石油史上最动荡的一天与安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 | PBD #757

所以他们已经被拔了爪子，这是一个大问题。

So they've been declawed and that that's a big issue.

那么现在这个问题是什么？

And so what's that what's that issue now?

而且你知道，我并不喜欢他。

And I'm, you know, not in love with him.

你说政权更迭，结果是从哈梅内伊换成了更年轻的哈梅内伊，连斯卡莫尼都不如。

You talk about regime change, you went from Khamenei to younger Khamenei and less than a Scaramucci.

说真的，八天后，你们根本没实现真正的政权更迭，这人是个铁腕人物。

Mean, eight days later, they got, you you got, you had no real regime change and this guy's a hardened guy.

所以我很担心这一点。

And so I'm, I'm worried about that.

话虽如此，那计划二是什么？

Now having said all that, what's plan two?

计划二就是狠狠打击他们，摧毁他们的导弹打击能力、无人机能力和生产能力。

Plan two is blow the living daylights out of them, degrade their missile strike capability, their drone capability And manufacture.

但要记住一件事，因为我去过阿富汗，了解那边的那些山脉。

But remember something, because I've been to Afghanistan, and I understand those mountain ranges over there.

他们把大量物资藏在那些山里。

They've got so much stuff hidden in those mountains.

所以你得在各地投下重型钻地炸弹，试图把它们炸出来。

And so you're gonna have to drop some severe bunker buster bombs all over the place to try to dislodge that.

这可是个巨大的国家，伙计们。

It's a gigantic country, guys.

帕特里克是在那里长大，或者至少出生在那里。

Patrick grew up or was raised at least born there.

九千三百万人，一个巨大的国家。

93,000,000 people, gigantic country.

它的面积几乎能正好放在美国本土的中部，还不包括沿海地区。

It would basically fit in the middle of The United States without the coasts.

那里有很多地形适合他们藏匿物资。

And they got a lot of terrain there where they could be hiding stuff.

最后一点，我认为这是最重要的：我们投下那些炸弹后，有大约四六十公斤的铀失踪了。

Last point, which I think is the most important one, you've got four sixty or so kilos of uranium, that's missing since we dropped those bombs.

因此，总统知道，我们的人员也明白，这正是他们考虑派遣地面部队或特种部队进入该地区，试图将这些核裂变材料运出该国的原因。

And so the president knows that our people know that that's why they're thinking about putting a, a, ground troops or special forces in there to see if they can get that the nuclear fissile material out of the country.

那是一千公斤，也就是大约一千磅的武器级材料。

That's a thousand kilos, so that's about a thousand pounds of weapons grade.

我们推测。

We think.

我们不确定，但这是我们的看法。

We don't know, but that's what we think.

但如果这个数字正确，那就是一千磅的武器材料。

But if that number is correct, it's a thousand pounds of weapons.

所以，让我们在情况室里讨论一下情况室的应对方案。

So be in the situation room, let's workshop the situation room.

你是美国总统，你的盟友以色列，他们想摧毁以色列。

You're the president of The United States, your allies, Israel, they want to destroy Israel.

他们在该地区制造混乱。

They're wreaking havoc in the region.

我肯定帕特里克知道这一点。

I'm sure Patrick knows this.

海湾国家同时在说两件事。

The Gulf States are saying two things at the same time.

私下里告诉总统，我们支持你。

Telling the president quietly, we support you.

但在公开场合。

Publicly.

然后他们又发表公开信说不支持他，不过这其实挺正常的。

And then they're writing open letters that they don't support him, which is totally cool, by the way.

这正是德尔西·罗德里格斯在马杜罗被斩首后所做的。

This is exactly what Delsy Rodriguez did after the decapitation of Maduro.

我不会接受总统的胡扯，但那一切都是演的。

I'm not going to take the BS of the president, but that was all staged.

所以你接收到的是两条信息渠道，但海湾国家实际上在悄悄告诉总统：尽全力打击他，但别毁掉我们的经济，也别毁掉全球经济。

So you're getting two channels of information, but the Gulf States are really telling the president, hit him as hard as you possibly can, but don't destroy our economies and don't destroy the global economy.

顺便说一下，伊朗人也一直在考虑这个问题，我知道我打不赢美国，但我必须熬过他们，还得恐吓这个地区所有与美国结盟的国家。

By the way, the Iranians, because they've been thinking about this too, I can't beat The United States, but I got to outlast them and I have to terrorize the countries in this region that are allied with The United States.

这就是为什么你会看到无人机飞向迪拜机场，袭击公寓大楼。

And that's why you're seeing drones going into the Dubai Airport, hitting apartment buildings.

那

That

真够狠的。

a rough one.

大概不该袭击学校。

Probably shouldn't be shooting at schools.

我觉得那是犯了个错误。

I think that was a mistake.

我认为总统没有承认这一点，这是个错误。

I think the president is making a mistake by not owning up to that.

击中学校的是一枚战斧导弹。

That was a Tomahawk missile that hit the school.

我确信美国人并不是故意这么做的。

I'm certain that the Americans didn't do that on purpose.

不幸的是，这就是战争的迷雾。

That's unfortunately the fog of war.

但既然已经承认了，我们就别纠结了，因为如果这事发生在我们身上，我们也会发疯的。

But just admitted and let's let's let's move on because because if it happened to us, we'd be crazy.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

不过，这件事相比委内瑞拉的情况显得很粗糙。

This thing feels sloppy though compared to Venezuela.

就像委内瑞拉，去年对伊朗的打击非常精准，使用了钻地炸弹。

Like, Venezuela Venezuela was meticulous that strike on Iran last year was meticulous with the bunker buster bombs.

