中情局针对塔克 + 特朗普对北约的警告 | PBD #760

是的

Yeah.

我需要你们这么做。

Here's what I need you guys to do.

亚当，你的看法呢？

Adam, your thoughts.

所以，归根结底，问题在于伊朗。

So ultimately, this comes down to Iran.

一提到伊朗，我想到的词就是人质。

You know, the one word I think of when I think of Iran, it's hostage.

你知道，1979年他们闯进来，扣押了我们多少公民作为人质，

You know, they came in in 1979 and held how many of our citizens hostage in

1944年。

1944.

-好的。

-Okay.

所以他们在1979年进来并

So they came in in 1979 and

扣押了——我想是吧。

held -I think.

你能核实一下这个说法吗？

Can you fact check that?

扣押了我们四百到五百名公民作为人质。

-Four hundred to 500 of our own citizens hostage.

而现在，他们用作筹码的是将全世界扣为人质。

And now, what they're doing for leverage is holding the world hostage.

这首先从霍尔木兹海峡开始，从石油开始，从能源开始。

So that starts with this Hormuz thing, that starts with oil, that starts with energy.

船舶的52%。

52% of ship.

四天。

Four days.

好的。

Okay.

然后就涉及到供应链。

And then it ends to the supply chain.

提醒我一下，疫情期间我们总在哪儿听到供应链、供应链、供应链？

Remind me where we used to hear the supply chain, supply chain, supply chain all during COVID.

但如果他们没料到伊朗会这么做，那他们就有点天真了。

But if they didn't expect this from Iran, then they went in a little naive.

我宁愿相信他们知道伊朗有哪些选择。

I would like to think that they knew, alright, what are the options Iran has?

我不确定他们是否预料到伊朗会攻击自己的邻国。

They I don't know if they expected them to attack their own neighbors.

我不确定他们是否预料到这一点。

I don't know if they expected that.

哦，天哪，这可能让他们措手不及。

Oh, gee, that caught them maybe off guard.

他们有没有预料到伊朗会把霍尔木兹海峡的贸易作为筹码？

Did they expect them to use this trade of Hormuz as as leverage?

根据本周末在《与媒体见面》节目中接受克里斯滕·韦尔克采访的一位顶级内部人士的说法，他们确实预料到了这一点。

Well, if according to one of the, top insiders who was on Meet the Press with, Kristen Welker this weekend, they expected this.

他们说，美国历史上最高的汽油价格是多少？

They said, what's the highest gas prices we've ever had in America?

那是2022年，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，汽油价格涨到了每加仑5美元。

Well, it was in 2022 when gas went up to $5 during the time that Russia invaded Ukraine.

所以，金钱、权力、尊重，这一切最终都归结为一点。

So money, power, respect, this was all that comes down to Look.

归根结底，就是这么回事。

At the end of the day, it's this.

伊朗是坏人，我们可以继续拖延，也可以现在就解决这个问题。

Iran is the bad guy, and we could kick the can down the road, or we can deal with this now.

特朗普，我非常尊重他，他现在就在处理这个问题，因为谁知道下一届政府会是谁呢？

And Trump, and I respect the hell out of him, he's dealing with this now because who knows who the next administration's gonna be?

接下来呢？谁知道下一任总统会是谁？

Who next who knows who the next president's gonna be?

如果你现在不处理伊朗问题，你接下来十年、二十年、五十年都得跟伊朗纠缠不清。

And if you don't deal with Iran now, you're gonna be dealing with Iran for the next ten, twenty, fifty years.

归根结底，这是我最大的担忧，让我把话说完。

And ultimately, this is my biggest fear, if I could just land this plane.

我们真的希望在世界中心出现一个拥有核武器的圣战政权吗？

Do we want a nuclear armed jihadist regime in the middle of the world?

你知道，他们总在讨论这里的一个典型案例——朝鲜。

You know, they talk about what's a case example here, North Korea.

朝鲜，你知道他们怎么称呼朝鲜吗？

North Korea, they called you know what they call North Korea?

他们称朝鲜为‘隐士王国’。

The Hermit Kingdom.

因为朝鲜远在世界的另一端，却拥有核武器。

Because they're all the way on the other side of the world with nukes.

它们对地缘政治的影响并不极端，但我们知道处理朝鲜是什么样子。

They don't really affect geopolitics to an extreme, but we know what that's like dealing with North Korea.

你能想象一个具有圣战倾向、用核武器资助恐怖主义的朝鲜吗？

Could you imagine a North Korea with jihadist tendencies funding terror with nukes?

归根结底，如果我们现在不解决这个问题，我们的孩子、父母或祖孙辈将不得不面对它。

At the end of the day, if we don't deal with this now, our kids or our grandpa or grandkids are gonna be dealing with this.

这场争论已经结束了。

And the debate is over.

我们现在就在处理它。

We're dealing with it now.

现在的问题是，下一步该做什么？

It's just now what are the next steps?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你说得有道理。

I mean, it's it's fair what you're saying.

