伊朗拒绝特朗普的十五点和平计划 | PBD #765

穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼出现了。

MBS comes out.

我这里有他的评论，他说，他担心如果特朗普现在退缩，沙特阿拉伯和整个地区将不得不面对愤怒的伊朗。

I have the comments here where he says, he fears if Trump retreats now, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region will be left to face angry Iran.

我觉得他告诉我们的是，这是采访的回复吗？

I think he told us to is this the interview rep?

或者

Or

我在找这个片段。

I'm looking for the clip.

我找到了这个片段。

I found this clip.

我不

I'm not

确定那个人是不是他。

sure if it's him though.

是的。

Yeah.

愤怒的伊朗。

Angry Iran.

他告诉我们去《纽约时报》。

He told us to New York Times.

然后昨天，当总统接受采访时，他们问了总统。

Then yesterday when the president is being interviewed, they asked the president.

我不知道你有没有看过那个片段，罗布。

I don't know if you saw that clip, Rob.

他们正在问他，嘿。

They're they're they're asking him, hey.

我刚刚发短信发给你了，罗布。

I I just texted it to you, Rob.

如果你……对不起。

If you I'm sorry.

我发给了我自己。

I texted it to myself.

记者问总统：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼是否在鼓励你对伊朗采取某些行动？

Reporter asks the president, is MBS encouraging you to do certain things related to Iran?

以下是总统的回应。

And here's what the president had to say.

继续。

Go forward.

沙特阿拉伯。

Saudi Arabia.

关于沙特阿拉伯，你听到了什么？

What do you hear with Saudi Arabia?

只是听说你们一直在沟通，而且他一直在鼓励你对伊朗采取某些行动。

Just hearing that you've been talking and that he has been encouraging you to do certain things related to Iran.

你能分享一下吗？他是个战士。

Can can you share He's a warrior.

是的。

He does.

对。

Yeah.

他是个战士。

He's a warrior.

顺便说一下，他正在和我们并肩作战。

He's fighting with us, by the way.

沙特阿拉伯表现非常出色，阿联酋也很出色。

Saudi Arabia has been excellent and UAE, excellent.

我告诉你，卡塔尔简直太棒了。

And I will tell you, Qatar, incredible.

沙特阿拉伯，你对沙特有什么了解？

Saudi Arabia, what do you hear with Saudi?

是的。

Yeah.

所以事情就是这样。

So there you have it.

所以他做出了这样的回应。

So he's responded the way he is.

罗布，我不确定是否对他进行过采访。

And, Rob, I don't know if there was an interview with him or not.

那只是面对面的采访。

It was just like a face to face interview.

是的。

Yeah.

巴里，你提了一个很好的观点，因为当你仔细想想，他提出这15点是不是为了争取更多时间，因为他得到了更新消息，称‘的黎波里号’还需要四到五天时间，我这里有一句非常奇怪的引述。

Barry, you make a good point because, you know, when you think about this, is he putting out the 15 points to give a little bit more time because he got an update that USS Tripoli needs four more days, needs five more days because I got a quote here, very weird quote.

我不确定是否喜欢这句话，但我还是念给你听听内塔尼亚胡的原话。

And I don't know if I like this quote, but let me read this quote to you from Netanyahu.

这是内塔尼亚胡刚刚说的话。

Here's what Netanyahu just said.

明白吗？

Okay?

看看他的原话是什么。

Look what his quote is.

内塔尼亚胡被问及他认为这场冲突会持续多久时，刚刚说道。

Netanyahu just said when asked how long do you think this is going to last?

他告诉福克斯新闻，可能需要一些时间，但不会持续多年。

He told Fox News, may take some time, but it's not going to take years.

他承诺将继续打击伊朗的敌人，并在伊朗发动导弹袭击后帮助推翻其政权，称伊朗的行为威胁到整个世界。

He vowed to keep striking Iran's enemies and help topple its regime after missile attacks he called Iran's behavior threatening the entire world.

所以这里有两个不同的问题。

So there's two different problems.

一个是以色列问题。

There's the Israel problem.

另一个是世界问题。

There's the world problem.

还有美国的问题。

There's the America problem.

以色列问题是什么？

The Israel problem is what?

你就是直接攻击这些人。

You just attack these guys.

猜猜怎么着，汤姆？

Guess what, Tom?

关于以色列问题。

With the Israel problem.

他们现在对你非常愤怒。

They are furious with you right now.

他们对你目前的所作所为并不满意。

They're not happy with you with what you have going on.

以色列只能坐在那里说：伙计，如果我们现在不彻底解决，你以为他们会就此罢休吗？

And Israel has to sit there and say, dude, if we don't finish this off right now, you think they're gonna let this go?

他们会回来把我们除掉。

They're gonna come back and take us out.

那你就有个世界性问题了。

Then you have a world problem.

这真的让世界变得更安全了吗？

Did this even make the world a safer place?

这让海湾国家感觉更好了吗？

Did it make Gulf States feel better?

让他们感觉更安心了吗？

Did it make them feel more comfortable?

欧洲人和北约盟友对此感觉更安心了吗？

Are Europeans and NATO allies feeling more comfortable about this?

那最后一个是什么？

Then the last one is what?

总统特朗普。

Trump the president.

这件事在美国民众中反响如何？

How is this sitting in America?

美国对这件事的反应是什么？

How is America reacting to this?

美国就这样坐着不动吗？

Is America sitting there?

因为我们刚刚在棕榈滩赢下了一场民主党人的选举。

Because we just had an we just had a Democrat that won, in Palm Beach.

是棕榈滩吗？

Is it Palm Beach?

艾米丽。

Emily.

