纸箱末日与美国经济现状

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大家好，欢迎收听新一期的《奇思妙想播客》。我是特蕾西·阿拉维。

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway.

我是乔·维森塔尔。

And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.

乔，我要提出一个想法，你告诉我它是什么。好吗？

Joe, I am gonna put something on the table, and you tell me what it is. Okay?

说吧。

Go on.

所有

All

好的。我开始了。这个

right. Here I go. This

我认为这是一个瓦楞纸板箱，上面贴着写有'易碎品'的胶带。我猜尺寸大概是——我不太擅长估算——大约是18英寸乘36英寸，差不多这样。

is a corrugated, I believe, cardboard box and has tape that says fragile. And I would guess it's about I don't know. I'm not good at measurements. It'd be 18 inches by 36 inches, something like that.

这是一个非常具体的箱子物理描述。

That is a very good physical description of a box.

就是个纸板箱。

It's a cardboard box.

不过我要说你错了。它实际上是一个宏观经济指标。另一个可接受的答案是——它是Oddlots标志的一部分。

However, I'm gonna say you're wrong. It is in fact a macroeconomic indicator. The other acceptable answer is it's part of the Oddlots logo.

没错没错。它是个箱子，而且是Oddlots的核心元素。但你知道，当我们说到箱子时，人们通常不会首先想到'魔法金钱箱'这种积极计划，也不会立刻联想到集装箱船——在《箱子》这本书里经常这样称呼。

That's right. That's right. It's a box, and that is core to Odd Lots. But, you know, now we're gonna talk about literally when you think box, you don't often first think magic money box positive scheme. And when you think box, you often don't necessarily think of a container ship, which is often called a box as in the book the box.

但我认为当人们想到箱子时，他们想到的就是纸板箱，无论是不是瓦楞纸的。

But I think when people think about a box, they think about a cardboard box, corrugated or not.

顺便说一句，现在正是思考箱子的好时机，因为最近有些相关评论，我们基本上经历了一场'箱子末日'

Now is a very good time to be thinking about boxes, by the way, because there's been some commentary about this, but we basically had a sort of box pocalypse

是的。

Yeah.

在美国。

In The States.

我们还在开一个吗？

Are we still having one?

陪审团意见不一，我们会在讨论中深入探讨。但美国纸箱运输量——也就是装纸箱的纸箱，我觉得这很有趣。哦，是的。纸箱套娃。总之，美国纸箱运输量已降至2015年以来的第二季度最低水平。

Jury's kind of out, and we'll get into that in the discussion. But US box shipments so boxes of boxes, which I find funny. Oh, yeah. Of boxception. Anyway, US box shipments have fallen to the lowest second quarter reading since 2015.

这是根据纤维纸箱协会的数据。

That's according to the Fiber Box Association.

可能，就像，可能，就像，它们是，就像，折叠起来的。是的。前码头。是的。所以有一堆它们，可能用塑料之类的东西包裹着。

Probably, like, probably, like, they're, like, folded up. Yeah. Front dock. Yeah. So you a bunch of them, they're maybe wrapped in plastic or something like that.

所以这些的运输量是自2015年以来的最低水平。

So shipments of those lowest since, 2015.

是的。而且我认为还有一些其他数据值得我们深入探讨，比如这是自金融危机以来最糟糕的情况等等。显然，令人担忧的是箱子通常装着人们购买的商品。对吧？所以如果没人买箱子，这对零售支出、消费者健康状况以及整体经济走向意味着什么？

Yeah. And I think there are some other numbers we can get into that are, like, the worst since the financial crisis and things like that. And, obviously, the concern is boxes tend to contain products that people are buying. Right? So if no one's buying boxes, what does that say about retail spending, the health of the consumer, and the direction of the broader economy?

这时候你就涉及到宏观经济指标的范畴了。

That's when you get into the macro indicator stuff.

你知道，我热爱电子商务，但我讨厌拆箱子。

You know, I love ecommerce, but I hate breaking down boxes.

我懂。

I know.

我 它

I it

太烦人了。然后你就会想，撕

so much. And then you're like, rip

开它。

it up.

从来都不快。我希望在易折叠性方面看到一些创新

There's no it's never quick. I would like to see some innovation on the ease of collapsibility of

知道我做了什么吗？因为我经常买东西，我训练我的狗撕开亚马逊箱子。

You know what I did? Because I buy a lot. I trained my dog to rip apart Amazon boxes.

哦，太棒了。

Oh, that's amazing.

但后来它有点罢工，不干了。

But then he kinda went on strike and stopped doing it.

哦，那本来会很酷的。

Oh, that would've been cool.

让你的孩子来做。对，让他们干活。好了，很高兴地说，我们确实请到了最合适的嘉宾。

Get your kids to do it. Yeah. Put them to work. Okay. Well, I am happy to say we do in fact have the perfect guest.

我们将与Ryan Fox交谈。他是彭博智库的容器与包装分析师。Ryan，非常感谢你来到《奇思妙想》。

We're gonna be speaking with Ryan Fox. He is a containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Ryan, thanks so much for coming on Odd Thoughts.

谢谢邀请我来。

Thanks for having me.

能亲自见到你真是太好了，因为我们通过IB聊了一段时间关于纸箱的话题。我不知道这怎么会变得如此吸引我，但可能是因为我们看到的下降趋势。给我们讲讲数据吧。比如，纸箱的实际出货量下降得有多严重？

It's so nice to actually meet you in person because we've been IB ing for a while talking about boxes. I don't know how this became so interesting to me, but probably because of the decline that we've been seeing. Walk us through the numbers. Like, how bad is the actual fall in boxes of boxes, shipments of boxes?

是的。当我们考虑纸箱出货时，它们是以你所说的‘拆平式’或简称KDF的方式运输的。

Yes. So when we think about box shipments, they are shipped, like you said, Knock Down Flat or KDF for short.

KDF代表，哦，拆平式（Knock Down Flat）。太棒了。我已经学到东西了。

KDF stands for, oh, Knock Down Flat. Amazing. I already learned something.

所以它们有时用托盘运输，但最终会进入美国的终端市场，比如食品制造商、饮料制造商、工业产品制造商。美国消费的纸箱中约有50%会通过杂货店。这是一个很好的思考角度。我们看到的是，上半年纸箱出货量下降了约2.3%。这主要是由于关税带来的不确定性。疫情期间我们看到大幅增长，第一年纸箱出货量增长了约3.5%，实际上是2.4%，第二年又增长了3.5%。

And so they're shipped sometimes on pallets, but they're going to, in The US, end markets like food manufacturers, beverage manufacturers, people who make industrial products, about 50% of the boxes that we consume in The US are going to go through a grocery store. So that's a really good way to think about it. What we've seen, box shipments have fallen in the first half about 2.3%. And this is largely due to uncertainties that are stemming from tariffs. We saw a big ramp up during the pandemic where box shipments grew the first year of the pandemic by about three and a half percent, actually 2.4%, then three and a half percent the following year.

具体来说，我们以十亿平方英尺为单位讨论纸箱出货量。哦，当我们说到十亿平方英尺时，比如4000亿平方英尺可以绕地球30圈左右。这是一个非常庞大的

When we think about it in concrete terms, we talk about box shipments in terms of billions of square feet. Oh. And when we talk about billions of square feet, like 400,000,000,000 square feet would wrap around the Earth, like, 30 times or something like that. It's a very big

数字。这里具体测量的是什么？

number. What exactly is being measured here?

对。所以如果你拿这个盒子

Right. So if you were to take this box

这里

here

然后我们把它全部拆开

and we were to tear it all apart and

有 好的。好的。

there's Okay. Okay.

顺便说一下，这是一个普通开槽纸箱。

So by the way, this is a this is a regular slotted carton.

好的。

Okay.

这是一个双层纸箱。

This is a double wall box.

等等。这是什么意思？那意味着它不是瓦楞纸吗？

Wait. What is it? That means it's not corrugated?

不，这是瓦楞纸。好吧，让我们稍微插一句题外话。实际上，纸板并不是这个。

No. This is corrugated. Okay. So let's let's take a little quick parenthetical thought here. So cardboard is actually not this.

对于所有纸箱爱好者来说，这是一个瓦楞纤维板箱。

This is a corrugated fiberboard box for all you box nerds out there.

哦，好吧。

Oh, okay.

这个箱子，这个特别的箱子是双层的。所以有五层。平坦的那层叫做衬纸，中间波浪状的部分叫做芯纸。

This box has this particular one is a double wall. So there's five layers. The flat sheet is called liner. The wavy part in the middle is called medium.

你现在是不是，就像，在天堂一样？

Are you, like, in heaven right now?

我现在简直就是在天堂。你根本想象不到。

I am so much in heaven right now. You don't even know.

我一直说这个。不，你可以继续，不用停。好吧。

I Keep talking about it. No. You can you don't have to stop. Alright.

