为什么在洛杉矶修建人行横道如此荒诞

别等头条新闻了。

Don't wait for headlines.

在彭博新经济论坛上实时观看新闻的展开，论坛将于10月13日至15日在新德里直播。

Watch the news unfold in real time at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum live from New Delhi, October 13 through the fifteenth.

当全球领导人齐聚一堂，共同应对塑造我们未来的重大议题，从地缘政治、全球贸易到科技和世界新的力量平衡，你将拥有最前排的座位，观看这些最重要的对话。

As global leaders come together to tackle the biggest issues shaping our future from geopolitics and global trade to technology and the world's new balance of power, you'll have a front row seat to the conversations that matter most.

请访问bloombergneweconomy.com观看直播。

Watch live at bloombergneweconomy.com.

网址是bloombergneweconomy.com。

That's bloombergneweconomy.com.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

电台。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

大家好，欢迎收听Odd Lots播客的又一期现场节目。

Hello, and welcome to another live episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

我是乔·韦森塔尔。

I'm Joe Weisenthal.

我是特蕾西·阿洛韦。

And I'm Tracy Allaway.

我们现在在好莱坞的佛蒙特剧院，说到好莱坞，当然也得聊聊房地产行业。

So we're here at the Vermont Theatre in Hollywood, and of course, you talk about Hollywood, but you also have to talk about the real estate industry.

我们知道这里一直是房地产行业的热门中心，但经济发展和住房市场的变化，在这里又是怎么体现的呢？

We know this has always been a hub, a booming real estate industry, but what do the changes in economic development and the housing market, how does it manifest itself here?

没错。

That's right.

今天我们给大家准备了一个特别的节目。

So we have a real treat for you.

我们将要采访一位住宅房地产界的传奇人物，他在2008年之前就预测到了次贷泡沫，而且更重要的是，在2008年之后又准确预测了房市的底部。

We're gonna be speaking to an absolute legend in the world of residential real estate, someone who actually called the subprime bubble before 2008, and maybe even more importantly, called the bottom of the housing market after 2008.

然后我们还会采访一位商业地产界的新秀，他在洛杉矶做着创新的事情，基本上是在打造一个新的社区。

And then we're also gonna be speaking to a relative newcomer in the world of commercial property, someone who's doing new things in LA and trying to develop basically a new neighborhood.

那么，请享受我们与传奇人物比尔·麦克布莱德（来自Calculated Risk）以及房地产开发商、西部公司创始人扎克·拉斯里的对话。

So enjoy our conversation with the legend, Bill McBride of Calculated Risk, as well as Zach Lasry, real estate developer, founder of The Western Company.

非常感谢两位。

Thank you both so much.

扎克，你是做什么的？

Zach, what do you what do you do?

你的工作是什么？

What's your job?

我是一名房地产专业人士。

I'm a real estate professional.

好的。

Okay.

那是什么意思？

What does that mean?

因为很多人都会这么说。

Because there are a lot of people who could say those words.

所以我在西方公司的目标，我们的目标是，能说‘我是房地产专业人士’这句话，

So my goal with the Western Company, the goal that we have is that being able to say I'm a real estate professional Okay.

比平时听起来更让人兴奋。

Is more exciting than it it normally is.

我来自戏剧和表演背景，我注意到的是，我在洛杉矶看到的开发项目，大约在2014年搬到了这里。

So I come from a theater and acting background, and what I noticed was the developments that I was seeing in Los Angeles moved here in about 2014.

对。

Okay.

你知道，在银湖、回声公园或高地公园，会突然出现一个非常令人兴奋的社区。

You know, you'd have a really exciting neighborhood pop up in Silver Lake or Echo Park or Highland Park.

然后所有新的，每当新建筑搭起脚手架时，通常会有一种‘哦，不’的反应。

And then all the new whenever scaffolding would go up for a new building, there's generally a, oh, oh, no.

那会是什么？

What's that gonna be?

但建新楼的时候，你不该有这种反应。

And that's not the reaction that you should have when a new building is being built.

应该让人感到兴奋才对。

There should be some excitement.

那会变成什么样子？

What is that going to be?

什么样的新创意会注入到那栋建筑里？

What kind of new creative spirit is gonna enter into that structure?

我只是觉得商业房地产行业在这方面没那么有启发性。

And I just don't think the commercial real estate industry is that inspiring in that way.

那些结果一直都不太鼓舞人心。

Those outcomes haven't been so inspiring.

所以我们的目标就是给开发注入艺术精神。

So our goal is to sort of infuse development with the arts spirit.

