特朗普的国情咨文与最高法院关税争议 | PBD #746

她没有撒谎。

She's not lying.

我认为我们应该制定一些指导方针，以免像我这样的人将来再做这种事。

I think we should have guidelines so people like, you know, me can't do this in the future.

但她也指出，总统这是五十步笑百步，因为加密货币领域有很多类似的问题可以指出来。

But she also made the point that, you know, the president sort of, you know, the pot calling the kettle black because there's a lot of things you could point out with cryptocurrency.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about that.

是的。

Yeah.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about that.

但这里是Pelosi追踪器，而且是由自动驾驶系统操作的，联合自动驾驶系统，允许你以她投资训练的相同方式投资。

But here, Pelosi Tracker, and it's by autopilot, joint autopilot, where they allow you to invest exactly the way she's investing in training.

事实上，汤姆，快速说一下。

A matter of fact, Tom, real quick.

你去年七月就测试过这个。

You you tested this last July.

对吧？

Right?

你能不能跟观众分享一下它是怎么做到的？

You you mind sharing with the audience how it's What

自动交易系统的作用是，按照佩洛西的交易情况，用固定金额进行完全相同的交易。

autopilot does is it makes trades for a set amount of money that it mirror exactly what's in Pelosi saying.

不。

No.

我希望我知道。

I wish I knew.

没有。

Didn't.

这个。

This.

这太有趣了。

This is so interesting.

所以我开了一个Robinhood账户，并存入了5万美元。

So I opened a Robinhood account, and I put $50,000 in it.

Autopilot是一家独立的公司。

Autopilot is a separate company.

我给了Autopilot权限，使用这5万美元，完全按照Nancy Pelosi根据所有她必须申报的论坛所披露的持仓方式操作。

I gave Autopilot permission with that 50,000 exactly the way Nancy Pelosi's ownership is according to all the forums she has to file.

每当Nancy Pelosi进行交易时，它就会跟着交易。

And it then trades out every time there's a trade with Nancy Pelosi.

每次有交易，它就会跟着交易。

Every time there's a trade trades out.

仅在第一个季度，我的收益就达到了17%。

It was up from just the first quarter that I was doing it like 17%.

而且收益还上涨了23%。

And it was up 23%.

现在它的表现已经超过标普500了。

And now it's beating the S and P.

有十亿美元的资金由像这样的人投资在个人账户中，比如Robinhood或嘉信理财账户。

And there is 1,000,000,000 that was invested by people like that in individual accounts like a Robin Hood or a Schwab account.

然后他们授权自动驾驶系统进行交易，这些人的资金加起来有十亿美元，而不是十亿人，所有这些人都参与其中。

And then they give autopilot permission to, well, trade on autopilot and a billion people and not a billion people, a billion dollars with all those people have been there.

这些人都赚了钱，你应该去看看相关的评论。

And those people have made money and you should see the commentary on it.

人们说，赚个十美元还不错，但这不是很荒谬吗？因为这正是南希·佩洛西一直在做的事。

That's like, hey, it was great to make about $10 on this, but isn't this kind of ridiculous because this is what Nancy Pelosi has been doing.

你知道，而我们其他人却只能眼睁睁看着自己的401(k)在疫情期间每年只涨4%左右。

You know, while all the rest of us are just watching our four zero one k's go 4% a year during COVID and things like that.

但这就是自动驾驶系统。

But that's autopilot.

她最终变得像乔·肯尼迪那样，乔·肯尼迪。

She's end up being like Joe Kennedy where Joe Kennedy.

他就是那个先进行内幕交易，然后成为证交会主席，接着又将内幕交易定为非法的人。

He's the one who did a bunch of insider trading then became the head of sec and then outlawed insider trading.

所以，你知道，国会即将禁止那些让他们致富的行为，因为他们已经从中获益了。

So, you know, congress is going to outlaw the thing that got them rich because they already benefited from it.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，一家公司采纳了这个想法，将人们的投资匹配起来，你可以这么做，并说：嘿，既然她这么操作，我就跟着她的投资组合来。

I mean, the fact that a company takes that idea and matches people's investments and you can do that and say, hey, if she's doing it, I'm gonna match what your portfolio is.

他们利用了自己掌握的信息，但这是合法的，对吧？

They're using the information that they have, but this is a legal thing Right.

这家公司这么做是因为，等等，如果我们做的是非法的事，那我们只是在复制她的投资罢了。

That this company is doing because like, wait a minute, if we're doing something illegal, we're just matching her investment.

你在13F表格上能看到这个，汤姆，你在哪个地方看到的？

You see it on the 13 which form do you see it on Tom that

对。

Yeah.

国会内部人士并不是说你可以直接看到每个人的投资。

There's a congressional insider is not You can literally see everyone's investment.

没错。

Correct.

你必须填写这些表格。

You have to fill out these forms.

是的。

Yeah.

你必须将你的经纪账户与之关联，以证明你本应拥有的盲信托没有越界。

You have to attach your brokerage accounts to it to show that the blind trust that you're supposed to have is not going outside the lines.

他们是否佩戴

Do they wear

日复一日。

day by day.

我的意思是，你是只知道她去年做了什么，对吧？

I mean, so like, or you just know what she did last year, right?

不，不，不，你会突然看到自动驾驶系统进行交易。

No, no, no, you will suddenly see autopilot make trades.

这个会被公开。

This goes out.

她进行了交易

She traded

在贝宝公布财报前几周就抛售了。

out of PayPal weeks before PayPal had the earnings thing.

因此，它保护了人们之前获得的利润，并根据持股情况重新调整了策略。

So it protected profits that people had previously had and then recalibrated according to the ownership.

她在贝宝出问题之前就退出了。

She got out of PayPal before PayPal had issues here.

所以这简直就是诺查丹玛斯南希。

So this is a Nostradamus Nancy.

但他们把创意的提出留给了资本家和企业家。

But they leave it to the capitalists and the entrepreneurs to come up with an idea.

让我先说这个，然后我们再谈经济。

Let me get to this one here and then we can get into economy.

所以，再次回应昨晚的情况。

So again, reacting to last night.

当一切都在发生的时候。

While everything is going on.

对吧？

Right?