顺便说一下，这引出了伊朗外长的表态。

And by the way, this leads to what Iran foreign minister came out.

在外交部长通话中提到了两件事。

Two things that was mentioned on the foreign ministers call.

其中一件事是关于核问题的讨论。

One of them was about the nuclear conversation.

另一件事是，他们说，罗布，如果你有那段视频的话，任何国家，除了美国和以色列，都可以通过霍尔木兹海峡。

And, the other one was about the fact that any country, this is what they said, Rob, if you got the clip, any country except for US and Israel can pass through the Strait Of Hormuz.

伊朗外长表示，这是《纽约邮报》的一篇报道。

Iranian foreign minister says, this is a New York Post story.

所以，伊朗的情况就是这样了吗，罗布？

So Iran, is this it, Rob?

是的，先生。

Yes, sir.

请说。

Go for it.

事实上，霍尔木兹海峡是开放的。

Well, as a matter of fact, this the Strait Of Hormuz is open.

它只对属于我们敌人的油轮和船只关闭，也就是那些攻击我们及其盟友的国家。

It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to the to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies.

其他船只可以自由通行。

Others are free to pass.

当然，许多国家出于安全考虑，宁愿选择不经过。

Of course, many of them, prefer not because of their, you know, security concerns.

这与我们无关。

This this has nothing to do with us.

同时，有许多油轮和船只正在通过霍尔木兹海峡。

And at the same time, there are many tankers and and ships who are passing through the Strait Of Hormuz.

我可以明确说，海峡并未关闭，只是对美国、以色列的船只和油轮关闭，对其他国家不设限。

And and and I can say that the the the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American, Israeli, you know, ships and tankers and not to to others.

汤姆。

Tom.

所以我认为这正是你典型的虚张声势。

So I I think this is your classic bluff.

就像是，好吧。

And it's like, alright.

所有这些油轮都可以通过，除了这些。

All these tankers can go through except these.

这些油轮都注册了，但不悬挂某些国旗。

All of these tankers are like registered, they don't carry certain flags.

比如利比里亚注册之类的。

So like Liberian registry and stuff.

你得去查清楚它们的注册信息。

You have to go look and see what the registry is.

有些可能为埃克森运输，有些可能为其他公司运输。

And some of them may be caring for Exxon, some of them may be caring for this.

我不知道该怎么区分它们。

I don't know that how you sort it out.

这个周末我读到一篇文章，说好吧。

And I I read this this weekend that said, okay.

所以他不会允许这些油轮通过。

So he's not gonna allow tankers this.

实际上，因为存在这些货运航线。

So really, because there's there's these freight lines.

所以我不清楚他们是怎么区分的。

And so I don't know how they sort them out.

因此，这就是我当初的问题。

And so that's kind of the the question that I had.

他们怎么知道每艘船运的是什么？

How do they know who's carrying what?

对吧？

Right?

你必须登船并要求查看货运清单。

And you have to like board them and ask for the manifest.

哦，你知道，我们是这条线的。

Oh, you know, we're we're we're this line.

我们是利比里亚注册的，今天在为壳牌石油运输。

We're Liberian registry and we're caring for Shell Oil today.

壳牌石油要运到哪里？

Where's the Shell Oil going?

哦，是的，我们要去洛杉矶的圣佩德罗。

Oh, we're, yeah, we're we're going to Los Angeles, San Pedro.

首先，他们为什么要这么做？

First of why would they be doing that?

但你明白我的意思吧，帕特？

But you see the point, Pat?

所以我一直在想，他们到底是怎么分类的，还是只是个大忽悠？

So I was trying to figure out how exactly do they sort them out or is it just the Great Bluff?

只有这些人才能通过。

Only these people can go through.

只有这些人才能通过。

Only these can go through.

什么？

What?

这一边有TSA安检点吗？

Is there a TSA checkpoint on one side of this?

他们在检查文件吗？

Are they checking papers?

所以在我看来，这有点像是虚张声势。

So to me, it seemed like a little bit of a just a kind of a bluff.

问题是，你怎么知道？

It's like, how do you know?

我的意思是，虚张声势是一种情况。

I mean, a bluff is one.

另一部分是他撒谎了。

The other part is he's lying.

因为如果你看看那些被击中的船只，有一艘来自泰国，它们被弹药击中了。

Because if you look at the ships that were hit by one ship was from Thailand, that they were hit by the projectiles.

对。

Right.

好吧。

Okay.

所以那不是我们，或者说是对的。

So that's not us That's or right.

还有三个失踪人员之类的。

And it was three missing members or whatever.

另一艘是日本的。

Another one was Japan.

还有几个其他国家，巴拿马是其中之一，一艘油轮，一名船员丧生，同样是被弹药击中，还有安哥拉。

And you got a couple other countries that you have that Panama was one of them, an oil tanker, one crew member killed, again, another projectile, and you have Angola.

所以他们用这种方式向世界表明：我们跟你们所有人都相处得很好。

So they're using this as a way to say, hey, world, we're good with all of you.