所以这简直让我怀疑，他们现在是不是在策略性地装傻？因为即使海格塞斯和其他将军上去后，他们也表现得对霍尔木兹海峡该怎么做完全不清楚，这正是我认为石油市场如此动荡的原因——我的意思是，如果他们真想大开杀戒，清理掉它应该相当容易，但我也不确定。

So it's almost like I I'm wondering if they're strategically acting incompetent right now because even when, Haigseth and the other general goes up there, they're acting like they're unclear on what they wanna do with the Strait Of Hormuz, which is why I think the oil market's been so volatile because I I mean, I imagine that it's pretty easy to clear it out if they want extra savage, but I don't know.

他们并没有展现出要大开杀戒的意愿。

Like, they're not showing the willingness to be extra savage.

所以让我插一句，因为我觉得这才是问题所在。

So so let me let me jump in because I I think I think that this is the problem.

他们有点过于自信了，就像我们有时会那样。

They got a little overconfident as we sometimes do.

我一些最糟糕的错误，就是当我过于自信的时候，尤其是在市场中——他们在委内瑞拉的行动执行得非常完美。

I Some of my worst mistakes is when I'm overconfident, particularly in markets, they beautifully executed in Venezuela.

他们以为这会是一场六到十二天的战争。

They saw this as a six or twelve day war.

我知道他们做了什么。

And I know what they did.

他们去找了海湖庄园的总统，说：‘嘿，看看1967年那场六日战争。’

They went to the president of Mar A Lago and said, Hey, look at this six day war in 1967.

以色列人把埃及人打得落花流水。

The Israelis knocked the daylights out of the Egyptians.

这迫使埃及走向世俗化，并最终导致了那场战争中的前线局势。

It forced secularism in Egypt and it eventually led Fronts in that war.

是的，正是如此。

Yeah, exactly.

他们占领了西奈半岛，但后来在戴维营协议中不得不归还，不过这一行动促成了世俗化。

And they took over the Sinai Peninsula, had to give it back to him in the Camp David Accords, but it caused secularization.

你这里有个机会。

You have a chance here.

去年，他们打了一场十二天的战争。

Last year, had the twelve day war.

伊朗人反扑回来，并没有造成实质性的损害。

No real damage from the Iranians coming back to us.

我们要打这场六天、十二天、二十一天的战争。

We're going do this six, twelve, twenty one days.

不会有任何实际损害。

There'll be no real damage.

但一旦你针对了最高领袖，记得特朗普在白宫说过的话。

But once you went after the Supreme Leader, remember what Trump has said from the White House.

如果他们除掉我，我已给其他人留下了一整份针对伊朗人的行动清单。

If they take me out, there's a whole list of things I've given people to do to the Iranians.

是的。

Yeah.

你听过他这么说。

You've heard him say that.

所以想象一下，最高领袖已经被除掉，而伊朗人正按照事先被告知的计划逐一执行报复。

So just imagine the supreme leader has now been taken out and the Iranians are going down the list they were told to do after that takeout.

对。

Right.

因此，总统和他的团队，我现在要提出批评。

And so the president and his team, I am now being critical.

我只是告诉你这个愿景是什么。

Just tell you what the vision is.

他们没有预料到这一点。

They didn't anticipate that.

这才是关键，对吧？

And that's the big thing, right?

你知道，就像迈克·泰森会说的，每个人挨打时都有反击的余地。

That's what, you know, Mike Tyson would tell you, you know, everybody has a planet to your punch in the face.

你知道，第101空降师和第82空降师在D日之前的6月5日被空投到了指定地点之外。

You know, you were in the one hundred and first airborne eighty first eighty second airborne was dropped off-site on June 5, prior to D day.

他们必须在三百六十度的范围内杀出一条路。

They had to fight their way out of that in a three sixty degree circle.

所以战争中总会发生一些糟糕的事情。

So we have things that go on in war that are bad.

现在他们正在重新调整，但那终究是错误。不过，如果他处理得好，好吧——我一直是总统的批评者，大家都知道，我不喜欢谈论民主及其面临的威胁，但如果他处理得当，他就能两全其美。

So now they're recalibrating, but that was ultimately the mistake, but if he handles this well, okay, and I've been a critic of the president, I think people know that, I don't like the process of talking about the democracy and the threat to it, but if he handles this well, he could have his cake and eat it too.

他可能不会实现政权更迭和消除那里的极端主义，但可以让这个国家被边缘化，从而降低油价并实现稳定。

He could have a marginal maybe not going to get the regime change and the fanaticism there, but he could have a marginalized country which will lower those oil prices and stabilize

胜利是什么？

What's the victory?

因为你要明白，对你来说，胜利意味着什么。

That Because you got to me, what victory is to U.

美国。

S.

我认为这和以色列的胜利并不相同。

I don't think it's the same victory as it is to Israel.

我觉得你们在这里并不一致。

Don't think you're aligned there.

你同意这一点吗？

Would you agree with that?

百分之百。

A 100%.

你也同意这一点吗？

Would you agree with that as well?

100%。

100%.

对你们来说的胜利。

Victory to U.

S。

S.

这和对以色列的胜利不同，汤姆？

Is different than victory for Israel, Tom?

是也不是。

Yes and no.

其中一部分是这样的，但摩萨德一直如此，我并不是摩萨德的发言人。

There's part of it is, but Mossad has always had, and I'm not a spokesperson for Mossad.

我对他们非常批评。

I'm very critical of them.

摩萨德一直有自己的议程，而且他们的议程往往非常不同，有时甚至更加致命

Mossad has always had their agenda and their agenda has been very different and sometimes a lot more lethal

是的

Yeah.

比西方和联合国更甚

Than the West and the UN.

因为北约一直是朋友

Because NATO has been a friend.

