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亚当，你的观点是什么？
Adam, what's your point?
未来前景光明。
The future looks bright.
好吧。
All right.
所以，你现在无论打开电视、新闻、社交媒体还是其他任何东西，都会看到各种片段和视频。
So you cannot turn on the TV right now or the news or social or anything without seeing clips, videos.
我不确定我们是不是在直播，罗布。
I don't know if we're live or not, Rob.
我没在屏幕上看到自己。
I don't see myself on the screen.
有事情发生的时候，你是看不到的。
You can't see it with something going on.
还有很多事情要讲。
There's a bunch of things to cover.
我们有很多内容。
We got a bunch of it.
我们会自己在这里过一遍。
We'll go through here ourselves.
我要感谢团队专程赶来。
I want to thank the team for coming out here.
我们真的是临时才叫的。
We literally called this last minute.
我们今天早上刚从拉斯维加斯回来，就在今天凌晨十二点半左右。
We just got back from Vegas this morning, literally this morning at midnight, 12:30.
摄制组都回家了。
The crew went home.
我们说，各位，有紧急情况，大家都来了。
We said, guys, emergency, everyone showed up.
所以我们有很多事情要谈。
And so we got a lot of things to cover.
对于一些正在观看我们节目的观众，你们支持我们作为独立媒体所做的工作，并希望看到我们成长到数千万订阅者，这对我们来说意义重大。
And for some of you guys that are watching us, that you support what we do as an independent media outlet, and you want to see us grow and get to tens of millions of subscribers, it would mean a lot to us.
如果你们能订阅我们的频道，将帮助这个信息传播得更广。
You would help this message get even bigger if you can subscribe to the channel.
我们51%的观众尚未订阅频道，这意味着你们每周都会定期观看，却从未点击过那个关键的订阅按钮。
51% of our viewers are not subscribed to the channel, which means you watch it regularly on a weekly basis, but you've never clicked that one magical button of subscribe.
如果你们还没订阅，请帮我们一个忙，去点击一下吧。
If you haven't yet, do us a favor, do that.
你们的订阅也会大大帮助我们提升算法推荐。
You'll help us out a lot with the algorithms as well.
说了这么多，我们直接进入正题。
With that being said, let's get right into it.
有很多报道，非常多的报道。
There are many reports, many, many reports.
刚刚有一则新报道传来，就在过去的三十分钟内，据称哈梅内伊遭到了针对。
One report that just came in, and this is one that just came in minutes ago, the last thirty minutes, allegedly allegedly Khamenei was targeted.
一枚导弹击中了他的住所。
A strike was hit his compound.
如果这一说法属实，我认为——文尼，如果我没记错的话——这来自以色列的情报。
And if if this is an accurate statement that's being made, and I think this came, Vinny, if I'm not mistaken, from the Israeli intelligence that
传回了阿萨恩的消息。
came back at Assain.
《每日邮报》称，以色列媒体指出，越来越多的迹象表明，伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊在美以空袭中身亡。
Daily Mail said, Israeli media says growing indications that Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in US and Israeli airstrikes.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这条最新消息又传来了。
So this report just came in again.
据称，我们将逐一梳理那些被针对的人员。
This is allegedly we'll go through a bunch of different people that were targeted.
但是，罗布，我认为这是个好主意。
But, Rob, I think it's a good idea.
先从特朗普总统的声明说起。
Just start off with, president Trump's message.
他戴着一顶美国帽子，今天早上早些时候说了这些话。
While he's wearing a USA hat, here's what he had to say early this morning.
继续。
Go forward.
致伟大的、自豪的伊朗人民，我今晚要说，你们自由的时刻即将到来。
To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.
待在掩体里。
Stay sheltered.
不要离开家。
Don't leave your home.
外面非常危险。
It's very dangerous outside.
炸弹将会在各处落下。
Bombs will be dropping everywhere.
当我们完成时，接管你们的政府。
When we are finished, take over your government.
这将是你们可以夺取的。
It will be yours to take.
这可能是你们几代人中唯一的机会。
This will be probably your only chance for generations.
多年来，你们一直寻求美国的帮助，但从未得到。
For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it.
没有一位总统愿意做我今晚愿意做的事。
No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight.
现在你们有一位总统，正给予你们想要的东西，那么让我们看看你们如何回应。
Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, So let's see how you respond.
美国正以压倒性的力量和毁灭性的武力支持你们。
America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.
现在是时候掌控你们的命运，释放那近在咫尺的繁荣与辉煌未来了。
Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.
这是采取行动的时刻。
This is the moment for action.
不要让它溜走。
Do not let it pass.
愿上帝保佑美国武装部队的勇敢男女。
May God bless the brave men and women of America's armed forces.
愿上帝保佑美利坚合众国。
May God bless The United States Of America.
愿上帝保佑你们所有人。
May God bless you all.
顺便说一下，当他发表这一讲话时，他对批评者尽可能坦诚直率，他们会看到他说过：会有伤亡。
And by and by the way, when he gave this message, he was as honest and upfront as possible with critics coming out and they're gonna see he says, there's gonna be casualties.
这不会属于我们。
This is not going to be ours.
维尼刚才我们谈话时也提到过，他特别指出可能会有伤亡，这就是战争。
Vinnie was saying it earlier a minute ago when we were talking, but he specifically said there could be casualties and this is war.
所以，我们所讨论的这根本就是一场战争。
So it's not like it's not a war of what we're talking about.
并不是发生在委内瑞拉并迅速撤离的那些事情。
It's not what happened that was immediate going in Venezuela and leaving.
我记得当时我和他谈话时，他说：每一次不同的任务，我们都必须保持灵活，因为情况可能会变化。
I remember when he and I were speaking, he said to me, he says, every different mission, we have to stay fluid because things could change.
但让我先梳理一下今天早上收到的一些更新信息。
But let me kind of go through some of the updates that's been given this morning.
通常情况下，当这种事发生时，你会以为他们会趁半夜发动袭击，比如凌晨一点或三点。
You know, normally when something like this happened, you would think they would attack in the middle of the night, say 01:00 in the morning, 03:00 in the morning.
今天早上汤姆提到了一个很好的观点，但这次袭击发生在当地时间早上八点十五分，这意味着你刚醒来，正在吃早餐，突然就遭到了袭击。
This was a good point that Tom was making this morning, but the attack was around eight, 08:15 their time, which means you wake up, you're having breakfast, boom, there's an attack.
所以，这根本不是常规时间的袭击。
So it's not like it's a regular time.
对我来说，我曾在伊朗首都生活过，当时伊拉克的萨达姆发动战争的时候。
And for me, I lived in Iran in the capital when the war happened with Saddam, with Iraq.
我记得很多这些故事，真的很悲惨。
And I remember a lot of these stories and it's tragic.
但让我给你一些最新的更新。
But let me give you some of these updates.
所以这是第一点。
So that's one.
他们袭击了三个伊朗核设施。
They hit three Iran nuclear sites.
他们袭击了福尔多。
They hit Fordeaux.
他们袭击了伊斯法罕，还有纳坦兹。
They hit Esfahan and they had Natanz.
路透社报道称，福尔多遭到了六枚钻地炸弹袭击，其他地点则被特朗普描述为遭到了三十枚战斧导弹打击。
Reuters reports six bunker buster bombs on Fordeaux, 30 Tomahawk missiles at other sites described by Trump.
据路透社报道，B-2轰炸机显然被使用并参与了此次行动。
According to Reuters, obviously, the B-two bombers were used and they were involved.
据报道，德黑兰的大学街和贾马哈迪地区也遭到袭击。
Tehran strikes reported around University Street and Jamhadi areas as well.
多个省份，包括埃兹拉罕、埃兰和霍姆，都受到了袭击。
Multiple provinces, including Ezrahan, Elam and Hom were hit.
已确认伊朗对其他国家的目标实施了打击。
Confirmed hits in other countries from Iran.
所以伊朗的袭击已经展开。
So Iran attacks out.
以色列也遭到了袭击。
Israel's been hit.
网上流传着许多以色列遭袭的视频片段。
There's been many clips of Israel being hit.
巴林也遭到了袭击。
Bahrain was hit.
我认为美国的一个军事基地也遭到了袭击，地点在卡塔尔和阿联酋，阿联酋有一人死亡。
And I think a US military base, was hit Qatar, UAE, one dead in UAE.
约旦遭到袭击，沙特阿拉伯也对沙特境内的美军基地进行了攻击。
Jordan was hit Saudi Arabia, and they were also firing at US bases in Saudi.