只是跟伊朗和以色列关系不好。

Just not good with Iran and Israel.

在此期间，你们在海湾国家还袭击了哪些国家？

In the interim, what other countries did you hit in The Gulf States?

你们还袭击了谁？

Who else have you hit?

巴林。

Bahrain.

你们是在袭击所有这些其他地方吗？

Are you are you attacking all these other places?

所有人。

Everybody.

你这是什么意思？

So what do mean?

你的盟友，而你跟除了伊朗和以色列之外的所有人都关系不错。

Your allies and you're you're good with everybody except for Iran and Israel.

他在向全世界撒谎，说有那么多人。

He's lying to the world when he's saying that many.

不过，帕特，我有个问题。

So here's my question, though, Pat.

如果我们掌控了制空权，而我们确实掌控了，而且我们已经击沉了他们所有的舰船和海军，那到底是谁有资格告诉我们哪里能做、哪里不能做？

If we own the skies, which we do, we've sank all their ships, all their navies, Why the hell are we who who is going to tell us what we can and we can't do there?

谁在阻止我们做我们想做的任何事？

Who who's stopping us from doing exactly what the hell we wanna do?

他的军队？

His military?

劳埃德的。

Lloyd's.

谁？

Who?

这个劳埃德是什么？

What's the Lloyd's that?

是保险。

The the insurance.

所以保险公司说，如果你走这条路，我就不给你承保，这就是为什么特朗普不得不表示，那我们就通过美国来搞担保保险。

So the insurance has said, I won't insure you if you go through this, which is why Trump had to say, well, we'll do bonded insurance through The United States Of America.

但这确实是个麻烦。

And yet and that it's nuisance.

这简直就是麻烦炸弹。

It's it's it's nuisance bombs.

对吧？

Right?

他们没有海军。

They don't have a navy.

不是麻烦。

Not nuisance.

麻烦。

Nuisance.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

nuisance 没聪明到会搞这种‘是的’。

Nuisance's not that smart to have that kind of a Yeah.

刚才说的是 nuisance。

Was saying nuisance.

是的。

Yeah.

你简直是在耍人。

It was like You were making a fool.

不过，你见过他的头发，他个子很高。

Although, you've seen his hair, he's big

搞石油的。

in oil.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你有这些麻烦事和低科技的东西，也就是无人机。

So you've got you've got all of this the nuisance and the low tech stuff, which is the drones.

嗯。

Mhmm.

无人机可以杀死水手，确实有人因此丧生。

And so the drones can kill a sailor, as and one did.

嗯。

Mhmm.

无人机可以损坏船只。

Drones can damage the ship.

确实有一艘船被损坏了。

One did.

但这不像鱼雷那样能击沉船只。

But it's not like a torpedo gonna sink the ship.

他们担心水雷，然后又担心这些四处飞行的小型无人机。

They were concerned about mines, and then they're concerned about all these little drones flying around.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这就是问题所在。

That's the question.

于是劳埃德说，好吧，你们没有保险。

And so Lloyd says, alright, you're not insured.

所有人都必须停止。

And everybody has to stop.

我们不会开车穿过这片区域。

We're not gonna drive through this.

所以劳埃德伦敦，帕特，你不同意吗？

So Lloyd's of London, Pat, do you disagree?

劳埃德伦敦基于无人机和这些可能引发索赔的威胁，关闭了霍尔木兹海峡。

Lloyd's of London closed the Straits Of Hormuz based on the threats of drones and these things that could cause claims.

因为当时并没有庞大的海军在那里击沉油轮。

Because there wasn't like a big Navy out there sinking tankers.

是的。

Yeah.

但那是他们的职责。

That but that's their job.

精算师们坐在那里开会，说：伙计们，为我们保护这些人承担的风险太大了。

The actuaries are sitting there having meetings and, hey, guys, it's a lot of risk for us to protect these guys.

我们得想办法降低对这些人的保险保障。

We got to figure out a way to drop the insurance on these guys.

对。

Yeah.

如果你现在仔细看看，霍尔木兹海峡确实是关闭的。

Well, if you look at it right now, the Strait Of Hormuz is is closed.

所以精算师和保险人员无疑是一部分因素。

So the actuaries and the insurance people are are one component for sure.

那分销商呢？

But what about the distributors?

比如，船只也有发言权。

Like, the ships have a say.

上周末《60分钟》做了一期精彩的采访曝光，讲的是一家大型德国航运公司，他们采访了一位女性。

There was a great, interview expose on sixty Minutes over the weekend where they dealt with a major German shipping company, and they interviewed this woman.

我不确定，我觉得这位可能就是她。

I don't know I think this might be her right here.

长得真像她。

Looks just like her.

她问：那你们为什么不移动你们的船？

And she's like, Well, why aren't you moving your ships?

她说：我担心我的水手会丧命。

She's like, For fear of my sailors getting killed.

他回应：那如果特朗普提高保险费用呢？

And he goes, well, what happens if Trump increases the insurance?

她说，这听起来不错，但你无法用金钱衡量我船员的生命。

She's like, well, that's great, but you can't put a price on my sailors' lives.

