PBD Podcast - 特朗普解雇诺姆 + 伊朗战争最新动态与激光武器 | PBD 第754期 封面

特朗普解雇诺姆 + 伊朗战争最新动态与激光武器 | PBD 第754期

Trump Fires Noem + Iran War Updates & Laser Weapons | PBD #754

本集简介

帕特里克·贝特-达维德、汤姆·埃尔斯沃思、亚当·索斯尼克和文森特·奥沙纳分析了克里斯蒂·诺姆被解雇为国土安全部部长一事、五角大楼部署先进美国激光武器系统、特朗普与西班牙及北约盟友不断升级的贸易争端,以及伊朗战争中的最新战场和地缘政治动态。 ------ ♟️ 2026年销售领导力峰会:https://bit.ly/45Evtj4 Ⓜ️ 在 MINNECT 上关注我们:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ⓜ️ PBD 播客圈:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 👔 贝特-达维德咨询:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 🥃 董事会雪茄休息室:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 📉 KALSHI 伊朗市场:⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4u0TMlE⁠⁠ 💬 给我们发短信:发送“PODCAST”到 310-340-1132 获取实时最新动态! 关于我们: 帕特里克·贝特-达维德是Valuetainment Media的创始人兼首席执行官,著有《华尔街日报》畅销榜第一名作品《你接下来的五步》(西蒙与舒斯特出版社),育有两子两女,现居佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡。

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

亚当,什么

Adam, what's

Speaker 1

你的意思是?

your point?

Speaker 1

未来前景光明。

The future looks bright.

Speaker 2

一个握手胜过我见过的任何东西。

A handshake is better than anything I ever saw.

Speaker 2

它就

It's

Speaker 3

在这里。

right here.

Speaker 3

你是一个一零一。

You are a one zero one.

Speaker 3

我会发给你

I'll send you

Speaker 4

就在那儿。

right there.

Speaker 4

我不

I don't

Speaker 0

记得我曾经

think I've ever

Speaker 4

说过这话。

said this before.

Speaker 3

第一百萬次了。

For the millionth time.

Speaker 3

亚当已经告诉你二十次了,关掉。

Adam told you 20 times turn off.

Speaker 3

你能去帮他拿一下电话吗?

Can you just grab the phone him?

Speaker 3

不,我只问你这一次。

No, I'm going to ask you one time.

Speaker 3

请把你的手机放在那边。

Put your phone over there, please.

Speaker 3

有人能去拿一下汤姆的手机,放在那边吗?

Can somebody grab Tom's phone and put it over there, please?

Speaker 3

每次做播客,我都得问你和亚当,现在我们就直播了。

Every podcast I have to ask you and Adam just ask you right now, we're live.

Speaker 3

请把手机交给迈克尔,然后放在那边。

Please give the phone to Michael and put it over there.

Speaker 3

谢谢你,迈克尔。

Thank you, Michael.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

好吧。

All right.

Speaker 3

我们直接进入汤姆的话题,

Let's get right into Tom,

Speaker 5

我们仍然

we still

Speaker 6

不过还是很爱你。

love you though.

Speaker 3

每次播客。

Every time podcast.

Speaker 7

告诉他

Told him

Speaker 5

在播客开始前两秒,把手机调成静音。

two seconds before the podcast, turn your phone on silent.

Speaker 5

他说:我明白了。

He goes, I gotcha.

Speaker 3

一切都没有放缓。

Nothing is slowing down.

Speaker 3

昨天进行了很多关于索赔的大型采访。

Was a lot of big interviews done yesterday on claims.

Speaker 3

他们说,如果美国发动攻击,你们会怎么做?

They were saying, what are you going to do if US attacks?

Speaker 3

我们正期待着这一天。

We are looking forward to it.

Speaker 3

我们将播放一些关于那里发生事情的片段。

We're going to play some of these clips of what happens there.

Speaker 3

然后库尔德人介入,传闻美国正在向他们提供武器。

And then the Kurds getting involved, the rumors of US giving them weapons.

Speaker 3

不,五月,我们没有,有一个片段,还有库尔德人和伊朗革命卫队的历史,他们并不喜欢对方。

No, may, we are not, there's a clip and there's a history of Kurds and the IRGC, they're not fans of them.

Speaker 3

他们可能比任何其他势力都更亲美国。

They're probably more pro American than anything else.

Speaker 3

他们介入对伊朗来说,目前可能不是什么好事。

Them getting involved is probably not a good look for Iran right now.

Speaker 3

与此同时,黎巴嫩那边也在发生事情,还有油价问题。

Then you got the Lebanon stuff that's going on at the same time and gas prices.

Speaker 3

罗布,你能帮我个忙,做个投票,看看你那里的汽油价格在过去一周上涨了多少吗?

Rob, can you do me a favor and run a poll to see how much have gas prices in the last week gone up in your area?

Speaker 3

第一个选项,选25到50美分,选没涨,选持平,选25到50美分,50到75美分,75美分到1美元。

First one, put 25 to 50¢, put none, same, put the 25 to 50¢, 50¢ to 75¢, 75¢ to a dollar.

Speaker 3

我们看看结果会怎样,或者75美分以上。

Let's see what comes up or 75¢ plus.

Speaker 3

发个投票吧。

Run the poll.

Speaker 3

我很想知道对你来说情况怎么样。

I'm curious how it's doing to you.

Speaker 3

罗布,你今天早上经历了一些事情。

Know Rob, you experienced something this morning.

Speaker 3

我们来看看市场对此会怎么说。

Let's see what the market's going to be saying about this.

Speaker 3

除此之外,我们还有一些其他事情,就是伊朗可能对霍尔木兹海峡采取的行动。

And then aside from that, we have a few other things that's going on with what the possibilities of Iran could do with straight of Hormuz.

Speaker 3

看起来直到今天那里仍然没有动静。

It looks like there's still no movement going on there till today.

Speaker 3

我们来谈谈目前的汽油和油价吧,汤姆,我相信你有数据,我们来看看最新的情况。

We'll talk about what the gas oil prices are right now, Tom, I'm sure you have the numbers and we'll get the latest there.

Speaker 3

接着是关于Anthropic的新闻,他们提到一个人不愿承认AI可能具有意识,30%的AI是具有意识的,就像一种活体机制。

And then stories coming out with Anthropic talking about the fact that the guy didn't want to address the fact that it may be sentient, 30% AI is sentient, like it's a living mechanism.

Speaker 3

它拥有某种自我特性,这令人担忧,而政府也开始介入。

Like it has a certain things for itself and that's concerning and the government's getting involved.

Speaker 3

然后是克里斯蒂·诺姆,她刚参加了一个播客,那是什么来着?

Then Kristi Noem, who was just on a podcast, what was it?

Speaker 3

大概是一周半前,或者两周前,记不清具体时间了,大概是那个时候。

A week and a half ago, two weeks ago, don't know what it was, something like that.

Speaker 3

紧接着,新闻就出来了,举行了听证会。

And next thing you know, stories came out, there was the hearing.

Speaker 3

听证会刚结束,她就不再拥有之前的工作了。

And then right after the hearing, she no longer has the job that she had.

Speaker 3

这可能是他们宣布的另一个职位。

It may be a different job that they announced.

Speaker 3

我认为他们甚至公布了这个职位可能是特使。

I think they even announced what that job could be an envoy.

Speaker 3

除此之外,我们还需要弄清楚谁将是继任者,马克·韦恩·穆伦是谁。

And aside from that, we have a bunch of other things that we need to get to who the replacement's going to be, who is Mark Wayne Mullen.

Speaker 3

我看到很多头条说,脾气暴躁的马克·韦恩·穆伦将接替克里斯蒂·诺姆。

I see a lot of headlines saying hot headed Mark Wayne Mullen is replacing Kristi Noem.

Speaker 3

你真的想要这样一个人吗?他曾经想和谢恩·奥布莱恩——那位我们曾邀请上过播客的前工会领袖、现任工会主席——发生冲突,很多这类报道正在流传。

Do you want this person who wanted to pick a fight with Sean O'Brien, the former teamster, the current teamster president whom we've had on a podcast, a lot of those stories are circulating.

Speaker 3

但除此之外,米歇尔·奥巴马说,他声称特朗普政府的行为,对于第一个入住白宫的黑人家庭来说是不可接受的。

But aside from that, Michelle Obama said, he claims no way Trump's administration behavior could be acceptable from the first black family in the white house.

Speaker 3

文尼对这件事有些看法。

And Vinny's got some thoughts on that.

Speaker 6

等等,她是在扮演受害者吗?

Wait, she's playing victim?

Speaker 6

这听起来像是在装受害者。

That sounds like victim.

Speaker 3

这并不常见,但偶尔会发生。

It's not common, but every once in a while.

Speaker 6

太奇怪了。

It's so weird.

Speaker 3

贝森说,他们正在将全球关税税率提高到15%。

Bessen says they're raising the global tariff rates to 15%.

Speaker 3

本周,西班牙明确否认了白宫的说法。

This week, Spain categorically denies White House claim.

Speaker 3

它将在伊朗战争问题上进行合作。

It will cooperate on Iran War.

Speaker 3

特朗普告诉我,我们在讨论什么来着,汤姆?

Trump was telling me that we're talking about, what was it, Tom?

Speaker 3

一架飞机

A plane was

Speaker 7

不让我们领空内有武装武器飞行?

not flying over our airspace with armed weapons?

Speaker 3

-没什么。

-Nothing.

Speaker 3

不支持——我们

Not supporting -We're

Speaker 7

不会参与这件事。

not going to be part of this.

Speaker 7

你们不使用我们的领空?

You're not using our airspace?

Speaker 3

去打仗。

To war.

Speaker 3

西班牙首相回击特朗普。

Spain PM hits back at Trump.

Speaker 3

威胁因空军基地争端切断贸易。

Threat to cut trade over airbase dispute.

Speaker 3

我记得他们当时在讨论关税会发生什么变化?

I remember when they were talking about what's going happen with the tariffs?

Speaker 3

他们会把钱退回来吗?

Are they going to give the money back or not?

Speaker 3

什么时候退?

How soon?

Speaker 3

而且这将陷入诉讼,持续两三年甚至四五年。

And it's going be in lawsuits for two, three, four, five years.

Speaker 3

这里有一篇《华尔街日报》的文章给你看。

Well, here's a Wall Street Journal story for you.

Speaker 3

法官下令政府开始退还超过1300亿美元的关税。

Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130,000,000,000 in tariffs.

Speaker 3

这是在‘史诗狂怒’行动中部署的激光武器,太空军成功拦截了伊朗的导弹。

And that's that laser weapons deployed in operation epic fury as space force stops Iran's missiles in their tracks.

