对冲基金经理阿利克斯·帕斯凯：小型基金如何智胜多管理人基金

我敢打赌，Visa或万事达肯定在他们的投资组合里。

I'm like, I bet you like a $100 to a hat pin that Visa or MasterCard are in that portfolio.

没错，确实如此。

And yes, it is.

而且这已经不是什么秘密了。

And like the cat's out of the bag.

我们知道，高质量的企业在一定的年限内会有一定的回报。

We know that high quality businesses over a certain period of years are going to have a certain return.

但你知道今年发生了什么吗？

But guess what happened this year?

你知道，优质股大幅下跌，跌得很惨，那些长期持有的人，可能需要几年甚至五年才能缓过来。

You know, quality took a dive and a really big one and you have guys that are long lonely, it's going to take them a couple of years if not five years to dig themselves out of that.

是的，这将会很痛苦。

Yeah, it's going to be painful.

所以这些主题非常重要。

So those thematics are very important.

我觉得这里的关键洞察是，主题本身强大并不是重点，重点是当两个主题碰撞在一起时，它们才会真正产生巨大的力量。

I think the insight there that matters is, it's not that a theme is powerful, is that when two themes collide, they're really powerful.

正是在这种碰撞中，才会催生出像查理·芒格所说的“Lollapalooza效应”（即多种因素共同作用产生的极端结果）的企业，从而在商业或行业中涌现出惊人的爆发力，这也是你能赚到大钱的地方。

And that's where it creates businesses that could have what Charlie Munger called a Lollapalooza effect, where this incredible emergence comes out of the business or the industry and that's where you can make a lot of money.

一个典型的例子就是人口老龄化与机器人技术的结合。

One example of that is the aging of the population of robotics.

我们实际上认为，首批优秀的机器人产品，将是那些能为全球老年人提供解决方案的产品。

We actually believe that some of the first good robotics products are going to be products that have solutions for the elderly globally actually.

所以我们聊了聪明人，也聊了主题投资，还聊了如何通过CEO来寻找投资机会。

So we covered smart people, we covered thematics, we cover the CEOs for idea generation.

最后一点，现在全球有50场大型会议，你不可能全都去参加，但你至少应该去个六七场到十几场。

And last, there are 50 global conferences in the world today and you don't have time to go to all of them, but you should be going at least to half a dozen to a dozen of them.

现在变化真的很多。

There's a lot of change is happening.

我小时候进不去这些会议，就直接溜进去听。

When I was a kid and I couldn't get into these conferences, I'd crashed them literally.

我记得每年都去那个会议，到了签到台，我就说，我没看到我的名牌。

I remember going to the conference every year where I would show up to where the name tag was and I would say, I don't see my name tag.

然后他们态度还挺好的。

And it's really nice.

我就会说，哦，好的，当然，你叫什么名字？

I would call, well, yeah, of course, what's your name?

然后她就写下我的名字，我就进去了。

And then, you know, she wrote my name down and I'd go into the conference.

这样搞了五年之后，那家公司的CEO在主持那个会议，我跟他一起喝酒，他说，你知道吗，我们很喜欢你，每年都看到你，但我们还是不知道你是谁。

And after five years of doing this, the CEO of this company was running the conference, I'm having a drink with them, he's like, you know, by the way, we love you, we see you every year, but we still don't know who you are.

你一直来这儿，我说，其实我一直在混进来的。

You've been coming here, I'm like, well, I've been crashing this.

他说，你为什么要混进来？

He's like, why do you wanna crash this?

我说，因为我从这学到了很多东西。

I was like, well, I learned a lot from this.

其实那是一家私人公司。

It's actually a private company.

我以前从他们那里学到了很多东西。

I used to learn a ton from them.

那些都是我们学来真正去赚钱的东西。

It's all stuff that we would learn to actually go and make money.

所以从产生想法的角度来说，我觉得你得覆盖所有这些不同的方面。

So idea generation wise, I think you have to cover all of these different things.

最后我想说的是，去试用产品。

And last thing that I would say is test products out.

对我来说，最大的乐趣就是去参加会议或者试用一个产品，然后抬头看看这个产品有多出名，知道它有多好，意识到它会火起来。

There's no greater joy for me than going to a conference or trying a product out and looking up to see how well known the product is and knowing how good it is and realizing that this is going to be massive.

找到爆款产品通常从你自己试用开始。

Finding blockbuster products usually starts with you trying them.

还有其他一些因素，比如我的女性朋友们特别擅长发现新点子。

There are also other dynamics, so my female friends are amazing at finding new ideas.

说真的，我们管这叫‘女性测试’。

Seriously, we call the female test.

如果你想找到真正棒的产品，不管是零售、时尚还是其他领域，去问问你的女性朋友。

You want to find out what's a great, great product, whether it's in retail, fashion or others, ask your female friends.

举个例子。

Give an example.

比如Lululemon，很早的时候，我是说不练瑜伽的，虽然我也做过瑜伽，但我当时根本不知道什么是瑜伽服或者运动休闲装之类的东西。

Lululemon, very early on, I mean, I'm not into yoga, I've done yoga, but I didn't know what yoga clothing was or athleisure or anything like that.

我之前有个约会对象问我，你听说过 Lululemon 吗？

There was a girl I was going on a date with, was like, have you heard of this Lululemon?

这对我们来说其实是个挺不错的投资，不过不是 IPO 那会儿投的，是后来投的，还有其他一些项目。

It actually was a pretty good investment for us, not at the IPO by the way, but later on, there's others.

有些品牌几乎没人听说过，而且大多是女性创立的品牌，但你一看就知道很有潜力。

There are other brands that no one's ever heard of, mostly female and then you take a look at it.

我记得第一次听说某个项目的时候……顺便提一下，出于合规考虑，我们通常不太爱聊过去的投资项目或实际的投资细节。

I remember the first time I heard about, we tend to not to like to talk about past investments because of compliance reasons by the way or actual investments.

有一个很有名的加拿大品牌，我们最早是从我一个女性朋友那里听说的，后来我在亚特兰大认识的一位顶级基金经理也跟我推荐它，说值得长期关注，你懂吧？

There's a famous Canadian brand that we first heard about from one of my female friends and then one of the best money managers I know in Atlanta pitched it to me as a long, you know?

所以我就想，等等，先是她告诉我这个，然后我又从我哥们儿那里听到，他是我见过的最会选股的人之一。

So I'm like, wait, first she's telling me this, then I'm hearing it from my buddy who's one of the best stock pickers I've ever met.

然后我就去了苏荷区的那家店，实地看了看。

And then I went down to the store in Soho and took a look at it.

结果发现门口排着长队，我就想，好吧，我们得认真研究一下了。

And I was like, line out the door, okay, we have to do the work.

所以，拓宽视野真的很重要。

So it's very important to actually broaden out.

每次我和实习生在一起，我都会让他们做一件事：拿出你的信用卡账单，或者你父母的也行，明白吗？

Whenever I'm with an intern, one of the things I have them do is take out your credit card statement or your parents, okay?

然后让他们标出那些定期扣款的费用，再看看这些公司是不是上市公司。

And I want you to highlight the recurring charges and then look up to see if they're public companies.

这是一个很好的方法，因为如果你是客户，你就能判断产品好不好；如果你能判断产品好不好，你就能判断这家公司能不能做好，以此类推。

It's a very good way because if you can, if you're a customer, you'll understand if the product can do well, if you understand the product can do well, you understand if the business can do well and so on.

而且是以其他分析师不具备的方式，这也是我们喜欢旅行的原因之一，我觉得这可能是最后一点。

And in ways that other analysts actually won't have, It's one of the reasons why we love to travel, which I think would be the last thing.

如果你是个年轻的分析师，一年至少不旅行两三个月，那你就是在严重地亏待自己。

If you're a young analyst and you're not traveling at least two, three months a year, you're doing yourself a massive disservice.

不是因为这样做你会获得巨大的优势。

Not because you're going to get a massive edge doing it.

我其实觉得你会，但也是因为等你年纪大了、结婚了，你就没法这样做了。

I actually think you are, but also because you won't be able to do it when you're older and married.

你就不能那么频繁地旅行了。

You won't be able to travel as much.

所以你就这样涵盖了想法产生的方面。

So you cover idea generation in that way.

虽然想法产生还有更深层次的方法，但这样开始，你已经覆盖了很多方面，我觉得。

Either there's a way deeper game to idea generation than that, but started that way and you've covered a lot of the bases, I think.

我们还会谈到另一件事，我觉得你提到了关注聪明人在做什么。

Another thing we talk about, and I think you touched on track what smart people are doing.

我经常听你提到另一个观点，就是把别人当作指标。

Another idea I hear you speak about a lot is using people as indicators.

你能稍微聊聊这个吗？

Can you talk a little bit to that?

当然可以。

Sure.

