伊朗战争正在重塑天然气格局

来自Exactly Right和Adonde Media，这里是《两面人：圣约翰》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is Two Faced, John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您常用的播客平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，其中一个说法是，这将利好美国天然气，我们会向他们出口。

So one of the stories that after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was that, well, this is gonna be a boon to US gas, and we're gonna ship them.

我们向欧洲出口的液化天然气比以前多很多吗？

Are we shipping a lot more LNG to Europe than

吗？

we were?

于是我们回到黄金之路曾是进口终端的阶段。

And so we go back to this phase where Golden Pass was an import terminal.

是的。

Yeah.

然后我们谈到，美国整体的天然气供需大约每天120亿立方英尺。

And then we got to about and so think of US overall gas supply demand is about 120 BCF a day.

几年前，其中10%还是液化天然气出口。

A couple years ago, 10% of that would have been LNG exports.

好的。

Okay.

现在，我们快达到200亿立方英尺了。

Today, we just we're getting close to 20 B.

将达到20%。

It'll be 20%.

哇。

Wow.

所以在未来，到2030年，我们将每天新增数十亿立方英尺的产能。

And so over the next, you know, out to 2030, we'll just be adding multiple BCF a day.

因此，这是美国增长最快的领域。

And so it is the fastest growing part of U.

S。

S.

天然气需求。

Gas demand.

正如你提到的，出口终端存在一些争议，就在不久之前，我们还面临着天然气过剩的问题。

One of the controversies with export terminals, as you mentioned, not that long ago, we were absolutely swimming in free gas.

当时人们担心，如果开始出口天然气，国内价格会上涨，因为那样就不再有供过于求的情况了。

And there was this concern that, well, if you start exporting it, it raises the domestic price because then you don't have these gluts anymore.

LNG出口的增加是否显著推高了国内天然气消费的价格？

Has the rise of LNG exports meaningfully raised the price of domestic gas consumption?

但愿如此。

I wish.

那是勘探与生产投资者的期望。

That's E and P investor.

这是所有勘探与生产投资者的梦想。

That's the dream of all E and P investors.

是的。

Yeah.

我们坐在这里，你知道的，正进入亨利港3美元的淡季。

We're sitting here, you know, entering the shoulder season in Henry Hub's $3.

它曾涨到5美元。

It got to 5.

在冬季需求最高的时候，它涨到了6美元。

It got to 6 during the winter where the seasonal demand was the highest.

没有强有力的证据表明，额外增加的10%到20%的需求缺口改变了价格。

There is no strong evidence that that extra 10 going to 20% of the demand wedge has changed price.

对吧？

Right?

决定价格的是供需平衡点。

What changes price is where supply equals demand.

到目前为止，供应方一直愿意以每立方米3.50美元的价格，向市场提供世界所需的所有天然气，包括美国的需求。

And up until now, the supply side has been perfectly willing to hand the market as much gas as the world wants, as The US wants at three fifty.

我认为这种情况已经改变了。

I think we think that's changed.

我觉得这种情况已经变了。

I think that's changed.

我认为，归根结底，尤其是在页岩油方面，我们正走向一个五年到十年后页岩油库存将非常紧张的世界。

I think, you know, ultimately, certainly on shale oil, we're approaching a world where oil your shale oil inventory five to ten years from now looks pretty lean.

你开始看到石油和天然气公司思考：在页岩时代之后，我们该怎么办？

You're starting to see oil and gas companies say, well, what do we do in a post shale world?

页岩油时代？

Shale oil world?

我们能做些什么？

What can we do?

我们可以走向国际市场。

We can go international.

对吧？

Right?

所以你可以去中东。

So you've got you can go to The Middle East.

而且毫无疑问，那里的人们正在寻找页岩油或常规石油，比如今天的肖天然气田。

And certainly, are people there looking for shale oil and or conventional oil, like the Shaw Gas field today.

人们正在关注并购。

People are looking at M and A.

我会直接收购我的合作伙伴。

I'll just acquire my partners.

有些人正在关注天然气。

Some people are looking at gas.

但确实，人们普遍意识到这始终是一种有限的资源。

But yeah, there is a sense that it's always been a finite resource.

它曾经是一种不断增长的资源，而且每年的学习曲线都在降低成本。

It had been a growing resource and one where this learning curve had taken cost out every year.

你知道，这一章已经过去了。

You know, that chapter has kind of passed.

而现在，如果你的规划周期是五到十年，展望五到十年后，你就必须设法补充这些资源。

And now it's a world if you're in a planning cycle of five to ten years and you look out five to ten years, you got to go replace that stuff.

天然气的需求弹性如何？

How elastic is demand for something like nat gas?

因为我通常认为，对于住在东北地区的人来说，天然气是每年必须购买的东西，除非你真的特别擅长劈柴之类的。

Because I'm used to thinking about it as someone with a house in the Northeast as something that I have to buy every year unless I actually get really good at chopping firewood or something like that.

但我想象一定存在某种边际需求，它实际上取决于价格。

But I imagine there must be some marginal source of demand that actually depends on the price.

所以天然气的用途之一是发电，因此存在替代性。

So there's the demand for that which gas gives you, which is electricity, and so there's substitution.

所以有一件事值得关注，那就是暗地里的变化。

So one thing to watch is bubbling behind the scenes.

全球动力煤价格已经开始飙升。

Global thermal coal prices are starting to take off.

今年迄今已经上涨了30%。

They're up 30% year to date.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时发生了什么？

What happened when Russia invaded Ukraine?

欧洲买下了他们能拿到的每一个液化天然气货轮，把所有天然气都运进了欧洲。

Europe bought every LNG cargo they could, sucked it all the way into Europe.

亚洲只能无奈表示：我们电力短缺了。

Asia was left saying, well, we're short electricity.

那我们就多烧点煤吧。

Let's go burn some more coal.

多消耗一些吧。

Let's consume more.

所以，在俄乌冲突期间，热煤价格曾达到每吨300美元。

And so thermal coal prices back in Russia Ukraine, $300 a ton.

年初时每吨只有100美元。

Started the year at $100 a ton.

