些产品都是在炼油厂中通过蒸馏和精炼产生的。

These are things that are created, distilled, and refined in an oil refinery.

因此，炼油厂消耗的是原油。

So oil refineries consume crude.

所以当我们谈论产品市场的突发状况时，实际上是在说原油有供需曲线，就像你在经济学入门课上看到的那样。

So what we talk about when we talk about, you know, the blowout in the product market is we're talking about so crude oil has a supply and demand curve, as you'd, you know, see in Econ 101.

而每一种具体产品——汽油、航油、柴油、石脑油、化工原料、船用燃料等等——都有各自独立的供需曲线，这使得整个市场迅速变得极其复杂。

And then each individual product, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, naphtha, petrochemical feed, everything else, you know, shipping fuel, they all have their own specific supply and demand curves, which this market becomes like fractally complicated very quickly.

但为了简化，我们实际上讨论的是：炼油厂以大约100美元一桶的价格购入原油（目前布伦特原油价格正徘徊在100美元上方），然后将一桶原油精炼成多种不同产品。

But to simplify, really what we're talking about is a refinery taking up, let's say a barrel of oil for a $100, which is roughly what we're trading right now on Brent, we're kind of jumping on other side of $100 They take a barrel of oil for $100 and they refine it into a bunch of different products.

这些产品所获得的溢价，通常被称为裂解价差，也就是原油价格与炼油厂产出的精炼产品价格之间的差额。

The premiums they get for those products are what we typically call the crack spread or the difference between crude and a refined product that is yielded from a refinery.

炼油利润本质上是所有这些裂解价差的加权平均值，再加上其他成本。而眼下正在发生的情况，以及为什么精炼产品市场会先于原油市场出现波动，是因为对炼油厂来说，最糟糕的情况就是原油原料断供。

And the refinery margin is essentially the weighted average blend of all those crack spreads plus other costs But and everything what's happening right now, and the reason that we're actually seeing the refined product market jump ahead of the consequences in the crude oil market, is that the worst thing for a refinery is literally running out of crude feedstock.

实际上，我要特别感谢Sparta Commodities的June Go，她让我更深入地了解了这一点。我原本以为，哇，产品市场已经疯狂了，炼油商肯定在拼命追赶，全力以赴地运行，以捕捉这些异常高的利润。

And actually full credit to June Go of Sparta Commodities for educating me more on this, because I would have thought, wow, product markets are going insane, refiners must be chasing as hard as they can, running as fast as they can to capture those exceptionally high margins.

但问题在于，对他们来说，关闭设施是最糟糕的情况。

But the issue is that for them shutting down a facility is the worst case scenario.

这本质上是一个巨大的流动化学装置，一旦关闭，就很难重新启动，需要耗费大量时间、金钱和停机时间，而在这期间你根本无法获得任何利润。

This is basically a giant flowing chemistry set, that if you turn it off, it's really, really hard to kind of turn back on properly, and it takes a lot of time and money and downtime, and then you're not capturing any of those margins.

因此，炼油商正在采取行动——这些是亚洲的炼油厂，它们正面临高达每天2000万桶的原料缺口。

So what the refiners are doing, these are the refineries in Asia that basically have a massive 20,000,000 barrel a day gap coming towards them in the market in terms of feedstock.

它们正在提前减少生产活动，降低运行速率，以便延长自身的生存时间，尽可能长时间地维持运营。

They're preemptively reducing activity, reducing the rate of runs so they can extend their runway basically for how long they can remain in the market at all.

这意味着，两周前，我们仍然有原油从墨西哥湾流出。

So this means that, you know, with crude oil, two weeks ago we still had crude flowing out of The Gulf.

这些货物运送到目的地需要一到两个月的时间。

It takes a month or two for those cargoes to get to where they're going.

只有那时，我们才会真正感受到后果——供应短缺和库存耗尽。

It's only then that we'll really start to feel the consequence and the supply loss and the inventory drain down.

但亚洲的炼油商尤其在提前调整运行速率，我们立即在亚洲成品市场看到了这些影响。

But with the refiners in Asia in particular preemptively and kind of, you know, adjusting down their run rates, we're seeing the impacts in Asian product markets immediately.