好的。

Alright.

那我要问一个非常洛杉矶的问题，我很想听听你们两位的看法。

So I'm gonna ask a very basic LA question, and I'd be curious to get both your takes on this.

再说，乔之前也提到过，我们来过洛杉矶几次，但我们对这里了解不多。每次我来这里，都会惊讶于独立企业的多样性，跟纽约相比。

And again, Joe gave the caveat earlier, which is we've been to LA a couple of times, but we don't know that much about Whenever I come here, I am sort of stunned by the diversity of independent businesses compared to New York.

我一直在想这个问题，

I think about this all the

确实。

time.

这里有好多夫妻店。

There's so there's so many mom and pop shops.

比如，我来的路上经过一家油毡专卖店，我觉得在纽约根本看不到这种店。

Like, I passed by a linoleum emporium on the way over here, which I just don't think you would ever see in New York.

我猜很多独立企业的发展方向可能不太乐观，但跟其他地方相比，洛杉矶怎么还能有这么多独立企业存活下来呢？还有那些甜甜圈店。

And I'm sure the direction of travel for a lot of independent businesses isn't that great, but how have so many managed to survive in LA so far compared to other places All the doughnuts.

我在纽约上的学，读的纽约大学，我很多最有才华的朋友都离开纽约搬到洛杉矶了，因为纽约实在太贵了。

Well, I went to school in New York, went to NYU, and a lot of my most talented friends left New York and moved to Los Angeles because New York just got too expensive.

对。

And Yeah.

洛杉矶呢，虽然买房贵，但通常能在很棒的街区找到不错的租房。

LA, it's it's while it's expensive to buy a home in LA, you can generally find a good rental deal in a really exciting neighborhood.

在纽约就很难做到这一点，所以在洛杉矶，你可以找到那些专心钻研手艺的人，他们能生存下来，专注于自己的艺术；而在纽约，想专注于自己的手艺同时又能付得起房租，就难多了。

It's a lot harder to do that in New York City, so you have people who are just dedicated to their craft who can survive in LA and focus on their art versus in New York, it's a lot more difficult to be able to focus on your craft while being able to pay rent.

所以我觉得，搬到这儿来的人，更多是那种爱尝试、爱折腾的，他们想在这儿创业，搞点新东西。

So I think you just have more of an experimental experimental group of people who are moving out here and who exist and trying to start and create new ideas.

比尔，你怎么看？

Bill, thoughts?

嗯，我还想说说密度的问题。

Well, I would also address the density issue.

纽约人口密度很高，所以特定地段的租金自然就高。

In New York, you have really high density, and therefore you're gonna have high rent for a for a particular location.

在这里，我们真的很分散。

Here, we're really spread out.

顺便说一句，这也是个问题。

Which is an issue, by the way.

你知道，我们应该解决洛杉矶的分区问题，因为我们不能永远这么分散，或者像现在这样分散。

We we, you know, we should address zoning in in LA because we can't stay spread out forever or as as spread out as we are.

但我认为这就是为什么你能看到那么多夫妻店，这很棒。

But I think that's a reason that you see so many mom and pop shops, which is great.

你知道，在我住的社区，我就住在太平洋海岸公路旁边，大部分商店都是夫妻店。

You know, in my community, I live right off PCH, Pacific Coast Highway, and the most of the stores are mom and pops.

也有一些连锁餐厅之类的，但你知道，我认为这就是密度带来的。

There are some chain restaurants and stuff, but so, you know, I think I think it's the density that

我得说，我谈过这个。

I have to say, I've talked about this.

我喜欢购物中心。

I love strip malls.

我特别喜欢看到那种，比如韩国餐厅旁边就是美白牙齿的店，再旁边是电子烟店，再旁边是空手道学校，对我来说，那种感觉特别棒，我超爱开车看这些。

I love, like, seeing, like, Korean restaurant next to the tooth whitening place, next to the vape shop, next to the karate school, next to the like, to me, like, that's, like, one of my fave I love driving.

真的是多用途开发。

Truly multi use development.

但是，Zach，当你在想，好吧，你想要建一栋真正让人兴奋的建筑，而不是那种‘唉，又是一栋楼’的感觉。

But, Zach, when you're thinking about, okay, you want this to be you wanna create a building that actually get people excited rather than, ugh, another building.

那需要哪些要素呢？

What are the ingredients to that?

我觉得你得专注于……我们找租户的方式，有点像24找电影导演那样。

I think you have to be focused on so the way that we're trying to approach finding tenants, we like to think of it like almost like how a 24 tries to find filmmakers.