所以她基本上说，我的意思是，这方面的数据图表多得是。

So she basically said, I mean, there's there's tons of graphs of this.

它们显示，激素运输量巨大，人员往来频繁。

They show, like, there's tons of movement in straight of hormones, tons of movement, people coming and going.

这里有个咽喉要道，现在基本上已经完全停滞了。

There's this choke point, and now it's basically at a standstill.

就像个停车场一样。

It's like a parking lot.

如果你曾经在95号州际公路的停车场里堵过，就知道那有多糟了，尤其是当你的司机不想开车的时候。

So if you ever been on I 95 in the parking lot, it's not good, you know, and especially if your driver doesn't wanna drive.

这些公司已经决定，出于对伊朗可能采取行动的担忧，不再通过霍尔木兹海峡。

So these guys have made the decision that they don't want to pass through the Strait Of Hormuz for fear of what Iran will do.

你知道吗，帕特？

And you know what, Pat?

你知道最终归结到什么吗？

You know what it ultimately comes down to?

是的

Yeah.

我们在谈论美国。

We're talking about America.

我们在谈论以色列。

We're talking about Israel.

我们在谈论联盟。

We're talking about alliances.

中东海湾国家必须得真正站出来。

The Middle Eastern Gulf states, they need to step the hell up.

我什么意思？

What do I mean?

我们总说未来前景光明。

We talk about having a future looks bright.

未来前景光明。

Future looks bright.

未来前景光明。

Future looks bright.

中东地区有如此多的光明与可能性。

There's so much brightness, and there's so much possibility in The Middle East.

你看到沙特的穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼，他直言不讳地表达自己的观点并采取果断行动。

You have MBS in in Saudi saying what he feels and and using a directive in that.

你还有迪拜。

You have Dubai.

你还有阿联酋在做着了不起的事情。

You have The UAE doing amazing things.

你有这些石油富足的海湾国家。

You have these Gulf states that are rich in oil.

伙计们，归根结底，这责任在你们身上。

Guys, at the end of the day, this is gonna be on you.

你意识到你有一个麻烦的邻居，而不是什么好消息，这个邻居正被逼入绝境，而且他基本上在对你进行轰炸。

You realize that you have a nuisance, not a newsome, a nuisance of a neighbor, and he's basically getting cornered, and he's basically bombing you.

那你打算怎么办？

So what are you gonna do about it?

你不能总是依赖美国甚至以色列来帮你收拾烂摊子。

You can't always rely on The United States or even Israel to take care of your mess.

归根结底，这是中东国家自己需要清理的烂摊子。

Ultimately, this is the Middle Eastern country's mess to clean up.

你希望他做些什么？

What would you like to see him do?

因为你们有卡塔尔、阿曼、阿联酋和巴林。

Because you have Qatar, Oman, and UAE, and Bahrain.

这四个国家才是真正受苦的。

Those are the four that have really suffered.

当然。

Sure.

但他们还是向沙特求助，说：嘿，能帮个忙吗？

And yet they've they've called out to Saudi and saying, hey, can we have a hand here?

我们没有你们的军队。

We don't have your armies.

我们没有你们的空军。

We don't have your air force.

我们只有边境海军，仅此而已。

We don't have more than than than border navies.

你知道的。

You know?

我们只有基本的资源。

We have basic things.

他们向沙特求助了。

And they called out the Saudi.

你能让邻居们稍微收敛一点吗？

Can you get the neighbors to turn it down a bit?

所以当你说到要加大投入时，他们已经表现得相当积极，甚至有点打破团结的迹象。

So when you say step up, they've been pretty vocal, almost breaking ranks a little bit.

你还希望这些海湾国家做些什么呢？

What more do you wanna see these Gulf states

你可以嘴上说得好听，但你愿意实际行动吗？

So you can talk the talk, but are you willing to walk the walk vocal?

恕我直言。

You know, forgive me.

这还不够。

That that's not enough.

所以，追查资金流向。

So follow the money.

归根结底，大多数国家——伊朗并不希望的那些国家——都渴望和平与繁荣。

At the end of the day, most countries, which Iran does not want, most countries want peace and prosperity.

你愿意承认沙特也渴望和平与繁荣吗？

Are you willing to say that Saudi wants peace and prosperity?

我愿意。

I am.

你愿意说阿联酋也渴望和平与繁荣吗？

Are you willing to say that UAE wants peace and prosperity?

我愿意。

I am.

北约国家希望这样吗？

Do you do the NATO countries want that?

以色列希望这样吗？

Does Israel want that?

美国希望这样吗？

Do United States want that?

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

伊朗希望这样吗？

Does Iran want that?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

如果你看看他们的行动或言论，他们到底做了什么？

If you look at their actions or their rhetoric What what they do?

你是在问

You're asking

你是在问，这是一次军事行动吗？

You're asking, was it a military action?

为了升级。

For step up.

我就想，我

And I'm like, I'm

很多人在发声。

a lot being vocal.