肯尼斯提到，民主党人现在正在努力理清自己接下来的方向。

Know, Kenneth said something about Democrats figuring themselves out right now as they're going through this next.

所以我是在复述你之前说的话。

So I'm paraphrasing what you said earlier.

但CNN正在讨论他们的领先候选人，哈里·恩顿称这是一场闹剧。

But here's CNN talking about who is their leading candidate, and Harry Enton calls it a clown show.

罗布，你请说。

Go ahead, Rob.

他们都在参选，目前民主党这边简直就像一辆马戏团汽车。

They're all running, and this is just a downright clown car at this point on the Democratic side.

我的意思是，你看看这里。

I mean, just take a look here.

2028年民主党候选人的首选人物。

Top choices for the 2028 Dempraise nominee.

你有一个领先者，但其实并没有明确的领先者。

You have a leader, but it's not really a clear leader.

他们的支持率都在一个很接近的范围内。

It's within the margin area.

纽森支持率为19%，前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯为18%，考虑到她上次就是候选人，这个数字相当弱。

Have Newsom at 19%, you have former vice president Kamala Harris at 18%, quite a weak number for her given that, of course, she was the nominee the last time around.

皮特·布蒂吉格当然之前参选过，现在支持率是13%。

Pete Buttigieg, of course, has run before 13%.

亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯支持率为12%。

Alexandre Ocasio Cortez at 12%.

这简直就是一个马戏团车队。

This is just a total clown car.

这完全是一团糟。

It is a total mess.

在民主党这边，目前还没有明确的领先者。

There is no clear front runner at this particular point on the Democratic side.

谁知道三年后谁会成为候选人呢。

Who the heck knows who the nominee is gonna be in three two years.

这一直是

It is it's been

我们很久没遇到过这样的民主党竞选了。

a long time since we've had a Democratic race like this.

是的。

Yeah.

确实很久没这样了。

It has been a long time.

对于民主党来说，在这个阶段还没有一个明确的领先者，这非常不寻常。

This is very unusual for the Democratic side to not have a clear front runner at this point.

全国早期民调领先者至少要达到25%。

National early poll leader at at least 25.

看看这个。

Look at this.

今年，我们面对的是一个巨大的问号。

This year, we get the giant question mark.

没有人。

No one.

没有人。

No one.

没有人。

No one.

2020年没有现任总统参选时，当时是乔·拜登领先；希拉里·克林顿在8月也达到过这个水平，而阿尔·戈尔在2002年和2004年同期也至少有25%的支持率。你必须追溯到非常久远的过去——久到我还没上小学，甚至还没上幼儿园——回到1992年。

In 2020 when there was no incumbent, it was Joe Biden who was there, Hillary Clinton in both August, and Al Gore in both 02/2004 at this point were at least at 25% of the early you have to go all the way back, all the way back from when I wasn't even in elementary school yet, not even in pre k yet, to 1992.

上一个没有明确领先者的周期就是那次。

That was the last cycle in which there was no clear front runner.

1909年

1909

非常

very

很快。

soon.

这么说的话。

Said that way.

他一直等到了现在，

He's waited since,

像两百年前一样。

like, two hundred years ago.

医生。

Doctor.

毛收入。

Gross primary.

是的。

Yeah.

昨天还没用手机的时候。

Back before phone yesterday.

从那一年开始。

Since the year out.

那么新闻怎么样？

So what about news?

所以什么

So what

英国人和市场对他的胜算怎么看？

are the British and markets saying his odds are?

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以在我看来。

So it seems to me that.

是的。

Yeah.

当你看到这一点时，这确实很惊人。

So that's pretty wild when you see that.

但这有道理吗？

Does that kind of make sense though?

你觉得这有道理吗？

Do you think that kind of makes sense?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，在上一次选举中，民主党内部爆发了一场关于进步派和中间左派的内战。

I mean, there's a civil war in the democratic party was going on in the last election between the progressives and the center left.

现在进步派充满了能量，比如纽约的马姆达尼和AOC。

And the progressives have all the energy right now, Mamdani in New York, AOC.

对于民主党内更具有选举竞争力的人而言，想要脱颖而出非常困难。

And it's very hard for someone who's more electable to come out in the Democratic Party.

我的意思是，共和党内部也存在内战，但那要一边倒得多。

I mean, there's a war on in the Republican Party too, but it's much more one-sided.

但在民主党内部，我认为进步派显然占据了上风。

But in the Democratic Party, I mean, it's sort of I think the progressives are clearly on top.

我觉得会是进步派的候选人，你知道的，一个相当左倾的人。

I think it's going to be a progressive candidate, you know, somebody pretty left leaning.

但谁知道呢？

But who knows?

顺便说一下，汤姆，肯尼思说的这一点非常好。

By by the way, that's actually a very good point, Tom, the way Kenneth is saying.

因为如果你看看现在左翼的明星人物，只有两个名字。

Because if you see right now who are the superstars of the left today, two names.

谁是明星人物？

Who are the superstars?

蒙达尼和AOC。

Mondani and AOC.

你总能看到他们在合作。

And you keep seeing them collaborating.

甚至他们昨天发布的视频，讲的是在纽约，西班牙语裔非法移民如何免费获得托儿服务，以及如何申请。

Even the video they made yesterday about how in Spanish illegal immigrants you can get childcare free in New York and here's how to get it.

我不知道你有没有看过那个片段，但有趣的是，他们年轻、帅气、有魅力、富有感染力，至少他们提出了自己的观点。

I don't know if you saw that But clip or you know what's interesting is young, good looking, charming, charismatic, and they at least have ideas they're presenting.

当然，这些都是社会主义理念。

Of course, they're socialist ideas.

当然，其中可能有一些糟糕的想法。

Of course, there may be bad ideas.

当然，历史表明这些理念行不通。

Of course, history says these ideas don't work.

但他们是在提出观点。

But they're pitching ideas.

有两个不同的群体。

There's there's two different communities.

其中一个只是坐在那里说，他很邪恶。

One is sitting there saying, he's evil.

他很邪恶。

He's evil.

他很邪恶。

He's evil.

另一个群体则说，我们应该对富人加税。

The other one is saying, let's raise taxes on the rich.