随后，美联社报道称，伊朗首先向以色列发射了无人机，然后袭击了巴林、科威特、卡塔尔及其他地点的美军设施。
And then AP reported that Iran's first launched the drones towards Israel, then struck US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and other locations.
巴林已确认美军第五舰队服务中心遭到袭击。
Bahrain has confirmed they strike on US's fifth fleet service center.
罗布，如果你有击中第五舰队的那段视频，你实际上能看到那个画面。
Rob, if you have that clip of hitting the fifth fleet, you actually see the clip.
有几个人正开车经过第五舰队，你就能看到他们。
There's a couple of guys that are driving by the fifth fleet and you see them.
他们正在看视频录像，突然间，第五舰队就被击中了。
They're looking at the video recording and boom, the fifth fleet gets hit.
就是这个。
This is it.
是这个吗？
Is this the one?
我觉得就是这个。
I think this is the one.
对。
Yeah.
这是其中一个被击中的机组人员。
This is one of the crews that got hit right there.
所以，我的意思是，这很悲剧，但现在已经是一场全面战争，许多国家都卷入其中。
So, I mean, is this is tragic, but it's a full on war and a lot of countries are now involved.
但我继续说。
But, I'll continue.
伊朗国家媒体报道称，至少有一次，记住，这是伊朗方面的说法。
Iran state media reported that at least on one instance, again, remember, this is Iran saying this.
在米纳的一所女子学校遭到袭击，造成四十人死亡，四十五人受伤。
Forty killed, forty five wounded in a strike on a girl's school in Mina.
阿布扎比有一人死亡。
One person killed in Abu Dhabi.
俄罗斯称这次袭击是无端的。
Russia called the strike an unprovoked.
记住，俄罗斯是在为自己的立场辩护。
Remember Russia's defending their side.
法国、英国和德国表示他们没有参与这次袭击，但谴责了伊朗的报复性攻击。
France, UK, and Germany said they were not involved in the strike, but condemned Iran's retaliatory attacks.
他们敦促伊朗坐到谈判桌前。
And they urged them to come to the table to negotiate.
根据福克斯新闻首席国家安全记者詹妮弗·格里芬的说法，被袭击的地区包括伊朗议会、国家最高委员会、情报部和伊朗原子能机构。
And in areas that have been targeted according to the chief national security correspondent at Fox News, Jennifer Griffin, Iranian parliament, national supreme, council, ministry of intelligence, Iranian's atomic energy agency.
新闻机构遭遇了网络攻击。
Cyber attacks have taken place on news agencies.
伊朗的互联网已中断。
The Internet is out in Iran.
平民很难沟通，也无法了解世界各地的情况以及最新的动态。
Tough for civilians to be able to communicate and see what's going on around the world as well as what updates are taking place.
他们不知道媒体是如何报道他们的。
They don't know what the news is saying about them.
国防部长据称被列为目标，随后司法部门也被据称列为目标。
Defense minister targeted allegedly ahead of the judiciary targeted allegedly.
这非常重要，因为正是他给大量抗议者判处了死刑。
And that's very important because that was the one that was putting a lot of many death sentences on protesters.
所以他是个极其残忍的人。
So he's a very, very vicious guy.
他就像巴西和伊朗版本的亚历山德拉·德莫拉埃斯，但更糟糕。
He's like an Alessandra de Moraes, except worse of Brazil and Iran.
然后他们显然针对了阿里·哈梅内伊。
And then they've obviously, you know, targeting Ali Khamenei.
当然，在我们梳理这些信息时，我们会关注这些事情。
Of course, we'll be looking at things, as, as we're going through this.
但让我给你一个我的看法。
But let me give you an idea from me.
我收到了很多人的消息。
I'm getting messaged by a lot of people.
嘿，媒体。
Hey, media.
嘿，你能过来吗？
Hey, can you come on?
你能来吗？
Can you come?
还有很多来自世界各地的朋友和家人在给我发消息。
Also a lot of different friends, family from around the world that are messaging.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
你感觉如何？
How do you feel?
你的想法是什么？
What are your thoughts?
这就是我能告诉你的。
This is what I can tell you.
最让我有共鸣的视频，是看到伊朗人在国内跳舞的画面。
The video that resonates with me the most was seeing videos of Iranians dancing in Iran.
我不知道你有没有看过这个。
And I don't know if you've seen this.
所以你想想看。
So think about it.
所有发表意见的人，那都是个人观点。
Everybody that says anything, it's opinions.
但那些身在伊朗的人，情况就完全不同了。
But people that are in there in Iran, it's a different story.
他们憎恨这个政权。
They hate this regime.
超过80%的伊朗人憎恨这个政权。
80 plus percent of Iranians hate this regime.
他们希望这个政权消失。
They want it to be gone.
他们渴望自由。
They want to be free.
他们也想像你这样观看这段视频时尽情享受生活。
They want to enjoy themselves just like you that's watching this.
想想你现在观看这个节目时拥有的基本自由。
Think about the basic freedoms you have right now that's watching this show.
你可以表达自己的观点。
You have an opinion.
你希望说出某些想法。
You want to say certain things.
你希望获得自由。
You want to be free.
你希望走出去。
You want to go out.
你想享受自己。
You want to enjoy yourself.
在伊朗，你没有这些奢侈的自由。
You don't have those luxuries in Iran.
看看这段伊朗人跳舞庆祝的视频。
Watch this clip of people in Iran celebrating dancing.
顺便说一下，这些视频来自伊朗各地。
And by the way, these videos are coming from all over the place in Iran.
好了，罗布，你来吧。
Go ahead, Rob.
他们在跳舞，他们在庆祝。
Dancing, they're celebrating.
所以你可以在这里暂停一下，罗布。
So you can pause it right there, Rob.
这是一种艺术形式。
That's a form of art.
他们想要自由。
They want to be free.
他们想要自由。
They want to be free.
这件事最令人震惊的是，罗布，我发给你一张七十年代伊朗女性支持霍梅尼上台的照片。
What is wild about this whole thing is, Rob, I sent you a picture from seventies of Iranian women supporting Khamenei coming in.
罗布，我觉得你有这张照片。
And this picture, Rob, I think you have it.
你 somewhere 有它。
You have it somewhere.
你往左边找，就在那里。
You'll find it right there to the left.
如果你往左边看，就是那个。
If you go right there to the left, that one right there.
当你看到这些照片时，我理解这些照片，我来告诉你为什么我理解这些照片。
When you see these pictures, I understand these pictures and I'll tell you why I understand these pictures.
这是一位左翼伊朗女性在庆祝霍梅尼1979年回国，当时人们以为他会像现代的甘地一样和平开明。
This is leftist Iranian woman celebrating Khomeini's arrival in 1979 and how he was supposed to be a peaceful Gandhi modern day.
一切都会变得美好。
Everything was going to be great.
但后来他杀死了三万名左翼人士。
And then he later killed 30,000 leftists.
他处决了他们。
He executed them.
顺便说一下，我这么说，是因为这件事与我息息相关——我母亲就是当时在外面抗议的人之一。
By the way, I say this, and the reason why this is very close to me is because my mother was one of them that was outside protesting.
我父母结婚了。
My mom and my dad were married.
我父亲反对霍梅尼回国。
My dad was against Khomeini coming back.
我母亲却支持他，因为伊朗当时有一个叫‘两天党’的政党。
My mother was supportive because there was a party in Iran called the two day party.
他们说，不，这些富人，这些富人，所有的石油，看看他们是怎么用这些石油钱的。
And they said, no, these rich people, these rich people, all this oil, look what they're doing with all this oil money.
那伊朗人拥有更多自由又怎样呢？
And so what if Iranians have more freedom?
但你看他们都在做什么。
But look what they're doing.
霍梅尼要回来了，他对咱们说，我们都会得到免费的手机。
Khomeini is gonna come back and he said to us, we're all gonna get free phones.
我们都会得到免费的食物。
We're all gonna get free food.
我们都会得到免费的大米。
We're all gonna get free rice.
这就是他传达给他们的信息。
This is his message that he was given to them.
他是个公正的人。
He's a fair man.
他会是个好人。
He's going to be good.
那么最终会发生什么？
And then what ends up happening?
这种混乱。
This chaos.
但如果你是美国观众，看着这一切，我们都看过民调，一年前查理·柯克做过一项民调。
But if you're American watching this and we've all seen the polls, there was a poll that Charlie Kirk ran, I think a year ago.
他说：你希望我们对伊朗开战吗？
And he says, do you want to see us go to war with Iran?
我认为超过80%的人说不，也许90%的人说不。
And I think some 80 plus percent said no, maybe 90% said no.
这项民调是公开的。
That poll is out there.
