伊朗战争对迪拜奢侈品繁荣意味着什么

现在要说‘哦，是的’就太傻了。

Now it's it's it would be silly to say, oh, yeah.

你只接触你那种类型的人。

You only see your type.

我有来自世界各地的朋友。

I have friends from all over the world.

任何住在迪拜的人都有这种特权。

Anyone who lives in Dubai has had that privilege too.

对吧？

Right?

你可以接触到任何你想了解的文化。

Like, you can kinda tap into any culture you want.

是的。

Yeah.

但你也可以一直待在很

But you can also stay very

明白了。

Got it.

固守在你自己的圈子里，比如说。

Fixated in yours, let's say.

可能还存在很多种族阶层分化，比如，你知道的，如果你去一家高档餐厅，坐下来的很多顾客要么是阿联酋本地人，要么是白人，而所有服务员和侍者都来自尼泊尔或印度。

There's also a lot of racial stratification maybe, That's the right Where, you know, if you go into a fancy restaurant, a lot of the people who are, like, sat down will either be Emirati or white, and all the servers and waiters are gonna come from Nepal or India.

这种情况非常明显。

Like, that hap it's very noticeable.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，特蕾西，很多这种情况已经发生了很大变化。

I think I think, Tracy, a lot of that has changed quite a bit.

对吧？

Right?

真的吗？

I think Oh, really?

来自世界各地、包括南亚的巨额资金流入，使得过去在这里非常明显的这种等级制度被大大稀释了。

So much money coming in from all parts of the world, including South Asia, that that hierarchy that used to be so pronounced there is very much diluted a little bit.

所以你会去

So you will go

听到这个真好。

to That's good to hear.

去顶级餐厅或顶级俱乐部，现在你会感受到一种联合国般的氛围。

The top restaurant or top club, and you will kinda see a United Nations type of vibe now.

跟我们聊聊你在迪拜当地听到的情况吧，因为信息流通有点混乱。

Talk to us about what you're hearing just on the ground in Dubai at the moment because the information flow is a little bit tricky.

阿联酋控制着不仅在国内、也在国际上传播的信息。

The UAE controls the information that not only circulates domestically but also circulates externally.

尽管我们看到一些无人机袭击各种建筑的视频，但目前我们对那里的真实情况仍不太清楚。

So while we have seen some videos of drones hitting, various buildings, It's not entirely clear we're we're getting a really good sense of the situation there.

你从当地的朋友和家人那里听到了什么？

What are you hearing from friends and family on the ground?

所以，压倒性的信息是，一切正常，生活仍在继续。

So overwhelmingly, the message is that things are okay and life is moving on.

我认为，你跟该地区任何一个人交谈，都会遇到你刚才提到的那种信息流通问题，这确实是个大问题。

I think anyone you talk to in the region has a certain the information flow problem that you kind of alluded to that is very much a thing.

如今，大多数人通过社交媒体获取新闻和信息。

Most people are getting their news and information from social media nowadays.

社交媒体在阿联酋以及整个地区都受到严格管控。

Social media is very tightly controlled in The UAE and in the region in general.

所以，我们这些对迪拜有深厚感情的外地人，反而比家里的人了解到更多信息。

So a lot of us who are you know, have Dubai sort of close to their hearts from the outside end up seeing kind of more than we more than the people back home do.

当然，发生过一些事情。

Now there have been certain things.

对吧？

Right?

机场曾经遭到袭击。

There was an attack on the airport.

那是重大新闻。

That was major news.

迪拜政府或阿联酋政府会发送警报之类的信息。

The government in Dubai does send or the government in The UAE sends out alerts and all that.

他们看到的就是这类信息。

That's the kind of thing that they see.

但总的来说，我想这将成为我们对话中更广泛的一部分，虽然我不该开沙漠的玩笑，但阿联酋必须塑造出一片宁静与稳定的绿洲形象。

But in general, and I think this is gonna be a broader part of our conversation, and not to make a desert pun here, but The UAE has to project an image of an oasis of calm and stability.

对吧？

Right?

我喜欢说，纽约无论哪一天、无论什么天气，都是一座伟大的城市。

I like to say that New York is a great city any day of the week, any weather at all times.

洛杉矶则必须时刻保持最佳的天气状态。

Los Angeles has to be on its best weather behavior at all times.

阿联酋也有类似的类比。

And there is a similar analogy to be made at The UAE.

整个游戏的前提是必须让人感到安全。

The whole game does not work unless it feels safe.

这是政府最常提及的首要事项。

That is the number one thing that the government talks about.

这是投资者在宣传材料中极力强调的首要卖点，无论是吸引投资还是说服他人将业务迁至阿联酋。

That is the number one thing that investors tout in their materials when you're soliciting investment for The UAE or convincing someone to move your business to The UAE.

安全是最重要的事情。

Safety is the number one thing.

而且，我们并不清楚情况有多严重。

And again, we don't know how bad this is.

我想举一个阿联酋邻国的例子。

I think I'd like to make an example from another neighbor of The UAE.

卡塔尔的能源部长，你们看到他那个评论了吗？

The Qatari energy minister, did you guys see that comment?

我的天，这简直令人震惊。

I mean, that is absolutely stunning.

哦，他说了什么？

Oh, what did he say?

伊朗袭击了卡塔尔的一个液化天然气设施。

So the Iranians struck an LNG facility in Qatar.

而且

And

哦，这跟维修时间有关？

Oh, this about the repair time?

不。

No.

这说的是，他说这次袭击摧毁了卡塔尔17%的出口能力。

This is about he said that it took out 17% of Qatar's export capacity.

做出这样的披露真是令人震惊。

That is a stunning revelation to make.

我觉得这个人叫萨德·阿尔-卡比，我想是这样。

I think this guy, his name is Saad al Qabi, I think.

他比我看过的其他政府部长都要直言不讳一些。

He is a little bit more outspoken than I've seen other government ministers.

但他表示，他们可能不得不对某些国家的出口援引不可抗力条款。

But he said they might have to invoke force majeure contracts on exports to certain countries.

这种说法确实应该让人停下来思考。

That is the kind of thing that should give people pause.

对吧？

Right?

我们稍后会谈到这一点，但许多这些国家——尤其是阿联酋、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和科威特——都是全球格局中的重要投资者。

And we're gonna talk about this in a second, but a lot of these countries, The UAE in particular, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait are big, big investors in the global landscape.

你提到，好吧，你走进一家不错的餐厅，这时候顾客群体可能确实有种联合国的感觉，但正如特蕾西所说，服务员可能来自尼泊尔或其他南亚地区等等。

You mentioned, alright, you go into the nice restaurant, and maybe at this point, it does have a sort of the clientele has this United Nations feel, but as Tracy mentioned, maybe the waiters from Nepal or somewhere else in South Asia, etcetera.