他们还能做什么？

What else can they do?

好的。

Okay.

他们

They

阿曼没有F-35。

I Oman doesn't have 30 f 35.

不是在问他们如何

Not asking them how

做？

do do?

我们给了他们两个

We gave them two

但归根结底，这将比对美国的影响更大程度地冲击他们的底线。

But at the end of the day, this is gonna affect their bottom line more than even America's.

因为如果我们谈论霍尔木兹海峡，这是任何人都无法

Because if we're talking about the Strait Of Hormuz, which nobody could

这个问题。

this question.

你希望他做什么？

What do you want him to do?

你想要

What do you

所以归根结底是经济问题。

So it comes down to the economics.

因此，他们需要对伊朗施加压力，无论是自上而下，通过君主专制者，还是自下而上，让他们的民众真正体会到伊朗带来的痛苦。

So they're gonna need to put pressure on Iran, whether it's from the top down, whether it's monarchy autocrats or or from the bottom up and have their citizens understand what it's like to feel the pain from Iran.

最终，伊朗是孤立的。

At the end of the day, Iran is isolated.

他们几乎没有朋友，而我们正踩在他们的脖子上。

They have very few friends, and we're stepping on their neck.

那我们打算怎么做？

And what are we gonna do?

放他们一马？

Let them off the hook?

你知道海峡霍尔木兹影响更大的是谁吗？

Do you who who does the Strait Of Hormuz affect more?

是亚洲国家，还是美国的北约盟友？

Asian countries or NATO allies in The US?

当然是亚洲国家。

Well, it's Asian countries.

谁从霍尔木兹海峡获取石油？

Who gets their oil from the Strait Of Hormuz?

中国、印度、韩国、日本。

China, India, Korea, Japan.

归根结底，他们不得不对那些中东国家施加压力，这些国家正在运输石油。

At the end of the day, they're gonna have to put pressure on their, distributors, these Middle Eastern countries that are shipping oil.

追查资金流向。

Follow the money.

如果金钱手段不起作用，那你就得采取其他替代措施。

And if the and if the money doesn't work, then you're gonna have to use some alternative measures.

但归根结底，石油对这些人来说是最重要的东西。

But at the end of the day, the the oil is the number one thing for those people.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一下，霍尔木兹海峡目前是开放的。

So so by the way, the Strait Of Hormuz currently is open.

当然，你必须承担风险，但目前它确实是开放的。

Obviously, the risk you gotta take, you gotta take, but it's currently open.

贝桑特最近甚至表示，海峡是开放的。

Besant even said recently that it's open.

截至什么时候？

As of what?

在这儿。

Here.

就目前而言，它是开放的。

As of right now, it's open.

如果你现在就去查，现在就去查。

If you're right now, go check right now.

霍尔木兹海峡目前

Strait Of Hormuz right

市场现在。

market's now.

开放。

Open.

是开放的。

Is open.

如果你想看这个，这是十一天前的。

If you wanna play this is eleven minutes ago.

如果你想看这个片段，罗布。

If you wanna play this clip, Rob.

好吧，我们来拆解一下。

Well, the let let's pull that apart.

所以我们看到越来越多的油轮开始通过。

So we we are seeing more and more the fuel ships start to go through.

伊朗船只已经陆续离开，我们允许这种情况发生，以供应世界其他地区。

The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world.

我们现在也看到印度船只离开。

We've seen Indian ships go out now.

因此，那些严重依赖海湾石油的印度人，我们认为一些中国船只也已经离开。

So the Indians who rely very heavily on Gulf oil, we believe some Chinese ships have gone out.

所以，你知道，这些情况应该会在海湾出现任何护航舰队或保护性编队之前开始增加。

So, you know, that and, you know, that should start ramping up before there are any, flotillas or protective, armadas in The Gulf.

所以，我们认为，伊朗人正在放行一个自然的出口。

So, you know, we think that there will be a natural opening, that the Iranians are letting out.

目前，我们对此没有意见。

And for now, we're we're fine with that.

我们希望世界能够得到充分的供应。

We want the world to be well supplied.

我们做的另一件事是，对已经上路的俄罗斯石油给予了三十天的豁免。

The the other thing that we did, we gave a thirty day waiver for Russian oil that was already on the water.

这个

The

贝松通常不会这样说话。

Besson normally doesn't speak like that.

好的。

Okay.

他通常非常严谨。

He's typically very thorough.

这正是他中途退出又回来的那次采访，罗布。

And this is this the same interview that he had to step out and come back in, Rob.

这是另一个不同的采访。

This is a different one.

不同的采访。

Different interview.

是的。

Yeah.

这是今天早上进行的。

This is from this morning.

不管怎样，那是另一个话题，但目前是开放的。

Anyways, that's a different conversation, but it is open.

所以当他谈论的时候，你手上现在拿的是这个吗，罗布？

So while he's talking about, is that the one you have right now, Rob?

就是这样。

This is right.

它叫做‘away’。

It's called away.

是的。

Yeah.

就显示这是昨天的。

Just show show this is yesterday.