现在涨到了130美元。

We're up to 130.

因此，总会有一些需求被抑制。

And so there's always gonna be there's some demand destruction.

但你知道，人们真的很喜欢电力、空调以及电力带来的各种便利。

But, you know, people really like electricity and air conditioning and the things that it gives.

因此，答案是你肯定会首先寻找煤炭这个明显的选择。

And so the answer is you'll start to look for certainly coal as an obvious place.

最终会有一些需求被抑制，但那是在更高水平上的情况。

And then eventually some demand destruction, but that's at kind of much higher levels.

特蕾西，正如开头提到的，撇开霍尔木兹海峡不谈，你对纯粹的基础设施破坏有什么看法？

Do you have a read on, Tracy, as mentioned in the beginning, setting aside the Strait Of Hormuz, just pure infrastructure destruction.

你对卡塔尔的产能在中长期会受到多大影响有什么判断吗？

Do you have a read on, like, how much sort of Qatari production is gonna be impaired in the medium to long term here?

我们知道液化天然气终端具有一定的恢复惯性，我们在墨西哥湾沿岸对飓风来袭后的应对已有丰富经验。

So we know LNG terminals have a bit of momentum associated with them, and we've got pretty good experience in the Gulf Coast where hurricanes come through.

一旦你的液化天然气设施受损，你可以将其关停，然后再恢复运行。

You bring down your LNG facility and you bring it back up.

墨西哥湾的石油平台也是如此。

Same with oil platforms in the Gulf Of America, Gulf Of Mexico.

飓风来袭时，你会关停，然后再恢复。

Hurricane comes through, you shut in, you come back.

因此，一般来说，油气设施都是按此设计的。

And so in general, oil and gas assets are built.

它们是为检修和恢复而建造的，对吧？

They're built for turnarounds, right?

它们被设计为可以关停后再恢复，尤其是当你能提前规划时。

They're built to go down and come back up, especially when you can plan ahead.

所以你会看到以周为单位的剧烈波动。

So you'll get whipsaws on the order of weeks.

如果这次事件在几周内结束，那么我们将经历大约一个月的混乱，这种混乱会传导到整个经济中。

And so if this is over in weeks, right, we'll kinda have a big wedge of a month of chaos that'll filter through the economy.

是的。

Mhmm.

如果持续数月之久，那就相当于我们谈论的三大LNG供应国——美国、卡塔尔和澳大利亚，它们各自约占全球供应量的五分之一。

And if it goes on for months and months, it's something like if we talk about the big three LNG, The US, Qatar, and Australia, they're kinda each a fifth, a fifth, a fifth of global supply.

因此，大约20%的液化天然气供应会被摧毁。

So something like 20% of the LNG would be knocked out.

这需要大量煤炭来替代，或者需要大量需求被抑制。

And that needs a lot of coal to replace or a lot of demand destruction.

就这一点而言，我认为商品市场尤其习惯于迅速消化中东地区的突发局势。

So just on this point, I think commodity markets in particular are very used to fading Middle East flare ups very quickly.

有什么理由相信这次会不一样吗？

Is there any reason to believe that this time is gonna be different?

你在这一领域拥有数十年的经验。

You're you have, you know, decades of experience in this space.

你觉得这次有什么不同吗？

Does it feel different to you?

作为一名地质学家而非地缘政治专家，我不确定自己是否适合回答这个问题。

As a geologist and not a geopolitician, right, I'm not sure I'm the perfect guest for that answer.

市场传递的信息是我们正在回归常态。

What the market is saying is that we're returning to normal.

对吧？

Right?

所以，是的。

And so and yeah.

那么市场是对的还是错的？

So the is the market right or wrong?

我有几个指标。

I have a few signposts.

我以石油为例。

And so one of the one I'll use oil as an example.

当你把石油价格加上裂解价差时，也就是消费者为柴油、汽油等实际支付的成本。

When you take the price of oil and you add in the crack spread, right, which is effectively what does the consumer pay for diesel, for gasoline, etcetera.

当这一成本达到全球GDP的7%时，世界就会认为太高了，于是停止使用。

When the cost of that gets to 7% of global GDP, right, the world says that's too much and you stop using it.

2022年我们就达到了这个水平。

And that's where we got in 2022.

对吧？

Right?

今天，原油价格大约是每桶120美元，裂解价差大约是60美元。

Today, that'd be about $120 crude, call it about a $60 crack spread.

所以在我的屏幕上，我可以展示给你看，当石油成本占全球GDP的6%时，石油价格从来不会提前一年上涨。

So on my screen, I can show you oil never works a year forward when the cost of oil is 6% of GDP.

所以这基本上就是那个趋势。

And so that's kind of that

如果我们现在处于

If we're we're at at right now,

所以今天我们的价格是100加40。

so today we're 100 plus 40.

裂解价差下降了4个点，这些数据每分钟都在变动。

So crack spreads are down four, and these things are moving by the minute.

但是的，大概就是140。

But yeah, call it about 140.

所以我们还没到那个地步。

So we're not quite there.

但如果我们真的达到每桶180美元的油价加上裂解价差，警报就会响起来。

But there would be an exit alarm ringing if we did get to kind of one eighty crude plus crack spreads.

那时你就会说，我不需要当地缘政治专家。

And then you'd say, I don't need to be a geopolitician.

我只知道，每次这种情况发生，全球经济都会完蛋。

I just know every time this has happened, the global economy has gone blah.

地缘政治纯粹是扯淡，对吧？

That's prime geopolitics is a fake field, isn't it?

所以不是。

So no.

我对这个不太确定。

I I I don't know about that.

但我指的是地质学领域，抱歉。

I but geology field sorry.

我觉得地质学比地缘政治更像一门科学。

If I think geology is more of a science than geopolitics.

对吧？

Right?

任何人都可以假装成地缘政治专家。

Well Anyone can fake being a geopolitical expert.

地质学不会因为你谈论它而改变，但地缘政治一被讨论就会发生变化。

Geology doesn't change when you talk about it, but geopolitics changes when we talk about it.