同样，有一种说法认为，世界即将进入他们所称的‘全球永久底层阶级’。

Again, there's this meme in that the world is gonna entering what they call, the global permanent underclass.

你必须购买这种加密货币，因为这是你摆脱全球永久底层阶级的彩票。

You have to buy this cryptocurrency because this is your lottery ticket out of the global permanent underclass.

你必须把所谓的AI和加密货币放在同样的语境下来讨论。

You have to whatever AI sort of are just talked about in the same language as crypto in that respect.

在迪拜内部，那位服务员或服务员的孩子，是否有一种感觉，认为自己永远属于这个永久底层阶级，而且在服务员的生活与餐厅里所有服务对象的生活之间，不存在任何社会纽带？

From inside of Dubai, that waiter or the child of that waiter, is there this sense that they will always be part of that permanent underclass and that there is no relationship in a sort of societal fabric between the life of that waiter and the life of everyone that they're serving in that restaurant.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这非常真实。

I think that that's very true.

在迪拜，霍雷肖·阿尔杰式的故事通常是那些来到这里、为自己创造生活的人。

The Horatio Alger stories in Dubai tend to be the person who's come in and made the life for themselves.

对吧？

Right?

那个30岁一无所有、如今却拥有多艘游艇的顽强创业者。

The scrappy entrepreneur who came at 30 years old with nothing and now owns a bunch of yachts.

这才是那种故事。

That is the kind of story.

在城市内部，你通常看不到社会流动性。

You do not typically see social mobility within the city.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你属于你所描述的社会底层，你往往会一直保持这种状态，直到离开。

So if you are part of what you described as the social underclass, you tend to stay in that role until you leave.

而你最终总会离开。

And you will always leave.

对吧？

Right?

这也是问题的另一部分。

That that's the other part of it.

是的。

Yeah.

说到商业和日常情况，我喜欢通过浏览Instagram来看看那个地区最新的照片，以此获得一些视角。

And just, you know, on your point about business and usual, one of the things that I like to do to sort of get some perspective on an area is go to Instagram and see what the latest photos from that area are.

这就像一种很好的方式，让我一直觉得能感受到这个地方的氛围是什么样的。

And it's sort of like, I've always found that to just be a nice way of like figuring out like, what what is the vibe of this?

这里正在发生什么？

What's going on?

直到今天，如果你尝试查看迪拜的任何地点，尤其是户外地点，你很可能看到的照片里都是很多臀部。

It's still to this day, if you look at if you try to pull up any location in Dubai, particularly an outdoor location, there's a good chance that the only photos you're going to see are you're gonna see a lot of butts in that photo.

对吧？

Right?

你会看到穿着比基尼的女性，背景是哈利法塔，或者一些人工岛链等等。

You're gonna see photos of women in bikinis with the Burj Al Khalifa in the background or some, you know, artificial island chain in the background, etcetera.

就目前传出的信息来看，几乎和一个月前在社交媒体上发布的内容没什么不同。

In terms of the information coming out, it is almost no different than I believe what gets posted on social media is almost no different than it would have been, say, a month ago.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你的策略在新闻更自由的国家会更有效。

I think your strategy works better in a country where there is a broader sort of a more free press, etcetera.

对吧？

Right?

而且你们可能也看到了大量社论涌出。

One of the and you've you guys have probably seen the flood of op eds coming out.

我认为《华尔街日报》驻当地记者写了一篇非常热情洋溢的文章为这个国家辩护，因为这里很容易成为攻击目标。

I think the Wall Street Journal bureau chief back there wrote a very, very spirited piece in defense of the country because it's a very easy place to take shots at.

对吧？

Right?

我们在这期节目中可能也说了几条。

And we've probably taken a couple here in this episode.

这是一个很容易被攻击的地方，因为很多人都是用美国的视角，或者干脆说是堕落的西方视角来评判这种妥协。

It's a very easy place to take shots at because a lot of people are judging the bargain from the American lens or let's call it the lens of the depraved West.

那并不是真正的交易。

That is not the bargain.

他们根本不在乎你，乔。

They don't care about you, Joe.

坦白说，他们关心的是那种富人，他们对更广泛的西方价值观并不太在意，只在乎西方资本主义这一理念。

And to be honest, what they care about is like a wealthy person who does not care so much about the sort of the broader Western ideals and only cares about the Western ideal of capitalism.

然后他们会提供我们之前谈到的其他一切：安全、某种程度上的高品质生活等等。

And then they will provide all the other things we talked about, safety, high quality of life in in one sense, etcetera.

所以情况确实如此。

So that's very much the case.

我认为，作为长期生活在西方的人，我们往往更担心自己看不到真相，而你们却不然。

I I think that we tend to be, as people who've been in the West for a long time, tend to be more concerned that we don't get to see the truth as much as you

知道吗，

know,

他们似乎并不太在意。

they don't seem to care as much.

人们真正关心的是什么？

What do people really care about?

只是有个安全、舒适的生活环境。

Just having a safe, chill place to live.

阿联酋在这方面做得比几乎任何人都好。

And The UAE does that better than pretty much anyone.

是的。

Yeah.

但目前这里确实存在一种紧张态势，如果你是当地公民，你可能希望更多地了解周围飞来的导弹信息。

But, I mean, there is a tension here at the moment where you could argue that if you're a citizen on the ground, like, you would like to be more informed about missiles flying around.

我知道他们有警报系统。

I know they have an alert system.

但既然你提到了Instagram，我现在开始想到地理标签的问题。

But, also, since you mentioned Instagram, I'm now thinking about geotagging.

我们知道，目前迪拜和阿布扎比的许多地理定位服务都处于瘫痪状态，因为它们正受到干扰——这是为了防止伊朗无人机掌握它们的位置，反之亦然。

We know that a lot of the geolocation services in Dubai and Abu Dhabi aren't working at the moment because they're getting jammed, because, they don't want Iranian drones to know where they're going and vice versa.

所以，这里存在一个信息透明度和信息管控的问题。

So, like, there is this informational problem and informational control problem.

但我只想花一点时间谈谈海湾资金在全球范围内的实际流向，这一直是个大新闻，但我认为仍被严重低估了。

But I just wanna talk for a second about where Gulf money has actually been flowing, externally in the world because this has been a big story, but still an underappreciated one, I think.

我觉得有很多活动。

I think there's a lot of activity.

在过去十年的投资格局中。

Of the investment landscape over the last ten years.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah.

明白。

Okay.

跟我们说说吧。

Talk to us about it.

好的。

Okay.