你知道，我们的一个工具就是多空辩论。

So, you know, one of our tools is the bull bear debate.

我们先退一步看。

Let's step back.

有分析工具、信息工具，还有行为工具。

There are analytical tools, there are informational tools, there are behavioral tools.

大多数人说自己有行为优势时，我会说，好，那你展示一下你用的行为工具吧。

Most people when they say they have a behavioral advantage, all right, show me the behavioral tools that you use.

顺便说一句，他们中的大多数所谓的行为优势，其实就是列了一张行为金融的清单，然后按照那个清单来思考。

Most of them, by the way, their behavioral advantage is they have a behavioral finance list of things that they run their thinking through.

行为金融学有个问题，首先，它是学者们提出来的。

One of the problems of behavioral finance is that one, it was come up with by academics.

其次，它是通过测试个人，发现这些人容易犯这些错误。

Two, it was by testing individuals that they figured out that these individuals were prone to doing these things.

但市场的问题在于，市场不是关于个人的，而是关于群体的。

The problem with markets is that markets are not about individuals, they're about groups.

所以，如果你想有行为优势，就要利用群体行为，而不是利用个人行为。

So if you're going to have a behavioral advantage, it's about exploiting group behavior, not about exploiting individual behavior.

我的意思是，别误会，有时候会有一个投资者大量做多，就像我们最近看到的，有一群人利用了那个杠杆动态，但大多数时候，是一群人经历某种群体性狂热，然后他们通过蜂拥买入或卖出某种证券，造成供需失衡。

I mean, don't get me wrong, sometimes you have one investor that's massively long and as we saw recently, there were a bunch of people that exploited that lever dynamic, but most of the time it's going to be a group of people that are experiencing some sort of a group psychosis and then they're causing a supply and then imbalance by either piling into security or piling out of a security.

所以我们用的一个行为工具就是多空辩论，我们很喜欢这个，但不仅仅是因为，如果我们做空某个东西，我们会找个多头来辩论。

So one of the behavioral tools that we use is a bobear debate and we love them, but not only because, so we'll be, if we're short something, let's find a bull to debate.

但有时候，我们甚至会站在多头一边去和另一个做空者辩论，即使我们可能在做空，对吧？

But sometimes we'll actually debate another short seller by taking the bull side, even though we might be short, right?

正是在这些实践中，通过做五六次这样的辩论，你会开始意识到，等等，我错了。

And it's in those practices and doing that by doing five or six of them that you start realizing, wait a second, I'm wrong.

你知道吗，在辩论中，我太执着于这个了，而实际上这在经济上根本不重要，他真正说的才是重要的，对吧？

Know, that in a debate, I'm holding on too tight to this when this clearly doesn't matter economically and what he's actually saying is actually what matters, right?

或者你常常会发现对方是错的，他们坚持自己的论点，不是因为基本面原因，而是因为制度原因、文化原因，或者是因为他们过去经历过的一些事情。

Or often you realize the other person is wrong and they're holding onto their thesis, not because of fundamental reasons, but because of institutional reasons, because of cultural reasons, because of something that happened to them in the past.

如果一个分析师在这个股票上亏过钱，当他再次看这个股票时，他很难把那次亏损从自己的判断中抹去。

If an analyst has lost money on the name and he's looking at it again, it's very hard for him to erase that loss from his judgment.

顺便说一句，如果投资经理也亏过钱，那就更别提了，因为分析师会想，我甚至没法向我的投资经理推荐这个，因为我们在这上面亏过一次。

And by the way, good luck if the PM has lost money in it because the analyst is like, I can't even pitch this to my PM because we lost money in this once.

所以，在人类身上有指标是非常重要的。

So having indicators in human is very important.

而且，当我们认为有问题时，我们会非常坦诚地告诉别人，比如‘我们认为情况是这样的’，至于要不要从中吸取教训，随你便。

And by the way, we're very upfront with people when we think it's like, here's what we think is going on and learn from it or not at your discretion.

但有时候我们错了，我们会承认；有时候别人错了，而我认为在我们的行业里，我们应该高度保持智力上的诚实。

But there's been times when we're wrong and we admit it and there's been times when other people are wrong and we are supposed to be, I think in our business, highly intellectually honest.

在我们的行业里，真正在智力上诚实的人非常非常少。

It's very, very few people that are actually intellectually honest in our business.

有一个非常著名的爆仓事件。

There's a very famous blow up that happened.

我觉得现在可以聊聊了，就是凡利亚制药。

I think we can talk about it now, Valiant Pharmaceuticals.

我看到的一个估计是，对冲基金在凡利亚股票上总共亏了400亿美元。

And one of the estimates I saw was that hedge funds had lost a combined $40,000,000,000 in Valiant stock.

他们亏了这么多。

That's how much they lost.

单只股票亏这么多，数字相当惊人。

That's a very big number on one stock.

到目前为止，我们只看到四份关于凡利亚的复盘报告，也就是说，有对冲基金做了复盘，说明我们为什么在这上面亏钱，以及我们哪里判断错了。

Till now, we only know four postmortems and valiant, meaning hedge funds that have done a postmortem that says, here's why we lost money in this and here's why we were wrong.

大多数人就直接翻篇了。

Most people just move on.

大多数人就直接翻篇了。

Most people just move on.

所以关于指标，我最后想说的一点是，当你作为投资组合经理和投资者，退一步看，你的工具之一就是交叉验证想法。

So the last thing I would say about indicators is when you're, see step back a second, as a portfolio manager and investor, one of your tools is cross referencing ideas.

顺便说一句，虽然我这么做了，但我当时并没有这个术语。

And by the way, even though I did that, I didn't have the term for it.

我在播客上听我最喜欢的投资者之一，Discovery的Rob Citroni说，投资组合经理的一个技能就是交叉验证想法。

I was listening to one of my favorite investors on a podcast, Rob Citroni at discovery, where he says that one of the PM scales is cross referencing an idea.

当你交叉验证一个想法，从各个角度审视它，然后汇总起来，你会从每次单独的对话中学到很多。

And when you cross reference an idea and you get a sort of three sixty review from the idea and you compile, you'll learn a lot from the individual conversations.

当你汇总所有的对话时，你实际上会看到哪些是领先指标，哪些是滞后指标。

When you compile the aggregate conversations, you're actually going to see what was the leading indicators and what were the lagging indicators.

所以这也会让你对时机有个感觉。

So it's also going to give you a sense of timing.

这不是万能的，也会让你发现，等等，有些人的观点是基于过去的。

It's not a panacea, it's also gonna be like, wait, some people, their point of view is the past.

这显然在变化，而另一些人则在向你推销未来。

This is clearly changing and other people they're pitching you the future.

所以指标分析是非常强大的。

So indicator work is very powerful.

教你这个的书叫《远见》——彼得·施瓦茨写的，我记得是。

The book that teaches you that is a book called The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz, I believe.

他在书里给了你一大堆流程和工具，教你怎么做。

And he gives you a whole bunch of processes and tools on how to do that in the book.

你刚才提到了时机这个词，我不禁想起我们之前聊到的DRUCK，他讲时机、用技术分析，还有那个什么来着，流动性？

You just mentioned the word timing there earlier, and I can't help but think back to the earlier part of our conversation where you touched on DRUCK and how he talks about timing, uses technical analysis, and what was it, liquidity?

流动性考量。

Liquidity considerations.

对，流动性考量。

And liquidity considerations.

我忍不住想问：很多人说技术分析完全是扯淡，没用。

I can't help but ask this: a lot of people say technical analysis is complete shit, it's useless.

你怎么看？

What are your thoughts?

说实话，我以前也是这么想的人之一。

You know, I have to admit that I used to be one of these people as well.

以前我觉得那都是些玄乎的东西，真的，我一直觉得什么技术派高手啊、风控专家啊，都是扯淡。

I used to think that it was hocus pocus, you know, I used to believe in the there is no smart technicians, there's no risk technicians and all that stuff.

直到我遇到了两个人，一个是我合伙人，他公开承认自己是做技术分析的；另一个呢，这人特别低调，我不确定他愿不愿意被点名，但咱们就姑且叫他某大型宏观基金的高管吧，他自己私下里也在做投资。

Until I met two people, one is my business partner who was an avowed technician and the other is a, he's a very private person, so I don't know he would like to be named, but let's just say he's a partner at a major macro fund and has his own private investing gig on the side.

这两个人都从行为金融学的角度给我解释了技术分析。

And both of them explain technical analysis to me in a behavioral lens.

重点不在于挑股票，而是帮你弄明白市场上那些实际在交易的人到底在想什么、在做什么。

And it wasn't about picking stocks, but it was about helping you explain what was going on with the other market participants out there that were actually trading this thing.

做技术分析非常重要，尤其是在2022年之后的市场环境下，因为你知道谁在用技术分析吗？

And it's very important to be a technician, especially in a post 2022 market, because you know who uses technical analysis?