对于看到这项民调的美国人来说，这就是那个民调吗？
For Americans that see that poll, is that the one?
88%。
88%.
对于看过这项民调的美国人来说，我也看过。
For Americans who have seen this poll and I've seen it as well.
查理当时正和一些朋友吃晚饭。
Charlie, was, having dinner with, some of his friends.
是昨晚，还是前天晚上？
Was it last night, last night or two nights ago?
我们在拉斯维加斯。
We were in Vegas.
昨晚？
Last night?
可能是昨晚。
Could have been last night.
是的。
Yeah.
两天前在拉斯维加斯，我们正在聊天、讲故事。
Two nights ago in Vegas and we're having conversations and stories.
如果你看过这个民调并说，帕特，美国人不希望我们在附近卷入战争。
If you're somebody that's watched this and you've seen this poll and you're saying, Pat, Americans don't want to go to war where we're around.
我明白，我理解。
I get I understand.
我完全理解。
I fully understand.
你不希望看到这样的事情发生。
You don't want to see something like this taking place.
我完全明白。
I fully get it.
所以对我来说，作为一个曾经在那里生活过、了解他们给所有人带来的暴行、了解伊朗当前政权多么憎恨你们拥有自由的人而言。
So to me, as somebody who has lived there, knows the atrocities they bring to everybody and knows how much the current regime of Iran hates you having freedom.
憎恨美国所代表的一切。
Hates everything America stands for.
憎恨西方意识形态所代表的一切。
Hates everything the Western ideology stands for.
他们不喜欢我们的立场和生活方式。
They don't like what we stand for and how we live.
他们对此深恶痛绝。
They hate it.
但对于那些说，帕特，我们不想打仗的美国人来说。
But for Americans that are saying, Pat, but we don't want to go to war.
我也理解这一点。
I get that as well.
这并不是一件容易的事。
It's not an easy thing.
这将会很残酷。
It's going to be nasty.
这将会很惨烈。
It's going to be ugly.
但愿如此，这件事不会拖得太久，那些被批评并质疑‘如果这事拖下去怎么办’的人们也不会受苦。
And God willing, it's not going to be something that's prolonged for all the people that are criticized and saying, what if this thing drags out?
这是合理的批评。
Fair criticism.
我希望能几周内结束，但愿越快越好，尽快完成。
I'm hopeful it goes a few weeks, God willing, less as soon as possible to get it done.
如果是我们的胜利，那就太好了。
If it's ours, great.
但我们也要现实一点，意识到这场战争可能并不受很多人欢迎。
But we have to also be realistic and realize that this may not be a popular war that a lot of people want.
其他人做的民调显示了相反的结果。
Others ran polls that said the other way.
是的，我们希望看到这件事发生。
Yes, we want to see this happen.
但我小时候住在伊朗。
But I lived in Iran as a kid.
我记得当时的恐惧、恐慌、政权和袭击，以及小时候外出时那种不自由的感觉。
And I remember the fears, the alarm, the regime, the attacks and what it was like as a kid going outside, you weren't free.
我第一次感受到自由，是我们去德国的时候。
And the first time I got a taste of freedom was when we went to Germany.
我当时想，等等，这竟然真的存在。
I said, wait a minute, this actually exists.
然后我们去了美国。
And then we went to The States.
这真的存在。
This actually exists.
确实存在。
It does.
所以我理解美国人对这件事的担忧，因为你们是发自内心地思考。
So I understand Americans being concerned about this because you're thinking from heart.
你们有良知，坐在那里想着：我不希望看到这样的事情发生。
You have a heart and you're sitting there saying, I don't want to see this.
我不希望再看到另一个阿富汗。
I don't want to see another Afghanistan.
我不希望看到这样的事情发生。
I don't want to see something like this taking place.
但这就是为什么像总统这样的重要职位并非人人都能胜任。
But this is why having a big job like the job the president has is not for everybody.
你必须做出一些艰难的决定。
You have to make some tough decisions.
而这些决定意味着你可能会失去很多人的支持。
And those decisions means you may have a lot of people that are not supporting you.
别忘了，他是什么时候发表国情咨文演讲的？
Keep in mind, he just had the state of the union speech when?
周二晚上。
Tuesday night.
三天后、四天后，他们就发动攻击，逼着他做决定。
Three days later, four days later, they're attacking and they're going after to make a decision here.
这可能会让他们在中期选举中获得提升并获得支持，也可能在中期选举中给他们带来巨大的打击。
This could end up either getting them to elevate and help with midterms or hurt them in a massive way when it goes into midterms.
但现实是，我投票支持这个人进入谈判室，让他掌握信息，并根据自己的直觉做出决定。
But the reality of it is I voted for this man to be in a negotiating room, having access to the information and make the decisions based on his instinct.
我非常认可这个人有勇气去做许多总统都不敢做的事。
And I give this man a lot of credit for having the courage to do what a lot of presidents couldn't do.
尽管他们没有那样做，天知道世界上有多少人因此丧生。
And while they didn't do that, God knows how many people were killed over there in the world.
伊朗多年来变得更强大了，世界并没有变得更安全。
It's not a safer place because Iran got stronger over the years.
这就是我的看法。
So that's my thoughts.
我当然还有其他事情要谈。
I got obviously other things to cover here as well.
不过，汤姆，我接下来听你的。
But Tom, I'll come to you.
你现在在想什么？
What's on your mind right now?
我关心的是，人们需要引起注意。
What's on my mind is people need to pay attention.
美国不仅仅是对伊朗的某个设施和其他地点进行了精确打击和轰炸。
The United States didn't just surgically strike a compound and other things and bomb those locations in Iran.
事情并不仅仅是这样。
It didn't just do that.
当时还有全球范围的制裁。
There were sanctions on a global scale.
还有谈判。
There were negotiations.
之后又出台了更多的制裁。
Then there were more sanctions.
就在上周，贾里德·库什纳和惠特科夫还在做最后的努力，试图进行进一步的谈判。
As recently as last week, Jared Kushner and Whitcoff were in a last ditch effort for additional negotiations.
不要提纯铀来制造炸弹。
Don't refine uranium to make bombs.
这是我们不可逾越的红线。
That is our red line.
然后我们等待他们进入同一个房间。
Then we waited for them to be in the same room.
有人说了话，或者情报部门获取了信息。
Somebody talked or intelligence got it.
我们知道他们在哪里。
We knew where they were.
我们知道房间里是谁，帕特。
We knew who was in the room, Pat.
我们知道他们什么时候会在那个房间里。
And we knew when they were gonna be in the room.
然后我们进行了精确打击。
Then we surgically struck.
你知道吗，今天早上政权内部幸存的将军们和相关人员在想什么？
You know what inside the regime, the surviving generals and people this morning are thinking about?
是谁说的？他们是怎么知道的？
Who talked or how did they know?
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
多年来，以色列的情报网络和美国中情局在渗透这方面表现得极为有效。
The Israeli spy network and the American CIA has been incredibly effective over the years infiltrating this.
我们知道谁在房间里，知道他们确切的位置，也知道里面发生了什么。
We knew who was in the room, we knew exactly where they were gonna be, we knew what was going on.
所以我们不只是炸了一个设施。
So we didn't just bomb a compound.
我认为我们还炸毁了他们彼此之间的信任。
I think we also bombed trust in each other.
在伊朗内部，他们正在怀疑，间谍网络还在吗？
Inside Iran, they're wondering, is the spy network?
美国和以色列的电子监控更有效吗？
Is the electronic surveillance better for the Americans and Israelis?
记住，我们不仅仅只是轰炸了一下。
And remember, we didn't just bomb.
这是一条漫长链条的终点，其目标是：你们不会拥有核武器来攻击我们自己、无辜国家或以色列。
This is the end of a long line that ended with, you will not have nuclear weapons to fire at ourselves or innocent countries or Israel.
那就是红线。
That was the red line.
文尼。
Vinny.
我的意思是，听好了，因为我要从两个角度来说，毕竟你已经知道接下来会发生什么。
I mean, listen, because I'm gonna play both sides of it because you already know what's gonna be happening.
我能想象聊天区里在说什么。
I can imagine what's in the chat.
这个是以色列，你们是那个以色列。
Israel this, you guys are Israel that.
我们来两边都分析一下。
Let's play both sides.
内塔尼亚胡是否曾在国会和所有采访中声称伊朗拥有核弹？
Has BB Netanyahu been on camera in Congress and on every interview saying Iran has a bomb?
伊朗正在试图逼迫我们开战。
Iran push trying to push us to go to war.
当然没错。
Absolutely yes.