所以观察者影响了实验本身。

So the experimenter influences the experiment.

你知道吗，我一直在想一件事，就是内德·加兹提到的，其实并不存在一个全球市场。

You know, here's something I've wondered about, you know, again, Ned Gaz, that there's not a global market.

但随着液化天然气的兴起，全球市场是否随着时间的推移变得越来越相关了？

But with the rise of LNG, have global markets become somewhat more correlated over time?

我们是否正朝着天然气全球统一价格的方向发展？

Are we trending towards a global price of gas?

是的。

Yes.

事实上，当你思考沙特阿美在设定其官方销售价格时所扮演的角色时，他们会同时关注东方和西方，查看大西洋盆地和太平洋盆地的石油价格，绝不会让任何人套利获利。

And in fact, if you think of the role that Saudi Aramco plays when they're setting their official selling prices, they will look east and they'll look west, and they'll see what are Atlantic Basin prices for oil and what are Pacific Basin, and they're not gonna let anybody arb them away.

对吧？

Right?

因此，他们某种程度上帮助确立了单一价格法则。

So kind of they help set a law of one price.

卡塔尔人不仅如今占全球LNG供应量的五分之一左右，而且还在持续增长，他们同时服务于两个市场。

The Qataris that not only are sort of a fifth of LNG today but growing, right, serve two markets.

他们可以看向东方，也可以看向西方。

They can look east and they can look west.

所以，过去我们曾有JCAM。

And so the idea would be we used to have JCAM.

这边有一个LNG市场，那边则有TTF。

You'd have an LNG market over here and you'd have TTF over here.

卡塔尔在市场中的作用是说，没人能占我便宜。

The Qataris role in the market is to say, one's gonna arm me.

我们更聪明。

We're smarter.

我们的客户比任何人都多。

We've got more customers than anybody.

他们打算把欧洲的LNG价格与亚洲的价格联系起来。

And they were gonna kind of link the price of LNG in Europe to the one in Asia.

所以我们有了海上天然气的统一价格法则。

So we have kind of the law of one seaborne price of gas.

然后你就可以以此为基准进行竞争。

And then you can compete against that.

那么我可以说，好吧，如果我在这里建一个进口终端，运输成本是这么多，液化和再气化成本是这么多，我就能做这个项目。

Then I can say, okay, if I build an import terminal here and the shipping is this much and the liquefaction regas is this much, I can do this project.

欧洲的俄罗斯LNG现在实际情况如何？

What's actually going on with Russian LNG in Europe?

因为你听到的这些说法截然不同。

Because you hear these very different stories.

一种说法是他们在逐步淘汰俄罗斯的进口，而另一种说法则是俄罗斯的进口量达到了历史最高水平。

One is they're phasing out Russian imports, and then the other story is, well, Russian imports are at a record high.

如果俄罗斯原油在这场冲突中能获得豁免，那么俄罗斯的液化天然气也很可能获得豁免。

If Russian crude is getting a free pass on this conflict, then Russian LNG will likely get a free pass.

所以，是的，答案是这场冲突持续的时间越长。

And so, yeah, the answer is the longer this conflict takes.

如果你是一个买家，那么谁是液化天然气的主要买家呢？

If you are a buyer, and who are the big buyers of LNG?

主要是欧洲，他们购买液化天然气用于发电。

About Europe, and they're buying it for electricity.

想想日本、韩国、台湾和中国。

Think about Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China.

其中一种策略是供应多元化就是保障供应安全，对吧？

And one of the strategies is diversity of supply is security of supply, right?

这一直是你们观察各个公用事业公司时的信条。

That's kind of been a mantra you look at the various utilities.

这一点已被证明完全正确。

And that's been proven absolutely correct.

如果有人说，卡塔尔人给了我最好的报价。

If anyone said, well, the Qataris are giving me the best deal.

我要100%依赖他们，事后看来，这是个糟糕的选择。

I'm going to be 100 linked to them, That was a terrible, in hindsight, choice.

因此，供应多元化意味着俄罗斯拥有大量的天然气。

And so diversity of supply means Russia has boatloads, yeah, of gas.

他们现在拥有大量的管道天然气。

They've got pipe loads of gas now.

他们有一个不再友好的客户。

They've got a customer that they're not friendly with anymore.

因此，他们有能力建造液化天然气，最终会实现。

And so their ability to build LNG and eventually right.

管道的问题在于它从A点连接到B点。

The problem with the pipeline is it goes from point A to point B.

因此，这就像在管道一端输入物质的人和在另一端取出物质的人之间的一种绑定关系。

And so it is a marriage between the person putting stuff in one end of the pipe and the person taking stuff out of the other end.

你无法移动这条管道。

You can't move that pipe.

LNG的妙处在于你不必绑定在一起。

The beauty of LNG is you don't have to get married.

你可以拥有众多客户，并从中获益。

You can kind of have lots of customers with benefits.

你提到了这一点，我记得在乌克兰被入侵后，欧洲四处抢购市场上所有的LNG运输船，导致一些较贫穷的国家几乎被排除在外。

You mentioned that and I remember these stories after Ukraine, after the invasion of Ukraine and Europe going around and trying to buy every LNG tanker that it could on the market and that there were poorer countries that essentially just got shut out.

接下来发生了什么？

What was the next chapter there?

后来怎么样了？

What happened?

他们做了什么？

What did they do?

是的。

Yeah.

因此，挑战在于每艘LNG运输船的市场需求大约有两倍之多。

And so the challenge is there's probably there are two tons of demand for every LNG cargo.

对吧？

Right?

因此，再气化能力的吨位是液化能力的两倍。

So there are twice as many tons of regas as there are liquefaction.

可以这样理解：液化终端每吨成本为一千美元，而墨西哥湾沿岸的大型终端产能达到一千万吨。

And the way to think about that is a liquefaction terminal costs a thousand dollars a ton, and the ones in the Gulf Coast are big 10,000,000 tons.

因此，你为这个终端投入了100亿美元。

So you're spending $10,000,000,000 for this terminal.

再气化终端的成本只有其十分之一。

Regas terminals are a tenth of that cost.