我不知道她的姓是什么。

I don't know what her last name is.

艾米丽·格雷戈里。

Emily Gregory.

艾米丽·格雷戈里，刚刚在棕榈滩获胜。

Emily Gregory who just won in Palm Beach.

民主党赢得了包括特朗普马阿拉歌庄园在内的佛罗里达州众议院选区。

And Democrat flips Florida State House district that includes Trump's Mar A Lago.

好的。

Okay.

我的意思是，那是他的房子。

I mean, that's his house.

那么他们在说什么呢？

So what are they saying?

汤姆，你之前提出了一个很好的观点，我们知道，过去四五年我们一直在讨论这个问题。

Tom, you made a good point earlier that, you know, we've talked about this for the last four or five years.

如果我们有一件事一直保持一致，那就是别担心民主党和共和党谁掌管美国的独立性。

If there's one thing we've been consistent about, don't worry about Democrats and Republicans who runs America's independence.

明白吗？

Okay?

这才是主导美国选举的人。

That's who runs American elections.

如果独立选民的态度是这样，你知道，意思是，我们只是想表明，我们并不完全支持这一方。

If independence are kind of going like this, you know, it's like, hey, just wanted to show, we're not fully with this.

明白吗？

Okay?

你的基本盘可能支持你。

Your your base may be with you.

这个群体也可能支持你。

This may be with you.

但我们独立选民，正倾向于另一边。

But us independents, we're kinda leaning this way.

汤姆，你看到这种趋势正在发生吗？

Do you see that pattern kinda happening, Tom?

是的。

Yeah.

这是选区的翻转。

This is a flip of a district.

这原本是共和党的选区。

This was a Republican.

这曾经是GOP的选区。

This was a GOP district.

现在格雷戈里在特别选举中获胜了。

And now Gregory has won at the special election.

所以你现在看，会想这说明了什么？

And so now you look at it and say, okay, what does this say?

顺便说一下，我赢了100票。

I come 100 votes, by the way.

博卡那个候选人赢了大约十三、十四票。

The Boca guy won by like thirteen, fourteen votes.

对。

Right.

而在审计后，票数差距缩小到三票，甚至在博卡地区只差一票。

And then under audit, it went down to three votes and even one vote in Boca.

所以，是的，这件事曾被反复争论，几乎是在刀尖上平衡。

So, yeah, that was that was debated back and forth right on the edge of a knife.

因此，这表明佛罗里达州的独立选民并没有一夜之间变成自由派。

So what this says is that the independents in Florida are are basically not saying, hey, overnight, I became liberal.

他们想表达的是：我不喜欢当前的局面，这就是我的倾向。

What they're saying is, I don't like what's going on, and this is the way I'm leaning.

而要改变这种倾向并不需要太多，尤其是在淡紫色选区。

And it doesn't take much to move that, especially in the lavender districts.

迈阿密布劳沃德县是蓝色的。

Miami Broward County is blue.

迈阿密是蓝色的，但比以往更浅一些，有时会变成淡紫色。

Miami is is blue, but lighter blue than it's been, and it goes lavender certain times.

对。

Yep.

还有，抱歉。

And and Sorry.

我只是想说，帕特提出的观点非常正确，美国的问题在于，顺便说一句，中期选举也存在同样的警示信号。

I just wanted to say the point that Pat made is is very true is that the America problem is it has this issue in a, by the way, there's just a canary in the coal mine for the midterm elections as well.

这是一个更大的问题，必须加以考虑。

And that's the bigger issue that has to be, has to be contemplated.

目前，公众意见在很大程度上并不支持当前的状况。

So, you know, the, the public opinion right now does not favor what's going on for the most part.

也许他们只看短期因素，比如汽油价格，只是对现状感到不满。

Maybe they're looking at it short term, maybe they're feeling what's going on with gasoline prices and they just don't have a distaste for it.

我不确定他们是否在思考更宏观的图景。

I don't know if they're thinking about the bigger picture.

正如你提到的，这是一个着眼于大局的机会，但必须权衡你愿意为此牺牲什么。

Like you had mentioned, this is an opportunity for a bigger picture here, but it has to be balanced as far as you know, what are you willing to sacrifice for?

这真是一个非常艰难的处境。

It's a really tough situation to be in.

其实也没有一个明确的叙事。

There's not really a narrative either.

通常来说，战争背后都会有一个叙事，比如我们必须这么做，因为像9·11那样的原因。

Like normally, you have a narrative behind the war of like, Oh, we have to do this because of this reason like nine eleven there.

那是出于复仇。

You it was revenge.

有时候存在迫在眉睫的威胁，但他们并没有一个能引起公众共鸣的叙事。

Sometimes there's an imminent threat, but, they don't really have, like, a narrative to, capture that tolerance.

所以，我认为这也是原因之一。

So that's I think that's part of it too.

明白了。

Got it.

罗布，这是什么？

Rob, what is this?

这是总统昨天在椭圆形办公室的场景。

This is the president yesterday in the Oval Office.

他谈到收到了伊朗的一份礼物，这表明美国现在正在与该政权中正确的人打交道。

He talks about receiving a gift from Iran, and it shows that The United States is now dealing with the right people in the regime.

让我们听听。

Let's hear it.

做个交易。

Make a deal.

他们昨天做了一件非常了不起的事。

They did something yesterday that was amazing, actually.

他们送了我们一份礼物，而总统今天就到了。

They gave us a present, and the president arrived today.

这是一份非常大的礼物，价值巨额资金。

It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.

我不会告诉你们这份礼物是什么，但它是一项非常重要的奖品。

And I'm not gonna tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.