明白吗？
Okay?
伊朗是不是一再宣称要消灭美国？
Has Iran said death to America over and over?
我想让人们理解这一点。
And I want people to understand this.
这句话并不是说‘消灭帕特里克’或‘消灭文尼’，也不是说‘消灭佛罗里达所有人’或‘消灭加利福尼亚所有人’。
That statement isn't, hey, death to Patrick or death to Vinny or death to everybody in Florida or death to everybody in California.
“死亡针对美国”意味着我希望你们每一个人，包括你们的国家，全都死去。
Death to America, meaning I hope every single one of you dies and including your country.
我希望它从地球上彻底消失。
I hope it gets wiped off the planet.
所以有两件事是存在的。
So two things exist.
我只是好奇所有那些针对以色列的人。
I'm just curious to all the people that are going after Israel.
大家都知道，我对以色列政府的行为持批评态度，但这与犹太人民毫无关系。
And everybody knows, I'm critical towards Israel's actions as a government has nothing to do with the Jewish people.
帕特，这场运动、这场革命，是以色列进去后煽动人们起义、激怒他们、为自由而战的吗？
This movement that happened, Pat, the revolution, did Israel go in there and make the people revolt and get angry and fight for their freedom?
是谁做的？
Who did that?
这是人民自发的。
That was organic by the people.
以色列与此毫无关系。
Israel had nothing to do with it.
人们走上街头。
The people were in the streets.
已有四万多人死亡。
Over 40,000 are dead.
上帝才知道现在有多少人被关押，遭受酷刑，或者已经死去。
God knows how many are in jail right now getting tortured or are also dead.
但看看伊朗人民、国家和政权。
But look at Iran as a people, as as as the nation, as the regime.
好好想想。
Think about it.
他们的钱都没了。
Their money's gone.
这个国家被毁了。
The country's ruined.
我已经知道了。
I and I already know.
我确信这一点。
I know for a fact.
好的。
Okay.
让我停一下。
Let me stop.
对不起，我有点跑题了。
I'm sorry because I'm I'm going a little bit ahead of myself.
想想看
Think about
玛莎
Masha
不，
No,
你很好。
you're good.
还记得几年前，2021年的玛莎·阿米尼吗？
Remember Masha Amini a couple years ago, 2021?
我相信她的头巾——想想吧，你们这些左翼自由派、心理扭曲的女权主义者。
I believe her hijab think about this all you leftist liberal psycho feminist out there.
她的头巾露出了一点头发，结果他们把她活活打死了。
Her hijab showed a little bit of her her hair and they beat her to death.
他们把她打死了，却一片寂静。
They beat her to death and there was silence.
没人说一句话。
Nobody was saying anything.
明白吗？
Okay?
我希望发生的这种自由，正是为了像这样的人。
This type of thing, this type of liberation that I hope happens is for those type of people.
那个女孩，她的灵魂和生命不该蒙羞或白白牺牲。
That girl, her freaking soul, and her life not to be in shame or in vain.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
这必须发生。
It has to.
有时候你并不想这么做。
Sometimes you don't wanna do it.
我知道特朗普竞选时承诺过，没有新的战争，没有新的战争。
I know Trump ran on, you know, no new wars, no new wars.
当你被逼到绝境，不得不行动时，你就必须行动。
When you're backed into a corner and you have to do it, you have to do it.
不。
No.
哪个美国人会醒来后想：我要去打仗？
What what American wakes up and goes, I wanna go to war.
我们开战吧。
Let's go to war.
我敢保证，今天所有这些播客主持人、所有那些在地下室自诩为地缘政治专家的人，都会说‘我早说了’，然后对以色列和所有人闭嘴。
And I guarantee today, all these podcasters, all these guys in their basement that are expert geopolitical people are gonna say, told you so and this and Israel and everybody, shut up.
明白吗？
Okay?
因为没有人上街庆祝。
Because no people are dancing in the street.
罗比，你能放一下这个片段吗？
Can you show this clip, Robbie?
你告诉我，伊朗发生这种事有多糟糕，有多糟糕。
You tell me how how bad it is how bad it is that this is happening in Iran.
这是一所高中。
This is a a high school.
高中。
High school.
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他在说什么？
What's he saying?
萨达姆。
Saddam.
萨达姆，他们袭击了他。
Saddam, they hit him.
他们袭击了他。
They hit him.
看看背景里的烟雾。
And look at the look at the smoke in the background.
这些人没有在找掩护。
These people aren't running for cover.
他们在跳舞。
They're dancing.
是的。
Yeah.
我们告诉他们我们会支持他们。
We told them that we would back them up.
特朗普说我会支持你们。
Trump said I will back you up.
他们中有三万到四万人。
30 to 40,000 of them
现在听听他说了什么，你听不清他说了什么。
are now Listen to to what he said, You can't hear what he said.
倒回五秒。
Go back five seconds.
不。
No.
就倒回。
Just go back
五秒。
five seconds.
听这个孩子说。
Listen to this kid.
穿黑色衬衫的那个孩子。
This black shirt kid.
我爱特朗普。
I love Trump.
爱特朗普。
Love Trump.
特朗普。
Trump.
你打算停下来吗？
Are you gonna stop it?
我爱特朗普。
I love Trump.
在伊朗。
In Iran.
在伊朗。
In in Iran.
在伊朗。
In Iran.
我希望人们能理解那种情况的荒谬性。
I want people to grasp the levity of that situation.
一枚炸弹刚刚爆炸，可能击中了，比如，一个主要的
They a bomb just went off, and it probably hit, like, a a major
你看到学校后面的烟了吗？
You see the smoke behind the school?
伊斯兰革命卫队。
IRGC.
他们没有尖叫。
They're not screaming.
他没有逃跑。
He's not running.
我起鸡皮疙瘩了，帕特。
I got goosebumps, Pat.
他们在欢呼。
They're cheering.
我也是。
Me too.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我爱你，特朗普。
I love you, Trump.
所以，对于所有那些会躲在地下室里生气、戴着小帽子在桌上大喊大叫的人——大家都明白我说的是谁，闭嘴吧。
So for all of these people that are gonna be in their basements getting angry, yelling with their little hats on their tables, and everybody knows who I'm talking about, shut up.
人民需要这样。
The people need it.
这可不是伊拉克。
This isn't Iraq.
我们没有轰炸，也没有在CNN上开始，派出所有坦克和部队进驻。
We didn't bomb and start on CNN, have all the tanks and all the troops going in.
除非你身在其中，像他一样有他的家人，他不得不逃离那里，我不会细说我们那些无法解决的问题——比如连门都没有，我们还在为各种琐事操心。
Unless you're there, unless you're like him and have his family, that he had to flee there and has and I'm not gonna get into all the problems that we have that we can't, you know, have doors and we're worrying about stuff.
他不得不躲在桌子底下，因为有人在轰炸他，他们不得不逃命。
He had to hide under tables and shit because they were bombing him and they had to flee.
所以，对所有坐在电脑后面装作懂行的人，闭嘴吧！人民是开心的。
So for everybody that's gonna sit there and try to act like they know what the hell they're talking about behind their computers, shut the hell The people are happy.
这才是最重要的。
That's all that matters.
就这样。
That's it.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，在我看来，这是我唯一担心可能发生的事。
So to me, here's the one concern that I have on what could happen.
如果你是伊朗，那么有两个立场：美国和伊朗。
If you're Iran, so two positions, US, Iran.
如果你是美国，你必须立即把所有人带走。
If you're US, you have to immediately get everybody.
立刻。
Immediately.
立即带走所有领导人。
Immediately get all the leaders.
比如你看看他们抓到的那些人名字，罗布，我发给你一张照片。
Like if you look at the names of people they got, Rob, there's a picture that I sent you.
如果你看看他在这里清除的所有人，看看这些，维尼，我们都记得这些面孔。
If you look at all the people that he eliminated here, if you look at this here, Vinny, we remember all these faces.
一个接一个，一个接一个，一个接一个。
One by one by one by one by one.
卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。
Rasam Soleimani.
这张照片里，唯一一个被标记为‘清除’的人是谁？
Who's the only person that's missing in this picture that says eliminated?
右上角。
Top right.
右上角。
Top right.
右上角的人是谁？
Who is top right?
霍梅尼。
Khomeini.
所有没被清除的人，都是霍梅尼。
All of the ones that are not eliminated is Khomeini.
这意味着，如果他们除掉他，政权里的每个人就只剩下两个选择。
So meaning if they take him out, everybody in the regime has one of two choices.
要么是最后一刻的绝望，把一切点燃。
It's either last minute desperation, light everything up.