所以你要投资液化设施

So you invest in liquefaction as

液化是出路。

liquefaction is the way out.

是的，没错。

Yep, exactly.

而气化是入口。

And regas is the way in.

好吧，只是

Okay, just

所以供应商负责液化。

so the supplier does the liquefaction.

是的，买家负责气化。

Yeah, the buyer does the regas.

因此你可以把气化终端作为选项来建设。

So you can build regas terminals as an option.

对吧？

Right?

所以你这边，因此选项翻了一倍。

So you and therefore, there are twice as many options.

当市场紧张时，每个货物都会有两个人争抢，这就回到了出价最高者得之的原则。

And so when the market is tight, you can have two people fighting for every cargo, which brings us back to the person that pays the most gets it.

那么答案是，你需要另一种电力来源。

And then the answer is you need another form of source of electricity.

而发展中国家通常都能获得煤炭。

And it's developing economies are generally going to have access to coal.

对吧？

Right?

他们会拥有煤炭和发电厂，这将是他们的选择。

They'll have coal and power plants, and that's going be their choice.

没错。

That's right.

所以，是的，争夺LNG货物的第二选择就是去买煤。

So, yeah, the second place in fighting for an LNG cargo is to go buy coal.

Bloomberg Daybreak 是你每天早上通过播客频道获取最新资讯的最佳方式。

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning right in your podcast feed.

嗨。

Hi.

我是凯伦·莫斯科。

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Each morning, we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US edition.

这是你每天十五分钟的播客，涵盖全球最新新闻、政治和国际关系。

It's your daily fifteen minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics, and international relations.

每天早上收听Bloomberg Daybreak美国版播客，获取重要新闻及你需要的背景信息。

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

在苹果、Spotify 或任何你听播客的地方关注我们。

Find us on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

几十年来，人们远渡重洋前来寻找约翰·德·上帝，渴望得到医生无法提供的治愈。

For decades, people traveled across the world to see John of God, desperate for cures no doctor could offer.

当他们抵达时，看到了无法解释的事情。

And when they arrived, they saw things they couldn't explain.

这是真实的。

This is real.

这人真的在做手术，这简直是个奇迹。

This guy's actually doing surgery and it's a miracle.

直到那一刻之前，我从不相信奇迹是真实的。

I never believed that miracles were real until that point.

但在那些崇拜的人群背后，却隐藏着更加黑暗的东西。

But behind those adoring crowds was something much darker.

我从未去报警的原因之一，是因为我看到至少五六个带着枪的人始终跟在他身边。

One of the reasons why I never went to the police is because I saw at least five or six men with guns everywhere he went.

我清楚地意识到，闭上嘴，别说话，什么都不要说。

It was clear to me, like, close your mouth, don't open your mouth, don't say anything.

我是主持人马丁娜·卡斯特罗。

I'm your host, Martina Castro.

在播客《两面人：圣约翰》中，我们将回顾一位自称能行奇迹、并让全球各地的人们深信不疑的人。

And in the podcast, Two Faced, John of God, we'll look back on a man who claimed he could perform miracles and got people from all around the world to believe him.

由Exactly Right和Adonde Media出品，这是《两面人：圣约翰》。

From Exactly Right and Adonde Media, this is Two Faced, John of God.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我稍微换个话题。

I'm gonna change the subject slightly.

按照我们采访鲍勃的一贯传统，我就随便抛出一个随机的商品。

In the grand tradition of us interviewing Bob, I'm just gonna throw out a random commodity.

所以去年来过我们现场演出的人都知道，我们有个环节是让观众随意抛出各种东西。

So anyone who came to our live show last year will know we had a segment with Bob where we just had the audience basically throw out random things

鲍勃认识每个人。

And Bob knew everyone.

然后让他针对每样东西侃侃而谈五分钟。

And ask him to talk knowledgeably on each of them for five minutes.

所以我现在就以硫和硫酸为例，照做一遍。

So I'm gonna do the same right now with sulfur and sulfuric acid.

我这么问是因为，我曾经在阿布扎比待过一阵子，记得阿布扎比国家石油公司（ADNOC）这家大型能源巨头曾就其硫磺签订了一些承购协议。

And the reason I ask is because, you know, I was in Abu Dhabi for a while, and I remember ADNOC, the big energy giant over there, striking some offtake deals for its sulfur.

我一向认为硫是原油的副产品，是一种没什么用的东西。

And I was very used to thinking of sulfur as a byproduct of crude oil, like this thing that is kinda useless.

但令我惊讶的是，它其实非常有用，因为可以用它来制造硫酸，而硫酸是蚀刻芯片等工艺所必需的。

But to my surprise, it turns out it is in fact very useful because you can make sulfuric acid out of it, and sulfuric acid is needed for things like etching of microchips.

所以我很好奇，目前硫的状况如何。

So I'm very curious what's happening to sulfur right now.

是的。

Yeah.

现在硫磺最疯狂的事情是阿联酋的肖天然气田着火了。

So the craziest thing happening to sulfur right now is this Shaw Gas Field in UAE is on fire.

这个天然气田中25%的成分是H2S。

That gas field, 25 of the gas is H2S.

他们称之为酸性天然气田。

They call it a sour gas field.

在过去，如果你去一个含有H2S的井场，乔就得剃须。

In the old days, if you ever went out to a well site that was H2S, Joe would have to shave.

因为你需要防护装备来保护自己。

Because the equipment to cover you you need protective gear.

你也得剃须。

You would have to shave too.

对吧？

Right?

我也得剃须。

I'd have to shave too.

这是整个油田的

This is the whole oil will

会要了你的命，你刮胡子的时间会比我长。

kill you It would take you longer to shave than me.

好的。

Okay.

因此，你总能认出那些刚从酸性气田回来的人，因为他们都刮得干干净净。

And so you could always see the folks coming back from a sour gas field because they'd gone clean shaven.

所以，这里是H2S最大的来源之一，同时大约含有10%的CO2。

And so here we have one of the largest sources of H2S, and also it's about 10% CO2.