并给非法移民提供免费福利。

And let's give free benefits to illegal immigrants.

你信不信，这些人比那些人获得了更多支持。

Believe it or not, these guys are getting more momentum than these guys.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

因为这里根本没有想法。

Because there is no ideas here.

只是在指责他们。

It's just calling them out.

如果我们继续往下看，这很有趣。

And it's interesting if we go then.

顺便问一下，我有个疯狂的问题要问你们。

By the way, here's a crazy question for you guys.

你知道，肯尼斯，你早在1992年就在场了。

Know, Kenneth, you were around back in 1992.

1992年的时候我已经不是年轻人了。

I wasn't a young man already in 1992.

我当时

I was

他说话的方式，但当你看这样的事情时，看到他们制造的势头，没人会想到，如果两年前或三年前我告诉你，一个彻底的社会主义者，几乎就是共产主义者，说话却像共产主义者。

about the way he said it But for you when you watch something like this, and you see the momentum that they're creating, nobody thought If I told you two years ago or three years ago, a full on socialist, one step away from a communist, speaks like a communist.

他说话的样子，就好像他读过六七次甚至八次《共产党宣言》一样。

He speaks as if he's read the communist manifesto six, seven, eight times.

他是个穆斯林，而在纽约市——资本主义的首都，资本主义的总部，对吧？

And he's a Muslim, and in New York City, in the capital of capitalism, in the headquarters of capitalism, right?

这个世界金融中心已经取代了伦敦，一个社会主义的穆斯林进步人士竟然会成为市长。

Financial capital of the world that took over London, that a socialist Muslim progressive guy is gonna become the mayor.

人们会说，你疯了。

People would have said, you're out of your mind.

所以如果真是这样，你觉得说‘也许在纽约能做到这一点’很疯狂吗？

So if that's the case, do you think it's that crazy to say, maybe you can do that in New York.

如果在纽约市能做到，也许在国家层面，像AOC这样的人也能做到。

If you can do that in New York City, maybe you can do that at the national level with somebody like an AOC.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我一直在对世界各地那些担心特朗普式人物连任的人说。

I mean, I've been saying to people all over the world, who are sort of worried about, the reelection of a Trump like figure.

他们对这件事感到非常恐惧。

They're so scared about that.

我会说，等你们看到像马曼尼这样的人在美国当选时，才会明白那会带来什么。

I say, wait till you see the election of a Mamdani like person, you know, in The United States, what that's gonna bring.

我的意思是，这种巨大的转变、不确定性，以及我们国家如此分裂，可能会从一个极端直接跳到另一个极端。

I mean, the the incredible swing, the uncertainty, the fact that you could you know, our country's so far apart and you could swing from one to the other.

但没错，马曼尼确实长得英俊、有魅力，懂得如何运用社交媒体，这毫无疑问。

But yeah, no, Mamdani is absolutely good looking, charming, knows how to use social media, no question about it.

我身边也有一些朋友，虽然他们立场偏左，但也挺喜欢他。

And I do have my sort of, okay, they're very left leaning, but good friends in New York who kinda like him.

因为他们说，前两位都是傻瓜，至少马曼尼看起来不像个傻瓜，他明显显得很有思想，尽管在经济上可能不够通晓。

Because basically they said the last two guys were idiots, and so at least he doesn't seem like an idiot, which he clearly seems thoughtful, even if not literate economically.

所以，咱们走着瞧吧。

So, you know, we'll we'll we'll we'll we'll see.

但我不知道他在纽约会怎么样，因为我知道他继承了这一切开支和财政问题。

But I don't know how he's gonna do in New York because I've been it's not doing that he inherited all this spending, all these fiscal problems.

如果他像计划的那样对富人增税，只会把他们赶走，结果反而亏钱。

And if he raises taxes on the wealthy, like he wants to, he's just gonna chase them out and it's gonna lose money.

这可能会让他感觉良好，但实际会亏钱。

It's gonna make him feel good, but it's gonna lose money.

谁将付出最大的代价？

Who's gonna pay the biggest price?

你一直研究什么有效、什么无效，你就是在这个领域里的人。

You're somebody that you've been in the space of studying what works, what doesn't work.

这不就是你的世界吗？

This is your world, right?

你在麻省理工学院获得经济学博士学位，曾担任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家。

PhD MIT in economics, chief economist at IMF.

你的世界就是研究什么有效、什么无效，对吧？

Your world is to study what works, what doesn't work, right?

当你观察纽约的情况以及提高财富税的想法时，纽约和加利福尼亚正在考虑这一点。

When you look at what's going on with New York and the idea of raising wealth taxes, New York and California, are thinking about it.

要意识到这些人会离开，需要多少常识？

How much common sense does one need to realize they're going to leave?

亿万富翁们会离开。

The billionaires are going to leave.

要意识到这一点，需要多少常识？

How much common sense does it take to realize that?

我告诉你，我有一些很好的朋友。

I tell you, I have good friends.

他们在纽约非常聪明。

They're very smart in New York.

我坐下来和他们共进晚餐，跟他们这么说，他们却说，我不知道有谁要离开。

I sit down, I have dinner with, and I say that, and they say, I don't know anyone who's leaving.

而且

And

晚餐时其他人会说，等一下。

somebody else at the dinner will say, wait a second.

统计数据表明很多人正在离开，但他们却说，我的朋友一个都没走。

The statistics say a lot of people are leaving, and they'll say, well, none of my friends are leaving.

我不会走。

I'm not going to leave.

我愿意多缴税。

I'll pay more taxes.

我的意思是，我不确定。

I mean, I don't know.

但毫无疑问，你提到的这些明智的人。

But for sure These are the other sensible

就是正在这么说的那些人。

people you're talking about that are saying this.

我的意思是，他们来自各行各业，你知道的？

Well, I mean, they're from all walks of life, you know?

但确实，你也得看看纽约和加利福尼亚的支出方面。

But yeah, I mean, you got to look at the spending side in New York and California too.

尤其是纽约，我知道，它需要审视支出这一面。

But particularly New York, I understand, needs to look at that side of the equation.

我的意思是，蒙达尼的观点中有一种虚无主义，认为我们让一切免费。

I mean, he it's there's sort of, I don't know, nihilism in the Mondani view that we make everything free.