Speaker 3

这激光武器是什么?

What's this laser weapons?

Speaker 3

为什么大家都在谈论这个?

Why are people talking about this?

Speaker 3

特朗普有他的想法。

Trump's got thoughts.

Speaker 3

除此之外,如果我们有时间,我们还会聊几件别的事。

And then aside from that, we got a few other things that we'll get into if we have time.

Speaker 3

纽森上了吉米·基梅尔的节目,我相信,如果我没记错的话,他问了他们一个问题:为什么建房子的许可证要花这么长时间才能批下来?

Newsome was on the Jimmy Kimmel show, I And believe, if I'm not on the Jimmy Kimmel show, he asked them questions about why does it take so long to get permits to build a house?

Speaker 3

南希·梅斯点名批评了所有人。

Nancy Mays called out everybody.

Speaker 3

在她点名批评的一部分内容中,这有点奇怪。

And in a part of the call out, this is kind of weird.

Speaker 3

很多人在讨论这件事,我们正在谈的是众议院如何努力阻止公布所有国会性骚扰和性侵报告。

And a lot of people are talking about this is we're talking about how house kills effort to release all congressional sexual misconduct and harassment reports.

Speaker 3

这真够疯狂的,文尼,你听到了吗?

It's pretty wild, Vinny, you hear

Speaker 7

包括用纳税人资金支付的和解案故事。

a Including story about settlements paid with taxpayer dollars.

Speaker 3

这太强烈了。

That's intense.

Speaker 3

当然,我们会讨论这个。

Of course, we're gonna talk about that.

Speaker 3

我知道亚当对此有很多话要说,还要为它辩护。

I know Adam's got a lot of, you know, to say about that and defending.

Speaker 3

所以我们拭目以待。

So we'll see.

Speaker 3

随后,阿塞拜疆因战争蔓延至其边境而对伊朗感到愤怒。

And then, Azerbaijan furious with Iran as war spills over its border.

Speaker 3

话虽如此,各位,你们听说了吗?我认为在特朗普多拉尔正在发生一场重大的领导层变动。

Having said that, gang, you guys heard, I think there's a massive, leadership taking place at the Trump Doral.

Speaker 3

特朗普昨天甚至说:‘去特朗普多拉尔,去特朗普多拉尔。'

Trump even yesterday said, Hey, go to Trump Doral, go to Trump Doral.

Speaker 3

猜猜怎么着?

And guess what?

Speaker 3

我们每年都会在特朗普多拉尔举办年度销售领导力峰会,今年的时间是3月25日至27日。

We're holding our annual sales leadership summit that we do once a year at the Trump Doral, March 25 through the twenty seventh.

Speaker 3

如果你经营着年收入一百万美元以上的企业,并且有五名销售人员,那么当你观看这段视频时,这个活动可能非常适合你。

If you're somebody that runs a business a million dollars or higher and you got five salespeople, this may be the right event for you when you want to watch this video.

Speaker 3

罗布,你请说。

Go ahead, Rob.

Speaker 3

在过去二十年里,我接触过三种不同类型的销售领导者。

There are three different types of sales leaders I've worked with the last twenty years.

Speaker 3

第一种是那种当老板、直接告诉你该做什么的人。

One of them are those that are boss, that are telling you what to do.

Speaker 3

第二种是那种想当朋友的人。

One of them is the one that wants to be a friend.

Speaker 3

他会对你说:嘿,约翰尼,让我帮你达到下一个层次。

He wants to say, hey, Johnny, let me help you get to this next level.

Speaker 3

而另一种是真正的领导者。

And then the other one is the leader.

Speaker 3

这位领导者会与你坐下来,承担责任、提出挑战、激励你、让你相信自己可以做得更多,设定期望,进行业务规划。

The leader that's sitting down with you, accountable, challenge, pushing you, you can do more, expectation, business planning.

Speaker 3

每一种类型都有其优势和盲点。

Each one of them has pros and blind spots.

Speaker 3

在这里,我们举办一场名为销售领导力峰会的活动。

Once here, host an event called the Sales Leadership Summit.

Speaker 3

今年,我们将在美丽的特朗普酒店举办,时间为3月25日至27日,届时我们将讨论这类话题,提供一本200多页的手册,来自世界各地的人们参加,你必须年销售额达到至少一百万美元并拥有五名销售人员才能符合参会资格。

This year, we're doing it at the beautiful Trump throughout March 25 through the twenty seventh, where we talk about topics like this, 200 plus pages in a manual where people from around the world, You have to do a minimum of a million dollars a year and five salespeople to qualify to attend this.

Speaker 3

所以,如果你正在观看这段视频,并认为自己像一个老板、像一个朋友,或者自认为是领导者,想发现自己的盲点的话。

So if you're someone that's watching this and I think I'm like a boss, I think I'm like a friend, I think I'm a leader, I wanna find my blind spots.

Speaker 3

点击下方链接,填写相关信息。

Click on a link below, fill out the information.

Speaker 3

我们的顾问会与你联系。

One of our consultants will get ahold of you.

Speaker 3

真美。

Beautiful.

Speaker 3

点击下面的链接或扫描那个二维码。

Click on the link below or go to that QR code.

Speaker 3

我们讨论了很多不同的内容,有一份200页的手册,详细讲述了我们如何将一家公司从零发展到六万名代理,最终以2.5亿美元出售。

We talk about a lot of different things, 200 page manual on how we took a business from zero to 60,000 agents and eventually sold it for $250,000,000.

Speaker 3

如果你正在管理一个销售团队,并希望找到在2027年之前加速增长的策略,千万不要错过销售领导力峰会。

If you're somebody that's running a business sales team, and you want to find strategies to accelerate your growth going into 2027, do not miss sales leadership summit.

Speaker 3

说了这么多,我们直接开始吧。

With that being said, let's get right into it.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

所以,关于伊朗,目前伊朗发生的一切,罗布,我相信如果我没记错的话,这是一次由你进行的采访。顺便说一下,这是你做的一个民意调查。

So Iran, with everything that's taking place right now with Iran, Rob, I believe if I'm not mistaken, is an interview that's taken Oh, by the way, this is a gas poll that you ran.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

我们先聊聊这个民意调查吧。

Let's talk about the poll first.

Speaker 3

这个地区的汽油价格上涨了多少?

How much have gas prices in the area increased?

Speaker 3

你能再回看一下吗?

Can you go back to it please?

Speaker 3

没有上涨,20%。

None, 20%.

Speaker 3

所以那是五分之一。

So that's a fifth.

Speaker 3

上涨25到50美分,占49%。

25 to 50¢, 49%.

Speaker 3

上涨50美分到75美分,占18%。

50¢ to 75¢, 18%.

Speaker 3

上涨75美分以上,占13%,也就是六分之一。

75¢ plus 13%, which is one out of six.

Speaker 3

罗布,你今天早上加油时油价是多少?

Rob, how much was gas prices for you when you filled it up this morning?

Speaker 8

我这边大约是3.50美元,但比上个周末涨了。

It's around $3.50 in my area, but that's up from last weekend.

Speaker 8

上星期五还是大约2.70美元。

Last Friday, it was about $2.70.

Speaker 3

汽油价格从2.70美元涨到了3.50美元。

From $2.70 to $3.50 with gas prices.

Speaker 3

汤姆,目前原油价格是多少?

What is crude oil price right now, Tom?

Speaker 3

现在情况怎么样?

What is it looking like right now?

Speaker 7

我认为西德克萨斯中质原油今天早上开盘价是72。

I think West Texas Intermediate opened this morning at 72.

Speaker 7

你能做一下吗?

Will you do that?

Speaker 7

只是WTI的价格。

Just WTI price.

Speaker 5

零,七?

0, 7?

Speaker 5

今天上涨了6美元。

Up $6 today.

Speaker 5

汤姆,理想的油价是多少

And Tom, what's the ideal price

Speaker 3

对全球来说?

for world?

Speaker 3

你刚听到汤姆的反应了吗?

Did you just hear Tom's reaction?

Speaker 3

没有,没有。

No, no.

Speaker 3

你听到了吗?汤姆的意思是82,不是72。

Did you, Tom meant to say 82, not 72.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

对。

Right.

Speaker 3

汤姆,我可以吗?这样可以吗?

Tom, can I, is that okay?

Speaker 3

可以说汤姆原本想说的是82,但实际上是87。

Fair to say so Tom meant to say 82 and it's 87.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

是87。

It's 87.

Speaker 3

上涨。

Up.

Speaker 3

上涨。

Up.

Speaker 3

所以,汤姆,如果今天油价是6美元,我们抛开其他因素,单从实际影响来看,无论是像亚当那样不开车、只打Uber的人,还是自己开车、支付汽油费的人,当油价涨到87美分时,市场对油价上涨的敏感度会有多快显现?

So Tom, if this is $6 today and you're seeing, let's talk purely brass tax, how the individual is going to be impacted by this, whether you're like Adam, you don't drive and you take Ubers, or if you're somebody that drives and you pay for gas, if it's going to 87, how quickly is the speed of the market feeling the pain of gas prices?

Speaker 7

好,霍尔木兹海峡就在那里。

Well, Straits of Hormuz are there.

Speaker 7

所以每次出现供应短缺,价格就会上涨。

So every time there's a shortage and a shortage creates prices to go up.

Speaker 7

此外,当需求上升时,目前美国石油的需求量增加了,因为我们正在大量开采,而且供应充足。

Also when demand goes up, and right now there's more demand for The US oil because we're pumping and it's available.

Speaker 7

自从我们制裁马杜罗以来,过去四周委内瑞拉的石油产量翻了一倍。

We've increased the output for Venezuela over the past four weeks, two x from when we took out Maduro.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

所以委内瑞拉的石油产量翻了一倍。

So two x oils coming out of Venezuela.

Speaker 7

记住,他们以前都是偷偷运出石油的。

Remember, they would just sneak the oil out.

Speaker 7

这就像禁运时期的石油。

It was like embargo oil.

Speaker 7

现在是开放的石油了。

Now it's open oil.

Speaker 7

从山谷流出的管道已经畅通,产量翻了一倍。

The pipes are open from the valley and that's two x.

Speaker 7

所以我们正在大量开采,并且供应充足,但由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭,需求增加了。

So we're pumping and we have it available, but there's demand for it because the Straits Of Hormuz have closed.

Speaker 7

看看这个。

Take a look at that.

Speaker 7

这个图表显示的是伊拉克战争时期。

That chart is the Iraq war.

Speaker 7

看看过去的情况。

Take a look at past.