是算法、量化基金和那些对冲基金，你懂的。

The algorithms, quant funds, the pods, you know?

所以如果你持有的股票跌破了某个关键技术位，你得有足够的定力扛住，因为它往往会暴跌，跌幅比你想象的还要大。

So if you're in a stock and it breaks a sort of technical level, you better have the staying power because it is going to crash and go down even more than you actually think.

所以在我们看来，技术分析至关重要。

So technical analysis is paramount in our opinion.

而且说实话，现在听到那些特别聪明的人说“我不做技术分析”，没有比这更让人开心的了。

And by the way, now there is no greater competitive pleasure than hearing really, really smart people say, I don't do technical analysis.

所以我们特别喜欢听到这种话。

So we love to hear that.

我不会用它来产生投资想法。

I would not use it for idea generation.

你看，德鲁并没有说他只用技术分析。

You see, drug didn't say I only use technical analysis.

他说他用技术分析和流动性考量，但你放心，他肯定也有基本面观点。

He says I use technical analysis and liquidity considerations, but you bet your bottom dollar, he also has a fundamental point of view as well.

所以你必须用技术分析，必须考虑流动性，必须做基本面研究，必须做行为分析，还要建立所谓的行业里的“马赛克优势”，真的。

So you gotta use technical analysis, you gotta use liquidity considerations, you gotta use fundamental work, you gotta use behavioral work, you gotta set up what's called in the industry a mosaic advantages really.

有时候我们对技术分析还有一种神秘的感觉，但这不是宗教意义上的神秘，而是指护城河那种神秘。

Sometimes we have another mystical sense of technical analysis, but not mystical in terms of religious, mystical in terms of moats.

如果一家企业有护城河，而且护城河还在扩大，那么市场先生会感受到这一点，图表就会是这样。

If a business has a moat and the moat is expanding, Mrs.

市场先生会感受到这一点，图表就会是这样。

Market feels that and that chart is gonna be like this.

不可能有一家企业护城河维持了几十年，而图表却是那样的。

There's no such thing as a business having a moat for decades and the chart is like that.

所以股价是这样的，而大多数价值投资者——顺便说一句，我是从你的角度来说的，不知道在镜头里看起来怎么样——他们喜欢买那种走势平缓的股票，它下跌了，他们就想在这里买入。

So the stock is like this and most value investors actually, I'm doing this from your perspective, by the way, don't know how it looks on the camera, but they like to buy a stock as is flat like this, it goes down and they wanna buy it here.

但为什么呢？

But why?

因为他们研究过的每一个参考案例，在八零年代之前，都是类似这样的例子。

Because every reference example that they've studied pre 'eight was always examples of something like that.

美国运通经历了沙拉油丑闻，我说对了吗？

American Express goes through the salad oil scandal, did I name that right?

也许吧，它崩盘了，巴菲特在酒吧里观察人们是否还在使用美国运通卡，然后买入，投入了他基金的20%，从中赚了一大笔钱。

Maybe, it crashed, Buffett is at the bar checking to see if people are still using American Express, buys out and puts 20% of his fund in it, makes a fortune from that.

现在，那些过去的参考案例已经没多大意义了。

Today, those reference examples don't matter anymore.

如果一家公司股价下跌，通常是因为遇到了非常糟糕的原因。

If a business is down, usually it's down because of really, really bad reason.

当然，确实有让它反弹的理由，但在情况发生变化之前，它不会自己好起来。

There are of course, there are reasons why it comes back, but until things change, it won't.

所以技术分析很重要，因为它和护城河其实是有联系的。具体来说，如果护城河在扩大，我们认为股价走势应该会很强劲。

So technical analysis is important because there's actually a connection with moats and specifically if a moat is expanding, we actually believe that if a moat is expanding, the chart should be strong.

如果你给我看一个下跌的图表，比如这里提到的竞争问题，那其实是我们开始分析的第一步，这种情况非常常见。

If you're showing me a chart that's come down, like this competitive problem here, and that's actually the first place that we start and it's very common.

我认为现在当一只股票下跌且存在模式问题时，它可能比之前更适合做空。

Today, I would argue that when a stock is down and it has a mode problem, it's probably even better short than it was before.

另外还有一种动态情况也会发生。

There's another dynamic that happens as well.

有一本很棒的书。

There's an amazing book.

不知什么原因，大多数对冲基金的人都不太看好这本书，我觉得大家对它几乎有一种负面的看法，但这完全是胡说八道。

It's come out of favor for some reason by most hedge fund guys, because of, I think there's almost like a negative perception to it, but it's total bullshit.

这本书是威廉·欧奈尔写的《如何炒股赚钱》。

It's how to make money in stocks by William O'Neil.

他在书中提出了一套方法，叫做“CANSLIM”选股法。

And he gives a methodology called the canceling methodology.

如今大多数分析师，尤其是那些真正优秀的价值型分析师，都应该读读这本书。

Most analysts today, specifically value guys that are really good analysts should read that book.

这套方法提供了很多思维方式，能让分析师转变为投资经理。

That methodology gives a lot of ways of thinking that can turn an analyst into a PM.

你看，退一步讲。

You see, step back a second.

我们在对冲基金行业利用的一个低效之处在于，我们不是把分析师培养成更好的分析师，而是把分析师培养成未来的投资经理，不管他将来会不会成为投资经理，对吧？

One of the inefficiencies that we take advantage of in the hedge fund business is that we don't train an analyst to be a better analyst, we train an analyst to be a future PM, whether he's going to be a PM or not one day, right?

而这样做，他实际上会成为一个更好的分析师，对吧？

And by doing that, he's actually going to become a better analyst, right?

他仍然会使用分析工具，但现在他能从风险和回报的角度思考，能交叉验证各种想法，能进行辩论，甚至能考虑领导力、管理、指导等方面，这些都是他将来管理资金所需要的技能。

He's still going to the analytical tools, but now he can think in terms of risk and reward, think in terms of cross referencing ideas, think in terms of doing bobber debates, think in terms of leadership even, think in terms of management, in terms of coaching, all the tools that he's going to need to be able to run money one day.

实际上，在对冲基金行业里，从分析师到投资经理的过渡模式是有缺陷的，甚至可以说是失败的。

In fact, the analyst to PM transition model in hedge fund business is broken, if not flawed actually.

威廉·奥尼尔的《如何在股市中赚钱》这本书里，他提出了一个非常精彩的观点，我在其他地方都没见过。

How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil, he makes an amazing point that I haven't seen made anywhere else.

他说，几十年来，他分析了所有这些交易者，只有2%的人能在股票创新高时买入，对吧？

And he says that over decades, he's analyzed all these traders and only 2% of them were able to buy stocks when they were making new highs, right?

几乎所有人都会说，哎呀，股票现在太高了，所以我不能在这里买。

Almost everybody is like, oh, stock is too high right now, so I actually can't buy it here.

但如果你仔细想想，我买过的最好的股票总是在不断创新高。

Whereas if you really think about it, the best stocks that I've ever been are always making you highs.

但在我们这个行业里，几乎有一种病态的想法，就是觉得，天哪，我不能买那个图表。

But there's almost a disease in our business to be, oh man, I can't buy that chart.

为什么不行呢？

Like why not?

所以股票涨得太多了，就这样。

So the stock's up too much, like so.

关键看它未来会怎样，而不是过去怎样。

It's about where it's going to be, not about where it's been.

而且我觉得，在那种环境下，尤其是按我们的选股标准，在新高买入其实更好。

And I'd argue that it's actually better in an environment, especially for our stock criteria to buy at new highs.

我们一点都不怕这个。

We're not afraid of that at all.

反过来，如果我看到一只股票在跌，那说明它有问题。

On the contrary, if I see a stock that's down, like something's wrong with it.

明白吗？

Know?

德鲁克·米勒有个原则，我们借鉴了。

Druck Miller has a principle that we've adapted.

他说，事情越好，仓位越大。

He says, get bigger as things get better.

他在那次会议上说这些话的时候没有解释，但对我们来说，这些因素可能包括基本面、行为因素、主题因素，还有这个想法的时间线。

And things he doesn't, he didn't explain it when he said that at this conference, but these things for us, it could be the fundamentals, it could be the behavioral stuff, it could be the thematic stuff and it could be the timeline of the idea.

所以我们确实会使用技术分析，虽然我没怎么深入研究过，我大概只读过一本相关的书。

So we do use technical analysis and I haven't done, I've read maybe one book on it.

确实有些图表形态是我们更偏好的，但我们也会跟踪成交量、移动平均线等等这些指标，因为它们能帮你了解某类投资者的动向。

There are definitely certain chart patterns that we prefer than others, but we do track volumes, we track moving averages, we track all these things because they do give you a picture of what's going on with a certain group of investors.