好的。

Okay.

所以，我们怎么找到有愿景的人呢？

So how can we find someone who has a vision?

我们不是要找另一家Shake Shack。

We're not trying to find another Shake Shack.

是的。

I mean Yeah.

谢谢。

Thanks.

Shake Shack确实很棒。

So Shake Shack's awesome.

我在机场的时候很喜欢去Shake Shack，但其他地方就不一定需要了。

I love going to Shake Shack when I'm at the airport, but I don't necessarily need Shake Shack everywhere else.

所以我觉得，当人们尝试新事物，甚至挑战糕点的极限时，大家会兴奋得多。

So I think people get a lot more excited when people are trying new things and are trying to test the limits of even pastries.

不管是什么，如果你对某件事充满热情，那份热情通常会转化成令人兴奋的新成果。

Whatever it is, if you're passionate about a thing, then that passion usually translates into an exciting new result.

这就是我们寻找租户的方式。

So that's how we approach trying to find tenants.

你怎么看待品味和盈利能力之间的权衡，如果有的话？

How do you think about the trade off, if there is one, between taste and I guess profitability?

因为我想到的是24。

Because I think about a 24.

24拍了很多好电影。

A 24 makes a bunch of really good movies.

有很多好电影不一定赚很多钱，不幸的是，有些赚很多钱的电影，你知道，就是漫威那种超级英雄片，一遍又一遍地重复，就像我们和Hayes讨论的那样。

There are a lot of good movies out there that don't necessarily make a lot of money, and unfortunately, some of the movies that make a lot of money are, you know, Marvel superhero things that are the same thing over and over as we were discussing with Hayes.

但是，在房地产方面，你怎么把品味变成实际的利润呢？

But, like, how do you turn taste into actual profit when it comes to property?

嗯，房地产的幸运之处在于，即使租户失败了，虽然很遗憾，但房地产本身仍然保值，通常会有新租户进来。

Well, lucky thing about real estate is even if the tenant fails, which is sad, but the the real estate still maintains its value and then a new tenant generally will come in.

这不像电影，如果没人看，你就只能把亏损一笔勾销。

It's not like a movie where if no one sees the movie, you just write off the loss.

所以房地产即使遇到失败，通常也能保值。

So the real estate generally retains its value even if there's a failure.

Bill，你提到了分区，我们有很多关于分区的讨论，但你知道，人们会争论，哦，这是住宅区吗？

Bill, you mentioned zoning, and one of the questions, you know, there's we've had a lot of conversations about zoning, but, you know, people fight about, oh, is this is this residential?

这是商业用途吗？

Is this business?

等等之类的。

Etcetera.

从你的角度来看，当我们想解决这个难题，想实现可负担性，想让这里充满活力的时候。

From your perspective, like, when you think about we wanna crack the puzzle, we wanna make affordability, etcetera, we want this to be lively.

在你的研究中，把监管这块做对有多重要？

In your research, how important is, like, getting that regulatory piece of the puzzle correct?

嗯，你去问问住宅建筑商或公寓建筑商，他们会说这是最重要的部分。

Well, you talk to the home builders or the apartment builders, it's the biggest piece.

好的。

Okay.

所以我觉得改变分区规定很关键，你知道，我们在加州已经通过了一些措施。

So I think getting zoning changed, I mean, you know, we've passed some things in California.

我们加州已经……

We California has.

但是ADU的法律，对。

But the ADU laws Yeah.

ADU在加州的很多地方确实发展得很快。

They're ADUs are really taking off in a lot of parts of California.

现在唯一的问题是

Now it's only the only problem is

就是这对住房存量的增加很小，但你知道，真正的分区改革真的很难。

is that's a small increase to the the housing stock, but, you know, actual zoning is really changing zoning is really hard.

你知道，他们已经在交通枢纽附近做了一些事情，可以建更高密度的住房。

You know, they they they have done some things like near transport centers, you can build a lot higher density.

我们加州正处于官方住房危机中。

One of the things that we're in an official housing crisis in California.

所以我觉得我们还在危机中。

So I I think we're still in it.

他们四五年前就宣布了，而且不允许降低密度。

They announced it four or five years ago, and they and you weren't allowed to reduce density.

所以如果你买了一栋六单元的公寓楼，你不能把它改成四个公寓单元。

So if you if you bought a a six unit apartment building, you couldn't build four condos.

或者在我住的地方，当时的情况是有钱人会把两三栋相邻的房子买下来。

Or in my community, what was happening was people with all kinds of money were buying two or three homes in a row

然后建一栋真正的豪宅，不是那种仿豪宅。

and and building a real mansion, not a McMansion.