他们把这份礼物送给了我们，而且之前就说过要送。

And they gave it to us, and they said they were gonna give it.

所以这对我来说意味着一件事：我们正在和正确的人打交道。

So that meant one thing to me, we're dealing with the right people.

这和核有关吗？

Is that nuclear related?

不。

No.

和核无关。

It wasn't nuclear related.

这和石油与天然气有关，他们这么做非常好。

It was oil and gas related, and it was a very nice thing they did.

但它向我表明，我们正在和正确的人打交道。

But what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people.

因为你知道，你并不清楚，因为领导层已经被消灭，全都不在了。

Because, you know, you don't know because the leadership was killed, all gone.

霍梅尼，都不在了。

Khomeini, all gone.

正如人们所说，前任最高领袖。

As the expression goes, the past Supreme Leader.

然后新的最高领袖上台了，至少也取得了相当不错的成绩。

And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up, at a minimum, racked up pretty good.

其他所有人都消失了。

And everyone else was gone.

而第三梯队中的许多人也都不在了。

And then many of the people in the third tier are gone.

但我们面对的是一群我认为最终会有所作为的人。

But we're dealing with a group of people that I think turn out.

他们送给我们的这份礼物意义重大。

And and the the present the gift they made to us was very significant.

他们说他们会做到，而事情真的发生了。

And they said they were gonna do it, and it happened.

而只有他们才能做到这一点。

And they're the only ones that could've done it.

现在信息非常混乱。

Much fog of war right now.

你听到的这一切，真的在发生吗？

Like, you're hearing everything to sit there and say, is really going on?

到底真正说了什么？

What is really being said?

这是在玩政治吗？

Is politics being played?

他到底在跟谁说话？

Who's he talking to?

这是在玩把戏吗？

Is it games?

还是不是在玩把戏？

Is it not games?

还是对方在想：他到底在说什么？

Or is the other side sitting and saying, what the hell is he talking about?

我们什么都没给你。

We didn't give you anything.

现在发生的事情太多了。

There's so much that's going on right now.

但是帕特，你想想看。

But Pat, you think about it.

如果这个政权只是表面保全面子，而实际掌权的人并不那么激进，这难道不是美国最理想的情况吗？

Wouldn't that be like the perfect scenario for The US if the regime in in kind of like save face is there, but those who are in charge of the regime are not as radical?

我不知道这是否有可能。

I don't know if that's a possibility.

绝不可能。

Oh, no way.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

让我想想。

Let let me okay.

让我问你一个问题。

So let me let me ask you.

如果你和幸运的卢西安诺待了十年，每天每时每刻都和他在一起，你需要多久才能变得像他一样？

How long if you spent ten years with Lucky Luciano, okay, how long do you need to spend every second of the day with Lucky to become like Lucky?

需要多久？

How long?

你觉得这个时间线是多久？

What do you think the timeline is?

你需要和墨西哥的贩毒集团待多久？

How long do you need to spend with the cartel from Mexico?

给我举一个墨西哥的大型贩毒集团，随便说一个。

Give me one of the heavyweights cartels of Mexico, name any one of them.

小巴勃罗。

El Chapo.

我要和埃爾查普o待多久才能变成他？

How long do I need to spend with El Chapo to become El Chapo?

我要和那些曼森家族的人待多久？

How long do I need to spend with, you know, the Mansons?

我要和这些人待多久才能变成他们？

How long do I need to spend with these guys to become them?

你认为这个时间线是多久？

What do you think that timeline is?

不用太久。

Not long.

你真心觉得呢？这是个非常好的问题，因为你觉得需要多久？

What would you think that's honestly, it's a very good question because how long do you think that is?

三个月、六个月、十二个月、两年、三年？

Three months, six months, twelve months, two years, three years?

不长。

Not long.

不，一点都不长。

No, not long at all.

我们有一个案例研究。

We have a case study.

你觉得呢？

What would you say?

你觉得是多少？

What would you say it is?

我觉得是一千小时。

I think a thousand hours.

你觉得是一千小时？

You think it's a thousand hours?

我觉得是，你知道的，如果你进去的时候容易被操控，三周就够了，我的意思是，历史上帕蒂·赫斯特被绑架时发生了什么，我们都看到了。

I think it's, I, you know, if you're going into it and you're manipulatable, you know, three weeks, I mean, we saw what happened, in history when Patty Hearst was kidnapped.

然后，从心理上来说，她从斯德哥尔摩综合征转变为逐渐认同劫持者的感受，最终参与了共生解放军的银行劫案。

And then she basically went from, they say psychologically, she went from Stockholm syndrome, you kind of start to lean with the feelings of your captors to actually participating with the Symbionese Liberation Army and a bank hit.

这真是一个如何

And it's a How

花了多长时间？

long did that take?

顺便说一下，她的律师是埃夫利·贝利。

Effley Bailey was her lawyer, by the way.

对。

Right.

她当时只有19岁。

She only was 19 years old.

她非常容易受影响。

She was very impressionable.

整个过程只有大约三十天。

It was only like thirty days.

好的。

Okay.

所以问题是。

So here's the question.

有多少人与当前政权——霍梅尼、佩什基安，或者那些人——相处了一千多个小时，并成为真正的信徒？

How many people have spent a thousand plus hours with the current regime, Khomeini, Peshkian, any of those guy to be true believers?

有多少人？

How many?

他们都是。

They all are.

他们都已经这样了。

They all have

几百人吧。

a couple 100.

所以他们都已经这样了。

So they all have.

我想表达的是，如果总统说我们在和正确的人交谈，这是否意味着某种转变或语气上的变化？

The point I'm being is making is that if the president say we're talking to the right people, is there some sort of a shift or a tone change?