对吧？

Right?

或者是几天前的。

Or a couple days ago.

你讲吧，Rob。

Go ahead, Rob.

我觉得这是星期五。

I think this is Friday.

我听了你说的，总统希望你，抱歉。

I listened to you on the The president wants you sorry.

总统希望你非常轻松。

The president wants you very light.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

好吧。

Okay.

而且据称，他们

And allegedly, they

打算

were going

去处理这个情况。

to the situation.

完全没问题。

No problem at all.

当

When

总统打电话来，

the president calls,

你的面试

your interview

看

See

很快见，秘书长先生。

you shortly, mister secretary.

你可以把这一点加进去。

You can work that in.

秘书长先生，我必须说，这是第一次，哦，发生了。

Mister secretary, I I have to say, it's a first time Oh, it happened.

还有一个损失，那就是面试者被叫去前往情况室了。

A loss as well that, interviewee has been pulled away to go to the Situation Room.

怎么样

How was

总统？

the president?

他紧张吗？

Was he was he stressed?

没有。

No.

总统情绪非常好。

The the the the president is in great spirits.

伊朗任务进展顺利，提前完成。

The Iranian mission is proceeding well ahead of schedule.

你知道，我有个正在考虑参军的青少年，我可以向你给出对这个团队的最高评价——从特朗普总统到参谋长联席会议主席，再到国防部长，我都会说，我会把孩子的生命托付给他们。

And, you know, I have to tell you, well, I've a teenage teenager who's considering, military service, and I could give this team my highest compliment from president Trump to the head of the joint chiefs to secretary of war, I would, they say, that I would trust my child's life in their hands.

这有点奇怪。

That is kind of weird.

从一次普通访谈突然变成总统急需你，紧急情况，你离开一个半小时，回来坐下后，第一句话就是：嘿，听着。

Going from a regular interview to the president needs you right now, which is an emergency, you leave for an hour and a half and you come back and sit down, and the first thing out of your mouth is, hey, listen.

我有个儿子，我会送他上战场。

I have a son, and I'll send him to war.

这听起来像是我的观点，他们进去后说，嘿，听着。

That that to me sounds like this is my opinion, that they went in and they say, hey, listen.

我们可能要派地面部队了，因为你正在参加这个采访，这事会传遍各地。

We're probably gonna be sending ground troops since you're gonna be on this interview, it's gonna be going everywhere.

有点像是说你会送自己的孩子去。

Kinda say that you would send your kid.

这转变也太突然了吧，汤姆。

That's a that's a wild shift, Tom.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

那是真的吗？你看到他的肢体语言了吗？

Is that did and you saw his body language?

通常来说，斯科特——就像你刚才说的，帕特，斯科特平时都是这样的。

Normally, Scott Bet- and like you just said, Pat, normally, Scott's like this.

他通常非常

He's usually very

对事实的掌握非常精准。

precise in command of his facts.

他会纠正新闻媒体的错误。

He'll correct the the the news media.

是的。

Yeah.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

好吧，让我们

Well, let's

退回去看一下这里的事实。

back up to look at the facts here.

五角大楼正派遣一艘两栖攻击舰，至少运送2500名海军陆战队员前往伊朗，与此同时，美国正努力重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，而油价正在飙升。

Pentagon sending assault ship at least 2,500 marines towards Iran as US works to reopen Strait Of Hormuz while oil prices spike.

这是几天前的事。

This is a couple days ago.

是的。

Yes.

但这个消息已经出来了，罗布，他们正在这么做。

But that story came out that they are doing that, Rob.

这是不是在

Is this It's on the

路上。

way.

新闻正在报道这件事。

News reporting on this.

这是不是一上来就直接的？

Is it right off the bat?

对。

Yep.

去吧。

Go for it.

一个多小时前，我们得到消息，2500名海军陆战队员和另一艘军舰现已部署到中东。

Over an hour ago, we did get word that 2,500 marines and another warship are now being deployed to the Middle East.

这是埃里卡·布朗报道的美伊持续冲突中的若干进展之一。

This is one of several developments in the fighting that continues between The US and Iran that Erica Brown is reporting on.

五角大楼周五确认，一架支持伊朗行动的美军加油机上的六名机组人员全部遇难。

The Pentagon Friday confirmed the deaths of all six crew members aboard a US military refueling tanker that was supporting operations in Iran.

官员表示，另一架飞机也参与了此次事件，但安全着陆，他们认为这起事故可能涉及空中相撞。

Officials say a second aircraft was also involved but landed safely, and they believe the incident may have involved a midair collision.

据称，这并非敌方或友方火力造成的后果。

It was not the result, said, was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的威胁继续扰乱全球石油供应。

Iran's threats to the Strait Of Hormuz continue to disrupt the global oil supply.

特朗普政府正在考虑部署美国海军军舰，为通过该水道的油轮护航。

The Trump administration is considering deploying US Navy warships to escort oil tankers through the waterway.

伊朗仍然有能力伤害商业航运中的友军。

Iran still has the capability to harm friendly forces in commercial shipping.