Speaker 7

看第一次飙升,是的。

See the first Is jump is yeah.

Speaker 7

这是伊朗战争。

Is the Iran war.

Speaker 7

所以请点一下,好吗?

So click on, if you would Yeah.

Speaker 5

我们可以看五年吗?

Can we go five years?

Speaker 7

五天?

Five days?

Speaker 7

就五天。

Just five days.

Speaker 7

你只需要这些,好的。

All you need Okay.

Speaker 7

去做吧,就这样。

To do There you go.

Speaker 7

战争开始了。

The war starts.

Speaker 3

已经七个月了。

It's seven months.

Speaker 7

还有,帕特,看看这个。

And for and Pat, take a look at that.

Speaker 7

它缓慢地上升。

It gently goes up.

Speaker 7

是的。

Yep.

Speaker 7

现在看看3月5日发生了什么。

And now look what happens on March 5.

Speaker 7

战争升级了。

The war escalates.

Speaker 7

看到了吗?

See there?

Speaker 7

3月5日,战争升级了。

March 5, the war escalates.

Speaker 7

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 7

它一直挺顽强的,直到战争开始升级。

It it was it was it was hanging tough until the war started escalating.

Speaker 7

现在,霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭了好几天,这给中国带来了压力。

And now the Straits Of Hormuz have been closed for a couple days, and that's putting pressure, you know, on China.

Speaker 7

所以这与需求有关。

So this is demand related.

Speaker 7

美国没问题。

The US is fine.

Speaker 7

我们储量充足。

We have plenty.

Speaker 7

加油站不会出现短缺,但我们所抽取的石油需求上升了。

We're not gonna have shortages at the pump, but the demand for what we're pumping is up.

Speaker 7

所以你猜怎么着?

So guess what?

Speaker 7

价格上涨。

The price goes up.

Speaker 5

罗布,你介意考虑五年,甚至最长期限吗?

And Rob, do you mind going to five years or even go to max?

Speaker 5

因为汤姆,如果我理解得没错,请纠正我。

Because Tom, correct me if I'm wrong.

Speaker 5

他们希望将每桶石油的价格维持在70美元左右。

They wanna keep the oil, barrel of oil around $70.

Speaker 9

是这样吗

Is that

Speaker 3

就是5年以上超过65美元。

what 5 plus above 65.

Speaker 7

是的,没错。

Yes, that's correct.

Speaker 7

美国是65美元。

65 in The U.

Speaker 7

你赚了钱,就能负担得起页岩油的开采。

You make a profit and you can afford to extract shale.

Speaker 5

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 5

所以如果你看这个,帕特,你是负责数据的。

So if you look at this and Pat, you're the numbers guy.

Speaker 5

它在2020年基本上跌到了市场平均水平以下。

It basically fell below market average in 2020.

Speaker 5

当时没人动,对吧?

Nobody was moving, right?

Speaker 5

价格跌到了接近每桶20美元。

It went down to almost $20 a barrel.

Speaker 5

他们甚至都难以把油运走。

They couldn't even get it away.

Speaker 5

但回顾历史,如果你往前看十年,特朗普上台时,油价大约是每桶40美元。

But historically, if you're looking, if you want to go back ten years when Trump took office, oil was around $40.

Speaker 5

是吗?

Is that right?

Speaker 7

是的。

Yep.

Speaker 7

记住这一点。

Remember that yeah.

Speaker 7

而且当时沙特也在操纵市场,试图压低油价,以打击阿尔伯塔油砂和北达科他州的页岩油,因为这些替代性开采项目正在发挥作用。

That and that was also the Saudi market manipulation trying to keep the price low to hurt, Alberta oil sands and North Dakota shale because those are alternative drills that were working.

Speaker 5

然后,汤姆,给我解释一下这个。

And then, Tom, walk me through this.

Speaker 5

2022年,拜登上台后油价飙升,因为我们没有开采那么多石油。

2022 with spikes under Biden because we weren't pumping as much oil.

Speaker 5

这如何影响美国?

How does this affect America?

Speaker 7

2022年发生了什么?

What happened in the 2022?

Speaker 7

疫情后我们逐步恢复,但拜登为了压低油价做了什么?

We slowly opened after COVID, but what had Biden done trying to keep the price down?

Speaker 7

他释放了战略石油储备,导致需求突然飙升。

He emptied the SPR, the strategic And petroleum so suddenly the demand shoots way up.

Speaker 7

这其实是拜登造成的通胀,也是能源部糟糕的行政管理,疫情后本不该发生这种情况。

So that's Biden's, by the way, that's also Biden inflation and just poor executive management from the Department of Energy that didn't have to happen after COVID.

Speaker 5

所以汤姆,给我讲讲这个情况。

So Tom, walk me through this.

Speaker 5

尽管最近五天因伊朗战争出现了大幅上涨,但与几年前的情况相比还是小巫见大巫。

Even though there's been a major spike in the last five days with the Iran war, it pales in comparison to what happened a few years ago.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

那个上涨只是最后面的一点点小波动。

The spike is that little tiny thing at the end.

Speaker 7

你能看看自从特朗普当选以来发生了什么吗?

Can put you the see, since Trump was elected, what's been happening?

Speaker 7

温和地回落到他当选直到十一月?

A gentle slide back to so he gets elected to go to November?

Speaker 7

十一月二十四日?

November 24?

Speaker 7

就是这样。

There you go.

Speaker 7

继续说。

Keep going.

Speaker 7

看到了吗?

See?

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

所以我们应该问的是那个拥有大型卡车的文尼。

So the guy we should be asking is Vinny who's got a massive truck.

Speaker 6

哦,让我给你解释一下。

Oh, let me explain something to you.

Speaker 6

那些人总是说:嘿,来迈阿密吧。

People that are like, Hey, come to Miami.

Speaker 6

我不去迈阿密。

I'm not coming to Miami.

Speaker 6

我才不跟你混呢,你什么意思啊,对人说这种话?

I'm not hanging out with you What you mean at people?

Speaker 4

意思是

Mean by

Speaker 3

顺便说一下,让你知道一下,你需要知道的是这个。

the way, just so you know, here's what you need to know.

Speaker 10

这是

This is

Speaker 3

不是上个星期五,那战争是什么时候开始的?

not last Friday, but when did war start?

Speaker 3

已经有一阵子了。

It's been whatnot.

Speaker 3

今天是第六天。

Today's six days.

Speaker 3

上星期五,价格大约在67到70美元之间,而现在到了这个水平。

Last Friday, it was around $67 $70 to now being at where it's at.

Speaker 3

所以你讲的是上涨了17到20美元,这直接影响了市场。

So you're talking 17 to $20 up, which is direct impact.

Speaker 3

人们已经感受到了。

People are feeling it.

Speaker 3

这其中有多大一部分会反映在这里?

And how much of that's going to translate here?

Speaker 3

特朗普必须控制住这种情况,但如果完全是激素驱动,如果那里没有任何东西流出,而中国却坐在那里,知道他们80%的石油依赖那里。

Trump's going to have to control this, but if straight of hormones, if nothing's leaving there and China's sitting around knowing 80% of their oil, they're relying there.

Speaker 3

汤姆,中国还能多久不站出来说:嘿,我们得保护自己,和伊朗合作,因为我们依赖的石油?

Tom, how much longer can China sit around without coming out and saying, hey, we kind of need to protect ourselves with Iran because the oil we're relying on.

Speaker 3

他们还能撑多久?

How long can they go?

Speaker 7

中国在二十一后天就需要石油了。

China's gonna need oil in twenty one days.

Speaker 7

我读到过,二十一后天他们就会开始感受到影响。

I was reading that twenty one days, they will start to feel it.

Speaker 7

这不会是灾难性的,但在二十一后天,他们真的会开始感受到压力。

It won't be catastrophic, but within twenty one days, they're really gonna start to feel it.

Speaker 7

所以我想知道这一点。

So I'd like to know this.

Speaker 7

伊朗正在关闭霍尔木兹海峡。

Iran is closing the Strait Of Hormuz.

Speaker 7

如果我们控制了天空,而我们确实控制了的话

If we control the skies, which we do

Speaker 6

我本来正要说

I was just gonna say

Speaker 7

我们已经严重打击了他们的海军。

we and we have basically impacted a tremendous amount of their navy.

Speaker 7

到底是什么在封锁霍尔木兹海峡?

What exactly is keeping the Strait Of Hormuz?

Speaker 7

因为那是中国获取石油的地方。

Because that's where their China's going to get their oil.

Speaker 7

还是我们愿意站在背后说,好吧,抱歉,海峡关闭了?

Or are we on the backside willing to say, okay, I'm sorry, the Strait's closed.

Speaker 7

因为这会给中国带来压力。

And because that's going to put pressure on China.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

如果你看看罗布刚调出的这张图表,委内瑞拉出口的大部分原油都运往中国。

If you look at this chart that Rob just pulled up, and Venezuela's export most of their crude oil to China.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

伊朗和委内瑞拉出口到中国的原油所占比例。

Share of Iran and Venezuela's crude oil export that go to China.

Speaker 3

看看这个。

Look at that.

Speaker 3

伊朗占87%,委内瑞拉占55%。

87 percent of Iran and 55% of Venezuela.

Speaker 5

没错。

Bingo.

Speaker 3

如果你现在控制了这两者,而中国由于巴拿马的情况不再控制巴拿马运河,

And if you control both of them now and China no longer has control of Panama Canal because of what happened with Panama,

Speaker 7

如果我们掌控了巴拿马最高法院。

if We have Panama's Supreme Court.

Speaker 3

巴拿马最高法院宣布:不,我们不干了。

Panama Supreme Court comes out and says, No, we're not doing it.

Speaker 3

听着,你对这件事不再有任何权力了。

Listen, you don't have any more authority over this.

Speaker 3

这两个港口归我们了。

These two ports are ours.

Speaker 3

如果你认为这些人,当他们说自己在下棋而且是特级大师时,你真这么想的话,那就先锁定巴拿马运河,让中国无法将其作为武器使用。

If you think these guys, when they say they're playing chess and they're grandmasters, if you think that, You lock in Panama Canal first, so China can't play that as a weapon.

Speaker 3

接下来锁定委内瑞拉,然后再对付伊朗。

You lock in Venezuela next, then you go after Iran.

Speaker 3

现在中国只能坐在那里想:我们能不能给美国制造点麻烦?

Now China's sitting around saying, well, can we create pain for US?

Speaker 3

我们怎样才能给美国制造麻烦,阻止他们做任何事?

How can we create pain for US to do anything?

Speaker 3

从战略角度看,当你思考这些行动的先后顺序时,实际上非常有意思。

Strategically, it's actually very interesting when you think about the sequencing of what's been done.