美国也一直是朋友

The US have been a friend.

人们说，不，不，不，你一直是被以色列牵着走

People say, no, no, no, you've been led by Israel.

不，不，不

No, no, no.

确实有一些时候，好吧，我们在这方面意见一致

There have been times where okay, here's where we all agree.

但以色列还有其他致命的行动。

But then Israel's had these other lethal things to do.

以色列曾用导弹从黎巴嫩的公寓楼中清除人员，却没有告知美国。

Israel has taken people out of apartment buildings in Lebanon with missiles and didn't tell The U.

美。

S.

国。

U.

部。

S.

中央情报局对此知情。

CIA knew about it.

我读过一些资料。

I've read stuff.

我们接触过泄露此事的中央情报局人员。

We've talked to CIA people that have leaked it.

他们说，中情局知道，而且认为，那个在黎巴嫩被炸死的人。

Said, the CIA knew and said, know, we really think that guy that got in Lebanon kaboom.

嗯，他们确实这么做了，你知道的？

Well, they did it, You know?

所以

And so

所以对他们来说，如果你是他们

So to so to them, if you were They

内心还有别的打算。

have another agenda down deep.

我明白。

I get that.

那所以

So what

我认为他们想要一个失败的分治国家。

I'm I think thinking they want a failed partition state.

这就是我的想法。

That's what I think.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

所以他们想除掉属于他们的权利。

So they want to get rid of what's their right.

他们想要叙利亚和黎巴嫩。

They want Syria, Lebanon.

以色列审视自身的生存，认为如果我们拥有失败的分治国家，以及愿意与以色列和美国做生意的世俗阿拉伯人，我们在这一地区就会过得很好。

Israel looks at its survival and says, we do really well in this region if we have failed partition states, and we have secular Arabs that wanna do business with Israel and The United States.

这就是亚伯拉罕协议。

That's the Abraham Accords.

在激进派一方，不幸的是，什叶派穆斯林更希望看到的是失败的国家，而不是任何有组织的体系。

On the side where there's the radicals, unfortunately, the Shia Muslims, they would rather have them have failed states than anything organized.

我不认为美国人想要那样。

I don't think the Americans want that.

这只是我在表达自己的看法。

That's just me talking now.

美国人不想要——不，美国人不想要一个失败的政权。

Americans don't want -No, the Americans don't want a failed stadium.

想要一个受控的领导人。

Want a controlled leader.

那就是他们想要的。

-That's what they want.

你现在并没有。

-You don't have it right now.

没有。

-No.

没有。

-No.

-他们想要的是德塞拉德比。

-They want a Delsea rivalry.

-你不能搞德塞拉，因为那里没有VP模式，对吧？

-You can't do a Delsea because there's not a VP model there, right?

所以，你不能像委内瑞拉那样去做，那种事不会发生。

So it's not like you can go do what happened to Venezuela is not going to happen.

汤姆说了一些非常重要的事。

Tom said something very important.

他说，你知道，自杀式袭击者的问题在哪里？

He says, you know, what's the problem with suicide bombers?

亨伯托问：什么？

And Humberto said, what?

他说的是‘自杀’这部分。

He says the suicide part.

他说，当你上战场并愿意为国家牺牲生命时，你就改变了游戏规则。

He says, when you're going to war and you're willing to commit suicide on behalf of your country, you change the game.

委内瑞拉人不是这样想的。

Venezuelans don't think that way.

只有少数几个国家是这样想的。

There's only a couple countries that think that way.

对。

Right.

我愿意去那里，比如伊朗就是其中之一。

I'm willing to go out there and, you know, do, you know, Iran being one of them.

但当你在考虑这个问题时，我刚刚只是搜索了一下我自己。

But when you're looking at this, so in your mind, I just pulled up right now just to search for myself.

以色列策划并执行了这次行动，目标是杀死霍梅尼。

So Israel planned and executed the strike operationally to kill Khomeini.

美。

U.

国。

S.

只是提供了情报和军事支持以执行这次行动。

Simply provided the intelligence and military support for the operation.

以色列把他们干掉了。

Israel took them out.

当然，他们现在正在这方面合作。

They provided now, of course they're working together on this.

当然。

Sure.

但这就是我的立场。

But this is where I'm at.

当他们问我问题时，他们问：你觉得他们该不该杀了霍梅尼？

When they asked me a question, they said, do you think they should kill Khomeini?

如果你杀了哈梅内伊，这位最高领袖已经86岁了，反正也快死了，但如果你除掉他，再干掉50个人，这就像是黑帮火并。

If you kill Khamenei, the supreme leader, he's 86, he's about to be dead here soon anyways, but if you take him out and now you take out 50, it's like in the mob war.

如果突然你干掉了老大、二当家、小头目、和事佬，那你最好把整个家族连根拔起。

If all of a sudden you took out the boss, the underboss, the copos, the conciliatory, you better take out the entire family.

你不能让他们留下来，因为这个被留下的人，你们有没有看过那个纸板下面的片段？

You can't let them stay because this guy that's left behind, did you guys see the clip down the cardboard?

我觉得大家都看过这个片段。

I think everybody saw this clip.

人们一开始以为这是《南方公园》，但顺便问一下，布兰登，你看过这个吗？

People thought this was a Initially when I thought, I thought this was South Park, but by the way, have you seen this Brandon or no?

所以这是他们在庆祝他们的新最高领袖，播放一下。

So this is them celebrating their new Supreme leader, press play.

好的。

Okay.

把音乐关掉。

Turn off the music route.

这并不是人工智能生成的。

So this is not AI.

这是真实的。

This is real.

一开始我说，这不可能是真的。

At first I said, there's no way this is real.