所以如果我们把这个东西展开，分开胶合缝，平铺开来，你只需要做基础数学计算，用卷尺测量宽度和长度，这样就能以平方英尺为单位测量。这个箱子被裁切过，所以看起来没有实际那么大，但大概在20平方英尺左右。如果想量可以量，但我们不量了。但如果你对每个箱子都这么做，这就是他们的测量方式。真正重要的是这些箱子是由各种不同机器制造的，之所以叫瓦楞纸箱是因为它是在瓦楞机上制作的。

So if we were to if we were to unfold this thing, separate the glue seam, and lay it out flat, and you just do basic math, where you take your tape measure and you go width and length, so that would measure it in terms of square footage. And this box right here has been cut down so it doesn't look as big as it really is, but it's probably somewhere around 20 square feet. Could measure it if we wanted to, but we won't. But if you were to do that for every single box, that's how they will measure it. What's really kind of important is these boxes are made on a variety of different machines, and one of the reasons why it's called a corrugated box is it's made on a corrugator.

这种机器使用不同种类的纸张，将它们层压粘合在一起。通常用玉米淀粉或其他淀粉产品粘合。其中一个机制叫瓦楞辊，那是一个带有细小皱纹的辊子。他们用蒸汽处理纸张，形成那些小拱形，这就是纸板强度的来源。这些细小结构有不同的尺寸。

And that's a machine that takes different kinds of paper, and it laminates together. They stick together with typically cornstarch or some other starch product. So one of the mechanisms is called a corrugated roll, and it's a it's a roll with these little wrinkles in it. They steam the paper, and it forms those little arches, and that's what gives the board its strength. There are different sizes of these little things.

比如，它们被称为瓦楞，但你不能演奏它们。它们不会发出任何音乐。

Like, they're and they're called flutes, but you can't play them. They don't make any music.

为什么这么有趣。

Why does so interesting.

超级有趣。我们就继续聊这个箱子吧。瓦楞工艺是什么让它更坚固的？

It's super interesting. Let's just keep talking about this box. What is it about the corrugation process that makes it stronger?

从物理学的角度来看，是它赋予了箱子形状和实质。这背后有很多科学原理。事实上，我们现在有方法可以仅通过数学计算来预测箱子在现实情况下的表现。

So from a physics standpoint, it's what gives the box its shape and substance. And there is a lot of science that goes behind this. In fact, we now have ways to predict how the box will perform in real world situations just mathematically.

我们做那种把箱子打来打去的箱体测试吗？

Do we do box testing where we, like, beat up a box?

当然要做。是的。对很多公司来说，他们必须通过ISTA（国际安全运输协会）的认证。他们实际上会测试箱子，确保它能经受住UPS或FedEx的运输，有些情况下甚至要确保无论发生什么，箱子都能完好无损。这些测试可能要花费数千美元。

Absolutely. Yeah. And so for a lot of companies, they have to go through the ISTA, International Safe Transit Authority. They actually test the box to make sure it will hold up against UPS or FedEx, or in some instances, they go so far as to make sure that no matter what happens, it's gonna survive. And those tests can cost thousands of dollars.

所以这是一个非常严谨的过程。

So it's it's a very robust process.

最好的箱子是什么？在我们继续之前——在我们继续之前

What's the best box? Before we go before we go

讨论当前的情况之前。每个人都有自己的最爱。我是说，作为成年人，当你收到那个箱子并感叹'这真是个'的时候，你就真正进入成年期了。

into what what's happening right now. Everyone has their favorite box. I mean, as adults, we you've you've really gotten into adulthood when you get that box, and you're like, that's a really

好箱子。

good box.

任何容易折叠的箱子。

Anything that's easy to collapse.

任何容易坍塌的东西都是一种方式。

Anything that's easy to collapse is one way.

不。任何容易打开的东西。我喜欢拉链式的开合。

No. Anything that's easy to open. I like the zipper zipper.

是的。很多人喜欢拉链式的开合方式。有些盒子设计得非常精巧，几乎不需要费力就能组装好。它们可以折叠并自行锁定。哦，是的。

Yeah. A of people like the the zipper pulls. There are some boxes that are very elaborate, and they don't require much at all to set them up. They kind of fold and lock in on themselves. Oh, yeah.

我们称那些为模切盒。它们是用一个看起来像大饼干切割器的模切刀制作的，可以做出任何你想要的形状。最流行的款式是我们所谓的卷边盒，它们可以内折，也可以外折。但这确实是一个很不错的盒子。如果你在网上买东西，可能会看到这种盒子，它们真的在追求那种“哇”的效果，因为打开盒子展示产品时会有那种“嗒哒”的惊喜感。

We call those die cut boxes. They are made from a cutting die that looks like a big cookie cutter, and they will make any shape that you want to make. The most popular style is what we call a roll end box, and they can tuck on the inside, they can tuck on the outside. But this is really a nice box. It's it's a box that you might see if you were to buy something online, and they're really trying to go for that wow factor because they're gonna get for that ta da, kinda open the box and show off the product.

等等。我们再多谈谈桌上的这个盒子。比如，你在这个领域学得够多了吗？你能说，哦，我觉得这个来自某家工厂或某年，或者你还有其他见解吗？

Wait. Let's talk more about this box on the table here. Like, are you learned enough in the space? You could say, like, oh, I think this came from x mill or x year or, like, you have any other insights here?

好的。好的。所以这个盒子上没有... 好吧，我没看到。但在大多数美国制造的盒子上，盒子底部会有一个小小的印章。

Okay. Okay. So this box doesn't have it Okay. That I can see. But on most boxes that are made in The USA, there is a small little stamp on the bottom of the box.

它是圆形的，叫做制盒商认证标志。

It's round, and it's called a box maker's certificate.

好的。

Okay.

美国大约有1100家生产瓦楞纸箱的工厂。箱子底部的那个小印章会告诉你哪家公司制造了这个箱子以及它的位置，更具体地说，它会告诉你这些材料是由什么制成的。你可能会觉得，嗯，这有点傻乎乎的细节，但这可以追溯到六十多年前。实际上，它可以追溯到一百多年前箱子刚开始出现的时候。大多数人都不知道瓦楞纸箱只有130、140年的历史。

There are around 1,100 facilities in The US that make corrugated boxes. And that little stamp on the bottom will tell you what company made the box and where it's located, and more specifically, it will tell you what the stuff is made of. You might go, well, that's kind of a stupid detail, but it goes back over sixty years. It actually goes back over a hundred years to when boxes were first starting to come around. Most people don't know that corrugated boxes are only a 130, 140 years old.

直到19世纪90年代末才被广泛采用。

Only implemented in the late eighteen nineties.

我正在努力回想

I'm trying to think

在此之前，有人说过，乔，你认为

of before this, someone said, Joe, when do you think the

第一个瓦楞纸箱是什么时候？好像我连猜都猜不出来。不管怎样，继续说吧。

first corrugated box? As if I would have even begin to have a guess. Anyway, keep going.

所以在20世纪初，也就是1900年代早期，公司们正在寻找运输产品的方法。那时他们唯一的运输工具，我们还没有18轮大卡车。我们有火车。所以铁路公司在铺设新铁轨时，他们砍伐森林，有很多木材可以利用，于是他们做了什么？他们制造了板条箱。

So right after the turn of the century in the early nineteen hundreds, companies were looking for ways to ship their product. The only mechanism they had in that time, we we didn't really have 18 wheelers. We had trains. And so the rail companies, as they were making new rails, they were cutting down forests, they had lots of wood to do something with, so what did they do? They made crates.

但板条箱非常昂贵，而且非常沉重。因此人们开始寻找替代品，于是发明了瓦楞纸箱。这背后还有个有趣的纽约故事。Dumbo区是Gare大楼的所在地，而Gare是纸质包装的早期先驱之一。

But crates were very expensive, and they were very heavy. And so people were looking for alternatives, and they came up with a corrugated box. It actually goes back funny New York story. The Dumbo area is home to the Gare Building, And Gare was one of the early pioneers of paper packaging.

然后

And

他算是偶然发现可以通过压痕纸张来制作这些精美的小盒子。

he kinda discovered by accident that you could score paper and and create these nice little boxes.

我以后再也不会用同样的眼光看Dumbo了。好吧，这倒提醒了我。造纸行业真正的巨头有哪些？因为我一时半会儿可能一个都说不出来。

I will never look at Dumbo the same way again. Okay. Actually, that reminds me. So who are the actual big players in the paper industry? Because I don't think I could name a single one off the top of my head.

我知道。哦，是谁？国际纸业和以前的斯墨菲卡帕集团。

I can. Oh, who? International Paper in what used to be Smurfit Stone.

哦，对，斯墨菲。好吧。

Oh, yeah. Smurfit. Okay.

是的，不错。

Yeah. That's good.

你说得完全正确。国际纸业最近规模更大了，他们收购了来自

So you're exactly right. International Paper recently got even bigger. They acquired DS Smith out of

有一家叫皇冠的

was one named Crown.

皇冠也还在。他们现在应该还在运营

Crown was also Okay. There's still around.

知道这个吗？

Know this?

其实，大约二十年前我短暂担任股票分析师期间，我想我对这个领域做过一些研究

I actually, in the brief time when I was an equity analyst over about twenty years ago, I think I did a little research into this space.