Speaker 7

嗯,夏天快到了,也许他们可以对仿制的卡洛威球杆实施禁运。

Well, we're coming into summer, maybe they could embargo the knockoff Callaway drivers.

Speaker 6

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 6

嗯,

-Well,

Speaker 3

对你们这样的人而言是灾难性的。

-The catastrophic for guys like you.

Speaker 6

灾难性的。

-Calastrophic.

Speaker 6

是的。

-Yeah.

Speaker 6

我可以推测一下吗?

-Can I speculate on something?

Speaker 3

好的,说吧。

-Yeah, go for it.

Speaker 5

石油。

So oil.

Speaker 5

特朗普一直说他要干两件事。

Trump's been saying he's gonna do two things.

Speaker 5

我们谈过他那个20计划,你知道

You know, we talk about the 20 plan that he

Speaker 6

本来打算做的。

was gonna do.

Speaker 6

在清单顶端,他打算关闭石油边境,

-At the top of

Speaker 5

并且要大力钻探。

the list, he was gonna shut down the oil the border, and he's gonna drill baby drill.

Speaker 5

他不是说了这两件事吗?

Did he not say those two things?

Speaker 5

是的。

-Yes.

Speaker 5

如果这一切都是特朗普计划的一部分呢?

-What if this were all a part of Trump's plan?

Speaker 5

关闭

Shut

Speaker 3

边境

down

Speaker 5

边境,钻吧,宝贝,钻吧。

the border, drill baby drill.

Speaker 5

我们来逐一分析。

Let's go through here.

Speaker 5

我们刚刚了解到,中国,这个我们的头号敌人。

We just learned that China, which is our number one Enemy.

Speaker 5

作战方。

Combatant.

Speaker 5

你想说他们是我们的敌人。

You wanna say that They're our enemy.

Speaker 5

他们从委内瑞拉和伊朗获得多少比例的石油?

They get what percentage of their oil from Venezuela and Iran?

Speaker 5

绝大部分都是。

The vast majority of it.

Speaker 5

钻吧,宝贝,钻吧,打压中国。

Drill, baby, drill, taking down China.

Speaker 5

现在让我们把视角拉远一点。

Now let's pan out a little bit.

Speaker 5

一年前,当叙利亚即将崩溃时,叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德给他的朋友弗拉基米尔打电话:‘嘿,老兄,最近怎么样?’

A year ago when Syria was about to fall, Syria, Bashar al Assad calls his boys, Vladimir, what's up, man?

Speaker 5

尼古拉,我帮不了你。

Nieta, can't help you.

Speaker 5

我有个朋友对这件事做了一个非常精彩的分析。

A buddy of mine did a a great, breakdown of this.

Speaker 5

他帮不了他,因为他自己正深陷乌克兰战争。

Can't help him because he's embroiled in a war in Ukraine.

Speaker 5

没错。

Bingo.

Speaker 5

嘿。

Hey.

Speaker 5

他给伊朗打了电话。

He calls up Iran.

展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
Speaker 5

伊朗什么都做不了,因为他们正在和以色列打仗。

Iran can't do anything because they're fighting with Israel.

Speaker 5

所以一切最终都指向中国。

So everything leads back to China.

Speaker 5

俄罗斯正深陷与乌克兰的战争。

So Russia's embroiled in a war with Ukraine.

Speaker 5

我们正在资助这场战争。

We're funding that.

Speaker 5

伊朗被以色列牵制住了。

Iran is tied up with Israel.

Speaker 5

以色列正在摧毁他们所有的代理势力。

Israel's knocking out all their proxies.

Speaker 5

bing。

Bing.

Speaker 5

bing。

Bing.

Speaker 5

Bing.

Bing.

Speaker 5

Bing.

Bing.

Speaker 5

Bing.

Bing.

Speaker 5

叙利亚倒下。

Syria falls.

Speaker 5

委内瑞拉倒下时,他们会说:嘿,各位。

Venezuela, when they fall, they say, hey, guys.

Speaker 5

谁来帮帮我们?

Who's gonna come help us out here?

Speaker 5

没人。

Nobody.

Speaker 5

那么现在谁在帮助伊朗?

So now who's helping Iran?

Speaker 5

中国出现了吗?

Is China showing up?

Speaker 5

没有。

No.

Speaker 5

俄罗斯出现了吗?

Is Russia showing up?

Speaker 5

没有。

No.

Speaker 5

所以,当特朗普说‘钻吧,宝贝,钻吧’的时候,

So could it be that Trump, when he said, Drill, baby, drill.

Speaker 5

这会不会本来就是他计划的一部分,旨在推翻这些国家,然后对中国的关税问题说:‘喂,兄弟,现在你怎么看?’

This was all part of his plan to take out all these countries and basically say, China, what's up with the tariffs now, buddy?

Speaker 5

你所有的石油,你所有的资源,你所有的能源。

All your oil, all your power, all your energy.

Speaker 5

你有十亿人口需要维持电力供应,而当我铲平你所有盟友时,你会陷入巨大困境。

You have a billion people that you need to keep the lights on, and you're gonna be major struggling when I take out all your allies.

Speaker 5

所以,特朗普是不是从一开始就计划好了这一切?

So could it be that Trump had this planned all along?

Speaker 5

有可能

Could

Speaker 9

是的。

be.

Speaker 3

如果真是这样,如果他们真的这么想,那可真是乱套了。

If it is, if this is exactly how they thought about this, what a mess.

Speaker 5

这与他的策略背道而驰。

That's against the move.

Speaker 5

什么乱套?

What mess.

Speaker 5

他管这叫什么?

What

Speaker 3

他怎么称呼它的?

did he call it?

Speaker 3

他说马可·卢比奥最终会成为有史以来最伟大的

He said Marco Rubio will end up being the greatest

Speaker 5

国务卿

Secretary of state

Speaker 3

他说过这话。

of all time is what he said.

Speaker 3

所以,汤姆,我们如何看待中国的进口问题呢?

So Tom, what are we looking at here with the China imports?

Speaker 7

嗯,你,罗布。

Well, you, Rob.

Speaker 7

去年,中国通过霍尔木兹海峡每天进口500万桶石油。

China imported 5,000,000 barrels a day through the straight of Hormuz last year.

Speaker 5

是的。

I Yeah.

Speaker 5

Don't

Speaker 3

数据显示,120万桶来自伊拉克,395万桶来自科威特,106万桶来自卡塔尔,666万桶来自阿联酋。

And it tells you from where 1.2 from Iraq, three ninety five Kuwait, 106 Qatar, six sixty six UAE.

Speaker 3

他们本该是667万桶,703万桶来自阿曼,150万桶来自沙特,140万桶来自伊朗。

That's they should have done six sixty seven, seven zero three Oman, 1,500,000 Saudi and 1,400,000 Iran.

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

所以别纠结这些数字了。

And so nevermind the numbers.

Speaker 7

伊朗只占其中的140万,但这条高速公路已经关闭了。

Iran is only 1.4 of that, but the highway is closed.

Speaker 3

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 3

所以,汤姆,你不觉得这只是一个巧合吗?

So, but do you not think Tom, it's just a match.

Speaker 3

所以,要么你是我们,听罗布讲那些故事,你有那个沙希德无人机的视频片段吗?

So it's one of two things either if you're us, hear the stories of Rob, do you have the clip of the Shahid drone?

Speaker 3

我看过一个这样的视频。

There's this one video that I saw.

Speaker 3

我发给你,你能播放一下关于这些沙希德无人机的片段吗?

I'll send it to you, which do you have a Play this clip about these Shahid drones, right?

Speaker 3

如果你看了这样的视频,罗布,你继续。

If you watch something like this go ahead, Rob.

Speaker 1

你知道为什么沙希德136无人机如此致命吗?

Do you know why the Shahid 136 drone is so deadly?

Speaker 1

它只有11英尺长,翼展8英尺,却能携带40公斤的弹头,飞行超过1800公里,精准打击目标。

It's just 11 feet long with an eight foot wingspan, but it carries a 40 kilogram warhead and can fly over 1,800 kilometers to strike with deadly precision.

Speaker 1

发动机声音很大且粗糙。

The engine loud and rough.

Speaker 1

它不具备隐身能力。

It's not stealthy.

Speaker 1

你能听到它飞过来。

You hear it coming.

Speaker 1

但你能阻止它吗?

But can you stop it?

Speaker 1

它只值2万美元,但击落它却要花费40万到400万美元不等。

It costs just $20,000, but taking it down can cost anywhere from 400,000 to $4,000,000.

Speaker 1

这就像用一辆兰博基尼去拦一辆自行车。

That's like trying to stop a bicycle with a Lamborghini.

Speaker 1

你知道为什么

Did you know why the

Speaker 3

那里开火了。

shot there.

Speaker 3

所以一开始,就像现在,你看看俄罗斯和乌克兰,昨晚汤姆在晚餐时还在讨论,他们用2万美元的无人机,却要花40万到几百万美元才能将其击落。

So at the beginning, like right now, you're looking at Russia and Ukraine, were having this conversation somewhat last night, Tom, at dinner is if they're using $20,000 drones and to take them down, they have to use $400,000 to a few million dollars to take them down.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

如果这些人继续制造这些无人机,而且产量还在加速,你觉得特朗普团队有没有意识到,无论他们做什么,这都必须是一场迈克·泰森第一回合的击倒战,而不是像巴斯特·道格拉斯那样拖到第八、第九回合的持久战——我不是说他们会赢得战争,但对他们而言,如果六个月后伊朗革命卫队依然存在,那就算他们输了战争。

And if these guys continue to make these and they're accelerating, do you think Trump's team is realizing like whatever they do, this has to be like a Mike Tyson first round knockout type of a fight, not something that can be dragged out to eighth, ninth round like a Buster Douglas, not saying that they're going to win the war, but to them winning the war is if the IRGC is still in business six months from now, that to me is winning the war.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

如果伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队仍然存在,你不会说他们赢了吗?

If IRGC is still around, would you not say that they won?

Speaker 6

是的,当然。

Yeah, of course.

Speaker 3

你明白我在说什么吗

Do you understand what I'm saying to

Speaker 6

完全明白。

100%.

Speaker 3

如果他们仍然存在并且仍在掌控局面,这可不是什么好事。

If they're still around and they're still running the show, that's not a good look.

Speaker 3

所以当你们看到他们使用的这些无人机来回交锋时,你认为美国必须迅速行动吗?

So for them, when you see this back and forth with the drones that they have, do you think US has to do this very quickly?