经营企业意味着要应对大量过于复杂的软件，而大多数客户关系管理系统都遵循相同的模式。

Running a business means dealing with a lot of overly complicated software, and most CRMs tend to follow the same pattern.

它们塞满了你根本用不上的功能，界面笨拙，团队往往花费太多时间去寻找基本信息。

They're packed with endless features you'll never use, interfaces that feel clunky, and teams end up spending way too much time just trying to find basic information.

今天的赞助商Pipedrive是一款专为中小型企业设计的简单客户关系管理工具。

Today's sponsor, Pipedrive, is a simple CRM tool designed for small and medium businesses.

Pipedrive将整个销售流程整合到一个仪表盘中，为您提供清晰完整的销售流程和客户信息视图，帮助团队掌控局面并更快地促成交易。

Pipedrive brings you entire sales processes into one dashboard giving you a crystal clear complete view of sales processes and customer information designed to help teams stay in control and close more deals faster.

所有内容都围绕可视化销售展开，您可以查看每一笔交易的进度以及下一步需要做什么。

It all centers around the visual sales where you can see every deal, what stage it's in, and what needs to happen next.

由于所有内容都集中在一个平台上，Pipedrive旨在团结您的团队，跟踪销售任务，并牢牢掌握潜在客户。

Since everything is in one platform, Pipedrive is designed to unite your team, keep track of sales tasks, and stay on top of your leads.

换用一款由销售专家为销售团队打造的客户关系管理系统，加入已使用Pipedrive的十多万家公司行列。

Switch to a CRM built by salespeople, for salespeople, and join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipedrive.

现在，您将获得三十天的免费试用。

Right now, you'll get a thirty day free trial.

无需提供信用卡或任何付款信息。

No credit card or payment needed.

只需前往 pipedrive.com/simplecrm 开始使用。

Just head to pipedrive.com/simplecrm to get started.

那就是 pipedrive.com/simplecrm。

That's pipedrive.com/simplecrm.

新闻在周末也不会停止。

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

情况不断变化，而如今彭博社是您掌握一切动态的最佳去处。

Context changes constantly, and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

每周六和周日，请收听全新的《彭博财经周末》。

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

我是克里斯蒂娜·拉菲尼。

I'm Christina Raffini.

我们将为您带来最新头条、深度分析和重磅访谈。

We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews.

所有在您休息日触动人心的故事。

All the stories that hit home on your days off.

我是丽莎·马泰奥。

And I'm Lisa Mateo.

请观看并收听《彭博财经周末》，了解关于商业、生活方式、人物与文化的深刻而富有启发性的对话。

Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.

每周六早上，我们会回顾过去一周的事件，分析市场和世界发生了什么。

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

而到了周日，我们会采访记者、专栏作家和关键政治人物，为您迎接新的一周做好准备。

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead.

一醒来就加入我们，无论你的周末计划带您去何方，都让我们一路相伴。

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

在彭博电视上观看我们。

Watch us on Bloomberg Television.

在彭博广播上收听。

Listen on Bloomberg Radio.

通过彭博商业应用实时观看节目，或收听播客。

Stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app or listen to the podcast.

这就是《彭博周末》，每周六和周日东部时间早上7点开始。

That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7AM eastern.

让彭博电视、广播以及您收听播客的任何平台，都成为您周末生活的一部分。

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

几十年来，人们远赴世界各地寻求约翰·德·上帝的治愈，因为他们渴望得到医生无法提供的疗法。

For decades, people traveled across the world to see John of God, desperate for cures no doctor could offer.

当他们抵达时，目睹了无法解释的奇事。

And when they arrived, they saw things they couldn't explain.

这是真实的。

This is real.

这家伙真的在做手术，这简直是个奇迹。

This guy's actually doing surgery, and it's a miracle.

直到那一刻之前，我从不相信奇迹是真实的。

I never believed that miracles were real until that point.

但在那些崇拜的人群背后，隐藏着更加黑暗的东西。

But behind those adoring crowds was something much darker.

我从未去报警的原因之一，是因为我看到他每次出现时，周围至少有五六个持枪的男人。

One of the reasons why I never went to the police is because I saw at least five or six men with guns everywhere he went.

这一点很明显。

That was clear

对我来说，就是你的嘴，别张嘴，什么都别说。

to me, like, your mouth, don't open your mouth, don't say anything.