纸箱分析师。同行纸箱分析师啊

Box analyst. A fellow box analyst.

没错。时间很短。我涉足过纸箱领域。总之，请继续

Yeah. Right. Very brief. I dabble in box. Anyway, keep going.

是的。国际纸业最近收购了DS Smith。他们变得更大了。他们一直与总部位于爱尔兰都柏林的Smurfit Kappa保持同步，后者收购了美国的WestRock。他们成为了第一家全球性的超级公司。

Yeah. So International Paper recently bought DS Smith. They got even bigger. They were keeping pace with Smurfit Kappa, based out of Dublin, Ireland, who bought WestRock, who's here in The US. They became kind of the first global, like, mega company.

国际纸业也紧随其后。所以他们是美国最大的两家公司，也是世界上最大的。美国包装公司是美国第三大公司，其次是乔治亚太平洋、普拉特工业，以及各种较小的独立公司。

IP followed suit. So they're the two biggest in The US and the biggest in the world. Packaging Corporation of America is number three in The US, followed by Georgia Pacific, Pratt Industries, a variety of smaller independents.

现在，另一个问题是，其他箱子也是用树木做的，对吧？木材来自树木。我们在节目中多次讨论过木材，我们了解到，木材行业出现了整合，特别是在大金融危机之后，工厂产能大幅减少。这主要与住房市场有关，那是重灾区。但过去二十年，从大金融危机之前到2010年代再到现在的美国工厂产能情况如何？

Now, other thing, one of the other boxes come from trees, right? Lumber comes from trees. Know, we've talked about lumber a lot on this show, one of the things that we learned, you know, there's been consolidation in the lumber space, but also particularly after the great financial crisis, there was a lot of reduction in mill capacity. Now that's related to housing specifically, which was ground zero. But what is the story of American mill capacity over the last twenty years from prior to the great financial crisis to the 2010s to now?

我们确实没有看到像二十年前那样大量新增工厂产能。有一些投资，也有一些新工厂建成。我在加入彭博社之前曾在瓦楞包装行业工作了十年，为一家拥有自己造纸厂的综合公司工作。我工作过的工厂是100%使用回收材料的。

We really didn't see a whole lot of new mill capacity come along like twenty years ago. There was some investment. There were there were some new mills that would come along. I actually spent ten years working in the corrugated packaging industry before coming to Bloomberg and worked for one of those integrated companies who has their own paper mills. The mills that I worked for were 100% recycled.

所以他们的部分投资会在过去二十年中显现出来。他们在过去二十年建造了许多最新的工厂。但我们在疫情期间确实看到了爆炸性增长。2023年，新增了250万吨100%回收容器纸板制造产能上线。容器纸板是一个技术术语。

So some of their investment would have shown up in that last twenty years. They've built many of the most recent mills over the last twenty years. But we really saw an explosion of growth right around the time of the pandemic. So in 2023, two and a half million tons of new 100% recycled container board making capacity came online. And now container board is a technical term.

这是用于这些箱子的纸张的总称。所以容器纸板包括挂面纸板和/或芯纸。这只是一个总称。

It's the big term for the paper that goes in these boxes. So container board means liner board and or the medium. So it's just a big term.

所以疫情期间，大家都在运送面粉做酸面包之类的东西，或者趁机能买新烤箱改造房子。回到箱子作为宏观经济指标的想法。我的意思是，我确实看到人们时不时地讨论箱子作为领先指标的想法。这虽然非传统，但有些人确实这么做。在试图了解消费者状况方面，跟踪箱子运输或箱子行业有多大价值？

So everyone's shipping flour for their, like, sourdough or something during the pandemic or buying new ovens to remodel their houses while they can. Just going back to the idea of the box as a macroeconomic indicator. I mean, I do see people talking about, like, this idea of boxes as a leading indicator every once in a while. It is unconventional, but some people do it. How valuable are box shipments or tracking the box industry in terms of trying to figure out what's going on with the consumer?

对消费者来说非常重要。正如我所说，大约50%的纸箱消费将通过杂货店进行。

Very important for the consumer. Like I said, about 50% of box consumption is going to go through a grocery store.

所以

So

当你开始看到纸箱运输量下滑时，我们可能需要关注杂货店和消费品公司，看看那里发生了什么。过去两年我们确实看到了极具挑战性的消费环境。我个人认为，根据我们所观察到的情况，我们正处于消费品衰退期。2025年，纸箱运输量比疫情高峰期下降了12%。这是巨大的下滑。

when you start to see box shipments slip, we probably need to be looking at grocery stores and CPG companies to see what's going on there. And we have seen a very challenged consumer environment over the last two years. My personal opinion, I would say we're in a consumer goods recession because of what we've seen. 2025, box shipments were down 12% from the height of the pandemic. That's a massive falloff.

早些时候我们谈到如何以十亿平方英尺为单位衡量这些数据。2021年，我们达到了4160亿平方英尺。而上半年只有这个数字的一半左右，大约是2080亿。情况确实很糟糕。

So earlier, we talked about how we would measure these things in billions of square feet. Well, in 2021, we hit four sixteen billion square feet. The first half was right around half of that. So like about two zero eight. It was really bad.

快速计算显示2025年是1900亿平方英尺。嗯。所以下滑幅度相当大。

Quick math was a 190,000,000,000 square feet for the 2025. Mhmm. So pretty big fall off.

是的。

Yeah.

本节目由Nuveen为您呈现。如果您知道未来正在注视，您会如何投资？对Nuveen而言，这并非理论问题。这种视角源于我们驾驭125年市场周期的经验，运用前瞻性思维创新并适应全球投资者不断变化的需求，始终坚定不移地为客户、社区和全球经济追求持久绩效。Nuveen。

This message is brought to you by Nuveen. How would you invest if you knew the future was watching? At Nuveen, this isn't a theoretical question. It's a perspective that comes from navigating one hundred and twenty five years of market cycles, using foresight to innovate and adapt to the changing needs of investors around the world, and remaining steadfast in the pursuit of lasting performance for clients, communities and the global economy. Nuveen.

投资如同未来在注视。访问 nuveen.com/future 了解更多。投资涉及风险。本金可能损失。

Invest like the future is watching. Visit nuveen.com/future to learn more. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

好的。创造力和组织想法并不总是相辅相成，但Canva将它们无缝结合，并增添了许多价值。情况是这样的：你有一个愿景，比如说一个演示文稿的好点子。你脑海中的演示文稿堪称完美，满分12分里能打12分。

Okay. Creativity and organizing ideas don't always go together, but Canva brings them together seamlessly, and it adds so much. It's like this. You've got a vision, great idea for, let's say, a presentation. The presentation in your head is a 12 out of 10.

你和你的老板都会获得起立鼓掌。人人加薪。但将脑海中的演示变成实际的演示文稿，完全是另一回事。这涉及到大约二十多个复杂的应用程序，时间不够，而且说实话，你并不真正知道自己在做什么。有了Canva，你可以用一个应用程序将所有想法集中在一个地方。

Standing ovations for you and your boss. Raises all around. But turning the presentation in your mind into an actual presentation, something else entirely. There are, like, two dozen complicated apps involved, not enough time, and to be honest, you don't really know what you're doing. With Canva, you can bring all your ideas together in one place with one app.

使用人工智能加速进程，并邀请他人协助，因为团队合作让团队运转。我可能说错了。重点是，你的演示文稿会看起来很棒。你会看起来很棒。每个人都会看起来很棒。

Use AI to speed things up and bring other people in to help because teamwork makes the team work. I might have gotten that wrong. Point is, your presentation will look great. You'll look great. Everybody will look great.

而这难道不正是

And isn't that what

你所追求的吗？95%的财富500强公司使用Canva是有原因的。Canva让你能像思考一样快速地将想法变为现实。让想象力发挥作用，请访问 canva.com。

you're after? There's a reason 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva. Canva lets you bring your ideas to life as fast as you can think of them. Put imagination to work at canva.com.

Hiscock小型企业保险深知没有哪家企业像您的企业一样独特。全美超过60万家小型企业，从会计师、建筑师到摄影师和瑜伽教练，都信赖Hiscox保险提供保障。通过快速简便的在线报价，在hiscox.com找到适应您小型企业需求的灵活保障方案。网址是hiscox.com。没有比小型企业更特别的企业了。

Hiscock Small Business Insurance knows there is no business like your business. Across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors look to Hiscox Insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online quote at hiscox.com. That's hisc0x.com. There's no business like small business.

Hiscox 小企业保险。

Hiscox Small Business Insurance.

价格方面发生了什么变化？这很明显对吧？所以测量平方英尺是一回事。价格方面到底发生了什么？

What's happening with prices? And so obviously right? So measuring square feet is one thing. What is happening with prices?

嗯，关于定价的讨论确实充满了争议。那么是什么驱动了定价？真的是供需关系吗？还是更多基于成本？在美国的很多很多年里，它是基于供需的，当工厂运营率达到96%，库存变得非常低时，他们就会提高价格。

Well, the pricing discussion is one that is sure full of controversy. So what drives pricing? Is it truly supply and demand? Is it something that's more cost based? For many, many years in The US, it was supply demand based, where mill operating rates would hit 96%, inventories would get real low, they would raise prices.