所以总的来说，海湾合作委员会国家的主权基金，我们称之为四大或五大，合计管理着近6万亿美元的资产。

So just broadly, GCC sovereigns collectively, so let's call them the big four, the big five, manage close to $6,000,000,000,000 in AUM.

这占全球主权财富基金总额的40%以上。

That represents more than 40% of the global sovereign wealth fund total.

而且，我认为在90年代，它们的配置可能主要集中在固定收益资产，美国国债是其中的重要部分。

And increasingly, so I think in the 90s they were probably mostly focused on fixed income, US bonds being a big part of the equation.

我认为从2000年代开始，尤其是在2020年代，它们的资金正越来越多地流向所谓的另类投资中的更复杂领域。

I think starting in the 2000s and definitely in the 2020s, they've been flowing towards, let's call it more exotic alts.

它们已经涉足加密货币。

They're in crypto.

它们在风险投资领域进行了大规模投资，而且是最高级别的投资。

They're massively invested in venture capital and at the highest, highest level.

当然，它们也是极其庞大的房地产投资者，既作为有限合伙人参与交易，也越来越倾向于所谓的普通合伙人持股，也就是收购像贝莱德这样的公司的股权。

There are obviously incredibly large real estate investors, both as LPs, so limited partners in deals, but also increasingly in what's known as GP staking, which is when you buy a piece of a BlackRock, let's say.

对吧？

Right?

还有PIF，哦，是的。

And and the PIF who oh, yeah.

所以当PNC在疫情期间出售了其在贝莱德140亿美元的股份时，买家包括摩阿拉、科威特的KIA、卡塔尔的QIA以及沙特的PIF。

So when PNC sold a $14,000,000,000 stake in BlackRock around in the pandemic at some point, the buyers were Moabla, KIA, which is Kuwait, QIA, which is Qatar, and PIF, which is Saudi.

对吧？

Right?

所以它们的布局无处不在。

So they are all over.

它们的触角已深入全球经济的方方面面，尤其是在美国。

The tentacles are so incredibly well spread into all aspects of the global economy, especially in The United States.

我认为随着这场冲突持续下去，我肯定很多人也都在问：这股资金流是否会停止或至少收紧？

And I think one question that I have and I'm sure a lot of people have as this conflict drags on is will that spigot stop or at least tighten up.

对吧？

Right?

因为我觉得你最近在你的通讯中写到，石油美元本质上造就了这一庞大的资金池。

Because I think you wrote about it in your newsletter recently, Petro dollars are essentially what creates this this this giant pool of money.

对吧？

Right?

而现在，假设希望冲突能在接下来几周内结束，如果真是这样的话。

And right now, let's say, hopefully, the conflict ends in the next couple weeks if if that is the case.

阿联酋可以非常迅速地摆脱这个困境，因为它可能拥有现代史上最高效的政府。

The UAE can very quickly get out of this hole because it probably has the best functioning government in the modern era.

如果这场冲突持续数月甚至更久，那你就得面对这些问题了。我的意思是，现在和基金经理聊聊会非常有趣，看看他们正在和PIF、穆巴达拉等机构进行怎样的对话，因为这些对话——我们总说投资者需要确定性，而眼下根本不是这样。

If this goes on for months and and longer, then you have to have those quest I mean, I think it would be really interesting to talk to a fund manager right now and and see what kind of conversations they're having with PIF, Mubadala, and the likes because those conversations and we like to say investors like certainty, and and this ain't it.

对吧？

Right?

好的。

Okay.

一些能源基础设施已经遭到破坏。

There have been the hits to some energy infrastructure.

那为什么情况会改变呢？

Like, why does it change?

你认为有多少资金因为人们随身携带而流入，又有多少资金因为进入那些资助人工智能、基础设施及各类事务的大型基金而流出？

How much do you perceive that this story of lots of money coming in because people carry it in their pockets and then lots of money going out because it enters these huge funds that are funding everything from AI to infrastructure to all kinds of things.

到目前为止，在这场战争中，有什么因素打断了这种模式的走势吗？

So far in this war, is there anything that disrupts the trajectory of that model?

到目前为止，这场战争中还没有任何迹象表明，这场盛宴即将结束。

So far in this war, there hasn't been anything that shows like, hey, this is the party's gonna stop.

但我认为我提到的卡塔尔例子，是我第一个感到震惊的。

But I think the Qatari example that I pointed to is the first one I said, wow.

他们谈论的是出口能力的17%。

They're talking about 17% of export capacity.

这非常严重。

That is very serious.

在某个时刻，如果不是已经的话，卡塔尔投资局必须被纳入讨论，说：好吧，让我们评估一下当前局势。

At some point, if not already, QIA has to be brought into the room and say, okay, let let's assess the situation.

对吧？

Right?

我猜这个问题会提出来。

I would imagine this would come up.

然后还有这些长期投资。

And then there are these long term bets.

我觉得你之前请过我最喜欢的一位嘉宾，齐亚德·达伍德，来谈谈这个话题。

I think you had one of my favorites on at some point, Ziyad Dawud, to talk about.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

他太棒了。

He's so good.

他非常出色。

He's incredible.

他只是

He's just

我们肯定会再请他来。

he's We're gonna get him on again for sure.

是的。

Yeah.

为了我们的听众，他是我们在彭博社的同事。

Just for our listeners, he's our colleague here at Bloomberg.

他在彭博经济部门。

He's in Bloomberg Economics.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

所以，是的，我们会尽快安排他来参加。

And so, yes, we're gonna try and have him on ASAP.

他太出色了。

He's incredible.

我想我第一次听说他是在苏尔坦·卡西米的《文化清单》上，那是他过去做的一件非常有趣的事。

I think I first heard about about him on Sultanu Qasimi's Cultural Much List, which a really fun thing that he used to do.

我觉得他正在重启。

I think he's restarting.

但不管怎样，你们已经和齐亚德谈过阿联酋对埃及沿海开发等领域的350亿美元投资了吧。

But, anyway, you guys have talked to Ziyad about The UAE's $35,000,000,000 investment into kind of the Egyptian coastal development, etcetera.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

这类投资正是我想说的，好吧。

Those kind of bets are where I would say, okay.

这仅仅是一种对未来行动的承诺。

What is that's just sort of a commitment made to doing things in the future.

对吧？

Right?

这是一个大约350亿美元的数字，可能会在接下来的几十年内逐步投入。

It's it's like a $35,000,000,000 number that's gonna probably gonna be over a couple of decades or so.

当你做出这类声明或承诺时，再看到自己国内出现的一些情况——比如重新部署、放缓步伐等，就会让人产生疑虑。

When you make those kind of claims or you make that kind of commitment and you see all this stuff happening with your own in your own home, maybe there's some talk of redeployment, holding back, etcetera.

