特朗普延长伊朗最后期限+核自杀背心？与肖恩·汉尼蒂对话 | PBD 第766期

我这周可不进化。

I'm not evolving this week.

你们先走吧，别管我。

You guys go on without me.

不行。

No.

你不可能看着造物，却除了智能设计之外还持有其他观点。

You can't look at creation and have anything but just a intelligent design point of view.

即使你不将其与任何信仰联系起来，只要环顾四周，也会问：这一切是怎么来的？

Even if you don't root it in any faith, you just look around and say, how did this all get here?

我们怎么就在这颗旋转的岩石上，围绕着这个巨大的火球运转，而且还井然有序？

And how are we on the spinning rock circling this big ball of fire and with order to it?

但这一切确实有一种秩序感。

But there is a sense of order to it.

所以我认为，当你看到造物的秩序与多样性时，任何公正的人不可能不承认：我不知道那是什么，我也还没准备好接受你的宗教。

So I think when you look at the order and diversity of creation, I don't think any fair minded person can say anything other than, Well, I don't know what it is, and I'm not ready to get with your religion.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

外面真的有东西。

Something's out there.

但很多这样的人确实如此，我认为很多无神论者之类的人都是这样。

But a lot of those people do so I think a lot of them that are the atheists and stuff.

一旦接受这一点，你就得为自己的行为负责，这非常困难。

It's very hard to once accept that because then you have to be accountable for your actions.

你的行为确实会有后果。

You actually have to have there's a consequence to your actions.

我读过一本书，是帕特推荐给我的，叫《基督真相》，作者是李·斯特罗贝尔。

And a lot of these people I I read a book that Pat told me, A Case for Christ by Lee Strobel.

无神论者，妻子是基督徒。

Atheist, wife, Christian.

他当时说：‘我要证明你错了，亲爱的。’

He went he's like, I'm gonna prove I'm gonna prove you wrong, honey.

他出去找了神学家、各路人士，为基督、秩序、上帝和这个故事建立了真实的论据。

Went out, talked to theologians, everybody, and he made an actual case for Christ and the order and God and the story.

我最近正在读《圣经》旧约中的《以赛亚书》。

And I was just reading in in Isaiah in the bible, Old Testament.

塞恩，他早在几百年前就预言了耶稣基督将为我们的罪而死，并且会被钉在十字架上。

Sean, he's explaining Jesus Christ hundreds of years later that he was gonna die for our sins and he was gonna be, you know, crucified.

这可不是胡言乱语。

It's not this isn't mumbo jumbo.

这是接受它、相信它，并践行它。

It's accepting it and believing it and walking it.

你知道这有多难吗？

It's you know how hard it is?

如果你以前像我一样，整天派对、喝酒、追女孩，现在要彻底停下这一切，然后说：我全心全意投入了。

If you're partying and drinking and doing the girls and everything that I used to do, to to stop all that to stop all that and be like, I'm all in.

因为基督教不是那种你可以随便应付的 sideline sport，好像说‘是的’就行。

Because there's no Christianity isn't like a sideline sport where you're like, yeah.

我会先试试水，但还是会出去喝酒、吸可卡因，你必须全身心投入。

I'm gonna dip my feet in, but I'm gonna go out and drink and do cocaine, and you gotta go all in.

我觉得很多这样的人，肖恩，很难说：我有这么多钱，这么多女孩。

And I think a lot of those people, Sean, it's hard to be like, I have all this money and all this all the girls.

我不愿意放弃这一切。

And I don't wanna give it up.

什么？

What?

然后还被人评判。

And then have somebody judge me.

他们不喜欢这样。

They don't like that.

但我只想说一点。

But I'll just say this.

你知道，如果你不相信更高的力量，总会有别的东西来填补这个空缺。

You know, if you don't have a belief in a higher power, something else is gonna fill that space.

所以我经历过一段人生时期，那时我不确定。

So I went through, sort of the, a time in my life where I was I wasn't sure.

我质疑一切，我觉得我当时想，我要做个不可知论者。

I was questioning everything, and I I think I was like, I I'm gonna be agnostic.

我不知道你是否也不知道。

I don't know if you don't know.

当你开始质疑上帝，并观察美国正在发生的事情时，会发生什么。

And what what happens is you start to question God and look at what's going on in America.

这里缺乏信仰，缺乏社区，缺乏家庭，缺乏价值观。

There's a lot lack of faith, lack of community, a lack of family, lack lack of values.

总有什么会填补这个空缺，无论是觉醒主义，还是跨性别主义，或者任何取代更高力量的‘主义’。

Something's gonna fill the space, whether it's wokeism, whether it's transgenderism, whether it's, you know, any any ism that just takes the place of a higher power.

所以对我来说，一切都非黑即白。

So everything is binary to me.

你知道吗？

You know?

正如我所说，我提供这个选择，哦，你可能会批评特朗普。

Like I said, I give the the option, oh, you might criticize Trump.

你想要卡玛拉吗？

You want Kamala?

所以，如果你不再相信那位在天上的主宰，总会有别的东西来填补这个空缺。

So if you stop believing in in in the man upstairs, something's gonna fill the space.

相信我，那东西绝不会像上帝那样高尚。

And believe me, it's not gonna be as virtuous and as God.

关于托马斯所说的话，其深刻和深远的程度，我认为人类并不具备完全理解它的能力，而这正造就了神秘感。

To something Thomas said, as profound and deep, the magnitude of it all, I don't think we as human beings are designed to fully grasp it, and then it creates the mystery.

我相信那些奠定这个国家基础的犹太-基督教原则，圣经中有些内容确实让人深思、令人感慨、带来希望。

Then, like I believe in Judeo Christian principles that founded this country, and there's certain things in the Bible that just make you wonder, ponder, give you hope.

眼睛未曾看见，耳朵未曾听见，人心也未曾想到，上帝为那些热爱真理的人预备了什么。

The eye has not seen, the ear has not heard, nor has it entered into the hearts of man what God has in store for those that love the truth.