把你能发射的所有导弹都发射出去。
Shoot all the missiles out that you can.
对吧？
Right?
你手上所有能用的手段，最后一刻的奇迹，简直就像神风特攻队。
Everything you got going on, last minute miracle, it's almost like kamikaze.
如果我要完蛋，我就拉上所有人一起死。
If I'm going down, I'm killing everybody.
这些家伙很可能就会这么做。
That's likely that could happen with these guys.
你看过一段视频，讲的是伊朗正在准备发射导弹攻击以色列。
You saw a clip about a missile that Iran is preparing to attack because they want to attack Israel.
但关键在这里。
But here's the part.
我们听说了两艘船，对吧？
We heard about two ships, right?
有两艘船去了那里。
Two vessels that went out there.
其中一艘是什么？
One of them was what?
其中一艘是？
One of them was?
亚伯拉罕·林肯号。
Abraham Lincoln.
另一艘是福特号。
And the other one is Ford.
对吧？
Right?
杰拉尔德·福特号。
Gerald Ford.
所以福特号和林肯号去了两个不同的地方。
So Ford and Lincoln went to two different places.
福特去了以色列。
Ford went to Israel.
汤姆，你今天早上提出了一个非常好的观点，如果你不介意与观众分享的话。
Tom, you made a very good point this morning, if you don't mind sharing with the audience.
杰拉尔德·福特号航空母舰属于阿利·伯克级，是最大的航空母舰，船上配备了强大的铁穹系统。
The USS Gerald Ford is an Aegis class, the largest aircraft carrier, and it has a tremendous think of Iron Dome on a ship.
它拥有强大的拦截能力，非常强大，并且停泊在以色列海岸外。
It's got tremendous intercept capabilities, tremendous, and it is parked off the coast of Israel.
它就停靠在那里。
It is docked there.
亚伯拉罕·林肯号航空母舰曾部署在伊朗海岸外的打击范围之内。
The USS Abraham Lincoln was poised in strike force range off the coast of Iran.
所以当你看到这两件事时，等等，它们在那里做什么？
So when you look at those two things, wait, what are they doing there?
为什么杰拉尔德·福特号没有和亚伯拉罕·林肯号并排停靠？
Why isn't the Gerald Ford side by side with Abraham Lincoln?
福特号正在保护以色列。
The Gerald Ford is protecting Israel.
它就停在海岸边，随时准备应对那些未能被铁穹系统拦截的新型武器或威胁，一旦出现就立即反击。
It is sitting right there on the coast ready to defend if new arms or things that somehow penetrate or not intercepted by Iron Dome and they are it is ready to engage.
它就停在那里，这艘庞大的舰艇是我们舰队中最大、最强大的战舰。
And it sits there, this this large vessel that's the largest and the baddest of the badasses in our fleet is there.
与此同时，亚伯拉罕·林肯号正在发射打击力量，目前那些飞机正在上空投放战斧导弹。
Meanwhile, the Abraham Lincoln is launching the strike force directly the planes that are over there dropping tomahawks at this hour.
当你观察这两者时，你会发现一个进攻位置和一个防御位置。
So when you take a look at that, you have an offensive position and you have a protective position.
如果他们发射的导弹偏离了以色列，美军舰船将直接进行反击，这将构成一次侵略行为。
And if they fire a missile that misses Israel, they are going to engage directly The US ship in an aggressive act.
记住，他们已经对我们基地采取了侵略性行动。
Remember, they've already now engaged aggressively in with our bases.
因此，从今天早上起，我们已经全面投入交战。
So as of this morning, we are being a 100% engaged.
但我觉得，这种海军战略非常出色，既能保护以色列，又能同时为亚伯拉罕·林肯号创造掩护，使其能够直接进行沿海打击行动。
But this is, I think, brilliant naval strategy defending Israel and creating a cover at the same time bringing the Abraham Lincoln for direct coastal and, you know, engagement strike.
就是这个吗，罗布？你刚刚调出的那段视频？
Is that is that it, Rob, the clip you just pulled up?
是的，长官。
Yes, sir.
你能再调回刚才那一段吗？
Can you can you go to the one you just had right now a second ago?
你刚刚才展示过那段视频。
You literally just had it.
帕特，趁他操作的时候，你觉得他们最终有没有搞清楚，等霍梅尼等人不在了，谁最有可能接掌领导权？
And, Pat, while he's doing that, do you think that they finally figured out who could probably take the take the lead leadership wise once Khomeini and everybody's gone?
没有。
No.
绝对不可能。
No way.
完全不是吗？
Not at all?
你觉得他们已经有人选准备接替了吗？
Do I think they already have somebody in mind that's gonna replace?
不，如果那样的话
No, if That's gonna go
就在那儿，帕特。
there, Pat.
它会一直留在那儿。
That's gonna live there.
听好了，我们唯一知道的是，总统已经使用过‘政权更迭’这个说法。
Look, if there's one thing we know what this is, the phrase regime change has been used by the president.
我明白。
I get it.
所以这意味着，他们这么做并不是因为觉得这是一种威胁。
So meaning this, they're not doing this because it's like, it's a threat.
这是为了改变政权。
This is being done to change the regime.
结束。
Period.
对吧？
Right?
他们心里想的是谁？
Who they have in mind?
没人知道。
Nobody knows.
可能已经有人选了，也可能还没有。
May or may not already have somebody in mind.
他们正在和很多不同的人交谈。
They're talking to a lot of different people.
我不知道他有没有说过，去支持这个人或者支持那个人。
I don't know if he said, you know, go support this person or go support that person.
你没听到那句话
You didn't hear that
从他那里。
from him.
不，完全没听到。
No, not at all.
没有。
No.
他说的是，你有那个吗，罗布？
What he said is, you have that, Rob?
他说的是，这个政权很快就会离开。
This is where he says this the regime will leave soon.
说吧。
Go ahead.
一枚核武器。
Of a nuclear weapon.
这个政权很快就会明白，任何人都不应挑战美国武装部队的力量与威严。
This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces.
我在第一个任期内重建并加强了我们的军队，世界上没有任何军队能接近其力量、强度和先进性。
I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration, and there is no military on Earth even close to its power, strength, sophistication.
我的政府已采取一切可能的措施，最大限度地降低该地区美国人员的风险。
My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region.
即便如此，我并非轻率地说这句话，伊朗政权意图杀人。
Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill.
英勇的美国英雄的生命可能丧失，我们可能会有伤亡。
The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties
你听到他说的那句话了吗？
You see what he says right there?
战争中经常发生这种情况。
That often happens in war.
但我们这样做是在粉饰太平。
But we're doing this Sugar coating.
现在。
Now.
我们这样做是为了未来。
We're doing this for the future.
强大。
Powerful.
强大。
Powerful.
强大。
Powerful.
我们认识那些人。
We know those people.
任务。
Mission.
我们为每一位服役人员祈祷，他们无私地冒着生命危险，确保美国人和我们的子孙后代永远不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。
We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran.
我们祈求上帝保护所有身处险境的英雄，并相信在祂的帮助下，武装部队的男女将士必将取得胜利。
We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm's way, and we trust that with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail.
我们拥有世界上最强悍的力量，他们必将胜利。
We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.
我现在不能停下来。
I can't stop right now.
你先说吧，
Go ahead,
我能说说关于‘Yeah’的事吗？
Can I say something about Yeah?
比如，我今天看到了戴夫·史密斯。
Like, saw Dave Smith today.
他称总统为叛徒。
He called the president a traitor.
叛徒。
A traitor.
我非常好奇。
I'm I'm I'm very curious.
想在推特上发。
Wanna In a tweet.
在推特上。
In a tweet.
我想知道你真实的想法。
I wanna know your honest opinions.
如果我们只是放任伊朗去做他们想做的事，因为这些这些就像是，好吧。
If we just let Iran go and do their things, because these these are the the like, okay.
叛徒。
Traitor.
我非常
I'm very
还记得对那条推特感到好奇吗？
-Remember curious to that this tweet?
记得吗？我很久以前就预测过，奥巴马会因为伊朗无法妥善谈判而攻击它。
-Remember that I predict a long time ago that Obama will attack Iran because of its inability to negotiate properly.
好的。
-Okay.
不擅长。
-Not skilled.
他有没有提到，奥巴马给了伊朗政权一卡车一卡车的现金，帮助他们建造核武器库？
Did he put in there that who did Obama give the Iranian regime pallets and pallets of cash and help them build their nuclear freaking arsenal?
让我们先停一下。
Like, let's just take a second.
我只是非常好奇。
I'm just very curious.