我不知道。

I have no idea.

我不知道他在和谁交谈。

I don't know who he's talking to.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，所以，所以，或者是不是

So so so Or is

他是在让我们放松警惕，以为政权不会改变？

he softening us up that the regime's not gonna change?

不。

No.

我觉得这完全失败了。

I I I think Such a fail.

我觉得是的。

I think it is.

我觉得，你看。

I think I think look.

让我告诉你当时的争论是什么。

If you here's what the debate was.

第一次争论是：我们该不该？

The first debate was, should we or should we not?

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

然后总统说：伊朗人民，我们支持你们。

So then the president says, Iranian people, we have your back.

好的。

Okay.

于是，伊朗人民变得更加大胆，纷纷走上街头。

Then Iranian people are becoming bolder to go out there.

那么，总统现在的立场是什么？

So now the president's position is what?

我们支持你们。

We have your back.

这是来自世界上最有权力的人所发表的声明。

That's a statement being made from the most powerful person in the world.

我警告你们，别吊死任何人，别处决。

And I'm warning you guys don't hang anybody, don't execute.

对。

Right.

但他们还是继续这么做。

But they kept doing it.

对。

Right.

他们还是继续这么做。

And they kept doing it.

他们正在切断互联网。

They're turning off the internet.

我们看到了出现的数字：三万一千、三万三千、七万。

And we saw the numbers that came up 31,000, 33,000, 70,000.

然后他们又回来否认，说：不，不，我们没有杀死三万人。

And then they came back and said, no, no, didn't kill thirty thousand of our people.

我们只杀死了我们自己3,117人。

We only killed 3,117 of our own people.

罗布，你能找到那段视频吗？就是我想找的那段，他说到我们没有杀死三万一千人。

Rob, can you find that clip that where that's the clip I was trying to find with where he said we didn't kill 31,000 people.

这是错误的。

That's incorrect.

我们只杀死了我们自己3,117人。

We killed only 3,117 of our own people.

好像他在试图说，你看，我们是好人。

As if like he's trying to say, look, we're nice people.

是的。

Yeah.

从那以后，大家开始争论起来。

So then from there, everyone's now debating.

别做。

Don't do it.

做吧。

Do it.

做吧。

Do it.

别做。

Don't do it.

做吧。

Do it.

别做。

Don't do it.

我们不参与。

We're not in.

我们

We're

退出。

out.

对。

Right.

那谁来做决定？

And then who makes the decision?

总统。

The president.

现在我们参与了。

Now we're in.

我们为什么要进去？

Why are we going in?

政权崩溃，政权更迭。

Regime collapse, regime change.

所以到最后，这变成了一个核问题。

So now at the end, it's a nuclear.

我不知道是否认同这个说法：如果现在战争结束，你们声称战争已经结束，那么我的立场就会变成这样。

I don't know if I buy the fact that so if now it ends and you claim the war is done, so the position for me would become like this.

如果你跟他说：嘿，听好了，我们正在这么做。

If you're talking to Hey, listen, here's what we're doing.

那是什么？

What's that?

我们要从这里撤出。

We're disconnecting from here.

而且我们要撤出去，但我不认为会发生这种情况，因为我们刚刚两小时前收到一份内部消息，一位好朋友说，游骑兵表示这个星期天他们将被部署，你知道的，地面部队将在本周日出动。

And we're going out, which I don't think is happening because we just got a report right now, two hours ago from an insider, a good friend, that ranger said this Sunday they're being deployed, you know, boots on the ground, going out this Sunday.

他们正在给家人打电话，说：事情是这样的。

And they're calling their families, hey, this is what's going on.

这是游骑兵部队。

This is a ranger.

这不是随便听听而已，我们即将被部署，他们告诉我们具体要去哪里。

This is not somebody to listen, we are getting deployed and they're telling us here's where we're going.

所以如果他一边说我们在谈判，一边暗地里派兵，他是不是在故意转移视线、制造混乱？

So if he's talking like this that we're negotiating, but on the back end we're sending in, is he trying to deflect and confuse?

这会不会是特朗普阵营在暗中操作？

Is that Trump's possibly Trump's lineup doing things?

因为如果他没有提前说明，结果事后发现这是一场核谈判，而你们却杀了他们50名家人，你还认为他们会只是生气吗？

Because if he doesn't and it comes back and it was a nuclear negotiation and you just killed 50 of their family members, you now you thought they were angry?

你只是把愤怒的级别提升到了一个全新的高度，全世界都会因此震动，那些原本主张不干涉的人也会站出来说：

You just increased the temperature of anger to a whole different level that the world so so then the people that were, you know, non interventionists are gonna come out and say, what?

我早就告诉过你，根本不该进去。

I told you you shouldn't have gone in the first place.

所以他现在处于一个非常特殊的位置。

So he's in he's in a very interesting place.

但再次强调，我投票支持他，因为在这些情况下，我相信他的决策。

But, again, I voted for him to, you know, in these situations to trust the decisions he's making.

让我们看看他们会采取什么行动。

Let's see what they're going to be doing.

因为无论我们讨论多少，你猜怎么着？我们缺少什么？

Because no matter how much we talk about, guess what we don't have?

我们没有全部的信息。

We don't have all the information.

我们没有完整的情报。

We don't have all the intel.

我们不知道他们会做什么。

We don't know what they're going to be doing.

罗布，你找到那个片段了吗？

Rob, did you find that clip?

我在

I'm

还在找。

still looking.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个两天前的片段，他说过这句话。

It's a, it's a, it's a clip from two days ago where he says that.

所以如果你找到了，告诉我一声。

So if you do find it, let me know.