是的。

Mhmm.

这不是很疯狂吗？

Isn't that crazy?

你知道吗，耶稣在十字架上说：今天你就要与我同在乐园里。

You know, Jesus on the cross saying, this day you will be with me in paradise.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，深邃啊，连你头上的每一根头发，包括我头上的白发。

I mean, deep, the very hairs of your head, even the white ones on my head.

一头秀发。

Head of hair.

都被数过。

Counted.

一头浓密的头发。

Great head of hair.

我的意思是，这真的很深刻，很深远。

I mean, it's it's pretty deep, profound.

然后你会听到许多关于死后生命的传说。

And then you hear all the stories of the the life after life.

你读过那些书吗？

Have you read all those books?

我没读过。

I haven't.

你读过其中任何一本吗？

Have you read any of those?

是的。

Yep.

你知道，这太惊人了。

You know, and it's amazing.

你想想，一群从未谋面的人，却都讲述着相似的经历，对吧？

You take a bunch of people that have never met each other that talk all talk about this this experience, right?

听到已故亲人，还有那种白色的隧道。

Hearing loved ones and a, you know, some some sort of white tunnel.

然后你把这些素未谋面的人分散在各地，不管是哪里的人。

And you take all these people who don't know each other over here, over here, over here, over here.

可他们最后讲述的亲身经历，却基本一模一样。

And they all they're all coming back with the same relative story.

这是为什么呢？

Why is that?

这是为什么呢？

Why is that?

而我认为这是因为他们得以瞥见那些画面，都是上帝允许他们看到的内容，

And I think it's because they're given glimpses as much as as far as God wants to allow you to get a glimpse.

对吧？

Right?

因为这本身也是基于信仰的，

Because it's also it's also a faith based.

而且你想，如果他把所有问题的答案都直接给你

And you know, if he gives you the answer to the whole

这种情况下，你还需要信仰吗？

thing, do you need faith anymore?

因为有两本很精彩的书，《天堂九十分钟》。

It's because there's two cool books, ninety minutes in heaven.

我读过那本书。

I read that book.

天堂是真实的。

Heaven is real.

那本书也被拍成了电影。

That was also turned into a movie.

我也喜欢那部电影，它其实可以和我们第一个话题联系起来。

I like that too, which actually can dovetail into our first topic.

那就是行动的整个前提。

And that is the whole premise of operation.

首先，午夜锤子，你知道，伊朗人是邪恶的，他们高喊‘死亡给美国’，高喊‘死亡给以色列’，他们一直是头号恐怖主义支持国，对我来说，他们是生存威胁。

Well, first Midnight Hammer, you know, that the Iranians are evil, that they chant death to America, they chant death to Israel, they have been the number one state sponsor of terror, they are, to me, an existential threat.

我甚至没耐心去和那些在当下这个时代都认不清邪恶的蠢人打交道。

I don't even have the patience to deal with stupid people that don't understand evil in our time.

而且我认为，我看到特朗普总统汲取了三条历史经验，我非常希望你们三位都能就此谈谈看法。

And I think, I see President Trump as learning three historical lessons, and I'd love for all three of you to weigh in on this.

第一条，他从里根那里学到了“以实力求和平”的理念。

One, he learned from Reagan Peace through strength.

第二条，他从过去一百年的人类历史中总结出了邪恶的存在，那些例子包括中国的毛泽东、苏联的斯大林、德国的希特勒、意大利的墨索里尼及其法西斯主义，还有日本的东条英机，统统都能归入邪恶的范畴。

Two, he learned the last hundred years of human history, which proved that there was evil, and that's Mao in China, Stalin in Russia, that's Hitler in Germany, that's Mussolini and fascism, that's Tojo, Japan, that would pot.

还有那片死亡屠宰场。

Include the killing fields.

对不对？

Right?

托马斯，已经有超过一亿条生命逝去了。

And over a 100,000,000 souls, Thomas, dead.

没错。

Mhmm.

他们已经消失了。

They're gone.

我认为他学到的第三个教训是：不要陷入泥潭。

And the third lesson I think he learned is no quagmires.

我们不能让我们的国家宝贵资源长期置身于这些冲突的地面战场。

What we can't send our national treasure on the ground for extended periods of time, you know, in these conflicts.

借助下一代武器，现在这是可能的。

And with military with the next generation of weaponry, it's now possible.

但这里的前提是，托马斯，我想问你这个问题。

But the premise here is, Thomas, I'll ask you this.

这个政权是邪恶的。

This regime is evil.

我永远无法说服那些不相信这一点的人，但我相信他们是邪恶的。

I'm never gonna convince those that don't believe that, but I believe they are.

特朗普总统足够聪明，将这一威胁从我们的孩子和子孙手中消除。

And president Trump was smart enough to take this threat away from our children and grandchildren.

有什么想法？

Thoughts?

是的。

Yeah.

某种程度上说，你知道，我没投票支持新的战争。

Somewhere between, you know, I didn't vote for new wars.

好吧。

Okay.

你不必投票支持新的战争。

You don't have to vote for new wars.

没人投票支持疾病，你知道的。

Nobody nobody voted for, you know, disease either.

对吧？

Right?

生活中总会发生一些事情。

And things happen in life.

这是必要的。

This was necessary.

我认为每个人都已经受到了问责。

I think everybody has been called to account.

所有那些想要否认你刚才所说的一切的人，而那些话都是完全正确的。

All the people that want to deny all the things you just said, which are all very, very correct.

当他们发射一枚现在能飞行4000英里的火箭时，你只需问问自己：好吧，他们会在火箭顶部放什么？

When they launch a rocket that is now capable of going 4,000 miles, you just ask yourself, okay, what do they put on top of that rocket?

他们究竟会把东西瞄准谁？

And who who exactly are they going to put it on?

一旦他们拥有了这种能力，你就不得不持续地应对他们。

And once they they have that, you know, now you're going to have to constantly manage them.