我认为这些才是关键问题。

I think those are the big things.

我们所讨论的其他大部分资金，稍后我会谈到私人信贷，其实已经承诺并投入到位了。

A lot of the other money we're talking about, and we'll talk about private credit in a minute, has already been committed, deployed, etcetera.

对吧？

Right?

但阿联酋在这些所谓新经济前沿领域的投资规模，我认为还没有得到充分认识。

But the scale of The UAE specifically's investment in this, let's call it the frontiers of the new economy, I don't think is fully appreciated.

我的意思是，MGX是一家由国家所有和控制的机构，由达赫努姆酋长掌控，它整合了来自阿布扎比的多个基金，形成一个至少1.5万亿美元的资金网络，无处不在。

I mean, MGX, which is a state owned, state controlled, Sheikh Dahnoon controls this giant sprawling web of at least a 1 and a half trillion dollar pool of money, the various funds stitched together from Abu Dhabi, it is in everything.

它真的渗透到了每一个领域。

It's it's absolutely in everything.

而且，这 again 是一个关于冲突会持续多久的问题。

And, again, this is again a question of how long the conflict will go on.

我不是这方面的专家。

I'm not an expert on that.

但如果这种情况持续一段时间，就必须对这些资金的流向进行重新审视。

But if this drags on for a bit, there has to be some reckoning with how that money's flowing.

我是弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦，一位获奖记者，我有一个新播客，名为《弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦的领袖》，由彭博播客出品。

I'm Francine Lacroix, an award winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast, Leaders with Francine Lacroix from Bloomberg Podcasts.

我采访过从国家元首到时尚偶像等各界人士，探讨当下最热门的新闻。

I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment.

但我一直好奇，这些人在作为领导者时究竟是怎样的人。

But I've always been curious who are these people as leaders.

我认为没有一种

I don't think there's one

固定的领导方式。

right way to be a leader.

做出决定。

Make decisions.

一个糟糕的决定总比没有决定要好。

A poor decision is always better than no decision.

每隔一周的星期一收听新一期节目。

Listen to new episodes every other Monday.

在您收听播客的任何平台关注《与弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦谈领袖》。

Follow leaders with Francine Lacroix wherever you get your podcasts.

如果我们真的看到大规模外流，嗯。

If we actually see an exodus Mhmm.

从迪拜。

From Dubai.

就人口而言，

And In terms of population,

你的意思是？

you mean?

就人口而言。

In terms of population.

而且据我所知，最近几周我确实看到有人离开。

And anecdotally, I certainly have seen people leaving in recent weeks.

很难说他们是打算永久离开，还是只是计划在冲突最严重的时候暂时离开。

It's hard to tell if, you know, if they're gonna leave forever or if they're just planning on departing during the worst of the conflict.

但如果我们看到迪拜出现大规模外迁，房地产价格很可能会受到影响，这可能是导致政府财政压力加剧的突破口。

But if we were to see an exodus from Dubai, and presumably real estate prices would be impacted from that, that could be the line of entry where you start to get more pressure on government finances.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，相比世界上其他任何城市，迪拜更依赖于情绪和信心，对吧？

I I think more than any other city probably in the world, Dubai is in the sentiment business, right?

情绪和信心，对吧？

The sentiment business, right?

他们的主要收入来源是房地产、旅游业和商业。

Their primary sources of revenue are real estate, tourism and commerce.

对吧？

Right?

这三大产业都属于情绪驱动型产业。

Those are the three and those are all sentiment based industries.

事实上，我认为我 personally 没有听说过像九十年代第一次海湾战争期间那样大规模的撤离潮。

In fact, I don't think I've seen I haven't heard personally of any departures in the way that I remember in the the first Gulf War in the nineties, there was a flood of people that left.

我认为，相比之下，如今阿联酋所面临的考验比那时更严峻。

I think that if anything The UAE is kind of being more tested now than back then.

我认为这次他们为让人们留下来，确实很好地制定了长期激励措施。

I think they've done a really good job of creating long term incentives this time around for people to stick around.

比如黄金签证，这与EB-5签证或特朗普黄金卡非常相似。

Things like the golden visa, which is very similar to the EB five visa or the Trump gold card.

它基本上是参照黄金签证设计的。

It's kind of modeled on on the golden visa.

比如产权、更健全的法律体系。

Things like property rights, a more robust legal system.

他们把这些措施都整合在一起了。

They've put all those things together.

现在如果人们开始离开，那会是什么样子？

Now if people do leave, what does that look like?

首先，房地产价格，人们长期以来一直在讨论阿联酋可能出现的调整。

First of all, real estate prices, people have been talking about a correction in The UAE for a long time.

如果人们开始离开，这肯定会成为讨论的话题。

If people start leaving, is certainly going to be on the table.

对吧？

Right?

然后，为许多这些项目提供融资的基础设施也将面临考验。

And then kind of the back infrastructure of financing a lot of these projects will be tested.

债券市场、伊斯兰融资市场等等。

The bond market, the Islamic financing market, etcetera.

那时事情就会开始变得不稳了。

That's when things will start getting shaky.

再说一遍，迪拜现在拥有一个非常、非常、非常强大的私募市场经济体。

And again, one of the things that is Dubai has got a very, very, very robust private markets economy now.

但无论如何，政府在其中都有一些参与。

But at some point or the other, there is some government involvement in that.

对吧？

Right?

无论是通过兜底，还是作为许多项目的有限合伙人等等。

Either by backstopping or being an LP in many things, etcetera.

我不确定。

I I don't know.

我认为，特蕾西，我不清楚伊玛拉现在的情况，但曾经它确实是国家的一个延伸。

I think, Tracy, I I don't know where Imara stands now, but at some point, it was very much an arm of the state now.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

I yes.

我觉得这很公平。

I think that's fair.

对。

Yeah.

所以我认为，如果我们真的看到大规模撤离或资金外流，那么这个市场的稳定性就有很多问题需要探讨。

So I think we'll be if we do see an actual exodus or an outflux, then there is a lot of questions to be asked about the stability of that market.

而且，这确实是一个疯狂的市场。

And again, this is an absolutely insane market.

所以，情况一直偏离预期。

So things have been selling off plan.

有报道称，单日就卖出了8亿美元的产品。

There are stories out there about $800,000,000 worth of product selling in a single day.

对吧？

Right?

这是一种由动量驱动的购买行为，我需要趁这个市场还相对可负担时赶紧入场。

That is a momentum driven, like, I need to get in while this market is still semi affordable.

所谓相对可负担，我想我们最初之所以能连接上，是因为你必须把全球超豪华市场看作是一系列房产的集合，而不是与本地同类房产做比较。

And by semi affordable, I think one of our the reason we connected in the first place is that you have to look at the ultra luxury market in the world as a collection of properties as opposed to compare them to local comps.