或者相反，工厂运营率降到90%以下，库存上升，价格就会下降。但在过去一年半里，我们实际上看到这些基本面都没有成立。工厂运营率勉强达到90%。第一季度末库存达到了五周，但价格仍然上涨了。

Or the opposite, mill operating rates would go below 90%, inventories would rise, and prices would fall. But over the last year and a half, we've actually seen none of those fundamentals hold up. Mill operating rates have barely been 90%. Inventories hit five weeks at the end of the first quarter, and yet prices still went up.

五周是很多

Five weeks is a lot of

库存。五周是很多库存。历史平均水平大约是四周。设定底线的话，三周半。当库存比这更少时，就会有点危险。

inventory. Five weeks is a lot of inventory. Historical averages are around four weeks. To kind of set the floor there, three and a half weeks. It gets a little dangerous when it's a little lighter than that.

我们开始担心供应链问题。大约一半的箱板纸是在造纸厂生产，然后通过铁路运到纸箱厂的。铁路运输不如零担运输（LTL）或整车运输那么快速高效。但通过铁路可以运输比卡车更多的卷筒纸。所以你需要多一点时间来允许这些卷筒纸的运输。

We start worrying about supply chain issues. About half of the container board is made out of paper mill and shipped by rail to a box plant. And rail isn't quite as fast and efficient as an LTL or will actually be a full truckload. But you can carry more rolls by rail than you can by a truck. So you kind of have to have a little bit more of that time to allow for the transit for those roles.

你对造纸公司为何在库存似乎很高、需求下降的情况下反而提高价格有什么看法？

What's your take on why paper companies are actually increasing prices even, you know, when inventory seems to be high and demand is going down?

嗯，你问这个很有意思。四年前我开始尝试研究是否能预测市场动向，于是我们整合了一系列输入数据，由于在这个行业工作过，我们多少知道其中的门道。我们做的是将这些输入数据与历史变动进行关联分析，我们的算法能解释93%的价格变动原因。这是为彭博终端客户开发的

Well, it's funny you asked that. So four years ago, I started trying to figure out if we could read the tea leaves, so And to we put together a mix of inputs, and having worked in the industry, we kind of know how the sausage is made. And what we did was we put together this series of inputs, and we correlated it back to historic movements. And our algorithm explains 93% of the reasons why prices have moved. For Bloomberg terminal clients

是纸箱定价算法吗？

a box pricing algo?

没错。就是终端用户使用的BCBCI指数

Yeah. So BCBCI index for people who are on the terminal.

哦对，我正在调取这个数据。BC继续运行良好。BCB

Oh, yeah. I'm pulling this up right now. BC keep going well. BCB

彭博等等。这是什么？BCI

bloom wait. What is it? BCI.

是的。BCBCI

Yeah. BCBCI.

代表彭博瓦楞纸箱成本指数。直到今年我们进行最后一次多元回归分析时，该指数的R平方值达到93%。所以它非常准确，对吧？但今年行业定价与我们的指数出现了背离，尽管成本在下降，价格却上涨了。

Stands for Bloomberg Corrugated Box Cost Index. And up until this year, when we did our the last multiple regression analysis, it had a 93% R square. So it was really good. Right? Well, pricing in the industry diverted from our index this year, where prices went up, even though costs are going down.

这其实并非完全异常。我们在2017、2018年的指数中也曾见过这种现象，只是没有今年这么明显。

And that's actually not a complete anomaly. We did see this in our index a few years back in 2017, 2018, but it wasn't quite as pronounced.

抱歉打断一下，我想确认理解正确。我看到的是纸箱成本指数，所以重点在于：即使图表上的这条线在下降，纸箱价格仍然可能上涨。

Oh, so sorry. Just to be clear, because I want to get this right. The index that I'm looking at is the box cost index. So it's not so much that it's measuring the cost of box box prices can go up even though this line on the chart is rolling over.

正确。

Correct.

这一点很重要。

This is important.

是的。有些人称之为有机利润率扩张，也有人用更生动的词汇描述。但在美国，90%的行业都是垂直整合的，这意味着他们拥有自己的造纸厂。

Yeah. And some might call this kind of organic margin expansion. Others have more colorful words for it. But in The US, 90% of the industry is vertically integrated. And what that means is they have their own paper mills.

他们将纸张运往自己的纸箱厂，然后销售给自己的客户。因此与其他地区不同，这里几乎没有开放市场。在欧洲等其他地区，他们没有这种垂直整合程度，所以存在更健全的开放市场，正常的供需基本面会推动价格下降。如果库存严重过剩，价格必然下跌。

They move that paper to their own box plants and sell it to their own customers. And so there really isn't much of an open market the way there is in other regions. In other regions like in Europe, they don't have that vertical integration level. And so there is a much more robust open market, and it drives prices down because of normal supply demand fundamentals. If you do have just an absolute blood of inventory, prices are going to fall.

我们的最佳数据显示，全球范围内，箱板纸的供应过剩量约为5000万吨。这不仅仅是美国的情况，而是一个全球数字。但这确实会改变你的认知框架。

Our best data says globally, we have around 50,000,000 tons of oversupply of containerboard. Now, we don't have that just in The US. That's a global number. But that does alter your frame of consciousness.

顺便说一句，特雷西，这真是太棒了。每个人都应该去彭博终端看看，因为我现在正在阅读描述该方法的PDF文件。顺便提一下，权重包括柴油成本、烧碱成本、天然气价格、美国再生纤维价格、玉米价格指数、维修保养费用、平均卡车运费、美国平均时薪。他们就是这样推导出Odebox成本的。整个过程详细说明了所有方法。

Tracy, by the way, this is just so fantastic. Everyone should go to Bloomberg Terminal, because now I'm reading the PDF that describes the methodology. The weights, by the way, are the cost of diesel, the cost of caustic soda, natural gas price, US recycled fiber price, corn price index, repair and maintenance, average truck rate, US average hourly earnings. And this is how they derive the cost of Odebox. It walks through all the methodology.

这确实非常棒。

It's really fantastic.

想到玉米竟然是纸箱的投入要素，这真是太有趣了。

It's so funny to think that corn is an input into boxes.

根据彭博的方法论，权重百分比。最大的权重是美国再生纤维价格，占37%。

Percent weight according to the Bloomberg methodology. The biggest weight is The US recycled fiber price of 37%.

有道理。关于库存方面，今年纸箱运输量的下降有多少仅仅是因为库存积压？我们对此与需求相比有清晰的了解吗？

Makes sense. Just on the inventory, how much of the decline this year in terms of box shipments is just an inventory glut? Do we have, like, a good read on that versus demand?

从纸箱的角度来看，我们对此没有清晰的了解。

From a box standpoint, we don't have a good read on that.

好的。

Okay.

如果我们考虑杂货店的情况，那些纸箱周转非常快。根据我在这个行业的经验，纸箱会在纸箱厂生产出来，然后运送给客户。我们想象一下通用磨坊、家乐氏、好时这些我们熟知的大品牌。纸箱不一定会在他们的仓库里存放很久。

If we're thinking about the grocery store, those boxes turn over very quickly. Having worked in the industry, the box is going get made at the box plant. It's going to go to a customer. We're going to think like General Mills and Kellogg's and Hershey's and all of the big brand names that we know. It's not going to necessarily sit in their facility for very long.

可能三十天内就会重新进入流通系统。实际上，我去杂货店时——我的孩子们很讨厌和我一起去购物，因为我总是翻看纸箱看是谁生产的——但有时候，纸箱上会印有生产日期的戳记。

It will maybe get back into the system within thirty days. In fact, I've been to the grocery store, and my kids hate it when we go to the grocery store, because I'm always turning over boxes to see who made them. But sometimes, they will date stamp the boxes as to when they were produced.

哦。

Oh.

我见过最快三十天就出现在店里的情况。而且经常地，当斯墨菲卡帕收购西洛克时，我在交易完成后的九十天内就能看到全新的斯墨菲-西洛克BMC纸箱。所以这是个有趣的小细节。如果你从现在开始发现自己也在翻看纸箱

And I've seen as quick as thirty days in the store. And oftentimes, when Smurfit Kappa bought WestRock, I was able to see a brand new Smurfit WestRock BMC within ninety days of that transaction. So it's just an interesting little, like, tidbit. And if you just find yourself turning boxes over from now on

你可以开始

You could just start

这么做了。

doing that.

包装箱的平方英尺尺寸与实际售出的箱内商品之间关系的稳定性如何？我之所以这么问，是因为我记得最初几次在线订购杂货的经历。收到送货时感觉包装效率极低——一个箱子里只装了两个西红柿。不禁让人怀疑：真的有必要这样包装吗？

How stable is the relationship between square footage of boxes and the actual goods sold in boxes? The reason I asked this is I remember the first several times that I ordered groceries, for example, online. And I would get these deliveries, was like, this seems really inefficiently packed. You get a box and there's two tomatoes in there. It's like, did they really need to just have this?