希望它能得到控制，但这确实是一个巨大的环境和安全风险，对吧？

Hopefully, it's controlled, but that's an environmental huge safety risk, right?

这让人担忧。

So that's worrying.

总的来说，硫并不稀缺。

Now, sulfur in general is not scarce at all.

硫磺到处都是。

We got sulfur all over the place.

这个油田产出硫磺。

This field produces sulfur.

如果你去过哈萨克斯坦西部，就会看到大名鼎鼎的田吉兹雪佛龙油田，那里堆着巨大的硫磺堆。

You can see if you ever go to Western Kazakhstan, the big Tengiz Chevrol Field, right, big piles of sulfur.

此外，全球所有的铜冶炼厂都会产生硫磺，因为你处理的矿石，比如黄铜矿——这种类似愚人金的铜矿石——是一种硫化铜。

Also, every copper smelter in the world generates sulfur because you'll take a mineral, you'll take something like a chalcopyrite, kind of the copper version of fool's gold, and it's a copper sulfide.

所以，如果你去过冶炼厂，就会看到一个巨大的塔，在过去，人们只是把二氧化硫烧掉，为了让酸雨扩散到更大区域，就把塔建得特别高。

And so if you ever visited a smelter, got this big tower where you're, in the old days, you just burn off the sulfur dioxide, you'd make the tower tall enough so that that acid rain spreads across a large area.

或者你可以捕获这些硫磺。

Or you can capture the sulfur.

所以今天，全球的铜冶炼厂都在亏钱。

So around the world today, copper smelters lose money.

对吧？

Right?

经营铜冶炼厂赚不到钱。

You don't make money running a copper smelter.

他们称之为处理费、精炼费。

They call them treatment charges, refining charges.

这些费用几乎是零，有时甚至是负的。

They're kind of zero and they're sometimes negative.

所以铜冶炼厂会打电话给我这个铜矿主，说：我想买你的铜精矿。

So a copper smelter will ring me up as a copper miner and say, I want your copper concentrate.

你可以从这些铜精矿中提取出贵金属。

You can take that copper concentrate, and normally you'll get the precious metals out of it.

所以我可以从你的铜矿石里提取出所有的黄金，赚一笔钱。

So I'll squeeze all the gold out of your copper ore and I'll make some money.

或者我可以提高效率。

Or I'll get an efficiency uplift.

我会为95%的转化率付费，然后从中再赚一点。

I'll pay for 95% conversion, and I'll squeeze some out.

我得到的另一种产品是硫酸。

The other product I get is sulfuric acid.

所以目前，铜冶炼厂正在关注，并意识到他们从硫酸中获得了收入来源。

So right now, copper smelters are looking and saying, hey, we're getting a revenue stream off of sulfuric acid.

大部分硫最终会用于农业。

Most sulfur is gonna go into agriculture.

比如，硫酸铵既是炸药，也是一种优秀的肥料。

So if you've you know, ammonium sulfate, for example, is an explosive, but it's also a great fertilizer.

例如，在哈萨克斯坦——全球领先的铀生产国，其生产过程中会使用硫酸。

And so, for example, if you in Kazakhstan, the leading producer of uranium uses sulfuric acid in the operations.

它们与农业竞争资源。

They compete with agriculture.

因此，当硫酸市场紧张时，你可能会说：得让生产粮食的人优先获得。

And so when the market is tight sulfuric acid, you might say, hey, got to let the people making food win.

所以，在某些地区，硫酸可能会出现短缺。

So you can have areas where you're short sulfuric acid.

我们正在将硫从市场上撤出。

We're taking sulfur off of the market.

硫非常丰富，会有多种来源，而且有大量的铜冶炼厂可以帮助转化它。

It's pretty abundant and there will be sources and there are lots and lots of copper smelters that can help convert it.

所以我们总会找到办法。

So we'll find a way.

在我看来，我们并没有耗尽硫。

So it's not clear to me that we've run out of sulfur.

我认为

I think

它是地壳中第五丰富的元素。

it's the fifth most abundant element in the crust.

我喜欢随便问鲍勃一些问题。

I love asking Bob just like random things.

我们就这么办吧。

Let's just do this.

是的

Yeah.

我知道你基本了解所有大宗商品，但你不是软商品专家，对吧？

I know you basically know all commodity, but you're not a soft sky, right?

你不是说过那个注意事项吗？

Didn't you like caveat that?

所以你不是

So you're not a

曾经被点亮的东西。

Things that were once lit.

是的

Yeah.

如果它来自地球，我会比它来自其他地方更安心。

If it comes from the earth, I'm more comfortable than if it

是对的。

was Right.

那么那些从土地中生长出来的东西

Then things that are grown

是的。

Yes.

从地里长出来的。

From the earth.

明白了。

Got it.

当我们想到当前的战争时，我们显然关注石油、天然气和硫磺，还有其他什么是我们应该关注的吗？

When we think about particularly the war right now, and we've we've obviously oil and gas and sulfur, are there any what else should we be watching?

还有其他奇怪的吗？我想我看到彭博社有一篇不错的标题，说锌价飙升了。

Any other weird I think I saw there was a good headline in Bloomberg about zinc prices have surged.

最近还有其他价格上涨吗？

But anything else going up into the right these days?

是的。

Yeah.

如果你想想铝，它就是一个例子。

So if you think about aluminum's one.

哦，对的。

So Oh, yeah.

好的。

Okay.

如果你回溯到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的时候，大家都说，好吧。

If you went back to when Russia invaded Ukraine, everyone went and said, okay.

俄罗斯生产哪些元素的占比是多少？

What portion of which element does Russia produce?

当时，俄罗斯出产了大量镍、大量铂族金属和钯。

And at the time, a lot of nickel out of Russia, a lot of PGMs, platinum group metals and palladium.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以人们都以为，这些东西要短缺了。

And so people were like, oh, we're gonna run out of those things.

你知道，这次从中东的采矿角度来看，霍尔木兹海峡以西地区开采的矿产并不多，但加工量很大。

You know, this time around, The Middle East, from a mining perspective, doesn't mine a lot West of The Straits Of Hormuz, but they process a lot.