我是主持人，玛蒂娜·卡斯特罗。

I'm your host, Martina Castro.

在播客《两面人：圣约翰》中，我们将回顾一位声称能施行奇迹、并让来自世界各地的人们深信不疑的人。

And in the podcast, Two Faced, John of God, we'll look back on a man who claimed he could perform miracles and got people from all around the world to believe him.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《两面人：圣约翰》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is Two Faced, John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

所以，罗里，我想问你的另一件事是：我们拥有战略储备，本应帮助我们应对这类短期供应冲击，而释放这些储备本应不仅降低汽油等商品的价格，还能帮助炼油厂维持运营，避免它们提前关闭产能。

So the other thing I wanted to ask you about, Rory, is so we have strategic stockpiles that are supposed to help us get through these types of near term supply shocks and, you know, the release of which is supposed to not only push down the price of stuff like gasoline, but also maybe help the refiners keep going so that they don't have to start preemptively shutting down capacity.

与此同时，我们现在看到七国集团国家似乎对从战略储备中释放石油非常犹豫。

At the same time, we now have g seven countries that seem to be very reluctant to release from the stockpiles.

我应该提一下，我们录制这段内容时是3月9日，当时各种头条新闻满天飞，所以等到这期节目播出时会发生什么，谁也说不准。

And I should just mention that we're recording this on March 9, you know, there are all these headlines flying around, so who knows what will happen by the time this episode gets out.

与此同时，美国国内也出现了大量关于释放战略石油储备的讨论。

And then at the same time, we also have The US where there's a lot of chatter about releasing from the SPR.

跟我们谈谈现在动用这些战略储备的利与弊。

Talk to us about the pros and cons of actually dipping into those strategic stockpiles right now.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为重要的是要指出，这是所有供应商中的巨头。

So I think it's important to note that, like, this is the mother of all suppliers.

这是每个石油分析师在刚入门时都会害怕的噩梦。

This is the boogeyman for every oil analyst when they're kind of learning the ropes.

这正是战略石油储备（SPR）被创建出来所要应对的典型情景。

This is the purpose built reason, the scenario precisely that the SPR was kind of created to mitigate the risk of.

在我看来，他们至今尚未动用战略储备简直疯狂，这反映出特朗普政府尤其纠结于批评拜登政府在2022年释放战略储备以应对俄罗斯供应冲击的做法。

To me, it's insane that they haven't yet tapped the reserve already, and I think speaks to the fact that particularly Trump administration has tied itself in knots criticizing the Biden administration for releasing SPR stocks in 2022 to offset the Russian supply shock.

不过就这一点简单说一下，我当时非常支持那次释放行动。

Now, just on that very briefly, I was a big supporter of that release.

我认为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰构成明确的国家安全和全球经济威胁，我们当时担心会失去大量来自俄罗斯的石油。

I thought that was a clear national security threat and global economic threat that Russia posed when invade Ukraine, and we we thought we're gonna lose so much oil from Russia.

但公平地说，那次行动执行得并不完美，不过我认为它的初衷是正确的。

But it wasn't executed perfectly in fairness, but still, I think that was a good purpose of it.

而现在，这也是它的一个非常好的用途。

And now this is also a very good purpose of it.

我们本可以在其间补充更多储备，而且应该这么做。

We could have refilled more in the interim, and we should have.

国会需要为战略石油储备和能源部拨付更多资金。

Congress needs to allocate more money to the SPR, to the Department of Energy.

拜登时代出售战略石油储备所获得的大部分资金实际上已返还给国会，因此你实际上需要把这些钱再拿回来。

Most of the money that was earned from the Biden era sale of the SPR has essentially been remitted to Congress, so you actually need to get that money back again.

但我想我们今天早上看到的是，国际能源署和七国集团国家正在讨论协调释放3亿至4亿桶石油，这是《金融时报》报道的内容，我看到了。

But I think what we've seen so this morning, the the IEA and g seven countries were talking about this coordinated release of 300 to 400,000,000 barrels is what the Financial Times, reported as I saw.

但他们出来表示了拒绝。

But, yeah, they come out and said no.

现在，有几种原因可以解释他们为何会拒绝。

Now there's a couple of reasons that you could explain why they could say no.