这就是当初没人认真对待朝鲜时发生的情况。

This is what happened when nobody took North Korea seriously.

而日本就在那里，你知道，他们又发射了一枚火箭。

And Japan sitting there, you know, they launched another rocket.

现在距离更近了一点。

It's a little bit closer now.

他们以前在海洋上空试射没有核弹头的导弹，以此表明：我们变得越来越好，射程越来越远，精度也越来越高。

And they were dropping them in the ocean without warheads, showing that, hey, we're getting better and better and longer and more precise.

突然间，天哪，他们也提纯了铀。

And all of a sudden, oh, damn, they've enriched uranium too.

所以现在，朝鲜不仅拥有核能力，还研制出了火箭，并且不断研发、改进，积累了实现这一目标的技术。

So now not only do they have, you know, nuclear capability in North Korea, now they have built a rocket, and they built and built and built and built with the technology to get there.

于是你只能坐在那里说：好吧。

So you sit there and say, okay.

朝鲜是可以被管控的。

North Korea can be managed.

就连金正日，金正日的儿子，也都是可以管控的。

You he could be managed even a Kim Young Il, Kim Young's son.

那些人至少还是可以管控的。

Those guys were at least manageable.

你明白我的意思吗，肖恩？

You know what I mean, Sean?

你到了这个政权，它是不可管理的。

You get to this regime, it's not manageable.

朝鲜不会说，嘿，打倒美国，我愿意为此赴死。

North Korea doesn't say, you know, hey, death to America, and I'm willing to die for it.

我们都会为此赴死。

We're all going to die for it.

我们会组建自杀小队之类的。

We're going to set up suicide squads and all that.

不。

No.

北卡罗来纳州是疯狂的，但他们并不是那种陷入狂热信仰、认为最终结果就是死亡、死亡、死亡、死亡的疯狂，你根本无法与之谈判。

North Carolina is insane, but they're not insane on like, you know, an embroiled faith that every that the the end result is death, death, death, death, It's like you can't negotiate with it.

你看看这种情况，你就不能让它具备这种能力。

And you look at it, so you can't let it be capable.

人们说，不行。

And people say, no.

不要新的战争。

No new wars.

你不该这么做。

You shouldn't have done this.

我不想要新的战争。

I don't want new wars.

我不希望这2000亿美元被用在这里，而应该用在其他地方。

I don't want $200,000,000,000 that needs to go for other things to go for this.

我和任何人一样都是美国人。

I'm as American as anybody else.

我不想要那样。

I don't want that.

我说过，但当你看看那里正在发生的事，看到火箭后，就会说：好吧，明白了。

I said, but when you look at what's going on there, now you see the rocket and say, okay, Alright.

你们所有在伦敦示威的人，有没有注意到，如果从迪戈加西亚画一条线，这条线会直接到达伦敦。

All you people demonstrating in London, do do you see that that if you draw a line from Diego Garcia, oh, that same line would reach London.

你怎么睡得着？

How do you sleep?

是的。

Yeah.

当他们现在告诉你，他们想做这个、想做那个的时候。

And when they tell you now they want to do this and now they want to do that.

等等。

Wait.

当他们告诉你，他们不喜欢你在英国打击性侵团伙，或者我们要轰炸你时，你会怎么做？

What do you do when they tell you they don't like that you're persecuting rape gangs in in The UK or we're we're going to bomb you?

那时你会怎么说？

What do you say then?

当那个霸凌者全副武装，拥有投放炸弹的能力时，你会怎么说？

What do you say when the bully is fully armed with the ability to deliver the bomb and the bomb.

我认为特朗普已经学会了这一切。

And I think Trump has learned all this.

我承受了很大的压力。

I take a lot of heat.

他们说，哦，没有新的战争，你只是个傻瓜。

They say, oh, well, there's no new wars, you're just you're just a simp form.

不，不，不。

No, no, no.

我不是。

I'm not.

你知道，我的总统并不完美。

You know, my president is not perfect.

但我认为这一次我们做对了。

But I think that this one we got right.

我们希望事情能像马杜罗那样简单又迅速吗？

Do we wish that it was easy and as quick as Maduro?

当然我们希望如此。

Sure we do.

当然我们希望如此。

Sure we do.

但这并不意味着没有人挺身而出，没有人把局势拉回来。

But it doesn't mean that somebody's got to stand up for this and somebody's got to pull it back.

让我问你一个问题。

Let me ask you.

让我进一步说明，因为很多人不理解特朗普主义。

Let me follow-up Because I think that a lot of people don't get the Trump doctrine.

是的，这不是永久战争，但这并不意味着我们不会使用美国军队的力量。

Yes, it's no forever wars, but that doesn't mean that we're not gonna use might and power of the US military.

让我们回到之前的话题。

Let's go back.

他消灭了ISIS，击毙了苏莱曼尼和巴格达迪，对阿富汗投下了‘炸弹之母’，‘午夜锤’14枚穿地炸弹摧毁了他们浓缩铀的能力。

He wiped out ISIS, he took out Soleimani, Baghdadi, dropped the mother of all bombs on Afghanistan, and Midnight Hammer, 14 bunker buster bombs knocked out their ability to enrich uranium.

所以这并不是一场永久战争，但从长远安全角度来看，这是战略上明智的。

So that is not it's not a forever war, but it is strategically smart for our long term security.

我同意这一点。

I I I agree with that.

而且，我意识到很多事情可以同时存在。

And, like, I realized multiple things can exist at the same time.

这个政权，邪恶的，100%。

The regime, evil, 1000%.

我们在播客开始前就讨论过这个。

We spoke about this before the podcast started.

如果有人用枪指着你，而且，Sean，你代表的是伊朗人民。

If somebody had a gun to your head and and the and the people Sean, you're gonna represent the Iranian people.

如果有人用枪指着你，打算杀了你，你还会在乎是谁杀了那个持枪者吗？

If somebody has a gun to your head and they're and they're gonna kill you, do you care who kills the the the the gunman?