而且他们已经禁止这种做法了。

And and they've stopped that.

因为实际上密度在下降，尤其是在。

So because because density was actually decreasing in

海滩社区那边，你知道，这跟我们需要的方向正好相反。

the in the beach communities, which, you know, is kind of the opposite of of what we

我们其实需要增加密度。

kind of need.

我这么说其实有点违背我自己的利益。

And I'm speaking a little bit against my own interest in

因为这样交通会更拥堵，而且

that because we'll have more traffic and

等等。

so on.

你为了你的公共

You for your public

投标。

bid.

顺便说一下，补充一下扎克的观点，我和他聊的时候，我觉得他做的事情特别有价值的一点是，他把一个区域打造成一个社区，让它变得像——你走进那个社区，就像走进一场交响乐一样。

By by the way, just to add to Zach's comment, when I'm talking with him, I think one of the the things that really adds value to what he's doing is he's taking an area and building it into a community and and and making it kind of like a you go into that community and it's like a symphony.

而且，你知道吗，我觉得这个想法特别令人兴奋，不只是建一栋楼——很多人都是这么做的——而是他们拿了好几栋楼，试图打造一个完整的社区，有新的餐厅，还有真正的愿景。

And and, you know, I that's I thought it was an incredibly exciting idea to not just build one building, which is what a lot of people do, but they are taking multiple buildings and trying to build a whole community with new restaurants and a real vision for that.

我觉得这会产生很大的影响。

I think that will, you know, that will have a real big impact.

但是扎克，再多说一点。

But Zach, say more about that.

那么，当你在一个社区里买下多栋建筑，把那些开发项目集中起来，而不是像在城里各处挑几处房产那样，会发生什么呢？

So what happens when you're buying multiple buildings in a single neighborhood and sort of aggregating those developments versus maybe just like cherry picking a few properties that are scattered across the city?

是的，我们在Western和Melrose做的这个项目的想法，主要来自一本书，简·雅各布斯的《美国大城市的死与生》。

So yes, the the idea for what we're doing on Western And Melrose came mostly from reading this book, The Death and Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs.

好书。

Great books.

她谈到了格林威治村的人行道芭蕾。

And she was talking about the sidewalk ballet in Greenwich Village.

我在纽约长大，亲眼见过那种景象。格林威治村是最让人兴奋的街区之一，你随便走走，什么都不用做，就能感受到文化，因为光是存在就能体验到文化。那是我一直觉得洛杉矶缺少的东西。

And growing up in New York City, I'd seen that first hand Greenwich Village is one of the most exciting neighborhoods to just walk around and do nothing because you're experiencing culture by just existing, and that was the one thing I always felt like was missing in Los Angeles.

洛杉矶有一些这样很棒的主街，但很少。

There are a few of these great main streets in LA, but there's very few.

而且一般来说，即使有，最后往往变成了机场式的购物中心，这真的很让人失望。说到分区，纽约基本上都是混合用途的。

And generally when they exist, they end up sort of turning into airport shopping malls eventually, and that's just very disappointing because speaking of zoning, New York is basically all mixed use.

所以，如果有一条街，我是说曼哈顿现在太贵了，独立生意很难做，但有一段时间，即使一条街上有很多连锁店，你也能去旁边的小街，看到一些有趣的东西。

So if there's a street, I mean Manhattan at this point is so expensive that it's hard to have independent businesses, but for a while, even if there were a lot of chains on one street, could go to a side street and see something interesting.

洛杉矶可没这么奢侈，因为大约95%的城市区域都是住宅区。

LA doesn't have the luxury of doing that because roughly 95 percent of the city is residentially zoned.

所以如果一个社区的主街失去了所有的文化和活力，那就真的没了。

So if if you have a community that has their main street, have all of the culture and life taken out of it, then that's it.

你周围全是住宅区，就什么都没有了。

You you got you got nothing because it's just residential around you.

你知道吗，有时候推特上会有人争论哪些城市最适合步行。

You know, sometimes there are these fights on Twitter where they talk about, like, what are the best, most walkable cities.

然后就会有人说，哦，纽约非常适合步行。

And it's like, oh, New York is very very walkable.

接着又有人说，哦，洛杉矶垫底。

And then there's like, oh, LA is at the bottom.

不过这里的天气总是那么好。

Except it's always so nice, the weather out here.

我不介意走一个小时。

I don't mind walking an hour.