有什么想法吗？

Any thoughts?

这有很多烟幕，但我觉得这是有意为之的。

And it's a lot of smoke screens, but I think that's intentional.

我的意思是，如果遵循他过去的行为模式，这不过是他的惯用伎俩：不断制造干扰、迷惑人们，然后突然来一记重拳。

And I mean, if it's going to follow the patterns of what he's done in the past, it's something he's just distraction, distraction, distraction, confused people and then boom out of nowhere.

会发生一些迅速、快速且极其有效的事情，我觉得三日倒计时最终不会对任何结果产生影响，因为全世界都在关注、观察，说：‘好了，现在只剩三天了。’

Something swift, fast and, super effective happens where I like, I don't think the triple is going to ultimately play a role in whatever happens because everybody in the world's looking at it, watching it, saying, okay, it's three days away now.

现在只剩两天了。

It's two days away now.

现在只剩一天了。

It's one day away now.

所以我认为，除了这个之外，可能会有别的事情发生，也许和货物有关。

So I I think something different is going to happen aside from that, maybe with the cargo.

但不行，我们现在不可能和他们达成协议，因为那会比我们最初陷入的状况更糟。

But no, there's no way that we just make a deal with them now because that would be a a worse situation than we went into in the first place.

所以情况会从一个极端敌对的政权，变成一个更加愤怒的极端敌对政权，你知道的，油价更高，而且所有石油基础设施都已半毁。

So it gets like a, you know, what goes from a extremist hostile regime to a pissed off extremist hostile regime, like, you know, with oil, at a higher price and with all the infrastructure for oil for oil, halfway damage.

所以，是的，我知道你现在必须彻底行动。

So, yeah, I know that you have to go all the way now.

不能半途而废。

No half measures.

汤姆。

Tom.

是的。

Yeah.

我讨厌这样，你知道，我喜欢马杜罗来去匆匆的样子。

I I hate it because, you know, I like that Maduro was in and out.

我喜欢我以为我们在山上进行了精确轰炸，摧毁了一些核设施。

I I I like that I thought we had conducted a precision bombing up in the hills and had gotten to some nuclear facilities.

但现在有一部分我觉得，又来了，大规模杀伤性武器，只不过现在我们能看到一枚飞行4000英里的导弹。

And now there's a little part of me that's like, you know, here we go again, weapons of mass destruction, except that now we can see a missile going 4,000 miles.

我们看到了一枚，你不能容忍这种情况。

We see one, and you can't have that.

对吧？

Right?

现在你有了导弹，这就跟朝鲜一样了。

Now that you have a missile, it's like North Korea.

当你有能力将导弹投射到这么远的地方时，你就会极度担心导弹顶端会搭载什么样的炸弹。

When you have an ability to throw a missile this far, now you're just scared to death on what kind of a bomb can be on top of it.

现在你遇到了麻烦。

Now you have now you have trouble.

所以我支持这一点。

And so I'm with that.

得赶紧结束了。

Got to finish this up.

我们必须这么做。

We have to do it.

你知道，我们看到报道说‘的黎波里号’已经到了那里。

You know, we see the reports that the USS Tripoli is there.

‘盒式号’，我们最早在这档播客里提到的那艘，一周前已经离开圣迭戈，正在途中。

The USS Boxer, which we brought up on this podcast first, has left San Diego a week ago and is is en route.

它仍然有一周多的航程。

It's still over a week out.

而且你知道，在这个最后通牒结束时，他们必须把事情搞定。

And, you know, at the end of this this ultimatum, you know, they got to get it together.

我的意思是，伊朗人在最后通牒结束时必须做出决定，因为特朗普已经准备好了一整套武器和战术。

I mean, the Iranians have a decision to make at the end of the ultimatum because Trump has got a set of arms and a set of tactics that are ready.

福特。

The Ft.

《金融时报》刊登了一篇关于入侵卡尔吉兰的报道。

Financial Times ran a story talking about ground invasion of Cargilland.

每个人都开始意识到，等等，美国人在这里不是仅仅在空谈。

Everybody is waking up to the fact that, wait a minute, the Americans are not just talking back and forth here.

这不像美国国会里的辩论。

This is not a debate like in the American Congress.

美国人正在持续调动他们的军事力量。

The Americans are continuing to move their military assets around.

而在说完这句话后，如果我们没有达成协议，他们就会采取下一步行动。

And at the end of this saying, if we don't have an agreement in place, they're going to take the next step.

下一步将是卡吉利岛。

And the next step is going to be Cargill Island.

顺便说一下，美国海军‘的黎波里号’也是

And by the way, the USS Tripoli is also part

所称的一部分

of what's

实际上被称为‘铁穹’，但它是一个保护范围，以便所有扫雷舰能够清理波斯湾其余区域。

called is really called the Iron Dome, but it's an envelope of protection so all the minesweepers can clear the rest of The Gulf.

所以特朗普手中还有下一发子弹，他是认真的。

So Trump has next bullets in this gun, and he's serious.

这不是一场漫长的讨论，如果

This is not a long discussion If

这就像我之前提到的那样，你知道。

this is that that that, you know, we talked I mentioned it earlier.

他非常擅长制造干扰，类似于‘午夜锤子’。

He's very good at, you know, these distractions where similar to Midnight Hammer.

如果这种情况类似，那么至少在短期内，可能会推高油价。

If that is a similar situation, well, at least for a short period of time, would probably impact oil prices higher.

所以现在是做多的好时机。

So it'd be a good time to go long.

油价上涨也可能在一段时间内打压债券价格和股票价格。

Oil also would probably hurt bond prices and for a period of time hurt stock prices.