第一，他们可能希望并担心情况会变得更糟，因此选择将储备更紧密地保留着。

One, they could be hoping and fearing that things could get even worse, so holding it, you know, closer to the chest.

关于这一点，我认为一个主要问题是，全球战略石油储备的集体释放速率并不是两千万桶。

On that, I would say one of the big problems is that the collective release rate of the SPRs around the world is not 20,000,000 barrels.

因此，危机已经非常、非常严重了，即使战略石油储备是无限的，你也无法完全填补这一缺口，而它实际上并不是无限的。

So the crisis is already really, really bad, and you can't actually fill the gap entirely with SPRs even if it was unlimited, which it isn't.

仅仅是释放速率本身就跟不上需求。

Just the flow rate itself can't keep up.

所以，与其晚点行动，你反而更需要尽早开始逐步释放。

So if anything, you kinda need to almost start easing earlier rather than later.

另一方面，我认为这里有个问题，就是我们一再听到，特朗普认为这将是一次短暂的冲击。

On the other hand, I think there's this question of, like, maybe, you know, repeatedly we hear that, like, Trump thinks it's going to be a short lived shock.

昨晚我开车进入渥太华时，他们正在讨论，说这将是一次短暂而剧烈的冲击，然后我们会推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国，所有人状况都会好转。

Last night when I was driving into Ottawa, you know, they were talking about, you know, this is gonna be short, sharp, and then we're gonna get rid of the Islamic Republic in Iran, and we're all gonna be better off.

但到目前为止，我们所看到的一切都表明，这不会是一次短暂而剧烈的冲击。

But this is not nothing nothing that we see so far indicates it's gonna be short and sharp.

再说一遍，我对事情已经恶化到这种地步感到震惊。

Again, I'm shocked we are this far down the road.

我原以为总统没有意愿面对这种真正的彻底混乱，接下来我们要看他还愿意维持这种意愿多久。

I didn't think the president had the appetite for this kind of true and utter chaos, and then we're gonna see how long he remains to have the appetite for that.

但在我看来，他们本质上是认为这仅仅是一次短暂的地缘政治情绪波动，而实际上，这却是我们见过的最大规模的实物供应中断。

But that's essentially the best read I could have is they think this is short a short lived geopolitical sentiment disruption when this is really just the largest physical supply disruption we've ever seen.

是的。

Yeah.

他们据称还在考虑的另一件事，甚至更加疯狂和可怕：重新实施对原油和精炼产品的出口禁令。

The other thing they're reportedly musing, which is even more insane and terrifying, is renewing the export ban on both crude oil and refined products.

这正是拜登政府在2022年底曾短暂讨论过的事情。

So something that the Biden administration kinda mused about in late twenty twenty two.

我当时在《商品背景》上写过一篇文章，详细阐述了为什么这是个极其糟糕的主意——我理解那种追求自给自足的冲动，尤其是考虑到美国是全球最大的石油生产国。但不仅原油品质存在问题，美国生产的轻质油过多，却仍需进口重质油；此外还存在区域问题：美国墨西哥湾沿岸是柴油的净出口地区，而美国东海岸则依赖从欧洲进口汽油。

And I wrote a piece then on Commodity Context that was all about the reasons that that was a really, really bad idea, that I appreciate the impulse towards autarky, particularly given the fact that The United States is the largest oil producer in the world But not only are crude quality issues at play, you know, The US produces too much light and doesn't and it still needs to import heavy, but also there's regional issues that The US Gulf Coast is a net exporter of diesel, The US East Coast is a net importer of gasoline from Europe.

所以，如果你开始关闭这些贸易边界，各个地区就会逐渐陷入瘫痪和僵化，这显然不是总统特朗普希望看到的局面，但我现在已不再相信他们能真正全面地思考这些问题，因为如果他们真这么做了，就应该考虑到战略石油储备的问题。

So, basically, if you start closing these borders off, all of these individual regions start to basically shut down and kind of ossify in a way that is not at all what I think president Trump would want, but I no longer have much faith that they are fully thought ending this through because if you had, you would have thought about the SPR.

就应该考虑到应急保障。

Would have thought about insurance.

你早就该考虑到这一切了，但他们显然根本没有。

You would thought about all of this already, and they just clearly haven't.

是的。

Yeah.