你能去下面的评论区，找一个叫‘grok’的评论，问‘这是真的吗？’

Can you go to the comment section on the bottom and go to one of the grok saying, is this real?

好的。

Okay.

继续往下翻，继续翻，一直翻，再继续翻。

Can you go to keep going, keep going, keep going, going, keep going.

好的。

Okay.

就点那个地方。

Go to that one right there.

这个视频来自伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队对莫赫塔巴·霍梅尼的效忠仪式，他在三月父亲阿里遇袭身亡后被任命为新最高领袖。

This clip is from IRGC allegiance ceremony of Mochtabah Khomeini, new Supreme Leader appointed March after his father Ali's death in strikes.

他看起来并不像活着的样子。

He didn't appear alive.

所以他们用了纸板人偶。

So they used the cardboard cutout.

这是Grok在伊朗国家电视台从德黑兰播出的节目。

This is Grok broadcast on Iranian state TV from Tehran.

简短版本是广泛流传的那个。

The short version is one circulating widely.

原始视频已不再公开可用。

No longer raw footage is publicly available.

那么重点是什么？

So what's the point?

所以你把他们移除了。

So you took them out.

现在儿子已经离开了。

Now the son has left.

你杀了他父亲。

You killed his father.

你杀了他妻子。

You killed his wife.

你杀了他母亲。

You killed his mom.

你杀了他妹妹。

You killed his sister.

你杀了他侄子们。

You killed his nephews.

你杀了他儿子们。

You killed his sons.

你杀了他一个孩子，我不确定还有谁被杀了。

You killed one of his kids is, I don't know who else it was that was killed.

现在他会留下来，而你会让他留下。

Now he's gonna stay and you're gonna let him stay.

我觉得如果你已经做到这一步了，那要么你就彻底做完，要么你从一开始就不该这样干。

I think if you've gone this deep, I think you either have to go finish the job or you should have never done it this way in the first place.

所以这个新人心怀怨恨，且有远见。

So the new guy is bitter with a vision.

他心怀怨恨，为了一种信念，这个新人。

He's bitter with a cause, the new guy.

周围全是这些东西。

-With all of that around him.

我来制造

Me make

让他——等等，我们倒回去看一下。

him a -Let flip it back around for a second.

让我们倒回去看一下。

Let's flip it back around.

所以他们是我们的敌人。

So they're enemies of ours.

他们袭击了白宫。

They hit the White House.

他们炸了总统，愿上帝保佑。

They blow up the president, God forbid.

然后，他们袭击了我们一个军事基地附近的一所学校，杀死了我们所有军人的女儿。

They then, hit a school near one of our military installations and kill all the daughters of our military people.

接着，他们袭击了新泽西的炼油厂，那里离曼哈顿非常近。

And then they hit New Jersey refineries, are very close to Manhattan.

他们炸毁了炼油厂，让浓烟笼罩我们人口最密集的城市之一，让所有人窒息。

They blow up the refineries and they send black smoke into one of our most populated cities and they choke all the people.

好吧。

Okay.

那么，美国将如何应对这种情况？

And how is The United States going to react to that?

嗯，反过来想想。

Well, just flip it around.

哦，没问题。

Oh, no problem.

是的

Yeah.

很好

Good.

好的

Okay.

我们是弱小的还是强大的？

Are we small or are we big?

我们是更有力量的一方，还是处于劣势的一方？

Are we the more powerful one or are we the underdog?

我们是被看好的一方吗？

Are we the favorite?

因为这其中有很大的区别。

Because there's a big difference.

那我们来分别讨论一下，帕特里克。

So let's go through both, Patrick.

你来说吧。

Go for it.

嗯，我。

Well, me

如果我们是 favored 的话。

if we're the favorite.

我认为如果我们是 favored 的话，我们会像在911事件时那样彻底疯狂。

I think if we're the favorite, we're going to go absolutely crazy like we did in nineeleven.

我们会像在世贸中心被毁、五角大楼被炸时那样疯狂。

We're go crazy like we did when they knocked down the trade center and bombed the Pentagon.

所以我认为这是第一点。

So I think that's number one.

如果我们比他们弱小，我认为我们会采用游击战术。

If we're smaller than them, I think we're going to try to gorilla tactically.

我同意。

I agree.

这就是两个。

Those are the two.

不过他们针对的是最脆弱的部分，因为他们攻击了那些在很多方面都高度依赖的周边国家。

They went after what's most vulnerable though because like they went after the surrounding countries that were very dependent on in a lot of ways.

你知道，如果你拿掉了石油，或者那个，是水吗？

You know, if you take out the oil or the the, was it the water there?

海水淡化。

The, desalination.

那里的淡化水。

Desalinated water there.

让我帮你念一下。

Like, let me help you pronounce it.

海水淡化。

Desalination.

你请说。

Go ahead.

不是那样。

That no.

对。

Yeah.

这就是整个石油美元体系。

That's the whole petrodollar system.

美元之所以有价值，是因为石油来自中东，所有人都必须用美元购买石油。

Like, the reason the dollar has value is because of the oil comes from The Middle East, and everybody has to buy oil in dollars.

所以，说实话，我很好奇他们是否预料到伊朗会这样针对周边的中东国家。

So, I mean, I don't I I I'm curious if they anticipated Iran going after the surrounding Middle East countries like that.

我也很好奇他们是否预料到伊朗会关闭霍尔木兹海峡。

And I'm curious if they anticipate Iran shutting down the Strait Of Hormuz.

我觉得在战争推演中，这应该是你们会预测到的事情，但他们现在的反应却不像事先预料到了这一点。

Like, I would imagine in war gaming, that's the thing you would, predict that, but they're not reacting as if they predicted it.