1%的人来支付所有费用，然后让一切免费，但这是一种选择。

The 1% can pay for everything and you can make everything free, but it's a choice.

如果你想这么做，就得让每个人都缴税。

You got to have everybody pay taxes if you want to do that.

是的。

Yeah.

我不认为这会奏效。

And I don't think that's going to work.

而且你已经开始看到他说要提高房产税，他到底说了多少？

And you're starting to see him saying he's going to raise property tax to what did he say?

百分之九还是百分之十？

Nine or 10%?

当普通老百姓出来问的时候，你会说你在说什么？

And at the average Joe comes on and saying, what are you talking about?

我以为你是要针对富人的。

I thought you're going go after the wealthy.

现在你却要针对拉uss了。

Now you're going after Russ.

你不能这么做。

You can't do something like this.

也许你不会失去亿万富翁。

Now you may not lose the billionaires.

你可能会失去的，不一定是纽约的上层阶级，而是一些年收入20万美元、养家糊口的小企业主。

You may lose, not necessarily the upper class in New York, but some of the guys that are family running small businesses making $200,000 a year, taking care of their wife and kids.

你甚至可能会失去那些坐在那里说，我要去看看其他选择的人。

You may even lose those guys that are gonna sit there and say, I'm gonna go look at my options.

你现在看到加利福尼亚人正在搬往内华达州，对吧？

You're seeing Californians right now going to Nevada, right?

因为去那里没有州税。

Because you go there, no state taxes.

这是另一个相对友好的地方。

Another one of those somewhat pro friendly.

马克·沃尔伯格在那里买了一处房产。

Mark Wahlberg bought a place there.

我认为马克·沃尔伯格在这里的戴尔雷海滩也买了一处房产。

Mark Wahlberg bought a place here, I believe somewhere in Delray.

你听说帕兰提尔公司要把总部迁到迈阿密了吧。

You now heard Palantir's moving their headquarters to Miami.

你看到了帕兰提尔，看到了城堡，也看到了人们和公司纷纷迁往棕榈滩的情况。

You saw Griffin, you saw Citadel, you saw what's going on with folks, with companies moving to Palm Beach.

谁会想到人们会搬去棕榈滩呢？

Who would have thought people would have moved to Palm Beach?

想想这些人才。

Think about the talent.

你在棕榈滩雇佣的普通人，虽然靠近东部，但更接近水边或另一边，那里的年龄结构是怎样的？

The average person you're hiring in Palm Beach depends on East, but closer to the water or the other side, What is the age there?

但人们说，我还是要去棕榈滩，在那里建立我的事业。

But people are saying, oh, I'm still gonna go to Palm Beach and build my business there.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我不知道这两个州会发生什么。

I don't know what's gonna happen with these two states.

我不知道他们是故意的，还是无意的。

I don't know if they're doing it intentionally or not.

但现实是，这些政策将会把你的企业创造者和投资者推走。

But the reality of it is these are policies that's gonna push your job creators and investors out.

最终会伤害这些城市中的普通美国人。

And it ends up hurting middle Americans in those cities.

但让我们谈谈关税。

But let's talk about tariffs.

让我们谈谈关税。

Let's talk about tariffs.

联邦快递起诉美国政府，要求全额退还特朗普关税费用。

So FedEx sues the US government seeking full refund over Trump's tariffs.

罗布，如果你有那段视频，我们从那里开始吧，因为我们最初听到的消息是联邦快递，但事情并没结束在联邦快递。

Rob, if you got that clip, let's start off with that because the first story we heard was, you know, FedEx, but it didn't end with FedEx.

还有更多公司陆续曝光出来。

There's many more names that are coming out.

说吧，罗布。

Go ahead, Rob.

联邦快递在最高法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税非法后几天，就起诉了特朗普政府。

FedEx is suing the Trump administration just days after the Supreme Court ruled most of his tariffs are illegal.

该公司要求全额退还其根据关税政策向政府支付的所有款项。

The company is asking for a full refund of all the payments it made to the government under its tariff policies.

让我们连线市场观察局首席记者罗布·施罗德。

Let's go live to Market Watch Bureau chief Rob Schroeder.

罗布，感谢你今天抽出时间。

Rob, thank you for your time today.

那么，对于寻求退款的公司来说，这个流程是怎样的？会是什么样子？

So what is the procedure here looking what is it gonna look like for companies who are seeking to get a refund?

我们了解这个流程吗？

Do we even know that?

关于这一切将如何运作，有明确的规定吗？

Is the rule out for how all of this is gonna work?

是的。

Yeah.

你好，穆布特。

Hi, Mubut.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

事实上，正如你所提到的，联邦快递是首批采取行动的公司之一，就在上周最高法院做出了一项极具震撼力的裁决，驳回了特朗普总统用于征收关税的多项关税措施。

So indeed, FedEx, as you mentioned, is one of the first out of the gate here, after the Supreme Court's really, quite earth shaking decision last week to to deny, or to really reject several of president Trump's tariffs that he had used, to to, collect duties.

因此，以联邦快递为例，目前他们正向国际贸易法院提起诉讼，希望获得退款。

So what's happening now in the case of FedEx, for example, is they're going to what's called the, the Court of International Trade against the Trump administration in hopes, in in in desires that they get a refund.

现在，这一过程预计将非常漫长，正如总统本人所暗示的，可能需要数年时间。

Now this promises to be quite a long process as the president himself suggested, taking as many years

你现在可以暂停一下。

You can pause it right now.

五年。

Five years.

这个过程可能长达五年。

It could take as as long as five years.

可能需要两年、三年，或者五年。

It could take two years, three years, five years.

几天前，凯文·奥利里曾谈到这个问题有多棘手。

Kevin O'Leary was talking about the other day how problematic it is.

我先给你们一些数据，然后肯尼斯，我先问你。

I'll give you guys some numbers here and then Kenneth, I'll come to you first.

我们现在看的数字是1750亿美元。

You got a $175,000,000,000 right now is what we're looking at.