Speaker 3

因为如果他们不迅速行动,中国就会介入并采取行动。

Because if they don't do it really quickly, China's gonna get involved and do something.

Speaker 3

你没有太多时间了。

You don't have a long time.

Speaker 3

我认为这就像必须确保你抓住核心。

I think this is like a, you have to make sure you get the center.

Speaker 6

窗口非常、非常小。

The window is very, very small.

Speaker 6

事实上,汤姆,你提出了一个很好的观点。

In fact, Tom, you made a great point.

Speaker 6

我记得周一我们播放的那段视频,海军说:所有人,赶紧撤离。

I remember the video that we played on Monday of the Navy going, everybody, this is the everybody get out.

Speaker 6

已经关闭了。

It's closed.

Speaker 6

首先,我们占据主导地位。

First of all, we're dominating.

Speaker 6

我们已经击沉了他们大部分的海军舰队。

We've sunk the majority of their naval fleet.

Speaker 6

不管那人是谁,他 probably 已经死了。

Whoever that guy is, he's probably dead.

Speaker 6

那么,你觉得汤姆已经多久了

Well, how long do you think Tom has been

Speaker 7

在任何区域关闭了雷达。

Turned off radar in any area.

Speaker 6

关闭了雷达和所有东西。

Turned off radar and everything.

Speaker 7

那么是什么在关闭这条直线?

So what's closing the straight line?

Speaker 6

什么是是的。

What's yeah.

Speaker 6

谁在掌管这一切?

Who's running the show?

Speaker 6

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 6

如果我们正在轰炸并且正在这么做,想想吧,佩特,这是个很好的观点。

If we're bombing and we're doing it, think, Pet, that's a great point.

Speaker 6

赶紧了结吧。

Get it over with.

Speaker 6

把他们全部摧毁,因为如果我们想要赢,就必须速战速决。

Destroy them all because if we're gonna win, we need to win fast.

Speaker 6

那之后谁来控制霍尔木兹海峡?

And then who's gonna control the Strait Of Hormuz?

Speaker 3

它将会

It's gonna

Speaker 6

be a

Speaker 7

两点在这里。

two point here.

Speaker 7

所以我昨晚在看书。

So I was reading last night.

Speaker 7

他们说,到底是谁关闭了霍尔木兹海峡?

They said, who really closed the Strait Of Hormuz?

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

劳埃德保险公司。

Lloyd's of London.

Speaker 7

因为劳埃德恐慌了,说你们的保险都不作数。

Cause Lloyds panicked and said, None of your insurance is good.

Speaker 7

那么,劳埃德保险公司是否实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡?

So did Lloyds of London effectively close the Strait Of Hormuz?

Speaker 7

因为很多船只不敢航行,因为它们没有保险。

Cause a lot of these boats aren't moving because they don't have insurance.

Speaker 7

它们没有投保。

They're not insured.

Speaker 5

-特朗普做的。

-Trump did.

Speaker 5

特朗普上台后,基本上说我会为所有人提供保险。

Trump came in and basically said, I'm gonna insure everybody.

Speaker 5

劳合社一直是商业保险和各类保险领域最伟大的保险市场,你知道的。

Nothing Lloyd's of London has been the the the greatest insurance marketplace for, you know, commercial insurance and all types of

Speaker 7

保险专业承保。

insurance specialty underwriting.

Speaker 5

世界上。

-In the world.

Speaker 5

他们没有离开并基本上从这种局面中重新定位自己吗?

And they did they not move out and basically reposition themselves out of this situation?

Speaker 5

而特朗普出现后说,不,不。

And Trump shows up and goes, No, no.

Speaker 5

我来给你们保险。

I'll insure you.

Speaker 5

这就像我们在加利福尼亚讨论的方式。

It's kind of like how we talk about in California.

Speaker 5

没人了,所有保险公司都离开了。

Nobody's all the insurance companies are leaving.

Speaker 5

所有保险公司都离开了。

All the insurance companies are leaving.

Speaker 5

如果特朗普出现并说,是的,如果你想买房,我来帮你。

And if Trump showed up and he's like, Yeah, if you wanna buy a house, I got you.

Speaker 5

我来负责保险。

I'll do the insurance.

Speaker 5

所以,本质上是在告诉所有国家:继续做生意。

So, essentially, telling all the countries, Keep doing business.

Speaker 5

生意不会停止。

Business will not stop.

Speaker 5

这是他的推文吗?

Is this his tweet?

Speaker 5

立即生效。

Effective immediately.

Speaker 5

我已命令美国开发金融公司为所有海上贸易,特别是通过波斯湾运输的能源,提供合理的价格、政治风险保险和担保,以确保其金融安全。

I've ordered The United States Development And Finance Corporation to provide a very reasonable price, political risk, insurance, and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy traveling through the Gulf, the Persian Gulf.

Speaker 5

所有航运公司均可享受此服务;如有必要,美国海军将开始护航油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡。

This will be available to all shipping lines as if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait Of Hormuz.

Speaker 5

没错。

Bingo.

Speaker 5

他说,要确保能源向全球自由流动。

He said the free flow of energy to the world.

Speaker 5

美国的经济和军事实力是世界上最强大的。

The United States' economic and military might is the greatest on Earth.

Speaker 7

完成这份文件需要一点时间。

It takes a minute to get that paper done.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

所以你得等到文件办完才行。

So you got to wait till you get the paper done.

Speaker 7

但说到帕特的观点,我另外读到一点,不知道你有没有《简氏军事》。

But to Pat's point, the other thing I read, I don't know if you have Jane's Jane's military.

Speaker 7

有一位简氏分析师说,在现代战争中,如果大国发动集中攻击,你会迅速被击溃。

There's a Jane's analyst that says, in modern warfare, the big power on a concentrated attack, you're dead and you're dead fast.

Speaker 7

但当战争变得更为广泛和持久时,大国就会遇到困难。

But when wars get wider and longer, the big power has trouble with it.

Speaker 7

俄罗斯和乌克兰的情况就是这样。

That's what happened to Russia and Ukraine.

Speaker 7

他们突然在四五个不同的地点作战。

They suddenly were fighting on four or five different different locations.

Speaker 7

第一点。

Number one.

Speaker 7

第二点,如果战争进一步扩大,情况就会变得更加复杂。

Number two, if this goes wider, then it becomes more difficult.

Speaker 7

而无人机正是如此,这就是我认为他们正在宣布激光武器等技术的原因,因为他们无法依赖爱国者系统。

And the drones, this is why I think they're making announcements about laser weapons and everything because they can't depend on Patriot.

Speaker 7

你知道爱国者导弹是什么吗?

You know what the Patriot missile was?

Speaker 7

当我们第一次听说爱国者导弹时,听到伊拉克使用飞毛腿导弹,这些飞毛腿导弹精度不高,但一旦落在你头上,威力巨大,会造成严重破坏。

When we first heard about the Patriot missiles, when we heard about Iraqi with the Scuds, they had Scud missiles that were marginally accurate, but if they landed on you, they were big and they made tremendous damage.

Speaker 7

但它们是常规武器。

But they were conventional.

Speaker 7

所以爱国者导弹会在它们到达目标前,在某个区域将其拦截击落。

And so Patriot missiles would shoot them down over some area before it reached a target.

Speaker 7

所以拦截器,这完全正确。

So the interceptors, this is exactly right.

Speaker 7

你得用一辆兰博基尼去击落一辆自行车。

You have to shoot down, you know, a bicycle with a Lamborghini.

Speaker 7

这就是为什么先进的武器系统很重要,必须先在空中把它们击落。

That's why the advanced weaponry is important to go knock them down out of the sky first.

Speaker 7

但战争一旦拖得更广更久,帕特,就会对被攻击的一方更有利。

But the wider and longer it gets pat, favors the one you've attacked.

Speaker 7

这正是乌克兰发生的情况。

And that's exactly what happened in Ukraine.

Speaker 3

我想展示一下伊朗外交部长的这段采访。

I want to show this interview of the foreign minister of Iran.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

我想让你根据他的自信和沉着,或者缺乏这些特质,来评判他,这是一次非常出色的采访。

And I want you to judge him by his confidence and his poise or the lack of, this was a great interview.

Speaker 3

我全程观看了。

I watched the whole thing.

Speaker 3

无论NBC的采访者是谁,都做得非常出色。

It's very well done by whoever the interviewers from NBC did a great job.

Speaker 3

他问:你如何看待地面入侵的可能性?

He's asking, what do you think about the potential of a ground invasion?

Speaker 3

来看看他的反应。

And here's how he reacts.

Speaker 3

说吧。

Go ahead.

Speaker 11

排除了在伊朗部署地面部队的可能性。

Ruled out boots on the ground in Iran.

Speaker 11

你担心美国会入侵你们国家吗?

Are you afraid of a US invasion in your country?

Speaker 12

不担心。

No.

Speaker 12

我们在等他们。

We are waiting for them.

Speaker 5

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 11

你们是在等美军地面部队入侵吗?

You you are waiting for the US military to invade the ground troops?

Speaker 12

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 12

因为我们有信心能够应对他们,这对他们来说将是一场巨大的灾难。

Because we we are confident that we can confront them and that would be a big disaster for them.

Speaker 11

你的意思是,伊朗愿意在美军地面部队介入时与美军正面交锋?

You're saying that Iran is and willing to take on the US military if there were to be ground troops?

Speaker 12

我们比上一场战争更加做好了这场战争的准备。

Well, we were ready for this war even more than the previous war.

Speaker 12

所以你可以看到,我们的导弹在上一场战争后得到了多大程度的升级,因为我们吸取了大量经验教训。

So you can see, you know, the quality of our missiles, how much they are upgraded after the last war because we learned lots of lessons.

Speaker 12

我们为任何其他情况都做好了准备,包括地面入侵。

And we are prepared for any other eventuality, even, you know, a ground invasion.

Speaker 12

因此,我们的士兵已为任何情况做好了准备。

So our soldiers are prepared for any scenario.

Speaker 12

当我提到我们在等待他们时,并不是说我们在等待战争继续。

When I said that we are waiting for them, it didn't mean that we are waiting for continuation of the war.

Speaker 12

不,但我们已经做好了应对任何情况、任何可能性的准备,我们知道我们能够应对。

No, but we have prepared ourselves to confront with any scenario, with any eventuality, any possibility, and we know that we can handle that.

Speaker 11

特朗普总统并未排除

President Trump has not ruled out

Speaker 3

这仅仅是装强硬吗?

Is that just acting tough?

Speaker 3

当你听到这个时,你有什么想法?

What what do you what do think about when you hear that?

Speaker 7

他看起来相当自信。

He looks somewhat confident.