所以，这是值得思考的问题。

So, that is something to contemplate.

如果你是从商业角度听这个，那确实值得思考，但显然这里涉及的格局要大得多。

You know, if you're listening to this on, you know, from a business perspective, that's, it's something to contemplate, but, clearly it's a much bigger picture here.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们来谈谈这个。

Let's, let's go to that.

让我们来看看昨天发生了什么。

Let's go to that on what happened yesterday.

我们这里还有许多其他新闻要讨论，但其中一则新闻是，在特朗普宣布之前，有人下了5.8亿美元的石油赌注。

And we got, again, a lot of other stories here that we'll go through, but one of the stories that came out is $580,000,000 oil bet just before Trump's announcement.

在特朗普发布停火声明的几秒钟前，交易员们下了异常庞大的原油期货赌注，大约5100份布伦特和WTI原油合约。

Within seconds before Trump cease fire post, traders placed extraordinary large oil future bets, roughly 5,100 contracts on Brent WTI crude oil.

在格林威治时间10:49至10:50之间，共交易了1300万桶原油，价值超过5亿美元。

13,000,000 barrels were traded between 10:49 to 10:50 GMT worth well over $500,000,000.

一些报道称，在特朗普于格林威治时间11:05宣布消息后的那一分钟内，有6200份合约以580美元的价格成交；十五分钟后，超过13000份合约、1300万桶原油在短短一分钟内完成交易。

Some reports cite 6,200 contracts at five eighty In that minute, immediately after Trump announced that 11:05 GMT, which is like fifteen minutes later, 13,000 plus contracts, 13,000,000 barrels exchange hands in one minute.

这一消息公布后，油价暴跌。

Oil prices plunged on the news.

布伦特原油价格从112美元跌至99美元，跌幅达15%；WTI原油则从99美元跌至86美元。

Brent crude oil fell 15% from 112 to 99 and WTI fell from 99 to 86.

相比之下，在战争爆发前，布伦特原油的日交易量为30万份合约。

By comparison before the war, Brent traded at 300,000 contracts a day.

最近，日交易量已飙升至每天1000份合约。

Recently daily volume have jumped to a thousand contracts a day.

汤姆，你对这个故事有什么看法？

Tom, thoughts on this story.

我讨厌它。

I hate it.

我非常讨厌这一点，因为普通美国人、普通投资者根本无法接触到这些信息。

I absolutely hate this because the average American, the average investor has no access to this.

谁会知道总统会说什么呢？

Who knew what the president was going to say?

华盛顿特区的一群人。

A circle of people in Washington, D.

C.

C.

他们知道总统会说什么。

They know what the president's going to say.

而这些合约基本上是在盘后交易中流出的，有些人甚至根本无法参与。

And these contracts are going out in basically after hour tradings that some people don't even have access to.

他们把这东西放在这里。

And they put this out here.

你知道，这就是为什么我们需要那些他们就是不通过的内幕交易法规。

You know, this is why we need the insider trading rules that they won't pass.

你看，我看到这个就想到这一点。

You know, I look at this and I come to this.

我以前说过。

I've said it before.

我们不需要任期限制。

It's like we don't need term limits.

我们需要的是监禁。

We need jail.

你知道，这就像是那个老笑话。

You know, it's like it's like if you're there's the old joke.

如果一位参议员当选了，他该得到什么？

If a senator is elected, what should he get?

那么答案是24到36，对吧？

And then the answer is 24 to 36, right?

如果你当选的话。

If you're elected.

这让我感到恶心，帕特。

This disgusts me, Pat.

有人在知道总统要说什么的情况下赚了一大笔钱，然后出去抢购了合约，可能是个人或一群人。

Somebody made a bundle of money knowing what the president was going to say, and they went out and jumped on the contracts, a person or a group of people.

这太糟糕了。

This is horrible.

我完全同意。

Couldn't agree more

同意你的看法。

with you.

这真是令人作呕。

It is disgusting.

你知道，在这种波动的情况下，合同数量的增加。

And you know, the increase in the amount of contracts in a situation where it's volatile.

好的。

Okay.

但这件事的时间点确实很可疑。

But the timing of this certainly stinks.

我不认为是某个人在把握时机。

And I don't think it's somebody at the timing.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为是很多人，汤姆，从中赚了钱。

I think it's a lot of people, Tom, that, that, that made money on it.

但这真的不公平。

But this is just, it's not fair.

对我们这样想根据现有信息进行投资的人来说，这不公平。

It's not fair to folks like us who want to try and make investments based upon the information that's available.

这明显是作弊。

And this is clearly cheating.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，就连9·11事件时，也发生过同样的事。

I mean, even a nine 11, the same thing happened.

新冠疫情时，也发生过同样的事。

COVID, the same thing happened.

你知道，每当政府合同从谷歌或亚马逊那里发出时，他们也在提前操作这些信息。

You know, the the constantly when government contracts are getting given out from Google or Amazon, you know, they're front running that stuff too.

所以，我的意思是，对于像大投资者或国会人士来说，存在着一层又一层的不公平优势。

So, I mean, there's just layers and layers and layers of unfair advantage for, you know, the, like, the bigger investors or people in congress.

你知道，他们做那种订单流支付的事，当他们看到一大笔散户投资者正要投资某样东西时，他们就能插队，抢先入场。

You know, they do, like, the payment for order flow thing where they could see a big line of retail investors coming trying to invest in something, and then they could cut the line and go in front of them before that comes in.

所以，是的，股票市场的结构对普通民众来说，存在大量恶劣的不公行为。

So, yeah, there's a whole lot of nasty stuff with, the way that stocks are investing as a structure against the average person.