欧莱雅、戴森、普拉达，还有其他几家公司，以及好市多、露华浓，这些企业在裁决后都提起了诉讼，总共有超过一千家进口商提交了类似的退款申请，总额约为1750亿美元。

L'Oreal, Dyson, I think Prada, couple other companies, Costco, Revlon are also those that filed suits before over a thousand importers, total filed similar refund claims post ruling, spanning large corporations and smaller importers for a total about a $175,000,000,000.

你觉得这里会发生什么，肯尼斯？

What what do you think is gonna happen here, Kenneth?

首先，我认为最重要的是，大多数公司都能拿回他们的钱，因为如果这不是合法的关税，那么美国政府就必须退还。

Well, first of all, I think it's important that most of them do get their money back that, you know, if this wasn't a legal tariff, then The United States has to pay it back.

另一方面，1750亿美元确实是一大笔钱，但在美国预算的背景下，这并不算什么。

On the other hand, a $175,000,000,000, that's a lot of money, but not in the context of The US budget.

这在整体开支中简直微不足道。

It's kind of like chump change in terms of things.

我敢肯定，总统和他的经济顾问们早就知道这种情况可能发生。

And I'm sure the president and his economic advisors knew this might happen.

他们知道可能需要退还这些钱，并通过其他方式弥补，视其为战略的附带损害。

They knew they might have to pay it back and fill it in other ways and view it as collateral damage for their strategy.

我也想说，关于关税的这些争议太多了。

I I also wanna say that, you know, there's all this drama over tariffs.

如果全世界都征收15%的关税，说实话，经济学家并不支持这种做法。

If you had 15% tariffs all over the world, I mean, we economists don't favor that.

这会带来很多成本。

There'd be a lot of costs.

我认为这不会是高效的做法。

I don't think it would be efficient.

这并不是世界末日。

It's not the end of the world.

我的意思是，关税带来的许多戏剧性影响，其实源于我们对情况一无所知。

I mean, a lot of the dramatic effects of tariffs come from, we don't know what's going on.

当我们迎来解放日时，问题根本不在关税上。

When we had liberation day, the problem wasn't the tariffs.

问题在于，你知道，他有一张根本说不通的图表，人们都在想，天哪，他好像已经按下了扳机。

The problem was, you know, he had this chart that didn't really make sense and people are thinking, oh my God, you know, he's got his finger on the trigger.

你知道，他在想什么？

You know, what's he thinking?

但你知道，关税本身并不是问题。

But, you know, the tariffs themselves are not the issue.

关键是获得某种确定性。

It's getting some certainty.

而我们现在没有这种确定性，因为我们不知道什么会有效。

And we we don't have it now because we don't know what will work.

我们也不知道什么不会有效。

We don't know what won't work.

我们曾经有过这么多协议。

We had all these deals.

但现在突然间，英国的关税是10%。

And now suddenly, I mean, The UK had 10%.

现在是15%。

Now it's 15%.

他们说，这到底是怎么回事？

And they say, what gives?

当然，这里有很多事情正在发生。

And of course, the you know, there there are many things, playing out here.

但归根结底，这更多是关于权力的争夺，而不是单纯某个税收问题。

But, at the end of at the end of the day, this is more about a fight for power than it is specifically about some tax.

汤姆，你这边进展如何？

Tom, where are you at with this?

所以，人们喜欢说，哦，这些关税是非法的。

So, you know, people like to say, oh, the tariffs were illegal.

关税本身并不非法，但CBS却称这些关税是非法的。

The tariffs themselves were not illegal, and CBS is calling the tariffs illegal.

最高法院非常狭义地指出——别让我搞错——总统没有权力实施这些措施，因为他需要获得国会的批准。

What the supreme court said very narrowly, keep me honest here, was the president did not have the authority to put those things in place because he needed to get permission from congress.

这些并不是非法或暗中勒索。

These were not like illegal or backdoor extortion.

这就像一百年来关税被使用的方式一样，是正常的谈判。

This was normal negotiation the way tariffs have been used for a hundred years.

你可以争论关税是好是坏。

And you could debate whether tariffs are good or bad.

这些关税并没有像预测的那样引发失控的通货膨胀。

These tariffs did not create runaway inflation as predicted.

市场之所以平静下来，是因为正如你所指出的，而且你说得对，市场在解放日缺乏确定性，而正如人们所说，市场在4月2日彻底崩溃了，但随后市场又恢复了。

The market calmed down because as you pointed out, and you're correct, the market didn't have certainty on Liberation Day, and the market, as they say, freaked the f out on April 2, but then the market came back.

所以这些关税并不违法。

So these tariffs are not illegal.

总统没有获得国会的许可，但如果国会明天一早聚集起来，帕特，仅仅宣布：我们正式批准总统实施并投票通过的这些关税。

President didn't have permission from congress, But if congress got together tomorrow morning, Pat, and simply stated, we hereby ratify the tariffs as implemented by the president and voted.

这一简单的投票将追溯性地向全世界表明：我们所有人此刻站在一起。

That simple vote would retroactively tell the whole world, hey, we're all together here.

我们支持总统，你最好处理好这些事，你之前也和我们谈过贸易协议。

We're behind the president and you better deal with these and you've negotiated trade deals with us.

所以，你知道，那个和你谈判的人，还有惠特科夫、贝松、鲁比奥，以及所有参与的人。

So, you know, the guy that's negotiating with you and Whitcove and Besson and Rubio and everybody that was involved.

嘿，我们支持我们的领导层，去处理吧。

Hey, we're behind our leadership deal with it.

帕特，他们只需要这么做就行了。

That's all they have to do Pat.

美国国会投票通过一项决议，声明我们在此追溯批准，认可当前实施的关税。

A vote by the US Congress that says we hereby retroactively ratify that we approve the tariffs as as enforced as they are today.

就在这里。

Here.

就这样。

There you go.

是的。

Yeah.

问题是，这会发生吗？

The question is, will that happen?

不会。

No.

这不会发生，因为这完全不是特朗普的风格。

That's not gonna happen because it's anything but Trump.

当然。

Of course.

所以，对我来说，这个问题是个循环。

So so the so the problem, To me, it's a circle.

宪法防止独裁者上台并随意做任何他们想做的事。

The constitution protects against a dictator coming in and choosing to do everything they wanna do.

那不是特朗普。

That's not Trump.