Speaker 7

他的眨眼频率并没有增加。

His blink rate doesn't go up.

Speaker 7

他看起来并没有处于一种紧张的身体姿态。

It doesn't appear that he's in a, like, a stressed physical posture.

Speaker 7

他要么相信自己所说的话但错了,要么相信自己所说的话,而事情确实存在某种依据。

He either believes what he's saying and he's wrong, or he believes what he's saying and there's something there.

Speaker 5

亚当。

Adam.

Speaker 5

这是我见过的最妄想的领导人。

That is the most delusional leader I've ever seen.

Speaker 5

这就像是指着比分牌说事。

So it's kind of like point at the scoreboard.

Speaker 5

你以100比4领先,而得分只有4分的那支队伍却说:我们正把他们牢牢掌控在手中。

You're winning a 100 to four, and the team with the four is like, we got them right where we want them.

Speaker 5

我现在就告诉你。

I'm telling you right now.

Speaker 5

老兄,他们刚刚斩首了你们的最高领袖。

Dude, they just decapitated your supreme leader.

Speaker 5

你们所有的军事将领,所有人都在安息日参加了这次会议——而以色列和美国都不会在安息日发动战争——他们却像傻子一样坐在房间里,结果全被消灭了。

And all your military generals, everyone showed up to this meeting on Shabbat when Israel doesn't, and and, America doesn't wage war, and they sat in a room like idiots, and they all got destroyed.

Speaker 5

全世界现在都在看着伊朗分崩离析。

The whole world is looking at Iran now crumbling.

Speaker 5

政权正在瓦解,他们却还妄想着:我们正把他们牢牢掌控在手中。

The regime is falling, and they have the the the notion to be like, we got them right where we want them.

Speaker 5

这让你想起什么了?

You know what this reminds me of?

Speaker 5

你有没有见过那些女孩?

You ever see these girls?

Speaker 5

就是那个什么播客里的。

The on, like, the whatever podcast.

Speaker 5

你看过吗?

Have you ever seen it?

Speaker 5

那个女孩又邋遢又恶心。

The girl's a disgusting, sloppy girl.

Speaker 5

你让她给自己打分,从一到十分。

And you go, Rate yourself one through 10.

Speaker 5

她却说她是十分,可她明显连一分都不到。

She's like, I'm a 10, when she's clearly a one.

Speaker 5

这简直太荒谬了。

And it's so completely delusional.

Speaker 5

大家都说:是的,是的,你就是10分。

Everybody's going like, Yeah, yeah, you're a 10.

Speaker 5

你行的,宝贝。

You got this, honey.

Speaker 5

当伊朗正在崩溃时,他们的领导人被杀了。

When Iran is crumbling, their leader got killed.

Speaker 5

与此同时,这个家伙是谁?

Meanwhile, the Who is this guy?

Speaker 3

-论坛部长。

-Forum minister.

Speaker 5

-某个发言人,国防部长。

-Some spokesperson, force minister.

Speaker 3

-他一直待在伊朗。

-He's been Iran.

Speaker 5

你——这都是我们计划的一部分。

You -This is all part of our plan.

Speaker 5

我们希望我们的领导人被杀。

We wanted our leader to get killed.

Speaker 13

这是

This is

Speaker 5

都是我们计划的一部分。

all part of our plan.

Speaker 5

这要么是撒谎,要么是妄想,或者两者兼而有之。

It's either lying or it's delusion or it's a little bit of both.

Speaker 9

他在名单上吗?

He on the list?

Speaker 9

Is

Speaker 6

这个人是我们想要针对的目标吗?

this guy somebody that we would be wanting to target?

Speaker 6

因为如果我们想要他,他就会消失。

Because if we want him, he's gone.

Speaker 6

所以我们一直让他发言,而他还在说这些胡话,我认为他必须这么做。

So the fact that we've been letting him speak and he's still talking to his nonsense, I think he has to do that.

Speaker 6

因为你知道吗?

Because guess what?

Speaker 6

第一,他根本不会去打仗。

Number one, he's not gonna go fight.

Speaker 6

但第二,这里有人听说过伊朗地面部队有多厉害吗?

But number two, have has anybody here ever heard of how amazing the Iranian ground troop army?

Speaker 6

没有。

No.

Speaker 6

我从来没听说过这些。

I haven't heard none of that.

Speaker 6

他必须这么做。

He has to do that.

Speaker 6

想象一下,如果那个人慌了,军队会怎么办?

Imagine that guy panicking, then what does the army do?

Speaker 6

因为军队都在仰望他。

Because the army is looking up to him.

Speaker 6

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 6

因为其他所有将军都死了。

Because who else is all the generals are dead.

Speaker 6

所以我认为他必须这么做。

So I think he has to do it.

Speaker 6

但你想一想,你觉得那个人有多害怕?

But mind you, how petrified do you think that guy is?

Speaker 6

在美国和以色列的支持下,无论他在哪里,他们都知道他的位置。

With with United States, with Israel's backing over there, wherever he is, they know where he is.

Speaker 6

无论他躲在哪一个掩体、哪一个角落,他们都知道。

Any bunker, any hot wherever he's at, they know.

Speaker 6

所以如果他们想让他消失,对我来说,他们是在让他活着。

So if they want him gone, that To me, they're keeping him alive

Speaker 5

你对这样一个人有什么看法?

What's for your opinion on a guy like this who's

Speaker 7

显然要么在撒谎,要么是妄想。

clearly either lying or delusional.

Speaker 7

-你的立场是什么?

-Where's your position

Speaker 3

对此?

on this?

Speaker 3

如果你身居要职,承担这样的工作,那你一定是妄想。

Be in a position and have a job like this, you have to be delusional.

Speaker 3

你一半的工作就是——是的。

Half your job is -Yeah.

Speaker 3

特朗普有时候也是妄想的。

-You know, Trump is sometimes delusional.

Speaker 3

当他发表国情咨文时,你看着他说话,他竟然说最高法院输给了关税。

When he's at the State of the Union, given a message and you're watching him saying, he just lost Supreme court to tariffs.

Speaker 3

他们即将攻击伊朗。

They're about to attack Iran.

Speaker 3

他一边说这是有史以来最好的经济。

He's talking to saying, it's the greatest economy.

Speaker 3

这是有史以来最伟大的国家。

This is greatest country ever.

Speaker 3

要胜任这样的职位,你需要一点这种特质,因为你能承受住压力。

A little bit of, you need that to make a position like this because you can handle the pressure.

Speaker 3

所以这意味着他具备了这些条件。

So that means he's got it.

Speaker 3

但顺便说一句,疯狂的是,我们随时可能报道他被杀的消息。

But by the way, what's crazy is any minute we can report that he got killed.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 3

你明白这一点。

You realize that.

Speaker 3

随时我们都可以宣布他被杀了,那接下来是谁?

Any minute we can say he got killed, then who's the next guy?

Speaker 3

接下来会是谁冒出来,继续说这些话?

Who's the next guy that's gonna come up and So talk about

Speaker 5

这就像是卡罗琳·勒维特上台担任新闻秘书,而特朗普刚被谋杀一样。

it's equivalent of Caroline Leavitt getting up there as the press secretary, and Trump was just murdered.

Speaker 5

我们的整个内阁都不在了。

Our entire cabinet is gone.

Speaker 5

我们正在输掉这场战争,而她却说,美国比以往更强大。

We're losing the war, and she goes, America's greater than ever.

Speaker 5

所以这甚至不是特朗普在说这些话。

So it's not even Trump saying this.

Speaker 5

我完全理解你的意思。

I understand what you're saying exactly.

Speaker 5

国情咨文,国情咨文就是你会说,联盟的国情是强大的。

The state of the union, the state of the union is you're gonna say the state of the union of union is strong.

Speaker 5

这位新闻秘书正在对所有人撒谎,而所有人都心知肚明。

This is the press secretary just lying to everybody, and everybody knows it.

Speaker 5

所以这有点不一样。

So it's a little bit different.

Speaker 5

I

Speaker 3

我完全理解你所说的《孙子兵法》。

totally understand what you're read art of war.

Speaker 3

《孙子兵法》最根本的规则是什么?

What what is the most basic rule of art of war?

Speaker 3

势大时要示弱,势小时要示强。

Act small when you're big, act big when you're small.

Speaker 3

当你一无所有时,你必须装出一副忙得不可开交的样子,让别人相信你有很多事情在进行。

You have to kind of act like when you have nothing you have going on, you have to make them believe that you have a lot of stuff going on.

Speaker 3

所以他们大概只读了《孙子兵法》的三年级简化版。

So they're probably reading the third grade version of art of war.

Speaker 3

也许他们正是用这种方式来暗示:嘿,也许吧。

And maybe they're kind of using that to be like, Hey, maybe.

Speaker 3

而他

And he's

Speaker 5

犯了个错误,别挡他们的路。

making a mistake, get out of their way.

Speaker 5

如果这是一场扑克游戏,而他在虚张声势,那么美国和以色列盟友的手牌是什么?

If this were a poker game and he's bluffing, what hand does United States and Israel allies

Speaker 3

让我给你读一些《华尔街日报》的数据。

Let read you stats from Wall Street Journal.

Speaker 3

伊朗的导弹发射减少了86%。

Iran missile launches are down 86%.

Speaker 5

哦,原来有数据啊。

Oh, so there's data.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

有一种东西叫数据,对吧?

There's something called data, right?

Speaker 3

下降了80%,罗布,这是谁?

It's down 80 Rob, who is this?

Speaker 8

库珀?

Cooper?

Speaker 8

库珀上将。

Admiral Cooper.

Speaker 8

布拉德·库珀。

Brad Cooper.

Speaker 3

布拉德·布拉德利

Brad Bradley

Speaker 5

库珀,向你致敬。

Cooper, respect to you.

Speaker 5

很棒,这

Great This

Speaker 8

他正在更新目前正在发射的伊朗导弹数量

is where he gives an update on the amount of Iranian missiles that are being shot right

Speaker 3

现在。

now.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

说吧

Go for

Speaker 6

好的。

it.

Speaker 14

如果我回顾过去24小时的行动情况,与行动开始时相比,弹道导弹袭击已减少了90%。

Then if I just look back over the last twenty four hours of the operation compared to the where we were at start, Ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% since day one.

Speaker 14

无人机袭击自第一天以来已减少了83%。

Drone attacks have decreased by 83% since day one.

Speaker 14

尽管如此,我们仍保持警惕。

Having said this, we remain vigilant.

Speaker 14

我们对伊朗无人机的打击

Our strikes against the Iranian Drone

Speaker 3

攻击下降了多少?

attacks were down what?