所以实际上，我完全觉得洛杉矶是个很适合步行的城市，因为我从来不用担心天气。

So I'm actually totally I actually think LA is a great walking city because I never have to worry about the weather.

我觉得它是最适合步行的城市之一。

I think it's one of the most walkable city.

在这里走路真的很舒服。

It's so pleasant to walk here.

但是我能

But can I

不能吗？

No?

我喜欢在这里走路，但确实不，我想，应该

I love walking here, but it does not I guess, supposed

你会走

You'll be walking

一段

for a

很长时间。

long time.

那挺好的。

It's great.

我喜欢在这里长时间散步，我在洛杉矶走过很多次长路。

I love walking for a long time here, I've taken many long walks in LA.

但我知道这并不符合大多数人所说的“适合步行”的标准。

But I know it does not meet what most people are talking about when they say walkable.

资本市场的竞争是新的重心，达拉斯。

The competition in capital markets is a new center of gravity, Dallas.

10月27日，加入彭博投资达拉斯，我们将汇聚领先的交易所运营商、财富管理机构、私募市场领导者和政策制定者，共同探讨改变全球金融的趋势。

On October 27, join Bloomberg Invest Dallas as we convene leading exchange operators, wealth managers, private market leaders, and policymakers to examine the trends transforming global finance.

向那些塑造投资、市场和经济发展未来的人学习。

Learn from the people shaping what's next in investing, markets, and the economy.

支持赞助商，纽约证券交易所德克萨斯州。

Supporting sponsor, NYSE Texas.

更多信息请访问bloomberglive.com/investdallasradio。

Learn more at bloomberglive.com/investdallasradio.

网址是bloomberglive.com/investdallasradio。

That's bloomberglive.com/investdallasradio.

好的。

Okay.

你有这样的愿景，这样的社区，等等。

You have this vision, this community, etcetera.

目前你的业务受到多大影响？

How much right now is your business being affected?

或者当你考虑这些时，你有多在意我们之前和Hayes讨论的那些不利因素？

Or how much when you're thinking about this, are you thinking about the headwinds that we talked about with Hayes right before?

有一个非常大的行业正在衰退，这如何影响你对业务和机会的看法？

The fact that there is this very big industry that is on the decline, and how does that make you think about the business, the set the opportunity set?

所以我认为商业房地产行业现在确实很艰难，是的。

So I think the commercial real estate industry is having a really tough time Yeah.

因为很长一段时间以来，我们靠金融工程来赚钱，而现在金融环境对这些金融工程出来的结果不太有利。

Because for a long time we've been able to make money by financially engineering outcomes and now the financial conditions are not super great for those financial engineered outcomes.

你没法通过资本化率和利率的套利来赚钱了。

You can't get a cap rate and an interest rate arbitrage and make money.

你没法把一堆智商140的人关在房间里，做做电子表格，就能在利率高于你按资本化率买入大楼的价格时找到赚钱的办法。

You can't throw a bunch of people in a room of 140 IQ and do some spreadsheets and figure out how to make money when the interest rates are higher than what you bought the building for on a cap rate.

所以现在你真的得把产品做好。

So now you actually have to make the product good.

我明白你的意思。

I see what you're saying.

我觉得我们做的事情真正令人兴奋的地方在于，我们看到了租金在上涨，因为我认为我们通过投资人才打造了一个非常令人兴奋的产品。

And I think that's what's really exciting about what we're doing is we're seeing rents increase where we are because I think we've made a really exciting product by investing in talent.

洛杉矶有很多新的公寓楼，我觉得没多少人会到处说，哇，这真是个漂亮又酷的新公寓楼。

There's a lot of new apartment buildings in LA that I don't think many people go around going, wow, that's such a beautiful cool new apartment building.

我觉得大多数人都会想，天哪，又来一栋那种无聊的千篇一律的公寓楼。

I think most people are like, oh god, not another one of those boring generic apartment buildings.

所以我觉得商业地产行业，现在如果想赚钱，真的得做出好产品。

So I think the commercial real estate industry, now we have to actually make good products if we wanna make money.

好，说到做好产品，我了解到你们开发项目的一部分是在建设城市基础设施。

Okay, so speaking of making good products, I read one of the things you're doing as part of your developing is you're building city infrastructure as well.

比如安装人行横道之类的。

So installing things like crosswalks.

在洛杉矶建一个人行横道是什么流程？

What's the process of creating a crosswalk in LA?

就像卡夫卡的小说一样。

It's like a Kafka novel.

简直太折磨人了。

It's just horrible.

跟我们多讲讲。

And tell us more.