让我们记住，这件事基本上被掩盖了，但当时有三位美联储官员辞职了。

Let's let's remember it kind of got swept under the rug, but you had three fed members resign.

没错。

Exactly.

你有罗森伯格、卡普兰，可能还有克劳德。

You had a Rosengrind, Kaplan and may have been clouded.

我不想说错，但我知道罗森伯格和卡普兰都辞职了，因为他们涉及可疑的交易。

I don't want to speak incorrectly, but I know Rosenberg and, and, Kaplan both resigned because there was questionable trading that they had.

这太疯狂了。

So, is crazy.

而这些当时都是美联储的官员。

And these are fed fed members at the time.

是的。

Yeah.

他们正是那些操作这些债券的人。

They were the ones deploying those bonds.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

波士顿的行长罗森格林和达拉斯的行长卡普兰，现在就职于一家投资银行。

Boston, Fred president Rosengrind and Dallas, Fred president, capital who now works at, an investment bank.

但是，

But,

好的。

yeah.

所以，罗森格林是被任命为副主席的理查德·克拉里塔。

So was, Rosengrind admitted vice chair, Richard Clarita.

就是这样。

That's what it was.

是克拉里塔。

It was Clarita.

所以我才是对的。

So I was right.

好吧。

Okay.

关于他们的辞职，就是这样。

There you go, on them resigning.

顺便说一下，这引出了《华尔街日报》上报道的那件事。

And by the way, this kind of leads to the story that came up on Wall Street Journal.

美联储下一次很可能是加息，而不是降息。

Fed likely hikes next, not cuts.

这是两天前的事。

This is, two days ago.

目前市场认为今年加息的可能性大于降息。

Market now see a rate hike more likely than a cut this year.

亚特兰大联储的概率追踪器显示，美联储降息的概率从二月的60%骤降至现在的16%。

The Atlanta Fed probability tracker shows Fed cut odds plummeting from 60% in February to 16% now.

美联储在未来三个月内加息的概率从零上升至15%。

And Fed hikes odds going up from zero to 15% over the next three months.

到三月底，期货市场暗示截至六月维持利率不变的概率为85%，加息概率为15%，降息概率为零，通胀仍高于目标水平。

By late March, futures imply 85% chance of no move through June hike odds 15% cut zero inflation remains above target.

同比通胀率为2.4%，远高于2%的目标。

With 2.4% year over year, well above the 2%.

一月份核心PCE物价指数为2.8%，根据一份标准报告，一次100个基点的加息，将使30万亿美元的债务每年增加约3000亿美元的利息支出。

The core PCE was 2.8% in January and one standard note, a 100% basis point hike would add about $300,000,000,000 annually in interest on $30,000,000,000,000 of U.

美国。

S.

债务，约占联邦预算的6%。

Debt, roughly 6% of the federal budget.

巴里，这个故事到底讲的是什么？

Barry, what is this story all about?

所以这里有几个要点。

So a couple of things here.

第一，联邦基金期货合约波动性极大。

One, Fed funds futures contracts are extraordinarily volatile.

所以它们肯定会变动。

So they are going to move.

因此你不能对未来的几个月过度解读，但最近的月份通常更准确。

So you can't read too much into future months, but the most recent month tends to be more accurate.

我认为我们不会看到利率上调。

I don't think we're going to see rate hikes.

我的意思是，永远不要说绝对不可能，但我们知道，在凯文·沃尔什接任之前，什么都不会发生，他会主持六月的会议。

I mean, there's never say never, but we, we know that nothing's going to happen until, Kevin Walsh takes the reins and he'll preside over the June meeting.

对吧？

Right?

我们有的那一次，我认为是4月29日。

The one that we have, I think it's April 29.

我们不会有任何美联储行动。

We're not going to have any fed action.

但凯文·沃尔什确实是执掌大权的绝佳人选。

But, but Kevin Walsh is a really, really good person to have at the reins.

记住，鲍威尔是律师，不是受过训练的经济学家。

Remember that, that Powell was an attorney, not a trained economist.

凯文·沃尔什在美联储有丰富经验。

Kevin Walsh has experienced at the fed.

他绝对有胜任这份工作的能力。

He certainly has the chops for this.

我相信，如果我们能控制住通胀，局势稳定下来，他会希望降息，因为这是必要的。

And I believe that he would like to cut if we have inflation under control, if this situation is under control, because you need it.

就业市场，我们并没有创造新的工作岗位。

The job market, we are not creating jobs.

如果你抛开所有干扰因素来看，GDP其实相当疲软。

GDP is pretty soft when you think about it and you remove all of the noise.

GDP确实很疲软。

It's pretty soft GDP.

目前交易利率略低于2%。

It's trading just below 2%.

当你看最终需求这一部分时，它剔除了库存和政府支出等项目，当我们看到真正的数据时——我更倾向于关注最终需求——它刚刚低于2%。

When you look at the final demand component, which takes out things like inventory and government spend, when we get the real numbers, which I like looking at as final demand, it's just under 2%.

这种增长可以说是疲软的。

That's kind of anemic growth.

考虑到劳动力市场的状况，美联储应该具备降息的条件。

Given the labor market conditions, the Fed should be in a position to cut.

人们担心通胀，但通胀被高估了，我们过去也讨论过，主要是住房成本的影响。

The fear is inflation, but inflation's overstated by we've talked about this in the past shelter.

今年夏天随着关税取消，通胀也可能获得一些缓解，你应该会开始看到这种变化，因为这些关税是在去年夏天实施的。

It's also probably going to get some relief as the tariffs come off this summer and you should start to see that because they were instituted last summer.