这可能对汤姆来说，

It can possibly Tom,

想法。

thoughts.

他们所谈论的那艘船是美国海军的‘的黎波里号’，这一点已得到多个消息来源确认。

So the ship they're talking about is USS Tripoli that was confirmed multiple sources.

‘的黎波里号’是一艘两栖攻击舰，罗布可能正在查这个，

The USS Tripoli is a, Rob's probably looking that up, this is basically an amphibious assault ship.

它被设计为登陆并打开巨大的舱门，让所有两栖车辆和装备蜂拥而出。

It is designed to go ashore and open up this great big door where all the amphibious vehicles and everything come pouring out.

‘的黎波里号’的用途之一，就是将部队送上岸以执行军事行动。

The purpose of The US Tripoli is one thing, to bring troops ashore in a military action.

它不是医院船，也不是兵营船或运输船。

It's not a hospital ship, It's not a barrack ship or a transport ship.

这东西就是为此而设计的。

This thing, that's what it's made to do.

在霍尔木兹岛发生那件事后，包括我在内的许多人推测，策略可能是，帕特，派兵前往，因为那里有2500名海军陆战队员。

And after what happened on Kharg Island, many people, including me, are speculating that the strategy may be, Pat, to bring, because there's 2,500 Marines.

这是海军陆战队远征部队，你知道这意味着什么，这些人是受过训练、像应急响应者一样率先出击的部队。

This is the Marine Corps Expeditionary Force, which means, you know what that means, those are the guys that are trained to go in, kind of like first responders, first guys out.

而美国号两栖攻击舰正前往那里。

And you have The US Tripoli going there.

所以第一，他向伊拉克传递了这一信息。

So number one, he's sending that message to Iraq.

第二，你把2500名海军陆战队员投送到霍尔木兹岛，直接上去关闭阀门，让他们无法出口石油。

Number two, you throw 2,500 Marines on Kharg Island and you just go up and you shut off the valve so that they can't export the oil.

你已经打击了所有支持该行动的军事设施。

You've already hit all the military things that are supporting it.

所以我认为这相当重要。

So I think this is pretty significant.

我也这么认为。

I think so as well.

但别忘了皮特·赫克斯说过的话。

But remember what Pete Hecks had said.

他说，事情发生两三天后，总统有权决定是否派遣部队。

He said two, three days into it, the president has the ability to send troops if he chooses to send so.

所以他们说了这一点。

So they said that.

现在，你知道，批评者们会跳出来说：等等。

Now, you know, the the the the critics are gonna come out and say, wait a minute.

这就是关键所在。

This is this is the thing.

我们原本以为这会像委内瑞拉那样，不会有任何地面部队介入。

We thought this was gonna be like Venezuela in out, there was not not gonna be any troops on the ground.

你

Do you

让我问你一个问题，帕特。

let let me ask you a question, Pat.

你觉得他们真的这么想吗？

Do you think that they thought that?

你觉得总统是被皮特·赫克特 briefed 的吗？

You think the president was briefed by by Pete Heckt.

赛斯和这些人都跟总统说：‘总统先生，这会是速战速决的。’

Seth and all these people like, hey, mister president, this is gonna be in and out.

但根据我所知

But from what

看起来我不这么认为。

it seems I don't think so.

好吧。

I okay.

因为

Because

不。

I No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

我认为从一开始就不行。

I think from the beginning, no.

听着，你要么相信这个人的直觉，要么不相信。

Look, you either trust this guy's instinct or you don't.

你拿定主意吧。

Just make up your mind.

对我来说就是这么简单。

It's that simple for me.

你要么信任特朗普的直觉，要么不信。

You either trust Trump's instinct or you don't.

要么他只是运气好才成为亿万富翁。

Either he is a guy that got lucky to become a billionaire.

他运气好，让一档节目连续十多年位居榜首。

He got lucky to run a show that was number one for ten plus years.

要么他运气好，第一次当上总统，然后你知道，第二次遭遇了那些事，结果在耳朵中弹后还能实现史上最惊人的逆转，再次胜出——但你认为他是靠运气，还是不够聪明，还是你相信他确实有本事。

Either he got lucky to get become a president one time and then, you know, he gets whatever happened with the second time and then wins again after getting shot at in his ear and somehow pulls off the greatest comeback, but you think he got lucky or he's not that smart or you believe he is.

如果你属于相信他有本事的那一派，你就必须信任他在情况室里做出的决策是正确的。

If you're part of the camp that you believe he is, you have to trust this instinct that in the situation room, he's making the right decisions.

但你要明确自己站在哪一边。

But pick and choose who you are.

你不能一边说‘我投票支持他’，一边又说‘我没支持这个’。

You can't just be like, I voted for I didn't vote for this.

你并没有掌握全部信息。

You don't have all the information.

所以，你要么投票支持——你知道的，当你雇一个人当高管并给了他这个职位时，要么就信任他，就像前几天我们和其中一个要雇用的人谈话时，我们问：你希望这个人做这件事吗？

So you either voted for like, you know, when you hire somebody to be an executive and you gave them the job, either trust like the other day we had a conversation with one of the people we're hiring and it was like, so do you want this person to do this?