对吧？

Right?

从这个角度来看，迪拜、阿布扎比等地仍然算是相对的性价比之选。

And at that level, if you look at it from that level, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, etcetera are still a relative bargain.

对吧？

Right?

所以这一切实际上都取决于来自超高净值人群的需求是否持续，而安全性显然是其中的关键因素。

So this all really is contingent on it maintaining its demand from very wealthy people, and safety is obviously that that x factor in all of that.

你可以说阿联酋拥有世界上运作最良好的政府，我认为这一点非常重要，因为在西方国家——尤其是在美国、英国、法国、欧洲等地——这种说法在百万年内都不会有人说出来。

You could make the argument that The UAE has the best functioning government in the world, and I think this is very important because particularly in the West, that is not a comment that will be uttered in a million years in The United States, in The UK, in France, in Europe, etcetera.

我的意思是，一个运作良好的政府这个概念，几乎让人感觉像是

I mean, the idea of a functioning government feels almost like a

那是什么？

it What's that?

这些词现在已经不再搭配了。

Those words don't even go together anymore.

你能稍微解释一下，这到底是怎么运作的吗？

Could you explain a little bit, you know, how that works?

我们常常认为政府，尤其是非民主国家，充满腐败且毫无问责机制等等。

We often think that governments, particularly non democracies, are riven with corruption and have no accountability and so forth.

从纸面上看，有各种理由认为这根本不可能实现。

And there are there are all kinds of reasons on paper to think that that would be impossible.

你如何描述这种政府的组织原则，使其不至于崩溃，无论它究竟是什么？

How would you describe the sort of organizing principle of the government such that it doesn't collapse, whatever it is?

它的结构中有什么特别之处，使得公共部门被认真对待并高效运作？

What is it about how it's structured where actually public sector is taken very seriously and effective?

好的。

Okay.

这是个沉重的问题，但让我们试试看。

That's a heavy question, but let's try.

对吧？

Right?

这其中有两个方面。

There's two elements to this.

一方面是一个运转良好的社会，一切似乎都很顺畅，阿联酋政府在这方面可能做得非常出色。

One is a functioning society in which things just seem to work and the UAE government has done probably, again, an incredible job of doing that.

你想创办一家企业，就可以做到。

You wanna set up a business, you can do it.

你想赚钱，赚到的就是你的。

You wanna make money, it's yours.

没人会把你的钱拿走。

No one takes it away from you.

这一直如此，等等。

This has always been true, etcetera.

对吧？

Right?

如果发生犯罪，会很快得到处理。

If a crime happens, it is handled very quickly.

这是其中一部分。

That's one part of it.

对吧？

Right?

这是实际可见的地面情况。

That's the actual tangible on the ground.

他们一直在修路。

They build roads all the time.

你能看到进展。

You can see the progress.

路上从来看不到坑洞。

There's never a pothole in sight.

你永远看不到任何流浪汉。

You will never see any vagrants.

你永远看不到任何暴力犯罪之类的。

You will never see any violent crime, etcetera.

所以，作为一个在这里生活、年收入五十万美元、期待某种生活质量的人，政府正在为我提供这种生活质量。

So that is the as a person living here that makes half $1,000,000 a year and expects a certain quality of life, the government is giving me that quality of life.

这是其中一部分。

That's one part of it.

另一部分则更具有政治技巧，对吧？

The other part of it is a little more state crafty, right?

那就是制造一种幻觉，认为这是世界上最好的政府。

Which is the illusion that is created that this is the best government in the world.

制造一种幻觉，认为这是世界上最安全的地方，然后由每一个居住在这里的人不断重复和放大。

The illusion that it's created that this is the safest place in the world and then is repeated and amplified by everyone who lives there.

因为这就是协议的一部分。

Because that's part of the deal.

对吧？

Right?

你去那里，任何人都会发现，他们确实非常出色地构建了这样的社会。

You go there, anyone and and, again, they do an incredible job of of creating that society.

从运动员到演员到足球运动员等，都会随机为迪拜说好话。

Everyone from athletes to actors to footballers, etcetera, will throw in a plug for Dubai randomly.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

似乎在他们任何一次对话中都会随机提到。

Seemingly randomly in any conversation they have.

我认为这部分是因为感激，另一部分是因为这似乎是协议的一部分。

And and I think part of this is because there's gratitude, and part of it is because it seems like that's part of the deal.

我们再回到私人信贷上吧，因为这正是我们特别想和你交谈的原因之一，你知道，大量直接贷款资金以各种方式进入了你的领域。

Let's go back to, private credit for a second because this is one of the reasons we really wanted to talk to you because a lot of that money, you know, direct lending has has found its way into your world in various ways.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

很难衡量海湾合作委员会国家在这一市场中的活跃程度或规模，但你的看法是什么？

It's hard to gauge how active or how big the GCC presence in that market has been, but what's your sense of it?

我认为它的规模一直相当大，并且还在不断增长，一个很好的例子就是穆巴达拉。

I think it's it's been fairly large and only growing, and I think a good example to look at is something like Mubadala.

对吧？

Right?

穆巴达拉是其中最突出的机构之一。

Mubadala is one of the more prominent.

我认为它的资产管理规模大约是3500亿美元，而且在私人信贷领域非常积极。

I think it's $350,000,000,000 ish AUM, but is incredibly aggressive in the private credit space.

他们最近全面收购了富达仕，这是一家在商业地产信贷领域的重要玩家。

They recently did a full takeover of Fortress, which is a big player in commercial real estate credit.

他们一直如此，我想我们在你的通讯里也讨论过这一点。

They have been and I think we talked about this in your in your newsletter as well.

阿布扎比总体上已经深度参与债务市场，不仅直接收购像Fortress这样的公司，还作为有限合伙人大量投资于我们看到的许多私募信贷基金。

Abu Dhabi in general has been getting very much into the debt game, not only directly by purchasing companies like Fortress, but also by being an anchor LP in a lot of the private credit funds that we see.

对吧？

Right?

所以贝莱德，我想这一切都回归到我们常说的‘资产管理规模吞噬’趋势。

So BlackRock and I think this this all comes back to a trend that we like to call AUM gobbling.

对吧？

Right?

所以，现在已不存在所谓的中型优质基金了。

So you cannot there's no such thing as a good mid sized fund anymore.

每个人都必须成为布鲁克菲尔德，或者必须成为黑石。

Everyone's gotta be Brookfield or everyone's gotta be Blackstone.

因此，第六街、Fortress这些公司的联席首席执行官曾表示：为了保持相关性，我们必须持续扩大资产管理规模。

And so Sixth Street, I think Fortress, this co CEO made the statement which is like, for us to stay relevant, we need to keep growing assets.