我们提到了技术分析。

We touch on technical analysis.

我不禁想到，你提到的那本分析师应该读的书。

I can't help but think about and and you mentioned that book that analysts should read.

你觉得分析师这个职业的未来会怎样？

Where do you see the future of the analyst job?

我问这个问题是因为，有些嘉宾在播客上说分析师挺好的，还是需要判断力之类的，但私下里却告诉我，我觉得大部分分析师前景堪忧。

And and I and I ask that question with the context of I've had guests on this podcast who will say on this podcast that analysts are good, you know, it's fine, you still need judgment, all these things, And then off the record will tell me, I think the majority are screwed.

我们不会，原因有几个。

We don't for a couple of reasons.

首先，我们来说说结构文化。

First, let's start the structure culture.

你看，大多数人在谈论文化时，往往不明白文化所处的结构非常重要，对吧？

See, most people, when they talk about culture, they often don't understand that the structure in which the culture resides matters a lot, right?

所以，每当谈到文化时，你应该总是让人说，好的，这没问题，但你的投资团队是怎么组织的？

So whenever you speak in culture, you should always have the person say, okay, that's fine, but how do you structure your investment team?

他们是按通才还是专才来组织的？

Are they structured as generalists or specialists?

因为这种结构会导致完全不同的文化，对吧？

Because that structure is gonna lead to totally different cultures, right?

你的投资组合管理结构是采用琼斯模型、市场中性、贝塔中性还是因子中性？

Are you structured in terms of your portfolio management structure and Jones model, market neutral, beta neutral, factor neutral?

这些都是文化所依托的因素。

These are all things in which your culture resides.

影响文化的因素之一就是你的工具。

One of the things that impacts cultures are your tools.

现在对冲基金犯的一个错误就是，他们采用这些AI工具，却没意识到这正在影响他们的文化。

And one of the mistakes that hedge funds are making today is adopting these AI tools and not understanding that it's impacting their culture.

因为如果你的反应是，我得裁掉这些初级员工，因为他们没带来什么价值，因为所有价值都来自AI工具，那你就搞砸了。

Because if one of your reaction is, I have to get rid of these juniors because they're not adding any value because I'm getting all the value from the AI tools, well you just fucked up.

为什么？

Why?

因为你知道文化真正需要的是什么吗？

Because you know what a culture really needs?

初级员工。

Juniors.

他们会问那些天真的问题。

They ask the naive question.

他们给你带来活力，对吧？

They give you energy, right?

他们在很多方面成长，他们是你的传承。

They develop in many ways, it's your legacy.

对冲基金经理的遗产不仅仅是让合伙人和自己赚了很多钱，还在于你培养的团队和很多离开去创办自己对冲基金的人。

The legacy of a hedge fund manager is not just that you made your partners a lot of money and yourself, that you made your team and a lot of guys have left to start hedge funds.

你知道吗，这么多离开朱利安·罗伯逊的人发了大财，成了亿万富翁，这真是天赐的福气。

You know, it is a godsend and a blessing that so many people left Julian Robertson and made fortunes, multi billionaires.

我能说出12个这样的人。

I could name 12 of them.

哇，那才是真正的遗产。

Wow, that's a legacy.

所以，如果你因为有了更便宜的AI工具而不招新人、不培训他们，那你就有文化问题了。

So if you're not hiring juniors and not training them because you're getting cheaper AI tools, you have a cultural problem.

而且实际上，你可能会发现去办公室不再有趣了。

And in fact, you're probably gonna have a problem where you realize it's not fun to go to the office anymore.

你知道什么有趣吗？

You know what's fun?

身边有年轻人，一起拿下大单。

Having young people around you and taking down big scores together.

跟一群老古董说话，他们不想再做空股票了，也不想再出差去拜访公司了，我可做不到那样。

Speaking to a whole bunch of like old fogies, that no longer want to short stocks, they no longer wanna go on the road and visit companies, I can't do that.

当我说，我周六和我老婆在一起，你知道，笑话就是，他说我们要去Bed Bath and Beyond，也许去Target。

When I said, I'm with my wife Saturday, you know, the joke is, you know, he said we're gonna go Bed Bath and Beyond, you know, maybe Target.

我们不知道，你知道，就像，去他妈的，所以不，让我们一起去拿下大目标，你知道，让我们一起发财，这很有趣，让我们一起去拜访公司，你知道，年轻人想这么做，而那些老资格的人，他们不想。

We don't know, you know, it's like, fuck that, you know, so no, let's go take down big scores together, you know, let's go get rich together, it's fun, let's go visit companies together, You know, juniors want to do that, the established guys, they don't want to.

分析界的未来是一种仿生式的。

The future of the analytical community is a sort of bionic.

一个既会用模拟工具又会用数字工具的人。

Somebody that knows how to use the analog tools and somebody that knows how to use digital tools.

你知道怎么用AI来学习，深入思考，发现你思维中的弱点，找到并利用低效之处，但你也对定性和模拟方法有足够的了解，能够运用我们所说的分析工具。

You know how to use the AIs to learn and to dig deep into your thinking and to find your weaknesses of thought, to find and exploit inefficiencies, but you also know enough about the qualitative and the analog to be able to do what we call the analytical tools.

一共有五个。

And there's five of them.

第一个是，我经常说，对过去模式的回忆，特别是竞争模式。

One is, and I say this a lot, it's a recall of past patterns specifically that are competitive patterns.

你需要这种记忆的原因，是因为你得在竞争上知道一些参考情况，这样当你看到某件事时，你会想，这让我想起沃尔玛当初是怎么对付那些小区域玩家的。

And the reason why you need that recall is because you kind of need to know reference situations competitively so that when you look at something, you're like, this reminds me of what Walmart did to the small regional guys in the beginning.

而且你最后会发现你是对的，因为那些竞争模式往往会重复，对吧？

And you'll end up being right because those competitive patterns tend to repeat, right?

所以你需要这种记忆。

So you need that recall.

第二个技能是你需要可视化能力，这种能力来自于当CEO说某件事时，你的大脑因为了解行业结构、他的竞争对手、他的供应商、他的客户，你就能在脑海中想象出这件事是否可行，对吧？

The second skill is you need visualization skills and visualization skills come from a CEO says something and your mind, because you know the industry structure, who he competes with, who his suppliers are, who his competitors are, who are his customers, you can actually visualize in your mind whether that's gonna work or not, right?

而且这种可视化能力非常强大。

And those visualization skills are very powerful.

第三个技能就是我们所说的“听弦外之音”。

The third skill is what we call reading between the lines.

所以CEO说了这个，无论是现场还是文字记录，你会想，他是这么说的，但根据他的激励机制、他的文化、他所在的地方、他认识的人，他实际的意思是这个。

So the CEO says this and whether live or in a transcript and you're like, that's what he said, but based on his incentive structure, based on his culture, where he's based, who he knows, here's what he actually means.

第四个技能是判断力的飞跃。

And the fourth scale is leap of judgment.

跳跃式判断就是，你看一家公司的销售部门，看他们怎么搞销售，发现有问题，然后你跳一步，说这不是销售的问题，其实是董事会层面的问题。

A leap of judgment is when you look at a company's sales department and how they run sales, and there's a problem with it, and then you make a leap and you say, it's not a problem with the sales, it's actually a problem at the board level.

然后有人就会问，你怎么知道是董事会层面的问题？

And somebody was like, how do you know it's at the board level?

因为如果董事会好的话，他们早就把这个问题解决了。

It's because if the board was good, they would have fixed us.

他们早就去找管理层，说你们到底在搞什么鬼？

They would have gone to management and be like, what the fuck are you doing?

你们得把销售弄好，对吧？

You gotta fix your sales, right?

一般来说，董事会如果非常懂销售，那是很重要的。

And generally board level that are really good at sales is very important.

我们见过很多公司倒闭，就是因为不懂销售，不懂怎么进入市场，也没搞明白怎么在这方面建立竞争优势。

We've seen many a company fail because they don't understand sales and go to market and haven't figured out how to get a competitive advantage doing that.

最后一个是综合能力，就是把回忆、一点可视化、一点跳跃式判断、一点话外之音的理解，综合起来形成一个论点。

And then last is synthesis, where you take recall, you take a little bit of visualization, a little bit of leap of judgment, a little bit of reading between the lines, and you synthesize it together a thesis.

这些就是核心的分析技能。

Those are the core analytical skills.

过度使用AI会损害这些能力，但如果把它们结合起来，我认为这将是商业的未来。

Overuse of AI hurts these things, but doing them together, think that's going be the future of the business.

我其实也相信，而且我愿意被证明是错的，那就是过度依赖AI工具，十年后将会造就我们见过的最差的投资组合经理。

I actually also believe and I'm willing to be proven wrong that overreliance on AI tools is going to create the worst portfolio managers that we've ever seen a decade from now.