我们难道就应该坐视不管，让一个高喊‘打倒美国’的国家发展核武器，为所欲为，然后呢？
Are we supposed to just sit back, let a nation that says death to America build their nukes and do whatever they want and then what?
我们难道就应该坐在那里说：‘我们反对战争，但你们尽管去造核弹吧。’
Are we supposed to just sit there and be like, listen, we're anti war, but you guys build your nukes and go for it.
我不明白他们的想法，为什么允许别人这样，这也不是在隐瞒什么。
What are they gonna do with I don't understand the the the mindset of let somebody it's not as if they're hiding.
他们并没有说：‘嘿，你们没问题。’
They're not saying, hey, you you guys are okay.
我们喜欢美国。
We like America.
我们没问题。
We're we're okay.
我们只是有点不同意。
We kinda disagree.
不。
No.
不。
No.
他们喊着要消灭你们和你们的国家，而我们却要任由他们这么做？
Death to all of you and your country, and we're supposed to let them do it.
我不喜欢这种态度。
This type of attitude, I'm not a fan of it.
我不喜欢这种态度。
I'm not a fan of it.
我们该怎么做？
What are we supposed to do?
我对那些像戴夫·史密斯这样的人非常好奇。
I'm very curious of the Dave Smiths out there.
我们该怎么做？
What are we supposed to do?
只是坐视不管，任由他们发展到能攻击我们的地步，然后呢？
Just sit back and let them get to the point where they can attack us, and then what?
然后另一条推文会说：我们早该采取行动了。
And then the other tweet's gonna be like, we should have done something sooner.
无论怎么做都赢不了。
There's no winning.
无论如何都赢不了。
There's no winning.
汤姆。
Tom.
这让我抓狂，汤姆。
It drives me crazy, Tom.
这很令人失望。
It it it's disappointing.
我的意思是，我明白戴夫在这里想表达什么。
I mean, I see what Dave is doing here.
他翻出一条旧推文，然后又回来，说你知道的，你反对街头小贩。
He's bringing up an old tweet, and then he's coming back, oh, you know, so you're against the street trader.
但这不是时候，你知道的，做这种事。
But this is not a time, you know, for that.
如果你想说，我不同意这个观点，他是个好战分子。
If you wanna say, I disagree with this, he's a warmonger.
我不同意这个，这是违法的。
I disagree with this, this is illegal.
那你完全可以支持罗·坎纳和托马斯·马西的这种观点。
Then you can join Ro Khanna, and you can join Thomas Massey with that opinion.
但说叛徒，叛徒这个词的分量太重了。
But to say traitor, traitor is a is a high order.
这就像对你领袖使用种族歧视词一样。
That's like the n word for your leader.
你本质上是在对你领袖使用种族歧视词。
You you're basically using the n word on your leader.
叛徒是背叛自己主权国家的人。
Trader, traitor is against your own sovereign country.
戴夫，我真的不觉得这是个恰当的词。
And Dave, I just don't think that's the right word.
我觉得这是错误的。
I think that's wrong.
你是个深思熟虑的人，但我完全不同意这一点。
You're a thoughtful guy, but I completely disagree with this.
我认为你需要收回这一点。
I think you need to roll that back.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为戴夫在自己的立场上一直相当一致。
I think Dave is fairly been consistent in his position.
好的。
Okay.
关于他正在做什么以及他的处境，你知道，但现在有很多人不希望看到这样的战争发生。
On what he's doing and where he's at, you know, but there's a lot of people like that right now that they're not wanting to see a war like this take place.
我会告诉你我对这件事的看法。
I will tell you my thoughts on this.
如果你投票支持一位总统，好吧。
If you vote for a president, okay.
你想对你的投票要求退款，你投了总统。
And you want a refund on your vote, you voted for president.
这么做很流行。
It's popular to do that.
投票支持某个人是非常流行的事，你会说，你知道吗？
It's a very popular thing to vote for somebody And it'd be like, well, you know what?
我真不敢相信他没这么做。
I can't believe he didn't do this.
他没做那件事。
He didn't do that.
他没做这件事。
He didn't do this.
他没做那件事。
He didn't do that.
好的。
Okay.
当你雇佣一位高管时，你雇佣的是他做出决策的能力，看他将要做什么。
When you hire an executive, you hire the person's decision making abilities on what they're gonna be doing.
就是这样。
Period.
基于什么？
Based on what?
基于他们所掌握的情报。
Based on the intel they have.
不是基于你掌握的情报，而是基于他们所掌握的情报。
Not the intel you have, based on intel they have.
除非你是内部人士，能够确切知道发生了什么，否则会有不同的说法。
Unless if you're an insider to be able to know exactly what's going on, different stories.
因此，对于这件事，我觉得‘叛徒’这个词是非常非常沉重的。
So for us, as this has happened, and I feel all the word traitor is a very, very heavy words.
有些词，比如‘叛徒’、‘懦夫’，这些词都相当严重。
Like there's certain words, traitor, coward, all of this stuff.
我的意思是，这是一个挑动情绪的词，目的是激怒别人。
I mean, it's a rage baiting word where you want to get under people's skin.
我明白他在做什么。
I get what he's doing.
但与此同时，我认为这正是人们正在讨论的问题。
But at the same time to me, I think it is a debate that people are having.
然而，文尼，这件事不能拖得太久。
However, Vinny, this cannot be something that drags out.
我同意。
I agree.
所以如果真的拖下去，这绝不是任何人想看到的结果。
So if it does drag out, this is not what anybody wants to see happen whatsoever.
我不认为这会变成阿富汗那样的局面。
I don't think this is going to be Afghanistan.
让我解释一下为什么。
Let me explain why.
拜登撤离阿富汗时，情况怎么样？
When Biden left Afghanistan, how was it?
鲁莽至极。
Reckless.
糟糕透顶。
Horrible.
你知道，他把武器都留了下来。
You know, he left the weapons behind.
我前几天看到一个视频，一个阿富汗人试图驾驶一架直升机，结果是真主党或ISIS的人，根本不会开，直接坠毁，把自己给炸死了。
I saw a video the other day, a Afghani trying to one of the Hezbollahs or ISIS was trying to fly the helicopter, didn't know how to do it, crashed it, killed himself.
我不知道你有没有看过那个片段。
I don't know if you saw the clip or not.
蠢货。
Idiot.
但这位领导人完全不同。
But this is a very different leader.
这是一位有声誉的领导人。
This is a leader with a reputation.
他击杀了卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。
He's killed Gassam Soleimani.
他一直在做决策。
He's called the shots.
他们做了很多不同的事情。
They've done a lot of different things.
所以对我来说，当你看到这样的事情发生时，你也必须相信，现在谈判桌上的是一个完全不同的人。
So for me, when you see things like this taking place, you have to also trust there's a different guy in the room that's negotiating.
库什纳和维特科夫去寻找谈判的方式，但他们一直想拖延。
Kushner and Witkoff went to find ways to negotiate and they kept wanting to delay.
你认为他们为什么想拖延？
Why do you think they want to delay?
你知道他们同意不追求核武器吗？
Do you know what they agreed to not pursue nuclear?
你知道时间表是什么吗？
You know what the timeline was?
三年。
Three years.
为什么是三年？
Why three years?
就像是，赶紧离开办公室。
It's like, get out of the office.
让我去和拜登打交道。
Let me deal with a Biden.
你不觉得他们更希望今天在办公室的是卡玛拉，以便能就这样的事情进行谈判吗？
Do you not think they would prefer a Kamala today in the office so they can negotiate something like this?
你不觉得他们更希望由纽森来和这样的人谈判吗？
Do you not think they would prefer a Newsom to be able to negotiate with a guy like that?
你不觉得他们更希望派一个奥巴马团队的人进去，以便能进行谈判吗？
Do you not think they would prefer another guy from Obama's team to go in there so they can negotiate?
当然他们会的。
Of course they would.
如果现在在那儿的是纽森、卡马拉、拜登、奥巴马中的任何一个人，他们都会满足对方的一切要求。
If Newsom, Kamala, Biden, Obama, any one of those guys would be there right now, they'd be giving them whatever they want.
他们会更倾向于为伊朗争取利益。
They would be negotiating more in favors of Iran.
但我其实很喜欢他们现在的做法。
But I actually like what they're doing.
我也喜欢这种策略定位。
And I like the positioning.
让我告诉你，文尼，你记得前几天有个人问我一个问题吗？他问我，你见过总统最紧张的时候是什么时候？
Let me tell you, Vinny, do you remember a guy asked me a question the other day, what is the most nervous you've ever seen the president?