所以，这些就是我感兴趣的问题。

So the like, those are things I'm curious about.

我认为他们没有预料到这一点。

I I would say I don't think that they predicted that.

而且我认为

And I think that

霍尔木兹海峡还是对那些邻国的轰炸？

they The Hormuz or the bombing of those neighbors?

我都认为。

I have both.

真的吗？

I Really?

你不觉得他们认为这种情况会发生吗？

You don't think they thought that was gonna happen?

不。

No.

因为我觉得他们参考了去年的那场十二天战争。

Because I think they looked at the twelve day war from last year.

他们回顾了2020年1月对苏莱曼尼的打击行动，当时他们除掉了这位将军。

They looked at the Soleimani hit in January 2020, where they took out the general.

他们表示，会努力维持政权稳定，并会评估后续反应。

And they said that they're gonna try to keep the regime together, and they're gonna measure the response.

我认为总统当时考虑的是：好吧，这些都没问题。

And I think what the president was looking at is, okay, all that's fine.

让我们清除一些这些神职人员，换一个世俗主义者进来。

Let's re let's remove some of these clerics and get a secularist in there.

他是一个善于谈判的人。

And he's a dealmaker.

明白吗？

Okay?

你喜欢或不喜欢特朗普。

And you like or dislike Trump.

这就是这笔交易的要点。

Here was the deal.

你靠毒品赚钱，靠石油赚钱，还受到严厉制裁。

You you're making money off drugs, and you're making money off oil, and you're heavily sanctioned.

你就是委内瑞拉。

You're Venezuela.

我会解除制裁，你可以帮我减缓毒品流入美国。

I'm gonna take the sanctions off, you can help me slow down the drugs into The U.

而且，我会把这里每个人的工资提高三倍，包括你们的军队将领。

S, and I'm gonna triple the pay for everybody here, including your army generals.

他们说：就这么办。

And they said, Let's do it.

委内瑞拉不是伊朗。

Venezuela's not Iran.

好吧。

Okay.

然后下一刻，他们就在一夜之间介入，把马杜罗抓走了，没有流血，甚至都没和他们交战。

And then the next moment, they come in and they take Maduro, one night, no bloodshed, they're not even fighting them.

委内瑞拉不是伊朗，但我认为总统以为，通过削弱他们，或许能促成某种世俗化。

Venezuela's not Iran, but I think the president thought that there would be a way to create some secularism as a result of degrading them.

那么现在的问题是，如果你无法实现这种世俗化，下一步该怎么做？

And now the question is, if you can't create this secularism, what's the next step?

我认为B计划就是把他们彻底炸成碎片，让他们完全垮掉。

I think the plan B is blow them to smithereens so that they're totally degraded.

但问题是，你不知道铀在哪里，也不知道他们在那些山脉的隧道里藏了什么。

But here's the problem with that, you don't know where the uranium is, and you don't know what they've got in these tunnels inside those mountain ranges.

对我来说，如果你已经深陷至此，事情发展到这一步，就不可能回头了。

To me, if you're this deep, if you're in this deep and this is what happened, there is no turning around.

如果你现在要做什么呢？

If you're going to now do what?

好的。

Okay.

嘿，我们刚干掉了你们50位领导人和亲属。

Hey, we just killed 50 of your leaders and relatives.

好了，各位，我们能不能别谈判了？

Okay guys, can we not negotiate?

对。

Yeah.

听好了，进来谈吧。

Look, come in and negotiate.

你该怎么情绪平稳地走进谈判室？

How would you emotionally walk into the negotiating room?

你怎么可能做到？你坐在那里想着，我们要把这些人全部除掉。

How would you be able to, you're like sitting there saying, we're going to take every one of these guys out.

你觉得这让中东更安全了吗？

Do you think this made the Middle East safer?

你觉得这真的让紧张局势缓解了吗？

Do you think this just made tensions go lower?

你觉得——顺便问一下，我换个方式问：对我们来说，我们远在西半球这里。

Do you think, and by the way, let me ask a question maybe in a different way For us, we're out all the way out here in the Western Hemisphere.

我们并不担心伊朗。

We're not worried about Iran.

他们没有任何东西能威胁到我们。

They don't have anything that could come to us.

他们唯一的方式是。

Only way they can.

我知道伊朗在墨西哥有一个规模不小的使馆，那是1964年沙阿时期建的。

I know Iran's got a good sized embassy in Mexico that they built in 1964 under the shah.

所以谁知道他们会做什么，他们和贩毒集团的关系如何。

So who knows what they're going to be doing, their relations with cartel.

你有非常多不同的方式可以来试图攻击我们。

You have a lot of different ways to come and try to attack us.

对吧？

Right?

但我想问你们一个问题，那些认为以色列影响着美国决策、并代表自身利益进行谈判的人们。

But here's a question for you, you know, to the community that says Israel has influence over what America does and Israel is going to negotiate on behalf of what's important to them.

对吧？

Right?

你觉得以色列现在坐在那里吗？

Do you think Israel is sitting there?

内塔尼亚胡正坐在那里，观察当前局势，觉得他的人民更安全了。

A Bibi is sitting there, seeing where it's at right now, saying he feels safer for his people.

意思是，假设特朗普下来宣布：伙计们，战争结束了，霍尔木兹海峡的油价不会上涨。

Meaning say Trump comes down and says, guys, the war is over, Strait Of Hormuz oil prices are not going to go.

这不会是1984年或1988年的油轮战争。

This is not going to be the tanker war of nineteen eighty four, 1988.

我们不会让油价上涨，你知道的，涨到之前那种400%的程度，迫使他们进来投保。

We're not going to have the prices go up, you know, whatever 400% that they have to come in and supply the insurance.