你会在乎他是犹太人、基督徒、美国人、高个子、矮个子，还是跨性别者吗？

Do you care if they're Jewish, Christian, America, tall, short, transgender?

我不在乎。

I don't care.

我想让你帮我杀死那个把枪指着我头的人。

I want you to help me kill the person that has a gun to my head.

伊朗人民需要这个。

The Iranian people need this.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是存在的。

That exists.

美国、以色列以及所有这些涉及的国家，他们有自己的议程吗？

Does America and Israel and all these different people that are involved, they have their own agendas?

当然。

Absolutely.

当然。

Absolutely.

我认为，肖恩，人们会感到警惕的一点是，首先，对政府的信任已降至历史最低点。

I think the one thing, Sean, which people are gonna be wary of is, number one, the trust in the government has been at an all time low.

当他们看到战争时，比如我在9·11事件后去伊拉克，当时他们关于大规模杀伤性武器撒了谎。

When they see wars, like when I was in during after nine eleven, we went to Iraq, when they were lied to about weapons of mass destruction.

他们每天都在撒谎。

They lied every day.

大规模杀伤性武器。

Weapons of mass destruction.

结果我们到了那里，却根本没有大规模杀伤性武器。

Then we showed up, and there was no weapons weapons of mass destruction.

这就是我离开军队的原因之一。

That's one of reasons I left the military.

我们当时惊呆了。

We're like, woah.

天啊。

Woah.

哇哦。

Woah.

你们说谎了，说他们拥有大规模杀伤性武器？

You guys lied about the the they had these weapons of mass destruction?

上百万人丧生。

A million people are dead.

数千名美国士兵阵亡。

Thousands of American soldiers are dead.

这个谎言是什么？

What would the lie?

所以我能理解人们的怀疑和那种警觉：等等。

So I can see the the skepticism of people and the weariness of, wait a minute.

我们以前听过这种说法。

We've heard this before.

我们以前见过这种情况。

We've seen it before.

但另一方面，肖恩，我得到处跑。

But on the twist side of this, Sean, I'm gonna I I have to go everywhere.

我信任特朗普总统。

I trust president Trump.

就我个人而言，我有大量片段，显示他八十年代时多么热爱美国。

Me, personally, I have clip after clip of eighties night he loves America.

他总是说中国各种坏话。

He always talked crap about about China.

他一直以美国为重，而我也不自觉地被这种情绪影响了，肖恩。

He's always been about America, and I fall victim to this, Sean.

我们总是讨论，是谁在说这个，是谁在说那个？

We all we do, like, we talked about, who's saying this and who's saying that?

我们就在那些会议里。

Like, we're in those meetings.

我们就在情况室里。

Like, we're in the situation room.

我不是。

I'm not.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我没有在棋盘上观察。

I'm not in the chessboard looking.

他们在。

They are.

我信任他。

I trust him.

他热爱自己的国家。

He loves his country.

最后，肖恩，我们必须等待。

And at the end of this, Sean, we have to wait.

我们已经进行了多少周了？

We're how many weeks into it?

我认为他们说我们还剩几周时间。

I think they say that we have a couple weeks left.

让他们像对待关税一样，看看他们会怎么做。

Let them just like with the tariffs, let's see what they have to do.

我不能操之过急，说这一定是那样或这样。

I can't jump the gun and be like, oh, it's this or that.

给他一些时间。

Give him some time.

几个月前我就说过这一点。

I said this a couple of months ago.

让他放手去处理关税问题。

Let him cook with the tariffs.

他在最高法院突然切断他的后路之前，做得非常出色。

He did a fantastic job until the supreme court freaking cut his legs off from underneath him.

给他们一些时间，但我们必须明白，在军事和政府方面，信任是非常重要的。

Give them time, but we have to understand that there are a lot of trust when it comes to military and government.

你必须理解美国人民的一些疲惫感。

You have to understand a little bit of the the weariness of the American people.

是的。

Yeah.

我不想把这件事复杂化。

I don't wanna overcomplicate this.

所以对我来说，归根结底就一件事。

So to me, it's it comes down to this one thing.

你该和恐怖分子谈判多久？

How long do you negotiate with terrorists?

我们已经和这个恐怖政权谈判了四十七年，而特朗普，不管你喜欢还是不喜欢他，都有胆量说：不，不行。

We've been negotiating with this terror regime for forty seven years, and Trump, love them or dislike them, had the balls to be like, nope.

我们和这些人到此为止。

We're done with these people.

因为你要到什么时候才意识到，谈判只是变成了常态？

Because if you at what point does negotiation just become normal?

对。

Yeah.

可我们在过去五十年里一直都在和他们谈判。

We're just negotiating again for the last five decades.

那要是你一直谈判，可他们的所作所为却丝毫没有改变，接下来又该怎么办呢？

So and then what happens when you're negotiating and their behavior doesn't change?

那难道不应该为他们的恶劣行径承担相应的后果吗？

So do you need to have some accountability for your bad behavior?

所以这种没完没了的谈判，只会落得‘哦，我们做成了这个’的结果，

So this endless negotiation, oh, we did this.

我们做成了这个，

We did this.

我们签了伊朗核协议。

We did the Iran deal.

国会跨党派联盟不会做这种事，但对方的行为根本没改过。

The JCPA are not gonna do this, but their behavior hasn't changed.

他们仍在资助代理人。

They're still funding proxies.

他们仍在大声喊叫‘打倒美国’。

They're still basically shouting death to America.

而特朗普，他不玩这个游戏。

And Trump, he's not playing that game.

所以还有两点。

So two more points.

特朗普是交易的艺术。

Trump's the art of the deal.

你知道，我重新读了《交易的艺术》。

You know, I reread the art of the deal.

你评价的最重要教训之一是创造杠杆并以实力进行谈判。

Some of the biggest lessons you rate was create leverage and negotiate through strength.