这对我来说是最引人注目的事情之一。

This is one of the striking things to me.

根据我所读到的所有信息，似乎这件事多少让他们有些措手不及，一些市场反应——我的意思是，当你进入这样一场战争时，很难相信他们没有更早预见到这一点，但我的感觉确实和你一样。

At least from everything I've read, there it sort of seems to have taken them a little bit by surprise, some of the market re I mean, it's almost hard to believe that there wasn't more anticipating of this when you're going into war like this, but it does not seem I certainly get the same impression as you.

顺便说一句，每个人都该打开新加坡航煤价格的图表。

By the way, everyone should pull up that chart of Singapore jet fuel prices.

它看起来几乎像是假的。

It almost looks fake.

你知道，我们在二月时油价还是每桶90美元，最近却突破了2.20美元。

It's just like, you know, we're $90 a barrel at the February broke $2.20 recently.

最近稍微回落了一点。

It's come in a little bit.

所以再跟我们详细说说战争持续时间与恢复常态之间关系的问题？

So talk to us a little bit more about the sort of relationship between the duration of the war and the ability to flip the switch back?

因为总统的沟通方式似乎就是：是的。

Because it does the president's communication does seem to be like, yeah.

我们现在正在付出代价，但这是值得的，之后价格会回落。

We're paying a price right now, but it's gonna be worth it, then prices are going to come down.

随着战争持续得越来越久，所有因素会如何累积，使得回归正常变得更加困难？

How you know, as this goes on longer and longer, to what degree does everything compound and make it more difficult to go back to normal?

我认为这正是我听你关于霍尔木兹海峡航运专家的播客时讨论的主题。

And I think this is a topic that I was listening to actually your podcast on the Strait Of Hormuz flow with the shipping experts exactly on this topic.

我觉得你们在那里说得非常到位：这个问题每天都在恶化，但让我们具体分析一下它如何恶化。

And I think you guys nailed it there that this gets worse every single day it goes on, but let's talk through the ways it gets worse.

是的。

Yeah.

当我们谈论霍尔木兹海峡时，可以简单地把它看作是世界上最大的管道，或者一根巨大的花园水管，每天有两千万桶石油从中流过。

So when we talk about the Strait Of Hormuz, like, you could think of it very simply as, like, the world's largest pipeline or, like, a big giant garden hose, you know, through which 20,000,000 barrels of petroleum flows.

当霍尔木兹海峡最初关闭时，头一两天、三四天，就像花园水管被压扁了。

When the Strait was closed initially, you know, for the first day, two, three days, it's kind of like a kink in the garden hose.

如果冲突那时就结束了——说实话，我原本以为会这样——只要解开水管，一切就能很快恢复正常。

If the conflict had ended then, which is honestly when I expected it to end, you would unkink the garden hose and things would get back to normal pretty quickly.

没什么大碍。

Kinda no harm, no foul.

有些问题，但很快就能弥补回来。

Some issues, but, like, you can make that up pretty quickly.

但现在，这场危机已经持续十天以上了，我们如今面临的是全球石油流动中高达两亿桶的供应缺口。

But now, you know, ten plus days into this, we now have the equivalent of a 200,000,000 barrel air gap in the global flow of petroleum, first of all.

更不用说，除了水管被压扁之外，由于这些国家无法再从该地区出口，压力也在不断累积。

Not to mention that in addition to this kind of kink in the garden hose, that pressure has built up because these countries can't export out of this region anymore.

特别是伊拉克和科威特，它们缺乏足够的国内储存能力，因为长期以来它们一直依赖出口，如今被迫停产。

Countries like Iraq and Kuwait in particular, both of which lack sufficient domestic storage capacity because they're they just export this stuff all the time and for for decades and decades, they have been forced to shut in production.

截至昨天，伊拉克已关闭了其南部布尔什维油田每天超过300万桶的产量。

Now Iraq, as of yesterday, shut in over 3,000,000 barrels a day of production from its Southern Bolshevi fields.

仅伊拉克这一个国家目前的减产规模，就已经相当于2022年4月市场担忧俄罗斯供应中断时的水平，当时油价一度飙升至每桶120美元以上，这只是为了让你有个概念。

That is alone, just Iraq alone so far, that is the same size as the feared loss of Russian supply in April 2022 that sent the market, you know, ripping higher above a 120 Brent, just for perspective.