仅仅管好现有的资产并做得很好是不够的。

It's not enough to run the book that we have and do it well.

我们只能不断吞并其他领域。

We just have to keep gobbling up other parts of things.

所以如果你有一个专项基金，比如专注于老年住房和保障性住房的基金，你做得非常好。

So if you had a dedicated fund, let's say you had a senior housing and affordable housing fund, you're doing very well.

你管理着20亿美元的资产。

You have $2,000,000,000 you're running.

你在这方面非常出色。

You're incredibly good at that.

但最终，来自Fortress或第六街等公司的收购电话会打来，你就被收购了。

Eventually, the call comes in from a fortress or a 6th Street, etcetera, and you're picked up.

要实现这类交易，你需要极其庞大的流动性或资本，而谈到这一点，所有线索都指向阿布扎比。

To make these kind of things happen, you need an incredible amount of liquidity slash capital, And all roads lead to Abu Dhabi when it comes to that kind of thing.

是的。

Right?

彭博社曾发表过一篇精彩的文章，讲述如何会见全球的1.5万亿美元富豪，文章标题好像是关于谢赫·达赫努恩及其庞大的公司网络，非常精彩。

So Bloomberg had an amazing article about how to how to meet the world's 1 and a half trillion dollar man, think it was called, and it was about Sheikh Dahnoon and his entire web of companies and amazing.

这样的数字。

That kind of figure.

一旦你与谢赫或他的副手建立了联系，就能获得近乎无限的资本。

And once you're in with someone like the sheikh or one of his deputies, you have access to kind of unlimited amount of capital.

拉里·芬克去阿布扎比了？

Larry Fink is in Abu Dhabi, what?

我敢说，每个月都去。

I I would venture to guess every month.

雷·达利奥有一张经典照片，他坐在科多拉飞机里，与所有重量级人物围坐桌旁。

Ray Dalio, there's that iconic shot of him in the condora sitting there at the table with all the movers and shakers.

他们在房地产私募信贷领域已经渗透到了每一个方面。

They have they have sort of infiltrated every aspect of private credit when it comes to real estate.

这个名字不断出现。

The name keeps coming up.

即使名字没有直接被提及，它也会作为我们讨论的这些公司的幕后支持者出现。

And if the name doesn't come up directly, it comes up as a backer of a lot of these companies that we talked about.

AI基础设施，我认为，公共投资基金是黑石的锚定投资者。

AI infrastructure, PIF, I believe, the anchor investor in black Blackstone.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

公共投资基金是黑石基础设施基金的锚定投资者，这个基金被他们称为切入AI热潮的窗口。

And PIF is the anchor investor in Blackstone's infrastructure fund, which is their, quote, lens into the AI boom.

MGX是这个时断时续的政府项目——美国政府与OpenAI等合作的‘星门’计划——的合作伙伴。

MGX is a partner in this really stop and start government project, the US government called Stargate with OpenAI, etcetera.

这个项目进展有些起伏，但MGX是该项目的锚定投资者。

It's had a bit of a mixed run, but MGX is an anchor investor in that.

MGX还与微软和贝莱德共同投资了这一大型AI项目。

MGX is also an investor with Microsoft and BlackRock in that giant AI venture.

对吧？

Right?

因此，阿布扎比或中东任何一方参与这些大型基础设施投资的可能性非常高。

So there's just the the odds that Abu Dhabi or one of the Middle Easterns is involved when it comes to these big infrastructure bets is very high.

海湾国家并没有要求这场战争。

The Gulf States didn't ask for this war.

是的。

Mhmm.

至少绝大多数是这样。

At least the vast majority.

跟我们谈谈地区政治吧。

Talk to us about sort of regional politics.

当然，我们知道这可能是他上任后首次出访，特朗普很快便去了海湾地区。

And obviously, you know, we know that it may have been his first foreign visit, right, since taking the presidency, Trump quickly went to The Gulf.

而且，你知道，即使在

And, you know, even at

那个挥剑舞蹈的时刻。

the The sword time dance.

那个标志性的挥剑舞蹈表演。

The iconic sword dance thing.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

那个球体。

The the orb.

那是在

That was in the

第一支号角里。

first trumpet.

是的。

Yeah.

但还是同样的情况。

But still same same deal.

你会觉得特朗普的品味像打高尔夫一样。

You get this impression that, like, Trump has golf tastes.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，即使在这一切之前，人们对于特朗普品牌的印象就是俗气的奢华。

That I mean, even even before all this, right, he his brand was actually so the way that people in New York think of the Trump brand is tacky luxury.

俗气的奢华。

Tacky luxury.

对吧？

Right?

在海湾地区，人们则认为它是纯粹的奢华。

In The Gulf, it's thought of as luxury luxury.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

他们一直以来在很多方面都很相似，比如对社会拥有极大的控制力，而这正是我们的总统一直渴望达到的。

It's it's always been they're they're simpatico in so many ways from kind of having incredible control over their societies, which is something that our president has has always kind of aspired to.

对吧？

Right?

有些人会说，他在这一方面做得相当不错。

And some would say he's he's doing pretty well on that front.

但唐纳德·特朗普和海湾地区之间一直存在这种默契，是的。

But there's always been that kind of simpatico between Donald Trump and The Gulf Yeah.

领导人。

Leaders.

不过，最近在这方面出现了一些摩擦。

There has been some friction on that front recently though.

这正是我想表达的，我就是要说明这一点。

Well, this is what I'm trying this is what I'm getting at.

比如，这种情况会改变吗？

Like, could that change?

再次强调，为了这场他们根本没要求的战争，他们的国内经济遭受了巨大损失。

Again, massive damage to their domestic economies for a war that they certainly didn't ask for.

在这场战争结束之后，美国与海湾地区之间是否有可能走上一条稍有不同的新道路？

Is there any prospect of, in the wake of this, whenever that ends, some slightly new trajectory between The US and The Gulf?

如果战争持续下去，很难说，但目前我认为不会。

Impossible to tell if the war drags on, but for now, I don't think so.

我认为他们在这一问题上一直与美国的政策保持高度一致。

I think they've been pretty in lockstep with, pretty in lockstep with The US's policy on this.

对吧？

Right?

有报道称，这一点沙特方面非常积极推动，不过这超出了我的职责范围和报道领域。

There's there's been reports, and this is above my pay grade and above my beat, but there's been reports that Saudi was very much pushing for this this Yeah.

这是唯一的例外。

That's the one exception.

你多少会感觉沙特也是其中之一。

You sort of get the impression that Saudi was also one of Right.

然后是海合会国家，没错。

And and then the GCC countries Correct.