特朗普创造了杠杆，摧毁了他们一半的军事能力，你知道的，大约80%。

Trump created leverage, took out half, you know, 80% of their military capabilities.

他是在以实力进行谈判。

He's negotiating through strength.

他除掉了他们多少名高层领导人？

He took out how many of their top leaders.

所以，我认为你提到了‘以实力求和平’。

So what what I think is you brought up peace through strength.

我认为，我要明确指出，我们需要重新定义‘以实力求和平’这个说法。

I think, and I'm gonna own this, I think we need to rephrase peace through strength.

我认为我们应该开始称之为‘以实力求稳定’，因为世界永远不会实现世界和平。

I think we need to start calling it stability through strength because the world's never gonna have world peace.

我们四处打仗，以为这样就能带来和平。

And we're running around fighting wars thinking that we're gonna have peace.

我们真正要解决的是稳定。

What we're solving for is stability.

那么，什么是稳定？

So what's stability?

稳定需要被强制维护。

Stability needs to be enforced.

对吧？

Right?

如果你对不良行为没有后果，那会发生什么？

And if you don't have consequences to your bad actions, then what happens?

所以在我看来，特朗普在全球范围内正在做什么？

So to me, Trump is running around the world doing what?

终结对美国敌对的政权，创造稳定。

Ending hostile regimes to America, creating stability.

现在委内瑞拉有稳定了吗？

Do we have stability with Venezuela now?

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我们是否可能在古巴看到稳定？

Are we potentially looking at stability with Cuba?

我觉得接下来就会实现了。

I think that's next.

我们是否也在努力为俄罗斯和乌克兰地区创造稳定？

Are we trying to have stability with Russia and Ukraine?

这还有待观察。

Remains to be seen.

特朗普正是在通过实力来实现他所说的稳定。

Trump is doing his stability through strength

伊朗的那套口号。

mantra in Iran.

那你是想取代里根？

So you wanna replace Reagan?

我，不是的。

I No.

里根永远都不会被任何人取代。

No one's gonna replace Reagan ever.

但我可以问你一个问题吗？

But can I ask you question?

这只是稍微更新了一下。

It's just sort of updated.

不过我想问你一个问题。

I wanna ask you a question, though.

所以，肖恩。

So, Sean

我有个问题，

I have a question,

老兄。

man.

说吧。

Go.

请说。

Please.

说吧。

Go ahead.

是的。

Yeah.

你的重点是什么？

What's your point?

你说到点子上了，肖恩。

You got me, Sean.

太完美了。

So Perfect.

这正是我们正在

That's what we're

这正是我们正在做的。

that's what we're doing.

不同的主持人。

Different host.

谢谢。

Thank you.

同一句话。

Same line.

她去哪儿

Where did

今天了？

she go today?

时机太完美了。

Perfect timing.

但让我问一下，阿尔，我想问你个问题。

But let me but, Al, let me ask you a question.

还有，肖恩，我想问问你们所有人。

And and, Sean, you guys I wanna ask all of you guys.

当中午锤子是第一次任务时，我们只是设身处地地想一想

When midnight hammer was the first mission, we like, just put yourself in

那个

the

美国公众的眼中。

American public's eye.

我们进去了。

We went in.

我们阻止了他们的核能力。

We stopped their nuclear capabilities.

我们没事。

We okay.

就这样了。

That was it.

干净利落，来去迅速，完成了。

It was clean, in and out, done.

你至少得看看那些普通的美国普通人，他们去上班时会想：等等。

You have to at least see the like, the regular average Joe American that's going to work going, wait.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

你们说我们去年夏天就解决了这个问题。

You guys said we knocked that out last during the summer.

现在有什么变化？

Now what changed?

现在他们并没有把他转移到其他地方，因为归根结底，肖恩，我和我知道很多人都很不满。

Now they haven't retreated him somewhere else because at the end of the day, Sean, this is where I and I I know people are upset.

这件事被宣传成我们是为了伊朗人民而做的。

This was sold as we're doing it for the Iranian people.

我真的很设身处地为他们着想，因为我认识一些来自伊朗的人，还有你见过的那位来自伊朗的妈妈。

Like and I'm really putting myself there because I know people from Iran and mom who's sitting there, Sean, that you met, she's from Iran.

那些在街头抗争、本可能被屠杀的人，特朗普曾说：‘去吧，去抗争，动手吧。’

They all the people that would have been massacred in the streets that were fighting, that Trump said, guys, go and fight and do it.

我爱他们这一点，愿上帝安息他们所有的灵魂。

And and I love them for that, and god rest all their souls.

上周他们绞死了一位摔跤手，只因他抗议并做了他该做的事，愿上帝保佑他。

A a wrestler they hanged last week for for freaking protesting and doing what he was doing, and god bless him for doing it.

你需要理解，亚当，人们的想法是：好吧。

I like, you have to understand, Adam, the people are like, well, okay.

我们听不到人民的声音，因为他们没有互联网。

We can't we haven't heard from the people because they have no Internet.

现在我们却说，哦，他们拥有铀和其他那些东西。

Now we're saying, oh, they have they have uranium and all that stuff.

你得明白，人们会想：我以为我们在夏天就把那些都清除了。

You have to understand that the people are like, I thought we took all that out in the summer.

因为如果这是为了人民，我却没听到任何声音，因为肖恩，我们是要选一个我们指定的领导人来统治他们吗？

Because if it's for the people, I haven't heard because Sean, are we gonna put in a leader that we're gonna pick that's gonna run them?

你觉得他们的军队会说：哦，你们美国人要扶植这个人上台？

Do you think their military is gonna go, oh, you guys oh, America is putting this guy in?

是的

Yeah.

我们会追随他。

We're gonna follow him.

你知道吗，我觉得这一点非常困难，我认为没人考虑到这一部分。

You understand how difficult I think that I don't think anybody's thinking about that part.

那我来进一步说明。

So let me take it to the next level.