但在俄罗斯的情况中，我们最终并没有失去那部分供应。

And and we didn't end end up losing that supply in the Russia case.

我们只短暂失去了一点，之后就恢复了。

We only lost one briefly, and it came back.

但在伊拉克，我们已经失去了。

But in Iraq, we've already lost.

科威特，我们也已经失去了。

Kuwait, we've already lost it.

阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯拥有更多的储存能力，也更有选择余地。

In The Emirates and Saudi Arabia, they have more storage capacity and a bit more optionality.

沙特阿拉伯有一条通往红海西海岸的管道，可以分流一部分原油。

They can get you know, there's a pipeline to the West Coast in the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia that can divert some of the flow.

阿联酋同样可以通过富查伊拉港分流部分原油。

Similarly with The United Arab Emirates, you can divert some flow out the Port Of Fujairah.

通往沙特阿拉伯西海岸的管道可能会遭到轰炸。

The pipeline to the West Coast Of Saudi Arabia can get bombed.

如果我们陷入一场生存之战，这种情况会持续不断。

If we get to an existential battle, you know, this keeps grinding.

阿布扎比的富查伊拉港也是如此，我认为。

Same with the Ports Of Fujairah, I think.

但这些系统都可能被破坏。

But again, these systems can all be broken.

所以你已经失去了这一点。

So you've lost that.

因此，至少从几周来看，甚至可能长达一个月，供应已经结构性地丧失了，即使事情明天就恢复，流量重新开始。

So you've lost supply structurally, at least from weeks, potentially a month, even if the thing resumed, even if flow resumed tomorrow.

而在炼油端——这是出口方的供应端。

And then on the refine- that's on the exporter, the supply side.

在需求端和亚洲的进口国，正如我所说，你已经开始了炼油量的下降。

On the demand side and the importers in Asia, like I said, you've already begun to lose refining runs.

因为航油非常特殊，我认为这是有道理的，所以通常不会储存太多。

Because the jet fuel is very particular, I think rightfully so, so you don't store as much of it typically.

所以我认为，燃料价格尤其是航油价格的大幅飙升，部分原因是供应突然中断，库存储备极少，而亚洲各地的航空公司突然都面临需求。

So I think part of that giant spike in fuel prices and jet fuel in particular was this sudden kind of loss of supply, not a lot of inventory cover, and all of sudden you had all of these airlines all across Asia.

这就像，天啊，我并没有对这种情况进行对冲。

It's like, wow, I'm not hedged for this.

我现在必须弄到每一桶油。

I need to get every barrel I can right now.

所以我认为，即使现在就解决了——虽然看起来并不会——但即使解决了，我们现在系统中也出现了巨大的缺口，需要时间来消化，所有这些不同的供应链至少需要两到三个月才能恢复到接近正常的状态。

So I think even if this resolved right now, which it doesn't look like it's going to, but even if it did, now we have a big air gap in the system that's going to need to work itself out, and all of these different supply chains will probably end up taking two, three months minimum to get back to something resembling normal.

尽管白宫这么说，但目前看来，霍尔木兹海峡的油流似乎并不会很快恢复。

And it doesn't look like we're we're about to kind of resume flow through the state of Hormuz right now despite what the White House says.

我可能有个看似愚蠢的问题，但在油价上涨的情况下，需求破坏真的存在吗？

I have what is perhaps a silly question, but does demand destruction actually exist when it comes to higher oil prices?

我的意思是，我知道航空公司最终会因高油价而破产，但感觉这种情况下，只要身体或财务上还能支撑，人们还是会尽可能继续使用？

I I mean, you know, seriously, I know that airlines will go bankrupt eventually because of high oil prices, but it feels like it is one of those things that you wanna keep using for as long as you are physically or financially capable of doing so?

我将从三个不同的角度来谈。

I'll talk about three different angles here.

首先是价格弹性与收入无弹性之间的区别。

So the first is the difference between the elasticity of price versus the in elasticity of income.

我认为，当我们通常谈论需求破坏时，主要想到的是价格太高了，所以今天我不开车去上班了。

So I think there's the one question of I think when we typically think about demand destruction, we think of it primarily through the lens of like, prices got too high, so I'm not gonna drive to work today.