哦，收到一封特别棒的邮件。

Oh, got a great email.

我们在克林顿和西部那条街的人行横道获批了，但说要等好几年甚至更久才能建好。

We got approved for a crosswalk on Clinton And Western, and it said it'll be built in a few years or more.

那就像……等等。

That's like Wait.

是什么限制？

What's the constraint?

就是说，到底是什么在拖延？

Like, what is the actual hold up?

你觉得拖延的原因是什么？

What's your sense of the hold up?

他们其实没有什么正规的申请流程。

They there's no really process to get one.

你得自己掏钱。

You can you have to pay for it.

他们就说，哦，对。

That's they're like, oh, yeah.

我们会完全批准你的申请，但费用是一百万美元。

We'll we'll totally approve that for you, but it's gonna cost a million dollars.

然后我们就说，就为了装一个红绿灯？

And then we're like, just to put a a stop, like a a light?

他们就说，工程、电气，然后还得在地下建一个保险库。

And they're like, well, the engineering, the electrical, and then you gotta go put a vault underneath for us.

所以感觉他们就是在问，你能为我们做什么？

So it's like they're like, what are you gonna do for us?

有意思。

Interesting.

想到几年就过去了，真有趣。

It's funny to think a few years are up.

这让我想起小时候，我收集黑胶唱片，你会看到那些99美分和更贵的箱子。

It reminds me of when I used to, as a young kid, like, be a vinyl record collector, and you'd see the 99¢ and up bins.

然后就像，这个箱子就是装那些的，对。

And it's like, so this is the bin that contain it could yeah.

在99美分起价的箱子里，你也能找到价值100美元的黑胶唱片。

You could have a $100 record in the 99¢ and up bins.

我真的很想知道，比尔。

It was truly I'm curious, Bill.

你跟那些房屋建筑商聊过。

You talked to the home builders.

他们是不是已经更有产品思维了？

Have they become more of the product mindset?

比如说，他们是不是也朝着同样的方向走，就像，好吧。

Like, do they are they going in the same direction where it's like, okay.

光有一个总体规划的社区什么的已经不够了。

It's not just good enough to have, like, a master plan community or something.

我们得把独立住宅看作一个吸引人的产品，而不只是一个住的地方。

We have to think about the freestanding home as a desirable product rather than just a place to live.

现在已经有这种想法了吗？

Is that a thing yet?

嗯，你知道，我接触的大多数建筑商都是做填充式开发的。

Well, you know, most of the home builders that I speak to are are infill builders.

我也和一些大型建筑商聊过，他们最关心的一点是，他们之前非常看好建后出租模式。

I do talk to some of the larger builders that the number one thing I've heard from them is their concern they were really into the build to rent model.

对。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

但现在这个模式有点压力了。

And that's kind of under pressure right now.

至于建社区，我觉得他们还是坚持做总体规划社区。

As far as building a community, still think they're sticking with their master plan.

明白

Got

了。

it.

听他这么说人行横道的事挺有意思的，因为政策、分区和监管问题是我从房屋建筑商那里听到的头号问题。

It's interesting to hear him say that about the crosswalk because policy and zoning and regulatory issues are the number one thing hear from home builders.

他们都有同样的感受，不管经济好坏，这始终是他们最关心的问题。

They all feel right across of course, good times, bad times, that's always their number one issue.

我还有一个关于洛杉矶的基本问题。

I have another basic LA question.

尽管乔说这是个适合步行的城市，但很多人

Despite what Joe says about this being a walkable city, lots of

还是开车，对吧？

people drive, right?

这意味着如果你做商业开发，就必须有停车位，对吧？

Which means you have to have parking if you're doing a commercial development, right?

每个人都需要到达那里。

Everyone needs to get there.

而且在

And at the

同时，我想如果城市里大片区域都是停车场，那对于打造社区，甚至可能对于盈利来说，都不太有吸引力。

same time, I imagine having huge portions of the city as designated parking lots is not that attractive if you're trying to create a neighborhood or maybe even if you're trying to produce profit.

你觉得在停车场和打造一个有很多漂亮建筑的美丽社区之间，怎么权衡呢？

How do you think about the trade off between parking versus, you know, creating a beautiful neighborhood with many tasteful buildings?

这绝对是我最大的盲点，因为我大部分时间都住在纽约，不怎么开车。

It's definitely my biggest blind spot because I didn't drive for most of my life living in New York.

所以来自洛杉矶的人总是问我停车的情况。

So people who are from LA are always asking me what the parking situation is.