所以冶炼厂基本上就是铝的生产设施。

So smelters are basically an aluminum.

人们常把铝称为固态电力。

People talk about aluminum as solid electricity.

生产铝的大部分成本来自于冶炼厂所需的电力。

Most of the cost to make aluminum is the electricity to make it in the smelter.

因此，你会把铝冶炼厂建在能源便宜的地方。

And so therefore, you put aluminum smelters where you have cheap energy.

比如在巴林，我们就拥有这些大型铝冶炼厂，使用廉价的本地原料——天然气运行。

And so we have some of the certainly in Bahrain, we've got these very large aluminum smelters running off cheap local feedstock, natural gas.

因此，铝价也因此大幅上涨。

And you've seen aluminum price take off as a result.

锌冶炼厂的情况类似，但没那么耗能。

Zinc smelters are similar, not quite as energy intensive.

因此，中东既是本地也是全球廉价能源的来源。

And so to the extent that The Middle East was both a local and a global source of cheap energy.

因此，那些在当地投资的人正在经历这些后果。

And so those that invested locally are seeing some of those consequences.

所有那些锌制酒吧台面都面临危险。

All those zinc bar tops in danger.

这为什么会成为一种现象？

Why did that become a thing?

锌制酒吧台面？

The zinc bar tops?

是的。

Yeah.

在美国这不是一种现象吗？

Is this not a thing in America?

在伦敦，以前如果酒吧有锌制台面，那简直是一种标志。

In London, it used to be like if a bar had a zinc bar top, it was like a thing.

哦，那看起来挺有品位的。

Oh, it was like a nice Classy.

是的。

Yeah.

确实是这样。

It was yeah.

我从来就不明白为什么人们这么喜欢锌制吧台，但也许我们可以开始把它们拆掉并改造一下。

And I never I never really understood why people were really into zinc bar tops, but maybe we can, you know, start ripping them out and converting

大概会吧。

them probably will.

对。

Yeah.

无论是讨论美国国内的天然气，还是石油等等，我都很好奇，自从解放日以来的这一年里，特蕾西和我曾去了一趟阿拉斯加。

You know, whether we're talking about domestic American gas or whether we're talking about oil, etcetera, I'm curious, like over the last year since Liberation Day, one of the stories Tracy and I were up in Alaska.

我们去了一家生产石油管材的小制造商，他们谈到钢材价格的波动如何带来了各种问题。

We were at a little manufacturer of oil country tubular goods, and they were talking about, you know, the fluctuating price of steel and how this was creating all kinds of issues.

关税以及基础设施建设的高昂成本对国内能源基础设施造成了什么影响？

What has been the effect in terms of domestic energy infrastructure from the tariffs and just the sheer cost of, you know, building out the infrastructure?

在很大程度上，能源领域一直被豁免于关税之外。

For the most part, energy has been somewhat exempt from the tariffs.

好的。

Okay.

那么金属方面，我们有哪些情况？

The metal so what did we have?

美国曾对铝征收关税，也对钢铁征收过关税。

We had aluminum tariffs in The US, we had steel tariffs.

我们还一直面临铜关税的威胁，我认为这扭曲了铜价。

We've had this threat of copper tariffs that I think is distorting copper price.

石油、天然气和能源领域基本没有受到波及。

The oil patch, the gas patch, the energy patch mostly been left alone.

好的。

Okay.

因此，像国内钢材含量这样的影响确实显现出来了。

So that flow through of things like the domestic content of steel, right, that's shown up.

但总的来说，如果你考虑今年石油行业是如何制定预算的，它并不是基于

But, yeah, to first order, if you think about how the oil industry set their budgets this year, it wasn't based

这不是一个主要因素。

it wasn't a big factor.

而是基于年初时他们屏幕上原油的价格。

It was based on what was the price of oil on their screen when we started the year.

实际上，关于这一点，我们听到特朗普上台时曾表示，他们会非常支持能源产业，支持所有类型的能源，无论是煤炭、天然气还是其他能源。

Actually, to this, one of the things we heard from the Trump coming in was that they were gonna be very energy friendly, you know, friendly to all the molecules, whether it's coal or gas or whatever.

我们真的看到了有助于这些行业的政策吗？

Have we actually seen policies that have helped those industries?

现在人们对此感觉如何？

Do people feel good about it right now?

我认为，轰炸伊朗是一种有利于油价的政策。

I I would argue bombing Iran is a pro oil price policy.

说得对。

Fair.

对。

Yeah.

说得对。

Fair.

花了一年，

Took a year and

还多一点。

a bit.

但除了战争，国内政策，我想是这样。

But ex war, domestic policies, I guess.

这里存在一种矛盾，你知道，特朗普的一个口头禅似乎是低油价、低汽油价格。

There's this tension between, you know, the fact that, you know, one of Trump's mantras seems to be low oil price, low gasoline price.

他对这一点非常敏感。

He's extremely sensitive to that.

同时，他又支持石油行业。

And at the same time, he's sort of pro the oil industry.

这是一条非常狭窄的路。

That's a very narrow path to tread.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

当油价合理时，石油行业就能赚钱。

The oil industry makes money when oil prices are reasonable.

现在，我认为一个良好的中期油价是每桶75到80美元。

Now, now, I would argue that a good mid cycle price of oil, $75, $80.

对吧？

Right?

这样边缘生产商才能获得回报。

And that's where marginal producers can earn a return.

我们真的没有经历过那种情况。

We haven't really had that.

对吧？

Right?

而且在没有干扰的情况下，自特朗普上台以来，甚至更早之前，我们就没经历过那种情况。

And undisturbed, we haven't had that since Trump took office or much before.

我们一直徘徊在75美元以下。

We've been bouncing below 75.

我们有过供过于求。

We've had a glut.

页岩行业在60美元油价的环境下表现出了惊人的韧性，对吧？

The shale industry has been remarkably resilient, right, amidst $60 oil.

我们没看到页岩油产量大幅减少。

We haven't seen shale oil give up very much.