还有一种情况是，价格涨得太高，导致经济崩溃，你丢了工作，因此你不再需要开车去上班了。

There's also the angle of prices got so high, they crashed the economy and you lost your job, so you no longer have to drive to work.

如果这种情况持续更长时间，这就是其中一个角度。

So that is one angle if this goes on for much longer.

我们谈论的不是一般的经济衰退，如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭一个月以上，甚至两个月，可能会引发严重的经济衰退，甚至是全球性的萧条。

We're not talking like, we're talking serious recession, if not like outright global depressionary conditions if the Strait remains closed for a month plus, you know, two months.

所以，这是一个角度。

So there's- that's the one angle.

但当我们谈到，嗯，我同意。

But when we talk about, you know, I agree.

我不会停止开车送孩子上学。

I'm not gonna stop driving my kid to school.

我对高价有相当高的容忍度，但我们生活在富裕的发达国家。

I have a fairly high tolerance for high prices, but we live in wealthy advanced societies.

我认为2022年液化天然气市场发生的情况就很好地说明了这一点：当时有一艘原本应停靠巴基斯坦的合同液化天然气运输船，是的，

I think what you saw, for instance, in 2022, I think is illustrative of this in the LNG market, when there was a very, very high profile event when a contracted LNG tanker that was supposed to land in Pakistan Yep.

被改道去了欧洲，因为欧洲人愿意支付高得多的价格，液化天然气供应商因此违约去服务欧洲市场——这符合经济逻辑，但我认为其人文代价是真实存在的。

Got diverted and ended up in Europe because the Europeans were willing to pay way, way more, and basically, the LNG supplier broke the contract to service that, which economics dictated, but I think the human cost was very real.

巴基斯坦根本负担不起。

Pakistan just couldn't afford it.

所以，假设在这种糟糕的情境下，霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭到2027年，这就是世界会呈现的样子。

So what you're going to see here, let's say again, in this horrible scenario where the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed until 2027, this is what the world would look like.

你将看到的是，低收入国家因无力负担这些原油而出现大规模需求萎缩，根本无法将这些油轮吸引到自己的海岸。

What you would end up seeing is massive demand destruction from lower income countries that can no longer afford to get those barrels and attract them to their shores in the first place.

对你我来说，这会表现为加油站价格飙升，我们会抱怨，消费支出能力被削弱等等，但这些原油很可能依然存在。

So you and I would see this as massively surging prices at pump, and we would grumble, and it would it would sap our consumer spending energy, etcetera, etcetera, but the barrels would likely be there.

我们所在的国家将吸引最多的供应，因为我们愿意支付最高价格。

We are in the countries that will attract the most supplies because we're willing to pay the highest prices.

但世界上其他较低收入的国家，对他们来说这不再是价格问题。

But other lower income countries in the world, it's not gonna be a price issue for them.

而将是彻底的短缺。

It's gonna be an outright shortage.

我认为，这正是在这种情况下需求萎缩的运作方式。

And that, I think, is how demand destruction in this particular instance would work.

今天的节目由先锋集团赞助。

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard.

致所有聆听的理财顾问，我们来聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益市场中捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场庞大而复杂，说实话，许多公司只是抛出几只花哨的基金就了事。

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但Vanguard不是这样。

But not Vanguard.

在Vanguard，机构级品质不是一句口号。

At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline.

而是对客户的承诺。

It's a commitment to your clients.

我们提供全方位的优质产品，涵盖80多只债券基金，由一支200人的全球专业团队——包括行业专家、分析师和交易员——主动管理。

We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200 person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

这些人全身心投入固定收益领域。

These folks live and breathe fixed income.

所以，如果你希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，不妨亲自去vanguard.com/audio看看他们的业绩记录。

So, if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资都存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

先锋营销公司，分销商。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

您可以随时通过彭博新闻现在获取新闻。

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

我是艾米·莫里斯。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是凯伦·莫斯科，今天来向您介绍我们的全新点播新闻报道，直接推送至您的播客订阅中。

And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.

彭博新闻现在是一份时长五分钟的音频简报，聚焦当日最重要的新闻。

Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.

节目全天多次发布，提供最新信息和数据，助您随时掌握动态。

Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

是的。

Yes.

其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重复播放其广播新闻。

There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.