总统将谈判延长了十天。

So the president extended out negotiations for ten more days.

为了

For

对我来说，最具有揭示性、关于迫在眉睫的威胁的采访，是中东特使史蒂夫·惠特科夫。

me, the best interview that was the most revealing in terms of what imminent threat or defining imminent threat.

我采访了中东特使史蒂夫·惠特科夫。

I had the Mideast Envoy, Steve Whitkoff.

他在房间里。

He was in the room.

他与伊朗人进行了谈判。

He negotiated with the Iranians.

我觉得我们有这段录像。

I think we have a clip of it.

我想播放一下。

I wanna play it.

正是在这里，他确认他们拥有460公斤浓度为60%的浓缩铀，这意味着你们可以非常迅速地将其从60%进一步浓缩到90%，达到武器级。

And this is where he affirmed they had 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which means that you could very quickly enrich it from 60 to 90%, which is weapons grade.

这个过程只需要七到十二天的时间。

You can do that in anywhere from seven to twelve days.

这相当于11枚炸弹的当量。

Now, that would be the equivalent of 11 bombs.

托马斯之前提到过，我们现在知道他们的弹道导弹射程远超我们之前的估计。

Thomas mentioned earlier, we now know their ballistic missile capability range is way further than we thought.

顺便问一下，你知道这意味着什么吗？

By the way, you know what that means?

巴黎，伦敦。

Paris, London.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，是一些没人想到他们会有的目标。

You know, targets that nobody thought they would have had.

但让我先播放这段，然后我想问一下，在这之后，如果你听这段时，总统达成协议或不得不离开，那么在我们说任务完成之前，必须完成哪些事情？

But let me play this, and then I wanna ask on the other side of it, as you listen to this, if the president negotiates a deal or if he has to leave, what are the things that must be accomplished before we say mission accomplished?

好的。

Okay.

好吧。

Alright.

这是史蒂夫·维特科夫。

This is Steve Witkoff.

他们声称拥有不可剥夺的 enrichment 权利，对此我们回应称，根据特朗普总统的立场，我们拥有阻止他们 enrichment 的不可剥夺权利。

Up with telling us that they had the inalienable right to enrich, to which we responded that from president Trump that they we had the inalienable right to stop them from enriching.

但他们一直在等待。

So but they wait.

他们首先向我们发起了挑战。

They opened up by challenging us.

他们接下来对我们表示，他们拥有460公斤60%丰度的浓缩铀。

Their next statement to us was that they had 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.

60%丰度的浓缩铀，最多十天就能提升到90%的武器级浓度。

60% enriched uranium would take a week, maybe ten days at the outside to bring up to 90% weapons grade.

这明显是一种威胁。

So it was a clear threat.

他们炫耀自己拥有这种物质，并称这将是非常有价值的东西。

They were boasting about having it, and they said that that was going to be something that was going to be very valuable.

与此同时，他们声称核能仅用于民用目的，但除非是为了制造武器，否则没有任何理由将铀浓缩超过20%。

At the same time that they were attesting to wanting nuclear for civil purposes, there is no reason whatsoever to be enriching past 20% unless you're going for a weapon.

最后，在最初的一次会议上，他们对我们说——这其实是一种挑战：你们不可能通过外交手段获得你们用军事手段也无法取得的东西。

And then finally, and this was all in the beginning this in the beginning meet the beginning meeting, they said to us, and this was some challenge, you're not going to get from us diplomatically what you could not achieve militarily.

是的，我们确实摧毁了他们的三个主要浓缩和转化中心：纳坦兹、伊斯法罕和福特ow。

Now, yes, we had destroyed their three main enrichment and conversion centers, Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordo.

这一点是明确的。

That was clear.

当然，他们并不想承认这一点。

They, of course, didn't want to admit it.

但请想想这种逻辑：在谈判伊始就宣称，我们无法通过外交手段得到的东西，你们也别想从我们这里得到。

But think about the notion of beginning a no negotiation by saying that we would they would we would not be able to get diplomatically what we couldn't achieve militarily.

我们实际上已经用军事手段达成了目标，但他们却基本在说，我们并没有做到，而且他们根本不会给我们。

We did achieve militarily, but they were basically saying that we didn't, and they weren't gonna give it to us anyway.

好的。

Alright.

托马斯，让我用这种方式向你提出这个问题。

Thomas, let me throw that to you with with with the this question framed this way.

现在，他们要么就真的开始谈判。

Now either they're gonna negotiate out.

也许他们学到了一些东西。

Maybe they learned something.

总统在‘午夜重锤’和‘史诗怒火’之前，已经两次恳求他们停战。

They they they the president begged them for peace twice before midnight hammer, before epic fury.

现在他又给了他们另一条生路。

He's now giving them another lifeline.

条件是什么？

What are the conditions?

他们必须保证什么？

What what do they have to guarantee?

不能有核武器。

No nukes.

这些浓缩铀，我们绝不能冒让它落入错误之手的风险。

That enriched uranium, there's no way we can risk that uranium being in the wrong hands.

我们现在得知海军陆战队已经抵达，还有更多人正在前往。

Now we're reading that marines have arrived and more are going.

我不知道该如何解读这一点。

I don't know how to interpret that.

我不确定这是否与卡格里兰有关。

I don't know if that has to do with Cargillan.

我不确定这是否与浓缩铀有关。

I don't know if that has to do with enriched uranium.

我真的不知道。

I I wouldn't know.

但在你心目中，无论是谈判解决还是军事胜利，条件是什么？

But what are the conditions in your head that either a negotiated settlement or a military victory?

需要什么条件？

What would it take?

我认为最终必须通过武力威胁才能达成谈判解决，因为我认为他们只懂这个。

I I think I think it's gonna take a negotiated settlement at the at the end of a barrel of a gun because I think that's all they understand.

所以我认为，军队摧毁了那些被毁的东西，然后说，好吧，现在我们该怎么办？

And so I I think the military destroying the things that are destroyed and then saying, okay, so now are we gonna do this?