Speaker 5

98%。

98%.

Speaker 14

就在不久前,我们还说已经击沉或摧毁了24艘船。

Doesn't say just a little while ago that we we have sunk or destroyed 24 ships.

Speaker 14

当时确实是这样。

That was true at the moment.

Speaker 14

我们现在已超过30艘

We're now up over 30

Speaker 3

船。

ships.

Speaker 3

船。

Ships.

Speaker 3

船只。

Ships.

Speaker 3

而且在

And in

Speaker 14

就在过去的几个小时里,我们击中了一艘伊朗无人机母舰,大小约为二战时期的航空母舰。

just the last few hours, we hit an Iranian drone carrier ship, roughly the size of a World War two aircraft carrier.

Speaker 14

而就在我们说话的时候,它正在起火。

And as we speak, it's on fire.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,

I mean,

Speaker 5

只是为了让你知道,

it's just so you know

Speaker 3

那是什么?

what that is?

Speaker 6

顺便问一下,你看到了吗

By the way, have you seen

Speaker 5

那些直面蜂巢状的图片。

the pictures of those straight face beehive.

Speaker 5

简直像一场喜剧小品。

Almost be a comedy skit.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

汤姆,你来说。

Tom, go ahead.

Speaker 7

不。

No.

Speaker 7

他在这里说的是他们用来搭载无人机的那些船。

What what what he's talking about here is these ships that they make to hold the drones.

Speaker 7

它们看起来像蜂巢。

They look like beehives.

Speaker 7

所以我们弄清楚了他们从哪里发射无人机,然后袭击了那艘船。

And so we figured out where they were launching the drones from and we hit the ship.

Speaker 7

所有运行船只的无人机和设备一旦被击中,就会燃烧起来,对吧?

So all the drones and stuff that run the ship and when they hit those, they burn Right.

Speaker 7

然后它们突然爆炸,因为船上装载的弹药被引燃了。

And then they suddenly go up because the munitions that are on there goes up.

Speaker 7

所以我们基本上是击中了一艘正在发射无人机的‘蜂巢’,这就是为什么无人机的数量下降了83%。

So it's basically we hit one of the beehives that's launching the drones, which is why the drones are down 83%.

Speaker 6

顺便说一下,这段 footage 是美国海军潜艇发射鱼雷的潜望镜画面,我们已经很久没用过了。

And by the way, this is a periscope footage of US Navy submarine torpedoing, which we haven't used in a while.

Speaker 6

一艘伊朗护卫舰在斯里兰卡海岸附近被击沉。

An Iranian frigate dinner off the coast of Sri Lanka.

Speaker 6

这是罗布,看看这个。

This is Rob, look at that.

Speaker 6

那是一艘伊朗军舰,我们的潜艇正在使用鱼雷。

That's an Iranian ship and we're our sub is using a torpedo.

Speaker 6

我们走复古路线了。

We're going old school.

Speaker 6

看右边。

Watch the right side.

Speaker 6

再见。

Bye.

Speaker 3

天哪。

Oh my God.

Speaker 6

再见。

Bye.

Speaker 6

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 6

我们就是这样行事,兄弟。

That's how we roll, homie.

Speaker 3

哇。

Wow.

Speaker 3

顺便说一下,昨天福克斯电视台在谈论罗布,这是那个关于激光的片段吗?

And by the way, so on Fox yesterday, they were talking about Rob, is this the clip about laser?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yep.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

开始吧。

Go for it.

Speaker 3

看第No.

Watch No.

Speaker 3

这个,

This,

Speaker 15

但你总是想保留这个选择。

But you always wanna keep that option open.

Speaker 15

到目前为止,事情还没有朝这个方向发展。

And so far, that's not where this is going.

Speaker 15

正如特朗普所说,我们从未见过这样的情况。

As Trump would say, we've never seen anything like this.

Speaker 15

这相当于我们在伊拉克‘震慑与敬畏’行动中看到的火力的两倍。

This is two times the firepower that we saw over Iraq and shock and awe.

Speaker 15

这些是B-52轰炸机投掷的8万磅级炸弹。

These are b 50 twos dropping 80,000 pound ordinance.

Speaker 15

我们正在使用人工智能识别目标。

We have artificial intelligence identifying targets.

Speaker 15

太空军能够探测伊朗导弹的发射地点,然后立即摧毁发射平台。

Space Force is seeing where these Iranian missiles launch from and then can take out the launch pad like that.

Speaker 15

我们正在用激光武器击落伊朗的无人机。

We're shooting down Iranian drones with laser weapons.

Speaker 15

此外,自杀式无人机,我们首次在实战中使用它们。

Also, kamikaze drones, we're using them for the first time ever Mhmm.

Speaker 15

在战斗中。

In combat.

Speaker 15

这展现了美国军事力量的压倒性优势,令人震惊。

So this is just an astonishing display of American military support superiority.

Speaker 15

这很可能正式标志着二十一世纪战争的开端。

Probably officially marks the beginning of twenty first century warfare.

Speaker 15

我们已经彻底消灭了伊朗领导层的最顶层两人。

We have completely eradicated the two top layers of the Iranian leadership.

Speaker 15

他们的海军沉入海底,导弹发射量从每天80枚降至如今的20枚。

The navy's at the bottom of the sea, and their missiles were going from 80 a day to now 20 a day.

Speaker 15

证据确凿。

The case is clear.

Speaker 15

世界上头号恐怖主义赞助国。

Number one sponsor of terror in the world.

Speaker 15

他们正在加速提升弹道导弹能力。

They were ramping up their ballistic missile capabilities.

Speaker 15

他们正在挖掘更深的隧道以再次进行浓缩,并且他们的海军威胁着石油运输。

They were digging deeper tunnels to enrich again, and their navy threatens the flow of oil.

Speaker 15

我们不在乎谁掌权,他们只要遵守我们的规则就行

We don't care who rules the They just have to play

Speaker 16

按照我们的规则来。

by our rules.

Speaker 3

你想去这个吗?

You want to go to this?

Speaker 3

让我读一下这个。

Let me just read this.

Speaker 3

激光武器在‘史诗狂怒’行动中投入使用。

Laser weapon deployed in Operation Epic Fury.

Speaker 3

太空军让伊朗的导弹戛然而止。

A Space Force stops Iran's missiles in their tracks.

Speaker 3

这是《纽约邮报》的一篇报道。

This is a New York Post story.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

伊朗武器的残骸被炸成碎片或机械瘫痪后,持续从中东的天空中坠落。

Iran's weapon debris blown to pieces or mechanically crippled keeps dropping from the Middle East sky for that.

Speaker 3

我们可以感谢那些由美国制造的红外制导卫星、军用级恶意软件和雷达干扰软件。

We can thank heat seeking satellites, military grade malware and radar jamming software, made in America.

Speaker 3

作为‘史诗狂怒’行动的一部分,新型激光武器已被用于对抗伊朗。

New technology laser weaponry has been used against Iran as part of operation epic fury.

Speaker 3

部署在中东国家海岸附近的美国海军驱逐舰配备了这种新型武器,它似乎是一种高能激光系统,集成了光学致盲和监视光环系统。

The us Navy destroyer off the Coast of Middle East nation is fitted with the new weapon, which appears to be high energy laser with integrated optical dazzler and surveillance halo systems.

Speaker 3

这种激光是一种尖端设备,配有可转向的头部,能够集中产生高强度、高度聚焦的能量束,用于击落无人机,由太空部队的汤姆操作。

The laser is a state of the art device with steerable head, able to concentrate on intense tightly focused beam of energy and takes out drone, the Space Force Tom.

Speaker 3

关于这个,你能告诉我们些什么?

What can you tell us about this?

Speaker 7

所以我在想,是谁泄露了这个消息?为什么我们要讨论这些最先进的情报?

So I'm wondering who leaked this story and why are we talking about some of the most advanced stuff?

Speaker 7

还记得我们去抓马杜罗之后,他们说他得了偏头痛,然后我们就倒下了吗?

Remember after when we went to get Maduro and they said, oh, he's getting migraines and we were falling down.

Speaker 7

你还记得当时是什么情况吗?

Remember what it was?

Speaker 7

无可奉告,无可奉告,无可奉告。

No comment, no comment, no comment.

Speaker 7

而且我们当时是在使用能量吗?

And it's like, were we using energy?

Speaker 7

是能量武器还是其他类型的武器?

Were energy weapons or alternative weapons?

Speaker 7

我们无可奉告

We have no comment

Speaker 3

卡罗琳·莱维特发了推文提到过这件事。

about Caroline Levitt tweeted something about that.

Speaker 3

听起来有点像,你还记得吗?

And it sounded a little bit like, do you remember that?

Speaker 3

我们当时想,等等,这也太完美了。

We're like, wait a minute, was too perfect.

Speaker 7

是的,没错。

Yeah, yeah, Correct.

Speaker 7

所以我们现在正在公布大量关于它如何运作、作用对象以及功能的细节。

So now we're coming out with a lot of detail about how it works, what it works, and what it does.

Speaker 7

所以答案是,我们已经研发出了先进的武器,而普通人尚未意识到这些武器的存在。

So the answer is, we have advanced there are advanced weaponry that the average person, you know, has not become aware of.

Speaker 7

现在这些内容正逐渐进入新闻报道的术语体系。

And now is rolling into the lexicon of news coverage

Speaker 3

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

关于国际战争。

On international war.

Speaker 7

这些武器很重要,因为请记住对拦截器的分析——你拥有多少枚拦截导弹,其前提假设是你必须使用爱国者导弹和拦截弹才能击落所有来袭火箭。

And these weapons are important because remember the analysis of the interceptors, how many interceptor missiles you have, is the assumption that you have to use a Patriot missile and an interceptor to get all of the incoming rockets.

Speaker 7

马克在《商业周三》节目中用图表很好地指出了这一点。

And Mark pointed it out on Business Wednesday very well with a chart.

Speaker 7

嗯,这个图表只有在没有其他能击落这些目标的替代武器时才成立。

Well, that chart is true only if there's not alternative weapons that will also take these things down.

Speaker 7

所以,你在这里看到的,我不禁怀疑我们是不是正在跟俄罗斯和中国对话。

And so what you're seeing here, I'm wondering if we aren't kinda talking to Russia and China here.

Speaker 7

它想表达的是:你知道吗?

It's pointing out is like, you know what?

Speaker 7

如果你打算把那些玩意儿送过来,还想通过旁门左道帮助伊朗,那我们就会把这些东西打下来。

If you wanna send that crap over here and you wanna help Iran through the back door, you know, we're going to take this stuff down.

Speaker 7

所以好好想想。

So think about this.