这是个典型例子

Is a classic example

但我想亚马逊也不喜欢这种情况。他们应该一直在优化箱体容量，比如当你购买Kindle Fire的新遥控器时，不会用大箱子配送。他们是否在持续提升箱内立方英尺空间的使用效率？

of But I imagine that Amazon doesn't love this either. I imagine they're always trying to optimize for box capacity such that you buy a new remote control for your Kindle Fire or whatever. It doesn't come in a big box. Is their progress always being made on the efficient use of the cubic footage space within these boxes?

没错。我们首先讨论两个重点：第一是消费者定位，第二是尺寸优化。

Yes. All right. So let's talk about two things first. First, we're going to talk about who the consumer is. And second, we'll talk about rightsizing.

首先，当我们考虑消费者时，沃尔玛、亚马逊、家得宝这些才是目标客户。大部分纸箱是为他们而非个人用户生产的。事实上——

So first, when we think about consumers, Walmart's targets, Amazon, Home Depot, they are consumers. And the majority of boxes that are made are intended for them, not for us. In fact

所以它们才叫大卖场啊。

That's why they call them big box stores.

正是如此。这点我们稍后可以深入讨论。但这些旧纸箱实际上存在二级市场，我们回收的物料中约80%来自那些商店而非居民门口。因此考虑消费者时，必须优先关注大型商超，他们才是这些纸箱的主要消耗者。

Right. Right. So we can get into this later. But this old box actually has its own aftermarket in which probably 80% of the stuff that we recover comes from those stores, not from our doorsteps. So when we think about consumers, we really need to think about the big stores first, because that's who the main consumers of these boxes are.

因此，当我们思考当前观察到的变化时，如果发现这些商店出现显著变化，我们可能会考虑到诸如缩水式通胀（shrinkflation）或企业改变产品尺寸后不得不调整包装箱尺寸的情况。所以我认为虽然这个概念很重要，但相比我们家庭收到的包裹，其重要性可能较低。以亚马逊为例——我们来谈谈传统电子商务，或者我想开始称之为'从购物车到纸箱'的商业模式。哦，非常贴切。

And so, when you think about the changes that we're seeing, if we're seeing significant changes at those stores, we may be thinking about things like shrinkflation or companies altering the size of their products and then having to alter the size of the boxes that hold them. So I think while it's an important idea, it's probably less significant than what we get at our homes. And Amazon, for instance. Let's talk about traditional ecommerce, or I think I may start referring to this as cart to carton commerce. Oh, very Yeah.

因为如今的电子商务（或有些人称之为数字销售）还可能包括优食（Uber Eats）或Instacart这类服务，也涵盖线上下单、门店自提的模式。所以'从购物车到纸箱'的商业概念或许更...是的，我喜欢这个说法。是更精准的表述方式，或者像...不知道，也许你能想出个新术语。

Because ecommerce today, or digital sales, as some people talk about it, can also include things like Uber Eats or Instacart. It could also include a buy online, pick up at the store. So a cart to cart in commerce might be a Yeah. I like that. Better better way to think about it, or like a, I don't know, maybe you can come up with a new term.

总之我会考虑一下的。

Anyway I'll think about it.

根据我们的最佳估算，亚马逊约占美国所有纸箱产量的8%（至少2024年如此）。从许多从事传统电子商务或'从购物车到纸箱'业务的企业中，我们观察到尺寸优化趋势。所以你可能收到过看起来有点奇怪的亚马逊箱子——轻质再生纸材质，

So Amazon, from our best guesses, represents about 8% of all of the boxes made in The US, at least in 2024. And what we're seeing from a lot of these companies who do that kind of traditional e commerce or the cart to carton, we're seeing a right sizing. So you may have gotten an Amazon box that looks a little bit weird. Right? It it's lightweight, real paper.

采用自折叠设计，带有拉链式开口，完全不同于桌上那个胶带封箱的常规开槽纸箱。你可能见过这种箱子，或者收到过纸质邮寄袋——亚马逊确实在邮寄袋和包装技术领域开创了先河。

It's folded in on itself. It's got that zipper pull on it, and it just doesn't quite look like this box on the table that's been taped up, and it's a a regular slotted carton. You may have seen that. Or you may have gotten a paper mailer, and Amazon has really been forging the way in mailers and and packaging technology.

等等，什么是纸质邮寄袋？

Wait. What's a paper mailer?

纸质邮寄袋就是...哦...用纸制成的袋子。

A paper mailer is a a bag Oh. That is made from paper.

哦，我只在亚马逊上买过那种塑料的。我不记得收到过...等等，不对，我可能确实收到过里面有气泡膜的那种。

Oh, I've only ever gotten the plastic ones of those from Amazon. I don't think I've gotten a oh, wait. No. I probably have with the bubble wrap inside.

有些现在连气泡膜都没有了。

Some of them don't even have bubble wrap anymore.

我还没收到过那种。好吧。但这让我想到，如果我在亚马逊或沃尔玛这类公司的采购部门工作，决定业务实际需要什么箱子时需要考虑哪些因素？

I haven't gotten one of those. Okay. But this reminds me, if I am working in the procurement department of an Amazon or, I don't know, a Walmart or someone like that, what are the factors that go into me deciding what boxes I actually want for the business?

这取决于你的产品特性。每个产品都有其规格和所需包装类型。如果你生产小零件，你会决定每个箱子装多少件，这需要考虑重量、易碎性以及可能需要哪些内部包装材料。

That's gonna be a reflection of what your product is. And every product has its own specification or what kind of box it needs. So if you're making a widget, you will determine how many of those widgets are gonna go into a box, and that's gonna be a function of its weight and fragility and what kind of other internal packaging you might need.

让我换个方式问。为什么亚马逊——至少历史上——似乎喜欢用大箱子？

Let me ask this question in a different way. Why does Amazon, at least historically, seem to like big boxes?

嗯，我不确定能否代表亚马逊回答这个问题，但可能取决于包装人员在包装台的操作，以及他们现有箱子的库存情况。我见过这些操作现场：就是个小包装台，头顶有些货架放着压平的纸箱。

Well, I don't know that I can answer for Amazon on that one, but it does seem to be maybe at the discretion of people who are packaging, at their packing stations and what their available inventory of boxes might be like. I've seen some of these things in action. It's a pack it's just a small packaging desk of sorts with some overhead bins that have knocked down flat boxes in them.

这肯定是个有趣的工程问题。作为终端消费者，我可能会说看这箱子空间利用多低效——这么大箱子就装了个小遥控器。但另一方面，优化可能发生在包装员只有四种箱子可选的情况下。如果选择更多，或许能实现更高效的空间利用率，但那又会占用更多仓储空间，降低整体效率。这里面可能涉及各种我们消费者根本想不到的算法。

This must be an interesting sort of engineering problem because I might, the end consumer level, say, look at this inefficient use of box space. I got a box and all has a little remote control. On the other hand, maybe the optimization occurred because the packer has four boxes to choose from. And if they had more choices, maybe they could have had a more efficient space to good ratio, but then that would have taken up more warehouse space and made that whole process less efficient. There's probably all kinds of algorithms that I'm not even thinking about as the end consumer here.

有很多算法。当你考虑传统电子商务中的箱子和包装时，它们不仅要从包装角度、定价位置进行优化，更重要的是从运输立方体效率出发。对吧？所以我们必须想到亚马逊要处理所有这些订单，或者Chewy，或者其他任何电商平台。它们负责处理订单。

There are lots of algorithms. And when you think about boxes and packaging in traditional e commerce, they are looking to optimize not just from a packaging standpoint, from a pricing position, but really from a cube in the shipments. Right? So we have to think that Amazon's going to process all these orders, or Chewy, or whatever the e commerce platform is. They process the orders.

这些订单会经过它们的配送中心。如果你是亚马逊，你拥有自己的卡车。你会希望确保能在每辆卡车上装载尽可能多的货物。

They're going to go through their distribution centers. And if you're Amazon, you have your own trucks. You wanna make sure that you can put as many of those things on a truck as possible.

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好的。创造力和组织思路并不总是相辅相成，但Canva将它们无缝结合，并增添了许多价值。情况是这样的：你有一个愿景。比如说，一个很棒的报告创意。

Okay. Creativity and organizing ideas don't always go together, but Canva brings them together seamlessly, and it adds so much. It's like this. You've got a vision. Great idea for, let's say, a presentation.

你脑海中的报告是12分满分（10分制）。你和老板获得全场起立鼓掌。人人加薪。但将脑海中的报告转化为实际演示文件，则完全是另一回事。涉及二十多个复杂应用程序，时间不足，而且说实话，你并不完全清楚该怎么做。

The presentation in your head is a 12 out of 10. Standing ovations for you and your boss. Raises all around. But turning the presentation in your mind into an actual presentation, something else entirely. There are, two dozen complicated apps involved, not enough time, and to be honest, you don't really know what you're doing.