如果你看一下那个多点计划，实际上前六七个要点都是关于不发展核武器的。

And if you look at the, you know, the multi point plan, really, like the first six, seven points was all about, you know, no nuclear.

对吧？

Right?

你们交出这些东西。

You give back this stuff.

你们不要进行浓缩。

You don't enrich this.

你们不要做这个。

You don't do this.

你们不要做这个。

You don't do this.

你们不要做这个。

You don't do this.

也许有人需要给我普及一下。

And someone needs to maybe educate me.

也许我漏掉了某个关键点，为什么他们需要高浓缩铀用于工业目的。

Maybe I missed a beat on why they would need, enriched uranium for, industrial purposes.

我不认为他们那边是用核能发电的。

I don't think they run on nuclear power over there.

我非常确定他们拥有充足的化石燃料，足以支撑所有发电厂、海水淡化和他们所需的一切。

I'm pretty sure they have more than enough fossil fuel to run all their power plants and desalination and do everything they need to do.

但第一部分完全是关于核能的。

But the first section was all about nuclear.

第二部分是关于资助所有H组织——胡塞武装、哈马斯、真主党。

The second section was about funding all the Hs, the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah funding them.

第三部分又回到了稳定问题。

Then the third section went back to stability.

所以如果你仔细看，这其实是一个15点计划，但真正核心的诉求只有三个：核问题，以及不资助这些其他组织。

So if you really look at it, it was a 15 plan, but there was really only three asks nukes, no funding these other folks.

然后，你知道的，需要承认现状，并建立某种检查和维和力量之类的。

And then, you know, recognition and create some sort of a inspection and peacekeeping force and whatnot.

就这么多了。

And that's it.

他们说的是，你不可能通过谈判达成，而军事手段你也做不到。

And what they're saying is you're not gonna get through negotiation, which you couldn't get militarily.

你基本上是在告诉我们：好吧，杀了我吧。

You're basically telling us, okay, kill me.

你知道的，好吧，碾过我吧，这太可怕了。

You know, okay, run me over, which is horrifying.

真的吗？

It's like, really?

你知道的？

You know?

还有，该地区的海军陆战队，‘的黎波里号’已经启航了。

And the Marines in the area, the USS Tripoli sailed.

我们两周前就提到过这个事。

We called this two weeks ago.

还记得吗？

Remember that?

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

所以我说，美国号两栖攻击舰‘的黎波里号’，如果你了解军事结构以及这艘船的用途，它搭载着2500名海军陆战队员，F-35战机航母都远远停在别处，由潜艇和极其强大的盟友保护。

So The US Tripoli I said, listen, the only reason The US Tripoli is going there, if you know anything about military structure and what the purpose of that ship is, 2,500 marines, F 35 aircraft carriers stay way over here and they're protected by submarines and very, very strong partnerships.

那你说怎么样？

Well, guess what?

如果你真要进去，就需要‘的黎波里号’或者‘盒马号’。

If you're gonna go in, you need the USS Tripoli or need the USS Boxer.

我认为‘盒马号’是在18号从圣迭戈出发的，搭载了另外一千名海军陆战队员和第11海军远征部队。

And the USS Boxer sailed on the eighteenth, I believe, out of San Diego with another thousand marines and the eleventh Marine Expeditionary Force.

而‘的黎波里号’则搭载着第35海军远征部队和2500名海军陆战队员驶向了那里。

And the Tripoli sailed over there with the thirty fifth Marine Expeditionary Force with 2,500 marines on there.

所以，无论他们是否占领卡格岛，还是其他我念不出名字的地方。

And so whether they take Karg Island or they take, and I don't know, I can't pronounce it.

你能帮我一下。

You can help me.

把Q拿出来。

Have the Q.

不，不，不。

No, no, no.

那个位于海峡钩状区域的岛屿，有一个以Q开头的长条形岛屿。

The, the island that is in the straight in the hook as they call it, there's a long lateral island begins with a Q.

他们说，如果占领了那里，就能消除许多小型火箭对街道的骚扰性袭击，这些袭击是为了阻止船只通行。

And they say, if you take that, it eliminates a lot of these small rockets and the pestering attacks that they fire into the street to stop the ships.

如果你看那里的地图，我不知道那叫什么名字。

If you look at a map there, I don't know what the name is.

总之，关键是需要 USS Tripoli 或 USS Boxer 前往那里。

Anyway, the point is you need the USS triplet or the USS boxer to go ahead.

就在那儿。

There it is.

那是什么？

It what's that?

以Q开头。

Begin with a q.

凯什姆？

Keshem?

凯什姆？

Keshem?

是的。

Yeah.

凯什姆。

Keshem.

那就是

That's

我们要称你为专家。

We're gonna call you a pro.

是的。

Yeah.

把镜头拉远一点。

Zoom back on it.

看到那里了吗？

See that there?

是的。

Yeah.

所以你要拿下那个岛，而这就是军方所说的，拿下凯什姆岛，你必须派地面海军陆战队去执行。

So you take that island, and and this is what, you know, the military is saying, that Keshem, take Keshem Island, and you're gonna have to do that marines on the ground.

我不想看到地面有海军陆战队。

I don't wanna see marines on the ground.

但好吧，你也不想看到它，

But Well, you don't wanna see it,

但他们确实在前进。

but they're but they're going.

他们在前进。

They're going.

他们正在

They're on their they're on

路上。

their way.

但肖恩，让我问你们一个问题。

But Sean, let let me let me ask you guys a question.

当你面对这个政权时，我现在是真心好奇——这个政权杀害自己的人民，殴打女性，把同性恋者从楼顶扔下去。

When you're dealing with the regime, and I'm genuinely being inquisitive right now, you're dealing with the regime that kills its own people, that beats women, throws gays off the building.

他们还在资助代理人和恐怖分子。

They're freaking funding proxies and terrorists.