当我们决定保护时，我们会把一切安排妥当。

When we're going to protect, we're going to take care of everything.

你不需要担心这些事情。

You don't have to worry about this stuff.

好的。

Okay.

因为他从市场角度考虑，市场在中期选举时下跌，支持率也下降。

And because he's thinking from what market standpoint, markets down midterms, approval.

你知道，特朗普是个数据导向的人。

Cause you know, Trump's a data guy.

所以他总是关注支持率和K值，然后是中国，他试图推动与中国进行谈判。

So it's always looking at what approval rating and K and then China, he's trying to get China's negotiating going.

但在这个情况下，依我看来，如果特朗普退出并说：我们进去了，我们尽了本分，我们已经得分了。

But in this case, if Trump, my opinion, if Trump walks out of this and says, went in, we did our part, we're scored away.

你知道谁会倒霉吗？

Do you know who's screwed?

如果特朗普退出，只有一个国家会完蛋，那就是以色列。

If Trump walks out of this, one country, Israel is screwed.

现在特朗普可能会说：你不是我的头号优先事项。

Now Trump may say, you're not my number one priority.

美国人是我的首要任务。

Americans are my number one priority.

如果特朗普退出，你就扔下了炸弹，杀死了50位最重要的领导人，而他们还是你的邻居。

If Trump walks out, you just dropped the bomb, killed 50 of the biggest leaders and they're your neighbors.

他们曾表示，在未来二十五年里，我们会尽一切可能。

And they've said in the next twenty five years, we're going to do everything we can in our power.

他在2015年说过，要确保以色列不复存在。

He said this in 2015, Khamenei said to make sure that Israel doesn't exist.

他在2015年说过。

He said this in 2015.

所以他提到二十五年，也就是从2015年到2040年。

So he said twenty five years, that's what between 2015 and 2040.

你不觉得他们正坐在那里盘算着吗？在我看来，以色列一直以来都是目标，但现在优先级更高了。

You don't think they're sitting there thinking about So Israel, in my opinion, officially they've always been a target, but it just went up.

那么，内塔尼亚胡现在在想什么？

So what is BB thinking right now?

BB现在是不是在想，我得打个电话，说服这家伙继续打完这场战争。

Is BB thinking I got to make the phone call and convince this guy to continue to finish this war.

如果不这样，我就危险了。

If not, I'm not safe.

是的。

Yeah.

他认为这还只是第一局。

He thinks this is the first inning.

想想现在BB和他的团队正坐在那里说：伙计们，你们真觉得BB希望战争结束吗？

Think BB right now, BB's team is sitting there right now saying, guys, can't, you think BB wants the war to stop?

伙计们，我们已经掌控局面了。

Guys, guys, we got it.

我们上吧。

Let's go.

我们上吧。

Let's go.

但事实是，不是现在。

And it's like, no, not right now.

我正在关注经济的状况。

I'm seeing what's going on with the economy.

我不认为，你提到的两者之间的脱节，如果今天就停止，首先对伊朗人来说更糟。

I don't think, the part where you're saying with the disconnect between the two, if this stops today, first of all, if it stops today, it's worse for Iranians.

那些在那里的人，对以色列来说也很糟糕。

The people who are there, it's terrible for Israel.

我认为对以色列和伊朗人来说都很糟糕。

I think it's terrible for Israel first and the Iranians.

这些对我来说将是一股浪潮。

Those will be a tide for me.

但特朗普可能会简单地说：听着，伙计，那是你的问题。

But Trump may simply say, look, man, that's your problem.

我们已经尽了我们的责任。

We did our part.

我们提供了情报。

We gave you the intel.

如果你想要了结此事，你有机会为自己辩护，但我不会出来破坏我正在与俄罗斯、中国、普京、习近平推进的交易，习近平即将来访，他们月底有个会议。

If you want to wrap it up, you have the opportunity to defend yourself, but I'm not going to come out here and screw up my deals that I'm trying to do with Russia, with China, with Putin, with Xi, Xi's coming, they're having a meeting end of the month.

我认为是3月31日，如果我没记错的话，他们安排了会议。

I think March 31, they got a meeting that's scheduled, if I'm not mistaken.

我认为，如果这件事现在停止，今天处境最糟糕的国家，依我看来，首先是以色列。

I think the country that it's in the worst situation today, if this stops, I think in my opinion, Israel's first.

是的。

Yeah.

但我们已经陷得太深了，因为现在我们看到了

We're in too deep though, because now we see what the

不过我们也许能抽身，我的意思是，U。

We may get out though, what I'm saying, U.

S。

S.

可能会说，S。

May say, S.

顺便说一句，如果特朗普突然说：我退出了，那就完了。

If by the way, if Trump all of a sudden says, I'm out, that's it.

我帮了你这么多。

This is how much I'm helping you.

如果他说：我退出了。

If he says, I'm out.

因为他们意识到你们面对的是20万伊斯兰革命卫队士兵。

Because they're realizing you got 200,000 IRGC troops.

好吧。

Okay.

这可不是委内瑞拉，你不能像中情局想的那样，用一百万到两千五百万美元的赏金来策反他们。

This is not Venezuela that you're to be able to do the rewards for justice that whatever the CIA wants to give million to $25,000,000 to convert them.

然后还有九千五百万、九千三百万伊朗平民，他们没有枪支，没有武器，也没有自保的能力。

Then you have the 95,000,000, 93,000,000 Iranians that don't have guns, don't have weapons, don't have a way to protect themselves.

那你打算怎么做？

So what are you going to do?

然后你还有霍尔木兹海峡。

Then you have the Strait Of Hormuz.

拖得越久，油价就涨到200美元，中期选举迫在眉睫。

The longer it goes, prices go to $200, midterms around the corner.