因为要成为一名投资组合经理，你不仅要具备那五项分析技能，还必须学会在约束条件下行动。

Because to be a PM, you have to learn how to act, not only have those five analytical skills, but you have to act within constraints.

你必须在没有资源的情况下行动。

You have to act without resources.

你经常要在看不到对方推销内容的情况下行动，你不了解这些公司，有时候别人向你推销的公司你甚至都没听说过。

You have to act often without being able to see what somebody is pitching you, you don't know these companies, sometimes you're being pitched a company that you don't even know.

而且你还必须了解你分析师的弱点，以便能够放大或缩小他们的意见。

And also you have to learn the weaknesses in your analyst to be able to supersize them or undersize them.

顺便说一句，这其实是大多数投资组合经理都具备的一项技能，我们之间交流时会说，你是放大这个人的意见，还是缩小他的意见？

It's actually a skill by the way that most PMs have is like when we talk amongst each other, it's like, do you supersize this guy or do you undersize him?

基金经理们不喜欢谈这个，但确实会发生。

PMs don't like to talk about it, but it's actually, it happens.

所有这些技能，AI会削弱，过度使用AI、过度依赖AI会削弱所有这些基金经理和分析师的技能。

All these skills, AI blunts, overuse of AI, overreliance on that blunts all of these PM and analytical skills.

所以我的团队不会有这个问题。

So my people are not going to have that problem.

从竞争角度看，我认为我们正在进入多空策略最好的时期，主要是因为人们过度依赖这些AI工具。

Competitively, I think it's the greatest period for long- short that we are entering mostly because people are over relying on these AI tools.

如果你现在是个年轻人，想拥有那种组合技能，就是传统的、不用任何工具的阅读和深度思考，同时还想站在前沿，你怎么把这两者结合起来？

If you're a young person today and you want to have that combination of skills, the analog, you know, reading, deep thinking without any tools whatsoever, and then also wanting to be at the forefront how do you build those two and tie them?

因为我不认识任何人

Because I don't know anyone

有人正在尝试成为少数几个

there's trying to be a few

你知道那些在这两方面都很出色的人，因为就我个人而言。

You know people who are exceptional at these two, because like personally.

有的。

There are.

具体有一个人，他以前是我的实习生，现在在一家控股公司工作，他自己开发了一些工具。

One specifically, he was my intern and he's now at a holding company and he's built some tools.

他其实是我合伙人的弟弟。

He's actually my partner's little brother.

他做的那些工具，我真是羡慕得不得了。

He's built some tools that I'm so jealous of.

简直难以置信。

It's unbelievable.

实际上，我们一起研究一个重要的主题，我觉得他用这些工具，一个周末就找到了我们找了六个月都没找到的关键公司，真是见了鬼了。

In fact, we were looking at a major theme together and I think on a weekend with these tools, he found the crux company that we hadn't found after six months of looking at this fucking thing.

他一个周末就搞定了，而且那确实是这个主题的核心。

He did it in a weekend, you know, and that it's literally the crux of the theme.

这其实是一个做空主题，所以我们不能讨论，但这是我们一直在跟踪的东西。

It's actually a short theme, so we can't discuss it, but it's the thing that we track.

那个东西一倒，整个板块都会跟着倒。

When that thing goes, the entire sector is gonna go.

而且他是用这些新工具做到的，但你猜怎么着？

And he did it using these new tools, but guess what?

他不仅受过我的训练，还在一家很不错的投行和一位很优秀的投资人手下干过。

He also happens to be trained not only by me, but by a really good investment bank, by a really good investor at the shop where he was at.

在那里他们一起拿下了不少大项目。

And there they've taken down major scores together.

所以他有传统的训练，现在又有数字工具，两者结合，我不知道大家会不会接受这个说法，但我们管这叫“仿生人”。

So he has the analog training and now he has the digital tools and together, I don't know if people are gonna adopt this term, but we call them the bionics.

他们身上既有人的部分，也有机器的部分。

They are both human and machine in them.

所以走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

这样的人还挺多的。

There are a bunch.

要想擅长这个，就得靠反复练习。

The way you get good at it is reps.

这是唯一的方法，不过我能给点建议吗？

It's the only way you use, but may I give some advice?

你知道吗，有意思的是我们并不出名。

And you know, it's funny because we're not well known.

很多人还没听我们的，这没关系，因为我经常在会议上说点什么，没人注意，然后那天晚上我和另一位伟大的投资者共进晚餐，我说了同样的话，第二天他说了，会议就像，哇，你听到他说什么了吗？

A lot of people don't listen yet and it's okay because I've often been at conference where I'll say something and no one registers and then I'll be on dinner with another great investor that night and I'll say it and the next day he says it and the conference was like, wow, did you hear what he said?

人们想听那些他们认识的、能赚钱的人说话。

People want to listen to people that they know that are money makers.

我的意思是，我们不公开，我们不做任何类似的事情，所以没人真正知道我们是谁，但为了后人，我会给点建议。

I mean, don't file, we don't do anything like that, so no one really knows who we are, but I'll give some advice for posterity's sake.

要了解这些AI工具的优点和缺点。

Know the strengths and weaknesses of these AI tools.

你必须了解它们。

You have to know them.

你不会在不了解自己武器弱点的情况下上战场。

You don't go into the battlefield without knowing the weakness of your weapon.

你得知道进攻上的优势，也得知道防守上的优势。

You have to know the offensive advantages, you have to know the defensive advantages.

你得知道武器什么时候会卡壳，还得知道卡壳了该怎么办。

You have to know when the weapon jams and you have to know what to do when it jams.

你得知道，比如你在跟坦克作战，你不会带把手枪，你可能需要更结实的家伙，对吧？

You you have to know what kind of, you know, you're fighting a tank, you don't bring a handgun, you probably need something sturdier, right?

所以大家对这些工具的弱点缺乏了解。

So there's a lack of understanding as to what the weaknesses of these tools are.

我们认为它们很棒，而且只会越来越好，但它们有重大的盲区。

We think they're fantastic and only getting better, but they have major blind spots.

你必须知道那些盲区是什么。

You have to know what those blind spots are.

研究这个的一个方法。

One way to study this.

如果你看看人工智能，每当它进入某个领域，比如进入情报领域时，都犯过严重的错误。

If you look at artificial intelligence, whenever it's entered the field, when it entered intelligence, severe mistakes were made.

它进入军事领域时，也一样。

When it entered into the military, the same.

它进入双陆棋领域时，也一样。

When it entered into backgammon, the same.

进入扑克领域时，也一样。

When entered into poker, same.

国际象棋，也一样。

Chess, same.

围棋，也一样。

Go, same.

而且这些错误往往会重复出现。

And those mistakes tend to repeat.

事实上，我认为除了游戏之外，还有一种所谓的“恶劣环境”，就是那种以非线性方式变化，而且在很多方面都不稳定的环境。

And in fact, would argue that outside of games you have what's called, I think the term is wicked environments, environments that change in ways that are nonlinear and in many ways non stationary.

所以人工智能用的大量数据都是静态的，对吧？

So a lot of data that artificial intelligence uses is stationary, right?

但这个世界是非线性的，容易涌现新情况，而且不是静态的。

The world is nonlinear prone to emergence and non stationary.

所以你在使用这些工具的时候得非常小心，因为宇宙根本不在乎你用不用它们。

So you have to be very careful using these tools out in a universe that frankly doesn't care if you're using these tools or not.

它就像在说：哦，你觉得你挺厉害是吧？

It's like, oh, you think that you're right bitch?

那就看看会发生什么。

Watch what happens.

砰。

Boom.

世界就变了。

And the world changes on you.

我觉得特别好笑的是，那些把生意全押在人工智能上的人，七月份都跌了百分之十到十五，因为他们的工具根本没察觉到发生了什么。

I find it very funny that all the people that literally made their businesses into artificial intelligence were all down ten-fifteen percent in July because their tools didn't pick up on what was going on.

他们没意识到外面有个高杠杆玩家在爆仓。

They didn't realize it was a levered player out there blowing up.

顺便说一句，市场上很少有人知道这件事，我们也不知道。

Very, very few market participants knew about it by the way, we didn't know.

事情发生后，我们知道该怎么应对，但当时并不知道正在发生什么。

Once it happened, we understood what to do, but we didn't know that that was happening.

所以这些工具有优点也有缺点，你最好清楚它们是什么。

So these tools have strength and weaknesses, you better know what they are.

有趣的是，很多这些优缺点都写在科幻小说里。

Funny enough, a lot of those strengths and weaknesses are in sci fi books.

有些科幻小说里人工智能搞砸了，有些则成功了，你多少得了解这些情况。

There are sci fi books where artificial intelligence goes wrong or goes right, you kind of need to learn what those are.