我支持特朗普在这方面的做法，不仅仅是因为它也对我们造成了负面影响。

I support what Trump was doing with this, and not because it affected us negatively as well.

我们与许多这些国家有产品往来，我们频繁地从这些国家采购商品。

We we buy products from many of these countries that we go back and forth from.

我们现在就在意大利，从事鞋类和时尚行业的业务。

We're right now in Italy, and we are in the shoe business and the fashion business.

所以我们正在应对必须购买的关税，在很多情况下成本都由我们承担。

So we're dealing with the tariffs that you have to buy, and we eat the cost in many cases.

但对我来说，这更多是关于中国将要采取什么行动。

But for me, it was more about what China was going to do.

你看这里，在特朗普峰会前关税政策逆转后，习近平获得了筹码。

And you see here Xi gains leverage before Trump's summit after tariff reversal.

彭博社写了那篇文章。

Bloomberg writes that article.

你不认为习近平现在知道自己有筹码了吗？

You don't think Xi knows he got the leverage now?

你不认为这些国家现在都坐视不理吗？

You don't think these countries now sit there?

马克龙要求特朗普取消对欧洲官员的制裁。

Macron asks Trump to lift sanctions on European officials.

对吧？

Right?

美国敦促合作伙伴更好履行关税协议，因为特朗普正在重新调整策略。

US tells partners to you better honor tariff deals as Trump regroups.

即使在昨天的国情咨文中，他也提到，我们正在沟通的大多数国家仍愿意遵守我们达成的协议。

Even yesterday, he talked about it in the state of the union when he said most of the countries we're speaking to are still willing to go with the agreements we made.

意思是，尽管最高法院裁定对我们不利，他们仍愿意以这种方式与我们谈判。

Meaning, even though supreme court ruled against us, they're still willing to negotiate with us in that way.

所以他需要这种恐惧。

So he needs that fear.

一个领导者需要应对三件不同的事情。

A leader has three different things that you're dealing with.

尊重、亲和力和恐惧。

Respect, likability, and fear.

好的。

Okay.

所以是亲和力。

So likability.

他在谈判时往往很讨人喜欢，很有魅力。

He tends to be likable when he's negotiating his charming.

就像你之前提到的。

Like you talked about earlier.

对吧？

Right?

尊重。

Respect.

我们确实有一些尊重。

We have some of that respect.

你需要一点恐惧感。

You need a little bit of the fear.

没人害怕拜登。

Nobody feared Biden.

你谈判时，也没人害怕奥巴马。

Nobody feared Obama when you were negotiating.

你并不害怕这些人。

You didn't fear these guys.

我们需要一点恐惧感。

We need a little bit of fear.

美国很久没有让人感到畏惧了。

America hasn't been feared in a long time.

我们一直没有出现这样的人。

We haven't had somebody that comes in.

我最担心的是中国。

And my biggest concern was China.

所以我挺喜欢这个点在这里，但后来又删了。

So I kind of liked that this was here, but then it was out.

昨天这事儿太重要了，罗布，如果你想要播放总统进场时走过艾米·科尼·巴雷特的那段视频的话。

And it was so important that yesterday, Rob, if you wanna play the clip when the president was coming in, and how he walked past Amy Coney Barrett.

罗布，如果你想要播放那段视频的话。

Rob, if you wanna play that clip.

不是这一段。

This is not the one.

是另一段。

It's the other one.

我给你发了两个视频片段。

I sent you two of the clips.

是的。

Yeah.

我刚才给你发了条短信。

I texted to you a minute ago.

如果你看看我刚发给你的那段视频，罗布，只要检查一下你的短信，我直接发给了你的短信。

If you look at the clip I just sent you, Rob, if you just check your text, I texted you directly to your text.

就在那儿。

Right there.

大家看好了。

Watch this folks.

继续吧。

Go ahead.

明白了吗？

Okay?

所以一个一个来。

So one by one.

我们刚刚看到总统显然与首席大法官握了手。

We just saw the president obviously shake the chief justice's hand.

那是大法官埃琳娜·卡根、布雷特·卡瓦诺和艾米·科尼·巴雷特。

There's justice Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett.

当然，他选择了艾米·科尼·巴雷特担任大法官。

Of course, he chose Amy Coney Barrett for the bench.

她就是那位没有投票支持他、也没有在那里与他握手的法官，虽然她与首席大法官有过互动，但之后没有与其他任何一位法官互动。

She was one of the justices who did not vote in his favor and did not shake her hand there, did interact with the chief justice, but then with none of the other justices.

还有约翰·卡尔，今天这个问题是提给总统的。

And John Karl, this was a question for the president today.

显然，他不希望任何人

Obviously, didn't want anyone

提问

to ask

向我们提出任何问题。

for any answer to us.

你对此怎么看？

What do you think about that?

但它

But it

对我们来说是很清楚的。

was clear to us.

你可以现在暂停一下。

You can pause it right.

你对此有什么看法？

What do you think about that?

我的意思是，我认为汤姆说得对，最高法院的裁决是正确的，问题不在于关税本身非法，而在于程序违法。

Well, mean, I think Tom had it right that the supreme court ruling was correct that it wasn't that tariffs are illegal, it was that the procedure was illegal.

我感觉特朗普和他的团队早就预料到会有这样的结果。

And I have a feeling Trump and his people knew this was coming all the time.

这项裁决意味着他不能再像以前那样随意使用关税手段了，而他其实是个不错的谈判者，有时也能有效利用这一点。

What this ruling has meant has been that he can't use it as capriciously as he's been doing, which he's a good negotiator and sometimes uses it effectively.

另一方面，我有一些经营小企业的朋友。

On the other hand, I have friends who run small businesses.

这对他们来说非常艰难，因为不仅有关税，而且你不知道接下来会发生什么，此外，作为小企业主，如果你从事进口业务，还会面临很多行政成本。

It has been brutal on them because not only are there the tariffs and you don't know what's coming, but there are actually a lot of costs, administrative costs if you're a small business, if you're importing.

这不仅仅是支付20%的关税，还有许多其他费用，比如联邦快递等公司收取的费用，因为他们现在必须处理大量以前不需要做的文书工作。

It's not just that you're paying the 20%, but there are all these other fees that places like FedEx and others are charging because they have to do all this paperwork that they didn't have to do before.