使用Canva，你可以在一个应用中将所有想法集中在一处。利用AI加速创作过程，并邀请他人协作，因为团队合作让团队运作更高效——我可能说反了。重点是，你的报告会看起来很出色。你也会显得很专业。

With Canva, you can bring all your ideas together in one place with one app. Use AI to speed things up and bring other people in to help because teamwork makes the team work. I might have gotten that wrong. Point is, your presentation will look great. You'll look great.

每个人都会看起来很棒。这不正是你所追求的吗？95%的财富500强公司使用Canva是有原因的。Canva让你能够将想法以思考的速度变为现实。让想象力在canva.com上发挥作用。

Everybody will look great. And isn't that what you're after? There's a reason 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva. Canva lets you bring your ideas to life as fast as you can think of them. Put imagination to work at canva.com.

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特别是最近我们在讨论更广泛的宏观经济数据时，很多人质疑总量数据在多大程度上遗漏了部分真相。具体来说，在当前很多商业领域，每当有零售业CEO发言时，他们都会说：情况还算稳定，但这主要是由高端消费驱动的。高端消费支撑着市场，中产阶级消费者受到挤压，低收入群体也在承受压力，各种情况都有。当我们谈论出货的箱体平方英尺时，我们是在讨论总量数据。

When we're talking about broader macroeconomic data these days in particular, there are a lot of questions about the degree to which the aggregates are missing part of the story. Specifically in a lot of commerce these days, anytime there's some retail CEO, they're like, Things are holding up well, but it's really being driven by the high end. The high end is keeping it afloat. The middle consumer is getting squeezed, lower income is getting squeezed, all kinds of things. We're talking in aggregates when you talk about box square footage having been shipped.

但是否有更细粒度的数据，比如纸板质量等方面，可以告诉我们经济中哪些部分仍然强劲，即使整体数据在下降。

But is there more granular data that one could look at in terms of the quality of cardboard, etcetera, that can tell us different things about what's strong within the economy, even if the big numbers are declining.

那些高档包装盒。

The fancy boxes.

高档包装盒，其实不是这样。我们行业面临的一个问题是缺乏优质数据。作为在这个行业工作过并提供过数据的人，我知道这是一项几乎没人会仔细核对的苦差事。比如你开发了一个新客户，对吧？然后你提交这个新客户的所有文书材料。

The fancy boxes, not really. So one of the problems that our industry faces is that we don't have great data. Having worked in the industry and having provided that data, it's a chore that no one really double checks. So, you've brought on a new customer, right? And you're submitting all your paperwork for the new customer.

其中一项是他们的NAICS代码分类，即北美行业代码。但没人会去核实这是否正确，对吧？你基本上就是凭感觉选一个。你会查一下，看看他们是否可能在商务部或类似机构备案过，仅此而已。所以，粒度数据充其量是模糊的，但它具有洞察力且一致，因为更换供应商是有成本的。

One of those things is a classification of their NAICS code, the North American industry code. Well, no one ever checks to make sure that's proper, right? You just kind of wing it. You look it up and see if they've maybe followed it with the Secretary of Commerce or something like that, and that's it. So the granular data is murky at best, but it is insightful and it is consistent because there is a cost to changing your supplier.

就像我们确实看到这种情况发生。对于非常大的大客户来说，他们不喜欢更换。你们通常有持续多年、很多年的长期合作关系。你们有很多SKU。如果你是一家真正的大公司，并且在各地都有运营设施，你就不想经历这个过程。

Like we do see it happen. And for very big box customers, they don't like changing. You have a long standing relationship, typically many, many years. You have lots of SKUs. And if you're a really big company and you have operating facilities all over the place, you don't want to go through that.

因此，数据虽然模糊，但可能是一致的。我们确实看到了一些这样的情况，例如在2024年，我们看到加工食品下降了约3.7%。所以，如果将其与饮料结合起来，纸箱使用量下降了略高于4%。那么，我们如何描述这一点？那些公司的业务量是否也出现了类似的下降？

So the data, while murky, might be consistent. And we do see some of those things like in 2024, for instance, we saw that manufactured food fell like by 3.7. So if you combine that with beverage, it was a little over of a 4% decline in box usage. Now, how do we describe that? Did those companies see similar falls in their volume?

我认为数据可能表明这非常接近。瓦楞纸包装确实有一些已知的权衡。其中之一是可回收塑料容器，目前主要被推向农产品领域。沃尔玛，特别是Sprouts Market，一直在推动其部分供应商采用可回收塑料容器作为一种可行选择。这减少了浪费。

I think I think the data would suggest that that's probably very close. Corrugated packaging does have some known trade offs. One of those things is a returnable plastic container that is mainly being pushed right now towards produce. Walmart, specifically Sprouts Market, have been pushing some of their people to adopt returnable plastic containers as a viable option. It reduces waste.

他们正在围绕这些东西建立供应链来帮助运输。所以，这是我们看到的削减纸箱消费的因素之一。我们还不知道这是否是件大事，但它确实存在并且是一个趋势。我们看到的另一件事是向更大规格纸箱的转变，有些尺寸和一个托盘一样大。你知道，48英寸长，40英寸宽，也许40英寸高。

They're building supply chains around these things to help carry them around. So that is one of the things that we've seen kind of cut into box consumption. We don't know that it's a big thing yet, but it is out there and it is a thing. The other thing that we've seen is a movement to larger format boxes, some that are the size of a pallet. You know, 48 inches long, 40 inches wide, and maybe 40 inches tall.

给你年幼的孩子一个很棒的游戏屋。

A great playhouse for your young kids.

我记得用巨大的纸箱做过那样的事，把它们变成房子。为什么现在还有人投资这个领域？因为当你描述供应严重过剩，而需求又在下降的事实时，也许是因为关税，也许如果更多商品在国内制造，情况会开始好转。但似乎大多数趋势都朝着错误的方向发展。这个行业的吸引力究竟在哪里？

I remember doing that with huge boxes, turning them into houses. Why would anyone invest in this space currently? Because when you describe this enormous glut in supply and then the fact that demand is going down, maybe it's because of the tariffs, maybe if the manufacturing more goods, it'll domestically, it'll start to pick up again. But it seems like most of the lines are kind of trending in the wrong way. What exactly is, like, the allure of this industry?

这是个很好的问题。我希望我知道答案。除了他们确实有一直在支付且持续支付的分红外。

That's a great question. I wish I knew the answer. Other than they do have dividends that they have been been paying and consistently paying.

所以它被认为是一种相当稳定的股息。

So it's considered like a a fairly, like, stable dividend.

非常稳定的股息。我认为这是一个相当安全的投资。我们看到它确实非常受欢迎。从终端角度来看，我经常收到彭博客户的咨询。他们想弄清楚这是否仍然是一个好的投资。

Very stable dividend. I think it's a pretty safe investment. We do see mean, it's very popular. From from a terminal standpoint, I get Bloomberg clients that reach out all the time. They're looking to figure out if this is still a good investment.

虽然我们不提供买卖持有建议，但我们仍然看到这些领域有很多流量。

While we don't do buy sell hold recommendations, we still see a lot of traffic in these in these lanes.

这是否只取决于你公司的实际规模以及你在市场中的定价权有多大？

Does it just depend on how big your company actually is and how much pricing power you have in the market?

嗯，看，我认为这是个误区。我认为实际上并不存在定价权。如果有定价权，我们就不会看到当今世界上正在发生的一些行动。我的意思是，有些工厂生产非常优质的纸张。它的性能非常非常好。

Well, see, I think that's a myth. Think I think there really isn't pricing power. If there were pricing power, we wouldn't see some of the actions that we're seeing in the in the world today. And what I mean by that is there are some mills that make a really robust paper. It performs really, really well.

这些纸张具有科学特性，使其与其他任何产品都不同。然而它们并没有获得应有的溢价，因为有替代品。这就像想要一辆法拉利却只能选择野马。两者都很棒。但一个显然有它的魅力，另一个也有它的客户群。

And there are scientific properties to that paper that set it apart from anything else. And yet they aren't getting the premium that they should be getting because there is an alternative. And it's it's like wanting a Ferrari and settling for a Mustang. They're both great. Like, but one obviously has the allure, and one has its client base too.

当你能买到一辆靠谱的野马时，就不会总想着买法拉利了。

And when you can buy a Mustang and it works, you're not always gonna wanna buy that Ferrari.

其实这正好引向我想问的。首先，美国最大的包装展览会叫什么？就是那种集中展示的盛会。

Well, actually, this sort of gets me to where I want to go. First of all, what would be the name of the biggest box or packaging expo in The United States? Like, that gets it together somewhere.

对。用行业术语来说，包装展就是Pack Expo。

Yeah. In in big round terms for packaging, pack expo.

在哪里举办？拉斯维加斯吗？

Where's that? Vegas?

今年是在拉斯维加斯举办。

This gonna be in Vegas this this year.

或许哪天我们可以去看看。好了，抛开大家都关心的产量和价格趋势不谈，现在Pack Expo上会讨论哪些热门话题？

Maybe we'll go one day. Alright. So setting aside the volume and pricing trends, we take for granted everyone is curious about, what would be the hot topics right now that would be discussed at Pack Expo?