我就想，你们为什么老问我停车的事？

And I'm like, why do you keep asking me about parking?

你们不想知道有什么好餐厅吗？

Don't you wanna know, like, what the restaurants are?

他们就说，那我车停哪儿啊？

And they're like, well, where am I gonna park?

我有一个来自洛杉矶的朋友，他会先停好车，然后我们往北走半个街区，他就会下车。

I had a friend I have a friend from LA who would who will park and then we're going half a block north and he'll get out.

他会开车，然后把车停在北边半个街区外。

He'll drive his car and then park half a block north.

哇。

Wow.

但也不是。

But it no.

这确实是个事儿。

It's a it's a thing.

这确实是个事儿。

It's a thing.

特别是如果你有孩子，你得把他们放进安全座椅，再把他们抱出来。

Especially if you have kids, like, you gotta get them in the car seats, get them out of the car seats.

所以如果停不了车，比如费尔法克斯那边停车简直糟透了，有时候停车太难我就不去那家店了，但如果有代客泊车的话还能凑合。

So if you if you can't park, it's like, Fairfax is, like, just horrendous parking, and sometimes it'll not go to the business if the parking's that bad, but you can can make it work with valet.

让我补充一下

Let me let me add

这里也补充一点。

something here too.

当然。

Sure.

你知道，我之前提到过ADU，还有

You know, I mentioned the ADUs and

对，而且ADU的数量确实增加了一些，但其中一个

that and that they have picked up a little bit, but one of

关于ADU的规定是，你不需要提供路边停车位。

the rules with the ADUs is you don't have to have off street parking.

哦，所以在很多建了大量ADU的社区，街道上停满了车。

Oh, So what's happening in a lot of the communities where they are building a lot of ADUs is the streets are just packed.

比以前更糟糕了。

So even worse than they were before.

所以，你知道，在我们真正拥有自动驾驶汽车，大家都不需要再拥有汽车之前，停车仍然是个大问题。

So you know, until we get real self driving cars and nobody has to have a car anymore, you know, parking is a huge issue.

韩国城的停车情况可能是地球上最糟糕的之一。

Koreatown is one of the craziest parking situations, maybe on the planet.

真的吗？

Really?

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

人们会发现根本没有车位。

People will there'll be no spots.

我妻子在韩国城住过一段时间。

My my wife lived in Koreatown for a little while.

然后有些人整天坐在那里，一旦有人离开，他们就开始协调怎么把那些车位都占下来。

And then there's people who are like just sitting there all day, and then once someone leaves, they're like coordinating how to get all the spots.

所以韩国城挺糟糕的。

So Koreatown's pretty rough.

但我确实认为有了自动驾驶汽车，停车问题会变得不那么重要。

But I do think with self driving cars, parking will become less important.

不会吧。

No.

我对这个问题特别感兴趣，因为就像车把你送到公司，然后自己开到某个集中的停车场去。

I'm fascinated by this question because it's like the car drives you to work and then goes to some centralized lot.

我想做一系列节目，因为这可能会彻底改变城市的布局和组织方式。

Like, I wanna do, like, a bunch of episodes because it could just end up meaningfully restructuring cities and how they're organized.

让我先打断你一下。

Let me just interrupt you quickly.

这也会改变房子的外观。

It also would change the way houses look.

因为现在很多社区，前面都有车库，而且特别难看。

Because right now in a lot of communities, you got these garages in front and they're really ugly.

你知道，如果这些车库都没了，那该多好。

You know, and and it'd be really nice if those all went away.

还有，我哥跟我提过，最大的变化之一当然是自动驾驶会让警察和人的互动大幅减少。

And and and my brother pointed out to me one of the biggest changes, of course, would be self driving would be play police interactions go way down.

所以，是的。

So Yes.

还有，抱歉。

It also sorry.

这也意味着超速罚单的收入会大幅减少。

Means also means lower speeding ticket revenue for lot.

各种罚单都不会再有了，这将会……

There are all kinds of not there are gonna be no speeding ticket tickets anymore, which is gonna

我希望这在我有生之年能实现。

hurt I hope this happens in my lifetime.

很多时候都是这样。

Of a lot of the time.

我有个问题。

I have a question.

你知道吗，这个问题我可能在2021年或2022年一开始就会问，但后来就淡忘了。

You know, this is this is a question that I probably would have asked very first off in, like, 2021 or 2022, then it faded.

但我现在很好奇，找建筑材料或者暖通设备，或者电力变压器这些，到底有多难？

But I'm curious now, how hard is it to, like, find construction materials or, like, HVAC things or all or the electricity Transformers.