所以，与通胀不同，关税是一次性上调，之后趋于平稳，属于一次性价格调整。

So, you know, unlike inflation, tariffs are one step up and then it flattens out and then it's a one time price adjustment.

所以我认为他会倾向于降息。

So I think he'd like to cut.

我们不希望凯文·华盛顿这样总是想降息的鸽派人物在那儿。

We don't want Kevin Washington there as a dove who looks to cut all the time.

你知道，我真希望鲍威尔早在2021年和2022年就加息了。

You know, I wish Powell would have been, you know, hiking rates back in 2021 and 2022.

所以，你想要一位美联储主席，他开车时不会像你那位朋友那样总盯着后视镜。

So so you, you want a fed chair that doesn't look in the rearview mirror as they're driving down the freeway like we'd seen with your own pal.

你想要一个能透过前挡风玻璃，看清前方局势的人。

You want somebody that could look through the front windshield and look through these.

我觉得克里斯托弗·沃勒会是个出色的美联储主席。

I thought Christopher Waller would have been a great fed chair.

如果你听过他的讲话，他经常谈到着眼于未来。

If you hear him speak, he oftentimes talks about looking forward.

我认为凯文·沃尔什也会这么做。

I think Kevin Walsh will do the same thing.

所以我认为我们不会看到加息。

So I don't think we're gonna see a hike.

我认为到年底之前我们可能会看到一到两次降息。

I think it's likely that we see one or two cuts by the end of the year.

汤姆。

Tom.

我对降息持相同看法。

I'm on the same page with the cuts.

我肯定支持至少一次降息，而且我相当有信心会降两次。

I'm still in for definitely one cut, and I feel relatively confident there's gonna be two.

但如果你看看新闻媒体，即使是商业新闻媒体——不是那种深度的商业报道，而是大众化的、表面的报道——它们对市场波动的反应，就像对昨晚棒球比赛比分的反应一样。

But if you take a look at the way the news media, even the business news media, not the deep business news media, the popular stuff, the surface stuff, they react to market forces the same way they react to last night's score of a baseball game.

对吧？

Right?

哦，洋基队8比2击败红袜队，洋基队势头正盛。

Oh, Yankees eight, Boston two, Yankees on a roll.

而这仅仅是个标题。

And that's just that's just a headline.

我认为，对于所有这些统计数据，你必须全面地看待它们。

And I think what you have to look at all these statistics, you have to look at the totality of it.

例如，通货膨胀率顽固地高于2%。

For instance, this is, you know, inflation stubbornly above 2%.

是的，但你要看看它真正的状况。

Yeah, but look where it is really.

而且正如巴里所说，它被夸大了。

And it's and it's overstated, as Barry said.

看看失业率和经济真实发生的情况吧。

And take a look at what's really happening with unemployment and take a look at what's really happening with the economy.

你知道企业需要什么吗？

You know what business needs?

需要一点更便宜的资金来进行投资。

A little bit cheaper money to make some investment.

你知道美国该死的政府需要什么吗？

And you know what The US fricking government needs?

当我们重新发行即将到期的债务时，需要一点更便宜的资金。

A little bit cheaper money when we refile this debt, which is coming up.

所以我不希望出现冲动反应，一味地降、降、降。

So this is, I don't want a knee jerk reaction, just drop, drop, drop.

因为特朗普说，你知道的，把利率降到1%，降到1%。

Cause Trump says, you know, take them down to one, take them down to one.

不，不，不，不，不。

No, no, no, no, no.

我完全不同意这种观点。

I'm not on that page at all.

我绝对不认同特朗普成为美联储的实际负责人，由他来决定想要什么然后强行推行。

And I am definitely not on the page of that Trump becomes the de facto head of the Fed where he decides what he wants and then just forces it.

我认为即将上任的华沙人选是个非常优秀的人，我认为他很有能力。

I think what we've got coming in Warsaw is a really good person, and I think he's strong.

我认为他处事稳健。

Think he's got an even hand.

我看到这些标题，说下一次美联储利率变动可能是加息。

And I see these headlines, why the next Fed rate move could be a hike.

这是因为他们在关注

It's because they're looking at

这些

the

像昨晚棒球比赛的比分那样的三件小事。

last three little things that happened like the score of last night's baseball game.

我想强调的是，首先，这些观点。

I'd like to underscore is first of all, points.

当人们看到经济状况时，他们会说，你知道吗？

And one of the things that people look at when they see the economy and they say, well, you know what?

他们误读了初请失业金人数的数据，从而认为劳动力市场强劲。

The labor market is strong is they misread the initial jobless claims numbers.

你知道，我们明天就会得到这些数据。

You know, we'll get that, tomorrow.

而且这些数字一直非常稳定。

And they have been very, very well behaved.

所以这就是人们首次申请失业救济金的情况，你们都知道。

So this is people filing for unemployment benefits, as you guys know, for the first time.

这些数字一直异常低且保持一致。

And those numbers have been extraordinarily low and consistent.

我认为那些关注这些数据、观看CNBC上人们讨论、以及其他经济学家和我认为他们误解了重点的出版物的人。

I think that people that are looking at that and they watch people on CNBC talk about it and other economists and even publications that I think they missed the point.

我认为他们的思维还停留在疫情前的模式。

I think that their thinking is pre pandemic thinking.

我的意思是，从逻辑角度来看，美国的家庭中位收入是87,000美元。

I mean, think about it from a logical perspective, median income in The U S is $87,000 for a household.

所以假设某人收入在8万或9万美元左右，天啊，你刚刚失去了工作。

So let's just say somebody's making 80 or $90,000 You just heaven forbid, you just lost your job.

是的。

Yes.