你知道，埃隆·马斯克推荐读伊恩·班克斯的书。

You know, Elon Musk recommends to read the books of Ian Banks.

我小时候就看过那些书。

I used to read those when I was a kid.

《文明》系列讲的是一个宇宙，里面有个叫“文明”的人工智能在管理整个宇宙，人类在里面生活、互动，但时不时地，这个人工智能会变得调皮捣蛋，给人类制造各种麻烦。

And the culture series is about a book where it's about a universe where there's an artificial intelligence called the culture that runs the universe and the humans within it live and interact with each other where every once in a while the culture decides to become mischievous and create all sorts of trouble for the humans.

现在，人类还得跟其他没有人工智能的外星文明作战，而人工智能还逼着人类去跟这些文明打仗。

You know, now the humans have to also battle other alien cultures that don't have the AI and the AI forces the human to battle these cultures.

看着人类因为不知道怎么应对人工智能而手忙脚乱的样子，真是又着迷又好笑。

You know, it's fascinating, but also hilarious to see the human stumble when he doesn't understand how to deal with the AI.

你得读读奥森·斯科特·卡德的《安德的游戏》系列，里面安德·维京耳朵里有个AI，在他跟人交流的时候，AI会告诉他该说什么、问什么问题，甚至还会当面嘲笑那些人类。

You know, you have to read the Ender series by Orson Scott Card, where Ender Wiggin has an AI in his ear that as he's interacting with humans, the AI is telling him what to say or asking questions and literally making fun of the humans as they're speaking.

实际上，有个场景是AI觉得某个人类的遭遇很好笑，那个场景设计得让你跟着AI一起笑，但又为那个人类感到难过，然后安德对AI很生气，就把她关掉了，书里就进入了AI的时间。

Fact, there's a scene where Ender, the AI thinks it's funny what happened to one of the humans and the scene is designed so that you laugh with the AI but you feel sad with the human and Ender gets upset at the AI and shuts her off and the book goes into AI time.

你看到一台机器，对它来说一秒可能就像永恒，而对你来说只是一秒过去了，但对机器来说却是永恒。

You see a machine and one second might be an eternity, whereas for you it only one second passed, but for the machine it was an eternity.

所以，你只是关了她几秒钟，就足够让她恼火了，之后发生的所有事情都跟这有关，对吧？

So the fact that you shut her off only for seconds was enough for her to be pissed off and all the things that happened after with that, right?

所以，如果你要用这些工具，最好了解它们的优缺点，而这些孩子根本不懂这个。

So you better know the strengths and the weaknesses of these tools if you're gonna be using them and these kids don't understand it.

产品经理们也不懂这个。

PMs don't understand it.

因为这些工具，很多错误即将发生，因为现在这些人工智能工具不仅用于分析，人们还把它们用于投资组合管理。

There's a lot of mistakes that are about to be made because of these tools, because now these artificial intelligence tools have not only become for analysis, but people are using them for portfolio management as well.

市场是一个复杂的自适应系统。

The market is a complex adaptive system.

它复杂、自适应，而且是一个系统。

It's complex, it's adaptive, and it's a system.

顺便说一句，它会适应你使用那些小巧的AI工具。

You know, it's gonna adapt to you using your nice little AI tools, by the way.

小心点。

Be careful.

年轻人应该如何找到并建立自己的个人竞争优势？因为传统的招聘或师从导师的学习体系，现在很少有人能接触到。

How should young people find and build out comp- personal competitive advantages because the old systems of recruiting or learning under a mentor, fewer people can get access to that.

对。

That.

我觉得能接触到那种机会的人更少，或者说至少更难。

I would argue fewer people can get access to that, or at least it's harder.

那一个人要怎么找到自己的竞争优势，然后把它放大，真正打造成一个能防守、能赚钱的东西呢？

What are the ways in which someone can figure out their own competitive advantage and then scale that up and really build it into something defensible and profitable?

所以首先得搞清楚什么能给你带来能量。

So it helps to know what gives you energy first.

你知道吗，我个人的护城河很大程度上在于我是个外向的人。

You know, a lot of my personal moat tends to reside around the fact that I'm an extrovert.

给我能量的是人。

What gives me energy is people.

如果我一个人待太久，我其实会抑郁。

If I'm by myself too much, I actually get depressed.

为什么？

Why?

因为独处会消耗我的能量。

Because that being by myself drains my energy.

而且知道自己是不是外向或内向，这非常重要。

And knowing if you're an extrovert introvert, it's very important.

顺便说一句，作为一个题外话，我觉得很有意思的是，大多数人都不相信性格分类。

By the way, have an as an aside, find it a competitive pleasure to see that most people don't believe in personality typing.

如果你看看他们不相信的原因，其实都是站不住脚的，因为他们既不了解这些工具的优缺点，也不知道这些工具能给你带来什么样的视角。

If you look at the reasons why they don't believe in it are nonsensical because they neither know the strength nor the weaknesses of these tools and they don't know the perspective that these tools actually give you.

他们根本没研究过，只是随便说，就像我一个朋友说的，她管这叫“给书呆子看的星座”。

They haven't studied it but they just say it's, as a friend of mine says it, she calls it astrology for nerds.

她就是这么形容迈尔斯-布里格斯类型指标的。

That's what she calls Myers Briggs.

然而，在超级富豪或顶级富豪的名单上，确实有一些迈尔斯-布里格斯类型比其他类型出现得更频繁。

And yet there are definitely certain Myers Briggs types that show up more often than others in the very wealthy or uber wealthy lists.

所以你要知道的第一件事就是什么能给你能量。

So the first thing that you got to know is what gives you energy.

如果分析工作能给你能量，那就先做分析工作。

If the analytical work gives you energy, do the analytical work first.

如果跟人聊天让你有能量，那就先做跟人打交道的工作。

If talking to people gives you energy, do the talking to people work first.

顺便说一句，我就是这么做的。

That's what I do by the way.

很多时候，我甚至还没研究过一家公司，就会先去实地跟人聊一聊。

Very often, even before I've ever even studied a company, I'll go into the field and start talking to people about it.

这让我很有能量。

That gives me energy.

然后我再去做分析工作。

And then I do the analytical work.

但如果你是个分析师，而且待在自己的内心世界里让你有能量，那就这么做。

But if you're an analyst and that's what gives you energy to be in your own internal world, do that.

这才是能给你带来分析优势的东西。

That's what's gonna give you the analytical advantage.

比如说，你是个分析师，想获得分析优势，但还是需要去实地做行为研究，跟人交流，而你又觉得不自在，那你的优势就是找个外向的人，跟他一起做，让他去干那部分。

If let's say you're an analyst and you're trying to get an analytical advantage and you still need to go do the field work and the behavioral work by talking to people and you're uncomfortable doing that, then your advantage is to find an extrovert and do that work with him and have him do that.

你把分析给他，他去做事，然后他回来向你汇报。

Feed him the analysis, he does the work, he reports back to you.

投资是一项团队运动。

Investing is a team sport.

你知道，搭档组合这个概念非常重要。

You know, the power pair concept is very important.

如果我是外向的人，我希望有个内向的书呆子跟我一起干活。

If I'm an extrovert, I want an introverted dork with me doing the work together.

你知道，如果他做决定慢，我做决定快，那真的很好。

You know, if he's a slow decision maker, I'm a fast decision maker, that's really good.

他让我慢下来，我让他快起来。

He slows me down, I speed him up.

我擅长实地考察中的行为观察，他擅长分析工作。

I'm good at the behavior on the field work, he's good at the analytical work.

我们在一起就是绝佳搭档，一加一不等于二，这样才能抓住十倍股。

We make a great team together and one plus one doesn't equal one, that's how you get the 10 baggers.

这就是我们所说的领导力张力。

That's how you create a sort of, we call it leadership tension.

领导者的部分职责就是知道如何在团队中制造张力，并且知道如何化解张力，让紧张感得到缓解。

Part of the job of a leader is knowing how to create tension in a team and knowing how to resolve the tension so that the tension alleviates.

做法就是让一个非常内向的人和一个非常外向的人一起工作，内向的人会被外向的人搞得精疲力尽。

The way you do that is you take a big introvert and a big extrovert, have them work together, and the introvert is exhausted by the extrovert.

就像，我受不了了，这家伙总想拥抱，总想出去，我只想读10-K报告。

I mean, it's like, I can't take anymore, this guy wants to hug all the time, wants to go out, know, I just wanna read 10 Ks.

然后外向的人就会想，哥们，我怎么才能从这家伙嘴里套出信息来？

And then the extrovert is like, dude, how do I get information out of this guy?

所以就有了这种张力，而你作为领导者，你的任务就是管理这种张力，让他们找到神奇的效果，因为张力会带来解决，而我们相信解决就是超额收益，对吧？

So there's that tension and you as a leader, your job is to manage that tension so that they find magic because tension leads to resolution and the resolution we believe is alpha, right?