所以我认为，有一个方面还没有得到足够讨论，那就是这对小企业来说有多艰难。

So I think, I think a thing that hasn't been talked about enough is how tough this has been on small businesses.

这种不确定性，也许对整体有利，但你知道，这并不是没有代价的。

This uncertainty, maybe it's for the larger good, but you know, it's not been painless.

是的，这确实有道理。

Yeah, there there is something to that.

我认为最理想的做法是为规模小于一定标准的小企业免除关税。

And I think maybe optimal idea would be to exempt small businesses small businesses under a certain size.

但我认为最高法院的这一做法太过分了。

But I think I think that this is outrageous by the supreme court.

我认为自宪法制定以来，最高法院的权力已经膨胀得太多了。

I think the supreme court has acquired too much power since the constitution was created.

而且你知道，他们把这看作是一个经济问题，但我认为这关乎国家安全。

And the you know, they look at this like an economic thing, but I think it's a matter of national security.

比如，罗布，如果你能调出我发给你的那张图，就会看到，无论是半导体、先进芯片、航空航天，还是稀土开采和提炼，美国的产量还不到这些领域的10%。

Like, Rob, if you could pull up the picture I sent you, these things that, you know, whether it's semiconductors, you know, advanced chips, aerospace, rare earth mining, rare earth refining, less than 10% of those things are manufactured in The US.

如果这还不是国家安全问题，那我真不知道什么才是了。

So if that's not a matter of national security, I don't know what it is.

而关税的主要目标，如果不是众多目标之一的话，就是把这些产业带回美国本土生产，因为不可能与一个用奴隶工资生产商品的国家竞争——显然，在其他国家制造再运到这里会便宜得多。

And the the primary goal, if not one of the many goals of the tariffs is to get those things back to The US to be produced in The US because it's impossible to compete with a country that pays slave wages to produce items because obviously, the it's gonna be cheaper to, you know, have have manufactured in different country and brought over here.

所以我甚至觉得关税措施还不够有力来实现这一目标，但它们至少是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。

So I didn't even think the tariffs were a strong enough measure to enforce that, but they were a step in the right direction.

那么，我们该如何解决这个问题呢？

So, you know, how do we solve for that?

我们该如何应对被第三世界国家或像中国这样的国家低价倾销的问题？它们生产同类产品的成本只有我们的几分之一，而这些产品又关乎我们的国家安全——这正是我认为最高法院的裁决是错误的原因。

How do we solve for being undersold by, know, third world countries or or countries like China who could produce something for a fraction of what we could produce it for and when they're critical to our national security, which is why I think it is a false ruling by the Supreme Court.

这确实是国家安全问题。

It is a matter of national security.

这不仅仅是经济问题。

It's not just an economic matter.

我认为很多人其实也投票支持了这一点。

I I I and I think a lot of people also voted for that.

对吧？

Right?

初衷是把产业带回这里。

The the idea was to bring it here.

让我们想办法把产业带回这里。

Let's find a way to bring it here.

但我觉得，布兰登，回顾一下他昨天说了什么？

But I think, Brandon, to go through that what did he say yesterday?

还记得那个18这个数字吗？

Remember the 18 number?

在拜登任内，外国投资流入不到一万亿美元，远低于一万亿美元。

Under Biden, the investments of foreign investment coming in was less than a trillion dollars and a lot less than a trillion dollars.

但为什么现在承诺的外国投资超过了18.5万亿美元，远超18万亿美元？

But why have gotten the commitment over 18 and a half trillion dollars and a lot more than $18,000,000,000,000 of foreign investment coming in here?

好的。

Okay.

这很好。

That's good.

挑战在于美国人不会立刻感受到。

The challenge is America's not gonna feel that right away.

是的。

No.

这18万亿美元需要多长时间才能实现？

That 18,000,000,000,000 is gonna take how long?

是的，不会只用十年。

Yeah, don't A decade.

十年、十五年，还是二十年？

Ten years, fifteen years, twenty years?

买地、建厂、雇人。

Buy the land, build the factory, hire the people.

这需要一段时间。

It takes a minute.

所以问题在于，这些想法虽然不错，但要通过关税来遏制中国和其他一些国家，这个过程带来的痛苦无法在十三个月内解决。

So the problem is some of these ideas that are good ideas and the pain to go through the tariffs of making sure you put China in check, put some of these other countries in check, you can't fix that in thirteen months.

是的。

Yeah.

你说过，我们不知道这是否会有效。

And you said, we don't know if it's gonna work or not.

对吧？

Right?

但这种做法相当于对所有人开战。

But it was sort of a war on everyone.

我的意思是，我完全支持国家安全，也认同要关注我们所使用的药品这类问题。

I mean, so I'm all for national security and thinking about just things like the drugs that we use.

我们在疫情期间才发现，我们从印度和中国进口了所有东西。

We found that out in the pandemic, we were importing everything from India and China.

我们对此毫无掌控力。

We didn't have control over it.

所以有些事情关乎国家安全，但葡萄酒是国家安全吗？每件事都是国家安全吗？

So there are things which are national security, but it, you know, is wine national security, you know, is everything national security?

我认为，如果他通过其他机制来使用这些手段，他可以针对这些特定问题。

And I think, you know, if he uses them under these other mechanisms, he can target those things.

但问题是，作为谈判者，他只是想要自由行事，随心所欲。

But the trouble is as a negotiator, he just wanted free form to do whatever he wanted.

如果他不喜欢巴西把博索纳罗关进监狱，或者不喜欢英国的言论自由法，他就会采取行动。

If he didn't like putting Bolsonaro in jail in Brazil, if he didn't like the free speech law in The UK, he would do something.

我认为对此加以约束是好事。

And I think reigning that in was good.

你觉得加以约束是好事吗？

You think reigning that in was good?

是的。

Yeah.

你可以把重点放在国家安全上，这没问题，但不该是每一种个人好恶都算数。

You focus it on national security, that's fine, but not necessarily every whim that you have.

我认为，整个事情中真正奇怪的是

That was, I think really what seemed odd about the whole

我要问你一个疯狂的问题。

I'm gonna ask you a crazy question.