还是希望这个人汇报这件事？

Or do you want that person to report this?

我们雇这个人到底是为了做什么？

Said, what do we hire this person to do this?

为什么我们不从第一天起就赋予他这个权力？

Why are we not giving them that authority from day one?

如果我们共同做出了决定，那就赋予这个人做这些决定的权力，否则就不要。

If we collectively are making a decision, empower the man to make those decisions or not.

对吧？

Right?

那我们继续下一个话题。

So then let's go to next.

我不是在跟你说话。

And I'm not talking to you.

我是在对所有观看这段视频的人说话。

I'm talking to anybody that's watching this.

所以，如果你相信这种直觉，就不要在心里想：当你做出投资或承担风险时，人们最常问的问题是什么？

So if you do trust this instinct, do not think in a room, what is the one question anybody asks when you make an investment or you take a risk?

人们最常问的那一个问题是什么？你心里一直在问这个问题。

What's the one question anybody And you ask it in your mind all the time.

当你和一个人约会，准备结婚时，你会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you're dating somebody about to get married.

当你准备买房时，你会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you're about to buy a house.

当你准备创业时，你会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you're about to start a business.

当你投资一家公司时，你会问这个问题。

You ask a question when you make an investment into a company.

当你准备要孩子时，你会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you're about to have a kid.

当你搬到另一个州时，你会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you move to a different state.

当你做任何事情时，你都会问这个问题。

You ask this question when you do anything you do ask this question.

你在脑子里每天24/7都在问这个问题。

You ask this question 20 fourseven in your brain.

你甚至都没意识到。

You don't even know it.

这个问题是什么？

What's the question?

这是正确的吗？

This the right

这么说对吗？

to say?

我是否已经下定决心？

Am I committed?

除此之外，我们还问什么其他问题？

Aside from that, what's the other question we ask?

相信我。

Trust me.

你经常问这个问题。

You ask this question all the time.

有一本书叫《如何警告并开始生活》，作者是戴尔·卡内基。

There's a book called How to Warning and Start Living by Dale Carney.

你是一百年前写下的。

You wrote it a hundred years ago.

问题是，最坏的情况会是什么？

The question is, what is the worst thing that can happen?

你经常问这个问题。

You ask this question all the time.

我们都这样。

We all do.

这段关系中最坏的情况会是什么？

What is the worst thing that's gonna happen in this relationship?

这段关系不会成功。

It's not gonna work out.

她会这么做。

She's gonna do this.

他会这么做。

He's gonna do this.

如果我们搬到另一个州，最坏的情况会是什么？

What's the worst thing that's gonna happen if we move to the other state?

天哪。

Oh my God.

我得搬回去。

I gotta move back.

我得这么做。

I gotta do this.

我要失去一个人。

I'm gonna lose someone.

那么，你认为特朗普没问过的最糟糕的情况是什么？

So what's the worst you don't think Trump asked?

最糟糕的情况会是什么？

What's the worst thing that's gonna happen?

我们派兵。

We send troops.

无人机，持久的作战经历。

Drones, protracted experience.

好吧，那我该怎么办？

Okay, what do I do then?

那我接下来该做什么？

And what do I do then?

那我们接下来该怎么办？

Then what do we do?

那我们就这么做。

Then we do this.

如果他们这么做，我们就得指出这一点。

If they do this, then we got to call this out.

你不觉得他问过那些问题吗？

You don't think he asked those questions?

你不觉得一个在纽约谈成所有交易的人，习惯于坐在那里，问清楚他到底做了哪些交易吗？

You don't think a guy that negotiate all the deals in New York is used to, you know, sitting there and, you know, asking What are the deals that he did?

他想买一块地，但对方不愿意和他们合作，因为他们涉及的是什么来着？

He wanted to buy a property and the guy wouldn't work with them because they were dealing with, what do you call it?

不是空气。

Not air.

权利。

Rights.

空气权。

Air rights.

我不确定你知不知道纽约房地产有空气权。

I don't know if you know New York real estate has air rights.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，你不能在某个高度以上建造，因为我必须比你更高。

Like, you you can't build above certain thing because I have to be the higher one than you.

他说，是的，我很有耐心。

He's like, yeah, I got patience.

这很好。

It's good.

我很有耐心。

I'm patient.

我们会慢慢来。

We'll take our time.

这家伙从事这类事情已经很久了。

This guy has been doing these types of things for a long time.

所以你要么相信他的直觉。

So you're either I trust his instincts.

很好。

Great.

那就相信吧。

Then trust.

当你相信直觉时，这个人并不会每次都对。

When you trust instincts, the guy's not going to get it right all the time.

或者怎么样？

Or guess what?

你不相信他的直觉，这也没关系。

You don't trust his instinct, which is fine.

我不相信拜登的直觉。

I didn't trust Biden's instinct.

我不相信。

I didn't.