美国民众在说：等等。

American people are saying, wait a minute.

你看那些视频里，洛杉矶某些地方的汽油价格已经涨到6.07美元、8美元了。

Like you see the videos being posted gas prices in some parts of LA, $6.07, $8.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

你觉得这些视频对他有利吗？

This, you think these videos are good for him?

不，不，但如果他现在退出，油价该怎么确定呢？因为我猜他们现在因为之前对他们的所作所为而怀恨在心。

No, no, but but how's the street, the price of oil get fixed if he pulls out now, because I imagine they're on a vendetta now because of what was done to them.

所以我猜他们会在这个地区造成巨大混乱。

So I imagine they're going to cost havoc in the region.

他们是谁？

They is who?

伊朗。

Iran.

所以我不明白维克是谁？

So I don't What is Vic?

好吧。

Okay.

那我们不如这么做？

So why don't we do this?

我们来谈谈这个。

Let's talk about this.

对伊朗来说，胜利意味着什么？

What's victory to Iran?

是伊斯兰革命卫队，不是人民。

IRGC, not the people.

对以色列来说，胜利意味着什么？

What's victory to Israel?

对美国来说，胜利意味着什么？

What's victory to U.

S？

S?

你觉得呢？

What would you say?

汤姆，我先问你。

Tom, I'll go to you first.

胜利意味着

Victory to

以色列，美国。

Israel, U.

S。

S.

美国在任何方面都退缩。

The US backs off in any way.

我觉得是这样。

I think so.

然后他们可以说，即使被摧毁了，即使我们

And then they can say, even if they're destroyed, even if we

仍然掌控着。

took There's still in charge.

占领了岛屿并控制住了。

Island and held it.

不。

No.

即使那里所有的东西都在。

Even if it's all the stuff that's there.

如果我们退缩，而新的最高领导人还在，他们就赢了。

If we back off and the new supreme leader is there, they win.

是的。

Yeah.

因为这意味着政权没有改变。

Because it means the regime hasn't changed.

他们通过失败而获胜。

They win by losing.

他们现在就赢了。

They win by now

顺便问一下，如果你是伊朗的最高领导人，你会怎么做？

By the way, what do you do if you're a supreme What do you do if you're a leader of Iran and The U.

S。

S.

退出？

Backs out?

你在电视上怎么做？

What do you do on TV?

你会说什么？

What do you say?

所以你觉得你

So you think You

制作所有假视频

run all the fake videos

你说什么？

What do say?

就说我们击落了飞机，大撒旦逃跑了。

Say we knocked down airplanes and the great Satan ran away.

最简单的宣传。

Easiest propaganda.

更容易的是，ML Jung在特朗普多次拜访他之后，在朝鲜制作了所有宣传视频。

Easier ML Jung did in North Korea with all the propaganda videos after Trump visited him a few times.

是的。

Mhmm.

好的。

Okay.

继续说，汤姆。

Keep going, Tom.

那你继续吧。

So go ahead.

把另外两个也说出来。

Give the other two.

那就是胜利，那是我们的胜利。

That's so that's the that is the victory for The victory for U.

美。

S.

彻底的政权更迭，你知道的，一个世俗主义者上台。

Is complete regime change and this, you know, a a secularist comes into power.

所以伊朗，他们保持掌权。

So so so Iran, they stay in power.

美国的政权更迭，不是崩溃。

US regime change, not collapse.

不。

No.

不。

No.

崩溃，然后出现一个新的世俗主义者。

Collapse and a new secularist.

哦，所以是崩溃。

Oh, so collapse.

不是改变，因为

Not change because

不。

No.

不。

No.

你必须让他们重回19年的崩溃状态。

You gotta you gotta you gotta get them on the path back to '19 collapse.

那以色列呢？

How about to Israel?

一样吗？

Same?

以色列希望看到美国的胜利就是以色列的胜利，但以色列真正想要的是，理想情况下，以色列希望所有人都变成约旦人。

Israel wants to see ironic that the victory for US is the victory for Israel, but Israel really wants look, ideally, Israel needs everyone to be Jordan.

这不会发生。

That's not gonna happen.

这在叙利亚也不会发生。

That's not gonna happen in Syria.

因此，他们需要陷入瘫痪的国家。

And so they need crippled states.

那么，对以色列来说，胜利是什么？

So what is victory for Israel?

对以色列而言，胜利就是伊朗成为一个无法对其发动攻击的瘫痪国家。

Israel is that Iran is a crippled state with no ability to attack it.

不幸的是，这会使伊朗变成世界上最大的索马里，各地军阀割据，各自为政。

Unfortunately, that turns Iran in the world's largest Somalia with warlords and districts taking.

好的。

Okay.

不过，这里面内容很多。

Well, there's a lot there.

所以我同意失败国家的说法，因为我认为他们觉得更容易掌控一个失败的国家。

So I I agree with the failed state because I think they feel like they can manage a failed state better.

但从他们的长期利益来看，特朗普的愿景才是正确的。

But in their way long term interest, they would Trump is gonna Trump Trump's vision is right.

那我们来逐一讨论一下不同的方面。

So let's go over the different things.

如果我们撤出，他们会宣布胜利，伊斯兰革命卫队会重新崛起。

If if we pull out, they'll declare victory, the IRGC will rebuild itself.

他们会加强内部镇压，这将给大多数民众带来巨大痛苦。

It will stiffen its repression internally, which will really cause great anguish for most of the population.

那就是他们的做法。

That's them.

以色列人，汤姆的观点是，他们想要一个失败的国家，因为你可以看到他们的利益与美国并不一致。

Israelis, Tom's point, they want a failed state because, again, you can see their interest diverging from The United States.