我不是说我们原则上不该与恐怖分子谈判吗？但我想问一个问题。

I thought we don't negotiate technically with terrorists, but here's my question.

他们终于开始和我们谈判了，他们说，好吧。

They finally we're negotiating with them, they say, okay.

我们不会继续 enrich，我们会停止。

We're not gonna enrich, and we're gonna stop.

我们还要保留阿亚图拉和这些毛拉吗？到底我们要做什么？

Are we still going to leave in the Ayatollahs and these mullahs and every like, the what what are we doing?

因为伊朗政府必须改变。

Because the the it has to be their government has to change.

政权垮台。

Regime collapse.

政权垮台。

The regime collapse.

但是，Sean，我要反复强调这一点。

But I and that's the get Sean, I'm gonna keep going back to it.

我希望他们——虽然没告诉我们，可能得保密——在伊朗秘密组建了一个影子政府。

I hope that they have, without telling us, whatever, they have to keep it secret, a shadow government, so to speak, being formed in Iran.

因为就像我说的，肖恩，你觉得会有80万伊朗士兵，一旦我们实现政权更迭，他们就会心甘情愿地接受美国和以色列扶植的任何人？我不觉得这会发生。

Because like I said, Sean, how can you do you think there are, let's say, what, 800,000 soldiers, Iranian soldiers, once we do a regime change, they're going to just willingly be like, okay, whoever The United States and Israel put in, we're going to I don't see that happening.

所以当你必须考虑的时候，我们真的需要把他们全部清除吗？

So when I you got to take like, do we have to take all of them out?

这是一项疯狂的行动，因为这又是因为——

That's a crazy operation because it's again,

武装民众？什么意思？

what arming What the people?

我和其中一个朋友聊过这个问题，但他跟我说，文尼，你要是开始给每个人发武器——

That's we I had that conversation with one of my friends, but he goes, Vinny, you start giving those just everybody weapons.

他说，那样的话各个派系都会纷纷崛起，人们会说这会变得非常、非常、非常——

He's like, then all the factions are gonna start rising up and people he said it'd be a very, very, very

你知道，但这个——

You know, but but this

这正是让‘史诗狂怒行动’如此具有历史意义的原因。

is what makes, I think, Operation Epic Fury so historical.

我的意思是，从情报和军事角度来看，到目前为止，这次行动的最终结果尚不明确，而且情况会变得更加复杂，我同意托马斯的说法。

I mean, I would argue from an intelligence standpoint, military standpoint, this operation to this point, we don't know the final outcome yet, and it's gonna get complicated, and I agree with what Thomas was saying.

但到目前为止，这是迄今为止战争史上最伟大的军事行动。

But so far, it's the greatest military operation in the history of warfare, as of today.

不过，它最终如何收场，我想回到托马斯刚才说的，听听你的看法，还有亚当，你的想法。

Now, how it concludes, I want to go back to what Thomas was saying, get your thoughts, and Adam, your thoughts.

因为在我看来，不管怎样，某些条件必须得到满足，否则我们绝不能再回到过去。

Because to me, one way or the other, certain conditions have to be met, or we don't ever want to go back.

对吧？

Right?

那这意味着什么？

So what does that mean?

他们不能拥有核武器。

They cannot have nukes.

我们原本没料到他们的弹道导弹射程会达到如此之远。

We didn't expect that their ballistic missiles would be able to have the range that they have.

和往常一样，国际检查人员太差劲了，但他们总算搞定了。

As always, international inspectors suck, and they got it Okay.

但他们不能保留那60%丰度的铀，因为那可以在七到十二天内被转化为武器级材料。

So but they can't keep 60 percent enriched uranium that they can turn into weapons grade in seven to twelve days.

这必须是协议的一部分。

That has to be part of the deal.

海峡必须保持开放。

The straits has to be open.

这也是协议的一部分。

That's part of the deal.

我不太想说另一件事。

I hate to tell you one other thing.

我认识唐纳德·特朗普已经三十多年了。

I've known Donald Trump for thirty some odd years.

除非他们同意偿还我们为解放这个国家、使其摆脱核威胁所花费的全部资金，否则他绝不可能离开那里。

There's no way in hell he's leaving there unless they're agreeing to pay us back for all the money we had to spend to liberate that country from being in a nuclear threat.

你真觉得他会是那种人吗？

You really think he's gonna be that guy?

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

记住，他从委内瑞拉获得了石油。

Remember, he got the oil from Venezuela.

我们推翻了马杜罗。

We took Maduro.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们帮助他们建立了那里的政府架构。

We helped them set up whatever this set up there in terms of government.

然后，当管道完全开通后，首批运出的大量石油——记住，如果你看一张委内瑞拉地图，石油主要集中在中央谷地，这些管道必须把石油输送到港口。

And then the the first so many barrels of oil when they fully open the pipelines, because remember, there if you look at a map of Venezuela, the the oil is like in a Central Valley, and these pipelines have to get it to the ports.

而且管道的运行能力低于正常水平。

And the pipelines are running at lower capacity.

为什么？

Why?

猜猜怎么着？

Well, guess what?

当时有禁运，他们不得不走私原油。

There was embargoes, and they were doing they were having to ship contraband oil.

所以我们到那里时说，好吧，不仅管道重新开通了，而且你们地下产出的是重质原油，需要的是重质原油炼油厂。

So when we got there, we said, okay, not only are the pipelines back open and you guys heavy crude is what comes out of the ground there and heavy crude refineries is what's needed.

还有，你猜怎么着？

Oh, and guess what?

休斯顿和加尔维斯顿建的就是这种设施。

That's what's built in Houston and Galveston.

所以告诉你吧，前五亿美元的原油收入，不管具体是多少，我们都要拿走，用来抵偿你们所做的一切恶劣行径，并支付这些费用。

So tell you what, the first $500,000,000, whatever it is of oil, we're gonna take, and we're gonna take that back for all the crap that you've done and to pay for this.