所以通过做那些让你充满活力的事情，你就能获得分析优势、信息优势或行为优势。

So by doing the things that give you energy, you then try to get an analytical edge, an informational edge or a behavioral edge.

并且在进攻端，用这些优势在分析、信息和行为上发挥作用。

And doing the things and how to use those things analytically, informationally and behaviorally on offense.

所以你看一家公司，需要有分析方面的优势，就是你觉得你懂，但别人不懂的东西。

So if you look at a company, there needs to be analytical elements that you think you understand and other people do not.

还需要有信息方面的优势，以及行为方面的优势。

There needs to be informational elements, there needs to be behavioral elements.

顺便说一句，信息这块其实挺难的。

By the way, the informational stuff, it's hard.

有人花大价钱去获取更好的信息。

There are people spending a fortune at getting better information.

现在有些对冲基金在雇贝恩咨询、波士顿咨询集团做分析报告，就是为了获得竞争优势，对吧？

Are hedge funds that are hiring now, Bain Consulting, Boston Consulting Group to do analytical reports to get a competitive advantage, right?

所以信息优势很难获得。

So the information is tough to get there.

它虽然还存在，但确实很难。

It still exists, but it's hard.

然后还有合规这个因素。

And then you have the compliance factor.

经常这样。

Very often.

而且我们经常需要把那些信息进行审核，确保你没有MMPI之类的问题，对吧？

And we do often, you have to get that information vetted to see if you're not, you don't have any MMPI, right?

但要从分析、信息、行为这几个方面入手，然后你再去构建那个体系。

But analytically, informationally, and then behaviorally, and then you go out and building that.

作为投资者，你会意识到你的网络就是你的护城河，对吧？

As an investor, one thing you'll realize is that your network is going to be your moat, right?

你看，退一步讲。

See, step back a second.

大多数对冲基金都是非常脆弱的企业。

Most hedge funds are very fragile enterprises.

没有终值。

There's no terminal value.

你的资产总是在电梯里上上下下。

Your assets go up and down elevators all the time.

你的资产只是在合同期内暂时属于你。

Your assets are contractually your assets for a short period of time.

你往往会遇到一些大额投资者。

You tend to have chunky investors.

再加上股市的变幻莫测。

You add the vagaries of the stock market.

这其实是个挺糟糕的生意。

It's actually a pretty shitty business.

做对了的时候，现金流确实很可观，但反过来，我有一天能把我的生意卖掉吗？

When you get it right, the cash flows are amazing, but in turn, can I sell my business one day?

不行，很少有对冲基金有终值。

No, very few hedge funds have terminal value.

我是说，Citadel、Bali、SAC这些公司确实创造了终值，但大多数对冲基金都失败了。

I mean, Citadel, Bali, SAC, those guys have created terminal value, but most hedge funds fail.

大多数对冲基金的失败率和餐馆差不多，对吧？

Most hedge funds have restaurant level failure odds, right?

甚至更高。

It's higher even.

别扯那么远，至少我们的经济模型好得多，但我们还是会失败。

Let's not go that far, but at least our economics are way better, but we fail.

顺便说一句，如果你研究过对冲基金的脆弱性，你会发现这种脆弱性其实随着时间的推移在增加，但没人真正解释或理解为什么会这样。

And by the way, if you study hedge fund fragility, the fragility is actually increased over time and no one actually explains why or understands why.

在我弄明白之前，我不会去开对冲基金。我们都存在多久了？大概十年了吧？

I wouldn't start a hedge fund until I understood, we've been around for what, a decade now?

我是说，我们现在规模还不大，还在摸索怎么扩张，就眼下这个阶段。但我可以告诉你，想要建立优势，真的需要花不少时间。

And I mean, we're still fairly small and we're only learning how to grow like currently, like right now, but I can tell you it took a while to get an edge.

这过程真的特别漫长。

It took a really long time.

有些人纯粹是运气好，你想想看。

And there are people that just got lucky, think.

一开始运气好，后来管了越来越多的资产，业绩反而下滑了。不过因为体量够大，赚钱效应还不错，能赚点钱，但这行确实很难做。

Get lucky in the beginning and then over time get a lot of assets and their performance goes down, but the economics are good enough that they could have made some money, but this is a tough business.

顺便说一句，有个建议是，很多投资者很擅长把竞争策略应用到他们的投资上，但不太擅长把竞争策略用在自己身上。

So one piece of advice by the way, a lot of investors are really good at applying competitive strategy to their investments, but they're not good at applying competitive strategy to themselves.

作为分析师，你的进入壁垒是什么？

As an analyst, what are your barriers to entry?

你的护城河是什么？

What is your moat?

你怎么加深这些壁垒？

How can you deepen these barriers?

你怎么加深和扩大那条护城河？

How can you deepen and expand that moat?

你会发现，这往往跟你的网络有关。

And you'll find that very often it's going to revolve around your network.

对我来说，研究护城河是我做过的最有收获的事情之一。

Studying moats for me has been one of the most rewarding things I've ever done.

我真的很感谢你之前告诉我这些，即使是在播客里，对吧，网络很重要，能够从不同的地方引用不同的参考。

And I really appreciate you telling me that before, even with a podcast, right, network, huge, being able to pull different references from different

嘉宾，没错。

guests That's right.

理解社交媒体算法以及如何分发内容，对吧？还要了解制作流程背后的门道。

Understanding social media algorithms and how to distribute content, right, understanding how the sausage is made in terms of production.

我以前完全没把这当成一门生意来考虑，直到后来才发现它确实是一门生意。

And it's not something I ever thought about as a business until it just turned out it it was.

然后我就想，等等。

And then I went, hold on a second.

得认真对待。

Gotta take it seriously.

你得了解事情背后的运作机制。

You gotta understand how the sausage is made.

用护城河的视角来看待问题，彻底改变了我对事物的理解。

And it's and and viewing things from the frame of moats has transformed my understanding.

然后你会发现，这不仅仅适用于企业，也适用于人。

And then you start to see it not just in businesses, but in people.

好，这个人的护城河是什么？

Okay, what is this guy's own moat?

他自己的竞争优势是什么？

What's his own competitive advantage?

等等，我得押注这个人。

Hold on, I got to bet on this guy.

或者等等，这个人应该雇佣那个人。

Or hold on, this guy should hire this guy.

就是

That's

因为，天哪，如果他有这种技能模式，业务就会爆发。

Because, oh my gosh, if he has this mode of a skillset, the business just explodes.

对。

That's right.

你会得到模式扩展。

You get mode expansion.

没错。

Precisely.

还有哪些从投资领域借鉴的想法，可以应用到人才和人的领域，真正理解人们的工作方式，进而理解系统和世界的运作方式？

What are some other ideas that you can take from the investing domain that you can apply to the human domain, the talent domain, and really understand the way people work and by extension the way systems and the world works because of that?

太多了。

There's so many.

虽然我们不是价值投资者，但我们使用价值概念，其中有一个概念，即护城河和经济城堡，最早由沃伦·巴菲特提出。

One of the things, even though we're not value investors, we use value concepts and there's a concept, the concept of moats and economic castles was first elaborated by Warren Buffet.

然后迈克尔·波特借鉴了他的竞争战略框架，理解了进入壁垒。

And you took, Michael Porter took his competitive strategy framework and understood barriers to entry.

他有五种竞争力量，但真正重要的是进入壁垒，这是最重要的。

He has five competitive forces, but really there's the first among equals, which is barriers to entry.

如果我们这个周末想把亚马逊的客户抢过来，我们该怎么做？

If you and I wanted this weekend to take Amazon's customers away from them, how would we do that?

你知道，我们很快就会想到很多进入壁垒。

You know, we'd quickly come up with a lot of barriers to entry.

实际上，就算给我们一万亿美元，如果有人给我们一万亿美元，我们能去把杰夫的客户抢过来，还能保持他那样的资本回报率吗？

In fact, if you gave us a trillion dollars, if somebody gave us a trillion dollars, could we go and take Jeff's customers away from him with the kind of returns on capital he has?

我不知道，祝你好运吧。

I don't know, good luck.

所以理解这一点，然后把它应用到你自己或者别的系统上，至关重要。

So understanding that and then applying it to your person or to other system is vital.

有一个概念我会特别大力地应用，那就是安全边际。

The one concept I would apply in a really big way is margin of safety.

安全边际是本杰明·格雷厄姆在他的书《聪明的投资者》里提出的。而且我确实相信，他提出这个概念是因为格雷厄姆在大萧条中亏得一塌糊涂。

See margin of safety, Benjamin Graham came up with in his book, The Intelligent Investor, And I actually do believe by the way that he came up with it because Graham got wiped out in the depression.