我不确定我是否会用‘紧张’这个词，但他用了这个词。
And I don't know if I would use the word nervous, but he's using the word nervous.
我说，大概是他带着赫克斯特·JD，或者赫克斯特、卢比奥和JD一起出现的时候，那正是他们即将对伊朗核设施发动攻击的时刻。
I said probably when he walked up with, I believe it was Hecset JD, or was Hecset and Rubio and JD, and this is when they were about to attack Iran, the nuclear sites.
你还记得是在半夜吗？
Do you remember that in the middle of the night?
我们在纽约。
Were in New York.
你还记得吗，那是你第一次听到他说‘愿上帝保佑我们’？
Do you remember how for the first time you heard him say, may God, you know, be with us?
当时发生时，他说了些什么。
He said something when that took place.
我不确定你是否记得，罗布，当时发生的时候。
I don't know if you remember that, Rob, when it took place.
现在要找到那段视频会很难。
It's gonna be a tough video to find right now.
如果你能找到，就会看到他当时背负着多大的压力。
If you can find it, you saw the amount of burden he was carrying.
是的。
Yes.
他几乎不是在犹豫，而是对即将做什么感到不确定。
It was almost as if he was not second guessing, but he was uncertain about what he was gonna do.
不。
No.
就是那个，罗布。
That's the one right there, Rob.
就是那个。
That's the one right there.
如果你能回看演讲的最后三十秒，罗布，你找到这段视频真是太棒了。
If you can go to the last thirty seconds of the speech good work, Rob, for finding this.
如果你能直接跳到那里，就从那里开始播放。
If you can go right there, just play it from right there.
今晚我们所做的事情，根本没法比。
Could have done what we did tonight, not even close.
历史上从未有任何一支军队能完成刚才发生的事。
There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.
明天，凯恩将军、国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯将在早上8点于五角大楼举行新闻发布会。
Tomorrow, general Cain, secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, will have a press conference at 8AM at the Pentagon.
我想感谢所有人，特别是上帝，我想说，我们爱您，上帝，我们也爱我们的保护者们。
And I want to just thank everybody, and in particular, God I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our Protect great them.
愿上帝保佑中东。
God bless The Middle East.
愿上帝保佑以色列，愿上帝保佑美国。
God bless Israel, and God bless America.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
谢谢。
Thank you.
你看到他们的肢体语言了吗？
Do do you see the body language?
我看到了，我记得。
I saw I remember.
你玩过这个视频吗？
Have you played
我记得这个。
this video?
我记得这个。
I remember this.
你现在看不到什么？
You know what you don't see right now?
你看不到那种肢体语言。
You don't see that body language.
为什么？
Why?
为什么你现在看不到那种肢体语言？
Why do you not see that body language right now?
你看到他现在是怎么说话的吗？
Do you see how he's speaking right now?
就像这样。
Like this.
这是可能发生的情况。
Here's what could happen.
我们不希望看到发生的事。
We don't want to see happen.
很可能会出现一些。
There could very likely be some.
这关乎政权。
This is about regime.
我们试图与他们谈判。
We try to negotiate with them.
待在安全的地方。
Stay in a safe place.
别出来。
Don't get out.
就像这样，砰，砰，砰。
It was like, boom, boom, boom.
你知道为什么一个人会这样说话吗？
Do you know why a human being speaks like that?
当你知道有数十亿人在看着你时，会在什么情况下这样说话？
At what point you speak like that, knowing billions of people are watching you?
对于那些批评他所作所为的人，你曾经做出过什么负担最重的决定？
Like for some of the people that are critical of what he is doing, what's the biggest decision you ever had to make with the amount of burden you had on it?
说吧。
Go ahead.
你曾经做出过什么负担最重的决定？
What's the biggest decision you ever had to make with the amount of burden you had on it?
好的。
Okay.
好好想想。
Think about it.
如果现在有人在看这段视频，你可能会说，我记得当我经营生意时，我卖掉了房子，把所有东西都投入到了公司里。
If someone's watching this right now, you may say, I remember when I was running a business, I sold my house, sold everything to put it in my office.
我知道如果公司破产了，我不知道我的婚姻还能不能维持下去。
And I knew if the company would go bankrupt, I didn't know if my marriage was going to work out.
我妻子问我为什么要这么做。
My wife questioned why I did this.
这三年我背负着巨大的压力。
I had so much burden for three years.
这是我们做过最难的事情。
It was the hardest thing we ever did.
我们挺过来了。
We made it.
好的，很好。
Okay, great.
这就是压力。
That's burden.
嘿，我们决定把全家搬离另一个地方。
Hey, we decided to move our family out of another place.
我妻子并不想这么做。
And my wife didn't want to do it.
我的孩子们也不想搬，但我们逃离了某种体制。
My kids didn't want to do it, but we escaped a certain regime.
我们来到了美国。
We came to The States.
我们一句英语都不会说。
We didn't speak any English.
每晚我和妻子都吵架，持续了三年。
Every night my wife and I fought for three years.
我们身无分文。
We didn't have any money.
我们几乎吃不上饭。
We were barely eating anything.
十年后，我们过得不错。
Ten years later, we're doing good.
我们的孩子都在上学。
Our kids are going to school.
他快要毕业了，即将成为一名医生。
He's about to graduate to be a doctor.
我们做到了。
We did it.
对吧？
Right?
想象一下你背负的重担。
Imagine that burden you carry.
对吧？
Right?
当你做出决定，而很多人反对你的时候。
When you make a decision and a lot of people are against you.
这就是他目前的处境。
This is where he's at.
他正在做决定，而很多人并不支持这场战争。
He's making a decision and a lot of people are not with this war.
想想看。
Think about that.
这负担可不轻。
That's a lot of burden.
但我想强调的是，这一次，他就是这样。
But the point I want to make is he is like this, this time.
为什么？
Why?
他掌握着你我所没有的信息。
He has information you and I don't have.
而我不知道那是什么。
And I don't know what that is.
如果这些信息是关于伊朗的情况，如果他们内部已经掌握了一些情报，如果他们已经知道——就像你看到的罗布，你有那个掩体被拍摄下来的图片吗？
If that information is stuff that they know about Iran, if that information is their saw on the inside that they already have a hold of something, if they already know, like you saw the Rob, do you have the picture of the bunker that it was shot?
我想我发过你哈梅内伊那个掩体的图片。
I think I sent you the picture of the bunker of Khamenei.
当你看到他居住地的这张图片时，顺便说一下，我们两天前就报道过这件事，可能周五就报道过了，是的，但你有前后对比图。
When you see this picture of where he lived And by the way, we reported on this two days ago, maybe even on Friday we reported on this that yeah, but you have the before and after.
我发过你一张前后对比图。
There's a before and after I sent you.
如果你往上翻，就能看到。
If you go up, you'll see it.
哦，如果我发了，也许我们可以把它发给皮博迪播客。
Oh, if I did and maybe we send it to the Peabody podcast.
确实有前后对比图。
There is a before and after.
我不确定有没有发给你。
I don't know if I send it to you.
如果你去看看哈梅内伊住所的样子。
If you go and see what that looks like, Khamenei's compound.
是的。
Yeah.
就是这样。
There you go.
哈梅内伊的住所。
Khamenei's Compound.
天啊，罗布打字打哈梅内伊越来越熟练了。
Man, Rob is getting so good at typing Khamenei.
直接输入就行。
Just type in.
就是这样。
There you go.
看看这个。
Look at that.
下面这个就是那个建筑原本的样子。
That's the compound below what it looked like.
而这就是袭击之后现在的样子。
And that's what it is today after the attack.
所以他们袭击了那里，但他有90%的可能性不在那个建筑里。
So they hit it, but 90% chance he's not at the compound.
他在另一个地方。
He's at a different place.
有一位来自伊朗的内部人士告诉我，悄悄告诉我，他们据说有一个地下设施。
There is an insider from Iran that told me and whispered to me that they have a underground allegedly.
这是一个在情报部门工作的人，他说从他的建筑里有一条直接通往地下的通道，你管这叫什么？
This is a person that works in the Intel business underground from his compound, a direct underground, what do you call it?
一条直通俄罗斯大使馆或他受俄罗斯人保护的地方的隧道。
Tunnel that goes straight to the Russian embassy or a place where he's protected by Russians.
好的。
Okay.
据称。
Allegedly.
但话虽如此，如果这次总统比上次更坚决，他们掌握了一些关于被捕者的内部信息。
But having said that, if the guys, if the president is this resolved this time around versus last time, they have access to some information that the arrested.
顺便说一下，各位，请记住这一点。
And by the way, guys, just remember this.