而要赢得这场博弈，不幸的是，作为一名资产管理者或研究过这些问题的人，我看不出我们能以我们希望的方式赢得这场博弈，帕特里克。

And for us to win this thing, and unfortunately right now as a money manager or somebody that studied this stuff, I don't see us winning this thing the way we would like to win it, Patrick.

但如果最理想的情况是，他们政权垮台，新政府成立，向西方靠拢，并与海湾国家更加一致，那么就会形成一种全新的格局。

But if the the optimal Elysium field winning, they topple, a new government is formed that is moving towards the West and is more aligned with the golf nations, And you have this whole brand new configuration.

然后这场峰会就会变得非常有意思，因为特朗普进去后会说：别再搞稀土矿物那一套了。

And then this summit meeting, becomes very interesting because Trump goes in and says, knock it off with the rare earth minerals.

习近平主席，我会向您提供您所需的所有石油，不仅来自委内瑞拉，也不仅来自伊朗——这正是您目前获取石油的地方。

President Xi, I'm gonna send you as much oil as you need, not just from Venezuela and not just from, Iran, which is where you've been getting it now.

我会从世界各地向您供应石油。

I'm gonna send it from everywhere.

您的油价会更低，但我需要稀土矿物，我们会彼此竞争，我会对您加征关税，您也会对我加征关税，但即便我们的制度不同，我们仍必须在地球上共存。

You're going to have lower prices, but I need the rare earth minerals and we're going to compete with each other and I'm going to tariff you, you're going to tariff me, but we have to stay in cohabitation on planet Earth, even though we have different systems.

所以，这对我来说就是希望。

So that's the hope for me.

但我认为最可能的结果是：政权彻底衰败，美国人撤出，油价下跌，正如我们之前在节目中所说，以色列人则在一旁暗自恼怒，心想：好吧，我们得换种方式了。

But I think the most likely outcome is that the regime is completely degraded, the Americans pull out, oil prices go down, as we said earlier in the show, and the Israelis are sitting there simmering, saying to themselves, okay, we're gonna have to do this another way.

我的意思是，他们终究得想办法找到铀矿，因为你知道，这些人一心想要毁灭以色列。

I mean, we they're gonna have to you know, they're gonna someone's gonna have to find that uranium because, you know, these people are fixated on destroying Israel.

他们已经反复这样说了，我想把这个问题提给在座的每一位嘉宾，也提给您，我们的主持人。

And they've been saying it repeatedly, and I'll put it to everybody on this panel and you as our host.

如果您是以色列总理，帕特里克，您别无选择，必须坚持下去，因为您必须保护

If you were the prime minister of Israel, you would have no choice to stay on this, Patrick, because you have to protect

是的，我同意他们的观点。

Is that is I I agree for them.

对我来说，问题是，在你看来，伊朗的胜利是否等同于他们只是维持政权？

The the question for me is, you know, in your eyes, is the victory for Iran the same as Tom's of them just staying in power?

那也是一回事。

Same same thing there.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但我只是想补充一点汤姆所说的内容。

But I think but again, I was just adding some flavor to what Tom is saying.

没错。

Right.

他们将会变得更加强硬。

They're gonna they're gonna stiffen.

你知道，他们会严重打击民众。

You know, they're gonna put a big hurt on their public.

这对他们的民众来说可能会更糟。

This can be worse for their public.

首先，它将使国家变得更加贫穷。

First of it's gonna be a way poorer nation.

它将更加孤立。

It's gonna be more isolated.

为了维持权力，他们必须更加严厉地镇压本国人民。

And in order to stay in power, they're gonna have to repress their their public population way more.

是的。

Yeah.

对于了解历史的人来说，他们必须这么做，这就是波尔布特的手段。

They they have to for people who know history, it's the Pol Pot move.

波尔布特非常残暴。

Pol Pot was brutal.

但当烟雾散去，他上台后，你猜发生了什么？

But once the smoke cleared and he was up, then guess what happened?

那就是大屠杀场的由来。

That's where you get the killing fields.

他把所有人，每个公民都拉出去了。

He just took everybody out, every citizen.

这比卡斯特罗还要恶劣。

This is worse than Castro.

卡斯特罗只清除医生、律师和一些人。

Castro took out doctors and lawyers and people.

记得卡斯特罗就是这么做的。

Remember Castro did it.

所以别提波尔布特了。

So never mind pole pot.

我们就只看卡斯特罗吧。

Let's just look at Castro.

他对受过教育的人、那些在场的人所做的一切，真是惨不忍睹。

What he did to the educated, to the people that were there, It was miserable.

卡斯特罗在那三年里做的事，真让我想不通，自由派的人怎么会对他有正面看法。

And what Castro did in those those three years, you know, how anybody on the liberal side has ever seen him in a positive light is odd to me.

但你将得到的正是他所说的，而我们已经亲眼目睹了。

But that's what you're going to get exactly what what he said and we've seen it.

我们已经见识过波尔布特。

We've seen Pol Pot.

我们已经见识过卡斯特罗。

We've seen Castro.

战争结束了。

The war is over.

西方退缩了。

The West backs off.

想想伊朗人。

Think the Iranians.

平民被屠杀。

The citizens get slaughtered.

我认为，如果伊朗革命卫队幸存下来，那些抗议它的伊朗人民将会遭遇不幸。

I think if they serve if Iran IRGC survives, the Iranian people who protested against it.

天哪。

Oh my God.

他们将经历地狱般的苦难，因为猜猜看，他们官方上并不拥有什么。

They're gonna experience hell in ways that because guess what they officially don't have.

谁会正式支持他们呢？

Who officially has their back?

没人。

Nobody.

没人。

Nobody.

他们将会面临困境，但也有希望。

They're gonna be, there's good.