哦，可持续发展长期以来都是重要议题，这与延伸生产者责任法规相呼应。这是各州推动的倡议，旨在将回收责任从居民转移给产生废弃物的企业。

Oh, sustainability has been a really big topic for a long time, and it's matched with extended producer responsibility laws. So this is a state by state initiative to basically shift the burden of recycling away from its residents and onto the companies who are creating the waste.

这具体是如何运作的？

How does that work exactly?

目前有几个州已经通过了相关立法。俄勒冈州是第一个真正实施这项政策的州。他们制定了收费标准，测量了本州每月或每年产生的垃圾量，并为每种可回收物设定了每磅几美元或几美分的分配金额。

So right now we have a handful of states who've actually passed legislation. Oregon's the first one that is really kind of enacting this. And they've set up a fee schedule. They've measured how much waste their state produces in a month or in a year. And they've allocated a certain number of dollars per pound or cents per pound for each one of those commodities.

如果你向该州销售商品，他们实际上会对你运入该州的废弃物征收费用，你必须向他们支付这笔钱。

And if you're selling something into the state, they are essentially placing a fee on the waste that you're sending to their state, and you have to pay a check to them.

你能多谈谈回收的经济学吗？因为我确实把很多用过的纸板放进正确的回收箱里了。

Can you talk a little bit more about the economics of recycling? Because I put a lot of the cardboard I use into the proper bin.

回收的经济学。

The economics of recycling.

但我总是——这其实适用于所有回收行为——当我想到实际需要投入的人力...当我想到A，人们尽职的程度...我可能比一般人更认真对待正确分类投放，但我知道自己并不完美。当我考虑到尽职程度、效率低下、人力成本等等所有这些因素时，请告诉我们：回收到底什么时候是真正经济的？什么时候又只是人们在进行某种无实际意义的跟风行为？

But like I'm always And this goes with any recycling really, which is that when I think about the labor that actually When I think about A, the degree of diligence that people And I would say I'm probably higher than average diligence about proper bin allocation, but I know I'm not perfect. But when I think about the degree of diligence and the inefficiency and then the labor and all of this stuff, and then talk to us, when is it actually economical and when is it just some sort of cargo cult type behavior that people engage in where there's no real purpose?

大多数情况下，回收费用是通过税收支付的。比如我住的街道就不是这样，我必须每季度支付25美元才能使用回收箱。不算太糟，但需要自费。大体经济账是这样的：收集和处理可回收材料的成本大约在每吨400美元到700美元之间。

Well, most of the time, the recycling fees are paid by taxes. My street, for instance, that was not the case, and I had to pay $25 a quarter for a bin. Not not terrible, but I had to pay for it. The economics in big round numbers work like this. It costs anywhere from about $400 a ton upwards to $700 a ton to go out and do the collections and processing for recovered materials.

所有这些流程。所以你会看到卡车来收走你的可回收物。它们会被运往一个叫做MRF的设施，即市政回收设施。在那里进行处理，他们有多条分拣线来分类塑料、金属、纸张等所有这些东西。然后他们生产出压块。

All of that stuff. So you'll see a truck come and pick up your recyclables. It goes to a facility called a MRF, a municipal recovery facility. And there it's processed, and they have lots of lines that sort things out, plastics and metals and papers and all of that stuff. And then they produce bales.

也就是这些材料被压缩成立方体，然后出售。如果我们用一个大概的数字，比如每吨500美元，那么从MRF出来的净吨位实际市场价值只有每吨100到140美元。是的。

So a compact cube of sorts of these materials, and then they get sold. So if we were to just use a big round number and say $500 a ton, the net ton that comes out of the MRF only has a street value between a 100 to a $140 a ton. Yeah.

我没听错吧？这听起来太糟糕了。

Am I hearing that right? That sounds terrible.

确实很糟糕。最疯狂的是，瓦楞纸箱才是让家庭回收得以运作的关键，因为从数据来看——这是我几年前质疑过的一点——我们最好的数据显示，美国大约回收了66%的瓦楞纸箱。这个数字还算不错。行业过去常说93%的纸箱被回收了，那根本不可能。

That's terrible. And the craziest thing is the corrugated box is what really makes household recycling even work because we know from from data, and this is something we I challenged several years ago, our best data says that we recycle about 66% of the corrugated boxes in The US. It's a pretty good number. The industry used to say 93% of boxes got recycled. There's no way that's possible.

但我们没有数据证明它低于66%。不过我们确实有一套方法来估算这个数字，这个方法实际上得到了国家可再生能源实验室的支持。你可能也能挑出他们的一些问题。但重点是，我们知道大约60%多的纸箱被回收了，而且我们知道它们有一个非常活跃的二手市场。

But we don't have the data to say it's lower than 66%. But we do have a methodology that we use to kind of get there. It was actually supported by the National Renewable Energy Lab. You can probably shoot some holes in some of their stuff too. But big point is we know that about 60 some percent of these get recycled, and we know they have a very robust aftermarket.

我们每年处理大约3500万吨旧瓦楞纸箱。其中大约三分之一会出口到海外。很多其他国家想要我们这里生产的原生纤维。

We process about 35,000,000 tons of old corrugated cartons almost every year. About a third of them are gonna go overseas. There are a lot of other countries that want the virgin fiber that we produce here.

既然我们已经揭示了回收的令人沮丧的真相，让我问一个稍微积极点的问题：在纸箱制造方面，有没有什么很酷的技术发展？

Now that we've revealed the depressing truth about recycling, let me ask a slightly more positive question, which is, have there been any cool technological developments when it comes to box making?

他们不断为纸箱申请专利，制造新设备以提高生产效率，改进造纸工艺。我们正努力制造更轻但更坚固的纸张。说到这里，让我们暂时回到EPR法规——这些费用是基于消费品的重量计算的。如果企业能采购更轻质的材料，他们的费用就会降低。

They are constantly patenting boxes, making new equipment to make them faster, improving the the way we make the paper. We're trying to make stronger paper that's lighter in weight. So if you think about some of these, we'll go back to the EPR laws for a second. Those fees are based on the weight of what you're consuming. If the companies can buy a lighter weight material, then their fees go down.

没错。

Right.

因此现在行业正推动纸张轻量化研究，在保持强度的同时减轻重量。这些创新在未来五到十年内将会初见成效。

So there is a push now to see if we can lightweight the paper, make it as strong, but with less weight. So these are things that we're going to see really take some shape in the next five to ten years.

很高兴您提到出口问题。我在国外旅行时注意到，即使是较富裕国家，包装材料质量也明显不如美国，在贫困国家尤其明显。比如在美国超市买的矿泉水瓶坚固挺括，而几年前我在危地马拉和墨西哥超市买的矿泉水瓶则软塌易皱，明显是耐用性较差的塑料。

I'm glad you mentioned export. One of the things that I've noticed whenever I am traveling abroad, even to fairly rich countries, but I definitely notice it when I'm in poorer countries, is that the quality of packaging materials is distinctly worse than here. The example that I often notice is you buy a bottle of water in a US grocery store, it's nice, it's sturdy, it holds its form very well. You buy a bottle of water at say a grocery store in Guatemala where I was a couple years ago in Mexico, it's crinkly, it smashes over easily. You could tell that it's a less durable plastic.

那么类似地，如果我们观察危地马拉等发展中国家的纸箱流通，是否会发现其纸板质量与这里的有显著差异？

Is there similar If we were to look at the cardboard boxes running through a developing economy such as Guatemala, etcetera, would we see that this is noticeably different than the quality of cardboard that we're seeing here?

这实际上取决于技术标准的要求。关键在於制箱原料——美国历来是原生牛皮挂面纸板的生产国，通过伐木、碎木、制浆工序生产全新原生纸。但这种模式正在衰退和逆转。

It really depends on what the technical term is going be furnished. Okay. So what are you using to make the boxes? The US has historically been a maker of virgin kraft linerboard, meaning they cut down trees, they chip the trees, they turn those chips into new virgin paper. That's actually been declining and reversing.

我们看到越来越多再生纸产能投入使用。由于美国始终保有优质原生纸浆基础，这里的再生纸张质量一直很好。而其他国家可能没有南方黄松等资源，他们要么采购我们的OCC（旧瓦楞纸箱），要么使用自产的OCC原料。

We've seen more and more recycled capacity come online. And because we've still had a very good virgin base, the recycled paper here in The US has been very good. Now, in other countries, they may not have southern yellow pine, so they are buying our OCC or they're using their own OCC. OCC's old corrugated cartons.

所以

So

他们只是要把现有的材料重新打浆。如果他们一开始用的是低质量的纸箱，那么最终得到的纸张质量也会较低。所以有时候他们确实会生产出较低等级的纸张。在世界其他地区，他们对这类纸张实际上有不同的定义，因此会有不同的等级划分。

they're just going to repulp the stuff that they have. And if they start with a low quality box, then they're going to get a low quality paper on the back end. And so sometimes they are going to have a lower grade paper. And in other areas of the world, they actually have different definitions for that kind of paper. So they would have different grades of it.