海合会国家经常意见不一，尤其是在伊朗问题上。

The GCC countries often don't see eye to eye, especially on Iran.

对吧？

Right?

阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯这两个强国在许多地缘政治问题上存在相当多的摩擦。

There's there's fair amount of friction between the two powerhouses, The UAE and Saudi Arabia on a lot of geopolitical issues.

他们是兄弟，但又不完全是，对吧，嗯。

They're they're brothers but kinda not, right, well.

总体而言，它们在资本竞争上存在很多 rivalry。

And there's a lot of rivalry in general for capital.

我听说，即使特蕾西住在那里时，流行的笑话是：你住在迪拜，每周有四天跑去沙特阿拉伯出差，抱歉，是去沙特。

The joke I think even when Tracy lived there was probably you lived in Dubai and you would go consult in Abu Dhabi sorry, in Saudi for four days a week.

现在这种情况已经不那么常见了。

That's not so much the thing anymore.

沙特一直在推动人们搬到那里生活，还以失去业务等为威胁。

Saudi's been pushing people to live there and, you know, upon threat of losing business, etcetera.

但我想起美国政府与海合会之间可能存在的分歧，到目前为止，我们还没看到任何来自政府层面的摩擦。

But I think back to this fracture or potential fracture between the US government and the GCC, we haven't seen anything from government level friction yet.

不过，我们已经看到几位极具影响力的企业家。

We have seen, though, a couple of very influential businessmen.

哈利夫·阿尔哈普图尔，这位阿联酋的重要开发商，曾发布一封信，严厉批评特朗普在以色列的推动下挑起这场冲突。

Khalaf Al Haptur, who was a big developer player in the in The UAE, had had put out a letter kind of excoriating Trump for starting this conflict at the behest of at the behest of Israel.

对吧？

Right?

对于阿联酋这样层级的企业家来说，公开谈论此事可是件大事。

And this was a this was a big big deal for statesman level businessman in The UAE to to talk about this.

这封信后来被部分删改了。

The letter was at some point redacted.

对吧？

Right?

随后，阿尔哈图尔接受了《华盛顿邮报》的采访，做了一场极其精彩的对话，谈到了长期凝聚力等问题。

And then and then Al Hattur sat down with the Washington Post and did this incredibly entertaining interview about, you know, it's more about kind of the cohesion for the long term, etcetera.

他并不支持这场战争，但我认为，此时此刻得罪美国盟友并不是明智之举，等等。

Doesn't agree with the war, but I think in general, pissing off your American allies at this point is not good, etcetera, etcetera.

所以我们已经看到一些这种情况了。

So we have seen some of that.

现在，乔，你的问题其实是在问这场冲突会持续多久。

Now again, Joe, your question is really about how long this lasts.

目前，他们还能勉强维持局面。

For now, they can kinda keep things going.

但如果这场冲突持续数月甚至更久，天哪，那可能会出现一些更大的裂痕。

But if this is a months long conflict or longer, god forbid, then then then there might be a little bit more of a fracture.

对吧？

Right?

就此而言，你在关注哪些方面，以评估迪拜房地产市场的整体状况，以及石油资金在更广泛房地产领域中的流动情况？

Just on that note, what are you watching in terms of, I guess, gauging the overall health of the Dubai property market, but also the overall health or circulation of of that oil money in in the wider property space?

关于迪拜房地产市场的整体状况，我认为你需要关注的是，任何已计划或宣布的项目是否仍在按原定时间表推进。

So on the first one about the overall health of the Dubai property market, I think one thing you wanna pay attention to is if any planned or announced projects, if they're kind of continuing on the timeline that they talked about.

这些项目大多像迈阿密的经济一样，依赖预售。

Again, lot of these depend kinda like Miami's economy on presales.

对吧？

Right?

他们先获得承诺，然后才去建造。

They they they get commitments and then they go build the thing.

至于景观，我的意思是，这些建筑越来越离奇。

And the the views I mean, these things get more and more fantastical.

特蕾西，这个特别适合你。

Tracy, this is very much for you.

我找一个例子给你们看。

There's one I'm gonna pull it up.

等一下。

Hang on.

有一座正在兴建的塔楼，叫Aiwa，是一座21层的住宅楼，设计灵感来自《阿凡达》电影中的哈利路亚山脉。

There's a tower that's coming up which is called Aiwa, which is a 21 story a 21 story residential tower designed to look like the Hallelujah Mountains from the Avatar movies.

对吧？

Right?

那已经没了。

That's gone.

等等。

Wait.

你能再给我讲一遍吗？

Why do you say that once for me?

因为你喜欢这种东西。

Because you love this stuff.

你一直想要

You've always wanted to

我确实喜欢。

I do.

我确实喜欢。

I do.

是的。

Yeah.

我喜欢听你讲这些，虽然我不想过那样的生活

I like I I wouldn't wanna live there, but I like hearing you about it

当然。

for sure.

他们在工程和设计方面做了很多有趣的创新。

They're doing a lot of interesting innovations with engineering and design.

他们现在也在建造类似曼哈顿那样的超细高塔。

They're doing Manhattan like skinny super talls now as well.

他们有一座正在兴建的塔楼，高宽比达到17比1，这种超细的铅笔式摩天楼通常出现在亿万富翁大道上。

So they have a they have a tower coming up that's a 17 to one height to width ratio, which is the kind of skinny pencil tower that you would see on Billionaires Row.

是的。

Yeah.

但在亿万富翁大道，土地资源极其有限。

But on Billionaires Row, land is such a crazy constraint.

而在迪拜，直到最近才真正开始

In Dubai, it hasn't really been until until

最近。

more recently.

想到他们现在就在做这样的事。

To think that they're doing that now.

这已经发展到这种地步了。

That like that's that's how far it's gotten.

嗯，我认为两者都有。

Well, I think it's a little bit of both.

我认为这既是为了应对财务限制，也是因为既然纽约都在这么做，那为什么这里不跟风呢？

I think it is one a financial constraint that they're trying to solve for and the other like, hey, if this is all the rage in New York then why not do it here?

和政府，或者抱歉。

With with with the government or with the sorry.

在阿联酋，很难分辨哪些是出于财务审慎，哪些只是因为别人 elsewhere 做了，所以跟着做。

With The UAE, it's hard to tell when it's being done for sort of financial prudence and when it's being done because someone else somewhere else did it.

他们的策略是什么？

What has been the strategy?

我的意思是，好吧，超级富豪正在迁往海湾地区，迁往海合会国家。

I mean, okay, the ultra rich going moving to moving to The Gulf, moving to the GCC states.