而欧佩克在需求疲软的情况下仍在向市场增加原油供应。

And OPEC has been adding barrels to the market amidst kind of tepid demand.

所以在特朗普执政的大部分时间里，以及拜登上台后俄乌冲突解决之前，我们一直处在油价的中期水平。

So we've kind of been under mid cycle prices for oil through most of the Trump administration, you know, Biden post the solution in Russia, Ukraine.

所以，是的，没有任何政策。

So, yeah, there is no policy.

那么问题来了，你怎么才能让德克萨斯的人多钻井呢？

So the question is, how do you get somebody to drill more in Texas?

首先，最重要的是回报。

And, you know, first and foremost, it's the returns.

对吧？

Right?

因此，政策的明确性和许可流程已经改善。

So clarity of policy, permitting has improved.

你经常会听到石油行业的人说，没错，过去花在审批和许可上的时间确实减少了。

You'll hear folks in the oil patch say, right, some of the the time you would spend to get things approved, permitted is improved.

但这种情况并没有改变。

But that hasn't changed.

对。

Right.

输入数据包括正在运行的钻机数量、水平钻机数量，以及压裂作业队的数量。

The input, which is how many rigs are running, how many horizontal rigs, you know, how many frac spreads are out there.

过去几年的一个主要趋势——自从我们开始做这个播客以来，尤其是新冠疫情之后——就是一件接一件的事情促使世界各国都开始思考主权和资源安全等问题。

One of the big themes, you know, of the last several years, kind of since we've been doing the podcast, but really since COVID, has been one thing after another that encourages basically every country in the world to think about sovereignty, resource security and so forth.

因此，新冠疫情显然是一个巨大的推动力，促使人们确保拥有必要的物资。

And so obviously, COVID, major impetus to make sure you have stuff.

然后是贸易战，接着是乌克兰战争，现在又是伊朗的战争等等。

Then the trade war, then Ukraine, now that war in Iran, etcetera.

从宏观结构上看，我想过去六年，我们是否将长期承受这一时期对全球商品市场带来的影响？

Big structurally, when you think about, I guess, the last six years now, are we gonna be living with the ramifications of this six year period for years in terms of global commodity markets?

如果你回到冷战时期的第一世界和第二世界，那时有西方阵营和苏联阵营，各自拥有完全独立的全部大宗商品供应链。

So if you went back to the first world, second world, you had the West and you had the Soviet Union, and you had sort of two complete supply chains of all the commodities.

对。

Right?

当时有苏联的冶炼厂，也有西方的冶炼厂。

There were Soviet smelters, and there were Western smelters.

存在大量重复的产能。

And there was just a lot of redundant capacity.

是的。

Yeah.

然后到了九十年代，苏联解体了。

Then you sort of got into the nineties, and you have the collapse of the Soviet Union.

与此同时，中国崛起，你运气不错。

And you had at the same time that China rose, you were lucky enough.

中国超级周期——中国需求的超级周期——恰好出现在这些过剩产能被管理不善的时期。

So the China super cycle, the China demand super cycle came at a point in time where you had all of this excess capacity undermanaged.

对吧？

Right?

因此，你只需要把一点资本主义引入苏联的资产即可。

So all you needed was a bit of capitalism applied to Soviet assets.

而这正是中国能够消耗全球一半铜、一半钢铁和全球一半其他资源的唯一原因。

And that was sort of the only reason China could feed on consuming half of the world's copper and half of the world's steel and half of world's etcetera.

现在我们几乎要反过来说了，你知道吗？

Now we're almost flipping that and we'll say, well, you know what?

中国拥有大量的稀土加工能力，但现在日本和马来西亚也将拥有它。

China has a bunch of rare earth processing, but now Japan and Malaysia will have it.

现在美国也将拥有它。

Now The US is gonna have it.

还有对铜的关税。

And tariffs on copper.

美国需要在铜方面实现自给自足。

Well, The US needs to be self sufficient in copper.

因此，我们正进入一个全球化的长期周期，我们究竟要如何重新资本化这全球化的终点？

So we're entering sort of this long cycle of globalization where are we going to recapitalize the this the end of globalization?

我们将走出去建造两个冶炼厂、五个，或者以其他方式划分这个世界。

We're going go out and build two smelters or five or however we're going to divide the planet.

这需要大量资本投入。

It's very capital intensive.

这效率低下。

It's inefficient.

这会带来强烈的通胀压力。

It would be powerful for its inflationary.

是的。

Yeah.

然后在下一个周期的某一天，我们会释放全部产能。

And then someday in the next cycle, we release it all.

对。

Right.

所以，是的。

So, yeah.

所以，这再次是一种地缘政治学家的观点。

So that's, again, a geopolitician's view.

全球化结束了吗？

Like, is globalization over?

如果一个地缘政治学家让你相信了这一点，那么就会有大量的资产投资涌入大故事中。

If if a geopolitician convinces you of that, then there's going to be a lot of asset investment in big story.

经济。

Economy.

我有个小问题。

I have one tiny question.

特蕾丝会喜欢的。

Trace is going to love it.

你有看《兰曼》吗？

Do watch Landman?

我看过。

I have watched.

我一有机会就会一口气看完。

I tend to binge watch when I get a chance.

所以我一口气看完了第一季。

So I binge watched the first season.

我还没有一口气看完第二季。

I have not binge watched the.

第二季。

Second.

你觉得它真实吗？

Does it feel realistic to you?

这是否是一个富人

Is that a rich

我的亲身经历，是的。

My lived experience Yeah.

你知道的，非常少，好吧。

Has, you know, very little Okay.

对，嗯。

To yeah.

对比兰德曼。

Versus Landman.

我现在生活中很大一部分时间都在听杰里谈论兰德曼。

I would just like to say a significant portion of my life right now is listening to Jerry talk about Landman.

对这部剧着迷了。

Obsessed with the show.

我太喜欢兰德曼了。

I love Landman so much.

总之，鲍勃·布拉凯特。

Anyway Bob Brackett.

是的。

Yeah.

兰德曼是我们这个时代的大白鲸。

Landman is the the Moby Dick of our times.