我们只是在表达自己的观点。
We're reporting our opinions.
你不必同意。
You don't have to agree with it.
其他人也在表达他们的观点。
And other people are giving their opinions.
我们也不必同意他们的看法。
We don't have to agree with them.
这才是美国成为一个可以理性辩论、相互尊重、来回交流的氛围的地方。
This is where America becomes a climate where you can debate and argue respectfully, respectfully and going back and forth.
对吧？
Right?
这就是我们今天所处的状况。
That's where we are today.
大家都在为人们祈祷，希望没有人丧生。
Everybody's praying for people and not one person to get killed.
大家都在祈祷以最轻松的方式实现和平。
Everybody's praying for peace to happen in the easiest way.
但现实是，如果你在和一个想要杀死你以及你所代表的一切的人谈判，你该怎么办？
But the reality of it is if you're negotiating with somebody that wants to kill you and everything you stand for, what are you supposed to do?
就坐在那里任人宰割吗？
Sit there and just take it?
这就是你应该做的吗？
Is that what you're supposed to do?
有多少位美国总统这么做过？
How many US presidents did that?
有多少位美国总统对伊朗一味忍让？
How many US presidents just took it from Iran?
哦，没关系。
Oh, it's okay.
哦，没关系。
Oh, it's okay.
哦，没关系。
Oh, it's okay.
顺便说一下，所有这些事都可以追溯到两个事件。
And by the way, all of this stuff can go back to two events.
其中一个发生在很多年前的伊朗，当时英国军情六处、中央情报局等各方都卷入了巴列维王朝上台的事件。
One of them is what happened many, many years ago in Iran when MI6 CI, everybody got involved when the Shah came in.
幸运的是，巴列维王朝为伊朗做了三十多年的贡献。
And then, well, luckily, the Shah did a great thing to Iran for thirty something years.
接下来一次就是基辛格和吉米·卡特时期。
And then the next time around was Kissinger and Jimmy Carter.
所以不，不，总统，知道，伊朗国王。
So no, no, president, know, Shah of Iran.
我们支持你。
We have your back.
别担心。
Don't worry about it.
我们支持你。
We have your back.
别担心。
Don't worry about it.
我们支持你。
We have your back.
砰。
Boom.
霍梅尼上台了。
Khomeini comes in.
四十七年后的今天，看看那边一团糟的局面。
Forty seven years later, look at the mess of what's going on over there.
所以双方都可能是对的。
So both can be right.
在这种情况下，接下来的问题是：会发生什么？
In this instance, the question then becomes, what happens next?
接下来谁来接任？
Who takes over next?
这是哪一个，罗布？
Which one is this, Rob?
你正在播放的奥巴马片段？
The Obama clip that you're showing?
对了，顺便看看这个。
Oh, by the way, check this out.
看看这个。
Look at this here.
这是伊朗的时刻。
This is an Iranian time.
一枚被拦截的伊朗弹道导弹刚刚落在卡塔尔的一条街道上并爆炸了。
An intercepted Iranian ballistic missile just fell down on a street in Qatar and exploded.
大家看这个。
Watch this, folks.
你看到了吗？
Did you see that?
这发生在卡塔尔。
This is in Qatar.
是的。
Yeah.
文尼，你在想什么？
Vinnie, what are you thinking?
我给罗布发了一个关于奥巴马的视频片段。
I I sent Rob a clip about Obama.
有没有人想说说，我们是怎么走到这一步的？
Is does anybody wanna say, like, how do we get to places like this?
这是一个视频片段。
This is a clip.
你能播放一下这个吗？关于奥巴马在夜里悄悄给了他们十亿美元，好让没人注意到？
This is could you play this about Barack giving them $400,000,000 at night so nobody would really notice and pay attention?
罗布，你能播放这个吗？
Rob, could you play this?
美国和伊朗现在正在解决伊朗政府长期以来对美国政府的索赔要求。
The United States and Iran are now settling a long standing Iranian government claim against the United States government.
伊朗将拿回自己的资金4亿美元，外加适当利息，但远低于伊朗所要求的金额。
Iran will be returned its own funds 400 including appropriate interest, but much less than the amount Iran sought.
对美国而言，这项和解协议可能为我们节省数十亿美元的支出，
For The United States, this settlement could save us billions of dollars that
是的。
Yeah.
伊朗本可以追讨这笔款项，因此美国拖着不放没有任何好处。
Could have been pursued by Iran, so there was no benefit to The United States in dragging this out.
而且我
And I
所以没人想谈是谁给了他们钱，是谁扶持了他们，而现在这个家伙却得收拾他们搞出的烂摊子。
so nobody wants to talk about who gave them the money, who built them up, and now this guy has to clean up their freaking mess.
就像拜登时期的边境问题一样。
Just like with the border with Biden.
再说一遍，伙计，我要说清楚。
And again, pal, I'm gonna say this.
每个人都觉得自己特别厉害，什么都知道。
Everybody thinks that they're so good and they know everything.
外面根本没人懂任何事。
Nobody no one out there knows anything.
你根本没有参加这些会议。
You're not in these meetings.
你根本不在那些快艇上。
You're not in these skiffs.
你根本没参与这事，你什么都不知道。
You're not in this you don't know nothing.
你什么都不知道。
You don't know nothing.
我的态度是，那些人。
My attitude is the people.
我们正在轰炸并要与之开战的国家的人民，他们开心吗？
Are the people of the country that we're bombing and we're going to war with happy?
是的。
Yes.
那我就什么也听不见。
Then I don't hear nothing.
我听不到其他人说的任何风声。
I don't hear none of the noise from everybody else.
我们想要战争吗？
Do we want war?
我们中有任何人醒来后会说，是的，我们去打吧？
Did did any of us wake up and be like, yeah, let's go.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我今天早上醒来，心想：天啊，我们真得发动一场该死的战争了。
I woke up today and I was like, man, we need to start a freaking war.
有时候你不得不这么做，你猜怎么着？
Sometimes you have to and some guess what?
大多数人没有勇气说：你知道吗？
The majority of people don't have the heart to say, you know what?
当事情发展到紧要关头时，你必须这么做。
When push comes to shove, you gotta do it.
任何说‘美国去死’的人，都必须得到相应的处理。
And anybody, anybody that says death to America has to be handled accordingly.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
我们该让他们说‘死亡给美国’吗？
Do we tell them to say death to America?
我们该让他们有这种该死的态度吗？
Do we tell them to have this freaking attitude?
不。
No.
不。
No.
我理解。
And I get it.
你认为这是一份容易的工作吗？
It's not do you think it's an easy job?
你两周前说了一句很棒的话。
You said a great thing two weeks ago.
我们之前在谈爱泼斯坦的事，还有各种事情和筹码，但我做不了这份工作。
We were talking about Epstein and this and that and leverage, and I can't do that job.
作为一名基督徒，我知道自己无法胜任总统这个职位，因为我无法做出那些决定。
I know as a Christian, I can't do the job of the as a president because I wouldn't be able to make those decisions.
你真是说中了关键。
And you just nailed it.
他就像，砰，砰。
He's like, boom, boom.
他知道会有人丧生。
And he knows lives will be lost.
你觉得做出这样的决定很容易吗？当将军们进来告诉你，‘嘿，我们即将发动打击’时，你就说‘好吧’。
You think that's an easy decision to just go, okay, when they come in on the generals and they go, hey, we're about to strike.
这是绝佳的机会。
This is the opportunity.
就是现在了。
This is the moment.
数月的规划。
Months of planning.
我们现在出发。
We go now.
你只说，去吧。
And you just say, go.
你说，好。
You say, yes.
那些生命都压在你肩上。
And those lives are on your hands.
你们以为这很容易，我们接下来要听的大多数播客主持人，他们都觉得自己能胜任，能承担这份重担。
And you guys think it's easy, the majority of these people, these podcasters today that we're all gonna hear, they think that they can do it and they can have that burden.
他们做不到。
They can't.
而且，我还要再强调一次。
And again, I'm gonna go back.
对于那些在街头死去、抗争、呐喊和反抗的人们，现在他们的愿望终于得到了回应。
To the people, to the people in the streets that were dying and fighting and screaming and revolting, now they got their freaking their wishes answered.
太好了。
So good.
太好了。
So good.
这是奥巴马。
It's Obama
送了钱。
sent money.
特朗普送了武器。
Trump sent munitions.
你知道，哪种方式才会有效。
You know, which is gonna work.
我觉得我们已经看到了，安抚他们、不断送钱、做这一切的结果。
I think we see what happened appeasing them and sending money back and and doing all this.
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