所以，没错，有时候你会得到低等级的纸张，因为它是大宗商品，但也能用。

And so, yeah, sometimes you get the low grade paper because it's a commodity, and then it'll work.

那么我最后还有一个问题来做个总结。啊，这是个包装行业的双关语。好吧，言归正传，总结一下，你对下半年纸箱运输量有什么预测？

So I just have one more question just to wrap it all up. Ah, that's a packaging joke. Okay. Wrapping it all up, summarizing, what's your prediction for the second half of the year in terms of box shipments?

我们认为形势仍然会非常严峻。全年来看，我们预测可能会下降2.5%，甚至高达3%。这真的取决于事态发展。很大程度上这源于白宫出台的关税和政策。所以实际上取决于这些公司对未来有多少信心。

We think they're still going to be very challenged. Full year, we're saying they're probably going be down two and a half percent, maybe as high as 3%. It really depends on what happens. A lot of this is stemming from tariffs and policy coming out of the White House. So it really depends on how much confidence some of these companies have as they look forward.

而且我们已经看到进入美国的集装箱数量——比如货船——是提前集中到港的。对吧？现在关税政策似乎已经落地又好像没完全落地，进口量已经开始逐渐减少。后续发展会非常值得关注。或者换个角度想，大多数美国人有钱时就买东西，没钱时就刷信用卡。

And we've seen the the number of containers coming into The US like the cargo ships was front loaded. Right? And now that the tariffs are kind of here or maybe they're not here, they've been kind of tapering off a bit. It will be very curious to see what happens. But to maybe think about it another way, most Americans buy stuff when they have money, and when they don't have money, they put it on credit cards.

而我们现在看到信用卡债务创下历史新高。这对人们的消费意愿来说不是个好兆头。所以我们并不认为前景非常乐观，即便是对假日季也是如此。美国人会花钱吗？大概会的。

And we're seeing a record amount of credit card debt. And that's not a great sign for if people are going to spend money. So we don't really think that this is a really hot outlook for even the for the holidays. Are Americans gonna spend money? Probably.

它会和往年看起来完全一样吗？可能不会。

Is it gonna look exactly like it did in prior years? Probably not.

好的。瑞安·福克斯，彭博资讯的容器与包装分析师。非常感谢你。

Alright. Ryan Fox, containers and packaging analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Thank you so much.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

乔，我学到了很多关于箱子的知识。

Joe, I learned a lot about boxes.

那家伙真棒。

That guy was great.

是的。我喜欢瑞安。你知道，我真的很喜欢瑞安和像他这样的人的一点是，他们能随口报出所有数据。

Yeah. I love Ryan. You know, one thing I really like about Ryan and people like that is when they trot out all the numbers off the top of their head.

是的。

Yeah.

那确实令人印象深刻。他没有看任何笔记，而且对几乎所有问题都有答案。

That was really impressive. That was no notes, and he had answers for pretty much everything.

如果有人问我他们如何衡量纸箱运输量，我可能会猜是立方英尺而不是平方英尺。但确实，会有所有这些覆盖全球的内容。是的，这挺酷的。

If someone had asked me how I thought they would measure box shipments, I might have guessed cubic feet rather than square feet. But yes, would have all this covering the world stuff. Yeah, it was pretty cool.

是的。而且我认为关于纸箱作为宏观经济指标的实际效用问题仍然存在，因为我们确实有过去两个月的零售销售数据可用。尽管纸箱运输量下降，但这些数据表现得相当有韧性，相当强劲。

Yeah. And I guess the question over how useful a macroeconomic indicator boxes actually are, it still kind of lingers because we did have retail sales data for the past two months that are available. That came in pretty resilient, pretty strong despite the decline in box shipments.

他用了什么术语？商业中的购物车到购物车。我真的很喜欢这个说法，因为这是对的，对吧？电子商务现在包含了这么多不同的东西？所以有这种经典的电子商务，你上网站买东西，然后东西装在箱子里送来，但当然还有线上下单门店提货，这是一种略有不同的变体，或者你可能收到用纸板箱送来的食物等等。

What was the term he used? Cart to cart in commerce. I really liked that because it's true, right? What is e commerce that now encompasses so many different things? So there is this classic e commerce where you go on a website and you buy a thing and it comes in a box, but then there's of course buy and you pick up at the store and that's a slightly different variation or maybe you get food delivered in a cardboard box, etcetera.

所以我喜欢这个想法，好吧，电子商务如此广泛，如果我们想要获得这些纸箱使用案例中某些类似的发展轨迹，我们可能需要进行更细粒度的分析。

So I like the idea of, okay, e commerce is so broad that if we want to have like for like trajectories of some of these used cases for cardboard boxes, we have to maybe get a little bit more granular.

嗯，这让我想起，我认为包装行业仍然被严重低估的一点是它对更广泛通胀的影响有多大。

Well, reminds me actually, I think one thing that's still really underappreciated about the packaging industry is how much it feeds into broader inflation.

是的。是的。

Yes. Yes.

我记得一些经济学家在后疫情时代提出过这一点。但有趣的是现在，尽管集装箱运输量在下降，价格似乎仍然具有粘性甚至还在上涨。这对通胀意味着什么？

And this is something I I remember some economists bringing this up during the post pandemic era. But the interesting thing is now, even though box shipments are going down, prices still seem to be kind of sticky and even going up. So what does that mean for inflation?

我经常思考这个问题，有时候可能有点形而上学，但当你在杂货店买东西时，比如说买一个牛油果，你买的到底是什么？因为，好吧，有一个你可以切开的实体牛油果，但你还购买了它在冷藏空间里度过的时间。你在向那些冷藏设备的所有者支付租金。还有运输。你购买的是运输服务，等等。

I always think about this, and sometimes it maybe gets a little metaphysical, but when you buy a thing in a grocery store, let's say you buy an avocado, what are you buying when you buy the avocado? Because, okay, there's the physical avocado that you might cut open, but then you're buying the time it's spent in a refrigerated space. You're paying rent to those owners of refrigeration. Transportation. You're buying the transportation, etcetera.

有趣的是思考你购买的任何商品，比如生菜等等。生菜本身值多少？甚至'生菜'这个概念意味着什么，因为有人工投入了种植生菜的过程，还有生菜种植的土地等等。所以当你购买某物时你实际购买的是什么，这通常包括包装，但往往根本不清楚它到底是什么，除了是一捆商品和服务的组合。

It's interesting to think about any good that you buy period, ahead of lettuce, etcetera. How little is the lettuce? Whatever even the lettuce means, because there is labor that went into the planting of the lettuce and there is the land of the lettuce, etcetera. So the idea of what are you buying when you're buying something, often that includes packaging, but often it's just never really clear at all what it is except this bundle of goods and services.

我买的是整个经济的一角。

I'm buying an entire slice of the economy.

你确实就是。

You literally are.

好吧。既然我们已经进入了关于箱子的形而上学讨论，我们就此打住吧？

Okay. Now that we've gotten into a metaphysical discussion about boxes, shall we leave it there?

就到此为止吧。

Let's leave it there.

这是《All Thoughts播客》的又一期节目。我是Tracy Allaway。你可以在Tracy Allaway关注我。

This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. You can follow me at Tracy Allaway.

我是Joe Wiesenthal。你可以在The Stalwart关注我。查看Ryan在彭博资讯的内容，那里有很多精彩内容。关注我们的制作人：Carmen Rodriguez在Carmen Armen、O'Bennett在Dashbot、以及Kale Brooks在Kale Brooks。

And I'm Joe Wiesenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Check out Ryan's stuff at Bloomberg Intelligence. A lot of fascinating stuff there. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armen dash O'Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks.

更多《Odd Lots》内容，请访问bloomberg.com/oddlots。我们有每日通讯和所有节目集数。你可以在我们的Discord社区discord.gg/oddlots全天候讨论这些话题。

For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com/oddlots. We have the daily newsletter and all of our episodes. You can chat about all of these topics twenty four seven in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

如果你喜欢《Odd Lots》，喜欢我们讨论集装箱话题，请在你最喜欢的播客平台上给我们留下好评。记住，如果你是彭博订阅用户，可以完全无广告收听所有节目，只需在Apple Podcasts找到彭博频道并按指引操作即可。感谢收听。

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about boxes, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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立即前往paypalopen.com实现增长。贷款需经批准并在适用地区提供。

Grow today at paypalopen.com. Loans subject to approval in available locations.

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Mint is still $15 a month for premium wireless. And if you haven't made the switch yet, here are 15 reasons why you should. One, it's $15 a month. Two, seriously, it's $15 a month. Three, no big contracts.

四，我在用。五，我妈也在用。你是在耍我吗？就是这么回事吧？

Four, I use it. Five, my mom uses it. Are you are you playing me off? That's what's happening. Right?

好的。试试 mintmobile.com/switch。

Okay. Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch.

需预付45美元购买三个月套餐，相当于每月15美元。新客户优惠仅限前三个月，之后提供全价套餐选项。税费另计。详情见 mintmobile.com。

Upfront payment of $45 for three month plan, $15 per month equivalent required. New customer offer first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com.

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Add a little to your life. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.