他意识到的一点是，如果你要做一项投资，如果它值100块，而你用50块买下来，那你就有50美分的安全边际——抱歉，是50美元，如果值100块你花50块的话。

And one thing he realized is that if you needed to make an investment, that if it was worth a 100 and you were buying it for 50, that you had a margin of safety of 50¢, $50 excuse me, if you're a $100 and 50.

那为什么叫安全边际呢？

And why is it a margin of safety?

因为如果你判断错了一部分，它只值75块，你仍然能赚25%，对吧？

Is that because if you're partly wrong and it's only worth 75, you're still making that 25%, right?

但如果你从很多角度来看，安全边际其实是一种竞争优势。

But if you think about it in many ways, a margin of safety is actually a competitive advantage.

如果你在创业，花的是竞争对手一半的成本，却获得同样的回报，那你的回报率就会更高。

If you're building a business and you're spending half of what your competitor is spending to build that business and earning the same returns, your returns are gonna be higher.

这就是优势，为什么？

That's an advantage, why?

因为如果情况发生变化，你有更多的资金去利用这个变化，而他没有，对吧？

Because if things change, you have more money to use that to use, to take advantage of this change, whereas he doesn't, right?

所以，把安全边际的概念应用到个人生活中，是投资中一个我觉得被低估的方面。

So thinking of terms of margin of safety and your personal life is an aspect of investing that I think is underrated.

你的生活方式节俭吗？

Do you have a frugal lifestyle?

你有没有存下现金作为安全边际？

Have you put cash away as a margin of safety?

如果发生变故或者你被解雇了，你有没有足够的现金来从容选择下一份工作？

If there's change or you get fired, do you have enough cash to be able to pick your next role?

你有没有足够的现金来支持你的配偶？

Do you have enough cash to have a spousal support?

因为很多时候，当事情出错时，你不仅要照顾自己，还要照顾你的家人。

Because very often when things go wrong, it's not just you that you have to take care of, it's your family.

我总是对大家说，嘿，至少存下三到五年的个人现金，因为市场就是市场。

I always say to guys like, hey, put at least three to five years away of personal cash because markets are markets.

你不知道会发生什么。

You don't know what's gonna happen.

会发生什么？

What happens?

你是一名分析师，赚了很多钱，开销也增加了。

You're an analyst, you make a lot of money, spending goes up.

你在汉普顿买了更好的房子，孩子上私立学校，对吧？

You do better house in the Hamptons, kids in private schools, right?

然后你一直在工作，顺便说一句，你个人开销的CEO其实是你的配偶。

And then you're always working, the CEO of your personal overhead by the way is your spouse.

她在花钱，但接下来你猜怎么着？

She's spending money, but then guess what?

基金出了问题。

The fund goes through problems.

所以你以为会来的奖金，其实不会来了。

So that bonus that you think is coming is not coming.

那会怎么样？

What happens?

比如我们见过有人不得不把孩子从私立学校接出来，搬到别的社区，再也负担不起汉普顿的房子，诸如此类的事情。

Like we've seen guys having to take their kids away from private schools, having to move to other neighborhoods, can't afford the house in the Hamptons anymore and all these things.

这太致命了。

It's deadly.

这太致命了。

It's deadly.

安排好个人生活非常重要，要为你的投资生活留出安全边际。

It's very important to structure your personal life, to have a margin of safety for your investment life.

而且会有很多力量告诉你多花钱，跟别人攀比，你知道的，做这些事情。

And there's gonna be a lot of forces that tell you spend more money, keep up with the Joneses, you know, and do all these things.

你得去圣

You gotta go to St.

巴特。

Bart's.

为什么你不在圣

Why aren't you in St.

巴特过圣诞节？

Bart's for Christmas?

你知道的，要小心，好吗？

You know, be careful, okay?

量入为出，存点现金。

Live below your means, put cash away.

我也不是说让你犯傻，好吗？

I didn't say be stupid either, okay?

因为在巴西有句我很喜欢的话，你知道，棺材没有抽屉，所以要生活，但别犯傻。

Because there's a saying in Brazil that I love, you know, coffins don't have drawers, you know, live, but don't be stupid either.

你知道吗，大多数人都不明白，为什么很高的个人开销会让你看不到威胁和机会，对吧？

You know, most people don't understand why a very high personal overhead stops you from seeing threats and opportunities, right?

因为威胁要来或者机会要来，而不是专注于它。

Because a threat is coming or an opportunity is coming as opposed to focusing on it.

你专注于什么？

What do you focus on?

你专注于你在汉普顿的房子地下室漏水了，对吧？

The fact that there's a leak in the basement of your house in the Hamptons, right?

这占用了太多智力、情感上的杂乱，而且财务上，你有点在看威胁或机会，你在一个画廊里，因为你遇到一个很有吸引力的女孩，她在卖画给你。

It's taking too much intellectual, emotional clutter and financially, you know, you're sort of looking at threats or opportunities, you're in an art gallery because you're buying art because you met this really attractive girl at the art gallery that's selling you paintings.

说真的，这种事会发生，好吗？

Seriously, this stuff happens, Okay?

顺便说一句，这些画廊，他们有人专门负责找这样的男人。

And by the way, these art galleries, they have people that are designed to find guys like that.

你知道吗，我和一个朋友聊过，为什么我们做得这么好，那些画廊女孩还没找上我们？

You know, a friend of mine and I was like, how come we've done so well and these art gallery girls haven't found us yet?

就是因为我们没有那种挥霍的生活方式，她们会去找谁呢？

Just because we don't have the kind of profligate lifestyles, who are they gonna go to?

是找那些花钱的人，还是不花钱的人？

The guys that spend money or the guys that don't spend money?

所以保持节俭、平衡的生活方式非常重要。

So very important to keep a frugal balanced lifestyle.

我认识的所有优秀投资者，他们往往都非常节俭。

Every great investor I know, they tend to be highly frugal.

没错，沃伦之所以非常节俭，是有原因的。

Okay, there's a reason why Warren is very frugal.

原因就是，我不知道能不能提他的名字，但我有个朋友曾给一位分析师当助手，那位分析师可能是目前最优秀的做多空策略经理。

The reason why it won the, I don't know if I can name him, but a friend of mine was an analyst for a very, probably the best long short manager alive.

但那位做多空策略经理非常节俭，节俭到只坐经济舱，尽管身家数十亿，也没有私人飞机，只坐经济舱。

But the long short manager is very frugal to the point where he only travels everywhere on coach, doesn't have a private plane despite being a multi billionaire, only flies coach.

我对这个的检验标准是，爱达荷州有个年度会议，他经常和我坐同一班飞机。

And my test for that is there's a yearly conference in Idaho and he's often on the same plane that I'm on.

我很震惊，因为我坐在商务舱，而这位老兄坐在后面，对吧？

And I'm shocked because I'd be sitting in business class and this guy's sitting in the back, right?

第一次发生这种事的时候，我心想，他不可能坐经济舱吧。

The first time it happened, I'm like, there's no way he's gonna be in coach.

不，不，他就是和他妻子坐经济舱，身家几百万的人。

No, no, he was in coach with his wife, multi millionaires.

我朋友是他的分析师，他要去拜访一家公司，前一天晚上出去玩了。

And my buddy was an analyst for him, he was going to visit a company and he had gone out the night before.

所以他说，我昨晚出去了，不想坐经济舱，六个小时的航班，让我坐商务舱，这样我就能睡觉。

So he's like, I went out last night, I don't feel like sitting in coach, it's a six hour flight, let me sit in business so I just sleep.

于是他坐进了自己花钱买的商务舱，他们都去洛杉矶参加那个会议，另一个和他很熟的基金经理说，你坐商务舱？

And so he gets into business class that he paid and they were all going to this conference in LA and another PM that knows him well, he's like, you're sitting in business?

他说，是啊，怎么了？

He's like, yeah, why?

他说，你老板在这儿呢。

He's like, your boss is here.

他会坐经济舱。

He's gonna be sitting in coach.

我另一个朋友真的就躲起来，然后他老板走进来，去了经济舱，而他坐在商务舱里。

My other buddy literally puts like hides himself and his boss walks in and goes to coach while he's sitting like in business.

他当时尴尬得要命，但那种节俭，我们虽然取笑他，因为那人抠门，但他没有浪费资源的杂乱负担。

He was mortified, but that frugality, we make fun of it because the person is cheap, but he doesn't have the clutter of wasted resources.

当机会来临时，他能好好思考。

When an opportunity comes, he can think about it.

更重要的是，当变化来临时，他真能适应，因为你知道是什么阻止你适应吗？

And more importantly, when change hits him, he can actually adapt because you know what stops you from adapting?

资源杂乱。

Resource clutter.

因为当你需要把船转向另一个方向时，如果你的船很重，你就很难做到。

Because when you have to take the ship and veer it another direction, if your boat is heavy, you're gonna have a hard time doing that.