这甚至不在话题范围内。

This wasn't even on the topic.

汤姆，这涉及到你们两位，你是个国家安全专家。

Tom, this goes to both of you and you're a national security guy.

你获得了国家安全学士和硕士学位。

You got your bachelor's and master's in national security.

所以你对此的看法是，如果裁决回来，他们说：好吧，你根本无权对这些国家征收关税，最高法院以6比3判你败诉。

So your thoughts on this as well is, so if the ruling comes back and they say, well, yeah, you never had the authority to put the tariffs on all these countries, Six to three Supreme Court's against you.

真的吗？

Really?

是的。

Yeah.

我任命的另外两个人也是吗？

Even the other two that I appointed?

是的，他们也判你败诉。

Yes, they also ruled against you.

什么？

What?

所以我任命了他们，但他们却判我败诉？

So I put them there, but they're ruling against me?

是的。

Yes.

明白了。

Got it.

好吧。

All right.

但你只要让国会通过就行了。

But all you have to do is put Congress it to get it passed.

没问题。

No problem.

猜猜怎么着？

Well, guess what?

如果你要派遣B2或B52轰炸机去摧毁伊朗的六个核设施。

If you're sending B2 or B52 bombers to go help blow up the six nuclear sites Iran has.

有些人说，你也需要先获得国会批准。

Some people are saying, you also need to run that through Congress first.

明白吗？

Okay?

还有人说，你需要取得这个批准。

There's also a, hey, you need to get that approval.

嘿，我们对伊朗所做的一切，也需要国会批准。

Hey, the stuff that we're doing with Iran, you also need Congress approval.

这难道不是意味着，在你做出这样的决定之前，都必须先走程序吗？

Doesn't that make everything that before you make a decision like that you have to go?

那么，你如何让敌人无法预测你的行动？

Then how do you become unpredictable to the enemy?

总统需要具备不可预测性这一要素。

An element that the president needs to be unpredictable.

相反，情况却是：嘿，各位，我们明天晚上6点就要攻击你们了。

Instead, it's like, no, hey guys, we're about to attack you at 6PM tomorrow night.

做好准备。

Be ready.

我们就要来了。

We're coming to you.

这个论点对伊朗也同样适用吗？

Can that argument be made for that as well with Iran?

这就是为什么豁免权如此重要。

It's why the immunity was important.

这非常重要。

It's it's very important.

行政命令正是总统实现你所描述行为的机制。

The the executive order is the mechanism for the president to do exactly what you're talking about.

然而，这些行为是有局限的。

However, there are these limits.

事实上，我认为是梅西和罗·康纳，罗，你能查一下吗？他们正在推动一项战争权力决议，迫使总统就这类事项寻求国会批准，正如你所指出的那样。

As a matter of fact, I believe it was Massey and Ro Khanna, Rob, can you look this up, who are pushing a war powers resolution to force the president to come to congress to get approval for things like that exactly as as you point out.

但就在一周前，梅西和罗·康纳还在谈论推动相关举措，以确保总统必须经过国会批准。

But it was mass Massey and Ro Khanna a week ago talking about pushing something forward so that the president has to go through congress.

是的。

Yep.

战争权力法第五条，关于未经授权的敌对行动。

Section five of war powers, right, from unauthorized hostilities.

这是由康纳支持的梅西提出的。

And this is Massey supported by Khanna.

所以他们在做同样的事情。

So they're doing the same thing.

他们正试图推动这项决议，帕特，这正是你所说的。

They're trying to get this resolution started Pat exactly what you're talking about.

他们说：嘿，你之前需要来找我们，现在你必须通过这个途径来找我们。

They're saying hey, you needed to come to us from this so now you need to come for us through this.

但人们不理解的是，领导者必须具有不可预测性。

But what people don't understand, leaders have to be unpredictable.

领导者必须采取行动。

Leaders have to take measures.

现在，作为三军统帅，总统有权采取多种军事行动。

Now the president as commander in chief is allowed to do a variety of things militarily.

他拥有行政命令的权力。

And he has the executive order pen.

这些正是他能够这样行动的依据。

Those are the things where he can act this way.

不过，还是回到你那里？

Back to you though?

国会能不断回来说，像兰德·保罗说得对吗？

Can congress keep coming back and say, like Rand Paul was right.

一个月前我还和兰德·保罗在一起。

I was with Rand Paul a month ago.

就在那儿。

There it is.

兰德·保罗说，嘿。

And Rand Paul says, hey.

2月19日。

February 19.

是的。

Yeah.

兰德·保罗说，嘿，你知道吗，你有没有意识到，如果我说，你觉得最高法院会裁定他败诉还是怎样？

Rand Paul says, hey, you know, you realize if I said, so do you think Supreme Court's gonna rule against him or form?

如果他们遵循法律，他们会在关税问题上裁定他败诉。

If they follow the law, they're gonna rule against him on the tariffs.

他一个月前就说了这话。

He said this a month ago.

结果他是对的。

He ended up being right.

那么，现在同样的论点能否用在他对伊朗的任何行动上呢？

So now can the same argument be made against anything he does with Iran?

如果他们对伊朗采取的行动出了问题怎么办？

What if what if they do what they're doing to Iran and something doesn't go right?

他们还能回来说，嘿，你违背了宪法吗？

Can they come back and say, hey, you went against the constitution?

我认为你需要十二月。

I think you need December

这是《战争权力法案》，而这是汗和马西尔在伊朗潜在的欧盟袭击迫近时，威胁要就此事进行投票。

This is the War Powers Act, and this is what Khan and Massier threatened the fort of force a vote on Iran as prospective EU attack looms.

他们就是在测试这一点。

That's what they're testing.

他们正在测试《战争权力法案》。

They're testing War Powers Act.

你为什么不测试呢？

Why wouldn't you test it?

我的意思是

What I'm saying is

如果你反对他，你就会去测试它。

If you're against him, you would test it.

这会把它推回最高法院吗？

So does this push it back to Supreme Court?

它会回到国会吗？

Does it go back to Congress?

我的意思是，每个人总是在争夺权力。

I mean, everybody's always fighting for power.

所以，你知道，总统想要更多权力。

So there's, you know, the president wants more power.