鲍勃·布拉凯特，非常感谢你再次做客《Odd Lots》。

Bob Brackett, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

总是真正的愉快体验。

Always a a true a true pleasure.

非常感谢你，乔。

Thank you so much, Joe.

谢谢，特蕾西。

Thanks, Tracy.

非常感谢你，鲍勃。

Thanks so much, Bob.

和往常一样，太棒了。

That was great as always.

是的。

Yeah.

天啊，我和鲍勃聊天真是太开心了。

God, I love talking to Bob so much.

很多充满活力的节目都有一件事，我之前也提到过。

One thing with a lot of energy episodes is that and I've mentioned it.

我们都提到过。

We both mentioned it.

能量计算对我来说并不直观。

Energy math is not intuitive to me.

你知道的？

You know?

比如，我很难想象十亿立方英尺到底是什么概念。

Like, I have a very hard time conceptualizing, like, what is a billion cubic feet or whatever?

但在天然气中，尤其是经过液化等种种转换后，简直让人无从下手。

But in that gas, especially with all the conversions that happen between the liquefaction, it's like, find it

真的很难。

really hard.

不。

No.

我理解。

I sympathize.

我小时候就是那种试图把三角形积木塞进圆形孔里的孩子。

I was one of those, like, toddlers that was trying to stick, like, triangle pieces into round holes.

是的。

Yeah.

我一直很难在脑海中想象形状和尺寸，所以完全理解。

I've always struggled to sort of visualize shapes and sizes, so absolutely.

我们身处细胞中，而且我们不是

We're we're in cells, and we're not

形状，是的。

shape Yeah.

Exactly 就是这样。

That's exactly it.

但那一集中有一些特别突出的内容。

But there is a bunch of stuff that stood out from that episode.

有一件事我应该澄清一下，因为我并不是想轻视，你知道的，我问过特朗普政府是否对能源友好，是的。

One thing I should just clarify because I don't mean to make light of, you know, I I asked about the Trump administration being energy friendly Yeah.

转向美国国内的能源生产商。

To domestic US energy producers.

鲍勃说，战争非常……而我则轻描淡写地一带而过。

And Bob was like, well, war is very And I kinda waved it off.

这简直就是巨大的补贴。

Like, it is a huge giveaway

是的。

Yeah.

惠及美国能源产业。

To US energy.

还有，你知道的，伊莎贝拉·韦伯，另一位出色的《Odd Lots》嘉宾，写过一篇论文，探讨了这些油价上涨的实际收益流向了哪里，结果全部流向了美国能源公司。

And, you know, like, Isabella Weber, another great Odd Lots guest, had a paper about, like, where the value of these higher oil prices actually flows to, and it's all The US energy companies.

特朗普自己也说过。

Trump said it himself.

对。

Yeah.

他在他的Truth Social帖子中说过，大概是那样的。

He said it in one of his truth social posts, something like that.

他说，我们实际上会赚更多的钱。

He's like, we're actually gonna make more money.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道的。

You know?

因为大多数人并不是石油生产者。

Because most people are not oil producers.

大多数人是石油消费者。

Most people are oil consumers.

所以人们对于汽油价格上涨并不高兴，但他却巧妙地歪曲了这一点。

And so people are not happy that gas prices, but he, like, sort of spun it.

他说，你看。

He's, oh, look.

我们将会赚很多钱，因为我们现在是液化天然气和原油的净能源出口国。

We're gonna make a lot of money because we're a net oil exporter and energy exporter now between LNG and crude.

所以，是的，国内能源显然受益了，它正乘着一股巨大的浪潮，尤其是乌克兰战争后对液化天然气的需求激增，这可是个大事件。

So, yes, clearly domestic energy has benefited, obviously benefiting, you know, quite a wave that it's riding because obviously the demand for LNG after the invasion of Ukraine, that just that's a very big story.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为这让我们回到了我们之前录制的关于霍尔木兹海峡关闭对中国经济发展影响的那一期。

And I also think this brings us back to the episode we recorded on the impact of the Strait Of Hormuz closure on China's economy.

对。

Yeah.

而且这种观点是，像这样的大宗商品供应中断越多，各国就越会担心关键通道被掐断的问题。

And this idea that well, the more disruptions to commodity supply you have like this, the more you have governments sort of worried about choke points materializing Yeah.

你就会看到向可再生能源的转型会加速，这可能是。

The more you're gonna see a hastened shift to renewables that might be

这一点也是。

That too.

更能抵御这类干扰。

More immune from these types of disruptions.

直到鲍勃在最后提到这一点时，我才意识到，当我们想到2000年代初由中国推动的大宗商品超级周期时。

I hadn't appreciated at all until Bob said it at the very end that, you know, like, when we think of the early two thousands, you know, the the commodity super cycle driven by China.

但在中国经济开放的最初几年里，他们确实受益于产能过剩的现实，全球产能的整合。

But then for the first several years of China Chinese opening up, they really benefited from the fact that there was just a glut of capacity, that the combining of global Yeah.

这一点我之前根本没想过。

Which I hadn't really thought about at all.

也就是说，从经济角度看，当时有大量产能可以向中国供应原材料，尤其是在上世纪90年代中期，正如他所说，将一点资本主义引入那些苏联资产后，突然间大量产能就投入了生产。

That is, like, from an economic perspective, there was a lot of capacity to supply China with raw commodities, particularly in the mid nineties, simply due to the fact that, you know, as he said, apply a little bit of capitalism to those Soviet assets, and suddenly you have a lot of production brought online.

90年代是个特殊的时期。

The nineties were a special time.

一切都很顺利。

Everything was just working out.

人类的巅峰。

Peak humanity.

人类的巅峰时刻。

Peak humanity.

我确实这么认为。

I really believe so.

好的。

Alright.

我们就到这里吧？

Should we leave it there?

我们就到这里吧。

Let's leave it there.

这是《奇思妙想播客》的又一期节目。

This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast.

我是特蕾西·阿拉韦。

I'm Tracy Allaway.

你可以关注特蕾西·阿拉韦。

You can follow me at Tracy Allaway.