因为我们现在知道，这些东西的竞争非常激烈。

Like, because what now we know there's incredible competition for a lot of that stuff.

这有没有影响到你们的开发进度？

Is that showing up in your development timelines?

变压器。

Transformers.

那现在的情况是……

So what's happening up with

你得去抢。

You gotta fight for it.

那这到底是什么意思呢？

What does that actually mean though?

你是要付更高的价格，还是说……大家总是说要跟供应商搞好关系。

Do you pay a higher price or do you I don't everyone always talks about building the relationship with the supplier.

你要成为他们的好朋友吗？

Do you become their best friend?

怎么

How do

你说的“争取”是什么意思？

what does fight for it mean?

你得找一个认识人的人。

You gotta find a guy who knows a

认识人的人。

guy.

找到那个人。

Find the guy.

然后你得提前买好，找个地方存起来。

And then you gotta buy it in advance and then store it somewhere.

对，就是这样。

It's like yeah.

这就变得有点奇怪了。

It gets weird.

那你是不是有个车库，里面堆满了变压器？

So do you you have a garage just like full of transformers somewhere?

也许吧。

I might.

没有。

No.

比如，当你

Like, when you

就像那样，那可是很值钱的，特蕾西会把它加进她的储备清单里。

were like that's a very valuable Tracy's gonna add that to her prepper.

作为我的同行，作为我的同行储备者。

My fellow as my as my fellow prepper.

我得有个装满变压器的车库。

I gotta have a garage full of transformers.

也得这么做。

Gotta do too.

长远来看，人们总是会喜欢住

Long term, people are always gonna love living

在这附近。

around here.

我是说，我们可以聊聊，对，好莱坞。

I mean, we can talk about, like, yeah, Hollywood.

当然。

Sure.

但这里就像是人间天堂。

But, like, this is, like, heaven on earth here.

这里是上帝眷顾的地方。

This is God's country.

说到底，这里永远都会很好。

Like, in the end, like, it's always gonna be great.

这就是我在洛杉矶的那套房子。

That's my LA set.

我觉得洛杉矶是所有城市里潜力最大的。

I I think I think Los Angeles is has the highest ceiling of any city in

全世界。

the world.

我完全同意。

I completely agree.

我特别看好洛杉矶。

I'm such an LA bull.

我们有两个问题。

We we have we have two problems.

一个是住房成本，这个我们需要解决，另一个是水。

One one is the cost of housing, which we need to address, and the other is water.

加州的水问题非常严重。

Water water in California is a huge, huge issue.

还有一个话题我们可以聊很久，但Bill和Zach，非常感谢你们来参加Odd Lots Live。

Another topic we could talk for a long time, but Bill and Zach, thank you so much for joining us at Odd Lots Live.

真的很感谢你们俩跟我们聊天。

I really appreciate you chatting with both of you.

以上就是我们与Bill McBride和Zach Lasry的对话，在洛杉矶现场录制。

That was our conversation with Bill McBride and Zach Lasry, recorded live in LA.

我是Tracy Allaway。

I'm Tracy Allaway.

你可以在TracyAllaway关注我。

You can follow me at TracyAllaway.

我是Jill Weisenthal。

And I'm Jill Weisenthal.

你可以在The Stalwart关注我。

You can follow me at The Stalwart.

关注我们的制作人Carmen Rodriguez，账号是CarmenArmud，DashOBennett，账号是Dashbot，Kale Brooks，账号是Kale Brooks，还有Kevin Lozano，账号是Kevin Lloyd Lozano。

Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmud DashOBennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano.

想了解更多Odd Lots的内容，可以看看我们的每日通讯。

And for more Odd Lots content, you should check out our daily newsletter.

你可以在bloomberg.com/oddlots找到它。

You can find that at bloomberg.com/oddlots.

你还可以在我们的Discord上聊所有这些话题，包括房地产，discord。

And you can chat about all of these topics, including real estate, in our Discord, discord.

Ggodd Lots。

Ggodd Lots.

如果你喜欢这次对话，请留下评论或点赞视频，或者更好的是，订阅我们。

If you enjoyed this conversation, then please leave a comment or like the video, or better yet, subscribe.

感谢观看和收听。

Thanks for watching and listening.

人工智能正进入其最关键阶段，规模、安全和主权将决定谁领先谁落后。

AI is entering its most consequential phase where scale, safety, and sovereignty will determine who leads and who lags.

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Join Bloomberg Tech in London on November second and third as global leaders across business, finance, and policy examine the defining trade offs shaping the future of AI.