那么，推动中等富裕人群，也就是他们所说的大众富裕阶层，迁入的力度有多大呢？

How active is the push by to get just the merely rich or the sort of, as they would say, the mass affluent, etcetera.

有没有努力让更多世界各地的人意识到，他们可以搬到迪拜，减少税负，享受更舒适的生活和更好的气候？

Has there been a push to sort of make more people around the world aware of the fact that they can move to Dubai and cut their tax bill and live a much more comfortable life in better weather?

我认为这是政府的一项战略要务。

I would say it's almost a strategic imperative of the government.

这是一个庞大的计划，不仅为了吸引全球的富豪——那更多是基于个人的银行关系，

It is such a big initiative to get not just your re dallios of the world, which is much more of a personal relationship, banking relationship

是的。

Yeah.

而是为了吸引那些愿意接受这种生活方式的家庭前来定居。

But to get those families that are down for this lifestyle to come over.

当你现在进入迪拜机场——这是全球最繁忙的机场之一——你会看到巨大的、极其巨大的互动广告，面向各种族裔群体。

When you enter the Dubai Airport now, which is one of the busiest airports in the world, you will see these giant, absolutely giant interactive ads about all ethnicities.

以前这些广告里通常出现的都是白人。

Used to see typically, you would see white people in these ads.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我几个月前，或者一个月前刚去过。

I I just went a couple months ago or a month ago.

你现在看到的是乌兹别克人。

You're seeing Uzbeks.

你看到的是加拿大人。

You're seeing Canadians.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且广告上明确写着：加拿大人，这就是你们的迪拜。

And and it says specifically, Canadians, this is your Dubai.

乌兹别克人，这里是你们的迪拜，等等。

Uzbeks, this is your Dubai, etcetera.

他们正在将这种推广推向更远的范围，我一点都不惊讶，政府可能设有专门部门来处理你所提到的这类事情。

They are pushing this beyond I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if there's like an arm of the government dedicated just to what you're talking about.

再回到思考未来可能出现问题的预警信号，你在全球资本领域关注哪些迹象？

And just going back to thinking about, you know, warning signs of trouble ahead, what are you looking for in that global capital space?

很多这类对话都是在私下进行的，但我想我们正在做的一件事是与基金经理沟通，看看这些有限合伙人是否表现出任何犹豫，对吧？

A lot of these conversations happen behind closed doors, but I think one of the things that we're doing is talking to fund managers and seeing if there's any kind of hesitance expressed by these LPs, right?

无论是在质押对话中还是在支持基金时，这可能是你最能感受到压力的地方，只不过现在还没出现。

Whether it's in staking conversations or backing funds, that's probably where you're to see the most pressure, which is not now.

在融资方面，‘现在不行’就跟‘不行’一样。

And in fundraising, not now is as good as no.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你开始看到这样的对话，比如布鲁克菲尔德即将再次募集一只困境信贷基金，而与阿布扎比或沙特等机构的沟通变得越来越犹豫不决，那绝对是值得关注的信号。

So if you start seeing those conversations where God knows Brookfield is going to raise another distressed credit fund and the conversations with Abu Dhabi or with Saudi, etcetera, get a little bit more little bit more wishy washy, that is something definitely to look out for.

对吧？

Right?

因为如果没有持续不断的推动力，这件事就无法推进。

Because without ongoing constant momentum, this doesn't work.

而且所需资本的规模，我想一个很好的例子是，天啊。

And and the and the scale of capital needed I think the a great example is that oh god.

如果现在还在进行那笔艺电的杠杆收购交易，也就是以前的艺电体育（Electronic Arts），那笔交易的杠杆收购金额高达550亿美元，我认为这是历史上最大的一笔。

If that electronic arts LBO deal was going on now, the EA Sports, formerly EA Sports Electronic Arts, It was a $55,000,000,000 LBO, which I believe is the largest in history.

这笔交易居然是由杰瑞德·库什纳随意促成的。

It was brokered randomly by Jared freaking Kushner.

对吧？

Right?

而且主权财富基金PIF在这笔交易中注资了290亿美元，以取得艺电的多数控股权。

And PIF wrote a 29,000,000,000 equity check into this transaction to take I think majority control of EA.

在当前的环境下，这笔交易还会发生吗？

Would that deal have happened in this environment?

我敢说，这样的交易在现在这个环境下会花更长的时间。

I venture to say it would have taken a little bit longer.

好的，海滕。

Alright, Hiten.

我们就到这里吧，但这次对话真是太棒了。

We're gonna have to leave it there, but this has been a fantastic conversation.

非常感谢你再次回来。

Thank you so much for coming back

在Odd上。

on Odd

很多。

Lots.

非常感谢。

Really appreciate it.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

谢谢你，特蕾西。

Thank you, Tracy.

谢谢，乔。

Thanks, Joe.

乔，显然，那场对话中有很多令人印象深刻的地方，但我一直在想Hiten在最后提到的那种飞轮效应，以及这一切之间的相互关联性。

Joe, obviously, a lot that stood out from that conversation, but one of the things I was thinking was that sort of flywheel dynamic that Hiten was talking about towards the end, and also just the interrelatedness of all of this.

所以，我认为，如果你是阿布扎比或迪拜的主权财富基金，目前在私募信贷和科技领域投入了大量资金，那么即使不考虑海湾地区正在发生的事情，目前也存在一些担忧。

So I I think that one of the difficulties is if you're a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi or Dubai at the moment, and you've invested a lot in private credit, a lot in tech, those areas, even independently of what's happening in The Gulf, there are concerns around that at the moment.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yes.

然后，如果你进一步想，也许阿联酋未来无法像过去那样卖出那么多石油，或者由于各个城市频繁发生无人机袭击，其税收和旅游业收入可能会开始下降。

And then if you think that, well, maybe The UAE won't be able to sell as much oil as it has in the past, or maybe some of that tax and tourism revenue is gonna start going down because there are drone strikes in various cities.

我认为，这正是可能出现真正疲软的根源。

That's, I think, where you start to get the potential for some real weakness.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你想想，究竟需要多少才能改变他们的轨迹？

I mean, you just think, like, how much does it really take to change their trajectory?

难道会简单到只是一次有意义的放缓吗？

And does it you know, could it be as simple as a meaningful downshift?

比如说，战争很快结束。

Let's say the war ends fairly soon.

但你知道，如果战争结束后的一两年里，流入该地区的资本大幅减少，会怎样呢？是的。

But, you know, what if you had a year or two in the wake of it where there was a significant decrease in the amount of capital flowing into the region Yep.

相对于预期而言？

Relative to what's expected?

这会带来什么连锁反应？

What are the ripple effects of that?

而且，正如你一开始说的，要获得真正可靠的信息很难。

And, you know, it's hard to get really good information from what you said in the beginning.