Speaker 7

我要告诉你的是,在国防部内部,我们其实非常希望中国现在把新的导弹系统交给伊朗,这样我们就能对其进行测试。

And I because I'll tell you, inside the Department of Defense, we would love China to expose new missile systems by giving them to Iran right now, so that we can test against it.

Speaker 7

这听起来可能很可怕,因为会危及生命,但国防部内部确实有一部分人一直渴望进行实弹测试。

It may sound terrible because it puts life at risk, but there's a little part of the Department of Defense that always wants a live test Of course.

Speaker 7

针对敌人最强大的武器。

Against the enemy's best.

Speaker 7

或者针对敌方的武器装备。

Or against enemy armaments.

Speaker 7

因此,我认为我们可能正在与中国及其他国家对话,向全世界表明这是什么情况。

And so, I think we might be talking to China and other people here and letting the world know what this is.

Speaker 7

也许是在向全世界表明:你们打算就这么等下去吗?

And maybe letting the world know, you're going to wait this thing out?

Speaker 7

我不必使用爱国者导弹拦截系统。

I don't have to to use Patriot missile intercepts.

Speaker 7

我有其他可以使用的手段。

I've got other things I can use.

Speaker 7

我不太可能会耗尽拦截弹,而你们可能比我还先耗尽导弹。

I'm not gonna run out I may run out of intercept missiles before you run out of missiles.

Speaker 7

我不会耗尽拦截能力。

I will not run out of intercept capability.

Speaker 7

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

Speaker 5

亚当。

Adam.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,让我简单明了地分析一下。

I mean, let me just break this down, very simply.

Speaker 5

这根本不是一场公平的较量。

It's not even a fair fight.

Speaker 5

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 5

我的意思是,看看《华尔街日报》现在的封面报道。

I mean, look at the cover of what's going on The Wall Street Journal right now.

Speaker 5

他们基本上概述了伊朗正在做什么。

They basically outline what Iran is doing.

Speaker 5

他们基本上说德黑兰使用的战机可以追溯到越南战争时期。

They're basically saying Tehran is fighting with jets that date back to the Vietnam War.

Speaker 5

伊朗的老旧战机依靠拼凑的零件和创造力,但在空战中正逐渐失效。

They look forward with the scrounged parts of ingenuity, Iran's aging jets are fall are failing in dogfights.

Speaker 5

然后它提到,一位以色列飞行员驾驶着由美国制造的世界上最先进的战斗机之一,锁定并击落了一架伊朗战机。

And then it says talking about the Israeli pilot flying one of the most world's most advanced warplanes made The US made in The US, took aim and down an Iranian jet Five.

Speaker 5

轻松地将它击落,化为一团火球坠向地面。

Easily, sending it shrieking to the ground in a ball of fire.

Speaker 5

目标已摧毁,任务完成。

Target is down completed.

Speaker 5

伊朗正在派出一支老旧的空军。

Iran is sending a creaking air force.

Speaker 5

许多飞机是博物馆里的展品,靠拼凑的零件和顽强的毅力勉强飞行,根本无法与现代战机抗衡。

Many of the planes are museum pieces kept flying with scrounged parts and pluck that stand little chance against modern warplanes.

Speaker 5

那么,我们这里讨论的到底是什么?

So what are we talking about here?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

阿里,我们必须把那架飞机从博物馆里移走。

Ali, we have to remove that plane from the museum.

Speaker 3

它还能用吗?

Does it still work?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

把它搬进来。

Bring it in.

Speaker 9

不行。

No.

Speaker 9

不行。

No.

Speaker 9

我们去弄些砖头。

We'll get some bricks.

Speaker 3

那堵墙。

That wall.

Speaker 3

走吧。

Let's go.

Speaker 3

我们得把它和他们一起带走

We gotta take it with they

Speaker 5

在佛蒙特州的街头有这个。

have this on the streets of Vermont.

Speaker 5

十九世纪七十年代的技术,痛苦不堪。

Nineteen seventies technology Misery.

Speaker 5

带着七世纪的意识形态,重演越南战争——而美国、以色列和我们的盟友拥有有史以来最先进、令人难以置信的武器,更不用说一套不再与末日神权政权挂钩的更新信念体系,那个政权至今仍引用七世纪的教条。

With a seven century ideology, bringing back the Vietnam war where The United States and Israel and our allies have the most technologically up to date incredible weaponry we've ever seen, not to mention a updated belief system not tied to an apocalyptic, theocratic regime that's still citing seventh century beliefs.

Speaker 5

-哦。

-Oh.

Speaker 5

-根本没法比。

-It's not even close.

Speaker 5

这就像是,在今天的高中辩论赛中,一位获得耶鲁大学全额奖学金的辩论冠军,对阵一位连GED都没通过的高中辍学生。

It'd be like, Hey, in today's high school debate, we have the high school debate champion that has a full ride to Yale versus the high school dropout that just failed their GED.

Speaker 5

看看谁能赢这场对决。

Let's see who wins this fight.

Speaker 5

这根本没法比。

It's not even close.

Speaker 5

美国军队是这个世界有史以来最伟大的力量。

The American military is the greatest thing this world has ever seen.

Speaker 3

真的吗?

Really?

Speaker 6

我有个问题想问你们。

I have a I have a I a I have a question I want to ask you guys.

Speaker 6

起初我以为我们介入的原因是为了人民,是为了那场人民发起的革命,那些所谓的在街头丧生的四万人之类的。

Well, I I thought initially the reason that we went in there was because of the people, because of the revolution that the people were doing, the quote, unquote, 40,000 people that were killed in the streets and all that stuff.

Speaker 6

但现在听起来,这更像是为了摧毁他们的武器、系统和导弹发射装置。

But then it's more sounding like this is more about taking out their weapons and their systems and their missile launching.

Speaker 6

我真的希望他们……我们其实不知道。

I really hope are they I I we don't know.

Speaker 6

我们只能猜测。

We can only guess.

Speaker 6

目标是让人民摆脱这个政权,我完全同意。

The goal was for the people to be liberated from this regime, which I I agree with 100%.

Speaker 6

当这个邪恶政权消失时,世界将会变得更好。

There the world's gonna be a better place when that the evil regime is gone.

Speaker 6

但我希望人们能团结起来,弄清楚真相,因为当激光、导弹和炸弹的烟雾散去后,他们需要一个能正常运转的政府。

But I hope the people are getting together and trying to find out because once the smoke clears from the lasers and the missiles and the bombs, they need to have a running government.

Speaker 6

他们需要一个政府,我认为特朗普曾提到过有人会介入,因为在这片混乱和战争中,我希望他们不要失去焦点。

They need to have and I think Trump had said something about somebody coming in because with all this craziness, with all the war, let's I hope they're not losing focus.

Speaker 6

关键是人民。

It's the people.

Speaker 6

我原本以为,这是因为人们在街头死亡和抗争。

This this, I thought, was because the people were dying and fighting in the streets.

Speaker 6

现在看起来更像是,是的,我明白他们是在摧毁武器和整个领导层,但我希望人们能关注并聚焦于领导层的建设,因为一旦行动结束,总得有人来建立新的秩序。

It's kind of seeming more like, yeah, I understand they're taking out the weapons and and all their leadership, but I hope people are paying attention and focusing on the leadership because once it's done, somebody got somebody has to set up Adam.

Speaker 6

必须有一个人,或者举行选举,总得有个结果。

There has to be one guy, election, something has to happen.

Speaker 9

你明白我的意思吗?

You know what I'm saying?

Speaker 6

我觉得这是让

I think it's Let

Speaker 7

回答你的问题,这是政权崩溃。

answer your it's regime collapse.

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

这已经不再是政权更替了。

It's not regime change anymore.

Speaker 7

而是政权崩溃,还要消除——听听鲁比奥说了什么,要彻底摧毁他们的火箭以及重建能力。

Regime collapse and eliminating listen to what Rubio said, to eliminate their rockets and their ability to rebuild them.

Speaker 3

听好了。

Well, listen.

Speaker 3

我们,我不希望你们有些人担心,因为这是伊朗战斗机起飞拦截以色列F-35的真实画面。

We I don't wanna some of you guys are a lot of people are worried because this is actual footage of Iran's fighter just taking off to intercept Israel's after three fifty fives.

Speaker 3

而且很多人都在担心这件事。

And it's it's a a lot of people are worried about this.

Speaker 3

如果你想播放,点击一下。

If you wanna play this, click.

Speaker 3

好吧,罗布,你来吧。

Go ahead, Rob.

Speaker 5

在这里发生撞击。

Impact here.

Speaker 5

他们正沿着街道高速逼近。

This is they they're coming down the street hard.

Speaker 3

这是伊朗的。

Is Iranian.

Speaker 3

但看天空那里。

But look in the sky right there.

Speaker 3

即将起飞。

About to take off.

Speaker 3

小型喷气机。

SME jets.

Speaker 3

天哪。

Oh, man.

Speaker 5

我的天啊。

Oh my gosh.

Speaker 5

哦,不。

Oh, no.

Speaker 5

哦。

Oh.

Speaker 6

兄弟,他们输了。

Bro, they lost.

Speaker 6

结束了。

It's over.

Speaker 5

结束了。

It's over.

Speaker 5

难以置信。

Unbelievable.

Speaker 5

结束了,结束了。

It's It's over.

Speaker 3

听我说,我的意思是,你看,当我看到有人发给我这个时,我觉得挺搞笑的。

Listen, I mean, look, we're being funny when I saw that somebody send me.

Speaker 5

记得他们根本没有经济基础。

Remember they have no economy.

Speaker 7

你弄坏了,你就得买。

You break it, you buy it.

Speaker 7

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

但这确实挺搞笑的。

But it is funny.

Speaker 3

I

Speaker 5

得为这栋房子付钱。

have to pay for this house.

Speaker 3

这很有趣。

It is funny.

Speaker 5

他们太糟糕了。

They're horrible.

Speaker 5

Let

Speaker 3

我问个奇怪的问题,汤姆。

me ask a weird question, Tom.

Speaker 3

这现在是否给乌克兰提供了一个机会,可以说‘嘿’,还是乌克兰目前与俄罗斯处于暂停状态?

Does this give Ukraine an opportunity right now to say, Hey, or is Ukraine kind of on a pause with Russia?

Speaker 3

他们正在等待特朗普,看看他会做什么,因为你知道俄罗斯在2023年、2024年曾购买过沙希德无人机。

They're like waiting for Trump to see what he's going to be doing because you know Russia would buy the Shahids back in 'twenty three, 'twenty four.

Speaker 3

他们现在不再这么做了。

They no longer do.

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